Yesterday 

In the understanding of ‘ethnicity as the expression of solidarity and common loyalty of peoples who share among themselves a country and a culture’- Chief Obafemi Awolowo was right to commit himself to the notion and evolution of ethnic solidarity among the Yoruba. To put it in his precise phrase “I would see to it that the Yoruba evolved an ethnic solidarity among themselves” Awolowo made this significant pledge at his departure from Nigeria to study law in the United kingdom, UK, in 1941. The vision was subsequently consummated with in the formation of the Egbe Omo Oduduwa in London in 1945 . 

The pre colonial Yoruba political unit (nation) that antedated Nigeria, holistically found political and constitutional expression; and sociological continuity in the egbe omo Oduduwa and ultimately the Western region of the Nigerian state until 1962. This development was in consonance with Dan Elazar’s postulation of a postmodern global trend in which there is a general movement from class-based to ethnic-based politics. 

Within the context of seeking political power in the ethno regional predicated Nigerian politics, it would have been unrealistic of the Egbe omo Oduduwa not to rouse and magnify the urgency of the ethnic mobilization of the Yoruba. Nationalism tends to remain quiescent until there is the need to activate it, the Egbe and the Yoruba found themselves with such a need in 1945.

The seed that germinated in the constructive confusion and identity instability of Afenifere (aka Action Group, AG) was presaged by the overlapping identities of the egbe and the AG. Of the same interpretation is the role of Awolowo as the founder of the two organisations, which further engendered the conflation of one with the other. 

Prior to the formation of the AG, the dominant party in the Western region was the National Council of Nigerian citizens, NCNC. It was the enlistment of the ethnic rally (what Awolowo called the “ethnic solidarity”) provided by the egbe that enabled the AG to turn the tide of political supremacy against the NCNC in the Western region. 

This trend was replicated in the other regions. It was a similar instrumentality of ethnic mobilization that accounted for the political dominance of the Northern Peoples Congress, NPC and NCNC in the Northern region and the Eastern region respectively. It was in recognition of this political pattern that recommended federalism as the most adaptable constitutional structure to the circumstances of Nigeria. 

Specific to the Yoruba, the legacy of its 19th century history, especially as represented by the Afonja/ Alimi syndrome, reduced the threshold and tolerance of the Yoruba for internal political squabble and disunity more so as it concerns any relationship with the Fulani dominated North. 

This background served the exclusionary purpose of the consolidation of the AG towards becoming the dominant party in the Western region. Awolowo and the AG were themselves not in a hurry to shed this pan Yoruba toga until 1959. “the open declaration of ideology did not come until 1959 when the party made public a document containing a statement of its ideology”. 

This was in deference to the imperative of projecting the AG as a national party in order to confer cosmopolitan panache on the ambition of Awolowo to become the Prime Minister of Nigeria. Needless to say that his position as leader of opposition equally required of him a pan Nigerian outlook. 

Upon the breakout of the AG crisis in 1962 and as it degenerated into his political isolation, Awolowo strategically and fervently sought to register the AG as a detribalised party in the collective consciousness of Nigerians. The short term compensation of this outreach was the alliance with the Igbocentric National Council of Nigerian Citizens, NCNC to form the United Progressives Grand Alliance, UPGA. 

The typical tendency for victims of political persecution to rebound in the martyrdom of the victim played out in favour of Awolowo among the Yoruba. 

The harbinger of the grand return of Awolowo to the pinnacle of Nigerian politics were the military coups of January and July 1966 respectively. Had the coup succeeded, the January Coupists said they were going to release Awolowo and make him the Prime Minister of Nigeria. 

In the attestation of Awolowo himself “In fact Akintola would not have been killed if he had behaved like fanikayode. When the soldiers came for him, if he had surrendered quickly they would have arrested him and he would have been safe, because the policy of the coup makers wasn’t to round up all politicians and bring them to dodan barracks. Then they were going to release me and we would have been brought to state house in Lagos to form an administration. If I had refused, they would have tried to govern in my name” 

In the event it was the counter coup and the return of another Northerner (Lieutenant Colonel Yakubu Gowon) as the head of the federal military government that resulted in his immediate release from prison. As we all know, this courtship was not altogether altruistic. It was calculated to secure the support of the Yoruba in the run up to the civil war. Hence Awolowo was given his freedom and enlisted to serve in the Federal military government of General Yakubu Gowon in the capacity of Federal Commissioner of finance and Vice Chairman of the Federal Executive Council. 

Given his ultimate ambition to contest for the office of Prime Minister he found himself in the albatross of the role that equates him and his leadership with the Yoruba. It is a role definition that exalts him but makes it difficult for him to secure political mileage outside the boundaries of Yoruba land. 

I’m on record as criticising him for quitting as Premier of the Western region in pursuit of the mirage of seeking the office of the Prime Minister of Nigeria.The momentum of the socioeconomic development of the Western region that had been generated by his leadership was on the upswing and needed to be consolidated.That purpose was best served by him remaining the Premier especially within the context of a dysfunctional Nigerian status quo that was constitutionally and structurally rigged against reformist minded politicians like him.

Today

Predictably, after the announcement of the earthly passage of the Afenifere leader Chief Ayo Adebanjo, there ensued a resurgence of efforts by well meaning Yoruba to broker reconciliation between the ‘Ayo Adebanjo’ and ‘Reuben Fasoranti’ factions. The typical entreaty from them was that the two factions should cease the moment as an opportunity to effect a reconciliation. 

