
OTHERS' VIEWS
[OPINION] The future of cryptocurrency regulation in Nigeria: Opportunities and challenges - Olufemi Ariyo
AdminCryptocurrency has been steadily gaining ground in Nigeria, making it one of the top adopters of digital currencies in Africa. Despite the ongoing regulatory uncertainties, Nigerians have increasingly turned to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins to navigate economic challenges, protect their savings from inflation, and explore alternative financial options. With this surge in adoption, the conversation around regulation has become more urgent, as the country looks for ways to harness the benefits of digital currencies while ensuring security and stability in the market.
Nigeria’s relationship with cryptocurrency has been a turbulent one, marked by notable regulatory shifts that have created uncertainty for businesses and investors. In 2021, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued a controversial directive that prohibited banks and other financial institutions from facilitating transactions involving cryptocurrencies. This decision sent shockwaves throughout Nigeria’s growing crypto community, as it was seen as a direct blow to the ecosystem, particularly to fintech startups and individual traders who relied on traditional financial channels to convert and transact in digital currencies. The CBN’s ban was initially justified on the grounds of consumer protection and financial stability, with concerns about fraud, money laundering, and the volatility of cryptocurrencies. This action was particularly major in a country like Nigeria, where a growing number of young tech enthusiasts and traders were embracing digital currencies as alternatives to the traditional banking system, which many Nigerians have long distrusted due to issues of accessibility, high fees, and inflation.
Despite the CBN’s efforts to curb crypto adoption, the demand for digital currencies in Nigeria remained robust, underscoring the resilience of the market and the strength of local demand. In the face of regulatory restrictions, Nigerians turned to peer-to-peer (P2P) trading platforms to continue buying, selling, and exchanging cryptocurrencies. Platforms like Paxful and Binance P2P became more popular, allowing traders to directly engage with one another without the need for traditional banks or financial intermediaries. These P2P platforms thrived in the absence of centralised financial services, allowing Nigerians to sidestep the limitations imposed by the CBN while still accessing the benefits of cryptocurrencies. This shift to decentralised exchanges and informal networks also illustrated the innovative spirit within Nigeria’s tech community, as people found creative ways to overcome regulatory bpttlenecks. The thriving P2P market demonstrated that demand for cryptocurrencies was not merely a passing trend, but an essential part of Nigeria’s financial landscape, driven by a mix of factors, including remittances, hedge against inflation, and access to global markets.
As we entered 2023, the regulatory landscape started to shift in a more optimistic direction. There has been a noticeable change in tone from Nigerian regulators, particularly with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has begun to show more interest in creating a regulatory framework that acknowledges the potential benefits of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Unlike the CBN’s more restrictive stance, the SEC’s focus has been on ensuring that digital assets are properly regulated while fostering innovation and investor protection. For example, in 2022, the SEC began providing clearer guidelines on the regulation of stablecoins and security tokens, signalling an intention to bring these assets into a formal regulatory structure. Furthermore, the Nigerian government had also expressed interest in developing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), known as the eNaira, which could work in tandem with cryptocurrency regulations to provide a more stable, government-backed alternative to digital currencies. This shift towards a more structured regulatory approach, while still in the early stages, signals a move towards striking a balance between protecting consumers and encouraging the growth of blockchain and cryptocurrency innovations in Nigeria. Such changes where well deployed could help position Nigeria as a leader in the African crypto space, providing the regulatory clarity that both investors and entrepreneurs need to navigate the rapidly changing digital economy.
Opportunities for Nigeria in Cryptocurrency Regulation
A clear and comprehensive regulatory framework presents numerous opportunities for Nigeria’s burgeoning cryptocurrency market. Here are some of the key benefits:
- Financial Inclusion
Nigeria’s financial access gap remains one of the most pressing hurdles in its economic landscape. With over 50 million adults (about a fifth of population) in the country lacking access to formal banking services, a major portion of the population is excluded from traditional financial systems. This exclusion is particularly pronounced in rural areas where physical banks are scarce, and many Nigerians are unable to meet the requirements to open a traditional bank account due to lack of documentation or minimum balance requirements. Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies offer an opportunity to bridge this gap by offering a decentralised alternative to traditional banking. Through blockchain, Nigerians can access peer-to-peer (P2P) financial services, participate in the global economy, and store value without the need for a centralised financial institution. This is particularly beneficial for the unbanked population, as it allows them to send and receive money, invest, and build wealth without needing access to a bank branch. By adequately regulating the cryptocurrency sector, Nigeria can create a more accessible, secure, and inclusive financial ecosystem that enables millions of Nigerians to engage in financial activities that were once out of reach.
A well regulated cryptocurrency market can also bring much-needed stability and confidence to Nigeria’s financial ecosystem, especially in the context of inflation and currency devaluation. The Nigerian Naira has experienced major volatility in recent years, leading many Nigerians to seek alternative stores of value to protect their wealth. Stablecoins, digital currencies pegged to the value of assets like the US dollar, present a viable solution to this problem. These digital assets offer a relatively stable store of value, shielding users from the rapid depreciation of the Naira. By enabling access to stablecoins in a regulated environment, Nigeria could provide its citizens with a hedge against inflation, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Moreover, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum could offer investment opportunities for individuals who might not have the means to access traditional investment vehicles, like stocks or bonds. With clear regulations in place, these digital assets would not only increase financial literacy and awareness but also allow Nigerians to store, transfer, and transact in a more secure, transparent, and accessible manner, contributing to broader financial inclusion. Thus, cryptocurrency could move from a speculative asset into a vital tool for financial empowerment, especially for underserved and marginalised communities in Nigeria.
- Legal Clarity for Businesses and Investors
This represents one of the most pressing hurdles for crypto-related businesses in Nigeria. This lack of clarity surrounds the operation of digital assets and blockchain technology. Without a clear regulatory framework, entrepreneurs and businesses in the cryptocurrency space are often left in a legal grey area, unsure of their obligations, liabilities, and the potential risks they face. This uncertainty stifles innovation and discourages both local and foreign investment in the sector. For instance, the United States has created a relatively clear regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, with agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) providing specific guidelines on how digital assets should be classified and taxed. This legal clarity has promoted a thriving crypto ecosystem, where businesses are able to operate with greater confidence, leading to the creation of large-scale companies like Coinbase and Ripple. In contrast, Nigeria’s lack of such clarity has forced many businesses to operate in a legal limbo, which hinders growth and limits the potential for technological advancements. By creating a comprehensive regulatory framework, the Nigerian government could signal to entrepreneurs and investors that the country is serious about encouraging a competitive and innovative crypto market, thus attracting global investors and giving local businesses the stability they need to scale and succeed.
For investors, the lack of clear regulation in Nigeria creates major risks, as there is no legal protection in place to ensure the legitimacy of projects or mitigate the threat of fraud and scams. The rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), Security Token Offerings (STOs), and the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market has brought new investment opportunities but also increased the potential for malicious actors to exploit inexperienced investors. China and Singapore have taken proactive steps to regulate ICOs and other digital assets, with Singapore’s Monetary Authority introducing clear rules around token offerings, investor protections, and anti-money laundering (AML) measures (Nigeria and Africa can learn from them). This has led to a stable environment for investors and a thriving cryptocurrency market, with projects such as Chainlink and Aave operating successfully in Singapore. A similar regulatory approach in Nigeria would help reduce the risks associated with Ponzi schemes, pump-and-dump schemes, and unregistered projects, which have been rampant in many emerging markets due to the lack of oversight. Clear regulations would instill confidence among investors, knowing that their investments are being protected by legal frameworks and that they can pursue legal recourse in cases of fraud or misconduct. Additionally, a regulated environment would encourage institutional investment in digital assets, further legitimising Nigeria’s crypto market and driving long-term growth.
- Government Revenue through Taxation
Blockchain and cryptocurrency have the potential to be lucrative sources of government revenue, especially in a country like Nigeria, where the government is constantly seeking innovative ways to diversify income streams and reduce dependence on oil revenues. By instituting a clear regulatory framework for the crypto sector, the Nigerian government could impose taxes on crypto transactions, capital gains, and other related activities, similar to the approaches adopted by many developed nations. For instance, Germany treats Bitcoin as a private asset and taxes capital gains on crypto holdings, providing the government with additional revenue while encouraging long-term investment in digital assets. Similarly, in the United States, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) taxes cryptocurrency transactions as property, and this has contributed to a notable stream of revenue for federal and state governments. The introduction of taxes on crypto activities in Nigeria could help the government capture a portion of the rapidly expanding market while also formalising the sector, leading to a more transparent and stable environment. Given the high volume of crypto trading in Nigeria (some companies even pay their staff salaries using cryptos, as they accept crypto from investors), particularly in peer-to-peer markets, a well-structured tax regime could unlock substantial funds to finance public services, infrastructure, and development projects, boosting national economic growth.
Moreover, by adopting a pro-crypto regulatory framework, Nigeria could position itself as a regional hub for cryptocurrency and blockchain innovation in Africa. The continent is seeing an influx of global blockchain firms, as countries like Malta, Switzerland, and Singapore have attracted digital asset companies with favourable tax laws and regulatory clarity. Nigeria has the potential to tap into this growing market, which could lead to the establishment of new blockchain startups, fintech companies, and crypto exchanges in the country. For example, Luno, a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, has already made inroads into Nigeria, and regulatory clarity could encourage more international firms to set up operations in the country. This influx of businesses would create competitively high-paying jobs, boost local innovation, and stimulate investments in technology and education, resulting in an overall economic uplift. Additionally, attracting global blockchain companies would bring much-needed capital, expertise, and technology transfer to Nigeria’s growing tech ecosystem, powering a more vibrant and competitive economy. By positioning itself as a crypto hub, Nigeria could generate enormous tax revenues and strengthen its position as a leader in Africa’s digital economy.
- Boosting the Tech and Startup Ecosystem
Cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and artificial intelligence (AI) are converging as part of the broader fintech revolution that is sweeping across Africa, and Nigeria, with its dynamic, tech-savvy population, is primed to benefit from this intersection. Countries like Estonia have used AI in tandem with blockchain to enhance government services and fintech solutions. For example, Estonia’s e-Residency program leverages both AI and blockchain to offer global entrepreneurs a secure, transparent, and automated system for starting and managing businesses remotely. In Singapore, AI-powered blockchain applications help to streamline financial services, including crypto trading platforms, smart contracts, and payment systems. Nigeria can harness this fusion of AI and blockchain to catalyse innovation, particularly through the development of decentralised applications (dApps), AI-driven crypto wallets, and automated systems that cater to both local and international markets. By encouraging the creation of AI-powered financial services and machine learning algorithms for data analysis, the government can enable Nigerian startups to build next-generation fintech solutions that improve efficiency, security, and scalability in ways that traditional systems CANNOT. This convergence of AI and blockchain empowers local entrepreneurs to create new revenue streams, optimise supply chains, and even revamp industries such as agritech, e-commerce, and logistics.
A supportive regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and blockchain can also attract global venture capital and angel investors who are increasingly looking to invest in the intersection of AI, blockchain, and fintech. Countries like the U.S., United Kingdom, and Singapore have attracted millions in investment by positioning themselves as global hubs for AI-driven fintech solutions. In the U.K., companies like Revolut and Monzo are already using AI to enhance user experience, predict market trends, and offer tailored financial advice to users. Similarly, Binance, the global cryptocurrency exchange, uses AI-based algorithms to detect fraudulent activity and optimise trading experiences. By adopting a regulatory framework that supports cryptocurrency and AI, Nigeria could become a magnet for global investors looking for opportunities to fund cutting-edge AI and blockchain startups. This would help Nigerian entrepreneurs scale their operations while driving the development of AI-powered financial tools that can tackle specific challenges within the African market, such as financial inclusion, cross-border payments, and mobile banking. As AI and blockchain technologies evolve together, Nigeria could emerge as the Silicon Valley of Africa, providing a hub for technological innovation that combines the power of AI, cryptocurrency, and blockchain to transform industries, create jobs, and drive economic growth.
Challenges to Effective Cryptocurrency Regulation
Despite the promising opportunities, there are several challenges that Nigeria must navigate to ensure effective and balanced cryptocurrency regulation.
- Regulatory Overreach
This stands out as the primary concerns for crypto enthusiasts, where overly restrictive policies could stifle innovation and drive businesses away. While regulation is essential for protecting investors, preventing fraud, and ensuring the security of the market, excessively stringent regulations can create a hostile environment for startups and entrepreneurs. Countries like Malta and Switzerland have successfully attracted global cryptocurrency businesses by adopting pro-crypto regulatory frameworks that emphasize transparency, security, and investor protection without imposing heavy burdens on businesses. Malta, often called the “Blockchain Island,” has built a robust legal framework for blockchain and cryptocurrency, providing legal certainty for businesses and entrepreneurs (Africa can learn from them). Similarly, Switzerland, with its Crypto Valley in Zug, offers a favourable regulatory environment that encourages innovation while maintaining strict anti-money laundering standards. In contrast, countries that have adopted harsh measures, like China, which has imposed outright bans on cryptocurrency exchanges and mining, have seen their markets move to more crypto-friendly jurisdictions. For Nigeria to avoid stifling its growing crypto sector, it must find the delicate balance between ensuring sufficient oversight and maintaining an open, conducive environment for innovation. Overly aggressive regulation could drive talent and investment to countries with clearer, more attractive policies, hindering the development of Nigeria’s crypto ecosystem.
