The moment I stepped out of church last Sunday and checked my phone, I saw a missed call from my friend, Mustapha Sanah (HRH Dalun-Lana Tapha Mahamadu II). He had left a terse message: “Prepare for inauguration.” I surmised that former President John Dramani Mahama and candidate of the main opposition National Democratic Coalition (NDC) had won the Ghanaian presidential election held last Saturday. In my conversation with Mahama at his Accra residence on Friday, 20th September, he predicted he would win the election and promised that I would be his guest at the inauguration. (https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/09/26/ghanas-future-beyond-jollof-rice/)

But before I could respond to Mustapha, breaking news flashed on my mobile phone that the 54-year-old father-and-son dictatorship in Syria had been upended by rebel forces. President Bashar al-Assad had reportedly fled Damascus, leaving his country in tatters. The fall of Assad is a testament to the fragility of power that is neither ennobling nor geared towards the common good. “As recently as 2010, Syria had a higher per capita income than many of its neighbours. Since 2011, well over half a million have died and several million displaced,” according to Nilanthan Niruthan, a defense analyst and researcher at Columbia University, United States. “The UNHCR estimated earlier this year that at least 90% of the Syrian population live under the poverty line, conditions which would have certainly worsened in the last week.”

While it remains to be seen how the disparate rebel groups in Syria will work together to govern the war-torn country, the consequences of toppling Assad are far-reaching. “The Arab Spring started in Tunisia (in 2011) but claimed scalps in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen,” argues Dr Michale Rubin, a director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and former Pentagon official. “Assad’s ouster and similar dynamics in some regional countries may soon claim scalps of other long-term dictators.” I hope that message will resonate on a continent where 91-year-old Paul Biya of Cameroon has been president for the last 42 years despite being marooned mostly in a Geneva, Switzerland hotel; 82-year-old Teodore Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea has been in power for the past 45 years; 80-year-old Yoweri Museveni has ruled Uganda for the past 38 years and Isaias Afwerki has been the first and only president of Eritrea since independence in 1993. The message will also serve many others, including Faure Gnassingbe of Togo who succeeded his father, Gnassingbe Eyadema two decades ago and appears to be plotting for his son to succeed him.

There is a way in which we can connect what happened in Ghana and Syria because both have to do with power and popular will. But for the benefit of Nigerian politicians who may have a superficial reading of Mahama’s victory, the first thing they must understand is the discipline of Ghana’s politicians and the strength of their political parties. The Independent National Electoral (INEC) Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu alluded to this earlier in the week. “Rarely in Ghana do you see people moving from one party to another with every general election,” Yakubu said. “There are people who have supported political parties for many years. So, whether the party is in power or opposition, they stick to the political party.”

That, of course, is not the situation in Nigeria where expediency rather than principle dictates our politics. For instance, many of the politicians who were either in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or Labour Party (LP) before the last election have moved to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). In a milieu in which public service has been reduced to ‘eating’, a politician can be a PDP member in the morning, decamp to the LP in the afternoon and by evening, he could be attending the APC meeting as the board of trustees’ chairman! In the past few days, five LP members and one PDP member in the House of Representatives have decamped to the APC. Quite naturally, the one who attracted the most attention is Donatus Matthew, the commercial motorcycle (Okada) rider who defeated a fourth-term member in Kaura Federal Constituency of Kaduna State. When you move from riding Okada to cruising around in a N160 Million SUV within a matter of weeks, what is the big deal about dumping the party on which you came to power, even if the law is not on your side?

The situation is different in Ghana which perhaps explains why the election of Mahama came as no surprise. The foundation was laid four years ago at the 2020 presidential election. Although Mahama (president between 2012 and 2016) lost the last election, his party (NCC) took 31 parliamentary seats from the ruling NPP. With both parties winning the same number of seats (137 each) resulting in a hung parliament, the lone independent candidate, Andrew Asiamah Amoako supported the NDC candidate, Alban Sumana Kingsford Bagbin, to emerge as speaker. If that was Nigeria, not only would the lone independent candidate pitch tent with the ruling party but many members from the opposition party would also have followed him to decamp. Besides, can anyone imagine a Nigerian President in a similar scenario allowing the lawmakers to pick their presiding officer without interference, as then re-elected President Nana Akufo-Ado did? If it were here, even the court would be deployed in a diabolic manner to give comfort to the ruling party!

In its statement on the Ghana election, the PDP said it portends an ominous omen for the APC at the coming 2027 poll. “The verdict of the people of Ghana in this presidential election is a signal to the APC that its days in office are numbered as the power of the people in Nigeria, just like in Ghana, will surely prevail, end APC’s oppressive rule and return Nigeria to the path of good governance, security, political stability and economic prosperity on the platform of the PDP in 2027,” according to a statement by the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba. But what the PDP must understand is that defeating an incumbent (ruling party) requires the creation of a strategic coalition in which personal ambitions would be sacrificed for group goals. Unfortunately, I have not seen any such effort from the opposition parties in Nigeria whose leaders seem not to have learnt any lesson from the last election won by the incumbent with just 37 percent of the total vote cast.

I spent my one-year Fellow’s programme at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University (during the 2010/2011 academic session) researching why it is so difficult for candidates of ruling parties to lose elections in Africa. In the process, I discovered that competitive presidential elections held on the continent in the preceding two decades resulted only in four percent defeat and 96 percent victory for the ruling parties. When I applied the principle to the rest of the world, I found the same trend. Ruling parties (and incumbents) were defeated at the polls in only seven percent of cases, winning 93 percent of the time. At the end, I was able to identify fractionalized opposition as the main factor in competitive elections.

