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[OPINION] When the Law Marches in Black: Tinubu, Wike, and the Dangerous War Against a Calm Governor - John Egbeazien Oshodi
Admin![[OPINION] When the Law Marches in Black: Tinubu, Wike, and the Dangerous War Against a Calm Governor - John Egbeazien Oshodi](/media/k2/items/cache/e70beb889a845719cfc537fafc251b23_L.jpg)
According to history, tradition, and Nigerian media narratives—when all else fails, when the presidency turns inward, the legislature nods along, the courts go silent, and police power overshadows the people—Nigerians have turned not to more politics, but to the gods, spirits, and ancestral forces for justice.
This pattern is not new. It is cultural. It is psychological. It is historical.
And in that spirit, this piece stands not as a provocation, but as a reflection—of what the people see, what the law is meant to protect, and what higher truths continue to whisper, even when institutions choose not to speak.
The Legal Eruption: A Cold Coup in the Language of Order
On the surface, it appears to be an “executive measure”—a declaration of emergency in Rivers State by President Bola Tinubu. But beneath that surface, legal minds across Nigeria and beyond are describing something more severe: a constitutional disturbance, bordering on what might be called a soft-state override.
With the removal—some say neutralization—of Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the state’s legislative structures, the act has left many legal practitioners, scholars, and ordinary Nigerians stunned. To many, it looks less like a democratic correction and more like a federal occupation masked in legality.
The Black March: Lawyers Choose Silence No More
Then came the black robes. Young Nigerian lawyers—men and women—marched in mournful dignity to the United States Embassy. Their march was not chaotic, not riotous. It was orderly, composed, and resolute.
They came with law books, not slogans. They came not just to defend Fubara—but to defend the Constitution itself. And their message was unmistakable: Nigeria is drifting into dangerous constitutional territory. Not through gunfire. Not through military trucks. But through executive ink and parliamentary silence.
Their symbolism is powerful. The judiciary is trained to be quiet, but here they were—breaking their own cultural code of silence. And that, more than any protest chant, should give pause to any government truly committed to democratic balance.
Federal Overreach—or Strategic Calculus?
The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is not vague about federalism. It does not permit a sitting president to singlehandedly dissolve or neutralize the governance structures of a state. Such power, as lawyers have reminded the nation, once belonged only to military heads of state—not democratic presidents.
And so, the question arises: Is this a lawful action, or a politically dressed intervention?
Most dangerously, a consensus is forming in the public domain that this move may be less about law and more about 2027. Nigerians are talking. Commentators are whispering. Observers are drawing lines: that this crisis may have less to do with Rivers’ “instability” and more to do with the strategic ambition of certain individuals ahead of the next election cycle.
Many believe that the influence of former Governor Nyesom Wike—once powerful in Rivers but now politically challenged—played a key role in persuading the presidency to act decisively. That Fubara’s calm defiance became a political embarrassment that had to be erased before 2027’s electoral map is drawn.
But Here Lies the Unspoken Question: How Do They Know They’ll Be Around in 2027?
This is not a death wish. It is not a threat. It is a question of political humility—of existential reality.
Politics is unpredictable. Power is never permanent. No officeholder, no matter how favored today, can claim tomorrow with certainty. Health changes. Public opinion shifts. Legal winds turn. Global optics reshape alliances.
So the people ask, quietly but sincerely:
What kind of certainty convinces some actors that they will still be key players in 2027?
What knowledge or assumption emboldens them to move the chess pieces so confidently—years before the board has even been set?
Such questions are not aimed at individuals. They are aimed at power itself, and the psychology that often blinds it to time, consequence, and the human spirit.
Echoes of Military Rule in Civilian Clothing
The deeper fear is not just about Rivers. It’s about precedent. Because if the President, with legislative affirmation, can dissolve the governance of one state today—under “emergency”—what stops it from happening again? Where is the boundary? Who watches the watchers?
Elders remember a time when such moves were reserved for military regimes. When federal power descended like a hammer without process. And the lawyers marching this week are warning: We may be drifting back to that era—only this time, in suits and agbadas instead of khakis and berets.
The Calm Governor: Why Fubara’s Silence Is Louder Than Their Noise
Siminalayi Fubara has not shouted. He has not threatened. But perhaps that is the very problem for those who seek total control.
His restraint is uncomfortable. His composure disarms chaos. And in a political climate addicted to confrontation, his calm is its own rebellion.
It is not that he has rebelled—it is that he has refused to be owned. And for some, that is more intolerable than open defiance.
So they push him aside.
But in doing so, they elevate him.
Because now, Fubara is no longer just a governor. He is a national metaphor—for quiet dignity, for stolen mandate, and for democratic betrayal.
A Judiciary under Watch, a People Under Strain
The silence from Nigeria’s judicial bodies—aside from the protesting lawyers—has been deafening. Whether it is fear, fatigue, or alignment, we cannot say. But one thing is clear: the people are watching.
More dangerously, the international community is beginning to take notice.
Images of black-clad lawyers, walking in legal dignity, are far more powerful in diplomatic corridors than tweets or protest chants. Those images raise questions in foreign capitals. They trigger quiet reports in foreign ministries. They shift how global actors view Nigeria’s internal affairs.
No administration—no matter how domestically secure—wants to become “that government” in the eyes of the world.
Final Word: They Can Influence Men, But Not the Spirits
Yes, President Tinubu may command the levers of federal authority. Yes, Minister Wike may still wield influence across the South-South’s political terrain. But there are forces—older, deeper, and beyond human manipulation—that neither of them can control:
The eyes of the international community
The judgment etched into legal history
The conscience of a betrayed populace
And the ever-watchful spirits of Nigeria’s ancestral realm
When governance begins to resemble conquest, when constitutional rights are treated as inconveniences, and when duly elected leaders are removed as though they are political appointments, the people do not merely protest—they invoke.
They call upon enduring values passed from generation to generation—not out of fear, but as expressions of cultural strength and psychological defense. These are not superstitions. They are symbols of moral resistance—reminders that power, no matter how entrenched, is never exempt from accountability or higher justice.
And so it should surprise no one that across platforms—social media timelines, radio call-ins, newspaper columns—a single refrain has risen with unmistakable clarity:
“Tinubu, you are not God.”
This is not a threat. It is not an insult. It is a cultural reminder—that no mortal, no matter how protected or powerful, can override the will of a people enshrined in their Constitution. It is ungodly to dismantle an entire state’s democratic structure. It is morally indefensible to silence a governor chosen by the people. And it is spiritually dangerous to presume the ancestors are asleep.
History Has Already Recorded Their Defiance
To President Tinubu, to Minister Wike, and to all those behind this unfolding constitutional rupture—history has already taken note.
What the young lawyers in black did was not ordinary. It was not angry. It was sacred. They did not shout. They did not burn. They walked—with law in their hands, and justice on their backs.
They did not mourn a man.
They mourned a system.
They marched not for noise, but for memory.
They carried no slogans—only the Constitution.
They carried no weapons—only truth.
And in doing so, they wrote your names—Tinubu, Wike, and all enablers of this moment—into the pages of Nigerian history. Not as reformers. But as those who stood against the very system they swore to protect.
Some among you may attempt the usual responses—subtle punishment, withdrawn appointments, whispered blacklists, legal smoke screens. But nothing can undo what has been seen:
The world saw it.
The Nigerian people felt it.
The ancestors have recorded it.
You may dominate budgets. You may direct institutions. You may maneuver the media. But you do not control truth. And truth, once revealed, does not go quietly. It outlives every regime. It survives every title. It becomes legacy.
Return Fubara—Before the Ground Shifts
So, I speak now not as a protester, but as a psychologist. Not to incite—but to reflect. Not to challenge authority—but to warn power of its illusions.
Return Fubara.
Not to please the crowd.
Not to ease global scrutiny.
But to preserve the last threads of your own moral legacy.
Return him—not as a sign of surrender—but as a mark of wisdom.
Return him—not for the optics—but for the order.
Return him—not for headlines—but for history.
Because if Nigeria’s journey has taught us anything, it is this:
Power passes. Memory remains.
While men may try to erase the past, the people remember. And the gods—those spiritual witnesses that hover over this land—they never forget.
You may shift courtrooms. You may suspend lawmakers. You may redraw the political map.
But you cannot erase what is already spiritually recorded:
That one calm governor was unlawfully removed.
That a silent march in black cried out without words.
And that those who held the reins of power broke the law in the presence of the world, and under the gaze of eternity.
So again, I say this not in anger—but in clarity:
Return Fubara. Now.
Before time does what it always does—exposes the truth, humbles the proud, and immortalizes those who stood for justice when others sought control.
This writer does not know any of the individuals involved; the focus is solely on upholding democracy, truth, and justice.
[OPINION] Vietnamese poisoned over 50 years, as Mexico, Nigeria seek joint survival - Owei Lakemfa
Admin![[OPINION] Vietnamese poisoned over 50 years, as Mexico, Nigeria seek joint survival - Owei Lakemfa](/media/k2/items/cache/203f87b834173448f1348e3f40aea102_L.jpg)
Can you imagine being born 50 years ago with poison in your system; assured that the only remedy is death? That was the fate of about three million Vietnamese who were sprayed herbicides called Agent Orange, specially manufactured by the United States, US, to ensure the victims were not only exterminated but also that their offspring would continue to die for decades.
The American plan followed the same logic of deliberately spraying a farm with toxic herbicide to control or kill weeds. The Americans were conscious of the long-term effects of spraying the chemical on human beings.
Wednesday, April 30, 2025, as the fiftieth commemoration of the end of the US war on the Vietnamese was being commemorated, millions of Vietnamese people are still suffering or dying from the effects of the 11.22 million gallons of the Agent Orange chemical sprayed on them across 20 million acres, from August 1965 to 1971. The victims and their offspring as a result, suffer, amongst other things, from miscarriages, severe birth defects, B-cell leukemia, bladder cancer, lung cancer, Type-2 diabetes and Parkinson disease.
The unintended victims included the invading US troops as 300,000 US veterans also died from exposure to Agent Orange.
The US Cleveland Clinic established in 1921, explains why the chemical was so devastating: “Agent Orange contains a chemical called dioxin. Dioxin is a compound made from burning chlorine with carbon and hydrogen. The molecules of these chemicals are toxic to plants, animals and humans. When dioxin enters your body, it can damage or destroy vital organs, cells, your immune system and your hormones. Dioxin is a carcinogen, which means it can cause cancer. Agent Orange was extremely deadly because the US sprayed 20 times more than the manufacturer recommended in the environment.”
Despite being subjected to such agony with effects as devastating as the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Vietnamese refused to surrender, until they achieved victory over the Americans. To them: “Nothing is more precious than independence and freedom.”
The victory came after 30 years of resistance from 1945: first against inhuman French colonialism, then criminal American imperialism. In the war against France, over 200,000 Vietnamese lost their lives, while France and its European and American allies lost over 70,000 soldiers with 65,000 injured and 40,000 taken prisoner. In the one against the US in which the Americans also used other chemicals, including Agent White, Agent Blue, Agent Purple, Agent Pink and Agent Green, about two million Vietnamese were killed while US lost 58,202 soldiers with 75,000 severely disabled.
On the significance of the Vietnamese victory half a century ago, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, To Lam wrote this week that: “It left a powerful mark on the international stage, giving strong momentum to national liberation movements across Asia, Africa and Latin America. It encouraged nations to rise up against neo-colonialism and reclaim their right to freedom and independence. It was a triumph of justice over tyranny, an affirmation to the international community that even a small nation, armed with a just cause, unity, and unyielding will, and with the wholehearted support of international friends, progressive forces, and peace-loving people around the world, can defeat powers many times stronger.”
As for the future, Lam said: “We cannot rewrite history, but we can shape up our future. The past is to remember, to be grateful for, and to learn lessons from. The future is for building, creating, and developing together. That is the honourable promise of today’s generation to those who laid down their lives, as well as the common aspiration of a nation that has endured great suffering, yet has never been defeated.”
Just as Vietnam is looking forward to the future, so are Mexico and Nigeria who are unsure how the Trump administration might impact on them. This is more so in an era of unreasonable tariffs.
Therefore, on April 29, 2025 in Abuja, they inaugurated and commissioned the Nigeria-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, hoping to build on the modest beginnings already achieved. The Chambers says, for instance, the dried hibiscus flowers from Nigeria, locally called Zobo, “has successfully entered the Mexican market—generating over $3 billion in annual sales.”
It is a crop that grows widely in Northern Nigeria and the health benefits from the drink include reduced blood pressure, cells protection against damage (antioxidants) and improved heart health.
The President of the new Chamber, Ms Arim Topete, grew up in Mexico and has lived and worked in the Nigerian pharmaceutical industry in the last 15 years. She posited that: “Mexico is an industrial and manufacturing powerhouse with the capacity to support Nigeria’s infrastructure development and growing consumer market.” Topete said, simultaneously: “Nigeria’s vast agricultural and natural resources could provide essential inputs for Mexico’s industries.”
In situating the growing Nigeria-Mexico co-operation within the socio-economic global politics, Topete said: “This Chamber is more than a business platform; it is part of a growing global movement showing that countries in the Global South are ready to lead, work together and shape trade and business opportunities in our own terms. For too long, our regions have engaged with each other primarily through third parties or out-dated paradigms. We are now entering a new era—one where cooperation between us is direct, equal, and driven by our shared goals.”
