Alaafin stool: Oyo prince drags Makinde to court, seeks nullification of Owoade’s appointment

Alaafin Stool: Oyo prince laments supporters’ betrayal for money

Atiba 9: why we won’t accept Owoade as Alaafin

Oba Lamidi Adeyemi, the Alaafin of Oyo, departed earthly life in April, 2022, aged 83. He was on the throne for 51 years. He came to office well prepared. He read widely, especially about the history of his forebears, of Oyo people—towns and settlements. He was always in his elements regaling his visitors with history of the Yorubas in general. Predictably so. If an Oba does not know the history, the story behind the story, of his people, then to whom does a seeker turn for enquiry and enlightenment? Much as he was prepared to share, he was equally ready to receive. Oba Adeyemi was imbued with wisdom, punctuating conversations with proverbs. On one occasion, he entreated a group of young visitors who visited him in his palace to do unto others as they would like done unto them. He did not put his admonition directly that way. He spoke in Yoruba language: Eniti o lo sin oku egbon e ni ihoho t’o mu aburo dani, aburo e so fun pe bi a se se t’oni be e lao se t’ola! Roughly translated, it would read: A man went to bury his elder brother without the customary funeral shroud spread on him, no cloths whatsoever, and in the presence of his younger brother. The young one said to him: As it is done today, so shall it be done tomorrow—to you! A funeral shroud is meant to give dignity to the departed.

Oba Adeyemi attended St. Gregory College, Lagos. This helped him to develop a liberal mind beyond what is customary among traditional rulers in the South-West where they are obliged to allow their townsmen express unhindered whatever spiritual values they may elect to profess. He left barely four months after the departure of two prominent Obas in his axis, Oyo State. The monarchs were the Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Saliu Adetunji; and the Soun of Ogbomoso, Oba Jimoh Oyewumi.

Because the throne of Alaafin is one of the foremost whether in history and influence in Nigeria, keeping the stool vacant for almost three years had started to raise eye brows and generate concerns, more so that the Olubadan stool and the Soun stool had been filled. What has been the cause of the delay in announcing a successor to such an important traditional office? So went the questioning on the lips of most people. It was public knowledge that the kingmakers known as Oyomesi had forwarded their recommendation to the State Government before the end of the year that Oba Adeyemi 111 passed away. The kingmakers met for two weeks to screen 82 on the shortlist of Princes that applied from the Agunloye Ruling House whose turn it was to produce the new Alaafin. The kingmakers themselves were worried about the foot-dragging by the government even after clarifications on eligibility of two warrant chiefs had been made by the Oyomesi to participate in the exercise. The Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde put paid to all speculations last week. He pulled a surprise by announcing a dark horse, someone who could not be said was in the reckoning whatsoever, whose name did not feature among bookmakers, yet about the most qualified in terms of educational background and exposure, for what the government must have adjudged are the requirements for these times.

The governor predicated his choice on wide consultations and divination. The kingmakers reacted immediately dismissing the government choice as illegal. Bashorun Yusuf Akinade and head of the Oyomesi said that the government did not follow the traditional due process. Government in doing so violated the Chieftaincy law of the state and as it concerned Oyo in particular. All eyes were on Prince Lukman Gbadegesin whose grandfather was Oba Adeyemi’s predecessor. He is by far the most visible of the princes that queued up to wear the coveted crown. He was Personal Assistant to Aruna Elewi, Minister of State for Communications in President Obasanjo’s Administration. He is close to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. But the first salvo of opposition came from his younger brother, Adebayo Gbadegesin who described him as ill qualified. He levied an accusation against the Oyomesi of not consulting Ifa. He accused his elder brother, of trying “to bring disrepute to those who God has honoured in Oyo.” Two other allegations are grave pointing to transactional baggage against him. Indeed, one grouse alleging threats to lives ended in a petition dated 20 November, 2019, to the Inspector- General of Police. The petition was signed by Henry Ejike Ugwu of H. E. Ugwu & Associates (Legal Practitioners), Abuja. 

Rapidly growing in renown for thoroughness, it is expected that Governor Seyi Makinde would have intelligence reports on the candidates and make consultations on them. The Oyo Alaafin throne, the seat of Oyo Empire must be both a flagship and an exemplar, and an office without stain. He has found one that matches his picture and vision in Prince Akeem Abimbola Owoade who has appeared in the horizon with glittering and impeccable testimonials. Step forward Oba Abimbola Owoade, the descendant of Oduduwa, the descendant of Oranmiyan, the descendant of Agunloye Royal Family.

