OTHERS' VIEWS

OTHERS' VIEWS

You were the deputy speaker. Then, you became the first female speaker. And now you are the first speaker to become a deputy speaker in Africa. Madam, it’s not your fault but you need to quit. Your middle name is not Rollercoaster 

When Obasa was removed, lawmakers said he was corrupt. If it were in the 18th century, they would have looked for a guillotine. They shouldn’t do this to themselves. It’s a most despicable capitulation. They said he built a gate with millions upon millions. They said he was a bad example to our children. Following the many vociferous allegations of corruption and high-handedness, 32 out of the 40 Lagos lawmakers voted to remove him. A removal can’t be more unanimous. They said his removal was good riddance to bad rubbish. That was last month. 

Now, the same Obasa has returned. And rather than ignominy, he has cornered glory. You have succumbed to intimidation and resigned to allow the perfidy. You can call it loyalty to your party leaders. You can call it party supremacy. Beautiful euphemism. Others call it Baba sope.  You were almost an Amazon. Sadly, you all turned out lily-livered. 

Collectively, you lamented the invasion of the hallowed legislature by the DSS. Was that your leaders in trying to whip delinquent children into line? The DSS later said they had come to provide security. But you knew what they came to do. And you and your colleagues swore to resist the transgressions. How, then, did you chicken out without a whimper? 

You had sneered as Obasa besieged the legislature with a gang of policemen to forcibly enter it. Do your leaders behave like area boys? Do they have any regard for the rule of law? If this was just leaders persuading followers, why the easy recourse to state banditry? All the lawmakers pointedly condemned both invasions as rape and vowed to resist the affront to democracy. Irked by the abomination, the people stood to support you against your oppressors. Then you all chickened out. The international community is amused. 

When Obasa returned from overseas and started to thump his chest, many had feared for you. Because if the drummer of the strange rhythm he was dancing to was in a bush in Abuja, then the entire House of Assembly would need courage to avoid humiliation. But you all rose to the occasion to a cost the filthy meddle some hands of the unseen intruder with moral defiance. And having announced your readiness to assert yourselves like free men and women who have broken their yoke, this capitulation is unpardonable cowardice. 

A man overruled an entire state legislature. In his youth, he had rebelled against autocracy. Now he is the Citadel, the fortress of feudalism. So he can send some oldmen to deliver an ultimatum to the lawmakers, to ask them to lick their vomitus. Rather than pack up and run away, if they were too weak to fight, the lawmakers sat and started to weep helplessly in the open. The same people who had collectively vowed to defend their dignity and democracy were cowering and crying like babies. They endured the torment of going through the gut-wrenching ritual of re-electing Obasa. None of them covered his head with a tattered basket and spat some inventive at the oppressor. None of them had the balls to walk away. They were scared of the godfather. 

Some said they were crying for you, Meranda. But nobody is deceived. They were reduced to houseboys. Presumptuous houseboys. They were made to re-elect Obasa, who they had deceived as unfit to lead. Meranda, you stepped out for him to step in. You need to step away. Your CV now reads like it was written in Oluwole. The centre of excellence has been defiled. It stinks 

Make no mistake, Madam deputy speaker, it’s not party supremacy. It’s party destitution. The party has been castrated. Otherwise, there is no manifestation of party supremacy greater than 75% of the legislators and their constituents have their way on who becomes speaker. The party can weigh in and influence outcomes. But the party cannot make an entire legislature swallow its vomitus in the open like this. The real party spoke through the legislators. But one man overruled the party. Party supremacy is not a nebulous concept which can be used to convert lawmakers into errand boys of the godfathers. It is not an autocratic spanner. It exists to foster inclusion and democratic participation and not install a civilian dictatorship through the backdoor. 

When you became speaker we saw you herd the lawmakers to the GAC to receive blessings. You said they blessed you. We said you were subjecting the legislative arm of government to the dictates of a cabal.  Now you know. That fanciful GAC is a device in the hands of one man to make his dictatorial control of the state look collegiate. The subterfuge has been exposed. The party is decidedly a one-man show. 

Madam, you surrendered the mandate of the people. You were not an acting speaker. Throw in the towel, madam. Your return to your old seat is a disservice to womanhood. You cannot endorse this shenanigan by playing the fool. Your dignity matters. Your health matters too. Your continued presence in that assembly will damage not just your mind but public health. The Return of Obasa is a head-spinning drama. Disappear from the House, madam.  So that the public can catch their breath. 

E jor ma. You are too legit not to quit. Eko oni ba je o

Former President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida’s autobiography triggered questions about the onomastic etymology of “Badamasi,” his former last name, which appears to share historical and semantic kinship with the Yoruba “Gbadamosi.” It also activated interest in his paternal heritage about which he has been strategically coy, which I captured in my last column.

Because I know that the best system of inquiry for facts is necessarily question-oriented, self-critical, and cumulative, I shared a perspective I had heard about the provenance of Badamasi but expressed doubts about its reliability and historical accuracy and invited further reflections from others.

Saturday Tribune editor Lasisi Olagunju took up the challenge and, relying on insights from the late Sheikh Adam Abdullah El-Ilory, proposed that Badamasi originated from Ghadames (sometimes spelled Ghadamis), a historic Berber town in what is now Libya.  

The town’s citizens are called Ghadamisi. It’s in line with the Middle Eastern practice of adding “i” to the end of the names of villages, towns, cities, and countries to form demonyms. Bukhari (which we domesticated as Buhari in Nigeria), for instance, means a native of the town of Bukhara, now in Uzbekistan, a West Asian nation that used to be a part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

Olagunju also referenced a fawningly Anglophilic, pro-colonial autobiography written in Arabic by a certain Abd Allah el-Ghadamisi, who arrived in Kano in 1903, titled, Your Humble Servant: The Memoirs of Abd Allah Al-Ghadamisi. He wondered whether this might be the book IBB mentioned as his grandfather's favorite and that inspired him to name his son after its author.

He then suggested that the Yoruba Gbadamosi is more faithful to what he thinks is the original form of the name than the Hausa Badamasi since the voiced labial-velar plosive “gb” found in many Niger Congo languages, including Yoruba, is closer to the voiced uvular fricative “gh” in Arabic.

Well, Olagunju’s proposition appears to suffer a factual collapse when it is burdened with the weight of historical, chronological, and even sociolinguistic evidence.

 First, anyone who reads Professor Razaq ʿDeremi Abubakre’s 2017 book chapter titled “Stefan Reichmuth’s Wanderings in Arabicized and Islamized Yorubaland” will come across an Ilorin Muslim scholar and poet by the name of Badamasi “from Ile Saura, Agbaji, Balogun Ajikobi Ward, who was one of the first people to produce Yoruba poetry in Arabic script (p.373).” He died around 1891.

This suggests that even Yoruba Muslims have borne the name Badamasi since at least the 1800s, years before Abd Allah el-Ghadamisi appeared in Kano.

Second, it is unlikely that Abd Allah el-Ghadamisi’s autobiography is the book IBB’s grandfather was fond of and that students of Arabic in Hausaland read for pedagogical and spiritual nourishment because the commentary on the book by Muhammad S. Umar and John O. Hunwick, which Olagunju references, describes the book as betraying “imperfect knowledge of written Arabic” and full of “simple errors of Arabic grammar.” 

Such a book can’t be a model that Islamic scholars venerate and teach. In any case, it wasn’t a piece of Islamic scholarship. The memoirs, Umar and Hunwick point out, “construct a discourse that portrays colonialism positively through a particularly laudatory proclamation of the good deeds of colonial authorities….”

Third, Olagunju’s claim that “Because, sometimes an author gets more famous than his work, al-Ghadamisi’s name appears to have overwhelmed the book’s title” doesn’t seem to be true. Only one copy of Abd Allah el-Ghadamisi’s book has survived, according to Umar and Hunwick. 

Fourth, although traders and Islamic scholars from Ghadames have lived in Hausa land since at least the 16th century, sociolinguistic evidence suggests that it is implausible for Hausa speakers to domesticate the Arabic phoneme “gh” to “b.”

When Hausa speakers borrow Arabic words with the phoneme “gh,” which doesn’t occur naturally in Hausa, they adapt it to "g" (and occasionally to “k”) but never “b.” So, it’s socio-linguistically improbable that Ghadamisi would ever become Badamasi to Hausa speakers. It would most likely be Gadamisi.

Now, what might be the root of Badamasi? Someone on Facebook by the name of M.Y. Kabara (I wonder if he is a progeny of the famous Nasiru Kabara family in Kano who died in my final year at Bayero University) pointed me to Arabic sources that seem to definitively show that the name Badamasi owes its presence in (northern) Nigerian Muslim onomastic universe to an Egyptian poet by the name of Muhammad bin Ahmed bin Ismail bin Ahmed Al-Sharaf Al-Badmasi Al-Masri. (Miṣr is the Arabic name for Egypt).

He was born in 1808 AH (equivalent to around 1405) in the small village of Badamas and died in Mecca at the age of 40. He was famous for a book of Arabic poetry he wrote in praise of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) titled al-Qasīdatul Mukhmasah, which is very popular with Sufi Muslims and Arabic students in (northern) Nigeria.