As I was working on the paper, which I eventually titled “Divided opposition as boon to African incumbents” (https://scholarsprogram.wcfia.harvard.edu/publications/divided-opposition-boon-african-incumbents), Nigeria was preparing for the 2011 general election that had then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan standing against Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd). Feeble attempts to form an opposition platform around Buhari and (current president) Bola Tinubu had collapsed. So, when the election held and Buhari lost, I adapted my research paper to write an article which I titled “Divided They Run, United They Lose: How Fractionalized Opposition Strengthens African Incumbents”.

In the piece, I stated clearly that Buhari should not locate his defeat on rigging or the factor of incumbency but rather on his (Buhari’s) inability to build a credible opposition coalition. “While not advocating against the legal option already taken by a section of the Nigerian opposition, my contention is that it is more productive for them to begin to plan and organize for future elections. The perennial narrative that they are rigged out by the ruling party is becoming hollow,” I wrote for THISDAY in May 2011 at a period I was still in the United States. “In a milieu where political parties are not only weak but also lack financial wherewithal with no ideology binding members together, forging an electoral alliance is a long and arduous task. Waiting till weeks or days to the election to begin the process for such an alliance is therefore no more than an open invitation to a sure defeat.”

Four years later, my thesis proved accurate when the same opposition parties galvanised to form a special purpose vehicle (SPV) now called APC to win the 2015 presidential election. While the political system in Ghana is not perfect, they have erected certain moral guardrails for their politicians and public office holders that we have not succeeded in doing. I highlighted a few in my September column, ‘Ghana’s Future: Beyond Jollof Rice’, following my visit to the country. Like Nigeria, Ghana is a multiparty democracy. But their politicians have coalesced around two strong parties with distinct ideologies. Therefore, to achieve the kind of alternation that has strengthened democracy in Ghana, our politicians must muster the discipline to enthrone a two-party structure. In their own enlightened interest, Nigerian politicians must also works towards that if our democracy is to survive and thrive.

Meanwhile, there is a way in which we can connect the election of Mahama in Ghana to the toppling of Assad in Syria. The former is about popular democracy anchored on the will of the people and the latter, a fall-out of a charade in which citizens were conscripted to legitimise a compromised process that had nothing to do with the public good. We must learn from both countries. Without any doubt, the political system in Ghana is miles ahead of Nigeria’s. Our politicians are a mixed bag of cheap crooks and a few good people. That explains why violence and fraud have become part of the DNA of our politics while the industrialization of electoral disputes has become a revenue source for a corrupt arm of the judiciary. In Syria, the fate that ultimately befell Assad should serve as a cautionary tale for Nigeria regarding the consequence of a leadership living above and removed from the deprivation of the populace.

Just three years ago in May 2021, Assad (whose father ruled Syria for 30 years until his death in 2000) won a fourth term in office with 95.1% of the votes in a sham election that extended his rule till 2028. From being a maximum ruler with power of life and death over citizens, Bashar Al-Assad is now no more than a fugitive in Russia where he has been granted political asylum. Perhaps the signature lesson of his fall, for those in leadership positions who exhibit insensitivity and callous indifference to the plight of their people, is the transient nature of power. And nobody can forever evade accountability.

• You can follow me on my X (formerly Twitter) handle @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com   

…Dangote Refinery, Neptune Oil Announce their first export transaction of Refined Products to Cameroon

In a landmark move for regional energy integration, Dangote Refinery and Neptune Oil jointly announced the first-ever export of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest oil refinery, to Cameroon.

This milestone, resulting from a strategic collaboration between the two companies, underscores their commitment to strengthening economic ties between Nigeria and Cameroon while meeting the region's growing energy demands… Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President and CEO of the Dangote Group, stated: “This first export of PMS to Cameroon is a tangible demonstration of our vision for a united and energy-independent Africa. With this development, we are laying the foundation for a future where African resources are refined and exchanged within the continent for the benefit of our people.”

Antoine Ndzengue, Director and Owner of Neptune Oil emphasized: “This partnership with Dangote Refinery marks a turning point for Cameroon. By becoming the first importer of petroleum products from this world-class refinery, we are bolstering our country’s energy security and supporting local economic development. This initial supply, executed without international intermediaries, reflects our commitment to serving our markets independently and efficiently.”

The collaboration between Dangote Refinery and Neptune Oil does not end with this first export. Both companies are exploring new initiatives to establish a reliable supply chain that will help stabilize fuel prices and create new economic opportunities across the region.

A Major Regional Impact
For Nigeria, this export showcases Dangote Refinery’s ability to meet domestic needs and position itself as a key player in the regional energy market. It represents a significant step forward in accessing high-quality and locally sourced petroleum products for Cameroon.

About Dangote Refinery
Located in Lagos, Nigeria, Dangote Refinery is the largest single-train refinery in the world, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. It is a flagship project of the Dangote Group, which is dedicated to transforming Africa’s energy landscape.

About Neptune Oil
Neptune Oil is a leading energy company in Cameroon, committed to providing reliable and sustainable energy solutions. Through collaborations with international partners, Neptune Oil plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth in the region.

Syria, a nation rich in cultural and historical heritage, has long stood at the crossroads of civilization. Positioned at the heart of the Middle East, it is bordered by Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon. Often referred to as the "Cradle of Civilization," Syria is home to ancient cities such as Damascus and Aleppo, and the fertile lands of Mesopotamia, which have witnessed the rise and fall of empires for millennia.

