OTHERS' VIEWS

OTHERS' VIEWS

SUNDAY 1-DEC

 

Hearn confirms Joshua’s 2025 return date
https://reubenabati.com.ng/sports/hearn-confirms-joshua-s-2025-return-date

Why Nigeria Needs Tax Reform – Oyedele
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/why-nigeria-needs-tax-reform-oyedele

Okpebholo, APC Jittery Over Exposure Of Systemic Rigging In Edo, Lies To Cover Fraud – Obaseki
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/okpebholo-apc-jittery-over-exposure-of-systemic-rigging-in-edo-lies-to-cover-fraud-obaseki

CBN tells Nigerians to report cash withdrawal issues from December 1, banks to face penalties
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/cbn-tells-nigerians-to-report-cash-withdrawal-issues-from-december-1-banks-to-face-penalties

Local Government Autonomy….Concerns Mount Over Non-execution Of Supreme Court Ruling
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/local-government-autonomy-concerns-mount-over-non-execution-of-supreme-court-ruling

Tinubu Tax: North’s anger grows as youths attack Deputy Senate President
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/tinubu-tax-north-s-anger-grows-as-youths-attack-deputy-senate-president

OAuGF report reveals huge financial infractions in NNPCL, NUPRC, NMDPRA
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/oaugf-report-reveals-huge-financial-infractions-in-nnpcl-nuprc-nmdpra

Rivers: N27bn IGR behind Fubara, Wike rift, INEC now APC member – Adeyanju
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/rivers-n27bn-igr-behind-fubara-wike-rift-inec-now-apc-member-adeyanju

‘I Am Against Tax Reform Bills, It Gives Some States More Advantage’ – Ningi
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/i-am-against-tax-reform-bills-it-gives-some-states-more-advantage-ningi

[STATE HOUSE PRESS RELEASE] President Tinubu Congratulates New NUJ President And Executive Team
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/state-house-press-release-president-tinubu-congratulates-new-nuj-president-and-executive-team

[PRESS RELEASE] President Tinubu Approves Funds for UNESCO Media and Information Literacy Institute in Nigeria
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/press-release-president-tinubu-approves-funds-for-unesco-media-and-information-literacy-institute-in-nigeria

Trump threatens 100% tariff on BRICS countries over currency plans
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/trump-threatens-100-tariff-on-brics-countries-over-currency-plans

‘From Secular To Sacred’ - Filmmaker, Mike Bamiloye Reflects On Transformation To Gospel Drama
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/from-secular-to-sacred-filmmaker-mike-bamiloye-reflects-on-transformation-to-gospel-drama

Darey Art Alade and wife Desola mark 18th wedding anniversary
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/dare-art-alade-s-wife-deola-celebrate-18th-wedding-anniversary

Sokoto NLC Suspends Planned Strike Over ₦70,000 Minimum Wage
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/sokoto-nlc-suspends-planned-strike-over-70-000-minimum-wage

Nigeria needs collaborative leaders for national progress - Peter Obi
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/nigeria-needs-collaborative-leaders-for-national-progress-peter-obi

How Tinubu’s fiery critics became spokespersons, loyalists
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/how-tinubu-s-fiery-critics-became-spokespersons-loyalists

2027: Atiku, Obi deny joint presidential bid after reunion
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/2027-atiku-obi-deny-joint-presidential-bid-after-reunion

Tax Reform Bill: Atiku Calls For Transparency, Inclusivity In Debate
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/tax-reform-bill-atiku-calls-for-transparency-inclusivity-in-debate

 

First, a caveat is in order. The complete budget that the Federal Government (FG) is proposing for 2025 is not yet in the public domain, which means a full appraisal cannot be done yet. For now, we have just two things. One, an outstanding and record-breaking figure of N47.9 trillion, announced as the sum that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved on Thursday for the proposed federal budget for next year. Two, a three-year budget framework and strategy paper—the 2025 to 2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)/ Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP)—which was approved by FEC on Thursday and published on the website of the Budget Office of the Federation on Friday.

Though it provides a fair indication of what is to come, the MTEF/FSP is not as detailed as a budget proposal. Also, the MTEF has to be approved by the National Assembly before the proposed budget can be presented by the president to legislators for consideration. Between the transmission and the approval of the MTEF and the presentation of the proposed budget, many things can change, and indeed certain things do change. So, nothing is cast in stone yet. However, there is enough in the 70-page document to give us some idea about how the mind of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration is working in terms of resource mobilisation and allocation in the next three years. The document also provides a window into budget performance for the whole of 2023 and for the first eight months of 2024. We thus have some reasonable materials that can be used to examine the immediate past and peep into the immediate future.

The MTEF/FSP contains more details than the headline figures that have been splashed in the media on the yet-to-be–unveiled proposed budget. I will share some of these additional details before offering my initial thoughts on the proposed budget and related issues. The document shows that FG intends to allocate the record N47.9 trillion expenditure in this order: N4.26 trillion to statutory transfers (including to the three development commissions recently created for the North West, the South East, and the South West); N13.61 trillion for capital expenditure; N14.21 trillion for non-debt recurrent expenditure; and N15.81 trillion for debt service. FG hopes to fund the budget by raising N34.82 trillion in revenue (N19.60 trillion as oil revenue and N15.22 trillion as non-oil revenue). And it hopes to bridge the N13.08 trillion gap between proposed expenditure and projected revenue through new borrowings of N9.22 trillion, multilateral loans of N3.55 trillion and privatisation proceeds of N312.33 billion.

I am sure some of the issues are jumping out at you already. But we should not get ahead of ourselves. In this preliminary intervention, I intend to make three broad points, drawing on what we can glean from the MTEF/FSP about the performance of previous budgets for the 20 months between January 2023 and August 2024 and what can pass for the visible outlines of the proposed budget for 2025.

The Obsession with Voodoo Projections Continues

Over time, we have developed a penchant for making wild revenue projections. We try to create a form of optical illusion, attempting to mask or minimise our fiscal challenges, and thereby reducing the hallowed activity of budget-making to a farce. But the joke is on us. This is a self-deceit with serious consequences. Because we enjoy lying to ourselves, projected revenues always end up falling short, while expenditure keeps soaring. The ensuring deficits not only exceed allowable limits but have to be plugged with more borrowing, including through unbudgeted, non-transparent and sometimes illegal overdrafts from the central bank.

Let’s be clear upfront: there is nothing wrong with proposing a N48 trillion budget if we can fund it. Given our size and needs, we probably can use double or triple that amount. But budget-making is not wishful thinking. For a start, revenue projections have to be realistic. There is nothing in our recent history to suggest that faithfully implementing a N48 trillion budget is faintly realistic. The approved revenue for the 2024 budget was N25.88 trillion but FG intends to raise N34.82 trillion in 2025. That is a 34.54% increase in revenue in one year. FG is not on track to generating its approved revenue for the current year. According to the MTEF, the Federal Government generated only N12.74 trillion as revenue between January and August this year. If we assume a consistent rate, FG will rake in N19.11 trillion in 2024, which will represent a 26% revenue shortfall of approved revenue. There is N6.2 trillion windfall tax/exchange gain that may do the magic for 2024, but it was presented as a one-off, and as such cannot be the reason for shifting revenue projection from N25.88 trillion to N34.82 trillion between a year and the following one.

But this actually becomes more interesting when you look at the breakdown of the projected revenues. In 2025, FG dreams of raising N19.60 trillion or 56% of its revenues from the oil sector and N15.22 trillion or 43% of total revenues from non-oil sources. On a pro-rata basis, the 2024 oil revenue underperformed by 25%: actual revenue of N4.09 trillion for eight months against pro-rated budget of N5.45 trillion. The total oil revenue expected in the 2024 budget is N8.18 trillion, a target which in all probability would be missed by at least a quarter. If FGN’s records show that oil revenue fell short in the current year, where then is the confidence to project a 140% increase in oil revenue next year gushing out from? Non-oil revenue has given the FG more joy in recent times, consistently outperforming oil revenue since 2020. In 2023, non-oil revenue surpassed budgeted amount by 34% and in the first eight months of 2024, it exceeded the pro-rated budget by 60%. It would have been understandable if the very rosy tint had been tilted towards non-oil revenues.

The curious bigging up of the contribution of the oil sector to government revenues shows up in two other areas. The MTEF projects that N51.87 trillion will accrue to the Main Pool of the Federation Account in 2025. Out of this, N40.42 trillion is projected as Net Oil Revenue (after costs, deductions and derivation). Meanwhile, N16.89 trillion was approved as the net oil revenue for the Federation in 2024, meaning that the net oil revenue for 2025 is expected to increase by 139% over the 2024 figure. There must be something those who made the projection know that is obscured from the rest of us.

The second possible driver of this strange confidence is that Nigeria will produce 2.06 million barrels of oil per day in 2025. This is a good aspiration to have. However, it looks quite dreamy given where we are. Oil production cannot be simply turn on like a light switch. Even if oil theft is completely eliminated, it will take more time to get back up to 2mbpd. But assuming that it is possible, those assuming the additional revenues from the extra barrels may be missing a few points: the fact that JV assets have been transferred to the national oil company in return for dividends on its profit; the thousands of barrels that have been pledged against different loans; and the fact that the private oil companies actually get more share of total oil produced because of the shift in the structure of oil production in Nigeria. In any case, actual oil output has consistently lagged benchmark oil output since 2013, a point well illustrated by Figure 5.2 on page 24 of the MTEF/FSP. Another interesting projection is that inflation which rose to 33.88% in October 2024 will drop to 15.75% in 2025. We need to give a better impression than we are just plugging in numbers that catch our fancy.

The Vicious Cycle of Debt and Debt Service

The debt noose keeps tightening and there appears to be no spirited effort to throw off what has become a millstone around our neck. It is as if we have made peace with our recent lot or that we think we can simply borrow our way out of our fiscal hole. In 2025, FG plans to borrow N12.77 trillion as part of its deficit financing plan: N3.55 trillion in multilateral loans and N9.22 trillion in new borrowings (made up of N7.4 trillion in domestic loans and N1.8 trillion in foreign loans). If we go ahead with the loans, that’s extra layer of debt on the total public debt stock of N134.3 trillion (as at June 2024). And by the way, one of the items approved by FEC on Thursday was another loan of $2.2 billion to finance the 2024 budget that should end in a few weeks. The convenient argument that our debt-to-GDP ratio is still manageable is losing its shine, as our current public debt is more than half our projected nominal GDP of N236.3 trillion for 2024. This is above our self-imposed limit of 40% as debt-GDP ratio.