I am certain that it’s the book IBB’s grandfather loved so much that he named his son after it—like many people in the North did and still do.

 Kabara pointed out to me that because “every quintet in Arabic poetry can be called ‘mukhmasah,’” the book of poetry has come to be known by the name of its author to differentiate it from similar works.

 According to Dr. Ihab El-Sherbini, author of the book Stories of Mansoura's Streets, Badamas, the poet’s hometown, used to be called “Potamos," which means “river,” but that Copts (descendants of ancient Egyptians who are now mostly Christians that are associated with the Coptic Church) called it Badamos. After the Arab conquest of Egypt in the 7th century, Badamos evolved to Badamas.

Over time, the Badamas village ceased to be territorially independent. It’s now a neighborhood of the Egyptian city of Mansoura.

Based on this new knowledge, I am prepared to suggest that Gbadamosi and Badamasi are mere onomatological false friends, that is, they are names that sound alike but that are actually different and descended from different sources. 

 I suspect that the Yoruba Gbadamosi traces descent from Ghadamisi, most probably from Abdallāh b. Abī Bakr al-Ghadāmisī, a 17th-century Arabic poet and Islamic scholar born in Timbuktu who wrote the famous Manāhij al-Sālikīn fī Manāfiʿ al-Qurʾān al-Karīm (“Paths of the Seekers to the Benefits of the Noble Qur’an”) that is popular with West African Sufis. 

Curiously, the resolution of the etymology of IBB’s middle name coextends with new hints I’ve encountered about the probable ethnic identity of his paternal ancestry. 

The village of Kumurya in Kano where IBB told a biographer his paternal roots are located was founded by the Agalawa, a historical trading community in Hausaland, originally of Tuareg (Berber) stock who migrated into the Kano region in the 18th century. 

Though now fully assimilated as a sub-group of the Hausa people, the Agalawa trace their ancestry to nomadic Tuareg origins in the southern Sahara. I owe this insight to Rabiu Isah Hassan who first pointed it out to me on Facebook and provoked me to read further.

In his 2005 book titled Ecology and Ethnography of Muslim Trade in West Africa, Paul E. Lovejoy points out that early Agalawa immigrants in Hausaland occupied a lowly social status because “Most had been enslaved from Sudanese populations (p. 16).” They were derisively called “Bugaje” (is the famous Dr. Usman Bugaje of Agalawa origins?) as a collective plural and “Buzu” as a singular form.

Over time, they acculturated, dominated commerce, became prominent in Islamic scholarship, and have now become indistinguishable from the native Hausa population, except that they tend to have a lighter complexion than Hausa people, which causes many people to mistake them for Fulani. 

Is IBB aware of this history of his paternal ancestry but chose to conceal it for fear of exoticizing and alienating himself, especially in the eyes of southerners who tend to delegitimize people’s Nigerian origins when they find out that the ancestral origins of (mostly northern) people can be traced to spaces outside what is now Nigeria? 

No northerner would question the legitimacy of anyone’s Nigerianness because of the accident of the location of their distant ancestral roots. It's a consequence of the originary syncretism of modern northern identity. We are all mixed with all sorts of stemma from a vast array of places because we were never an insular, landlocked people.

Many of Kano’s prominent merchant dynasties, for example, have Agalawa roots, a famous example being the family of Alhaji Alhassan Dantata, who was West Africa’s richest man in the early 20th century. Since Aliko Dangote’s mother is from the Dantata family, it means he is at least half Agalawa. He himself might even be ancestrally Agalawa.

What’s there to conceal about this, especially because our heritage—ethnicity, linguistic group, even religious traditions—is merely incidental to us. We didn’t choose it, so there is no basis to be proud or ashamed of it. 

Our people say that there is nothing wrong with a man irrigating his farmland, provided he is not fetching the water from his neighbour’s water pot, or rechanneling the village stream. Our people also say that the beauty of community farming is that every member of the community benefits from every aspect of the enterprise, as distinct from when one kindred or the other is made to suffer unduly. All must pay attention to the soil type, the topography, the water sources, the seasonal water availability and priority crop types.

Put more simply, to construct a dam in order to get more water, or to draw water for irrigation, is to do something that will invariably affect the lives of folks living downstream. If you do not pay attention to the latter fact, but focus instead on the episodic benefits of the water you are drawing to create a haven of greenery elsewhere, all will not be well in the long run.

Take, for instance, the case of someone who wants to travel from Abuja to Taraba State today. He flies to Yola and then makes a four-hour road trip to Jalingo, the state capital.  While on the road journey, he is counting how many bridges are spanning dry rivers. Yes, dry rivers without any water at all. And these rivers were not always like that. The story is the same in many parts of northern Nigeria.

If you think it is a northern Nigeria problem, then head southwards from Abuja by road. Get to Lokoja and drive past it. Continue all the way beyond Ajaokuta to Anyigba. While you are at it, count the number of rivers that are now tiny streams in the middle of a vast plains. Also check out how many rivers that once spanned some 100 to 200 meters of water across are now without water during the dry season. Even at the peak of the rainy season, they are pitiful shadows of what they used to be.

Or would you rather have us talk about the Onitsha end of the River Niger? It used to be a massive body of water. Not anymore! But more of that later.

These were the thoughts on my mind when, a few days ago, I watched the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) flag off the Irrigate Nigeria Project. The initiative is designed to ensure that farmers in some parts of the country achieve three farming cycles every year. Such a transformative endeavour is expected to positively impact food availability, by enhancing mechanized outcomes at TIAMIN Rice Farm, Udubo, Gamawa Local Government Area of Bauchi State.

The projected short, medium, and long-term benefits would include job creation, increased agricultural output and overall improvement in national productivity. No one can fail to see the good intentions behind this project, especially as a response to the problem of food insecurity.

This good initiative, which is being jointly implemented by NASENI and the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Development Fund (RHIDF), needs a thoroughgoing holistic approach, so that the gains would be lasting ones. Since it is being executed with the participation of the private sector, there is need to ascertain the critical roles of the Environment Ministry, Nigeria Inland Waterways authority (NIWA) and the Ministry of Water resources in all of this.

Let us note that NASENI’s Executive Vice Chairman (EVC) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr. Khalil Suleiman Halilu, said at the flag-off that the initiative is capable of revolutionizing agriculture in Nigeria. In his own words, “…the goal of Irrigate Nigeria is to transform Nigeria’s agriculture through the provision of sustainable irrigation systems that empower farmers to achieve year-round farming, and by extension, increased productivity and reduce food prices”. That is correct.

Simply put, this project is a way of making modern irrigation techniques, and also modern equipment for dry-season farming, available to farmers. The major pillars of the project include the following, among others: (1) The deployment of centralised NASENI irrigation systems to support farming clusters in the participating communities, (2) The provision of input – enhanced seeds, (3) The provision of fertilizers, (4) Technical support to the participating farmers.

With the project’s goal of enhancing food security, by equipping farmers with modern irrigation systems and dry season farming tools, the ultimate goal is obviously year-round productivity; as earlier stated. The project is planned to run on a commercial basis, and there’s the worry. Will the farmers not be overburdened?

NASENI says no, promising that “… the repayments by farmers for the support being provided will be in the form of convenient portions of their harvests, like rice paddy”. The repayments are to be “…pooled into a strategic food reserve that will help to stabilize commodity prices, and also be available for institutional sale and for export”.

All said, no one can fault the good intentions, projected positive outcomes and the expected impact on food availability and food prices.

But, going back to the issues with which we flagged off today’s conversation, there are concerns which must be put on the table here. I refer us to two articles which appeared on this page within the last seven years. The first, titled “Onitsha Port and its Enemies” came out on February 5, 2017. The second, titled “Onitsha Port and Other Matters”, was published here on April 13 2024.  The two articles emphasized the desirability of an inland port in Onitsha, to ease trade for the South East trades and businessmen, while pointing out the challenge of water availability.

The latter of the two articles said: “One of the major overlooked, and largely unacknowledged, problem is the probability of not ever really getting enough water for the primary business of a port. You need water for a river port and the Onitsha end of the river Niger does not have enough. Dredging is a good idea, but it will give you a bigger ditch and wipe out the means of livelihood of water dependent local economies”.

The article continued: “All things considered, the challenges that come to mind regarding the proposed Onitsha River Port are: (1) How the river dams along the Niger, Benue and their many tributaries have reduced available water at onitsha by over 68%; (2) Possibly unrealistic projections about the prospects of the project; (3) The credibility of some of the existing Environmental Impact Assessment (AIE) reports, especially against the background of climate change and other environmental factors; among other factors”.

The same article pointed out that the dams built across the rivers Niger and Benue, and their tributaries, over the years have reduced the overall water volume. You now have small sand islands, and unprecedented siltation, at the Onitsha end of the river. That is why the NASENI Irrigate Nigeria project must be approached by working in sync with the Federal Ministries of Agriculture and Natural Resources Environment, blue economy and the Nigeria Inland Waterways authority (NIWA).

