Our people say that there is nothing wrong with a man irrigating his farmland, provided he is not fetching the water from his neighbour’s water pot, or rechanneling the village stream. Our people also say that the beauty of community farming is that every member of the community benefits from every aspect of the enterprise, as distinct from when one kindred or the other is made to suffer unduly. All must pay attention to the soil type, the topography, the water sources, the seasonal water availability and priority crop types.

Put more simply, to construct a dam in order to get more water, or to draw water for irrigation, is to do something that will invariably affect the lives of folks living downstream. If you do not pay attention to the latter fact, but focus instead on the episodic benefits of the water you are drawing to create a haven of greenery elsewhere, all will not be well in the long run.

Take, for instance, the case of someone who wants to travel from Abuja to Taraba State today. He flies to Yola and then makes a four-hour road trip to Jalingo, the state capital.  While on the road journey, he is counting how many bridges are spanning dry rivers. Yes, dry rivers without any water at all. And these rivers were not always like that. The story is the same in many parts of northern Nigeria.

If you think it is a northern Nigeria problem, then head southwards from Abuja by road. Get to Lokoja and drive past it. Continue all the way beyond Ajaokuta to Anyigba. While you are at it, count the number of rivers that are now tiny streams in the middle of a vast plains. Also check out how many rivers that once spanned some 100 to 200 meters of water across are now without water during the dry season. Even at the peak of the rainy season, they are pitiful shadows of what they used to be.

Or would you rather have us talk about the Onitsha end of the River Niger? It used to be a massive body of water. Not anymore! But more of that later.

These were the thoughts on my mind when, a few days ago, I watched the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) flag off the Irrigate Nigeria Project. The initiative is designed to ensure that farmers in some parts of the country achieve three farming cycles every year. Such a transformative endeavour is expected to positively impact food availability, by enhancing mechanized outcomes at TIAMIN Rice Farm, Udubo, Gamawa Local Government Area of Bauchi State.

The projected short, medium, and long-term benefits would include job creation, increased agricultural output and overall improvement in national productivity. No one can fail to see the good intentions behind this project, especially as a response to the problem of food insecurity.

This good initiative, which is being jointly implemented by NASENI and the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Development Fund (RHIDF), needs a thoroughgoing holistic approach, so that the gains would be lasting ones. Since it is being executed with the participation of the private sector, there is need to ascertain the critical roles of the Environment Ministry, Nigeria Inland Waterways authority (NIWA) and the Ministry of Water resources in all of this.

Let us note that NASENI’s Executive Vice Chairman (EVC) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr. Khalil Suleiman Halilu, said at the flag-off that the initiative is capable of revolutionizing agriculture in Nigeria. In his own words, “…the goal of Irrigate Nigeria is to transform Nigeria’s agriculture through the provision of sustainable irrigation systems that empower farmers to achieve year-round farming, and by extension, increased productivity and reduce food prices”. That is correct.

Simply put, this project is a way of making modern irrigation techniques, and also modern equipment for dry-season farming, available to farmers. The major pillars of the project include the following, among others: (1) The deployment of centralised NASENI irrigation systems to support farming clusters in the participating communities, (2) The provision of input – enhanced seeds, (3) The provision of fertilizers, (4) Technical support to the participating farmers.

With the project’s goal of enhancing food security, by equipping farmers with modern irrigation systems and dry season farming tools, the ultimate goal is obviously year-round productivity; as earlier stated. The project is planned to run on a commercial basis, and there’s the worry. Will the farmers not be overburdened?

NASENI says no, promising that “… the repayments by farmers for the support being provided will be in the form of convenient portions of their harvests, like rice paddy”. The repayments are to be “…pooled into a strategic food reserve that will help to stabilize commodity prices, and also be available for institutional sale and for export”.

All said, no one can fault the good intentions, projected positive outcomes and the expected impact on food availability and food prices.

