IN May, 2016, a young man got abducted by three men. They drugged him and gouged out his two eyes and testicles. According to the Daily Sun of South Africa, police later found the “fresh balls” of the victim in one of the suspects’ refrigerator. It was a suspected case of Muti. Andrew Kenny, a South African newspaper Op-Ed writer, penned it. Kenny was bothered by mounting cases of what he called desecration of humanity, as demonstrated by rampant cases of Muti killings. In Muti, the human victim’s body parts are harvested for rituals. In the piece he did for the BizNews newspaper, Kenny made a vivid portrait of what he called “a world of horror and fear” which he said Cyril Ramaphosa’s country had slipped into. 

If Nigeria of last week was a fallen combatant and an epitaph in its memory needed to be written, it will be that poetic, idiomatic expression, “when it rains, it pours.” When unpleasant things happen, they appear to come in quick succession or clusters.

Nigerian horrors are a legion. Some of them came were on parade last week. The first was the ruckus generated by the results of the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB’s) Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME). Apparently overwhelmed by glaring evidence of wrongs in the results, JAMB Registrar, Prof Ishaq Oloyede, at a press conference, admitted that indeed, there were system glitches caused by one of JAMB’s two technical service providers and which occurred in 157 centres nationwide. This invariably affected the results of 379,997 candidates. JAMB linked the discrepancies to faulty server updates in its Lagos and south-east zones. In the process of confirming the glitches, Oloyede took ownership and responsibility for them and ostensibly saddened, he went emotional and shed tears.

Then the Nigerian horror occurred. It is the elephant in the room whose ubiquity has, for almost a century now, ruined ethnic relations in Nigeria. To be specific, it is the age-long phobia for and acrimony against selves among Igbo and Yoruba people. Oloyede and his Yoruba team deliberately failed the 379,997 candidates, majority of whom were Igbo, the narrative began. Nothing would appease those persuaded by that obvious rant. How did a Professor of Islamic Studies come to head JAMB? Some others asked. Victims of the technical glitches became weaponized as synecdoche, as a part representing the whole. They figuratively stand for the unceasing “war” between Yoruba and Igbo. So many tropes were built in its service.

Though horrific, using ethnicity as lens of relations between Igbo and Yoruba didn’t start today.  As aptly put by James S. Coleman in his Nigeria: Background to Nationalism (1958), “from the beginning, Azikiwe’s newspapers glorified the achievements of individual Ibos at home and abroad, but seldom gave publicity to the activities of prominent Yorubas; they claim, on the contrary, that Azikiwe carried on a sustained program of character assassination against them.”

The exchange of acrimony between Yoruba and Igbo became so rife during Dr. Okechukwu Ikejiani’s time as Chairman of the Nigerian Railways with allegations that he filled the Railways with Igbo. Ikejiani was appointed in 1960. The Yoruba harangued Ikejiani terribly through their newspaper press, the Daily Sketch, especially over his claim of having a DSc from Toronto. Same happened during the VC contest of the University of Lagos in 1965 between incumbent, Prof Eni Njoku and Prof Saburi Biobaku. It degenerated into verbal abuses and exchanges of ethnic bile. As it was then, so it is today.

The harbinger of this ethnic horror between Yoruba and Igbo is the January 1966 coup when Nigeria’s federal structure was unitarized by the military. From then, Nigeria has not recovered from the blow of Aguiyi Ironsi. It has since then been superficially practicing federalism in context but in content, fully runs a unitary government. I went into history to situate the ancient animosity between the two ethnic groups, in the bid to show where the rain began beating the two ethnic groups. Only a federal system in content will cure the incurable malady of mutual hatred between the duo. It is becoming glaring by the day that no preachment can stop this “war’.

As the “war” was being fought, another horror slid in. Patriot Professor Pat Utomi was dragged to the Federal High Court by the Department of State Services (DSS). His crime? He called for and formed a shadow government. Utomi’s patriotism has overtime been assessed from ethnic prism. An Igbo from Delta State, Yoruba, especially those of the persuasion of the Nigerian president, have denigrated his civic engagement of a stagnating federal government whose feel is nil in the lives of the people. The DSS alleged that Utomi’s shadow government was akin to usurping executive authority.

