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![[OPINION] Pastors, Politicians, and the gang-up against the poor! - Emmanuel Aziken](/media/k2/items/cache/f2d2aa54e47f972e269b9cbde3be690d_L.jpg)
In a week that the country’s political landscape reverberated with the most shocking defection to the ruling party so far, it was no less of a shock that one of the leading lights of the Nigerian charismatic movement was also busy mobilizing against the poor in our midst.
Whatever, the reason behind the defection of the 2023 vice presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa remains a matter of conjecture. Remarkably, he has not gone out to denounce his former party besides the claim by his PDP campaign spokesman, Charles Aniagwu that the PDP has lost taste.
According to Aniagwu when the taste of the palm wine changes the pattern of drinking will change.
However, for Pastor David Ibiyeomie of Salvation Ministries, Port Harcourt, his shocking assertion that Jesus boycotted the poor is unarguably one of the shocking fallouts of the convulsion that has taken up the Church of Christ by the cankerworm of prosperity teaching.
Even more shocking was that following his initial teaching to his disciples, that he came forward to double down on his fallacious assertion.
Given that he heads what he calls Salvation Ministries, it is fitting to say that his perspective of salvation is defined by riches and not necessarily sin, which was the primary concern of Christ’s coming to the earth.
As the former Jewish law exponent, Paul wrote to his disciple, Timothy, “This is a faithful saying, and worthy of all acceptation, that Christ Jesus came into the world to save sinners; of whom I am chief.”
Pastor Ibiyeomie’s claim that Jesus boycotted the poor and did not visit them is particularly ridiculous and rooted in a beclouded revelation. He apparently forgot that Jesus was born in a manger in the midst of goats and other animals because his parents could not find a room in the available hotels in Bethlehem. What could indicate poverty worse than being born among animals? That was what Jesus undertook to bring salvation to mankind.
That Ibiyeomie cannot find any example of Jesus visiting the poor did not mean that he did not visit the poor in their conditions. John the Beloved in his book (21:25), wrote: Jesus also did many other things. If they were all written down, I suppose the whole world could not contain the books that would be written.
It is, as such, incongruous for one to assert that because he did not see Jesus visiting the very poor in their homes, that such meant he detested them or their conditions. Where we did not find Him visiting the poor in their homes (maybe because they didn’t have homes) but he went out to meet them like the woman who had spent all her money on physicians. Where else but on the street could he have found the woman who spent all her money on physicians? Jesus allowed the poor to swamp him contrary to Ibiyeomie who would not want us to go out to be with the poor.
Pastor Ibiyeomie’s focus on wealth and riches reminds us of the charge by Paul on how the pursuit of riches caused many to forsake the cross. Writing in Philippians 2:21 he charges ”All the others care only for themselves and not for what matters to Jesus Christ.” NLT
Going further in Philippians 3:19, he cautions the Christians in Philippi against those who were against the gospel of self-denial and death to the cross. He said, “They are headed for destruction. Their god is their appetite, they brag about shameful things, and they think only about this life here on earth.”
It is the prayer of this correspondent that all Men of God, lift up their eyes above the trappings of the earth and look unto the plans of God and stop bragging about their cathedrals and vain things.
Those who brag about boycotting the poor and boasting about what they have on earth and not what they have done in bringing many sons into glory have a day to give account.
Contextualising our walk on earth on the material sphere defeats the essence of the incarnation which was essentially to defeat the works of the devil. The principal work of the devil is sin. I give it to Pastor Ibiyemoie that sin ravages the poor. But it also ravages the camp of the rich around him, if not more.
The story of the rich young ruler concludes with Jesus giving a serious caution to those who put wealth above every other consideration.
”How hard it is for the rich to enter the kingdom of God!”
It is a spiritually infantile postulation for any spiritually discerning person to relate with people based on their wealth. The bible tells us that riches have wings and can fly away in a moment. Such people judge people on sight and not by faith which is the framework for spiritual exercise.
Jesus told us that the poor will always be in our midst and he never warned us to boycott them. Pastor Ibiyeomie’s revelation is a strange fire that must be quenched.
James the apostle warned against discriminating against the poor in James 2:1-3, saying that the rich should not be given a privileged sitting position over the poor in the congregation. It is fitting to conclude that with the oratory that many pastors have, that many of them are just like Nigerian politicians, determined to suppress the poor, or like Pastor Ibiyeomie to put them out of sight.
That is why the fundamentals of good governance are put aside in the embrace of political capital and survival. They lie shamefacedly saying bad is good. Now, pastors are about giving spiritual resonance to their claim!
![[OPINION] 2027 presidency: A north vs south contest? - Temidayo Akinsuyi](/media/k2/items/cache/d7cf5aa4280153385751b74ee914efe9_L.jpg)
A few days ago, I had a conversation with one of the senior leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who was in London for a medical check-up. During our meeting, I sought his views on the latest developments in the party and who will likely emerge as the presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections. His response: “As you are aware, the PDP governors already said they won’t be part of any coalition but will rebuild the party into a formidable opposition. Well, if they are able to keep the party together and Atiku didn’t join the SDP, he is our best bet for now.”
The next question is, does Atiku stand a chance against a master political strategist and sitting president like President Bola Tinubu, who will likely seek reelection for another term? My host replied, “Yes, I think he stands a chance when you consider (President Bola) Tinubu’s abysmal performance and the opposition from the North, especially on issues relating to anti-North policies and (alleged) marginalisation. Don’t forget, Tinubu got the support of the majority of the northern governors to win the APC presidential ticket in 2022. They also worked massively for him in the 2023 presidential election.”
He continued, “However, even Tinubu knows that many of the northern governors and lawmakers are unhappy with him over the tax reform bill and other policies and will work against him, even though they may be shouting ‘Sai Tinubu’ in public now. I believe Atiku is in talks with Peter Obi, and he wants a repeat of the joint ticket they had in 2019. Obi has a huge followership among the youths, who constitute a greater percentage of the voting populace. If Obi can bring that to the table and Atiku also delivers the North and some southern states, then the deal is done. Tinubu will also want to consolidate his base in the South. So, it is likely going to be a north vs south contest.”
After our meeting, so many thoughts kept ringing in my head, especially the ‘north vs south’ contest which he mentioned. How does that bode for Nigeria’s unity? We are yet to recover from the deep-seated animosity and ethnic rivalries that permeated the entire landscape during the last general elections, and now some people are ready to deepen it further with a north vs south political battle. Just recently, these leaders in their Easter and Sallah messages enjoined Nigerians to shun division and embrace unity and co-existence. They also called for a renewed sense of national cohesion and empathy while also urging the citizens to rise above divisions and work collectively towards peace and progress in the country. Yet, because of insatiable lust for power, these same people are prepared to throw that unity to the wastebin and are scheming towards an election that will further polarise an already divided country.
Let me begin with Atiku, Nigeria’s vice president from 1999 to 2007 during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. Atiku has been contesting presidential elections since 1993, and he is likely to do so again in 2027. Unlike before, when he jetted off to Dubai after elections and resurfaced after four years, Atiku has played the role of an opposition figure very well since the conclusion of the 2023 elections, constantly checkmating every decision taken by the Tinubu administration. However, from a candid point of view, Atiku’s desire to become Nigeria’s president is driven more by desperation than patriotism. He mouths the need for unity in the country on festive occasions, but in his heart, he is ready to jettison that unity for his selfish ambition.
The last presidential election reinforced my belief that Atiku is not a nationalist as he claims. There is an unwritten agreement that power should rotate between the north and south in the spirit of fairness, equity and justice. After a northerner, Muhammadu Buhari, was about to complete two terms of eight years, Atiku, who is from the northern state of Adamawa, threw his hat in the ring. If Atiku had won the election and served two terms, it would mean the north would have been in power for 16 consecutive years. How will that engender unity in a heavily polarised country? Will Atiku, in his heart of hearts, allow another southerner to become president after another southerner has completed eight years? Despite winning the presidential ticket of the PDP, Atiku’s party was heavily polarised, and he lost the main election. Just like he did with the Biblical Pharaoh, God ‘hardened’ the heart of Atiku, and he refused all the entreaties of party stakeholders, especially the G-5 governors led by Nyesom Wike. The rest, as they say, is history.
Atiku, who will be 80 years old in 2027, lost two golden opportunities to become Nigeria’s president. The first was in 2003 when the majority of the governors of the then ruling party, PDP, agreed to back him in the party’s presidential primary against his principal, Olusegun Obasanjo. The old, wily Obasanjo knew he had to stoop in order to conquer, and he did just that – he knelt down before Atiku and begged him to allow him to run for a second term.
Giving a vivid picture of what transpired then, Nobel laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka, as published by TheCable in the August 3, 2018 edition, said: “Before the PDP primaries in January 2003, Obasanjo got everyone he knew could reach me on the surface of the earth, including Yemi Ogunbiyi and my son, to get me to help him intercede when it was clear that (Abubakar) Atiku was in a position to take his job. He knew Atiku had a lot of regard for me and called me ‘Uncle’.
“The pressure was intense. Of course, I could not have knelt before Atiku, not to embark on a course of action that would lead to his boss’ disgrace. But I can confirm to you that Obasanjo, as president, knelt down before Atiku so that he would not lose his job. But I warned Atiku that for making Obasanjo kneel down for you, be sure you would have to pay heavily for that. I guess my warning came to pass if you remember Atiku’s dramatic change of fortune once Obasanjo was sworn in for a second term of office.”
The second golden opportunity missed by Atiku was in the last presidential election when Atiku refused entreaties by major stakeholders in the PDP to respect the zoning formula in the party, which states that the presidential candidate and national chairman cannot come from the same region. Atiku is from the North-East (Adamawa), while the then national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, is from the north-central (Benue). The director-general of the presidential campaign, Aminu Tambuwal, is also from the north-west (Sokoto). In the interest of unity, the stakeholders want Ayu to resign so that another chairman from the southern part of the country can step in, but Atiku disagreed.
Also, the PDP stakeholders pleaded with Atiku to field Wike as his running mate. After a series of meetings both locally and abroad, Atiku breached the agreement and settled for Ifeanyi Okowa, the immediate past governor of Delta State. Now, Okowa has dumped Atiku and the PDP and has gone to pitch his tent with President Tinubu’s APC.
Speaking on Channels Television recently, Governor Seyi Makinde said the PDP also made a grave mistake by handing the presidential ticket, national chairman slot, and office of the director general of the presidential campaign to members from the northern region only. He said the exclusion of southerners from the three major slots dealt a self-inflicted blow to the PDP, which culminated in the loss suffered by the party in the poll.
How can you breach the rotation agreement between the north and south as well as the zoning formula within your party, and then convince Nigerians that you have the capability to unite the country? That is food for thought for Alhaji Atiku.
As for President Tinubu, he granted an interview in the ThisDay publication of April 13th, 1997, where he declared that ‘I don’t believe in One Nigeria’. The interview resurfaced online during the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, but his loyalists claimed that he was quoted out of context, especially when you consider the fact that as governor of Lagos State, he ran a pan-Nigerian cabinet which included many non-Yoruba-speaking people.
However, since becoming president, questions have been raised about his appointments, which some Nigerians believe are heavily skewed in favour of the south-west. To counter this, his media aides released the list of ‘all’ the appointments made by the president, but also quickly withdrew it after many loopholes were discovered. Sunday Dare promised to provide an updated list very soon, but he has yet to do so three weeks later.
Having lost Lagos, Osun, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Abia, Plateau, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Anambra and Imo in the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu cannot afford to take chances again if he desires to seek re-election in 2027. It is glaring that many of the northern stakeholders who worked for him in the 2023 presidential election will not do so again. This singular reason explains the recent actions taken by the president in Lagos during the Obasa impeachment imbroglio. Tinubu weighed the political value of Obasa on one hand and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and the 36 lawmakers on the other. His verdict? Obasa, one of his die-hard loyalists, has more political value than Sanwo-Olu and the lawmakers. He therefore did everything possible to restore Obasa to his position.
The president also did the same in Rivers during the battle between the former governor of the state, Nyesom Wike, who is now the minister of the FCT, and the current governor, Siminalayi Fubara. Many analysts believe that Tinubu sided with Wike, especially given the fact that only Fubara was suspended for six months while Wike remained in office. Last week, it was reported that Fubara met with the president in London, and they allegedly had an agreement that Fubara’s sins would be forgiven if he joins the APC. Now, Delta state is already in the kitty with the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor, Okowa. We are also told to expect more defections into the APC in the days ahead.
If things continue this way, then, as rightly predicted, the 2027 presidential election will be a serious battle between the north and south, a complete departure from the June 12, 1993 presidential election, which to date remains the freest, fairest and most credible election in Nigeria’s history. Is that the future our leaders desire for our beloved country and generations unborn?
Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of Daily Independent, currently studies sustainability communications strategies at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
![[OPINION] Heightened Global Uncertainties and the Nigerian Economy - Obinna Chima](/media/k2/items/cache/e8a7b184e916ec3fdc50ca27c59ee20a_M.jpg)
Global economic leadersCOMMA WHO gathered in Washington DC for the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Spring Meetings which commenced this week, have been focused on how to navigate the tension created by the United States’ President, Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, ongoing trade wars, inflation fears and new worries about the prospect of a global recession.
As a journalist covering these meetings, it is visible that both multilateral institutions are presently under pressure from the Trump-led United States – their biggest financial contributor – as representatives of both organisations ensure they avoid confrontations or even questions from reporters that would pit them against the administration. Even criticism from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who demanded IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President Ajay Banga refocus on core missions to gain the Trump administration’s trust, will not provoke them.
Already, the IMF has slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.
According to the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WE0), global growth forecast was cut by 0.5 percent to 2.8 percent for 2025, and by 0.3 percent to three percent for 2026, from its January forecast that growth would reach 3.3 percent in both years. The IMF estimated that inflation was expected to decline more slowly than expected in January, given the impact of tariffs, reaching 4.3 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, with “notable” upward revisions for the U.S. and other advanced economies.
“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset,” IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said.
The IMF said the swift escalation of trade tensions and “extremely high levels” of uncertainty about future policies would have a significant impact on global economic activity.
For Nigeria, the economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026 were slashed downwards, reflecting the growing global uncertainties and sustained weaknesses in oil prices.
According to the WEO, Nigeria is now expected to grow by three percent in 2025 and 2.7 percent in 2026, down from its WEO forecasts of 3.2 percent and 3 percent, respectively, issued in January. The Fund attributed the downgrade to a mix of domestic challenges and worsening global conditions, including trade tensions, slowing demand from advanced economies, and a sharp decline in crude oil prices.
To Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, as the ripple effects of US’ reciprocal tariffs continue to reverberate, the reforms introduced since President Bola Tinubu assumed office have placed the economy in a stronger position than anticipated to absorb potential shocks. He listed reforms under the current administration to include fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, reset of monetary policy, elimination of Ways and Means, among others.
