The Yoruba believe in the law of causation, a principle of philosophy which says that, every change in nature is produced by some cause. To buttress this, they posit authoritatively that a tree will never fall in the forest and kill peasants at home. Following this causative trail, they also say that rafters will never sink and kill a passerby (Igi kìí dá l’óko kó pa ará ilé; àjà kìí jìn k’ó pa èrò ònà). Sakara music lord, Yusuff Olatunji, appropriated an ancient Yoruba words of incantation while paying obeisance to the powers and principalities of this world, otherwise called coven initiates, the “àwòròsàsà”. By doing this, he also explored this principle of causation. The rafters can never collapse at the tender feet of a climbing cat – “Àjà kìí jìn m’ólógbò l’ésè, ó d’owó èyin àwòròsàsà,” he sang.

How true for all seasons are these aphorisms? For the recently deceased General Taoreed Abiodun Lagbaja, the trees in the forest of a soldier fell while he was fighting wars in reptiles-laden forest and several deadly operations in creeks. They didn’t kill him. Those same trees, in the form of a mere disease, fell and, like a hawk picks a chicken off existence, he is suddenly killed.

Danish philosopher, poet and social critic, Soren Kierkegaard, reminds us that death is the only finality and certainty. While every other thing about life is finite, with death, it is as sure as the sun will rise. Kierkegaard however said that death is an uncertain certainty because it is not constrained by time nor circumstance. It can strike at any time. Yoruba’s perception of death is not dissimilar to this. They see Death as one insufferable, ugly, wicked and charcoal-dark gnome whose sense of justice is zero. Kierkegaard is almost at one with this ancient Yoruba epistemology of dying and death. He said that, in death, the dead return to dust, to nothingness that they had always been. He proceeds to say that the dead’s efforts to leave any form of immortality of name behind them get frustrated by the hand of time.

Nigeria’s Chief of Army Staff, General Lagbaja died on November 5 at the age of 56, allegedly from the pangs of cancer. Last Friday, he was given his rites of passage into the bosom of Mother Earth, what humanity profoundly labeled “ashes to ashes, dust to dust.”

In its zero sense of justice, Death offers no explanation for the pain it brings when it perpetually annihilates persons whose births are celebrated. Every hour, humanity loses hundreds of its earthly migrants, reducing them to one unwanted mound flushed six feet beneath earthly surface. The finite nature of man and his perishability were espoused by late reggae musician, Majek Fashek, when he sang “heaven and earth will pass away…but my guitar will never pass away.” If the dead have the power of cognition at their departure, Majek must by now have realized that, against his musical submission of how finite every other thing but his guitar was, the totality of the human race is finite. This includes individuals and cultures which pass away. Everything, including everything about man, eventually passes away. Kiekergard espoused the above in his book entitled At a Graveside’: Three Discourses on Imagined Occasions.

From all the testimonials about him, Lagbaja was apparently a good man. His classmate at St. Charles Grammar School, Osogbo, 1984 set, Bimbo Kolade, in a moving tribute to a man he called by his acronym, TAL, fittingly described his passage as the calamity wreaked on a pod of kolanut by diseases and pests. A kolanut pod can be afflicted by a variety of fungi, one of which is called Penicillium. These fungi cause the nuts to discolor, shrink, or rot. Pests like Kola weevil, moth and worms can also attack kolanuts. When they do, they bore deep into its earthly existence, remove nourishment from it and ultimately take away its masculinity.  In his dirge to Lagbaja, Kolade seemed to have gone into the rafters where ancient Yoruba elders keep their possessions and philosophically explained the impact of Lagbaja’s passing. He had written, “Kòkòrò ‘ò jé a gbádùn obì t’ó gbó,” translated to mean, the kola weevil has delinked us from the benefit of chewing a rotund and mature-to-eat kolanut.

Another colleague of his’ in the military, General J.J. Ogunlade (rtd), former General Officer Commanding (GOC) 8 Division Sokoto and Force Commander, Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), in another moving tribute, said “Lagbasky,” the pet name he used to call him, was “one of the most seasoned field commanders in the Nigerian Army,” who he “had the honour of collaborating (with) on numerous operations,” while lauding his “exceptional skills as an infantry soldier and his remarkable prowess as a paratrooper” which “highlight a profound dedication to his responsibilities.”

Professor of anthropology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Eyal Ben-Ari, in his Epilogue to Considering Casualties, a Special Issue of the Armed Forces & Society journal (2005, Vol. 31, No. 4) espoused the theory of “good death” in the military. According to him, “militaries around the world must deal with – handle, manage, or interpret – the casualties perpetrated by them and suffered by their own members.” In other words, the military not only manages violence, injury and demise of its members which include deaths in battles, skirmishes, or engagements, it must also manage the fatalities attracted from traffic accidents, sicknesses, suicide, or training. The military top echelon in virtually all countries prioritizes the welfare, death and remembrance of their compatriots. They get sunk into every aspect of their lives, as well as their deaths. The military, in other words, said Ben-Ari, is responsible for soldiers’ body-building, their bodies-in-use, their body-bags and their “body disposal.”

Taking its cue from a hunter’s traditional funeral rites for a departing hunter which the Yoruba call ìsípà ode, the Nigerian military, on Friday, saw off its late Olúóde (Head of hunters), Lieutenant General Lagbaja at the National Cemetery in Abuja. A solemn moment, the ìsípà was attended by top military brass, government officials and members of the diplomatic corps. If you have ever witnessed an Ìrèmòjé – a Yoruba chanting of poetry and rites of passage for a departing hunter – what the military did in Abuja on Friday was a fitting mimicry. Tributes, similar to chants of a deceased hunter’s cognomen and family poetry, marked the rites for Lagbaja with the Olori Olúóde, the Head hunter, or the Ológbojò, head of the masquerades, Nigeria’s Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, President Bola Tinubu, not only attending the burial of his leading war chief, but handing him a posthumous national honour. While conferring the Commander of the Federal Republic (COR) on Lagbaja, Tinubu said it was a mark of appreciation for his invaluable contributions to Nigeria’s security. Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, in his tribute, also described Lagbaja’s passing as a call to action for the military.

Perhaps out of esprit de corps, awareness of their own perishability as well or keeping with an ancient tradition they felt they were compelled to honour and reify, traditional Yoruba hunters also keep the memory of a deceased hunter alive. By the way, in traditional Africa, hunters were the soldiers who represented the military command. Warriors like Ogedengbe Agbogungboro of Ijesa land, Basorun Ogunmola and others were hunters and generalissimos. The ìsípà is thus, in a way, a celebration of the god, Ògún. This deity, who became an Alaafin of Oyo, in his early life, was said to have been a hunter. While deifying Ogun, he is memorialized as the controller of all human iron implements which ranged from cutlasses, guns, to swords. Bade Ajuwon, in his “The Preservation of Yoruba Tradition through Hunters’ Funeral Dirges,” published in the Journal of the International African Institute, (Vol. 50, No. 1, 1980), delved into the intricacies of the funeral for the hunter. The Ìrèmòjé, a performance of Yoruba hunters’ funeral dirges, according to him, “is of great human interest because it is an indispensable rite at all the major crises that may affect members of the hunters’ guild.” He said it is evidently a means of emotional outlet for the hunters left behind by the deceased and his family.