The DSS case against Utomi is a demonstration of the rot in Nigeria’s practice of democracy. Rather than destabilizing the Nigerian state, what Utomi seeks is to canvass the other view. There is no doubting the fact that, in the last two years, the persons in charge of Nigeria’s federal power have performed grossly inadequately. In the shadow government call, I do not see Utomi asking that Tinubu’s effete arrangement should be collapsed. What he offers is a counter formation from which the Tinubu dross can learn. To tenants of Nigeria’s Hammer House of Horror Villa, dissent is criminal and civic engagement, an anathema. The question to ask the DSS is, at what lamentable point did offering civic alternative wear the toga of a coup? When did an alternative opinion constitute national security threat? What is more threatening to Nigeria is the stagnation, and I dare say, regression of Nigeria under its current taskmasters. Utomi’s only crime is his power of re-imagination, his effrontery to have another view.

Yet, another. Let us not dwell on the horror of how Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, prematurely jumped the gun to diagnose the mass failure in JAMB before Oloyede burst his bubble. He subsequently appeared to the rest of Nigeria as a confused man. While his ministry, perhaps in the name of the Nigeria First initiative of the federal government, seems to want to stop the Bilateral Educational Agreement (BEA) scholarship scheme which he inherited, should it be done retroactively? Under the BEA, Nigeria sponsored some students to Russia and some other countries on scholarship. Recently, the ministry seems to be making moves to stop BEA while its engagement with those on its scholarship scheme still subsists. Methinks the most sensible thing to do is to stop subsequent engagements but not to leave students currently on the scheme in the lurch. This violates the principle of fairness. It is only in military regimes that actions are taken this retroactively.  

Yet, another. Yes, Nigeria has a pandemic of ritual killings like the Muti of South and Southern Africa, but the revelation last week by Aminu Jaji, a member of the House of Representatives from Kaura-Namoda/Birnin Magaji Federal Constituency of Zamfara State, ranks like a news from the House of Horror. It is a social signpost of the worsening security situation in Nigeria. According to Jaji, armed insurgents now feed newborns in captivity to their dogs. 

That blood-curdling revelation should galvanize Nigerian authorities into action. Bandits and terrorists are taking over the levers of power. As the week was winding down, the gladsome news that the Federal Government had established a national forest guard system filtered into the airwaves. About 130,000 armed operatives will be recruited to man Nigeria’s 1,129 forest reserves. Each state is to recruit between 2,000 and 5,000 forest guards based on their capacity for this project of curbing the escalating insecurity across Nigeria. That is one exemption from the horror stories that laced our last week. However, it is not without questions. If the states are to employ their own guards into the scheme and pay them, how is the initiative federal? What happens to states like the Southwest which have their own security network called Amotekun? Some of the Amotekun operatives keep an eye on the forests.

The week before, GovSpend, a civic tech platform which peers torchlight into the spending of the FG, gouged out another horror. According to it, between July 2023 and December 2024, the Tinubu government spent the sum of N20.3b to maintain Nigeria’s presidential fleet. The president’s recently acquired sky octopus, an Airbus A330, which cost Nigeria over $100m, was taken to South Africa for a remodeling that will cost Nigerians multiple of millions of dollars. When government calls for belt-tightening and its Capon lives like an oil Shekh as this, it becomes a dissonance that doesn’t resonate with the people.

Like the Muti of South Africa which bothered Andrew Kenny but which the elite chattering classes ignore and probably enjoy, we must be bothered by the horrors of Nigeria. We must speak up about them and change these narratives that have become a refrain in our daily lives.