Besides, the debt-to-GDP metric is of limited utility to a country like ours. Public debts are not paid or serviced with GDP but with government revenues. The quantum of resources devoted to paying and servicing debts has implications for the ability of the government to continue to function and its capacity to meet the developmental needs of the populace. In 2025, a princely sum of N15.81 trillion or about a third of the proposed expenditure of N47.9 trillion is apportioned to debt service alone. In fact, debt service is the biggest line item in the proposed budget for 2025. Said another way: we are budgeting to spend more on servicing debt than on any other group of items in 2025. Debt service is 116% of capital expenditure (N13.61 trillion), amounts to 193% of personnel expenses (N8.19 trillion), and equals 371% of statutory transfers (N4.26 trillion). The proposed debt service for 2025 is also 45% of projected revenue of N34.82 trillion (and it is worth bearing in mind that revenue is likely to underperform while debt service may actually be higher than projected and so the actual percentage will probably be higher).

This last point bears emphasising. In 2023, N8.56 trillion was spent on debt service though the budgeted amount was N6.56 trillion, most likely because of the depreciation of the Naira. Following the same trajectory, sum of N5.51 trillion should have been incurred on debt service between January and August 2024 but N7.41 trillion, or 34% higher than the pro-rated amount, was expended within that period. We are on track to surpassing the N8.27 trillion budgeted for debt service for the whole year (this is apart from N223 billion meant for sinking fund which was not provided for in the first eight months of the year). The point is that the more we borrow, the more resources we will need to devote to paying the principal and the interest in subsequent years. And so, the vicious cycle continues. While a strategy to continue to borrow and spend may appear attractive in the short term, it amounts to hobbling the next generation with a legacy of debts.

Fiscal Expansionism Not Inevitable 

While some citizens and analysts have started querying the rosy assumptions behind the N47.9 trillion budget, some other Nigerians within and outside government will defend the budget. One of the arguments that will be made is that the record amount is just $28.18 billion. When compared with our previous budgets or the budgets of our peers with fewer population, that amount doesn’t look or sound so outrageous. This is fair point. But N47.9 trillion would not have come to $28.2 billion without the floating of the Naira (introduced by the current administration which is also benefitting from it through exchange gain, now a major item at FAAC). Also, concentrating on what the proposed amount exchanges for in dollars might be good for the sake of comparison but it ignores the key points about whether the assumptions are realistic or not, about whether we can fund the budget or not, and about how such a big budget comes with its own baggage.

The argument about the need to accommodate the newly agreed minimum wage and boost infrastructure to drive overall development is more convincing. But the data in the proposed budget does not support 37% increase in budgeted expenditure from one year to another. The MTEF shows that personnel budget is to rise from N5.39 trillion in 2024 to N8.19 trillion in 2025, an increase of N2.8 trillion or 52%. This is presumably to take care of the new minimum wage and other consequential adjustments. But that extra N2.8 trillion for personnel cannot be the reason for the entire N12.84 trillion added to the 2024 budget. Though the document makes a song and dance about increased infrastructure spending, the capital budget (exclusive of transfers) actually reduced slightly from N13.77 trillion in 2024 to N13.61 trillion in 2025. So, it is hard to justify adding so much to the 2024 budget, which itself is unlikely to be fully implemented.

There is a place for ambitious and expansionary budget (especially when the economy is depressed and the country can easily find the money to reflate the economy). But Nigeria is not in that good place. We are battling headline inflation close to 34% and food inflation of about 40%. We are at a place where we need to free Nigerians from suffocating inflation and where we desperately need to keep working towards, not away from, fiscal consolidation. We need to significantly reduce deficit (not just aiming for the 3% of deficit-to-GDP limit mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007) and reduce debts (not binge on debts or be hiding behind some vacuous lingo about sustainable debt).

There are some commendable efforts around blocking leakages and raising more revenues and some of them are yielding decent results already. We should do more of these. We need more fiscal discipline and, more importantly, we need stronger collaboration and coherence between the fiscal and the monetary sides of the economy. One side cannot be busy tightening while the other is needlessly expansionary. Such dissonance is counter-productive, and can only delay the needed rebound.

Like a pack of biscuits on the shelf beyond the expiry date, the country called Nigeria already expired in 2014 – 10 years ago! It therefore ought to be baked afresh.

That was the view of the convener of the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF) and a former vice-chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, Prof. Ango Abdullahi at a national conference on a home-grown model of the parliamentary system organised by the Home-Grown Parliamentary System Support Group (PSSG) in Abuja. PSSG is a group of 83 members of the House of Representatives, sponsoring three bills seeking the alteration of the 1999 Constitution to transition from the current presidential to a parliamentary system at all tiers of government.

Antecedents

Abdullahi wasn’t saying anything new. Prominent historian Prof. Banji Akintoye, worldwide leader of Yoruba Global Movement, ‘Ilana Omo Oodua’, who also doubles as chairman of the Nigerian Indigenous. Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS) is on record as describing the present political arrangement in Nigeria as fraudulent and campaigning for the peaceful secession of the Yoruba from Nigeria. He has formalised his campaign by submitting a petition to the United Nations (UN).

Akintoye even made a solemn declaration after his group’s 2020 outing: “For the avoidance of doubt, the NINAS proclamation of constitutional dispute on December 16, 2020, terminated the life of the fraudulent 1999 Constitution of Nigeria and therefore restored our sovereignty that was confiscated by that constitution. What we are doing today is to outline the processes and modality for the necessary and orderly transition to our full self-determination and sovereignty in the World. Therefore we hereby call on the peoples of our alliance territory to rise to the challenge of shaking off the shackles and manacles hitherto imposed on them by the defunct 1999 constitution.”

 

As if that was not “treasonous” enough, last month, a prominent Yoruba rights agitator, Sunday Adeyemo, alias Sunday Igboho, submitted another petition at 10 Downing Street, London, calling for international recognition of the Yoruba people’s quest for self-determination.

On the home front, Chief Edwin Clark and Chief Ayo Adebanjo have, for years, campaigned for the ditching of the 1999 Constitution which they describe as a big swindle imposed on Nigerians by the retreating military government in 1999. Another member of the nonagenarian club, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, former secretary-general of the Commonwealth, has been making strident calls for the renegotiation of a new constitution in a peaceful way before the wave of separatist agitations become a storm. He particularly describes the presidential system as unsuited to the temperament and experience of Nigerians.

Nnamdi Kanu’s agitation for the actualisation of the Republic of Biafra for the Igbo people of the present day southeast geopolitical zone through his organisation, Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB), is well known.

Changing Tide

In government circles, particularly in Abuja, It used to be anathema to mention anything about a renegotiation of the terms of the Nigerian union in certain quarters without exposing oneself to the possible eventuality of losing a tooth or two. It is gratifying that the issue of a total overhaul of the apparatus of the Nigerian union is an idea whose time has come.

The current economic hardship has contributed its quota in making us take a hard look at ourselves and wonder if we couldn’t have made a better use of the independence we won from the British in 1960.

But here we are. In intellectual discourse, there is no right time or wrong time. Certain intervening variables may have impinged on the ability of certain interlocutors to perceive empirical reality from the same prism as their fellow citizens. With time, however, as governments come and governments go, it has become clear that we are only doing the same things the same old way and populating the land with mendicants who soon transmogrify into violent civilian armies waylaying us at the portals of our mansions.

It appears that a consensus has been reached that, no matter what happens, it is advisable to renegotiate the terms of our union as a nation, or go our separate ways in peace so that we can at least remain as friendly neighbours.

Love him or loathe him, the voice of the 86-year-old Prof Abdullahi is a very noteworthy one in Nigeria. The younger generation have him to thank for taking that trip down memory lane to remind us all that we have been living a lie.

Memory Lane

“Nigeria was born in 1914”, Abdullahi recalled. “It was a product of an Edict by the colonial officials that were largely military, in consultation with a few of our elders, about five or six of them – The Sultan of that period, the Shehu of Borno of that period, the Alaafin of Oyo of that period, the Obong of Calabar of that period, and other names, I have forgotten.

“The North was conquered in 1903. So, by 1914 the colonial masters from Britain wanted to solidify their gains so that they could more easily exploit the resources of the colony. That is how they sat down and decided that they would amalgamate the Lagos Colony and the South and the North into one country.

“The wife of Lord Frederick Luggard, the Governor General at that time, gave us the name Nigeria, a name derived from the “Niger Area”. In the Edict, it was very clear that we were being encouraged from various backgrounds to come together and build a country called Nigeria. And our leaders at that time agreed that we would try. But we were advised in the details of the Edict, that we should be monitoring progress over the years but the life of the Edict was 100 years.

“This meant that the Edict expired in 2014, which is 100 years after its formation. The question is that we are now in 2024. This kind of dialogue reminds us that we have a history that started in 1914. In the conclusion of that edict, it said that if we failed to build a country that we can call our own and be proud of, by the expiration of that period the various components that were in that amalgamation could go their separate ways.

“Go and check; that is what you will find. The edict tells us to either do what is right or if we can’t do what is right we can decide to go our separate ways,” declared Prof. Abdullahi.

Apparently dissatisfied with the pace of development in Nigeria since independence in 1960, the former vice-chancellor lamented that 64 years after, Nigeria can only boast of 3,000 megawatts of electricity for a population of over 200 million people. He said that Nigeria had failed to live up to the expectation of its founding fathers.

New Constitution?

Netizens have since taken over the debate. The ubiquitous commentators of the intemperate hue who always want to reduce every commentary on Nigeria to a tribal warfare, seem to have spared the elderly professor their usual flack. Abdullahi’s candid historical excursion appears to have given them some food for thought. However, there was a coterie of doubters who wondered why it had taken Prof Abdullahi so long to come to the party. “Is he taking this position because the presidency is now occupied by a southerner?” they ask.