The current global response to the devastating impact of dams and water diversion on people and the environment within the past 60 years has been overwhelming. We all know that dams have altered ecosystems, ruined food chains and obliterated local economies for hundreds of thousands of kilometres of waterways all over the world. That is Dams and diversion or all, or part of, natural bodies of water, for electricity, farming, etc.

That article of last April said: “It is on record, for instance, that massive fish populations were killed on the Snake River, Idaho, in the US by dam construction; leading to the decimation of salmon species, among others. An Idaho State Senator, Frank Church, who originally supported dam building later rose in defense of natural waterways and spoke against dams. It was the same Frank Church who, after he saw the damage to the environment, eventually wrote the Wild and Scientific Rivers Act, passed in 1968”.

Over 22,000 kilometers of free-flowing rivers in the US are protected by Frank Church`s Act as I write. Meanwhile our natural waters and waterways are available for all comers. The fate of communities displaced by dams all over Nigeria today is rarely a topical issue, yet it is a real problem that has lingered for decades in many places.

The concern about water and free waterways is such that the world is focusing on transboundary cooperation between nations for conscious and deliberate management of the ecosystem and water volume throughout the length of major rivers. Are we doing the same in our country? The conflict between China and Thailand over development on the Lancang/Mekong River says a lot about what is going on all over the world in connection with waterways today.

To think that the government of New Zealand has gone so far as to “recognize” the Whanganui river by giving it the same constitutional rights as a person? This was done as a way of showing that free-flowing rivers have great impact on food security, water access, biodiversity conservation and propagation of the overall global ecology.

All said, NASENI must be sensitive to the impact of its new project on local economies outside the farming communities from where, and to where, the waters are coming. It must also be seen to be working in sync the Nigeria Inland Waterways Authority, the Ministries of Environment, Water resources and Blue Economy on this initiative. That is the only way to derive, and maintain sustainable gains in the Irrigate Nigeria project.

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NASENI must be sensitive to the impact of its new project on local economies outside the farming communities from where, and to where, the waters are coming. It must also be seen to be working in sync the Nigeria Inland Waterways Authority, the Ministries of Environment, Water resources and Blue Economy on this initiative. That is the only way to derive, and maintain sustainable gains in the Irrigate Nigeria project.

He already, for a few years back, had had his flight ticket tucked in his briefcase, or so it seemed. He was wont to say that he could be called away from out of the materiality of this world at any time and the baton would be passed to the younger generation to face the challenges of pulling Nigeria out of the swamp. He collected his boarding pass and his flight was called on Friday, 14 February, 2025. At his passing, he would like to leave a legacy of fairness and equity in national affairs, it was all he struggled for all his life. I am referring to Chief Ayo Adebanjo. The colossus fought to his last breath what he believed in, characteristically without mincing words. To have a clear picture of who Chief Adebanjo was, it became necessary to go memory lane by digging into the archives. By so doing ,we refresh memories of the activities of the titan and of his convictions. Following is the characterisation of him this column published on 12 April, 2018 nearly seven years ago, on the occasion of his 90th birthday. If death had tarried for just two more months Adebanjo would have been 97 next month. The said article is here reproduced:

If Chief Ayo Adebanjo was waiting for a day of redefining who he is and an endorsement as leader and the war general of the South West people, last Thursday it was. It was the day of intrinsic reward and extrinsic acknowledgement of him as leader and hero. The true leader of the Yoruba goes beyond symbolism. He must be a proven embodiment of principles; it is he whose adherence to truth is pasted on his forehead. He must be unswerved by the temptation or sway of temporary gains or lucre of office. He must be able to step out without consideration for self. There must be no gaps between utterances and actions which must be taken with absolute disregard to personal consequences as long as these are driven by a quest for truth, justice and fairness. For Ayo Adebanjo, the Yoruba leader must be able to distinguish between the Jew and the Gentile. Then the question arises: where do you stand? Are you a Jew or a Gentile? You cannot be both. With him there is no question of where he stands at all times.

On Tuesday, it was a sea of heads. The church was filled to overflowing and so were the reception grounds. A normally dandy fellow even if modest, his influence on the crescendo capping a week-long preparation for the D-Day was unmistakable. Everything bore his signature for taste. The St. Phillips Anglican Church was sparkling with new paint. The whole village, Isanya Ogbo-Ijebu saw the 90th birthday of their worthy son as their own. They wore a special dress of green fabric interspersed with lines of subdued brown. For the people of his birth place, it was celebration galore, all the way, dancing and rejoicing outside the huge and expansive reception tent. The signpost to the village was artistically done and it read AA@90. The neat appearance of the village testified to Adebanjo’s intolerance of ugliness. It was a different kind of fresh air characteristic of unspoilt countryside. Adebanjo’s own compound on which is seated his modest bungalow is not a jungle of concrete. Put in charge of the arrangement was Dr. Yemi Ogunbiyi, an animated fellow who makes friends easily with his warm-heartedness and who equally cares about standards. For Ogunbiyi, there are no half-measures. Whether at Harbour Port at Victoria Island or Isanya Ogbo-Ijebu his signature for taste and standards was boldly written.

Present to grace the occasion were Adebanjo’s comrades in the unrelenting drive for a new, united and vibrant restructured Nigeria for meaningful, self-evident, measurable and sustainable development and growth. His colleagues in the handshake across the Niger and across Benue to Benue Plateau were well represented. Step forward and be counted amidst clapping, the nationalist Chief Edwin Clarke; Chief John Nwodo, the national president of Ohanaeze Ndigbo; and the leader of the Middle Belt Forum, Dr. Bala Takaya who succeeded Prof. Jerry Gana. Former Commonwealth Secretary, Chief Emeka Anyoku, was in attendance. So was Dan Suleiman who was in the trenches with Adebanjo in the NADECO days as head at the United Kingdom front.

The political leaders who numbered among the dignitaries were the Vice-President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo; Senator Ibikunle Amosun, Governor of Ogun State; Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, Governor of Osun State and Senator Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State. Former Governors Olusegun Osoba, Niyi Adebayo and Gbenga Daniel were at the event. There as well were General Alani Akinrinade; Dr. Amos Akingba; Sam Amuka the Vanguard Publisher about whose writings in the days of yore Adebanjo spoke with nostalgia; public spirited Professor Pat Itomi; Pharmacist and politician Jimi Agbaje; Nike Akande, former Minister and until recently president, Lagos Chambers of Commerce; Dr. Tokunbo Awolowo-Dosunmu; chairman of Insight Communications, Biodun Sobanjo; Tunde Adelaja, chief executive officer of Rosabel; Lawyer Yemi Adefulu; Lawyer Ayanlaja; Dare Babarinsa and Gbenga Adefaye, both reputable and leading journalists; Lawyer Dipo Jimilehin; public affairs commentator Olu Ademulegun.

Predictably, it was a full house of Afenifere, the Yoruba socio-cultural group, but more well known as a cultural cum political vehicle to watch over the interest of the Yoruba people. Leading Afenifere was its leader, Reuben Fasoranti; there were Chief Olu Falae; Professor Banji Akintoye, Chief Femi Okunrounmu; Chief Akinfenwa; indefatigable National Publicity Secretary Yinka Odumakin and a host of other key members of the association. The family of Chief Adebanjo’s ‘twin brother’, Sir Olaniwun Ajayi, was prominently represented by Professor Konyin Ajayi and Dr. Ajayi, his brother. It was an exceedingly colourful occasion with Bisi Olatilo as the anchor man.

Chief Adebanjo has come a long way, pressing, pushing and advocating the interest of the people of South West. His autobiography titled Say It As It Is captures Adebanjo in his unveiled essence. His political education began in Awolowo School of Principles. The products are known as Awoists. In that school, unremitting application to a just cause is a credo and loyalty without extenuation is the byword. Constant reading, education and re-education is the culture. You must be informed. You must read. So was it that after Adebanjo became the Organising Secretary of Action Group, it did not take him long to realise that the path he had chosen to be in the image of his hero and mentor was strewn with thorns and broken bottles. To successfully walk the path, you must be independent and the soles of the shoes impregnably fortified. You could not be fighting the same establishment from which you would turn round to look for financial succour either as an employee or for an appointive political office. That was the reasoning. You must be free to give expression to the courage of your convictions. You must be prepared to go to jail and return to don your wig and gown as long as it was not for fraud or other crimes for which anyone would know shame. But for your political beliefs and activism, your bathroom kits must be ever ready, and Kirikiri was expected to take note as you could be a guest there any day, at any time! And, indeed, these defined Adebanjo’s journey to reckoning and celebration among the Yoruba. He was a few times a tenant in one jail house or the other. These are credentials an Awoist must be ready to brandish.