I balked at the suggestion because it carries the implication that Adebanjo was the personification of the conflict, that it was a personality clash between him and the other group. It also betrays the subconscious inability of the Yoruba to accept the role definition of Afenifere as an ideological pressure group rather than a 21st century reincarnation of egbe omo Oduduwa.

In an audacious revisionist version of history, Chief Bisi Akande rhetorically assorted that Bola Ige was the founder of Afenifere. According to Akande  “The death of Bola Ige was the death of Afenifere. He found it and he took it away,” When the interviewer said “but Afenifere is not dead.” Akande said, “I don’t know but it is not the Afenifere we formed.” As far appellation goes, I can only recall Ige talking of egbe Ilosiwaju (or Itesiwaju) Yoruba not Afenifere. 

An indication that Afenifere is also not in a hurry to adhere to its definition as a political pressure group is it’s membership of the illustrious South and Middle-Belt Forum, SMBLF. The group comprises nationalist representatives of the Igbo (Ohaneze) , the Niger Delta (Pandef) and the Middle Belt (Middle-Belt Forum). These three organizations have consistently self-defined as sociocultural and nationalist umbrella of their respective regions.

They understand and frame Afenifere as a peer group. Alongside Afenifere they are commonly opposed to the Nigerian status quo and express equal commitment to the restoration of federalism. In this regard, they have fulfilled the criteria precedent to be cited as Progressives. 

Tomorrow

One important task that desperately requires a deliberate intervention by Afenifere is the cultivation of a successor generation. I had, many years ago, identified this problem (in my column at the Guardian newspaper) in a saucy article titled the ‘Young Shall Grow’. This was in response to what appears to be the drift of the Afenifere leadership towards gerontocracy. 

Subsequently, groups like Idile and alajobi rose to the challenge. The members of those groups are on their way to becoming the geriatrics of today leaving a vacuum that has not been meaningfully filled by another successor generation. The success of any society is dependent on how adequately it can fulfil renewal in leadership recruitment and reproduction of successor generations.

In a reflection of the adoption of ‘Democratic socialism’ as the ideology of the AG, Awolowo clarified this ideology in an interview with Peter Enahoro of the Daily times in 1982 as follows. “It has been said that because I bought a land of million Naira, I’m no longer a socialist. I don’t know where socialism advocated poverty and wretchedness. The whole purpose is to raise the status of all the people. It may be necessary by the process of taxation to take part of the wealth of the so-called wealthy people and give it to the government for use in the development of the masses of the people”. 

What can be extrapolated from this clarification is that Awolowo is not a doctrinare socialist. As a matter of fact, his clarification is theoretically interchangeable with the concept of ‘State Capitalism’. Following this trajectory and origin, Afenifere is a left of center ideological pressure group which will, at all times, logically find companionship with organisations or political parties that are ideologically opposed to the Nigerian status quo of a pseudo unitarist state. 

If Afenifere can be validly branded as of social welfarist ideological persuasion, it is equally important to note that more than any other value, what Awolowo bequeathed to the Yoruba and Nigeria is the legacy of competence, credibility and integrity not socialism or capitalism.

For instance, were Awolowo to wake up suddenly, he is not likely to recognise the bread and butter mockery of many who parade themselves as Afenifere. As the holy book says, by their deeds ye shall know them.

It is important to address certain misconceptions on the cause of poverty in Nigeria. On the account of the nation’s immense human and natural resources, Nigerians ought not to be associated with poverty. But poverty cannot be abolished in a capitalist country. For instance, 37.9 million (11.5%) of the residents live in abject poverty in the United States that is said to be the richest country in the world.

In justifying the harsh economic pains inflicted on the Nigerian people due to the zealous implementation of neoliberal economic policies, the federal government has blamed oil theft and smuggling of petroleum products as the cause of poverty in Nigeria. However, President Bola Tinubu has said that, “After the initial turbulence… the take-off was very cloudy and uncertain. Today, we see a light at the end of the tunnel.” Since we do not share in the optimism of the government, we are going to review the task of abolishing poverty in the country. 

The World Bank says that a poor person is anyone who lives on less than $2.15 (N3,440) a day. We all know that most Nigerians live on less than N3,440 per day.  In 2018, Nigeria was rated as the poverty capital of the world as about 87 million Nigerians fell into extreme poverty that year. In 2022, it was reported by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics that 133 million citizens had become “dimensionally poor.”  The World Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report has projected a grim future for Nigeria, with poverty expected to rise by 3.6 percentage points by 2027. 

Released during the ongoing IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, the report cites Nigeria’s reliance on oil, economic fragility, and governance challenges as key drivers. It highlights the country’s structural economic weaknesses, dependence on oil revenues, and national fragility as key barriers to meaningful poverty reduction.  

It has also been confirmed that Nigeria has been downgraded to the fourth position on the list of top African countries by gross domestic product (GDP). Nigeria’s GDP has plummeted to $188.27 billion. In the African continent, South Africa leads with a GDP of $410.34 billion, followed by Egypt at $347.34 billion, and Algeria at $268.89 billion.

The Premium Times has observed that “Nigeria, which until 2023 was the continent’s biggest, fell to the fourth position after two sharp devaluations of its currency shrank its GDP by more than half, causing the naira to lose roughly 70 per cent of its value against the dollar.”

As a result of the reckless devaluation of the currency, the business environment has become hostile as a result of rising interest rates and scarcity of forex needed to import raw materials and machinery.  According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, 335 manufacturing companies became distressed and 767 shut down in the year 2023 with hundreds of thousands of job losses. 