In the coming days and months, I see the jaw-jaw among political leaders revving up tempo to such an extent that the 2027 elections may be conducted under a new constitution for the sake of Nigeria’s survival as one entity. I think the present generation of politicians would rather do that than bury Nigeria with the battlecry, “To your trenches, O Tribesmen!”

Politics is in many ways like religion. It thrives on a foolish expectation of paradise perennially approaching but forever elusive.  Take away the promise and prospect of eventual heaven and paradise and all religion falls flat. You dare not tell a devotee that heaven may not come or that the promised virgins may not be delivered as promised!

Politicians on their part are the eternal purveyors  of  an earthly  paradise. The promised land of every political manifesto is  a sort of fulfilled state, an ideal of the nation state only imagined by John Jacques Rousseau, Thomas Hobbes and John Locke. It is  a place where all the yearnings, desires wishes and needs of the ideal citizenry are met by an ever compassionate state ruled by good men and women. That is why every political realm quickly finds a slogan for its own definition of heaven on earth. Every active party man or woman is somehow an apostle of a new faith carrying the pocket book of a new theology, ready to recite you the catechism of the new Jerusalem.

The arrival time of a political paradise used to be long.  It is now shorter because the electorate have become inpatient in a digital sense. People now want the fulfillment of political promises in real time which means almost instantly. Forget the election cycle. Forget the generational vision and legacy crap. Bring us the goodies now now! Palliative rice and Indomie Noodles for all now. Helicopter cash transfers for millions right away. Money for one good pot of soup for today in exchange for our votes today. Keep your highways and flyovers for later. Give us ‘stomach infrastructure’ now now!.  

Even religious paradise has shortened its delivery and expectation time. Paradise is no longer only for the patient. Now, new generation pastors and transactional gospellers fast track things somehow. Prosperity and abundance of wealth must come now now! The microwave has entered the world of miracles and divine expectations. YouTube gathers the flock in one place at the push of a button on the keyboard and spreads the gospel worldwide while those at the receiving end just click and collect in millions of dollars.  Instant salvation. Immediate paradise and gratification delivered via your bank account!

In today’s Nigeria, President Tinubu and his APC friends are the merchants of the new wonder product called the “Renewed Hope Agenda”. It is the hope of an abundance of life and goodness to be delivered by the Tinubu government in the fullness of its time. We are told that the “Renewed Hope” Franchise belongs to the APC as a party. But the party manifesto makes no mention of this ‘renewed hope’ agenda. We are not told what it is. No one has yet unwrapped the package. Party people and regime friends just talk glibly about it. At other times, the ‘renewed hope’ is merely suggested in shy chants when the President is likely to be present. At such occasions, ‘renewed hope’ agenda spontaneously graduates into a song directed at the President: “On your mandate we shall stand…!” Once the President departs the venue, the chant is over, the choir dissolves and disperses into the anonymity of the rented crowd of political jobbers .

When you ask the lead choristers the content of the ‘renewed hope’ they just sang about, you are left empty-handed. No one seems to know what it is all about but everyone is expected to expect it! You ask endlessly from the marketers of the new gospel to be told what this ‘renewed hope’ is all about. There is no document that describes it or itemizes what we as an electorate should expect from this ‘renewed hope’ thing. We are just expected to believe and trudge along. A theology without a creed. Faith in things unseen and unknown!

Every respectable gospel builds an attractive paradise for its followers to aspire to: a garden of respite from our earthly toils, a place where there is no more sorrow, toil or even death. Every common person shall summon enough courage to look death in the face and ask: “Death, where is thy sting?” Believers  shall play and enjoy endlessly. Political utopias are similarly constructed as a combination of imagination and the wishful thinking of hapless voters. Since we are supposed to look forward to the arrival of “renewed hope” as a political utopia and kingdom, one should expect to learn its outlines. How many poor housing units will be delivered per state by ‘renewed hope’? How many new classrooms? How many new health centres? How many free bus rides to and from work? Will there be free food at feeding centres?  Will public schools be free of charge for the poor? Will bandits disappear from our highways? Will there be special prisons for kidnappers? Just what goodness will descend on us all courtesy of the “Renewed Hope Agenda?” Mr. “Renewed Hope”,  when shall be taste the next good soup?

In the absence of any of these concrete ‘better life’ prospects, to just promise us ‘renewed hope’ as a source of universal sweetness is somewhat suspicious and even fraudulent. Hope is not a place of succor. Hope is not a policy. It is not measurable Hope is not a destination of goodness nor is it a policy. Hope is a never land, an empty longing for things unseen and untouchable. Hope is a dream, a promise, a delusion of emptiness to feed the minds of the ignorant and foolish mob.

Every serious APC follower is now a “Renewed Hope Agenda” disciple and marketer..  The prime pontiffs are very loquacious, enviable and considerably wealthy citizens placed in strategic gate -keeper locations in the present order.  Mr. Godswill Akpabio is Senate President with one of the longest convoys around. Mr. Nyesom Wike is Minister of the Federal Capital Territory with a fleet of demolition bulldozers at his beck and call. Mr. Dave Umahi is Minister of Works with Alaskan highway projects that literally traverse the entire length of the country. My former friend Dele Alake has been catapulted from near destitute joblessness to Minister of Solid Minerals negotiating mining rights with Chinese mineral thieves and bandits all over the country. A man who looks permanently surprised and always clad in oversize suits in Minister of Finance.  In turn, Mr. Nuhu Ribadu is National Security Adviser who seems lately to be jostling for the job of minister of information by constantly singing the praise of the president at every stop. He was recently quoted as advocating national prayers to help chase away squads of bandits tormenting him and his men in waves of insecurity.

The better informed apostles of “Renewed Hope” have enough common sense to direct you to the policies of the Tinubu administration. We are told that the hardship spinoffs of the present policies are the vehicles of the “Renewed Hope Agenda”. The higher fuel prices, the astronomical exchange rates, the endless multiple taxes, the bandits and killers at every road junction and the high costs of basic food and sustenance items are meant to prepare us for life in the land of renewed hope. The few Nigerians who survive these hard times will be the ‘strong breed’ that will inhabit the place of ‘renewed hop’.

There may even be a religious angle to it all. Maybe after this period of famine and suffering shall follow a season of endless plenty! By a flip of divine intervention, all these agonies and suffering shall somehow end in praise. This may be the reason why recently, there was a rumoured plan to hold a nationwide prayer festival for divine intervention to alleviate the suffering in the land and turn it all into plenty,  abundance and praise.

No one can say convincingly that the president does not love Nigeria. He is working on the job he applied for. While we cannot deny the prevalence of hardship all over the land, there is also a need to acknowledge that this government has been quite busy doing the ordinary things that governments in these parts do.

Meetings are being held in Abuja every day on virtually every subject under the sun. The President has been setting up committees of all hues to seek for solutions to our economic problems as they rear their heads.  The big men and women of officialdom are perennially on the move in and around the country attending to busy schedules, arriving in very large shiny black SUVs carrying the same files that their predecessors clutched before they were recently sacked. The communiqués summarizing the results of the meetings are sometimes issued before the meetings take place!

Undeniably, some things have been achieved under this ‘ “Renewed Hope Agenda’ regime. We have reverted to the 1960 national anthem from the new one. We even got the entire National Assembly to convert into a choir that learnt and sang the old “new” anthem with microwave speed. The president has acquired a fresh ‘tokunbo’ luxury jet for his many trips abroad. In less than 18 months into his tenure, President Tinubu has thrown  out half a dozen of his lack lustre ministers and replaced them with another seven anonymous and even invisible ones. Hardly any day passes without the presidency announcing fresh high profile appointments by the president predictably from mostly one corner of the country.

In less than 18 months in office, this president has clocked more air miles than his predecessors even in the absence of a definite foreign policy direction.

On matters of hardship, the government has made noises in the direction of alleviating high food prices. Bags of rice and other grains have been ferried around the country to alleviate hunger but the masses still deny that they saw any rice. A few ministers and government big people have since set up rice warehouses and shops which are now doing lucrative business.

In some rice and palliative distribution centres, those who went out to scramble for rice and noodles to feed their families have ended up returning in body bags. The lucky ones returned with broken skulls from the scramble only to be told by the First Aid hospitals that basic medications are “out of stock”. Wise people no longer troop out to scramble for palliative rice or cash from big men. Please avoid dangerous rice and bad cash!

A plan to import food items at reduced tariffs is expected to begin yielding fruits soon. But the exchange rate of the Naira to the dollar to pay for the food import has worsened since the policy was announced. Worse still, the Central Bank has since jacked up interest rates so high that those who borrowed money to import low duty food items to fight hunger are themselves held to ransom by the banks. As a result, the envisaged relief of the imported food will be wiped off by the exchange rate  and high interest rates.

In the interim, hapless and impoverished citizens are being constantly enjoined to await the coming of the Tinubu “Renewed Hope” kingdom.

In recent weeks, APC pundits and chieftains have been trumpeting that things are getting better. For them, the ‘renewed hope’ agenda has begun to yield fruits. Tinubu is now “performing” even in the absence of any supporting data. Tinubu is just happening in spite of worsening inflation, more depressing living costs and worsening insecurity.

While the chosen few of the APC high priesthood are wallowing in opulent excess, the chorus out on the streets in all parts of the nation is a desperate cry of anguish . People are asking when and how the nation can get out of the present excruciating hardship. “Renewed Hope Agenda” is fast turning into an anthem of paradise for a few chosen apostles and a dirge or requiem for the majority.  Yet the dominant discourse and question out on the streets  is an open question:  when will the economy improve?

In politics, the approach of good times is signaled by the approach of the next election. As we inch towards 2027, there is bound to be an increase in the number of APC party faithful chanting the success of Tinubu’s policies. A great deal of these chants are based on political impulse rather than verifiable indicators in reality. Tinubu came to power with petrol pump price at less than N200. Renewed Hope agenda has hiked it to over N1,000. The Naira was exchanging for less than N500 to the dollar when Tinubu was sworn in last May. It is now hovering at over N1,700. Same degree of astronomical increases  apply to electricity tariff, the cost of every food item, basic drugs, cost of ground transportation, domestic and international  air fares.

