The best moment for the combination of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Governor Peter Obi to clinch the presidency of Nigeria—as President and Vice President respectively—could have been in 2023.
But it is now like a pie dream, metaphorically

The duo, who had previously paired up in 2019 to contest against then-incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, made a significant impact by scoring 11,262,978 votes against Buhari’s 15,191,847—a winning/lossing margin of 3,928,869 votes. They came closer than many expected to dislodging Buhari from power.

However, the momentum gained in 2019 fizzled out, lost to what some pundits have described as miscommunication or conflicting body language between the pair. Recently, the two have been seen traversing the country, culminating in meetings in Abuja over the past weekend, apparently seeking a way forward to reignite their old political alliance.

In 2019, victory seemed within reach for the Atiku Abubakar–Peter Obi ticket. So much so that respected election experts, such as the late Prof. Humphrey Nwosu, former INEC chairman, believed that the opposition PDP may have actually won the election but was rigged out by the then-ruling APC.

After coming so close, it was natural to expect that the duo would build on their 2019 momentum heading into the 2023 contest. But perhaps driven by desperation, and guided by ambitions that did not align with the prevailing political winds, both men, of their own volition, chose to face off against each other instead.

As numerous pundits have noted, the combined total of over 13 million votes garnered by Atiku Abubakar (as PDP candidate) and Peter Obi (as Labour Party flag bearer) in 2023 far exceeded the little over 8.7 million votes earned by then-APC candidate Bola Tinubu, who ultimately won the presidential election.

Yet, President Tinubu has not rested on his laurels. Since taking office, he has worked assiduously to turn Nigeria’s economy around—from the financially strained status he inherited to a more resilient and forward-facing economic posture. Although his economic reforms have brought hardships, they are generally seen as necessary for the country’s long-term benefit.

Beyond economic policy, President Tinubu has launched a political charm offensive. He has been courting voters and political leaders across Nigeria’s 22 APC-controlled states—and beyond. This has led to an unprecedented wave of defections from opposition parties into the ruling APC, including governors, lawmakers, and party faithful.

The success of this political maneuvering has alarmed opposition parties, who now allege that Nigeria is drifting towards a one-party state akin to China or Vietnam—both authoritarian yet economically successful nations. I have long advocated for Nigeria to evolve its own indigenous brand of democracy, potentially a hybrid of the parliamentary and presidential systems, tailored to our unique cultural and political context. Why should we shun the Chinese or Vietnamese models outright, especially when they demonstrate effective economic governance? Unlike some analyst who are worried about Nigeria becoming a one party, if such a political snowball manifests , there will be a Big Bang which is a theory supporting the claim that the universe began with an explosion of a single particle at a definite centre point.
Based on the aforementioned theory , it is possible that before 2031 when the APC would have been in control of power in the centre consistently for sixteen (16) years, many more parties may spring out it.
Recall that the PDP imploded after 16 years (1999-2015) of consistently being in control of power during which internal schisms caused then ruling party to disintergrate with the current key political actors being the agent provocateurs for the scattering of the party when it became a behemoth.
Is it not such an irony that it is the same key players in the guillotining and burial of PDP that are currently jostling to form another Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to do to President Tinubu what they did to then President Goodluck
Jonathan in 2015?

But President Tinubu who appears to be ahead of the opposition in critical thinking has probably figured out their game plan and changed his strategy and tactics by throwing carrots as baits to the opposition which as usual is dominated by discontents from the APC and originally from PDP who have lost out in the power sharing matrix of the current ruling party and therefore seeking relevance by leveraging another platform.
The incumbent president who is currently the target of his former colleagues who want a piece of the pie has ecountered the opposition’s concerns by asserting that politicians are free to join the ruling party if they so choose, provided they are not coerced. He has even predicted more defections, confident in the old adage: nothing succeeds like success.

In a twist of fate, the political rift between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi—leading to their separate bids for the presidency in 2023—became Bola Tinubu’s biggest gain. Their failure to pragmatically manage their alliance after 2019 ultimately cost them a real shot at power.