WHAT is today known as the National Orientation Agency (NOA) is an offspring of the Mass Mobilisation for Self-Reliance, Social Justice and Economic Recovery (MAMSER) which was premiered by Professor Jerry Gana and his team under the military regime of General Ibrahim Babangida in 1987. The body was introduced by the military regime to promote value orientation, self-reliance, and social justice, as well as educate citizens about the political process and encourage participation in elections and the myriads of debates it was consistently engaging the public with. At that time, some of the objectives listed in MAMSER’s enabling decree includes re-orienting Nigerians; campaign against waste and vanity in lifestyle; promotion of public values; campaign to eschew social vices like corruption, dishonesty, and electoral malpractices; campaign to foster national development, as well as encouraging participation in the political process and promoting locally made goods.

Within a short time, MAMSER plugged itself in public consciousness to the extent that the young and the old had its anthems on their lips.  On radio and television, captivating jingles, playlets and drama of all kinds were used to explain government actions, inactions and policies. It was a mass movement. I had pictures of the MAMSER heroics in my head when I was deployed to serve in the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation by the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC). Though I was assigned a beat as a Government House Correspondent and filed stories daily to the Lagos headquarters of the ministry at the time; while also getting published in the weekly and monthly publications, I didn’t feel the vibes that MAMSER created through the service year. Thus, over the years, after Prof. Jerry Gana’s exploits, the NOA, which took over the direct functions of MAMSER had lost its orientation and was constantly presenting the picture of a ‘dead’ and forgotten government parastatal. Even though its parent ministry has also not been doing well over the years, it was, however, easier to forget about the NOA, because the Information Ministry at least presents itself in our faces occasionally.

But as much as time heals, it equally destroys. The biblical book, Ecclesiastes says there is time for everything under the sun. A poet who wrote Time, a work we treated in 100 level Poetry class shows Time as the destroyer of everything including the teeth of the lion with which it crushed bones! Since Time can destroy and heal, it thus can engender the good and the bad. For the NOA, as presently constituted, under the leadership of Alhaji Lanre Isssa-Onilu, maybe we can say that the drought period is over, and that Nigerians are beginning to reap some dividends from the mobilisation agency.  As a result of my early stint with the parent ministry, I would say I usually take interest in its activities. And year after year, it’s been one unpalatable story or the other. Perhaps that makes it easily noticeable when a change has occurred.

As soon as the current management took over, one can see the signs of the good things to come. Aside the launch of The Explainer, as an in-house magazine to provide in-depth analysis and contents on diverse aspects of governance, the agency also made it clear to all that its core mandate would revolve around specific efforts including informing the citizens, educating them and inspiring the Nigerian people into building a great nation. NOA had immediately launched out as one agency with sharp focus on service delivery. And I can see that The Explainer had in several editions taken on the task of breaking down key policies and programmes. One of such is the expansive space it took to explain the benefits of the Tax Reform Bills, which is already being passed into law by the National Assembly. It has equally taken time out to explain the challenges associated with power supply in this era, something I would say, should have been complemented by positive energy from the Ministry of Power. Everyone knows that power is problematic, but no one needed to be told repeatedly that Nigeria’s power problem is more than 60 years old as we often hear from the key drivers of policy in the Power Ministry. Of course, merely engaging in descriptive essays on the problem at hand would only amount to throwing both hands in the air in surrender and that cannot qualify as the hallmark of leadership. Perhaps the NOA equally needs to orientate officials of the ministry on how to show determination in tackling the challenges.