Nigeria’s Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Mukthar Maiha, held that Nigeria with its huge livestock has a lot to learn from Mexico. He said although the civil war in Sudan is unfortunate, it has left a huge gap in livestock supply which Nigeria can fill. He said Nigeria itself is a huge market, remarking that if 47 million school children are provided milk, that is already a big market.
Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, who spoke through Ambassador Anderson Madubuike, said Nigeria needs to build its local resources and, on the basis of this, reach out to other economies, adding that: “You must use two hands to wash your hands.”
Mexican Ambassador Alfredo Miranda provided statistics on what Mexico has to offer Nigeria. This includes its being the 12th largest economy in the world, with a Gross Domestic Product of $1.8 trillion. A significant reduction of government borrowing needs from 1.99 trillion Mexican pesos to 1.43 trillion Mexican pesos. An inflation under control and forecast decline to 3.8 per cent by 2025. A global export leader with over $1 trillion with 83 per cent of exports to the US being non-oil and automotive products alone accounting for over 35 per cent of manufacturing exports.
He lamented that trade between Nigeria and Mexico is paltry, hence the need for the Chambers which can move their joint trade up from the paper weight category.
![[OPINION] Open Letter To Tinubu (II) - Donu Kogbara](/media/k2/items/cache/74923555dfa80f041b679ed7802eeeba_M.jpg)
Last week, on this page, I reproduced a letter from Rescue Rivers, a group I founded, to President Tinubu. The opening paragraphs:
We, the People of Rivers State and as concerned citizens of Nigeria, are writing to express our utmost outrage and condemnation of your recent [unconstitutional] declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State and the subsequent suspension of:-
1. The democratically elected Governor, His Excellency, Sir Siminalayi Fubara. 2. Deputy Governor Professor Ngozi Odu. 3. All elected Members of the Rivers State House of Assembly.
Due to lack of space, I wasn’t able to name the co-signatories. So, let me do so now because I am very proud of them for publicly standing up to be counted and they deserve credit for their principled stance:
Aleruchi Cookey-Gam, Ibim Semenitari, Lloyd F. Ukwu ( NADECO USA/Project Coordinator), Julie A Dyer (Coord/ Admin), Ibiba Omotoso, Kariba Braide, Aselle Abigo-Tshiunza, Karibo Lawson, George Ibifubara Jumbo, Dr Pax Harry, Ogu Emejuru, Nimi Amachree, Osa Cookey, Soala Iyalla, Daba Ibiama, Arnold Amino Amacree, Ibiba DonPedro, Derego Somiari, Michael Aloega, Abosi Israel, Sam Warmate, Osmond Dumo Barango, Aji Amachree Ihetu, Onu Nkiru Uba and Pius Dukor.
Only time will tell how the situation in Rivers State will eventually pan out. Rumours are rife that our PDP Governor, Sim Fubara, will soon defect to the APC, to prevent his tormentors (FCT Minister Nyesom Wike primarily) from making mincemeat of him.
I will be extremely disappointed if Fubara follows the path of least resistance and takes this easy way out because most Rivers indigenes are tired of bullying from Abuja and firmly behind him.
I cannot be sure that Fubara will win this dirty political game if he fights back against the powerful federal hijackers and usurpers who have humiliated him and seized control over our money.
But I do know for sure that Fubara will go down in history as a premier league hero if he girds his loins, behaves like a leader of substance, displays self-respect and courageously refuses to cave in.
Let’s wait and see what happens. Watch this space!!!
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
A friend posted this write-up on a WhatsApp group we belong to; and I think we all need to heed the wise words therein.
“I chuckled the first time I came across the phrase, ‘Until you have money to finance your temptations, don’t brag about morals.’
“Too much is hidden in poverty.”
“It was clever – yes – but more than that, it was quietly confronting.
“It peeled back the comfortable layers of ‘self-righteousness’; we often wear and expose an uncomfortable truth: that what we sometimes call morality may, in fact, be a privilege of limited options.
“It reminded me of another saying: ‘You call it corruption – until it comes your way. Then you’ll call it connections. And if you’re religious, you might even call it grace.’
“In our moral superiority, we confuse being untempted with being upright. We mistake the absence of opportunity for the strength of character. In doing so, we judge others through a lens clouded by comfort, detachment, and unchecked privilege.
“It’s easy to seem disciplined when nothing desirable is within reach. Easy to appear loyal when there’s no better offer on the table. It is easy to claim honesty when a lie has never promised to save you.
“And so we stand on our ‘safe little hills’ of assumed virtue, pointing fingers at those who fall—never pausing to ask whether we’d have done any better in their place. Maybe we haven’t resisted as much as we think. Perhaps we’ve just never been offered the shortcut.
“This isn’t to ‘romanticize’failure or excuse poor choices.’ It’s not to say wrong becomes right if it’s understandable. No. It’s a call to humility.
“A reminder that judgement without context isn’t strength. ‘It’s laziness masquerading as righteousness.’ It’s easy to judge others simply because they sin more differently than you.
“It’s easy to look down on the woman who stays in a toxic relationship—until life forces you to choose between safety and self-worth. Easy to mock the man who numbs his pain—until you’ve carried a grief that words can’t hold. Easy to scoff at the one who compromised – until your own values are tested not in theory but in fire.
“And when that ‘fire’ comes – and it does come – you begin to understand that real morality is quiet. It’s forged in private. And it costs.
“So, no, we shouldn’t glorify mistakes or blur the line between right and wrong. But we must stop weaponising virtue. Because morality isn’t proven by the absence of failure. It’s revealed in the presence of options.
“It’s folly to assume we’re better simply because we haven’t faced the same storms. Life has a funny way of humbling people. The very thing you once judged may become the thing you one day understand. And when that moment comes, may you be met with compassion – not condemnation.
“We’re all human. All learning. All navigating the chaos of life with the tools we’ve been given in stories the world may never fully know. So hold your standards high – but hold your heart higher. Speak truth—but season it with tenderness. And let your integrity be the kind that doesn’t need a stage to be real.”
[OPINION] Afenifere: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow (In Memory of Chief Ayo Adebanjo) - Akin Osuntokun
Admin![[OPINION] Afenifere: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow (In Memory of Chief Ayo Adebanjo) - Akin Osuntokun](/media/k2/items/cache/9f90dacfd31200d16a290b91c97231e6_M.jpg)
Yesterday
In the understanding of ‘ethnicity as the expression of solidarity and common loyalty of peoples who share among themselves a country and a culture’- Chief Obafemi Awolowo was right to commit himself to the notion and evolution of ethnic solidarity among the Yoruba. To put it in his precise phrase “I would see to it that the Yoruba evolved an ethnic solidarity among themselves” Awolowo made this significant pledge at his departure from Nigeria to study law in the United kingdom, UK, in 1941. The vision was subsequently consummated with in the formation of the Egbe Omo Oduduwa in London in 1945 .
The pre colonial Yoruba political unit (nation) that antedated Nigeria, holistically found political and constitutional expression; and sociological continuity in the egbe omo Oduduwa and ultimately the Western region of the Nigerian state until 1962. This development was in consonance with Dan Elazar’s postulation of a postmodern global trend in which there is a general movement from class-based to ethnic-based politics.
Within the context of seeking political power in the ethno regional predicated Nigerian politics, it would have been unrealistic of the Egbe omo Oduduwa not to rouse and magnify the urgency of the ethnic mobilization of the Yoruba. Nationalism tends to remain quiescent until there is the need to activate it, the Egbe and the Yoruba found themselves with such a need in 1945.
The seed that germinated in the constructive confusion and identity instability of Afenifere (aka Action Group, AG) was presaged by the overlapping identities of the egbe and the AG. Of the same interpretation is the role of Awolowo as the founder of the two organisations, which further engendered the conflation of one with the other.
Prior to the formation of the AG, the dominant party in the Western region was the National Council of Nigerian citizens, NCNC. It was the enlistment of the ethnic rally (what Awolowo called the “ethnic solidarity”) provided by the egbe that enabled the AG to turn the tide of political supremacy against the NCNC in the Western region.
This trend was replicated in the other regions. It was a similar instrumentality of ethnic mobilization that accounted for the political dominance of the Northern Peoples Congress, NPC and NCNC in the Northern region and the Eastern region respectively. It was in recognition of this political pattern that recommended federalism as the most adaptable constitutional structure to the circumstances of Nigeria.
Specific to the Yoruba, the legacy of its 19th century history, especially as represented by the Afonja/ Alimi syndrome, reduced the threshold and tolerance of the Yoruba for internal political squabble and disunity more so as it concerns any relationship with the Fulani dominated North.
This background served the exclusionary purpose of the consolidation of the AG towards becoming the dominant party in the Western region. Awolowo and the AG were themselves not in a hurry to shed this pan Yoruba toga until 1959. “the open declaration of ideology did not come until 1959 when the party made public a document containing a statement of its ideology”.
This was in deference to the imperative of projecting the AG as a national party in order to confer cosmopolitan panache on the ambition of Awolowo to become the Prime Minister of Nigeria. Needless to say that his position as leader of opposition equally required of him a pan Nigerian outlook.
Upon the breakout of the AG crisis in 1962 and as it degenerated into his political isolation, Awolowo strategically and fervently sought to register the AG as a detribalised party in the collective consciousness of Nigerians. The short term compensation of this outreach was the alliance with the Igbocentric National Council of Nigerian Citizens, NCNC to form the United Progressives Grand Alliance, UPGA.
The typical tendency for victims of political persecution to rebound in the martyrdom of the victim played out in favour of Awolowo among the Yoruba.
The harbinger of the grand return of Awolowo to the pinnacle of Nigerian politics were the military coups of January and July 1966 respectively. Had the coup succeeded, the January Coupists said they were going to release Awolowo and make him the Prime Minister of Nigeria.
In the attestation of Awolowo himself “In fact Akintola would not have been killed if he had behaved like fanikayode. When the soldiers came for him, if he had surrendered quickly they would have arrested him and he would have been safe, because the policy of the coup makers wasn’t to round up all politicians and bring them to dodan barracks. Then they were going to release me and we would have been brought to state house in Lagos to form an administration. If I had refused, they would have tried to govern in my name”
In the event it was the counter coup and the return of another Northerner (Lieutenant Colonel Yakubu Gowon) as the head of the federal military government that resulted in his immediate release from prison. As we all know, this courtship was not altogether altruistic. It was calculated to secure the support of the Yoruba in the run up to the civil war. Hence Awolowo was given his freedom and enlisted to serve in the Federal military government of General Yakubu Gowon in the capacity of Federal Commissioner of finance and Vice Chairman of the Federal Executive Council.
Given his ultimate ambition to contest for the office of Prime Minister he found himself in the albatross of the role that equates him and his leadership with the Yoruba. It is a role definition that exalts him but makes it difficult for him to secure political mileage outside the boundaries of Yoruba land.
I’m on record as criticising him for quitting as Premier of the Western region in pursuit of the mirage of seeking the office of the Prime Minister of Nigeria.The momentum of the socioeconomic development of the Western region that had been generated by his leadership was on the upswing and needed to be consolidated.That purpose was best served by him remaining the Premier especially within the context of a dysfunctional Nigerian status quo that was constitutionally and structurally rigged against reformist minded politicians like him.
Today
Predictably, after the announcement of the earthly passage of the Afenifere leader Chief Ayo Adebanjo, there ensued a resurgence of efforts by well meaning Yoruba to broker reconciliation between the ‘Ayo Adebanjo’ and ‘Reuben Fasoranti’ factions. The typical entreaty from them was that the two factions should cease the moment as an opportunity to effect a reconciliation.
I balked at the suggestion because it carries the implication that Adebanjo was the personification of the conflict, that it was a personality clash between him and the other group. It also betrays the subconscious inability of the Yoruba to accept the role definition of Afenifere as an ideological pressure group rather than a 21st century reincarnation of egbe omo Oduduwa.
In an audacious revisionist version of history, Chief Bisi Akande rhetorically assorted that Bola Ige was the founder of Afenifere. According to Akande “The death of Bola Ige was the death of Afenifere. He found it and he took it away,” When the interviewer said “but Afenifere is not dead.” Akande said, “I don’t know but it is not the Afenifere we formed.” As far appellation goes, I can only recall Ige talking of egbe Ilosiwaju (or Itesiwaju) Yoruba not Afenifere.
An indication that Afenifere is also not in a hurry to adhere to its definition as a political pressure group is it’s membership of the illustrious South and Middle-Belt Forum, SMBLF. The group comprises nationalist representatives of the Igbo (Ohaneze) , the Niger Delta (Pandef) and the Middle Belt (Middle-Belt Forum). These three organizations have consistently self-defined as sociocultural and nationalist umbrella of their respective regions.
They understand and frame Afenifere as a peer group. Alongside Afenifere they are commonly opposed to the Nigerian status quo and express equal commitment to the restoration of federalism. In this regard, they have fulfilled the criteria precedent to be cited as Progressives.
Tomorrow
One important task that desperately requires a deliberate intervention by Afenifere is the cultivation of a successor generation. I had, many years ago, identified this problem (in my column at the Guardian newspaper) in a saucy article titled the ‘Young Shall Grow’. This was in response to what appears to be the drift of the Afenifere leadership towards gerontocracy.