The need for independence and unhindered political pursuits for the wellbeing of his people made him to quickly tear off and, it drove him to the United Kingdom to read law. The last time he was locked up was during the Abacha Administration. Guess over what! It was over the death of Kudirat Abiola for whose husband’s mandate he and his leaders were unrelenting. Again, guess who were locked up with him: the indefatigable leader of Afenifere and NADECO, Abraham Adesanya; Solanke Onasanya was asked to be reporting to the police. He was spared of the jail house because his age was put into consideration. Olu Falae was younger, he was clamped into jail for the same cause. The mistake the Administration made was that it left Bola Ige free and he roamed far and wide, He was not locked up with them. He had had his own fair share of prison experience during Buhari’s first coming. Abacha did not reckon with the fact that Bola Ige was the spokesman for the Yoruba and their cause with almost matchless gift of the gab. Like everyone else from the Awolowo clan, he was bold, he was articulate, he was unsparing with his tongue. Promptly, Bola Ige went to court to free his colleagues from Abacha’s notorious gulag. In 1962, Adebanjo was among Awolowo’s associates wanted to face treasonable felony charge. He and Sam Ikoku fled to Ghana to take refuge under Kwame Nkrumah who shared the same political philosophy with them and their party. In his absence, his father was arrested in his place.

Adebanjo is a repository of the history of the political development of our country. He would overwhelm you with what meetings were held, where and on what date. Who were those present and who said what! He would then recap almost word for word what Chief Awolowo said on the occasion. Not surprising, he at a time took residence in Chief Awolowo’s house at Ikenne where he sat at the sage’s feet to learn wisdom and take in sufficient political education and what holding onto principles means, bearing in mind that the battle might continue after Awolowo’s would have left them. He wanted to be at the beck and call of his leader. He was a member of the board of directors of the Nigerian Tribune. Therefore, what we see in him today is a product of that long tutelage and respectable closeness to his mentor and leader; loyalty, bluntness, unwavering adherence to principles and decency. He is confident but could be combative and abrasive as he does not suffer fools gladly. For his arguments, he comes prepared and he delivers his punches with all the strength he can muster. Indeed, he is never non-plussed and quick witted when it comes to how Nigerians should stay together. For him, there must be an educated debate and negotiation. He would not tolerate dictatorship. Which is why Jonathan’s document from the 2014 National Conference is one that holds the key for enduring value for the progress and happiness of all within the Nigerian frontiers.

His unswerving adherence to principles almost brought him on a collision course with his colleagues on who should be the governorship candidate for Lagos State in 1998 in readiness for 1999. Because Afenifere was just out of the war with Abacha and frayed nerves fairly massaged and soothed by Abdulsalami Abubakar, they did not know enough about their followers nor did they have a clear idea of who among them were loyal and tested enough to be trusted with the all-important office of the Governor of Lagos State. They first mulled the possibility of Ganiyu Dawodu occupying the coveted position. Dawodu declined the offer to fly the AD flag; he suggested that Afenifere should go for a young man who was full of energy and was well educated. Lagos then became a test case. Following unsavoury developments at some point, Sir Olaniwun Ajayi never missed to thrust needle in the wrist of Dawodu. Dawodu who was the Afenifere and AD leader in Lagos was rooting for Funsho Williams and the report the Afenifere received from him was that Funsho Williams won the governorship primaries. Chief Adebanjo argued forcibly that Funsho Williams was not part of the struggle and not much was known about his antecedents. But Bola Tinubu they knew. At the time, Funsho Williams was just coming out of the civil service.

Adebanjo said Tinubu had thrown his all into the struggle, by way of finance and activism, at home and after fleeing into exile. While in exile, he was granting interviews to further the cause. His home in London became a refuge for some fleeing activists and journalists some of whom he gave pocket money. The powerful argument resonated with his colleagues more so that it bordered on loyalty, commitment and antecedents, factors on which Afenifere put a great deal of premium. Adebanjo carried the day. For the group, party is supreme. A candidate goes into office to implement party programmes sold to the electorate. The candidate must, therefore, be one that is persuaded on party programme and must be known. He must have antecedents and must be loyal and be prepared to submit to party discipline.

There was also respect for hierarchy in their group. With the sensing of imminent departure from earthly life of Chief Adekunle Ajasin, leadership was transferred to Abraham Adesanya who himself had been a long runner by the side of Awolowo. He was one of his defence counsel during the treasonable felony trial. He was not just also blunt, but versed in the traditional ethical imperatives and thought flow patterns of their people, punctuating and elucidating his pronouncements with proverbs. After Adesanya, the mantle of leadership went to Chief Reuben Fasoranti. Because age has caught up with Fasoranti, Adebanjo became the face of Afenifere, speaking and travelling, travelling and speaking. He is ready to take anybody on, eyeball to eyeball. His friends cut across all age groups. He is at home in the company of the youth with jokes and his sunny smiles and hearty laughter, and lit-up youthful face as he is in the company of octogenarians. Of course, one cannot play his kind role without attracting criticisms. His critics accuse him of rigidity and that he is unable to distinguish between flexibility to reach objective goal and a craving for opportunism. Their illustration, for example, is that if you are driving to Ibadan from Lagos and a huge tree is found to have fallen across the road and you do not have an axe to cut it and free the road, the sensible thing would be to think of an alternative road which means you turn back and take Abeokuta or Ijebu-Ode and you get to Ibadan the same destination.

Adebanjo is not averse to flexibility as long as the goal is not negotiable. But his experience is that those who sought such flexibility without keeping the goal sacrosanct because of lack of strength of character had wandered into irreversibly into what he calls wilderness. When he speaks like that your mind races to the days of AD which was soon to be engrossed in crisis and Adesanya was preoccupied with settling them.

Adebanjo loves Nigeria but would not surrender his Yorubaness. Even then it should not be at the expense of others and others, too, in pursuit of their interests should do so but not at the expense of their fellow nationalities. He believes that Nigeria of our dreams can never arise if it is not restructured. His argument is that the lighter a burden the easier it is to carry. The Federal Government, according to him, is overloaded. If the zones and states share in the burden the lighter it would become and the faster the movement of the country on the path of development and modernity. Chief Awolowo had said that a unitary form of government in a country of diverse peoples and nationalities with their cultures breeds envy and unending hostilities among the component parts. Restructuring of Nigeria, for Adebanjo, is a task to which he is totally committed. His pains and lament today at the age of 90 is absence of sufficient number of youths with the right political education, who are armed with history and who are endued the strength of character to resist opportunism. His hope has been such youths would emerge to whom his generation would gladly hand over the nation, in the quest and battle for equality before the law, equity and justice for all.

Those who gathered on Tuesday to pay homage and celebrate Adebanjo could not but go away with a deep impression that it is good to be good. It is eternally rewarding to be selfless. Adebanjo is no doubt appreciated not just by only his people but by a great many from across the country for his doggedness and selflessness in the pursuit of their happiness and fulfilment. There were drinks and the comestibles were inexhaustible. It was his glorious day.

All the foregoing was captured seven years ago. Given the state in which the world is now, we must have people like him to keep evil at bay until the ongoing waves of Light purification on earth reach all and sundry—all mankind! I believe the multitude that will gather at Isanya Ogbo-Ijebu in early May to mourn and bid him farewell on his continuing journey in the beyond will even be more. Adebanjo was full of love and he had an acute sense of justice. Nothing changed in this his pursuit of these virtues up to his last moment on earth. He was ever set to rise in the defence of these. He lived an eventful and remarkable life.

 

 

‘Money illusion’, in Economics, refers to the tendency of people to confuse the nominal value of money (its face value) with its real value (its purchasing power). In other words, people tend to think that a certain amount of money has the same value over time, even if the purchasing power of the money has massively decreased due to inflation.

This ‘illusion’ has, without exception, afflicted Nigeria’s entire political leadership and the officialdom in the past two years or so. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu exceptionally ‘showcased’ this affliction the other day during a national caucus meeting of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the state house, Abuja.

President Tinubu specifically told the state governors at the meeting that Federal allocations to their states have tripled under his administration. “If your state was receiving N40 billion before, you are now getting N120 billion,” the president said with aplomb. He ascribed the quantum increase in distributable funds among the three tiers of government (Federal, State, and Local) to ‘savings’ from fuel subsidy removal and other sources.

Tinubu went on to challenge the state governors to do more in their developmental strides in their various domains, since they now have more money in their hands. The President also urged the citizenry to refocus their expectations and requests to the sub-national governments, rather than piling up pressure only on the Federal Government.

No doubt, really, that the quantum of revenue shared by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) monthly among the three tiers of government has risen substantially (in nominal terms) under the Tinubu administration. Exactly ten years ago, in February 2015, FAAC shared only N500 billion among the three tiers of government; in February 2019, the sum of N660.37 billion was disbursed.

In March 2024, FAAC shared a total of N1.123 trillion, from a gross total revenue of N1.867 trillion. In December 2024, FAAC shared N1.424 trillion, from a gross total of N2.310 trillion, to the three tiers of government.

But as the distributable amount by FAAC was increasing, from hundreds of billions of naira as of 2015 and 2019 (as shown above) to trillions by 2024, inflation and exchange rates maintained a similar pattern. While the rate of inflation was at single digit level of 8.4 per cent in February 2015, by December 2024, it had hit 34.80 per cent—an almost five times rise in about ten years.

Similarly, while in February 2015, the naira to dollar exchange rate was N198/US$, by end-December 2024, the rate was N1,535/US$. This is about eight times crash in value of naira during the period. Even in the nearer term of May 2023, the average exchange rate of the naira per US dollar (in the official window) was about N460/US$, but deteriorated to N1535/US as of end-December 2024.

