HIS venture of taking down Tinubu in 2027 does not sound profitable to me. I don’t know how the planners want to do it anyway. But before he died in 2020, my father used to advise me to only engage in fruitful business. If he were to be around, I would have gone back to tell him that, Papa, all the businesses in Nigeria, except poli-tics, illegal mining of solid minerals like gold in Zamfara, oil theft in the Niger Delta, kidnapping and naked banditry, have become unprofitable. Feel free to ask anyone who is doing any business outside this range, including Aliko Dangote, to verify what I am saying.

Therefore, if it is in the context of politics being among the few thriving businesses in today’s Nigeria that the company to purportedly seize Aso Rock from Tinubu in 2027 has been incorporated outside the Corporate Affairs Commission, I will understand and even encourage the shareholders to double efforts. After all, wealth acquisition has also been democratised in Nigeria. It comes even in more ways than hard work. It is not like Christian theology where the way to heaven is just one narrow and rough path.

But if what is currently afloat is politics in the strict sense of creating the attendant intrigues for power grab, I would sincerely wish to advise the players, like my father advised me, to recalibrate and refocus. People have started travelling up and down to Ota, Minna and other places for meetings to plan the take-over of Aso Rock in 2027 as if it is Ojota motor-park in Lagos that they want to take over. Well, the Bible [and I guess the Qu’ran does too] teaches us that with God all things are possible. This is true.

But it is also true that a chunk of Christian and Islamic theology underscores the imperativeness of individual responsibility in the divine scheme. It means the grace is not as gratuitous as we think.

That God or Allah does not descend into the earthly arena of play to fix what we can fix as umpires and players.

Let’s get it straight. Is it the same Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is also called Asiwaju, Jagaban, Senator, ex-Governor and now President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that these people are talking of dislodging from the most privileged height? Or some look-alike of him or a fellow, who happens, in an unusual coincidence, to share the same first, middle and last names with him, that is in contemplation? I want to say that it is not today that the efforts to stop Tinubu in his track started. For instance, his emergence as the candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the 1999 governorship election in Lagos State was not without a subtle battle. He won the cold war against the more formidable late Funsho Williams.

Within the Southwest in the 1999 – 2003 dispensation, governorship tickets, as well as the presidential and other tickets of the AD, were by affirmation and not competition. The tickets were for Afenifere to allocate as it deemed fit and not for the strongest contenders to grab. This was against the backdrop of the coordinated struggles, especially in the South West, to dislodge the military after its criminal annulment of the 1993 presidential election which the late Chief M.K.O Abiola won, and return the country to a democratic rule. And so, when democracy finally berthed in 1999, it became payback time for people who did more than the ordinary to contain the military and bring about democracy.

I wouldn’t know how the ranking was done. But Tinubu, rightly or wrongly, was put in this class of high pro-democracy perform-ers. He was said to have contributed handsomely to the funding of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), the arrow-head of the pro-democracy struggles while on a self-imposed exile in the United States to escape Abacha’s persecution. Accordingly, the sentiments flowed in his advantage. Afenifere also believed that compensating Tinubu with the Lagos State governorship was the least that could be done for a seemingly proven Yoruba patriot.

Meanwhile, nothing about Tinubu betrayed his inner strength or thinking. The decoy was perfect. The high degree of Machiavellian ruthlessness and invincibility in political battles that has been on display since his coronation as Governor of Lagos State by Afenifere, was not in any way foreseen. Even so, Afenifere had acted in utmost good faith. It was just that Tinubu had his game plan properly worked out. He wanted to become an emperor and needed the 1999 political take-off grant by Afenifere and nothing more, to conquer and conquer. He had stooped very low, including accepting to be yoked by a non-align female deputy just to earn the grant. I guess, he would have sworn too, after that ex-perience, to work hard to retain all the ace cards and increase his confidence in the unfolding game. He understands that to remain a king forever, the king must kill the kingmaker. He didn’t like the idea of being called to order by any commanding voice. Only the voice of Afenifere had that commanding tone. One way to tone down Afenifere is to cause it to replicate a Renewal version and other versions that can detract from the original.

