Kaduna State Governor  Uba Sani who announced on January 27, 2025 that he is negotiating with killer bandits, is dead wrong.   The over  six months he said he has  been negotiating  with these vipers who  kill, maim, kidnap and collect ransom from innocent people, is a waste of  time.

The governor’s  claims that he engaged in   peace talks with the bandits  after consultations with  critical stakeholders including the National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, does not sanctify  the process. In self-justification,  Governor  Sani declared: “I’d rather negotiate with bandits than to bear the weight of a single life lost in Kaduna. If not, I will be held accountable on the day of resurrection, having promised and sworn an oath.” This sounds fine. But it is only a sound. Contemporary history teaches us that negotiating with bandits and terrorists including granting them amnesty, has merely led to more deaths and a sense of empowerment by the criminals.

Governor Sani was right in 2021 when as Senator representing Kaduna Central, he vowed never to negotiate with the bandits. Drawing on his experience as part of the  Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai government that had previously negotiated with the bandits, Sani told Nigerians on Arise Television: “When you  give them (bandits)  money, these guys  are not reasonable. They are not responsible. They will use  the money  to buy more arms and ammunition to continue to attack  more people.”

In that interview he  declared: “…We don’t talk to the bandits. Or you want the Kaduna State government   to talk to the bandits? We will not do that.” He gave a cogent reason why  there should be no negotiation  with the bandits: “ They (bandits) will never retire. The most important   thing is that  we need to confront them. We are a country. We are a government. When you are elected, you must always take difficult decisions.”  That was Governor Sani three years ago. So what has changed? Is it that the bandits have repented their ways and are now candidates for heaven? Or better still, why has Uba Sani changed?

Also, he needs to disclose  the terms of agreement he has reached with the bandits. What are they getting in return from the government? What happens to their guns; will they be taken to other states, handed over to the government or simply tossed into River Kaduna? What happens to the bandits? Are they to be given land to resettle? If so, what happens to the hordes of bandits that are not Nigerians? Will they and their families be given citizenship?

I have raised these questions so that tomorrow, after having expended state resources on this fruitless journey, Sani would not like other governors who had taken this path, come with tales of woe. I think it is a bad idea  to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different result.  Sani had worked with El-Rufai when he was the Federal Capital Territory Minister and, moved with him to Kaduna State in 2015  when the latter was elected governor. The following year, the El-Rufai government  took state resources to pay off the bandits.  It reached out to these killers as far as the Republics of  Niger, Cameroon, Chad, Mali and Senegal.

El-Rufai told the media why his government took money out of the country to pay the killers: “Fulanis are in 14 African countries and they traverse this country   with the cattle. So many of these people were killed, cattle lost and they organised themselves and came back to revenge.”

On some of the steps his government took, El-Rufai said: “We got a group of people that were going round trying to trace some of these people in Cameroon, Niger Republic and so on to tell them that there is a new governor who is Fulani like them and has no problem paying compensations for lives lost and he is begging them to stop killing.” As Sani explained in his interview, these bandits simply used the money they were paid to buy more arms and ammunition. The result is that Kaduna State became a killing field.

Similarly, Governor Bello Masari of neigbouring Katsina State engaged in negotiations with the bandits for three years from 2016. In September 2019, he announced that:  “The negotiation is yielding results. Now I can say over 80 per cent of people under captivity in Katsina State have been released.” Masari announced amnesty and dissolved the vigilante and volunteer groups that were fighting the bandits. But nine months later after the bandits had secured all they could from the state government, the governor cried that  they had reneged.  In saying that the bandits are worse than animals, Governor Masari lamented: “How can a human being behave the way an animal cannot behave?”

When Muhammadu Buhari was President and Commander-in-Chief,  he told Nigerians that many of these bandits are trained mercenaries from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and  Central African Republic who fled Libya after Mouammar Ghadafi was defeated. So, how does   Sani hope to rehabilitate them? I am sure the governor is aware that banditry in Kaduna State is not mere criminality; that there is an ethno-religious bent. This is why the bandits have strong supporters amongst the affluent like Sheikh Ahmad Gumi who claims that the bandits are: “ a population  that is pushed  into criminality” and that; “They are a peaceful people.”  In fact, Gumi says the bandits are liberation fighters!