From another perspective, while the price of fuel (Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) was about N185/liter as of May 2023, by end-December 2024, the price was over N1000/liter—a jump of N815 per liter in just 20 months. So, what one could buy at less than N200 in 2023, by 2024, he has to pay over N1000 to buy the same item. Simple!

Again, in the first half of 2023, the price of a 50kg bag of cement (of various makes) was about N2000—N3000, but at present, the price hovers around N10,000. So have the prices of other building materials gone up. The same pattern applies to food items: rice, beans, onions, yam, maize, cocoyam, cassava, name it.

So, what is the worth of the trillions of naira being shared by FAAC? In the states, depending on the location, the developmental projects that could be executed with the few billions of naira a few years ago, can no longer be done with the hundreds of billions being received from FAAC today.

In real terms, therefore, all tiers of government in Nigeria have been getting poorer in the past 20 months. After all, the Nobel laureate in Economics, John Maynard Keynes says that the value of money is determined by what it can buy, rather than by any intrinsic value it may possess. Also, another renowned Economist, Milton Freidman says “The importance of the value of money is not the value itself, but the purchasing power it represents."

What purchasing power does the naira represent today? This is why the Organized Labor (Nigeria Labor Congress & Co.) got the short end of the stick, when they took the N70,000 minimum wage. No sooner they signed the deal with the Federal Government than they realized that they had shot themselves in the foot. Labor was focusing on nominal wage increases rather than real wage increases.

Seventy thousand naira is only worth what it can buy: not up to one 50kg of any brand of rice in any Nigerian market. Today, few months after the minimum wage deal, Labor has practically gone back to the trenches—fighting for more increases in (minimum) wage.

The ‘money illusion’ is also best illustrated in the fact that between 2024 and 2025, the Federal Government had to double its budget. While Nigeria’s total budget for 2024 was N27.5 trillion, the one for 2025 stands at N54.99 trillion. This doubling of the size of the budget just in a space of one year is unprecedented; it vividly shows how fast the purchasing power of the naira is crashing.

In 2022, Nigeria’s total budget was N17 trillion, and in 2023, it was N21.82 trillion—a modest difference of N3.82 trillion between the two years. But between 2024 and 2025, the figure doubled! This ‘ballooned’ figure gives the gullible public the impression of a good public finance outlook, and a false sense of comfort.

It goes without saying, however, that ‘money illusion’ exerts a number of negative effects on an economy, including the distorted impression of ‘abundance’ of money. It leads to poor financial decisions by all economic agents—as they cannot accurately take into account the effects of inflation on their money.

‘Money illusion’ leads to sub-optimal allocation of resources, as people invest in assets that appear to have high nominal returns but low real returns. Thus, even as the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Treasury Bills issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have been at (high) yields of 20-22 per cent, their real returns are negative. This is because the subsisting rate of inflation remains much higher.

At virtually all levels, many developmental initiatives have turned ‘white elephant projects’ or totally abandoned due to the crashing purchasing power of annual budgetary provisions year-in-year-out. Government officials merely move around bandying the humongous sums in billions and trillions that have been ‘spent’ on various projects.

Although there are several other factors that contribute to the abandonment of projects, the fast crashing real value of budgetary allocations remains critical. The hyperinflationary trend in Nigeria, triggered by fuel subsidy removal, and the full floatation of the naira which led to its sudden massive devaluation have combined to make projects planning and execution traumatic.

Distorted budget cycle, now entrenched by the Tinubu administration, has come to worsen the uncertainty created by ‘money illusion.’ Rather than having the annual budget run from January to December, the cycle has now also turned unpredictable under the current administration. This has resulted into several reviews of projects (with contract sums rising), and rolling them over through many (annual) budgets. And many of the projects are eventually abandoned!     

Beyond propaganda, however, does the Government really have so much money for its programs and activities? If the Government has so much money (as the trillions of naira shows), why is it going cap in hand, borrowing money from everywhere across the globe? Why is the Government imposing all manner of taxes, duties and levies on (mostly hitherto free) public goods, services and utilities?

As the purchasing power of the citizenry is fast crashing, courtesy of rising inflation, Government directly or through its agencies keeps hiking existing tax rates or imposing new ones. For instance, in the contentious tax bill before the National Assembly, the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate is being raised from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent. Being a consumption tax, hike in VAT rate automatically translates to ‘milking’ the consumer the more.

‘Money illusion’ has, in a way, led the CBN to construe the ravaging hyperinflationary trend in the country as a monetary phenomenon, where ‘too much money is chasing few goods’. Yet, the runaway inflation is more of a ‘cost push’ problem, because of the rising cost of all productive activities—including ‘imported components’ of such costs.

The apex bank believed there has been an excess of money in circulation, leading to increased demand for a ‘limited’ supply of goods and services. With this as a background, the CBN has been taking a tight monetary stance, including raising the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to highest level in recent years: from 18 per cent in June 2023 to 27.50 per cent at end-2024. An almost 10 per cent hike in 18 months.

The CBN also raised the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to ‘drain’ cash from the commercial banks, and weaken their credit creation capacity. But this, plus the high MPR, raised the cost of credit to private sector operators—and indeed, pushed loans beyond the reach of most businesses—especially the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).

Apparently ensconced in the so-much-money backdrop, the CBN has been issuing bonds and Treasury Bills at mouthwatering rates—attracting both local and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)—all to the detriment of the real sector in the country. The FPIs, as ‘hot money’ have been flying in and out of the country at indeterminate paces, and sustaining the macroeconomic volatility.

Apart from the CBN, almost without exception, all other Federal Government agencies have continued to impose or hike charges for their services to the populace. And they are being celebrated for the trillions of naira they are raking in for the Government. Nigeria Custom Service (NCS), Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS), Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), among others, have been exceeding their ‘revenue targets’—leaving the citizenry poorer.

These huge (unexpected) revenues from these agencies, as explained by President Tinubu, were what moved him to go back to the National Assembly for a top-up to the 2025 Appropriation Bill, as it was undergoing legislative consideration. This unusual step shows that Mr. President believes that the bigger the money budgeted, the more ‘successful’ the budget would be. And we ask: where are the impacts of the previous budgets?

By the same deduction, the so-called ‘more money’ in the hands of the state governors does not amount to much in real terms. So, rather than flaunting the ‘fat’ FAAC monthly allocations, the Federal Government should begin to address the root causes of the crashing purchasing power. Why has inflation been rising, and remained high even after the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

After rebasing, the CPI—which measures inflation rate—was brought down from end-2024 level of 34.80 per cent to 24.48 per cent in January 2025. The rebasing which amounted to a mere change in the methodology used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), led to the ‘drop’ in the CPI value.

It will therefore be another type of illusion for the Federal Government to begin to celebrate the so-called drop in inflation rate. After all, the 24.48 per cent for January 2025 is far above the sub-Saharan Africa average of five per cent (‘Africa Pulse’ report) in 2024. And, in the advanced economies (UK and US, for instance), inflation rate is hardly above three per cent.

In dealing with the ‘money illusion’ challenge, therefore, the ball is squarely in the court of the Federal Government. This is because whatever is the state of the Nigerian economy today is largely policy-induced: mainly unintended upshots. So, let’s begin to get real!

  • The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com(08033075697) SMS only     

As a youngster living in London full-time, I often participated in a BBC World Service quiz programme called Focus On Africa.

It was great fun and my second favourite work assignment ever (the first was writing reports about wonderful tourist destinations for British Airways’ glossy in-flight magazine. I’d fly to Mauritius or wherever first-class, then assess the best hotels, etc…so cushy!).

OK, so I always eagerly looked forward to the quiz, which happened every month for many years. Later, it became an annual event and I absolutely loved it because it was quality edutainment (educational as well as entertaining).

But most of all, I loved it because of the fabulous multinational cast of characters I worked with: Irish Maura and Ghanaian KB (both now late), Cameroonian Veronique, Zimbabwean Violet, Patrick and Robin (both English), Cameron, another Ghanaian and a handful of other excellent journalists.

Another frequent participant was a Tanzanian journalist called Ahmed Rajab. He was so charming, erudite and amusing…and by far the most knowledgeable colleague I had within that context.

Ahmed could answer almost every question that was thrown at us by the quiz master or mistress. He was the kind of guy who knew what the Gross Domestic Product of Botswana was and could recite the names of every member of the Senegalese football team. He was as well-informed around sports as he was around politics and economics.

He was, simply put, a Pan African genius who put me (a moron by comparison) to shame on several occasions!

Ahmed recently passed away and I am heartbroken. His son, Talal, a PR and Communications professional who works in London, has kindly written the following tribute for Vanguard readers:

 Ahmed Rajab, the international journalist and political analyst, sadly passed away at the age of 79 in London. 

As I reminisce on his life and career, many memories both happy and sad come to mind.  The times that he would sneak me and my brother, Tahar, into Bush House in the early 90s so we could hear him record pieces for the BBC Swahili Service.  Watching him being interviewed on CNN or Channel 4 News and shouting “there’s dad!” as we crowded around the TV.  Going into the Africa Analysis offices in Farringdon, London, and listening to him talk about politics and economics in far away countries that I had little to no knowledge of. 