“Nigeria hasn’t suffered from the same reciprocal-type regime pressures as other economies because ours has been paused. We’re in a better position today due to the reforms and progress we’ve undertaken. In Nigeria, I believe we can attract private sector investment. The progress we’ve made so far is significant, and our near-term priorities are taking shape amid widespread macroeconomic uncertainty around the globe.
“Under the leadership of the President, we have successfully implemented reforms that are quite unprecedented. These are reforms we’ve spoken about for years; reforms we promised we would complete, and this time, we stayed the course. Now we can confidently say that we have implemented difficult but necessary reforms,” Edun told a gathering of foreign investors and investment bankers in Washington DC.
According to him, the fuel subsidy was a major reform, which he put at about five percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.
“This, combined with the reforms on the monetary side, such as putting in place efficient market systems and enabling price discovery, not just in foreign exchange, but also in petroleum products, has created the foundation for renewed industrialisation in Nigeria.
“We are targeting seven per cent annual growth, and this is a commitment President Tinubu is serious about. We believe that level of growth is essential to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty. We are pushing for inclusive growth. With macroeconomic stability largely restored, we are expanding our focus on agriculture, infrastructure, especially digital and finance. This includes crowding in the private sector at a time of constrained fiscal space. By addressing agriculture, infrastructure, and financial access, we believe Nigeria is now firmly on the path towards a seven per cent annual GDP growth exactly where we need to be,” he added.
One thing that also excite investors about the country is the revelation that its economic managers are in talks with JP Morgan for it to be admitted back into the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index.
To the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s return to orthodox monetary policy is beginning to yield tangible results as he cited gains in macroeconomic stability, investor confidence, and improvements in Nigeria’s global credit ratings.
“The numbers speak for themselves. The difficult reforms we’ve undertaken are beginning to yield results. One of the most important decisions we made was to pursue orthodox monetary policy, an approach we were firmly committed to and have no intention of compromising on.
“As a result of this policy stance, we’ve been able to stabilise macroeconomic indicators. Today, we’re in a much better position than we were previously,” Cardoso, who spoke after Edun said.
Echoing the position of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy on Nigeria’s buffers against global volatility, Cardoso noted that while the country was not immune to global financial shocks, its exposure has been comparatively moderate. Cardoso stressed that rebuilding trust and confidence was central to the CBN’s agenda.
“There’s a common thread running through all our actions – building confidence. We’re not claiming perfection, but we are making real progress. Confidence in the naira is strengthening and confidence in our policy direction is growing. And, perhaps most importantly, there is a renewed sense of hope in the country’s economic future.
“Nigeria’s credit ratings have improved, which signals that our reforms are working. But we remain realistic, we’re still navigating a highly uncertain global environment. Anyone who followed the recent World Bank and IMF meetings would know that economic uncertainty is a global theme, and Nigeria is not exempt,” he added.
From the foregoing, just like the global economy, the Nigerian economy is at a critical juncture. As the world grapples with a confluence of escalating uncertainties, the combined impact casts an ominous shadow over Nigeria’s economic outlook. To navigate this turbulent landscape and secure a prosperous future for its burgeoning population, Nigeria must adopt a proactive, diversified, and strategically agile approach.
Amidst these challenges lies an opportunity for Nigeria to chart a more resilient and sustainable economic path. Diversification of the economy away from its over-reliance on oil remains paramount. Investing strategically in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology can create new avenues for growth, employment, and export earnings, reducing vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations.
Strengthening domestic production capacity is equally crucial. By fostering a conducive business environment, improving infrastructure, and providing access to finance, Nigeria can reduce its dependence on imports and build a more self-reliant economy. Investing in human capital through education and skills development will be essential to drive innovation and productivity across all sectors.
Additionally, Nigeria must be on the driving seat in advancing intra-African trade and ensure that the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement becomes operational.
Finally, the central bank must maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance and remain vigilant so as not to be caught flat-footed at a ttime like this and must ensure that it deploys its policy instruments proactively.
![[OPINION] In 2027, Tinubu Won’t Win; The Opposition Will Lose - Farooq A. Kperogi](/media/k2/items/cache/8db8435a0cc8e74028c2a71616e36326_M.jpg)
If economic health, social vitality, and the raw pulse of public opinion were the only indicators relied upon to prognosticate the chances of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reelection in 2027, I would say with cocksure certitude that he is condemned to be a one-term president.
Not even the most hopelessly unthinking defenders of the Tinubu presidency can deny that his reign so far has been defined by unrelieved economic hardship, staggering inflation, a collapsing naira, and a deepening sense of despair among Nigerians. In other words, the objective conditions for his political repudiation are overripe.
Nonetheless, elections, especially in Nigeria, are not won on the basis of public frustration alone. They are won — or lost — on the strength of political organization, elite consensus, strategic emotional manipulation, and the ability to convert popular anger into electoral mathematics. Call those the subjective conditions of electoral triumph, if you like. And this is where the tragedy of the opposition begins.
The opposition is undisciplined, hopelessly spineless, irredeemably fragmented, strategically bankrupt, and is falling cheaply into the trap set for it by Tinubu.
First, the opposition is shaping up to be disappointingly provincial. It is dominated by elements from a slice of the North that seems to be suffering from withdrawal symptoms from loss of political power. This is reminiscent of the narrow-minded opposition to former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s second term, which helped him to create a coalition of southern Nigerian, Christian northerners, along with portions of the North that felt excluded from the regional mainstream.
Perhaps the most egregious expression of naïve, historically inaccurate, self-sabotaging provincial self-importance from the region came five days ago from Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former appointee of the Tinubu administration who, before his sojourn in the administration, was a higher-up at the Northern Elders’ Forum.
“In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands,” Dr. Baba-Ahmed said in a viral post. “If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support.”
Well, Olusegun Obasanjo was elected for a second term in 2003 without “northern” support. I inserted scare quotes around “northern” because, although Baba-Hakeem appeared to be ecumenical in his conception of the North (he referenced “Muslims, Christians, Fulani, Baju, Mangu” — the Baju and Mangu being ethnic groups from southern Kaduna and Plateau — indicating pan-Northernism), we all know that the North has never been a monolith and is often riven by religion.
When people like Baba-Ahmed talk of the “North” in such tyrannizing, self-aggrandizing terms, they often mean a particular part of the North.
Obasanjo deployed the perks of incumbency to mobilize the entire South, appeal to the Christian North, and to make offers to parts of the Muslim North that Muhammadu Buhari didn’t consider “northern” enough to deserve his electoral entreaties. Even if the election wasn’t rigged, Buhari didn’t stand a ghost of a chance of winning the 2003 election.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan used Obasanjo’s 2003 template in 2011 to defeat Muhammadu Buhari. But in 2015, Jonathan lost the Southwest to Buhari, which led to Jonathan’s loss and Buhari's epochal, unexampled triumph.
This shows that no region can win a national election without the other, making Baba-Hakeem’s self-lionizing boast a rhetorical gift to Bola Tinubu. We’re already seeing its effect.
Several southerners who are wriggling in the torment of Tinubu’s economic policies have chosen to rather live with the sting of his policies than embrace the provincial arrogance of people like Baba-Ahmed who arrogate to themselves the exclusive power to determine who is president and who isn’t.
Similarly, in Nigeria’s informal power-sharing arrangement, the expectation is that after eight years of a northern presidency that ended in 2023, no northerner should be president again for the next eight years. But the northern opposition to Tinubu seems to be anchored on a desire for premature power grab back to the North.
Unless the northern politicians who have stuck out their necks to oppose Tinubu support another southerner with widespread appeal, their opposition will only strengthen Tinubu’s southern coalition and buy him sympathy from parts of the north that don't enjoy regional political hegemony.
This is particularly so because since the start of the Fourth Republic, the South has never expressed opposition to northern presidencies by sponsoring southern candidates. The South supported Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, in 2019. Umar Musa Yar’adua’s main opponent in 2007 wasn’t a southerner. It was Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner.
But when it was the South’s turn to get presidential power in 2023, the North presented a formidable candidate in the PDP. In fact, the APC hierarchy, with the support of Muhammadu Buhari, settled on former Senate President Ahmad Lawan as the “consensus candidate.” That was embarrassing.
Already, there are insinuations that PDP governors who are defecting to APC are doing so not just because they are being bludgeoned into it through subtle EFCC prosecutorial threats but also because they fear that their party’s standard-bearer in 2027 will be a northerner.
I understand the dilemma of the northern politicians in opposition. Should they support a southern candidate to dislodge Tinubu, such a candidate would, as sure as tomorrow’s date, seek a second term. That would defer the presidential aspirations of the northern politicians by eight years instead of four.
If they sit by listlessly as Tinubu shoves them to the margins of the orbit of power, they will be like fish flailing out of water. They will be so disoriented and weakened that by the time presidential power drifts back to the North, they probably won’t even have the strength to fight for a place.
Northern opposition politicians like Nasir El-Rufai also don’t seem to realize that the Social Democratic Party (SDP) they have embraced as the vehicle to displace Tinubu is, in fact, Tinubu’s spare car.
It is fully fueled, tuned, and parked in his garage for contingencies. As early as April 2022, BusinessDay reported that Tinubu had opened backchannel talks with the SDP and explored it as a fallback platform in case his APC ambitions stalled.
In other words, the opposition is not commandeering an independent vehicle; they are clambering into a car whose engine hums to Tinubu’s touch and whose keys he can reclaim at will. They are, quite literally, riding shotgun in a machine built for their defeat. Unfortunately, he has also hijacked their car, the PDP!
Adewole Adebayo, SDP’s 2023 presidential candidate, unintentionally echoed this sentiment a few days ago when he used the metaphor of a car to send a not-so-subtle dig at El-Rufai.
“As for the coalition, we’re listening to them,” Adebayo said. “What we don’t want to be—we don’t want to be a get-away car for a conspiracy and robbery we did not plan. So, if you planned something somewhere and you want to use the SDP as a get-away car, that’s not available.”
Adebayo added another pointed dart to El-Rufai when he said, “if the coalition is a crying center for disappointed Tinubu followers, they should go back to Tinubu who gave the promise to them and resolve their differences there.”
In the end, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s greatest electoral asset may not be the loyalty of the masses, the success of his policies, or even the cunning of his political machinery. It may well be the disarray, hubris, provincialism, and strategic myopia of his opposition.
They are too divided to form a coalition, too impatient to build trust across regions, and too blinded by immediate resentments to think in terms of long-term electoral triumph.
In 2027, Tinubu may stagger into a second term not because he inspires, but because he survives; not because he triumphs, but because those who should have dethroned him will, through a toxic mix of arrogance and amateurism, hand him victory on a silver platter.
It won’t be Tinubu who wins; it will be the opposition that loses. And Nigeria, trapped in the wreckage of broken possibilities, will pay the price.
[OPINION] Nigeria’s Banking and Financial Services Sector in 2030 – Impact of AI and Emerging Technologies - Sonny Iroche
Admin![[OPINION] Nigeria’s Banking and Financial Services Sector in 2030 – Impact of AI and Emerging Technologies - Sonny Iroche](/media/k2/items/cache/77ca073734ba530435f0b852fd48c6ba_M.jpg)
Nigeria’s banking and financial services sector is undergoing a rapid digital transformation, setting the stage for a markedly different landscape by 2030. Driven by a young, tech-savvy population and a vibrant fintech ecosystem, the country is going to be leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies to reshape how financial services are delivered. Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest economy with a population projected to exceed 260 million by 2030 , giving it a huge addressable market for digital finance. In recent years, mobile connectivity and fintech innovation have already begun to loosen the grip of traditional banking models, accelerating financial inclusion and introducing new services. This report provides a data-driven predictive analysis of Nigeria’s banking sector trajectory toward 2030, focusing on the integration and impact of AI and key technologies. It examines major technological trends (mobile banking, blockchain, digital lending, AI in customer service and fraud detection, etc.), contrasts implications for consumer vs. corporate banking, evaluates economic and regulatory enablers, and compares Nigeria’s progress with other African and global markets. The goal is to present a comprehensive outlook – supported by current data, expert forecasts, and emerging trends – on how Nigeria’s financial services will evolve over the rest of the decade.
Key Technological Trends Shaping the Future (2025–2030)
Technology is the primary catalyst for change in Nigeria’s banking sector. Several key tech trends are expected to drive innovation and competition through 2030, fundamentally altering service delivery in both retail and corporate banking:
• Mobile Banking & Digital Payments: Mobile banking has become ubiquitous in Nigeria’s retail finance. Approximately 39% of Nigerian adults now use mobile banking services, according to EFInA, reflecting a 40% usage growth over the past five years . Smartphone penetration and widespread USSD/mobile apps have enabled customers to transfer funds, pay bills, and access accounts without visiting branches. The Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) reported a 128% year-on-year surge in mobile transaction volume in early 2022 , and the total number of mobile banking transactions skyrocketed from about 315 million in 2019 to over 10.7 billion in 2023 . This explosive growth illustrates Nigeria’s leap towards a cash-lite society. By 2030, mobile platforms are expected to handle an overwhelming majority of payment transactions, supported by near-universal mobile phone access and the expansion of agent banking networks into rural areas. Digital wallets and fintech payment apps (e.g. Paga, OPay) as well as banks’ own mobile apps will likely be the dominant channels for everyday banking. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has actively pushed a cashless policy to reduce cash usage and improve efficiency, which has accelerated the shift to e-payments . We anticipate that by 2030, Nigeria will approach universal financial access largely through mobile accounts, with cash usage greatly diminished in urban centers. Mobile banking will continue evolving with features like near-instant transfers, QR code payments, and integration into “super apps” that combine banking with e-commerce and other services.
• Digital Lending and Alternative Credit: Digital lending has emerged as a critical fintech segment in Nigeria, providing quick, collateral-free loans via mobile apps to consumers and small businesses. Fintech lenders leverage alternative data (mobile phone records, social data, transaction history) and AI-driven credit scoring to underwrite loans within minutes – a sharp contrast to the slow, paperwork-intensive processes of traditional banks. This innovation addresses a huge credit gap; banks historically have low lending penetration in retail and SME markets. Industry analysts predict that by 2030, fintechs could dominate Nigeria’s personal and SME lending market unless banks aggressively digitize their lending models . Already, digital lenders like Carbon and Renmoney partner with banks or operate independently to reach underserved borrowers. We expect more Bank-Fintech collaborations in this space – for example, banks integrating fintech credit platforms or acquiring successful lenders – to expand credit access. The regulatory environment is also adapting: the government has begun issuing guidelines for digital lending to curb predatory practices and improve transparency. By 2030, digital lending is poised to be mainstream, with most consumers able to obtain micro-loans or “Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)” financing instantly from their phones. Indeed, Nigeria’s BNPL market is forecast to grow steadily at double-digit CAGR through 2030 . In the corporate segment, digitization of credit processes and supply-chain financing will similarly speed up loan approvals for businesses. Overall, faster credit decisioning via AI and data analytics will help close Nigeria’s credit gap and support economic growth, with traditional banks either adapting to these models or ceding ground to fintech upstarts.