Also, the current Minister of State for Defence, Bello  Muhammad Matawale as  Zamfara State Governor in 2021 told then President Buhari that: “Not all of them (bandits) are criminals…some of them, sometimes were cheated by so-called vigilante groups…when the vigilante groups attacks them, they go for reprisals.” I think in order not to get  entangled in such conspiracy theories and the type of wasted journey  Governors like El-Rufai and Masari embarked upon,  Governor Uba Sani should simply uphold  his oath of office to ensure the welfare and security of the people. This includes ensuring that  criminals, irrespective of ethnicity, gender, religion or citizenship, are brought to justice.

As we all know, the armed forces and the security services alone cannot overcome the bandits. In fact, the greatest armour against banditry is the masses on whom it is visited.  To ensure this, all our communities should in the model of the Civilian JTF, be trained and armed to fight   bandits and terrorists. In the short term, our military should be deployed to retake all territories under the control of bandits and terrorists and, return our peoples currently in the Internally Displaced Peoples’ IDP camps back to their homes. To politicise such a basic necessity, is to endanger the whole country. 

E be like say, for Naija, hope don nearly turn to endangered species. If you hear wetin people dey talk for junction, inside bus, or even for beer parlour, you go think say everybody don troway hand. “Nigeria no fit better,” “All of dem na thief,” “Nothing dey work for this country”—na these kind talk full ground. E be like say e don almost become national anthem.

But wait first, make we look am well. Among all this wahala, kasala, and gbas gbos, some Nigerians still dey wey no gree fall for the syndrome of hopelessness. Dem no gree troway their belief, dem no gree turn their back on the green-white-green. Dem be real good, real patriotic Nigerians wey get steeze!

E no be news say Nigeria get her own wahala. From power wahala to bad roads, from insecurity to jaga-jaga government policies, from politicians wey sabi chop belle full to institutions wey be like e dey on life support. Man pikin go ask, “Na dis kind country person go still dey show love?”

E make sense o, because as e be so, hope don dey run comot from people mind. Even the small pikin for street fit tell you say “Uncle, country hard.” Na why plenty people dey waka comot—Japa dey reign, and na because dem wan find better life.

But even with all these, some people dey wey no go ever renounce Naija. Some dey stay because dem believe say we fit fix am. Dem sabi say e hard, but dem gree say we no fit abandon ship when storm dey blow. Dem dey here, dey hustle, dey fight, dey push, dey stand for better Nigeria.

Who be these people? E no be say dem holy pass, no be say dem get another country where dem dey hide go every December. No be say dem no fit Japa if dem want. But dem choose to stay. Dem choose to do right. Dem choose to dey honest even when e no favour dem.

You don see the civil servant wey refuse collect bribe, even when dem mock am say “You go die poor”? You don see the policeman wey no gree take egunje, wey dey do him work with pride? You don see the teacher wey dey train pikin dem with passion, even though salary no reach buy better rice for market? You don see the journalist wey dey report truth, even when e no safe? You don see the market woman wey no go cheat you even if she fit?

Dem full ground. We dey see dem, even if dem no make noise.

One day, I enter one government office, and as usual, queue don long like Lagos traffic. Na im one man waka come, come tell the oga for counter say, “Oga abeg, take this thing make you help me sharp-sharp.” The man look am, smile, come say, “My brother, if I do am for you, wetin go make system work for another person?” The other people for queue just dey look am like say na spirit. Person wey no take bribe? For this Naija? But na so dem dey, real good Nigerians wey dey do the right thing even when nobody dey look.

Some people go talk say “Na patriotism I wan chop?” Dem go yarn say patriotism na for people wey never wise, say “Shine your eye, country no send you!” But true patriotism no be foolishness. No be say you go dey blind to the problem wey dey ground. No be say you go dey act like say everything dey okay when e no dey okay.

Patriotism na the belief say, even though the country get wahala, you go do your own part to make am better. Na why some people dey vote with sense, even when dem know say rigging fit dey. Na why some people still dey pay tax, even when dem dey fear say politicians fit chop am. Na why some people go still dey campaign for justice, even when dem know say the system be like say e don break.