- Lack of Infrastructure and Education
Despite the increasing adoption of cryptocurrency in Nigeria, major hurdles remain due to the lack of infrastructure and limited education on blockchain and digital assets. Many Nigerians are still unfamiliar with the intricacies of cryptocurrency trading, digital security, and the underlying blockchain technology, which can lead to skepticism or poor decision-making. Kenya, another African country with rising crypto adoption, has made notable strides in addressing these issues by promoting financial literacy programs and partnering with blockchain companies to educate the population about the opportunities and risks in digital finance. However, infrastructure remains a notable barrier, as many Nigerians still face bottlenecks with reliable internet access, which is basic for trading and securely managing digital assets. Additionally, the lack of secure exchanges and access to professional financial services leaves users vulnerable to scams and fraud. This is a challenge faced in India, where the rapid growth of crypto trading led to numerous fraud cases due to unregulated exchanges and a lack of consumer protection. To ensure the long-term success of cryptocurrency in Nigeria, the government, alongside industry players, must prioritise comprehensive educational programs and the development of secure, user-friendly infrastructure. These efforts should focus on improving financial literacy, teaching blockchain fundamentals, and providing training on safe crypto trading practices. Without these foundational elements in place, widespread adoption could be delayed, and Nigerians may fall prey to financial risks, ultimately undermining the growth of the digital economy.
- Risk of Financial Instability
The speculative nature of cryptocurrencies poses a huge risk to financial stability, particularly in emerging markets like Nigeria, where investor protections are often limited and the financial literacy gap is wide. In the absence of proper regulation, speculative trading can result in sharp market volatility, leaving uninformed investors vulnerable to significant financial losses, as seen in South Korea during the 2017 cryptocurrency boom. At that time, a surge in speculative trading led to market instability, prompting the South Korean government to implement stricter regulations, including banning anonymous crypto accounts and enforcing real-name trading. Similarly, in China, the speculative frenzy around crypto trading led to the government’s decision to crack down on exchanges and Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), fearing it would destabilise the financial system. These measures, while aiming to protect investors and prevent market manipulation, also helped to curb rampant speculation. For Nigeria, it’s crucial to adopt a regulatory approach that balances investor protection with sector growth. The government could introduce safeguards such as mandatory disclosure of risks, investor accreditation for participation in high-risk assets, and guidelines to limit excessive leverage in crypto trading. These measures would help curb speculation while maintaining a nurturing environment for innovation and growth in the sector, similar to how Germany and Switzerland have implemented clear regulations that allow crypto markets to flourish but with enough oversight to prevent systemic risk. By taking a proactive approach, Nigeria can reduce the risk of financial instability while encouraging the growth of its digital economy.
- Security Concerns and Cybercrime
As cryptocurrency continues to gain popularity in Nigeria, the risks associated with cybercrime and fraud will inevitably increase, threatening both individual investors and the broader market. The decentralised and pseudonymous nature of cryptocurrencies makes them attractive targets for cybercriminals, and without robust security measures, Nigeria could see an uptick in incidents of hacking, scams, and identity theft, as seen in countries like Japan and South Korea. In Japan, the Coincheck hack in 2018 saw cybercriminals steal over $500 million worth of cryptocurrencies, highlighting the vulnerabilities of exchanges in an under-regulated environment. Similarly, in South Korea, the exchange Upbit faced multiple security breaches, leading to the loss of millions of dollars’ worth of digital assets, which seriously undermined investor confidence in the local market. For Nigeria to avoid these pitfalls, it is essential that the government and crypto businesses work together to implement robust cybersecurity frameworks. These measures should include two-factor authentication, regular security audits, insurance coverage for digital asset theft (new opportunities for insurance companies), and anti-fraud regulations that hold businesses accountable for safeguarding their customers’ funds. Additionally, education around digital security is important to ensure users understand how to protect their private keys and avoid falling victim to phishing scams and fake investment schemes. If left unaddressed, these security concerns could erode trust in the cryptocurrency space, potentially derailing Nigeria’s ambitions to become a leading player in the global crypto market. By prioritising cybersecurity and collaborative efforts between regulators and crypto firms, Nigeria can build a more secure, trustworthy ecosystem that promotes innovation while protecting its citizens and investors.
The Future Role of Blockchain in Nigeria’s Digital Economy
While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the future of cryptocurrency and blockchain in Nigeria remains bright, offering the potential to model the country into a leading digital economy. A well-crafted regulatory environment will be key to unlocking these opportunities, striking a delicate balance between encouraging innovation and mitigating risks such as cybercrime and market instability. For instance, Estonia’s approach, where blockchain is embedded in e-governance, healthcare, and financial services, has demonstrated how blockchain can drive efficiency and transparency while maintaining regulatory oversight. Similarly, Rwanda has explored blockchain to improve transparency in supply chains, boosting trust in sectors like agriculture and trade. By drawing from these examples, Nigeria can build a framework that encourages blockchain adoption in areas like financial inclusion, healthcare, and government services. This would not only offer Nigerians with easier access to financial services but could also empower underserved communities, especially those without access to traditional banking systems. Furthermore, by educating the workforce and powering a culture of technological innovation, Nigeria can create a thriving ecosystem of blockchain startups and fintech companies, attracting global investment and talent. As Nigeria positions itself as a hub for blockchain and cryptocurrency innovation, it will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Africa’s digital economy, driving growth, creating jobs, and ensuring that the benefits of the digital revolution are felt across the continent. Through smart regulation, concise education, and an emphasis on technology-driven solutions, Nigeria can harness the full potential of blockchain to drive economic growth, improve public services, and position itself as a global leader in the digital economy.
In conclusion, the cryptocurrency space in Nigeria should be growing at an unprecedented pace, and with this should come the pressing need for a thoughtful and comprehensive regulatory framework. While challenges such as regulatory uncertainty, financial literacy gaps, and security concerns continue to pose major obstacles, the opportunities for Nigeria are immense. By establishing clear and balanced regulations, Nigeria can avoid the pitfalls seen in other regions while positioning itself as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption across Africa. This framework would promote a thriving digital economy and pave the way for a more inclusive financial system, offering millions of Nigerians access to decentralised financial services, greater economic opportunities, and increased participation in the global digital economy. Moreover, with the right investments in education, infrastructure, and cybersecurity, Nigeria can cultivate a robust tech ecosystem that attracts global investors and innovators, creating jobs, driving economic growth, and unlocking the immense potential of blockchain and digital currencies. As the country steers through the complexities of regulation, it holds the key to shaping a future where blockchain and cryptocurrency are powerful drivers of financial empowerment, technological advancement, and economic prosperity, not just for Nigeria but for the broader African continent.
Thank you for the huge investment in time. Please follow my Medium: https://medium.com/@roariyo and LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/olufemiariyo/ for more; or send an email to techtalk@freesia.com.ng
The phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” gained prominence during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 U.S. presidential campaign, thanks to strategist James Carville. It served as a directive to campaign staff, urging them to focus on key economic issues to sway voters. In a similar vein, the title of this piece—“Detty December: It’s the Currency Devaluation, Plain and Simple!”—is aimed at highlighting a core factor behind the recent surge in economic activities and festivities in Nigeria during December: the significant devaluation of the naira.
This devaluation prompted many Nigerians living abroad to return home to celebrate the holidays with their families, spurring an unprecedented wave of revelry and tourism. As I see it, this marks a tangible benefit of President Tinubu’s socioeconomic reforms. Without a doubt, December’s economic boom, particularly in Lagos, was fueled by diasporans’ spending and benefited various service providers, including hotels, car rental businesses, nightclubs, cruise operators, and food vendors. Even microeconomic activities saw funds trickling down the value chain, driven by the influx of diasporans escaping winter from overseas.
Until now, the positive impact of this devaluation had gone unnoticed or unacknowledged by many, especially critics who dismissed my earlier piece, “Governing Nigeria is Tough, But Tinubu is Achieving Remarkable Progress” (published in ThisDay on Christmas Day, 2024). In that article, I suggested that the Nigerian economy was beginning to thaw. However, some skeptics failed to appreciate the role the weaker naira played in the remarkable economic activities witnessed during December, particularly in Lagos.
With the naira trading between ₦1,166 and ₦1,750 to the dollar by December, the exchange rate was nearly four times what it was before Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. For diasporans, this provided a unique advantage. Take, for instance, a nurse or doctor in the UK who migrated (or “japa-ed”) and suddenly found their £1,000 paycheck converting to a minimum of ₦2 million at the rate of ₦2,000 to £1. Such individuals could easily afford a luxurious week-long stay in Nigeria, renting hotels or short-let apartments, hiring cars, enjoying boat cruises, dining out, and indulging in Lagos’ vibrant nightlife.
This windfall spending by diasporans, as highlighted in a recent revealing report, underscores the vital role currency devaluation played in creating the economic dynamism of December 2024. It’s a phenomenon that further validates the optimism expressed in my earlier commentary about Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.
By now, many readers may have come across the insightful analysis of Nigeria’s economic activities during December 2024, particularly in Lagos. However, for those who might have missed this remarkable report—which has gone viral on social media and received significant attention in traditional media—I will summarize its key points to provide context for the discussion on how naira devaluation has driven positive economic outcomes.
One of the reports, authored by Mr. Kayode Osebi, a consultant to the Lagos State government on taxation and revenue, was reportedly commissioned by the Lagos State government. While the accuracy of the research cannot be independently verified, the data aligns with the economic realities experienced during December. Below are the highlights:
• Inbound Passenger Traffic: Between November 19 and December 26, 2024, Lagos Airport (MMA) recorded approximately 550,000 inbound passengers, 90% of whom were Nigerians in the diaspora visiting for leisure and tourism.
• Tourist Origin and Destinations: The top five originating countries were the U.S., Canada, Italy, South Africa, and the U.K., while Lagos, Edo, Delta, Ondo, and Ogun States were the top destination states. Lagos alone hosted an estimated 1.2 million tourists, 60% of whom were local tourists from the South East and FCT.
The report also noted that insecurity in the South East and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presence in Lagos contributed to the influx of visitors.
• Hotel Revenue: Hotel bookings generated an estimated ₦54 billion ($36 million) in revenue, with 15,000 confirmed bookings in December. Guest spending on food and beverages amounted to ₦13.5 billion ($8 million), while the top 15 hotels accounted for ₦10.5 billion in bookings.
• Short-Let Apartments: Short-let apartment bookings were valued at ₦21 billion ($13 million) across 5,937 apartments, with an average daily rate of ₦120,000. Eko Atlantic ranked highest in residential bookings, while Banana Island recorded the highest estate bookings by value.
• Nightlife and Recreation: The top 15 lounges and nightclubs generated ₦4.32 billion ($2.7 million) in sales, with daily revenues averaging ₦360 million and table spends averaging ₦1.2 million. Beach and resort bookings brought in an additional ₦4.5 billion ($2.8 million), with Ilashe/Ibese and Elegushi beach houses leading in revenue.
Other highlights included:
• Event centers earning ₦1.2 billion ($804,000) from 1,175 bookings.
• Car rentals in the Eti-Osa area generating ₦1.5 billion ($937,500) from 750 high-end vehicle bookings, with daily rates reaching as high as ₦2 million.
• An additional ₦20 billion ($13 million) in revenue from recreational activities such as artist bookings, fine dining, boat rentals, and DJ services.
These figures, compiled by Mr. Osebi, align with another Lagos-based report titled The Economics of Detty December by GrowingNigeria.com. Both reports highlight the significant inflow of funds into the Nigerian economy during the festive period, particularly in Lagos, which served as the epicenter of the festivities.
What stands out most is the sheer scale of money injected into the economy by Nigerians in the diaspora. Instead of enduring the cold winters in Europe and North America, many returned home to celebrate with their families, spurring economic growth. Their spending fueled a near-carnival atmosphere, attracting Afrobeat enthusiasts and tourists from around the world, reminiscent of how reggae music was popularized globally in the 1990s by icons like Bob Marley.
The Bigger Picture.
To fully appreciate the significance of Detty December, it is essential to consider its broader economic implications. A summary of the referenced report captures it succinctly:
“Detty December has evolved from a simple season of family time and Christmas jollof into a global attraction for diasporans, tourists, and Afrobeat lovers. Whether through concerts, beach parties, weddings, or fashion shows, this cultural phenomenon has become a time to experience everything Nigeria has to offer. But beyond the good vibes, have you ever stopped to think about the economics of it all?”
This lighthearted description transitions into a deeper discussion about the massive inflow of foreign exchange into the Nigerian economy. Once converted into naira, these funds were used for lifestyle and entertainment, creating significant economic benefits, particularly for Lagos.