One noticeable thing in the operation of the current NOA is the adoption of digital tools to enhance civic engagement. Insiders in the agency would confirm that the drivers of its policy initiatives had realised the importance of technology in reaching the youthful and tech-savvy population. The body therefore launched the Mobiliser App in March 2024. The app, which is available on both Android and iOS platforms, serves as a hub for accessing information about government policies, programmes and initiatives as well as to provide feedback on government activities. Citizens are being encouraged to partake in the governance process through the “Say Something” tool, where issues can be reported anonymously, to not only provide feedback but to bridge the communication gap between the government and the populace. Though stakeholders in the organisation would contend that the tool equally encourages transparency and accountability in government, it is obvious that all hands must be on the deck to ensure the nation attains the desired level of transparency and accountability. The agency had also launched the Mobiliser App, which is the AI-powered platform called CLHEEAN. This is an acronym for Crime, Lawlessness, Health, Education, Environment, Abuse, and Nationalism. It was launched in July 2024 with the promise that it would function as a virtual assistant to provide real-time information on government initiatives, civic responsibilities, and national values. It was designed to interactively engage citizens in a way that would foster deeper understanding of governmental programmes and ensure the participation of citizens in national development. This is an idea that goes deep into theoretical basis of citizenship and democratic ideals. Democratic-Participant theorists have indicated that open access of citizen-body to governance through the media is an undeniable quality of democratic governance. That presupposes that the more access the citizens are guaranteed, the better it becomes to avoid the democracy paradox-the Achilles heels of democratic governance across the world. 

Because democracy promises more but often delivers little, the people are usually left in a quandy as to whether they have made the right choice by sticking to the governance model. Thus, the type of open access being encouraged by the digital tools of the NOA would serve a good purpose if sustained for a long while. 

Some of the other areas the NOA has been strong in recent years include the revitalisation of national identity and values, the campaign against gender-based violence and partnerships in legislative advocacy. In recent months, the agency has been involved somewhat vigorously, in campaigns to revitalise national identity and values. As contained in some of its publications, the NOA had, to this effect launched the 7 for 7 framework, which is aimed at enhancing the reciprocal commitments between the government and its citizens. The programme promises government’s commitment to guarantee Equality, Democracy, Entrepreneurship, Peace & Security, Inclusivity, Freedom & Justice, and Meritocracy, while it expects the citizens to reciprocate by upholding values including Discipline, Duty of Care, Tolerance, Leadership, Accountability, Environmental Awareness, and Resilience. This is surely a campaign that demands extensive coverage and planning and seeks to engender attitude change in the citizens.  While campaigns like this are not guaranteed a hypodermic-niddle effect, consistency of implementation can, however, ensure a huge success mileage.  Besides that, one can also see the introduction of the Citizens Value Brigade to replace the moribund War Against Indiscipline (WAI) Brigade.  The WAI Brigade initiative was introduced as a contemporary copycat of the policy of General Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon’s iron-fisted rule of the mid-1980s, with the objective of instilling discipline, moral rectitude and alignment with democratic ideals. The current initiative is, however, meant to operate in schools and communities, to promote ethical behaviour and civic responsibility. In this regard, the agency has designated September 16 as the National Symbols Day, with the aim of promoting nationwide awareness and respect for national symbols including the flag, national anthem, and the pledge. Added to that initiative is the integration of citizenship education into the nation’s academic curricula. One of the agency’s publications noted that this initiative is key to shaping the future leaders, and that the agency plans to ensure that Citizenship Studies is introduced as a compulsory subject across all educational levels. 

“This subject will focus on values, ethics, and the history of Nigeria, aiming to inculcate a strong sense of national identity and civic responsibility among students,” the document indicated, adding that the NOA is already collaborating with the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) to integrate value orientation into the mandatory one-year service programme. Apart from promoting programmes such as the digital learning programmes, the NOA has equally been strong on political education-focused initiatives, anti-corruption campaigns in collaboration with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), as well as health awareness campaigns to popularise immunisations and digital birth registration campaign. 

Another area in which the agency has been coming strongly in recent months is the campaign against gender-based violence, a global campaign which Nigeria has recently keyed into. One is impressed that the NOA has intensified its gender-focused initiatives, with the aim of reducing to its barest minimum, issues of Gender-Based Violence (GBV) in the communities. An adjunct of this initiative is the push to promote women participation in governance, and elimination of harmful traditional practices. The agency said in one publication that: “These efforts reflect NOA’s commitment to fostering a more inclusive and equitable society.” It has been observing the annual 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence and launched a nationwide campaign whereby traditional and religious leaders are engaged to address the dangers of GBV, which emphasising the importance of community involvement in creating a violence-free society.