But, going back to the issues with which we flagged off today’s conversation, there are concerns which must be put on the table here. I refer us to two articles which appeared on this page within the last seven years. The first, titled “Onitsha Port and its Enemies” came out on February 5, 2017. The second, titled “Onitsha Port and Other Matters”, was published here on April 13 2024.  The two articles emphasized the desirability of an inland port in Onitsha, to ease trade for the South East trades and businessmen, while pointing out the challenge of water availability.

The latter of the two articles said: “One of the major overlooked, and largely unacknowledged, problem is the probability of not ever really getting enough water for the primary business of a port. You need water for a river port and the Onitsha end of the river Niger does not have enough. Dredging is a good idea, but it will give you a bigger ditch and wipe out the means of livelihood of water dependent local economies”.

The article continued: “All things considered, the challenges that come to mind regarding the proposed Onitsha River Port are: (1) How the river dams along the Niger, Benue and their many tributaries have reduced available water at onitsha by over 68%; (2) Possibly unrealistic projections about the prospects of the project; (3) The credibility of some of the existing Environmental Impact Assessment (AIE) reports, especially against the background of climate change and other environmental factors; among other factors”.

The same article pointed out that the dams built across the rivers Niger and Benue, and their tributaries, over the years have reduced the overall water volume. You now have small sand islands, and unprecedented siltation, at the Onitsha end of the river. That is why the NASENI Irrigate Nigeria project must be approached by working in sync with the Federal Ministries of Agriculture and Natural Resources Environment, blue economy and the Nigeria Inland Waterways authority (NIWA).

The current global response to the devastating impact of dams and water diversion on people and the environment within the past 60 years has been overwhelming. We all know that dams have altered ecosystems, ruined food chains and obliterated local economies for hundreds of thousands of kilometres of waterways all over the world. That is Dams and diversion or all, or part of, natural bodies of water, for electricity, farming, etc.

That article of last April said: “It is on record, for instance, that massive fish populations were killed on the Snake River, Idaho, in the US by dam construction; leading to the decimation of salmon species, among others. An Idaho State Senator, Frank Church, who originally supported dam building later rose in defense of natural waterways and spoke against dams. It was the same Frank Church who, after he saw the damage to the environment, eventually wrote the Wild and Scientific Rivers Act, passed in 1968”.

Over 22,000 kilometers of free-flowing rivers in the US are protected by Frank Church`s Act as I write. Meanwhile our natural waters and waterways are available for all comers. The fate of communities displaced by dams all over Nigeria today is rarely a topical issue, yet it is a real problem that has lingered for decades in many places.

The concern about water and free waterways is such that the world is focusing on transboundary cooperation between nations for conscious and deliberate management of the ecosystem and water volume throughout the length of major rivers. Are we doing the same in our country? The conflict between China and Thailand over development on the Lancang/Mekong River says a lot about what is going on all over the world in connection with waterways today.

To think that the government of New Zealand has gone so far as to “recognize” the Whanganui river by giving it the same constitutional rights as a person? This was done as a way of showing that free-flowing rivers have great impact on food security, water access, biodiversity conservation and propagation of the overall global ecology.

All said, NASENI must be sensitive to the impact of its new project on local economies outside the farming communities from where, and to where, the waters are coming. It must also be seen to be working in sync the Nigeria Inland Waterways Authority, the Ministries of Environment, Water resources and Blue Economy on this initiative. That is the only way to derive, and maintain sustainable gains in the Irrigate Nigeria project.

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NASENI must be sensitive to the impact of its new project on local economies outside the farming communities from where, and to where, the waters are coming. It must also be seen to be working in sync the Nigeria Inland Waterways Authority, the Ministries of Environment, Water resources and Blue Economy on this initiative. That is the only way to derive, and maintain sustainable gains in the Irrigate Nigeria project.