Something new crept in from the recent campaigns of the American presidential election. Let us call it the Optimism Index. Simply put, it measures the degree to which the citizenry are optimistic that the nation is going in the right direction.  Throughout the length and breadth of the country, you hardly encounter any one who is ready to risk asserting that any aspect of life in today’s Nigeria is going in the right direction. The readiest response of people to government is a torrent of curses and abuses. It has become so bad that important traditional rulers ands religious leaders have appealed to citizens to stop cursing the nation’s leaders. The Ooni of Ife a fortnight ago appealed to citizens to desist from cursing our leaders. The Sultan of Sokoto followed the same pattern of appeal. Some religious leaders have sent out the same appeal.

We cannot content ourselves with either a sea of curses and abuses or a baseless insistence on progress with ‘renewed hope agenda’. Those interested in knowing when the economy will improve need to take a closer look at what has befallen us in just a little over a year of this ‘renewed hope’ administration. In principle, a reform policy is all well and good. No serious country can go on the way we have been. You could not sustain an economy on subsidies in most important sectors. But at the same time, no sensible government can afford to take off all of subsidies in so many diverse areas of essential goods and services simultaneously. To take off all subsidies at once and increase taxes, rates, tariffs  and charges on everything essential at once is like declaring a war on all the people. If they cannot protest and revolt, they will live a life of perennial curses on those who rule them.

I do not belong among those who insist that the “Renewed Hope Agenda” cannot and will not yid recovery and goodness. But our present  hardship did not come as a result of divine punishment. It is man made. It is the result of a reckless combination of thoughtless reflexes mistaken for policies. Any group of people who casually inflict this untidy cocktail of harsh measures on the same people within such a short space of time in the name of governance need to have their identity and sanity double checked.

 

Maybe, INEC should incorporate comprehensive mental health screening as part of the qualification for electoral offices.

The firing of Engr. Meyen Etukudo, the chief executive of Akwa Ibom State-owned electricity generating company, Ibom Power, by the state government last week caught many people unawares and generated quite a buzz in the industry. The sack order was contained in a press statement issued by the Secretary to the State Government, Mr. Enobong Uwah, Thursday night. It came shortly after Etukudo had issued a statement explaining that the power plant had shut down because its gas supplier, Savannah Energy, had discontinued supply of gas due to dispute over payments. The state was therefore thrown into darkness which has continued for three days now. ‘’This loss of gas supply coincided with a reported fault on the 132 KV Itu-Aba Transmission Line which transports power from the national grid in and out of the state, hence the state-wide outage’’, Etukudo stated, and concluded that Savannah Energy ‘’has remained adamant’’ during the discussions.

But Savannah Energy has publicly repudiated him, insisting in a public statement that the ‘’the power cut in Akwa Ibom State is entirely due to the reported fault in the 132 KVA Aba-Itu Transmission Line, which, unfortunately is preventing power from being transmitted into the state’’. A senior official of Savannah Energy told me that although gas supply to Ibom Power was discontinued momentarily for lack of payment, Savannah has since resumed supply, but the plants could not be re started because they are in a very bad shape. ‘’I think the former MD used Savannah as a smokescreen to cover the rots he left behind’’, added the official.

It is for this reason that the Board Chairman of Ibom Power, Engr Etido Inyang, tried unsuccessfully to dissuade Etukudo from issuing his statement because ‘’it didn’t reflect the true picture’’. But he too was adamant. Government officials therefore believe that the former CEO was just out to embarrass the governor; and because his standing before government was already weak; disengaging him was an easy decision. Meantime, the governor is so incensed that he may soon order a detailed financial audit into the affairs of the company and ‘’there’s a possibility that the EFCC may be called in given reports of corrupt practices the government has’’, according to an informed insider.

I have spoken to several people in government, Savannah Energy, Ibom Power Company (IPC) and the electricity industry and reviewed volumes of documents; I can confirm that Mr. Etukudo was sacked for a myriad of reasons, the power outage being the last straw. ‘’This is not just about the dispute between Savannah Energy and Ibom Power; he was let go for many reasons including gross act of insubordination to the government, incompetence and embarrassing decisions the management took in the years he was in office’’, a senior government official told me.

Etukudo joined IPC in 2016 with a Transmission background, but in all those years, there has not been an improvement in the performance of the company, according to its five-year audited financial statement. The government is also displeased at his management style. He refused to be answerable to the governor and his employers, Akwa Ibom Investment Corporation (AKICORP), which owns almost 100% of the company. ‘’Ibom Power has not rendered reports of stewardship to AKICORP and is yet to hold its first AGM. He has never briefed Gov. Umo Eno on the affairs of the company since he became governor’’, said a senior government official. The government is also dissatisfied with Etukudo for his inability to renegotiate the defective Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) which Ibom Power has with Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET). This defective PPA, officials claim, is one of the reasons Ibom Power’s bottom line has been in the red in the eight years Etukudo led the company.

Another source said the government was also embarrassed by Etukudo’s habit of giving frequent press interviews and issuing press statements as well as his frequent foreign trips without approval from the Governor. On each occasion he travelled out, he would hand over the Company to a contractor who repairs the plant, sidestepping his executives. Early this year, Etukudo gave an interview accusing the state government of giving more money to Ibom Air, while neglecting Ibom Power; and boasted that if he had such support from government, he would turn around Ibom Power. ‘’But how could government continue to sink money into a leaking hole? Comparing Ibom Power to Ibom Air is a cheap blackmail, because while Ibom Air is growing rapidly, servicing its debts on time and will soon break even, Ibom Power has been falling deeper and deeper into debts’’, quipped a Government House Permanent Secretary official. Under Etukdo, the company defaulted in repayment of restructured loans to lenders, particularly Afrexim, thus making it impossible for other State entities like Ibom Air to access credit from Afrexim.

The state government also blames the ousted CEO for frustrating every genuine effort by Accugas, a subsidiary of Savannah Energy, and AKICORP to renegotiate a Gas Sales Agreement that supports the current industry realities and turning down every genuine effort to have discussions on the way forward. ‘’He has never been an honest party in the government’s effort to reengineer the electricity market in the State, a step that is required to take advantage of the reforms in the energy sector in the country’’, said an industry insider.

Ibom Power Company Limited was incorporated on January 15, 2001 as the pioneer independent electricity generation company. It has an operational plant at Ikot Abasi, with three turbines and combined installed capacity of 191 MW. The plant has never operated at full capacity and is currently operating at less than 50% of the installed capacity. The company is owned 99.99% by AKICORP and 0.01% by Globeleq Ibom Holdings BV, a South African company. Ibom Power has been poorly managed over the years and most recently gross operational inefficiency and management incompetence have been identified as its major weaknesses. The three turbines have never at any time been functional, resulting in unplanned downtime and loss of revenue. The lack of quality inspection and assurance has resulted in significant damage to the plant.

The Company has been making losses since inception, resulting in negative Net worth, with comfort letter being issued to the External Auditors to avert qualification of its financial statements. The Five-Year Financial Indices show a N4.23 billion loss in 2022; N5 billion loss in 2021; N20 million loss in 2019 and N6.5 billion loss in 2018. The financial statement for 2023 is being audited. In addition, the company is indebted to Accugas to the tune of $12.6m and indebted to Afrexim to the tune of $7.81M. The Bank obtained judgment, requiring payment in 14 days with 8% interest per annum on any unpaid amount. Ibom Power has since defaulted. Ibom Power is also indebted to Access Bank to the tune of N420 million. It defaulted on the restructured repayment plan reached with the bank in 2017. Both Afrexim and Access Bank hold a joint charge on IPC power plants.

The string of losses over the years has threatened the going concern of the Company. Ibom Power’s current and total liabilities exceed its current and total assets by N51 billion. A significant portion of the Company’s liability, representing 56% of its total liabilities, is owed to AKICORP, the parent company. Each year AKICORP issues a comfort letter to the external auditors that it would not demand repayment and that it also guarantees the going concern of the Company, without which IPC is insolvent and bankrupt.

Against the backdrop of the gross operational inefficiency, managerial incompetence and bleak financial position of the company, the government this year commissioned Savannah Energy to carry out a plant audit, the first in time in its 23-year history. I understand that the audit report was very harsh on the management of the company. It noted that the Plant is not in good shape due to poor maintenance. Plant availability is now significantly less than 50%; no managerial competency for power generation operations, resulting in avoidable gaps; poor maintenance culture, inadequate safety policies and absence of basic HSE compliance. The report also noted that the fire cooling system is damaged, resulting in hazardous operational environment. Inefficient operations manifests in collecting gas for two turbines when it can only evacuate power from one turbine, even when Accugas advised that this was an inefficient use of gas. IPC does not have an industry-best-practice Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with NBET, the reason it has not taken advantage of better terms of purchase by NBET. The current PPA is not even legally binding on NBET, according to a company executive.

When I called Etukudo this Saturday morning, he refused to comment and directed me to the press statement he issued. ‘’You are a brilliant journalist; read the statement I issued and tell me what is wrong with it’’, he told me. But when I pressed further, he retorted, ‘’the governor has been commissioning projects; have you heard him mention power?’’ - Indirectly hinting that Ibom Power has not been a priority of the government. I pushed back: ‘’But I understand that the government had ordered an audit of the place this year; and is it not possible that the governor was planning to do something about Ibom Power; after all, government does not do everything in one year’’. ‘’I don’t want to talk again’’, he said and hung up. I was also going to ask him why the company has been making losses and many other questions.

Gov. Umo Eno refused elaborate discussions on this matter when I called him last night. ‘’We will turn around Ibom Power’’, he told me, adding, ‘’right now, we are busy on the 2025 budget and the funeral arrangements for my dear wife. I regret what has happened, but we shall turn around Ibom Power’’.

The government should begin the turnaround by hiring a competent and experienced CEO who should be given clear targets to implement the recommendations in the Plant Audit Report; reposition the company; forge ahead with the power market reforms to supply power to Akwa Ibom people and drive the company profitably in accordance with global best practice.