In a saner clime, political leaders, regardless of political party differences, would have united in addressing the grim picture of poverty and political instability painted by the World Bank, a vigorous supporter of the Tinubu administration. Instead of confronting the crisis of poverty headlong, the ruling party, (the All-Progressive Congress) is busy promoting political prostitution by receiving spineless defectors from other political parties to its fold. 

As the nation prepares for the 2027 general election, the ruling party has almost concluded arrangement to convert Nigeria to a one party state.  But have the leaders of the APC forgotten that General Sani Abacha’s dream of metamorphosing into a civilian president did not materialise even though he had been adopted by the five registered political parties? Did the leaders of the Peoples’ Democratic Party not boast of ruling the country for 60 years? 

Even though section 14 of the Nigerian Constitution stipulates that the State shall provide for the security and welfare of the people, poverty and insecurity are on the ascendancy in the country. Section 16 thereof outlines the economic objectives of the state. It directs the state to harness the nation’s resources, promote national prosperity, and establish an efficient, dynamic, and self-reliant economy. Additionally, it emphasizes the state’s responsibility to ensure that citizens have adequate shelter, food security, a reasonable minimum living wage, and social welfare benefits like old age care, unemployment benefits, and support for the disabled.

In utter violation of the economic objective of the State, the members of the ruling class have sold public enterprises and awarded oil blocks and licences for solid minerals to themselves. Thus, the State has engaged in concentrating the commonwealth in the hands of a few people contrary to the letter and spirit of the Constitution. However, some of those who lost out in the criminal diversion of the commonwealth through privatisation and award of oil blocks have engaged in the smuggling of solid minerals. 

Even though the members of the ruling class have conspired to make the fundamental objectives and direct principles of state policy non justiciable in any court, the struggle of the Nigerian people for dividends of democracy has compelled the State to adopt policies and enact a numbers of laws  that are designed to promote the welfare of the Nigerian people. 

The welfare laws include Pension Reforms Act, National Minimum Wage Act (yet to be implemented by 20 states), Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act, Employees Compensation Act, Factories Act, National Commission for Mass Literacy, Adult and Non- Formal Education Act, Child Rights Act in FCT and Child Rights Law in every state, Student Loans (Access to Higher Education) (Repeal and Re-enactment) Act, National Senior Citizens Act, Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act, Federal Mortgage Bank Act, National Housing Act, etc.

It is regrettable to note that the welfare laws are observed in breach by the Nigerian State to the detriment of the working people. For instance, the Child Rights Act and Child Rights Laws Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act have imposed a legal duty on the federal and state governments to ensure that every child is given free and compulsory education from primary school to junior secondary school. 

The immediate past Executive Secretary of UBEC, Dr. Hamid Bobboyi, during his presentation of the 2020 and 2023 budget implementation report to the Senate Committee on Basic and Secondary Education in Abuja, disclosed that N135,540,905,308.92 in matching grants have not been accessed by states in the last few years.

Owing to the refusal of state governments to contribute counterpart fund to access the matching grant of about N135 billion in the UBEC Account as stipulated by the law, Nigeria has 20 million out of school children. The Alliance on Surviving Covid-19 and Beyond (ASCAB) dragged the Federal Government and the 36 state governments to the Federal High Court seeking to compel them to comply with the education laws. Since there is no defence to the case, the defendants have challenged the locus standi of the plaintiffs to institute the action. 

Furthermore, the recent data released by the National Pension Commission show that total assets in the Nigerian Pension industry rose by 23% year-on-year to N22.5trn in December 2024. Instead of ensuring that pensioners are promptly paid their pension the federal government has borrowed N10 trillion from the fund. Worried over the concern of pensioners the house of representatives has resolved to recover the loan on the ground that most pensioners are unable to access their retirement funds despite complying with the requirements of the contributory pension scheme.

The House Committee was mandated to investigate the status of the pension fund assets of over N15.5 trillion with a view to ensuring that the N10 trillion loaned to the federal government from the pension fund is duly recovered and modalities are put in place to hinder the collapse of the pension schemes.

Under the Federal Mortgage Bank Act, workers are required to contribute to housing primarily through the National Housing Fund (NHF), where a mandatory 2.5% of their monthly salary is deducted and remitted to provide affordable housing loans to eligible workers. The contribution, together with other contributions from other lowly placed citizens, helps to fund the NHF.

The National Housing Fund (NHF), like other interventionist administering programmes, has become a subject of abuse and fraudulent practice. In November 2024, the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC) arraigned Mr. Gimba Ya’u Kumo, former chief executive officer, of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), for allegedly diverting $65 million housing fund. The money was for the construction of 962 units of residential houses at the Goodluck Jonathan Legacy City in Kubwa, a satellite town in Abuja.

The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress should closely monitor the trial and request the ICPC to investigate the allegation made in 2012 by Mr. Gimba Ya’u Kumo, that some “unscrupulous employers” had milked the fund dry to the tune of N100 billion. The NLC and the TUC owe workers a duty to ensure that the stolen sums of $65 million and N100 billion are recovered and utilised for building houses for workers. 

In spite of shortcomings and lack of independence, the anti-graft agencies have continued to record success in the recovery of looted wealth and other assets. In its 2024 report, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) detailed a breakdown of the sums recovered to include N364.5bn, $214.5m, £54,318.64, €31,265. Other recovered assets included the forfeiture to the Federal Government of over 753 duplexes and other apartments, the largest recovery by the Commission since its inception. 