• Blockchain and Cryptocurrency: Despite regulatory pushback, Nigeria is one of the world’s leaders in cryptocurrency adoption. As of 2023, Nigeria ranked second globally on the Chainalysis Crypto Adoption Index and led Africa in raw crypto transaction volume . This popularity is driven by citizens using crypto as an inflation hedge, for remittances, and as an alternative store of value amid currency devaluation and capital controls. Bitcoin and stablecoins have become especially common for saving and peer-to-peer transfers in Nigeria’s informal economy. Regulators have taken a cautious stance – the CBN barred banks from facilitating crypto trades in 2021, even as it launched the eNaira (Nigeria’s own central bank digital currency) in October 2021. Uptake of the eNaira has been slow (less than 1% of Nigerians used it in the first year) , but it signifies the central bank’s recognition of blockchain’s potential. By 2030, we expect a more mature and balanced integration of blockchain technology. Fintech firms are already using blockchain for cross-border payments and remittances, bypassing slow correspondent banking networks . If a clear regulatory framework emerges, banks too could leverage distributed ledger technology for trade finance, secure document management, and inter-bank settlements. We anticipate that cryptocurrency will remain popular among Nigerians – possibly even more so if macroeconomic instability persists – and by 2030 the government may regulate and tax crypto activities rather than prohibit them, following global trends. Nigeria’s experience could mirror that of other markets where initial resistance gave way to regulated coexistence of crypto exchanges and traditional finance. Additionally, blockchain-based solutions (smart contracts, decentralized finance platforms) might see niche adoption in Nigeria’s corporate banking for things like supply chain financing and transparent record-keeping, provided legal frameworks evolve. Overall, blockchain innovations are set to contribute to a more inclusive and efficient financial system, even as authorities work to mitigate risks like fraud and money laundering.
• Artificial Intelligence in Banking (Customer Service & Fraud Detection): AI is increasingly embedded in Nigerian banking operations, and this will deepen significantly by 2030. A global survey found 77% of banking professionals believe AI will spell the difference between success and failure for financial institutions . In Nigeria, banks are already adopting AI-powered solutions to improve customer experience, automate processes, and enhance security. For instance, major banks have introduced AI virtual assistants or chatbots on popular channels (like WhatsApp and web platforms) to handle customer inquiries 24/7. Notably, UBA’s chatbot “Leo” (launched 2019) and Zenith Bank’s “ZiVA” (launched 2023) allow customers to check balances, transfer funds, and get support via conversational AI . These virtual assistants have revolutionized customer service, enabling instant, personalized responses at scale. By 2030, AI-driven chatbots and voice assistants are expected to handle a majority of routine customer interactions in retail banking, drastically reducing wait times and operational costs. Banks will likely use natural language processing (NPL) and possibly integrate generative AI to offer even more human-like assistance and financial advice (for example, AI-based personal finance coaches).
Beyond customer service, AI and machine learning (ML) are becoming indispensable for fraud detection and risk management. Nigerian banks face frequent fraud attempts – from card fraud to cyber-attacks – especially as digital transactions increase. AI systems can analyze transaction patterns in real time to flag anomalies. In fact, fraud detection is one of the top use cases for AI in banking globally: 58% of banks report extensive use of AI for fraud detection, according to an Economist Intelligence Unit survey . Nigerian financial institutions are following suit by deploying machine learning models to monitor for suspicious activities and identity theft, helping to curb fraud losses. By 2030, we project that virtually all major Nigerian banks and payment providers will employ advanced AI algorithms to safeguard transactions, with capabilities to instantly block or alert on fraudulent behavior – a necessity for trust in a fully digital banking ecosystem. Additionally, AI will support credit risk analysis (e.g. automated loan credit scoring), compliance (anti-money-laundering pattern recognition), and hyper-personalization of services. As data analytics capabilities grow, banks can offer personalized product recommendations and financial planning tips to customers based on AI analysis of their behavior. Globally, it’s projected that by 2030 AI integration could save financial institutions over $1 trillion in costs, and banks may reduce 22% of their operating expenses through AI efficiencies . Nigerian banks are poised to capture these benefits – by the end of the decade AI will be deeply woven into the fabric of banking operations, from front-office to back-office, driving massive gains in productivity and cost-effectiveness.
• Open Banking and Fintech Ecosystem: An important catalyst for technological disruption in Nigeria is the move toward open banking and greater bank–fintech collaboration. In March 2023, Nigeria became the first country in Africa to issue open banking operational guidelines, outlining standards for secure data sharing via APIs . This regulatory framework compels traditional banks to securely open up customer data (with consent) to third-party fintech firms, fostering the development of customer-centric products and services . By 2030, open banking is expected to greatly broaden consumer choice and enable a rich fintech ecosystem: for example, budgeting apps aggregating accounts, alternative credit scoring services pulling bank data, or payment initiation services rivaling traditional bank transfers. The early adoption of open banking in Nigeria is a strategic advantage, likely to spur competition and innovation in a way similar to the UK and EU where such policies have been in place. We foresee the lines between banks and fintechs blurring as a result. Already, the mindset is shifting from competition to collaboration – banks contribute regulatory know-how and customer trust, while fintechs contribute agility and digital innovation . By 2030, it will be common to see strategic partnerships (or even mergers) where banks provide the balance sheet and licenses and fintech startups provide the technology platforms. Indeed, this trend has begun; for example, traditional institutions partnering with payment fintechs (like Access Bank’s partnership with Paystack) to extend services . Meanwhile, Nigeria’s fintech sector itself is booming: as of early 2025 the country hosted over 430 fintech startups (a >70% surge in a few years), and the sector attracted more than $2 billion in investment in 2024 alone . This robust ecosystem – covering payments, lending, wealth tech, insurtech, and more – will continue to expand into new niches. We expect by 2030 the emergence of “super apps” and ecosystem plays that integrate multiple services (payments, banking, e-commerce, ride-hailing, etc.) into one customer app experience . Fintech super-apps like OPay and PalmPay are already growing rapidly, and by 2030 they could rival banks in customer reach, especially among younger demographics. Furthermore, more traditional banks may launch digital-only sub-brands or mimic fintech user experience to stay relevant. All these developments mean that by 2030 Nigeria will have a highly interoperable and innovative financial services environment, where consumers can seamlessly use a mix of bank and non-bank services tailored to their needs.
Traditional banks in Nigeria may be required by the CBN or out of strategic necessity to increase their AI capabilities by increased AI capacity-building on their boards and executive management, by creating the C-Suite position of Chief AI officers and AI proficient board members.
Consumer vs. Corporate Banking Segments – Impact and Opportunities
The technological trends above will impact consumer (retail) banking and corporate/wholesale banking in different ways. We analyze each segment’s outlook toward 2030:
Consumer Banking Revolution
For the retail consumer, banking by 2030 in Nigeria will be predominantly digital, convenient, and inclusive. Mobile banking and fintech services are expected to bring millions of previously unbanked Nigerians into the formal financial system. Notably, Nigeria still had a sizable financially excluded population (estimated 30+ million adults in the mid-2020s), but this is changing quickly . The CBN’s aggressive financial inclusion drive – targeting 95% inclusion of adults – combined with mobile wallet proliferation means rural and low-income consumers will have far greater access to accounts and credit by 2030 . Fintech mobile money operators (including telecom-led Payment Service Banks like MTN’s MoMo and Airtel’s SmartCash) are extending services to underserved areas through agent networks and simple phone interfaces. We anticipate that by 2030, virtually all Nigerians who own a phone can perform basic banking activities (payments, savings, credit) digitally, narrowing the urban-rural gap. The user experience for consumers will also dramatically improve. Banks and fintechs are investing heavily in user-centric design – one of the battlegrounds is customer experience as noted by industry observers . By 2030, expect personalized banking apps that use AI to provide financial insights, budgeting tips, and product recommendations tailored to each individual’s behavior. Customer service will be on-demand via AI chatbots and video banking, making banking a 24/7 accessible service. Consumers will also benefit from more competition and choices: switching accounts or using multiple providers for various needs will be easier under open banking. For example, a customer might use a traditional bank for a salary account, a fintech app for lending, and a cryptocurrency wallet for savings – all integrated on their smartphone. Trust and security will be crucial to sustain this consumer revolution; banks are likely to emphasize robust cybersecurity and fraud guarantees as a selling point. Overall, the retail banking segment is moving towards a “digital-first” model – fewer branch visits (branches may transform into advisory or experience centers), more self-service via digital channels, and a proliferation of innovative financial products (micro-loans, instant insurance, investment apps) accessible to the average Nigerian. If current trajectories hold, by 2030 Nigeria could join the ranks of countries like Kenya or China where digital finance is deeply embedded in daily life, though achieved through its own unique mix of bank-led and fintech-led initiatives.
Corporate and SME Banking Transformation
In the corporate banking arena (serving large firms, SMEs, and institutional clients), the integration of emerging technologies will primarily enhance efficiency, credit access, and product offerings by 2030. Large corporate clients of banks will benefit from faster, more automated transaction services – for instance, AI-driven treasury management that can predict cash flow needs, or blockchain-based trade finance platforms that expedite processing of Letters of Credit and cross-border payments. Nigerian banks are likely to implement hyper-automation and cloud-based systems (identified as key future technologies ) to streamline back-office operations for corporate services, resulting in quicker turnaround for activities like loan processing, international transfers, and compliance checks. By 2030, a corporate client could, for example, apply for a multi-billion-naira credit facility through a digital portal where AI instantly assists in document analysis and credit assessment, significantly cutting down the weeks-long process seen today.
The SME segment (which straddles retail and corporate) stands to gain enormously from fintech innovation. Small and medium enterprises in Nigeria have historically been under-served by banks, facing hurdles in obtaining credit and banking services due to high perceived risk and lack of collateral. Fintech platforms are addressing this via alternative financing models: peer-to-peer lending for SMEs, invoice factoring platforms, crowdfunding, and AI-based credit scoring that uses business cash-flow data. By 2030, we expect mainstream adoption of these models. Traditional banks will either back these platforms or launch their own digital SME lending products to remain competitive. Indeed, as noted earlier, fintech lenders could capture a large share of SME credit if banks are sluggish . We anticipate a convergence where banks leverage fintech capabilities to serve SMEs better – for example, offering an integrated app for SMEs that includes accounting software, payroll, and financing options (some Nigerian banks have started offering such value-add services). On the payments side, businesses will enjoy more efficient payments and collections: instant payment systems and possibly smart contracts could automate B2B payments upon delivery of goods or services. Corporate banking will also be influenced by the same open banking regime, meaning corporate clients can more easily connect their bank accounts with third-party enterprise software or fintech services for reconciliation, analytics, etc.
In summary, by 2030 Nigeria’s corporate banking will be more data-driven and client-centric. Large corporates will interact with banks through digital channels enriched by AI insights (for example, AI-generated market analytics or investment advice). SMEs will have greater access to financing thanks to digital credit and government initiatives guaranteeing SME loans. Economic growth through the late 2020s (if realized) will enlarge the corporate sector, and banks equipped with emerging tech will be pivotal in supporting sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and tech startups with tailored financial services. Both segments will need to balance innovation with robust risk management, but those institutions that embrace technologies like AI and blockchain in corporate banking could drastically improve service quality and capture market share in trade finance, project finance, and commercial lending.
Economic and Regulatory Factors Influencing Tech Adoption
The trajectory of technology integration in Nigeria’s banking by 2030 will be shaped not just by innovation, but also by economic conditions and regulatory policies. Several factors in these domains will either accelerate or constrain the adoption of AI and other fintech innovations:
Economic Drivers and Challenges
Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment provides both impetus and challenges for banking innovation. On one hand, the country’s demographics and market size are strong growth drivers. With a population growth rate of about 2.5% per year, Nigeria’s working-age population is expanding rapidly, providing a large pool of new consumers and entrepreneurs entering the financial system each year. This young demographic (median age ~18) is highly receptive to digital solutions, creating fertile ground for mobile banking and fintech services. Additionally, Nigeria’s GDP is the largest in Africa (over $500 billion in nominal terms) and is projected to grow through 2030, assuming continued diversification beyond oil. A growing economy and rising middle class will increase demand for sophisticated financial products – from mortgages to investments – spurring banks to adopt advanced analytics and digital platforms to serve customers at scale. Furthermore, certain economic challenges in Nigeria have inadvertently accelerated fintech adoption. Episodes of high inflation and currency instability (Naira depreciation) have driven citizens to seek alternatives like cryptocurrency as a store of value , thereby pushing the financial sector to innovate around remittances and stablecoin offerings. Likewise, Nigeria’s past cash shortages (e.g. during the 2023 currency redesign crisis) forced many consumers and businesses to try digital payments out of necessity, boosting familiarity with cashless channels. These kinds of shocks can lead to permanent shifts in behavior, hastening the move to digital finance.
However, economic hurdles remain. Infrastructure deficits – such as unreliable electricity and patchy internet coverage in some areas – can slow the adoption of digital banking. Fintech services presume connectivity; thus, uneven telecom infrastructure means rural fintech usage might lag unless mobile network expansion continues. The government’s investments in telecom and power by 2030 will directly impact how evenly distributed fintech benefits are. Moreover, the overall health of the economy affects banks’ capacity to invest in new technology. If Nigeria faces economic downturns or fiscal crises, banks may be more cautious and funding for tech projects or startups might tighten. Presently, though, investment in fintech is robust: Nigeria has been the top destination in Africa for fintech funding (e.g. it accounted for about 32% of Africa’s fintech startups as of 2023 and a large share of tech funding flows). The continuity of this trend into the late 2020s will depend on macro stability and investor confidence. In summary, Nigeria’s huge market potential and necessity to overcome economic challenges (like financial exclusion and inefficiencies) form a powerful incentive to embrace AI and fintech. If economic reforms and diversification succeed, they will provide a conducive environment – resources and demand – for technological advances in the banking sector to flourish by 2030.
