OTHERS' VIEWS

OTHERS' VIEWS

SUNDAY 1-DEC

 

Hearn confirms Joshua’s 2025 return date
https://reubenabati.com.ng/sports/hearn-confirms-joshua-s-2025-return-date

Why Nigeria Needs Tax Reform – Oyedele
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/why-nigeria-needs-tax-reform-oyedele

Okpebholo, APC Jittery Over Exposure Of Systemic Rigging In Edo, Lies To Cover Fraud – Obaseki
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/okpebholo-apc-jittery-over-exposure-of-systemic-rigging-in-edo-lies-to-cover-fraud-obaseki

CBN tells Nigerians to report cash withdrawal issues from December 1, banks to face penalties
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/cbn-tells-nigerians-to-report-cash-withdrawal-issues-from-december-1-banks-to-face-penalties

Local Government Autonomy….Concerns Mount Over Non-execution Of Supreme Court Ruling
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/local-government-autonomy-concerns-mount-over-non-execution-of-supreme-court-ruling

Tinubu Tax: North’s anger grows as youths attack Deputy Senate President
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/tinubu-tax-north-s-anger-grows-as-youths-attack-deputy-senate-president

OAuGF report reveals huge financial infractions in NNPCL, NUPRC, NMDPRA
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/oaugf-report-reveals-huge-financial-infractions-in-nnpcl-nuprc-nmdpra

Rivers: N27bn IGR behind Fubara, Wike rift, INEC now APC member – Adeyanju
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/rivers-n27bn-igr-behind-fubara-wike-rift-inec-now-apc-member-adeyanju

‘I Am Against Tax Reform Bills, It Gives Some States More Advantage’ – Ningi
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/i-am-against-tax-reform-bills-it-gives-some-states-more-advantage-ningi

[STATE HOUSE PRESS RELEASE] President Tinubu Congratulates New NUJ President And Executive Team
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/state-house-press-release-president-tinubu-congratulates-new-nuj-president-and-executive-team

[PRESS RELEASE] President Tinubu Approves Funds for UNESCO Media and Information Literacy Institute in Nigeria
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/press-release-president-tinubu-approves-funds-for-unesco-media-and-information-literacy-institute-in-nigeria

Trump threatens 100% tariff on BRICS countries over currency plans
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/trump-threatens-100-tariff-on-brics-countries-over-currency-plans

‘From Secular To Sacred’ - Filmmaker, Mike Bamiloye Reflects On Transformation To Gospel Drama
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/from-secular-to-sacred-filmmaker-mike-bamiloye-reflects-on-transformation-to-gospel-drama

Darey Art Alade and wife Desola mark 18th wedding anniversary
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/dare-art-alade-s-wife-deola-celebrate-18th-wedding-anniversary

Sokoto NLC Suspends Planned Strike Over ₦70,000 Minimum Wage
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/sokoto-nlc-suspends-planned-strike-over-70-000-minimum-wage

Nigeria needs collaborative leaders for national progress - Peter Obi
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/nigeria-needs-collaborative-leaders-for-national-progress-peter-obi

How Tinubu’s fiery critics became spokespersons, loyalists
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/how-tinubu-s-fiery-critics-became-spokespersons-loyalists

2027: Atiku, Obi deny joint presidential bid after reunion
https://reubenabati.com.ng/feature/2027-atiku-obi-deny-joint-presidential-bid-after-reunion

Tax Reform Bill: Atiku Calls For Transparency, Inclusivity In Debate
https://reubenabati.com.ng/news/tax-reform-bill-atiku-calls-for-transparency-inclusivity-in-debate

 

Many people think – though erroneously – that Man or Woman of the Year, Person or Personality of the Year is given only to saints; even devils have a right to it, and have many times been so “rewarded” in the past! The award is usually a recognition of who impacted lives the most, globally or within a geographical location, for good or for bad within the period under review. Who did the most extraordinary things – whether to the people’s acclamation/applause or derision/opprobrium? Who was the most enigmatic, the most controversial and talked-about, again, for good or for bad? Who surprised people the most – in their speeches, actions, and the successes recorded; whose sound bites travelled farther than those of any other person, thus etching a permanent impression on people’s mind and psyche? Emilokan! Make America Great Again! Whose presence/personality, policies (imagined or anticipated) and actions (threatened or real) have impacted or moved people to action more than at any other time in recent history? These are some of the qualities that determine who is so crowned – for better or for worse. Now, think of any Nigerian other than President Bola Ahmed Tinubu whom the cap fits! Had the Dangote refinery not dashed Nigerians’ hope of a substantial reduction in the price of fuel, Aliko Dangote would have been the undisputed Man of the Year 2024. But as things are, Tinubu is, in many respects, the Nigerian version of the United States’ Donald Trump, its former (45th) president as well as incoming (47th) president, a few days from now.

Many in the US were gutted when TIME magazine announced Trump as its “Person of the Year 2024”, perhaps more so than when Trump won the November 5, 2024 US presidential election by a landslide, winning both the popular vote and the electoral college, and leaving no one in doubt that he was the choice of the vast majority of the American electorate. Expect here a similar backlash to Tinubu being Personality of the Year. Maybe we should first take a look at how TIME arrived at its choice of Trump because the similarities between the personality and politics of Trump and Tinubu are striking in many respects.

 

“ For 97 years, the editors of TIME have been picking the Person of the Year: the individual who, for better or for worse, did the most to shape the world and the headlines over the past 12 months. In many years, that choice was a difficult one. In 2024, it was not.

“Since he began running for President in 2015, perhaps no single individual has played a larger role in changing the course of politics and history than Trump. He shocked many by winning the White House in 2016, then led the U.S. through a chaotic term that included the first year of a pandemic as well as a period of nationwide protest, and that ended with his losing the election by 7 million votes and provoking the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The smart money wagered that we had witnessed the end of Trump.

“If that moment marked Trump’s nadir, today we are witnessing his apotheosis. On the cusp of his second presidency, all of us—from his most fanatical supporters to his most fervent critics—are living in the Age of Trump. He dispatched his Republican rivals in near record time. For weeks, he campaigned largely from the New York courtroom where he would be convicted on 34 felony counts. His sole debate with President Joe Biden in June led to his opponent’s eventual exit from the race. Sixteen days later, he survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally. In the sprint that followed, he outlasted Vice President Kamala Harris, sweeping all seven swing states and emerging from the election at the height of his popularity. “Look what happened,” Trump told his supporters in his election-night victory speech. “Isn’t this crazy?” He almost couldn’t believe it himself.

“Trump has remade American politics in the process. He won by enlarging his base, seizing the frustration over rising prices and benefiting from a global turn against incumbents. With those tailwinds, exit polls suggest that he won the largest percentage of Black Americans for a Republican since Gerald Ford and the most Latino voters of any GOP nominee since George W. Bush. Suburban women, whose anger over restrictions to reproductive rights was thought to be a bulwark for the Democrats, moved not away but toward him. He became the first Republican in 20 years to win more votes than the Democrat, with 9 of 10 American counties increasing their support for Trump from 2020.

“Now we watch as members of Congress, international institutions, and global leaders once again align themselves with his whims. The carousel of Trumpworld characters spins anew. This time, we think we know what to expect. Supporters cheer even his promises to take revenge on his enemies and dismantle the government. In a matter of weeks, Trump will be returning to the Oval Office with his intentions clear: tariff imports, deport millions, and threaten the press. Put RFK Jr. in charge of vaccines. Chance war with Iran. “Anything can happen,” he told us.

“Sitting with TIME three weeks after the election, Trump was more subdued than when we visited him at Mar-a-Lago in March. He is happiest to be in a fight, and now that he has won, he sounded almost wistful, recognizing that he had run for office for the final time. “It’s sad in a way. It will never happen again,” Trump told us. And while he is thinking about how that chapter has ended, for Americans and for the world, it is also the beginning of a new one. Trump is once again at the center of the world, and in as strong a position as he has ever been.

“Over time, we’ve seen the Person of the Year franchise shift: from Man of the Year to its current designation; from the period between the world wars, defined by leaders like Mohandas Gandhi and Wallis Simpson, to the first quarter of the 21st century, an era marked by the tremendous changes ushered in by a technological revolution. Although the American presidency has evolved across these eras, its influence has not diminished. Today, we are witnessing a resurgence of populism, a widening mistrust in the institutions that defined the last century, and an eroding faith that liberal values will lead to better lives for most people. Trump is both agent and beneficiary of it all.

“For marshaling a comeback of historic proportions, for driving a once-in-a generation political realignment, for reshaping the American presidency and altering America’s role in the world, Donald Trump is TIME’s 2024 Person of the Year”.