Instead of regrouping to re-enact their 2019 partnership, suspicion and mistrust prevailed in 2023 and they are now licking their wound while trying to come up with a new strategy to challenge Tinubu one more time in 2027. But as they have ended up splitting the votes—especially in the South-East and South-South, PDP strongholds since 1999, the goodwill that they could have banked from their earlier alliance was squandered in 2023 and l believe nothing has changed as OBldients are to the left while PDP devotes are centrists.

Now, they appear to be trying to regroup in preparation for 2027 applying the tactic of coalition of opposition parties introduced by Tinubu in 2013. But the questions remain:
• Do they still command the same goodwill they enjoyed in 2019 and 2023?
• Are voters in the South-East and South-South still motivated to rally behind Peter Obi and the Labour Party?
• Do those who backed Atiku Abubakar still believe in his presidential project?

The political division between the two may have polarized their supporters beyond reconciliation. While many argue that Nigerian politicians are not ideologically driven, it’s clear that the PDP and Labour Party represent different ideological orientations. Consequently, some Obi supporters may never back Atiku, just as some Atiku loyalists may never support Obi.

It may also be true that voters who supported Tinubu in 2023 might reconsider in 2027. However, unlike Abubakar and Obi, Tinubu has not hopped from one party to another. He has remained ideologically consistent—from AD which later became ACN to APC, the latter being a merger of opposition parties that unseated the PDP in 2015.

In contrast, both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have changed parties multiple times. Atiku has swung between the PDP and APC, while Obi moved from APGA to PDP, and then to the Labour Party. This inconsistency may haunt them in the minds of voters in 2027.

Given all this, the age-old adage “a house divided against itself cannot stand” comes to mind. And in Christian parlance: “May God cause my enemies to make mistakes that will promote me.”also rings true in this instance.
Both of these dictums seem to define the political fate of both Abubakar and Obi.

Have the PDP and Labour Party’s 2023 flag bearers made too many political mistakes to remain credible contenders in 2027? Have they exhausted their political goodwill?

In my 2019 book “Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide”, I proposed that Atiku should enter into a one-term agreement with the South-East and South-South voters, making Obi his Vice President and future successor. That proposal, which they ignored, is now ironically being considered for the 2027 elections.

But as the old nursery rhyme says: It’s too late to cry when the head is off.

Simply put, Nigeria’s political tide has shifted. Old solutions no longer suffice. The coalition formula (Special Purpose Vehicle, or SPV) that succeeded in ousting the PDP in 2015 is now antiquated, especially as the ruling APC under Tinubu grows stronger.

Unlike Abubakar and Obi—who seem to have been doing the right things at the wrong time—President Tinubu appears to have been reading the political tea leaves correctly. His now-famous “Emi Lo Kan” (It’s My Turn) battle cry during the APC primaries reflected a prescient and confident approach to his presidential ambition, despite the obstacles placed in his path.

All said and done, with the opposition still in disarray and a crowd of presidential hopefuls angling to unseat President Tinubu, it’s hard to see how they can mount a unified challenge. Unless a political miracle occurs—where all opposition candidates agree to back a single contender—2027 increasingly looks like a done deal for Tinubu and the APC.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist.

When General Sani Abacha deceptively seized power in 1993 from the interim government led by Chief Ernest Shonekan, one thing he pretended about was returning power to the people. First was that he pretended that he had a plan to hand over to Chief MKO Abiola, who was believed to have won the annulled June 12, 1993 election. Later, he pretended that he had a plan to hand over power to politicians through an election.After several years of suppressing and silencing opponents, Abacha eventually announced that he would hand over power to a democratically elected government on October 1, 1998. Politicians began to form political parties with the hopes of taking over from Abacha. Abacha approved five of them. He even conducted elections for the local government areas and the states’ legislature in 1997. In April 1998, he conducted the federal legislative elections. What remained was the gubernatorial and presidential elections, scheduled for August 1, 1998.

But the dark-goggled general had other plans. In 1997, a strange group by the name Youths Earnestly Ask for Abacha had been formed. The group was led by a 26-year-old American returnee called Daniel Kanu. The group was campaigning for Abacha to drop his military uniform and become a civilian president. The group was spending a humongous amount of money, which was evident as its organisers could not afford it.