Born in 1978, Oba Owoade is a product of Baptist High School, Shaki, the 1992 set. He is a graduate of Ibadan Polytechnic and Ilaro Polytechnic. He read engineering in the two polytechnics—in one, OND and in the second, HND.  He attended University of Sunderland (2008) where he had his BSc in engineering. He took his Masters also in engineering from Northumbria University (2012). He became certified in Project management in June, 2015. He held a planning engineer position at Oil Reach Company, Glasgow, United Kingdom for some years before moving to Canada where until he returned home to mount the ancient throne, he was project coordinator at Manitoba Hydro and Natural Gas Utility Providers.

The Kingmakers, rejecting Owoade as the Alaafin of Oyo, said they had selected Lukman Gbadegesin since 2022. But two of the seven-man members of Oyomesi, the Samu of Oyo, Lamidi Oyewale; and the Agbaakin of Oyo, Asimiyu Atanda had reservations about the process the Kingmakers employed and dissociated themselves from the decision. However, as the profile of the new King in terms of age and credentials spread, it is increasingly clear Owoade is the new face Oyo has been waiting for, the personality befitting the ancient high office of the Yoruba people. One of the contestants, Prince Ayobami Ladigbolu, congratulating the new Alaafin, Oba Abimbola Owoade, said: “He was chosen by God Almighty. Oba Akeem Abimbola Owoade has been destined to take the throne. I am happy for him. The entire Ladigbolu family felicitate with the new king. Congratulations. Kaabiesi.”  The warm embrace of the Ladigbolu family was no more than a hint foreshadowing the grand reception awaiting the new King. As soon as news spread that their King was arriving in town all shops and offices closed to receive him. All roads and all streets were jam-packed with people besieging and descending on the Palace to hail the new King. The crowd as was the reception was unprecedented in recent memories. Some just wanted to catch a glimpse of their king. Many were on horseback, some in cars, countless on motor-cycles. People were emerging from everywhere and from just nowhere.

In the painstaking recruitment of a new Alaafin, Seyi Makinde did not want to leave anything to chance and strangely, and perhaps to fulfill all righteousness, failing which he knew traditionalists would use to entrap him, he consulted the gods a step described as divination! He called up Professor Wande Abimbola, a former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Ife, now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, who is an internationally acclaimed medium and Ifa priest. First, what is medium outside of secular definition? Chambers 21st Century Dictionary revised Edition defines a medium as someone through whom the spirits of dead people are said to communicate with the living. Advanced Learners Dictionary (Second Edition) gives a fuller definition as follows: “A person who acts as a go-between, especially in spiritualism; person who claims to be able to receive messages from the spirits of the dead.” 

In the culture of South-West people, authority to select a king is expected to go beyond the earthly plane to consult what they regard as gods and goddesses or higher beings. The stars are not left out. It is clear from efforts to reach out to the gods or high beings in the beyond there is more to life than the modern man wants to make people believe. We now learn through higher knowledge mercifully made available to mankind today that everything radiates, everything emits rays and man is in the centre of webs of radiations—not as a victim, a great deal being what he has given rise to through thoughts, speeches and deeds and what he attracts to himself. 

Fateful works, for example, emit radiations and the stars also radiate. When this happens stars and fate are connected through radiations. The radiations of the stars form the channels through which the contents of the radiations are guided to the originator of deeds when the fruits are ripe. As Schiller says, “For, only when it is ripe does the fruit of Fate fall.” Longing to serve, what President Umar Yar’Adua called servant-leader, could have been as a result of seed sown way back in a previous earth-life, or as in the case of a Called one, a supplication to the Most High at certain Realms Above to be permitted to serve in the Light Envoy’s Work of Salvation and Redemption. In that case when the request is granted he is obligated to be exemplary in conduct, in service in his assigned role and in acts of goodness.