If it was not difficult for TIME to choose its Person of the Year 2024, it should be no less for us here in Nigeria. Tinubu has been an influential recurring decimal in Nigeria’s political scene since he was elected as senator in 1992. He was a leading figure in the pro-democracy activism that fought military dictatorship to a standstill before becoming a two-term governor of the country’s most important state of Lagos (1999 – 2007), where he shone like a million stars. From there, he became a godfather, snatching the political leadership of the South-west from his erstwhile political godfathers. By playing a pivotal role in cobbling together the All Progressives Congress alliance to snatch power from a sitting president, he helped to engineer what had not happened before in Nigeria’s political history. He rode on the crest of that momentum to contest and win the presidential election in 2023.

Like it was thought of Trump after he lost his 2019 re-election bid to Joe Biden, everyone thought the end had come to Tinubu’s political career when his own party, the APC, gave him the cold shoulder from 2015 to 2023. Who ever thought the Asiwaju of Yorubaland and Jagaban Borgu would win the APC presidential ticket, not to talk of going ahead to win the presidential election of 2023? But he did, surprising even himself! Despite the barricades erected by party cabals, and the betrayals he suffered, even from some of his most trusted lieutenants! The Muhammadu Buhari he helped to make president was indifferent, even adversarial, to his own presidential ambition. To quote Anthony in William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, the buffeting Tinubu endured from some of his supposedly die-hard godsons qualified as “the unkindest cut of all”. Just like some of the closest associates of Trump who showed up in court to testify against him!

TIME says Trump virtually shuttled between the courtrooms (answering to sundry allegations and criminal charges) and the campaign ground, so also did Tinubu face a barrage of allegations and accusations bordering on his name/identity, age, schools attended/certificates, state of origin/paternity, health status, corruption charges, name it! Like Trump, he survived them all, including erstwhile CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele’s currency change in the rundown to the presidential election that was widely interpreted as targeted at derailing Tinubu’s campaign strategy.

Unlike Trump who still has a few more days to wait before taking over and rolling out his stated policies which have not only Americans but the entire world catching cold already, Tinubu has been in the saddle for a little over one-and-half years and has exploded from his first day in office with policies that have thrown the entire Nigerian system into a tailspin, so to say. His twin policy of “subsidy is gone” and floating of the Naira has become the defining moments of his presidency. At no time in this country’s recent history has any government or its policies affected – nay, afflicted – Nigerians as these two-some, which critics have aptly described as Tinubu-Pain but which the Tinubu government itself optimistically sees as Temporary-Pain necessary to prevent the total collapse of the economy while restoring it to good health again over time.

Like Trump, Tinubu is audacious. They both share the same never-say-die spirit. The stubborn streak in both men steeled them to plunge into storms head-on like an eagle, daring to be different and seeing victory where everyone else sees defeat. Marching gallantly where even angels fear to tread must be one of the qualities that qualify them for Man or Person of the Year. The decisive steps on state police, local government autonomy, revamping of the comatose refineries, and the proposed tax reforms all indicate that Tinubu is not one to fear stepping on powerful toes.  If Trump’s comeback was of “historic proportions” as TIME says, Tinubu’s ascendancy to the Nigerian presidency was no less. Who would have thought that the former governor of Lagos, with all the baggage hewn on him, would succeed where the trio of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo; Chief Olu Falae, and Basorun MKO Abiola failed?

Congratulations, Mr. President, but rather than rejoice or go to sleep, be reasonably advised to wear this accolade with fear and trembling (Phillipians 2: 12) because “better is the end of a thing than the beginning thereof” (Ecclesiastes 7: 8). The renewed hope that you canvassed; the light at the end of the tunnel that you promised; the T-Pain that you said is temporary; the better days ahead for all Nigerians that you said in your New Year speech are around the corner – all these must materialise if the joy of today is not to turn to ashes in your mouth.

Do you know that Jigawa can become the richest state in Nigeria? Don’t laugh at me and say “this guy has started again”. I will explain myself, but my central point remains that we have a mental block when it comes to understanding the wealth of a state. We have limited it to mineral resources and the sharing of the contents of the federation account by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). We downplay many potential sources of revenue staring us in the face every day of the week and devote our energies to the allocation sharing formula. This wouldn’t be much of a problem if not that it always raises the temperature of the nationhood discourse. Who will save us?

In my previous article, ‘Let’s Be Kind to Nigeria, Please’, I analysed the malignant negativism that has afflicted many Nigerians. Only bad news about Nigeria excites them. Anything positive depresses them. Even in a silver cloud, all they want to see is a dark lining. If Boko Haram terrorists kill one soldier, they will amplify it. If soldiers eliminate 100 terrorists, they will look away. Their definition of “speaking the truth” is saying “Nigeria is finished patapata”. Those who say “there is hope for Nigeria” are ridiculed as “PR consultants” and cowed into silence. Thus, positive Nigerians keep quiet to avoid being “dragged”. I said you can hate your president and still love your country. It is legal.

Malignant negativism aside, another mental block eating us up is in the area of revenue allocation. The proposed VAT sharing formula has set another fire to our delicate fabric as an aspiring nation. The north is pitted against the south (yet again) over revenue sharing. The current VAT formula allocates 15 percent to the federal government, 50 percent to states, and 35 percent to LGAs. States share their slice on a ratio of 50:30:20 — equality, population, derivation. The new proposal is 10 percent for federal government, 55 percent for states and 35 percent for LGAs. States will use a ratio of 20:20:60 — equality, population, derivation — for their own share if the amendment is passed.

The point of friction is the 60 percent portion for derivation. Many northerners are arguing that the derivation is designed to marginalise “the north”. To the best of my knowledge, revenue is not shared region by region or zone by zone. Rather, it is state by state. Kwara does not collect its allocation and share it with Kogi just because they are both northern states. Borno does not pay the salaries of Bauchi workers. Kaduna doesn’t build roads in Kebbi. The loans taken by Niger are not repaid by Nasarawa. All states share and spend revenues individually. Why then do some people purport to speak on behalf of the entire north on matters that affect every state differently? It is all politics.

Well, there is nothing wrong with playing politics. My problem is when politics stifles alternative thinking and creativity. Agora Policy has done a simulation of VAT distributions for November 2024 based on 55 percent allocation to states and 60 percent of that for derivation. Agora used location of consumption to calculate derivation (instead of the headquarters of remitting companies, which heavily favours Lagos). The simulation shows that 10 of the 19 northern states would be net gainers. How then does that amount to marginalising the entire north? The north-east is most affected, but the North East Development Commission (NEDC) already gets 3 percent of VAT. Let’s apply reason.

But here is my point. Rather than resort to our typical mindset about Nigeria — the fixation with our comfort zone called “federation allocation” — how about going a step further by baking a much bigger cake? I am not suggesting that those to be affected negatively by the proposed derivation formula should stop talking. However, aside the protests, what policies, programmes and projects can Nigerian states design to boost their local economies so that we can end up with a win-win? That, to me, will be more beneficial in the long run. I insist that we have every ingredient to make Nigeria prosper, but we must apply our brains positively to take full advantage of our endowments.

In this essay, I intend to discuss some practical ways of defusing this revenue sharing warfare. There are two assumptions underlining my proposals. One, I assume that a state truly wants to start reducing dependency on the federation account. (By the way, federation account is not a gift from the federal government. The revenue is only being collected on their behalf by the federal government. It is their right, not a favour.) Two, I assume that a state is genuinely interested in raising more revenues and not just talking a good game. Let me add a third assumption: that a state is sincerely open to ideas and there is a political will and vision to address the revenue challenges.

Spoiler alert: I am not proposing anything new. I am simply repackaging what has been tried by some states and which, in my evaluation, worked and can be refined and replicated on a broader scale. The first of my three proposals is that states can part-own profitable private ventures, profitable being the key word. The good thing is that they would not be running the businesses. It is their investments that would do the work and make returns. The funds some states have been spending on building unprofitable airports (I guess the motive is to allow chartered flights and private jets land directly in their backyards) could have been invested in businesses that would yield handsome dividends.

Here is an example. When Nigeria launched its telecoms revolution in 2001, three states — Akwa Ibom, Delta and Lagos — invested millions of dollars in what was then known as Econet (now Airtel), one of the three GSM licensees. The share value doubled within five years. Given what we later got to know, the investments would have generated — and still be generating — millions of dollars in returns to the states. That would have bolstered their non-FAAC revenue. For reasons that were never made public, they divested. Else, they would still be earning dividends. I have my suspicion on what went down. That is why I often try to distinguish between genuine and personal interests.