Yoruba mythology believes that Iremoje was a coinage by Ifa, who is known as “the god of wisdom and of divination.” Ìrèmòjé is actually a lamentation personally demanded by the Ogun as a performance by his followers “as part of a rite of passage for deceased hunters from earth to heaven.” Ogun was said to have decreed the model of the performance of Ìrèmòjé for the emulation of his followers. Its observance is a ritual used to propitiate their god, a means of communicating with a deceased hunter, and also used to make a thorough appraisal of, in the words of Ajuwon “the successes and failures of deceased hunters in their professional career on earth.” While the Ìrèmòjé is being chanted, a significant historical connection is made with the ancestors of the deceased hunter, emphasizing the hunting victories and heroic deeds of the late hunter. “They praise (the late hunter’s) fine character, his kind heart, his professional skills and techniques, commend his memorable deeds as a hunter, or at least the courage with which he faced ordeals in life,” said Ajuwon. In another journal article, Àjùwòṇ said the Ìsípà Ode rites represent “to the Yoruba hunters a final separation of the deceased hunter from the earthly hunters’ guild. It is the hunters’ belief that once the deceased hunter finally loses his membership in the hunters’ earthly guild, he shall no longer hunt with the living hunters.”

Two Yoruba Ìjálá and Ìrèmòjé chanters who represent the finest art of and who were the most popular ìjálá artists are/were Ògúndáre Fọ́yánmu and Àlàbí Ògúndépò who incidentally hail from Ogbomoso, Oyo State. While Fọ́yánmu’s poetry was a popular brand in the 1970s/80s/90s in Yorubaland, and sold in vinyl, I saw an old but agile Ògúndépò the other day at the burial rites for late ex-Secretary to the Oyo State Government, Adeniyi Koleosho doing what he has almost a global renown for.

The way militaries all over the world deal with the casualties they suffer, the ways in which they deal with their own fatalities are not dissimilar from the way traditional hunters deal with their own dead, too. The question has always been why the military command and the Nigerian state, had to do what they did for Lagbaja on Friday, spending humongous resources and time? Ayo Adeduntan, in his What the forest told me: Yoruba hunter, culture and narrative performance, (2019) citing an earlier Ajuwon submission, gave an explanation. According to him, it was an act of “terminating interaction with the dead.” He justified the Ìsípà ode for hunters thus: “Since all hunters straddle the spiritual and the physical realms… Considering that the hunter’s encounter with spirits, sometimes of the dead, is often anything but friendly, he finds it more agreeable to redefine relations with one’s own dead so that they find their rightful place as ancestors to whom the living hunters must relate as superiors instead of joining the sundry footloose spirits that trouble earthly hunters.”

As myths most times surround passages of the Olúóde, myths also surround the passage of Lagbaja. The late Chief of Army Staff hailed from Ilobu, in Irepodun Local Government of Osun State, a town which straddles two others, Erin Osun and Ifon who are constantly warring with one another. At his death, some traditionalists and the people of his hometown alleged that Lagbaja’s death was unnatural. The spiritualists also declared that Lagbaja’s spirit could be invoked for vengeance on those connected with his early passing. A traditionalist, Awopegba Ifagbemi pleaded with the Federal Government to release Lagbaja’s corpse to them for a spiritual exercise that would fight his perceived killers. Another said his “killers would not go scot-free.” Lagbaja was said to have begun the building of a hospital for the people of his Ilobu town but the adjoining town claimed the land belonged to it, necessitating the late General building same hospital in the three warring communities. Some people were said to have believed that the people who killed him were the “kòkòrò ‘ò jé a gbádùn obì t’ó gbó”-the kola weevil which transformed into the cancer that allegedly ate up Lagbaja.

Tinubu, the Chief Olúóde’s bestowal of a posthumous COR honour on Lagbaja may also have its roots in the totem of Yorubaland. In very many communities, Yoruba people honour fidelity agreement with even animals. Odidere, the parrot, for instance, is an iconic bird which is a symbol of the city of Iwo due to the significant role it played in the creation of the city.  Another case in point is the relationship of the snail to the people of Erin-Oke, located in same Osun State. A mythical accident of history in the 18^th century which involved King Akinla Aladekomo was the precursor of the remembrance of this fidelity. Akinla had a ravishingly beautiful wife called Omolere, who one day went to the farm with her maid. On getting to the farm, the Queen reportedly dropped her Iró, the cover-cloth, on a tree while she got embroiled in the task of pruning of weeds. As she did this, small snails which in Yorubaland are called Ìpére, crawled down to the Queen’s clothing and as they crawled, spat their traditional sticky saliva which, when dry, resembles a man’s semen, on it.

When the Queen got home and her husband the king saw the curious hieroglyphics which he took for a sign of sexual intercourse, suspecting adultery, he was furious. Though the Queen pleaded her innocence, the King disclaimed all entreaties and exploding in a fit of anger and impetuosity, ordered that the Queen be beheaded, alongside her maid, who he reasoned must have witnessed the adulterous session but failed to disclose it. Unfortunately, at the death of Queen Omolere, Erin-Oke began to witness the spiritual import of this tragic murder. A string of calamities began to happen in the entire sleepy town which included poor harvests, violent storms, pestilence, epidemics, sudden and premature deaths, among others. The town’s Ifa oracle diviner declared to the king that he was the harbinger of these calamities. As an appeasement of the warring spirit of the beheaded Queen, Ifa recommended deification and eternal remembrance of Queen Omolere. Her effigy was carved and painted in her favourite red colour while small snails, the Ipere, became a taboo for Erin natives which they must never touch nor eat.

Another totem eternally venerated in Yorubaland in the mould of Lagbaja’s COR is the monkey. This is done by the people of Owo in Ondo State. Town remembrancers say that, on their journey from Ile-Ife, the progenitors of Owo people enjoyed a special help from some monkeys who guided them through the forests to their present location. As fidelity with their benefactors, Owo kings, rulers and traditional priests decreed eating of monkeys a taboo among the town’s indigenes, whether they are within or outside the town, wherever they reside.

The death of General Lagbaja, as philosophers say, is a pointer to death as an individual experience. You will die your own death and I will, mine. German philosopher, Martin Heidegger, in his “Being and Time” postulations, has a response to those who lament that Lagbaja died in his plumule, even before he flowered. Heidegger said, “As soon as we are born, we are old enough to die.”

Sleep well, the Olúóde of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Phillip Adenekan Adekunle Ademola had everything it takes for an excellent career at the highest levels of a judicial career. He was the grand-son of a king, the son of a chief justice and a prince in his own right. In another era, he could easily have become the first second generation Chief Justice of Nigeria. It was his destiny to make neither and many still believe that he could well have been the ablest justice of the Supreme Court Nigeria never had. 

Born 27 July 1926, Adenekan Ademola finished his high school at Kings College in Lagos in 1944 and attended Higher College Yaba before proceeding to the University of London from where he graduated with a degree in law. When he qualified as a lawyer in 1951, his dad was already a judge, only the third Nigerian to be so appointed. Adenekan Ademola practiced law for the next 19 years and spent three of those years also working as chairman of the finance committee of the Egba Divisional Council in present day Ogun state. 

When General Yakubu Gowon gazetted his appointment as a judge of the high court of the Western State of Nigeria on 18 June 1970, Adenekan Ademola was just 45 years old. His dad, Sir Adetokunbo Ademola, an Egba blue blood, had been in office as the CJN for 12 years. It was two years before Sir Adetokunbo retired as CJN. Five years after his appointment as a judge, in 1977, another soldier, Olusegun Obasanjo, elevated Adenekan Ademola into the pioneer cohort of justices of the court. 

A product of the mostly diffident judicial philosophy of the military era, he did not let the soldiers down. When some pesky Taiwanese litigants approached his bench in the court of appeal to hold the military to account for what looked like evident violations of human rights, Adenekan Ademola elegantly counselled judges to “blow muted trumpets.” It was only a matter of time, many thought, before his diligent service was requited by setting him on his way to follow in the footsteps of his celebrated father to the supreme court. Many made it there who had but a fraction of his ability and preparation.