He already, for a few years back, had had his flight ticket tucked in his briefcase, or so it seemed. He was wont to say that he could be called away from out of the materiality of this world at any time and the baton would be passed to the younger generation to face the challenges of pulling Nigeria out of the swamp. He collected his boarding pass and his flight was called on Friday, 14 February, 2025. At his passing, he would like to leave a legacy of fairness and equity in national affairs, it was all he struggled for all his life. I am referring to Chief Ayo Adebanjo. The colossus fought to his last breath what he believed in, characteristically without mincing words. To have a clear picture of who Chief Adebanjo was, it became necessary to go memory lane by digging into the archives. By so doing ,we refresh memories of the activities of the titan and of his convictions. Following is the characterisation of him this column published on 12 April, 2018 nearly seven years ago, on the occasion of his 90th birthday. If death had tarried for just two more months Adebanjo would have been 97 next month. The said article is here reproduced:

If Chief Ayo Adebanjo was waiting for a day of redefining who he is and an endorsement as leader and the war general of the South West people, last Thursday it was. It was the day of intrinsic reward and extrinsic acknowledgement of him as leader and hero. The true leader of the Yoruba goes beyond symbolism. He must be a proven embodiment of principles; it is he whose adherence to truth is pasted on his forehead. He must be unswerved by the temptation or sway of temporary gains or lucre of office. He must be able to step out without consideration for self. There must be no gaps between utterances and actions which must be taken with absolute disregard to personal consequences as long as these are driven by a quest for truth, justice and fairness. For Ayo Adebanjo, the Yoruba leader must be able to distinguish between the Jew and the Gentile. Then the question arises: where do you stand? Are you a Jew or a Gentile? You cannot be both. With him there is no question of where he stands at all times.

On Tuesday, it was a sea of heads. The church was filled to overflowing and so were the reception grounds. A normally dandy fellow even if modest, his influence on the crescendo capping a week-long preparation for the D-Day was unmistakable. Everything bore his signature for taste. The St. Phillips Anglican Church was sparkling with new paint. The whole village, Isanya Ogbo-Ijebu saw the 90th birthday of their worthy son as their own. They wore a special dress of green fabric interspersed with lines of subdued brown. For the people of his birth place, it was celebration galore, all the way, dancing and rejoicing outside the huge and expansive reception tent. The signpost to the village was artistically done and it read AA@90. The neat appearance of the village testified to Adebanjo’s intolerance of ugliness. It was a different kind of fresh air characteristic of unspoilt countryside. Adebanjo’s own compound on which is seated his modest bungalow is not a jungle of concrete. Put in charge of the arrangement was Dr. Yemi Ogunbiyi, an animated fellow who makes friends easily with his warm-heartedness and who equally cares about standards. For Ogunbiyi, there are no half-measures. Whether at Harbour Port at Victoria Island or Isanya Ogbo-Ijebu his signature for taste and standards was boldly written.

Present to grace the occasion were Adebanjo’s comrades in the unrelenting drive for a new, united and vibrant restructured Nigeria for meaningful, self-evident, measurable and sustainable development and growth. His colleagues in the handshake across the Niger and across Benue to Benue Plateau were well represented. Step forward and be counted amidst clapping, the nationalist Chief Edwin Clarke; Chief John Nwodo, the national president of Ohanaeze Ndigbo; and the leader of the Middle Belt Forum, Dr. Bala Takaya who succeeded Prof. Jerry Gana. Former Commonwealth Secretary, Chief Emeka Anyoku, was in attendance. So was Dan Suleiman who was in the trenches with Adebanjo in the NADECO days as head at the United Kingdom front.