 The modern Syrian state emerged from colonial rule in 1946 after the end of French mandate control. However, the country’s post-independence journey was marked by political instability, with military coups, economic struggles, and ongoing attempts to establish a stable political identity.

 In 1971, Hafez al-Assad, a former military officer and member of the Ba'ath Party, took control in a coup, laying the foundation for the Assad dynasty. His rule, which lasted until his death in 2000, was marked by authoritarianism and brutal repression. The regime relied heavily on surveillance, political oppression, and military force to maintain power. The Hama massacre of 1982, where thousands of people were killed to quell an Islamist uprising, became a chilling symbol of the regime's ruthlessness.

 For over fifty years, the Assad family ruled with an iron fist. Hafez al-Assad's grip on power was firm, creating a stable but oppressive order. His son, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded him in 2000, initially promising reforms, but ultimately continuing his father's legacy of corruption, authoritarianism, and cruelty. Despite their tight hold on power, the regime’s foundation began to crumble over time. The 2011 Arab Spring protests sparked the civil war that would tear the country apart.

 The Syrian conflict became a complex and multifaceted struggle, with various factions, foreign interventions, and shifting alliances. By 2024, the once-formidable Syrian military had been severely weakened by years of conflict, internal divisions, and a diminishing external support base. Bashar al-Assad’s main allies, Russia and Iran, were preoccupied with their own global challenges and began to scale back their support.

 On December 8, 2024, a historic event unfolded — the fall of Damascus marked the end of the Assad dynasty's rule over Syria. For decades, Damascus had been the epicenter of the regime's authority, but as the sun set on the ancient city, it symbolized the end of an era of oppression, bloodshed, and political control. The city fell to an unexpected lightning offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group. HTS, along with other rebel factions, had spent months quietly preparing, building alliances, and gathering resources. When the moment came, they struck swiftly and decisively, launching a surprise attack on Damascus.

 The Assad regime’s response was disjointed. The streets of Damascus, once a stronghold of loyalists, were eerily silent. The population, worn out by years of war and repression, had lost faith in the regime. Internal corruption and mismanagement, coupled with the overextension of military resources, had alienated much of the population. The critical support of Russia and Iran had eroded, further weakening the regime’s ability to maintain control.

 Syria had long been a proxy battleground for global and regional powers. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian and Hezbollah positions weakened Assad’s regional allies. Meanwhile, Russia, once Assad's most steadfast supporter, struggled to maintain its military presence due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Iran, also facing challenges of its own, continued to support Assad through Hezbollah and other militias, but its influence was diminishing.

 The United States, despite its opposition to extremist groups like HTS, provided indirect support to stabilize regions and pursue counter-terrorism objectives.

 Bashar al-Assad, once considered a potential reformist, became a symbol of everything wrong with Syrian governance. His violent crackdown on peaceful protests, including the use of chemical weapons, mass arrests, and brutal sieges, turned him from an aspiring leader into a ruthless dictator.

 By December 8, 2024, it was clear that Assad’s forces were no match for the rebel offensive. The Syrian army, exhausted by years of war, crumbled under pressure, and by early morning, Damascus was in rebel hands.

 The fall of the city sent shockwaves throughout Syria and the world. Bashar al-Assad, who had endured thirteen years of civil war and decades of autocratic rule, fled to Russia, which granted him political asylum. This marked the definitive end of the Assad regime, leaving Syria fractured and leaderless.

 With the regime’s collapse, Syria faced an uncertain future. Various factions and militias, once bitter enemies, may scramble to seize power. The fate of Syria’s diverse minorities, including Alawites, Kurds, and Christians, became a critical concern as the country entered a new phase of chaos and instability.

 The end of the Assad dynasty was not just the fall of a regime; it was the dismantling of a political system built on corruption, fear, and patronage. It marked the close of a dark chapter in Syria’s history, beginning with the quest for independence and continuing through decades of dictatorship, war, and destruction.

 As Syria begins to rebuild from the ashes of the Assad regime, the future remains uncertain. The people of Syria, after enduring years of suffering, now stand at a crossroads. The question is whether they can chart a new course, one that leads to peace, reconciliation, and a departure from the painful legacy of the past.

 Conclusion

 The fall of the Assad dynasty represents a transformative moment in Syria’s history. To avoid further descent into chaos and rebuild, Syria must focus on several key areas by establishing an inclusive political framework, representing all factions and minorities to ensure equitable power-sharing. International mediators, such as the UN, should facilitate dialogue and constitutional reforms. A ceasefire and disarmament monitored by international observers, humanitarian corridors must be opened to provide aid to displaced populations. A regional security dialogue must address concerns like arms smuggling and extremist infiltration to stabilize the region. Education and youth programs will be crucial in preventing radicalization, and strengthening institutions like the judiciary and security forces will help sustain the rule of law. Tribunals should be set up to address war crimes and human rights abuses, along with truth and reconciliation efforts to foster national healing. Economic revitalization through international investment for reconstruction and community-driven development should be pursued to help revive Syria’s economy.

Public Policy Analyst

Lake District, Alberta, Canada

“Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God” - Matthew 5:9.

Dogs eating dogs and birds gnawing at each other's innards is one way to describe the war of words between the Minister of Aviation, Festus Keyamo, and the Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), Tunji Bello. Both are important members of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration, occupying portfolios that impact on the day-to-day existence of Nigerians. For members of the upper and middle classes, Keyamo’s assignment is indispensable to their needs. With the state of insecurity in the country today, who wants to risk travelling by road, except those left with no other option?