Clearly, Detty December in Nigeria did not commence in 2024. But the exceptional turnout and outcome of the celebrations last december have been exceptional. That is because of the naira devaluation under Tinubu’s watch. Not many commentators including the authors of the headlines hugging reports viewed the Detty December phenomenon from that prism.
Conventionally, nations prefer their currencies to be weak to boost exports and trade because the lower the value of a country’s currency, the more she will be exporting as lower costs attract importers. This can help stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and improve the trade balance.
Critics may argue that Nigeria need not devalue her currency simply because it has nothing substantial to export, except crude/refined petroleum products which in anycase the price is being determined by the Organization of Oil Producing Countries,OPEC.
I would argue that such a point of view is not exactly correct. That is because the huge number of Nigerian professionals in health care and Fintech migrating abroad are actually our exports. India and the Philipines generate enormous revenue from their human resources working in the diaspora.
The potentials of Nigeria’s diaspora population is evidenced by the CBN data cited by the authors/researchers of the Detty December survey where it was noted that over $20 billion was remitted by diasporan Nigerians back home in 2022 and reflective of how the economic landscape of Lagos was impacted for good last december.
In light of the above, is it not preprostrous that there was a time when the agenda of some of our political leaders during campaigns was making the naira exhange rate to be at par with the dollar i.e N1 equal to $1?
Thankfully, president Tinubu is not one of those romantizing the so called good old days of the naira exchange rate being higher than the pound sterling and dollar.
In conclusion, Detty December has showcased the untapped potential of Nigeria’s tourism sector. With the right policies and infrastructure, the nation could transform this seasonal boom into a year-round driver of economic growth.
Tragic December: Lessons for Nigeria’s Tourism Potential.
Before diving further into the economic gains generated by Detty December in Nigeria, it’s important to reflect on the tragedies that marred the same period. In my column titled “Tragic December: Why Can’t Palliatives Be Distributed Dangote Way?”, I addressed the unfortunate loss of over 70 lives in stampedes during food and palliative distribution events in Ibadan, Abuja, and Okija between December 18 and 21.
These avoidable tragedies underscore the urgent need for Nigeria’s national and subnational governments to enact laws regulating the distribution of aid to prevent such disasters in the future. Similar historical incidents, such as the 1929 St. Valentine’s Day Massacre in Chicago, prompted legal reforms in the U.S. to safeguard lives during public events. Nigerian lawmakers should take inspiration from such examples and establish regulations to prevent harm during public gatherings.
The heartbreaking losses during December meant that many families were plunged into mourning during what should have been a time of celebration. This stark contrast highlights the need to ensure that future festivities are not tainted by avoidable tragedies.
The Economics of Detty December.
Returning to the report titled “The Economics of Detty December” by a firm known as GrowingNigeria, the document reveals the massive economic boost generated by festive activities, particularly in Lagos. The editors highlighted how Detty December has evolved into a major economic driver, attracting foreign currency and stimulating various industries.
Key Insights:
1. Diaspora Contributions: Nigerians in the diaspora, carrying foreign currencies, are central to the December economic boom. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported diaspora remittances exceeding $20 billion in 2023, a significant portion of which flowed in during the festive season.
2. Tourism and Spending: Dollars, pounds, and euros exchanged at airports and POS machines across Lagos fueled spending on flights, hotels, events, and cultural activities. Custom-made outfits (aso-ebi) for weddings and events further benefited local artisans.
3. Ripple Effects: Industries such as hospitality, logistics, events, and even local crafts saw significant liquidity. As the report noted: “Detty December is more than a social calendar; it is a money-making machine.”
Unlocking Nigeria’s Tourism Potential by replicating Detty December financial boom nation wide.
The economic success of Detty December underscores Nigeria’s untapped tourism potential. However, the benefits are currently concentrated in Lagos. To fully harness tourism, the following steps must be prioritized:
1. Addressing Insecurity: The lingering insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the northern regions, must be tackled. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu must work to dissuade religious insurgents through persuasion and economic opportunities rather than relying solely on military force.
• Example from Islamic Countries: Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, despite being Islamic nations, have leveraged tourism as a significant income source. For instance, Saudi Arabia earned $36 billion from tourism in 2023, contributing 11.5% to its GDP.
2. Tourism as a Tool for Peace: By creating job opportunities in tourism, the government can redirect those involved in insurgency toward productive activities. Former militants could serve as tour guides or offer other services, as seen in the Middle East and North Africa.
3. Diversifying Tourism Beyond Lagos: Authorities should promote tourism nationwide, leveraging Nigeria’s vast cultural and natural attractions. Lagos should remain a hub, but other states with rich histories and unique landmarks must also be developed as tourism destinations.
Comparisons to Global Tourism Earnings.
Despite Nigeria’s size and cultural wealth, its tourism revenue in 2022 was only $17.3 billion, representing just 3.6% of its GDP. This pales in comparison to:
• Saudi Arabia: $36 billion (11.5% of GDP in 2023)
• UAE: AED 220 billion (11.7% of GDP in 2023)
• Egypt: $15 billion (2023)
With strategic planning, improved security, and proper investments, Nigeria could significantly increase its tourism revenues and reduce reliance on oil.
Detty December has proven that tourism is a viable path for Nigeria’s economic growth. The challenge now lies in extending its benefits nationwide while addressing the structural issues holding the sector back.
We can emulate Egypt which is an African country deeply rooted in lslam yet they welcome foreigners as tourists to live amongst them.
In Egypt for instance, there is a city known as Sham El Shek. It is a purpose built location for european tourists who have established their winter homes over there. Currently , owing to climate change effects, europe and north America -USA and Canada are frozen with the elderly ones anxious to relocate to countries with more clement weather.
The weather and environment of Sham El Shek is not different from what is obtainable in Kaduna and kano states in Nigeria.
There are even tourist locations such as Tiga Dam around Kaduna and Kano.
Ordinarily, the europeans spending their winter in Egypt could have done the same in Nigeria.
But they are unable to do so owing to insecurity imposed on the areas by religous extremists and bandits including herders-famers engaging in violent clashes.
The same panacea being proposed for the northern parts of Nigeria applies to the Unknown Gunmen , ravaging the south east also known as separatists and environmental rights activist who have become militants in the Niger Delta.
The faith based institutions and priests in those regions also have a role to play in persuading the angry Nigerians engaged in rebellion against our country in multiple guises, that it is time to give peace a chance so that we can all harness the immense potentials of our beloved country for the greater good of all.
Magnus Onyibe, a public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, (2003-2007) sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.
“Why sale of Port Harcourt Refinery to Dangote was cancelled by President Yar’Adua by Femi Falana” – VANGUARD, January 4, 2025
I never thought a situation would arise which would induce me to come to the defence of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, NNPCL. But, this page started with a pledge to adhere to the basic principles of journalism, which is facts are sacred; comments are free. We have tried to maintain that principle; despite the occasional emotional reactions of the officials who are carpeted on this page. Former President Obasanjo’s attack on the NNPC and late President Yar’Adua is one of those rare examples when NNPC must be defended.
First of all, my sincere appreciation goes to Femi Falana, SAN, whose rejoinder to OBJ in the VANGUARD, cited above, has partly exonerated the NNPCL.
Posterity will someday recognise Falana as one of the greatest lawyers of our era. He had, in that short piece, exposed the corruption behind the purported sale of the refinery to Dangote for $750 million. One does not need to be versed in law; neither is it necessary to have a great grasp of the English language to understand that what Obasanjo called a sale was in reality a scam.
“If I were to try to read, much less answer, all the attacks made on me, this shop might as well be closed for any other business”.
US President Abraham Lincoln, 1809-1865.
However, before going further, I must advise the Board and Management of the NNPCL to develop appropriate thick skin to criticisms. In a situation in which every decision affects various groups differently, for good or ill, it is out of question to expect losers to join the praise singing or for winners to see anything wrong with the decision. Invariably, there are very few neutral observers.
More to the point, it is difficult for me to understand why the current managers of the NNPCL felt called upon to publish rejoinders to Obasanjo’s outburst when most of it referred to decisions made long before any of them got into office. Two Presidents – Jonathan and Buhari – had the opportunity to revisit Yar Adua’s decision, which was most patriotic, and they did not reverse it. So, what has the current NNPCL managers got to do with it? They should simply have ignored Baba.
“Truth that’s told with bad intent/ Beats all the lies you can invent.” William Blake, 1757-1827.
NNPCL should have left OBJ to Falana and Dele Sobowale; who know a lot more about why the former president is still sore about the sale of the refinery.
As Falana pointed out, the former President co-opted the statutory functions of the Vice-President by giving the excuse that he wanted to eradicate corruption in the privatisation process. He did the same with the Petroleum Development Trust Fund, PDTF. Yet, a Senate ad hoc Committee, headed by Senator Daisy Danjuma had this to say about PDTF under Obasanio.
“I was shocked, disturbed at the extent of gross abuse of office, privileges and misapplication of public funds by both the President and Vice President…PDTF was paying for services outside its mandate.” PDP:
CORRUPTION INCORPORATED, P. 19S). Incidentally, page 197 of the book has information vital to a current case of defamation now trending. Somebody close to Obasanjo must be very careful. Reputation once considered rock solid is in jeopardy. Just as Obasanjo was intentionally hypocritical and used the office of Nuhu Ribadu, Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, to cover his involvement in the controversial PDTF funds case he was not totally honest about why 51 % shares in two refineries were sold on May 17 and 28 respectively. Keen observers would notice that the second sale, on May 28, 2007, was made on Obasanjo’s last day in office when all the organs of government which should have been involved have shut down. Again as Falana rightly pointed out, the shares in the Port Harcourt refinery sold for $516 dollars were estimated to be worth $5 billion. It is baffling how anybody who disposed of public assets worth $5 billion for $516 million can still go around talking as if he was acting in the national interest. We all know what would have happened to such a man in China or Singapore!
SALE OF OIL BLOCK
“$2 billion oil block sold at $5 million”. The NATION, July 31, 2008.
The sub-head to the story said: “The DPR chief, Obasanjo directed sale”. The rest of the story read as follows: “The House of Representatives Ad Hoc Committee probing the oil sector heard yesterday how a $2.28 billion [then, N296.4 billion; now N3.476 trillion] was sold to a Chinese firm for $5 million by some workers of the Directorate of Petroleum Resources, DPR”
Further, one Tony Chukwueke, a Director of the DPR, said the “block was awarded on the directive of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.” The full disclosure about this deal is available on pages 290 to 292 of PDP: CORRUPTION INCORPORATED, which was published in 2011. The truth is, when Obasanjo took the unprecedented step of appointing himself Minister of Petroleum Resources, he claimed that the aim was to wipe out corruption in the sector. Probes by Ad Hoc Committees of the Senate and House of Representatives have proved beyond reasonable doubt that instead of eradicating corruption, Obasanjo encouraged it. Before you start thinking that another Dele is fishing in troubled waters, just read the book. It is available online. You will be amazed that a former official who has so many skeletons in the archives of the National Assembly, NASS, would still be pointing accusing fingers at a sector in which his government established a new template for corruption.
DELIBERATE NEGLECT OF TURN AROUND MAINTENANCE
“TAM contract awards: More sacrifices on the altar of greed.”
When Obasanjo decided on fuel subsidy removal and proposed to privatise the four refineries, his government released a document which made several revelations. Pages 283 to 288 of PDP: CORRUPTION INCORPORATED were based on a document titled REPORT OF THE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION which was released by the Federal Government in October 2000.
I must confess to receiving a copy plus briefing before other columnists from late Mr Tuni Oseni, the President’s Senior Special Adviser before it was widely distributed. Read my book; and you would be shocked at the depth of deliberate sabotage at the highest levels of government.
Because of space constraints, I will limit myself to only one issue – Turn Around Maintenance, TAM. The last TAM was in 1994 before 1999. TAMs were last carried out regularly under Babangida. Obasanjo undertook only one – which was not full – before deciding to privatise and sold one to his crony. The refineries were deliberately allowed to run down; they operated at about eighteen per cent of installed capacity; in order to provide the excuse for selling them as scrap to a benefactor. Read the truth and you will feel sorry for Nigeria for having such a leader at a critical point in our history.
I am a member of the foreign relations think tank, the Society for International Relations Awareness, SIRA. Its membership is made up primarily of retired ambassadors, Emeritus Professors, academics, former Permanent Secretaries, political scientists and lawyers. There is just a sprinkling of other professionals such as the military and trade unions. About four years ago, SIRA founding President, Professor Nuhu Omeiza Yaqub, former Vice Chancellor, University of Abuja, UNIABUJA and, later, Sokoto State University, called me. He wanted to visit me at home. I protested that it was I as one of his mentees that should visit him. He insisted on the visit. What he said shocked me. The elders of SIRA had consulted and had decided that I should be the next president of the organisation. I gave some reasons why I could not be SIRA President, including the fact that I had not even been a member of the Executive Board. Yaqub brushed aside my objections saying I had no choice in the matter. He added in his characteristic humour that since Nigeria is a democracy, I had the right to protest against my nomination at the convention.