In those days, judicial integrity was taken seriously and even the slightest whiff of integrity deficit or exposure attracted career consequences. Olumuyiwa Jibowu was the first Nigerian justice of the supreme court. His reputation as a judge appeared impeccable. In 1957, it emerged that Olumuyiwa had written a letter to an old friend, one Mr. Savage, which was said to have content that made references considered to be insalubrious about the leader of the National Council of Nigeria and Cameroons (NCNC), Nnamdi Azikiwe. One year later, when his name came up for consideration to become the first indigenous CJN, the contents of the letter were enough to force Olumuyiwa’s withdrawal from contention. The beneficiary was Adenekan Ademola’s dad.

Today in Nigeria, closeness to politicians is widely perceived to be a boost to judicial ambitions, not a constraint. A judge of the federal high court has recently gone on record to say that to be appointed a federal judge today in Nigeria, “one must either have the backing of the presidency or a political party”.

A widely respected continental medium recently reported under the caption “Why Nigerian judges love Nyesom Wike”, that the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is “lauded like a rock star in judicial circles”. Part of the reason for the judicial superstardom of the FCT minister is his material “generosity” towards judges. 

This was not always the standard judicial fare. 

The 1983 elections in Nigeria were quite contentious. Those were the first to be supervised by civilians under the presidential system. Many of the disputes over election outcomes ended up in court. Emmanuel Obioma Ogwuegbu, whose death at 91 recently became public, was then a judge of the high court of Imo state. He later joined Adenekan Ademola in the court of appeal. The year after Adenekan Ademola’s retirement, Ogwuegbu proceeded to the supreme court where he served for 11 years before retiring in 2003.

One night shortly after the 1983 elections, Obioma Ogwuegbu received an unusual night-time visitor at his official residence in Aba. Onyeso Nwachukwu who died in 2022 was a pious man, an Elder in the church, and the state chairman of the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN). On this night, the party chairman arrived with his wife, who blagged her way into the house by dropping the fact that she was a high school contemporary of the judge’s wife at the Community Girls Secondary School, Elelenwo, Rivers state.

Under the guise of a social visit, the party chairman visited to plead the cause of the beaten NPN governorship candidate, Collins Obi. The election petition was yet to be heard and the panel to hear it was not even announced. But the party wanted to advance the judge onto the panel as its “person”.

Obioma Ogwuegbu firmly reprimanded him before ushering him out of the house. 

On the grounds of the compound but unknown to the judge, the party chairman had parked a brand-new Range Rover car complete with cellophane frills. As Justice Ogwuegbu ushered him out of the house, he noticed the party chairman walking to slide into another well-appointed sedan. So, he asked who the owner of the new Range Rover was. In response, the party chairman sidled up to the judge to inform him that he was the proud recipient of the four-wheel gift for his end of year. 

Obioma Ogwuegbu smiled and pleaded with the party chairman to spare him further hardship. He explained that he had enough problems maintaining his Mercedes Benz car on his judicial salary and could not afford the financial exposure of trying to maintain an exponentially more expensive car. He insisted that the party chairman had to go with the car in the same manner that he brought it onto his compound. Obioma Ogwuegbu later begged off election tribunal duty because of this.

With reluctance, Onyeso Nwachukwu drove out in the Range Rover which was manifestly meant to bribe an honest judge. For the remainder of his life, however, he lived in awe of Obioma Ogwuegbu because, he said, the judge belonged to that rare breed who could not be bought.

Honorable Justice Emmanuel Obioma Ogwuegbu was part of a generation in which judging was a deservedly elevated calling. In return, society honoured people like him with the honorific “My Lord”, an acknowledgement that they were called to a job that is truly divine. Today, the senior-most lawyers publicly twerk to partisan orchestras conducted by people who were in professional diapers when they were already in the Inner Bar and judges are made to believe it is kosher to enjoy political joy-rides and be serenaded with four-wheel bribes by politically exposed persons.

There will be time to return to the matter of how judicial integrity descended into their current morass and to address what can be done about that. For the moment, it is time to honour the memories of a generation of men and women, epitomized by Emmanuel Obioma Ogwuegbu, who put the “honorable” into the appellation, “Honorable Justice.”

A lawyer and a teacher, Odinkalu can be reached at chidi.odinkalu@tufts.edu

Professor Christie Achebe and the Achebe family; Maurie McInnis, President, Yale University; Steven Wilkinson, Nilekani Professor of India and South Asian Studies, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Henry Luce Director, the Whitney and Betty MacMillan Center for International & Area Studies; Vice Provost for Global Strategy, Professor Cajetan Iheka, Convener, Director, Whitney Humanities Center, Chair, Council on African Studies and Head, Yale Africa Initiative; distinguished professors and scholars, esteemed guests, students, ladies and gentlemen. Without being immodest, I will begin by saying that it is appropriate that I was invited to deliver the keynote address at a gathering in honour of the late Professor Chinua Achebe. Not just because I have been Head of State and President of Nigerian on two different periods of our beloved nation’s history – most will agree fairly successfully - but because I have known the man, his work, and his values for as long as our Nation has been in existence. He was a great and distinguished Nigerian. Yale university would be correct in their belief that Achebe belongs to the world - and therefore to them as well - but I am here to tell them that he is an African Icon that belongs to Nigeria first. The Igbo amongst us – his own ethnic people - will remind us that within Igboland he is known as “the Eagle on Iroko” – the “king of the birds” perched on the tallest tree in the African rainforest - a title that encompasses the reverence and awe in which he was held. 

As Head of State of Nigeria, I oversaw the establishment of the Nigerian National Merit Award (now known as The Nigerian National Order of Merit Award (NNOM)- Nigeria’s highest award for outstanding academic and intellectual contributions to the growth and development of Nigeria. The young people in the room will be pleased to know that the first recipients of this prestigious award were Professor Chinua Achebe, Professor Teslim Olawale Elias, Professor Thomas Adeoye Lambo, and Alhaji Abubakar Imam. They were all conferred with the merit award in 1979 by a debonair, young Head of State named Olusegun Obasanjo. I was 42 years old at that time. That same year, Achebe accepted a national award from me as well. That he later, developed an aversion to National Awards is a topic for Yale University’s epistemological researchers to uncover. I invoke jest to parlay into a much darker topic for which we are gathered here to address: The failure of governance in Nigeria and the near collapse of our Nation State. What better way to tackle this uncomfortable topic than to revisit a short, classic treatise published in 1983, called The Trouble with Nigeria, by non-other than Chinua Achebe. Leadership: The Nigerian Conundrum Achebe opens that slim book like this: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership. There is nothing basically wrong with the Nigerian character. There is nothing wrong with the Nigerian land or climate or water or air or anything else. The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness or inability of its leaders to rise to the responsibility, to the challenge of personal example which are the hallmarks of true leadership.” In hindsight, this forty-one-year-old prescriptive analysis on the root causes of Nigeria’s leadership crisis is quite moderate and appropriate. It is at least not as desolate as the diagnosis provided by Robert Rotberg and John Campbell, two prominent US intellectuals – the latter a former United States ambassador to Nigeria to boot: “Nigeria has long teetered on the precipice of failure,” they argue. “Unable to keep its citizens safe and secure, Nigeria has become a fully failed state of critical geopolitical concern. Its failure matters because the peace and prosperity of Africa and preventing the spread of disorder and militancy around the globe depend on a stronger Nigeria.”