Gradually, one can see that the NOA of today is gradually making the needed change happen. But in a society like ours, where almost every sector is challenged, the good steps being taken by one agency would only get the desired ovation from the public, when such steps are complimented by activities of sister bodies.

WAITING for an African Pope” by my brother, Azu Ishiekwene, made an interesting reading. Azu’s immense fecundity, as usual, his flawless prose, and free-flowing minting and weaving of words will always be a delight anyday. “Waiting for an African Pope” ended while I was still enjoying it! Did Azu argue or canvass for an African pope at this point in time? Not really, in my own opinion, although he gave reasons that can support or justify the choice of one. Since the late Pope Francis was the first Jesuit and cardinal from the Americas (born in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to be specific) “to rise to the top of the papacy”, this, posits Azu, “raises hopes that the next one may come from Africa or Asia”. Another cogent reason given by Azu is that Africa “is the largest growing region for the Catholic Church, with about 20 percent of the church’s 1.4 billion population”, thus giving hope that we may not be far away from seeing “the first Black pope in modern history”. What that means is that there had been Black popes in the past, but that was a long, long time ago, in the 5th century or the Roman-era Africa. The office of the Pope had since been dominated by three European  countries – Italy, Germany, and France – giving the impression (my own interpretation, please!) that this may be another form of (religion) colonialism or imperialism! According to Google, “there have been 266 popes throughout history, of whom 4 in 5 were from Italy.” 

 In this Digital Age and Free World, an office as important as that of the Catholic pope should also be democratised. God, being no respecter of persons and the Holy Spirit also not discriminating among tribes and tongues, what is good for the Caucausians should also be good for the Asians and Africans. Azu also argues that since the deceased pope pitched his tent with the poor, championing a lot of reforms that deliberately made advocacy for the poor a legacy, there is no better way to protect, preserve, advance, and concretise that legacy than to choose the next pope from among the poorest of the poor. This is debatable, though, because a man’s ideology, more than his place of origin or the colour of his skin, is likely to determine where he pitches his tent between the haves and have-nots. Azu, however, highlights a drawback of the African Catholic church – it is a poor church. Says Azu: “The African church may have the fastest-growing flock, but it is also the begging bowl. In a world where money is the bicycle of the gospel, the African church is the largest recipient of many forms of financial aid.” These days, though, the gospel no longer thrives on bicycles but on custom-built supersonic jets, especially where Nigeria’s Pentecostals are concerned!

 Other obstacles listed by Azu include that African cardinals have faced less scrutiny compared with their other colleagues; and then there is the politics of the conclave (where popes are chosen). Since man is intrinsically a political animal, there is politics everywhere you find human beings. And where there is politics, a lot of factors – subjective and objective – come into play. The colour of one’s skin, the region where a candidate comes from, and his ideology will certainly come into play. How many of the cardinals who fought the deceased pope tooth and nail over his reforms, especially his fight against corruption, incompetence and conservatism, will want to see a continuation of the same policies?

 In the end, will a Black pope emerge after the white-coloured smoke funnels from the top of Sistine Chapel, signalling that a choice has been made? Again, why is it a white-coloured smoke that signals success while a black-coloured smoke signals that no decision has been arrived at? Azu does not think a Black pope will emerge because, according to him, the road to change is usually long! And he is right! Jamaican reggae artiste Jimmy Cliff says the road is not only long but also hard. But isn’t 16 centuries a long and hard enough wait for Africa – except, here again, it is a wait for Godot? “The odds, this time, favour yet another Italian pope”, concludes Azu. Each time prophets, pastors, and preachers take such a risk as Azu’s or soccer buffs predict who wins in a football match and fail, I shudder at the perils of making predictions! 

 As if Catholic Rev. Father Oluoma Chinenye John had also read Azu, he was quoted as saying that getting an African pope was not something Catholics in Africa were clamouring for. Did he say it was not desirable? No! He only wanted whoever emerges to have been so chosen by God, arguing that getting an African (simply because he is an African – my own addition, please!) to succeed the deceased pope will make no difference. 