The political leaders who numbered among the dignitaries were the Vice-President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo; Senator Ibikunle Amosun, Governor of Ogun State; Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, Governor of Osun State and Senator Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State. Former Governors Olusegun Osoba, Niyi Adebayo and Gbenga Daniel were at the event. There as well were General Alani Akinrinade; Dr. Amos Akingba; Sam Amuka the Vanguard Publisher about whose writings in the days of yore Adebanjo spoke with nostalgia; public spirited Professor Pat Itomi; Pharmacist and politician Jimi Agbaje; Nike Akande, former Minister and until recently president, Lagos Chambers of Commerce; Dr. Tokunbo Awolowo-Dosunmu; chairman of Insight Communications, Biodun Sobanjo; Tunde Adelaja, chief executive officer of Rosabel; Lawyer Yemi Adefulu; Lawyer Ayanlaja; Dare Babarinsa and Gbenga Adefaye, both reputable and leading journalists; Lawyer Dipo Jimilehin; public affairs commentator Olu Ademulegun.

Predictably, it was a full house of Afenifere, the Yoruba socio-cultural group, but more well known as a cultural cum political vehicle to watch over the interest of the Yoruba people. Leading Afenifere was its leader, Reuben Fasoranti; there were Chief Olu Falae; Professor Banji Akintoye, Chief Femi Okunrounmu; Chief Akinfenwa; indefatigable National Publicity Secretary Yinka Odumakin and a host of other key members of the association. The family of Chief Adebanjo’s ‘twin brother’, Sir Olaniwun Ajayi, was prominently represented by Professor Konyin Ajayi and Dr. Ajayi, his brother. It was an exceedingly colourful occasion with Bisi Olatilo as the anchor man.

Chief Adebanjo has come a long way, pressing, pushing and advocating the interest of the people of South West. His autobiography titled Say It As It Is captures Adebanjo in his unveiled essence. His political education began in Awolowo School of Principles. The products are known as Awoists. In that school, unremitting application to a just cause is a credo and loyalty without extenuation is the byword. Constant reading, education and re-education is the culture. You must be informed. You must read. So was it that after Adebanjo became the Organising Secretary of Action Group, it did not take him long to realise that the path he had chosen to be in the image of his hero and mentor was strewn with thorns and broken bottles. To successfully walk the path, you must be independent and the soles of the shoes impregnably fortified. You could not be fighting the same establishment from which you would turn round to look for financial succour either as an employee or for an appointive political office. That was the reasoning. You must be free to give expression to the courage of your convictions. You must be prepared to go to jail and return to don your wig and gown as long as it was not for fraud or other crimes for which anyone would know shame. But for your political beliefs and activism, your bathroom kits must be ever ready, and Kirikiri was expected to take note as you could be a guest there any day, at any time! And, indeed, these defined Adebanjo’s journey to reckoning and celebration among the Yoruba. He was a few times a tenant in one jail house or the other. These are credentials an Awoist must be ready to brandish.

The need for independence and unhindered political pursuits for the wellbeing of his people made him to quickly tear off and, it drove him to the United Kingdom to read law. The last time he was locked up was during the Abacha Administration. Guess over what! It was over the death of Kudirat Abiola for whose husband’s mandate he and his leaders were unrelenting. Again, guess who were locked up with him: the indefatigable leader of Afenifere and NADECO, Abraham Adesanya; Solanke Onasanya was asked to be reporting to the police. He was spared of the jail house because his age was put into consideration. Olu Falae was younger, he was clamped into jail for the same cause. The mistake the Administration made was that it left Bola Ige free and he roamed far and wide, He was not locked up with them. He had had his own fair share of prison experience during Buhari’s first coming. Abacha did not reckon with the fact that Bola Ige was the spokesman for the Yoruba and their cause with almost matchless gift of the gab. Like everyone else from the Awolowo clan, he was bold, he was articulate, he was unsparing with his tongue. Promptly, Bola Ige went to court to free his colleagues from Abacha’s notorious gulag. In 1962, Adebanjo was among Awolowo’s associates wanted to face treasonable felony charge. He and Sam Ikoku fled to Ghana to take refuge under Kwame Nkrumah who shared the same political philosophy with them and their party. In his absence, his father was arrested in his place.