Regulatory Environment and Initiatives
The role of regulators – chiefly the Central Bank of Nigeria and other agencies – is pivotal in shaping the adoption of emerging technologies in finance. In the past decade, Nigerian regulators have shown a mix of supportive innovation and protective caution. Going forward to 2030, this careful balancing act will continue to influence outcomes:
On the supportive side, Nigeria has been proactive in issuing regulations that enable fintech growth. The CBN’s issuance of Operational Guidelines for Open Banking (2023) is a prime example, positioning Nigeria as a regional leader in open banking policy . This move is expected to foster a collaborative fintech ecosystem and signals regulators’ willingness to modernize frameworks in line with global best practices. Another positive step was the creation of new license categories such as Payment Service Banks (PSBs) which allowed non-bank entrants (like telecom companies) to offer basic financial services. This policy change addressed inclusion goals by permitting alternative providers into the market. The government also launched initiatives like regulatory sandboxes for fintech, and the Nigeria Startup Act (2022) which provides incentives and legal clarity for tech startups, including those in fintech. Collectively, these indicate an encouraging regulatory stance that sees fintech and AI as tools for national development (financial inclusion, cashless economy, etc.) and thus something to be guided and harnessed rather than stifled. By 2030, we expect further refinement of regulations around digital banking, such as clearer rules on digital lending (to protect consumers from predatory lending rates or data abuse) and stronger data protection laws as digital finance grows. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other bodies are also increasingly involved – for instance, setting up committees to explore AI use in capital markets – suggesting a broadening regulatory oversight across all financial subsectors as technology blurs the traditional boundaries.
At the same time, regulators have taken cautious or restrictive measures when they perceive risks to financial stability or consumers. The ban on cryptocurrency-related transactions through the banking system, instituted by the CBN in 2021, highlights the conservative approach to unregulated digital assets. Similarly, regulators closely monitor fintech activities to prevent systemic risks; the CBN has caps on mobile money transaction sizes and the FCCPC has cracked down on unethical practices by some digital lenders. These protective actions will likely continue, but possibly with more nuance by 2030. It is anticipated that Nigeria will develop a comprehensive fintech regulatory framework that brings currently grey areas (like crypto trading, peer-to-peer lending) into the regulated domain. For example, by 2030 the CBN and SEC might introduce licensing for crypto exchanges or explicit guidelines for blockchain usage by financial institutions, reflecting a shift from outright bans to controlled engagement as seen in some other countries. Regulatory support for innovation might also extend to incentives – e.g. tax breaks for banks investing in AI or mandates for certain tech (as was done with biometric ID enrollment earlier). The central bank’s cashless policy will remain a cornerstone: policies that discourage cash usage (such as limits on free cash withdrawals, or promoting the eNaira) will directly boost digital payments adoption . In addition, adherence to international standards (Basel frameworks, data privacy standards like GDPR, etc.) will shape how Nigerian banks implement AI and cloud solutions, ensuring risk is managed.
In summary, Nigeria’s regulatory climate is increasingly fintech-friendly albeit vigilant. Policymakers recognize that technology is critical to achieving financial inclusion and efficiency goals, and thus have largely been enabling – seen in open banking regulations and licensing reforms. Provided regulators maintain this adaptive approach, addressing new risks with sensible rules, Nigeria’s banking sector should have the guidance and freedom to innovate with AI, blockchain, and other technologies through 2030. The interplay of regulation and innovation will determine the pace: supportive regulation could make Nigeria one of the most advanced fintech markets in the developing world, while any heavy-handed actions could slow progress. Current signs, however, point to a constructive engagement between industry and regulators.
Comparative Perspective: Nigeria in Africa and the Global Context
Nigeria’s advancements in banking tech do not occur in isolation. It is instructive to compare Nigeria’s trajectory with trends in other African markets and globally:
Within Africa, Nigeria is both a leader and a unique case. In terms of fintech scale, Nigeria is at the forefront – along with South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt – in driving the continent’s fintech boom. A recent study by BCG projected Africa’s fintech revenues will grow thirteenfold to $65 billion by 2030, with Nigeria identified as one of the key markets powering this growth . Nigeria’s large population and entrepreneurial fintech scene have made it a magnet for innovation, exemplified by its 200+ fintech startups (highest in Africa) and several unicorns (e.g. Flutterwave, Interswitch). By contrast, Kenya achieved digital finance success early via mobile money – over 70% of Kenyan adults use mobile money (M-Pesa) and it handles a significant share of the country’s GDP in transactions. Nigeria was a late bloomer in mobile money due to a different regulatory approach (bank-led model), but is catching up fast through fintech and PSBs. By 2030, Nigeria is likely to have closed much of the adoption gap with Kenya in mobile payments, although the models differ (Nigeria’s ecosystem is more fragmented with many providers vs. Kenya’s M-Pesa dominance). South Africa, on the other hand, had a very mature traditional banking sector and slower initial fintech uptake, but its banks are now adopting AI and digital channels extensively. Nigerian banks can draw lessons from South African banks’ digital transformations while leveraging Nigeria’s less bank-saturated market to leapfrog in areas like agency banking and payments. Ghana and Egypt present interesting comparable trajectories too – both have growing fintech sectors and supportive regulators. Ghana, for instance, has high mobile money usage and is piloting a CBDC (e-Cedi), akin to Nigeria’s eNaira effort. In regulatory innovation, Nigeria leads (open banking guideline ahead of others; one of the first to launch a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the world), which could give it an edge in shaping Africa’s fintech narrative by 2030.
Regionally, a trend of pan-African integration may also influence Nigeria by 2030. Initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) aim to harmonize cross-border payments and financial services. Nigeria, as Africa’s largest economy, will likely be central to these efforts. By 2030, we might see Nigerian banks and fintechs operating more across borders, exporting payment solutions or partnering in other markets. Competition could also intensify if, for example, Kenyan or South African fintech firms enter Nigeria (some have already begun small forays). Nigeria’s comparative strength lies in its huge domestic market and rapid growth, which should keep it as a pacesetter in African fintech through 2030, even as other countries innovate in parallel.
Globally, Nigeria’s banking tech evolution aligns with many broader trends, though at different scales. In mobile and digital payments, Nigeria’s trajectory resembles that of India – another populous emerging market that leapfrogged traditional banking via mobile innovations (India’s UPI real-time payments saw 74 billion transactions in 2022, highlighting what is achievable ). While Nigeria’s absolute volumes are smaller, the growth rates are comparable, and both countries emphasize financial inclusion. In AI adoption, Nigerian banks are following in the footsteps of banks in advanced economies that have used AI for years in customer service and risk. By 2030, the level of AI penetration in Nigerian banking could be on par with Western banks, given how quickly AI tech is disseminating (for instance, AI chatbots are now standard from London to Lagos). One difference is that global banks in mature markets often have more legacy systems to overhaul, whereas Nigerian institutions (especially newer fintechs and digital banks like Kuda) can build with modern tech from the ground up. This could allow Nigeria to skip some stages and implement cutting-edge solutions faster, a classic leapfrogging scenario.
On regulatory benchmarks, Nigeria’s open banking initiative is modeled after the UK’s Second Payment Services Directive (PSD2) and similar EU regulations, meaning Nigeria is keeping pace with global best practices in that area. Conversely, on cryptocurrency, Nigeria’s strict stance is actually not unusual – many countries grappled with how to regulate crypto; by 2030 we foresee Nigeria will converge towards international norms (possibly regulating crypto assets similar to how the EU is moving with MiCA regulation). Another global comparison is the prevalence of fintech vs traditional banks. Globally, fintech’s share of financial services revenue is expected to rise from about 4% in 2024 to 10% by 2030 . In Nigeria, this shift could be even more pronounced given how aggressively fintech startups are growing. It’s plausible that by 2030, fintechs (including digital banks) command a double-digit percentage of retail banking revenue in Nigeria, pressuring incumbents more than in some developed markets. Yet, collaboration may blur this as well, much as globally banks and fintechs are increasingly partnering.
In summary, Nigeria in 2030 is projected to be a fintech powerhouse in Africa, contributing significantly to the continent’s $65 billion fintech revenue pool . It will likely stand out for its early adoption of AI and open banking in the region. Globally, Nigeria will be cited as a case of rapid digital finance adoption in a large emerging economy – possibly often compared to India, China, or Indonesia in discussions of high-growth fintech markets. While Nigeria’s banking sector may not reach the absolute technological sophistication of top global financial centers by 2030, the gap will certainly narrow. The country might also export fintech innovations – for example, Nigerian payments or remittance solutions being used in other countries – thereby influencing global fintech trends from the bottom up.
Outlook and Projections for 2030
Looking ahead, all indicators suggest that Nigeria’s banking and financial services sector by 2030 will be significantly more digital, efficient, and inclusive than it is today. The convergence of mobile technology, AI, and supportive regulation sets the stage for substantial growth across key metrics. Below is a summary of projected sector developments through 2030 based on current data and expert forecasts:
Metric 2020 2025 (Est.) 2030 (Proj.) Source / Notes
Population (Nigeria) ~206 million ~221 million ~262 million UN/World Bank projections
Adults with Bank or Mobile Account 45% (2021) ~64% (2025)** ~90% (2030)** Global Findex; CBN target (95% by 2024)
No. of Fintech Startups (Nigeria) ~200 (2019) 430+ (early 2025) 600+ (2030)** Disrupt Africa; FintechNews
Fintech Investment Raised (Nigeria) ~$300M (2020)* ~$2B (2024) ~$2.5–3B annually (2030)** Nigeria Economic Report
Mobile Banking Transactions (annual) 769 million (2020) 1.93 billion (2022) >15 billion (2030)** NIBSS/FRED data
African Fintech Market Revenue $5 billion (2021) ~$20 billion (2025)* $65 billion (2030) BCG & QED Report
AI Adoption in Banks ~30% using AI (2020)* ~80% using AI (2025)* ~100% widespread use (2030)** EIU survey (global)
Cost Savings from AI (Global Banking) – – >$1 trillion saved by 2030 Marsh & McLennan forecast
Crypto Adoption (Global Rank) – #2 globally (2023) Top 5 globally (2030)** Chainalysis Index
Open Banking Implementation Planning stage Guidelines issued (2023) Full industry adoption CBN (first in Africa)
Table: Key indicators for Nigeria’s banking sector trajectory. (Est. = estimated; Proj. = projected; * = approximate/third-party estimate; ** = author’s projection or target-based scenario)
As the table highlights, Nigeria is on track for near-universal financial access by 2030, assuming current inclusion initiatives continue. Mobile-driven account ownership is expected to push the share of adults with access to formal finance toward 90% or higher, up from roughly 45% in 2021 . The number of fintech startups and the volume of digital transactions are set to keep climbing, though the pace may moderate as the market matures. By 2030, Nigeria could host well over 600 fintech companies, some of which will likely expand across Africa. Annual mobile banking transaction counts are projected to cross into the tens of billions, cementing digital payments as the norm.
Importantly, Nigeria’s role in the African fintech economy will be dominant – possibly accounting for a quarter or more of Africa’s $65 billion fintech revenue in 2030. This reflects both Nigeria’s size and its success in fostering innovation. On the technology front, AI will move from experimentation to ubiquity in Nigerian banking. We expect that by 2030 every major bank and fintech will leverage AI/ML for customer interfacing, fraud detection, credit scoring, and operations. The result will be substantial efficiency gains (global estimates suggest over $1 trillion savings in banking from AI by 2030) , some of which will translate into lower costs and better rates for customers. Additionally, while Nigeria today is one of the world’s leaders in grassroots crypto adoption , by 2030 the crypto landscape may evolve with clearer regulations; Nigeria is likely to remain in the top tier globally for crypto usage, given strong underlying demand.
In qualitative terms, the trajectory to 2030 points toward a Nigerian financial sector that is more integrated, innovative, and inclusive than ever before. Banks and fintechs are expected to converge into a collaborative ecosystem delivering services that are faster, cheaper, and tailored to user needs. Consumers will enjoy banking that is as easy as using social media – a significant shift from a decade prior where cash and physical bank visits were prevalent. Small businesses will have more financing options beyond traditional bank loans, leveraging fintech platforms for growth. Large corporations will conduct transactions with far greater speed and transparency, potentially using digital currencies or blockchain networks for settlement. The government’s policy goals (such as a cashless Nigeria and broad financial inclusion) are largely aligned with these technological trends, which increases the likelihood of realization.
Of course, this optimistic outlook assumes steady progress and no major derailments. Potential risks to watch include cybersecurity threats (which will need ongoing vigilance as digital channels grow), fintech valuation bubbles or shakeouts (as seen globally in 2022) that could impact investment, and macroeconomic instability which could slow consumer adoption or bank investment capacity. Regulatory missteps could also introduce uncertainty. However, if stakeholders remain adaptive – which thus far they have, as evidenced by Nigeria’s evolving regulations – the overall direction towards a tech-driven financial sector is unlikely to reverse.
Conclusion
By 2030, Nigeria is poised to be a leader in banking innovation, having harnessed mobile technology, AI, blockchain, and a dynamic fintech ecosystem to transform its financial services landscape. The integration of artificial intelligence will deliver smarter customer service and stronger security, while mobile and digital platforms will make banking virtually borderless and frictionless for Nigerians. Both consumers and businesses stand to benefit immensely: individuals with greater financial inclusion and personalized services, and companies with improved access to credit and efficient transaction infrastructure. Nigeria’s experience will serve as a valuable case study of how an emerging market can leapfrog into a digitally-driven banking paradigm, guided by forward-looking regulation and an entrepreneurial spirit. In comparative context, Nigeria is expected to hold its own among global innovators – blending lessons from leading markets with homegrown solutions suited to its unique context. The stage is set for Nigeria’s banking sector to not only support domestic economic growth through 2030 but also to contribute to the broader evolution of financial technology in Africa and beyond. The coming years will reveal how effectively the country can navigate challenges and sustain this momentum, but the predictive indicators and current trends strongly suggest a future where banking in Nigeria is AI-empowered, inclusive, and seamlessly digital.
Sources: This analysis was informed by industry reports, regulatory publications, and expert surveys, including data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Boston Consulting Group, Chainalysis, and others as cited throughout the report. The projections for 2030 are based on extrapolating these trends and stated targets, and while subject to uncertainties, they offer a grounded outlook on Nigeria’s financial sector trajectory.
Sonny Iroche, is one of Nigeria’s pioneer AI experts with a Post Graduate degree in Artificial Intelligence from the Saïd Business School of the University of Oxford. He is also the Chairman of GenAI Learning Concepts Ltd. He was an Investment Banker with over 35 years experience. His banking career spans Operations and Corporate Banking Departments of one of Nigeria’s leading investment banks-International Merchant Bank (an affiliate of the First National Bank of Chicago).
![[OPINION] The crux of the matter - Abdu Rafiu](/media/k2/items/cache/064e6803e611196d204f3cc5ed07b950_M.jpg)
My colleague, Funke Egbemode is back at her beat after a stint in government, as commissioner for information, back to do what she knows how to do best. When my colleagues go into government I say they have gone in for their IT! They have gone to see the inside of government, to see, learn and familiarise themselves with those things that are kept away from the rest of us despite the vaunted claim to transparency. Brandish your type-writer, nay computer–(I am sorry, I am of the old school) — before senior government functionaries and wave the Freedom of Information Act gazette demanding this or asking for that, what you are told is the law has not been domesticated. To our relief, Civil rights activist, S.A.N. Femi Falana has fought the case successfully in one of the states. What I am getting at is that Funke has studied the inner recess of government, how their minds work there—which is what makes her piece this week frightening, indeed, ominous: “This regular festival of human sacrifice cannot stop where about 5000 smooth -talking politicians talk about where power must be,” she wrote. “Just a few people in the North enjoy a ‘northern presidency.’ Only the children of those few school in Switzerland and live in New York…The voters and their children are socialized to mass produce children after mass weddings. They have been told that it is their destiny to serve and slave.” The crux of the matter: “Do you see the northern leaders de-emphasizing age-old ways and hauling the almajiris to school or teaching them coding? Do you see young northerners in the cattle business quitting nomadic life? Do you see the farmlands of Benue and Plateau safe from and devastation they leave behind? Do you see farmers going to bed with their two eyes closed and returning home safely after every farm day? Do you? I don’t.”