He had no airs and was ever ready to assist people. In January 2024, I sent him an urgent text message. A group of us in Nigeria had decided to organise The International Lenin Centenary Conference to commemorate the January 21, 1924 passing of Vladimir Lenin, the man who led the first Socialist Revolution in the world. I asked if despite the very short notice of a few weeks, he could present the Keynote Address. Within hours, he sent me theme of his presentation: “Labour Aristocracy and the Denouement of Democratic Politics in Nigeria: Marxism-Leninism to the Rescue.”
Some months later, SIRA decided to organise an International Conference for the Eradication of Colonialism on Earth. The theme was: “The Forgotten Peoples: International Conference to Decolonize the World.” We zeroed in on Professor Ibrahim Gambari, last Chair, UN Special Committee Against Apartheid and former UN Special Envoy to Cyprus, Zimbabwe and Myanmar. To secure the consent of the quite busy international envoy, Prof Yaqub led a delegation to Prof Gambari.
Prof was a very active advocate of various causes, including those for the total independence of Western Sahara and, the lifting of the six-decade embargo against Cuba by the United States. I recall that in 2019, the Nigerian Movement of Solidarity with Cuba had a public campaign for Cuba in the Nasarawa State University, Keffi. Prof drove there to express his solidarity. He just could not stand by and watch people suffer.
In 1992, a young public servant, Olusola Magbadelo, based on the perspective of the ‘Home-grown Democratization Theory’ presented a paper on the Transition Programme of the Babangida regime. It was at the International Political Science Association Conference. He got jeers and condemnation, left the hall head bowed with a sense of dejection.
It was in that state of despair, someone approached him outside the hall, commended him for the bravery he displayed and enquired why he was not in a doctoral programme. That was how he met Yaqub.
“In 2024, that is 15 years after he had left UNIABUJA, a professor pasted on the Professors WhatsApp page, a photograph he took with Yaqub; what followed was an avalanche of testimonies highlighting his humanness, commitment to merit, mentorship and sense of social justice”
Magbadelo told him that he was shortlisted for the 1994/1995 Commonwealth scholarship to support his PhD programme in Canada. Yaqub advised him to start the doctoral programme locally while awaiting the Commonwealth scholarship. Yaqub who was then the Head of Political Science, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, obtained the institution’s postgraduate form and sent it to Magbadelo. The latter was admitted into Danfodio in 1994. Shortly afterwards, the Commonwealth Scholarship programme for Nigerian scholars was cancelled as Canada pulled out of Nigeria in protest against the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election and, the 1995 execution of environmentalist, Ken Saro-Wiwa. So, Yaqub’s advice and action turned out to be providential. As his main supervisor, he helped Magbadelo secure the research grant to support his comparative study of the democratisation processes in Nigeria and South Korea. When the latter’s workload in the civil service from 1998 made him to abandon the PhD programme, Yaqub, whenever he was in Abuja, ensured he met Magbadelo to pressure him to resume his PhD programme. When he eventually did, Yaqub and his family hosted his student whenever he was in Sokoto and arranged accommodation for him in the University Guest House. These acts enabled Magbadelo to complete his Political Science doctoral programme in 2001.
When Yaqub was UNIABUJA Vice Chancellor, Professors Ohaire and Aliyu Hussaini who were travelling to attend the College of Education, Okene, convocation ceremony, died in a motor accident. Yaqub did not only ensure befitting funeral rites, but also offered jobs to the families of the academics.
In 2024, that is 15 years after he had left UNIABUJA, a professor pasted on the Professors WhatsApp page, a photograph he took with Yaqub. What followed was an avalanche of testimonies highlighting his humanness, commitment to merit, mentorship and sense of social justice.
On Monday, December 2, 2024 I was with Yaqub at the 70th Birthday programme of Professor Jibrin ‘Jibo’ Ibrahim. We agreed to meet to update ourselves on events. He was also active in at least three other programmes leading to the New Year. So, nothing prepared me for the shock on Saturday, January 4, 2025 that he had marched on.
At his January 11, 2024 Fidau prayer, the crowds gathered. The diplomats included the 74th United Nations General Assembly President, Tijjani Muhammad- Bande; Cuban Ambassador Miriam Morales Palmero and Western Sahara First Secretary Hamahu-Allah Mohamed. The political class included former Education Minister, Professor Tunde Adeniran, former Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu and two Commissioners representing Kogi State Governor Usman Ododo. Also present was prolific author, Dr Buka Usman and trade unionists Chris Uyot, Hauwa Mustapha and Denja Yaqub. Civil Society leaders included Mma Odi. The Amilcar Cabral Ideological School sent a three-person delegation. Academics expectedly thronged the venue. They included Professors Adele Jinadu, Bolade Eyinla and Jibrin Ibrahim. The SIRA family included Professor Warisu Alli and Rear Admiral Anthony Isa, who gave the vote of thanks.
Professor Abubakar Suleiman, Director General of the National Institute of Legislative and Democratic Studies, said Yaqub had so much humility that even when he wanted to minute to a messenger, he would begin with the word ‘Please’.
In response to the messages of appreciation heaped on him by UNIABUJA professors, Professor Yaqub had responded in October, 2024: “My obsession in this earthly world is to beseech God not to allow me to fall below the high estimation that each of THESE MY COLLEAGUES have bestowed upon me. God, kindly allow me to come back to You in the Hereafter in this blaze of integrity and performance quotients that my colleagues have heaped on me.”
The National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) television advert never fails to amuse me. Every time it appears on screen, I turn to my wife, also a marketing communicator, and ask: who exactly is NELFUND trying to reach with this type of TVC (as we say in advertising)?
The other day, however, I decided to watch the advert to the very end, only to discover that it was the National Orientation Agency (NOA) that produced the campaign for NELFUND.
Every advertising campaign is driven by its target audience dynamics, that is, the makeup of the market to which the product or service will be sold. This is why a thorough target audience analysis is usually conducted before embarking on such campaigns. The audience demographics—age, sex, income, population, location, etc.—are carefully considered. Their psychographics, such as lifestyle, attitudes, beliefs, and values, are also tracked to ensure alignment with the essence of the product or service being marketed.
These factors would then determine the copy (language), models, locations, and other elements used to capture the attention of the intended audience.
In the light of this background, one begins to wonder whether the NOA took the time to study NELFUND’s target audience before producing the television cartoon currently running on major national television networks.
The last I checked, NELFUND is a national loan scheme introduced by President Bola Tinubu to make higher education accessible to indigent students who ordinarily may not be able to afford it. This means the scheme targets potential and current higher education students aged 16–18 years and above – young adults on the verge of entering tertiary institutions or already enrolled.
Communicating such an important credit facility through a “Tom and Jerry”-style animated cartoon advert is inappropriate.
NELFUND is a serious financial product that requires clear and unambiguous communication. Animated cartoons are typically designed to entertain children or aid their cognitive development. While some adults may occasionally watch them for amusement, this alone is insufficient justification to use such a medium to communicate a life-changing facility to young adults.
Financial institutions that use animated cartoons, caricatures, or emojis in their campaigns typically do so as part of secondary or subordinate campaigns, reinforcing a major primary message.
The NOA would do well to use relatable models who resemble young students to create a public awareness campaign that resonates with the target audience.
The campaign should also extend to remote areas of the country, where poor but brilliant students abound.
President Tinubu’s intention is to ensure that no youth’s academic potential should be truncated due to financial incapacity. This vision underpins the introduction of NELFUND, and the NOA has a critical role in realizing this objective.
Nwosu PhD writes from Awka.
‘Whatever will be, will be’, translated in Latin as “Que Sera, Sera”, was the response I got from a friend when I asked him over lunch if he possibly thinks that with the current economic growth rate, Nigeria can attain the status of a trillion dollar economy by 2030. A colloquial I know sounds very familiar and has assumed a very popular form of sloganeering, depicting that the future is in the air and fate determines the outcome of a course of events. While this phrase may often come in handy and be correct in some instances and could be a helpful attitude to ease anxiety, the same cannot be adopted for a nation’s economy as no economy is guaranteed to grow unless certain factors are dispassionately implemented.
Certain factors determine the kind of economy countries have. One of such factors is the expenditures profile of the government. Nothing is left to chance in the economic transformative processes of a nation. Data and stats play critical roles and financial and economic experts go in the direction they take them, just in the same way DNA evidence does in forensic crime investigations – I understand crime investigators would typically go anywhere DNA evidence leads them even if other evidence may be pointing in a different direction.
Achieving profound economic growth requires conscientious and intentional planning. Talking about planning and the economic projections for the next five years, one would wonder, going by the stats analysed in the 2025 Appropriation Bill dubbed “The Restoration Budget: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity” and presented to the NASS by President Tinubu last month, if the kind of total expenditure earmarked in this bill would guarantee the GDP threshold of $1 trillion promised by this administration by 2030. Are we truly on track to achieve this phenomenal feat in five years?
With an average growth rate of 3.2 percent in 2024, the economic growth is indisputably very slow and the government needs to expand the economy by increasing spending exponentially. There is a direct correlation between the annual total spending of a government and economic growth. Many had hoped that there would be a dramatic shift to substantially increase the government’s 2025 total expenditure to spur productivity and aggregate demand, create job opportunities, make massive investments in infrastructure in key sectors and improve the quality of life of Nigerians.
The size of the 2025 budget relative to the size of our population has come under attack. It highlights the disappointment of many wishing that the total spending would be considerably higher but definitely not to fund corruption. A surfeit of experts have described it as too meagre to service a population as large as ours – estimated by IMF to be 233 million. Nonetheless, the hallmark of the 2025 Appropriation Bill is the conspicuous absence of any funds allocated to fuel subsidy. This has loomed large over the economy of this nation. The response to its non-inclusion has been meteoric and sensational – rightly so. The removal of the fuel subsidy is a long time coming and it will assuredly have enduring economic effects well into the future for the country.
However, it is as if the makeup of the 2025 national budget proposal has taken a surprising new twist with debt servicing replacing the fuel subsidy. It can be safely assumed that the $6-10 billion characteristically allocated to this expense line over the years has been repackaged as debt servicing – 15.8 trillion naira ($10 billion). While the 2025 Appropriation Bill of 49.7 trillion naira is 42 percent higher than the 2024 Appropriation Act of 35 trillion naira, it is way smaller in absolute terms due to the massive devaluation of the naira.
Unfortunately, Nigeria would continue to reel from naira devaluation because of her debt burden notably from our foreign exposures. A deficit financing of 13 trillion naira occasioned by the ridiculously low revenue profile of the nation is extremely worrisome. Implications are that the debt servicing for 2026 will likely increase. The reversal would however continue to be elusive if the nation’s revenue profile isn’t stepped up to appreciably stem deficit spending and stop the reliance on loans.
To fix this, rebuild fiscal space and create macroeconomic stability, there may be an urgent need to restructure the country’s debt portfolio. There are reports that Nigeria is being ripped off with high fees as the interest rates by international creditors on loans availed to the country are one of the highest globally. An urgent need to renegotiate the terms of most of our exposures is extremely desirable. Furthermore, there should be a lot of debates and discussions around how to boost the state of our government and eke out an economic win that would serve the overall interests of the people.
Equally, it is imperative to reset budgetary conversations and develop decent revenue sources pretty fast especially from non-natural sources like taxes and levies. Imagine if the nation’s tax-to-GDP ratio moves northwards from around 10 percent to 25 percent with effective tax administration and laws, a sum of $50 billion (80 trillion naira) would accrue to the federation account just from taxes alone, with the current size of our economy.
The red tape must be cut to engender economic prosperity and development and curb waste and fraud. This is essential to achieve any meaningful success with the implementation of this and subsequent national budgets. Even though it is shy of expectations, it is expected that this Appropriation Bill would benefit all Nigerians regardless of ethnic or political inclination and serve as a gateway to connect with the people for the attainment of wide-ranging social needs and address the public safety crisis in many parts of the country.
It is an unsettling time for most Nigerians as far as the economy is concerned as little could prepare many folks for the affordability crisis they have been subjected to over the course of a dozen and half months. Many folks, impoverished, helpless and living from paycheck to paycheck, have a grim task of processing what has befallen them financially but know surviving in present-day Nigeria would take a little more elbow grease.
The government and economic handlers must therefore develop a personal relationship or feeling for the people much more than the political relationship which seems to currently exit. That is the way to have compassion and feel the heartbeats of the struggling and vulnerable Nigerians. The heartbeats of several folks pang of hunger, deprivation, poverty, inability to pay school fees and house rents, etc. Nigerians seeking full accountability for every penny appropriated should therefore not be viewed as asking for too much.
It is almost certain that attaining $1 trillion by 2030 is impracticable with our economy put by IMF at $194.96 billion in 2024 due to the monumental naira devaluation, because to achieve that, Nigeria would have to grow at 38 percent annually for the next five years from the 3.2 percent growth rate accomplished in 2024. Well, it is left to be seen what to expect based on the size of the nation’s economy with the planned rebasing exercise. Nevertheless, she can improve her economic status if she can truly diversify her economy from oil and gas to non-oil sectors like SMEs, real sector to grow productivity, agriculture, etc.