YEAA started the publicity for what it called the Two-Million-Man March, scheduled to be held in Abuja from March 3 to 4, which was meant to show that Nigerian youths were passionately asking Abacha to hand over to himself. Mr Olisa Agbakoba, under the aegis of the United Action for Democracy, countered it with what his group tagged the Five-Million-Man March to reject Abacha. Expectedly, while Kanu’s rally went without hitches, with security providing protection, Agbakoba’s rally was disrupted by security operatives. They gave Agbakoba a black eye, which he generously displayed to the media. Some newspapers gave his picture front-page coverage. That sent a clear message that Abacha was behind YEAA, while the masses wanted the military to relinquish power.

On the political turf, something curious was unfolding. Some of those who had shown interest in running for president began to withdraw from the race. One by one, the five parties began to announce Abacha as their sole candidate, even though Abacha was not their member. It was obvious that an unseen hand was exerting some pressure. Bombs were also going off in different homes and offices, especially those who were critical of Abacha. Some people were shot dead or killed by bombs. Some were lucky to survive. Some were arrested and charged with treason. Some died in detention. Some were hanged. Some, like Senator Bola Tinubu, fled Nigeria.

The nation was in shock and helplessness. The helplessness came from the realisation that it was just a matter of time before Abacha would become the civilian leader. Some prominent Nigerians called G34, under the leadership of Dr Alex Ekwueme, wrote a letter to Abacha explaining why it was not proper for him to succeed himself. But the message fell on deaf ears.
On June 8, 1998, Abacha died. Death was the only power that could stop Abacha from putting the whole of Nigeria in his pocket and becoming the president.

Today, ironically, even though Tinubu was a victim of Abacha’s highhandedness, it is surprising that he has allowed himself to be associated with the reenactment of the Abacha style that is going on. One can see a clear attempt to get all opposition members into the APC.
The icing on the cake was last week’s action of both the Senate President, Senator Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Tajudeen Abbas. They moved a motion that the whole of Nigeria should adopt Tinubu as the sole candidate for the 2027 presidential election.

This happened at the APC Summit in Abuja on May 22. At the summit, the Senate President said inter alia:
“The leadership of the House of Representatives should join me. I want all the members of the National Assembly of the APC extraction to stand up wherever they are. I want distinguished senators to stand up wherever they are. And you will re-echo what I’m going to say. Those who love you will also join. I want to move, and let it be moved, that not only will President Bola Ahmed Tinubu be the sole candidate for the presidency in 2027, but he will also be the sole candidate for the whole Nigerian population. Because all other political parties have been turned into shreds. Nigerians are saying that because you have done a difficult job well, it is time for us to reward you by sending you back to the Presidency for a second term in office. I move, therefore, as the Senate President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, that Mr President return, one, as a candidate of the APC unopposed, and secondly, as the next president for a second term, come 2027. I so move.”

The Speaker of the House of Representatives seconded the motion, dragging in all members of the National Assembly as well as the members of the Houses of Assembly of the 36 states of Nigeria. He said: “I stand on behalf of the entire 109 senators, 360 members, and all the 36 speakers and their members to second this very important motion moved by the Senate President.”

It was most embarrassing to watch these two symbols of democracy engage in such an act. As the leaders of the National Assembly, the Senate President and Speaker represent the legislative arm of government. Anytime the three arms of government are listed, the legislature comes first, followed by the executive and then the judiciary. The reason is that the lawmakers represent the Constitution, which is the document that gives the nation legitimacy and authority to function. That is why when the President visits the National Assembly, he bows to the Senate President, even though the office of the President is above any other office. But he is not bowing to the person who occupies the office of the Senate President. Rather, he is bowing to the supremacy of the Constitution, which the legislature represents.

Legislators are elected from different constituencies across the country to ensure that the President or party in power does not just execute personal desires. The legislators act as a check to the President to ensure that the Constitution is respected and adhered to. In dictatorships, there is usually no legislature. The executive arm and the judicial arm can exist. That shows that the legislative arm of government is the one that best represents democracy.

