OTHERS' VIEWS

OTHERS' VIEWS

Dr Tunji Alausa, minister of education, made a frightening disclosure on Monday that, predictably, attracted little attention: Nigeria has a shortage of 600,000 medical doctors. Kindly read that again, this time slowly. Our attention is devoted to the 2027 presidential election, so we can be excused for missing the unhealthy piece of news. Nigerians were created for elections and politics. Nothing excites us more. Politics could be a good thing if it leads us to the road of redemption. After all, the real purpose of politics is the greater good of the society. Socrates, according to Plato in Gorgias, said the goal of politics is to make the citizens “as good as possible to live the best lives”. How I wish!

Politics and elections aside, we have an emergency in our hands but it seems we are going about our normal business. By any means, a shortage of 600,000 doctors is massive. We have the capacity to train only 10,000 doctors a year and that means it will take us the next 60 years to fill the gap. Wait. By then — that is, 2085 — our population will have exploded from the current 200 million to 741 million (according to PopulationPyramid.net). That means the doctor deficit will be in millions by the time we hope to have closed the gap, so training 10,000 doctors yearly for the next 60 years will still not solve the problem. Pardon me but there is no elegant way of saying this: we are in a hot mess.

We can use some emergency measures. Things are getting worse, what with the economic situation forcing thousands of doctors — who feel overworked and underpaid — to exit the country in search of fresh pasture. We thus have two significant problems: inadequate training capacity and exodus, known as “brain drain” in the 1980s (when many doctors migrated to Saudi Arabia) and now rebranded as “japa”. We are bleeding. The shortage is inflicting fatigue and frustration on the doctors who choose to remain in Nigeria, and the implications will continue to show in the quality of patient care. A doctor cannot be attending to a hundred patients per day and still be optimally productive.

In reality, there will be lethargy and apathy as the day progresses, and there could be loss of empathy as well. Misdiagnosis is not to be unexpected, and this may have nothing to do with the other obvious challenges, such as working conditions, inadequate facilities, obsolete equipment and unstable power supply. Many doctors also suffer depression not just from the workload but seeing avoidable deaths every day. Some things that modern technology has simplified are still being done manually. Some illnesses that could have been nipped in the bud at primary health care level have developed into chronic diseases, leading to a flood of patients at secondary and tertiary hospitals.

 

A visit to many public hospitals will break your heart. A country that values productivity will place, and pay, a premium on having a healthy population. Does this really bother us? In Nigeria, once you are rich enough to start checking your cholesterol levels, you no longer use public hospitals. You go to private hospitals that charge like five-star hotels or travel abroad for your medicals. It is the ordinary people — the tomato seller, the shoemaker, the truck pusher — that suffer the consequences of the inhospitable health care system. This is to say nothing about their inability to afford basic drugs, forcing many to resort to using some unproven but cheaper local alternatives.

I always ask myself: how and when are we going to get out of this mess? We can lament all we want, but lamentation cannot be a strategy. Doctor shortage is not limited to Nigeria. It is a global issue. When purpose-driven countries face this kind of crisis, they come up with a strategy to get out of jail. Some develop short-term to medium-term plans by recruiting foreign doctors from less buoyant countries. That is why Saudi Arabia and the UK have been coming for our doctors. But they are not stupid: they simultaneously pursue a long-term plan to train their own doctors. As they become more and more self-sufficient, they can start reducing the influx of foreign doctors into their system.

What are the plans for the short, medium and long terms to address this pathetic situation in Nigeria? Are we actively trying to improve the working conditions for our doctors? Are we actively encouraging students to study medicine? Are we improving training facilities? In 2015, my niece applied to study medicine at the Kaduna State University. She met all the requirements bar one: state of origin. She was told the programme was for Kaduna indigenes. Although her dad is from Ondo state, she was born in Kaduna and had lived there all her life. By the time she applied for admission, she had only been out of Kaduna thrice, all short trips. But her name meant she was not qualified.

 

Thereafter, my niece made several efforts to study medicine at other universities but had to settle for biochemistry because time was passing by. Her case is typical. The point I am making here is not about discrimination on the basis of state of origin. Rather, I am trying to point out the fact that we have thousands of students who want to study medicine but there are no spaces to accommodate them. We have universities bragging all over town that they had 2,000 applications for medicine but took only 200. This is a country that urgently needs more doctors! We would have to ask why it should be treated as a badge of honour that students who want to study medicine are being blocked.

I am happy that the minister of education is highlighting this issue. The minister of health, Prof Muhammad Pate, has also expressed worries over the exodus of doctors abroad. However, a crisis of this nature requires extraordinary measures. For a start, are we expanding training capability and capacity? Our first line of action until recently was to curtail the number of medical school intakes. The ceiling used to be 5,000 per year. We, thankfully, increased it to 10,000, but it is glaring that it is a drop in the ocean. I am not saying we should over-admit students or lower the standard. Medical training is delicate and we can’t turn our schools to Dugbe market. But we need to scale things up.

However, I am honestly at a loss as to what to do with doctors who “japa” after the country has spent so much money training them. It is a very complicated matter: we cannot restrict freedom of movement but how do get returns from our highly subsidised medical education? Some people have suggested a form of bond that will make the doctors who trained at public schools to work for the government for a number of years. This may make sense for the government in trying to get value for money but it may enrage the doctors, who would rather want to practise in places where they will get the kind of compensation they think they deserve. Well, there must be a solution somewhere.

We need to think, think and think. It is not only about how to address the health sector challenges. We generally have a severe thinking deficiency in policymaking. It always shows up in the way we approach issues. Recently, I commented on the Lagos state house of assembly’s resolution calling for the enforcement of the tenancy law to contain astronomical increases in rent. Housing crisis is usually caused by a supply problem in mega cites. In some other climes, government will come up with incentives — such as tax waivers and accelerated approval processes — to encourage private developers. Government will embark on affordable mass housing projects to reduce the deficit.

 

In my dearly beloved Nigeria, it is law enforcement that will address housing shortages! Just unleash government agencies on landlords and rent will start falling! This faulty reasoning is endemic in the lawmaking and policymaking spheres. I am forced to wonder at times if we actually think before we manufacture certain laws and reel out some policies. I am sincerely interested in the thinking process that leads to the drafting of some laws and policies. We behave as if we can just decree some things into being. I would implore our leaders to always take the chill pill, take a deep breath, think logically and consult widely before pouring a torrential rain of policies on us. We need to have some insight.

In a recent article, ‘If the Foundations of Logic Be Destroyed’ (April 20, 2025), I raised the issue of logical reasoning in our policymaking. I think many policies fail at the problem definition level. If the problem is not well defined and analysed, we will come up with solutions that are superficial. If the medical schools are overloaded, we tend to define the problem as that of having “too many applicants”, so we limit the number of intakes. We do not see the big picture. If rents are high, we think it is the landlords that are to blame, so we make laws to put them in their place (and it never works). If a road is prone to vehicle accidents, we always put the blame on the “reckless” drivers.

I recently came across excerpts of a book, ‘Sequential Analysis’, written in 1972 by the late Robert Holland, a respected figure at McKinsey & Company known for developing a practical framework for tackling complex decision-making. He recommended five sequential questions: (1) Is there (or is there likely) to be a problem (or opportunity)? (2) Where does it lie? (3) Why does it exist? (4) What could we do about it? (5) What should we do about it? (Note the “could” and “should”.) They are applicable to public policies as well. Questions 1 and 2 help define the problem we are trying to solve. Question 3 allows us to structure our thinking. Questions 4 and 5 help us to find a solution.

My sense is that many Nigerian policymakers and lawmakers start from either No 4 or No 5: what could/should we do about it? They define a problem by the “solutions” they already have in their heads. They take the short-cuts by avoiding rigorous thinking. This lack of sequential thinking often gives birth to policies that worsen rather than solve the problems they are intended to address. Until something changes in the way we attend to many national issues — such as doctor shortages, housing crisis, communal conflicts, herder/farmer clashes, and even environmental sanitation — we will keep making laws and policies that will end up having little or no impact on the society.

