When vultures surround you, stay awake so that you do not die stupid death. Whether you are in business or you are in politics or you are anything of value, stay alive and stay alert. People shave people’s heads in their absence. In 1938, Britain was rumoured to have toyed with the idea of donating Nigeria to Germany as one of its several offerings of appeasement to Hitler. I read of the “strong rumour” in Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s first book, ‘Path to Nigerian Freedom’, published in 1947 – page 38. 

Hitler, two years earlier (September 11, 1936), insisted on “Germany’s right to colonies.” Nine months before Hitler’s insistence, his minister of propaganda, Goebbels, served a notice that “the time will come when we must demand colonies from the world.” In June 1938, Mary E. Townsend published her ‘The German Colonies and the Third Reich.’ She cited two successive editions of the London Times of October 1936 which reported that Hitler had “gained concessions in Africa.” 

The German cup, as it turned out, passed from Nigeria. The rumoured offer to Hitler was eventually not consummated but the mere thought of it tells how ‘valued’ our country and its people were in the heart of those who possessed it. But it is needless to run from fate. You put destiny in a sheath, it destroys the sheath; you put it in a scabbard, it ruins the scabbard. If Nigeria missed being possessed by Germany’s Hitler in 1938, the country’s subsequent history of abduction and rape up to this moment is proof that our fathers were right with their theory of inevitability of fate. A snake swallowing its tail, and swallowing it hard is Nigeria. It is a pool of water-snakes feasting on hapless fishes. 

On Friday this week, it will be 38 years since Chief Awolowo died. Two months before he died on 9 May, 1987, Awo spoke rather cryptically of his “continuing to serve even after death.” Almost 40 years after his transition, his views of Nigeria, his analyses of the systemic problems of the country and his solutions to them have remained the main issues of discussion. 

Awolowo’s ‘Path to Nigerian Freedom’ has proved a worthy carrier of its title. But the path it shows has remained not taken. The late Pius Adesanmi once, at an Awolowo Foundation event, questioned the choice we make as a country. He spoke on what he called “Igbo ree; Ona ree (the bush is here; the path is here).” The choice was – and is – for us to make. We’ve consistently chosen the bush. 

I read the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF)’s boast of last week that the North had the muscle and the number to choose the next president for the other parts of the country. It reminded us that: “The North has 19 out of the 36 states. We also have the FCT as a veritable component. We have a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives, the National Economic Council as well as the Council of State. The North occupies close to 75 percent of Nigeria’s land area and about 60 percent of the population. An area that is this big and this strong can never be subdued by any opponent…For the moment, it will suffice to say that Northern Nigeria is watching and auditing the actions of the elected and appointed officials, especially at the federal level.” 

Northern leaders always flaunt their population and land mass to intimidate the South. Assets when not harnessed to profitability become liabilities. We say here that vulture may be a large bird, but what it feeds on is rotten flesh. The elephant in its ponderous majesty is as clumsy as they come. Àwòdì tí ń gbé adìẹ lọ́sàn-án ò sanra tó igún. I wonder why it did not occur to the ACF that kites that snatch chicks in broad daylight do not have vulture’s large frame. It is not by size. 

Everything the ACF said was a threat directed at President Bola Tinubu on his second term ambition. Of course, the Tinubu pigeon got the full import of the incantations from the Northern raptor. He rushed to Katsina on Friday – two days after the warning shot was fired. He was there for two days, he even slept there. Tinubu should clap for himself. Did Buhari sleep one night anywhere in Southern Nigeria in his eight years? The visit was Tinubu’s appeasement offering to Hitler to avoid a ‘world war’. Let us hope the aggrieved are pacified now.

Unlike what our teachers taught us, sovereignty is no longer the supreme will of the state; its locus is with any set of human beings “sufficiently strong to compel obedience” to their whims. The North self-assuredly thinks it is the Nigerian sovereign. It said so through the ACF and the president got the message. 

The North thought Goodluck Jonathan was its problem; it got its traditional enemies in Benue and Plateau and the West to join it in removing Jonathan. The North thought having a northern president would solve its existential problems. It brought in Muhammadu Buhari. Under Buhari, the North’s problems multiplied in geometric proportions. It thought a Muslim Muslim ticket was what it needed to be safe and feed well. It brought in a ‘Muslim’ government in May 2023. Less than two years into the tenure of that government of faith, the North is grunting and grumbling very loudly; it shouts marginalization. A million change of government won’t help the north. It must help itself. 

The ACF also expressed concern over insecurity in the North. It said the security challenges in the North were worsening by the day. It then called on the federal government to act swiftly “before it becomes too late.” I will be happy and dance if I find out that it is not already too late. 

By now, it should be clear to the wise that the problem of the North is not, strictly, Bola Tinubu and his ways. The problem wasn’t Jonathan; neither was it Buhari. The problem of the North is the North – its bad ways. Why would a region not have problems of mass poverty when it spurns mass education of its mass children, youths who own tomorrow? Mass procreation plus mass illiteracy must equal mass misery. It is simple arithmetic. Why will there not be blistering insecurity where mass poverty reigns? If you turn your back to where the world faces, you won’t see what the world sees. How will a president relate with a people that take offence when asked to position their eyes towards the future? The best rules the rest in that country called Saudi Arabia. The elite there have used education to elevate their country and their faith. China’s huge population is a huge economic blessing to it. But, the key to northern Nigeria is in the hands of a band of clerics and dark elites who exploit their people’s unquestioning faith in their region and religion, warts and all. 