Another example. When Dangote Cement acquired Benue Cement Company (BCC), the Benue state government (its original owners) got a percentage of the shares as part of the political settlement of the opposition to the sale. The state was getting dividends, which regularly supplemented its income from the federation account. Ahead of the 2015 general election, the state government woke up one day and said it was selling its remaining stake in Dangote Cement. It got $122 million. If you ask me where the money went, who am I going to ask? But imagine the value of the shares today with the weight Dangote Cement carries in the market — and the dividends Benue would still be earning.

What’s more, states can invest in firms operating in profitable fields such as oil, solid minerals and ICT in order to supplement — and even surpass — their federation allocations. For instance, we have somehow reduced the entire petroleum sector to who owns the oil and who doesn’t — but there is no law that says states cannot buy stakes in companies operating in exploration and marketing and earn dividends for life. Absolutely no restriction. We like to blame the 1999 Constitution and lack of “true” federalism for every problem in Nigeria. Of course, it is all politics. Our mental block makes us ignore more opportunities and possibilities because of the fixation with Utopia and comfort zones.

I said Jigawa could be the richest state for illustrative purposes only. But wait for this. The state recently decided to buy privately owned Khadija University for N11 billion. I kid you not. ELEVEN BILLION NAIRA. Already, there are three universities in Jigawa, including the state-owned Sule Lamido University. If N11 billion was invested in a fintech company, imagine the returns. With intelligent investment in profitable ventures, losing N500 million monthly in VAT revenue would be insignificant and should not be a reason to set the polity on fire, but this is the way we have structured public debate. Until we deal with this mental block, we will keep insulting one another.

Let me now move to my second proposal. That is, states can directly set up companies in competitive areas of the economy. But there is a big BUT — the businesses should not be run by the states. Many states have enterprises but they are run like civil service. An option is a joint venture to be managed by the partners. I like the Nigeria LNG model. It is jointly owned by the federation (49 percent) and the oil majors (51 percent). However, it is managed by the oil majors. It is a huge success. Hand it over to the ministry of petroleum and it will become a disaster. Another option is for a state to fully own a company and lease out the management so that it can be run like a proper enterprise.   

My third proposal is for states to create the right environment for the growth of their local economies. They can benefit more from tax revenues. These would include personal income tax from jobs created and VAT derivation from consumption. Unfortunately, this involves critical thinking and heavy lifting which would make them sound attractive. Some states hurt businesses: they are only interested in how to suck them dry rather than how to water the field for them to flourish. There is no part of Nigeria that is not endowed with natural and human resources, even if not equally. However, because of our mental block over revenue sharing, many states cannot think of earning.

In sum, it is obvious that Nigeria can be far better than this. We are just scratching the surface. If we get our act together, we will be flying. But Nigeria cannot change until Nigerians change. We have to deal with the mental blocks afflicting the leadership and the intelligentsia — and being aggressively passed on to the streets. We must deal with the malignant negativism and mischievous politicking. All countries that have exited underdevelopment saw opportunities and possibilities, not doom and gloom. The countries we call advanced today evolved through a nation-building process, including internal battles with strife and scepticism. But you know what? Every problem has a solution.

 

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

REFINERIES’ REVIVAL

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited promised to revive our refineries. After much delay, the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries are back on stream, even if not fully. Many Nigerians are understandably sceptical about the news. For decades, we were told the refineries would work but they never did — after billions of dollars had gone down the drain. Nigerians have every right to take the latest news with a pinch of salt. In response, the NNPC has been inviting Doubting Thomases to come and take a tour and see things for themselves. My suggestion: those refineries must now be privatised, else the latter end will be worse than the former. Forewarned.

HEALTH AND CARE

Mr Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election, has advised President Bola Tinubu to visit federal government hospitals in the new year and consider doing his medicals in the country. This, he said, will let him assess the state of medical facilities “to make informed decisions on how to upgrade and make them efficient”. This is a beautiful suggestion, if you ask me. The only thing I would add is that governors should also do the same, since health is on the concurrent list. If I were to advise our leaders, I would say they and their cabinet members should regularly pay unscheduled visits to public hospitals and schools as well as to slums. Practical.

DETTY DECEMBER

Despite the negative vibes being spread about Nigeria across the world, it was good to see so many A-list foreign celebrities celebrate the festive season in the country. Chloe Bailey, the American popstar, was the first in the news. American rappers Saweetie and Gunna were soon spotted at parties. Tyla, the South African star, was over the moon, describing December in Nigeria as “too much”. What about the “I Just Got Back” gang? Detty December is now a major tourist attraction in Lagos, like the Calabar Carnival in Cross River, and that means a lot to the local economies, at least on a seasonal level. I know this saddens the “Najia sceptics” but what can we do? Delightful.

NO COMMENT

In a major setback for the campaign against rape, the appeal court sitting in Lagos nullified the conviction of Dr Femi Olaleye, managing director of Optimal Cancer Care Foundation, but the Lagos state government has now appealed. The life imprisonment sentence by the high court was quashed by the appellate court on the grounds that the wife’s evidence was “tainted” and “unreliable”, that she was motivated by the desire to take over the appellant’s assets upon his incarceration, and that the lower court relied on “hearsay evidence” of the other witnesses on the age of the alleged survivor because — wait for this — none of them was present when she was born. Wonderful.

 

Let us start the new year on this column by looking at the mining sector and some matters arising therein. This is particularly important because of the much-talked-about need for alternative streams of largescale income for the nation. About two weeks ago the ban on solid minerals exploration and exploitation in Zamfara state was lifted by the federal Government. This was coming after more than five years of a “no fly and no go” zone imposed on the state’s miners, mining sites and environs, in 2019 by the Buhari government, due to serious security and humanitarian concerns.

Zamfara State and its home of large-scale gold mining, known as Bukuyum, is a place I have visited in the past. The grinding poverty and visible misery in that mineral-rich community presents a frightening contrast to the billions the land yields up on a regular basis to both legal and illegal miners. The long table of food times laid out at the local government headquarters during the visit was raided by half-clad, desperately hungry and partly bewildered looking children and youths. Some of those who helped to lay the table and place the food and plates joined in the free for plunder of the meal table. It was a pitiful sight to behold.

The expectation at the time the Federal Government imposed a ban on mining activities in Zamfara State, under President Buhari, was that the activities of bandits, and other security concerns, would abate in the wake of the ban. Many observers justifiably considered it a short-term emergency measure, especially given the perceived linkages between banditry and illegal mining activities in the area. But the expected gains did not materialize. Meanwhile, the ban was not lifted.

The decision to lift the ban last year was based on the current government’s perception, as announced by the Minister for Solid Minerals Development, Dr. Dele Alake, of “significant improvements in the security situation” across Zamfara state. It would appear that this development arose from new, intelligence-driven, and better-coordinated, security operations that led to the progressive and visible elimination of major leaders of criminal gangs and leaders of bandit groups.

The observable reduction in incidents of insecurity, as well the elimination or capture of some of the most wanted bandit commanders, like Halilu Sububu, in open and covert operation gave fillip to the recent decision to resume mining activities in Zamfara. But the essential point for me in all of this is the fact that the nation stands to gain much by the revitalization of mining activities in the Zamfara axis. Of course, with the necessary security, regulatory and other logistical entablements in place to guarantee sustainability.

While the ban lasted, the miners who were officially and formally granted lease by the mining cadastral office to carry out mining activities had to hands off, and stay off, the area. While these duly recognized miners were held in abeyance by the ban and the law, the space they left unmanned was taken over by non-state actors like bandits and illegal miners. The proceeds of these questionable mining activities were going into the pockets of individuals, especially bandits. Sundry marauders and other socially disruptive stakeholders were also the beneficiaries.

The massive quantities of gold, lithium, copper and other associated minerals in the state were thus being mined during the period of the ban, but not in the interest of the nation or its treasury. The positive security mileage that would have come from the ban, as well as the good intentions behind it, were nowhere to be see. Instead, the ban unintentionally opened the space for unlawful activities that worsened the security problems in the area.

If the as much as 200 kilogrammes of gold could be found in the camp of the now-neutralized bandit leader, Sububu, can you imagine what has been going on with many bandit leaders like him in the last five years?

Yes, the ban has been lifted, as announced by the minister, but the illegal miners are still there. Yes, there was the Presidential Artisanal Gold Miners Initiative (PAGMI), under president Buhari, which was designed to bring the unlicensed fringe actors in the sector within a regulated umbrella. It was designed to ensure that the government and the nation block a revenue and resource leakage, in the interest of the national treasury.