 

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

MELE MESS

Mr Bayo Ojulari, the new group CEO of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd, is carrying out what looks like an extensive surgery on the leadership of the national oil company. To do an audit, he has fired the MDs of the three refineries. Mr Mele Kyari, the former GCEO, led an overhaul of the refineries running into billions of dollars, but it seems the reality on the ground is far from the claims that they have been working well and churning out products without fail. Industry experts are not surprised: “turn around” contracts have been the “oil block” of many NNPC bosses and petroleum ministers for decades. That is why we have refused to sell the refineries. Nigeria!

 

THE CBEX TRAP

Have you ever wondered why some people get burnt in tanker explosions while scooping petrol but that does not stop others from going for their own share? Despite all the hullaballoo over the CBEX catastrophe in which over 600,000 Nigerians lost an estimated N1.2 trillion, credible reports show that the crypto trading platform is still attracting new “investors” and taking money from the old ones. They are asking people to pay a certain fee in order to regain access to their accounts and get refunded a percentage of their “investments” in June. I can understand why old timers are vulnerable — they are still hopeful of recouping their funds — but what about their new victims? Delusion.

 

HEARTLESS MINISTRY?

Something is going on that should automatically trigger police investigation, but I assume they are yet to pick it up. A popular online prayer group known as Abba’s Heart Ministry suddenly went underground and there are now reports that many members might be held at a location without the knowledge or consent of their families and friends. The story is not yet clear, but the things I have read so far point to the possibility that this might be one of those religious cults that brainwash members into selling their possessions and handing them over to their leaders. We may have a real problem and I hope police are keeping a close tab before we start hearing of mass suicide. Wackos.

 

NO COMMENT

Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom state — who is also referred to as pastor — has been speaking in tongues all because he wants to defect from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). “What Akwa Ibom people want is good governance, not the name of the party,” he said. “Whether Ibom Air or Air Peace, board the flight that is ready to take you to your destination. Board the flight and forget the name of the airline.” He doubled down days later, saying: “I see party as a vehicle to get to power. When you get there, please begin to govern everyone.” All manner of philosophy and poetry simply because of an impending defection. Just do it! Hahahaha.

I see how my unwavering support for your cry for justice has sent your adversaries into a frenzy—resorting to desperate, laughable falsehoods.

Rest assured, Dr. Abiola Akiyode-Afolabi, the distinguished women of FIDA, and I will continue to stand with you wholeheartedly. Our commitment to justice is unshaken, and we will not relent until justice is served.

We simply despise injustice and the abuse of power. Period.

No sensible and decent person who knows my incorruptible track record is deceived by the ridiculous fabrications being peddled by your traducers.

They know—without a doubt—that no amount of money, not even all the wealth in every central bank in the world, can buy my convictions, voice, and stance on any matter I choose to support.

So, worry not, Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan.

You will continue to have my unwavering, sacrificial support in your resolute fight against a brigade of irresponsible politicians, led by the Senate President, Godswill Obot Akpabio.

The world sees how they have captured our public institutions for their selfish benefit—corruptly abusing their positions to silence, intimidate, and endanger you. But they will fail.

Do not be discouraged by this latest onslaught.

We will continue to stand with you—demanding a fair hearing and an independent investigation into your petition against Senator Akpabio for sexual harassment.

The Senate President cannot dodge the inevitable forever.

To my fellow honorable citizens, we all know that sacrifice is foreign to most of Nigeria’s so-called political “leaders” (or should I say ruiners?). They cannot fathom the concept of service because money and their belly are their gods.

In contrast to their corruption and greed, I—like many of you—will continue, eternally, to live a purpose-driven life of sacrifice in the unrelenting fight for a decent and just Nigeria, where leaders are held accountable for good governance.

Every decent, reasonable Nigerian knows that my unshakable values, convictions, voice, and stance on public interest issues cannot be tarnished—no matter how hard they try.

Ignore their lies. Dismiss, with contempt, their desperate theatrics—a feeble attempt to divert attention from the sexual harassment petition against Senate President Akpabio by the distinguished Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan. Demand justice for her, because “injustice to one is injustice to all.”

Madam Senator, as you so powerfully declared:

“This injustice shall not be sustained.”

We—along with every truly honorable and reasonable Nigerian—stand with you. Unwavering. Freely. All the way.

So, fight on until justice is served!

 

Today is yet another World Press Freedom Day 2025. The organic theme for this year is ‘Time to put AI on the social agenda’. On this World Press Freedom Day 2025, the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), the global voice for journalists, is calling for Artificial Intelligence (AI) to be at the top of the agenda in the social dialogue between journalists’ unions and media. Meanwhile, in line with UNESCO’s theme for this year, ‘Reporting in the Brave New World – The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Press Freedom’, the IFJ urges journalists, unions, and media organisations to engage in collective action to ensure that AI serves the ethical creation of news, protects press freedom, and sustains jobs.

In its recommendations on the use of Artificial Intelligence adopted in June 2024, the IFJ highlighted that “AI cannot replace human journalists, and its output must not be considered ‘journalism’, save where it has been subject to appropriate human oversight and checking.”

Fact-checking and critical thinking are at the core of journalism: AI cannot do them independently. The IFJ warns in particular against bias, stereotypes and factual errors that can contribute to misleading audiences. The federation points that journalists are essential for these tasks. The rise of AI-fuelled online disinformation is another threat, requiring a response in the form of journalists’ scrutiny. Deep fakes are particularly challenging, reminds the IFJ. “Deep fakes are a direct attack on democracy and on people’s fundamental right to reliable and independent information,” says Anthony Bellanger, IFJ General Secretary. “Journalists are on the front lines of this drift, and their verification work is becoming increasingly important although complex.”

The IFJ is urging trade unions and media to address the issue of Artificial Intelligence, as part of their social dialogue. AI is reshaping newsrooms, automating routine tasks, assisting with data analysis, and even generating content. And here is the thing, this technology has the potential to improve efficiency and save journalists from doing mundane tasks such as data collection. But the IFJ is concerned that little has been done in the social dialogue to ensure the ethical use of AI in newsrooms, e.g. directly addressing clauses on transparency.

The Federation is particularly concerned that AI could ultimately replace editorial decisions, which are currently made by professional staff in newsrooms.

Besides, the Federation has specific concerns about the use of journalistic works to feed AI. This often automatic process can lead to journalists not being compensated for their articles, unless a specific agreement has already been made with the relevant media organisations. As we are just learning the ropes in this country, licensing agreements between news organisations and AI companies should ensure that journalists are fairly compensated for their contributions and allow journalists to opt out if they refuse their works being used in this way. There have been reports that professional bodies have initiated discussion points on this business dynamics of journalism.

This is quite important as we reflect on the themes this year: Unions and media should also ensure that journalists, including freelancers, receive proper AI literacy training. They should also help journalists make this work transition. That is the only way empowerment and compensation can accrue to practitioners in this age of the giants and disrupters.

“It is high time for everyone in the sector to jointly reflect on how journalism can adapt to the evolving landscape of AI, while safeguarding its ethical standards and the core values of press freedom,” says Bellanger. “The future of journalism is one where human oversight, transparency and accountability remain at the centre of AI usage. We must ensure that technology serves to enhance the work of journalists, not undermine it.”

The IFJ calls on all stakeholders – journalists, unions, media organisations and policymakers – to work collaboratively in developing AI guidelines that prioritise the rights and wellbeing of journalists. This goal should include setting clear boundaries for AI’s role in newsrooms, fostering transparency in AI processes, ensuring that journalists get compensated and can opt out of their work being used by AI, and protecting editorial independence. The Federation also highlights the importance of collective bargaining, to guarantee that journalists’ voices are heard as these technologies become more integrated into the media landscape.

Before we drew attention to concerns about threat to press freedom at home, it is fitting to note that leaders in global context don’t always walk their talk on freedom of the press. None of tem as I noted before, likes robust journalism. That is what Ms Marina Walker Guevara, Executive Editor Pulitzer Centre noted yesterday in her reflection on this year’s WPFD: Her words:

“Even for a president who insults journalists routinely over normal coverage of his administration, the latest tirade by Argentine President Javier Milei was shocking in its menace. It comes at a moment when officials from Washington to New Delhi are also inciting hatred of the free press. I am from Argentina, and I am a citizen of the United States. For the first time in 22 years living in the U.S., press freedom is under siege in both places I call home. In my book, this was not supposed to happen in the U.S., the country of the First Amendment, the Freedom of Information Act, Watergate, and the Pentagon Papers. Yet here we are, witnessing the Associated Press semi-banned from the White House; corporate media settling frivolous lawsuits by President Trump to protect their other businesses; storied journalists exiting storied programs such as 60 Minutes over a loss of editorial independence.  
It’s tempting to feel we have little to celebrate on World Press Freedom Day. Still, as challenges rise, the Pulitzer Center’s partner journalists and outlets are doubling down on rigor, independence, and creativity. The more they are threatened, the busier they get. Their stories spark dialogue and change, and they make powerful people uncomfortable.  Recently, OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, subtly discouraged his followers from reading Karen Hao’s much-anticipated book on Open AI, Empire of AI. Hao, who has pioneered the field of investigations on AI’s impacts, is the lead designer of the Pulitzer Center’s AI Spotlight Series, a state-of-the-art training program that supports journalists reporting on AI systems, companies, and economics.. . 