To then see the embodiments of the legislative arm leading the charge in replicating what happened under the dictatorship of Abacha, where Abacha used inducement, threats and blackmail to force all the parties to endorse him as the sole candidate in the 1998 election was a slap on democracy. A one-party system is antithetical to democracy. The Constitution recognises the opposition and provides for the opposition party as well as the opposition leader or minority leader in the legislature.

After 26 years of unbroken–the longest Nigeria has ever witnessed–Nigerians expect to see clear signs of growth and progress in the democracy they practise. By now, Nigerian democracy should have evolved to a level of maturity. However, the democracy Nigerians practised in 1999 is far better than what is happening today. That is not a sign of progress.

Within one year in office and three years to the next election, this administration has been so concerned about the 2027 election that little attention has been paid to governance. The progress that has been made against the insurgency has been rolled back. For example, last month, Governor Zulum of Borno lamented: “As I address this important gathering today, it is unfortunate that the renewed Boko Haram attacks and kidnappings in many communities, almost on a daily basis without confrontation, signalled that Borno State is losing ground.”

Like James Freeman Clarke said, “A politician thinks of the next election; a statesman thinks of the next generation.” Our leaders should choose whether to remain politicians or to upgrade to statesmen.

In promulgating decree 24 on May 5, 1999 as the 1999 Constitution, the then Head of State and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, made an addendum to the decree. The addendum was not part of the decree, it was just an explanation on the Constitution. General Abubakar declared in the addendum: “Whereas the Federal Military Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in compliance with the Transition to Civil Rule (Political Programme) Decree 1998 has, through the Independent National Electoral Commission, conducted elections to the office of President and Vice-President, Governors and Deputy-Governors, Chairmen and Vice-Chairmen, the National Assembly, the Houses of Assembly and the local government councils; 

“And whereas the Federal Military Government in furtherance of its commitment to hand over to a democratically elected civilian administration on 29th May 1999. inaugurated on 11th November 1998, the Constitutional Debate Co-ordinating Committee charged with responsibility to, among other things, pilot the debate on the new Constitution for Nigeria, co-ordinate and collate views and recommendations canvassed by individuals and groups for a new Constitution for Nigeria; 

“And whereas the Constitutional Debate Co-ordinating Committee benefitted from the receipt of large volumes of memoranda from Nigerians at home and abroad and oral presentations at the public hearings at the debate centres throughout the country and the conclusions arrived thereat and also at various seminars, workshops and conferences organised and was convinced that the general consensus of opinion of Nigerians is the desire to retain the provisions of the 1979 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria with some amendments; 

“And whereas the Constitutional Debate Co-ordinating Committee has presented the report of its deliberations to the Provisional Ruling Council;

And whereas the Provisional Ruling Council has approved the report subject to such amendments as are deemed necessary in the public interest and for the purpose of promoting the security, welfare and good governance and fostering the unity and progress of the people of Nigeria with a view to achieving its objective of handing over an enduring Constitution to the people of Nigeria; 

And whereas, it is necessary in accordance with the programme on transition to civil rule for the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1979 after necessary amendments and approval by the Provisional Ruling Council to be promulgated into a new Constitution for the Federal Republic of Nigeria in order to give the same force of law with effect from 29th May 1999: NOW THEREFORE, THE FEDERAL MILITARY GOVERNMENT hereby decrees as follows:- (1) There shall be for Nigeria a Constitution which shall be as set out in the Schedule to this Decree. (2) The Constitution set out in the Schedule to this Decree shall come into force on 29th May 1999. (3) Whenever it may hereafter be necessary for the Constitution to be printed it shall be lawful for the Federal Government Printer to omit all parts of this Decree apart from the Schedule and the Constitution as so printed shall have the force of law notwithstanding the omission, 2. This Decree may be cited as the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (Promulgation) Decree 1999”.

You are free to form an opinion on the addendum. One thing is however clear, by the time we held the gubernatorial elections in the country on February 20, 1999 and the Presidential election on February 29, 1999, the new Constitution was not ready. By 1999, the 1979 Constitution suspended by Brigadier General Sani Abacha’s announcement on December 31, 1983, was still suspended. 