Subsequently, groups like Idile and alajobi rose to the challenge. The members of those groups are on their way to becoming the geriatrics of today leaving a vacuum that has not been meaningfully filled by another successor generation. The success of any society is dependent on how adequately it can fulfil renewal in leadership recruitment and reproduction of successor generations.
In a reflection of the adoption of ‘Democratic socialism’ as the ideology of the AG, Awolowo clarified this ideology in an interview with Peter Enahoro of the Daily times in 1982 as follows. “It has been said that because I bought a land of million Naira, I’m no longer a socialist. I don’t know where socialism advocated poverty and wretchedness. The whole purpose is to raise the status of all the people. It may be necessary by the process of taxation to take part of the wealth of the so-called wealthy people and give it to the government for use in the development of the masses of the people”.
What can be extrapolated from this clarification is that Awolowo is not a doctrinare socialist. As a matter of fact, his clarification is theoretically interchangeable with the concept of ‘State Capitalism’. Following this trajectory and origin, Afenifere is a left of center ideological pressure group which will, at all times, logically find companionship with organisations or political parties that are ideologically opposed to the Nigerian status quo of a pseudo unitarist state.
If Afenifere can be validly branded as of social welfarist ideological persuasion, it is equally important to note that more than any other value, what Awolowo bequeathed to the Yoruba and Nigeria is the legacy of competence, credibility and integrity not socialism or capitalism.
For instance, were Awolowo to wake up suddenly, he is not likely to recognise the bread and butter mockery of many who parade themselves as Afenifere. As the holy book says, by their deeds ye shall know them.
![[OPINION] For the Abolition of Poverty - Femi Falana](/media/k2/items/cache/912b46f58d2b8b371324aa7de16d56b5_M.jpg)
It is important to address certain misconceptions on the cause of poverty in Nigeria. On the account of the nation’s immense human and natural resources, Nigerians ought not to be associated with poverty. But poverty cannot be abolished in a capitalist country. For instance, 37.9 million (11.5%) of the residents live in abject poverty in the United States that is said to be the richest country in the world.
In justifying the harsh economic pains inflicted on the Nigerian people due to the zealous implementation of neoliberal economic policies, the federal government has blamed oil theft and smuggling of petroleum products as the cause of poverty in Nigeria. However, President Bola Tinubu has said that, “After the initial turbulence… the take-off was very cloudy and uncertain. Today, we see a light at the end of the tunnel.” Since we do not share in the optimism of the government, we are going to review the task of abolishing poverty in the country.
The World Bank says that a poor person is anyone who lives on less than $2.15 (N3,440) a day. We all know that most Nigerians live on less than N3,440 per day. In 2018, Nigeria was rated as the poverty capital of the world as about 87 million Nigerians fell into extreme poverty that year. In 2022, it was reported by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics that 133 million citizens had become “dimensionally poor.” The World Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report has projected a grim future for Nigeria, with poverty expected to rise by 3.6 percentage points by 2027.
Released during the ongoing IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, the report cites Nigeria’s reliance on oil, economic fragility, and governance challenges as key drivers. It highlights the country’s structural economic weaknesses, dependence on oil revenues, and national fragility as key barriers to meaningful poverty reduction.
It has also been confirmed that Nigeria has been downgraded to the fourth position on the list of top African countries by gross domestic product (GDP). Nigeria’s GDP has plummeted to $188.27 billion. In the African continent, South Africa leads with a GDP of $410.34 billion, followed by Egypt at $347.34 billion, and Algeria at $268.89 billion.
The Premium Times has observed that “Nigeria, which until 2023 was the continent’s biggest, fell to the fourth position after two sharp devaluations of its currency shrank its GDP by more than half, causing the naira to lose roughly 70 per cent of its value against the dollar.”
As a result of the reckless devaluation of the currency, the business environment has become hostile as a result of rising interest rates and scarcity of forex needed to import raw materials and machinery. According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, 335 manufacturing companies became distressed and 767 shut down in the year 2023 with hundreds of thousands of job losses.
In a saner clime, political leaders, regardless of political party differences, would have united in addressing the grim picture of poverty and political instability painted by the World Bank, a vigorous supporter of the Tinubu administration. Instead of confronting the crisis of poverty headlong, the ruling party, (the All-Progressive Congress) is busy promoting political prostitution by receiving spineless defectors from other political parties to its fold.
As the nation prepares for the 2027 general election, the ruling party has almost concluded arrangement to convert Nigeria to a one party state. But have the leaders of the APC forgotten that General Sani Abacha’s dream of metamorphosing into a civilian president did not materialise even though he had been adopted by the five registered political parties? Did the leaders of the Peoples’ Democratic Party not boast of ruling the country for 60 years?
Even though section 14 of the Nigerian Constitution stipulates that the State shall provide for the security and welfare of the people, poverty and insecurity are on the ascendancy in the country. Section 16 thereof outlines the economic objectives of the state. It directs the state to harness the nation’s resources, promote national prosperity, and establish an efficient, dynamic, and self-reliant economy. Additionally, it emphasizes the state’s responsibility to ensure that citizens have adequate shelter, food security, a reasonable minimum living wage, and social welfare benefits like old age care, unemployment benefits, and support for the disabled.
In utter violation of the economic objective of the State, the members of the ruling class have sold public enterprises and awarded oil blocks and licences for solid minerals to themselves. Thus, the State has engaged in concentrating the commonwealth in the hands of a few people contrary to the letter and spirit of the Constitution. However, some of those who lost out in the criminal diversion of the commonwealth through privatisation and award of oil blocks have engaged in the smuggling of solid minerals.
Even though the members of the ruling class have conspired to make the fundamental objectives and direct principles of state policy non justiciable in any court, the struggle of the Nigerian people for dividends of democracy has compelled the State to adopt policies and enact a numbers of laws that are designed to promote the welfare of the Nigerian people.
The welfare laws include Pension Reforms Act, National Minimum Wage Act (yet to be implemented by 20 states), Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act, Employees Compensation Act, Factories Act, National Commission for Mass Literacy, Adult and Non- Formal Education Act, Child Rights Act in FCT and Child Rights Law in every state, Student Loans (Access to Higher Education) (Repeal and Re-enactment) Act, National Senior Citizens Act, Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act, Federal Mortgage Bank Act, National Housing Act, etc.
It is regrettable to note that the welfare laws are observed in breach by the Nigerian State to the detriment of the working people. For instance, the Child Rights Act and Child Rights Laws Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act have imposed a legal duty on the federal and state governments to ensure that every child is given free and compulsory education from primary school to junior secondary school.
The immediate past Executive Secretary of UBEC, Dr. Hamid Bobboyi, during his presentation of the 2020 and 2023 budget implementation report to the Senate Committee on Basic and Secondary Education in Abuja, disclosed that N135,540,905,308.92 in matching grants have not been accessed by states in the last few years.
Owing to the refusal of state governments to contribute counterpart fund to access the matching grant of about N135 billion in the UBEC Account as stipulated by the law, Nigeria has 20 million out of school children. The Alliance on Surviving Covid-19 and Beyond (ASCAB) dragged the Federal Government and the 36 state governments to the Federal High Court seeking to compel them to comply with the education laws. Since there is no defence to the case, the defendants have challenged the locus standi of the plaintiffs to institute the action.
Furthermore, the recent data released by the National Pension Commission show that total assets in the Nigerian Pension industry rose by 23% year-on-year to N22.5trn in December 2024. Instead of ensuring that pensioners are promptly paid their pension the federal government has borrowed N10 trillion from the fund. Worried over the concern of pensioners the house of representatives has resolved to recover the loan on the ground that most pensioners are unable to access their retirement funds despite complying with the requirements of the contributory pension scheme.
The House Committee was mandated to investigate the status of the pension fund assets of over N15.5 trillion with a view to ensuring that the N10 trillion loaned to the federal government from the pension fund is duly recovered and modalities are put in place to hinder the collapse of the pension schemes.
Under the Federal Mortgage Bank Act, workers are required to contribute to housing primarily through the National Housing Fund (NHF), where a mandatory 2.5% of their monthly salary is deducted and remitted to provide affordable housing loans to eligible workers. The contribution, together with other contributions from other lowly placed citizens, helps to fund the NHF.
The National Housing Fund (NHF), like other interventionist administering programmes, has become a subject of abuse and fraudulent practice. In November 2024, the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC) arraigned Mr. Gimba Ya’u Kumo, former chief executive officer, of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), for allegedly diverting $65 million housing fund. The money was for the construction of 962 units of residential houses at the Goodluck Jonathan Legacy City in Kubwa, a satellite town in Abuja.
The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress should closely monitor the trial and request the ICPC to investigate the allegation made in 2012 by Mr. Gimba Ya’u Kumo, that some “unscrupulous employers” had milked the fund dry to the tune of N100 billion. The NLC and the TUC owe workers a duty to ensure that the stolen sums of $65 million and N100 billion are recovered and utilised for building houses for workers.
In spite of shortcomings and lack of independence, the anti-graft agencies have continued to record success in the recovery of looted wealth and other assets. In its 2024 report, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) detailed a breakdown of the sums recovered to include N364.5bn, $214.5m, £54,318.64, €31,265. Other recovered assets included the forfeiture to the Federal Government of over 753 duplexes and other apartments, the largest recovery by the Commission since its inception.
In 2023, the EFCC recovered nearly N250 billion, along with millions in foreign currencies, including dollars and pounds sterling. On its part, the independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences (ICPC) recovered assets/cash worth N105.82 billion between 2023 and 2024. The Nigeria Customs Service, National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control etc.
The EFCC also stated in the report that some of the monetary recoveries have been reinvested by the Federal Government in initiatives that provide significant benefits to the Nigerian people. It cited the example of the N50bn granted by the Federal Government to the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), a programme launched in 2024 to provide interest-free loans to students in tertiary institutions.
The EFCC reported that other recovered funds were being invested in development projects—such as improved roads, hospitals, and power supply—to elevate standards and support Nigeria’s long-term growth. The remaining funds that have been recovered are paid into the account of the Federal Government.
In view of the fact that the recovered loot had been criminally diverted or re-looted in the past, it is suggested that a special account be opened for warehousing recovered loot. The proceed of such recovered loot should be earmarked to fix dilapidated educational institutions and medical facilities in the country. The 753 housing units recovered from a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria should be handed over to the Federal Mortgage Bank for completion and onward distribution to workers.
It is not in dispute that the country has been beset with soaring inflation after the scrapping of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the exchange rate for the naira. Instead of reverting the dangerous economic policies the federal has continued to blame the unpatriotic elements that have engaged in crude oil theft and smuggling of fuel from Nigeria to neighbouring countries. It is our submission that the Federal Government is not prepared to end the economic sabotage due to the involvement of multinational oil companies and their local lackeys.
A few months ago, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited announced that the Port Harcourt and Warri publicly owned refineries had resumed production while the Dangote Refinery said that it has the facilities to refine the entire fuel consumed in the country. But the Federal Government has continued to waste trillions of Naira on the importation of fuel from foreign countries. For instance, the media reported that between October 2024 and January 2025 (4 months), the nation spent a whopping sum of N5.5 trillion importing fuel, diesel and kerosene.
Despite the removal of fuel subsidy, it has been confirmed by the Nigeria Customs Service that the smuggling of fuel from Nigeria to neighbouring countries has continued because it is sold at N2,000 whereas it is sold cheaper in Nigeria. Since the government is not prepared to stop the nefarious trade of fuel smuggling, another increase in the price of fuel may be in the offing. However, i wish to point out that the Federal Government’s efforts to end oil theft and smuggling of fuel have been frustrated by well-known public officers and multinational oil companies without any sanction. Permit me to provide some irrefutable evidence of such economic sabotage.
In 2010, the Petroleum Equalisation Fund (Management) Board, said it would commence the electronic monitoring of petroleum products distribution from the first week in January 2011. The management of the Board said that officials of the Fund had been extensively trained and deployed to the over 50 depots operated by the PEF across the country to begin the implementation of the new business solution, termed ‘Project Aquila’ which aims to revolutionise products movement in the downstream subsector. It turned out that the officials were demobilised and prevented from monitoring the movement petroleum products distribution.
On 8th August 2018, the Federal Executive Council approved the installation of technology monitoring schemes and structures under the Petroleum Equalisation Fund (PEF) for N17 billion. Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, the then Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, disclosed that the deployment of the automated fuel system management and censor network would ensure 100 per cent tracking and monitoring of petroleum products. But the technology monitoring device was not installed while the N17 billion earmarked for it was criminally diverted.
On July 13, 2024, the federal government awarded contracts of $21 million to ensure the full metering of Nigeria’s 187 oil flow stations as well as a software to track the movement of Nigeria’s oil in the high seas. The Minister of State, Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, stated that the move was to remove all doubts as to the quantity of oil that Nigeria produces on a daily basis as well as to be able to track crude oil to their expected destinations.
In December 2019, the Directorate of Petroleum Resources (DPR) turned to French data firm Kpler, just six years old and staffed by a hundred mostly young employees, to help it ferret out the smugglers from the thousands of ships plying Nigerian waters. The head of Kpler partnership with Nigeria, Antoine Pillet said, “In some ways, we’re the CCTV of what’s going on in Nigerian waters. We provide the data, but don’t really give opinions on what may be going on.”
DPR’s Head of Public Affairs, Paul Osu, said: “This technology is a way of improving the way we do things. Of course there are problems here and there, but we don’t have inherent problems. Technology is the way to boost transparency of operations and improve investor confidence.”