In 2023, the EFCC recovered nearly N250 billion, along with millions in foreign currencies, including dollars and pounds sterling. On its part, the independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences (ICPC) recovered assets/cash worth N105.82 billion between 2023 and 2024. The Nigeria Customs Service, National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control etc.

The EFCC also stated in the report that some of the monetary recoveries have been reinvested by the Federal Government in initiatives that provide significant benefits to the Nigerian people. It cited the example of the N50bn granted by the Federal Government to the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), a programme launched in 2024 to provide interest-free loans to students in tertiary institutions. 

The EFCC reported that other recovered funds were being invested in development projects—such as improved roads, hospitals, and power supply—to elevate standards and support Nigeria’s long-term growth. The remaining funds that have been recovered are paid into the account of the Federal Government. 

In view of the fact that the recovered loot had been criminally diverted or re-looted in the past, it is suggested that a special account be opened for warehousing recovered loot. The proceed of such recovered loot should be earmarked to fix dilapidated educational institutions and medical facilities in the country. The 753 housing units recovered from a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria should be handed over to the Federal Mortgage Bank for completion and onward distribution to workers. 

It is not in dispute that the country has been beset with soaring inflation after the scrapping of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the exchange rate for the naira. Instead of reverting the dangerous economic policies the federal has continued to blame the unpatriotic elements that have engaged in crude oil theft and smuggling of fuel from Nigeria to neighbouring countries. It is our submission that the Federal Government is not prepared to end the economic sabotage due to the involvement of multinational oil companies and their local lackeys. 

A few months ago, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited announced that the Port Harcourt and Warri publicly owned refineries had resumed production while the Dangote Refinery said that it has the facilities to refine the entire fuel consumed in the country. But the Federal Government has continued to waste trillions of Naira on the importation of fuel from foreign countries. For instance, the media reported that between October 2024 and January 2025 (4 months), the nation spent a whopping sum of N5.5 trillion importing fuel, diesel and kerosene. 

Despite the removal of fuel subsidy, it has been confirmed by the Nigeria Customs Service that the smuggling of fuel from Nigeria to neighbouring countries has continued because it is sold at N2,000 whereas it is sold cheaper in Nigeria. Since the government is not prepared to stop the nefarious trade of fuel smuggling, another increase in the price of fuel may be in the offing. However, i wish to point out that the Federal Government’s efforts to end oil theft and smuggling of fuel have been frustrated by well-known public officers and multinational oil companies without any sanction. Permit me to provide some irrefutable evidence of such economic sabotage. 

In 2010, the Petroleum Equalisation Fund (Management) Board, said it would commence the electronic monitoring of petroleum products distribution from the first week in January 2011. The management of the Board said that officials of the Fund had been extensively trained and deployed to the over 50 depots operated by the PEF across the country to begin the implementation of the new business solution, termed ‘Project Aquila’ which aims to revolutionise products movement in the downstream subsector. It turned out that the officials were demobilised and prevented from monitoring the movement petroleum products distribution.

On 8th August 2018, the Federal Executive Council approved the installation of technology monitoring schemes and structures under the Petroleum Equalisation Fund (PEF) for N17 billion. Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, the then Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, disclosed that the deployment of the automated fuel system management and censor network would ensure 100 per cent tracking and monitoring of petroleum products. But the technology monitoring device was not installed while the N17 billion earmarked for it was criminally diverted. 

On July 13, 2024, the federal government awarded contracts of $21 million to ensure the full metering of Nigeria’s 187 oil flow stations as well as a software to track the movement of Nigeria’s oil in the high seas. The Minister of State, Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, stated that the move was to remove all doubts as to the quantity of oil that Nigeria produces on a daily basis as well as to be able to track crude oil to their expected destinations. 

In December 2019, the Directorate of Petroleum Resources (DPR) turned to French data firm Kpler, just six years old and staffed by a hundred mostly young employees, to help it ferret out the smugglers from the thousands of ships plying Nigerian waters. The head of Kpler partnership with Nigeria, Antoine Pillet said, “In some ways, we’re the CCTV of what’s going on in Nigerian waters. We provide the data, but don’t really give opinions on what may be going on.”

DPR’s Head of Public Affairs, Paul Osu, said: “This technology is a way of improving the way we do things. Of course there are problems here and there, but we don’t have inherent problems. Technology is the way to boost transparency of operations and improve investor confidence.”  

Apart from the above measures, the Federal Government awarded a contract of $144 per annum for pipeline surveillance, coastal protection, and safeguarding of critical infrastructure in the Niger Delta region. Meanwhile, the armed forces have deployed a task force to end oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta region within the shortest possible time. Despite the above measures put in place, the country still loses 400 000 barrels of crude oil valued at N2.39 trillion per day. A 2022 report by the Nigerian Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (NEITI) confirmed that about 619.7 million barrels of crude oil, valued at $46.16billion have been stolen in the last 12 years.

From to time, the involvement of the multinational oil and shipping companies has been exposed. But due to lack of political will on the part of the State to end oil theft, smuggling of fuel and solid minerals, poverty has increased in the land. At this juncture, it is pertinent to refer to specific cases of oil theft by the powerful oil cartel. Between 2011 and 2014, the federal government conducted investigation into the incessant oil theft. The House of Representatives too carried out an investigation into the heinous economic crime. 