ETIM is a journalist and author

Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola - remember him? I would not have needed to ask this sort of “foolish question”, as it were, but for the fact that, in this our obodo NIgeria, yesterday’s men of power and influence soon become today’s inconsequentials, hardly noticed or remembered by anyone anymore!

Yesterday, they could make anyone an instant millionaire or billionaire or command the earth to swallow up anyone that steps on their toes. Today, they are a far cry from that, having climbed down from their Olympian heights or high horses. Their phones don’t ring incessantly as before. Nothing captures this better than a post I watched on social media of a man who described the difference between being a man of power and being an ordinary citizen!

As a man of power, he was booked first class to a speaking event; was chauffeur-driven from the airport to a five-star hotel; was met on arrival by a bevy of hotel attendants who ushered him into his exquisitely-furnished room. The next day, he was chauffeur-driven again to the engagement venue and had a front-row seat waiting for him. Without asking, he was offered coffee in a gold-plated cup.

UYears later when he had become an ordinary citizen and was invited to the same speaking event, he had to book his economy class ticket by himself; took a cab from the airport to a low profile hotel that he could afford; and checked himself into his sparsely furnished room. The next day, he had to find his way to the event venue and when he asked for a cup of coffee, he was signalled to a corner of the hall where he poured himself coffee in a styrofoam cup!

His verdict: the first-class treatment he received during his first outing was not for him but for the office he occupied at the time. His real worth was the styrofoam-cup treatment he got at his second coming!

I don’t know how many of those in positions of power understand this. It seems they only get wiser after they lose power. Who remembers Goodluck Ebele Jonathan today? His phone must have stopped ringing a long time ago. Even Muhammadu Buhari’s phone must have stopped ringing by now. It is not for fun that outgoing governments are described as lame ducks. Once people know that you are on your way out of power, their attention shifts to the in-coming men (and women) of power or the new sheriffs in town, as they are called.

The “reality show” begins right from the time people know that your days in power are numbered. The self-styled “evil genius” of an Army general and military president that Nigerians nicknamed the “Maradona” because of his political dribbling runs realised this inevitable turn of events towards the twilight of his ignoble reign so much so that he had to remind Nigerians that he was still in office and in power! When a man begins to remind his wife and children that he is still the head of the home, know that he has lost effective control and relevance!

I once went to visit a friend who was the Mushin branch manager of Trade Bank; marching ahead of me in his flowing “agbada” was this businessman, followed by his driver who was struggling with a big hamper that was his lot to carry as he tried to keep pace with his oga. Just before we got into the banking hall, we saw my friend taking another man round and introducing him to staff. The businessman asked someone what was going on and he was told that my friend had been transferred and a new manager was resuming in the branch the next day. He quickly signalled to his driver to return the hamper to the car!

But he was unfortunate: I squealed on him and my friend promptly scolded him. With a straight face he said: “That is business!” Apologetically, he returned the hamper but the message was clear. Your office is different from your person. When I was the Editor of PUNCH newspapers, my office got littered every festive period with all manner of hampers. It stopped “raining” when I was promoted even into a higher position but which was of less relevance to the needs of our business-minded and eye-service patrons!

So, Aregbesola - do you still remember him? Let’s start the introduction from the point where he started his meteoric rise into stardom, influence and power. He was a two-term (eight years) Commissioner for Works in Lagos State under Gov. Bola Ahmed Tinubu (1999-2007). From there, he was assisted by the same Tinubu to bag another two-term (eight years) as governor of Osun state (2010 - 2018). It is debatable whether or not Tinubu was instrumental to his appointment as Minister of Interior by President Muhammadu Buhari (August 2019 - May 2023). What is beyond dispute, however, is that Ogbeni, as he was fondly called, was one of the closest political associates of Tinubu until things fell apart between godson and godfather.

What readily comes to mind was the tussle between Aregbesola and his successor as governor of Osun State, Adegboyega Isiaka Oyetola, said to be Tinubu’s cousin. Incidentally, Oyetola was Aregbesola’s Chief of Staff. When politicians fight, they neither remember yesterday nor think of tomorrow. Tinubu soon got enmeshed in the crossfire between Aregbesola and Oyetola so much so that Aregbesola, whom many had thought would be Tinubu’s armour bearer as he campaigned to be the country’s numero uno, became his most truculent opponent.

In the words of William Shakespeare’s Antony (in the play, ‘Julius Caesar’), Aregbesola’s vitriols against Tinubu was “the unkindest cut of all”. Aregbesola’s turnaround surprised many. Here was a man so sold out to Tinubu that he once was quoted as saying that should Tinubu order him to die, all he would ask was the kind of death that would suit the Jagaban most!

But even Peter, despite his staunch and avowed commitment, betrayed Jesus (Matthew 26: 69 - 75). In Peter’s case, it was the devil that sought to destroy him and truncate his destiny as the cornerstone or foundation on which Christ would build his Church (Matthew 16:18; Luke 22:31); in Aregbesola’s case, some people say it was “isasi” - an evil invocation by enemies or detractors that causes a man to misbehave and lose favour with his benefactors. If you have been close enough to politicians, you will understand.

Dogs eating dogs, chicken feasting on one another’s intestines and the pull-him-down syndrome are common among politicians. One politician justified it by saying that fish eat fish to gain weight! Politics is not a place to venture if you are not well fortified - if you understand what I mean! It is “Igbo Odaju” (Forest of the Audacious), which is to be feared more than D. O. Fagunwa’s “Forest of a thousand daemons”.

I understand that efforts by Aregbesola and his friends to make amends have been thwarted by those who are happy that his political downfall has created gaps and vacuums for them to fill. Those ones are said to be saying “oti”, “mba” and “keria” to peace moves. They point at the fact that Aregbesola, someone who does not know how to do things by halves, threw all caution to the wind while standing against Tinubu and his presidential ambition. Those ones must have been behind the former Minister’s recent expulsion from the All Progressives Party (APC) in his ward in Osun state.

But there must be an end to battles and wars - as there must be to litigations. To err is human but to forgive is divine. It is in this light that I chose to view Aregbesola’s recent comments on the state of the nation, which contains pieces of advice that I believe are worth considering or was he simply going for broke with Tinubu? Excerpts:

“Former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola has issued a stark warning about the worsening socio-economic and political crisis in Nigeria, suggesting that if left unchecked, the country could be on the brink of a revolution…. Aregbesola expressed grave concern over what he described as ‘increasing inequality, widespread hunger, insecurity, and the erosion of citizens’ rights’, all of which he believes could fuel widespread unrest…

"Aregbesola pointed out that the growing gap between the nation’s wealthiest elite and the vast majority of struggling citizens was a ticking time bomb… ‘We are seeing worsening economic conditions where fewer and fewer people are thriving while the majority are sinking deeper into poverty. When I was growing up, wealth was not as concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite as it is today’, Aregbesola said, adding that the current trajectory of the nation—marked by a lack of basic rights and an ever-expanding underclass—may leave many with no choice but to resort to revolt.

“Aregbesola… noted that a key responsibility of the government is the welfare and security of its citizens but lamented that Nigeria’s current leadership has failed on both counts. ‘A society that cannot guarantee the safety and well-being of its people is a society on the brink of collapse. And once these basic rights are denied, people will resist, even if it leads to (a) revolution’, he warned.

“In a broader context, Aregbesola also advocated for transition to the parliamentary system of government, arguing that Nigeria’s current presidential system under which power is concentrated in the hands of a single individual is ill-suited to the country’s size and complexity. ‘It is unrealistic for one person to govern over 220 million Nigerians without checks and balances’, he said, noting that the parliamentary system would foster a more inclusive and accountable form of governance.

" Aregbesola likened the centralization of power under Nigerian presidents to a form of ‘modern colonialism’, pointing out the dictatorial tendencies that have characterized the Nigerian leadership. ‘If we continue to believe that one person has the capacity to rule this country alone, we are kidding ourselves. It’s time for a change’, he insisted”.

Our political leaders get wiser and speak like normal human beings only after they exit power. All the same, we should not throw the baby away with the bath water. We should not, because of the messenger, ignore the message - poignant, instructive and timely as it is. That Aregbesola chose to advise Mr. President through this forum indicates that he might have been shut out and no longer has access. The President should keep his doors open to foes and friends alike. If I recall well, he did vow to be the president of all Nigerians.

Born in 1960, Nuhu Ribadu, perhaps, had independence in his genes. Son of a first republic parliamentarian from Yola, Nuhu came with a good  spoon in his mouth. After he studied law, he  joined the police,  climbing  the career ladder of a corrupt and disoriented institution. Young  Ribadu, it appeared, resisted the mind bending culture and stored a grudge for filth. But cynics saw a temperamental, conceited, attention-seeking, power-hungry, and callow fellow.  In 2003, after glimpses of promise at the department of prosecution, Nuhu arrived on the national stage. 

It was 2003. President Obasanjo created the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and picked Nuhu Ribaduto clean the Augean Stable. Many said courage that was not stained with rabid materialism recommended  Ribadu. On the saddle, Nuhu Ribadu  approached his task  with fanatical zeal. He went after sacred cows, taking them by the horns and with glee. His ethic was rambunctious crime control rather than due process. Ribadu, it seemed, wanted to change Nigeria in a hurry. He stepped on Babangida, he bruised   Adenuga and he had to flee, he dragged Tafa Balogun the Inspector General in chains through the mud to jail. Ever since nobody has matched his daringness.

 Ribadu was far from a saint. His excesses were as telling as his passion. His EFCC instigated the impeachment of many thieving governors by hounding members of state legislatures. Critics said arbitrariness and abuse of power were as sinful as treasury looting. Opponents of the president’s suspected third term ambition said it was roguish selective justice. The flagrant disregard for due process in order to land a punch on corruption  didn’t  attract public opprobrium. Critics feared Ribadu would become a monster. In some cases, brazenly, a minority of the house of assembly was used to impeach sitting governors. Processes the courts later voided and described as kangaroo. One of Ribadu’s Achilles heels was the character of his loyalty to the appointing authority. Some said its ‘eye-service’ or ‘lickspittle’  content was a bit too much. 