Reporting by another Pulitzer Center partner, Sofia Schurig of Brazil’s Núcleo, recently prompted Brazil’s consumer protection officials to request an inquiry into Meta, the social media giant that owns Instagram and Facebook. Schurig and her colleagues found 14 Instagram accounts featuring child sexual exploitation content generated by artificial intelligence; after the journalists contacted the company, Meta removed the accounts. Our mission at the Pulitzer Center is to make stories like these possible, and to develop compelling ways to connect audiences with journalism through art, education, civic dialogue, and more. 

We are convinced that amid our democracies’ struggles—and in spite of them—independent journalists will do their most consequential work”. 
Even as we are concerned about the AI bogey, we are nursing fresh concerns about press freedom in Nigeria, which easily the most significant civil society organisation, at the moment, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) and the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) are addressing today through a colloquium and a press conference. Journalists and civil society activists and leaders have been invited to grace at Radisson Hotel, GRA, Ikeja, Lagos. The gathering will be on the main concern: “Unchecked Injustice: How Authorities Are Weaponising the Cybercrime Act to Stifle Peaceful Dissent and Media Freedom in Nigeria.”  According to SERAP and the Guild of Editors, the jointly event will bring together media executives, civil society organisations, human rights activists and other stakeholders. 

The Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) as a professional group of editors and media executives is to promote and defend the rights and interests of editors in Nigeria. The Guild’s mission is to foster excellence in editing and journalism, and to promote a free and independent press. Its objectives include, promoting and defending the rights and interests of editors in Nigeria.

SERAP is a non-profit, nonpartisan, legal and advocacy organisation devoted to promoting transparency, accountability and respect for socio-economic rights in Nigeria. SERAP received the Wole Soyinka Anti-Corruption Defender Award in 2014, and was nominated for the UN Civil Society Award and Ford Foundation’s Jubilee Transparency Award. SERAP was also nominated for the 2024 Columbia Global Freedom of Expression Prizes. SERAP is a member of the UNCAC Coalition, a global anti-corruption network of over 350 civil society organizations (CSOs) in over 100 countries, which is committed to promoting the ratification, implementation and monitoring of the UN Convention against Corruption.

The press conference will focus on assessing the state of human rights and press freedom in Nigeria focusing on the curious weaponisation of the Cybercrime Act to stifle peaceful dissent and media freedom both offline and online, while making recommendations to the Nigerian authorities to address and end the growing crackdown on human rights, media freedom and civic space in the country. In the middle of December 2024, the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) was resourceful and conflict sensitive, in this regard as it inaugurated a five-man committee to examine and review various anti-media laws in the nation’s statutes. This development came after the Guild expressed concern about the negative impact of the “plethora of obnoxious and anti-media laws” on practitioners and the country. 

According to the Editors’ Guild, the committee is on a peace mission and so would work with the office of Minister of Information and National Orientation, the National Assembly, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, and other stakeholders to amend the laws or repeal them outright.

The committee members include a pro-media rights activist and NGE member, Richard Akinnola; a lawyer/former Editor of Punch Newspaper, Gbemiga Ogunleye; former Editor-in-Chief/Managing Director of The Guardian, Martins Oloja; Deputy Editor-in-Chief/Chairman of the Editorial Board of Daily Trust, Idris Hamza, and the General Secretary of the NGE, Dr. Iyobosa Uwugiaren.

The Guild’s executive council noted that that its decision to set up the strategic committee was informed by the “chilling effects” of the legislations on the nation’s democracy and press freedom. Today’s colloquium and press conference is a reinforcement of that decision to use a stakeholder consultation to defuse tension between the state and the media.

In a December 2023 interaction with the Newspapers Proprietors Association of Nigeria (NPAN) officials, President Bola Tinubu declared that his administration would always respect media freedoms and divergent views. But there are bills at the federal legislature, which seek to give more teeth to the existing laws that the law enforcement agencies have been exploiting to arrest and detain journalists. This is a day to show some concerns about whether the # Project 2027 hitmen would indeed guarantee press freedom after free speeches and robust and public interest disclosures. That is why on this World Press Freedom Day, we appeal to citizens and all lovers of freedom to support “fearless journalism and protect the right to speak the truth.”

 

Nigerian politicians fascinate me with their sheer inventiveness. Don’t write off any politician who still has breath in him. His dying embers can still trigger a conflagration. It was in that context that I decided to take another look at the recent threats by some politicians of Northern extraction to block President Tinubu from having a second term in 2027.

On May 29, 2025, the Tinubu administration will be two years old – just two years, and some people are already bewailing the turn-by-turn tradition in our unwritten constitution which makes us rotate the presidency between the North and the South. Tinubu’s Northern predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, was president for eight years.

 

The reason some of us can’t join Nigeria’s political jujitsu is because it is a very deadly sport with indeterminate rules. As soon as one begins to celebrate our seeming cohesiveness and encouraging handshakes across the four cardinal points of the River Niger, gbam! A massive shock jolts you back to reality reminding you that our middle name is atavism.

North As Kingmaker

“Tinubu could not have been president without the support of the North”, said Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, until recently the special adviser on political affairs to the president in the Office of the Vice President, who has now resumed his role as the voice of the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF). He argues that President Tinubu should not seek a second term, apparently because he thinks that Tinubu’s performance in the first two years has been sub-par.

Baba-Ahmed’s missionary journey round the major media outlets was closely followed by a release by the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) declaring that the North will only support candidates in the 2027 general elections who are committed to protecting and promoting the region’s interests.
“Northern Nigeria will remain faithful not to particular politicians or political parties but to those who care about our regional interests and are willing to promote and protect them”, said the chairman of the forum’s Board of Trustees (BoT) who is also a former Minister of Power and Steel, Alhaji Bashir Dalhatu. Predictably, Baba-Ahmed is also a member of the ACF.

 

Flexing his region’s political muscles. Dalhatu declared, “The North has 19 out of the 36 states, and we also have the FCT as a veritable component. We have a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives, the National Economic Council, and the Council of State. The North occupies close to 75 percent of Nigeria’s land area and about 60 percent of the population.
He went on to issue what many people in the southern parts have since described as an open threat: “In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands. If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support.”

Arrogance

Nothing activates the bubbly Nigerian passion like football and politics. The verdict of many commentators of southern origin was that from the outbursts of both the Northern Elders’ Forum and the Arewa Consultative Forum, the ‘North’ has not yet purged itself of what southern leaders regard as its traditional arrogance. They wonder if Tinubu’s predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, could have been president without the votes of the South, particularly the Southwest.

No part of Nigeria has an overwhelming majority over the others, meaning that in the same vein, no Northerner can become president without southern votes. So, why divide the people based on the region of origin instead of addressing pertinent socio-political issues such as the economy, spate of insecurity, political restructuring etc.

“Enìkan kì í jé àwádé”, is a popular Yoruba proverb, which could be translated as, “One individual can’t announce his presence by saying, ‘We have come’. I doubt if Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed and his co-travellers have ever heard this.

We all know how diverse Northern Nigeria is. We know, too, the various forces at play in that part of Nigeria. While we continue to pray that God intervenes in the mayhem going on between adherents of different religions and ethnic nationalities in addition to the sheer criminality raging there, it is too presumptuous of any individual, no matter how many times he has enjoyed government appointments, to claim to speak for the entire North.

Agreeing with the above point, the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, has declared that the NEF does not speak for the entire North, describing the body as a political burden to the region.
Toeing Matawale’s line, another body, the Progressive Northern Elements, in a statement signed by its Chairman, Alhaji Ibrahim Mohammed Modibbo, said it was too early for the Northern Elders Forum to start finding faults in a President they supported to win an election.