I had pencilled down the killings in both Plateau and Benue States for my contemplation this week until my attention was drawn to the compelling piece by Funke Egbemode, and that of Suyi Oba Ayodele.
Captioned “The killings won’t stop”, Funke wrote:
“You can’t kill a cow.
“You can’t caution the herders.
“The farmers, tired of crying and bellyaching are fighting back.
“Herders are killing farmers.”
Funke Egbemode was commenting on the killings in Plateau and Benue States where in the former 150 persons were killed in two attacks within a week. The death toll in Benue was at first 56, but as I was writing this, according to the Governor, the casualty figure had climbed to 83. And at Ilesa Baruba, in Kwara, gunmen struck, killing four persons and wounding two.
The point she did not press is the imperative of state police, a tier of our security architecture to which I have drawn attention repeatedly in this column. The other point on which I have hammered is the essence of Creation Knowledge which brings us to the awareness of the times we are in and the immutability of the mechanisms that govern these times and life—unyielding and self-acting. These are the Laws of Creation also referred to as the Laws of Nature or Divine Laws. We are to recognise necessary signs of the times.
The whole world is literally in turmoil. The waves will sweep through everywhere as the world is in the grip of the prophesied World Judgment. The pressure of the Light baring down animates everything, bringing to life and awakening all that is slumbering or is dead in all mankind to face judgment. There is no hiding place for anyone any more: the strengths and weaknesses will be brought out, to the fore. All that is wrong is coming to light, however well concealed or glossed over by our cleverness. All must reveal itself, visible to all men in every detail and then perish as a barren fruit. Goodness will receive fortification and weaknesses will constitute dross that will drag down. Nobility of soul becomes light and is protected while evil is dragged to its waterloo. One of the self-evident features of these times is the acceleration and intensification of events, sudden deaths, calamities and all! And of course, political and economic collapse! Conduct, thinking, relationships are affected.
Wars were predicted and rumours of war; so were drought, famine, flooding, hurricane and volcanic devastations. Climate change is another major feature of these times. Earlier this month, Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET issued severe weather alert, asking some southern States to prepare for flooding. The states listed were Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Ondo and Anambra. Heavy rainfall would be accompanied by strong winds. Worse conditions were predicted for Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Bayelsa. They were marked down as high-risk areas with rainfall climbing up to 50mm within 24 hours. Strong gusty winds with the potential to damage property were forecast for most of the northern states among them Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi with Benue, Kogi and Kwara featuring in the wind belt. In 2012, floods in Nigeria displaced 2 million people while 363 were killed, according to National Emergency Management Agency, NEMA. In Kano, 5,300 houses were destroyed. In Dawakin Kudu alone 2, 300 houses were affected, said the State Relief and Emergency Agency. The August flooding in 2016 as calculated would cost the United States economy between $10billion and $15 billion (US Dollars). By September of that year flooding described as extra-ordinary damaged 40, 000 homes in South-East Louisiana. Scientists said at the time that Climate Change loaded the dice for Louisiana flood. Whether it is fire it is a picture of gloom. In 2014, there were 1, 298,000 fire incidents reported in the United States, damaging 300 vehicles and causing 3, 275 deaths. The following year, 2015, the record of fire incidents rose to 1,345,500, causing 3,280 civilian deaths, 15, 700 injuries and $14.3billion in property damages.
In his unique treasure book, The Gate Opens, Herbert Vollmann says: “Many indeed know of the coming of this World Judgment but they are still awaiting the trumpet-blasts which are to herald it. Let those who thus wait follow attentively just for once the news from the countries of the earth. Each day brings reports of political disturbances, economic distress, famine, of outrages and dreadful misery; plagues and drought afflict mankind, the earth quakes and destroys whole cities within seconds, deadly hurricanes rage along, volcanoes belch forth devastating fire, rivers overflow their banks, tearing away homesteads, cattle and men.
“Are these not trumpet-blasts for the Judgment, when here today and there tomorrow the waves of terror and dread roll over mankind, to shake them violently awake even at the last moment? What is sinister and new in this is the abundance of events never before experienced, the speed with which they follow one another. But who allows himself to be touched by them, unless they directly affect him personally?”
Terence McKenna, the verity of whose words and thought provoking which I am wont to refer for our reflection, states: “Nature is not mute, it is man that is deaf.” And this brings me to the main subject of today. As I did ask last week: What do these times say to us, to all mankind? Didn’t Prophet Isaiah give us the hint when he said: “Take counsel together, and it shall come to nought: speak the word, and it shall not stand: for God is with us”? (Isaiah 8: 10) Dake’s Annotated Reference Bible. It is the proverbial End-Time he spoke about, the great time of perplexity in which one conference follows another, but achieving nothing—when, according to Vollmann, distrust is everywhere, unrest and uneasiness, when hopelessness spreads ever more. God with us indicating the emergence of a new Era. And we read from the unique Work, In the Light of Truth, The Grail Message by Abd-ru-shin that the way out of the chaos and hopelessness; to joy and happiness, nobility, beauty and consciously being part of the wonderful life is to learn the Language of God in His Creation.
THE LANGUAGE OF THE LORD
“It is the sacred duty of the human spirit to investigate why it is living on earth, or in general in this Creation, in which it is suspended as if by a thousand threads. No man considers himself so insignificant as to imagine that his existence is without purpose, unless he makes it purposeless. In any case he deems himself too important. And yet there are only a few men on earth capable of laboriously detaching themselves from their spiritual indolence, so far as seriously to concern themselves with the investigation of their tasks on earth.
Again it is solely indolence of the spirit that makes them willing to accept the firmly established doctrines of others. And it is indolence that lies in the reassurance that comes from thinking that it is great to adhere to the faith of their parents, without submitting its underlying principles to keen, careful and independent examination.
In all these matters men are now eagerly supported by calculating and selfish organisations, which believe that the best way to extend and safeguard their influence, and thus to increase their power, is by adding to the number of their adherents.
They are far from true recognition of God; for otherwise they would not bind the human spirit with the fetters of a firmly -established doctrine, but would have to educate it for the personal responsibility ordained by God, which fundamentally stipulates full freedom of spiritual decision! Only a spirit free in this respect can come to the true recognition of God that matures within him to the complete conviction which is essential for anyone who wishes to be uplifted to Luminous Heights; for only free, sincere conviction can help him to achieve this. –
But what have you done, you men! How have you suppressed this highest Grace of God and wantonly prevented it from developing, and from helping all earthmen to open up that path which safely leads them to peace, to joy, and to the highest bliss!
Consider this: that also in making a choice, in agreement or in obedience which as a result of spiritual indolence may be done only from habit or general custom, a personal decision is involved, laying upon the individual who makes it personal responsibilities according to the Laws of Creation!
Those who influence a human spirit to do this naturally bear a personal responsibility, which is inevitable and irrevocable. No thought or action, however trivial, can be erased from Creation without similar consequences. In the web of Creation the threads both for the individual and for the masses are accurately spun, awaiting redemptions, which in turn must eventually be received by the originators or producers, either as suffering or as joy, according to how they once issued from them, only now they have grown and are thus strengthened.
You are caught in the web of your own volitions, of your action, and are not released from it until the threads can fall away from you in the redemption.
Among all creatures in Creation the human spirit is the only one to have free will, which until today, he could not explain and did not understand, because within the narrow bounds of intellectual pondering he found no essential facts to prove it.
Hls free will lies in the decision, of which he may make many every hour. In the independent weaving of the Laws of Creation, however, is unswervingly subject to the consequences of every one of his personal decisions! Therein lies his responsibility, which is inseparably connected with the gift of free will to make decisions, which is peculiar to and an absolute part of human spirit.
Otherwise what would become of Divine Justice, which is firmly anchored in Creation as support, balance and maintenance of all the working therein?
In Its effects, however, it does not always take account of the short span of only one earth-life for a human spirit; but here there are entirely different conditions, as readers of my Message know.
You have often brought harm upon yourselves, and sometimes force it upon your children, through many superficial decisions. Even though you yourselves have proved too indolent still to summon up the strength to decide for yourselves in your deepest intuitive perception whether, regardless of all you have learnt, each word to which you decided to adhere can hold Truth, at least you should not seek to force the consequences of your indolence also upon your children, whom you thus plunge into misfortune.
Thus, what in one case is caused by spiritual freedom indolence, in others is brought about by calculating intellect.
Through both these enemies of spiritual freedom in decision mankind is now bound, except for a few who still try to summon up courage to bust this bound within them in order to become real human beings themselves, as follows from obedience to Divine Laws.
Divine Laws are true friends in everything, they are helpful blessings from the Will of God, Who thus open paths to salvation to everyone who strives towards it.
There is not a single other road to this than the one clearly shown by the Laws of God in Creation! The whole Creation is the Language of God, which you should earnestly strive to read, and which is by no means as difficult as you may think.
You belong to this Creation as a part of it, and therefore you must swing with it, work in it, and mature in learning from it; and thus through gaining in understanding you must rise ever higher, from one step to the next, drawing along through the radiation in order to ennoble everything that comes in contact with you on your way.
There will then spontaneously develop around you one beautiful miracle after another, which through reciprocal action will raise you ever higher.
Learn to recognise your path in Creation, and you will also know the purpose of your existence. Then you will be filled with grateful rejoicing, and the greatest happiness a human spirit is able to bear, which lies solely in the recognition of God!
The supreme bliss of the true recognition of God, however, can never grow out of an acquired blind faith, much less come to flower; but convinced knowledge, knowing conviction, alone gives the spirt what is necessary for this.
You earthmen are in this Creation to find supreme happiness! In the Living Language which God speaks to you! And to understand this Language, to learn it, and to sense inwardly the Will of God in it, that is your goal during your journey through Creation. In Creation itself, to which you belong, lies the explanation of the purpose of your existence, and at the same time also the recognition of your goal! In no other way can you find either!
This demands of you that you live Creation. But you are only able to live or experience it when you really know it.
With my Message I now open the Book of Creation for you! The Message clearly shows you the Language of God in creation, which you must learn to understand so that you can make it completely your own.
Just imagine a child on earth who cannot understand his father or mother because he has never learned the language they speak to him. Indeed, what is to become of such a child?
He does not even know what is expected of him, and will thus fall into one difficulty after the other, draw upon himself one sorrow after another, and probably end up utterly useless for any purpose or enjoyment on earth.
If he is to amount to anything, must not every child personally learn the language of his parents for himself? Nobody can do it for him!
Otherwise he would never adjust himself, nor would he ever be able to mature and work on earth, but he would remain a hinderance, a burden to others, and would finally have to be segregated to prevent to prevent him from causing harm.
Could you expect anything else then?
You have of course inescapably to fulfil such a duty of the child towards your God, Whose Language you must learn to understand as soon as you desire His help. God, however, speaks to you in His Creation. If you want to advance in it, you must recognise this His Language. Should you neglect it, you will be cut off from those who know the Language and adjust themselves to it, because you would otherwise cause harm and obstruction, without necessarily wishing to do so!
You must therefore do it! Do not forget this, and see that it is done now, otherwise you will be helplessly abandoned to whatever threatens you.
My Message will be a faithful helper to you!”
![[OPINION] 15 Years of Boosting the Economy With Local Content - Felix Omatsola Ogbe](/media/k2/items/cache/84caf87c8a5dc023e69451cbba003e0c_S.jpg)
April 22, 2010 is a notable milestone in the annals of the Nigerian oil and gas sector. On that day, 15 years ago, former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan signed the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Bill into law. Based on the impact made in the implementation of the historic legislation, and the significant benefits that have continued to accrue to the nation, the local content policy must count as one of the most successful economic policies since the return to democracy in 1999. The policy has redefined the priorities of the oil and gas sector in a Nigeria-First direction, underscored the centrality of sustainability as a core policy consideration and catalyzed significant benefits to businesses and communities across the country.
It is an honour to serve at the helm of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), the implementing agency for this vital policy at a time that the Tinubu administration is executing bold reforms in the sector. In sync with the spirit of the times, we will not roll out drums to celebrate this particular anniversary. But we enjoin oil industry players, partners and members of the public to take pride in the impressive progress we have made collectively, reflect on the gains of implementation and recalibrate plans for moving forward.
Prior to the NOGICD Act, the situation was quite abysmal. The level of Nigerian Content in the oil and gas sector was less than five percent because the focus was on revenue derivation from the oil and gas sector over in-country value creation. As a result, nearly all fabrication, engineering, and procurement for the oil and gas industry were executed abroad. Conservative estimates suggest that Nigeria’s national economy suffered capital flight of about $380 billion in the first 50 years of oil production and lost opportunities to create over two million jobs. The nation also missed out on opportunities to catalyze research and development, manufacturing and support services.
To change this highly unsatisfactory reality, NCDMB has since 2010 worked collaboratively with other entities and stakeholders to grow the local content level in the oil and gas sector from less than five percent to 57 percent as at February 2025. In the process, over 50,000 jobs have been created, 13,000 training man-hours delivered through capacity development programmes in addition to other countless projects and opportunities. One of such projects is the ongoing $5 billion Nigeria LNG Train 7 project, 50 per cent of which is being executed locally, employing over 8,300 Nigerians.
By ensuring the organic application of the local content policy across linkage sectors, NCDMB has encouraged Nigerian firms to acquire hi-tech assets and equipment and expand operations to other nations. Nigerian operating companies were thus able to acquire and operate the fields and assets divested by some international operating companies because of the enormous growth of local content, especially in human and material capacities.
Today, several Nigerians service companies have invested in sophisticated vessels and rigs – assets that used to be the exclusive preserve of foreign companies. Local firms now enjoy patronage and even exclusivity in land and swamp areas of the industry, retaining huge industry spend in the economy, employing Nigerians and building skills and domiciling most industry work that used to be exported.
Broadly, our priorities over the past 15 years have included the following: promoting indigenous ownership of equipment used in industry operations; promoting manufacturing of oil and gas components by local firms; giving first consideration to Nigerian indigenous companies; ensuring that Nigerian content targets are met for projects and operations. We have also prioritized training and employment opportunities for Nigerians and the deployment of the Nigerian Content Development Fund for targeted capacity building. Relatedly, we ensure that local capacity investors have work to amortize investments even as oil producing communities are involved organically in the activities of the sector.