How helpful can we say of Seyi Makinde’s consultation with Professor Wande Abimbola? Of course, there is possibility for the gifted to receive messages from higher realms. The ethereal region more known as the Beyond is filled with multitudes separated into different planes of existence and perdition. There are helpers, and there are guides. Ifa has been known to help the Yoruba people in their recognition, revealing to them the structure of Creation and different Realms of Heaven up to what they call Ojude Orun, the Fore Court; Orun; Paradise of Human Spirits; There is Azure Island, Isalu Orun; Oke Orun, Summit of Creation; and Ajule Orun, the First Creation, Primordial Creation; The Elders at the Boundary of the Divine Realm, they call Agbagba Merindinlogun; and hold it: Imanuel, they refer to as Ela! Such a people can hardly be persuaded to jettison what has so glaringly helped them in their development.

What can determine whether contact with helpful helpers is, however, the inner state of the medium, the purity of his inner being, how rarified his environment in the earthly and the environment in the Beyond. It may so happen that when there is a message for an individual through a medium, it may be intercepted by a degraded, soiled soul along the way. The pure messenger conveying the message will steer clear to avoid being stained. The message if the impure soul somehow has access to it is consequently either substituted or distorted, and the medium is misled!

The matchless Work, In the Light of Truth, The Grail Message, by Abd-ru-shin, says: “Moreover it is certain that unless there is a human being of advanced development, whose presence purifies all coarseness, something really higher cannot approach a medium, much less speak through him. Materializations from higher circles are altogether out of the question, to say nothing of such popular pastimes as knocking, movement of objects, and so on. The gulf for this is far too wide to be easily bridged.

“Even with a medium, all these things can only be carried out by such souls in the beyond as are still very closely connected with matter. Were it otherwise possible, that is to say, if an exalted being could so easily make contact with humanity, then there would have been no need whatever for Christ to become man, but He could have accomplished His Mission also without this sacrifice. Men of today, however, are certainly no more highly developed psychically than in Jesus’ earth-life, so it cannot be assumed that it is easier to establish a link with the Light now than it was in those days.”

Yet, we need the link. But from where can guidance come if not from the chains of helpers connected with the Light in On High? The fault, indeed, is in our faults!

All said, in the Love and Mercy of the Lord, man is afforded all the help he needs for his sojourn and development on this planet earth. To redeem the indictment, what we need to do is to reverse the loss of the spiritual receptive capacity of the hind brain which is the vehicle of guidance for mankind. Man is meant to be more of a receiver than a thinker! The blood produces a radiation bridge, like a magnetic field, on which the spirit transports its messages. If the blood radiation is fine and healthy, the communication is smooth and successful. The spirit sends its messages in picture forms to the back brain which is the spiritually receptive part of our brains, and through the solar plexus, as I have mentioned in these pages before. That is why guidance is in pictorial alert. We say something strikes us or occurs to us. No spoken words are involved. The back brain uploads the picture on the blood radiation to the frontal brain, the cerebrum, the frontal brain, the intellectual brain. This brain decodes the pictures from the spirit into thoughts, words and necessary action. This is why dreams in which words are spoken are not real dreams. Real dreams are experiences of the spirit pictorially transmitted to the back brain. They are dreams in which words are not spoken and colours are distinct. They are experiences of the spirit for warnings or guidance.

There is no doubt that Governor Seyi Makinde has made a really good and wise choice in a well accomplished choice of Oba Akeem Abimbola Owoade, a refined, well polished fellow. I salute the governor’s courage and the wisdom manifested in his reaching out to Professor Wande Abimbola to satisfy all righteousness. Little wonder the platform of the Old Boys of Baptist High School, Saki, has been agog with celebratory writings and messages. That a foremost king in the South West, who, going through memory lane of Oyo Empire, can easily draw on the wisdom of his forebears, passed through their portals is, indeed, great cause for celebration. He is the second Oba, although the first may be of lesser status, to have been raised in their formative years by the school. The first is the Oba of Ago-Are, near Saki.

Seyi Makinde should beat his chest and rise to clink glasses for pulling out this feat! 

Chi Lael, the United Nations, UN, World Food Programme, WFP, spokesperson for Nigeria, addressed journalists last week and shared some alarming statistics.

She said that she would normally only speak for her own programme but had decided to make a joint statement on behalf of the WPF and two other UN agencies that also have responsibilities related to food security and nutrition issues because “these are not normal times”.

The two other agencies are the Food and Agriculture Organisation, FAO, and the International Children’s Emergency Fund, UNICEF.