No be just say dem good or dem patriotic, dem get steeze. No be say dem just dey do things anyhow, dem dey do am with style, with confidence, with vim.

You don see Naija athletes for Olympics? Even when dem no get better support, dem go still represent well. You don see tech guys wey dey build things from scratch, even though government policy no help dem? You don see musicians wey dey sing about Naija, wey dey make the world see our culture? Na the steeze be that—doing the right thing, but doing am with vibes.

One man wey I sabi na taxi driver, but him no dey ever cheat person. Him dey tell you say, “Oga, na #500 go carry you reach junction, make I no use lie spoil my day.” Another woman wey dey fry akara for my area dey always give small pikin extra akara, she go talk say, “Make hunger no knack am.” Small things, but na these small things dey make big difference.

E easy to complain. Na the default setting for plenty Nigerians now. But as long as some people still dey do the right thing, e mean say hope never die. If one person dey honest, another person fit learn from am. If one person dey stand for truth, another person go fit join.

The truth be say, Naija never finish. E no easy, but we no fit just troway am like condemned iron. The people wey believe, the people wey dey stand, na dem go make the country better. Na dem be the real MVPs, the real patriots, the ones wey get steeze.

So, next time wey you wan join people dey talk say “Nigeria don spoil finish,” check around you. You go see that market woman, that teacher, that small pikin wey dey still carry flag for independence day, that guy wey dey refuse to do mago-mago. Those ones, na dem be real Nigerians.

And as dem dey hold the country for ground, make you self check yourself. You fit be one of them? You fit do your own part? Because na so change dey start—small small, from one person to another.

Nigeria go better? Yes, if the real good Nigerians no give up. If the real good Nigerians, with their steeze, still dey push, still dey hope, still dey believe.

Because at the end of the day, na we go fix this country. Na we.

So, like I’d tell Duuge, Danjuma, Fatimah, Austen, Abdulshakur, Rukky, Onyeka, Chris …Nigerians abound in their millions that want to be Nigerians for the right reasons. And it still has not changed…Those Nigerians are not easily understood because they will not give bribes, all their actions are in line with tradition, society’s good norms and rationality.

They are generally good and righteously tribalized, they believe in the principles of live and let live. These Nigerians are neither the bottom power women nor the moneybag men. They strive daily to remain patriotic and committed to the Nigerian dream despite the reality, they are disciplined and are hardworking, and they battle the stark reality that as patient dogs they may never have any bone left.

These sets of Nigerians suffer from the Nigerian experiment because of the larger majority’s inability to curb greed, inability for us to be fair and rational towards other people’s perspectives, opinions, positions and interests. The continuous inability to make sacrifices for the common good, an unwillingness to respect our institutions…like, the abuse of our health and educational institutions in the name of na government property and so it’s nobody’s own, but for the sake of these Nigerians—Nigeria will win!

Democracy thrives on transparency, accountability, and the rule of law. The legislature, as the guardian of democratic governance, plays a crucial role in lawmaking, budget approval, and oversight. These functions ensure that government policies align with the public interest, resources are allocated equitably, and the executive remains accountable. However, legislative corruption, particularly the exchange of money for legislation, undermines democracy, distorts policymaking, and erodes public trust in governance. Corruption in the legislature is a reduction of the sanctity of the legislature itself and a reduction of its credibility.

In Nigeria, the escalating issue of legislative corruption is a cause for immediate concern. Public confidence in government institutions is rapidly eroding as lawmakers are perceived to prioritize personal gain over national development. At a recent Investors roundtable convened by the office of the Vice President, concerns were raised about the National Assembly’s obstructive stance towards business. Similarly, at a civil society gathering, participants alleged that the 10th National Assembly trades freely in legislation and legislative approval.

Recent allegations, such as the 2025 Budget Scandal—where the Senate Committee on Tertiary Education and TETFUND allegedly demanded N8 million from each university vice chancellor for budget approval—highlight the systemic nature of bribery. With 60 federal universities involved, this equates to N480 million diverted from education to corruption. University administrators, already struggling with limited budgets, are left with no choice but to comply, exacerbating the crisis in the education sector. 