But let us not forget that the whole point of renaming illegal miners and creating a presidential initiative for their “domestication” is for them to be quickly brought within the Standard regulatory Environment (SRE) established for the sector. That is why PAGMI should perhaps be reviewed in such a way that a timeline for integration and better streamlined mining sector determined.  Its relevance to the Solid Minerals Development Fund is understandable, but the ministry must decide now whether PAGMI should be retained in perpetuity.

As mining activities are now set resume in Zamfara, the minister must also consider the predicament of many companies whose facilities and machinery were vandalized and even taken over and badly damaged by illegal miners in the five years that the ban lasted. Yes, banditry is now “degraded” in Zamfara, but it is still there. The ruined communities still have many existential problems to deal with.

It is good that part of what the minster has put in place is a security tax force, known as the Mine Police, also now called Mining Marshal Police by some, to combat illegal mining and smuggling. But we must also worry about their capacities and military firepower, vis-a-vis, the bandits they have to contend with; especially bearing in mind the military grade training of some bandits. The Mining Act guarantees protection for all licensed miners, but it does not guarantee the quality, or dependability, of that protection.

Yet the good news remains. This is what the Minister had to say about the lifting of the ban: “The existential threat to lives and properties that led to the 2019 ban has abated. The security operatives’ giant strides have led to a notable reduction in the level of insecurity, and with the ban on exploration lifted, Zamfara’s mining sector can gradually begin contributing to the nation’s revenue pool”.

One thing is clear, namely, that the lifting of the ban will improve government regulation of mining activities in the state, especially after the “five years eaten by locusts”. It will also improve government revenue and give the mining sector an improved regulatory framework for effective intelligence gathering to combat illegal mining and ensure the nation benefits maximally from the state’s rich mineral resources.

As for the recent controversy surrounding the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Nigeria signed with France, there is no question of Nigeria relinquishing control of its mineral resources to, or entering into any military pact with, France. Not at this point in our national history. So far, available information suggests that the core of the MOU is on training and capacity building for mining professionals. Yes, we need further technical and financial capacity development and support in the sector and some of that can be provided by the French, but not at the expense of our national sovereignty.

Ours is a nation endowed with substantial solid, liquid and gaseous mineral deposits, for which extant internal capacities are not enough. We have such rare endowments as columbite, tantalite, beryl, aquamarine, lithium and tourmaline, besides gold, coal, tin, lead, zinc, limestone, granite, laterite, barite, gypsum, kaolin, marble, iron ore and wolframite. We need to bridge the gap between our natural endowments and our capacity for their exploitation. It is only through clear-eyed technical partnerships, technological support, security of the operating environment and reforms and guaranteed regulatory compliance that the sector can be taken to greater heights.

This ministry must be supported in its efforts to live up to its mandate of helping the nation to maximize the expected benefits of the solid minerals sub-sector. This sector is one sure route to economic diversification and the expansion of revenue streams for the nation.  It is only with well thought out policies, regulatory guidelines, fiscal incentives and effective partnerships that the minister can administer all aspects of mining and mineral exploitation, such as issuance of permits, licenses, leases, collection of rents, fees and royalties, prospecting, quarrying, mining, handling, sale and consumption of solid minerals. And all of this on templates that are guided by global best practices.

In addition to the aforementioned minerals, our lithium, graphite and nickel, which are vital for the global energy transition of today places Nigeria in the spotlight, because of growing interest by global investors and rising global demand for these minerals. The unique opportunity to stan d forth as a key supplier in this emerging market is here with us.

What needs to happen, in addition to the good works being done so far are: (1) Availability and accessibility of high-quality geological data. (2) Popularization of the National Integrated Mineral Exploration Project (NIMEP). (3) Improvements in critical infrastructure, like roads, rail, and power supply. (4) The leveraging of public-private partnerships (PPPs) to fund and develop such infrastructural support services. (5) The review of the existing incentives framework for mining, to determine whether it is sufficiently attractive to investors in the sector. (6) Disaggregating and evaluating fiscal and non-fiscal incentives to ascertain to what extent they are competitive and aligned with investor expectations and global industry practices.

Finally, the ministry and the minister need to keep The Nigeria Mining Week in the front row of their enlightenment and public visibility programmes. It serves as a good forum for networking in the mining sector. The connections made, the opportunities, the conferences and technical sessions from each edition offer great opportunities. Stakeholders are enriched with knowledge, stronger industry connections, and a renewed sense of optimism for the sector’s growth. The minster’s surmising, that Nigeria Mining Week has evolved into more than a gathering of industry experts and is now “a powerful forum where we refine our shared vision, aligning our goals to create a robust, self-reliant mining sector in which Nigeria’s mineral wealth serves as the backbone of economic diversification, job creation, and community development, advancing our national interest for the benefit of every Nigerian” is easy to understand.

 

 

Last week’s column on what I called the “relentless Yorubacentric take-over of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC)” based on information I was given by a Yoruba supporter of Tinubu who is close to the circuits of power in the Tinubu presidency drew far more attention than I had anticipated.

Northern politicians like former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai who had defended, or at least had no problems with, Muhammadu Buhari’s never-before-seen provincialism (and who probably hated me for calling it out at the time) used my column as a crutch to get even with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who threw him under the bus after his full-throated support for his election. Well, such opportunistic pivots are part of Nigeria’s political theater.

However, anyone who follows my public interventions knows that I have no allegiance to any set of narrow, predetermined interests and that my public commentaries are animated by my well-considered estimation of what constitutes Nigerian society’s collective good.

 That’s why I have a revolving door of critics and admirers—praised by one group under one administration, scorned by the same group under another. My principles remain constant, even if public sentiment does not.

 Several of the people who applaud my critiques of a southern president revile and slander me when a northerner is president, and several of the people who are bent out of shape because of my critical columns on Tinubu praised my “bravery” and “truth to power” when I wrote similar columns under Buhari.

This isn’t the reason, of course, for revisiting my column (which I rarely do) because self-interested commendations and condemnations of the expression of critical opinions are natural to the territory of public intellection.

 I am returning to the issue because I felt compelled to clarify an important aspect of last week’s piece. 

A trusted older friend pointed out that Bayo Ojulari, who is rumored to be Tinubu’s pick to succeed Mele Kyari as head of the NNPC, is not merely a Yoruba man but a Yoruba northerner from southern Kwara State. This distinction fundamentally alters the narrative.

Had I known this earlier, I would not have written the column as I did. I have no desire to perpetuate the regressive, ethnocentric narratives that gained prominence during Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidency where the North was invidiously dichotomized into a “core” and a “periphery.” 

Northern identity, as historically defined, transcends ethnicity, religion, or geography within the former Northern Region. It is a shared geo-political and cultural construct. 

A northerner is anyone from the former Northern Region irrespective of ethnicity, religion, or location within the region. Being a northerner requires nobody’s approval and isn’t invalidated by anybody’s disapproval.

 As the late Sunday Awoniyi used to say, when Frederick Lugard delineated the North and included his people into it, his ancestors were not consulted; he just found himself a northerner and embraced it because it has defined him since his birth. (The only prominent Yagba people from Kogi State I know who say they are not Yoruba are Professor Etannibi Alemika and prominent journalist Tunde Asaju).

The North isn’t an ethnic group; it’s constructed geo-cultural and political identity that encompasses a diversity of ethnicities. It’s Nigeria’s most complex, ecumenical identity.

 As I pointed out in previous columns, a real, Ahmadu Bello-type northerner would regard Yoruba people from Kwara and Kogi states, or even Igbo people in Ado, Oju, Obi and Okpoku local government areas of Benue State, as integral “regional kin” deserving of every privilege that is accruable to a northerner. 

To argue that certain individuals cannot represent the North based on their ethnicity invites uncomfortable questions about the region’s cultural and political boundaries.

 If Bayo Bashir Ojulari, an Ahmadu Bello University-trained engineer who identifies as a northerner by origin, cannot lead the NNPC because of his Yoruba heritage, then the resentment of Yoruba people in Kwara and Kogi seeking affiliation with the Southwest becomes understandable. 

It becomes intolerably churlish to talk about “outsiders” “dividing” the North, as we like to do when fissiparous tendencies emerge within the region. Either we accept all as northerners, or we fracture the identity entirely.

This clarification is necessary because I do not want to be on record as having opposed Ojulari’s ascension to the headship of the NNPC on account of his ethnicity, especially after realizing that he is a northerner who just happens to share the same ethnicity as the president. 

Ultimately, it’s up to the president to navigate this complex identitarian landmine, but as someone who researches and is writing a book on collective identity construction, it would be remiss of me not to point out that Ojulari’s northern identity is as valid as Kyari’s— or any other northerner from any part of the region.