Ms Lael added that the NGO Forum for Nigeria and various development partners stand by the main points in her statement, being that record inflation, triple digit increases in food prices, climate shocks and ongoing conflicts are projected to push the number of food insecure Nigerians to 33 million in 2025, a sharp increase from the 25 million who need assistance today.

There are 5.4 million children and 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women at risk of acute malnutrition. According to Ms Lael, never before have there been so many hungry people in Nigeria.

She also blamed the aftermath of devastating floods and 15 years of insurgency in the North-East for stretching families to the limit and named the most affected states: Borno, Adamawa and Yobe where five million people are facing acute food insecurity.

Zamfara, Katsina and Sokoto are not far behind and Ms Lael said that what worried her and her deeply concerned partners most was: the speed of deterioration over the past year,

the scale – in terms of number of people at risk, the geographic scope of food insecurity and

the very real risk of a significant worsening in the coming months.

“Our collective response,” she said, “must be immediate and massive in scale. It must span prevention, mitigation, and life-saving assistance. Preventative action in rural areas can halt the growth of hunger, providing the most vulnerable farmers with cash, seeds and fertiliser. Mitigation will reduce the scale of further crises.

“Urgent support in nutrition, health support, food supply and WASH (water, sanitation, hygiene) will reduce the depth of the crisis. And vital life-saving support will keep those facing acute food insecurity alive…government at state and federal levels must work together to avert the risk of famine. WFP, FAO and UNICEF, along with many other key partners, are already in full scale-up mode, reprogramming existing resources and preparing for a huge operational step-up.

“We have it within our grasp to stem this crisis and avert catastrophe in Nigeria. If we respond now…it can be done.”

I am less diplomatic than the admirable Ms Lael, so let me express the view that this appalling situation is primarily the fault of the Federal Government and the Northern elite.

Sure, Tinubu’s administration and Northern grandees cannot be blamed for everything that has gone wrong in that part of the country. Some humanitarian disasters are simply caused by acts of God, climate change, etc, that are beyond the authorities’ control.

It is also worth noting that Southern Nigerians are also going through hell because of hyperinflation, insecurity and other ills.

However, there is no denying that there is much more suffering in the North and that the Northern masses are at breaking point, thanks to the chronic negligence that has been inflicted on them by their particularly selfish, shameless and predatory leaders.

Africa is full of sad, bad stories like this. Some of these tragic scenarios are the result of corruption, violence and state capture, while others boil down to incompetence. And I don’t think anyone reasonable will argue with me when I say that the continent needs a governance revolution to extricate itself from the quagmire.

Professor Kingsley Moghalu, who heads a new African School of Governance, ASG, that was launched on Tuesday in Kigali, hopes to turn the tide by educating a new generation of young upcoming leaders to avoid the mistakes that have been made by their elders.

Moghalu is determined to make a difference and says that “the ASG envisions a prosperous and peaceful Africa where purposeful leaders drive sustainable development. Its mission is to empower Africa’s leaders through innovative public policy education and research that fosters transformative governance…Its curriculum will provide educational opportunities that are filtered through an African lens and anchored on realities that are unique to the African continent and the needs of its leaders and inhabitants”.

ASG’s programmes will target a diverse group of current and future leaders, including early and mid-career professionals, as well as established figures in the governance sphere.

ASG is hoping to attract students from as many African nations as possible. One can only pray that several Nigerians sign up for its short executive programmes and longer courses in droves…

…and that ASG alumni become a special visionary breed that will not only drag Africa into the 21st century and transform it into an oasis we can all be proud of but put an end to hunger and the brain drain.

If you want more information about ASG, Google will deliver.

The United States of America, USA is to present to the world next  Monday, January 20, 2025, its two faces. It will mark the Martin Luther King Jnr, MLK Day. The federal holiday which would be holding for the 39th year, is the American face of non-violence, civil and human rights. It is a day that propagates the basic philosophy and principles of equality, justice, and peace which MLK symbolized.

Ironically, it will also be the day its  new,  President Donald Trump whose philosophy stands in sharp contrast to MLK, would be sworn in for a second time.  Where the latter stood for non-violence, Trump is  inclined to violence. He also  has no care for civil or human rights including those of women. Where MLK is for peace, Trump is a leading advocate of furthering the USA  war economy. Where the former  is rational  and predictable, the latter  can be irrational and unpredictable.