That was successfully achieved, touching off a radical reversal of roles. Instead of Afenifere dictating to Tinubu, as it was before his inauguration as Governor in 1999, it has been the other way round The old and renewed versions of the organisation have not agreed once on a common position regarding the political ambition of Ti-nubu. If the old says no, the new will say yes and vice versa. And since it is the same Afenifere that is manifesting in more than one way like the Holy Trinity, Tinubu usually follows the manifestation that feeds his purpose. For instance, in 2023, he did not follow the old group which said it was the turn of the South East to produce the president of Nigeria. He went with the renewal version whose voice sounded sweet; saying he could continue after Obasanjo and Osinbajo and the heavens would not fall.

He has always taken a step at a time. In 2003, Obasanjo, who became President in 1999 without home support, needed to cultivate one in the 2003 electoral outing. The deal, on one hand, was for the PDP to have its way in the presidential election so that Obasanjo could become a prophet with honour at home. On the other hand, and by way of reciprocating the nice gesture, President Obasanjo would hold back the deployment of the well known and accepted federal might in national politics, from creating upsets in the governorship election in the six South West States of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo. In summary, it was agreed that the eagle would perch and the six kites would perch too.

But the deal was not that transparent. Tinubu who is also deft in con artistry, understands when a dealer is up to no good. He saw through the OBJ scheme and pulled back. When the owner identifies and takes back his stolen goat at the point of sale in the open market, the thief does well to remain silent. Obasanjo allowed the scheme to run without Lagos. In the end, Tinubu became the only man standing in the PDP-induced tsunami that swept through the South West in 2003.This was the first dependable signal that the Jagaban was not ordinary in the game of intrigues.

Both Tinubu and Obasanjo left office in 2007. But while one went into gathering and building a political empire, the other went into scattering and destroying even the little he had spent time and effort to built. In eight years, Tinubu was able to recover the fallen South West for a good bargain with Muhammadu Bu-hari in 2015. On the flip side, Obasanjo in eight years was able to mobilise like-minds like Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and others to destroy the PDP. He even made a big spectacle in Ota of the destruction of his PDP membership card. Tinubu spent time outside power; between 2007 and 2023, a whole 16 years, working for more power. And he got what he worked for. That is what my late father called profitable trade which people should engage in and not the type of fruitless venture that some people are planning against 2027.

Everyone knew where Tinubu was headed but no one could stop him. For decades he postured as a democrat, progressive and activist but even Afenifere could not exercise the due diligence to unmask him. When he was just a mere unprofiled pro-democracy activist without any form of lethal powers, he could not be stopped from becoming Governor of Lagos State. And after finishing as governor, those who claim to own Lagos, including Chief Olabode George, could not stop the foreigner from Osun State from continuing as Governor through proxies till date.

The Buhari Presidency that Tinubu decisively assisted in creating never wanted him to succeed Buhari. But the same Tinubu, in the build up to 2023, went to Abeokuta to state, clear and loud, and without any fear of being contradicted, the Emilokan Project. The APC did not say it was not the turn of Tinubu. President Buhari couldn’t invoke some executive order as President Trump is doing in America, to stop Tinubu in his track. Instead, everybody marked time until Tinubu contested and won the presidential elections according to INEC and the Supreme Court.

His names, even till now, spells doubt on account of the many stories of crime around him. He is this and that! Yet af-ter losing immunity as Governor, the Attorney-General of the Federation under a PDP government did not file a criminal charge against him. Also, none of the Attorneys-General in the 36 states did anything to reinforce the public perception.

Persons and institutions that should conduct a proper character audit slept off, while Tinubu remained awake for16 good years, scheming for the realisation of May 29, 2023 in his life.

The worst that ever happened to him, was his appearance at the Code of Conduct Tribunal to answer charges of false declaration of assets. He scaled the hurdle and re-entered Bourdillon, Lagos, from Abuja, as the real lion, conqueror, emperor and champion. The Federal Government under President Goodluck Jonathan was boxed into an underdog and appeared diminished in the ensuing optics.

In the 1999 Class of Governors, Tinubu stands very tall and alone. Nobody comes close, except, perhaps, Chief James Onanefe Ibori of Delta State, who, in spite of tra-vails, has managed to hold together part of his political clan. Others have been on a steady downward curve of devaluation; moving between being senators, ministers and errand boys to the executive at the Federal and State levels. And so, if you ask me, I will give it to Tinubu. He has exercised a superior acumen over the Nigerian State and its agents. He has worked so hard to convert tall names and his erstwhile principals into his die-hard fans. Pa Adebisi Akande, Pa Segun Osoba and even the respected Professor do not say to him. I think he should be applauded.