Apart from the above measures, the Federal Government awarded a contract of $144 per annum for pipeline surveillance, coastal protection, and safeguarding of critical infrastructure in the Niger Delta region. Meanwhile, the armed forces have deployed a task force to end oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta region within the shortest possible time. Despite the above measures put in place, the country still loses 400 000 barrels of crude oil valued at N2.39 trillion per day. A 2022 report by the Nigerian Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (NEITI) confirmed that about 619.7 million barrels of crude oil, valued at $46.16billion have been stolen in the last 12 years.
From to time, the involvement of the multinational oil and shipping companies has been exposed. But due to lack of political will on the part of the State to end oil theft, smuggling of fuel and solid minerals, poverty has increased in the land. At this juncture, it is pertinent to refer to specific cases of oil theft by the powerful oil cartel. Between 2011 and 2014, the federal government conducted investigation into the incessant oil theft. The House of Representatives too carried out an investigation into the heinous economic crime.
Hon. Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonyinma, who was the chair of the House Committee which investigated the incidence of crude oil theft and made discoveries that are yet to be addressed, said: “The crude oil that landed in the United States port of Houston and port of Lake Charles, these are information produced by the US Customs – 391,141,049 million barrels, that is from Nigeria to the United States alone. We have the vessel numbers, we have the IMO number, we have the loading date, we have the loading order, we have the off-take date, off-take owner, off-take country and the number of barrels involved”.
Another investigation conducted by a team of Nigerian lawyers commissioned by the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), revealed that crude oil stolen from Nigeria and discharged in a port in Philadelphia was 60.2 million barrels of crude oil. The value was $12.7 billion. The well-known oil and shipping companies involved in the criminal enterprise have been treated like sacred cows by the federal government.
On October 6, 2022, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) disclosed that it had uncovered a four-kilometre illegal oil connection line from Forcados Terminal into the sea which had been in operation for nine years. The company’s chief executive officer, Mr. Mele Kyari, disclosed this at the Senate’s Joint Committees on Gas and Petroleum (Upstream and Downstream). He said that it was not clear how the line operated unnoticed for years but that the Forcados terminal is operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC).
The NNPCL said that the theft point extended from the Trans Escravos pipeline and that the Afremo platform, operated by the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited was the suspected exit point of the stolen crude. Although NNPCL promised to investigate the use of Shell pipeline for oil theft for 9 years, nothing has come out of the investigation.
According to geo-scientific data, Nigeria’s solid minerals wealth is said to be worth about $750bn. The Minister of solid minerals development, Dr Oladele Alake has said by the time an accurate data exploration is completed, “trillions of naira will be a child’s play, and we will be nudging trillions of dollars.” But like the oil sector where the Government is losing billions of dollars annually to oil theft, solid minerals are equally stolen in billions on dollars in a sophisticated manner.
Former minister of state for mines and steel development, Dr. Uche Ogah had revealed that about $9 billion worth of gold was smuggles from Nigeria annually through private jets. The serious allegation was never denied by the indicted private jet owners. In fact, the current Minister, Dr. Alake has corroborated Ogah’s position when he alleged that the powerful Nigerians behind illegal mining are also the ones sponsoring terrorism and banditry in the country. He also said that most of the foreigners engaged in illegal mining in the country had no proper immigration.
Notwithstanding the no-fly zone imposed on Zamfara state for security reasons, some private jets still land to steal precious stones with the connivance of top secured officers. Apart from involvement in terrorist activities, the criminals are also engaged in environmental pollution of mining sites. But like the powerful people involved in oil theft the criminal justice system is too weak to arrest the owners of private jets who are involved in smuggling of solid minerals out of Nigeria.
In February this year, the Ilorin Zonal Command of the EFCC arrested 41 suspects and impounded 12 trucks for their alleged involvement in illegal mining and possession of different types of solid minerals without appropriate licences. Most of the suspects are Chinese nationals. The Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, has said gold mined in the country is being exported illegally to the United Arab Emirates. The federal government ought to have enlisted the support of the UAE authorities to end the smuggling of gold from Nigeria.
CONCLUSION
The removal of fuel subsidy, devaluation of the national currency as well as oil theft, smuggling of fuel and solid minerals have compounded the crises of poverty and underdevelopment. We have proven that the Nigerian State is not committed to the eradication of oil theft and smuggling of solid minerals. It is left for Nigerians to demand the provision of dividends of democracy include the huge revenue from the nation’s enormous mineral resources.
Since the Tinubu administration has no solution to the crisis of poverty, insecurity and unemployment, security forces have unleashed violence on peaceful protesters. During the #endbadgovernance of August 2024, many protesters including children were arrested and charged with treason. To cow citizens to silence, critics are arrested, detained and charged with criminal defamation and cybercrime offences.
While it is gratifying to note that Nigerians are prepared to challenge the reactionary forces that are holding the country down, the Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress should organise workers to ensure that all welfare laws are enforced in the overall interests of the oppressed people. As shown in this presentation, the fundamental objectives and directive principles of state policy have been made non justiciable by the ruling class. It is only through a political struggle that the democratic rights of the Nigerian people can be actualized and made justiciable. That is not possible under a peripheral capitalist system. Therefore, the task before genuine forces of change is to mobilise the people to abolish all forms of poverty in the land through the socialist reconconstruction of the society.
![[OPINION] 2027: What’s in the Offing for Saraki? - Yomi Owope](/media/k2/items/cache/92098079c1522d091d9a51d3a0be44e1_M.jpg)
Dr Bukola Saraki evokes the figure of the idle king in Tennyson’s Ulysses—a man who has known both triumph and adversity, surrounded at times by loyal allies and, at others, by no one at all. His political career is a study in momentum: within three decades, he rose from a senior executive role at a major bank to serve two terms as governor of Kwara State, entered the Senate in 2011, and, by 2015, had engineered his way to the presidency of the Nigerian Senate. Few Nigerian politicians have climbed faster or maneuvered more deftly. Yet by 2019, the machinery seemed to grind to a halt, leaving Saraki unmoored, a veteran leader without an obvious battlefield.
“How dull it is to pause, to rust unburnished, not to shine in use,” the poem says. The line could easily serve as a reflection on Saraki’s current predicament. Since 2011, he has harbored presidential ambitions and remained a key player on the national stage. Even after his tenure as governor ended, he maintained an iron grip on Kwara’s politics, quietly orchestrating events behind the scenes for another eight years. But ambition, once deferred, demands a new urgency, and in the shifting tides of Nigerian politics, staying quiet is the quickest way to be forgotten.
For all the talk about it being the turn of the South to rule for eight years, the only geopolitical zone to never actually produce a Nigerian president is the Middle-Belt; and for all the compelling talk about an Igbo presidency, at least history acknowledges Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was president of Nigeria until the coup of 1966. Saraki’s path, and the Middle-belt region’s exclusion, demand a more serious reckoning in the national conversation. Whether that conversation should be taking place towards 2027 is debatable; but even more uncertain is whether the answer lies within the PDP, the party where Saraki now holds fort.
Saying it plainly, Saraki has an Atiku problem, and it’s been years in the making. He has had that problem since 2019 when he agreed to be the director general of the former vice president’s campaign, instead of focussing his energies on returning to the senate and consolidating his hard-fought power there. This distraction proved very costly, blindsiding him from the changing landscape back home and the blitzkrieg campaign of the otoge movement that established the APC – to which Saraki himself switched his state political machinery in 2015 – as the dominant power in the state for the tenth year. And with Atiku’s daily posturing on X, along with his body language and loud trumpeting about a coalition ahead of 2027, it seems the old man, who will be 80 next year, may be gearing up for yet another presidential run, his sixth since 2007.
Saraki is also grappling with what political observers might call a Hillary Clinton-problem, not a matter of personality, but of public perception, and the baggage that comes with long years in the arena. Here is a man who was one of Nigeria’s most successful governors, who led arguably Nigeria’s most independent Senate, who comes from a political dynasty that has endured for over half a century, and who, by Nigerian standards, is still young. On paper, it should be a no-brainer for the party to rally around him and put him forth to Nigerians as a strong choice. This has yet to happen. And while a presidential candidate historically has only one shot as the party’s flagbearer, PDP has stuck with one man twice and failed, monumentally damaging its own prospects with its internal crises since 2022. After eight years of Buhari, it was clear Nigerians were eager for a new direction. But instead of uniting, the party effectively fielded three presidential candidates across three different parties, handing the APC a clear path to victory. Ironically, all three later claimed they had won, when in reality, they had simply cancelled one other out, and been outmaneuvered by Mr. Tinubu, who became president, fair and square.
Which brings us to our next point about Saraki. This is probably the only politician who has actually played the kind of high stakes politics we witnessed ahead of the 2023 elections and won. In 2015, with the odds stacked against him, Saraki pulled off a political masterstroke live on television. He outmaneuvered his own party, the APC, a sitting president, and the party’s national leader – all of whom were backing their preferred candidate, Ahmad Lawan – and emerged as Senate President. If there was ever a day on which Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was truly outfoxed, it was this. Resilience is the main currency of Nigerian politics and BukolaSaraki is among its shrewdest practitioners. After seizing the Senate presidency against the wishes of his own party, he spent the next four years under siege from corruption charges at the Code of Conduct Tribunal to investigations by the EFCC and repeated threats of arrest. Few would dispute that Saraki emerged with his political capital largely intact; battle-scarred, perhaps, but wiser for the experience and still very much a player.
This resilience, however, is a double-edged sword. In Nigeria, political longevity often breeds suspicion and Saraki’s survival has added to the perception that he is a man too skilled at the dark arts of power for a nation that increasingly demands transparency. He may well position himself for another shot at national leadership, but his challenge is no longer just to win his party’s nomination, but to redirect attention to what he has accomplished in the decades since he was only a 37-year-old adviser to former President Obasanjo.
Dr. Saraki has mostly stayed on the sidelines of the PDP’s internal crisis, only recently breaking his silence after the shocking defection of the Delta State political structure to the APC, an event that ended over two decades of PDP dominance in the oil-rich state. With confusion mounting and the party’s foundation steadily eroding, he has begun to demonstrate the kind of leadership the PDP urgently needs by calling for calm and rallying the troops.
Saraki wants the presidency, but a vice-presidential slot would still represent a step up from his previous role as Senate President. It would place him within striking distance of the highest office, while allowing him to consolidate alliances for the future. His ambitions are not unique. By 2027, it will be twenty years since Alhaji Atiku Abubakar first began his now endless quest for the presidency, an odyssey marked more by defeat and frustration. The space Atiku occupies is increasingly seen as fully exhausted, a fact that younger politicians like Saraki should be keen to exploit. Meanwhile, figures like Peter Obi present a different kind of challenge. A paradigm of clawing self-interest, Obi has demonstrated a willingness to shift loyalties in pursuit of advantage and will likely move again to whichever platform best secures his footing ahead of 2027.
At the end of the day, it is hard-nosed pragmatism, not sentiment, that may decide the next contest. Today’s purveyors of the great coalition are simply too angry and too bitter to make any sound judgements against a ruling party unlikely to give up power easily in two years.
Saraki should step up and lead, but he must do so with caution. The trap of the idle king looms large: a former governor and former Senate president, still too young to be an elder statesman, yet at risk of becoming a relic of the past. Our political culture punishes hesitation; therefore Bukola Sarakimust choose whether to seize the day or be remembered merely as one who almost did.
–Owope writes from Lagos.
![[OPINION] Warri refinery: Was Obasanjo right? - Abdu Rafiu](/media/k2/items/cache/9bfc27396a6e7cc89f29d4175f345d99_S.jpg)
There was dancing and rejoicing when Mele Kyari announced with glee that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) had pulled through and what seemed impossible to the doubting Thomases and pessimists had become possible. The Warri Refinery machines were set to roar back to life. Kyari, the Group’s former Chief Executive Officer, beating his chest in triumph, on 30 December, led journalists on a tour of the facility in Warri. It was an event witnessed by stakeholders, comprising marketers in particular. He said on the occasion about the reactivation this column regarded trustingly as a New Year gift by NNPCL: “If you see the plant you will see the reality yourself. This plant is running; we have not completed it 100 per cent, but we are still in the process; we are on the other part of the plant as we progress, but currently this plant is running. You will see what is happening now and we are bringing products to the market.” He went on: “There are many people who don’t think this is real. People don’t believe real things can happen in our country. We believe that this is right for our country and all of us have a stake, including the media so this can become a greater place as it is already happening.” Turning to the journalists he said: “We want you to see that everything is real. I must congratulate our team for their determination and extreme belief that this company can restart this plant. This has brought the result we are seeing in collaboration with our contractors. We have proved that it is possible to restart a plant that you deliberately shut down. We have proved this.”
However, former President Olusegun Obasanjo hissed. He was swift in pouring cold water on our spirit, expressing serious doubts about the celebrative health feat of the refineries, both Warri and Port Harcourt. And what is the situation today about four months after the hallelujah chorus? According to a regulatory authority document a national newspaper sighted, the Warri Refinery has been shut down since 25 January, 2025. And Port Harcourt plant which resumed operation in November last year, just about a month before Warri has been operating below 40 per cent capacity. I will come back to this presently.
Commenting on the refurbishment of Warri Refinery, this column stated as follows on 11 January in the piece captioned ‘Fuelling Doubts’: “The ding-dong between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the NNPCL is good, disturbing as it may seem on the surface. It is a wake-up clarion call to NNPCL. The nation has suffered enough in its hands. The argument that may be seen as degenerating into a brickbat is still over the state of the refineries.