Likewise, the 1988 Constitution prepared by the Constituent Assembly headed by Justice Anthony Aniagolu(1922-2011) was not available. 

To be concluded 

•Teniola, a former director at the Presidency, wrote from Lagos.

Godwin Ifeanyi Emefiele (CFR), Nsukka, Harvard and Stanford University-trained economist turned banker, who served as governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 4 June 2014 until he was suspended by President Bola Tinubu, on 9 June 2023, will probably go down in history as the most criminally minded and the worst Nigerian CBN governor.

Undoubtedly, Emefiele was a master of his game. A PDP sympathiser brought in to supplant Sanusi Lamido, believed to be sympathetic to APC on account of his relentless criticism of massive corruption going on in Jonathan’s administration, effortlessly manipulated an untrusting Buhari who just watched him as he broke all rules, including attempting to succeed his principal even as a sitting CBN governor.

As a leader with the mindset of a feudal lord, Emefiele gave Buhari all feudal lords’ want – unalloyed loyalty.  Buhari overlooked Emefiele’s criminal tendencies, which were apparent from his handling of $2.1b released to the former National Security Adviser, Colonel Sambo Dasuki (retd), which was shared as election largesse to reappoint him for a second term.

But how was Emefiele able to cover up his criminal enterprise for eight years, whether in terms of foreign exchange manipulation, where his friends who did not bid secured allocation freely deployed for round tripping, printing of over N30 trillion through ways and means, half of which was suspected to have been stolen, and various multibillion CBN intervention programmes that produced only fake rice pyramids?

Emefiele had a useful ally in a section of the media that opted to trade its constitutional role of holding other institutions of state accountable and serving as agents of socialisation, for crusading for crooks, a very rewarding endeavour when they are executed on behalf of influential bank owners who converted depositors funds to private use, governors who desperately need the judiciary to retain their opponents’ stolen mandates, and, of course, those who stole the country blind by confiscating national patrimony in the name of privatisation and monetisation self- serving policies.

Emefiele was a toast of ARISE TV and her Thisday platform, especially since his reappointment for a second term by President Buhari. They had waged war after war against anyone who dared to raise questions about Emefiele’s character, including the House of Representatives and its speaker, vice president Osinbajo, candidate Tinubu in the 2023 election and some APC governors that went to court to compel Emefiele to obey the Supreme Court judgment.

It is on record that Emefiele held the nation hostage during his politically motivated currency re-colouring exercise, as angry and hungry Nigerians, denied access to their money, laid siege to banks and ATM centres. The House of Representatives tried to persuade an unfeeling and arrogant Emefiele to consider the suffering of Nigerians.

Thisday immediately embarked on a crusade on behalf of Emefiele, with a front-page January 28, 2023 story titled “In battle against independent monetary policy, House threatens Emefiele.” The crusaders dismissed the House invitation of the CBN governor to appear before its banking committee over the lingering currency crisis, in line with its statutory oversight function, as a plot to “erode” CBN’s independence.

After his repeated failure to  honour House committee summons,  the then House Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, had threatened to invoke relevant sections of the law to effect Emefiele’s arrest by the police for undermining the efforts of the House to carry out its oversight functions. Thisday and its self-proclaiming patriots accused the speaker of pursuing personal interest, claiming the invitation was “against the provisions of the law.”

Vice President Osinbajo was not spared by ARISE, self –proclaimed patriots. When, in November 2021, he criticised the Central Bank governor for what he called an “artificially low” exchange rate, claiming he was convinced that the demand management strategy adopted by the CBN needed a rethink, it was from far-away Paris, during Nigeria International Partnership Forum, that Nigerians were told, through ARISE Correspondent, Adefemi Akinsanya, that the Vice President missed the point. He debunked the VP’s accusations of poor collaboration between Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary authorities. Emefiele also spoke of pumping close to N3trillion loans to manufacturers at a single digit rate and more monies to Buhari’s policy of creating 100 million jobs in four years.