Adebanjo is a repository of the history of the political development of our country. He would overwhelm you with what meetings were held, where and on what date. Who were those present and who said what! He would then recap almost word for word what Chief Awolowo said on the occasion. Not surprising, he at a time took residence in Chief Awolowo’s house at Ikenne where he sat at the sage’s feet to learn wisdom and take in sufficient political education and what holding onto principles means, bearing in mind that the battle might continue after Awolowo’s would have left them. He wanted to be at the beck and call of his leader. He was a member of the board of directors of the Nigerian Tribune. Therefore, what we see in him today is a product of that long tutelage and respectable closeness to his mentor and leader; loyalty, bluntness, unwavering adherence to principles and decency. He is confident but could be combative and abrasive as he does not suffer fools gladly. For his arguments, he comes prepared and he delivers his punches with all the strength he can muster. Indeed, he is never non-plussed and quick witted when it comes to how Nigerians should stay together. For him, there must be an educated debate and negotiation. He would not tolerate dictatorship. Which is why Jonathan’s document from the 2014 National Conference is one that holds the key for enduring value for the progress and happiness of all within the Nigerian frontiers.

His unswerving adherence to principles almost brought him on a collision course with his colleagues on who should be the governorship candidate for Lagos State in 1998 in readiness for 1999. Because Afenifere was just out of the war with Abacha and frayed nerves fairly massaged and soothed by Abdulsalami Abubakar, they did not know enough about their followers nor did they have a clear idea of who among them were loyal and tested enough to be trusted with the all-important office of the Governor of Lagos State. They first mulled the possibility of Ganiyu Dawodu occupying the coveted position. Dawodu declined the offer to fly the AD flag; he suggested that Afenifere should go for a young man who was full of energy and was well educated. Lagos then became a test case. Following unsavoury developments at some point, Sir Olaniwun Ajayi never missed to thrust needle in the wrist of Dawodu. Dawodu who was the Afenifere and AD leader in Lagos was rooting for Funsho Williams and the report the Afenifere received from him was that Funsho Williams won the governorship primaries. Chief Adebanjo argued forcibly that Funsho Williams was not part of the struggle and not much was known about his antecedents. But Bola Tinubu they knew. At the time, Funsho Williams was just coming out of the civil service.

Adebanjo said Tinubu had thrown his all into the struggle, by way of finance and activism, at home and after fleeing into exile. While in exile, he was granting interviews to further the cause. His home in London became a refuge for some fleeing activists and journalists some of whom he gave pocket money. The powerful argument resonated with his colleagues more so that it bordered on loyalty, commitment and antecedents, factors on which Afenifere put a great deal of premium. Adebanjo carried the day. For the group, party is supreme. A candidate goes into office to implement party programmes sold to the electorate. The candidate must, therefore, be one that is persuaded on party programme and must be known. He must have antecedents and must be loyal and be prepared to submit to party discipline.

There was also respect for hierarchy in their group. With the sensing of imminent departure from earthly life of Chief Adekunle Ajasin, leadership was transferred to Abraham Adesanya who himself had been a long runner by the side of Awolowo. He was one of his defence counsel during the treasonable felony trial. He was not just also blunt, but versed in the traditional ethical imperatives and thought flow patterns of their people, punctuating and elucidating his pronouncements with proverbs. After Adesanya, the mantle of leadership went to Chief Reuben Fasoranti. Because age has caught up with Fasoranti, Adebanjo became the face of Afenifere, speaking and travelling, travelling and speaking. He is ready to take anybody on, eyeball to eyeball. His friends cut across all age groups. He is at home in the company of the youth with jokes and his sunny smiles and hearty laughter, and lit-up youthful face as he is in the company of octogenarians. Of course, one cannot play his kind role without attracting criticisms. His critics accuse him of rigidity and that he is unable to distinguish between flexibility to reach objective goal and a craving for opportunism. Their illustration, for example, is that if you are driving to Ibadan from Lagos and a huge tree is found to have fallen across the road and you do not have an axe to cut it and free the road, the sensible thing would be to think of an alternative road which means you turn back and take Abeokuta or Ijebu-Ode and you get to Ibadan the same destination.

