
OTHERS' VIEWS
[OPINION] Fisayo Soyombo and the trouble with taking Nigeria too seriously - Abimbola Adelakun
AdminAfter many years of guarding oil pipeline installations, the Nigerian Army finally made its first high-profile arrest. It turned out to be a journalist! Investigative journalist and founder of the Foundation for Investigative Journalism, Fisayo Soyombo became the face of the Army’s eventual success in apprehending oil thieves. Of course, they regularly announce arrests of some faceless and nameless people. Hardly anyone bothers to follow up on their prosecution. We have all been Nigerian long enough to know that some crimes persist in the country, not simply because the criminals are resilient but because the ring of perpetration is so institutionalised that it should be considered an extension of the civil service. That is essentially the story of oil bunkering in Nigeria.
We were all here in 2019 when Rivers governor Nyesom Wike accused the Nigerian Army of running illegal bunkering in Rivers State. He did not insinuate; Wike specifically accused the general officer commanding the Army’s 6 Division in Port Harcourt, Jamil Sarham, of using soldiers to steal and sell petroleum products in the region. In a country that takes itself seriously, that sort of accusation would neither be flippantly made nor lightly received. However, this is Nigeria. The only thing guaranteed to happen is nothing.
Wike did not say anything anyone did not already know. By the time you reach the end of organised crime in Nigeria, you will discover it is an appendage of the administrative state. Oil theft is run by legitimate state actors. When the government says it is looking for oil thieves, what they are searching for are the unemployed youths who carve out their own spaces outside of the massive extra-legal operations that the government has created for itself.
When finally released from detention, Soyombo granted an interview on AriseTV where he noted that the sensitive information he shared with the officers somehow ended up with the oil thieves. By leaking details of the information he gave them, they ensured they jeopardised the rest of his investigations. Still, congratulations! Even with that outcome, one can argue that the investigation succeeded in a way that would not have been so well-illustrated if you had published it in the most poetic language a poet could have mustered. If anyone was ever in doubt that the state and the so-called oil thieves are in cahoots, here is irrefutable proof.
But if there is something Soyombo’s series of explosive investigations has repeatedly proven, it is also that Nigeria does not take itself too seriously. Those serious enough about Nigeria and even demonstrating it by putting their lives on the line end up appearing to be doing too much. For instance, during his AriseTV interview, Soyombo mentioned his earlier investigation that revealed a child trafficking ring in the country and how the same state officials who should act have stonewalled him. I remember reading the publication open-mouthed, genuinely shocked that the process of giving a child out to adopters in the country was that lax. In a society where the earth has eyes, the jaw-dropping revelations should have led to reforms in the child adoption industry. Nigeria slacks in many areas, but you would be forgiven if you took it for granted that we would at least protect the most vulnerable among us. For nothing to happen, you realise that Nigeria cares for none of its children.
Then, in 2019, he investigated the corruption of the Nigerian Prison Service. He also put himself on the line for that fact-finding mission. One would think that the Nigerian government would at least meet him halfway, but for where? What eventually woke them up to the sordid reality of the NPS was Bobrisky. Yes, Bobrisky did that for us. Before you knew it, the interior minister, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, had announced an investigation. The National Assembly set up a fact-finding panel and even invited a social media rabble-rouser to testify before them. Then you wonder why the sudden seriousness. The knowledge they needed to act was available in the public sphere all along, but they were only aroused to their duties when the matter had to do with sex.
Come to think of it, maybe that is how the outcome of investigative journalism should be published in Nigeria. Perhaps that was what was missing all along! Attach sex to reports of investigation in any form, and the relevant agencies will be tempted to pay attention. Who knows, sex might finally motivate state officials to take decisive action over the rotten state of another bureaucracy where Soyombo has conducted a series of investigations: the Nigerian Customs Service. He has investigated the agency and published a series of reports, but the silence from the same administration that was awakened during the Bobrisky saga can wake even the dead.