 Last week, a professional colleague who helps out with my Abuja assignments narrowly escaped being kidnapped in broad daylight at Obajana on her way back to Abuja from Lagos. The passengers in the vehicle right ahead of her were not so lucky. They were whisked off into the bush by the kidnappers. She lost valuables because the kidnappers took time to ransack her vehicle. But we were all thankful unto God that none of the kidnappers’ bullets hit her - and also because, today, I am not reduced to soliciting for help in this column to pay God-knows-how-much ransom money! All because of the high cost of air travel which many Nigerians can no longer afford!

This yuletide period is when more misery is piled upon hapless Nigerians on all fronts, the airlines inclusive. According to reports, air travel has witnessed a 300 percent hike, especially on South-South and South-East routes. Why? Air Peace, which is at the centre of the spat between the Aviation ministry and the FCCPC, is, again, said to be at the centre of the astronomical hike that defies all logic. 

Air Peace flight from Lagos to Asaba in Delta State reportedly moved from N97,400 as of December 5, 2024 to N287, 800 by December 18; Abuja to Asaba (N95,400 on December 5 to N285, 800 on December 16); Abuja to Benin (N95,000 to N285,800 by December 16); Lagos to Port Harcourt or Abuja to Port Harcourt (N95,400 to N285, 800) ; Lagos to Anambra (N114,400 as of December 6 to N381 by December 17); Abuja to Anambra (N95,000 as of December 5 to N285,800 by December 23). and so on and so forth! 

The only logical reason I can think of is that some airlines behave like the typical Lagos “Danfo” and “Yellow buses”: During rush hours, those ones mindlessly hike transport fares to fleece hapless Nigerians! December is “rush hours” for travellers moving from one place to the other to celebrate Christmas and New Year but should airlines flying international routes also display the “Bolekaja” mentality of Lagos touts and “agberos”?  

Could this be the reason, then, why the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agents (NANTA) has not only thrown its weight behind the FCCPC on this matter but also asked that the FCCPC investigation be extended to other airlines in the country?      

Keyamo says he is working assiduously to reposition the aviation industry to address the problem of air travel that has become the exclusive preserve of the rich. He adds that his efforts are already yielding the desired fruits and that, very soon, the cost of tickets will become affordable once again to the average Nigerian. That should be cheery news to anyone who has experienced the horror that long-distance travel especially has become on our roads.

 It used to be fun travelling long distances by road, be it by day or even at night. I for one loved the cool of the night to travel. Not again! Travelling during the day also had its own attractions: what with many stops on the way availing travellers the opportunity to alight from the vehicle, stretch their legs, and unwind! Sight-seeing the splendid and magnificent geography of the country was fun enough on its own. As you pass villages and towns one after the other, the flora and faunas, and the cultural heritage of the diverse peoples that make up the country come into view. For many, not any more! 

So, tackling insecurity and making the road safe for travel once again is a task that must be done. Simultaneously, making air travel affordable must also not be treated with levity. Keyamo says that is what he has been working hard at - and I salute his efforts!

At the other end, Tunji Bello, the FCCPC boss, is worried that Nigerians are being cheated and taken advantage of by Shylock businessmen and women. In this way, the FCCPC investigation is not limited to Air Peace or the aviatIon sector alone but also reportedly captures the banking and communications sectors; the driving force being the avalanche of complaints by members of the public.

 In the short period that he has been in the FCCPC saddle, Tunji has left no one in doubt that he has listening ears and sympathetic heart to the moanings and cries of suffering Nigerians. Hence, months ago, he issued an ultimatum to the market men and women and other traders to step down prices or face the music. The ultimatum may not have totally reversed the trend of high costs of foodstuffs but it gave notice that the masses now have a Daniel come to judgment. 

How can anyone forget Tunji and FCCPC’s intervention weeks ago when ubiquitous - I almost said “iniquitous”! - PHCN ordered Nigerians to shell out hundreds of thousands of Naira to buy and install new meters within the ultimatum of a few weeks? It was Tunji and the FCCPC that said an emphatic “No”, thus saving hapless Nigerians another 419 scheme that would have bored gaping holes in people’s pockets in these austere times and very close to Christmas and New Year!

These apart, Tunji and Keyamo are established and long-standing members of the “Aluta” and “Progressives” fraternity. While I was at the University of Ibadan for my NYSC and M. Sc class, I watched Tunji campaign to become the vice-president of the “Great Uite” Student Union. His strident “aluta” message - and handsome looks, to boot - won the election for him. Our girls love mobilising en-masse and voting for handsome duds at Student Union elections! 

Ask any of Tunji’s professional colleagues as journalists and they will tell you that he is one of the most approachable, responsible, and responsive of their colleagues that they can vouch for anytime, anyday. His conscience - and a heart for others - I dare to say, is not seared. Keyamo’s CV is no less intimidating! He has been a human rights activist for decades, fighting the cause of the marginalized and oppressed and standing on the side of the people - and on some occasions that I know, free of charge or pro bono, as the lawyers call it. 

I confess that Tunji and Keyamo are my comrades and friends. So, I don't want them to fight; especially when they are both engaged in a good cause but only coming in from different angles. Sheathe the sword, brothers, and bridge the communication gap! Stop dissipating energy on trifles! There is still much work to be done.   