I read a beautiful piece on Saturday from a gentleman from the North, Idris Muhammed Abdullahi. He wanted a deliverer for northern Nigeria. Like the ACF and its leaders, Abdullahi didn’t write for Nigeria; his interest was the North. He lamented the decay and disappointment that rules his region. He cited the establishment of the Northwest Development Commission (NWDC). He said it was supposed to mark a turning point in the development of the region. “What then happened?” he asked and added that: “One man handpicked all its executives. The commission has now become a personal ATM, hemorrhaging funds meant for schools, irrigation, rural roads, and youth empowerment. It has transformed from a symbol of hope into yet another playground for elite looting.”

What the gentleman wrote of the North is true of everywhere in the country. And it is historical. Nigeria is an elite PoS – or the soup pot of the powerful. How each of our people reacts to it has also historically made the difference. Wrong, when accommodated, festers. Chief Awolowo said it in a more elegant and profound way 46 years ago. He told ‘Africa’ magazine in April 1979 that “since independence, our governments have been a matter of a few holding the cow for the strongest and most cunning to milk. Under the circumstances, everybody runs over everybody to make good at the expense of others.” 

The most popular page in Awo’s ‘Path to Nigerian Freedom’ is page 47. That is where you find the famous quote: “Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression.” Seventy-seven years after that book was published, to be called Nigerian has remained “merely a distinctive appellation” distinguishing “those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who do not.” Each constituent part of the country has held tight to its gene. When we talk or act, it is for where each of us comes from. Read the ACF statement again. It speaks about ‘us’ and ‘them’ and boasts of assets without discussing the liabilities.

The groups in the South think the North a pampered, pompous parasite. Think of why Max Siollun, author of ‘What Britain Did to Nigeria’, described Nigeria as “just a page in a colonial accounting ledger” and why the British officially took the 1914 amalgamation to be a marriage between a poor, hapless husband and a helpless “southern lady of means.”

Check the tone of the ACF complaints; the challenges of governance have been reduced to a North versus South battle. Now, I ask: For how long shall we remain so “tightly fragmented” and have our growth stunted? 

In the 1947 book above, Chief Awolowo observed that the various nations that make up Nigeria cannot progress and prosper together unless they are properly organized in a federation. “The languages differ…Their cultural backgrounds and social outlooks differ widely; and their indigenous political institutions have little in common. Their present stages of development vary.” It is in that book that you read how, 77 years ago, the ethnic groups in the South readily embraced Western civilisation while “the extremely conservative” Hausas and Fulanis took “very reluctantly to Western civilization.” As it was in 1947, so it is in 2025. If thrown up a hundred years from now, the northern hand fan will land side down.

A copius quote from Chief Awolowo here: “All these incompatibilities among the various peoples in the country militate against unification. For one thing, they are bound to slow down progress in certain sections, and on the other hand they tend to engender unfriendly feelings among the diverse elements thus forced together.” Chief Awolowo warned that “incompatibilities such as we have enumerated are barriers which cannot be overcome by glossing over them, They are real, not imaginary obstacles. Those who place these groups under the same constitution ignore them at their peril – more so, as it appears that these incompatibilities tend to grow in size as those concerned become more educated and civilized.” 

If you can find time to read the book, check what the author wrote while citing the Welsh and the Scottish peoples’ experiences and agitation for self-rule. Check his words on other positive examples and the reason some of us say we are postponing the evil day if we think elite looting facilitated by a unitarised Nigeria will ever bring peace and plenty. Listen to Chief Awolowo: “For upwards of seven hundred years, the Irish people struggled to, and eventually did break away from England in spite of the fact that the latter did everything possible to give the former equal status within the British Constitution.” When you read him, you discover that, indeed, two of the three other examples he cited, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, have already unravelled as he predicted; the third, the Dutch-speaking Flemings of Belgium, despite several constitutional interventions, still demand degrees of autonomy. Some of them, in fact, have not stopped chanting “Let My People Go.”

So, what is the solution? 

The solution is knowing that there is no regeneration in spring water flowing towards the desert. Tell the North, tell the South. “Whatever would direct itself after the setting sun, an ashen death lies in wait for it” (Ayi Kwei Armah). Chief Awolowo pointed at the empirical facts of history which he said “are enough to guide us.” He posited that it had been shown beyond all doubts “that the best constitution for… diverse peoples is a federal constitution.” He pointed at the Constitution of Switzerland, which he said “is acclaimed to be the best and the most democratic in the world since it gives complete autonomy to every racial group within the framework.” 

In a truly federal Nigeria, there won’t be allegations of Muhammadu Buhari regime marginalising the South; neither will there be a Bola Tinubu government suffering the stigma of being a Yoruba government. A weak centre will be too unattractive to attract do-or-die politics; neither will it serve as a fetter holding down any part that wants to run. It will serve any one content with crawling to continue to crawl – as we compulsorily do today. 