 His exact words: “We are not praying for an African pope. We are praying for a good and holy pope who will shepherd the people. He can be an African, American, European or Asian… Una don hear, ba? All those agitating and clamouring for an African to be the next pope, you miss the point completely. Popes are not chosen on racial sentiments. Even if an African becomes the next pope, it will not give Africans any advantage over others and vice-versa”. Poking fun at Nigeria, he noted that there is nothing like “emilokan” or “it is my turn” in the selection of a pope! Father Oluoma is a person I respect so much for his candour. I always love to listen to him as he makes very serious statements in a light-hearted manner. Another such fellow is Professor PLO Lumumba. 

 But this time around, I want to disagree with Father Oluoma while agreeing with Azu. Whatever criteria is applied to choose the next pope – by God or human beings – nothing should stop an African from making the mark. Why should Blacks always fall behind Whites in the pecking order in all things and at all times, even in things that pertain unto religion, which is touted as our forte in Africa? When will Africa “come of age”, to quote the assassinated Nigerian Head of State, Gen. Murtala Muhammed?   

 That said, the life of Pope Francis should be a challenge to church leaders worldwide. Can the following report about the pope be true? He should have been buried yesterday (Saturday). It goes thus: “Some reports indicate that Pope Francis died leaving only 100 dollars. Yes, a hundred dollars. Less than 90 euros. No house. No bank account. No investment in his name. And yet, he was the head of the Catholic Church. A post that could have earned him about €340,000 a year. But he refused that money. Every year. Since 2013. Why? Because he was a Jesuit, and the Jesuits take a vow of poverty.

 “Rather than living in the luxurious Vatican apartments like his predecessors, he chose to move into the Casa Santa Marta, a simple, modest residence. No gilding. No personal servants. Just a bed, a desk, and his faith. He wore his old worn-out black shoes, refusing traditional red moccasins. He moved in a small Ford Focus while other religious leaders were driving in limousines. He ate with the Vatican employees, not in a private dining room. He simply dressed, without special adornment, just his white outfit and an iron cross. An invisible wealth…

 “While some cling to their property… Pope Francis has chosen to own nothing to offer everything. No millions. No complex wills. Just 100 dollars… and a powerful message: ‘It’s not what you own that matters. That’s what you are. What you do for others.’ The world is shocked… but inspired. At a time when wealth often becomes an ultimate goal, Pope Francis leaves an eternal trace without ever having sought to enrich himself. He did not bequeath any material fortune. He left a moral fortune. A lesson in humility. A vision of service.

 “He wasn’t a luxury Pope! He was a Pope of The Heart. A man who has proved that to live simply is to reign differently. What about you? What will you leave behind? Money? Things? Or a real inspiration?”

 It is difficult not to notice the difference between the religion-preneurs here and the true followers of Jesus Christ as depicted by Pope Francis. Yet, the Bible says in St. Luke 12: 15:  “Take heed, and beware of covetousness: for a man’s life consists not in the abundance of the things which he possesseth.” Matthew 6: 19 -21 says: “Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal: but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal: for where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.” 

 For a moment, please pause and Google “The 10 top richest pastors in Nigeria” and marvel! Tell me, where are folks taking all the riches? Heaven or hell? What with so much poverty – grinding poverty, multi-dimensional poverty – in the midst of their congregation? Why can’t they divest themselves of their stinking riches and give to the poor, like Jesus Christ admonished the rich, young man in Matthew 19: 21-24? Building state-of-the-art cathedrals is not a substitute for taking care of the poor.                         