“The group chief executive officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Mele Kyari, announced to the nation on 30 December, 2024, that Warri Refinery had been successfully, though partially, refurbished and was roaring back to life. The New Year gift by NNPCL to the nation took everybody by surprise, coming this soon after the old Port Harcourt refinery was reactivated and it became operational. Despite the stage of rehabilitation, it will produce 60 per cent of its installed capacity, which is 125, 000 barrels per day. GCOE Mele Kyari said with glee: “If you see the plant, you will see the reality yourself. This plant is running…”
The Punch comprehensive report on the state of the two refineries on Tuesday, however, does not give much signal for cheer in the horizon—provided the new helmsman, Bayo Ojulari, rolls up his sleeves and charts his own totally new course, and moves away from broken promises of the past.
The column did state: “Former President Obasanjo, who is not known to shrink from controversies, has thrust his chest out to count among ‘people who don’t think this is real’, that is, given his stature he is not perturbed if he is seen as leading the Doubting Thomases. He was swift in expressing doubts about the health feat of the refineries. He anchored his reservations on the aphoristic parable of a farmer and the size of his farm during planting season. The farmer made the world to believe that he had a large cultivation of yams. He boasted that he planted 200 yam mounds, whereas all he had were 100 heaps. At harvest the truth will inexorably catch up with him.
“So, if anybody tells you that they (the refineries) are working, why are they not with Aliko in the market? Aliko will make his own refinery work. Not only make it work, he will make it deliver”, Obasanjo said sarcastically.
“Whether we announce our own government refineries are working or not working, look, it is like they say in Yoruba adage, ‘the man who plants 100 heaps of yams and says he planted 200 heaps, they say after he has harvested 100 heaps of yam, he will harvest 100 heaps of lies.’
In response, however, the NNPCL leadership sure of itself, or so it appeared, said it would be pleased to have Obasanjo as a guest to be taken round the plants to see things for himself.
As I did state at the time, given Obasanjo’s standing and public acclaim, and his own familiarization with the company as a former President, it is inconceivable that he would make comments on matters of this nature and on the company’s operations without intelligence reports and without gathering information from competent sources connected with the refineries. The former President was not the only person who harboured doubts. Some experts in the oil industry believed it must have been a miracle to succeed in bringing the refineries back to life. One said at the time: ‘We wait and see.’
Obasanjo hinged part of his doubts on his discussions with Shell that he had invited, while in the saddle, to take interest in running the refineries but Shell turned down the offer. One of the four reasons Shell gave was that there was too much corruption around the activities of our refineries and they would not want to get involved. They gave other reasons bordering on the productive capacity of the refineries which Shell considered too small.
NNPCL on its part allayed fears saying it had expanded beyond oil and gas to become an integrated energy company. The company went further to explain that what had taken place was not the accustomed Turn Around Maintenance (TAM), but a comprehensive overhaul. It was a comprehensive overhaul designed to meet what it described as world-class standards. And Chief Corporate communications officer of NNPCL, Olufemi Soneye reinforced enheartening hopes and expectation by reminding the nation that NNPCL was no longer a government corporation. “Today,” he said, “NNPC Limited is a private entity that has transitioned from being a loss-making organization to becoming a profit -oriented global energy leader.”
Far back as 04 August, 2021, the Buhari Administration approved $1.48billion (US Dollars) for the rehabilitation of both Warri and Kaduna refineries, $897million for Warri and $586 million for Kaduna. For Warri, the rehabilitation was in phases of first, 21 months; then 23 months and the last 33 months.
As of the time of the announcement of the reactivation, the assurance of the readiness of the refinery to produce Premium Motor Spirit alias PMS but more widely known as petrol was glossed over, which was the major product the generality of Nigerians was ardently longing to have. ThisDay gave the hint that as of the time Mele Kyari and his team were on tour of the plant the refinery was going through a “test-run of its refining processes, and Naphtha had yet to be transferred to the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit for production of Premium Motor Spirit, (PMS) that is petrol or gas.
This column did admonish NNPCL to see any lingering doubts as expressed by former President Obasanjo and some experts in the oil industry as burden and a challenge they must quickly discharge. Indeed, the doubts must be seen as energy tonic to fasten belts and to fire them to disabuse the mind of everybody and prove the Doubting Thomases wrong, and beat their chest that the two refineries, Port Harcourt producing 75 per cent of 150,000 barrels a day and Warri producing at 60 per cent of 125, 000 barrels are back on stream. Were the claims to prove Obasanjo right and end as a hoax, not after President Bola Tinubu has described the development in Warri as a historic milestone, it would be the biggest scandal of the century.
NNPCL did not appear to have heeded my warning: Alas, Obasanjo may have been proven right. Pray that we may not witness all turning out a hoax after all!! Otherwise, how do you explain Warri Refinery being shut down barely three weeks its reactivation was celebrated–greeted with so much noise-making, glamour and laudation, especially by Bola Tinubu. NNPCL said what they did in Warri was total overhauling. Now it is a new song: The plant is undergoing repairs for efficient service delivery and ensuring optimal operations. It was a routine maintenance programme. That was in in February. “On January 25, 2025”, according to NNPCL in a statement, “operations at WRPC Area 1 were intentionally curtailed to carry out necessary intervention works on select equipment, including field instruments that were impacting sustainable and steady operations. These intervention works are essential to ensure the production of specification finished and intermediate products, particularly Automotive Gas Oil and Kerosine. The routine maintenance is progressing as planned, and 1t will be back in operation within the next few days.”
Listen to the President when Mele Kyari announced the return of Warri facility to production following the successful completion of its reactivation: “The restart of Warri Refinery today brings joy and gladness to me” Bubbling with excitement, he said that now that the reactivation of Warri had been accomplished, attention should shift to Kaduna Refinery and kick it also back to life. In the case of Port Harcourt when it rolled back to life in November, the elated President said the refinery coming back on stream would contribute towards energy sufficiency, ensuring energy security, and raise, indeed, enhance export capacity. He saw it as being in alignment with his vision of what is touted unceasingly as Renewed Hope Agenda which is focused on shared economic prosperity for all. Stakeholders are expressing dishevelment and concerned that despite years of investment, little tangible results have come out of the refineries. Production has been erratic, up today, down tomorrow. Hardly does it exceed 42.23 percent of its installed capacity in six months. They have described the situation as disconcerting and pressed for holistic staff review.
I do hope the new captains in the different refineries will realise that all eyes are on them; and will remove the stain on the NNPCL raiment with dispatch. They cannot afford to let the nation down! Warri Refinery shutting down so soon will be seen as scandal enough to alarm the nation after humongous $897.6million was expended to bring it back to production. In some quarters, the rehabilitation of both refineries is already been described as a scandal.
THE SPATE OF DEFECTIONS
I have followed the gale of defections by governors, commissioners and ranking politicians in parts of the country, particularly recent ones in Delta State. According to reports, the likeable governor of Akwa Ibom State who has admirably taken after his predecessor, Udom Emmanuel, in terms of resourcefulness, hard work and unremitted application to set goals, is rehearsing. I am referring to no other than Mr. Umo Eno. The world will soon hear from him when he finishes warming up. For now, the world is waiting with baited breath.
Those who have crossed the line from PDP to APC are the governor of Delta State, Mr, Sheriff Francis Oborevwori with his deputy and his predecessor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and their supporters. The PDP structure was dismantled. The defection leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. The most disgusting is that of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa who in 2023 missed only by a hair’s breadth being the Vice-President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the platform of PDP. And come to think of it, the defection Oborevwori called a movement was framed in triumphal jollity and shameless celebration. To receive the defectors were the Vice-President, Kashim Shettima and Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC national chair, undoubtedly bubbling with fixation on 2027, who only see this, not as a debasement of our polity and of the lofty tone of our environment, but rather as building up a rich harvest of votes. They cannot see the consequences of raising a future generation bereft of principles who will show utmost contempt for honour and wholesomeness as well as dignified carriage, above all wholesomeness of our people and our land.
David Umahi then Governor of Ebonyi State, now the Minister of Works, again a dedicated administrator and resourceful engineer, defected from PDP to the APC, the step ladder he used to climb to the high office of the state governor. He got away with it. About the same time Professor Ayade, governor of Cross River did the same. Justice Ekwo, a “reincarnation” of Conrard Idowu Taylor (J.I.C.), learned, true and courageous, asked Omahi and his deputy to vacate their office and return their mandate to the PDP that gave them the step ladder to their positions. because his electors were PDP the mandate they gave to him was on the platform of PDP. The higher court looking only at the letters of the law, and not the spirit, nor the loud and disarming wisdom undergirding the Justice’s pronouncement, overturned the judgment, arguing that the grundnom spells out procedures to go through to remove a governor. Who could have envisaged that any senior government functionary at that level would without qualms abandon the platform that saw them to the highest echelon of governance in the state? The framers of the constitution did not in the widest of their dreams, did not think that a governor would leave his party for another without first honourably resigning. Since there have been no consequences for such disgraceful behaviour, the shamelessness continues with increasing converts.
And so, the truism rings loud and clear: A shameless people cannot be embarrassed! Where there is no shame the word propriety has no meaning. The society becomes a world of anything goes in which the thick line between right and wrong is blurred. And the argument ensues that the the words good and bad are subjective when in fact they are absolute: What is good is good and what is bad is bad and we can all feel them to our fingertips. What we are witnessing everywhere is the state of our collective inner being despite our vaunted religiousity: Hollow!
[OPINION] NLC & TUC Should Ensure Enforcement Of Labour Laws And International Instruments - Femi Falana, SAN
Admin![[OPINION] NLC & TUC Should Ensure Enforcement Of Labour Laws And International Instruments - Femi Falana, SAN](/media/k2/items/cache/1d9949855ee1394da4c0716390f04a44_S.jpg)
By virtue of section 16 of the Constitution of Nigeria, the State shall direct its policy towards ensuring: the promotion of a planned and balanced economic development; that the material resources of the nation are harnessed and distributed as best as possible to serve the common good; that the economic system is not operated in such a manner as to permit the concentration of wealth or the means of production and exchange in the hands of few individuals or of a group.and that suitable and adequate shelter, suitable and adequate food, reasonable national minimum living wage, old age care and pensions, and unemployment, sick benefits and welfare of the disabled are provided for all citizens.
Section 17 of the Constitution also provides that the conditions of work are just and humane, and that there are adequate facilities for leisure and for social, religious and cultural life; the health, safety and welfare of all persons in employment are safeguarded and not endangered or abused; there are adequate medical and health facilities for all persons: there is equal pay for equal work without discrimination on account of sex, or on any other ground whatsoever.
In utter violation of the economic objective of the State, the members of the ruling class have sold public enterprises and awarded oil blocks and granted licences for solid minerals to themselves.Thus, the State has engaged in concentrating the commonwealth in the hands of a few people contrary to the letter and spirit of the Constitution. However, some of those who lost out in the criminal diversion of the commonwealth through privatisation and award of oil blocks have engaged in the smuggling of solid minerals.
Even though the members of the ruling class have conspired to make the fundamental objectives and direct principles of state policy non justiciable in any court, the struggle of the Nigerian people for dividends of democracy has compelled the State to adopt policies and enact a numbers of laws that are designed to promote the welfare of the Nigerian people. Such welfare and labour include Labour Act 2004, Trade Union Act 2004, Child Rights Act 2003, Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act 2004 and Federal Mortgage Bank Act 2004, Factories Act 2004.
Others include Employees Compensation Act 2010, Pension Reforms Act 2014, National Senior Citizens Act, 2017, National Housing Fund (Establishment) Act, 2018, Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act 2018, National Health Insurance Authority Act, 2021, Student Loans (Access to Higher Education) (Repeal and Re-enactment) Act 2024 and National Minimum Wage Act, 2024.
In addition to the above laws, Nigeria has ratified and enacted the African Charter on Human and Peoples Rights. Articles 15, 16, and 17 of the law provides that every individual shall have the right to work under equitable and satisfactory conditions, and receive equal pay for equal work as well as the right to health, and right to education.Furthermore, section 254(C)(1) of the Constitution has conferred exclusive jurisdiction and power to deal with any matter connected with or pertaining to the application of international best practices and international Convention, treaty or protocol of which Nigeria has ratified relating to labour, employment, workplace, industrial relations or matters connected therewith, notwithstanding anything to the contrary in the Constitution.
It is regrettable to note that the above laws are observed in breach by the Nigerian neocolonial state to the detriment of the working people. An example is the Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act which has imposed a legal duty on the federal and state governments to ensure that every child is given free and compulsory education from primary school to junior secondary school. The immediate past Executive Secretary of UBEC, Dr. Hamid Bobboyi, during his presentation of the 2020 and 2023 budget implementation report to the Senate Committee on Basic and Secondary Education in Abuja, disclosed that N135,540,905,308.92 in matching grants have not been accessed by states in the last few years.
Owing to the refusal of state governments to contribute counterpart funds to access the matching grant of about N135 billion in the UBEC Account as stipulated by the law, Nigeria has 20 million out of school children. The Alliance on Surviving Covid-19 and Beyond (ASCAB) dragged the Federal Government and the 36 state governments to the Federal High Court seeking to compel them to comply with the education laws. Since there is no defence to the case, the defendants have challenged the locus standi of the plaintiffs to institute the action. The implication of the preliminary objection is that the state governments are not prepared to provide education for the children of the poor and vulnerable people.