“The Northern Elders Forum should know that an average northerner is wiser now and can’t be cajoled to fight any southerner in power as President. Our position is clear, we believe in any government or leader that will make the North and every other region better. Nothing less.”

Lamido’s Crystal Ball

If anyone can plot how to unseat a political personage, given the dancing chess board that Nigerian politics has become, that person would be Alhaji Sule Lamido, former Governor of Jigawa State and founding member of the PDP. If wishes were horses, Lamido would want his party, PDP, to be in power; but being a realist he warns that the task of unseating Tinubu is not for opportunist rabble-rousers.
In Lamido’s view, “It is going to be difficult with Tinubu, with his hold on the country, on the economy, and his audacity to say this is where I stand …. Tinubu is very daring; he is his own creation. He is a self-made man, right from Chicago, what he went through on the streets. Look at how he was able to fight the Alliance for Democracy and Afenifere and then Obasanjo.”

The former governor added: “At the APC convention, Buhari was against him but he defeated Buhari. What are you talking about? Don’t underestimate a man like that… There is no Nigerian like Tinubu who has been there on his own. Every established political arrangement, every institution, he demolished them. Now that he is in charge, he is not going to be easy to deal with.”

Many enlightened people wish that the meetings of the Northern Elders’ Forum and the Arewa Consultative Forum were actually meant to address the almajiri problem in the North, youth unemployment, re-calibration of parasitic local government structures, the national economy, illegal mining, insecurity in the North and other problems militating against the people.
I bet you, many of the itinerant campaigners are just one appointment away from disembarking from the protest train and retreating quietly to savour the perks of their new office. It will do them no harm to take Lamido’s advice.

Peter Obi/El-Rufai Ticket

On the flip side of the coin, the former governor also warned President Tinubu not to push people to the wall:

“You see, the domestic cat fed on small chickens, but one day, the mother of the chickens stood up to the cat. Tinubu is that cat.”

The word in town is that the Mother Hen has arranged a Peter Obi/El-Rufai presidential ticket to ‘de-cat’ Tinubu in 2027. There are interesting days ahead!

The question is, do the desperate politicians threatening to turn day to night have the discipline, resources, moral suasion, vision, and virtual death-wish to live up to their grandiloquence?

IS there morality in politics? Or, should there be morality in politics? Governors of Akwa-Ibom and Delta States, Umo Eno, Sheriff Oborevwori and ex-governor of Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa, are of the opinion that there isn’t. Or, there shouldn’t be. They made this known last week in epistles that should be fittingly entitled, “An ode to betrayal and betrayers”. Like blabbering kid thieves caught stealing from a pot of soup, Eno and Okowa waffled pitifully, in a manner that beggars belief, on why they abandoned/abandoning the PDP, a faithful political kin, which threw them up from obscurity to prominence and redoubtable wealth.

Umo Eno Oborevwori and Okowa’s

 
 

When the discourse is about betrayal and betrayers, my people walk a profound path. They recourse to an allegory which carves an imperishable place of pride for a faithful animal, the pigeon, Ẹyẹlé. With this, they paint the distastefulness and horrid colour of betrayal. In the ode to this evergreen bird, they hold aloft her fidelity to an unwritten bond of friendship. So, my people say, the Ẹyẹlé, which daily eats and drinks from the House Owner in time of plenty, will not break that bond even when the House Owner faces life’s existential travails. Unlike the Ẹyẹlé, Eno, Oborevwori and Okowa would seem to have chosen political harlotry for which Nigerian politics/politicians are known and are so audacious enough to flaunt it in the people’s face.  

Political Iscariotism has become a punishing phenomenon in Nigerian politics. On a national television last week, former PDP presidential running mate, Okowa sought all manner of ways to legitimize why a pigeon should abandon the House Owner in his autumn, hi moment of decline. Asked what he found in the pot of soup that made him cup his hand suggestively, Okowa said the move was in the best interest of Delta State.

In the same way, Pastor Umo Eno, governor of a state whose successive governments have repeatedly mouthed their wedge to PDP as “the state’s religion”, found ideology as the 30 shekels to collect for betraying the PDP and his people. He found a troubling anecdote to tell about a traveler and two airlines for a reinforcement of his blabbering thesis. At a Town Hall meeting held for the Ukanafun Federal Constituency last Tuesday, speaking in Ibiobio, Eno put his duplicity in perspective. He then came across as seeing politics as indistinguishable from prostitution. Apparently seeing the need to reify his betrayal, Eno thereafter appeared on a radio programme where he attempted to demonize ideology in Nigerian politics.

The bible, which Eno reads, is very profound in telling the story of betrayers and betrayal. Bible scholars say in that holy book have 50 verses about betrayal. It runs from the story of the patron-saint of betrayal, Judas Iscariot, Delilah and the Philistines, David’s betrayal of Saul, the Absalom story and repeated pronouncements like “Brother will betray brother to death, and a father his child, and children will rise up against parents…” If the bible were to be re-written today, with Eno’s betrayal in mind, his unkind cut of betrayal of a party that brought him from obscurity to limelight would make the 51st story of betrayal.

Whether in literature, politics or everyday life, betrayal provides no variation. But politicians, trying to be clever by half, say that in politics, unlike literature or our everyday relations, betrayal isn’t an anomaly but the water with which they bathe. To escape from the damnation awaiting betrayals, they make a distinction between betrayal and what is called “political compromise.”

However, while political Iscariotism of the kind of Umo, Oborevwori and Okowa is selfish, self-serving and greed-propelled, the ones of pre-independence Nigeria were ideological. The second case of decamping happened in 1951 between Nnamdi Azikiwe’s NCNC and the AG.

Another very epochal case of decamping happened during the First Republic when Chief Ladoke Akintola, and his rump of party faithful moved over to form the United Progressive Party, (UPP) which later formed an alliance with the NCNC to become the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the short-lived Second Republic of 1979 to 1983, a gale of political defections also occurred. The most epochal of them was the shifting of alliance from the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN)to the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) by Ondo State Deputy Governor, Chief Akin Omobioriowo with allies like Olaiya Fagbamigbe. The other was that of Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, governor of Kano State. Rimi fell out with his political mentor, Mallam Aminu Kano in May 1983 and decamped from the PRP, under whose banner he became governor, to the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) to contest the 1983 elections. As an underscore of the political morality obtainable at this time, Rimi resigned his position as Kano State governor since he was leaving the party under whose banner he vied for the governorship ticket and was subsequently replaced by his deputy, Abdu Dawakin Tofa.

 

But, progressively, the colour of virtuous politicking in Nigeria waned, leading to shameless harlotry as a political credo. Okowa, Oberevwori and Eno’s epistles on leaving their political parties were hollow, feckless and irritating. Even among sex workers who change partners at the dictate of their thirst for cash, there is honour.

Yes, today, the PDP, like the anecdote of Ẹyẹlé and the House Owner, is facing its most harrowing political time ever, due to mismanagement, greed and power recklessness. Like mortal man who never learns, the APC is embroiled in same hubris, relishing its own self-proclaimed power immortality. Virtually all the PDP Ẹyẹlé, who supped and dined with it at a time of plenty, have abandoned the House. One of them, a tempestuous and vile character, was even made the Sheriff of Abuja as his own 30 shekels of Silver payoff, in exchange for agreeing to be the undertaker and pallbearer of the party.

The dearth of ideology in Nigerian politics is reputed to be the culprit of the political vagrancy that is worn shamelessly by politicians on their lapels. As divorcees consistently blame individual spouses for their marital fatality, Eno and Okowa hold ideology responsible for their harlotry. However, central to the existence of political parties is the place of political ideology. 

You may disparage PDP as I do; you may not even be able to stand the cantankerous Labour Party as I cannot. The truth, however, is that, if Nigerian opposition parties do not get their acts together, we may be doomed to stagnation. We then will have more Enos, Oborevworis and Okowas whose politics is indistinguishable from prostituting, who invariable give the APC and its Leviathan opportunity to fertilize the ground for the building of a cult of personality. It is the first step towards a totalitarian state.

For our every-last-Saturday-of-the-month “Diaspora Dialogues” podcast on April 26 on the topic “Kyari Out, Ojulari In: Politics and Corruption in NNPC,” my colleagues—Dr. Osmund Agbo in Houston, Texas, and Professor Moses Ochonu in Nashville, Tennessee—and I invited revered oil industry expert Mr. Dan Kunle as our guest.