At least, they acknowledge that Nigeria – the most populous and economically viable country on the African continent - is, as the Americans will popularly put it, “too big to fail…” Let us not fool ourselves, there is a lot to be concerned about, where Nigeria is concerned. For one, Nigeria’s GDP has declined from $510 billion – after it was rebased in July, 2014, by then Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and colleagues - to the recent revision downwards by the IMF to $199 billion today. By the end of my tenure in 2007, the country’s average GDP growth over my 8 years in office was 6.59 per cent (reaching 15.3% in 2002) – one of the highest in the world. This increase was attributable to the quality of the leaders we had in our government – the eminent, late, Bola Ige, General TY Danjuma, Adamu Ciroma, Sule Lamido, Mohammed Arzika, Liyel Imoke, Jerry Gana, Kanu Agabi, the aforementioned Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and several others who came on board in my second term. One of the stars of that cabinet, Mrs. Oby Ezekwesili, Former Minister of Solid Minerals and later Education of Nigeria is also here today. Other reasons for the country’s robust growth at the time can be attributable to reforms we instituted, especially in the private sector and service delivery. They include the liberalization of the telecommunications sector, the recapitalization exercise witnessed in the banking sector in 2004, pension scheme and administration and many areas of production and productivity and investment. I must not forget debt relief. The genesis of the Leadership Crisis Home grown, American based, political science experts Professor Obasesam Okoi and MaryAnne Iwara, in a recent article published by the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs explored the complex, cacophony of factors at the root of Nigeria’s leadership conundrum: “The failure of governance in Nigeria manifests in the declining capacity of political leaders to recognize systemic risks such as election fraud, terrorist attacks, herder-farmer conflict, armed banditry, and police brutality and put in place the necessary measures to navigate these challenges. In contrast with the current system in which leadership is attained through bribery, intimidation, and violence, Nigeria needs a system of governance that is founded on the pedigree of its political leaders and the education of its voters.”i So, what is to be done? I am sure you ask. To tackle and symbolically cut-off the head of this hydra-headed monster, Nigeria must address a number of these challenges head-on. 

Strengthening Democracy “The government is us; we are the government, you and I.” - Theodore Roosevelt I dare say that, that is when democracy works and delivers. The 2023 elections in Nigeria were “a travesty” by all rational measures. Following that problem prone exercise, electoral system reform is now among the top targets for change in Nigeria. Global think tanks such as the Pew Research Center, The Carnegie Foundation as well as the Electoral Knowledge network suggest that there should be three principal areas of focus – Legal, Administrative and Political. Electoral Management Bodies ( EMBs) – INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) in Nigeria - as well as its stakeholders will need to play distinct roles within the rubric of each area.

Legal: Many scholars and some well meaning Nigerians believe that Nigeria needs to take a closer look at our Constitution. We may have to “amend our constitution, electoral and/ or related rules, and regulations to enhance the integrity, relevance, and adequacy of the legal framework within which the INEC delivers its services. This may include institutional reform of the INEC itself.”ii ▪ Administrative: This will require several levels of intervention:

• Integrity of INEC officials. As a matter of urgency, we must make sure the INEC Chairperson and his or her staff are thoroughly vetted. The vetting exercise should yield dispassionate, non-partisan, actors with impeccable reputations. Nigeria must ensure the appointment of new credible INEC leadership at the Federal, State, Local government and municipal – city, town, and village levels - with short tenures – to prevent undesirable political influence and corruption, and reestablish trust in the electoral systems by its citizens. The INEC Chairperson must not only be absolutely above board, he must also be transparently independent and incorruptible.

• Political: Nigeria must find a way to prevent electoral interference at every level. Protecting elections from foreign as well as local malevolent actors is critical. Doing away with their malign influence is crucial for safeguarding democratic integrity and ensuring that election outcomes truly reflect the will of the people.iii On the local level, we should implement and enforce clearly defined financial regulations for political campaigns, establish effective control and enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance with financial regulations; and intensify activities to and secure the voting infrastructure – such as safeguarding the technology used to collate, transmit, verify, and disperse election results.

• Cybersecurity level: Prior to elections, we should have a transparent exercise (witnessed by international observers) where so called “penetration testing of the election system and infrastructure” is conducted for all to witness and verify. • Prevention of Electoral violence: Nigeria must ensure the physical security of the commissions and voters. Our security apparatus must be professionally trained to protect our citizens during elections not to be participants in electoral malfeasance.

• Foreign interference can undermine public trust in the electoral process and distort the democratic decision-making that underpins

the nation’s governance. Additionally, preventing such influence and interference helps maintain national security and protects the sovereignty of the electoral system from external manipulation.^iv ▪ ▪ ▪ Voter Registration and Identification: We must ensure that our voter rolls are accurate and up to date and free from interference from the political class or any other corrupting influences. Ballot Security: INEC must ensure that it institutes ballot security to prevent tinkering or unauthorized access – manually or by cybercriminals. Ballot security also means the secure storage and transport of ballots to collation centers to prevent any form of interference. Vote Counting and Reporting: Let’s be clear: The Bimodal Voter Accreditation

System (BVAS) and INEC Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV) are two technological innovations that prior to 2023 were celebrated for their promise. They were to “potentially” enhance the accuracy and transparency of our election results, eliminate the threat of election rigging, and boost public trust in electoral outcomes. These technologies were touted by the INEC chairman himself. In the end, these technologies did not fail. INEC willfully failed to use or implement them which resulted in widespread voting irregularities.v It was a case of inviting the Fox into the hen house. ▪ Improving our Educational System: The French statesman and lawyer Maximilien Robespierre famously stated that: “The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of tyranny is in keeping them ignorant.” The great Nelson Mandela reminds us that: “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” Our own Achebe implores that “A functioning, robust democracy requires a healthy educated, participatory followership, and an educated, morally grounded leadership.” Professor Obasesam Okoi and MaryAnne Iwara call for epistocratic governance and electoral practices, greater civic engagement and provide a salient explanation of Nigeria’s election woes and a path forward: “In Nigeria, the majority of citizens are uneducated on political issues. Simultaneously, those who are highly educated are increasingly becoming indifferent to political participation; they have lost faith in the power of their votes and the integrity of the political system…in Nigeria, there must be significant improvements in literacy levels so that citizens are educated about the issues and can use their knowledge to make informed decisions about Nigeria’s political future. It is important to mention that Nigeria’s political elites have exploited illiteracy to reinforce ethnic, religious, and political divisions between groups that impede democratic ideals…The Constitution must ensure that only citizens who can formulate policies and make informed decisions in the public’s best interest can run for public office. When the Constitution dictates the standard of [ governance], informed citizens will be better equipped to champion political leadership or determine the qualifications of their leaders.”^vi Unfortunately, like many other sectors, the educational system in Nigeria has collapsed. Nigerians are excelling in every academic discipline globally, why have we allowed our educational system to rot back home? In order for Democracy to thrive, we must collectively rebuild our once envied educational sector. The starting point for me is paying adequate attention to popular education to ensure education for all. A situation where 24 million children that should in school and are out of school does not augur well for our present and our future. The second task here would be to pull together the ‘best and brightest experienced minds’ in education to help us achieve some of the following goals: 

Revamping our entire educational system. Mediocrity runs rampant in many spheres of Nigerian society. There has to be an increased emphasis on excellence, accountability and performance at all levels including within the Educational sector to salvage it.

• This will require great leadership and financial commitment from the private and public sectors. I know that we can get support from our development partners. ▪ ▪ Transparency: We must put in place post election audits and transparent processes – clear documentation and paths for meticulous and free and fair voting, and credible electoral system - that builds trust and comfort for all stakeholders and voters.vii Again, more on Cybersecurity: “In an age where cyber threats are increasingly sophisticated, protecting election systems from hacking, data breaches, and other cyberattacks is vital. This includes everything from the security of voter databases to the protection of websites used to report results.”^viii We saw this cybersecurity failure play out during the last election and we must make sure it never happens again. ▪ Impunity: Politicians corruptly getting themselves declared as winner in an election where votes do not matter and asking winner declared loser to go to court where justice cannot be assured is the easiest and best way to kill electoral democracy. Corruption in Nigeria “Among a people generally corrupt, liberty cannot long exist.” - Edmund Burke.