The impact of the NOGICD Act reverberates beyond Nigeria. NCDMB currently mentors many nations on how to implement local content policies, maximize in-country value addition and create wealth for their citizenry. Despite these accomplishments, we continue to strive towards the 70 per cent target we set for ourselves for 2027 under the Nigerian Content 10-Year Strategic Roadmap, while taking cognizance of the changing dynamics in the world energy industry.
Going forward, the three Presidential Directives (PDs) on Nigerian oil and gas operations issued by President Tinubu to the Nigerian oil and gas industry in March 2024 provide the perfect platform to reevaluate and retool our strategies. The Presidential Directives were conceived to incentivize investments in the sector and improve the turn-around time for concluding contracts – addressing two cancers that plagued the sector. Specifically, the Directives mandated us and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to take deliberate steps to fast-track approvals of oil and gas projects and use local content guidelines to attract investments and create value from the operations of the industry.
We swiftly adopted the Presidential Directives in our operations. In December 2024 we unveiled our new oil and gas contracting guidelines, reducing our touchpoints or interventions on the industry contracting cycle from nine to five for open and selective tenders, and four touchpoints for single source contracts. We made these changes to fast-track approvals, eliminate middlemen from the industry operations and shorten the industry cycle time to six months. Using our new guidelines, we approved four new oil and gas projects, estimated to add 350 thousand barrels of crude oil per day and one billion standard cubic feet of gas.
With the Presidential Directives as our beacon, NCDMB has, since I assumed office as Executive Secretary in December 2023, sustained the momentum of implementation and injected fresh energy in driving the 10-Year Strategic Roadmap. Here are a few highlights. We conceptualized the Back to the Creek Initiative, which takes the benefits of local content operations to communities across the country. One of our goals with the initiative is to revamp primary and post primary schools in our hinterlands, and prepare the students to meet the ICT needs of this age.
Also, we prioritize supporting oil and gas firms to develop oil and gas projects, thereby growing Nigeria’s crude oil production and the nation’s revenue. In this regard, we will continue to be pragmatic in implementing and enforcing the provisions of the NOGICD Act. While we will ensure that international and indigenous operators patronize and utilize all existing capacities and domicile work in-country, we must encourage operating companies to develop new projects profitably and speedily. It is heartwarming that Nigerian Content has also grown remarkably on the production side. Indigenous producers now account for about 50 percent of Nigeria’s crude oil production.
We are doing a lot more. Under my watch, NCDMB is also leading the remodeling of the Community Contractors Fund Scheme to provide funding for community contractors in the oil and gas industry. As part of this review, eligible community contractors can now access N100m to support their businesses in the oil and gas industry. The Community Contractors Fund Scheme is part of the Nigerian Content Intervention Fund (NCI Fund), which we operate in partnership with the Bank of Industry (BoI) and Nigerian Export-Import (NEXIM) Bank. The Fund supports local contractors, manufacturers and service providers with long tenor facility and single digit interest rate.
The Nigerian Oil and Gas Park Schemes NOGAPS) is also a transformative flagship project. We have almost completed the pilot parks at Odukpani, Cross River State and at Emeyal-1 in Ogbia Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. Preliminary plans are afoot to build similar parks at Akwa Ibom, Imo, Delta, Abia, Edo, Ondo. The parks will spur manufacturing of equipment components and spare parts that would be utilized in the industry. Each will create about 2000 jobs when it begins full operations.
Another area we have recorded appreciable progress is our investments in commercial ventures, notably in modular refineries, gas projects and similar initiatives. We invested in 16 ventures across the hydrocarbon value chain, to catalyze investments in key areas of the sector, add value to natural resources and create employment opportunities. Some of the investments are already generating returns such as the Waltersmith Modular Refinery and Nedogas Gas Gathering and Processing Facility.
The achievements we have recorded in the last two years are anchored on the visionary and result-oriented leadership of President Bola Tinubu. Also significant is the tremendous support and cooperation of the Minister of State Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri and the Minister of State Petroleum (Gas), Honourable Ekperikpe Ekpo. We will continue to reinforce and strengthen all important relationships for the good of our industry and the Nigerian economy.
To sustain the momentum, NCDMB will, between May 21 to 22 2025, host the 5th edition of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Opportunity Fair (NOGOF) to showcase short to medium term plans and activities of operators and project promoters in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the Nigerian Oil and Gas industry. This will give Nigerian service companies ample opportunity to build relevant capacities that might be required to execute the projects in-country, thereby creating employment opportunities, and retaining spend in-country.
Local content represents the best opportunity for Nigeria to obtain tangible and durable benefits from its oil wealth in a rapidly changing world in which carbon may become a less important asset. We will continue to shoulder this responsibility with the seriousness it deserves.
*Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe is the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB).
![[OPINION] Pope Francis, our father, gone to Heaven - Owei Lakemfa](/media/k2/items/cache/4aaa94c195013f28e4a0978bcd49e815_S.jpg)
The ascendancy of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Pope Francis, to the papacy was a trinity of sorts. It was historic, prophetic and redeeming. For 1,272 years, the papacy was occupied by Europeans only, especially the Italians. Some even joked about the Italian Mafia at work. Indeed, some mafia might at various stages been at work.
For instance, Rodrigo Borgia, Pope Alexander VI made his son Cesare Borgia, a bishop at 15 and cardinal at 18. Cesare wielded considerable power in the papal army, and the only obstacle for him becoming the Captain General of the church, that is the supreme commander of the Papal State Armed Forces, was his uncle, Giovani Borgia. The latter in 1497 conveniently turned up dead in the River Tiber.
Pope Alexander VI was said to be displeased by the reality that Jesus was a Jew from the Middle East, and therefore not a White man or an European with pointed nose, blue eyes, long brown hair and beards. So he commissioned paintings of his notorious son, Cesare as the model of Jesus Christ. Until today, the paintings with an uncanny resemblance of the cunning and ruthless Cesare, are the most common images of Jesus all over the world.
There are bound to be many controversies about the Catholic Church which also held state power. This includes Pope Paul III in 1548 declaring slave trade legitimate in the eyes of God.
There was also the controversy of Pope Pius XII during the Second World War, supporting fascism and the regime of Hitler’s main ally, Benito Mussolini. Also, in the name of neutrality he did not raise his voice against the Holocaust. When about 1,260 Jews were rounded up in Rome and detained outside the walls of the Vatican, the only recorded move by the Pope was to argue that those of them who have been baptised should no longer be considered Jews.
Clearly the Vatican at this stage, behaved like a secular state with a sense of self-preservation, and not a religious or moral authority. Although the Catholic Church has played major transformative roles in the lives of people, these incidents doubtlessly dented its image. So, after the catastrophic Second World War, it needed self-introspection, reformation and relevance to its adherents.
One of the major contributions of Pope Francis to Catholicism, was the restoration of respectability and reliability to the papacy, especially after the August 6, 1978 passage of Paul VI.
I remember the latter and Pope John XIII, particularly for their transformation politics. Particularly for their convocation and holding of the Second Vatican which set the church on the path of reform, tolerance and democratisation. Vatican II also caused the church to see Jesus Christ in the face of every crying child. It equally gave voice to the poor, the needy, and nudged the church towards a people-centred path rather than a theology-based obsession.
One of the major achievements of that conference attended by 2,625 persons, was the introduction of vernacular: allowing mass to be celebrated in local languages alongside Latin, thereby deepening understanding of the faith by the masses. Vatican II declared the Mass as the “source and summit of Christian life” in which there should be the “full, conscious and active participation” of all.
It equally recognised the role of the laity in running the church and the democratisation of the church to allow for collective decision-making amongst bishops.
Vatican II also declared freedom of religion for all human beings, and directed Catholics to stop blaming Jews for the alleged sin of killing Jesus Christ. It also recognised Judaism and preached inter-religious dialogue. To further this, the Second Vatican dropped the hitherto position that Protestants are schematics and heretics. Rather, it referred to them as “separated brethren”. Despite its openness, the Second Vatican did not end clerical celibacy.
Pope Paul VI tried to implement the outcome of Vatican II, especially in modernising the church, promoting inter religious faith and evangelisation. This saw him visiting six continents.
Albino Luciani, Pope John Paul I became pope on August 26, 1978. He combined the names of his two immediate predecessors: one had named him a bishop, and the other appointed him a cardinal. His programmes included implementing the Second Vatican, preaching the gospel and encouraging social justice. He was opposed to homosexuality and cautioned against communism. He rejected the papal coronation, preferring a simple inauguration mass. He was pope for only 33 days before suffering a heart attack, sparking controversy on his death.
Karol Jozef Wojtyla, Pope John Paul II became pope on October 16, 1978. He gave contradictory signals. For instance, as Pope in 1979, he strongly supported and campaigned for the opposition Solidarity Movement in his native Poland that ousted the Socialist government. However, when four priests sided with the revolutionary Sandinistan Movement that ousted the Pro-capitalist Somoza regime, and birthed a socialist government, the staunchly anti-communist Pope John Paul II chided them publicly for holding political positions, and got them de-robed.
When he visited Nicaragua, he angrily wagged his finger at Father Ernesto Cardenal who was Minister of Culture. Other priests in the government included Foreign Minister, Miguel D’Escoto and Father Fernando Cardenal. Father D’Escoto was not recalled until 2014, that is 31 years later. While not frontally fighting Vatican II, he used then Cardinal Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger, later Pope Benedict XVI, to beat priests into line. Later as Pope, Ratzinger continued his onslaught against the Second Vatican and pro-people priests. He became so conservative that during the spread of HIV/AIDS, he insisted that the use of condoms was a sin. He was also found to have shielded some priests who engaged in sexual abuse.
Pope Francis was a product and continuation of the Second Vatican Movement. His election was somehow prophetic although the man who made the prediction was not really religious. Fidel Castro in 1973 said: “The United States will come to talk to us (Cuba) when it has a Black President and the world has a Latin American pope.” This prediction came to pass.
Pope Francis named himself after Saint Francis of Assisi who loved the poor. As pope, he worked to end poverty and inequality, and for gender equality. He held that the power of the church is not to exact service but to serve. He campaigned against climate change and environmental degradation. After being elected pope, he flew economy, carried his own bag and, maintained his love for football.
He worked until a few hours before his death on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025. As we await the election of a new pope, can the conclave give the world another pontiff in the mould of Pope Francis? As for the latter, he has ended his earthly journey and is Heaven-bound.
[OPINION] Seeing Defection In Nigerian Politics As A Dance Of Greed, Not Ideology - Isaac Asabor
Admin![[OPINION] Seeing Defection In Nigerian Politics As A Dance Of Greed, Not Ideology - Isaac Asabor](/media/k2/items/cache/1a31b836998f2895c1f554cd541cc73c_S.jpg)
In saner political climes, party defection is typically a rare event, one driven by a clash of ideas, conscience, or a principled stance on governance. Politicians in developed democracies often cross the aisle because they disagree with their party’s policy direction or seek a better platform to serve their constituents based on deeply held ideological beliefs. But in Nigeria, defection has become a career strategy, an open market for the highest bidder, and a shameful display of selfish ambition. The principles of party loyalty, ideological commitment, or even the dignity of public service have been thrown out the window. Instead, what we see is a political class whose only guiding star is personal gain.
The recent defections of top Delta State politicians, including former governor Ifeanyi Okowa and current governor Sheriff Oborevwori from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), are glaring examples of this opportunistic culture. Their movement to a party they once demonized is not rooted in any philosophical or ideological reawakening; it is a clear-cut survival move in anticipation of federal patronage. Okowa was Atiku Abubakar’s running mate in the last presidential election and vociferously opposed the APC. Today, he is dining with the same political forces he warned Nigerians about. What changed? Nothing but the coordinates of power.
Let us not sugarcoat it, defection in Nigeria is about power, access to state resources, and political protection. These defections are not random acts. They are well-calculated maneuvers timed around elections, tribunal judgments, or impending probes. It is not about the people; it is about the politician. Okowa’s defection, for instance, comes just as the PDP continues to reel from internal crises and waning relevance at the national level. Joining the ruling party is an insurance policy, not a new beginning in governance philosophy.
Even more ironic is the case of Governor Oborevwori, Okowa’s political godson, who rode to power on the back of PDP structures. Now, under Okowa’s influence, he too has jumped ship. How does one explain that the same political structure that delivered electoral victory under the PDP is now suddenly unsuitable for governance? This is not about governance. It is about staying on the good side of Abuja.
Let us go back a bit in history. The 2014 gale of defections remains one of the most defining moments in Nigeria’s political journey. It started with five PDP governors, Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), jumping ship to the then opposition APC. They claimed PDP had derailed and become undemocratic. Many Nigerians believed them at the time, thinking they were indeed men of conscience. But what followed was a familiar pattern, appointments, contracts, and political protection. Those who moved to APC became instant beneficiaries of federal power and resources. When the tide turned against the APC in their states, many returned to PDP or moved elsewhere.
In another classic episode, the then Senate President, Bukola Saraki, defected back to PDP in 2018 after falling out with President Buhari. He cited democratic suppression and lack of internal democracy. But many Nigerians saw through it. Saraki’s moves were less about democracy and more about shielding himself from the political witch hunt that had begun following his emergence as Senate President against the wishes of the APC leadership.
Yahaya Bello, the immediate former governor of Kogi State, though not a defector himself, has also benefited from a culture of sycophancy where loyalty is not to ideology but to whoever holds the power baton. Politicians like Femi Fani-Kayode and Musiliu Obanikoro, who were once virulent critics of the APC, are now proud card-carrying members, praising the same administration they labeled dictatorial. What changed? Certainly not ideology.
The truth is that Nigeria’s political class has no ideology. In fact, political parties in Nigeria are often indistinguishable in terms of manifestos, policy thrusts, or national vision. What we have are political associations built around personalities and power blocs, not ideals. So, defection is not a shock; it is a continuation of the same agenda under a different party name.
Compare this to the political behavior in the United Kingdom or the United States. When British MPs like Anna Soubry and Chuka Umunna left the Conservative and Labour parties respectively to form the Independent Group (later Change UK), it was due to irreconcilable policy disagreements over Brexit. In the United States, Bernie Sanders is known for his progressive ideology, running as an independent while aligning with Democrats for strategic reasons, yet remaining firmly rooted in his social democratic values. Defection, in such cases, is principled, even if controversial.
In Nigeria, however, ideology is alien. There is no left or right, no conservative or progressive. Everyone is a capitalist at heart and a socialist in campaign rhetoric. When they need the people’s votes, they promise heaven and earth. Once in power, the electorate becomes an afterthought. The party system has become a vessel for personal ambition, not public service.