 
 

Despite the excesses and signs of vacuousness, the masses celebrated Ribadu. Since Idiagbon, they hadn’t seen any Nigeria land a blow and make impunity stagger. Ribadu rejected a 15 million dollar bribe and returned it to the CBN. Ribadu brought down 419 cartels and chased others into oblivion. He rejected a hefty bribe from Nwude of the Nwude and Anajemba intercontinental notoriety. The people had found their hero. The world was fascinated. Politicians and government officials fretted.  Being a maverick, who appeared interested in hugging  the limelight as much as fighting financial crimes, corrupt  politicians couldn’t count on him.  But soon he slid into the slippery grounds of politics. 

Ribadu understood his environment. To succeed, he had to break rules. The state had been captured. The arms of the law were short and weak. He tried to get corruption courts to quicken the pace of justice. He couldn’t. He sought to build a professional fraternity of a few judges. With them, he could circumvent tardiness and rituals to secure convictions. Yet, sometimes, the only viable option was a media trial. Many arrests happened before investigations. So indefinite detentions without trial were commonplace. Ribadu had earned the trust of the public. At his peak, Ribadu was a tenacious watchdog barking at and biting  politicians who were stealing the country blind and fraudsters, who were damaging our reputation. 

At some point, he must have reflected upon his work and thought it would all come to nothing if our elections, which were incurably dubious, remained just a conveyor belt for the recycling of corrupt politicians. In 2007, Ribadu tried to influence the outcome of the political process. Some politicians were unconstitutionally banned because they were blacklisted by the EFCC. Others were pencilled down to be inhibited. Critics said that was the confirmation that Ribadu was a political wolf in a prosecutorial sheep’s clothing. For the public, Ribadu was the incorruptible conqueror of looters of the public treasury, his farts and misdemeanours were only  the confirmation he wasn’t a spirit. 

By 2007, Ribadu was at the peak of his glory. Outgoing Obasanjo promoted him and renewed his tenure at the EFCC. But Yaradua became president and Mike Okiro,  the new  Inspector General of Police, transferred Ribadu away from the EFCC to Kuru. That was the watershed. Soyinka wasn’t  silent those days. He protested the attempt to castrate Ribadu and the EFCC. Chief Umezoke, the chairman  of the main opposition party, ANPP, said the country was returning to infamy. This general sentiment was that Ribadu, a ray of hope, was  on the verge being dimmed out by the agents of darkness. After two assassination  attempts, Ribadu fled into exile. 

The return of Ribadu in 2010 was followed by his immersion in the putrid waters of partisan politics. An unholy baptism. On joining Tinubu’s  party, Tinubu handed him the presidential ticket but continued to flirt with President Jonathan. Ribadu’s dalliance  with Tinubu, whom many considered the archetypal politician, was the begining of the  demystification of Ribadu in the eyes of many. However, pragmatic were more forgiving. They said Ribadu needed a godfather to reach the power pinnacle after which he would resume the crusade. Predictably, Ribadu failed to make any impact at the elections. Those who thought he was an overambitious  and callow pawn sneered at him. 

If his sojourn in the ACN had a veneer of respectability, his defection to the ruling PDP to run for the 2015 Adamawa governorship seemed the stuff of sheer desperation. Ribadu had disdained the PDP and its leaders. Now he prostrated before them to be anointed.  Ribadu’s moral compass seemed utterly broken. Many who had adored him from a distance started to mourn. Mallam Ribadu had become another peripatetic politician scavenging for relevance without principles. When he was schemed out, he looked like an Esau after the porridge had finished. 

Buhari became president in 2015. Ribadu defected once again to the ruling APC. Again, he defected in time to seek again  the Adamawa governorship ticket in 2019. At this point, Ribadu was a confirmed ‘AGIP’ ( in love with Any Government In Power.) The grudge against corruption had vanished. The man had become the very thing he had for  so long  despised. Yet some sympathized with him and justified his apparent political promiscuousness as stooping to conquer to save the people. Because without power, ill-gotten or not, he could not resume the sanitization exercise. Ribadu was the sort of character Buhari would have loved. But Buhari didn’t use him. And that in itself was a sign of telling depreciation. 

As the 2023 elections drew near, Ribadu, after suffering another defeat in Adamawa, pitched his tent in Bourdillon.  Fortunately, Ribadu was not forgotten like Fani Kayode. Tinubu, who had handed him a presidential ticket in what was once termed as the marriage of the Beauty and the Beast, was still enamoured of him. Many of us, who retained vestiges of political lust for Ribadu, quietly hoped he would be the NSA. Because, we hoped for someone who had at some point in life had championed a small scale  revolution. The reformation of the nation’s security architecture was a priority. Meanwhile, Ribadu’s men began a whispering campaign, hinting that he had a novel security strategy. Many, propelled by nostalgia, fell headlong for it. 

Ribadu became the NSA. And started following Tinubu everywhere he went like an ADC. A powerful NSA, because of his closeness to the president, but with no powerful ideas. Days, weeks and months passed. Only photo ops with new service chiefs. Those who had  said he would establish a homeland security outfit to contain rampaging banditry and kidnapping and save the military that has been spread too thin from burnout  went  mute. Ribadu looked swallowed in oversized shoes. Our security architecture remained terribly unimaginative and constipated. A lot of motion but no new purposeful direction. The raw energy Ribadu had brought to the infant EFCC and restored the faith of many in government was nowhere. 

The president can’t  fashion new military strategies. Local mercenaries are performing military duties, protecting the country’s economic lifelines. Senior political  figures are now asking for foreign mercenaries. The president can’t fashion any political strategies to douse tensions and quench fires.  He hasn’t even bothered to tour the regions. He seems too arrogant to be sober. The Chief of Defence Staff spoke about Finland with visible frustration. Nothing tangible followed. The smarter youths are fleeting. A broke country that lacks urgency and imagination at the helm seems too bleak for them. The government, it seems, doesn’t know that slowing the brain drain is of national security importance.  

But that’s not the most worrying bit. In the last few weeks, Mallam Ribadu has been on television pushing alternative facts. It’s been  a most  difficult watch. Some are now calling him Comical Nuhu. Ribadu, with a straight face, told Nigerians  that insecurity had been significantly contained, and they could travel wherever they liked whenever they liked. Many laughed. But many of us, who love him,  mourned. Ribadu was the hero.  Now, he is the cheery sycophant. 

 If that outing was hilarious, the next at the Customs Conference was truly heart rending. After showering effulgent praises on  Customs Service, Ribadu he switched to talk about  Lakurawa, a new insurgency that has been claiming lives of innocent citizens and collecting taxes in Sokoto  and Kebbi. He couldn’t find sobriety. He wallowed in flippancy and frivolity. He said the insurgency had come at the wrong time. Because this was Tinubu’s time. And since  Tinubu had never lost to anyone, the insurgency was doomed. That bombastic Ribadu would have been unrecognizable to anyone who saw him last in 2007. The self-abasing praise-singer bruising sensibilities of his admirers with hymns of messianism for Tinubu can’t be Nuhu Ribadu. Ribadu, the famed  critic of politicians, now says Tinubu’s critics will be put to shame in a country where corruption and insecurity and hardship are at an all time high.  Not even the fact that many EFCC-indicted crooks now share Tinubu’s cabinet table with Ribadu has touched Ribadu’s conscience. 

The debate is now raging. Is Ribadu now a shadow of himself and was he always an impostor? May God reverse the metamorphosis of the great Mallam Ribadu. He can’t become fact-bending otimkpu for a political godfather, no matter the motivation. The Igbo say the mad man roams around, his mind with him. But God knows that while it’s smart to stoop to conquer,  sinking to  depths of sycophancy in search of power could be a political and moral  journey of no return. 

 My tears are not for Ribadu.  Ribadu’s metamorphosis is the story of Nigerian politics. My tears  are for Nigeria, my beloved country with a decadent political culture that sabotages promise and talent, and distributes poverty.

I attended for the first time, the Day of the Dead festival. It was at the Mexican Embassy in Abuja. The stairs leading from the embassy gates down to the swimming pool reception area was lit with over 70 candles.

There were photos of the dead. In the reception hall were two prominent photographs. To the left was that of Mrs Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti, Nigerian nationalist and women leader who passed away in 1978.

The photograph on the right was that of Ifigenia Martínez y Hernández credited with transforming Mexico’s political and economic landscape. She passed away on October 5, 2024. Mexicans place photographs of those whose memory they want to honour at the altar.

 
 

Actually, it is more a Western concept to wish that the dead rest in peace. In some religions, it is said that the dead remain dead until they awaken on judgement day. But for many in Africa, the dead are much part of the living. They merely become ancestors watching over the living. In such traditions, the dead are told not to sleep, but to remain awake and watchful.

If the dead are living, it means they are part of the household and partake in daily activities. Amongst the Ijaws of the Niger Delta and their neighbours, when alcoholic drink is to be taken, a little is first poured on the ground for the ancestors before the living commence drinking. It is also not uncommon for some food to be deliberately thrown on the ground for the ancestors. During festivals, the food and drinks of the ancestors are served specially so they can be part of the festivities.

But many indigenous peoples, especially in the Americas, Caribbean and Asia, specifically set aside days of festivity to celebrate the dead and the living. Often marked on the first two days of November, some people actually hold the festival for weeks. For instance, Cambodia holds a 15-day festival with the last day called the Pchum Ben, or “ball of food”.

Caribbean countries like Jamaica, Haiti, Antigua and Grenada hold the day with a blend of African funeral tradition.

The 2024 festival I attended, was a blend of Mexican culture, indigenous beliefs and Catholic traditions.

Mexican Ambassador Alfredo Miranda said Mexicans believe that life and death are a natural cycle, with death being a continuation of life in a spiritual world.

In the embassy reception hall was a beautiful seven-stage altar. The ambassador explained: “An altar is a spiritual offering, a way to communicate with the world of the dead, inviting the souls of loved ones to return for a moment to enjoy the things they loved in life… The levels of the altar, which can range from two to seven, represent different dimensions of existence. Typically, the upper levels symbolise the sky, the underworld, or the spiritual resting place, while the lower levels represent the earthly realm.”

On the numerous candles, Ambassador Miranda said: “The light from the candles symbolises hope and faith, illuminating the path for the souls, ensuring they find their way back.” He invited the gathering to light candles in dedication to their dearly beloved that had passed.