Let me return to Achebe and the Trouble with Nigeria for clarity of perspective on the Nigerian dilemma. According to Chinua Achebe: “… Corruption goes with power; …therefore to hold any useful discussion of corruption, we must first locate it where it properly belongs – in the ranks of the powerful…Corruption in Nigeria has passed the alarming and entered the fatal stage; and Nigeria will die if we keep pretending that she is only slightly indisposed.” Ranked 150 out of 180 countries in the Transparency International 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index, 1 Nigeria’s ranking places it in the bottom 20 per cent of the comity of Nations; and illustrates how systemic and embedded corruption is in the country. It is, in my opinion, and those of many, the most serious developmental challenge to the nation. ^ix When I joined Peter Eigen to establish Transparency International on May 4, 1993, we saw corruption as possible death knell of development and democracy. The Economic and Commission (EFCC) Financial is a Crimes Nigerian law enforcement agency promulgated to tackle corruption in Nigeria. It is but one of numerous bodies – buttressed by Acts and laws - established in Nigeria to tackle and address the exponential growth of corruption in the country. Nigeria’s Report Card on Corruption To get a snapshot on how Nigeria is faring in its fight against corruption (some cynics will say cuddling or even, promotion of corruption), we need not look further than the UNODC ( the United Nations office of Drugs and Crimes) in its publication: Corruption in Nigeria: patterns and trends, 2024,x which provides novel conclusions while identifying several areas of deepening pathology:

a) In 2024, Corruption continues to rank among the most important problems affecting Nigerians.

b) More than NGN 700 billion in cash bribes were paid by citizens to public officials in 2023.

c) Most bribes are paid in the street or in a public official’s office.

d) Private sector bribery is increasing, but continues to be less prevalent than in the public sector.

e) Issues specific to the criminal justice system are a sore point – I will tackle that in the next section.

f) Nepotism and bribery in public sector recruitment and promotion – In recent years we have witnessed outrageous, open recruitment of children of Judges onto our Judiciary benches by their parents! Why has the Nigerian Bar Association allowed this to persist?

g) The manipulation of ethnic sentiments to further corrupt agendas – the last political exercise is replete with ample evidence of this. The Survey findings indicate that corruption in Nigeria has penetrated every layer of society:

h) In 2023, 5.1 bribes were paid on average by each bribe payer in Nigeria in the 12 months prior to the survey. i) Out of all Nigerian citizens who had at least one contact with a public official in the 12 months prior to the 2023 survey, 27 per cent paid a bribe to a public official. Happily, there was some good news to report: 

j) 70 per cent of Nigerians who were asked to pay a bribe in 2023, refused to do so on at least one occasion. The bribery refusal rate was found to be highest in the North-West (at 76 per cent), although all zones recorded refusal rates above 60 per cent. k) Public officials continue to be blatant about bribe requests, but less so than in the past.

l) Nigerians are increasingly reporting bribe payments to official authorities. I will conclude this section by quoting Achebe once more: “… Nigerians are corrupt because the system under which they live today makes corruption easy and profitable; they will cease to be corrupt when corruption is made difficult and inconvenient.” The greatest antidote of corruption is leadership integrity with consequences for offenders no matter who they are.

Rebuilding the Judiciary “True peace is not merely the absence of tension; it is the presence of justice.” – Martin Luther King According to Willian H. Neukom, CEO of the World Justice Project: “The rule of law is a durable system of laws, institutions, norms, and community commitment that delivers four universal principles: accountability, just law, open government, and accessible and impartial justice.” The Judiciary in Nigeria is a very pale version of its once internationally esteemed self. Politicians after rigging elections openly ask their rivals to “go to court” in Nigeria because they are aware that they have completely compromised the Judiciary system. A number of Judges are in the pockets of wealthy politicians and individuals and make judgements – not based on the law of the land but to the highest bidder. This, my learned audience, is one of the most effective strategies of State Capture – discussed next - that must be excised from Nigeria like a surgeon cutting out a malignant cancer. Transparency International suggests that “Corruption in the judicial system breaks the basic principle of equality before the law and deprives people of their right to a fair trial. In a corrupt judicial system, money and influence may decide which cases are prioritized or dismissed. Perpetrators may get away unpunished while victims are left with no answer and no justice.” ^xi

“Simple reforms can prevent this. An independent body and public oversight can guarantee that appointments in the judiciary are based on merit rather than favoritism. Judicial personnel should be adequately trained and receive fair salaries and pensions, to make them less vulnerable to bribery. Judges’ personal liability for decisions should be limited and, to protect them from pressure by powerful interests, only credible and transparent investigations should be conducted against them. Civil society, the private sector, and the media – we all have a vital role to play” ^xii

What is State Capture?

The World Bank and Transparency International define State capture as one of the most pervasive forms of corruption, “a situation where powerful individuals, institutions, companies, or groups within or outside a country use corruption to shape a nation’s policies, legal environment, and economy, to benefit their own private interests. ^xiii

State capture is not always overt and obvious. It can also arise from the more subtle close alignment of interests between specific business and political elites through family ties, friendships, and the intertwined ownership of economic assets.^xiv

What is happening in Nigeria -right before our eyes – is state capture:

The purchase of National assets by political elites – and their family members - at bargain prices, the allocation of national resources – minerals, land, and even human resources – to local, regional, and international actors. It must be prohibited and prevented through local and international laws. ^xv

“Public institutions such as the legislature, the executive, the judiciary, and regulatory agencies both at the federal and local levels are subject to capture. As such, state capture can broadly be understood as the disproportionate and unregulated influence of interest groups or decision-making processes, where special interest groups manage to bend state laws, policies, and regulations. They do so through practices such as illicit contributions paid by private interests to political parties, and for election campaigns, vote-buying, buying of presidential decrees or court decisions, as well as through illegitimate lobbying and revolving door appointments^{. xvi}

The main risk of state capture is that decisions no longer take into consideration the public interest, but instead favor a specific special interest group or individual. Laws, policies, and regulations are designed to benefit a specific interest group, often times to the detriment of smaller firms and groups and society in general. State capture can seriously affect economic development, regulatory quality, the provision of public services, quality of education and health services, infrastructure decisions, and even the environment and public health.” ^xvii

My military training and experience taught me that what you capture, you tend to hold under your sole control for as long as you can hold it. That is the case of one governor of a state who still holds the state captive in his pocket 25 years after being the governor of the state. Insecurity “A series of overlapping security, political and economic crises has left Nigeria facing its worst instability since the end of the Biafran war in 1970.” ^xviii

Writing in Security and Defense Quarterly, Tope Shola Akinyetun, Victor Chukwugekwu Ebonine, Iyase Ambrose profess: “Nigeria is presently bedeviled by an abundance of security challenges that gnaw at the very soul of the nation’s existence. The prevalence of insecurity in the country is multipronged and caught in a cyclic web. Insecurity in Nigeria comprises insurgency, killer herdsmen, extrajudicial killings, ethnoreligious conflict, armed robbery, militancy, banditry, cybercrime, and attacks by unknown gunmen, among other things”. How did Nigeria the giant of Africa get to this situation? The genesis of insecurity in Nigeria is a perfect storm of political incompetence and corruption, state capture, institutional collapse, porous borders, religious extremism, and severe multi dimensional poverty. There is a compelling need to address the protracted and recurring multidimensional insecurity in Nigeria. “These security threats not only undermine national stability and the rule of law, but also have adverse effects on the economy, affecting price, output, employment, trade balance, poverty, 31 inequality, defense expenditure, government budget patterns, socio-political environment, and several others.” ^xix