He helped us (and the thousands of people who watched our show) to navigate the complex contours of the politics, operational uniqueness, financial indiscretions, and enduring transparency deficit of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).

But during the show, we noticed an unusually disproportionate, seemingly synchronized, and obviously induced volume of comments both in Zoom and on my Facebook page (where the podcast was livestreamed) extolling Kyari’s virtues, hyping his putative managerial acumen, and celebrating his supposedly magisterial strategic successes as NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer.

If the well-choreographed cascade of comments merely stopped at the unnaturally cloying veneration of Kyari, we would simply have laughed and said some people were earning their keep. But they went beyond that. They also poured scorn, coarse invective, and toxic rhetorical venom on Mr. Dan Kunle, a calm, conciliatory, compulsively polite, mild-mannered, and even-tempered gentleman’s gentleman.

After the show, I told my colleagues that our promo probably attracted the attention of Mele Kyari (or his minders) who sent hordes of well-oiled social media trolls to invade us and try to influence our show’s tenor and flow with tendentious questions and comments.

They agreed that I might be on to something because since our show began in 2024, we never had an experience quite like what we witnessed on April 26. But it was still at the level of suspicion, well-justified suspicion.

 

My hunch was confirmed when, a day after our show, an evidently paid but intensely malicious and mendacious, not to mention substance-free, “news story” appeared in many major Nigerian newspapers besmirching Dan Kunle’s reputation, misrepresenting what he said during our show, and amplifying the intentionally propagandistic comments that members of the Kyari troll factory left on my Facebook page.

“Mele Kyari: Nigerians Slam Dan Kunle Over Call for Private Takeover of Oil Sector,” reads a headline from the Vanguard.  The headline in the Independent is similar: “Nigerians Berate Analyst Dan Kunle Over Call for Private Takeover of Oil Sector.” Blueprint Newspaper’s headline is a slight variation of the same theme: “Kunle: Nigerians Berate Analyst Over Call for Private Takeover of Oil Sector.”

Several other well-known and not-too-well-known news sites published the story. The content is exactly the same, from the lead to the last paragraph. Only the headlines are modified marginally.

Some news sites, rather scandalously, used their reporters’ bylines for what is clearly native advertising (as we call paid content that mimics the forms, presentation, and frozen stylistic choices of news stories)—malicious, unethical native advertising, I might add.

 

Although I earn a living studying, researching, teaching, and writing about issues like this, I confess that this nadir of journalistic depravity and dark, social-media-enabled mind management is a new frontier even for me.

I am aware that data boyhood, that is, the mobilization of conscienceless, unprincipled, and cash-strapped social media denizens with internet data—and a stipend—to venerate politicians (and other image-conscious public figures) and smear their critics on social media is now a growing, well-oiled industry in Nigeria.

I was, after all, a victim of the paid and pointed projectiles of minions of the Buhari Media Center during Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in office.

But I didn’t know that there is now a symbiotic synchrony between data boys on social media and crafty, if inept, PR experts who deploy the half-cooked bunkum of data boys as raw materials to manufacture sponsored news stories in legitimate news outlets, which the data boys them amplify again on social media in a dance of idiocy sanctified by falsehood.

That is spin doctoring taken to a new level. It is disappointingly unethical perception mercenariness. It’s scorn-worthy narrative illusionism. And the news media that participate in this giant scam, this enterprise of fact twisting and professional gaslighting, should be ashamed of themselves.

How can any professionally competent, self-respecting news editor approve the publication of a piece of sponsored wish-wash by an outside group as “news” and even go so far as to attach a reporter’s byline to that?  That is journalistic self-annihilation. I am certain that this isn’t the first time that has happened.

We disagreed with several things Mr. Kunle said during the show (such as his defense of subsidy removal or even his occasional over-the-top commendation of President Bola Tinubu) but he did provide much-needed education on the issues and possibilities of the oil sector during the show.

He laid bare, with remarkable clarity, impressive empirical fidelity, and granular specifics, the grand deception of revived refineries. Kyari’s people hired a private jet, according to credible media reports, to convey paid-for journalists to the site of the “blending” refinery to tour the so-called rehabilitated refinery in a sophisticated propaganda charade designed to deceive the nation.

Mr. Kunle pointed out that the price of the rehabilitation of refineries went up from $400 million during Goodluck Jonathan’s time to $1.5 billion a couple of years later during Buhari’s time and has now probably climbed to above $2 billion because of run-on costs. This is a national heist of historical proportions.

He made other scandalous revelations, such as the fact that our oil production, despite claims of opening up new fields, has dipped to about 1.6-7 million barrels a day, and that Kyari and his boys were not serious about reforming NNPC or even doing the groundwork necessary for taking NNPC public through an IPO.

But the story that was packaged by Kyari’s boys and fraudulently published as a recap of the show is neither faithful to the issues discussed in the show nor to even the sponsored criticisms of Mr. Kunle by the Kyari data boys on our show.

The headline accuses Kunle of advocating monopoly in the oil and gas sector and of encouraging the sale of refineries to private investors. He articulated no such positions. Clearly, the aim of the story, especially the lead, is to associate Kunle with those two positions, which get Nigerians emotionally worked up and to which the propagandists know Nigerians are opposed.

Sale of national patrimonies like our refineries to private individuals is a legitimate ground for angst. So is the advocacy for anti-competitive practices in the oil and gas industry. Kyari’s spin doctors manufactured those lies against Mr. Kunle in hopes that no one will bother to verify their accuracy—and in the service of destroying the credibility of the well-made case he articulated against Kyari’s profligacy and opacity, which Mr. Kunle was careful to say was not limited to Kyari.

The coordinated smear campaign against Dan Kunle exposes two things: Mele Kyari’s vulnerability to rigorous scrutiny and the frighteningly deteriorated state of journalistic ethics and public discourse in Nigeria. The symbiotic collusion between so-called data boys, spin doctors, and ostensibly respectable media organizations points to an emerging culture of misinformation and perception manipulation that threatens democratic accountability and informed citizen engagement.

When journalism descends into the depths of paid propaganda, the casualty is not just the reputation of individuals unfairly maligned; it is the very heart of democratic society itself. Nigerians must remain vigilant and discerning and refuse to be swayed by the cynical manipulations of those who would substitute truth with lies, substance with sensationalism, and critical debate with orchestrated smear campaigns.

 

THROUGH its ancient mythology, Yoruba had a counterpoise of the western Frankenstein monster. It’s a negatively phenomenal child called Àjàntálá. In folklore and as a cultural signifier, the Àjàntálá was a misbegotten child, a product of his father’s disobedience to the un-science of, though life-shaping, ancient epistemology and practices. Àjàntálá’s hunter father had disobeyed widely held myth that when hunters’ wives were pregnant, they should cease hunting. The belief was that, if they shot a cantankerous game, it may, in anger, displace the foetus inside their wives and become a perilous child. This was the process that birthed Àjàntálá.

In the Amos Tutuola version of Àjàntálá’s story (Àjàntálá, the noxious child: 1986), the baby spent 23 years inside his mother’s womb. A few days before he was born, as his mother walked the bush path, the child began a conversation with her, even cavalierly suggesting its name at birth.

At his naming ceremony, the 8-day-old child disrupted the proceedings, gluttonously consuming every food in sight and causing huge pains to his parents and all his naming ceremony attendees. As he grew, Àjàntálá manifested malevolent streaks, whipping his parents at intervals and beating to stupor a Babalawo, who was engaged to provide spiritual succour to his raving-mad Satanic theatrics. When his mother, tired of his wiles and the social stigma he caused the family, decided to trickily dump him in the forest, Àjàntálá encountered and became a family of the Goat, Ram and Lion and the discord he caused among them was phenomenal.

Two misbegotten children in the bible, Hophni and Phinehas, also manifested streaks that resembled Àjàntálá’s. They were the two sons of the high priest at the sanctuary of Shiloh in Jerusalem called Eli. The Bible described these children as “good-for-nothing” priests because they were not only corrupt and immoral, they brought their revered father huge shame. They did this through their abuse of priestly positions. The two went round wherever there were sacrifices to Yahweh and demanded excessive portions of the sacrifices. They were also renowned for sexual perversion and misconduct which brought dishonour to their father’s priestly office. At the apogee of their irresponsibility, these two Àjàntálás not only, by so doing, ended their lives in a tragic fall but were the ones who brought Elli’s priestly line to its doom.