But can we take a redemptive bend? The wise would say we are too far gone to retrace our steps. “No spring changes the desert. The desert remains” – that, again, is from Armah. Creating a workable system – a system that works – is what we have refused to come up with. We know what it is and how it will serve us, but we just won’t go for it. For us, the bush is the way.

By the time you are reading this, we would have had a good belly laugh, a few or more persons would have also been arrested, must have had their hair cut by overzealous security personnel. It is Nigeria, the deed done, we would have moved on to the next matter.

Minna, the capital of Niger State, faces genuine security challenges—thuggery, cultism, and drug-related crimes—that demand urgent action. However, Governor Umar Mohammed Bago’s Executive Order on Thuggery Activities (22/04/2025) responds to these issues with measures that flagrantly violate legal norms, human rights, and constitutional principles. While the intent to restore order is understandable, the order’s provisions exemplify executive overreach, collective punishment, and a dangerous disregard for due process. 

Let me quickly state that I am not a lawyer…and I am not sure that I need to be one to share my fact—based opinions.

The executive order’s most egregious clauses contravene Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution and international human rights standards: Extrajudicial Killings and Collective Punishment (Clause 1): Declaring that individuals found with weapons (even sticks) should be “treated as armed robbers” and killed, with families charged for bullets, violates Section 33 of the Constitution, which guarantees the right to life. It also imposes collective punishment, outlawed under international law. Such measures normalize state-sanctioned violence and erode public trust. 

I don’t want to talk about the Criminalizing Appearance (Clause 2) is a profound testament to how our thoughts are wired. Arresting citizens for dreadlocks—a cultural and religious symbol for many—infringes on personal liberty (Section 34) and freedom of expression (Section 39). Targeting hairstyles is discriminatory and fuels marginalization, akin to past oppressive policies like Nigeria’s 1984 “War Against Indiscipline.” Which is why it did not succeed and it is not about to succeed now.

How about Property Rights and Due Process (Clause 6): Demolishing homes without court orders violates Section 44’s protection against compulsory property acquisition. Similarly, confiscating vehicles (Clause 10) bypasses judicial oversight, rendering the state both accuser and judge.  

I can tell that on Curfews and Overreach (Clauses 3, 9): While curfews can be legitimate, blanket bans on Okada/Keke Napep without consultation disproportionately harm low-income workers. Centralizing “Operation Flush” under the governor politicizes security agencies, risking abuse.  

And on the Erosion of Judicial Independence (Clause 7): Establishing “special courts” under the Chief Judge’s supervision risks undermining judicial impartiality, as expedited trials may compromise fair hearings (Section 36).  

These clauses reflect a troubling trend: governance by decree, not law.  

The order’s rationale—combating crime through fear—is both ineffective and unethical. History shows that heavy-handed tactics, like our not too far in the past SARS unit approach, exacerbates violence and alienation. By equating sticks with firearms, the order dehumanizes youths, many of whom are victims of systemic neglect. Demolishing homes and arresting community leaders (Clauses 5–6) scapegoats the poor while ignoring elite enablers of crime. Worse, it diverts attention from the government’s failure to address root causes: unemployment, poor education, and institutional corruption.  

The absurdity of these measures recalls a tale of a lawyer who sold a well to a teacher, only to later insist the water wasn’t included. When the teacher threatened to charge rent for the water, the lawyer retreated, exposing the folly of such exploitative logic. Governor Bago’s order mirrors this hypocrisy: it weaponizes legal technicalities to strip citizens of rights, much like the lawyer’s hollow claim over the well’s water. But just as the teacher turned the tables, the people of Minna can—and must—challenge this overreach. The order’s contradictions reveal its fragility; collective resistance can force accountability, as the teacher’s wit did the lawyer’s greed.

Sustainable solutions require addressing socio-economic drivers of crime and restoring trust. Now my dear governor and brother…to my grouse. I have a dread and I am not a criminal—

I believe you could have resorted to Community Policing: Train officers to work with local leaders, youth groups, and NGOs to identify risks collaboratively. A better approach and initiative that can reduce crime through dialogue and intelligence-sharing.  

How much has your government invested in vocational programs, public education, and job creation? For example, how many schemes are currently running to curb cultism by offering alternatives to crime.  

Truth be told, I keep stating that strengthening existing courts to handle cases swiftly while ensuring fairness is better than Mobile courts and improved legal aid services can improve access to justice without sacrificing rights.  

At the heart of these increased crime rates is the drug menace, I dare say, replacing punitive drug policies with health-focused approaches. Partnerships with NGOs can provide counseling and reintegration support.

At the heart of all the backlash also is the fact that there is an inherent flaw in the Political Communication methodology. Governor Bago’s authoritarian rhetoric deepens divides. Better political communication would: Engage Citizens: Hold town halls to co-create policies with affected communities. Promote Transparency: Publish crime data and budget allocations for security initiatives. Avoid Stigmatization: Replace inflammatory language (e.g., “thugs”) with terms that recognize systemic failures.  

The Minna executive order substitutes tyranny for justice. True security cannot be built on violated rights and collective punishment. By embracing dialogue, equity, and accountability, Niger State can tackle its challenges without sacrificing the rule of law. As Bob Marley, the “Natty Dread” himself, once sang: “Until the philosophy which holds one race superior and another inferior is finally discredited, everywhere is war.” Let Minna’s war on crime not become a war on its people—May Nigeria win!