In the public service, top public officers augment their salaries and allowances with payment of security votes and estacodes from foreign trips. Even though the National Minimum Wage Act is a valid and substiting legislation, about 20 states have yet to implement the N70,000 new minimum wage for local government workers and primary school teachers. Several employers of labour have equally refused to comply with the provisions of the National Minimum Wage Act. The federal government has refused to ensure full compliance with the law.
Furthermore, the recent data released by the National Pension Commission show that total assets in the Nigerian Pension industry rose by 23% year-on-year to N22.5 trillion in December 2024. instead of ensuring that pensioners are promptly paid their pension, the federal government has borrowed N10 trillion from the fund. Worried over the concern of pensioners, the House of Representatives has resolved to recover the loan on the ground that most pensioners are unable to access their retirement funds despite complying with the requirements of the contributory pension scheme.
Specifically, the House Committee was mandated to investigate the status of the pension fund assets of over N15.5 trillion with a view to ensuring that the N10 trillion loaned to the federal government from the pension fund is duly recovered and modalities are put in place to hinder the collapse of the pension schemes.
Under the Federal Mortgage Bank Act, workers are required to contribute to housing primarily through the National Housing Fund (NHF), where a mandatory 2.5% of their monthly salary is deducted and remitted to provide affordable housing loans to eligible workers. The contribution, together with other contributions from other lowly placed citizens, helps to fund the NHF.
The National Housing Fund (NHF), like other interventionist administering programmes, has become a subject of abuse and fraudulent practice. In November 2024, the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC) arraigned Mr. Gimba Ya’u Kumo, former chief executive officer of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), for allegedly diverting $65 million housing funds. The money was for the construction of 962 units of residential houses at the Goodluck Jonathan Legacy City in Kubwa, a satellite town in Abuja.
The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress should closely monitor the trial and request the ICPC to investigate the allegation made in 2012 by Mr. Gimba Ya'u Kumo, that some "unscrupulous employers" had milked the fund dry to the tune of N100 billion. The NLC and the TUC owe workers a duty to ensure that the stolen sums of $65 million and N100 billion are recovered and utilised for building houses for workers.
It is indisputably clear that the enforcement of the above welfare and laws as well as international instruments will go a long way to improve the living conditions of the Nigerian people. Therefore, it is high time that the Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress mobilised workers and allies to mount sufficient pressure on the federal government to enforce the welfare laws and international instruments.
![[OPINION] Atiku, Not Tinubu, Is the Wrecking Ball - Azu Ishiekwene](/media/k2/items/cache/6c4de7e2c83af004e88aae5c01d1639c_S.jpg)
There’s a concern that Nigeria could soon become a one-party state, not by law, like in China, but through subterfuge – or in legal terms, de facto – similar to Cameroon, Uganda, Equatorial Guinea, or even Rwanda, where the ruling parties are inflicting a slow, painful death on the opposition.
Those who express this concern have given many reasons. The clearest and most troubling, it seems, is the wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) that has depleted the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Wave after wave
Apart from Federal lawmakers from Osun to Kaduna and Niger States who have defected, as of April 25, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State and his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa and the entire Delta PDP structure defected to the APC, with more defections still anticipated nationwide. It’s likely that soon, five of the six South-South states, which have been the bastion of the PDP since 1999, may fall.
Concerned persons, mainly those in the PDP and civil society, have said these are not defections. Instead, they argue that they are negotiated exits by politicians to evade trial by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) or for the personal political gain of the governors and other defectors. They have blamed the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for instigating the defections out of a desperation to win the 2027 presidential election because his record in office cannot save him.
Chasing shadows
I think it’s nonsense. And though he did not use these words, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, out of self-interest, put it more elegantly when he said he believed that defections are a fact of Nigerian politics and defectors are merely exercising their freedom of association under the law.
A serial defector himself, and sixth-time contender for the presidency, it would have been a surprise if he said anything else. The problem, according to Atiku, is not the defections but the two-year record of performance that, all things being equal, cannot return the president to office.
However, if the worst fear of Atiku and the opposition comes through, as is likely, and President Tinubu returns to office in 2027, as is probable, it would not be because of the defections; it would be because Atiku paved the way for the destruction of the PDP. He has proved to be the party’s undertaker-in-chief, something not often said, because it is convenient to blame Tinubu.
Best chance lost
For example, Sule Lamido, a leading member of the PDP, reportedly said on Tuesday that “the President should be fair” and save the opposition from being crushed. I’m unsure how much Lamido will pay Tinubu for self-sabotage. It’s surprising that one of the PDP’s founders does not know that a few of the founders ruined the PDP, and no one but its remnant can save it.
The party’s best chance since it lost power 10 years ago was in 2023 when the APC was at its most vulnerable. The government of President Muhammadu Buhari would have viewed a hostile takeover by the opposition PDP as mercy killing, if not as an act of charity. Lamido knows, more than anyone else, that Atiku stood in the way.
Rolling stone, no moss
After contesting and losing the APC primaries to Buhari in 2014, Atiku defected again to PDP in 2017 and contested the PDP primaries in 2019. At that time, the PDP was recovering from the catastrophic defeat of 2015, during which it lost nine of its 22 states and 93 seats in the National Assembly. In the winner-takes-all creed of the presidential system, the PDP faced a long harmattan of recriminations and decay while Atiku was away.
However, the party was gradually rebuilt, primarily through the efforts of Nyesom Wike, the Rivers State Governor at the time. When Atiku returned, the party was not what it was in its heyday. Still, it was not the ramshackle he had abandoned.
The calamitous record of the APC under President Buhari, the party’s division leading up to the 2023 election, and the overall mood in the country at that time indicated that Nigeria was vulnerable to a hostile takeover. The country was fed up with the APC.
Marabout’s prophecy
But Atiku, being Atiku, felt obliged to live up to the marabout’s prediction in 1998 that he would one day be Nigeria’s president. It was this pursuit of prophecy that got him into trouble with President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2003; it was the blind pursuit of it that drove him from the PDP to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and later to the APC. The obsession with this prophecy finally brought him back to the PDP. He just had to run.
But it shouldn’t have happened in 2023. While the odds favoured another party to succeed the exhausted APC, it certainly did not favour a northerner to run. Not after eight years of Buhari, a Northerner, not after Tinubu had wrested the flag of the APC, and certainly not when the convention in the PDP favoured rotation.
Atiku cast aside the odds, defied the restraints of common sense, ignored the party’s convention and a last-minute understanding after a key London meeting, and subverted the primaries to carry the flag. Things, quite naturally, fell apart.
Looking for a scapegoat
The rest is history. The PDP lost. The party that boasted that it was Africa’s largest party, destined to rule for 60 years, lost its way, leaving its members desperately searching for shelter and rehabilitation, and looking for rest wherever it may be found.
How can that be Tinubu’s problem when Atiku, the wrecking ball, still sits pretty? I understand the hysteria in the opposition, but it does not have to waste its current misery looking for scapegoats outside. Two years is still a reasonably long time to rebuild. The rise of Peter Obi nine months to the last general election and the impact the Labour Party made show that voters will reward a viable alternative platform.
The word here is viable. Not a party led by opportunists who have made a life career of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. Say what you like about Tinubu, he has stood with his progressive brand of politics for nearly 30 years, even standing alone against all odds and at significant personal and reputational costs.
Go, Atiku, go
If the PDP is serious about a future, and Atiku cares about it, he must immediately drop his ambition to run again. This ambition is at the heart of the current turmoil in the party; it was why the PDP broke into three factions on the eve of the last election; it was why he has been unable to rebuild the ruins two years later. And it is why he is arguably the first Nigerian presidential aspirant to lose two running mates to defections.
There’s no point blaming Tinubu for the wreckage, or getting angry with Okowa for sexifying his incredible opportunism as the beginning of a movement. PDP will get a fresh start on life when Atiku, the main obstacle, steps down. Everything else is a waste of time.
[OPINION] Good Riddance Or Divine Rebirth? Is God Flushing Out The Bad Eggs From PDP?” - Isaac Asabor
Admin![[OPINION] Good Riddance Or Divine Rebirth? Is God Flushing Out The Bad Eggs From PDP?” - Isaac Asabor](/media/k2/items/cache/1f5934e575ecb901c9122f321c04c2f8_S.jpg)
The popular English proverb “Good riddance to bad rubbish” is often uttered in frustration or finality when someone or something unpleasant is finally out of the picture. It is a phrase steeped in exasperation, relief, and sometimes vindication. In the past few years, and more pointedly in the post-2015 political reality of Nigeria, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once the self-proclaimed largest political party in Africa , appears to be undergoing a slow, painful, but possibly divinely orchestrated self-cleansing. Could it be that this proverbial saying is finding expression in the PDP’s current woes? Could the turmoil that has rocked the party from within be God’s way of flushing out the bad eggs that contributed to its fall from grace? It is a question worth pondering, analytically and spiritually.
In fact, to appreciate the gravity of the PDP’s current predicament, one must recall where it once stood. For sixteen years, from 1999 to 2015, the PDP held the reins of power in Nigeria. It boasted of national spread, robust war chests, and a grip on political patronage. It was a party of godfathers, rainmakers, and kingmakers. It was the “big tent” that every politician aspired to shelter under, until it was not.
In retrospect, the PDP’s descent began subtly, with internal contradictions and an over-reliance on incumbency power rather than genuine party discipline or ideology. It reached a climax when, in 2015, it suffered a historic defeat at the hands of a rebranded opposition coalition, the All Progressives Congress (APC). That loss not only ended its uninterrupted streak but also exposed the fissures and self-inflicted wounds that had been festering under the surface.
In fact, prior to its ongoing crisis of unprecedented mass defections of its members, the PDP had wobbled from one crisis to another: leadership tussles, mass defections, lack of internal democracy, and contradictory messaging. Most recently, the party’s inability to field a united front in the 2023 elections, including the G5 Governors rebellion, the Atiku-Wike standoff, and the endless tug-of-war between the old guard and emerging forces, has shown that something is fundamentally wrong.
Let us not sugar-coat it: the PDP has become a party weighed down by egos larger than its logo. Many of its leading figures are more interested in personal political survival and fiefdom-building than national development or ideological cohesion. Some have used the party as a personal estate, others as a springboard for negotiation and cross-carpeting, while some others remain embedded merely to block younger or more competent individuals from rising.
How else do we explain the kind of internal sabotage that marked the 2023 elections? Why was it so difficult for a party that governed Nigeria for 16 years to put aside internal wrangling to form a united front against a ruling party burdened with economic crises, insecurity, and public discontent?
It would not be an exaggeration to say that some PDP chieftains, by their actions or inactions, were more interested in destroying the house if they could not control it. This is where the phrase “good riddance to bad rubbish” begins to make spiritual and political sense.
Given the backdrop of the foregoing, it is germane to ask, “Could this be divine intervention?”
From a spiritual lens, which cannot be ignored in a religious society like Nigeria, one is tempted to see the PDP’s gradual unravelling as a divine pruning process. The Scriptures are replete with examples of God purging institutions, nations, and people before rebirth or redemption. Could it be that God is using the chaos in PDP to flush out the political merchants, power-mongers, and wolves in sheep’s clothing who hijacked the party?
In this context, those who have exited the party, whether voluntarily or due to suspension, may actually be the proverbial bad eggs. Those whose activities have brought nothing but division, suspicion, and backstabbing might just be receiving divine redirection, or rejection.
From the ouster of Uche Secondus to the rebellious stance of Governor Nyesom Wike, from the defection of prominent figures like Dave Umahi, and from the tornado-like defection just witnessed in Delta State few days ago, to the seemingly unending friction between northern and southern blocs within the party, every shake-up could be interpreted as part of a larger divine design to flush and purge.
It is worth noting that even Jesus had to cleanse the temple of moneychangers and political opportunists in His time. Why should the PDP not go through its own purging season?
For those still holding onto hope for the PDP, this ongoing self-cleansing may be a good thing, if properly channeled. The party now stands at a crossroads: reform or become irrelevant. It must choose between remaining a vehicle for political rent-seekers or transforming into a truly ideologically driven opposition party.
Against the backdrop of the foregoing view, it is expedient to suggest in this context that a new PDP must rebuild its core ideology, democratize internal processes, encourage youth participation and hold leaders accountable.
Explanatorily put, it is not out of place to opine that for too long that the party has operated like a non-ideological platform of convenience. Therefore, it must define what it stands for and articulate policies that genuinely connect with Nigerians.
In a similar vein, the party’s primaries, delegate systems, and leadership selection must be transparent and inclusive, and most importantly, godfatherism must give way to meritocracy.
Also in a similar vein, there is an urgent need for the party to encourage youth participation. This is as a party whose average leader is 65+ cannot effectively represent a country where the median age is 18. The party must empower new voices, fresh ideas, and youth-driven leadership.
Again, loyalty to the party must not trump accountability. Those who sabotage, defame, or trade the party for personal gain should not be protected, and the party must reconcile warring factions, even as it must also learn from past mistakes, considering the fact that loyalty must be earned, not begged for.