It also reminded me of the times when he was away for months on end, reporting on elections and wars, missing birthdays and other important occasions as he pursued his passion for journalism.  Even in retirement, he was still much sought after by media outlets for his analysis and views of the continent. 

Ahmed was born on the island of Zanzibar in 1946, and his experiences of the Zanzibar revolution shaped much of his later life, particularly his political views.  Zanzibar, at the time a British protectorate under the Sultanship of Jamshid bin Abdullah, was undergoing radical change during his student years, culminating in an armed revolt in 1964 and the overthrowing of the Sultan.  It was an experience that not only led to him moving to the UK but shaped his later political activism.  He described the events for a BBC Witness History podcast in 2020.

After moving to the UK in 1964, he graduated from Birkbeck University where he studied Philosophy, before pursuing a Masters in African Studies from Sussex University.  After graduation, he worked in various production roles at the BBC World Service in London, and also served within the UNESCO Communications Office in Kenya. It was at this time that he honed his writing skills, contributing articles for Index on Censorship and Africa Events. 

By 1995, my dad had become the editor of Africa Analysis, a fortnightly magazine dedicated to African politics and economics and, after leaving Africa Analysis after nearly 20 years, he became the Head of Newsroom for the Middle East/Asia Bureau of IRIN, the United Nations’ Humanitarian News Agency.  During his career, he was regularly interviewed on the likes of the BBC, Channel 4 News and CNN.

You could always find my father behind a laptop or PC, as he was also a prolific writer. His work,A Chilly Wind Over the Indian Ocean, was featured in the book Pioneers, Rebels, and a Few Villains: 150 Years of Journalism in Eastern Africa. His poetry, which resonated deeply with African identity and political themes, was included in the 1997 anthology African New Voices.  

It’s only now, as a dad myself, that I realise the sacrifices that my father had to make to pursue his passion for journalism and his desire to see true democracy spread across Africa. He left Zanzibar during a time of revolution, started a new life in a new country on his own at the age of 18 and worked day and night to realise his dreams. I can’t even begin to imagine what that must have been like, and my only regret is that I never properly sat down with him to hear his experiences.

He is survived by his wife, Aysha, my brother Tahar, his daughter Zakiya and niece Umi, along with his seven grandchildren.

 

The world is in a mess and this is not just about Donald Trump, but a confused Europe causing disorder and then deploying falsehood and propaganda to camouflage its real intentions.

For instance, there are a lot of attacks against Trump for allegedly trying to force Ukraine to sign a mineral deal with the United States, US. This is, of course, false propaganda. The truth is that the deal was proposed and sold by Ukrainian leader  Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Biden administration in October 2024, that is over three months before Trump was sworn in! The Europeans knew this because the same deal was presented by Zelenskyy to the European Council on October 17, 2024.

This offer was part of the ‘Victory Plan’ a delusional Zelenskyy  hawked around the world, including to Pope Francis at the Vatican. 

Four months ago, the war was going very badly for Ukraine as it is now. Many parts of the  country were in ruins; it had embarked on forced conscription and 10.6 million of its populace was either internally displaced or in exile. Also, Russia had between 2023 and 2024, seized 4,168 kilometres of Ukrainian land.

Given this reality, only someone  on the verge of lunacy would claim Ukraine is about to win the war, would not talk peace, and, draw up a ‘Victory Plan’. This exactly was what Zelenskyy did. 

The ‘Victory Plan’ confirms Trump’s portrayal of Zelenskyy during the Oval Office altercation, as an unstable mind who does not want a ceasefire, does not want to negotiate an agreement, yet, has neither the men nor weapons to secure a military  victory over Russia.

The first of Zelenskyy’s  five-point ‘Victory Plan’ is for an invitation to join NATO. This, as we know, is one of the two main causes of the war. So, he wants the war to continue. His second point is for NATO to supply deadlier weapons  so he can attack  Russian territories. The third is the supply of comprehensive non-nuclear weapon which will guarantee Ukraine: “Peace through strength.”

The fourth is offering the EU, US and Canada  special agreements to exploit Ukraine’s energy, food and natural resources like lithium, gas and titanium. The fifth is for Ukrainian soldiers, after their ‘victory’ over Russia, to replace  certain military contingents of the US military stationed in Europe! Zelenskyy claimed that Ukranian soldiers are so battle hardened that they should be allowed to defend all Europe.

Zelenskyy whose five-year term as President expired on May 19, 2024, presented his crazy ‘Victory Plan’ to the Ukrainian parliament and no parliamentarian dared to oppose it as Ukrainians like Denis Kireev who cross his path can be summarily executed.

 That being the case, what stopped the EU leaders from pointing out to Zelenskyy that his plans are not the product of a rational mind. Rather, they applauded him.

They exhibited the same behaviour on Sunday, March 2, 2025 when they received him in London after Trump had bashed him. Rather than tell Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations as Trump suggested, they praised  him for bravery. 

In fact, the host, United Kingdom  Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer,  boasted that he is “ready to put boots on the ground and planes in the air”. Despite usually exhibiting political foolishness, Zelenskyy on this occasion did not take the bait. Indeed, it would be foolish for anybody to believe that any European country would send her sons and daughters to go fight in a war that was avoidable and unnecessary.

Another silly talk by the Western European leaders is to boast that they would form a ‘Coalition of the Willing’, which, to me, simply implies  NATO minus US. This is because I do not see why any non-NATO member country would send its soldiers to go and fight in Ukraine.

Another not quite intelligible or, half intelligent idea is that announced by French President Emmanuel Macron. Rather than a straight forward ceasefire which would entail the guns going silent and an immediate cessation of hostilities, he revealed that he and Starmer want to propose a one-month truce in the war. He added that this would only be “in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure”, not on the battle field. This does not show either leader to be bright minds because it exposes them to the world as people who do not want an end to the war. It is also to ensure that Russia will not accept such a silly ceasefire knowing that it has absolute control in the air and at sea.

Starmer has his own parochial  plan for the war. He wants to sell  some 5,000 lightweight-multirole missiles, LMM, worth £1.6bn to poor Ukraine. His proposal to an hapless Zelenskyy is planned to treble production at the British Thales factory in Belfast, provide 200 jobs in Northern Ireland and directly support a further 700 jobs for Britons.   

On her part, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a plan to raise $842bn. Not to rebuild Ukraine, but to “rearm” Europe and provide immediate military support to Ukraine after the United States pulled the plugs.

The EU is clearly in crisis, but it continues in its crafty ways. It had beaten into line members that tried to prevent the Ukrainian war by asking Ukraine to abide by the Minsk I and II Agreements. The Minsk Peace Talks were co-chaired  by US, France and Russia. Other participating countries included Italy, Sweden, Armenia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Turkey, France  and Germany.

Initially, French President Emmanuel Macron whose predecessor, Francois Hollande, had signed the Agreement, tried to mediate in last minute talks, including with Putin, but was bullied into supporting Ukraine and tossing the peace agreements into the dustbin. 

But not so the then German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who insisted that Ukraine implemented the agreements in which she had been a major participant. But she was on her way out of office. To ensure Germany didn’t have a second thought about the war, the two Nord Stream pipelines between her and Russia carrying cheap gas were blown up on September 26, 2022 by some EU members.

However, despite bullying, Hungary has remained consistent, arguing that the war is unnecessary. 

 On Saturday, March 1, 2025, Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, issued a statement stating that : “Slovakia  will not support Ukraine either financially or militarily to enable it continue the war. If others  choose to do so, we will respect that.”

Zelenskyy had been used to play Ukraine like football, now, he is the ball being played in the field. He is caught between the US and most of EU. He may be taken out, not by foreigners, but by the Ukrainians themselves. May the Zelenskyy disease not happen to us.

Nigeria is witnessing its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, no doubt. President Bola Tinubu admitted that much during his first Presidential Media Chat on December 23, 2024. Yet, when asked if his government will consider travelling the “price control” route in order to mitigate the crunch, his answer was emphatic. “I don’t believe in price control. We just continue to supply the market, we work hard to supply the market,” he said flatly.

Surprisingly, barely two months thence, a government agency – Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, FCCPC – is insisting on price control. Granted, it has the mandate to protect consumers, but it is not a price regulator and Nigeria is a free market economy, the very point Tinubu made with his pointed response.

Citing unabating inclement economic climate, MultiChoice, Africa’s leading pay-tv powerhouse, on February 24, announced its intention to adjust tariffs on its DStv and GOtv packages effective March 1. The tariff hike, according to John Ugbe, the CEO, meant that the DStv premium package, which hitherto cost N37,000 monthly will now dig a deeper hole in the pockets of customers at N44,500. Subscribers on the Compact+ are to pay N30,000 as against N25,000 and Compact bouquet will climb from N15,700 to N19,000.