For Tunji and the FCCPC, there are too many sharp practices out there by businesses that there is hardly any department where the people get value again for money. Quality and quantity have deliberately been compromised to cut production costs and maximise profit. If you buy a whole box of matches, you will be lucky if a few catch fire when you strike them. A tea bag that could make a jug of tea for a family of six in the past can hardly make one tea cup these days. How about a tin of milk? If you think it is only the established businesses that cheat consumers, try and buy a bunch of cooked walnuts in traffic. You will be lucky if half of the eight pieces in a pack are edible! 

The task before Keyamo is no less arduous. Thank God aircraft are not dropping from the sky these days like birds as they once did in this country. Keyamo has been proactive, not waiting for the deed to be done before acting, like he once told me when I confronted him with allegations that he acted prematurely to shut down Dana Air after the near mishap of its plane. But it will not amuse the minister to learn that eight months after and despite his intervention, Dana has yet to make my refunds despite repeated demands!

This is the kind of impunity, I think, that Tunji and the FCCPC are miffed about and which, I am sure, Keyamo himself can not be comfortable with. Like I have said repeatedly, there must be consequences for bad behaviour; otherwise, no progress will be made and this country will continue to move in cycles. In these challenging economic times, if I get my refunds from Dana, it will at least buy half-bag of rice, chicken and soft drinks for me and my family to celebrate Christmas and New Year with!

I read with much appreciation and delight Festus Adebayo’s column on Abati and Davido as Cockroaches. 

I do not know how they did it but the Nigerian Tribune is justifying its longevity by giving our country the gift of great columnists. Every week I read with a sense of satisfaction these Tribune Columnists and feel grateful that the grand era of the Newspaper column has yet to evaporate. Peter Pan, Sad Sam, Ayekoto etc. brought light to darkness. The Tribune columnists flood this present darkness with exhilaration like the experience of the floodlights of Liberty Stadium brought us as children in the 1960s.

But I respond to Festus Adebayo’s thoughtfulness in that piece not as a once upon a time columnist myself but as a worried citizen on the one hand and as a social scientist concerned about the State in post colonial Africa, especially about how the nature of that state prolongs the misery of the poor and vulnerable, and how the world views Africa.

Identity politics and ethnic baiting captured in the metaphors of Cockroaches and ‘cut down the tall trees’ in the run up to Rwanda’s genocide are in my view the result of leadership failure. Why did America become a melting pot and divisive politics make Africa poster child state failure? One Ronald Reagan video tells that story well.

The so called Igbo/Yoruba divide building up, as Adebayo points out, with possibilities of terrible foreboding yet fully appreciated by their champions, is a classic example. I would like to speak to that as one who has been a cockroach in many seasons.

For one born in Kaduna, baptized in Jos, started school in Kano, witnessed the pogrom in Gusau in 1966, and part of the civil war, including the civilian massacre in Asaba in 1967 and 1968, I first got sensitive to the cockroach syndrome as an undergraduate at UNN in 1973/74. My horrific war experience did not raise my sensitivity as much the experience of 1974. May be becoming more mature made that so. 

Seeing all of the other four universities in Nigeria at the time shut down from protests on the anniversary of the Adepeju killing by police at UI, I became part of a group that challenge the SUG calling for action. A few students understandably distraught that they lost three years while colleagues at Unilag, UI, Ife and ABU carried on with their studies, shouted at me ‘you Yoruba boy go and read your book’. I was not a Yoruba boy but a citizen who placed a premium on human solidarity. 

Even with the wounds of the civil war then so fresh the typecasting of people on ethnic lines was nowhere as horrible as it is today. Surely my group of friends which included people like Folu Ayeni the 1974 valedictorian at UNN who many years later founded Tantalizers with his wife Bose, my classmate from High School in Loyola College Ibadan, Gbenga Sadipe, Idiat Adesanya, Ronke Ashaye and even current NAFDAC DG Prof Adeyeye. Did that make me Yoruba. Clearly not. But the experience points to the danger of typecasting people.

Twenty years later the elections of June 12 got annulled. With no thought to the ethnicity of Chief MKO Abiola I rallied professionals with an OpEd piece: We must say Never Again. Public court records suggest I survived two assassination attempts for the effort of the Concerned Professionals. 

Years later I was chatting with a young CEO of a multinational from my part of the country on an unrelated subject when he remarked that he was a final year student in the University when the CP protests took place. He said he was put off by the fact that of the 39 of us that signed a published petition only myself and two or three others were not Yorubas. I had no recollection of how many signed the petition nor had I ever given thought to the ethnicity mix of the protestors. 

Then my classmate from Nsukka Femi Kusa wrote a vitriolic bashing of Igbos. I responded with an expression of my surprise at what I thought was uncharitable ethnic bashing and baiting. That alarmed me to the nature of the poison being concocted.

From my work in political economy I have celebrated what American political scientists Robert Melson and Howard Wolpe called competitive communalism in which ethnic nationality groups competed on who would most bring progress to their regions at the birth of of self government in Nigeria.

It required political leadership to continue to harvest the benefits of Federalism and the competition doctrine without spilling into debilitating dislike for people of other ethnic nationality groups. 

I became acutely sensitive to the fact that political actors were exploiting the emotions of identity politics. This was getting so divisive I feared it would make for a narrative that would make Nigeria unattractive for investment for both Nigerians of some disposition to risk and foreigners.

Opportunities to do something about my concerns kept coming. 

When the Oba of Lagos was said to threaten to drown Igbos if they did not act a certain way and opinions went wild I called for calm as the Oba had no tools to effect such a threat but was probably joking as he often did. 