In some cases, the fear of Trump may  be  the beginning of wisdom. For instance, Israel and Palestine, after fifteen months war with nearly 47,000 killed, have suddenly reached a peace deal. It is one in which both sides will  release political prisoners or prisoners of war, POW. Israel would pull back to Gaza’s perimeters and allow humanitarian aid flow into Palestine.  This is a task, out-going President Joe Biden  has been most reluctant to undertake. Rather, he concentrated on pouring  more weapons  into Israel and  seemed comfortable being  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unofficial spokesman. When there were cries about  Palestinian children being wiped out by the Israeli military, Biden’s response was that the numbers of those killed were exaggerated.

Biden may have a hand in the latest peace deal, but Trump has been taking credit.  He boasted about the Wednesday Peace Agreement: “The EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signalled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.” 

He has made a similar boast on the Russo-Ukrainian War.  The recent intensification of that conflict might be attempts by both sides to gain more territory before Trump is sworn in.  Russia, before the war, had pushed for peace deals under the MINSK I &II Agreements, and continues to call for a negotiated settlement. Ukraine on the other hand, after rejecting   the  MINSK Agreements, has been pushing for an outright military victory over Russia. Save for countries like Hungary and Germany that are not convinced victory would come on the battlefield, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO supporters of Ukraine  have, like motivational speakers, convinced Zelensky that he can militarily defeat Russia. But Trump does not have such beliefs and with him in the White House, neither Ukraine nor NATO can be sure of the maverick’s position.

Trump in the campaigns and shortly after his electoral victory had promised to negotiate the Ukrainian War with Russian President Vladmir Putin, end Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO  and impose a 10-20 per-cent tariff on America’s $1.3 trillion trade with Europe.  He  also threatened to impose similar tariff on China, BRICS Members and on America’s neigbours; Mexico and Canada.  

It is not only foreigners  warning  about a renewed Trump Presidency. Even Biden, whose under-performance and lack of principles, handed Trump  victory at the November 2024 polls over Vice President Kamala Harris, is also wailing.

In his Wednesday, January 15 Farewell Speech in the White House, he warned of a developing oligarchy and   the dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a very few ultra-wealthy people. This was an obvious reference to Trump and his close friends like  Ellon Musk and paypall co-founder, Ken Howery.  Biden lamented: “Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead.”

Also, in a little veiled reference to Trump who in his ‘alternative facts’  makes no distinction between the truth and falsehood, Biden cried: “Americans are being buried under an avalanche of misinformation and disinformation, enabling the abuse of power. The free press is crumbling, editors are disappearing. Social media is giving up on fact checking. The truth is smothered by lies told for power and for profit. We must hold the social platforms accountable to protect our children, our families and our very democracy from the abuse of power.”

But  Trumpism  may be  much more dangerous than Old Biden portrays.  Trump imagines himself a Superman, a neo- Tarzanist  swinging across the world; a cowboy with a badge, plucking down people. He sees himself as the world policeman beating everyone into line.  Trump  is a sword threatening to cut both ways,  sparing neither his assumed Chinese foes nor Western European allies, not even neigbours across the borders in Mexico and  Canada. As for us in the underdeveloped world, we are nothing more than a “shithole”

More dangerously, he wants to extend the frontiers of the US to new colonies. For instance, on Sunday, January 12, 2025 he indicated that the USA  wants to take over  Greenland. He wrote: “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

He was more direct on the Panama Canal which he threatened to seize because he claims that the fees being charged by the Panamanian Government for ships passing through it were too high. Referring to the  USA control over the canal until 1977,  Trump said he would demand that the: “Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, quickly and without question” When Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino responded that: “Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belong to PANAMA, and will continue to be.” Trump retorted: “We’ll see about that.”  He then  posted a photo of the American flag  over the canal with the caption: “Welcome to the United States Canal!”

He may also,  with the assistance of allies like  Elon Musk, want to colonise the  outer space.

Trump is like a reflated ego making a second grand entrance on the world stage. He first came as a phenomenon; his second appearance might be no more than a caricature. What is roaring like a lion and rumbling in the  jungle? Is it the same Trump that four years ago was trampling on grass and uprooting trees like a frightened     elephant? The next few years would reveal if we are dealing with the same being or one that has undergone some transformation or transmutation. Whatever it is, even this, shall come to pass.