Candidate Bola Tinubu in the 2023 election was similarly viciously attacked by ARISE’ self-proclaimed patriots in the service of Emefiele. He had publicly criticised the government claiming the CBN policy was targeted at him to scuttle his presidential campaign. His APC supporters threw their weight behind his remarks.  ARISE, of course, took sides with Emefiele, and the president, who they claimed were acting in the public interest. They spoke of a bullion van found in his house during the 2019 election in which he was not a participant.

For ARISE, Emefiele could do no wrong. In February 2023, Governors Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Yahaya Bello (Kogi) and Bello Matawalle (Zamfara) dragged the Federal Government before the Supreme Court, complaining of the time frame for the exchange of the re-designed naira. According to them, “the majority of their state indigenes have been unable to exchange or deposit their old naira notes as there are no banks in the rural areas where the majority of the population of the states reside.” What they got from Emefiele was his insistence that the February 10 deadline remained unchanged.

But the battle cry from ARISE that claimed, without proof, that the governors were driven by a desire to buy votes was “fact check me, it is all about the governors’ shenanigans.” They even went farcical, questioning the right of the governors to appeal to the Supreme Court when they did not go to court over the abduction of Shaibu five years earlier

In May 2022, Emefiele expressed his desire to succeed President Buhari by filing a lawsuit at the Federal High Court in Abuja seeking an order directing INEC and the Office of the Attorney General not to stop him from contesting the presidency. While Nigerians demanded the removal of the CBN governor and accused him of violating multiple provisions of the Central Bank Act, Emefiele’s media enablers found nothing.

After being dressed in borrowed robes for eight years, what Nigerians can deduce from various recent judicial pronouncements is that Emefiele engaged in corrupt practices.

For instance, Justice Bogoro, in his judgement, held that the following funds and properties are proceeds of unlawful activities, which are bound to be forfeited to the Federal Government of Nigeria: $4.7m, N830m, and multiple properties linked to Emefiele by the Federal High Court in Lagos.

The funds, forfeited to the Federal Government, were held in First Bank, Titan Bank, and Zenith Bank accounts managed by individuals and entities including Omoile Anita Joy, Deep Blue Energy Services Limited, Exact Quote Bureau De Change Ltd, Lipam Investment Services Limited, Tatler Services Limited, Rosajul Global Resources Ltd, and TIL Communication Nigeria Ltd.

The properties affected include 94 units of an 11-floor building under construction at 2 Otunba Elegushi 2nd Avenue, Ikoyi, Lagos; AM Plaza, 11-floor office space on Otunba Adedoyin Crescent, Lekki Peninsula Scheme 1, Lagos; Imore Industrial Park 1 on Esa Street, Imoore Land, Amuwo Odofin LGA, Lagos; Mitrewood and Tatler Warehouse (Furniture Plant at Bogije) near Elemoro, Owolomi Village, Ibeju-Lekki LGA, Lagos; and two properties purchased from Chevron Nigeria, located in Lakes Estate, Lekki, Lagos.

Others are a plot at Lekki Foreshore Estate Scheme, Foreshore Estate, Eti-Osa, LGA; an estate at 100 Cottonwood Coppell Texas Drive, Coppell, Texas, owned by Lipam Investment Services; land at 1 Bunmi Owulude Street, Lekki Phase 1, Lagos; and a property at 8 Bayo Kuku Road, Ikoyi, Lagos.

Similarly, on 22 June 2024, in another related case, a Federal High Court granted the final forfeiture of properties worth over N12.18 billion to the Federal Government. EFCC Chairman Olukoyede described the seizure and forfeiture as “one of the most significant in the nation’s history.”

The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) High Court, sitting in Apo, presided over by Justice Jude Onwuegbuzie, also struck out an application filed Godwin Emefiele, seeking to reclaim the 753 duplexes and apartments located at Plot 109, Cadastral Zone CO9, Lokogoma District, Abuja, and measuring 150,462.84 square metres, which had already been forfeited to the government.

Now who is going to save us as the new normal today is for corrupt people to go to court to defend the disproportional share of our resources they illegally cornered while those crusading for them daily assault our sensibilities mouthing patriotism, even when it is not lost on us that “patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.”