Reiterating that the hike has been necessitated by the ever-increasing cost of running business in Nigeria, the pay-tv service provider boss said it will enable the firm to continue offering its customers “world-class homegrown and international content, delivered through the best technology.” Significantly, the increments are below 25 per cent, far less than the inflationary pressures exacerbated by sundry volatilities in the economy. Yet, it is enough to put the company in FCCPC’s crosshairs.

To be sure, Nigerians, facing significant economic challenges, are barely surviving and any hike in tariffs makes it worse. But businesses are not faring any better. Firms that hitherto posted robust balance sheets year-on-year are going bust, literally. For instance, in 2024, Nestle Nigeria posted a net loss of N164.6 billion and MTN Nigeria announced a whopping N550.33 billion loss before tax. Those who could not stand the heat in the kitchen fled. In 2023 alone, industry giants, including GSK, Sanofi-Aventis Nigeria Ltd, Unilever Nigeria Plc., Procter & Gamble Nigeria, and Bolt Food, exited Nigeria.

The rising operational costs is a consequence of the much-vaunted reform policies of the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and floating of the Naira. Today, petrol which hitherto sold at N185 a litre, now sells at over N1,000 in most parts of the country. When that is added to the over 250 per cent hike in the cost of electricity from N68 kilowatts per hour to N206.80/kWh for those in the so-called Band A, and the sheer bedlam in the foreign exchange market, the impact on businesses is ruinous.

Standing between the devil and the deep blue sea, businesses that have decided to weather the storm rather than fleeing are hiking their tariffs to remain afloat. MultiChoice is one of them. But it is not the only one. In January, the Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC, approved a 50 per cent tariff increase for telecommunications operators in Nigeria in order to address rising operational costs and ensure sustainability.

Long before the telecoms operators hitched a ride on the price hike wagon, many other companies were already on board with price adjustments in excess of 100 per cent. For instance, early 2024, Nigerian Breweries, NB, Plc. upwardly reviewed prices of 45 products due to “rising input costs and the need to mitigate the impact.” Streaming giants, Netflix, also announced a review of its prices with effect from April 1, 2024. Earlier, International Breweries, bottlers of Hero and Trophy lager brands, citing escalating cost of doing business, increased prices across its product portfolio. Another brewing giant, Guinness Nigeria Plc., also announced a new price regime.

In 2023, cab service providers, Uber and Bolt, made significant adjustment in prices in response to the fuel subsidy removal. Airlines have since then tripled their fares. Healthcare is similarly impacted, with prices of medications shooting through the roof. School fees at all levels, including those of Federal Government-owned universities, went up.

Ironically, these other organisations are given free pass even with higher percentage hikes, but whenever MultiChoice decides to travel the same route, it is singled out for sanction. So, with its less than 25 per cent tariff hike, the gloves are off once again. Last week, Ondaje Ijagwu, FCCPC Director of Corporate Affairs, said the Commission had directed MultiChoice’s CEO to attend an investigative hearing on February 27. “This action follows MultiChoice’s formal notification of the price adjustment, which raises concerns about recurrent unilateral price hikes, potential market dominance abuse, and perceived anti-competitive practices in the pay-tv industry,” the statement read in part. The meeting was later rescheduled for March 6, at MultiChoice’s behest.

The House of Representatives has joined the fray. Following a motion by Esosa Iyawe on Tuesday, the Green Chamber resolved that the pay-tv provider should suspend the proposed hike pending a thorough investigation. If the Senate was not embroiled in the scandalous “roforofo” fight between Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan and Senate President Godswill Akpabio, it would have embarked on its own inquisition by now.

So, why is it a crime for MultiChoice to charge market-reflective rates for its products and services when it is not for others? Why would a National Assembly that does not see anything wrong in government arbitrarily removing petrol subsidy and hiking electricity tariff frown at a private business increasing prices of its products in order to survive?

These incessant attacks on the right of a private company to make sound business decisions in a very challenging economic environment is incongruous with the dictates of a free market economy.  MultiChoice Nigeria is a private business with the right to determine the prices of its services and government has no power to regulate consumer prices as the former FCCPC executive vice-chairman, Dr. Babatunde Irukera, explained in 2022. Besides, MultiChoice is a lifestyle service provider that does not enjoy a monopoly in the market. Competitors such as StarTimes, SLTV and UEL abound. So, rather than wishing a company that has changed the face of entertainment in Nigeria for over 25 years dead, those not comfortable with its new price regime have options.

MultiChoice has made significant contributions to Nigeria’s economy. From its humble beginnings of about 30 employees, it has well over 1,000 employees presently even as it indirectly supports over 20,000 more jobs. Since inception, it has contributed significantly to the economy. The 2019 Socio-Economic Impact Report from AccentureTM estimated that between 2016 and 2019, the company contributed N363 billion directly to Nigeria’s GDP, created economic value of N57.1 billion through new businesses, paid N39.6 billion in taxes and fees and spent N49.5 billion on content and local production facilities. The figures have doubled.

But these figures are of no moment to FCCPC, which in its desperation to ratchet up the pressure, on Wednesday, instituted legal proceedings against MultiChoice Nigeria Limited and John Ugbe, allegedly for violating regulatory directives, obstructing an ongoing inquiry and engaging in conduct deemed violations of the provisions of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, FCCPA, 2018.

Perhaps, the Tunji Bello-led FCCPC management is unaware that in 2015, two lawyers – Osasuyi Adebayo and Oluyinka Oyeniji – approached a Federal High Court sitting in Lagos to challenge MultiChoice’s right to increase prices. They lost, with the court ruling that they were not obliged to use MultiChoice’s services. But Bello should know. He is a lawyer, journalist, and administrator in Lagos at the time.

Truth be told, pay-tv is a luxury and not an essential commodity, and MultiChoice as a business is not insulated from the country’s asphyxiating economic downturn. Expecting, therefore, that the costs for DStv and GOtv services will remain unchanged when the cost of doing business in Nigeria is skyrocketing daily is unrealistic. FCCPC should let MultiChoice be.

 

The live drama staged in the Oval Office on February 28 between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was such that Zelenskyy might never have rehearsed in all his former life as a comedian.

Except that it wasn’t funny. It was unprecedented. You would need to go back 64 years to find anything nearly as nasty as the Trump-Zelenskyy shouting match, with Trump’s deputy, JD Vance, enthusiastically fanning the flames.

The showdown between John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev before the Cuban Missile Crisis was hair-raising, but it wasn’t before a global audience or live TV. Everything else in between, from Richard Nixon’s spats during Watergate to Robert Mugabe’s faceoff with Magaret Thatcher over the Lancaster Agreement, has been child’s play compared with the Trump-Zelenskyy verbal brawl.

Dangerous enemy, fatal friend

There have been suggestions that Trump and Vance staged it to find an excuse to abandon Ukraine or to extract the best deal possible for the US over minerals rights in Ukraine. Whatever, it was Trump, yet again, being Trump. However, even if that were so, Zelenskyy should have been wiser than to turn a dangerous enemy into a fatal friend.

As he flits across Europe and signals a willingness for another meeting with Trump to patch things up, there are a few unfamiliar lessons he might use to save the day and spare his country from being the meatgrinder it has tragically become.

Africa’s path

Africa is an unlikely place to look because hardly any country suffered the Soviet Union-style breakup. However, the continent offers several examples of countries digging themselves out of or managing conflicts and potentially devasting wars to which their colonial histories predisposed them.

From Cameroon to Somalia and the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic, several countries on the continent still struggle to find common peaceful existence against a legacy of arbitrary, self-serving partitions created by colonial rule. It’s no less a daunting existential struggle than the one currently confronting Ukraine, a smaller sovereign nation bordering a behemoth like Russia.

For example, for many years, Nigeria and Cameroon, with overlapping colonial boundaries, squabbled over the Bakassi peninsula separating them containing large oil and gas reserves. Nigerians, mainly farmers and fishermen, largely populated the area. The Cameroonian authorities claimed it was bequeathed to them by an Anglo-German treaty in the 20th century.

Beyond David vs. Goliath

The point is not the relative military strength of the combatants – whether or not it was a David vs. Goliath matchup like one between Ukraine and Russia. It’s about preventing a dangerous conflict from escalating into a killing field potentially on the scale that we have seen in Ukraine in the last nearly four years.

After decades of dispute and violent clashes between Nigeria and Cameroon, often with casualties in the border towns separating both countries, tensions began to boil over, with sections of Nigeria calling for an outright war. A war between countries would have had dire consequences for the subregion, yet some interests motivated by ego pressed Nigeria to go to war.

Warring neighbours

Nigeria took the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). When President Olusegun Obasanjo received information that it would not go well, he braced himself and rallied the public through the media to prepare for the outcome. After the ICJ ruled against Nigeria, some circles favored ignoring the court and going to war for the sake of the Nigerians rooted in Bakassi, and yes, also for the rich mineral deposits there.

To his credit, Obasanjo resisted the pressure to go to war. With a heavy heart, Nigeria cut its losses and turned the chapter on Bakassi, a strip of land which, even if it had won in a battle, might still have been lost in years of endless conflict.

Sudan, one of Africa’s most resource-rich countries, offers a different but valuable example, which litters the continent, of how winning political freedom or winning the battle may not always result in winning peace and prosperity.