The issue extends beyond education. Foreign investors report that legislative hostility and demands for illicit payments deter business. A 2023 World Bank report ranked Nigeria 131st out of 190 in ease of doing business, citing bureaucratic corruption as a significant obstacle. These corrupt practices not only discourage foreign investment but also stifle economic growth, underscoring the urgent need for economic reforms.

Civil society organisations have played a crucial role in exposing and challenging the 10th National Assembly’s corrupt practices. They have accused the Assembly of openly demanding cash or contracts before approving government projects and bills. This normalisation of corruption signals a dangerous shift in governance, where financial incentives dictate policy decisions rather than national interests. When bribery becomes a prerequisite for legislative approval, policies that could enhance economic development and social welfare are either delayed or distorted, ultimately harming the general populace.

Corruption in Nigeria’s legislature has deep historical roots. During the Second Republic (1979–1983), legislators were accused of accepting bribes to influence national policies. Research conducted in 1996 by Dr Okonkwo Cletus Ugwu has this to say about the 1979-83 set of legislators: “The executive used other patronages like allocation of plots and distributorship to lure some of the Legislators into dancing to its tune.” This historical context of corruption in the legislature underscores the need for long-term solutions to this pervasive issue.

Corruption in the legislative arm of government in Nigeria was not entirely the result of the legislators’ actions. In 1980, at the inception of the second republic, chief executives or heads of the executive arm of government at the federal and state levels introduced what was called “Assembly liaison officers”. Their main job was to lobby legislators, but it was in a negative sense here. Constituency projects entered the lexicon and were liberally abused without consequence. Transparency in the conduct of legislative business got blurred, and the culture of cash exchange for legislative support got entrenched.

The return to democracy in 1999 saw a resurgence of corruption, with lawmakers demanding kickbacks for approving budgets and bills. The infamous “Ghana-Must-Go” scandal in 2000, where lawmakers received cash-stuffed bags to pass bills, exemplifies this era. The scandal exposed how much money influenced legislative decisions, setting a persistent precedent. About four Senate residents were removed between 1999 and 2007, all linked to issues of alleged corruption. 

Between 2007 and 2015, bribery became more institutionalised. Legislators exploited constituency projects for personal gain, diverting public funds intended for grassroots development. For instance, a 2013 audit revealed that over 60% of allocated constituency project funds in Nigeria were either unaccounted for or misappropriated. Lawmakers would allocate funds for non-existent projects, facilitate the award of contracts to their associates, or inflate project costs to siphon money for personal use. In her book “Fighting Corruption is Dangerous,” former Finance Minister Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala revealed that in 2014, the National Assembly was allegedly bribed with ₦17 billion by the administration of then-President Goodluck Jonathan to pass the budget. These claims underscored concerns about the integrity of the legislative budgeting process.

Between 2015 and 2023, the Nigerian National Assembly was implicated in several corruption scandals, highlighting challenges in governance and accountability. Notable instances include allegations that in 2016, some members of the House of Representatives had inflated the national budget by inserting unauthorised projects, a practice known as budget padding. This led to internal conflicts and calls for investigations. However, the matter was not conclusively resolved.

The present-day National Assembly is increasingly perceived as a bastion of corruption, where financial inducements determine legislative actions rather than public welfare. The growing perception that lawmakers prioritise their financial interests over governance responsibilities further alienates citizens from the democratic process. Public perception of the National Assembly as the “house of corruption” has far-reaching implications. It could create a legitimacy crisis for the entire government, lead to significant erosion of public trust in that institution, generally lead to poor service delivery as every implementing agency has a ready excuse not to perform, impede oversight function due to lack of cooperation, and could worsen corruption in ministries, departments and agencies (MDA).

Legislators are elected to represent the will of their constituents and, therefore, the nation. Taking cash for legislation or even oversight is a corrupt thwart of popular will and public interest. A legislature degrades itself to the level of a bazaar floor where the highest bidder gets any legislation passed, including appropriation. The perception, rightly or wrongly, that whatever the executive wants passed, they must pay in advance does irreparable damage to the reputation of the symbol of the Nigerian people. Worse still, inviting corporate entities by the National Assembly committees to be harassed to cough out cash is a significant disincentive for investment. Although with scanty evidence, this “cash-for-legislative approval” phenomenon is now popularly referred to as the “midnight economy “.