Adebanjo is not averse to flexibility as long as the goal is not negotiable. But his experience is that those who sought such flexibility without keeping the goal sacrosanct because of lack of strength of character had wandered into irreversibly into what he calls wilderness. When he speaks like that your mind races to the days of AD which was soon to be engrossed in crisis and Adesanya was preoccupied with settling them.

Adebanjo loves Nigeria but would not surrender his Yorubaness. Even then it should not be at the expense of others and others, too, in pursuit of their interests should do so but not at the expense of their fellow nationalities. He believes that Nigeria of our dreams can never arise if it is not restructured. His argument is that the lighter a burden the easier it is to carry. The Federal Government, according to him, is overloaded. If the zones and states share in the burden the lighter it would become and the faster the movement of the country on the path of development and modernity. Chief Awolowo had said that a unitary form of government in a country of diverse peoples and nationalities with their cultures breeds envy and unending hostilities among the component parts. Restructuring of Nigeria, for Adebanjo, is a task to which he is totally committed. His pains and lament today at the age of 90 is absence of sufficient number of youths with the right political education, who are armed with history and who are endued the strength of character to resist opportunism. His hope has been such youths would emerge to whom his generation would gladly hand over the nation, in the quest and battle for equality before the law, equity and justice for all.

Those who gathered on Tuesday to pay homage and celebrate Adebanjo could not but go away with a deep impression that it is good to be good. It is eternally rewarding to be selfless. Adebanjo is no doubt appreciated not just by only his people but by a great many from across the country for his doggedness and selflessness in the pursuit of their happiness and fulfilment. There were drinks and the comestibles were inexhaustible. It was his glorious day.

All the foregoing was captured seven years ago. Given the state in which the world is now, we must have people like him to keep evil at bay until the ongoing waves of Light purification on earth reach all and sundry—all mankind! I believe the multitude that will gather at Isanya Ogbo-Ijebu in early May to mourn and bid him farewell on his continuing journey in the beyond will even be more. Adebanjo was full of love and he had an acute sense of justice. Nothing changed in this his pursuit of these virtues up to his last moment on earth. He was ever set to rise in the defence of these. He lived an eventful and remarkable life.

‘Money illusion’, in Economics, refers to the tendency of people to confuse the nominal value of money (its face value) with its real value (its purchasing power). In other words, people tend to think that a certain amount of money has the same value over time, even if the purchasing power of the money has massively decreased due to inflation.

This ‘illusion’ has, without exception, afflicted Nigeria’s entire political leadership and the officialdom in the past two years or so. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu exceptionally ‘showcased’ this affliction the other day during a national caucus meeting of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the state house, Abuja.

President Tinubu specifically told the state governors at the meeting that Federal allocations to their states have tripled under his administration. “If your state was receiving N40 billion before, you are now getting N120 billion,” the president said with aplomb. He ascribed the quantum increase in distributable funds among the three tiers of government (Federal, State, and Local) to ‘savings’ from fuel subsidy removal and other sources.

Tinubu went on to challenge the state governors to do more in their developmental strides in their various domains, since they now have more money in their hands. The President also urged the citizenry to refocus their expectations and requests to the sub-national governments, rather than piling up pressure only on the Federal Government.

No doubt, really, that the quantum of revenue shared by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) monthly among the three tiers of government has risen substantially (in nominal terms) under the Tinubu administration. Exactly ten years ago, in February 2015, FAAC shared only N500 billion among the three tiers of government; in February 2019, the sum of N660.37 billion was disbursed.

In March 2024, FAAC shared a total of N1.123 trillion, from a gross total revenue of N1.867 trillion. In December 2024, FAAC shared N1.424 trillion, from a gross total of N2.310 trillion, to the three tiers of government.