A few Igbo business men said to me that my intervention calmed nerves and nipped over reaction in the bud. On a visit to the Oba in the palace his daughter reminded him how she told him I saved the day.

Then the Reverend Ladi Thompson came to see me to proselytize his initiative on bringing Igbo and Yoruba elite together to discuss and shake hands. I told him I was chair of the board of trustees of Nzuko Umunna which had organized the Handshake across the Niger summit which brought many Yoruba leaders to Enugu for the first time. His ideas were in tandem and music to my ears. 

I accepted Thompson’s invitation to host the YIGBA meeting at my home in Lagos. And the heavy weights came. From the Yoruba side they included Ptof Akintoye, former Secretary of UPN, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Dr Christopher Kolade and dozens of other Yoruba prominent people. From the Igbo side came past and future presidents of Ohaneze like Prof Joe Irukwu and Prof George Obiozor, General Ike Nwachukwu and dozens more.

Prof Akitoye set the tone of the conversation by recalling a visit to Chief Obafemi Awolowo just before he passed. He said Chief Awolowo lamented that he did not manage to fix the Yoruba/Igbo rift and that he then charged both him and Chief Olaninwu Ajayi to make that bridging project top priority.

On my part I invited the Distiguished submitters to try reading Jared Diamond on the evolution of human civilization and migration in man’s birth place in Africa. I assured them they would find the Igbos and Yorubas were close cousins and words like those which identify body parts, as language developed, before some migrated further East on the West African coastline would be similar. So the fact that imi in Igbo is imu in Yoruba, enu in Yoruba is onu in Igbo and eti is nti should make these cousins better behave towards each other.

So how did we get here that me, the ‘Yoruba boy’ of yesterday receives a storm of insults from people who have either not read what I have written or interpreted every word from the prism of their bias because they identify me as Igbo.

When I listened to a senior US diplomat who monitored the elections in Lagos in March of 2023 recount his observations and being traumatized by it, two emotions flowed through. One was to think of Dr Michael Okpara and the details of his support for Adegbenro and company during the elections in Western Region and of my own half a century of bridging effort. I decided my time of being verged on waste. All these because a few desire power no matter the cost for sustained social advance, the peace of a people and history’s judgement.

I realize this is not a uniquely Nigerian problem. Jurgen Habermas finds democracy and modernity to converge around rational public conversation but the philosopher of the public sphere can probably see how politicians play emotion in many countries, giving people like Joshua Greene at the Center for Moral Cognition at Harvard much to study about ‘ emotion, reason and the gap between us and them.

Last month I participated in part of the Rwanda Genocide conference at California State University in Sacramento. As I bantered with the Atorney- General of Rwanda I could not but wonder why politicians have not thought it proper to call off the people they have unleashed on social media to spread hate.

The cost may prove devastating for all. The book I am currently working on looks at How politicians underdeveloped Africa. It is to put in perspective Walter Rodney’s How Europe Underdeveloped Africa and not to question the merits of his thesis. Divisive plays on emotion constitute one way the politicians keep us poor. Whether they are conscious of it or not is another matter. 

As a cockroach baited from both sides through many seasons of angst I can feel the looming danger.

Patrick Okedinachi Utomi, is a Political Economist and founder of the Centre for Values in Leadership

The entertainment industry in 2024 recorded a series of tragic events, and some celebrities narrowly escaped death, which was most recorded in Nollywood.

In this article, Naija News highlights some celebrities who survived ghastly accidents and recounted the experience on their social media pages.

1. Soso Soberekon: On January 4, the music executive survived a ghastly car accident at Okada University, Edo state, which left his car in bad shape inside the bush.

Due to the intensity of the accident, Sosoberekon’s airbags all burst, and some eyewitnesses claim that the car somersaulted before hitting a tree in a nearby bush.

2. BBNaija Chizzy: In a post via Instagram in January, Big Brother Naija star, Chizzy Francis, revealed that he survived a ghastly car accident.

Recounting his experience, the reality TV star stated that the incident was indeed a fatal one and appreciated God for giving him a second chance.

3. Shallopopi and Israel DMW: In Febuary, Davido’s logistics manager, Israel DMW, and singer, Shallipopi, were involved in a car accident in Abuja.

In an Instagram post, Israel said the crash happened while returning from Shallipopi’s concert in Abuja.

He expressed gratitude to God that neither he nor Shallipopi sustained any injury in the incident.

4. Phyna: Winner of the Big Brother Naija, ‘Level Up’ edition, Josephine Otabor, popularly known as Phyna, escaped a kidnapper’s attack in Delta State.

The reality star narrated her experience via social media, revealing how the kidnappers hijacked four cars in front of the vehicle she rode in and abducted the occupants.

5. Zicsaloma: In November, Nigerian skit maker Aloma Isaac Junior, better known as Zicsaloma, expressed gratitude to God in a social media post after he and his team narrowly escaped a disastrous accident at his house.

Zicsaloma shared a video of the aftermath of how a plaster of Paris (POP) ceiling collapsed in his sitting room.

The skit maker stated that no one was injured except for the ceiling fan, which was damaged, adding that one should always get good artisans for building construction.

6. Omotola Jalade-Ekeinde: A few weeks ago, veteran Nollywood actress, Omotola Jalade-Ekeinde expressed appreciation to God after serving a life-threatening health scare.

In a post via her Instagram page, the movie star recounted the experience of undergoing emergency surgery after enduring severe back and chest pain, persistent vomiting, and debilitating stomach discomfort.

While describing her recovery process as a ‘fight for her life’, Omotola reflected on the importance of gratitude and the fragility of life, urging his fans and followers to join her in thanksgiving to God.