Legislative corruption has severe and far-reaching consequences. First, it erodes public trust in the National Assembly, creating a legitimacy crisis that can lead to political apathy and instability. According to a 2024 Transparency International report, 76% of Nigerians believe their legislature is corrupt, reflecting a profound loss of confidence in governance. As citizens become disillusioned with democratic institutions, voter turnout declines, and political engagement diminishes, weakening the very foundations of democracy.

Secondly, weak legislative oversight allows financial mismanagement within ministries and government agencies, exacerbating governance failures. A 2019 report by Nigeria’s Auditor General found that over N300 billion in government funds remained unaccounted for due to weak legislative scrutiny. When lawmakers prioritise personal enrichment over oversight responsibilities, government agencies operate with little accountability, increasing inefficiency and waste.

Thirdly, when corruption dictates policy decisions, essential public services—such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure—suffer due to misallocated funds. The alleged diversion of funds in the 2025 Budget Scandal exemplifies how universities, already struggling with poor infrastructure and inadequate funding, are further deprived of necessary resources. The long-term impact includes declining educational standards, brain drain and reduced economic competitiveness.

When legislative approval paid for has economic consequences, the adverse impact is passed on to the public in the form of inflation, unfavorable trade terms, and high development project costs.

The practice of cash-for-legislative approval threatens the foundation of democracy. Its legitimacy is severely compromised when the legislature operates as a marketplace where financial transactions dictate legislative decisions. The perception that legislative approvals are contingent on bribery damages the National Assembly’s reputation and discourages foreign investment. On a broader scale, corruption in the legislative branch of government sustains social injustice and economic inequality. It undermines the making of just laws, fair competition, and economic growth by fostering an atmosphere where only those with money and connections can get legislative approval.

Without immediate reforms, Nigeria’s government’s credibility remains at risk. Corruption’s unchecked influence in legislative decision-making fosters a culture of impunity, where lawmakers feel emboldened to continue illicit practices without fear of consequences.

Restoring accountability and transparency is imperative. Strengthening anti-corruption institutions, fostering media and civil society participation, and ensuring businesses operate free from legislative coercion are critical steps toward reform. The public must recognise that democracy is not self-sustaining; it requires active participation and vigilance to hold leaders accountable. Ultimately, the Nigerian people must demand change, as the survival of democracy depends on it. The battle against legislative corruption requires collective action, persistent advocacy, and unwavering commitment to justice. Through these efforts, Nigeria can build a future where governance serves the people rather than private interests.

Almost mid way into the Tinubu presidency, the face of the 2027  opposition to his perpetuation is on display. An untidy opposition is nearly on full display but in a perpetual stampede. Key opposition figures are lashing out at surrogates of the ruling party from different  angles in a most uncoordinated matter. In the process, they are all exposing their weaknesses and unpreparedness to assume power.

The major organized opposition party, the PDP, is in perpetual flux. Perpetually writhing from internal chaos fuelled by planted dissidents, the party still manages to  host major opposition voices. Their mascot is former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, a perpetual presidential candidate and national lead grumbletonian.  He seems to have monopolized the enterprise of opposition rhetoric and thus kept Tinubu’s spokespersons busy.  In his latest bouts, Atiku has kept up the theme of accusing Tinubu and the ruling APC of trying so very hard to make Nigeria a one party autocracy. 

On a weekly basis, herds of PDP members have been migrating into the ruling party. This is familiar Nigerian political behaviour. Unofficial sources insist that the Tinubu war machinery has a secret budget for fomenting trouble in the PDP and literally buying defecting members from all opposition parties. It is said that the PDP and Labour Party are pricier than defectors from other minor parties.  In turn, permanent trouble makers in both major opposition parties are on permanent retainership to ensure that the major opposition parties remain perennially embroiled in crises, including fisticuffs and open wrestling at meetings.

Only last week, a meeting of the Board of Trustees(BOT) of the PDP in Abuja was so engulfed in open brawls that when the police arrived, they could only play the untidy role of fight separators instead of firing tear gas and rubber bullets for which they are better practiced and trained in such situations. 