The country’s domestic production capacity is next to nothing as we sparsely produce anything of substantial value for the global markets. We cannot continue to rely on imported goods and expect to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030. It is time for the country to be a “creator and not just a consumer” by producing valuable goods that will satisfy not just the domestic market but serve the international markets as well.
Additionally, there is an urgent need to incentivise and attract massive capital to the country, the likes of which were seen at the onset of the Fourth Republic where Nigeria was the preferred destination of FDIs in Africa and I believe this administration can leverage on the transactional style of leadership of Donald Trump to foster deals that will usher in substantial capital inflows into the country.
However, the insecurity ravaging many parts of the country needs to be curtailed to boost investors’ confidence, which is needed to attract capital and stimulate the economy. Over the years, insecurity has been an economic malaise that has diminished investments, especially from foreign investors, causing a spike in the rate of unemployment and resulting in several social issues that the government is still grappling with. The government must provide a safe and secure environment to prompt capital development and provision of social investments necessary to serve as a catalyst for economic growth.
In conclusion, while I admire the optimism on display by President Tinubu in his media chat on December 23, 2024, I sincerely hope the performance of this budget will be topmost on his agenda using the power of his presidential pen to get things done and ensure transparency and accountability. Amid the biting but desirable economic policies, a bundle of economic plans likely planned for 2025 by this administration and the recent uptick in the foreign reserves, the country risks losing all the benefits designed to accrue if the efficiency of government at national and sub-national levels does not feature prominently on the front burner.
President Tinubu must be prepared to move mountains to decimate the hydra-headed monsters – corruption, waste, frauds, inefficiencies, and the reported shoddy implementation of past national budgets denting our national pride and honour.
Ande, a financial and political economy analyst, writes from Lagos and can be reached via eyitayoande@gmail.com
There was a mild drama at Our Saviour’s Church, Tafawa Balewa Square, Lagos on Wednesday, January 8, when the presiding cleric veered off from his sermon to address business magnate, Aliko Dangote, who was seated in the front row with other dignitaries directly. Speaking off the cuff, the vicar pleaded with Dangote not to abandon Nigeria at these very challenging times.
“I want to address our brother, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, who is here with us… and to plead with him to go back on whatever good plans he has about Nigeria. Sir, that investment in steel you have been thinking about, please, don’t abandon the idea. Nigeria is counting on you. Your investments are not for this generation alone. Don’t abandon the country,” the vicar & archdeacon of Ikoyi parish of the church, the venerable Folorunso Oreoluwas Agbelusi, pleaded.
The congregation was stunned by the cleric’s unexpected remarks, with some applauding, while others looked on with apparent amazement. The import of the cleric’s impassioned entreaties were not lost on the audience, among whom were governor of Lagos state, Babajide Sanwo-Olu; governor of Ogun state, Dapo Abiodun; chairman of Zenith Bank, Jim Ovia; former CBN governor, Joseph Sanusi; bankers and other dignitaries. Dangote himself, looking visibly stunned, nodded gently and managed a smile as the vicar made his case.
The event was a thanksgiving service to celebrate the 90th birthday of elder statesman and culture icon, Frank Abiodun Aig-Imoukhuede which fell on that same day. Dangote is a close family friend of the Aig-Imoukhuede’s and is always available at the family’s events, including church service, although he is a devout Muslim. In August 2021, the business mogul was also at the same church during the funeral service of late Pastor (Mrs) Emily Aig-Imoukhuede, the departed wife of the nonagenarian we were honouring on Wednesday.
Aliko Dangote had previously announced that he would no longer proceed with his plans to invest in the building of a steel plant in Nigeria because of the frustrations he suffered in the hands of government officials while trying to get his $20 billion refinery and petrochemical complex to commence production. While conducting journalists around the complex last June, he spoke of roadblocks mounted by different government agencies to cripple the business, indicating that the cabals in Nigeria’s oil industry are more powerful than the drug cartels of Mexico and Colombia.
He told the visiting journalists (I was among them) that he regretted going into the refinery business and that he was holding back on his planned investment in steel development since the country didn’t seem to appreciate his efforts. Dangote was specifically miffed by the decision of government’s regulatory agencies to push for fuel importation despite his refinery’s capacity to meet domestic consumptions with excess for export. It has the capacity to refine 640,000 barrels of crude oil per day, although the NNPC cannot provide that much due to massive oil theft and other issues.
The visiting reporters and media executives were stunned by Dangote’s revelations and many, including this writer, asked him not to be daunted by his ugly experiences. In the weeks that followed the media tour, journalists rose in unison in their commentaries and editorials to condemn corrupt government officials for their selfishness, greed and lack of patriotism in insisting on importation. Since then the federal government has made some efforts to ameliorate Dangote’s misgivings; these include crude oil sale in Naira to local refiners and discontinuation of the push for importation of fuel.
It is not clear if the business tycoon was sufficiently persuaded by Vicar Agbelusi’s appeals to change his mind. But one thing is clear: this nation needs more of Dangote’s unquantifiable business acumen and patriotic zeal. I just wish that others will step up to be counted. The cleric’s comments also reflect a deep sense of helplessness amongst Nigerians that the government has failed in its basic duties and that only the likes of Aliko Dangote can salvage the situation. I commend Vicar Agbelusi for his sense of purpose. This is why I like these so-called Orthodox churches. Their leaders have a deeper understanding of their purpose, and Aliko Dangote is fast becoming our national prayer point.
The stunted development of Nigeria’s steel industry as exemplified in the moribund Ajaokuta steel complex which has been abandoned since the 1980s is one of the reason the nation’s industrial base has not grown. Steel is a major input in industrial production, required in construction, infrastructure, buildings, manufacture of tools; ships; trains; cars, etc. Nigeria imports $4 billion worth of steel every year, according to Minister of Steel, Shauibu Audu who spoke at National Metallurgical Development Center, Jos.
“The president wants us to reverse this trend; he wants to ensure that most of the steel consumed in Nigeria is produced locally to reduce pressure on foreign exchange,” the minister said in a typical Nigerian official rhetoric and “sweet mouth”.
On the occasion of this year’s Armed Forces Remembrances Day (January 15), I send my heartfelt commendation and congratulations to the Chief of Defence Staff; officers and troops of our military for their sacrifices and service to the nation. I also salute the Inspector General of Police and all our police officers, together with the other security agencies and paramilitary forces for their good works, dedication and commitment to service. Our military and security forces are not without blemish (nobody is, actually), but on this occasion, I choose to focus on their successes and unflinching sacrifice in defending our fatherland. They’ve fought gallantly against terrorists, bandits, unknown gun men and other criminals in the last 15 years or so, and from all indications, these attackers, by whatever name they are known, have been largely subdued. Not long ago, terrorists were detonating bombs routinely in Abuja and its environs, and bombings and suicide attacks were a regular feature of daily life in Northern Nigeria. But over the last few years, our forces have fought hard to degrade these evil people and thwart a complete disintegration of the country. I therefore pay my tribute to the current and past commanders of the war threatres and the men and women who sleep in the trenches in the bush to keep Nigeria safe.
Our armed forces have faced many challenges since organized violence broke out in 2009, first as insurgencies and religious extremism before morphing into full blown terrorism. We overcame the embargo placed on sale of arms to Nigeria by the Obama administration when Dr. Goodluck Jonathan was the commander-in-chief. The armed forces also had to deal with several cases of internal sabotage and collusion with the enemy. The reluctance or unwillingness of people in the affected communities to provide intelligence to the authorities is a particularly difficult situation to deal with. Many in these communities have been radicalized to serve as suicide bombers and agents for the terrorists. In places like Kaduna, insecurity was also exacerbated by the provocative and insensitive actions of politicians like former governor Nasir el Rufai; while in places like Zamfara State, corrupt acts of previous political leaders led to escalation of violence. There were also cases of low morale amongst the rank and file and diversion and mismanagement of resources by those in charge. It is commendable that the military has emerged stronger from these crises.
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera Cable TV, the Chief of Defence Staff, Lt. Gen. Christopher Musa highlighted the need to trace financial flows and support that has sustained Boko Haram terrorists for 15 years now despite the military’s best efforts in degrading them. ‘’Each time we capture these terrorists, or each time they surrender, we find huge sums of dollars on them. How do they come by these dollars? How funds them?’’, Gen. Musa asked repeatedly, citing the group’s use of drones for surveillance as its new tactics. The CDS hinted at the involvement of international conspiracy in providing funding, training and equipment to the terrorists and bemoaned difficulties the country faces in obtaining necessary military equipment due to international constraints.
I commend Gen. Musa for speaking out, but I note that it is Nigeria’s responsibility to work with the international community to track these illicit flows of funds and tackle them. However, I the authorities should look in-country for the sources of funding for the terrorists. I strongly suspect oil theft and ransom payments as the possible sources of funding for the terrorists. Billions of dollars worth of crude oil is stolen every year from the Niger Delta and over N3 trillion is paid in ransoms to kidnappers every year, according to official statistics from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. These are the major sources of funding for Boko Haram. Gen. Musa should not look far when the problems (and perhaps the solution) are within sight!
Overall, our men and women in uniform have fought with bravery; strength; patriotism and dignity in the face of unmitigated difficulties. Just last week, the Defence Headquarters reported that ISWAP terrorist had killed six soldiers during a raid on its military base in Borno State; and in the fight that ensued, 34 terrorists were killed. Our soldiers are currently dealing with a new group of terrorists in the North West known as ‘’Lukarawa’’. I salute their sacrifices and I send my love and gratitude to the military families for their untold losses.
But the job is not yet done. To further enhance our collective fight against terrorism and other crimes, I support the establishment of state police in the country. I am aware of the reservations many people have against state police because of the potential for its abuse by governors, but I think that with adequate legislations and safeguards, we can mitigate against the abuses. The benefits of state police are legion and far outweigh the demerits. It will certainly improve efficiency of the overall policing efforts in the country.
ETIM is a journalist and author
[OPINION] Suya Spot Parliamentarians: Leaders Are The Demons We Create - Prince Charles Dickson Ph.D
Admin“If goat dey chop yam, na who open barn door we go ask.”
In the bustling streets of Nigeria, where the aroma of suya (spiced grilled meat) fills the air, the conversations that take place at these food joints often provide an informal yet powerful reflection of the country’s political climate. In many ways, these “Suya Spot Parliamentarians” embody the collective frustrations, aspirations, and beliefs of the Nigerian populace, offering a candid, if not humorous, lens through which we can better understand political leadership and its complexities.
I am intentional in my suya spot because for some reason Suya is not sold in the mornings in most parts of Nigeria, at best, we start the preparation in the afternoon. Either way, follow me in this conversation…
Suya spots, often informal, unassuming local eateries, have long been meeting ground for the everyday Nigerian, where the latest gossip, political discussions, and societal issues are shared with gusto. Here, amid the sizzling meat and spicy pepper sauce, Nigerians wax philosophical, sharing their views on national matters. These impromptu “parliaments” are a melting pot of ideas, perspectives, and critiques of the leadership in power.
The conversations are typically peppered with sharp wit and fervor, and more often than not, they reveal deep dissatisfaction with the political class. But what’s striking is the ease with which these leaders are vilified, reduced to mere “demons” in the minds of the masses. This is more than just frustration; it is a consequence of the systemic failure of leadership, where promises are broken, resources are mismanaged, and the average citizen feels increasingly disconnected from those they elect to lead them.
In a country like Nigeria, the relationship between the people and their leaders is often characterized by an unspoken yet palpable tension. The notion that “leaders are the demons we create” taps into a deep-seated truth: Nigerian leaders, for all their perceived faults, are not born into power—they are products of a system that allows them to thrive.
The electorate is complicit in this dynamic, too. Voter apathy, electoral malpractices, and corruption perpetuate the cycle of bad leadership. Nigerian leaders often rise to power through a mixture of patronage, promises of change, and the manipulation of public sentiment. Once in power, many fail to meet the expectations of their constituents, and instead of inspiring hope, they reinforce the sense of betrayal.
The reality is that these leaders are not foreign entities imposed upon us—they emerge from our communities, from our collective choices, and from the very system we participate in, whether passively or actively. When corruption flourishes, when politicians break promises, when national resources are looted, the Nigerian populace is often left lamenting the leaders who have failed them. Yet, these leaders are merely the reflection of a society that, in many instances, tolerates or even facilitates their rise.
One of the most significant issues within Nigerian politics is the chronic disconnection between leaders and the people. Over the years, the political class has become increasingly self-serving, creating an environment where national interests take a backseat to personal gain. This has resulted in the emergence of “leaders” who are more interested in amassing wealth and power than in serving the public.
However, the Nigerian electorate is not without fault. In a society where immediate gratification often trumps long-term vision, voters are sometimes swayed by promises of short-term benefits—such as a bag of rice, a token sum of money, or a plate of food. This transactional relationship between leaders and the electorate has become ingrained in the political culture, perpetuating a vicious cycle of electoral manipulation and unaccountable governance.