At this juncture, it is expedient to ask, “Who’s next in the dustbin?” To answer the foregoing question, it is germane to opine that as the PDP gropes for a new path that there are still individuals within the party whose personal ambitions outweigh party interests. There are still those who treat the PDP as a retirement home or bargaining chip. If the party is serious about rebirth, more exits, voluntary or enforced, may still come. And perhaps they should.
The reason for the foregoing view cannot be farfetched as sometimes, survival requires subtraction before addition. The wheat must be separated from the chaff. The lion’s den must be cleared of foxes.
In fact, topnotch affiliates of the PDP should not regret that their members are defecting to other parties, particularly the APC, rather, they should use the unarguable disguised opportunity to reflect on the future of the party.
The PDP must reflect deeply. The mass exodus, defections, internal implosions, and trust deficit are painful, but perhaps necessary. If the party sees this season as a divine wake-up call and not a death sentence, it may yet rise from the ashes.
Let no one mourn the departure of the bad eggs. Let no tears be shed for political spoilers, saboteurs, and opportunists. If anything, their exit opens a path for younger, smarter, and more ideologically sound minds to steer the PDP back to relevance.
So yes, perhaps the proverb “good riddance to bad rubbish” is not just a saying, it is a prophecy finding expression in the PDP’s journey. And who knows, just maybe, this is how God chooses to save Nigeria’s opposition from itself.
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[OPINION] Expediency Of Making Political Defection In Nigeria Costly And Unattractive - Isaac Asabor
Admin![[OPINION] Expediency Of Making Political Defection In Nigeria Costly And Unattractive - Isaac Asabor](/media/k2/items/cache/87ef1b24fcda884b59e59f93b3b359d5_XS.jpg)
The gale of defections in Nigeria’s political sphere has become not only repetitive but increasingly dangerous to the integrity and growth of our democracy. Politicians now switch political parties with reckless abandon, often for selfish gain, without consideration for the electorates that handed them the mandate. What was once considered an exception has now become the norm. It is high time this damaging trend is confronted and curtailed. The urgency now lies in making defection both legally costly and politically unattractive.
Unless Nigeria enacts and enforces stringent legal and judicial frameworks that make defection a serious political gamble, one that comes with the forfeiture of political office, the phenomenon will persist, to the detriment of our democratic evolution.
In fact, since the return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria has witnessed countless high-profile defections. Politicians hop from one party to another, particularly during election seasons or when a different party assumes power at the federal or state level. These defections are hardly based on ideology or genuine dissatisfaction with governance structures. Instead, they are driven by political expediency, pursuit of influence, protection from probes, or access to public funds.
Unfortunately, voters are made powerless spectators in this charade. They elect leaders based on party ideologies and manifestoes, only for those leaders to abandon the very platforms that brought them to power. This act of betrayal undermines representative democracy, reduces voter confidence, and destroys the principle of political accountability.
Worse still, entire legislative houses in some states have flipped allegiances overnight without a single vote being cast. The ease with which this occurs suggests a total breakdown of democratic values.
Aptly put, political defections in Nigeria political sphere has become a constitutional loophole, and a tool for manipulation. This is as Nigeria’s constitution does make some provisions against defection. Specifically, Section 68(1) (g) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) states that a legislator shall vacate his seat if he defects from the party that sponsored him, except where there is a division in the party. It is this exception clause that has become a major loophole.
To worsen the matter, politicians and their lawyers often conjure up evidence of “factional crisis” within their former party, whether genuine or fabricated, just to escape disqualification. Sadly, the courts have in many instances upheld such arguments, further emboldening the practice.
For members of the executive, governors and presidents, the constitution is even more silent. Despite the fact that they also rise to power through political parties, their defection is seen as a personal decision that does not affect their mandate. This perception is both illogical and dangerous.
If we are serious about strengthening our democracy, this lacuna must be fixed immediately. The mandate should be tied to the political party, not just the individual. The current system allows politicians to abuse the electoral process and walk away without consequences.
Against the backdrop of the foregoing view, it is germane to opine that the judiciary must play its role in defending the sanctity of the people’s mandate. Courts have occasionally stepped up, sacking defectors or ordering reruns, but these rulings are sporadic and lack consistency. The highest court in the land, the Supreme Court, must step in and provide a uniform interpretation on the issue of defection.
One route the judiciary can take is to revisit and clarify Section 221 of the Constitution, which provides that it is political parties, not individuals that contest elections. If a party owns the mandate, then logically, any defection should trigger a loss of seat or position.
There should be a binding judicial pronouncement that compels any politician who defects to resign immediately and seek a fresh mandate under the platform of their new party. Anything less is a rape of the democratic process.
To arrest this menace once and for all, Nigeria needs new laws that compel defectors to vacate their positions immediately upon defection. They must then recontest and win elections under the new party if they wish to retain their positions. This is not a novel idea. It is a democratic ideal that reaffirms the supremacy of the electorate.
Let the voters decide whether they support the change in political affiliation. If the defector is truly popular and the switch is ideologically justified, then he or she will win again. If not, they must be shown the exit door.
This reform will drastically reduce the culture of political prostitution and restore sanity to our political space.
Furthermore, political parties that receive defectors should be held responsible for encouraging anti-democratic practices. There should be penalties, financial or administrative, for any party that promotes or rewards defections.
In fact, there are lessons to be learnt from other parts of the world on political defection. This is as other democracies have handled this challenge with firmness and clarity. For example, India introduced the Anti-Defection Law in 1985 via the Tenth Schedule of its Constitution. This law mandates the disqualification of any elected lawmaker who defects without just cause. It was specifically designed to stop the frequent party-hopping that plagued Indian politics during the 1960s and 70s.
Thanks to this law, political stability improved in India, and elected officials became more cautious about switching affiliations. Nigeria must follow suit and craft similar legislation that reflects our political realities.
Appraising the real cost of defection, it would be revealed that at its core, defection hurts governance. It shifts focus from development to political survival. It creates rifts within legislative houses, frustrates policy continuity, and encourages loyalty to power rather than to people or ideology. It also promotes political blackmail, where lawmakers use defection as a bargaining chip to escape consequences or extract concessions.
Above all, it disempowers the voters. When a person elected on the platform of Party A defects to Party B without returning to seek the people’s approval, it reduces the electorate to mere pawns in a power game.
Without a doubt, the prevailing gale of defection in Nigeria at the moment does not speak well about democracy. It is daylight robbery!
Given the anti-democratic nature of the foreboding gale of defection, it is germane to contextually raise the red flag by saying that time to rescue Nigeria’s democracy is now.
If we are serious about reforming Nigeria’s political landscape and building enduring democratic institutions, then we must make defection unattractive. We must make it a serious political offense that carries weighty consequences, including the forfeiture of position and a compulsory reelection.
The time has come for the National Assembly to move beyond endless rhetoric and take legislative action. Let them pass a comprehensive Anti-Defection Law that mirrors the realities of our political system. Let the judiciary interpret and enforce these laws boldly. Let the electorate demand accountability from those who betray their trust.
Until defection becomes a gamble with real consequences, Nigerian politicians will continue to treat political parties as disposable tools and voters as expendable. Our democracy cannot grow under such a system.
The expediency of making defection costly and unattractive cannot be overemphasized. The nation stands at a crossroads, we either choose to defend the sanctity of the ballot or continue to let our democracy be auctioned to the highest bidder.
![[OPINION] Workers Day: Do Nigerian Workers Have Anything To Celebrate? - Isaac Asabor](/media/k2/items/cache/5f7931b9ff5527fb6600d127d132422c_XS.jpg)
As the world marks another International Workers’ Day, a day traditionally set aside to celebrate the sacrifices, struggles, and achievements of the working class, one cannot help but ask a painfully honest question: “Do Nigerian workers truly have anything to celebrate?” The answer, for many, is a resounding no.
Across various sectors, from the civil service to private enterprise, from factories to farms, classrooms to clinics, Nigerian workers are breaking their backs daily, yet have little or nothing to show for it. While the world uses this day to appreciate workers as the engines of the economy, in Nigeria, the occasion often serves more as a grim reminder of the broken social contract between the state and its workforce.
Without a doubt, not a few workers in Nigeria are earning salaries that cannot feed their families. Perhaps the most glaring injustice Nigerian workers face is the insultingly low remuneration. When compared with other nations, even within Africa, Nigerian workers are paid among the least. As of today, the national minimum wage stands at a paltry ₦70,000 per month, and which is not being paid by majority of employers in the private sector. You can imagine! A full-grown adult working full time in Africa’s largest economy earns the equivalent of less than a week’s grocery bill in most countries.
To put it into perspective, in South Africa, the minimum wage is undeniably higher, and also in Ghana, which has a higher minimum wage than Nigeria. Meanwhile, the Nigerian worker is expected to live, pay transport, feed a family, and maybe send children to school with ₦1,000 a day, and that is for those even lucky enough to receive the minimum wage consistently.
Ironically, even those in relatively well-paying jobs, and who are majorly medical doctors, engineers, lecturers, mid-level civil servants are not spared. Inflation has swallowed their salaries whole. By the time rent, food, transportation, and school fees are paid, there is little or nothing left. Most survive on multiple side hustles. A university lecturer, for instance, might be running tutorial centers, farming, consulting, and other side hustles, all just to keep the home running.
Without any iota of exaggeration, inflation has remained a silent killer of workers in Nigeria. Even more troubling is how inflation has silently and steadily eroded whatever value those wages once held. The cost of living has skyrocketed. A bag of rice now sells for roughly ₦85,000, up from ₦7,000 just ten years ago. A loaf of bread that cost ₦100 a few years ago now costs ₦1,500. Public transport has tripled in cost. Electricity bills have risen sharply, even when power supply remains epileptic. For those living in cities, especially Lagos and Abuja, it is a daily miracle to survive.
Medical bills? Out of reach. Most workers today can no longer afford quality healthcare. In emergencies, many resort to traditional remedies or prayer. Sadly, even death has become a luxury, coffins are expensive, and burials even more so.
Another plague Nigerian workers face is debt. Many are buried in personal loans, cooperative deductions, and loan apps just to make ends meet. Salary advances are normalized, and pension savings, if they exist at all, are either tampered with or inaccessible.
Then there is the modern-day slavery practiced by many employers, especially in the private sector. In some establishments, workers are overworked and underpaid, denied leave, compelled to work weekends, and even forced to sign “no union” agreements. Domestic workers, security guards, factory hands, and junior staff are among the worst hit, with no protection whatsoever.
Worse still is the fact that job insecurity hangs over every employee like a sword. Retrenchments happen without warning. Contracts are terminated without compensation. The average Nigerian worker lives in fear; fear of speaking up, fear of being replaced, fear of unemployment.
Even in the public sector, where job security is supposedly guaranteed, workers suffer. Many are owed months of salary arrears. Promotions are delayed. Pensioners are treated like afterthoughts. Some states still struggle to pay gratuities owed to retirees from as far back as 2010. These old men and women, who spent their productive years serving the country, now die waiting for their entitlements, some collapsing in queues at government offices.
Many federal workers, teachers, and health workers have protested poor working conditions in the past year, but these protests are often met with empty promises or outright threats. Strikes, which ought to be a last resort, have become routine in Nigeria, not because workers enjoy abandoning their duty posts, but because it has become the only language governments and employers understand.
Given the backdrop of the foregoing view, it is disheartening that May 1st, a day that should serve as a beacon of appreciation and hope, has become a mere photo-op for politicians and employers. Year after year, we hear the same platitudes: “We appreciate our workers,” “We are working on improving salaries,” “We are committed to better welfare.” Yet nothing changes.
Beyond the empty speeches and token gestures, workers are left to navigate the same harsh realities year-round. Even worse, some state governors and government parastatals have hijacked the Workers’ Day celebration as a platform to campaign for popularity or divert attention from their failures. The parade grounds are littered with branded T-shirts, hollow speeches, and choreographed applause, but no real policy shifts or structural reforms.
Let us be clear: no nation can rise above the quality of life it provides its workforce. The real strength of any economy lies not just in GDP numbers but in the lives of the people who grease its wheels. The doctors saving lives in government hospitals. The teachers nurturing future leaders in under-equipped schools. The police officers and soldiers risking their lives for security. The journalists digging out the truth. The market women, drivers, bankers, engineers, factory workers, and artisans.
These people are the true heroes of our nation. They deserve more than one day of remembrance. They deserve more than token increments. They deserve dignity, respect, and most importantly, fair compensation.
Having lamented much in this context, it is high time the Nigerian government and corporate entities started treating workers like humans, not tools. The much-hyped minimum wage being paid to somewhat privileged workers in the civil service and some corporate bodies in the private sector of the economy, is not enough. Frankly speaking, it is still far below subsistence as it does not align with the real cost of living. Wage policies must be linked to inflation indices, reviewed periodically, and enforced uniformly across states.
Also, there is a dire need for stronger labor laws and stricter enforcement. Employers, both public and private, must be held accountable for violating workers’ rights. Pension systems must be sanitized, arrears cleared, and retirees paid promptly.
In a similar vein, unions must wake up. Some labor leaders have become too cozy with government, selling out the people they are meant to represent. A reawakening of principled, uncompromising labor activism is needed now more than ever.
Finally, we must all, as a society, change our perception of workers. Let us restore honor to labor. Let us recognize that there is dignity in work, whether white-collar or blue-collar.
In fact, workers deserve daily recognition, not just a date on the calendar. Therefore, as Nigeria joins the rest of the world to mark Workers’ Day, we must move beyond shallow celebrations. Workers do not need fanfare. They need food on the table, salaries that make sense, housing they can afford, and the assurance that their future, and that of their children, is secure.