The unconfirmed narrative around the confusion in the PDP is that Mr. Nyesom Wike, FCT Minister and Tinubu’s resident political attack spaniel, has the unscripted job description of keeping the PDP in perpetual discord up to and beyond 2027. He has no business in facilitating settlement in the party or even ensuring that the party survives as one.

In  his practiced role of opposition town crier, Mr. Atiku has recently  upped the ante of his alarm bells. Only a few days ago, he screamed out against the arrest and detention of Mr. Omoyele Sowore and Prof. Usman Yusuf  on baseless charges as evidence of a plan to incarcerate all outspoken critics and opposition figures all over the country. The ruling administration is yet to respond to this charge but has insisted on the criminal culpability of the affected individuals for the offences that led to their arrest and arraignment.

The Bauchi State Governor, Mr. Bala Mohammed has similarly been insistent in his solo criticisms of the Tinubu administration from a policy perspective. His attacks have focused on northern regional interests. He has been insistent that Tinubu’s troubled Tax Bill, for instance,  is essentially an anti- northern ploy to keep the region in perpetual economic under development. Tinubu and his support cast of partisan governors have insisted otherwise but Governor Mohammed is unbowed and unbent. So far, he has targeted Nyesom Wike at the level of the opposition PDP, insisting that Wike is playing an untidy partisan script on behalf of Tinubu to permanently destabilize the PDP ahead of 2027.

The case of Mr. Peter Obi and his host Labour Party belongs differently. Obi has remained the most consistent and orderly voice of the opposition  especially in the post-2023 election season. Mr. Obi has hinged his opposition voice on systemic irregularities in the Tinubu-APC regime. He has been insistent on harping on the neglect of funding and prioritization of healthcare, education and poverty alleviation in the policy mix of the Tinubu presidency. Not to mention the disastrous security landscape and dastardly economic management profile of the administration. The major headache of the ruling party with the Obi version of opposition is the role of the Obidient Movement in the Obi political factor. It is not the Labour Party per se.

While the Labour Party remains a minority party controlling only the lone state of Abia, the Obidient Movement is an amorphous popular movement with an intangible horizontal structure that has been difficult to track and control. The Obidients are everybody who disagrees with the status quo, every youth who rejects the politics of business as usual and the bogey of ethnic factionalism in Nigerian. There is literally no ward, local government, state or national structure to bribe, buy or systemically  destabilize. The Obidients are a broad spectrum of Nigerians spread across the length and breadth of the nation in no particular pattern.  They are people with a shared belief  and shared values. Those shared beliefs happen to run counter to the dominant doctrine and creed of the ruling party and traditional Nigerian political doctrine of “anything goes for as long as we win”.

The apparent formlessness of the Obidients phenomenon is what equipped them to ambush the Tinubu party in the 2023 presidential elections. They shocked Lagos, shook Abuja, swept the South-east, South-south and almost took the North-central. The formlessness of the Obidients equipped them to stage these surprise political ambush operations which was a major upset in that election.  Therefore, on the scale of opposition threats, Peter Obi and the Obidients pose by far the more lethal and credible threat to the political status quo going forward.

In an attempt to penetrate the inscrutable mien of the Obidients, the Tinubu-ethnic high command floated a kite only a fortnight ago. Chief Bisi Akande, known Yoruba chieftain and Tinubu-APC political  gadfly went on the social media to allege that the Obidients movement was behind the #EndSARS revolt of 2020 which shook Lagos and the rest of the country. According to this latest fabrication, the #EndSARS revolt was manufactured by the Obidients in far away United

States and ‘imported’ into Nigeria with the sole aim of ending Tinubu’s political career, hence the revolt made landfall mostly in Lagos and the location of the Lekki Toll Gate.

Yet, it is widely known that the #EndSARS revolt was a nearly spontaneous uprising of Nigerian youth against rampant nationwide harassment of and brutality against Nigerian youth by the SARS unit of the Nigerian police. Obviously, Mr. Akande’s recent fabrication is an attempt to criminalize the Obidients by tainting them with a subversive tar brush so that they could perhaps be branded a treasonous ‘terrorist’ organization by a pliant NASS and over compromised national security establishment.