But as the distributable amount by FAAC was increasing, from hundreds of billions of naira as of 2015 and 2019 (as shown above) to trillions by 2024, inflation and exchange rates maintained a similar pattern. While the rate of inflation was at single digit level of 8.4 per cent in February 2015, by December 2024, it had hit 34.80 per cent—an almost five times rise in about ten years.

Similarly, while in February 2015, the naira to dollar exchange rate was N198/US$, by end-December 2024, the rate was N1,535/US$. This is about eight times crash in value of naira during the period. Even in the nearer term of May 2023, the average exchange rate of the naira per US dollar (in the official window) was about N460/US$, but deteriorated to N1535/US as of end-December 2024.

From another perspective, while the price of fuel (Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) was about N185/liter as of May 2023, by end-December 2024, the price was over N1000/liter—a jump of N815 per liter in just 20 months. So, what one could buy at less than N200 in 2023, by 2024, he has to pay over N1000 to buy the same item. Simple!

Again, in the first half of 2023, the price of a 50kg bag of cement (of various makes) was about N2000—N3000, but at present, the price hovers around N10,000. So have the prices of other building materials gone up. The same pattern applies to food items: rice, beans, onions, yam, maize, cocoyam, cassava, name it.

So, what is the worth of the trillions of naira being shared by FAAC? In the states, depending on the location, the developmental projects that could be executed with the few billions of naira a few years ago, can no longer be done with the hundreds of billions being received from FAAC today.

In real terms, therefore, all tiers of government in Nigeria have been getting poorer in the past 20 months. After all, the Nobel laureate in Economics, John Maynard Keynes says that the value of money is determined by what it can buy, rather than by any intrinsic value it may possess. Also, another renowned Economist, Milton Freidman says “The importance of the value of money is not the value itself, but the purchasing power it represents."

What purchasing power does the naira represent today? This is why the Organized Labor (Nigeria Labor Congress & Co.) got the short end of the stick, when they took the N70,000 minimum wage. No sooner they signed the deal with the Federal Government than they realized that they had shot themselves in the foot. Labor was focusing on nominal wage increases rather than real wage increases.

Seventy thousand naira is only worth what it can buy: not up to one 50kg of any brand of rice in any Nigerian market. Today, few months after the minimum wage deal, Labor has practically gone back to the trenches—fighting for more increases in (minimum) wage.

The ‘money illusion’ is also best illustrated in the fact that between 2024 and 2025, the Federal Government had to double its budget. While Nigeria’s total budget for 2024 was N27.5 trillion, the one for 2025 stands at N54.99 trillion. This doubling of the size of the budget just in a space of one year is unprecedented; it vividly shows how fast the purchasing power of the naira is crashing.

In 2022, Nigeria’s total budget was N17 trillion, and in 2023, it was N21.82 trillion—a modest difference of N3.82 trillion between the two years. But between 2024 and 2025, the figure doubled! This ‘ballooned’ figure gives the gullible public the impression of a good public finance outlook, and a false sense of comfort.

It goes without saying, however, that ‘money illusion’ exerts a number of negative effects on an economy, including the distorted impression of ‘abundance’ of money. It leads to poor financial decisions by all economic agents—as they cannot accurately take into account the effects of inflation on their money.

‘Money illusion’ leads to sub-optimal allocation of resources, as people invest in assets that appear to have high nominal returns but low real returns. Thus, even as the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Treasury Bills issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have been at (high) yields of 20-22 per cent, their real returns are negative. This is because the subsisting rate of inflation remains much higher.

At virtually all levels, many developmental initiatives have turned ‘white elephant projects’ or totally abandoned due to the crashing purchasing power of annual budgetary provisions year-in-year-out. Government officials merely move around bandying the humongous sums in billions and trillions that have been ‘spent’ on various projects.

Although there are several other factors that contribute to the abandonment of projects, the fast crashing real value of budgetary allocations remains critical. The hyperinflationary trend in Nigeria, triggered by fuel subsidy removal, and the full floatation of the naira which led to its sudden massive devaluation have combined to make projects planning and execution traumatic.