Aziza is the unparalled forest spirit in Urhobocosmol-ogy. No entity contests the ownership of the forest with it. Tinubu has strengthened into the Aziza of national politics. He should just be allowed to dissipate in eight years instead of incurring his wrath. Aziza also loves roaming large in incredible strides. It moves in a hur-ricane, tornado or any other fearsome storm and can cover kilometres just in a stride. Nothing stands in its way. It brings down everything including houses in its path. Those who must obstruct Aziza must invite the obo (native doctor) to offer a sacrifice that would be accepted for Aziza to stride over built-up areas without wrecking destruc-tion. This is where we are with Tinubu. If you fail to uproot the Iroko when it is unknown, you will take sacrifices to it when it becomes known and established.

“The judiciary,…. has no influence over either the sword or the purse; no direction either of the strength or of the wealth of the society; and can take no active resolution whatever. It may truly be said to have neither force nor will, but merely judgment.”

Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist, No. 78.

In January 1983, a suspicious fire incident did considerable damage to NECOM House, the high-rise building in Lagos that housed the headquarters of the country’s telecommunications monopoly, then known as the Nigerian Telecommunications Limited, NITEL. Alhaji Shehu Shagari was in power as elected civilian president. The belief was widespread that the fire was the handiwork of “senior officials in the building (who) had been under investigation for fraud and embezzlement that police estimated at more than $100 million.” 

The NECOM House fire was another in a succession of high-profile incidents with a whiff of arson affecting public infrastructure in the country. The previous month, another fire had consumed the Ministry of External Affairs, reportedly “set by accountants who were under investigation.”

Casualty count from the NECOM House fire incident was substantial but uncertain. By some coincidence, the fire occurred the week after the fire-fighting team at the facility had been inexplicably withdrawn.

The response of the federal authorities was even more inexplicable. The 21 persons whom they chose to prosecute in connection with the incident included Ray Ekpu, at the time a senior journalist and columnist, whose crime appeared to be that he published an article after the incident suggesting that it was arson.

Also charged were Adamu Akokhia, Chief Fire Officer of the Federation; and Saidu Garba, the Divisional Fire Officer responsible for the building. While they were suspects in pending criminal proceedings, the federal authorities also suspended Adamu Akokhia and Saidu Garba from work.

Saidu Garba sued at the High Court of Lagos State challenging his suspension. While his case was still pending, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, John Oyegun, issued a letter sacking him from the public service.

Informed of this development, the presiding judge, Yahaya Jinadu, summoned John Oyegun to appear before him and explain why he should not be held in contempt of court. The judge subsequently found Mr. Oyegun guilty of contempt, cautioned him and required him to withdraw the letter of termination issued to Saidu Garba while his case was pending.

Despite the forbearance of the court, Mr. Oyegun failed to comply. On 3 August 1984, the court ordered his lawyer to secure compliance by his client with the order or cease participation in the proceedings until he complied. By this time, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari was in his eighth month in power as military ruler, having overthrown Shagari.

Five days later, on 8 August, then Chief Judge of Lagos State, Adetunji Adefarasin, summarily withdrew the case file from Yahaya Jinadu and reassigned it to himself, claiming that he did so at the request of the trial judge. Yahaya Jinadu denied ever having made such a request to the Chief Judge.

While Yahaya Jinadu was on pilgrimage to Mecca shortly thereafter, the Advisory Judicial Committee (AJC), then chaired by Chief Justice Sodeinde Sowemimo (the same one who infamously convicted Obafemi Awolowo two decades earlier), constituted a committee “that curiously condemned his actions and asked him to make written and verbal apologies” to, among others, the federal attorney-general, the President of the Court of Appeal, and the Chief Judge of Lagos State. Unwilling to abide an order which he characterised as “humiliation and disgrace of the judiciary”, Yahaya Jinadu served the statutory sixty-day notice of his intention to resign as a judge. In response, the regime terminated his judicial career summarily.

For being acutely aware of the duty to conserve the currency of judicial authority and being prepared to defend that, Yahaya Jinadu paid a heavy price with his career. Those who traduced him set in motion a deadly corrosion of judicial authority whose inter-generational consequences today endanger the very foundations of both the institution and the country.

Two contemporaneous events this past week dramatized how badly so. Addressing judges at the beginning of the week at a continuing judicial education event in Abuja, the Federal Capital, Chief Justice of the Federation, Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, complained about deepening public distrust of the judiciary, reminding her colleagues that “it is not enough to be impartial; we must also be seen to be impartial. The perception of bias or impropriety can be as damaging as the reality itself.”