Gerry Nolan, writing on a Russian-backed news platform called Pravda has issued a dire warning on the fate of the euro and dollar, in a widely-publicised article titled ‘The Euro’s Imminent Collapse and the Greenback’s Last Illusion’. The kernel of his writeup is that because the European Union seems to have ceded monetary policy sovereignty to the US by going along with the US agenda to seize $300 billion worth of sovereign investment belonging to Russia as a consequence of the Ukraine-Russia war, it was just a matter of time before the euro collapsed as the world has been signalled as to the risk of investment in western nations. Nolan believes that whereas the Euro will be the first victim, the US dollar too will soon tumble after.

The writer brings attention to the power of trust in the value and future of the world’s major currencies. There is also the substitution effect to consider. Gold prices have skyrocketed to an all-time high of above $2,600, and as Nolan posited, it may skyrocket some more for this reason as people make a dash for other alternative stores of value. Nolan mentions the $36 trillion debt underpinning the euro as a currency, another $200 trillion unfunded liabilities, recent declines in the value of that currency, as well as the low to no economic growth prospects in the union as problems that will have real consequences.

But whether we believe in Nolan or not is not the issue. Though we shall come back to consider the matter of currency values and how they impact the equity markets and the viability/vibrancy of stock exchanges, I have had cause to consider the fate of stock markets around the world, with some serious questions in mind. Many stock exchanges have been complaining bitterly about delistings and relatively low liquidity lately. Stock delisting is a scenario where existing listed stocks choose to remove themselves by management decision, from being publicly traded, or are forced to do so because they are not meeting the requirements to stay listed. It used to be a great ambition for many companies back in the day, to get listed as a sign of success and maturity.

Today, it looks like the sentiment is the opposite. It is a major struggle to find new listings on many exchanges – and this is an international issue. The essence of this article is to find out what is happening, why it may be happening, and what countries like Nigeria can do to stem the tide and fight against this decline.

On the 6th of January 2025, the London Stock Exchange – one of the oldest in the world – saw the record delisting of 88 stocks. Many others in the world have seen such lethargy, with the US (New York) stock markets being a beneficiary in many instances. Yet many other companies have voluntarily delisted simply to remain as private companies. And what is more? I believe that even the successful exchanges today have reason to worry about the imminent future, which is packed with surprises.

The London Stock Exchange is not alone in its predicament. An article titled “The global supply of equities is shrinking – here’s what you need to know” published on the 24th of April 2024 by the World Economic Forum’s Emma Charlton states inter alia: “There has been a drop of nearly 75% of companies listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange between the 1960s and the end of 2022… Similar data for public companies in Germany shows a drop of more than 40% since 2007, and in the US, there’s been around a 40% drop since 1996… London’s stock market has lost 25% of its companies in the past decade, according to Bloomberg, citing data from the London Stock Exchange that includes the main and junior markets”

Now, my wager. Could the following conjectures be true?

That there is a generational shift away from ‘slow’ investments such as equities (which are supposed to be naturally held long term as bet on the management of companies and the viability/competitiveness of their products or services which results in profits, dividends, rights issues and such like)? JPMorgan’s Nikolas Panigirtzoglou explains in the referenced article that ‘the alternative investments market, that includes hedge funds, real estate, digital assets, private credit and private equity, grew to $26.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, up from $25.5 trillion at the end of 2022. This means equity investments face lethal competition. Those numbers have grown in the last two years. The options open to a young, tech-savvy investor among Gen Zs and Generation Beta (born 2012 and later) has certainly ballooned out, with many of those options being rather unconventional.

That since there is a strong relationship between the confidence that investors repose in the underlying currency underpinning equities investment, and the investment itself, the mass movement to, and consolidation of the US stock market is a result of investors expressing confidence in the US dollar as a dominant global currency. However, the US dollar also has its own fair share of problems if we are to believe analysts like Greg Nolan.

Who is safe?