Distorted budget cycle, now entrenched by the Tinubu administration, has come to worsen the uncertainty created by ‘money illusion.’ Rather than having the annual budget run from January to December, the cycle has now also turned unpredictable under the current administration. This has resulted into several reviews of projects (with contract sums rising), and rolling them over through many (annual) budgets. And many of the projects are eventually abandoned!     

Beyond propaganda, however, does the Government really have so much money for its programs and activities? If the Government has so much money (as the trillions of naira shows), why is it going cap in hand, borrowing money from everywhere across the globe? Why is the Government imposing all manner of taxes, duties and levies on (mostly hitherto free) public goods, services and utilities?

As the purchasing power of the citizenry is fast crashing, courtesy of rising inflation, Government directly or through its agencies keeps hiking existing tax rates or imposing new ones. For instance, in the contentious tax bill before the National Assembly, the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate is being raised from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent. Being a consumption tax, hike in VAT rate automatically translates to ‘milking’ the consumer the more.

‘Money illusion’ has, in a way, led the CBN to construe the ravaging hyperinflationary trend in the country as a monetary phenomenon, where ‘too much money is chasing few goods’. Yet, the runaway inflation is more of a ‘cost push’ problem, because of the rising cost of all productive activities—including ‘imported components’ of such costs.

The apex bank believed there has been an excess of money in circulation, leading to increased demand for a ‘limited’ supply of goods and services. With this as a background, the CBN has been taking a tight monetary stance, including raising the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to highest level in recent years: from 18 per cent in June 2023 to 27.50 per cent at end-2024. An almost 10 per cent hike in 18 months.

The CBN also raised the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to ‘drain’ cash from the commercial banks, and weaken their credit creation capacity. But this, plus the high MPR, raised the cost of credit to private sector operators—and indeed, pushed loans beyond the reach of most businesses—especially the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).

Apparently ensconced in the so-much-money backdrop, the CBN has been issuing bonds and Treasury Bills at mouthwatering rates—attracting both local and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)—all to the detriment of the real sector in the country. The FPIs, as ‘hot money’ have been flying in and out of the country at indeterminate paces, and sustaining the macroeconomic volatility.

Apart from the CBN, almost without exception, all other Federal Government agencies have continued to impose or hike charges for their services to the populace. And they are being celebrated for the trillions of naira they are raking in for the Government. Nigeria Custom Service (NCS), Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS), Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), among others, have been exceeding their ‘revenue targets’—leaving the citizenry poorer.

These huge (unexpected) revenues from these agencies, as explained by President Tinubu, were what moved him to go back to the National Assembly for a top-up to the 2025 Appropriation Bill, as it was undergoing legislative consideration. This unusual step shows that Mr. President believes that the bigger the money budgeted, the more ‘successful’ the budget would be. And we ask: where are the impacts of the previous budgets?

By the same deduction, the so-called ‘more money’ in the hands of the state governors does not amount to much in real terms. So, rather than flaunting the ‘fat’ FAAC monthly allocations, the Federal Government should begin to address the root causes of the crashing purchasing power. Why has inflation been rising, and remained high even after the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

After rebasing, the CPI—which measures inflation rate—was brought down from end-2024 level of 34.80 per cent to 24.48 per cent in January 2025. The rebasing which amounted to a mere change in the methodology used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), led to the ‘drop’ in the CPI value.

It will therefore be another type of illusion for the Federal Government to begin to celebrate the so-called drop in inflation rate. After all, the 24.48 per cent for January 2025 is far above the sub-Saharan Africa average of five per cent (‘Africa Pulse’ report) in 2024. And, in the advanced economies (UK and US, for instance), inflation rate is hardly above three per cent.

In dealing with the ‘money illusion’ challenge, therefore, the ball is squarely in the court of the Federal Government. This is because whatever is the state of the Nigerian economy today is largely policy-induced: mainly unintended upshots. So, let’s begin to get real!

• The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com(08033075697) SMS only