--

Prince Charles Dickson PhD

Team Lead

The Tattaaunawa Roundtable Initiative (TRICentre)

The collapse of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) structure into the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Delta State could either strengthen or destabilize the APC, depending on how well old and new members integrate.
Interestingly, most of the original APC members in Delta were themselves former PDP members. So, the latest defectors are simply following a path previously taken by their predecessors.
In essence, the APC in Delta today is largely made up of former PDP members — from leadership to grassroots.

Make no mistake about it,there is nothing wrong in defection, per se.
After all the president of the United States of America, USA, Donald J Trump did not commence his political career as a member of the Republican party. Rather he registered as a Republican party member in only in 1987, and became a member of the lndependent party , the New York state affiliate of the Reform party in 1999. He was a Democrat in 2001 , a Republican in 2009 and he became unaffiliated in 2011 and finally returned to the Republican party in 2012.
Similarly, Robert F Kennedy Jnr defected from the Democratic party in the course of his presidential race in 2024 to contest as an lndependent party cancidate. He is currently the Health and Human Services secretary in President Trump’s administration after he colapsed his campaign into Trump’s Republican party campaign platform .
So, there is no big deal about defection in a democracy.
What should concern APC leaders in Abuja is whether the internal rivalries that fractured the PDP — and triggered the current wave of defections — might resurface and destabilize the APC if not properly managed.
The emerging APC, both in Delta and nationally, increasingly resembles the PDP of old — merely repackaged under a different banner.

Delta State, often described as a microcosm of Nigeria due to its diverse ethnic makeup, frequently reflects broader national trends.
Thus, the mass defection happening in the state that prides herself as the “Big Heart state” could signal the beginning of an even wider migration of politicians across the country, at a scale Nigeria has never witnessed before.

To ensure a smooth merger of the old and new party members, the APC State Chairman, Elder Omeni Sobotie, has directed all local government chairmen to collect registration booklets to formally enroll the new members, completing their transition into the party.

However, tensions from the 2023 elections, when the APC’s Ovie Omo-Agege contested against the PDP’s Sheriff Oborevwori, still linger. Although overt hostilities may be muted, old rivalries could resurface if not carefully managed — possibly requiring intervention from the party’s leadership in Abuja.

Among the old APC loyalists, who are politically weaker compared to the PDP’s dominance in Delta’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches, there may be a tendency to look down on the newcomers, branding them derisively as the “Taiwan APC.”
In local Nigerian parlance, especially among motor spare parts traders, “Taiwan” is used to describe imitation or inferior products — a reference to Taiwan’s early reputation for cheap manufacturing.

The use of “Taiwan” as a political insult gained prominence during the 2023 presidential elections, reportedly popularized by Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate. Obi, who dramatically disrupted Nigeria’s political landscape, especially the PDP’s strongholds, allegedly dismissed Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa — Atiku Abubakar’s running mate — as a “Taiwan Igbo.”
By that, Obi implied that Okowa, being from the Ika-speaking region of Delta State (the Igbo-speaking area of Delta North), was not an authentic Igbo, but rather an imitation — a symbolic slight against the PDP’s choice of running mate.

It appears that, because they originate from west of the Niger River, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and the people of Delta North are not seen by many eastern Igbos as authentic members of the Igbo ethnic group. Consequently, they are often perceived as “fake” or “Taiwan” Igbos — a term used locally to imply imitation.

Drawing a parallel from this sentiment, the recent influx of PDP defectors into the APC in Delta State could risk being seen in a similar light — as “Taiwan APC” — if tensions between old and new members are not properly managed.

To avoid such damaging divisions, the APC must ensure seamless integration. Fortunately, the party has significant experience managing mergers, dating back to 2013 when it successfully united the ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of the PDP into the current APC platform. Given this track record, it should not be difficult for the party’s national leadership, particularly Chairman Dr. Abdulahi Umar Ganduje, to create a task force to manage the blending process — similar to how businesses handle mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

Events unfolding in Nigeria’s political arena suggest that President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign will be anything but business as usual.
While the PDP is attempting to replicate Tinubu’s 2013 strategy — merging opposition forces into a special-purpose political vehicle to oust the ruling party — it is ironically being weakened by an aggressive takeover orchestrated by the APC.
Tinubu, much like a masterful Samurai or a Sumotori (Sumo wrestler), has disarmed and destabilized his opposition two years before the next election cycle.

It’s worth recalling that President Muhammadu Buhari himself once credited Tinubu for his eventual success in the 2015 presidential election, after three failed attempts. Tinubu’s depth in political strategy has always been a major force in Nigerian politics.

To draw a clearer parallel, in the corporate world, a hostile takeover occurs when a stronger company seizes control of a weaker, underperforming firm — usually without the consent of its management — by directly appealing to shareholders.
Hostile takeovers are characterized by unsolicited bids, bypassing management, and fierce resistance from the target company’s leadership.

Some typical tactics used in hostile takeovers include:
• Tender Offers: Public offers to buy shares directly from shareholders, usually at a premium.
• Proxy Fights: Efforts to install new management by winning shareholder votes.
• Bear Hugs: Aggressive offers that pressure the target company’s board into acceptance.