At about the same time as the Chief Justice uttered them, these sentiments were on trial at another end of town. The Federal High Court in Abuja was the venue of the now viral contretemps between Nnamdi Kanu, self-proclaimed leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPoB), on the one hand; and the presiding judge, the lead prosecutor, and even his own team of lawyers, on the other. If anything was more troubling than the conduct of Mr. Kanu in that outing, it was the self-inflicted lack of judicial authority to firmly put a stop to it.

To be sure, there are ample provisions in the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) empowering courts to preserve their authority or act against the disruption of their proceedings. A judge for a quarter of a century and a state attorney-general before that, the one charge that cannot possibly be made against the presiding judge in this case is inexperience. So, why was the court, nevertheless, so craven?

On 24 September 2024, she had ruled in respect of the same proceedings concerning Mr. Kanu that: “The root of adjudication is confidence. The defendant has no confidence in this court. Consequently, I hereby recuse myself from this trial and hereby remit the case file to the Chief Judge for further necessary action.” Three weeks later, it was reported that the Chief Judge decided administratively to overrule the trial judge’s recusal and return the case file to her.

There are, however, two problems with this decision. First, as a matter of law, the Chief Judge may be a first among his peers but he is no paramount chief at large. His powers do not extend to administratively overruling a written decision of a judge sitting as such. Second, as a practical matter, a judge who by her own hand rules to recuse herself from proceedings after affirming cratered confidence in her handling of the proceedings cannot allow herself to be bullied or inveigled into attempting to ingest her judicial vomit.

The coincidence of these two developments almost assuredly denied the court of its constitutive authority, making it a passenger in that piece of execrable judicial theatre.

The standard under the 1999 constitution is that a court shall be constituted “in such a manner as to secure its independence and impartiality.” A judge cannot return to claim impartiality and independence after having gone on record to recuse herself for having lost the confidence of the defendant. A forum in that setting hardly deserves the appellation of a court.

Nigeria’s 1999 constitution speaks loosely of “judicial power”. The traditional tools of power in this sense are coercive or transactional. As a fact, the judiciary lacks both. Its currency is neither arms nor money. Rather it is reason and authority.

To the extent that it is possible to salvage anything from the wreckage of those proceedings in that Federal High Court last week, it is the importance of holding the feet of the judiciary to fire when any judge – no matter how high – acts in a manner that casually endangers that authority. The costs of not doing so are incalculable.

A lawyer and teacher, Odinkalu can be reached This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Baba, our people say, if an old woman stumbles twice, we must inspect the basket on her head. I will be blunt. By 2027, you will be 81. This is not ageism. By that time you would have spent more than 20 years trying to be president. In 2022, you looked tired. You could be Abraham Lincoln. But Lincoln was young and died at 56. He didn’t run for president for 20 years. Baba, let it go. 

However, it’s your prerogative. You are allowed to run for president in every election cycle till ‘thy kingdom come’. But you must think of yourself. It shouldn’t be a fixation, an unhealthy obsession. It’s good to aspire. But you have one life to live. At nearly 80, the frail ought to retire to easier routines. Then, they can sit out and reflect and write their memoirs from the outside, from the vantage position of a bystander. With the freedom to tell the truth, stepping on toes and not bothering whose ox is gored, for the benefit of coming generations. A freedom that compromise-ridden politics inhibits. Baba, think.

You must think of the country. This country has a large youthful population. The nation has stagnated. It needs energy. You saw Buhari. It wasn’t his fault. Age reduced him to a fraction of himself. His aversion for disorder and corruption had faded sufficiently for crooks to tum rings around him. You can see Tinubu. A big private jet, perhaps kitted with a good bed, is his priority. He shuttles to France frequently to grease his joints. This country doesn’t need another kabukabu president. Biden thought about his party and country and stepped aside. You can do the same. You contested for this presidency with Abiola 33 years ago. You have to move on. 

Baba Atiku, let me tell you something else. This might be one of the problems. You have been everything. Now, nobody knows what you are. Obasanjo once said you were corrupt. But after that cleansing at ‘River Ota’ in 2018, he said you were clean. Then in 2022, he stayed away from you like you were a leper. People can’t define you in a way that gives them hope. The white garment prophetess called you a humble man whose time was imminent. That was in 2019. Baba, you have conjured earth, wind and fire. Baba, you need a break. 