Perhaps drawing its muse from these three disreputable children, a 1980s Ifá Olókun  Television drama series created a character called Omolokun. Omolokun’s notoriety rivaled Àjàntálá, as well as Hophni and Phineas’. A product of undue haste for childbirth by a barren couple, Omolokun’s parents were eventually handed a child by a deity. This child then acted in every way like Àjàntálá, demanding every impossible thing under the earth, including “Odidi eni”—a human being. His thirst for the imponderables eventually led to his and his parents’ deaths.

My musical idol, Ayinla Omowura, late Yoruba Apala musician, while pillorying his truant first son, Akeem, also dwelled on the theme of Àjàntálá. He warned that an Ajantala child who lives a life of borderless splendour, misbehaviour and societal nuisance would soon lose all when “his mother goes fetching water and his father, to the farm,” a metaphor for an unscheduled forever-trip. Ayinla was soon to be killed after this Nostradamus prophecy.

 

Son of the Nigerian president, Seyi Tinubu, must be a pain to his father and to responsible parenting. In Nigeria’s history, I am not aware of any president’s child who has threatened public peace, public decency and the public space as Seyi. His name has come out in every socially distasteful national issue. You will recollect that this same young man was one who, but for his father’s peremptory scold, would probably have been attending Executive Council meetings with ministers. Seyi has no fog about precis in behaviour, so much that he outperforms himself in irresponsible behaviour. He is reputed to have nominated ministers and behaves in socially anomalous manner that baffles. Perhaps, the children of Muhammadu Buhari, who went watching the Durbar in presidential aircraft and shooting photographs with our national craft; the son of Sani Abacha, who commuted in Nigeria’s presidential aircraft like one taking peremptory trips in a Molue, can outperform Seyi in national irresponsibility. He causes so much stir with his long convoys of glittering automobiles and is chaperoned to occasions by Nigerian security apparatuses.

The latest about him is the allegation by the NANS President that Seyi ordered him tortured, beaten and his nude pictures taken for his voyeuristic pleasure. Though Seyi has denounced this, why would the president’s son always be associated with such shameful actions?  In the APC, the youth wing is literally comatose with Seyi being alleged to have taken over the works of its executive. If President Tinubu is not embarrassed by the activities of his son, parents all over the world are. Seyi acts like a product of irresponsible parenting and upbringing. The Yoruba say if one’s yam farm posts bountiful harvest, a wise man would cover the heaps from prying eyes. Apart from the raw power to browbeat and be kowtowed to, illicit funds and majesty associated with being the president’s son, what does Seyi have up his medulla oblonganta? From the little I hear from him, it is absolutely empty. As Seyi paints Nigeria in crimson as this, its reverberating effects bounce back on his father. Don’t Yoruba say it is the overripe orange that invites throwing of stones at its mother tree?

By the way, on Tuesday, May 6, Ayinla Omowura would be marking the 45th anniversary of his murder in a barroom feud. Famous podcaster and broadcaster, Edmund Obilo, held me to an almost 3-hour interview as I discussed the life and times of this bohemian musician. Please, watch out for the podcast. 

IN a week when the remains of Pa Samuel Ayodele Adebanjo, the indefatigable Afenifere leader, who stood firmly with his commitments to nationhood till he breathed his last was being laid to rest, it is not just befitting, but heartwarming that his compatriots in the push for a new Nigeria, decided to launch yet another effort at recovering the tottering nation. For years, Chief Ayo Adebanjo had remained one of the most standard voices for restructuring, federalism and good governance in Nigeria. He got anointed as the leader of Afenifere at a time when it was quite tricky to lead such a socio-political organisation. In time of politics, opinions are usually divided along interests. It is a different ball game compared to what you had during military rule, when the citizens largely see the military as irritants that the polity must get rid of.

But Pa Adebanjo retained the focus of the Afenifere and its allies including the Southern Middle Belt Forum (SMBF) and the Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) all through his time. He maintained a ubiquitous presence in the media with a message that remained as constant as the Northern Star-Nigeria must be restructured, and it must go the way of true federalism! He was in search of the good life for his people till God called him home and the soundbites that have echoed from the different programmes held in his memory have all attested to the fact that his well-lived life had bequeathed a legacy worth celebrating by his biological children, as well as the myriads of his political offsprings scattered across the land.

Thus, seeing the leader of The Patriots,  former Secretary General of Commonwealth,  Chief Emeka Anyaoku, launch yet another effort aimed at taking Nigeria to a democratic promised land last week was not just commendable, but a firm attestation of one of the evergreen sayings of American theologian, writer, and editor, James Freeman Clarke, who stated: “A politician thinks of the next election; a stateman of the next generation. A politician looks for the success of his party; a statesman for that of his country. The statesman wishes to steer, while the politician is satisfied to drift.”

Chief Anyaoku, as reported by the Nigerian Tribune a week ago is leading The Patriots to convene a national political summit, refusing to allow the nation to drift in their presence. The aim of the summit according to them is to fashion a workable constitution for the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The summit, which is coming under the umbrella of The Patriots in conjunction with the Wale Okunniy-led National Political Summit Group (NPSG) made good its promise when the convening committee was inaugurated by Chief Anyaoku last Thursday. The broad-based committee showcases the unrelenting determination of the revered diplomat, Chief Anyaoku, 92, and his compatriots, many of whom are older than Nigeria as a nation, to help the country away from the path of damnation called feeding-bottle federalism it has toed all these years.

On Thursday, when Chief Anyaoku inaugurated former governors, Chief Gbenga Daniel (Ogun State), Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto State), former Minister of Information, Labaran Maku; publisher, African Newspapers of Nigeria (ANN) Plc, publishers of the Tribune titles, Ambassador (Dr) Tokunbo Awolowo Dosumu, among other eminent Nigerians as convening committee members for the national summit, the stage was set for another experiment at fashioning a new Nigeria, one which, not a few patriotic citizens would pray to see the light of the day. Chief Anyaoku left no one in doubt that the summit planned to hold between May 28 and 29 would get Nigeria a solid proposal that can address the plurality of the Nigerian system better. “The 1999 Constitution, however, amended, cannot serve Nigeria well,” he said, as he called for the country’s return to a truly federal constitution, which he said would be reminiscent of Nigeria’s early independence years (1960-1966), when federalism flourished. According to him, that period gave the country effective governance, regional progress and national cohesion.

“The widespread insecurity, economic underperformance, mass youth unemployment and declining international standing can only be remedied by a constitution that reflects the country’s diversity. Such a document must imbue citizens with a strong sense of belonging and patriotism,” he added.

It is also noteworthy, realizing that all members of the convening committee of the summit are speaking with the same measure of enthusiasm exhibited by Chief Anyaoku. Former governor of Sokoto State, who also served as Speaker of the 7th House of Representatives, Senator Tambuwal, pledged his commitment to the committee’s mission while emphasising the urgency of the assignment at hand, which he said would enhance the country’s future stability. The former governor of Ogun State, Senator Daniel, also spoke in the same vein, when he added that the summit needed to thoroughly re-examine the 1999 Constitution. He said that the nation needed to commit to reforms that would deepen democracy, ensure judicial independence and promote accountability. Publisher of the African

Newspapers of Nigeria (ANN) Plc, Dr Awolowo Dosunmu, equally told the gathering that constitutional structures are key to national growth because they enable the success of visionary regional leaders in the past. She believed that a new framework that could similarly empower future generations of Nigerians has become imperative. She gave insights into what inspired her admiration for federalism, thus: “I probably inherited my passion for a federal constitution from a man who advocated for it all his life, my father [Chief Obafemi Awolowo]. I will do everything within my power to see this through. I come to this assignment from the angle that, fundamental to the issues and challenges of Nigeria, is the constitution. I also come to this assignment from the angle of advocacy for federal constitution. It is also instructive that this meeting is taking place around the famous place where Chief Rotimi Williams held sway all his life. He was a member of that crack team that did wonders in the West.”