Hon. Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonyinma, who was the chair of the House Committee which investigated the incidence of crude oil theft and made discoveries that are yet to be addressed, said: “The crude oil that landed in the United States port of Houston and port of Lake Charles, these are information produced by the US Customs – 391,141,049 million barrels, that is from Nigeria to the United States alone. We have the vessel numbers, we have the IMO number, we have the loading date, we have the loading order, we have the off-take date, off-take owner, off-take country and the number of barrels involved”.

Another investigation conducted by a team of Nigerian lawyers commissioned by the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), revealed that crude oil stolen from Nigeria and discharged in a port in Philadelphia was 60.2 million barrels of crude oil. The value was $12.7 billion. The well-known oil and shipping companies involved in the criminal enterprise have been treated like sacred cows by the federal government.

On October 6, 2022, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) disclosed that it had uncovered a four-kilometre illegal oil connection line from Forcados Terminal into the sea which had been in operation for nine years. The company’s chief executive officer, Mr. Mele Kyari, disclosed this at the Senate’s Joint Committees on Gas and Petroleum (Upstream and Downstream). He said that it was not clear how the line operated unnoticed for years but that the Forcados terminal is operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC).

The NNPCL said that the theft point extended from the Trans Escravos pipeline and that the Afremo platform, operated by the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited was the suspected exit point of the stolen crude. Although NNPCL promised to investigate the use of Shell pipeline for oil theft for 9 years, nothing has come out of the investigation. 

According to geo-scientific data, Nigeria’s solid minerals wealth is said to be worth about $750bn. The Minister of solid minerals development, Dr Oladele Alake has said by the time an accurate data exploration is completed, “trillions of naira will be a child’s play, and we will be nudging trillions of dollars.” But like the oil sector where the Government is losing billions of dollars annually to oil theft, solid minerals are equally stolen in billions on dollars in a sophisticated manner. 

Former minister of state for mines and steel development, Dr. Uche Ogah had revealed that about $9 billion worth of gold was smuggles from Nigeria annually through private jets. The serious allegation was never denied by the indicted private jet owners. In fact, the current Minister, Dr. Alake has corroborated Ogah’s position when he alleged that the powerful Nigerians behind illegal mining are also the ones sponsoring terrorism and banditry in the country. He also said that most of the foreigners engaged in illegal mining in the country had no proper immigration.

Notwithstanding the no-fly zone imposed on Zamfara state for security reasons, some private jets still land to steal precious stones with the connivance of top secured officers. Apart from involvement in terrorist activities, the criminals are also engaged in environmental pollution of mining sites. But like the powerful people involved in oil theft the criminal justice system is too weak to arrest the owners of private jets who are involved in smuggling of solid minerals out of Nigeria.

In February this year, the Ilorin Zonal Command of the EFCC arrested 41 suspects and impounded 12 trucks for their alleged involvement in illegal mining and possession of different types of solid minerals without appropriate licences. Most of the suspects are Chinese nationals. The Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, has said gold mined in the country is being exported illegally to the United Arab Emirates. The federal government ought to have enlisted the support of the UAE authorities to end the smuggling of gold from Nigeria. 

CONCLUSION 

The removal of fuel subsidy, devaluation of the national currency as well as oil theft, smuggling of fuel and solid minerals have compounded the crises of poverty and underdevelopment. We have proven that the Nigerian State is not committed to the eradication of oil theft and smuggling of solid minerals. It is left for Nigerians to demand the provision of dividends of democracy include the huge revenue from the nation’s enormous mineral resources. 

Since the Tinubu administration has no solution to the crisis of poverty, insecurity and unemployment, security forces have unleashed violence on peaceful protesters. During the #endbadgovernance of August 2024, many protesters including children were arrested and charged with treason. To cow citizens to silence, critics are arrested, detained and charged with criminal defamation and cybercrime offences.

While it is gratifying to note that Nigerians are prepared to challenge the reactionary forces that are holding the country down, the Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress should organise workers to ensure that all welfare laws are enforced in the overall interests of the oppressed people. As shown in this presentation, the fundamental objectives and directive principles of state policy have been made non justiciable by the ruling class. It is only through a political struggle that the democratic rights of the Nigerian people can be actualized and made justiciable. That is not possible under a peripheral capitalist system. Therefore, the task before genuine forces of change is to mobilise the people to abolish all forms of poverty in the land through the socialist reconconstruction of the society.

Dr Bukola Saraki evokes the figure of the idle king in Tennyson’s Ulysses—a man who has known both triumph and adversity, surrounded at times by loyal allies and, at others, by no one at all. His political career is a study in momentum: within three decades, he rose from a senior executive role at a major bank to serve two terms as governor of Kwara State, entered the Senate in 2011, and, by 2015, had engineered his way to the presidency of the Nigerian Senate. Few Nigerian politicians have climbed faster or maneuvered more deftly. Yet by 2019, the machinery seemed to grind to a halt, leaving Saraki unmoored, a veteran leader without an obvious battlefield.

“How dull it is to pause, to rust unburnished, not to shine in use,” the poem says. The line could easily serve as a reflection on Saraki’s current predicament. Since 2011, he has harbored presidential ambitions and remained a key player on the national stage. Even after his tenure as governor ended, he maintained an iron grip on Kwara’s politics, quietly orchestrating events behind the scenes for another eight years. But ambition, once deferred, demands a new urgency, and in the shifting tides of Nigerian politics, staying quiet is the quickest way to be forgotten.