This admission does not, in any way, take away from my broader point about the Yorubacentric—or more specifically Lagoscentric—provincialism of Tinubu’s government.

The NNPC’s official response to my column, which asserted that merit alone determines staffing decisions, is a load of unvarnished drivel. In a plural society like Nigeria, meritocracy is never the sole determinant of appointments; symbolic representation and political expediency often play decisive roles.

Moreover, the NNPC is far from a paragon of merit-driven excellence. Its inefficiency and dysfunction are legendary. A truly meritocratic organization would not consistently deliver the subpar performance for which the NNPC is infamous.

There are, of course, agencies of government in Nigeria that have distinguished themselves because of the quality of people who head or headed them. 

Given the well-known, inherent weakness of institutions in Nigeria, government agencies habitually assume the character, temperaments, and expertise of their heads. For example, NAFDAC used to be vibrant, visible, and virile because of the vivaciousness and vitality of Dora Akunyili. 

Through her bold leadership, counterfeit drug syndicates were exposed, and public confidence in the agency soared. Tragically, in the years since she left the agency, it has receded into near oblivion. Few now rely on its assurances, which is a far cry from its former prominence. 

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) became a household name and a reference point for fighting corruption in Nigeria because of the vigor, sincerity, and incorruptibility that Nuhu Ribadu brought to his work as its head. 

He famously rejected a $15 million bribe from a politician, an unprecedented act that inspired my paternal uncle to name his son Ribadu. (After letting my uncle know that Ribadu is the name of a town in Adamawa State and not a given name, we still chuckle about the oddity of a Ribadu Kperogi whenever the topic comes up!) Today, the EFCC struggles to maintain even a fraction of the credibility it once had.

The late Hamman Tukur’s fearlessness and forthrightness gave visibility and verve to the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC). Now no one hears about the commission anymore.

 Yemi Kale’s tenure at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) similarly transformed what was once a lackluster agency into a cornerstone of policy and economic analysis. His analytical rigor and commitment to transparency made the NBS a respected institution in Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape. 

Today, however, the NBS struggles to maintain its once-sterling reputation. It has succumbed to the fate of NAFDAC, EFCC, and RMAFC. 

So, I recognize the importance of merit in the choice of leadership.

However, the NNPC isn’t amenable to the merit-driven transformational leadership we saw in NAFDAC, EFCC, RMAFC, and NBS. 

It’s a conduit for patronage and the dispensation of favors to cronies. Choice of its headship is therefore necessarily political. That means people are justified to refract the choice of its leadership from the lenses of Nigerian identitarian politics. 

 

    

 

 

Warning by the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to Nigerians not to expect the passage of the 2025 budget before January 31, 2025 aptly foretells the uncertainty and gloom that will mark the country’s 2025 economic outlook. Chairman, Senate Committee on Media and Publicity, Yemi Adaramodu, said in Abuja that the joint committee of the Senate and House of Representatives on Appropriation would start meeting on January 7, 2025 to take budget defense by heads of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).

He said the earliest the outcome of the joint committee work would be presented for consideration by the Senate would be January 31, 2025. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on Wednesday, December 18, 2024; exactly two weeks to the end of the year. This is contrary to the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) 2007 which stipulates that the Appropriation Bill shall be presented by the President to the National Assembly not later than September 30th of each year.

This late presentation of the national budget by Mr. President connotes the country’s relapse into distorted and uncertain budget cycle, contrary to the regular January to December fiscal year. A national budget is a crucial comprehensive financial plan which outlines a country’s projected income (revenue) and expenses (expenditures) over a fiscal year.

A national budget plays a critical role in shaping a country’s economic policies, allocating resources and promoting sustainable economic growth. It will usually contain the fiscal planning, providing for infrastructural development, debt management (borrowing, repayment, and debt servicing); projecting inflation, interest rates, crude oil production and price levels.

In all jurisdictions, the existence of the national budget makes for transparency and accountability in government spending, ensuring that funds are used efficiently and effectively. Therefore, for each fiscal year, it is the running budget that provides the guide and direction of socio-economic progress or otherwise of the nation.

As it were for Nigeria, that the ‘life’ of the 2024 budget is being extended to some months into 2025 clearly shows the dangers ahead. The socio-political and economic factors at play in 2024 are not necessarily the same for 2025; which is why the budget assumptions for 2025 are markedly different from those of the previous years.

The 2024 budget assumed an inflation rate of 21 per cent; but all through the year, hyperinflationary trend persisted—such that by end-November 2024, the rate stood at 34.6 per cent. Most disturbingly, rather than the Government making an assumption for 2025 in tandem with the spiking inflation rate trend, its 2025 budget proposal carries an utterly unrealistic assumed inflation rate of 15 per cent!

This inflation rate (15 per cent) presents the entire 2025 budget proposal as being built on faulty foundation. This is because more than ever before, the factors driving the high inflationary trend remain very potent. Food scarcity/insecurity in Nigeria is yet at its worst: leading to over 40 per cent food inflation for several consecutive months this year.

Imported inflation also remains active, essentially because of the crashing of the Naira in the foreign exchange (FX) market. The more the quantum of the local currency deployed to procuring the dollar for importation of raw materials, machineries and other inputs, the more costly the finished products—locally. This is a cost-push factor.

The fiscal operations of the Government as well as a huge ‘informal’ economy also lead to so much money in circulation—a lot outside the financial system. This obviously remains one of the core drivers of the high inflationary trend in the economy. In part, this account for why the fight against high inflation by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), using hikes in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has yielded little or no results.

Again, on the part of the Government, it is also too hypothetical to project that crude oil production in 2025 will stand at 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd). In reality, Nigeria in several years has not been able to hit oil production level of 1.5 mbpd. Indeed, the 2024 budget is based on 1.78 mbpd production level—but has never been achieved.

Given what has been happening in the oil and gas sector in Nigeria (and globally) in recent times, it is overly ambitious/optimistic to attain such a huge jump in oil production volume. Raging oil theft, pervasive pipeline vandalism, massive organized sabotage, coupled with energy transition that has seen most International Oil Companies (IOCs) leaving Nigeria in droves—all pose deadly threats to the sector. 

According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production level which stood at 1.4 mbpd in October 2024, only inched up to 1.41 mbpd in November. It is therefore rather otiose or whimsical for the Government to propose the 2025 budget based on an oil production level of 2.06mbpd.

It also beats the imagination as to how the Federal Government arrived at using an exchange rate of N1500 to the US dollar as basis for the 2025 budget. This is as against the subsisting exchange rate of about N1700/$; and which is very likely to deteriorate further in the months ahead.

Indeed, a reputable investment and research company—Afrinvest—in its latest study, has projected that the Naira will depreciate to N1804/$ at the official window of the FX market in 2025. Afrinvest said that it anticipates “that exchange rate volatility would persist in 2025, albeit at a modest pace. Our prognosis is hinged on the belief that the CBN would be constrained from adequately meeting market demand on a consistent basis, as the recent FX reserves accretion was largely driven by inflows from inorganic sources, including those with stringent conditions on usability.”

Afrinvet’s report titled “Beyond the Rhetoric: Transforming Reforms to Tangibles,” detailed a number of factors that could drive the anticipated decline of Naira in the FX market. In this regard it needs be noted that a chunk of the FX reserves is majorly inflow from Foreign Portfolio Investors (FDIs), drawdowns on foreign loans and proceeds of dollar bonds.

The much anticipated rise in oil proceeds is yet to materialize due to the scorching constraints facing the sector; non-oil export is also not experiencing a boom yet. Neither is much coming into Nigeria via Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)—owing to the obviously uncompetitive business environment. No wonder, Nigeria has been witnessing an exodus of many blue chip companies.

Continued dissonance over some critical policies will certainly put a drag on the economy in 2025, and thereafter. Specifically, President Tinubu’s hard stance on the Tax Reform Bills already before the National Assembly is opposed to inclusivity and negotiation. A number of critical stakeholders have called for the withdrawal of those Bills for more consultations and deliberations: the National Economic Council (NEC), Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) and several geo-political groups, to name a few. 

Without a doubt, whatever becomes of those Bills stand to rub off positively or otherwise on the Nigerian economy in 2025 and beyond. Unfortunately, Mr. President’s pronouncement on those Bills during his maiden media chat recently amounted to foreclosure of further discussions on them. Even if the Bills end up being forced down the throat of economic agents, there could be massive hidden resistance to realizing their intendments.  

On the background of all these is the existential threat posed by insecurity in the land. Although the insecurity in the country is shrouded in propaganda, in reality the fragile situation is a serious counterpoise to meaningful investment drive. In all climes, security of life and property is a prerequisite for FDIs and other investment inflows.