You are not a bigot. You don’t do religious politics. You are a decent politician. You are not violent. You are better than most. But your decency is the decency of an old political organizer who neither by deeds nor words promises a new beginning. Sir, permit my insolence, you invoke a feeling of staleness, constipation, and ‘more of the same’. The nation needs a rebirth. It needs a fundamental transformation. Not little back and forth or diffident paces of incremental progress. We need to regain respect in the comity of nations. We are a nation bleeding its talent, losing its young to other countries. Slogans won’t cut it. You don’t inspire the youth. 

People can read desperation. You can call it determination. A chronic determination to be president without a compelling moral point can’t pass the desperation test. The root of the rot is moral rather than economic. In 2022, you wanted to succeed Buhari. Power rotation didn’t matter to you. These are moral issues. You have been running for president since 2007. Nobody knows what you stand for. After six election cycles with you seeking to be president, Nigerians should know you. But you had often dashed in from Dubai, snatched a ticket, lost, and dashed back to Dubai. You are here today, there tomorrow. You can switch to any party and flock with any birds. That may be a general political problem in Nigeria but you epitomise it. 

Okay, you have friends from across the country. That’s a plus. But Tinubu does, too. Yet his appointments have shown that despite his cosmopolitan outlook, he is an ethnic chauvinist. A small wind has blown, and we have seen the underbelly of the fowl. So the country needs more than a wheeling and dealing politician with friends from all corners of the country. It needs a principled visioner. The pragmatism of a hustler is sometimes called realpolitik, but it won’t help this country. You once had the opportunity in the early 2000s you hired myopically. People of the northeast literally took over the EFCC. Ribadu, Larmode, Magu. It wasn’t you, right? Many Nigerians do not want a government by godfathers prioritizing entrenched interests. That’s the image you portray. 

You flock with all birds. The youth say you don’t inspire them. Like pap without sugar. Eaten only by the hungry for strength, slapping the cheeks and making the eyes water. Some say it’s only you that can dislodge Tinubu. But like Obi said, dislodging Tinubu isn’t the issue. The opposition and any government it might form must be foresighted, selfless and averse to corruption. If Tinubu is dislodged and a new president emerges in 2027 to award a Maiduguri – Calabar forest road to his own business partner without due process, what has the country gained? 

Waziri, your time has passed. The country needs a leader who can inspire the youths to dream. The country needs a leader who, by personal examples, can initiate a national rebirth. The country is tired. Sorry, baba Atiku, your role now should be to help identify and support a candidate who can champion national transformation. It sounds naive, right? 

To be honest you had a captivating manifesto in 2022. You prioritized national unity. But you looked exhausted.. And your campaign lacked imagination. It couldn’t even ‘Atikulate’ again. You picked up millions of votes from those who wanted a northerner and those who wanted the PDP. Nobody doubts your ability to get 7 million votes if Buhari is not in the ring. Don’t allow those votes to make you feel indispensable 

Baba, sit aside like Obasanjo and help identify suitable choices. Sit aside and help demand for electoral reforms. Baba, step aside and help build a strong electable opposition party. 

Opposition politicians have revved up their engines again ahead of the 2027 election. They are busy meeting, engaging in visitations, regrouping, and strategising under various platforms. And recently at a two-day event in Abuja themed “Strengthening Nigeria’s Democracy: Pathway to Good Governance and Political Integrity,” some of these opposition figures huffed and puffed, upbraiding the present government and disparaging President Bola Tinubu and the governing All Progressives Congress.

Some of them, like former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, have taken advantage of various public speaking opportunities to condemn the government’s policy options and decisions but offered little or no alternative course of action.

This is dismaying. During the Second Republic when the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria leader, the late sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo, was the leader of the opposition, he would dissect the policies of the National Party of Nigeria government of President Shehu Shagari, cut it down into granular details and offer clear, convincing and actionable alternatives. Awolowo’s interventions provided useful solutions that would have bolstered Nigeria’s economy and enriched our democracy, but unfortunately, that era lasted only four years and three months as the military struck.

President Tinubu has barely spent two years in office. Yet, political opponents have upped the ante in a desperate move to grab power in 2027. The latest move in this direction was the visit last week of the defeated Peoples Democratic Party candidate in the 2023 presidential election, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, to former President Olusegun Obasanjo at his Abeokuta, Ogun State hilltop residence. Atiku was in company with former Sokoto State governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former Cross River State governor Liyel Imoke and Senator Abdul Ningi from Bauchi State, all of the crisis-ridden PDP.