While words coming from the statesmen seem heartwarming, it is, however, disheartening that neither the political system nor the 18 registered political parties could think of taking such fundamental steps before now.  Out of the 48 months assigned by the constitution as a term of office of the democratically elected office holders, President Bola Tinubu is about completing the first half at the end of this month. It should come as a surprise that none of the political parties, not even the main opposition party, has paid attention to the need for critical changes in the constitutional procedures.

When I had an interview with the national chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Alhaji Shehu Gabam, on this issue weeks ago, simply said that his party had submitted its proposals to the National Assembly. We don’t need to repeat that the lawmakers have kept the said proposal in the cooler. Not many of the other existing parties have taken any noticeable steps in such direction. What this goes to show is that many of the current political players are just politicians. Statesmen are rare to come by. In the words of James Clarke as quoted above, politicians think only about the next election. When a child stumbles, he looks ahead, but when an elder stumbles, he looks back, is a popular saying among the Yoruba.  Why are our politicians not looking back to see where rain started beating the vulture?

 

There was so much noise about alleged rigging and electoral malpractices during the 2023 general elections. Some critics even said that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had to announce the presidential elections in the dead of the night. There were talks about system glitz which affected electronic collation of the presidential election results. There was also the hype around the votes of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), whether a candidate must win the FCT to be validly elected and there were issues of the massive BVAS failure in many locations but once the Supreme Court dropped its ruling on the election, everywhere became quiet. Instead of the National Assembly leading serious efforts aimed at perfecting the Electoral Act in such a way that would guarantee less human input, not much is being heard about that. Incidentally, INEC will, in a matter of weeks, announce its electoral calendar for 2027, setting the nation on the march. 

Though the politicians are really idling away. They are busy oiling the machines ahead of 2027. The ruling APC is busy gathering its arsenal, while many leaders of the main opposition PDP appear to be helping the APC perfect its expected victory. Only a few in the opposition parties are trying to pick the pieces. Whatever they are doing, nothing is focused on addressing the key issue of leadership recruitment process and how we can minimize the sort of situation that led to a professor being jailed for vote manipulation. No stakeholder is talking about how to adopt an electronic system that would ensure the votes count and reduce the ugly trend of vote buying and the like.

As much as the younger elements in the political field are not giving a thought to the nation’s democratic goodness, we must give huge credits to the initiative by Chief Anyaoku and the statesmen, who have chosen to concern themselves with the task of addressing what has been described as democratic paradox, a situation where democracy promises so much but delivers so little. By restarting that effort in the week Pa Ayo Adebanjo is being laid to rest is just a befitting farewell for the man who fought for life more abundant for all till he joined his ancestors on February 14, 2025.

“There is the saying, to wit, an elder running in the afternoon: if he is not pursuing something, something is pursuing him”

AS was wont our practice, we rubbed minds as those of us who were friends and aides sat at table with Governor Ayodele Fayose at Osuntokun House, as the Ekiti State Government House, Ado-Ekiti, was called. Contributing to a discussion, I said: “Politics is the art or science of serving the public interest”. Fayose, sitting at the head of the table, cut in sharply and said, “No Sir! Politics is a game of self-interest.” We argued but His Excellency maintained his stand. “Excuse me, Sir; no public sent me into politics. I came into politics on my own volition”, he added. Whenever Fayose begins by saying “Excuse me, Sir”, know that he is already agitated or deeply animated by the topic of discussion. No public drafted him into politics. No public raised the funds for him. No public suffered the ups and downs with him. He maneuvered his way through by himself. Oh! The trials, the tribulations and the challenges! What of his kangaroo impeachment whereby the then President Olusegun Obasanjo haunted him out of office? He escaped by the whiskers – in the boot of a “jalopy” car! His travails in exile; his trial and how he eventually was exonerated. The betrayals and how he plotted his way back into office. “Excuse me, Sir, the politics you just defined is the one you learnt in the university. The real politics that I am talking about is “igboro” politics – the politics we practice in the street”. We could not agree before we moved on to other matters.

 Recall that towards the end of his tenure in 2018, the EFCC began a campaign of calumny against Fayose who, as the last man standing, had been a thorn in the flesh of the then President Muhammadu Buhari. EFCC alleged that the governor had perfected plans to flee the country and escape trial on alleged corruption charges. Although international flight tickets allegedly purchased by him for the purpose were published, Fayose boldly asserted that he had no plans to flee but that he would turn himself over to the EFCC by himself once his tenure ends. In his dramatic fashion of doing things, Fayose printed T-Shirts and face caps with the inscription; “EFCC, here I come!” and true to his words, he presented himself to the EFCC at their Abuja office. I followed him there, together with bus loads of other friends and aides. At the gate to the EFCC office, only the then Rivers state Gov. Nyesome Wike and Mike Ozekhome, SAN (Fayose’s lawyer) were allowed inside the EFCC fortress with the governor. The rest of us were asked to go back. It was a hell of a time restraining one of Fayose’s brothers who heckled the EFCC without restraint. Fayose had to shout at him to calm down. It baffles me, then, that the same brother appears as the one recently accusing Fayose on social media of not helping him while he (Fayose) was in office. Anyway, that is not my purpose here today!

 As Fayose was stepping into the EFCC fortress, he cast a glance in my direction and giggled! I clearly understood the coded message! Which public was there to face the fire with him? When he was charged to court in Lagos and was remanded at the Ikoyi prisons, I also went there several times to visit him in company with his Chief Press Secretary, Idowu Adelusi, and his assistant, Wahab Adeshina. On my first trip there, we sat in the office of the Assistant Comptroller-General and threw banters until it was some minutes to 6 pm when the Oga came and said, “Your Excellency, it is time for you to go inside” I didn’t know when I blurted out, ‘Go inside where? You mean you will go inside that place?” There were hordes of half-naked men in their hundreds in a small space not up to a quarter of a football field. Fayose smiled as he packed his bag and stood up. Tears welled in my eyes as he made for the iron gate. “BB, don’t cry. It is because you are a godly man that you even followed me here. What did I give you when we were in Ekiti? Where are my family members here now? Where are those who took all the big, big jobs?” And he began to name names. Where is this person? And where is that person? He then reminded me of our argument about what politics is! In a sense, Fayose was right!

 

Self-interests, not national or public interests

 Our Constitution is also partly to blame. Section 40 of the Nigerian 1999 Constitution (as amended) states thus: “Every person shall be entitled to assemble freely and associate with other persons, and in particular he may form or belong to any political party, trade union or any other association for the protection of his interests…” The operative words are “for the protection of his interests.” Not national interests. Not public interests. Here, the Constitution allows politicians to aggregate or belong to political parties to pursue, advance, promote, and protect their own personal interests. Therefore, the overriding principle of political association is the promotion of the individual interests of the individual politician. So, if, this morning, a party is in a position to advance your interest, you belong to it. If, by the evening, the permutations change and it is another party that is in the position to better serve your interest, you move into that party. Rather than blame politicians for playing harlotry, we should amend the Constitution and block the loopholes that allow for such.          

Cross-carpeting is age-old!

 

 The defection of the entire PDP political structure in Delta State into the APC has raised new concerns about carpet-crossing, which is as old as the democratic experience in the country. The first misconceived case of carpet-crossing took place in the Western Region House of Assembly in 1951 when the NCNC, led by Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, thought it had won more seats in that year’s regional election than the Action Group led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, but on election day on the floor of the House, the AG torpedoed the NCNC, thereby leading to the AG leader, Awolowo, becoming the first premier of the region. Ever since, defection has been a recurring decimal in the country’s political landscape. Here, again, the Constitution is to blame in that it is not firm enough in discouraging defection but leaves enough loopholes for defectors to exploit. For instance, Section 187 (1) (b) and 187 (3) which provide that a governor who defects from his party within three years of his election will have his seat declared vacant however allowed a leeway: provided the defecting governor can prove that his defection was not for the purpose of personal gain! Tell me, what does that mean, if not allowing a loophole for politicians, lawyers and judges to fly on? Hence the controversy that this section continues to generate: While some say it is too broad and liable to divergent interpretations, others say it is too narrow and not straight to the point.

 The same thing can also be said of Section 68 (1) (g) which addresses defection of any member of the National Assembly and Section 109 (1) (g) for any state House of Assembly member who “becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected.” Had it stopped there, it would have been clear and unambiguous but ambiguity was deliberately, I believe, introduced when the same provision adds: “Provided that his membership of the latter party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored…” So, what it takes is for a defector to prove that there is crisis or factionalisation in his party, which is so easy to contrive.