In all, it will take something like a miracle for the Nigerian economy to make any appreciable progress in 2025, given the factors analyzed above. In particular, the ‘faulty’ foundation of the 2025 budget makes it prone to a multiplicity of pitfalls. It’s all a leap in the dark!

 

The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos.  

 

         

 

 

 

    

 

 

Niger Republic Head of State, Brigadier-General Abdourahmane Tchiani, on Christmas night, December 25, 2024, accused Nigeria of conspiring with France to destabilise his country. France, he claimed, is working with terrorist groups to undermine Niger’s security, adding that: “Nigerian authorities are not unaware of this underhanded move.” He also claimed that the Nigerian government had been paid huge sums by France to establish a military base in Northern Nigeria.

Tchiani’s claims might have been partly based on assertions eleven days earlier by Nigerian health practitioner, Shehu Mahdi, alleging the presence of French troops in Nigeria. He had backed this with a video purportedly featuring Nigerian and French military officers.

Mahdi, apparently based on the video, had written: “Just listen to the clip below to enable you understand that Tinubu and Co are taking Nigerians for a ride, for granted, betraying all our laws, insulting our collective intelligences and on a journey to mortgage and destroy Nigeria. It is left for conscious Nigerians to open their eyes wide, act wisely, with precision, and be willing to sacrifice anything for the survival of Nigeria that few wicked people are bent on destroying. Niger is kicking them out, Nigeria is bringing them in! It seems like we will stay colonized forever! With this terrorism will never end. But why are African leaders so stupid? What in the world are we doing to ourselves? What good is France other than to steal and to destroy?” 

When I read this, I felt some sympathy for Mahdi because he is a person who seems incapable of differentiating reality from falsehood. His pranks and claims can be so childish and bizarre, that they border on some medical condition. For instance, in 2021 Mahdi accused then Katsina State Governor, Bello Masari and some of his officials, of a N52 billion corruption scandal.

He was arrested but claimed he was sick and could not stand trial. When the judge insisted he must appear in court, he was carried like an invalid with neck and back braces and crutches. In the court room he was weeping. After the hearing, he was returned to his cell where, unknown to him, the security team had installed hidden cameras. Immediately Madhi got in, he packed the crutches to a corner, readjusted the mosquito net over his bed, and resumed normal activities.

Mahdi, who identifies with a group that claims Islamic terrorists and bandits in Nigeria are liberation fighters, was a foot soldier of the infernal Abacha regime which from 1993 to 1998 imposed a reign of terror on the country. In one of the most heinous crimes of that regime, the conscientious journalist, Bagauda Kaltho, was abducted and has not been seen since then. In 2022 Mahdi tried to exculpate the Abacha regime from Bagauda’s murder by spinning a yarn that the journalist was a terrorist who killed himself while planting a bomb at the Durbar Hotel, Kaduna. But Mahdi was apparently not well briefed. For instance, he claimed he was in the vicinity of the blast on December 21, 1995 while, in truth, that blast was on January 18, 1996. Mahdi claimed that within two hours of the blast, he personally briefed the then Military Administrator of Kaduna State, Lawal Jafaru Isa, about the blast and the identity of the bomber, and that the next day he gave a similar briefing to then Head of State, General Sani Abacha. When contacted, Isa said he could not recall such briefings. On the other hand, Madhi’s other witness, Abacha is dead.

Thirdly, while Mahdi claimed that the Abacha regime was within two hours aware that the Durba bomber was Bagauda, the facts on ground show that until the end of that inglorious regime 27 months later, it was desperately trying to unravel the victim.

Mahdi is also involved in all sorts of controversies. For instance, when he was arrested in February, 2024, he claimed that it was because he had called on President Bola Tinubu to probe former President Muhammadu Buhari and some top officials of his government. But erstwhile Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, clarified that Mahdi had been arrested for trying to take advantage of his wife, Aisha, for a sum of $500,000.

It has now turned out that what Mahdi has been spreading on the internet as the video of French military presence in Nigeria in 2024, was actually a video shot in 2013, that is, eleven years earlier.

So, if the Nigerien government had put any store on Madhi’s video, it showed the low quality of its intelligence system.

Nigerian government officials have been quite prompt and direct on Tchiani accusations. Information Minister, Mohammed Idris Malagi, clarified that: “These claims exist solely in the realm of imagination, as Nigeria has never engaged in any overt or covert alliance with France – or any other country – to sponsor terrorist attacks or destabilise the Niger Republic in the wake of the undemocratic change in the leadership of that country.”

National Security Adviser, NSA, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, in dismissing claims of a foreign military base in Nigeria, said: “Even England, which colonised Nigeria, never stationed soldiers here. When France wanted to bring its troops, we refused. Why should we agree now?”

Foreign Affairs Minister, Yusuf Tuggar, also explained that: “As brothers and neighbours, Nigeria and Niger share deep historical and cultural ties, underscored by trade and economic interdependence. These enduring connections are reminders of our intrinsically linked destinies. Therefore, unfounded allegations cause needless tensions that could cause disaffection and threaten the collective progress of our region”.

While these are good reactions, we must know that our brothers and sisters in Niger Republic may not believe us. Besides, Niger has also accused Nigeria of economic sabotage. Also, the military of both countries have joint anti-terrorist patrols and operations.

So, before matters get out of hand, the Tinubu government needs to move quickly to douse tensions. Nigeria is like a person carrying burning coals in its hands; it has no time for debates or brickbats. It should immediately send emissaries to Niamey. It can follow up with a meeting between President Tinubu and General Tchiani.

Nigeriens and Nigerians on both sides of the colonial border are same people with same language and culture. We face the same issues of mass unemployment, high inflation, serious insecurity and high costs of fuel. Therefore, it is in our collective interests to work together, avoid unnecessary conflicts and concentrate on our old project of borderless, integrated communities, not just in our region, but continent-wide.

Nigeria as the bigger brother who also has no fears of foreign invasion, should take the first step. So, when is Nuhu Ribadu going to Niamey?

It’s a new year, a year that will possibly see to the passage and implementation of the People’s Bill, also known as the Tax Reform Bills. For Nigerian workers, the conversation surrounding this legislation is not just a political or economic issue but a matter of personal and collective empowerment. Following the recent call for its withdrawal by Joe Ajaero, President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), it is imperative to dispel any misconceptions and highlight the truth.

Joe Ajaero’s call for the withdrawal of the Tax Reform Bill raises questions that I believe demand serious scrutiny. Are other Labour members in agreement with his stance, or is this an isolated position? Has there been adequate consultation with unions, economic experts, and the workers who stand to gain the most from this legislation? With breakdowns of the bill consistently shared in the media, I wonder if Ajaero has taken the time to truly study its provisions. Is his opposition rooted in legitimate concerns or a misunderstanding of the bill’s intent and structure? To me, the Tax Reform Bill is not just another policy document; it is an initiative aimed at ensuring a more inclusive and equitable economy for all Nigerians.

Tax Reform Bill is more concerned about the masses, especially Nigerian workers. The Bills bring targeted relief to Nigerians by exempting those earning up to ₦1 million annually from PAYE taxes and reducing rates for salaries below ₦1.7 million monthly. Essentials like food, healthcare, education, and electricity are zero-rated for VAT, transport, rent, and baby products, directly reducing living costs. These measures prioritize affordability and financial relief for low and middle-income earners.

Small businesses, long regarded as the backbone of the Nigerian economy, are set to benefit from an increased tax exemption threshold, now raised from ₦25 million to ₦50 million in annual turnover. This means many small enterprises will enjoy full exemptions from company income tax and withholding tax, thereby reducing operating costs and enabling growth. Simplified tax processes further ease compliance, encouraging formalization and transparency. For larger businesses, the corporate income tax rate has been lowered from 30% to 25%. Additionally, the introduction of the Office of Tax Ombud will ensure swift resolution of disputes and protect taxpayers from arbitrary assessments. These are just a few of the benefits, and the Tax Reform Bill is truly focused on you, the Nigerian people. It ensures that Nigerians, from hardworking workers to small business owners, benefit from a more equitable and supportive tax system.

 

In addition to the proposed changes, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has also demonstrated a clear intention to modernize the tax administration system. President Tinubu’s moves emphasize simplifying and making the tax process more transparent, while also protecting taxpayers’ rights. The government has been actively engaging with stakeholders, including the private sector, to ensure that the reforms align with the needs of businesses, especially small enterprises. The emphasis on reducing the corporate income tax rate from 30% to 25% is a clear indication of the government’s commitment to attracting both local and foreign investment. This reduction is expected to stimulate job creation, promote business growth, and ultimately enhance the economic environment.