This cancer of opportunistic defection weakens democracy. First, it erodes party discipline and makes nonsense of the ballot. When people vote for a candidate under one party, only to see him defect weeks or months later, it feels like betrayal. It destabilizes the political ecosystem and confuses the electorate. Secondly, it renders opposition parties ineffective. When key leaders of opposition parties defect, especially to the ruling party, it destroys the checks and balances needed in a democracy.
The courts have failed to help the situation. Instead of establishing a constitutional barrier against this shameless culture, the judiciary has often legitimized it. While the Supreme Court has, in isolated cases, ruled that votes belong to political parties and not individuals, the enforcement of such rulings remains weak and inconsistent. What we need is an electoral reform that makes defection consequential, perhaps a mandatory forfeiture of elective office when a politician crosses over mid-term, unless the party itself splits.
The onus is also on Nigerians. We must begin to interrogate our political leaders more critically. Defectors should be held accountable, not celebrated. Citizens must reject this political prostitution by voting against defectors, no matter the platform. The media must also play its role in shaping narratives. Instead of romanticizing defections as “political masterstrokes,” we should call them out for what they are, betrayals.
Ultimately, until Nigeria builds a system where parties are driven by ideas, where politicians are held accountable to ideological commitments, and where defection carries real political cost, the vicious cycle will continue. And every time a politician defects, it won’t be a movement for the people, but a march of personal ambition.
We must break this cycle, because a democracy where politicians jump ship at will is not a democracy. It’s a bazaar. And in a bazaar, the highest bidder wins, not the most principled leader. That is the tragedy of Nigeria’s political evolution.
[OPINION] Ogun Leveraging Agro-cargo Airport to Drive Economic Growth Through Regional Trade - Femi Ogbonnikan
Admin![[OPINION] Ogun Leveraging Agro-cargo Airport to Drive Economic Growth Through Regional Trade - Femi Ogbonnikan](/media/k2/items/cache/3d41da397dceb522999824ddb9d0c3c1_S.jpg)
The Nigerian Airspace Management Agency’s (NAMA) visit to the Gateway International Agro-Cargo Airport is a significant step towards the launching of full commercial flights. The airport is one of the legacy projects of Governor Dapo Abiodun aimed at transforming the economy of Ogun State into an industrial hub. Its cargo handling capabilities and proximity to the Olokola Free Trade Zone make it an attractive hub for trade, commerce and industry.
So, the visit signifies a crucial progress toward the operational launch, with expectations of commencing commercial flights soon.
During the visit, NAMA officials conducted essential runway checks and flight procedure validations to ensure the airport’s infrastructure and navigational systems meet safety standards. This process involves assessing the runway’s alignment, approach procedures, and functionality of navigational aids like the Instrument Landing System (ILS).
Additionally, the “23 and 05” checks were conducted to validate the runway’s orientations and ensure safe operations in both directions. In the final analysis, the agency provided guidance on upcoming installations, including ILS and other navigational aids.
This procedure indicates the readiness of the airport for full commercial flight operations. According to the Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Engr. Ade Akinsanya, the airport is 97 percent complete, with world-class facilities such as a 4-kilometre runway, modern terminal building, advanced air traffic control systems, and a state-of-the-art control tower.
In his remark at the end of the inspection exercise, the Manager, Flight Calibration Services, NAMA, Engr. Miri Selzing, commended the Ogun State government for the impressive facilities at the airport, especially the 4-kilometre runway, which according to him, would handle diversions from Lagos, Ibadan, and Ilorin.
He explained that the aim of the check was to ensure that the standard aligned with the proposed procedures defined for the airport.
He said: “Our purpose for coming here is to check the proposed procedures that have been defined for the airport. This is a significant process and not something that can be concluded in a short time.
“Our visit is the beginning of the validation of the procedure. We have reviewed the procedures that have been drawn up, checked them in the air, and we will analyze them when we get back to our base. From there, we will be able to come up with recommendations and modifications where necessary.
“But physically, the airport looks very good. The runway, about four kilometres long—the longest in the country—is very impressive. The airport has a good terminal building; everything is fine, so it is a great job being done here.”
He expressed hope that with the level of work done, the airport would become a destination for airplanes soon.
“The runway is long and large enough to accommodate any type of aircraft. The airport would handle diversions from Lagos, Ibadan, and Ilorin.
The Gateway International Agro-Cargo Airport’s 4-kilometre runway is indeed an impressive feature, allowing for the accommodation of large aircraft and potentially multiple flights simultaneously. Among other benefits, the capacity of the Runway to handle multiple flights and larger aircraft will lead to increased economic activity, job creation, and significant increase in income generation.
The Ogun State Government is working towards leveraging the airport to drive economic growth, regional trade, and industrial development.
For these reasons, Selzing gave the government a pat on the back for the job well done. “We commend the Ogun State government for such a laudable project, and we are prepared to assist as more facilities are installed at the airport,” he concluded.
With NAMA’s positive feedback, the airport is closer to receiving final certification for commercial flight operations.
According to Akinsanya, this is one of the last elements that need to be addressed to obtain commercial approval,” adding that once the flight check has been completed, it would be developed and made available on the Internet for easy access to the airport.
While noting that work on any airport around the world is an ongoing process, the Commissioner disclosed that the Airport was 97 percent complete with the control tower, ATC officers, fire fighters, and other necessary facilities already put in place.
Located in Ilishan-Remo, the airport is designed to boost the state’s economy and provide numerous job opportunities. By projection, the airport is expected to create over 25,000 job opportunities, contributing significantly to the state’s economic growth.
The airport’s operations will create numerous job opportunities, both directly and indirectly, contributing to the state’s economic development.
Already, Charter operations have commenced, while approval for scheduled services is pending from the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA).
When fully operational, the airport will serve as a catalyst for economic development, enabling Ogun State to become a global aviation hub. Its strategic location and design will facilitate the transportation of goods and people, stimulating industrial growth and investment.
The airport’s cargo handling capacity will also enhance trade and commerce, positioning Ogun State as a major economic player in the West Africa sub-region.
Part of the plans by the state government is to establish a Special Agro Processing Zone and an aerotropolis around the airport, further driving economic development.
In addition to that, an MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) facility and pilot training centre are also planned, adding to the airport’s economic benefits.
With the state-of-the-art facilities and advanced infrastructure at the airport, Ogun State has potentials to become a major aviation hub in West Africa. The airport’s cargo handling capacity and ability to accommodate large aircraft can facilitate trade and commerce, driving economic growth and development in the region.
Specifically, the Airport’s proximity to the Olokola Free Trade Zone, in Ogun Waterside Local Government Area, is expected to facilitate trade and commerce within the sub-region.
Besides, the airport is part of a larger aerotropolis project, which includes a Special Agro Processing Zone (SAPZ). This zone will enhance the cargo handling capabilities and attract industries related to agro-processing.
More importantly, the airport will significantly enhance the agro-allied value chain in several ways. One, by providing a dedicated cargo airport for agricultural products, the Gateway Airport can streamline the transportation process, reducing handling times and costs.
Secondly, its cargo handling capabilities will also facilitate the movement of agricultural goods, making it easier for farmers and businesses to access local and international markets.
The airport’s Special Agro Processing Zone will equally enable value-added processing and packaging of agricultural products, increasing their shelf life and market value.
By providing efficient logistics and value-added services, the Gateway Airport will help agro-allied industries in Nigeria become more competitive in the global market.
The airport’s focus on agro-allied industries can as well contribute to diversifying the Nigerian economy, reducing dependence on oil exports and promoting sustainable economic growth.
Above all, by improving the efficiency and competitiveness of agro-allied industries, the Airport can help increase food production and availability, contributing to food security in Nigeria and beyond.
*Ogbonnikan writes from Abeokuta, Ogun State capital
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![[OPINION] Waiting for an African Pope - Azu Ishiekwene](/media/k2/items/cache/46dbc34acb8b4a074898a79b937582f8_XS.jpg)
It’s nothing to laugh off, however tempting. If the movies imitate life, we may not be as far away from an African pope. It happened in The Conclave, a film by Peter Straughan released in 2024, based on the novel by Robert Harris.
Through the intrigues, rivalries and scandals of the plot, Adeyemi, a Nigerian cardinal at the Conclave, almost emerged as pope before a contestant snookered him with the scandalous love story involving him and a nun, Shanumi, who had a child for him while he was 39 and she was 19.
If the plot sounds like something from the fertile imagination of the movie director, a Nigerian, Arinze Cardinal, came close to claiming the papacy in 2005. Arinze didn’t miss it because of any scandals. Once the youngest Catholic bishop in the world, he was judged not just as one of Africa’s best but also as a global theological legend. Still, he was a nearly pope.
Banking on hope
That was two decades ago, when the papacy was a relay amongst a few European countries, with Italy claiming the lion’s share of 217. Pope Francis was the first Jesuit and cardinal from the Americas to rise to the top of the papacy, raising hopes that the next one may come from Africa or Asia.
This hope is not based solely on legend. Africa is the fastest-growing region for the Catholic Church, with about 20 percent of the church’s 1.4 billion population. This demographic shift has spurred optimism that, after the Americas, Africa or Asia could produce the next pope, and better if he is the first Black pope in modern history.
What does it mean for Africa?
An African pope will inspire faith across the continent, demonstrating that, when it matters, the church casts its vote where its mouth is. Papal historians say that some early popes were from North Africa, citing Victor I, Miltiades I, and Gelasius I, from Roman-era Africa.
But Africans are unwilling to exhume the tombs of papal history going back to the 5th century for the remains of the last Black pope. They argue, for example, that if grace is the leveller, the rock upon which Peter’s Church is built, the baton of its highest office cannot be made to look like the exclusive right of three European countries – Italy, Germany and France.
An African pope might be the most unambiguous indication yet that the Catholic Church might be inclined to continue with the legacy of Pope Francis, especially his advocacy for the poor, marginalised, and developing countries. And perhaps more than any time in the recent past, Africa has a solid lineup at this year’s Conclave.
The lineup
OK, only a few bookmakers are betting on any of the 18 African cardinals in Rome. Most forecasts put their chances at 14 percent or less. Yet, Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson of Ghana, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Cardinal Ignace Bessi Dogbo of Côte d’Ivoire are among the best crop you can find anywhere in the world.
The least favoured African candidate, Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea, is not because of competence. He is a risky candidate because of his age (79, three years older than when Francis assumed the papacy) and his conservative views. His position on various issues, from LGBTQ rights to the exclusive use of Latin for the liturgy, puts him at odds with most European electors.
Stars not enough
Despite its bright stars, why does Africa still appear unlikely to get the number one spot? Cardinal Sarah’s dilemma – his mainly conservative views – reflects not only the sentiment amongst the other 17 cardinals and the predominant position of the 281 million faithful on the continent, this conservatism also impairs the chances of the African cardinals.
The beggar church
Yet, conservatism is only one of the many obstacles. The African church may have the fastest-growing flock, but it is also the begging bowl. In a world where money is the bicycle of the gospel, the African church is the largest recipient of many forms of financial aid. Although the irony is less rampant among the Catholic church than it is among Pentecostals, Africa has some of the world’s richest Forbes-worthy pastors in contrast to the majority of the poor flock.
According to one statistic, at 32.6 percent between 2020 and 2023, the African Catholic church received the largest assistance per region from the Catholic Charity Aid. Compare this with the German national church, for example, which has $26 billion of the net assets of the Church.
Some also argue that African cardinals have limited chances because they have faced less scrutiny. An article published by www.devdiscourse.com on April 22 acknowledged that even though a figure like Cardinal Turkson has emerged as a potential candidate, “Vatican insiders highlight the lack of public scrutiny by African contenders compared to their Western counterparts, potentially complicating their candidacy.”
Conclave politics
Yet, others say politics may be the most potent obstacle against African candidacy, reminiscent of the deadly secret plots in Straughan’s movie once the doors in the Domus Santa Martha were shuttered and millions of the faithful waited outside the Sistine Chapel to see the white smoke and the face of the new pontiff.
It won’t take very long to find out. Pope Francis wanted his successor elected within two weeks of his death. It used to take much longer. In The Conclave, for example, which spiked 283 percent across streaming platforms in one day from 1.8 million to 6.9 million, it took five votes over an unspecified period to elect the cardinal from Kabul, Cardinal Benitez.
The longest papal conclave after the death of Pope Clement IV lasted almost three years, from November 1268 to September 1, 1271, after which Pope Gregory X was elected.
Long road to change
For the pontificate and the faithful, it’s been a long road since. The Catholic Church has evolved from its medieval conflicts, reformation and counter-reformation through seasons of loss of power.
While books like In God’s Name: An Investigation into the Murder of Pope John Paul I by David A. Yallop highlight the tragedy of an institution endangered by internal corruption and fierce power play, the bestseller, The Da Vinci Code by Dan Brown explores the grip and fascination of theological myth over the faithful and even millions of non-believers.
Yet the encyclicals of Pope Francis, his willingness to confront dogma with doubt and creed with charity, show the extent of introspection and modernisation in the Church. As the world waits for the white smoke from the Conclave, those who hope these changes may be so profound as to produce an African pope may have to wait a bit longer. Perhaps a sequel to Straughan’s movie would be the sign.
The odds, this time, favour yet another Italian pope.
![[OPINION] CBEX Ponzi and ‘Miracle Money’ - Olusegun Adeniyi](/media/k2/items/cache/8759f6054be16eac80e285a4d82fbb3c_XS.jpg)
Long before the late Sergei Mavrodi arrived on the Nigerian financial scene in November 2015 with his MMM pyramid scheme, his reputation as an international fraudster preceded him. As far back as 2007, Mavrodi had been convicted in Russia for defrauding 10,000 investors. But somehow, he survived brushes with the law over sharp practices to go global with a Ponzi scheme that promised 3,000 percent ‘return on investment’ after upending the savings of more than a few people in his country. With such tantalising promise, it came as no surprise that Mavrodi would hit the jackpot in Nigeria where too many citizens are looking for ‘miracle money’.
Unfortunately, by December 2016, the scam had unravelled, leaving about three million Nigerians holding the wrong end of the candle just days before Christmas. “What is the scam here, if all members are warned in advance about all the risks, the possible and impossible ones?” an unrepentant Mavrodi asked in a letter he posted on the page for swindled participants of the scheme but addressed to then President Muhammadu Buhari. “They know there are no investments at all. The warning is a red text on a yellow background placed on the most prominent place of the website.”
Following that misadventure, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned Nigerians about patronizing Ponzi schemes. SEC listed a few of these ventures to include Now-Now Alert, Flip Cash Investment, Result Investment Nigeria Limited, Helping Hand and Investment, No Failure Development and Empowerment Nigeria Ltd, and several others. Despite the warning, patronage for these Ponzi schemes only increased. A few of them also devised a clever way to legitimise their businesses: They boycotted industry regulator, SEC, and secured certificates of registration with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). That became the tool for deceiving the unwary.