There are also classic defenses against hostile takeovers:
• Poison Pills: Strategies that make the takeover financially painful for the bidder.
• White Knights: Seeking a more friendly acquirer.
• Golden Parachutes: Offering lucrative severance packages to executives to deter acquisition.

Applying these concepts to politics, the 2013 creation of the APC was similar to a business merger — parties voluntarily combined for mutual benefit.
In contrast, today’s scenario resembles a hostile political takeover: the ruling APC is absorbing members from weakened opposition parties like the PDP, without formal mergers — often without the defectors’ original leadership’s blessing.

Critics argue that this mass migration signals the alarming drift toward a one-party state, raising concerns about “state capture.”
However, I view it differently: it is part of the natural evolution of Nigeria’s democratic experiment — much like refining gold through fire.
If Nigeria never explores different governance models, how will we know whether multi-party democracy truly suits us? One-party systems have both strengths and weaknesses, just like multi-party ones.
As the saying goes, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating.” Perhaps it’s time we stop relying solely on imported democratic templates and start developing a homegrown system that fits Nigeria’s unique cultural and social realities.

While the defection of the entire PDP political structure in Delta State to the APC last Monday made a major impact on Nigerian politics, the PDP’s decline has been a long time coming. It began in 2010, after President Umaru Yar’adua’s death, only two years into his term. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan took over and eventually ran for office himself, a move seen by many as a betrayal of earlier agreements. His election sparked a revolt within the PDP, led by Atiku Abubakar, Senate President Bukola Saraki, and a handful of governors who later defected to the APC.

In a sense, history is repeating itself in 2025, with Ifeanyi Okowa — the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate — moving over to the APC, much like Atiku did before the 2015 elections. Similarly, Peter Obi, PDP’s vice-presidential candidate in 2019, defected to the Labour Party (LP) to pursue his own presidential ambition in 2023.

As Atiku plans to create a coalition to challenge President Tinubu, similar to what he helped orchestrate in 2013 against Jonathan, he must recognize that Tinubu is a much savvier political operator than Jonathan was. Tinubu appears proactive, unveiling new strategies to maintain his grip on power.
To second guess him, I
its unlikely that he has exhausted his political options yet.

Despite the economic hardships — with inflation, currency fluctuations, and economic strain — there are signs of improvement: the Dangote Refinery promises an end to fuel scarcity, inflation is moderating, foreign reserves have grown, and initiatives like NELFUND are expanding access to education by democratizing university education in the manner the sage Obafemi Awolowo offered the western region free education and put the yoruba nation ahead of all other states in terms of education.
These positive developments may be enough to sustain voter support for Tinubu and the APC into 2027.

Historically, inflation alone doesn’t determine electoral outcomes in Nigeria. Major political shifts usually stem from larger causes or organized movements. For instance, the opposition to Jonathan’s re-election was driven by perceptions of broken agreements on power rotation. Similarly, in 2023, the “Obidient” movement, fueled by discontent from the Southeast, weakened PDP’s chances, helping Tinubu emerge victorious.

Although there are signs of dissatisfaction in the North — particularly a sense of neglect despite the region delivering 62% of Tinubu’s 2023 votes — Tinubu’s political instincts may help him navigate this better than Jonathan did. His strategy seems focused on consolidating control over the southern states: Yoruba regions, the South-South, and the Southeast.

While critics point to Governor Sanwo-Olu’s inability to secure Lagos votes for Tinubu in 2023, other governors like Ademola Adeleke delivered Osun a PDP state to Atiku. Thus, having key governors on your side still matters. Now with former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, and political heavyweight James Ibori (leader of the Niger Delta region)aligned with President Tinubu, Delta State — and the wider Niger Delta — could swing towards APC in 2027.

In the South-South, other states could follow. Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Akwa Ibom’s current leadership could help flip that state too. Cross River is already under APC control. Enugu Governor Peter Mbah is cozying up to APC, hinting at a possible defection. President Tinubu’s visit and praises for him recently further suggest warming ties.

In Anambra, Governor Chukwuma Soludo (APGA) may also align with Tinubu, especially since he won’t face re-election stress after winning a second term. Similarly, Abia’s LP Governor Alex Otti, who has a strained relationship with Peter Obi and whose party is weak nationally, could also be swayed to the APC side, despite official denials.

Rivers State’s political crisis, led by the Wike-Fubara feud, could ultimately benefit Tinubu, especially now that most of Rivers’ National Assembly members have pledged support for his re-election. This political realignment across the South mirrors the 2013-2015 period, when northern politicians defected massively from PDP to APC to oust Jonathan.

Meanwhile, Imo and Ebonyi are already firmly APC, while Oyo and Osun are technically PDP but acted independently during the last election. It’s feasible that Osun, surrounded by APC states, could eventually flip too.

Overall, Tinubu appears to be managing the political chessboard masterfully. Despite ongoing challenges, he stands a strong chance of winning re-election in 2027. The forces gathering against him seem unlikely to match his political acumen or organizational strength. Unlike Jonathan, Tinubu is proving to be a far more formidable opponent.

Therefore, it’s unlikely that President Tinubu can be unseated in the same way the opposition toppled former President Jonathan in 2015. A Ugandan proverb offers some insight:
“It is survival, not bravery, that makes a man climb a thorny tree.”
The current attempt by certain politicians to form a coalition against the ruling government is a desperate bid to wrest the presidency from Tinubu in 2027.

Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe once posed a poignant question:
“How do you convince future generations that education is the key to success when poor graduates and wealthy criminals surround us?”
Applying this logic, how can members of the PDP and other opposition parties be persuaded to stay loyal when their parties—particularly the PDP and Labour Party, which placed second and third respectively in 2023—are in disarray?
Realistically, who would willingly stay aboard a sinking ship?

It’s fair to say Nigeria may be drifting toward a one-party system—but whether this is by design or a natural evolution is debatable. Claims that President Tinubu and the APC are orchestrating a “state capture” seem misplaced. The internal crises ravaging the PDP and LP are largely self-inflicted. Their inability to manage internal divisions has triggered an exodus, as politicians naturally seek safer ground.

While Tinubu is focused on strengthening his base in the South, where he faced challenges during the last election, he hasn’t neglected his northern supporters either. Vice President Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri from the Northeast and former governor of Borno State, still commands significant influence in the region. Moreover, Tinubu’s cabinet includes a substantial number of former governors and influential northern politicians who can help consolidate his support there.

Having secured 62% of his 2023 votes from the North, Tinubu is likely to intensify his outreach as the 2027 election approaches. He may also be counting on the positive results of his economic reforms—such as declining inflation, stabilizing forex rates, and infrastructure achievements—to sway public opinion and strengthen his position.

The mass defection of the PDP’s structure into the APC in Delta State could either stabilize or destabilize the APC locally, depending on how old and new members integrate.

Essentially, the APC is executing a hostile political takeover, similar to corporate mergers and acquisitions in business. Unlike 2013–2015, when opposition parties voluntarily merged to challenge PDP dominance, today’s defections are driven more by survival instincts than strategic planning. The politicians leaving the PDP are responding to the party’s collapse, preferring to jump ship rather than go down with it—an exodus vividly demonstrated by the mass movement from PDP to APC in Delta State.

As it stands, Nigeria appears headed toward a one-party system—another phase in its political evolution. Whether the APC will dominate for 16 years or eventually implode, (as did PDP after 16 years) leading to the emergence of new parties, remains to be seen. Political evolution in Nigeria is dynamic, unpredictable, and often mirrors natural survival patterns.

Yet, a pressing question remains: if the APC becomes the overwhelmingly dominant party, what credible alternatives exist?
Ironically, many of those trying to build a new coalition against Tinubu are themselves remnants of the fractured PDP—the very party from which people are fleeing into much like butterflies flocking to nectar, the APC.

Ultimately, if Tinubu secures a second term and exits office in 2031, the critical issue will be:
Will Nigeria’s next generation of leaders emerge ready to prioritize the nation’s interests and elevate Nigeria globally?
Or will they simply repeat the same cycles?

Is anyone out there preparing true successors who will place Nigeria first?

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist.

Is the Doctrine of Separation of Powers Being Eroded?
Before I go into ‘the word for today’, I cannot but briefly comment on President John Mahama’s recent suspension of the Chief Justice of Ghana, Hon. Justice Gertrude Torkornoo (CJG) on allegations of misconduct. In Ghana, unlike Baron Montesquieu’s theory of Separation of Powers, the three arms of government are not co-equal. Article 57(2) of Ghana’s Constitution of 1992 (with Amendments through 1996) provides that the President takes precedence over all persons in Ghana, followed by the Vice President, the Speaker of the Parliament and then the Chief Justice. Article 146(6) of Ghana’s Constitution provides that, where there is a petition for the removal of the CJG, in consultation with the Council of State, the President will appoint a Panel of Inquiry to look into the allegations and recommend to the President whether the CJG should be removed. Also, when the petition has been referred to the Committee of Inquiry, in accordance with the advice of the Council of State, the Ghanaian President is empowered to suspend the CJG (see Article 146(10)(a) of Ghana’s Constitution).

In Nigeria, I have always maintained that we pretend that the three arms of government are co-equal, particularly as the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution) doesn’t provide for a hierarchy like Ghana; but, in reality, it appears that we have adopted the same hierarchical arrangement as the one provided for in Ghana’s Constitution. The Constitution doesn’t endow the Nigerian President with the same powers of discipline that the Ghanaian President has over the CJG, with regard to the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), even though President Buhari used a warped, unconstitutional process to remove Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen. See Nganjiwa v FRN (2017) LPELR-43391(CA) per Abimbola Osarugue Obaseki-Adejumo, JCA on the discipline of a judicial officer.

Though the procedure of discipline of the CJG raises questions of the independence of their Judiciary since the Judiciary is subject to the President, for now, however, constitutionally, President Mahama appears to be standing on ‘terra firma’, but only if the allegations against the CJG are not contrived, baseless or malicious, which some have argued that they are. The President’s powers of appointment of a good number of the members of the Council of State, 3 in consultation with Parliament and 11 by himself, aside from the President of the National House of Chiefs and elected members from the various regions, also gives him a considerable amount of power in the Council of State (see Article 89 of Ghana’s Constitution). Can this power be abused?