Like Putin like al-Bashir?

As dictators go, there’s probably little to separate Omar al-Bashir and Russian President Vladimir Putin. But unlike al-Bashir, who only yielded to a referendum for the secession of South Sudan at gunpoint, Putin has not asked Zelenskyy to return Ukraine to the former Soviet Union – the game that the Sudanese leaders have tried to play by frustrating South Sudan’s production in the oil-rich region of Abyei. Both countries have managed a complicated and fractious co-existence, bringing relative stability to the region.

Whether in Nigeria, Sudan, or the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic, Africa has had many devastating conflicts, with the situation in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo still dire.

However, compared to its history in the late 1980s and 1990s, the continent has managed relative peace despite internal incompetence and foreign instigations that might have worsened the conflicts. That is what realism teaches.

Hindsight

The Russia-Ukraine war might have been prevented if, in line with the assurances from NATO in the 1990s during talks over German reunification, the Ukrainian president had assured Putin of Ukraine’s neutrality.

That was all Putin asked for: That the US and its allies keep their pledge not to expand eastward or encircle his country. Russia’s pre-emptive seizure of Crimea made it challenging to trust Putin, but Zelenskyy played into his hands by putting all his eggs in the dubious European basket.

Zelenskyy allowed Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden and other NATO leaders in the West to deceive him into believing he would get a carte blanche in the war against Russia. Carte blanches only exist in movies.

African lessons and the Ukraine war bill

Africa’s experience teaches a different, nuanced lesson. From the betrayals of Haile Selassie during Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia to the murder of Patrice Lumumba of Congo, the continent learnt the hard way that only fools test the depth of a river with both feet. Unlike his predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, Zelenskyy was just the fool the West needed.

What has been the cost of the war with Russia? Estimates suggest that about 400,000 Ukrainians, both soldiers and civilians, have been killed in the war, including 12,605 verified civilian deaths reported by the UN.

Also, in contrast to about 450 square kilometres of area captured by Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region, Russia controls 19 percent (or 43,749 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, roughly the size of the US state of Virginia. Yet, the future is still dire.

Something must give

Putin’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and his smash-and-grab are just as detestable as Trump’s pettiness and flippancy. But as petty and detestable as Trump is, he was on point that it would be foolhardy to expect the current war to end without Ukraine giving up anything. Zelenskyy and his backers in Europe must agree that something has to give, and the earlier, the better.

Unlike Africa, which was partitioned by foreign conquest, Europeans have often redrawn the European map by treaty, war, or conquest. Zelenskyy and his backers may kick the can down the road, but that redrawing is about to happen again. Hopefully, Crimea and Eastern Donbas will not be to Ukraine as Alsace and Lorraine were to Germany after World War I, with severe consequences for long-term peace and stability.  

The bitter truth, however, is that for this war to end, Zelenskyy must accept that Ukraine will never be the same again. This is the consequence of the comedian’s tragic act.

 

Ishiekwene, Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP, is the author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It. 

There is rising tension and fear amongst the people and residents of Rivers State, particularly political office holders in the state, following a spate of violent threats by individuals and groups over the series of ultimatum dangling on the state governor, Sir Siminilayi Joseph Fubara.

This is coming on the heels of the one hour and thirty-six minutes judgment by the Supreme Court of Nigeria on the lingering political stalemate in Rivers, dating back to August 2023.

The Apex Court had last Friday, through a five member jurists, made some pronouncements which have caused uneasiness and unsettled pockets of political upheavals in the state.

Amongst some controversial decisions of the Supreme Court, is the order granting unhindered access to the Martyns Amaewhule led 27-members of the state legislature to resume sitting against two different cases on their defection at the lower courts.

Rivers State Governor, Sim Fubara

The suit for the legality or otherwise of the defection of Martyns Amaewhule and his 26 other lawmakers are already before the Federal High Court and the Court of Appeal, and was not a subject of litigation before the Apex Court.

Individuals and groups, including the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria, HURIWA, have separately criticised the Apex Court rulings, describing it as a “Miscarriage of justice and a clear contradiction of established legal precedents.”

The Supreme Court also nullified the local government council election held on October 5, 2024, insisting that the electoral umpire, the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission, RSIEC, did not follow the necessary procedures in organising the polls.

In addition, the Apex Court stopped the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and the Accountant General of the Federation from releasing the monthly allocations due to Rivers State until after the conduct of a fresh election into the state’s 23 LGAs.

Based on the order of the Apex Court for Governor Fubara to represent the 2024 state’s appropriation bill to the Martyns Amaewhule’s legislators, the House of Assembly on Monday gave him a 48 hours ultimatum to comply.

But Rivers government, through its Secretary to the state government, Dr. Tammy Wenike Danagogo denied the receipt of any letter from the House of Assembly up until yesterday, Wednesday, the expiry date of the deadline.

While the controversy over the letter and its ultimatum rages, the state House of Assembly yesterday again issued a series of letters accompanied with a 48-hour ultimatum to the state chief executive and the Chairman of RSIEC, Justice Adulphus Enebeli.

In its latest letter dated March 5, 2025, addressed to the governor, the Legislature directed him to sack all his political appointees, including the 19 commissioners, chairmen, and members of institutions governing councils, boards and parastatals.

According to the legislators, these appointees, particularly the state Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Chief Dagogo, SAN, were not screened and cleared by them in accordance with the constitutional requirements, accusing the governor of several constitutional breaches

The pro-Wike lawmakers also ordered the RSIEC chairman, Justice Adulphus Enebeli, to appear before them within 48 hours to explain details of the proposed state local government election scheduled for Saturday, August 9, 2025.

The Legislature warned the RSIEC chairman that it would invoke the necessary laws, including issuance of a warrant of arrest on him should he fail to honour their invitation.

Justice Enebeli had called a stakeholders meeting at their RSIEC office. along Aba Road, Port Harcourt, where he released the timetable and guidelines for the LGA elections in the state.

Since after last Friday’s Supreme Court judgment, there have been sounds of war drums from all parts of the state and beyond, especially with the 27 lawmakers displaying actions as though they were acting on an already prepared script, well crafted for them.

Both the Ijaw National Congress, INC, and the Ijaw Youth Council, IYC, the umbrella bodies of all elders and youths of Ijaw Land, have separately warned that no harm should be done to their son, Fubara or his office.

Since the current democratic dispensation started in 1999, the upland area of the state had been at the helm of affairs in the state, boasting of four governors, including Dr. Peter Odili, Chief Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, Sir Celestine Omehia, and Chief Ezebunwo Nyesom Wike.

Sir Siminilayi Joseph Fubara, an Ijaw son from the Opobo extraction, is the only governor from the riverine part of the state now in Government House, Port Harcourt, 26 years after.

Viewed against this background, the INC president, Prof. Benjamin Okaba regretted that the Apex Court did not take into cognisance the sacrifices of the Ijaws to the peace, unity, and stability of the state, in its decisions.

Prof. Okaba warned of dire consequences that may follow the removal of Governor Fubara, saying, “Any move to impeach the Rivers State governor will destabilise the Niger Delta region and disrupt oil production.”

According to him, the obvious implications of allowing oil facilities to be disrupted would be too grave on the nation’s economy, and appealed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to urgently intervene and call his FCT Minister to order.

In his words, which was also chorused by Dr. Alaye Theophilus, the president of Ijaw youths, “We cannot fold our hands and watch our first riverine governor in decades being removed from office by a few individuals and the mandate of Rivers people shattered.”

The IYC president cautioned those, “Wishing to use the Supreme Court judgment as a canon folder to impeach the governor should have a rethink,” and asked President Tinubu to choose between a peaceful Niger Delta and Wike and his co-travellers.

A socio-cultural group “We Stand With Sim” urged Amaewhule and his pro-Wike disciples not to misinterpret the Apex Court rulings as a “Death Sentence”, and appealed to them to be cautious in their dealings with the governor in the interest of peace and stability.

From all indications, the pro-Wike’s 27 legislators are bent on having their pounds off flesh from Governor Fubara whose trouble with his political godfather, Wike started in August 2023, just three months after his swearing-in on May 29, 2023.

Although Wike, who had ruled the state for eight years blamed their political differences on alleged destruction of his political structure, Fubara on his part said it was more about the control of the resources of the state.

The political brouhaha got to the climax when on October 30, 2023, Martyns Amaewhule led 26 of his colleagues to defect from their original Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to the All Progressives Congress, APC, following a foiled attempt to impeach Fubara.

To fuel their support base and cause anxiety amongst Governor Fubara’s followers, a kite was flown through online media that Prof. Ngozi Odu, the state deputy governor has already resigned from office, to avert being impeached.

But yesterday evening, the Omoku-born academia turned politician denied resigning from office, assuring that she was still loyal and faithfully committed to joining Fubara to provide Rivers people and residents with the elusive dividends of democracy.

The current scenario allows for rumours, stabbing and backstabbing, with virtually everyone becoming a suspect to one another. The days ahead are still pregnant, even with the governor’ s vow to implement the decisions of the Supreme Court, after perusing the certified true copy of the judgment.

Heyford is Managing Editor, Politics, of The Southern Examiner