Let this year’s May Day be a wake-up call to all stakeholders. Because, until the Nigerian worker has genuine reasons to celebrate, not just today, but every day, then May 1st will remain a mockery rather than a tribute.
While there is need for us to let the applause stop, and let the action begin, it is expedient to ask “Do Nigerian Workers Have Anything To Celebrate today, being Workers’ Day?
![[OPINION] Nigerian politicians cannot afford opposition - Abimbola Adelakun](/media/k2/items/cache/bbb5e3238740def84c26d8248be3bcb4_XS.jpg)
Against the background of ongoing defections to the All Progressives Congress by politicians from the so-called opposition parties, we still harbour the fear of a one-party state as an imminent reality. The truth is, what we run is already tantamount to a one-party system, a short historical distance away from the military era, where the head of state, who creates political parties, also hands political parties their respective defining ideologies. The multi-party democratic system, planked as it is on the distinctiveness of ideas and ideologies between parties, and requires the independence of political agents. Contenders must have equal chances to sell their moral vision to the people, contest for power, and maintain their stance even when they have not been voted to power. Also, the institutions must be autonomous enough to regulate the activities of political actors across the board. These are all features that have been seriously lacking in Nigerian politics.
Properly speaking, Nigeria does not even have political parties. What we have are platforms on which any candidate who can commandeer money and influence runs an election. The closest to an ideology that anyone will find in Nigeria’s present political arrangement is the desperation to seize power and, if that fails, to get as close to it as possible. Once upon a time, the PDP called itself the most formidable political party and boasted it would sustain power for the next 60 or even 100 years. They hardly survived one election cycle out of presidential power. Their party members virtually emptied themselves into the winning party even before the 2015 electoral losers had fully understood what had befallen them.
In any case, it does not quite matter which side wins an election because we will ultimately be governed by the same cross-carpeting agents. Our politics mostly lacks a distinguishing philosophy. Take, for instance, the APC. Does anyone have any examples of the progressive causes they have pursued since their founding? I even doubt anyone in the APC ever wonders if they are staying true to their “progressive” appellation. One can say the same for the PDP, whether as the “Peoples Democratic Party” or as “Power to the People.” One of the most laughable comments I read about the Labour Party during the 2023 elections was that it platformed a candidate whose antecedents did not match the “labour” ideology. There was an implicit assumption that the Nigerian “Labour Party” had an ideological affinity with the “Labour Party” of, say, the UK and Australia (which are typically peopled by social democrats) and should therefore act according to character. But there is nothing like that in Nigeria. Whatever name a political party calls itself is, at best, aspirational. It has little to do with what they can be trusted to always stand for. What matters is the control of federal power and mobilising resources for electoral victory.
Our politics has always been more of an aggregation of personalities managing their self-interests rather than an espousal of a governing vision. If you ever watch parliamentary debates in Nigeria, you would have noted that it never happens that lawmakers disagree with their peers based on any philosophy of how government should be structured. They all agree and disagree on the same thing; they collectively sign off the padded national budgets, and like serfs, they jump to their feet to chorus “on your mandate, we shall stand” when Bola Tinubu appears in their hollowed chamber. Without any internal differences, does it truly matter whether we have one party or a dozen?
Besides, the nature of our politics makes no room for abstract ideas. Elections are won or lost based on what they call “structure”, a euphemism for clout cultivated at grassroots levels and which will be sold to the highest bidder during elections. Politics is a pyramid scheme where those who hold sway at different levels exchange the votes of the people over whom they maintain some influence, and their calculations are always based on immediate material gains. The average Nigerian, too, hardly subscribes to a politics of ideas; people vote for personalities representing their identity groups and who they believe will hold power in trust for them. The platform on which such candidates compete hardly matters to our people, and it would seem superfluous for any party to maintain a distinctive ideology.
Perhaps, the biggest reason we never seem to evolve beyond a singularising political order is the nature of our economic system itself. We are largely an extractive economy, a system where the primary function of leadership is to manage and allocate raw resources. It is a political arrangement that makes the president disproportionately powerful since the opportunities for everyone’s social mobility are concentrated in his hands. He distributes to them based on the perceived degree of their fidelity to him. It is not in his personal interest to institutionalise the social instruments of democracy, and he will do everything to ensure opposition parties do not flourish.
If the “opposition” does not allow themselves to be amicably enticed with money and other offers, they will find themselves forcefully crippled. It is not strange that Ifeanyi Okowa, the man who could have become the vice president in 2023, is now crawling on his face to join the APC. He could simply have joined the APC without a fuss, like his peers had done, but he had to add a cringeworthy explanation. For a man who has a N1tn case with the EFCC, who can blame him for being practical? He is not the first person to join the APC to have his sins forgiven, as Adams Oshiomole once enjoined. Godswill Akpabio, the Senate President, too, was once in Okowa’s shoes. He joined the APC, and his case with the EFCC has been put in permanent abeyance. In a country where their president can suspend a governor, how many people will not bow and worship if their survival depends on it?
About the only time since 1999 “opposition” politics thrived in Nigeria was when the regional ACN contended with the national PDP. Now that power has changed hands, we know that the APC was hardly driven by ideological commitment during those years. Their “opposition” politics was funded by ambitious Tinubu with Lagos’ money. Once he got into power, he muted their bought voices. The only state in Nigeria where the “Lagos model” of sponsoring political opposition can replicate itself is Rivers State, and Tinubu has already anticipated that possibility. Not only did he undercut the strength of the PDP in that state by taking over one of their chieftains, Nyesom Wike, but he also showed his hand of power by suspending the substantive governor for six months. The Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, who—just months ago—stood defiantly on his two feet, now grovels before the almighty federal power. The reality of being out of power must have hit him.
Such is the disempowering nature of our democracy. It constricts our choices to either being rewarded for compliance or punished with marginality. The average career politician chooses the former for obvious reasons, but also because they are amoral like that. Let me be clear that the fear of a one-party state is a well-founded one. To the best of our ability, we must resist it from becoming fully official because it will further degrade our politics. Yet, we cannot just mourn a politics that we wished we had—rather than the one that is already operative.
![[OPINION] Big Data, AI and Public Policy Decision Making - Tunji Olaopa](/media/k2/items/cache/8f58b9d9b2b5769958ab63fd1aa909a1_XS.jpg)
As a directing staff at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru, I was charged, as one of my responsibilities, with bringing the participants at the senior executive courses (SEC) and other programmes up to speed on recent developments in public administration and management in the twenty-first century. One of the most significant developments, and the point of many excited discussion is public policy decision-making. Given that governments all across the world are judged on their performance of the function of policy formulation and service delivery (of course, the regulatory function is also significant), the policy architecture of any government must factor in intelligent policymaking that will transform policy intelligence revolving around governance and development decision-making processes. And if the public service must facilitate a professional and intelligent policy advice to the government in ways that orient the politics-administration dichotomy in public administration, then due attention must be given to new developments in intelligent policymaking in the twenty-first century.
However, the practical worry I usually communicated to the SEC participants is how, since its emergence, public administrators in Nigeria have failed to give decision science its right of place in administrative and management practices. The cutting-edge application of development in this fascinating field has only been exploited by industrial management. Decision science was significantly facilitated by Chester Barnard. In his groundbreaking The Functions of the Executive (1938), he outlines a theoretical framework that allows us to examine how organizations actually operate outside of any normative or prescriptive requirements. Bernard’s contributions connect between the rationality of organizational, rather than individual, decision-making processes, and the cooperative capacity required to facilitate decision-making. While organizational decision-making is more significantly logical and rational, it is often facilitated by social and strategic contexts, like clear objectives, specialization, the flow of information, etc.
The organizational rationality that Barnard was referring to does not translate into the “perfect rationality” of traditional economic models and theories. This concept assumes that in the decision-making process, the decision makers are fully equipped with the necessary information and data to make the best economic decisions. On the contrary, Herbert Simon undermined this assumption of a perfect decision-making. According to him, human fallibility makes it impossible to achieve the perfect standpoint—having the capacity and the resources to gather and process all the information and data required to make perfectly rational decisions. There is just too much uncertainty involved in how we decide, what we decide and the alternatives available in resolving our decisional dilemma. This therefore implies that in critical decision-making, cognitive limitations, policy complexity and resource constraints, Herbert Simon argues, that decision-makers only pursue satisficing rather than optimal solutions. A solution is satisficing if it is founded on rational and pragmatic principles and circumstances.
Given the many troubles and predicaments of the modern world, from climate change to political processes, and given the fact that we do not have all the answers we seriously need. This is where artificial intelligence and big data become the starting point of our attempt to understand before we can even predict or act. It is in this sense that decision science has learnt a lot from Barnard’s and Simon’s understanding of decisional rationality, and how computers and machines generally can contribute to the decision-making dynamics. We can therefore immediately see how the idea of a data-driven decisional strategy can assist governments across the world, and especially in Africa, to come to terms with critical policy intelligence required to backstop governance and development policies.
There is no gainsaying the fact that we now live in the world of big data and artificial intelligence. This is the age of the machine. The operation of social media platforms, their algorithmic underpinnings, and the emergences of enormous databases all indicates that the amount of data available in contemporary world is beyond staggering. It has been reported that Facebook, the social media platform, warehouses “300 petabytes of data about its 2 billion active users, or 150 megabytes of data per user.” Of course, the Cambridge Analytica scandal that ignited concerns about the misuse of data raised critical issues around the ethics of data usage. However, that same concern attends the extent to which governments can ethically deploy data-driven policy intelligence in the pursuit of the well-being of their citizens. And even beyond this, governments all across the world are now confronted with multiple dimensions of polycrisis that disarticulate all efforts at making sense of their governance and development circumstances and objectives. The deployment of artificial intelligence and big data—from financial transaction data to the internet of things (IoT), and so on—cumulate into the enhancement of the credibility of those governments who have the courage to exploit their usage for policy intelligence.
However, before any government can get to the zenith of credibility and legitimacy, there is the outstanding and fundamental issue of extracting meaning, purpose and direction from the enormous amount of data available. This involves designing the models that extract and interpret the data in ways that enable government to explain and predict things, situation and circumstances in the real world. Data scientists, in other words, assist the governments in formulating hypotheses, based on the identification of trends, patterns and flows that investigate current problematics, anticipate future challenges and proactively energize government policies. In a world where climate change has undermined lots of policy intelligences, where geo-spatial data analytics backstops the government’s infrastructure masterplans in terms of identifying geographic patterns, trends, dynamics and disparities so as to be able to initiate creative policy designs and formulations that prioritize investments, allocate resources more effectively, and facilitate service delivery.
We now need to confront the necessity of deploying artificial intelligence and big data at the level of public service institutions, especially in line with the imperatives of institutional reforms that have the objectives of bringing these institutions up to speed with modern technologies, procedures and administrative imperatives that can enhance the government’s capacity to efficiently deliver goods and services to the citizenry. This deployment must however go beyond the default level where pubic institutions are just compelled to adopt any reigning innovation without a significant feasibility study in terms of the fundamental utility of the innovation within an overall organizational reform blueprint. For example, as part of the institutional imperatives, public institutions have to factor in the challenges of privacy, security, data governance and data ethics.
What differentiates a good administration from a bad one is the intelligent policymaking capacity that is founded on policy intelligence. Within Nigeria’s governance framework and policy architecture, a reformed policymaking founded on big data and artificial intelligence demands that the public service adopts a change management programme that must first give attention to the (re)professionalization of the workforce, especially the senior executive service. The SES must be beefed up as a multidisciplinary elite team that is charged with the articulation of a strategic policy intelligence. This allows the SES to not only play a critical role in policymaking function, but also facilitate the strategic deployment of big data. Recruitment into this top-level administrative corps will be on the basis of intelligence, professionalism and performance rating.
The establishment of the SES will entail modifying the generalist composition of the workforce through a competency mapping that create a hub of specialists and experts specifically reskilled for the demands of new technologies, artificial intelligence, big data and data science. The second dimension of the change management is to link this generic professionalization to the reform of the department of planning, research and statistics in the MDAs. The DPRS could then serve as the effective policy hub that mediates the articulation of the demands of decision science and big data around the dynamics of data culture, data availability and action research capacity to interpret such data as input to policy and feedback.
Each DPRS will have to recruit, train and incentivize new officers who will be put in charge of regulating the new innovation. It is not just enough to innovate; it must be a guarded reform that is founded on a blueprint of how artificial intelligence, machine learning, data science and new technologies factor into the governance and development objectives of the Nigerian government. This will necessitate, for example, collaborating with research-based think tanks and institutes in ways that further enhance the quality of policy decision and the data dynamics needed to formulate policy intelligence.
The biggest requirement for harnessing the requirements of decision science is the political will of governments to go all out in traversing the challenges of institutional reforms, and especially of exploring and exploiting the intricacies of big data analytics in terms of its capacity to improve decision-making and the efficiency of service delivery to Nigerians. There is just no other alternative to the transformation of the policy architecture of the Nigerian government than the political willingness to become proactive in the institutional reform of the public service. Given the economic and governance challenges that the administration is confronting, the reality of the time is really auspicious with regard to the reform opportunities that global best practices have presented the Nigerian government with. There is no alternative to reform, and decision science is the opportunity to make it work for democratic governance.