Nigeria’s own government’s Ministry of Budget and Economic planning has a thought or two about our current predicament: “Security challenges in any nation constitute a threat to the lives and properties of its citizens, hinder business activities, and discourage local and foreign investors which invariably slow down economic growth and development. ^xx

Nigeria in recent times has recorded unprecedented security challenges such as Boko Haram Terrorists (BHTs) attacks, militancy, armed robbery, banditry, kidnapping for ransom, Fulani-Herders farmers clashes, cultism among other social vices. ^xxi

These security challenges have propelled then to the top of the list of the most critical tests to Nigeria’s sovereign existence. Its presence looms unabated even as it has attracted huge allocation of national budget to the security sector (Achumba and Akpor).^xxii But it has become an industry in some quarters. Throw more money to what money cannot buy. Nigeria’s Porous Borders  “Nigeria has porous borders and herders from other parts of West Africa nations armed with AK 47 have found easy access into the country.” ^xxiii 

“A nation that opens her borders, allows other nationalities to come in at will and has so many ungoverned spaces would certainly face security challenges. As a consequence of our porous borders, the forests are not secured due to lack of Forest Guards, and 75 per cent of the illicit arms in West Africa sub region are domiciled in Nigeria.” ^xxiv

This is a 33 recipe for disaster – as we are currently witnessing. So, What is the Genesis of Insecurity in Nigeria? Professor Obasesam Okoi and MaryAnne Iwara and Suleiman Arzika provide some salient insights:

1. Mismanagement of public funds and Corruption. We have already tackled this topic earlier in this address. Suffice is to say that “the democratic space [for too long] has been dominated by political elites who consistently violate fundamental principles associated with a liberal democratic system, such as competitive elections, the rule of law, political freedom, and respect for human rights. The outcome of the recent 2023 elections further eroded public trust in the ability of the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) to organize competitive elections unfettered by the authoritarian influences of the ruling class. This challenge is an indicator of the systemic failure in Nigeria’s governance system. A continuation of the current system will only accelerate the erosion of public trust and democratic institutions. In contrast with the current system in which votes are attained through empty promises, bribery, voter intimidation, and violence, Nigeria needs a governance system that will enhance the education of its voters and the capability of its leaders.” ^xxv

2. Poor planning: Lack of sustainable national development plans and Poor implementation of projects and programs.

3. Poor Security Architecture: The security challenges we have in Nigeria today are also a result of the inability of the government to reform the security architecture of the country 35 to suit the current demands. The Police, Military and intelligence agencies are still structured and operated along colonial constructs and systems.

4. Lack of adequate personnel: The combined number of the military, police and civil defense forces is less than 1m and over half of them are mostly engaged in administrative, VIP and other mundane work. For a country of over 200 million population, the ratio is quite low. The land area is vast and the population is mostly poor, illiterate, and prone to exploitation.

5. Lack of Equipment: The police and military have poor equipment for the most basic security work. They lack basic communication devices, hardware like guns, bullets, protective kits, etc. They lack transportation and logistics. They lack database and IT systems for tracking and record keeping. 

6. Corruption, Poor training, and Remuneration: Our police are some of the worst paid and trained on the African continent – leaving them prone to, and occasional active participants in corrupt practices. A police officer who cannot feed himself or his/her family cannot be expected to establish order and security hampered by the lack of equipment, coordination, and poor training. Corruption: Massive corruption at the top of the security forces has permeated the entire system from the top officials to the patrol officers on the streets. This is caused by poor conditions of service and employee treatment: where salaries are poor and not paid on time, devoid of benefits - inadequate or lack of life insurance, poor housing, planning, etc. Deployment of security forces has become more synonymous with extortion in the areas 37 they are deployed than improvement in security.

7. Neglect of industrial, agricultural, and other sectors of the economy and over dependence on oil sector.

8. Lack of electricity generative capacity which has forced several local and international companies to close or flee our shores.

9. Food Insecurity Food insecurity requires special attention as this is one of the most serious developments in Nigeria in recent years. At this juncture in the address, it is important to cast our minds back in history. There are several corollaries between what is happening in Nigeria today and the events leading up to the French Revolution: Food insecurity was a major factor in the French Revolution (1789–1799): Crop failures: A series of poor harvests in the 1770s and late 1780s led to food shortages and famine. The lower class, who produced most of the country's food, relied on grain as a primary food source. • • • • High food prices: The lower grain yields caused prices to skyrocket. Substandard food quality: The bread that was available was often poor quality, blackish, earthy, and sour. Food distribution: There was a discrepancy in food distribution within and around Paris. Marie Antoinette's comment: The queen's comment, “Qu'ils mangent de la brioche” (“Let them eat cake”), when told that her subjects had no bread, made her a hated symbol of the monarchy. 39 Other factors that contributed to the French Revolution include: The Estate System, Absolutism, Enlightenment ideas, and The American Revolution. In the seminal book Food Security and Political Stability: A Humanitarian Perspective, Daniel Maxwell postulates that “In terms of causation, when it comes to Food insecurity in particular, these links run in both directions—food insecurity can be a cause of political instability, but political instability and conflict have also been causes of food insecurity or famine.” According to UNICEF: “ Nearly 25 million Nigerians are at risk of facing starvation and severe hunger if urgent action is not taken. This is a projected increase from the estimated 17 million people currently at risk of food insecurity. Continued conflict, climate change, inflation and rising food prices are key drivers of this alarming trend. Food access has been affected by persistent violence in the north-east states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY) and armed banditry and kidnapping in states such as Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, and Niger. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, widespread flooding in the 2024 rainy season damaged more than 676,000 hectares of farmlands, which diminished harvests and increased the risk of food insecurity for families across the country. The flooding is one of the effects of climate change and variability impacting Nigeria. More extreme weather patterns affecting food security are anticipated in the future.^xxvi

Aggravating this desperate situation are the unscrupulous members of Nigeria’s Political elites who, rather than fix the aforementioned problems highlighted here, have exploited the hunger, poverty, and illiteracy of the masses to mobilize voters with food items such as rice, beans, garri, yams, salt and seasonings, and money. The food items are usually packaged strategically with the image of political candidates and the parties they represent. The political calculation here is that destitute people are more likely to vote for a politician who brings along gifts - ironically, bought by looted treasury funds belonging to the very same people that are condescended upon - than one who only provides concrete solutions to their everyday problems that might take time. The practice of using food to mobilize voters is commonly described in Nigeria as “Stomach infrastructure” politics. Nigerians must put an end to this practice.

Is Nigeria a failed State?

42 Let us return to Professor Robert I. Rotberg, the founding director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Program on Intrastate Conflict and president emeritus of the World Peace Foundation, and John Campbell, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria. According to these intellectuals and Africanists: “There are four kinds of nations: the strong, the weak, the failed, and the collapsed. Of the 193 members of the United Nations, 60 or 70 are strong. There are three places that should be considered collapsed: Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen. Eighty or 90 U.N. members are weak. Weakness consists of providing many, but not all, of essential public goods, the most important of which are security and safety. If citizens are not secure from harm within national borders, governments cannot deliver good governance (the essential services that citizens expect) to their constituents. A dozen or so states are failed, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, and Myanmar. Each lacks security, is unsafe, has weak rules of law, is corrupt, limits political participation and voice, discriminates within its borders against various classes and kinds of citizens, and provides educational and medical services sparingly. Most of all, failed states are violent. All failed states harbor some form of violent internal strife, such as civil war or insurgency. Nigeria now confronts six or more internal insurrections and the inability of the Nigerian state to provide peace and stability to its people has tipped a hitherto very weak state into failure.”^xxvii

What is to be done to pull Nigeria back from the precipice?