 It is therefore proper that Peter Obi and other Obidients have risen to speak out against Mr. Akande’s myth making by challenging him to substantiate his claims. The task before the Obidients movement in the light of this is to deepen the sources  of the strength that led it to dazzling success in the 2023 presidential elections.

Of late however, opposition to the Tinubu-APC hegemony has showed up in a more consequential quarter- from inside the APC itself. My friend Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State Governor, has been quite busy politically of late. In addition to battling his local opponents in the state, he has openly attacked the APC hierarchy and political leadership at the national level openly. Specifically, El-Rufai has pointed at the intellectual hollowness of the APC leadership as the source of its policy incoherence and bad governance in the country.

Tinubu’s resident hounds have quickly accused El- Rufai of a ‘sour grapes’ mentality, insisting that he is being critical of the party and the government because he was unsuccessful in securing security clearance to get onto the Tinubu cabinet. The man has stubbornly stood his grounds. He has insisted that he will carry on with his opposition spirit but within the party. This is a clear indication of imminent cracks within the walls of the ruling APC party.

Soon after El-Rufai’s face off with mainstream APC, former Transportation Minister and first runner –up in the last APC presidential convention, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, spoke out at a democracy conference in Abuja. His contention was that Nigeria’s political culture is essentially Machiavellian in a rather devious and even violent manner. Nigerian politicians will kill, maim, steal to secure and remain in power. He indicated clearly that those expecting Tinubu to voluntarily hand over power to them are being delusional. He reiterated the standard Machiavellian dictum that power is never voluntarily given away  but must be violently snatched.

This assertion has thoroughly upset the Tinubu power establishment.  They have condemned Amaechi for advocating violence in politics. Specifically, Tinubu’s Minister of Defense and former Governor of Zamfara State, Mr. Matawalle,  has come out to criticize Amaechi’s perspective. The federal government has also spoken out against Amaechi through the many minions in the Abuja state house.

An interesting  response has emanated from the Tinubu camp on the swelling opposition currents against the administration in the count down to its mid term. Staunch Tinubu acolytes have reminded opponents of the man’s hidden strengths and track record of power absolutism. In a viral Facebook post about four days ago, Mr. Joe Igbokwe, an unrepentant Tinubu devotee, reminded those opposed to Tinubu’s second term of the man’s arsenal of political assets which include tenacity, ruthlessness, huge resources, preparedness and experience. What Mr. Igbokwe dared not openly mention is of course Tinubu’s stupendous wealth which implies an awesome war chest of cash that can be deployed to submerge any and every opposition in the country at any moment.

The present state of the exchange between the incumbent Tinubu power formation and the opposition indicates a less than clear picture. The opposition parties are in a flux and uncoordinated state. At the level of their own internal party dynamics, these parties are in a state of perpetual calamity. At the level of policy divergence from the ruling party, we can hardly identify the opposition parties as different or divergent in any substantial way from the incumbent calamity which has literally ruined the country.

The possibility of an internal split within the ruling APC is a latent possibility. It is clear that the Tinubu faction that is the incumbent authority in the land is a conservative prebendal money-grabbing faction of the APC. It has no intellectual or ideological content or focus. The more enlightened social democratic and progressive wing of the APC is the arm with people like El-Rufai, Amaechi, Osinbajo, Oshiomhole etc as main voices. They were excluded from the power centre soon after the Tinubu victory.

The only option open to the opposition political forces in the country ahead of 2027 is a serious structural and electoral  coalition. This should consist of elements of the PDP, Peter Obi and his  Obidient Movement and the alienated progressive  arm of the APC. The Labour Party should be discounted. It does not exist as an objective political reality except as a weak link in the destabilizing arsenal of the incumbent authority. The new opposition coalition must however aim beyond 2027.While it can upstage Tinubu and his rabble in the immediate 2027 contest, the coalition must redefine Nigerian politics in a manner that incorporates more serious Nigerian technocrats, academics and civil society leaders as party members and think tanks.

The current stampede in the opposition camp is a positive development. It should point opposition politicians in the direction of the task ahead. For them to sit back and think that their isolated noise making will end the Tinubu infamy is the height of self-delusion. The work ahead is serious and tasking.