[NaijaNews]

The Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has directed its members to strictly operate within the business hours of 8 am to 6 pm or face disciplinary actions.

This follows an earlier important directive issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Security Agency (NSA) to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators that their operational business hours must be between 8 am and 6 pm.

This disclosure is contained in a memo titled, ‘CBN’s Directive On Opening and Closing Hours of Business’ issued by ABCON to its members on Tuesday, December 10, 2024, and seen by Nairametrics.

The order by the CBN may not be unconnected by its efforts to address some of the malpractices at the retail end of the forex market and create a transparent and well-regulated system.

Non-compliance will lead to penalties

While stating that the directive is with immediate effect, ABCON in its memo, warned its members that any deviation from these stipulated operating hours will result in sanctions.

• It also advised all licensed BDCs operating in airports across the country to abide by the regulations of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) on business hours.

The memo from ABCON read, ‘’We wish to bring to your attention on an important directive issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Security Agency (NSA) of the Directive that all licensed Bureaux de Change (BDC) must operate strictly within the operational business hours of 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM, Nigerian time.

‘’This directive is effective immediately, and any deviation from these stipulated operating hours will result in penalties. It is crucial that all members comply with this new regulation to avoid any punitive measures.

‘’The BDCs operating in all airports are advised to abide by the NCAA regulations on Business hours.

‘’We appreciate your prompt attention to this matter and expect full adherence to ensure smooth and compliant operations across all BDCs. Thank you for your cooperation.’’

What you should know

The CBN released revised guidelines for the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), signaling a major shake-up in the country’s FX operations.

• The updates, contained in a circular dated November 29, 2024, consolidate all FX windows, redefine the roles of market participants, and introduce stricter compliance and transparency measures.
• This latest move is part of the apex bank’s efforts to address long-standing inefficiencies in the FX market while creating a transparent, well-regulated system.
• A major focus of the revised guidelines requires that all FX transactions be priced through the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), a centralized platform that will also publish daily FX rates for public access.

Also, in the revised CBN guidelines, licensed BDC operators are allowed to purchase foreign exchange directly from authorized dealers, subject to a monthly cap set by the apex bank.

And for the BDCs, these changes mean more access to FX and stricter oversight.

[Nairameterics]

The United States Embassy has urged visa applicants with interviews scheduled after January 1, 2025, to make at least two visits to the Consulate General in Lagos as part of their immigration visa process.

The US Embassy announced this directive in a post on its X (formerly Twitter) page on Tuesday.

It reads: “For applicants with interviews scheduled after January 1, 2025, you are required to visit the Consulate General in Lagos at least twice during the immigrant visa process.

“This new process is designed to help you prepare for your visa interview and to prevent significant delays in processing your immigrant visa.”

According to information on the embassy’s website, the first visit will include an “In-Person Document Review” with a consular officer.

“This review ensures that applicants are prepared for their visa interviews. The review allows applicants to retrieve any missing documents ahead of their visa interviews, helping to avoid delays in application processing,” the embassy explained.

“The second interview, on the other hand, is with a Consular Officer. The date for this interview will be scheduled for applicants by the National Visa Center (NVC).

“If you do not complete the In-Person Document Review before your visa interview, you will be required to reschedule your appointment.”

The embassy stated that these changes are intended to improve efficiency and minimize delays caused by incomplete documentation.

[Vanguard]

The Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) has denied reports suggesting it is opposing President Bola Tinubu’s proposed tax reform bills, describing the claims as “grossly misleading, false and malicious.”

RMAFC Chairman Mohammed Bello Shehu said that the commission is fully engaged in the reform process and is aligned with President Tinubu’s vision for an equitable and sustainable fiscal framework.

He also noted the importance of the proposed tax reform bills in addressing Nigeria’s fiscal challenges.

“We applaud President Tinubu’s strong commitment to repositioning Nigeria’s revenue base through bold initiatives. The proposed tax reform bills are a significant step towards integrating untapped revenue sources, enhancing Nigeria’s revenue-to-GDP ratio, and positioning the country favourably among nations with high fiscal performance,” Shehu said during a press briefing in Abuja on Tuesday.

Shehu also spoke on concerns surrounding Value Added Tax (VAT) allocation and derivation and assured Nigerians of the Commission’s proactive involvement in ensuring that global best practices guide the reform process.

“As a responsible and patriotic institution, we have submitted a comprehensive memorandum that emphasises adherence to global best practices. This position aligns seamlessly with Mr. President’s vision,” he added.

Shehu condemned the spread of misinformation, emphasizing that the RMAFC has never opposed the bills but has instead provided professional advice to support their refinement.
He called on Nigerians to disregard baseless reports and urged the media to uphold ethical standards in their reportage.

“It is disheartening to note that, despite our explicit support for the proposed legislation, some individuals have chosen to peddle falsehoods for reasons best known to them,” he said.

“These inaccurate statements can undermine the ongoing efforts of patriotic Nigerians tirelessly working to support the President’s vision for the country.”

The Chairman further explained that the proposed tax reform bills are currently undergoing consultations, with inputs being sought from expert bodies.

He cautioned against misinterpretation or misrepresentation of professional advice during this process.

“The Commission is a critical stakeholder in Nigeria’s fiscal framework, and we take our responsibility to provide expert advice seriously. We have been working closely with the National Assembly to ensure the proposed legislation is robust, effective, and aligned with global best practices,” he said.