Last week, Milwaukee Circuit Court Judge, Hannah Dugan, was arrested in her court room by FBI Agents, for allegedly allowing a man who ICE Agents were seeking to deport, to evade them. She has been released, pending arraignment for felony charges of obstruction and concealing the proposed deportee. In this case, the FBI didn’t wait for any Judicial Conduct Commission, before taking action.

Sadly, it appears that what we are seeing these days, or what the Executive may be trying to achieve, is the subjugation of the Judiciary to it in order to be able to do as it pleases, without any check or balance. This will certainly impact negatively, on the independence of the Judiciary.

“Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon and the truth.” - Buddha

Criminals are Criminals, But….
I do agree that crime is crime, and criminals are criminals; and instead of quibbling about the colour, ethnicity or religion of criminals, bringing them to justice to reduce insecurity in Nigeria should be the prime focus (see Section 14(2)(b) of the Constitution and Tanko v State (2009) LPSLR-3136(SC) per Pius Olayiwola Aderemi, JSC). However, the study of Criminology and research has shown that following trends is helpful in solving crime, and has revealed certain patterns of crime between groups of people and types of crime. Therefore, a branch of Criminology, Trend Analysis, is devoted to identification of patterns in crimes, changes in them, causes of the crimes and development of strategies to prevent same. So, for instance, if people are usually robbed in traffic on Eko Bridge, particularly in the evenings when they are going home after work, Trend Analysts will observe that pattern of crime - maybe it occurs between 5pm and 7pm on weekdays. And, if many of victims of the robberies and eye witnesses observe that, a good number of the thieves are young men who are or pose as street hawkers selling different items, would it be profiling or simply telling the truth to warn people to be careful of street hawkers on Eko Bridge, as a good number of them are really robbers, some simply masquerading as street hawkers?

Definition of Profiling
What does Profiling mean? It means different things, in different contexts. In terms of Consumer Profiling, it is used to identify the target market for certain products, purchasing trends, preferences or weaknesses in products based on purchase, or to design products for target markets. For example, research has shown that girls between age 3 and maybe 6-7 like Barbie Dolls. In the past, it used to be girls up to age 10, but, it appears that the taste of older girls may have changed. So, if Mattel Inc, the maker of Barbie still wants to target older girls, it would have to make the Barbie Doll more attractive or innovative to pique their interest.

Criminal Profiling is used by law enforcement agencies in the Western World, to ‘catch’ criminals. For instance, in the case of a suspected serial killer, there would be crime scene analyses to discover if there may be similarities or ritualistic tendencies that are common to the different crime scenes where people have been killed, which the Police would use to determine if it is the same perpetrator(s) that may have murdered the different victims (linkage profiling). There is the examination of the victims’ backgrounds, to discover if there’s any common thread that runs through them, and what attraction/hatred the perpetrator(s) may have towards them. The method of killing is also considered - was it the same; was it exceptionally brutal, thereby showing some kind of deep-seated hatred for the victims? There’s behavioural/psychological profiling created from these and other factors, to try to develop a possible physical and mental profile of the perpetrator(s), in short, to try to narrow down the scope of who the perpetrator(s) could be.

The Fulani Issue
From the foregoing description, neither the definition nor the aims and objectives of criminal profiling appear to fit into the complaints of the Fulani elite in Nigeria, that the Fulanis are being profiled because Herdsmen are being called ‘Fulani Herdsmen’, and whether Herdsmen, Kidnappers or ‘Bandits’, some of the most violent attacks in various parts of the country, particularly in Benue, Plateau and the farming communities across the country are being attributed to Fulanis. This is not profiling; it is simply ethnic identification, which is what politicians have turned everything in Nigeria into, since the advent of the Fourth Republic - most things are compartmentalised into religion, ethnicity, gender. With President Buhari, it was the Northernisation of appointments; with President Tinubu, it was Muslim-Muslim ticket and now, the Yorubanisation of appointments. Why then should we expect it to be different when it comes to crime, particularly when certain people appear to be regularly fingered in certain crimes?

In many instances, victims and eye witnesses have identified Fulanis as the attackers, and it is up to law enforcement to investigate these crimes and bring the perpetrators to justice. Certainly, it cannot be correct to conclude that all the Herdsmen in Nigeria, or those who have partaken in these criminal acts are all of the Fulani ethnic group, nor can we rule out the fact that many of them may also be criminals of other ethnic groups or even foreigners, sometimes disguised as Herdsmen, as the narrative of Government claims. Does it really matter who they are, as long as they are caught and punished? Their ethnicity is only important, if it would help to locate and apprehend them. And, it would also be absurd, for anyone to conclude that because the Herdsmen or those of the Fulani ethnic group are the main suspects in numerous violent attacks, it means that all Fulanis are violent/criminals. But, be that as it may, it would also be foolhardy to gloss over or ignore a criminal pattern that may have been identified in a particular group of people, just because some others abhor the connection or linkage.

The other day, I saw a horrific video of criminals in Imo State who had terrorised a village and surrounding environs, and were responsible for kidnappings and killings in the area. It looked like a scene in a Nollywood movie. They were also alleged to be cannibals, as a pot of Egusi soup allegedly cooked with human flesh was found in their camp. They appeared to have infiltrated law enforcement and had such credible source(s) of accurate information, that they had been able to evade the authorities for quite a while until law enforcement changed their tactics and were able to capture them. They were not Fulanis.