Well, I personally believe both opinions expressed above are true, going by observations of the market. Generation X and Z, and Beta folks (who are 40 years and below), and who were not around in the golden days of material (physical) share certificates may not be attuned to such ‘slow’ investments. We now live in the age of digitalised assets such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens. Some young folks even trade on foreign exchange, betting for example against the euro for the US dollar. These kinds of ventures are very risky and many have lost everything they have on them.

There was a recent revelation from a Nigerian comedian who lost a whopping $3.7 million (N6 billion) to so-called FX trading. The trouble with FX trading is that there are big hitters who trade using highly sophisticated robots and computers which are so fast that traders in a country like ours could never measure up. And indeed, many of these newfangled ‘investment’ types are no different from simple gambling, or worse. No wonder that at this point, sports betting has become an epidemic in Nigeria and other African countries, pulling in over N500 billion daily, according to reports – drawing in volumes that will make a decent stock exchange green with envy.

OPTIONS FOR NIGERIA

What are the options open to Nigeria as well as other fledgling exchanges?

HOME BIAS: It is evident that the stronger exchanges around the world are the ones that emphasise their own home advantage and have been able to create activity and demand for stocks listed on them, from within. USA, India, the Middle East exchanges (where their currency is pegged to the US dollar), and a few more, are examples. Therefore, the more we deepen the involvement of our own people in our exchange and create more confidence amongst our people in the local economy, the more successful those exchanges will be. For now, there is way too much unfounded pessimism, especially among our financial sector players than is good for that sector.

INNOVATION: The bond market was relatively boring pre-Paul Volcker years. A few young chaps in Morgan Stanley investment banking unit in the late 1990s revolutionised what used to be seen as a mere fixed income investment good only for pensioners, by creating innovative instruments that were more tradeable. I believe the equities market now needs to pull all the stops and ensure that every trick in the book being used by some of these other markets which are currently trending, is adopted and modified to fit. There’s a saying I find myself using quite often lately and it goes that ‘any entity whose rate of learning is less than or equal to the rate of change in its environment is fast becoming a dinosaur’. Extinct. Are we learning fast enough? In spite of the general slowness of equities investing around the world, it has become easier for young Africans to invest in foreign stock exchanges than in the one next door to them.

BACK TO BASICS: The fundamental essence of the capital market is to raise longer-term capital from the public, for companies to expand and stabilise. The stock market is there fundamentally to guarantee a secondary market for original owners of shares in companies to sell part or whole of their holdings when they desire, and for any other players to be able to buy off them in a dynamic process that brings interest and excitement to the market. Beyond the technical analysis of a share’s trajectory therefore, investment in the stock of a company is an investment in the fundamentals. It is about how good potential investors – big or small – find the company’s prospects and how viable and competitive its products and services are. It is also a call on the quality of management. These considerations are sacrosanct. Stakeholders in the capital market should bring back attention to these issues and ensure that investments are rooted in the fundamentals. We must continue to remind ourselves of the raison d’etre – investing local money in local industries to impact the general economy.

PSYCHOLOGY: The dematerialization of share certificates has brought many advantages viz to digitalize as much as possible, and to bring much-needed transparency. With digitalisation comes better tracking and less strandedness of investors’ holdings and dividends. However, dematerialisation also creates a psychological effect, whereby holding the shares of companies is no longer popular among less savvy investors. In the past, stocks were purchased by parents as gifts for their children… and held forever. The well-designed certificates had a tantalizing and emotional effect on holders. Now, that is gone, and with it, the ‘bottom’ of many markets – meaning that whatever is poured in simply fritters away as savvy investors constantly take profit. Is there a chance that some serious psychological research is conducted on this matter, to see what innovations can be brought in so that the now rather ‘lifeless’ idea of depending fully on online platforms and computers is somehow rejigged for something a little more exciting? In Nigeria, the traditional long-term equity holders are dying out. Who do we replace them with?

I may not have the right ideas, but my conclusion is that we do have a serious problem on our hands that requires us to brainstorm over the ways forward. It is also certain that the strength and prospects of underlying currencies are a consideration for the vibrancy of a stock exchange, but countries that have done a good job with building local resilience, domestic investment (keeping the money and the focus within the company) seem to be doing a lot better and are likely to maintain their stock markets – and by extension investments in their local industries – into the future. The US is one country where the financial markets are central to overall performance. The country will do everything to protect its financial markets. How far are other major countries ready to go? There are definitely lessons for Nigeria.