He noted that the proposed bills aim to promote fiscal equity, reduce tax evasion, and increase revenue generation—objectives that align with the RMAFC’s mandate.

However, he acknowledged concerns about potential impacts on businesses and individuals, assuring stakeholders that the Commission remains committed to addressing these through constructive engagement.

Shehu stressed the importance of relying on factual information to avoid unnecessary controversies and called on all Nigerians to support the president’s bold fiscal reforms.

“At this critical juncture, the President needs the support of all Nigerians. Let us work together to support his vision for a more prosperous Nigeria,” he noted.

[Guardian]

The House of Representatives has expressed concern over the ongoing cash crunch in commercial banks across the country, calling on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to address the situation, which has disrupted economic activities and imposed significant hardship on citizens.

The call by the House is coming on the heels of the directive by Vice President Kashim Shettima to the CBN and commercial banks in the country to swiftly resolve issues of cash scarcity and arbitrary charges by point-of-sale (POS) operators.

The CBN last week issued a directive mandating Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) to prioritise efficient cash disbursement to customers both over the counter and through Automated Teller Machines (ATMs).

The directive, which took effect on December 1, 2024, forms part of the apex bank’s continued efforts to enhance currency circulation and address cash shortages across the nation.

In a motion brought under Matters of Urgent Public Importance by Hon. Uguru Emmanuel, the House highlighted the economic and social implications of the cash scarcity, which has left many Nigerians unable to access funds even for basic needs.

Hon. Emmanuel noted that while economic growth relies heavily on consumer spending and business investment, the persistent cash shortage has become a major impediment to these activities.

The lawmaker recalled that the CBN, in its policy directive of December 21, 2022, set cash withdrawal limits of N500,000 for individuals and N5 million for corporate entities.

However, he observed that commercial banks have largely disregarded this policy, often limiting cash withdrawals to as little as N10,000 or nothing at all.

He further raised alarm over the apparent disconnect between commercial banks and Point of Sale (POS) operators, who seem to have unlimited access to cash, often selling it at exorbitant rates.

The lawmaker warned that unless the CBN takes immediate action, the situation could worsen, especially with the approach of the festive season, leaving businesses frustrated and citizens plunged into deeper economic hardship.

In its resolution, the House mandated the Committee on Banking Regulations to investigate the cash crunch in commercial banks and report back within one week.

The House directed the CBN to urgently address the cash scarcity if it is not responsible for the shortage.

Our correspondents report that Nigerians are increasingly finding it difficult to get naira notes for their daily transactions.

The situation is more severe in rural communities, where access to banks and other financial transaction platforms is limited.

In towns and cities, Point of Sale (POS) operators have gone overboard by charging customers more than expected to give them naira notes.

“I paid N500 to get N10, 000 at the Jabi Park,” said Jennifer Samuel, a civil servant.

“I need cash to pay for transportation to Mararaba because the taxi drivers don’t accept transfer, but it is not fair for me to pay N500 just to get N10, 000,” she said.

Abdulmumini Ibrahim, a businessman, said he paid N800 to POS operator in order to collect N20, 000 cash.

“It is true that cashless society is the way forward for any society that wants to grow but Nigeria is not ripe for that.

“Government must invest in infrastructure in order to convince people to accept the new norm. For now, they should make more cash available,” he said.

Apex bank tightens noose on fintechs

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has fined two of the country’s most prominent unicorns, Moniepoint and OPay N1 billion each in the second quarter of 2024, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told TechCabal.

The sources also confirmed that several other fintech companies were penalised, but that the two firms were the hardest hit, following a routine CBN audit of the fintech sector, which revealed compliance issues.

Daily Trust could not independently verify the claim despite many efforts.

When contacted, OPay said no such levy has been imposed on it.

Two sources familiar with the development told TechCabal that at least four other fintech companies were similarly penalised, though the details of these fines remain unknown.

The CBN has increasingly relied on fines to enforce regulatory compliance.

In 2023, Nigerian banks paid a combined N678 million in penalties. In October 2024, the CBN and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) imposed a N1.5 billion fine on ten commercial banks, including Zenith and GTBank, for various infractions in the first half of the year.

Until recently, Nigeria’s rapidly growing fintech sector largely operated without CBN interference. However, the rapid expansion of fintechs like OPay and Moniepoint, which now serve millions of users, has invited greater scrutiny.

OPay, for instance, claims a customer base of around 40 million, while Moniepoint, which processed N5.2 billion transactions in 2023, does not disclose specific customer numbers but is similarly large.

According to the report by TechCabal, beyond licensing, the CBN has also expressed concerns about the fintechs’ compliance with Know Your Customer (KYC) processes.

In April 2024, the central bank imposed a two-month ban on customer onboarding for several fintech companies, including Kuda Bank and Palmpay, citing non-compliance with KYC standards. The ban forced fintechs to overhaul their onboarding procedures and commit to improving their compliance measures.

In a statement to TechCabal, OPay said: “We categorically refute the claims that OPay Digital Services was fined by the Central Bank of Nigeria to the tune of N1 billion for regulatory infractions. These claims are entirely false.”

When Daily Trust reached out to the North-east Regional Manager of Moniepoint, Alamin Jamil, he said: “I have seen the story on some online platform and it appears false to me. I don’t have all the details but I don’t think it is true.”

He promised to get back to our reporter once he gets the true position of things.

However, a senior management source with Moniepoint who prefers anonymity confirmed the fine but was uncertain about the actual amount.

CBN’s Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi Ali, could not be reached for comment as of press time.

[DailyTrust]