Following in the footsteps of Japan, Singapore along with South Korea in Asia have made the remarkable transition from poor, underdeveloped countries into the coveted ranks of the advanced nations of the first world - in our lifetime. How was this possible? The Heritage board reminds us that “the 1960s and 1970s was a period when Singapore was beset with many uncertainties as it sought an identity of its own. The country was facing massive unemployment and a declining entrepot trade at the time of independence, while grappling with a rapidly growing population.”xxviii Into this murky milieu stepped Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew. Often referred to by his initials LKY, Yew was a Singaporean statesman and lawyer who served as the first prime minister of Singapore from 1959 to 1990. It was during his 45 tenure that the phenomenal transformation of Singapore took place. Now, I must state categorically that I am not calling for 30 year tenures for our politicians (before someone accuses me of doing so), but merely a focus on the quality of political leadership. Engineer Zeeshan Jawaid, a marketing expert from Pakistan – a country with its own panoply of challenges - suggests that The Yew doctrine (remembered by the acronym MPH) has 3 simples components: Meritocracy: “The first element of the MPH formula is meritocracy. This means that individuals are promoted based on their abilities and achievements, rather than their social background or connections. In Singapore, this is reflected in the country's education system, which is based on meritocracy and places a strong emphasis on academic performance.

Students are encouraged to excel and are given opportunities to highlight their abilities through various competitions and programs. This focus on meritocracy has helped Singapore to develop a highly skilled and talented workforce, which has been critical in the country's economic success.”^xxix

Pragmatism: “The second element of the MPH formula is pragmatism. This means that policies and decisions are made based on practical considerations, rather than religious, class, ethnic, tribal, creed, ideology, or political beliefs. In Singapore, this is reflected in the government's approach to economic development. The government has been pragmatic in its policies, focusing on attracting foreign investment, building a skilled workforce, and developing key industries such as finance, logistics, and manufacturing. This pragmatic 47 approach has enabled Singapore to develop a strong and diversified economy that is able to weather economic challenges.” ^xxx

Honesty: “The third and final element of the MPH formula is honesty, which means zero tolerance for corruption. In Singapore, the government has taken a strong stance against corruption, with strict laws and severe punishments for corrupt practices. This has helped to create a culture of honesty and integrity in the country, which has been critical in building trust and confidence among investors and businesses. The MPH formula has been a key driver of Singapore's success, but it is not the only factor. The country's leadership has also played a crucial role in its development journey. Under the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew and his successors, the government has been proactive in identifying 48 challenges and opportunities and has implemented policies that have helped to propel Singapore forward. The government has also been responsive to the changing needs of its people and has invested heavily in areas such as healthcare, education, and social welfare.” ^xxxi

Nigeria Situation

As we can see and understand, Nigeria’s situation is bad. The more the immorality and corruption of a nation, the more the nation sinks into chaos, insecurity, conflict, discord, division, disunity, depression, youth restiveness, confusion, violence, and underdevelopment. That’s the situation mostly in Nigeria in the reign of Baba-go-slow and Emilokan. The failing state status of Nigeria is confirmed and glaringly indicated and manifested for every honest person to see through the consequences of the level of our pervasive corruption, mediocrity, immorality, misconduct, mismanagement, perversion, injustice, incompetence and all other forms of iniquity. But yes, there is hope

Conclusion

I conclude this address by once again quoting our Professor Chinua Achebe, this time from his New York Times Opinion piece on Nigeria, January 15, 2011. For the young people gathered here today, please note that this late, African bard, Icon, and crusader for social justice, kept engaging with the “troubles with Nigeria, nay Africa” till the very end of his life. He never gave in until he gave up. He fought to the end. We expect you to embrace him as your role model, and emerge as the next generation to tackle Africa’s myriad problems in the same manner and with the same zeal, dedication and commitment: 50 “In the end [Achebe states], I foresee that the Nigerian solution will come in stages. First we have to nurture and strengthen our democratic institutions - and strive for the freest and fairest elections possible. That will place the true candidates of the people in office. Within the fabric of a democracy, a free press can thrive and a strong justice system can flourish. The checks and balances we have spoken about and the laws needed to curb corruption will then naturally find a footing. And there has to be the development of a new patriotic consciousness, not one simply based on the well-worn notions of the "Unity of Nigeria" or "Faith in Nigeria" often touted by our corrupt leaders; but one based on an awareness of the responsibility of leaders to the led, and disseminated by civil society, schools, and intellectuals. It is from this kind of environment that a leader, humbled by the trust placed upon him by the people, will emerge, 51 willing to use the power given to him or her for the good of the people.”

There lies my hope and there is my optimism for Nigeria and for Africa.

Thank you!

“Leadership Failure and State Capture in Nigeria” Keynote Address By President Olusegun Obasanjo, GCFR At the Chinua Achebe Leadership Forum, Yale University New Haven, Connecticut, USA, November 15, 2024 _________________________________________________________________

ihttps://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/04/12/the-failure-of-governance-in-nigeria-an-epistocratic-challenge/ ii Electoral Knowledge network iii US Department of State: https://www.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/protecting-the-2024 election-from-foreign-malign-influence iv Ibid vToba Paul Ayeni, Opani Aweh, Examining the Impact of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) As A Gamechanger In Nigeria 2023 Elections, December 2023, The Information Technologist, 20(2):25-42, December, 2023. vi https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/04/12/the-failure-of-governance-in-nigeria-an-epistocratic-challenge/ vii Ibid viii Ibid ix https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/nigeria-ranks-150-out-of-180-on-corruption-index transparency-international-ucpdtsct xhttps://www.unodc.org/conig/uploads/documents/3rd_national_corruption_survey_report_2024_07_09.pdf xi https://www.transparency.org/en/our-priorities/judiciary-and-law-enforcement xii Ibid xiii “Hellman, Joel S.; Jones, Geraint; Kaufmann, Daniel. 2000. "Seize the State, Seize the Day" : State Capture, Corruption, and Influence in Transition. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2444. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19784 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” Brierley, Sarah. 2021. “Combining Patronage and Merit in Public Sector Recruitment.” The Journal of Politics 83 (1): 182–97. https:// doi.org/10.1086/708240. Dávid-Barrett, Elizabeth. 2023. “State Capture and Development: A Conceptual Framework.” Journal of International Relations and Development, March. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-023-00290-6. Fazekas, Mihaly, Viktoriia Poltoratskaia, and Bence Tóth. 2023. Corruption Risks and State Capture in Bulgarian Public Procurement. Policy Research Working Papers. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10444. Fazekas, Mihaly, and Istvan Janos Toth. 2014. “From Corruption to State Capture: A New Analytical Framework with Empirical Applications from Hungary.” SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2531701. Greiff, Pablo de. 2023. “A Framework Approach to Making Prevention a Reality.” Hellman, Joel S., Geraint Jones, and Daniel Kaufmann. 2000. “Seize the State, Seize the Day: State Capture, Corruption, and Influence in Transition,” September. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-2444. (and Journal Of Comparative Economics, 31(4), 751-773. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2003.09.006) Hellman, J. S., & Kaufmann, D. (2004). The inequality of influence. In ‚Kornai and Rose-Ackerman, eds. Building a trustworthy state in post-socialist transition (pp. 100-118). Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781403981103_6 Kaufmann, Daniel, Francesca Recanatini, and Sergiy Biletsky. 2002. “Diagnostic Tools and Applied Methods for Capacity Building and Action Learning.” The World Bank. https://dokumen.tips/download/link/diagnostic tools-and-applied-methods-for-capacity-buildin-gand-action-2003-12.html. Pavlović, Dušan. 2021. “State Capture in the Post-Communist Southeast Europe. A New Variant?” Academia Letters, August. https:// doi.org/10.20935/AL3032. Recanatini, Francesca, Grace Morgan, and Mohamed Lagdhaf Cheikh Malainine. 2010. “Governance and Anti-Corruption Diagnostics: Guidance and Tools for Implementation, Monitoring, and Assessment in the Field.” The World Bank International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Stoyanov, Alexander, and Alexander Gerganov. 2019. “State Capture: From Theory to Piloting a Measurement Methodology.” Stoyanov, Alexander, Alexander Gerganov, and Todor Yalamov. 2019. “State Capture Assessment Diagnostics.” Center for the Study of Democracy. xiv Ibid xv Ibid xvi Ibid xvii Ibid xviii Peter Beaumont: Failed state? Why Nigeria’s fragile democracy is facing an uncertain future. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/oct/25/failed-state-why-nigerias-fragile democracy-is-facing-an-uncertain-future xix Budgit: https://budgit.org/nigerias-rising-insecurity-implications-for-the-nigerian-economy/ Nigeria’s Rising Insecurity: Implications for the Nigerian Economy, April 15, 2024.