 Pope Francis is dead – by the time you are reading this (on Sunday), he would have been buried the day before (on Saturday). He would have taken nothing with him – only his soul went with him. I counsel our church-preneurs to listen to Tracy Chapman’s “All that you have is your soul.” Permit me to take just a few lines from it: “Oh my mama told me/Because she say she learned the hard way/Say she want to spare the children/She say don’t give or sell your soul away/Because all that you have is your soul/Don’t be tempted by the shiny apple/Don’t you eat of a bitter fruit/Hunger only for a taste of justice/Hunger only for a word of truth/Because all that you have is your soul/ Why was I such a young fool/Thought I’d made history/…Thought I’d made something that could be mine forever/Found out the hard way one can’t possess another/And all that you have is your soul…”

 Can anyone, from his or her grave, beat God’s words in Psalm 39:6? Or nullify Mark 8: 34 -38? 

 Fare thee well, Pope Francis! The thoughts of your patron saint, the Italian Saint Francis of Assisi (Giovanni di Pietro di Bernardone: 1181 – 3 October, 1226), have also had a profound influence on my worldview.     

The 300th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been scheduled to hold, between Monday and Tuesday, in Abuja. This will be the second MPC meeting for the year and the eighth since the Olayemi Cardoso-led CBN was constituted.

The MPC is the highest policy making committee of the CBN with the mandate of reviewing economic and financial conditions in the economy; determining appropriate stance of policy in the short to medium term; reviewing regularly, the CBN’s monetary policy framework and adopt changes when necessary, as well as communicate monetary/financial policy decisions effectively to the public and ensure the credibility of the model of transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

As expected, economics and financial market analysts have already begun projecting outcomes and policy shifts ahead of the meeting. From speculations on interest rate adjustments to forecasts on liquidity management, this flurry of commentary has become a familiar ritual in the lead-up to each meeting. While such anticipatory analysis reflects the importance of the MPC’s decisions to the financial markets and broader economy, it is crucial to understand that the committee’s deliberations are far more comprehensive than surface-level predictions often suggest. Likewise, the belief by some Nigerians that monetary policy alone can cure all that ails the economy is a misconception that warrants a closer look. Let us be clear: monetary policy is important. But it is not omnipotent, and treating it as such not only misrepresents its role but also distracts policymakers, especially from the other arm of the federal government, and from the urgent structural reforms the country desperately needs.

So far, the Cardoso-led CBN has clung onto orthodox monetary policy and has deployed a full suite of conventional tools — raising the Monetary Policy Rate, adjusting cash reserve ratios, and tinkering with the foreign exchange framework. 

The MPC does not make decisions in isolation, in response to emotions or market sentiments. Its framework and decisions are rooted in careful assessment of both global and domestic developments.

Globally, factors such as the ongoing conversation around reciprocal tariffs, which appears to be simmering down, interest rate directions in advanced economies, commodity price trends—especially crude oil and geopolitical risks are thoroughly examined for their transmission effects on Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability.

In the domestic economy, the committee will evaluate a complex matrix of inflation data, exchange rate pressures, credit growth, fiscal dynamics, and output trends before concluding.

For instance, Thursday’s announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slightly dropped to 23.71 percent in April 2025, down from 24.23 percent in March, will be one of the major considerations at the meeting. According to the bureau, the movement in April 2025 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.52 percent compared to the March 2025 headline inflation rate.

This broader analytical lens ensures that monetary policy responses are not reactive but strategic, anchored in both short-term realities and long-term objectives.

 While analysts may zero in on a single variable, such as headline inflation or the exchange rate, the MPC’s mandate requires balancing multiple and sometimes conflicting goals: price stability, economic growth, and financial system soundness. Understanding this context helps temper expectations and underscores the importance of patience, coordination, and structural alignment in achieving real macroeconomic stability.

The uncomfortable truth is that Nigeria’s inflation is largely cost-push, not demand-pull. This means it is driven by factors outside the control of interest rate policy: insecurity in food-producing regions that intensified recently and has seen many farmers abandon their farmlands, poor transportation networks, heavy import dependency, energy price volatility, and rising cost of living. Raising interest rates in this context is like using a thermostat to fix a broken engine.