The result is a leadership class that often behaves like “demons” in the eyes of the people: those who consume the resources that should benefit the masses, those who create policies that serve their interests rather than the public’s, and those who remain disconnected from the everyday struggles of the people they were elected to represent.
While it’s easy to point fingers at politicians and lament the state of Nigerian politics, the responsibility for change doesn’t rest solely on the shoulders of the leaders. It lies with the citizens who must demand better leadership, who must hold politicians accountable, and who must push for systemic reforms that address the root causes of bad governance.
The way forward for Nigeria lies in the collective action of the people—breaking free from the cycle of patronage and transactional politics and embracing a culture of accountability and transparency. The country needs leaders who are not just figureheads, but true servants of the people, willing to sacrifice their own interests for the greater good.
Nigerians must also take the conversations from the suya spots to the voting booths. The “Suya Spot Parliamentarians” may have insightful critiques, but it’s time for these voices to translate into real political power. Civic engagement and active participation in the democratic process are crucial to reshaping Nigeria’s political future. It’s not enough to complain about the “demons” in power without understanding that we, too, play a part in the process of creating them.
I will end with a small story…a man stole a cap and brought it out for sale with notice to any prospective buyer that it was a stolen cap. A Man volunteered to buy at a given price.
On the following Saturday, the new owner wore the Cap to a wedding ceremony. The original owner coincidentally attended the ceremony, saw his cap from afar, and recognized the same.
He moved nearer to the Man wearing the cap, observed and ensured it was his stolen cap, greeted him, and asked where he came across the cap he was wearing.
The Man replied, “I picked it on the bed of my junior wife and I am looking for the owner myself. The Man removed the cap, handed it to the original owner for proper examination. The original owner checked and suddenly handed it back to the Man saying it’s not his cap but rather a look alike. In a couple of minutes, the original owner disappeared from the gathering without notice; hence sacrificing his cap.
The metaphor of “Suya Spot Parliamentarians” captures the essence of Nigerian politics: informal, outspoken, and often frustrated. Yet, this energy and passion for change must be harnessed and directed toward meaningful action. Leaders are indeed the demons we create, but they are also the ones we can choose to replace, reshape, or reform. Same way we need to ask, how intelligent are we in dealing with issues of critical interest to Nigeria, especially when we are addressing the leadership question.
Ultimately, the Nigerian people have the power to transform their country. It is not enough to sit in a corner and lament the state of leadership; it’s time to take action—through voting, advocacy, and participation—to build a leadership that genuinely serves the people, not just its interests. The question is, are we ready to break the cycle and create a Nigeria where leaders are held accountable, where corruption is no longer tolerated, and where the government truly represents the will of the people? Only time will tell, but the choice lies within us all.
—
Prince Charles Dickson PhD
The stark reality of unavoidable price hikes has woven itself into the fabric of the average Nigeria’s daily existence, a grim hallmark of an unyielding cost-of-living crisis.What began with increases in petrol, gas, transportation, interest rates, food, and power has now extended to telecommunications services. This unrelenting rise in costs has prompted many Nigerians to label the phenomenon the “Hike Economy.” The term encapsulates the frustration and despair of millions as essential services and commodities become increasingly unaffordable. At its core, this crisis is not just an economic challenge but a social one, threatening the very fabric of a society striving for development and stability. Understanding this trend and its implications has never been more critical. The pervasive impact of the “Hike Economy” demands urgent, innovative interventions to alleviate its burden on households and businesses, offering a glimmer of hope in these challenging times.
In 2023/2024, Nigeria recorded one of the highest inflation rates globally, with figures hovering between 25% and 36.4% by November 2024. This marked the highest inflation peak in 30 years, pushing more citizens into poverty. Inflation has permeated every aspect of the economy, making it seem as if Nigerians are destined to face new price increases daily. For example, the price of a 50kg bag of rice—a staple food item—rose from ₦40,000 in early 2023 to over ₦100,000 by late 2024, creating food insecurity for millions of households. The term “Hike Economy” reflects the relentless escalation of costs burdening households and businesses alike.
The latest manifestation of the “Hike Economy” is the impending increase in telecommunications costs. With the active support of the regulator, telecom companies are poised to raise prices, citing rising energy costs and currency devaluation. For instance, a leading telecom provider recently announced a 15% increase in data tariffs. While these reasons seem plausible, they warrant closer scrutiny. Rising energy costs have been exacerbated by Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel and the lingering effects of subsidy removal. Currency devaluation, a persistent issue in the Nigerian economy, raises operational costs for telecom providers who rely on imported technology and infrastructure. However, these factors do not tell the whole story.
Consumers often question why telecom companies fail to lower prices when such factors stabilise. For example, telecom tariffs remained unchanged during periods of lower global crude oil prices, which typically reduce energy costs. This one-directional trend fuels skepticism and frustration among consumers. A glaring example is the rollout of 5G technology in Nigeria. Touted as a game-changer for connectivity, its implementation has been marred by high costs passed on to consumers despite promises of affordability and accessibility. Such practices underscore the need for regulatory oversight to ensure price adjustments are justified and reflective of market realities. Without mechanisms for fairness and transparency, these hikes erode consumer trust.
The far-reaching effects of these price hikes deepen financial struggles for the average Nigerian. With household budgets already stretched, further increases in telecom costs will push many to the brink. For instance, a family spending ₦30,000 monthly on telephone and internet services may need to adjust to a ₦37,000–₦40,000 expense, forcing cutbacks on other essential needs. This move starkly contrasts the government’s promise to reduce inflation to 15% by 2025, raising questions about policy coherence.
Higher telecom costs threaten Nigeria’s vision of leveraging technology to drive economic revival. Affordable connectivity is a linchpin for progress in critical sectors like digital banking, education, healthcare, agriculture, and e-governance. A price hike risks derailing advancements in these areas, undermining efforts to build a robust, technology-driven economy.
Increasing telecommunications prices will exacerbate poverty and widen existing inequalities, hitting lower-income families the hardest. Informal sector workers who depend on affordable mobile data to access gig work opportunities may find it harder to stay connected. Small businesses, which rely heavily on affordable telecommunications for operations, marketing, and customer engagement, will face additional strain. A local trade group estimates that a 10% increase in telecom costs could reduce small business profitability by up to 7%, potentially leading to closures. Education, increasingly reliant on digital platforms, will also suffer. Higher costs will limit students’ access to online learning resources, putting global competitiveness further out of reach.
Telemedicine and remote healthcare services, which rely heavily on internet connectivity, may become less accessible to rural and underserved populations, widening healthcare disparities. Farmers and rural communities increasingly depend on mobile technology for market access, weather updates, and agricultural extension services. Rising telecom costs could disrupt these advancements, reducing productivity and economic opportunities. For instance, a farmer cooperative in northern Nigeria that uses mobile apps to connect with buyers and monitor crop prices could be cut off from critical market information due to increased data costs.
The telecommunications regulator plays a pivotal role in navigating this crisis. Regulatory bodies must prevent unjustified price increases, push for service quality improvements without adding financial burdens on consumers, and advocate for innovative solutions that balance operator needs with consumer affordability. For example, regulators in South Africa have successfully implemented price caps tied to inflation indexes to protect consumers. Such measures in Nigeria could mitigate the effects of the “Hike Economy” while supporting technological and economic growth. Transparency in telecom operators’ cost structures can also help consumers understand the rationale behind price adjustments, building trust and accountability.
The National Association of Telecoms Subscribers (NATCOMS) has opposed the planned hike, calling it insensitive in an already challenging economic environment. Their argument highlights the undue burden these increases place on consumers and the threat to Nigeria’s digital economy. As more Nigerians embrace digital solutions for education, healthcare, and commerce, higher telecom prices could force many to cut back on usage or disconnect entirely. This would reverse years of progress in digital inclusion, especially in underserved areas where connectivity is vital for accessing government services and economic opportunities.
Addressing the “Hike Economy” requires more than opposition; it calls for actionable strategies. These include encouraging renewable energy use to reduce operators’ power costs, offering tax incentives to telecom providers committed to affordable pricing, promoting public-private partnerships for infrastructure development, and establishing a price review mechanism to ensure fairness and transparency. For example, shared broadband networks in Kenya have reduced costs for telecom operators, resulting in more competitive data pricing for end users. Adopting similar strategies in Nigeria could alleviate the financial strain on both operators and consumers, creating a win-win scenario.
Connectivity is the backbone of Nigeria’s service-based economy. Price hikes in telecommunications risk jeopardising economic recovery, worsening inequalities, and stifling technological progress. Regulatory ingenuity is essential to combating these challenges. The focus must shift towards maintaining affordability, improving service quality, and ensuring telecommunications remain a catalyst for national development rather than a source of financial strain. Addressing the “Hike Economy” with empathy and innovation will be key to securing a prosperous and equitable future for all Nigerians.
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“Now to the oba-elect. Whoever sits on the stool of Oyo should never be seen at weedy, seedy joints. He must speak the language of his beginning and clothe his ancestors with velvets of respect and respectability. Shameful journeys he must not make. Strange words and/or gestures that attack the reason for his stool should not be his to say or make. We have seen enough wrong persons ‘shitting’ on ancestral beds. We cannot add Oyo to that rank. There was an Alaafin Abiodun for whose reign the people till tomorrow sing songs of praise. Abiodun’s successor was Aole whose reign made refugees of the people. The choice of who to copy is for the new moon to make.”
The oba under our law is not a king; he is a chief. That is why the law governing the appointment and removal of the oba and his ìjòyè is called Chiefs Law. The colonial government made it so. The oba was not recognised as king by the law – because the English king/queen was the sovereign here, and there could not be more than one king in a kingdom. They didn’t stop at that. What the oba occupied or vacated was a ‘stool’, not a ‘throne’. Only the English king or queen had a throne. And, one more thing: the oba was allowed to raise revenue but he must not call what he did “collection of taxes”; only His/Her Majesty, the King/Queen of England had that right. The revenue-raising privilege the oba had was known and called “imposition of tributes.”
Sixty four years after the British left, the law is still Chiefs Law; what the oba occupies is still the lowly ‘stool’, not a ‘throne’. Imposition of tributes or collection of taxes? The oba lost that power to the local government council. Ìgbì Aiyé Nyí. No condition is permanent.
‘Ìgbì Aiyé Nyí’ is a Yoruba novel that teaches the impermanence of power and privileges. Authored by T. A. A. Ladele, the title literally means ‘The Tide of Life Ebbs’ – or, in simple words, the cliche: “no condition is permanent.” In chilling details, we read the story of unbridled excesses and a humbling fall. From the mountain top of privileges, we read the Alaafin of Oyo, his palace and his chiefs descending the stairs to abject subjection. It is a book for every new king to read in their period of seclusion. I particularly recommend it to the three high chiefs of Oyo who are currently talking tough against their employers (the government) over the choice of their new oba.
In a contest between egg and stone, the result is easily predictable. No oba should think himself God – or government; and no chief must act like king. The past is in the past. In the past, one vote of the palace trumped sixteen votes. That vote today belongs to the state. This is not just about Oyo State. A new Owa Obokun of Ijesaland was chosen last month. Whose call was that? You have also seen the making of the Emir of Kano by one governor and his unmaking by another. The real chiefly kingmakers lost their scepter the day the British came and took power.
There is a gain in what has just happened: Future contestants now know the abortive result in kingmakers commodifying stools and thrones. Tomorrow, no kingmaker will find intelligent buyers for what belongs to all.
No oba will also think himself God tomorrow. The king was very powerful and divine in the past. But that part is buried in the past.
I once reported this: In the West Africa magazine of March 3, 1945 was a piece in celebration of the memory of Alaafin Siyanbola Ladigbolu I (1911 – 1944) who joined his ancestors a few months earlier. “The highest oath that an Oyo man could take was to swear by the head of the Alaafin,” the magazine wrote, and added that the people believed their oba was God. The oba himself thought himself so and he said so and acted so. How?
Eshugbayi Eleko was deposed as the Oba of Lagos in 1925 by the British. He was subsequently banished to Oyo town but he didn’t go quietly into the night; he went to court. During the ensuing celebrated case, evidence on some historical issues was needed in support of the deposed oba. It was to the Alaafin of Oyo that counsel to Oba Eshugbayi went.
Oba Ladigbolu was asked to swear an oath before his evidence was taken.
Alaafin queried in anger:
“By whose name?”
“By God’s name or by the name of your idol,” the lawyer told him.
“I myself am God!” The oba thundered.
That was hubris; he was too big to know that the horse of his powers had bolted. If you doubt the reality of how the Alaafin perceived himself in the statement above, maybe you should read another case recorded for him in history. It is the account of a visit of Ibadan Councillors I. B. Akinyele and J. Aboderin to Alaafin Ladigbolu on a peace mission on 1 October, 1934. It tells of what an Alaafin thought he was – and capable of doing.
The councilors left Ibadan and reached Oyo at 4:00 p.m. They reported themselves to the Resident. With the Resident, they went to the Aafin in company of the District Officer, Mr. Jones.