Learning from other climes

 Is the PDP factionalised? Five of its governors broke ranks in the 2023 elections and voted against their own presidential candidate. The party is also said to be discussing a merger with some other parties. While some of its leaders are said to be in favour, others have said, “Count us out!” Maybe we should borrow a leaf from countries which minced no words while proscribing defection. In countries like India, Malawi, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, Seychelles, Singapore, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe, not only is defection outlawed, standing or voting against your party in parliament results in automatic expulsion from your office. 

Defection has many fathers

 Other reasons why we are witnessing a gale of defection include the fact that there is nowadays no ideological content in our political parties, unlike in the first and second Republics. All the parties that we have now promote the same capitalist ideology. They are different fingers of the same leprous hand. So anyone in any of the parties easily fits into another. The last time a serious attempt was made at giving some ideological underpinning to party formation here was during Gen. Ibrahim Babangida’s SDP (a little to the Left) and NRC (a little to the Right) era. In the Fourth Republic, the Alliance for Democracy was the last half-hearted attempt at ideological sloganeering which crumbled the moment it was pushed into obscurity by the emergent political machinery of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The fear of EFCC…

 Apart from Delta state, other states said to be warming up to decamp into the APC include Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Kano, Enugu and still counting! Why? Our people have a saying: When you see an elder running in the afternoon, if he is not pursuing something, something is pursuing him! Some governors are defecting because they are pursuing a second term in 2027 or whenever. Others are defecting because their past – and the past of their godfathers – is pursuing them. For many of our politicians, the fear of EFCC is the beginning of wisdom. Don’t mind their denials!

Errant brides, beware: Promiscuous APC is on the prowl!

 The JAPA syndrome afflicting opposition parties is also fuelled by the humongous amount of money that President Tinubu’s twin-policy of fuel subsidy removal and deregulation of forex now places on the laps of governors every month. Governors have never had it this good. Whatever anyone may say, President Tinubu is an irresistible suitor to many of our politicians. So, like my sister, Funke Egbemode, has warned: Errant brides, beware! Promiscuous APC is on the prowl! Tell me, which governor or legislator will not want the ongoing partying to continue? Politicians are having a swell time even though the populace is having a hell of a time.

Is a one-party state in the offing?

Are we, then, moving towards a one-party state? My take is that we have always operated one, albeit one that masquerades as multi-party democracy but which is now coming out more forcefully into the open as it divests itself of its disguises. Vibrant opposition is not just about noise-making – which social media can amptly help us with – but involves placing before the country sound alternative programmes and policies and galvanizing the populace to put the government on its toes – and to change it if change becomes inevitable. That has been lacking with an effete opposition unable to do the minimum of keeping its own house in order. And a house divided against itself…

As the world anticipates the Conclave scheduled for Wednesday, May 7, 2025, many observers agree that this may very well be the most interesting and potentially transformative Conclave in the history of the Catholic Church. What sets this event apart is not merely the number, but the remarkable diversity of the College of Cardinals tasked with this sacred duty.

Under the visionary leadership of Pope Francis, the College has undergone a profound transformation. More than any of his predecessors, Francis significantly expanded the College’s global representation. Over the course of ten consistories, he created 163 Cardinals—133 of whom are under the age of 80 and thus eligible to vote. These appointments span 73 nations, including 23 countries that, until now, had never been represented in the College of Cardinals. This unprecedented inclusion of nations from every inhabited continent is not just symbolic; it signals a shift in how the Church perceives its universal mission.

Historically, papal elections have tended to be brief. The past two Conclaves held in 2005 and 2013 respectively were concluded within two days. However, this upcoming Conclave may take considerably longer. Out of the 135 electors expected to participate, 108 were appointed by Pope Francis and have never before met in such a capacity. The lack of pre-established relationships and political alliances could prolong the process of arriving at the required two-thirds majority.

Adding to the unpredictability is an old Roman saying that has become folklore within the Church: “Chi entra papa nel Conclave, ne esce cardinale”—"He who enters the Conclave as Pope, exits as a Cardinal." This adage captures the mystery and the often surprising nature of papal elections. In this case, the diversity of the electors is likely to challenge traditional assumptions and alliances, while opening the door to new and perhaps unexpected outcomes.

Indeed, this diversity may be the very reason why the next Pope is likely to be the most global pontiff in the Church’s history. He will not merely be a representative of a particular continent or theological leaning, but a product of an unusual global consensus. With electors representing all seven continents and over 156 of the world’s 193 countries, this Conclave presents an opportunity for the election of a Pope who embodies a more universal vision of the Church.

Such a Pope would likely transcend the longstanding binary of “Conservative” and “Liberal” within Catholic discourse. Instead, he may embody the emerging “moderate” current—those who combine the doctrinal fidelity of conservatives with the pastoral sensitivity often associated with more progressive voices. This could usher in a balanced and inclusive approach to Church leadership, well-suited to the demands of a complex and pluralistic global society.

History offers a similar compelling precedent in the election of Pope John XXIII, born Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli. Elected on October 28, 1958, after a prolonged, and nearly inconclusive Conclave, he was initially seen as a “transitional Pope.” Yet he defied expectations, convoking the Second Vatican Council—a watershed moment in modern Church history. John XXIII also expanded the College of Cardinals to better reflect the global face of Catholicism, setting the stage for the Church’s evolving international identity.

Since then, successive Popes have increasingly embraced a global vision. Pope Paul VI, elected in 1963, concluded the Second Vatican Council and implemented its reforms. He also became the first Pope to visit Australia in 1970, symbolizing the growing outreach of the Holy See. His successor, Albino Luciani elected in 1978, chose a dual papal name—John Paul, to signal continuity from his immediate past two predecessors — John XXIII and Paul VI. Though his reign lasted only 33 days, it set the tone for the energetic and internationally-minded papacy of Pope John Paul II.

Elected on October 16, 1978, John Paul II—born Karol Józef Wojtyła of Poland, was the first non-Italian Pope in 455 years. His 27-year reign was marked by unprecedented global engagement, as he traveled extensively and connected deeply with Catholics around the world. His successor, Pope Benedict XVI (Joseph Ratzinger), served from 2005 to 2013 and brought theological depth and clarity, though many viewed him as struggling to fill the expansive shoes of John Paul II.

Pope Francis, elected in 2013, represented a radical pastoral shift. A Jesuit and the first Pope from the Southern Hemisphere, he chose to reside in the Vatican guesthouse rather than the opulent apostolic apartments—symbolizing his commitment to simplicity and humility. His papacy was marked by outreach to the peripheries: the poor, the marginalized, and even those traditionally viewed as outside the fold, such as the LGBTQ community. He preached mercy as a defining Christian virtue, emphasizing the Church’s role as a field hospital rather than a fortress.

His Jesuit formation, with its global apostolic mandate, shaped his ecclesial worldview. Throughout his pontificate, Francis appointed Cardinals from diverse and underrepresented regions of the world, ensuring the College reflected the universal Church. For the first time, Europe is a minority in the College of Cardinal electors. A combination of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania now play a more decisive role than ever before in determining the Church’s next leader.

This shift is not merely demographic—it is ecclesiological. It reflects a Church increasingly conscious of its identity as a truly global body. No longer Eurocentric, the Church now speaks many languages, celebrates diverse cultures, and addresses a wide range of social, political, and spiritual realities.

The upcoming Conclave, then, is more than a mere election—it is a manifestation of a maturing global Church. The next Pope, chosen by a College of Cardinals that better reflects the world, is likely to embody a more cosmopolitan spirituality, able to navigate the tensions of tradition and change, doctrine and dialogue, orthodoxy and outreach. The incoming Pope may likely (in practical terms) see himself as the Parish Priest of the whole world.

Just as Pope John XXIII’s unexpected election in 1958 led to a revitalized Church through Vatican II, we may be on the cusp of another such renewal. The next Bishop of Rome will inherit not just a throne, but a world-stage—called to lead with courage, compassion, and vision.

In the end, the Church’s future will not be shaped by geography or ideology alone, but by the spiritual wisdom and unity of its shepherds. As Catholics and global citizens alike look toward the Sistine Chapel with hope and curiosity, we await not only a new Pope—but perhaps a new chapter in the story of the Church.

May daylight spare us!

 

 

 

 

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