Marigold flowers, called cempasúchil, were also on display. The envoy said they are “believed to have a scent and colour so strong that they help guide the souls of the deceased back to their homes (and are) often laid from the doorway to the altar, symbolically leading the way for the spirits to return.”

Also, the favourite foods and drinks of the departed are placed in the altar.

Water is placed on the altar as a purifier and refreshment for the souls journeying from the spirit world. So also is salt which is believed to protect them from earthly contamination.

Incense is burnt to purify the environment and guide the spirits and, colourful paper cut-outs are made, symbolising the wind and the fragility of life.

Catrinas- elegant, finely dressed skeletal figures which are the Mexican ladies of death- were also placed on the altar. They remind people to enjoy life and laugh at death. Equally, they are supposed to encourage people to embrace death at it spares no social class.

Ambassador Miranda told the guests that: “In addition to the altars, many families visit cemeteries to clean and decorate graves, lighting candles and spending the night with their deceased loved ones, telling stories, playing music, and sometimes even dancing.”

As the night wore on, guests began to depart. I am also sure the visiting spirits also departed.

Dove-tailing into the Day of the Dead festival, was the first Mexican Food Festival in Nigeria called the ‘Mexican Gastronomic Week’. It held from October 1 – November 3, 2024.

Eduardo Perez Romero, the guest chef who flew into Nigeria for the festival, told me: “We (Mexicans) love to eat so much that even our dead come back to eat with us.” He said Mexican foods avoid preservatives and that they have strong African, Spanish and Arab influences.

Mrs Maria Gudelia Salinas Pulido de Adegoroye, who is married to a Nigerian, said when she arrived in the country, she was surprised that many stew varieties she found were like those of her native Mexico. She mentioned a number of pepper varieties common to both countries and said the popular Nigeria pepper soup also has its Mexican equivalent. However, she said, while Mexicans concentrate on the soup, Nigerians focus more on the meat and fish. Mrs Adegoroye said her experience on food in both countries led her to establish the Casa Mexicana.

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, UNESCO has listed the traditional cuisine of Mexico as an Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity.

Maize is a central element of that Mexican cuisine. The food has led to a dispute with its neighbour, the United States, US. Mexico imposed restrictions on genetically modified, GM, corn. It said this is to protect public health and the corn biodiversity that has been Mexican tradition for 10, 000 years.

But the US holds that the ban is not in consonance with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA, trade agreements. US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack filed a complaint that: “Mexico’s approach to biotechnology is not based on science and runs counter to decades’ worth of evidence demonstrating its safety and the rigorous, science-based regulatory review system that ensures it poses no harm to human health and the environment.”

But the Mexicans countered in a 200-page response that: “Far from there being a consensus on the safety of GMOs, scientific evidence points to various negative effects on health, on native corn and on the environment, derived from the cultivation and consumption of GM corn.”

For the Mexicans, maize, life and the Day of the Dead are an inseparable trinity.

 

The concept of democracy is grounded in fairness, transparency, and the power of the people to decide their leaders. However, the practice of democracy in Nigeria, particularly at the local government level, is increasingly becoming a farce. The recent conduct of local government elections across various states in the country reveals a troubling trend, state governors manipulating the process to secure predetermined outcomes. This betrayal of democratic principles is what can best be described as “Ojorocracy,” a system where cheating, trickery, and unfair practices prevail.

Local government elections are supposed to be the cornerstone of grassroots democracy, enabling citizens to have direct influence over the leaders who administer their immediate communities. In theory, these elections are meant to provide a platform for the people’s voices to be heard. Unfortunately, the reality in Nigeria tells a different story.

Time and again, state governors have hijacked the process, using their influence to ensure that candidates from their own political party dominate the polls. Reports abound of election results being rigged, ballot boxes being snatched, and voter intimidation becoming the norm. These actions make a mockery of the democratic process, transforming what should be free and fair elections into orchestrated charades that serve only the interests of the ruling elites.

 

Governors across Nigeria have been accused of turning local government elections into a game of “ojoro” manipulating electoral commissions to ensure their preferred candidates emerge victorious. The tactics are well-known.

For instance, loyalists are handpicked to fill key positions in the State Independent Electoral Commissions (SIECs), ensuring the entire election process is skewed in their favor.

More often than not elections at the local government level is usually characterized by late night election results that overwhelmingly favor the ruling party, sometimes with near-100% voter turnout in areas notorious for voter apathy.

 

In a similar vein, elections are the local government level is usually characterized by suppression of opposition parties, where candidates from other parties are disqualified or intimidated to withdraw from the race.

As if the foregoing are not enough, it is also characterized by deployment of state resources and security forces to harass political opponents and disenfranchise voters.

These manipulations are not just mere allegations; they are an open secret. In many states, it is taken for granted that local government elections are mere formalities with predetermined outcomes. This blatant disregard for democratic principles is disheartening and calls into question the sincerity of those in power when they claim to champion democracy.

 

In fact, when state governors subvert local government elections, they undermine the very foundation of democracy. This erosion of trust in the electoral system has far-reaching consequences:

For instance, when citizens perceive elections as nothing more than a “rigging festival,” they lose faith in the system. This disillusionment leads to voter apathy, reducing citizen participation in the democratic process.

Without a doubt, unfairly organized elections at the local government level stifles development at the grassroots: Local governments, if properly empowered, are crucial to delivering essential services and driving development. However, when the leadership is not truly representative, they are often unaccountable to the people and fail to prioritize local needs.

 

Poorly conducted local government election also entrenches a culture of corruption as handpicked local government officials often owe their allegiance not to the people but to the governors who installed them. This breeds a culture of patronage, where officials focus on enriching themselves and their political godfathers rather than serving the public.

In fact, Nigeria’s democracy cannot thrive if the local government level remains a bastion of electoral malpractice. State governors must be reminded that democracy is not about “ojoro” but about the will of the people. It is time for them to stop turning elections into a game of deceit and manipulation.

The federal government, civil society organizations, and the media have a crucial role to play in holding these governors accountable. Electoral reforms that ensure true independence of State Independent Electoral Commissions are urgently needed. Furthermore, there must be consequences for those who subvert the democratic process. Only by restoring integrity to local government elections can we begin to rebuild trust in Nigeria’s democracy.

 

Democracy thrives on the principles of fairness, transparency, and accountability. If state governors continue to turn local government elections into “Ojorocracy,” they are not just cheating the system, they are cheating the people they swore to serve. For Nigeria to achieve the democratic ideals it claims to uphold, it is imperative that elections, especially at the grassroots level, are conducted with integrity.

As local government election has come to stay in this part of the world, Nigerians must demand more from their leaders. Let us reject “ojoro” and embrace true democracy, where the voice of the people is not just heard but respected.

In recent years, patronage appointments have steadily become a defining characteristic of Nigeria’s political landscape, casting a shadow over good governance and sustainable development. The prevalence of this practice, where political allies, loyalists, or ethnic affiliates are rewarded with government positions based on personal allegiance rather than merit, is not just an old, familiar tale but one that perpetuates a cycle of mediocrity, inefficiency, and national regression.

As Nigeria grapples with multiple crises, from a dwindling economy to alarming levels of unemployment and insecurity, the question must be asked: Can we afford to keep mortgaging our nation’s future on the altar of patronage appointments?

Patronage appointments are not unique to Nigeria; they exist in various forms around the world. However, the impact is particularly damaging in the Nigerian context, where political offices are seen as avenues for personal enrichment rather than service to the people. The allure of patronage lies in its power to secure political loyalty. For many politicians, it is a quick and effective way to consolidate power, maintain control, and reward those who supported their electoral ambitions.

 

Patronage operates on the principle that “to the victor go the spoils.” This mindset is a relic of colonial rule and military regimes that fostered a culture where political office is synonymous with the distribution of wealth and influence. Once elected, Nigerian politicians often face intense pressure to compensate loyalists, party stalwarts, and influential backers who helped secure their victory, leading to the entrenchment of a patron-client relationship that takes precedence over national interests.

The impact of patronage on Nigeria’s governance structure is profound. When positions of authority are filled not on the basis of competence but on the strength of political connections, the result is predictable: inefficiency, corruption, and stagnation. Public institutions are flooded with unqualified personnel who lack the skills and expertise necessary to implement policies or deliver essential services.

The most glaring manifestation of this is in Nigeria’s public sector. Ministries, departments, and agencies are littered with appointees whose primary qualifications are their loyalty to the appointing authority. This has led to the erosion of meritocracy, a principle that should form the bedrock of any effective civil service. The ripple effects are felt across all sectors, education, healthcare, infrastructure, and security, where the lack of skilled professionals at the helm translates into poor service delivery and a decline in overall productivity.

 

Patronage appointments are not just a drain on Nigeria’s resources but also a breeding ground for corruption. Political appointees often see their positions as a reward for their loyalty and a chance to recoup their “investment” in the political process. This mindset drives a culture of rent-seeking, where officials use their offices to amass wealth through kickbacks, contracts awarded to cronies, and other forms of graft.

The unchecked spread of patronage has also contributed to the ballooning cost of governance in Nigeria. With every new administration comes an influx of political appointees, special advisers, and aides who serve more as political allies than effective policymakers. The result is an ever-growing payroll that drains public funds, leaving little for capital projects and social services that could improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

The implications of patronage appointments extend beyond governance; they also threaten Nigeria’s fragile unity. In a country already deeply divided along ethnic and regional lines, the practice of rewarding political allies from specific regions breeds resentment and a sense of exclusion among other groups. This deepens the already-existing fault lines in the nation, making it difficult to foster the sense of national unity needed for progress.

 

A case in point is the way federal appointments are often skewed in favor of individuals from the president’s ethnic group or geopolitical zone, contrary to the principles of federal character enshrined in the Nigerian Constitution. This selective approach to appointments not only undermines the federal character principle but also sends a dangerous message to citizens that their chances of benefiting from the nation’s resources are tied to their ethnic or regional affiliations.