They then delivered the message of the Baale of Ibadan and of his council to the Alaafin: “In the olden time, our forefathers and your fathers were friends, and we earnestly wish that this friendship should continue. Your messengers have been treating our messengers with contempt and abusive language whenever we sent them to give you compliments and presents during the time you hold your yearly festivals. We do not like this sort of treatment any longer. If our friendship is to continue, our messengers should be treated with courtesy befitting our dignity. We do not presume that you are responsible for this kind of treatment that our messengers receive from yours. We would like you to take step to warn these messengers to stop this bad habit. We wish that we should maintain the old bond of friendship and live as neighbours in peace and harmony. Wishing you long life and prosperity. When we have delivered the above message, the Resident called upon the Alaafin to reply. The Alaafin then said that this message was not meant for him, and the Resident himself should reply to it. The Resident again reiterated the message, and explained it to the Alaafin. The Alaafin again said that the message was not meant for him. The Resident gave the gist of the message two times more and asked the Alaafin to give his reply to the message.
Then the Alaafin said: “Of all the inhabitants of Ibadan, with the exception of Oluyole, which of you has got a father? And, are you not all my slaves I used to send out on expeditions to fight my enemies?”
The Resident said that the Alaafin should not say that again, because in the Treaty of 1893 between Ibadan and Queen Victoria, his predecessor (the late Alaafin) admitted that the Ibadans are free.
The Alaafin replied:
“He! He! (Fie, Fie) I think all white men are the same. Captain Ross, my friend, had put them under me, and if you wish to take them away, you could please yourself. I know there is no else beside me but God. What shall I do with the Ibadan people? They do not work for me on the farm; they have not helped to construct roads in Oyo. What do they do for me? If any man wanted promotion at Ibadan I used to send my friend, Captain Ross, to elevate him; and if any appeared recalcitrant, I used to send my friend to punish him and remove. When I instructed Situ the Bale to promote one of my friends, and he did not listen, I worked his removal through my friend. I think you white men are the same and I think you adopt my friend’s policy, and if you do not wish to do so, you could please yourself, this means ‘Omi titun dé, eja titun dé’ (New water comes and new fishes come) Ten Kings ten times. You Resident are the new water and you are the new fish. It is your own look out, to manage the business as you like.”
The Alaafin said further:
“You, the two councillors, I want to give you a special message to Okunola who calls himself a Baale. Tell him he should remember that in his father’s family, no one has ever borne a title in Ibadan which is higher than AYINGUN. When he came to beg me here that I should give him a title, I asked my friend, Captain Ross, to go and promote him to the title of Ekerin, although he had not been a Mogaji before. When he wanted to become the ASHIPA, I again sent my friend to tell Situ, the Baale of Ibadan, that if he refused to make him the ASHIPA I would demote him and make the Ekerin Baale in his stead. When he wanted to be made the Balogun, it was the turn of Aminu, the son of Apanpa, to be the Balogun, but I took the turn from Aminu and gave him and promoted him to become the Balogun. When he wanted to become the Baale of Ibadan, I deprived Otun Ayodele who had the right to the post and made him the Baale of Ibadan. Whenever he quarreled with any of his wives, I used to settle the quarrel. If he could follow this Oyinbo (the new Resident) let him hold on to him. He should remember that when he had no horse, I gave him one. If that was the way he could show his gratitude, alright. He should remember that Situ had not done half of what he had done and he should remember how I hated him.”
The Alaafin then gave the councilors one turkey and one pound and sent them away.
The account above is as it is carefully set out on pages 933 and 934 of Toyin Falola’s ‘Ibadan: Foundation, Growth and Change, 1830-1960.’
The Alaafin who said all the above was the same Alaafin who died and was denied the customary company of courtiers on his journey back to his ancestors. You remember Wole Soyinka’s ‘Death and The King’s Horseman’? The historical incident that birthed that play happened at the exit of Oba Ladigbolu. His predecessors enjoyed the privilege of the company of their Olokunesin, the king’s horseman who must commit suicide and follow his late lord to the world of the dead. The white man said no to Ladigbolu’s Olokunesin; the king who said he was God went home alone, and lonely.
We hope the new Alaafin knows that he is appointed king and not God. We hope he learns from the tide that washed away his ancestors’ privileges. I hope he knows he is not coming in to become rich, become a pastor or an Imam. His coming is to retie the snapped rope of life of his land.
The people saw other trees in the forest before they settled on this òmò trunk for making the newest Gbèdu drum. The choice must always remember that fact and beat the right beat, sing the right song. When a prince is crowned king, he must never be seen again making good-luck charms – except he wants to become Olódùmarè. The one who did that was presumed seeking to be God. He should ask his predecessors for guidance.
Fifty years is a good age to enter the ancestral grove. When a child is invested with the Egungún costume, he has become an elder and must, therefore, be found with elderly conduct. Courage lives with leaders. A key wisdom the new king will hear in Ìpèbí is that one does not become an elder and yet lacks courage. Cowardice has consequences. He should ask Alaafin Ajaka.
The Alaafin institution is bigger than Oyo town, bigger than the oba and bigger than the chiefs. It cannot be abandoned as hostage to principals and principalities. What do you do when a calabash buries its face in the ground and won’t look up? The answer happened on Thursday and Friday last week. The chiefs are not the town.
Now to the oba-elect. Whoever sits on the stool of Oyo should never be seen at weedy, seedy joints. He must speak the language of his beginning and clothe his ancestors with velvets of respect and respectability. Shameful journeys he must not make. Strange words and/or gestures that attack the reason for his stool should not be his to say or make. We have seen enough wrong persons ‘shitting’ on ancestral beds. We cannot add Oyo to that rank. There was an Alaafin Abiodun for whose reign the people till tomorrow sing songs of praise. Abiodun’s successor was Aole whose reign made refugees of the people. The choice of who to copy is for the new moon to make.
n 22 August 2024, Olukayode Ariwoola, the penultimate Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) retired from the bench and transitioned into a published author. At a well-attended event in the Abuja, the former CJN beamed at the public presentation of his autobiography. Published under the title Judging with Justice*, the book was ghost written by Olanrewaju Akinsola (the author better known as Onigegewura).
The story reveals the son of a doting and committed dad who appears to take family and his faith seriously. Judging with Justice is a deeply personal story of a judicial figure whose rise to the highest office in his country’s judicial grease pole was as improbable as his route was unusual. The author is quite open in his disclosures about his health, including open heart surgery in London in 2016.
Olukayode Ariwoola became a lawyer at 27 and a judge at 38. In the eleven years that separated his enrollment at the bar from his elevation to the Bench, Olukayode Ariwoola worked first as State Counsel in Oyo State from where he resigned into private legal practice. That stint of his professional career began in Ibadan, the state capital, under the tutelage of Ladosu Ladapo, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) who twice ran unsuccessfully for the presidency of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA).
After one year of practice under the Senior Advocate, Olukayode Ariwoola chose to set up his own legal practice in Oyo, not far from his beloved natal community of Iseyin. At the time, there were only five lawyers in the city. Making ends meet was difficult and his clients were mostly reluctant litigants, many of whom had to improvise in order to find the currency for transacting business with a lawyer. He stuck with it and in 1992, the year after Oyo State was split in two to produce Osun State, got propelled to the office of a judge of the High Court of Oyo State by what from his narration surely was a stroke of providential happenstance. In the cohort of six new judges, Olukayode Ariwoola was the youngest by all of nine years.
After 13 years as a judge of the High Court, Olukayode Ariwooola got elevated to the Court of Appeal in November 2005. The major actors in his elevation to the appellate Bench included Aloma Mukhtar, who would later rise to become the first female Chief Justice of Nigeria; Bola Ige, a former Attorney-General of the Federation; and Bolarinwa Babalakin a former Justice of the Supreme Court. None of these three shared the same origins with Olukayode Ariwoola. Aloma Mukhtar came from Kano; Bola Ige and Bolarinwa Babalakin both came from Osun State.
After six years on the Court of Appeal, Olukayode Ariwoola ascended to the Supreme Court in November 2011, where he served for another 12 years before becoming the CJN. In all, his judicial career spanned nearly 32 years, including two years and two months served as CJN. All his judicial elevations (except his preferment to the office of CJN) occurred in the month of November.
Judicial autobiographies, especially in common law countries, are far from easy to confection. The balance between achieving a captivating narrative and preserving the mystique of the high judicial office is hard. The temptation to deodorize the tale can be tantalising. Judging with Justice wrestles valiantly with this dilemma and not always successfully.
The author offers about the Supreme Court that it is “more than a court of law. It is the tradition that the Supreme Court is regarded as a court of policy.” Having said this, the book offers no insight as to how the Supreme Court on which he sat for 13 years or the office of the CJN which he occupied for over two of those years, articulated or advanced this idea of the Supreme Court as a court of policy. If anything, the court did the opposite under him.
The best that can be said of the book and about its author is that they chose to be economical with any indication of a coherent judicial philosophy. Entirely in keeping with this, the author writes with what appears to be some pride that he never “had any cause to write a dissenting opinion be it at the Court of Appeal or at the Supreme Court.” He spent a combined18 years in both courts.
The author, nevertheless, drops hints of inspiration. He counsels, for instance, that “a judge must not frequent social events where litigants and lawyers congregate.” Those who read this may wonder whether he remembered it when he showed up in Port Harcourt in November 2022 to serenade politicians (many of whom had cases before his court) in their quest for electoral victory in elections that were then impending.
Many who were witness to Olukayode Ariwoola’s tenure as CJN will wonder when he came to what he claims in the book to be his long-held belief “that the judiciary is an independent and separate arm of government and should not be regarded as an appendage of the Executive or the Legislature”. The disposition of his entire term appears to have been the very opposite of these sentiments.
Judging with Justice is littered with a few more examples of warm and comforting shibboleths. Yet, it is what the book omits that is most telling.
The author thanks “God for the privilege to have been instrumental in the appointment of people into positions of responsibility”. As CJN, he sure had a lot of practice at this. He also claims that he always “ensure(d) that the persons to be nominated are credible, qualified, and people of proven integrity.” His record as CJN will show this claim to be worse than bogus.
At the end of his narration, the author tells with pride his achievements as CJN. Among these, he lists attainment at the beginning of 2024 for the first time in the 70-year history of the Supreme Court of full judicial establishment size of 22 (including the CJN). He also points to the appointment since 2023 of new judges to the various courts, including the Court of Appeal, the Federal High Court and the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory.
In Judging with Justice, Olukayode Ariwoola is punctilious in listing all the people whom he processed for appointment in that frantic sequence of judicial elevations that occurred during the year preceding his retirement as CJN. He takes fulsome paternal pride in the fact that his son – also named Kayode Taslim – “is a jurist like Judge Taslim Olawale Elias he was named after”, but omits to disclose that it was him, the father, who appointed the son to the role of judge (with no need for the helping hand of a Holy Ghost). He did not stop there, he also appointed his own daughter-in-law as judge, as well as the daughters of the President of the Court of Appeal; of the Chief Judge of High Court of the FCT; the daughter of his predecessor in the office of CJN; the wife of the Minister of the FCT; and many more high-up insiders too numerous to mention.
Judging with Justice missed an opportunity to show how a judiciary of sons, daughters, wives and even a few mistresses, meets the standard of “credible, qualified, and people of proven integrity.” He may have been closer to the mark if he had chosen to title the book “A Convenient Memory.”
A lawyer and a teacher, Odinkalu can be reached at chidi.odinkalu@tufts.edu
- Olukayode Ariwoola, Judging with Justice: The Autobiography of Hon. Justice Olukayode Ariwoola, GCON, The Chief Justice of Nigeria [As Narrated to Olanrewaju Akinsola, (Onigegewura)], (Lagos, Asco Publishers, 2024)
This piece is one of the technical notes that I used in some seminal conversations before now, one of many others that I consider should be shared, in spite of its seminal tone, for the benefit of public managers-learners who are spread all over the nooks and crannies of Nigeria and beyond, and for public education, In penning this contribution, I am interested in a sort of agenda setting that has the capacity to generate discourse around public cum civil service institutional reformulation and its framework of relevance especially in a postcolonial context like Nigeria. All across the world, public administration serves the purpose of outlining and concretizing the administrative agenda that allows the state intervene positively in the lives of the citizenry. This therefore places a huge responsibility on the public service—and the public administration scholarship and communities of service and practice—to get up to speed in outlining a pathway that will transform the professional endeavor into a sturdy representative of state activities and responsibilities to the people. Like every other endeavor, public administration must necessarily respond to the multiplicity of events, circumstances and occurrences that have come to define the world in the twenty-first century.