For all the talk about it being the turn of the South to rule for eight years, the only geopolitical zone to never actually produce a Nigerian president is the Middle-Belt; and for all the compelling talk about an Igbo presidency, at least history acknowledges Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was president of Nigeria until the coup of 1966. Saraki’s path, and the Middle-belt region’s exclusion, demand a more serious reckoning in the national conversation. Whether that conversation should be taking place towards 2027 is debatable; but even more uncertain is whether the answer lies within the PDP, the party where Saraki now holds fort. 

Saying it plainly, Saraki has an Atiku problem, and it’s been years in the making. He has had that problem since 2019 when he agreed to be the director general of the former vice president’s campaign, instead of focussing his energies on returning to the senate and consolidating his hard-fought power there. This distraction proved very costly, blindsiding him from the changing landscape back home and the blitzkrieg campaign of the otoge movement that established the APC – to which Saraki himself switched his state political machinery in 2015 – as the dominant power in the state for the tenth year. And with Atiku’s daily posturing on X, along with his body language and loud trumpeting about a coalition ahead of 2027, it seems the old man, who will be 80 next year, may be gearing up for yet another presidential run, his sixth since 2007. 

Saraki is also grappling with what political observers might call a Hillary Clinton-problem, not a matter of personality, but of public perception, and the baggage that comes with long years in the arena. Here is a man who was one of Nigeria’s most successful governors, who led arguably Nigeria’s most independent Senate, who comes from a political dynasty that has endured for over half a century, and who, by Nigerian standards, is still young. On paper, it should be a no-brainer for the party to rally around him and put him forth to Nigerians as a strong choice. This has yet to happen. And while a presidential candidate historically has only one shot as the party’s flagbearer, PDP has stuck with one man twice and failed, monumentally damaging its own prospects with its internal crises since 2022. After eight years of Buhari, it was clear Nigerians were eager for a new direction. But instead of uniting, the party effectively fielded three presidential candidates across three different parties, handing the APC a clear path to victory. Ironically, all three later claimed they had won, when in reality, they had simply cancelled one other out, and been outmaneuvered by Mr. Tinubu, who became president, fair and square. 

Which brings us to our next point about Saraki. This is probably the only politician who has actually played the kind of high stakes politics we witnessed ahead of the 2023 elections and won. In 2015, with the odds stacked against him, Saraki pulled off a political masterstroke live on television. He outmaneuvered his own party, the APC, a sitting president, and the party’s national leader – all of whom were backing their preferred candidate, Ahmad Lawan – and emerged as Senate President. If there was ever a day on which Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was truly outfoxed, it was this. Resilience is the main currency of Nigerian politics and BukolaSaraki is among its shrewdest practitioners. After seizing the Senate presidency against the wishes of his own party, he spent the next four years under siege from corruption charges at the Code of Conduct Tribunal to investigations by the EFCC and repeated threats of arrest. Few would dispute that Saraki emerged with his political capital largely intact; battle-scarred, perhaps, but wiser for the experience and still very much a player. 

This resilience, however, is a double-edged sword. In Nigeria, political longevity often breeds suspicion and Saraki’s survival has added to the perception that he is a man too skilled at the dark arts of power for a nation that increasingly demands transparency. He may well position himself for another shot at national leadership, but his challenge is no longer just to win his party’s nomination, but to redirect attention to what he has accomplished in the decades since he was only a 37-year-old adviser to former President Obasanjo.  

Dr. Saraki has mostly stayed on the sidelines of the PDP’s internal crisis, only recently breaking his silence after the shocking defection of the Delta State political structure to the APC, an event that ended over two decades of PDP dominance in the oil-rich state. With confusion mounting and the party’s foundation steadily eroding, he has begun to demonstrate the kind of leadership the PDP urgently needs by calling for calm and rallying the troops. 

Saraki wants the presidency, but a vice-presidential slot would still represent a step up from his previous role as Senate President. It would place him within striking distance of the highest office, while allowing him to consolidate alliances for the future. His ambitions are not unique. By 2027, it will be twenty years since Alhaji Atiku Abubakar first began his now endless quest for the presidency, an odyssey marked more by defeat and frustration. The space Atiku occupies is increasingly seen as fully exhausted, a fact that younger politicians like Saraki should be keen to exploit. Meanwhile, figures like Peter Obi present a different kind of challenge. A paradigm of clawing self-interest, Obi has demonstrated a willingness to shift loyalties in pursuit of advantage and will likely move again to whichever platform best secures his footing ahead of 2027. 

At the end of the day, it is hard-nosed pragmatism, not sentiment, that may decide the next contest. Today’s purveyors of the great coalition are simply too angry and too bitter to make any sound judgements against a ruling party unlikely to give up power easily in two years. 

Saraki should step up and lead, but he must do so with caution. The trap of the idle king looms large: a former governor and former Senate president, still too young to be an elder statesman, yet at risk of becoming a relic of the past. Our political culture punishes hesitation; therefore Bukola Sarakimust choose whether to seize the day or be remembered merely as one who almost did.

–Owope writes from Lagos.

There was dancing and rejoicing when Mele Kyari announced with glee that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) had pulled through and what seemed impossible to the doubting Thomases and pessimists had become possible. The Warri Refinery machines were set to roar back to life. Kyari, the Group’s former Chief Executive Officer, beating his chest in triumph, on 30 December, led journalists on a tour of the facility in Warri. It was an event witnessed by stakeholders, comprising marketers in particular. He said on the occasion about the reactivation this column regarded trustingly as a New Year gift by NNPCL: “If you see the plant you will see the reality yourself. This plant is running; we have not completed it 100 per cent, but we are still in the process; we are on the other part of the plant as we progress, but currently this plant is running. You will see what is happening now and we are bringing products to the market.” He went on: “There are many people who don’t think this is real. People don’t believe real things can happen in our country. We believe that this is right for our country and all of us have a stake, including the media so this can become a greater place as it is already happening.” Turning to the journalists he said: “We want you to see that everything is real. I must congratulate our team for their determination and extreme belief that this company can restart this plant. This has brought the result we are seeing in collaboration with our contractors. We have proved that it is possible to restart a plant that you deliberately shut down. We have proved this.”