The detrimental impact of patronage appointments is perhaps most evident in Nigeria’s inability to sustain meaningful reforms. Every administration comes into power with promises of transformation, but the reform agenda is often stymied by a bureaucracy filled with appointees who are more concerned with pleasing their patrons than implementing policies. The result is a cycle of failed reforms, abandoned projects, and policy inconsistencies that prevent Nigeria from reaching its potential.

Consider the healthcare sector, where successive administrations have failed to improve the system despite lofty promises. The issue is not a lack of resources but rather the inability to deploy those resources effectively due to incompetence and corruption driven by patronage. A similar story plays out in education, where political interference and patronage have led to poorly managed institutions, leaving students and educators to suffer the consequences.

 

With each new administration, Nigerians hold onto hope for change. However, it seems that patronage politics remains a persistent fixture in the political landscape. The current administration of President Bola Tinubu, for example, has been criticized for filling key positions with loyalists and political allies rather than competent technocrats who can tackle the country’s numerous challenges.

While every administration is entitled to appoint trusted individuals to key roles, the emphasis should be on appointing those who bring skills, experience, and a commitment to national service. Unfortunately, in the current climate, it appears that competence takes a backseat to loyalty. The effect of this is already being felt as the nation struggles to navigate economic turmoil, widespread poverty, and a spiraling debt crisis.

Nigeria is at a crossroads. The nation cannot afford to continue down the path of patronage-driven governance if it hopes to achieve sustainable development and improve the quality of life for its citizens. To move forward, the government must prioritize merit-based appointments. This would not only enhance the efficiency of public institutions but also build trust among the citizenry, who are increasingly disillusioned by the lack of progress.

 

However, not a few Nigerians have at different public events mentioned that several measures can be taken to curb the negative effects of patronage, In fact, they have being heard saying that strengthening Institutional frameworks would go a long way in bringing solution to the now already plague in governance. Anti-corruption agencies like the EFCC and ICPC should be empowered to investigate and prosecute cases of patronage-related corruption. This should include the appointment of officials based on transparency and accountability.

Close to the foregoing solution is that of promoting merit-based recruitment. They have insisted that the Nigerian government must revisit its recruitment policies to ensure that appointments are based on competence, qualifications, and proven track records. They are wont to add that Independent commissions can be set up to oversee appointments to public offices.

In a similar vein is the need for public awareness and advocacy. This is as civil society organizations and the media must continue to play a watchdog role in holding the government accountable for its appointments. In fact, public pressure can force the government to rethink its patronage practices.

 

Also is the need for legislative reforms. Nigeria’s lawmakers must enact laws that limit the number of political appointments that can be made by any administration. This will reduce the bloated payroll of political appointees and free up funds for developmental projects.

Without a doubt, the path forward is clear, but it requires political will and a collective effort from all Nigerians. Patronage appointments may provide short-term political gains, but they come at a long-term cost to the nation’s stability and progress. If Nigeria is to achieve its potential as Africa’s giant, it must break free from the shackles of patronage politics.

The time has come to place national interest above personal or party loyalty. Only by embracing meritocracy can Nigeria build a society where public offices serve the people, not the pockets of a privileged few. It is time to rethink patronage politics and choose a path that leads to genuine development and prosperity for all.

Today, as the Nigerian Tribune celebrates its 75th anniversary, it’s hard not to be pleasantly astonished by what it has accomplished. For three-quarters of a century, Nigeria’s oldest surviving privately owned English-language newspaper has withstood shifting national tides, weathered economic storms, thrived amid social upheavals, and survived cataclysmic political headwinds with praiseworthy aplomb. 

In the landscape of Nigerian journalism, the Tribune unquestionably stands as a towering and inspirational figure. It’s a paper that, like Nigeria itself, has journeyed through phases of optimism and hardship, growth and constraint, and renewal and resistance, which has earned it the fitting, well-deserved sobriquet of the “Great Survivor.”

Established on November 16, 1949, by the visionary Chief Obafemi Awolowo and his wife Chief HID (whom he memorably dubbed his “jewel of inestimable value”), the Tribune has never been a passive, diffident chronicler of history.

 Instead, as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said in his tribute to the paper yesterday, it has been a staunch, unremorseful advocate for democratic principles, social justice, and journalistic excellence. It has championed press freedom not as a convenient catchphrase but as a creed and has emerged as one of Nigeria's most steadfast and most consequential defenders of truth.

For any newspaper, particularly in Nigeria where journalism can be a precarious profession and where economic and political pressures have killed many promising media outfits, 75 years is nothing short of extraordinary. 

For the last six years, Tribune has been my intellectual sanctuary and an unlikely but cherished home for my thoughts, provocations, and ideals.

My relationship with the Tribune began in October 2018 when Mr. Edward Dickson, the paper’s Managing Director and Editor-in-Chief, approached me with an intriguing request: to simultaneously publish my Daily Trust on Saturday column in the Saturday Tribune.

 I initially hesitated. To be honest, I don’t know why I did. Perhaps, it was because of my sense of the complexities of simultaneous publication. Well, I later embraced the opportunity, recognizing the Tribune's unique readership and its storied legacy.  

Then I approached Malam Mannir Dan-Ali, at the time Daily Trust’s Editor-in-Chief, for his blessings. He proposed a compromise. He said I should delay the publication of my column in the Tribune by a day to prevent fragmenting the Daily Trust’s readership. 

However, I countered with a pragmatic view. I pointed out the distinct audiences of the two papers. I even cited Malam Mohammed Haruna’s successful dual-column venture between the Daily Trust and The Nation at the time.

Agreement remained elusive, but I pressed on and started sending my column to the Tribune. My inaugural column appeared on the back page of Saturday Tribune on November 10, 2018.  To their credit, the management of the Daily Trust lodged no complaints—at least, not until December 2018, when my column was abruptly axed under the weight of pressure from President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration. 

My relentless critiques of the regime’s corruption, nepotism, and governance misadventures had evidently struck too many sensitive nerves. Thus, the Tribune became not merely my new home but my only discursive refuge for unfiltered truth-telling. Its storied pages began to shoulder the burden of my weekly angst and irreverent commentaries.

What stood out about this new relationship was its openness, call it originative openness, if you like. Despite my identity as a Muslim northerner — an unlikely recruit for a paper historically tied to the Awolowo legacy, which is rooted in Yoruba identity and Christian ethos — the Tribune sought me out. 

This act exemplified the paper’s ideological cosmopolitanism and commitment to robust, untrammeled discourse. Remarkably, by a twist of happenstance, all three editors of the paper’s flagship editions — Debo Abdulai of the daily, Sina Oladeinde of the Sunday Tribune, and Lasisi Olagunju of the Saturday Tribune — are Muslims. Such a convergence of diversity within a publication owned by a staunchly Christian family speaks volumes about its commitment to inclusivity and its transcendence of exclusivist affiliational politics.

This openness wasn’t merely symbolic. It was a lived reality. Months after I began my column, some voices from Yorubaland clamored for my removal, citing grievances over my columns that addressed what I have called the symbolic and material marginalization of Yoruba Muslims in Yorubaland and my forceful, searing critiques of former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, who is married into the Awolowo family. 

The management of Tribune stood resolutely by me. The Editor-in-Chief himself reached out through a phone call and assured me of the management’s unwavering support for me, not because they agreed with what I had written but because they recognized and respected my right to my thoughts. 

That moment, both touching and profound, encapsulated the editorial courage that has kept the Tribune alive for 75 years. It was, for me, a resounding affirmation of the paper’s editorial and professional integrity, which many publications sadly lack.

The Tribune’s history is one of intellectual bravery, of defying conventions to carve a path for Nigerian journalism that is inclusive, bold, and unapologetically inquisitive. Even when the paper could have comfortably catered only to a Yoruba Christian readership, it chose to embrace divergent voices.

 The 2018 hiring of Ja’afar Ja’afar, another northern Muslim journalist, to write for the Sunday edition of the paper was another admirable instantiation of its discursive inclusivity. Ja’afar, whose fierce independence eventually led him to establish his own online newspaper, which famously videographically exposed former Governor Abdullahi Ganduje’s dollar stuffing from contractors, had found a home in the Tribune, which shows yet another evidence of the paper’s unique ability to welcome diverse perspectives.

The Tribune’s remarkable longevity stems from its willingness to evolve without sacrificing its principles. In an era when media houses are struggling to remain independent, when they are capitulating to powerful interests and becoming watchdogs that neither bark nor bite, the Tribune has held firm. 

It has rejected the temptations of sensationalism and superficiality, opting instead to pursue depth, nuance, and moral clarity. Its editors understand that the role of the press is not merely to report but to illuminate, to provoke thought, to transcend the familiar and the predictable and, when necessary, to challenge the status quo.

 At the Tribune, the pen is never a weapon wielded out of spite but a tool for enlightenment, a platform to broaden horizons, and a deliberative arena to deepen discourse.

What is it about the Tribune that has allowed it to endure in a country where so many newspapers have come and gone? Perhaps it is the paper’s ability to navigate the complexities of identity, culture, and power.

 Nigeria is a nation of many religions, ethnicities, and ideological dispositions. The Tribune has thrived by engaging with these multiplicities rather than retreating into a narrow, self-affirming silo. Through a civil war, bloody communal upheavals, coups, and constitutional crises, the paper has remained resolute in its dedication to a better Nigeria, a Nigeria where people of all backgrounds can find a voice, where the exchange of ideas is cherished, and where the media’s role is seen as sacred.

As the Nigerian Tribune celebrates its 75th year, I feel immense pride to be part of its legacy, even if only for six of its 75 illustrious years of fearless journalism. For me, and for countless Nigerians, this paper is not just an institution; it is a beacon, a reminder of what journalism can and should be.

 It represents the best of Nigeria’s spirit, a spirit that refuses to be silenced, that champions diversity, that dares to hold the powerful accountable while giving voice to the voiceless.

Seventy-five years is a significant milestone, but it is only a prelude to what lies ahead. I have no doubt that the Tribune will continue to be Nigeria’s conscience, an unwavering light in times of darkness, and a trusted friend to those who seek truth.

 For as long as there are stories to be told, injustices to be exposed, and truths to be defended, the Nigerian Tribune will be there, steadfast and unswerving.

Long may it live.