Public administration has come a long way since its first documented formation, with the rudimentary but fundamental beginning in the ancient pharaonic Egypt through to the high political intrigues and engineering feats of the Roman society to the exigencies of the industrial revolution of the nineteen century. In the twenty-first century, and all across the world, public administration is even more challenged by current circumstances shaping not only national administrative imagination but also international and global relations. In the first place, public administration is today immersed in what has been called a VUCA environment. This implies that public administration and its processes, procedures and institutional operations must be factored into an environment that is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. The VUCA world implies the myriad degrees of shocks, threats, cynicism, turbulence and challenges that governments all across the world must have to respond to in order to design and formulate policies that will resonate with the yearnings of an increasingly politically sophisticated citizenry. The VUCA environment is aggravated by what has come to be called a polycrisis, a fundamentally complex situation as a result of many crises, conflicts and complex issues reinforcing and complicating one another in sequences that aggravate any existing circumstances that humans and states find themselves. In such a situation of a polycrisis, the overall consequences and impacts of the complex crisis is greater than the sum of all the variables making it up. For example, poverty in the world today is now a function of climate change, economic recession, natural disasters, bad governance and political instability.
Within a VUCA environment, policies and their trajectories and dynamics cannot be considered as simplistic and linear endeavors. This is compounded by the fact that the status and role of the public manager, as the administrative and policy craftsman, has kept changing: (a) the ‘I am directed’ rule-oriented bureaucrat (public manager 1.0), (b) business-oriented and performance-focused manager (2.0), and (c) networking and relations-focused collaborator (3.0). This transition reflects the transformation of thinking about public administration and the public service from Max Weber to Woodrow Wilson and from the new public management (NPM) to the idea of new governance. The VUCA environment within which the twenty-first century public manager is expected to effectively and efficiently function is further complicated when it is considered from the perspectives of a postcolonial context like Nigeria. Africa is often considered as the most difficult administrative context in the world. And that is essentially because the organic maturation of public administration had been disrupted not only by colonial rule but also postcolonial consequences of a logic of extraction. This therefore implies that public administration and the public manager in Africa must not only anticipate and preempt current and recurrent challenges that ails governance on the continent, but must also be conversant with emerging trends and paradigms shifts that are determining the trajectory and possible directions that public administration is taking in the evolving fourth revolution and knowledge society mediated by digital and destructive technologies, from the blockchain and robotics to enterprise resource planning and big data.
Trend analysis therefore becomes a necessary and inevitable tool for prospecting for patterns, scenarios and variances in order to determine future prospects and achieve strategic decision-making. Trend analysis rely essentially on empirical and historical data and evidences to determine, monitor and forecast short- or long-term institutional changes that could constitute downtrends or uptrends for any particular endeavor. In public administration, it involves gathering historical and current data on emerging trends that could get the public managers to make decisive and evidence-based strategic decisions that would get the public service to perform more effectively and efficiently for better service delivery. This serves the purpose of empowering the public managers and public administration scholars and experts to gather valuable insights on how far public administration practices have come, the emerging developments that are shaping the practices, and the future prospects in the profession. It also enables public managers to generate crucial understanding of performance metrics that could keep pushing the boundaries of the operational functionality of the public service for optimal performance and productivity.
The most recent source of polycrisis all over the world was the COVID-19 pandemic that decimated millions of lives across the globe and facilitated in its wake what is now called the “new normal” in terms of human social relations, societal dynamics and structural cum institutional realignments. Humans have been forced to reassess normal patterns of doing things at some professional levels. We now work from home, adapted to a blended educational schedule, attend conferences and symposia virtually, and so on. In economic, social, political and even spiritual terms, there are now dramatic transformations that were instigated by the precarious developments of the COVID-19 pandemic. The new normal is enabled by digital and other new technologies and the new information dispensation to disrupt the usual dynamics of social, cultural and professional lives. The pandemic triggered a deluge of challenging situations for public administration and the public service to deal with. This can be likened in a sense to the administrative challenges that the Nigerian Civil War posed to Nigeria’s public service and those we now call the “super permanent secretaries.”
The COVID-19 pandemic struck most governments and their public administration dynamics at this critical service delivery point. And the tragedy of the pandemic is that it caught the entire world at varying administrative stages and phases of the normal. This is even worse for the third world countries, and Africa especially. Before the COVID-19 lockdown, the Nigerian public service system had been afflicted by a bureau-pathological protocol defined by a collusion between what we all know as the “Nigerian factor” and some damaging systemic debilities. The tragedy of the pandemic and of Nigeria’s unpreparedness for it has presented the public service system with a unique opportunity to reflect on and rethink its governance and administrative policies. And so, with the sudden transformation of the way we look at work and the workplace dynamics, the public service had to forcefully embrace what used to be the staple of administrative conferences and forecasting.
The transformation of the workplace, as part of the key reform for preparing public administration to manage the fourth industrial revolution especially in Africa, demands the deployment of human resource management to achieve performance and productivity. The transformation of the workplace and work ethics gives the public service the capacity to recruit a global workforce and create incentives that increase employee loyalty and commitment, and collaborations that generate productivity. This gives room for the achievement of a better work-life balance deriving from freer time and flexibility to work. It also crucially facilitates the acquisition of “twenty-first century literacies”: (a) interpersonal skills: facilitation, empathy, political skills; (b) synthesising skills: sorting evidence, analysis, making judgements, offering critique and being creative; (c) organising skills: group work, collaboration and peer review; and (d) communication skills: better use of new media and multi-media resources. The smart public manager must also factor into the mix the unique cultural and sociological demands that the emergence of the Gen Z, Gen Alpha and Gen Beta are bringing or will bring into the constitution of the workplace as a technology-enables space with its own peculiar generational dynamics. No conscious public manager will ignore the demands of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in making the workplace more broad-based and strategic.
Apart from the immediate need for flexible and remote work protocols that transformed the workplace and its dynamics, the imperative of open government suddenly got a new lease on life. Since the emergence of the new public management and the managerial revolution that drove it, the objective has been to achieve a government that is FAST—flatter, agile, streamlined and technology-enabled. And one way to do this is not only to install a performance management system, but to also facilitate an open government framework that allows for the co-creation of values through citizen engagement. For instance, a flat government demands that the distance between government and the citizens be decreased through the deployment of digital technologies and the social media and mobile technologies that increase the participation of citizens in administrative and decision-making processes. Open government therefore increase transparency and accountability in government decision making, remove red tape and hierarchies, and enable cross-sectoral collaborations.
The open government initiative also makes possible an open data platform that governments across the world are deploying to further facilitate citizens engagement and interactions with the policies of government. Through emerging communication and information technologies, governments make available data and information that the citizens can use. Tracking and mapping systems also help the citizens to interrogate government’s expenditures and decision dynamics. Open government and the open data initiatives are made possible by the right to information legislation that makes it imperative for the government, through its MDAs, to share critical information about its processes and procedures with its citizens. the open government partnership plays a crucial role in grounding the significance of the public-private partnership. This is achieved through a networked dynamic that open government and its deployment of communication and digital technologies make possible. The government can now draw the private sector into a governance space for tackling challenging administrative and governance issues that the government or the private sector could never tackle on its own.
The idea of open government and its potentials for making public administration more effective inevitably raises the specter of cybersecurity with regard to the value of big data, data sovereignty and how this could be compromised. For example, data sovereignty gives a government the control over sensitive information and data that its public administrative institutions and processes require to function effectively. It also prevents these data and information from unauthorized access or information mining and misuse that could compromise the significance and values of these data and information. Hence, governments need to manage the circumferences of its data sovereignty by monitoring and anticipating data breach and vulnerability. Public managers will therefore be tasked with the imperative of thinking more strategically about the critical relationship between open government, open access to big data, administrative efficiency and the threat of data breach through cyber-attacks. This inevitably demands the significant role of cybersecurity professionals who can anticipate and deal with cyber-threats as they emerge.
The reforms that will shape public administration of the future will be determined significantly by the capacity of public services across the world to leverage digital, communication and information technologies to both create strategies and be strategic. Creating a strategy, on the one hand, is a process of translating a plan into a set of results. On the other hand, however, being strategic is a competence that involves critical thinking. The two point at the urgent need for the public service to generate strategic thinking required for the change management that will move the institution forward into more optimal functionality and productivity. Both must be channeled institutionally to the most central process of strategic decision making. Creating strategies and being strategic in administrative decision-making demands the deployment of new thinking and developments in decision science.
Decision science has become a critical field that has integrated cognate developments from artificial intelligence, organisational psychology, systems thinking, machine learning, probabilistic modeling, scenario analysis, big data analytics, and many more to become a key area that the public service must buy into to push forward its policy intelligence that strengthen decision-making. Modern policy making that has taken cognizance of decision science will most likely possess nine fundamental features: (i) forward-looking; (ii) outward-looking; (iii) innovative, flexible and creative; (iv) evidence-based; (v) evaluation; (vi) review; (vii) joined-up; (viii) inclusive; and (ix) learned lessons.
Artificial intelligence plays a critical role in decision science and strategic decision-making for the public administration of the future. AI possesses a huge significance for the objective of making the public service an efficient institution for democratic service delivery that optimize democratic governance. AI not only makes possible the digitization of crucial data and information, it simplifies routine and tedious tasks, and fast tracks data analysis. It is also inevitable in facilitating the open government and open data aspiration that transform public administration. However, in deploying AI in public administration, the public manager must factor the multiple ethical and legal concerns, especially in terms of human rights issues that links AI to labour issues and industrial relations.
The last fundamental trend that public administration must factor into its reform is the emergence of a flexible, updated and up-to-date curriculum that benefits from the contemporary discourses on public administration, current administrative practices, and also feeds administrative education and training. The curriculum will feature syllabus on artificial intelligence and its critical significance, the role of new technologies in public service efficiency, human resource management and the new workplace, the imperatives of open government, etc. The curriculum, for example will explore the relationship between the public service and commercial/market tools, analysis, techniques and models for gathering commercial data that will enhance the effectiveness of the public service in terms of project management, asset and facility management, outsourcing, contract awards, and so on.
[OPINION] Olajumoke Oniburedi’s comeback: Lessons for education advocacy - Oluwatoyin Ajilore-Chukwuemeka
AdminIt was in the late hours of the night. I was scrolling through my YouTube feed, a space I rarely find myself aimlessly searching through. But this night was different; I hadn’t gone too far when I saw the familiar face on the thumbnail of one of the suggested videos. It was Olajumoke Oniburedi.
I was immediately interested. I had thought about her not too long before that fateful night and wondered what happened to her after her sudden “grass to grace story”. If you’re unfamiliar with her story, Olajumoke is the popular bread seller who stumbled into TY Bello’s photoshoot with the British Rapper, Tinie Tempah and got captured in one of the pictures.
Suddenly, Olajumoke was a sensation. From gifts of a rented apartment to a launch into a new modelling career with local and international appearances and an opportunity for adult education, her story became a modern-day fairy tale. Many started praying for their own “God of Olajumoke” moment.
However, over the last few years, Olajumoke vanished from the public space, warranting curiosity about what had happened. That was why I couldn’t ignore the YouTube video—a City FM interview where she shared her side of the story. What I heard was heartbreaking: a mix of domestic abuse, poor decisions stemming from a lack of education and exposure, and exploitation by others had derailed her once-promising new life.
As I watched, I couldn’t help but wonder how differently things might have turned out if Olajumoke had been properly educated. It hurt to learn that she dropped out of the adult education programme she started during her rise to fame. I wondered how different some of her choices might have been if she had some form of education. Toward the end of the interview, she reflected on her experiences, acknowledging how her lack of education made her vulnerable to predators and poor decisions. Now, she’s committed to prioritising her education moving forward.
Her story reinforced to me that education is about so much more than professional or technical skills. It shapes how we see ourselves, the world, and the choices we make in every area of life. Aside from knowing this from research and observation, I also know this from personal experience. While my education certainly advanced my career, its most profound impact has been on my personal life. It’s helped protect me, guide my decisions, and expand my worldview.
In a previous article, I argued that the benefits of education go far beyond academic or industrial success. It develops personal, social, and intellectual capacities that influence every aspect of a person’s life. Education advocacy must be expanded beyond touting education only as a tool for the economic and industrial advancement of nations. Although education plays a huge role there, it also has way more implications than only equipping people to get a job.
Olajumoke’s journey is a powerful example. Although her education wouldn’t have made her stumble into Ty Bello’s photoshoot, it might have helped her sustain and fully maximise the opportunity when it came. And it might equip her with the worldview she needed to protect her from unnecessary pain. The silver lining in her story is that she’s getting a rare second chance. I love how much she now values education and is actively pursuing it.
Olajumoke’s story also highlights the growing importance of adult education, a cause that often gets overlooked in favour of advocating for young learners’ education. While that’s essential, Olajumoke reminds us why adults, too, need access to formal education—no matter their background or past experiences.
Education truly is for everyone. It’s not a scam, even for those whose careers may veer away from their academic training. It’s a tool for personal growth, second chances, and reshaping lives. My hope is that we continue advocating for education in ways that show its multidimensional contributions to human life and make it accessible to all—regardless of age, background, or the twists and turns of life. After all, Olajumoke has shown us that it’s never too late to learn, grow, and rewrite your story.
Oluwatoyin is a STEM education doctoral researcher, social impact founder and education policy advocate. She writes from Nigeria and the United States.