xx NIGERIA SECURITY CHALLENGES IMPLICATION ON ... Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning https://nationalplanning.gov.ng › 2021/08 › AU... PPT xxi Ibid xxii Ibid xxiii Ibid xxiv Ibid xxv https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/04/12/the-failure-of-governance-in-nigeria-an-epistocratic-challenge/ xxvi https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/25-million-nigerians-high-risk-food-insecurity-2023 xxvii https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/27/nigeria-is-a-failed-state/ xxviii chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nhb.gov.sg/nationalmuseum/ /media/nms2017/documents/school-programmes/teachers-hi-resource-unit-4-post-independence.pdf xxix Engr. Zeeshan Jawaid: How Singapore's Unique Formula of MPH Led to Its Success as a First-World Nation? Chief Marketing Consultant: https://wearemadvertising.com/ xxx Ibid xxxi Ibid

The Defence Headquarters, the nation’s military high command, addressed a press conference last week and announced that a new terrorist group has invaded the country from Niger Republic and Mali. Known as ‘Lukarawa’, the group has settled in Sokoto and Kebbi states, creating serious security challenges for the people and the security agencies. The military said the terrorists came after the military coup which toppled the civilian administration in Niger Republic in July 2023 and that they were able to enter Nigeria due to lack of effective border controls after the July coup.

Just last week, Lukarawa killed 15 people in Kebbi and there are reports of attacks on other villages, including imposing financial levies on the communities and stealing food crops and livestock. This has negative impacts on food production. Lukarawa is said to have links with ISWAP (Islamic State – West Africa or Willayat Garb Ifriqiya), the ruthless terrorist group that operates freely in the Sahel region and is responsible for mass killings and devastations in that region. Reports that the group is offering financial incentives to lure young Nigerians in Sokoto state into its fold are particularly jarring.

According to Edward Buba, director, DHQ media operations, who spoke to the journalists, prior to the military takeover in Niger, there were joint border operations between the Nigerian army and Nigerien security forces which had kept the terrorists at bay, but with the breakdown of the joint border operations in the aftermath of the coup, the borders have become more porous, less protected and less impregnable to the terrorists.

‘’The terrorists took advantage of the gaps in cooperation between both countries and exploited difficult terrains to make incursions into remote areas in some Northwestern states to spread their ideology,’’ Buba said. This must be a very serious problem for our military which has already been overburdened by over 15 years of fighting Boko Haram and other criminal groups across the country.

But what caused the ‘’gaps in the cooperation between both countries’’ and how does that relate with the need for our president to speak after a long and careful deliberation? In July 2023, a group of military officers overthrew Niger’s democratically elected government, creating shocks, apprehensions and panics across the ECOWAS sub-region. President Bola Tinubu had just taken over as the chairman of ECOWAS, and within days, the regional body hurriedly announced a raft of sanctions on Niger, the strictest the bloc has ever imposed on an errant member.

They included closure of all borders with Niger; suspension of financial transactions and freezing of the country’s assets. As if these were not enough, ECOWAS went further to issue an ultimatum to the junta to restore constitutional order and reinstate the ousted president, Mohammed Bazoum, within one week or face other measures, including military intervention. President Tinubu made the announcements in his capacity as the new ECOWAS chairman, although he was in office as president for only six weeks. His election as president coincided with Nigeria’s turn to head the body.

Soon after the sanctions were announced, the military leaders of Niger aligned with the three countries that had earlier fallen under military putsch (Mali; Burkina Faso and Guinea) and called off ECOWAS’ bluff by breaking away from the bloc and cutting off all military and diplomatic relations with Nigeria. The juntas vowed to collectively fight whatever military intervention Nigeria and ECOWAS were contemplating.

It was an unexpected turn of events for Nigerians who had just been plunged into a serious economic crisis by the new administration. From all walks of life and every corner of the federation, people were quick to advise Tinubu not to go to war with Niger and its allies. Humiliated, Abuja then launched a flurry of diplomatic activities to try to convince the régime in Niamey to release the ousted civilian president who was said to be under house arrest. Nigeria has never been this disgraced.

Eventually, good sense prevailed; ECOWAS ate its words and Tinubu learned his lessons in Diplomacy 101. There was no military intervention and the juntas are still in power till today. It is the biggest diplomatic embarrassment that we ever suffered since the killing of Ken Saro-Wiwa in 1995. Obviously, Tinubu was not well briefed on the potential implications and outcomes of the sanctions he announced. He did not even have a cabinet in place and did not even receive some counsel from foreign relations experts in the country before he plunged into the ECOWAS debacle.

Even during the presidential campaigns that lasted from early January 2022 till the election in February 2023, foreign policy was not a strong suit of any of the presidential candidates. As a leading candidate, Tinubu had no foreign policy adviser and because he did not even give press interviews or appear in presidential debates, very little or nothing was known of his strength in foreign affairs. And so, when he emerged as ECOWAS chairman, it was clear that he was not prepared for the diplomatic challenges ahead.

The break-up of military cooperation between Nigeria and Niger Republic due to the hasty announcement of sanctions by President Tinubu last year has now led to the incursions of new terrorist groups into the country. This is why it is important for leaders to be deliberate, careful and calculated before they make pronouncements. A president’s words are powerful and they matter.

As Benjamin Disraeli, former UK Prime Minister (1804 – 1881), said ‘’with words, we govern men’’, a leader should talk with dignity, charisma, self-respect and respect for his audience. Rushing to impose sanctions on a new military régime in Niger and threatening military reprisal against the junta was an act of recklessness for which we are now paying with open borders and terrorist invasions. A month after Muhammadu Buhari took office in May 2015, he went on a visit to Niger, Chad and Mali, discussed bilateral cooperation and cemented military collaboration and border security with them. That helped a lot.

We have to do everything to prevent Lukarawa from becoming another Boko Haram – in size and the magnitude of destruction they inflict on Nigerians -, and as a first step, Tinubu should re-engage the Nigerien authorities and restore military cooperation and border control with them. I’m surprised that President Tinubu was quick to travel out to Saudi Arabia this weekend to work with Arab leaders to resolve the Israeli-Gaza conflict, instead of working with other ECOWAS leaders to reach out to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to resolve this security situation in our country. Talk of wrong priorities!