However, former President Olusegun Obasanjo hissed. He was swift in pouring cold water on our spirit, expressing serious doubts about the celebrative health feat of the refineries, both Warri and Port Harcourt. And what is the situation today about four months after the hallelujah chorus? According to a regulatory authority document a national newspaper sighted, the Warri Refinery has been shut down since 25 January, 2025. And Port Harcourt plant which resumed operation in November last year, just about a month before Warri has been operating below 40 per cent capacity. I will come back to this presently.

Commenting on the refurbishment of Warri Refinery, this column stated as follows on 11 January in the piece captioned ‘Fuelling Doubts’: “The ding-dong between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the NNPCL is good, disturbing as it may seem on the surface. It is a wake-up clarion call to NNPCL. The nation has suffered enough in its hands. The argument that may be seen as degenerating into a brickbat is still over the state of the refineries.

“The group chief executive officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Mele Kyari, announced to the nation on 30 December, 2024, that Warri Refinery had been successfully, though partially, refurbished and was roaring back to life. The New Year gift by NNPCL to the nation took everybody by surprise, coming this soon after the old Port Harcourt refinery was reactivated and it became operational. Despite the stage of rehabilitation, it will produce 60 per cent of its installed capacity, which is 125, 000 barrels per day. GCOE Mele Kyari said with glee: “If you see the plant, you will see the reality yourself. This plant is running…”

The Punch comprehensive report on the state of the two refineries on Tuesday, however, does not give much signal for cheer in the horizon—provided the new helmsman, Bayo Ojulari, rolls up his sleeves and charts his own totally new course, and moves away from broken promises of the past.

The column did state: “Former President Obasanjo, who is not known to shrink from controversies, has thrust his chest out to count among ‘people who don’t think this is real’, that is, given his stature he is not perturbed if he is seen as leading the Doubting Thomases. He was swift in expressing doubts about the health feat of the refineries. He anchored his reservations on the aphoristic parable of a farmer and the size of his farm during planting season. The farmer made the world to believe that he had a large cultivation of yams. He boasted that he planted 200 yam mounds, whereas all he had were 100 heaps. At harvest the truth will inexorably catch up with him.

“So, if anybody tells you that they (the refineries) are working, why are they not with Aliko in the market? Aliko will make his own refinery work. Not only make it work, he will make it deliver”, Obasanjo said sarcastically.

“Whether we announce our own government refineries are working or not working, look, it is like they say in Yoruba adage, ‘the man who plants 100 heaps of yams and says he planted 200 heaps, they say after he has harvested 100 heaps of yam, he will harvest 100 heaps of lies.’

In response, however, the NNPCL leadership sure of itself, or so it appeared, said it would be pleased to have Obasanjo as a guest to be taken round the plants to see things for himself.

As I did state at the time, given Obasanjo’s standing and public acclaim, and his own familiarization with the company as a former President, it is inconceivable that he would make comments on matters of this nature and on the company’s operations without intelligence reports and without gathering information from competent sources connected with the refineries. The former President was not the only person who harboured doubts. Some experts in the oil industry believed it must have been a miracle to succeed in bringing the refineries back to life. One said at the time: ‘We wait and see.’

Obasanjo hinged part of his doubts on his discussions with Shell that he had invited, while in the saddle, to take interest in running the refineries but Shell turned down the offer. One of the four reasons Shell gave was that there was too much corruption around the activities of our refineries and they would not want to get involved. They gave other reasons bordering on the productive capacity of the refineries which Shell considered too small.

NNPCL on its part allayed fears saying it had expanded beyond oil and gas to become an integrated energy company. The company went further to explain that what had taken place was not the accustomed Turn Around Maintenance (TAM), but a comprehensive overhaul. It was a comprehensive overhaul designed to meet what it described as world-class standards. And Chief Corporate communications officer of NNPCL, Olufemi Soneye reinforced enheartening hopes and expectation by reminding the nation that NNPCL was no longer a government corporation. “Today,” he said, “NNPC Limited is a private entity that has transitioned from being a loss-making organization to becoming a profit -oriented global energy leader.”

Far back as 04 August, 2021, the Buhari Administration approved $1.48billion (US Dollars) for the rehabilitation of both Warri and Kaduna refineries, $897million for Warri and $586 million for Kaduna. For Warri, the rehabilitation was in phases of first, 21 months; then 23 months and the last 33 months.

As of the time of the announcement of the reactivation, the assurance of the readiness of the refinery to produce Premium Motor Spirit alias PMS but more widely known as petrol was glossed over, which was the major product the generality of Nigerians was ardently longing to have. ThisDay gave the hint that as of the time Mele Kyari and his team were on tour of the plant the refinery was going through a “test-run of its refining processes, and Naphtha had yet to be transferred to the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit for production of Premium Motor Spirit, (PMS) that is petrol or gas.