Furthermore, the government has been working to harmonise tax policies across different states, aiming to eliminate overlapping levies that have historically hindered business operations. The bill now gives 60% of VAT revenue to the states where goods and services are consumed. This means states with more consumption will receive more funds, helping them improve services like roads, schools, and healthcare. With the bills, states will rely less on federal funding and have more control over their finances, allowing them to better meet the needs of their people and grow their economies. These actions underline the government’s dedication to creating a more investor-friendly economy.

In conclusion, Nigerian workers should be aware that the Tax Reform Bill will bring relief through reduced company income taxes, unlimited VAT input claims, and other reforms that will lower tax burdens and business costs. These changes will make businesses more profitable, enabling them to retain existing workers and create new jobs, driving expansion and promoting a more robust economy.

 

The Tax Reform Bill is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape Nigeria’s economic sector in favour of its people. Nigerian workers deserve nothing less than the truth, and they deserve to see this bill implemented to realise its full potential.

 

Arabinrin Atoyebi is the technical assistant, broadcast media to the executive chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).

 

“I find it interesting that everybody defines me as being Nigerian. I identify less with the country than with the specific ethnicity [Yoruba]. That’s what I really am. I have nothing in common with the people from the north of the country, Boko Haram, where Islamism is. Those were our ethnic enemies and yet you end up being lumped in with those people”

“My point is that the only authentic identity for the African is the tribe… I am Nigerian because the white man created Nigeria and gave me that identity. I am black because the white man constructed black to be as different as possible from his white. But I was Igbo before the white man came.”-Chimamanda Adibie

In regard of the first excerpt above Badenoch is guilty of generalisation and lack of empathy for the cause of promoting Nigerian  national integration and little else. In which case, she belongs to the camp of the majority of Nigerians who are similarly alienated from contemporary Nigeria. Her real offence boils down to Marshall McLuhan’s concept of the “medium is the message”

‘The medium is the message” is a phrase created by Marshall McLuhan which sums up that the medium through which we choose to communicate holds as much, if not more, value than the message itself; that the form of a medium embeds itself in the message’. If, therefore, Badenoch is not a potential Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, UK, I doubt she would have provoked the current agitation of Nigerian commentators. 

Similarly, conflating the entire Islamic North with the precolonial Sokoto caliphate is a category mistake to which we are all prone and care less about. It is reflected in such Yoruba local parlance as Gambari pa Fulani, ko le jo nnu (that a Gambari kills a Fulani is of no concern or consequence, they are understood as six and half a dozen). A ponle ni malla, Hausa ni Hausa jé (calling Hausa a malla is superfluous, Hausa is Hausa).

In his typical diabolical humour, Olubadan Asanike once issued a warrant of arrest on Audu Sokoto. Search parties reported they could not found Audu Sokoto but found another Audu called Audu Kano. Asanike promptly ordered the arrest of the latter as a good enough.

Any agitation beyond this amounts to scapegoating the top British politician

for the ugly political reality of Nigeria. Badenoch’s outburst is the symptom of a deeper underlying malaise with a deep tap root in colonial and precolonial Nigeria. As Anthony Kirk Green, soberly reflected, “The tragedy of 1967 is that many of its seeds were not, as is often claimed, sown in October or even July 1966, but in the 1950s or, as some see it, in 1914 or maybe in 1900 itself.

Nigeria has gotten this nasty habit of provoking the worst instinct from her citizens and then turn around to blame them for commensurate behaviour. Among Badenock’s critics are worse culprits including certified felons and nation wreckers who have stolen Nigeria blind; the oil subsidy scandal rogues and thieves, government spokesmen who openly propagated genocidal hatred against the Igbos; those who would deliberately lacerate Nigeria’s cleavages with unconscionable Muslim/Muslim Presidential ticket.

Amongst them are those who follow the Buhari precedent to institute Yoruba parochial and discriminatory overcompensation; who arrogantly fostered apartheid rule over Kaduna state. Among them would number those who support the institutionalisation of Almajiranchi; who employed political sharia to subvert a president who does not share their ethno-religious identity. Not to talk of a rogue Judiciary.

They bury their heads deep in the sand like the ostrich, and choose to break the mirror for projecting their ugly but correct image back to them. With or without Badenoch, isn’t the most popular refrain in the country today is Nigeria is more divided now than at any time of post civil war Nigeria?

I’m not a fan of right wing politics, let alone the neo Trumpian extreme right radicalism posturing. They generally tend towards bigotry; the pseudo ideologues, the demagogues and sundry political mercenaries who without real ideological convictions merely employ the platform as a tool for political gain.

I had earlier taken the position to refrain from joining the fray until we started seeing a trend of gross and chauvinistic demonisation of Badenoch complete with a left handed salute to her esteemed parentage

For those who thrive on dealing with the symptom while ignoring the underlying disease,let us provide authoritative retrospective context to the fulminations of Mrs Badenoch.

In a typically honest appraisal of the ugly Nigerian reality, His Eminence, Sultan Saad Abubakar, on the 29th of January 2021, said “We are not saying Fulanis are not part of the kidnappings as mentioned by the Secretary of Miyetti Allah, seven to eight kidnappers arrested are Fulanis, but that doesn’t mean every Fulani is a criminal, no they are not”. I wholeheartedly agree with him.

On May 19th 2019, Mr Nigeria himself former President Olusegun Obasanjo lamented what has become of Nigeria  “It is no longer an issue of lack of education and lack of employment for our youths in Nigeria which it began as.“It is now West African Fulanisation, African Islamisation”.

On the 24th March 2018, the man who should know, Theophilus Danjuma fingered the Nigerian state as complicit in the genocidal atrocities being perpetrated on the Middle Belt Christian community “If you wait for the armed forces to stop the killing, you all die one-by-one,”

“The ethnic cleansing must stop in Taraba State and other parts of Nigeria. otherwise, Somalia will be a child’s place. I urge all of you to be at alert and defend your country. defend your territory, defend your state,”

On June 5th 2022, two days preceding the attack on the Owo Catholic church, the chairman of the Miyetti Allah, Bello Bodejo, “addressed a mammoth crowd of Fulani pastoralists from across Nigeria and beyond and “rained curses on some state governors whom, he claimed, chased Fulani pastoralists away from their states assuring them that peace will continue to elude them until they reverse their decisions “We know our friends and enemies and we will act at the right time,”

On the 11th of June 2022, Professor Wole Soyinka responded “He (Governor Rotimi Akeredolu) was targeted and there is no question about that. It was not an accident and it passed a message to the rest of us. That is why I’m here. I want the governor to know that we have received the message”.

“We understand it and we came to sympathise with him that he was selected as a medium of that message”

On the 27th July 2018 ‘a major actor in the 1967-70 Nigerian civil war, Gen.Alani Akinrinade(rtd) took a cursory look at what Nigeria has become 39 years after its end and declared “I regret fighting in that war” which he says “could have been avoided if the Aburi Accord (reached in Ghana) was not unilaterally jettisoned by General (Yakubu) Gowon”.

“it was useless fighting that war” and regrets his participation in it. On the Buhari charge that Nigerian national unity is not negotiable, Akinrinade remarked that: “Anything that’s not negotiable cannot make progress.”

On 7th August 2021 Obasanjo asked the Beninoise authorities to grant Sunday Igboho asylum, and not to return him to Nigeria.

On the 1st of May 2022 ‘Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka met with Yoruba Nation campaigner, Sunday Adeyemo also known as Sunday Ighoho.

Also at the meeting was Professor Banji Akintoye”.

Is it a coincidence that all these personalities are Yoruba save the Sultan? All these in a situation in which Buhari was playing Sinn Fein to the IRA of the Fulani militia.

Further back in time was the corrosive and subversive contribution of the British colonialists who nurtured a relationship of hatred and enmity as the legacy of colonial rule to Nigeria. Testimonies abound:

“Lugard pledged to the Sultan of Sokoto the commitment of the British administrators to protect the Muslims of the north from Christian proselytization. Sir Theodore Adams went as far as to say, in 1941, that the emirs considered the Northern provinces as a separate country and that enforced cooperation with the South would lead to a demand for ‘Pakistan”

In its 1958 editorial, the Time magazine captured the scene at the London conference on the independence of Nigeria in 1957 with a sense of foreboding, “Under the great chandeliers of the Lancaster House music room, the Premiers (Nnamdi Azikiwe, Ahmadu Bello and Obafemi Awolowo) bickered, shot insults back and forth like poisoned darts.”