The Fulani or Fula ethnic group are African nomads, who are known for herding livestock across the continent. This is a fact that any African history book, or a search engine like Google will confirm. Of course, they are not the only ones who herd livestock in Nigeria. However, there have been too many accusations against them, and the public has seen many videos over the years of Herdsmen trespassing onto people’s farms to graze their cattle on their crops. I’m certainly not saying that all the Herdsmen who have partaken in these criminal acts are Fulani, nor do I rule out the fact that many of them may also be criminals disguised as Herdsmen. But, with the uncountable attacks in Benue, Plateau and other farming communities in various parts of the country over the years, Herdsmen have been accused of being responsible for many of the heinous attacks in their bid to look for places to graze their livestock.

In 2016, as Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasiru El-Rufai, who stated that he is 87.5% Fulani, linked the killing of villagers in Southern Kaduna to a revenge/reprisal mission by Fulani Herdsmen from Niger, Mali, Chad etc (non-Nigerian Fulanis) who were caught up in the 2011 election violence in which many of them were killed, and their cattle lost. This is what Malam El-Eufai had to say in a Channels TV interview: “Cattle rustling and banditry is an essentially Fulani phenomenon. It is Fulanis, and we know where they were….Today, we have over 300 young Fulanis between age 18 and 30 in custody, for kidnapping, cattle rustling and robbery….This problem has multiple dimensions….To a large extent, we degraded cattle rustling; they moved on to kidnapping……”. Malam El-Rufai stated in the same interview that Fulani Herdsmen from other countries, migrate to Nigeria during certain seasons to graze their cattle through known grazing routes which may now no longer exist, as a result of urbanisation or farms now located along those routes. The question is, why should Nigeria be responsible for grazing routes for Malian or Guinean Herdsmen, particularly if it is detrimental to Nigerian Farmers? Shouldn’t their own governments, take up their responsibility?

In 2015, Chief Olu Falae was kidnapped on his farm in Ondo State by 6 or 7 Fulani Herdsmen, who were eventually caught, tried, convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment by an Ondo State High Court. Was Chief Falae profiling, or were the Fulani Herdsmen not responsible for his ordeal? Subsequently, Fulani Herdsmen attacked Chief Falae’s farm again, and killed one of his staff. In State v Haruna Usman, the then Kogi State Chief Judge, found 15 year old Fulani Herdsboy (about 17 at the time of conviction) guilty of culpable homicide punishable with death contrary to Section 221 of the Penal Code, and ordered his detention subject to the Governor’s pleasure. Usman had stabbed one Happy David to death, for stopping him from grazing his cattle on David’s Father’s farm at Emiworo Village, Ajaokuta.

So, what exactly do the Fulani elite mean, when they say that they are being profiled? That the public is claiming that every member of the Fulani ethnic group should be labelled as a violent criminal, or suspected to be one? I certainly do not think anyone can be saying so; and, if they are, it would be ludicrous. Should Muslims also say that they are being profiled as terrorists, because the very unIslamic Boko Haram terrorists claim to be Muslims? A friend of mine mentioned to me that there was an EFCC advertisement about fraud and 419 on television, that only featured Igbos and Yorubas. Does that mean that Igbos and Yorubas are being profiled as fraudsters, and Northerners or other ethnic groups do not commit fraud or 419? No. But, it may mean that Igbos and Yorubas may be more involved in that particular crime.

If victims and eye witnesses continue pointing fingers at Fulanis as their attackers, or victims of ‘419’ scams point to Igbos, Bendelites or Yorubas as the people that scammed them, should their observations just be ignored because their statements offend the sensibilities of others who share the same ethnic identity? Are their feelings or sensitivities, more important than the security and welfare of the thousands of Nigerians who are not only being killed, maimed and raped regularly, but driven from their farms and homes into IDP Camps? I do agree that people should not be stereotyped based on ethnicity, race etc, as this could lead to bias and discrimination (see Section 42(1)(a) of the Constitution and Lafia Local Govt v Govt, Nasarawa State & Ors (2012) LPELR-20602(SC) per Olufunlola Oyelola Adekeye, JSC), but, ignoring alleged criminal patterns instead of taking them seriously, would be detrimental to curbing whatever type of crime that requires attention.

When people say majority of the Nigerian drug traffickers caught/executed in Saudi Arabia are Yoruba, does this mean that all Yorubas who go to Saudi Arabia or all Yorubas are drug traffickers, or is it simply a fact supported by reliable statistics that they are the ones responsible for this particular crime? When they say majority of the ladies trafficked to Italy as sex workers are from the defunct Bendel State, is this borne out of reliable research and data, or is it that people just hate ladies from Bendel State and enjoy disparaging them for no reason?

Conclusion
We must move away from fruitless endeavours such as being economical with the truth, politicisation of criminality, over-dramatisation, ethnicity and this kind of general unproductive behaviour, and face this issue of insecurity squarely. For me, if the killers, kidnappers, rapists of Nigerians are from Ibadan like me, please, name them, shame them, but most importantly, apprehend them and punish them to the fullest extent of the law and curb their heinous activities. If they were called Fulani Geniuses or Yoruba Billionaires, would people complain about profiling?