This column did admonish NNPCL to see any lingering doubts as expressed by former President Obasanjo and some experts in the oil industry as burden and a challenge they must quickly discharge. Indeed, the doubts must be seen as energy tonic to fasten belts and to fire them to disabuse the mind of everybody and prove the Doubting Thomases wrong, and beat their chest that the two refineries, Port Harcourt producing 75 per cent of 150,000 barrels a day and Warri producing at 60 per cent of 125, 000 barrels are back on stream. Were the claims to prove Obasanjo right and end as a hoax, not after President Bola Tinubu has described the development in Warri as a historic milestone, it would be the biggest scandal of the century.

NNPCL did not appear to have heeded my warning: Alas, Obasanjo may have been proven right. Pray that we may not witness all turning out a hoax after all!! Otherwise, how do you explain Warri Refinery being shut down barely three weeks its reactivation was celebrated–greeted with so much noise-making, glamour and laudation, especially by Bola Tinubu. NNPCL said what they did in Warri was total overhauling. Now it is a new song: The plant is undergoing repairs for efficient service delivery and ensuring optimal operations. It was a routine maintenance programme. That was in in February. “On January 25, 2025”, according to NNPCL in a statement, “operations at WRPC Area 1 were intentionally curtailed to carry out necessary intervention works on select equipment, including field instruments that were impacting sustainable and steady operations. These intervention works are essential to ensure the production of specification finished and intermediate products, particularly Automotive Gas Oil and Kerosine. The routine maintenance is progressing as planned, and 1t will be back in operation within the next few days.”

Listen to the President when Mele Kyari announced the return of Warri facility to production following the successful completion of its reactivation: “The restart of Warri Refinery today brings joy and gladness to me” Bubbling with excitement, he said that now that the reactivation of Warri had been accomplished, attention should shift to Kaduna Refinery and kick it also back to life. In the case of Port Harcourt when it rolled back to life in November, the elated President said the refinery coming back on stream would contribute towards energy sufficiency, ensuring energy security, and raise, indeed, enhance export capacity. He saw it as being in alignment with his vision of what is touted unceasingly as Renewed Hope Agenda which is focused on shared economic prosperity for all. Stakeholders are expressing dishevelment and concerned that despite years of investment, little tangible results have come out of the refineries. Production has been erratic, up today, down tomorrow. Hardly does it exceed 42.23 percent of its installed capacity in six months. They have described the situation as disconcerting and pressed for holistic staff review.

I do hope the new captains in the different refineries will realise that all eyes are on them; and will remove the stain on the NNPCL raiment with dispatch. They cannot afford to let the nation down! Warri Refinery shutting down so soon will be seen as scandal enough to alarm the nation after humongous $897.6million was expended to bring it back to production. In some quarters, the rehabilitation of both refineries is already been described as a scandal.

THE SPATE OF DEFECTIONS
I have followed the gale of defections by governors, commissioners and ranking politicians in parts of the country, particularly recent ones in Delta State. According to reports, the likeable governor of Akwa Ibom State who has admirably taken after his predecessor, Udom Emmanuel, in terms of resourcefulness, hard work and unremitted application to set goals, is rehearsing. I am referring to no other than Mr. Umo Eno. The world will soon hear from him when he finishes warming up. For now, the world is waiting with baited breath.

Those who have crossed the line from PDP to APC are the governor of Delta State, Mr, Sheriff Francis Oborevwori with his deputy and his predecessor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and their supporters. The PDP structure was dismantled. The defection leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. The most disgusting is that of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa who in 2023 missed only by a hair’s breadth being the Vice-President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the platform of PDP. And come to think of it, the defection Oborevwori called a movement was framed in triumphal jollity and shameless celebration. To receive the defectors were the Vice-President, Kashim Shettima and Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC national chair, undoubtedly bubbling with fixation on 2027, who only see this, not as a debasement of our polity and of the lofty tone of our environment, but rather as building up a rich harvest of votes. They cannot see the consequences of raising a future generation bereft of principles who will show utmost contempt for honour and wholesomeness as well as dignified carriage, above all wholesomeness of our people and our land.

David Umahi then Governor of Ebonyi State, now the Minister of Works, again a dedicated administrator and resourceful engineer, defected from PDP to the APC, the step ladder he used to climb to the high office of the state governor. He got away with it. About the same time Professor Ayade, governor of Cross River did the same. Justice Ekwo, a “reincarnation” of Conrard Idowu Taylor (J.I.C.), learned, true and courageous, asked Omahi and his deputy to vacate their office and return their mandate to the PDP that gave them the step ladder to their positions. because his electors were PDP the mandate they gave to him was on the platform of PDP. The higher court looking only at the letters of the law, and not the spirit, nor the loud and disarming wisdom undergirding the Justice’s pronouncement, overturned the judgment, arguing that the grundnom spells out procedures to go through to remove a governor. Who could have envisaged that any senior government functionary at that level would without qualms abandon the platform that saw them to the highest echelon of governance in the state? The framers of the constitution did not in the widest of their dreams, did not think that a governor would leave his party for another without first honourably resigning. Since there have been no consequences for such disgraceful behaviour, the shamelessness continues with increasing converts.

And so, the truism rings loud and clear: A shameless people cannot be embarrassed! Where there is no shame the word propriety has no meaning. The society becomes a world of anything goes in which the thick line between right and wrong is blurred. And the argument ensues that the the words good and bad are subjective when in fact they are absolute: What is good is good and what is bad is bad and we can all feel them to our fingertips. What we are witnessing everywhere is the state of our collective inner being despite our vaunted religiousity: Hollow!