What we face as a nation is a structural economic disorder. No amount of fine-tuning of monetary policy alone can mask the fact that our factories run on diesel generators, our farmers face armed conflict rather than market competition, our imports outstrip local production and the rising cost of living, which is suffocating the common man.

Behind every overburdened central bank lies an underperforming fiscal authority. Nigeria’s fiscal space remains narrow, constrained not only by low revenues but also by misaligned priorities.  This imbalance makes it impossible to stimulate long-term growth. Without productive capital spending, we are simply recycling poverty through borrowed consumption. Already, the World Bank has described the key assumptions of 2.1 million barrels per day oil production and $75 per barrel price in the country’s 2025 budget as overambitious, given the current production level of 1.6mbpd and about $65pb price in the international market. The multilateral institution has also pointed out that the pace of growth in Nigeria needs to be accelerated further to meet its $1 trillion economy aspiration by 2030, deliver poverty reduction and shared prosperity. All these require hard work from the fiscal authorities, with policy support from the monetary side of the economy.

In most developed economies, fiscal policy sets the tone for economic direction, with monetary policy providing supportive alignment. But unfortunately, in Nigeria, the reverse is the norm. Monetary policy often takes the lead, while fiscal policy lags in coherence, responsiveness, and execution.

This imbalance mirrors the central argument in Mohamed El-Erian’s book, ”The Only Game in Town”, where he describes how central banks are forced to operate beyond their traditional mandates in the absence of decisive fiscal leadership. According to El-Erian, since the 2008 global financial crisis, global central banks ventured, not by choice, but by necessity, ever deeper into the unfamiliar and tricky terrain of unconventional monetary policies and heavily intervened in the functioning of markets. He also revealed in the book that during the 2008 financial crisis, in the US, a myriad of emergency funding windows were opened to enable cash to be injected into the financial system, and from virtually all directions. We saw this in Nigeria, with past CBN Governors venturing into development finance, agriculture funding, and interventionist credit schemes —areas that rightly belong to fiscal authorities. It not only blurs institutional roles but also weakens the accountability and efficiency of policy outcomes. A monetary authority overstretched into fiscal space becomes vulnerable to politicisation and operational fatigue,

This, however, is one of the areas we must commend Cardoso for, as he has maintained his stance on orthodox monetary policy, which clearly has increased transparency in the apex bank’s operation. This was evident in its consolidated and separate financial statements for the year ended December 2024, which also revealed that the CBN Group’s year-on-year losses declined to N680.62 billion in the year under review compared to N1.16 trillion in 2023. The CBN also recorded significant growth in its operating income in 2024, as it climbed to N15.23 trillion in 2024, from N5.89 trillion in the preceding year.

Likewise, the banking sector posted significant growth in its total operating income for its subsidiaries, as it rose by 41.3 per cent to N15.1 trillion in 2024, from N5.91 trillion in 2023.  Also, the group posted a profit after tax (PAT) of N38.8 billion, indicating a recovery from N1.15 trillion loss in 2023.

This is commendable as confidence is earned by transparency, not defended by rhetoric. Investors, both local and foreign, require predictability and fairness, a path Cardoso has chosen to follow.

From the foregoing, there is a need to strengthen fiscal policy activities in Nigeria to promote sustainable economic growth, address challenges like debt, and improve the country’s fiscal standing. A proactive fiscal policy can help stabilise growth, create a more predictable business climate, and facilitate increased investment in infrastructure and social services.

Just as importantly, Nigeria’s trade policy must be realigned to support macroeconomic goals. The country needs a trade strategy that is coherent, predictable, growth-oriented and aligns with the complexities in the global trade environment. Policymakers must target policies and programmes that encourage local production, reduce structural import dependence, and enhance the country’s competitiveness in both the regional and global markets.

Ultimately, we must demystify the role of monetary policy. It is not a magic wand. Monetary policy will always have a role, but it cannot drive a car with no engine. Until Nigeria confronts its structural and institutional weaknesses, the central bank’s best efforts will amount to managing decline rather than engineering growth.