According to Ruth First “a frequently heard quip was that if all the Africans were to leave Nigeria, the Southern and Northern administrations could go to war”

“In administration, in land policy, in a dozen different fields of colonial government, the administration reinforced not the unity of the colony, but the differences between North and South”

In her day, Lady Lugard had contrasted “the higher types of the Northern States” with the “cannibal pagans” of the South. “The nearer to the coast, the worse was the native type… Sorcerers, idolaters, robbers and drunkards, they were indeed no better than their country” pined Flora Shaw”

‘Aided by his wife, Lugard’s fabrications still colour Whitehall’s attitudes to Nigeria, which can be summed up as pale-skinned Moslem North good, black-skinned Christian South bad’

Fast forward to contemporary Nigeria and the siege laid to the South-West by preponderantly Fulani marauders and what you get is a sense of dejavu

Dr Olufemi Adegoke died in the thick of another Yoruba nationalist resistance politics in 2021 against the degrading invasion of a Fulani herdsmen militia.

For people who were not resident in the South West at the material time, it may prove difficult to appreciate the provocative sense of degradation and helplessness.

Victims are seldom constrained to view their perceived tormentors with detached objectivity. Who feels it, knows it.

It begs the question: historically, how should the Yoruba characterise the caliphate seizure of Ilorin and their instrumentality to the collapse of the Oyo empire especially as the theme keeps recurring in subsequent history of the Yoruba?

Reminiscing on the tragedy of Ilorin, Samuel Johnson noted: “Ilorin now passed into the hands of foreigners, the Fulanis, who had been invited as friends and allies”.

In sum, this was the socialisation Badenoch received on Nigeria at the time of her father’s death.

•Postscript: For the attention of American Abroad whose brain power belongs in the category of his idol, Benjamin Osuntokun. Your friend was actually the mischief maker!

With just five months to hit his midterm, Gov. Umo Eno has announced that he would be holding 10 town hall meetings and three summits in 2025 to obtain feedbacks and generate new ideas to reset his policy thrusts. The town halls will hold in the 10 federal constituencies of the state while the summits will hold in Uyo with focus on power generation; tourism and business development. At each town hall, the people would be expected to summit a memo to the government detailing the important areas of needs in their communities. These would be collated and incorporated into the 2026 budget. This is a typical bottom-up approach in management decision and leadership process. By involving local communities, individuals or village organizations and grassroots initiatives, the government wants ordinary people to be involved in decision-making, choose what best serve their needs and take ownership of government’s programs. In other words, the governor wants the ‘R’ in his ARISE agenda to originate from the people.

Sociologists and development economists believe that bottom-up approach, unlike top-down approach, prioritizes local needs and context; endears government to the people, enhances community and rural development and minimizes inter-communal rifts. Even before the first town hall meeting holds in February, I can almost guess correctly what the litany of requests would consist of: good roads; water; healthcare; more teachers for community schools; subsidizing farm inputs and such stuffs. Town halls are very widely used in the western democracies to provide a platform for exchange of ideas between the citizens and their leaders. This would be the first time an administration in the state has adopted this approach is fashioning out its policies.

 But we’ve always had summits. Gov. Udom Emmanuel held education summit towards the end of his administration. Obong Victor Attah had economic summit in 2002. Umo Eno’s three summits will bring together experts and professionals in power generation and tourism specifically to generate ideas on how to develop the sectors. The governor wants the state to have a 24-hour electricity supply in 2026. Akwa Ibom State has an independent power plant built over 20 years ago, but unfortunately, it has not achieved its objectives. It has been mismanaged and I understand that the place is a haven of corruption, so much so that it is hugely indebted to its gas supplier. Recently, the government instituted an audit into its finances and assets; and two months ago, its chief executive was fired for incompetence and dereliction of duty. Part of the problem was the inhibitive regulatory framework of the electricity sector which barred states from generating and distributing their own electricity. Now that the law has been amended and state governments can now generate and distribute their own electricity to their people, the power summit should bring together egg heads in that sector, from across the country and beyond, to sit together and develop a step-by-step guide on how to achieve a stable power supply for the state.

Tourism is also another priority area for the state. With its own airline, two five- star hotels, an 18-hole golf course, a long beautiful white-sand beach, a world-class football stadium and three smaller ones, Akwa Ibom State is easily Nigeria’s tourist destination for leisure and business. A recreation centre comprising a nine-hole par three golf course and a 10,000-capacity conference facility are in the works in the heart of the city. With these facilities, the government believes that tourism should be developed into a viable industry and the expectation is that the summit will develop a roadmap on how best to achieve this. Akwa Ibom has six months of dry season beginning from late October and lasting through April. This means a tourism calendar that consists of golf tournaments; football matches; beach football and volley ball and cultural festivals could be developed to attract visitors to the state. The third summit the government intends to hold this year would be with Akwa Ibom people who have reached the peak of their careers in different areas – finance; oil & gas; aviation; medicine; media; the professions; military; etc. These persons would be constituted into a network to serve many purposes, chief among which is a think tank to government and mentors to the younger generations.

I’m particularly fascinated by the governor’s mentorship development plan for Akwa Ibom youths, most of whom have had no role models in their lives. In the absence of good role models and mentors, these youngsters only have social media influencers; politicians and political thugs to look up to, and the result has been emergence of decadent and deviant behaviours in them. For them, election rigging and electoral violence is the only sure means to attain political power and politics is the only way to make a living or make big money. But a good mentorship program helps in instilling increased confidence in the mentees, in addition to offering career guidance, skill development; problem-solving skills; networking opportunities; fresh perspectives to life and leaving a lasting legacy, among other benefits. In addition, I ask the government to bring back Boys’ Scout; Girls Guide and Man o’ War to our schools. These organizations helped to mould our character when we grew up, and there’s no reason why our youths should not benefit from them. This year should be very hectic for the governor. I wish him the best.

A section of the media often perceived as critical of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his administration, and his political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), has taken an unexpected and commendable decision.

ThisDay Newspaper, through its Board of Editors, has named President Tinubu its Man of the Year 2024. In their statement, the editors noted: “In the face of mounting challenges and hardships, the President has remained determined and unfazed, marching on with audacious reforms to transform Nigeria.” They concluded that no individual, on a fair balance of scales, could challenge the President’s impact in 2024.

This decision is a laudable demonstration of journalistic integrity. It speaks to the critical role of the media in promoting a fair and egalitarian society. When viewed in the context of public perception, particularly of ThisDay and its sister outlet, Arise News, this recognition is even more significant. Owned by Prince Nduka Obaigbena, both platforms have been regarded as highly critical of the Tinubu administration, a perception that has fueled skepticism in certain quarters.

This honor on President Tinubu as Man of the Year, tells of how ThisDay challenges this narrative and reinforces the media’s commitment to recognizing merit and leadership beyond biases.

In their evaluation of President Tinubu, the editors wrote: “From merely providing leadership to introducing very unpopular but promising reforms, Tinubu has proven to be a daring and gritty leader, driven by conviction rather than sentiment.”

They mentioned key reforms, including the removal of the petroleum subsidy, floating of the Naira, fighting for local government autonomy, proposed tax reforms among others. 

They, however, acknowledged missteps in Mr. President’s early days, but ThisDay noted that Tinubu has remained focused on his goals, undeterred by external noise and criticism.

Unfortunately, some public officials avoid platforms like ThisDay or Arise News, labeling them as “oppositional” media. This mindset creates undue pressure on media houses to align with political narratives instead of maintaining their role as independent truth tellers.

Despite these challenges, ThisDay and Arise News have built formidable reputations, sparking national conversations and holding leaders accountable. Their willingness to critique and, at the same time, recognize the administration’s achievements, all these tells of their professionalism.

The decision to honor President Tinubu after rigorous scrutiny is simply telling us that criticism and recognition can coexist in responsible journalism. It also encourages leaders to strive for excellence, knowing their efforts will be acknowledged regardless of past criticisms.

What ThisDay’s choice brings to fore is that the media has no role to cheerlead the government or act as an unrelenting adversary. Instead, it is to critically evaluate leadership and promoting societal progress through balanced reporting.

As I congratulate President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for this recognition, I must commend ThisDay Newspaper and its Board of Editors for this bold and professional decision. It challenges stereotypes, reinforces the media’s role as an unbiased observer, and sends a powerful message: leadership and achievements should be recognized, regardless of perceived alliances.

On a final note, as citizens, we must support and protect the independence of our media for the collective good of society. Thank you, ThisDay Newspapers, thank you, Prince Nduka Obaigbena, for reminding us that the media has an unmistaken role in shaping a better Nigeria.