The former vice-president claimed the meeting had nothing to do with 2027. Anyone who believes him on that will believe anything. There was also New Nigeria People’s Party leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso, who travelled all the way to Lagos from Kano to confer with former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola to discuss issues believed to be in connection with 2027. Ogbeni Aregbesola is leading the Omoluabi Group in Osun.

Three sets of opposition groups are discernible at the moment. One group comprises President Tinubu’s opponents in the 2023 election who have refused to see, and perhaps may never see, anything good in the present government, hard as the administration works to reverse the past mistakes and dwindling fortunes of the country. These men contested the last election with the President and were roundly defeated both on the ballot and in court.

However, they have continued to carry on as if the 2023 election cycle has not ended. In this group are former VP Atiku and former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi. Their depleting rank of supporters, called the Atikulated and Obidents, are in league with them in this cantankerous behaviour.

The second group is made up of some erstwhile APC chieftains who claim to still belong to the party but have constituted themselves into opposition elements within. Bitter and vicious, they include former minister of transportation Rotimi Amaechi and some others who rightly or wrongly feel entitled to political appointments and government patronage. Amaechi had detached himself from the APC since he lost out at the APC primaries in August 2022.

The last group is composed of former APC leaders who are completely out of the party but now vigorously working against the party’s interests. Ogbeni Aregbesola belongs in this group.

These three groups of opposition figures are working to take over power in 2027. They are aiming at forming a coalition to unseat APC. None has been consummated as of this time.

It is relevant to ask: why are opposition parties in our climes unduly fixated about taking over power? It may be argued that the zero-sum nature of our politics, the winner-takes-all syndrome, is a contributory factor. But then, the role of opposition parties in a democracy is much more crucial. It is critical in determining the level of accountability and acceptability of governing parties as well as the overall quality of a country’s democracy.

In his seminal work on the “Role of Opposition Parties in Developing Democracies” published in a journal by Democracy Works Foundation, Williams Gumede posits that: “Opposition parties provide alternative visions, policies, and leaders to the governing party. They scrutinise government decisions, policies, and actions – and play oversight over the executive and the public administration. They defend the voters’ interests – not only their constituencies but all the country’s voters.”

Indeed, opposition parties’ capacity to show the electorate they are credible alternatives is crucial to the credibility of the democratic system. The strength of the opposition in a democracy plays a key role in the quality of that democracy and, by extension, the effectiveness of the state. Gumede adds that, “a democratic system is significantly undermined if the opposition does not offer any credible alternatives to the governing party, is invisible in the public debate or does not have a public profile beyond during elections.”

Although many will reckon that 2027 is still a long time and according to a Yoruba adage, the sun out there can still dry the clothes, nonetheless, it is doubtful if the opposition as currently constituted in Nigeria is capable of ousting the APC in 2027.

This is why I surmise this way: the major opposition parties, the PDP, Labour Party, and of course NNPP are neck deep in crisis. They parade fragile leadership with seemingly unending court litigations. Generally, the opposition seems too uncoordinated and lacks focus. Any alliance by such groups can only be fickle and fissiparous. These opposition politicians are being driven by personal ambition, and not the interest of the country.

Also, the matter of power rotation between the North and South over two terms is also an important factor that may work against the opposition. This factor and the machinations over 2027 may have prompted the Secretary to the Government of the Federation Senator George George Akume and APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje to ask the North to wait till 2031 for another shot at power, arguing that President Muhammadu Buhari from the North had done eight years in office and that the South should be allowed to complete its eight years as well.

APC national secretary Senator Ajibola Basiru spoke on this seeming emptiness of the disgruntled opposition groups. In an interview with the Nigerian Tribune published on Wednesday, February 12, 2025, he doubted if the opposition parties had what it takes to successfully cobble a merger or form a united front against the APC.

He declared: “The question is, for the economic policies of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, what are the alternatives that the opposition has brought out, beyond just planning for the 2027 election? If 2027 comes, what do they want to campaign with, and what alternatives are you giving the people? They don’t have any alternative. The so-called opposition groups are just power-mongers. The only job they have is that they want to access government power for personal aggrandizement without any program or policies for the Nigerian people. I’m not a soothsayer, but they will not be able to merge because all the leading opposition figures are driven by personal ambitions.”

Do I agree with the APC national secretary? I think so.

Rahman is the senior special assistant to President Tinubu on media, publicity and special duties.