The latest of these ‘businesses’ is Crypto Bridge Exchange otherwise called CBEX which has scammed our people to the tune of more than a trillion Naira, going by most reports. Registered with the Corporate Affairs (CAC) last September, its EFCC certificate was obtained in January this year. Because they do their businesses online, it is easy for most of these crooks to evade accountability, but it is also obvious that they have collaborators within the system. It is important that they be identified and brought to justice.
Meanwhile, I have read the lamentation of several of the victims, but they have only themselves to blame. The Yoruba people have a way of putting this: “Ẹni ńwá’fà ńw’ófò.” Crudely translated, it means financial deals that are too good to be true most often end in tears. Perhaps the United States SEC definition of Ponzi schemes would be more useful. “A kind of pyramid scheme that operates on the ‘rob Peter to pay Paul’ principle,” the US commission explains. “With the promise of large returns as bait, the fraudster takes in money from new investors and uses it to pay off the earlier investors until no more new recruits can be found and the whole scheme collapses, with the newest investors losing everything.”
It is easy for all kinds of dubious businesspeople to prey on the greed and ignorance of gullible Nigerians. That is because the virtual collapse of the moral frame of our government mirrors other fractures in our society. There is also a way in which we can connect this to the get-rich-by-any-means mentality that is at the heart of the activities of ritualists as captured in my column of last week. Incidentally, I received several mails on that column but one stood out for me. It is from a young man, Oluwafisayo Agbolabori. He highlighted several things that are often ascribed to ‘miracles’ by many Church leaders in Nigeria in a manner that absolves people of their responsibilities. “At the individual level, such ‘miracles’ corrupt the minds of the gullible into thinking that there is an ‘invisible hand’ somewhere that could change N3,000 to N3,000,000,” he wrote. “As a Christian, I strongly believe in miracles. But my point is this: Instead of sharing these ‘miracles’ that, at best, can’t be replicated by most of our people, the clerics can share the potency (miracle) of self audit, hard work, self reliance etc…”
I agree with Oluwafisayo. The mentality that stupendous wealth could be ‘created’ outside productivity or credible investment also explains why promoters of Ponzi schemes continue to thrive. But the real enablers are the regulatory institutions whose certificates assist these crooks in their nefarious activities. That is where the real inquisition should begin on this matter.
Francis, The Exemplary Pope
Whether you are a Pentecostal or a Catholic, there is something about the Papacy that makes almost every occupant a unifying force for Christians. But in the death of Pope Francis, just as it was with Pope John Paul II in 2005, there is a sense of universal grief. Whatever misgivings anybody had about some of his positions on contemporary issues, Pope Francis was a genuine shepherd who preached love and tolerance in a world where hate and bigotry have become the defining ethos. “Pope Francis will long be remembered for his outreach to those on the margins of the Church and of society,” said Archbishop Timothy Broglio, president of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
From his humble background as a chemical technician and bouncer in his early life, to Bishop in his native country of Argentina, Pope Francis preached social justice for all humanity. He emphasized that clerics must be like medics in a “field hospital” attending to people where they are. And he demonstrated uncommon humility throughout his life and ministry. For instance, in an unprecedented gesture to make the notorious warlord rivals of South Sudan embrace peace, he kissed their feet one by one at the Vatican, after organizing a spiritual retreat for them in April 2019.
There is hardly any worthy social cause that the late Pope did not endorse. On immigration, he tasked leaders to erect bridges and not walls and he supported the campaign on the sustainability of our environment. “The universe unfolds in God, who fills it completely. Hence, there is a mystical meaning to be found in a leaf, in a mountain trail, in a dewdrop, in a poor person’s face,” Pope Francis wrote in his famous ‘Laudato Si’ delivered in 2015 while advocating “a new way of thinking about human beings, life, society and our relationship with nature.”
But perhaps the most controversial legacy of Pope Francis was his taking sides with the marginalised communities in every sphere of life by preaching inclusivity. On that score, he challenged doctrinal orthodoxy on the LGBTQ issue with his famous refrain, “Who am I to judge?” on matters of faith and sexual choices. It was not a popular position even among the Catholics, to put it mildly. Within the Pentecostal family, it was almost an anathema.
As I write this piece, I received a forwarded message. After reading it twice, I felt it perhaps sums up the message Pope Francis was trying to pass to some of us who could not understand him. Almost as if the sender was reading my thoughts, she followed up with a terse message: “It’s easy to be judgemental. The late Pope is a shining example of how NOT to be. A sad loss.” I was shocked that the message reflected exactly what I was thinking at the time.
On reflection, it couldn’t have been an accident that Pope Francis died on Easter Monday. “There are three virtues that the world still needs — faith, hope and love,” King Charles of England wrote in his Easter message last weekend. “And the greatest of these is love”. Yet, to love means we must embrace and respect others even when we disagree with their choices. Therefore, to those whose knowledge of the Bible is restricted to what happened to Sodom and Gomorrah, Pope Francis is reminding us that there is also Psalm 130 verse 3 in the same Bible: “Lord, if you kept record of our sins, O LORD, who could stand?”
Now, to the WhatsApp message. Like all such messages, nobody knows the original writer, but here it goes, though slightly abridged:
I chuckled the first time I came across the phrase, “Until you have money to finance your temptations, don’t brag about morals. Too much is hidden in poverty.” It peeled back the comfortable layers of ‘self-righteousness’ we often wear and exposed an uncomfortable truth: that what we sometimes call morality may, in fact, be a privilege of limited options. It reminded me of another saying: “You call it corruption – until it comes your way. Then you’ll call it connections. And if you’re religious, you might even call it grace.”
In our moral superiority, we mistake the absence of opportunity for strength of character. And in doing so, we judge others through a lens clouded by comfort, detachment, and unchecked privilege. It’s easy to seem disciplined when nothing desirable is within reach. Easy to appear loyal when there’s no better offer on the table. Easy to claim honesty when a lie has never promised to save you. And so, we stand on our ‘safe little hills’ of assumed virtue, pointing fingers at those who fall—never pausing to ask whether we’d have done any better in their place. Maybe we haven’t resisted as much as we think. Perhaps we’ve just never been offered the shortcut.
This isn’t to romanticize failure or excuse poor choices. It’s not to say wrong becomes right if it’s understandable. No. It’s a call to humility. A reminder that judgment without context isn’t strength. It’s easy to judge others simply because they sin differently than you. It’s easy …to scoff at the one who compromised – until your own values are tested not in theory, but in fire. And when that ‘fire’ comes – and it does come – you begin to understand that real morality is quiet. It’s forged in private. And it costs.
We shouldn’t glorify mistakes or blur the line between right and wrong. But we must stop weaponizing virtue. Because morality isn’t proven by the absence of failure. It’s revealed in the presence of options. It’s folly to assume we’re better simply because we haven’t faced the same storms. Life has a funny way of humbling people. The very thing you once judged may become the thing you one day understand. And when that moment comes, may you be met with compassion – not condemnation. We’re all human. All learning. All navigating the chaos of life with the tools we’ve been given, in stories the world may never fully know. So, hold your standards high – but hold your heart higher. Speak truth—but season it with tenderness. And let your integrity be the kind that doesn’t need a stage to be real.
Pope Francis did not author the above. But that, I guess, was the message he was trying to pass to some of us. May his legacy endure!
![[OPINION] Rivers as ATM without password - Jide Oluwajuyitan](/media/k2/items/cache/6ea5a824ea8124d2465b51a83e561f46_XS.jpg)
Spending unappropriated revenue is a serious offence in a democracy. But that may not be applicable to us here where equality before the law is not only a myth but where our governors who are above the law can feely fritter away N300m. As if that is not bad enough, there are just too many ignoble fortune-seekers within the noble profession of law who will rather trade in chaos than in stability.
If you are in doubt, just take one look at the two-year old war against Fubara’s government. What you see are reckless elders fuelling the crisis by talking from both sides of the mouth; hungry and angry youths who expect crumbs following and hailing Fubara after every act of sabotage against his own government, television platforms that lionize clueless Fubara every morning while they smile to the banks in the afternoon with millions they haul in through news commercialization.
We cannot easily forget, Ugochinyere, an interloper from Imo State who became Fubara interpreter of court judgments.
And of course we now know those ignoble men in the judiciary who after collecting Fubara’s N300m gift, failed the people of the Rivers by not availing their governor of the proper interpretation of court judgments or bold enough to remind him the buck stops at his table. However, to make up for their betrayal, they are today blindly fighting the perceived enemies of Fubara – the executive, legislature and even the Supreme Court, moving from one television house to the other.
But it must be said that we have always had ignoble fortune-seekers in our judiciary. The first republic threw up Ben Nwabueze, the author of Unitary Decree 34 of 1966 which led to a civil war and whose effect continues to haunt the country. He also featured in the aborted third republic with his interim government decree that effectively aborted the third republic, paving the way for Sani Abacha, an evil dictator to wage a five-year war against Nigeria.
In the second republic, we had Chief Kehinde Sofola, an attorney general and one-time chairman of Body of Benchers who sadly admitted that “the primary duty of the judiciary is to protect the judiciary”. In the fourth republic, we have had an Abubakar Malami, attorney general who sabotaged Buhari’s anti-corruption war by attempting to smuggle and indicted fellow into the civil service, chased out of office the chair of the EFCC he had falsely accused of fraud, and misled President Buhari on the war against Nigeria by immigrant herdsmen whose illegal infiltration of reserved forest in the southwest he encouraged.
Now let us examine how the NBA chairman is prosecuting his defence of Fubara’s N300m gift.
Governor Fubara, unable to manage his own government, committed an error of judgment by opting to deal with Victor Oko-Jumbo-led three-man House of Assembly, despite Court of Appeal affirmation of a Federal High Court order that it was constitutionally wrong of him to deal with only three of the 32-man assembly. Fubara had insisted that 27 members of his House of Assembly do not exist. In February, the Supreme Court put an end to such conceit by declaring that: “What is clear is that the 27 lawmakers are still valid members of the Rivers State House of Assembly and cannot be prevented from participating in the proceedings of the House by the governor in cahoots with the four other members” and made it clear that “Sections 102 and 109 cannot be invoked in aid of this unconstitutional enterprise”.
The Supreme Court was to add that “As it is, there is no government in Rivers State… political disagreements cannot justify these attacks and contempt for the rule of law by the governor of a state or any person. What he has done is to destroy the government for the fear of being impeached”.
Afam Osigwe who slept all through two years of what the Supreme Court described as ‘Fubara’s despotic rule’ did not wake up from his slumber long after the fallout of the supreme court judgment with the aggrieved 27 House of Assembly members whose salaries had been seized for two years, demanding their pound of flesh by slamming the governor with impeachment notice.
Exploiting the ethnic divide as the first Ijaw man to be elected governor of Rivers State, Fubara was ready for a showdown. He publicly told jobless and marginalised Rivers youths who follow him around streets of Port Harcourt to wait for instructions. Less than 24 hours later, oil pipeline whether by fifth columnists as argued by his supporters, or his supporters, started exploding.
The president chaired a security meeting of his security chiefs. He promptly shared the intelligence at his disposal with the National Assembly and what followed was declaration of six months of state emergency and suspension of the warring governor and his state House of Assembly members jointly responsible for absence of government in the past two years in Rivers.
Since Rivers State allocation was ordered to be withheld by the Supreme Court following Fubara’s breach of one of the most serious impeachable offences in a democracy- spending taxpayers money without appropriation, a sole administrator needed to be appointed to ensure payment of salaries to essential workers such as teachers, medical workers and civil servants.
It was not until this time Osigwe woke up from his deep slumber. But that did not stop him from concluding that the situation in Rivers did not call for declaration of a state of emergency. Osigwe, who is not privy to the information at the disposal of the president and the National Assembly that have upheld the decision of the president insisted the president’s action was illegal. He also declared the president’s suspension of the governor and other elected members of the state assembly unconstitutional ignoring the fact that the constitution gives the president discretionary power to do whatever he deems fit to avert anarchy.
As an officer in the temple of justice, he did not wait to allow the courts that can make a distinction between the letter of the law and the spirit of the law to decide if the president’s discretionary powers cover suspension of the main obstacle to peace and the democratic process, i.e, the fumbling Governor Fubara and his vengeance-seeking lawmakers.
Afam decided to usurp the role of opposition leaders like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi who are at liberty to exploit every action of the president for political gain like opposition politicians; Afam started moving from one television station to the other selling what can at best be described as warped logic.
But we now know, courtesy of the Rivers’ sole administrator, that Afam’s blind fury is all about Fubara’s N300m gift to NBA which the sole administrator insists must be returned. He anchored his argument on the fact that since the money does not belong to Fubara but to Rivers State programed to benefit from hosting the NBA’s conference, which Afam had unilaterally moved to Enugu as if Rivers has ceased to exist because of Fubara’s temporary absence, there was no basis to refund the money.
As if taking N300m that would have been enough to build an hospital or a cottage industry that could absorb some Rivers street boys was not enough assault on sensibility of Nigerians, the claim by the chairman of the NBA 2025 Conference Planning Committee, Emeka Obegolu’s (SAN), that the money was “an unconditional gift to support the event” was insensitive.
It is also not of any relief that while successive governors of Rivers including Fubara, Nyesom Wike, Rotimi Amaechi often try to outdo each other by bringing notable Nigerians to commission projects, the readily available jobs to the teeming youths of Rivers remain blowing up of oil pipelines when the elite want to blackmail the federal government or torching of government buildings, and visiting violence on each other when involved in intra-party feuds that have come to define every election in Rivers.
It is reassuring that credible voices in NBA including that of Andrew Emwanta, president of the African Public Interest Lawyers Union are already warning Osigwe who after sleeping all through two years of Fubara’s ‘despotic rule’. He accused him of starting a condemnation of the emergency move “barely two hours after the broadcast”. For him, “The proper thing to do, “to save the image of our profession, is for that money to be refunded. It’s Rivers taxpayers’ money. If you are not doing business with them, return their money.”
It is sad that NBA’s Afam Osigwe and some of his fellow travellers are not ashamed of joining PDP parasites whose elections Wike claimed he partly funded and their media enablers who regard Rivers as ATM without password.
Afrobeat singer Mayorkun has hinted at marriage, revealing he’s off the singles market.
In a recent interview on Arise TV, he disclosed that he’s committed to someone special, although he prefers to keep their identity private for now.
Mayorkun said: “I am off the market. There is no chance for any other girl. I am not going to mention my partner’s name or give any details about her now. My fingers are crossed on that. But eventually, everyone will know her.”
This isn’t the first time Mayorkun has been linked to someone. He made his relationship public with UK-based Nigerian choreographer Cocainna, sharing photos and videos on Snapchat.
However, it seems that relationship has ended, as Mayorkun confirmed they’re no longer together but maintain a good relationship.
A video surfaced of him being close to Dorathy Bachor at a birthday party in 2023 surface online.
However, neither party has confirmed or denied the rumoured relationship.
[TheNation]