The good book says we will know the truth, and the truth will free us, but Nigeria defies that hope. We know the truth, and even the truth knows us back, but we are not yet free. We have been compromised on every front by leaders who cannot bring themselves to even feign any interest in social progress. Under their watch, virtually every decadent institution is allowed to progressively decay. The lesser their structural integrity, the more pliable—and better readied—they are for the machinations of these tyrannical leaders. Their disinterest in arresting the rot means it keeps spreading, eating into every organ, every nerve, every cell, every bit of the society.
What is eating up our society from the inside is gnawing at the brains now, God help us! In several directions you look, nothing seems to be taken seriously. Here is a recent and unfunny example: The Nigerian Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative employed the services of some comedians and singers (one, the musician Innocent Idibia, popularly called TuFace; two, Waris Olayinka Akinwande, the social media jokester popularly called Ola of Lagos; three, musician Dauda Kahutu Rarara, and comedian Bright Okpocha, whom everyone knows as Basket Mouth) on a fact-finding trip to India to learn about Compressed Natural Gas and convince Nigerians at home that it was safe for use. One wonders, if the FG is serious about swaying people towards CNG, why hire comedians and singers? Whatever happened to actual experts?
Imagine that you are an engineer with years of training in this area. You have been honing your skills (maybe even up to PhD level), waiting for the day you will be called to serve society with the knowledge. Then you wake up one day and learn that those called to the serious assignment are the amusers. Imagine the betrayal you will feel when you realise that you wasted time taking Nigeria too seriously. Please note that this is not an argument against entertainers as people who can also positively influence their society. There are countless examples of comedians playing the role of a society’s intellectuals, but expertise is expertise. If we have sincere questions about what CNG would mean for the life expectancy of vehicles that would need to be retrofitted, are comedians the right people to ask?
When it eventually dawns on you that Nigeria is not a serious country, it hits so hard that being struck by thunder would have been gentler. You realise that you have been investing your passion in a country that is not passionate enough about itself; you embarked on a redemption quest for a country that is just not ready. When the rage that seizes you finally subsides, you experience a calm within. That is the moment you come to full Nigerian maturity. And you know that because when they start another round of noise over one thing, one thing in the Nigerian streets, you just enter your own house and close the door.
In the world of politics, bold choices often lead to both support and criticism. That is an intricate part of politics.
Kemi Badenock, the leader of the opposition Conservative party in the UK, stands as a remarkable figure, being the first black woman of African descent to reach such heights in British political history. However, her strong and persistent stance on immigration has sparked controversy, especially among her fellow Africans. While some see her views as a betrayal of her roots, it is crucial to understand that her actions stem from a commitment to her role as a British politician. Who, as the leader of the opposition is paid by the government of her country, with tax payers money.
Badenock’s immigration policies reflect her duty to prioritize the needs of the British people. As a member of the government, she is responsible for ensuring that resources are allocated effectively and that the integrity of the nation is maintained. For example, she has argued for stricter immigration controls to address public concerns about jobs and resources. This approach may seem harsh, especially to those who share her African heritage, but it is essential for a politician to balance the interests of all citizens in the country that she now identifies as home. In a role like hers, the focus must be on national concerns, even when it means making difficult decisions.
Some African critics often accuse Badenock of distancing herself from her African origins. However, it is important to recognize that being a politician requires a level of pragmatism. She must navigate a complex political landscape where the expectations of her party and her constituents often clash. For instance, Rishi Sunak, another prominent British politician and the immediate past prime minister of Indian descent, also faced similar challenges. Both leaders must demonstrate loyalty to their country while managing their cultural identities. This juggling act does not mean they forget their backgrounds; it simply illustrates the complexities of political life. Would Kemi Badenock have attained such political heights if she had ventured into politics in Nigeria? One would leave that to your conjecture.
Moreover, Badenock’s stance on immigration resonates with many British citizens, going by their massive votes for Brexit, who feel that immigration has impacted their lives. By taking a firm position on immigration, she connects with voters who seek reassurance and stability. This connection is vital for any politician who wishes win elections on the back of the massive loss of the Conservative Party at the recent elections and to be effective. It may be uncomfortable for some, particularly those from immigrant backgrounds, whose votes might not be materially significant to sway the electorate. But the goal of any political leader is to serve the needs of the majority while addressing some of the concerns of the minority.
In the world of politics, bold choices often lead to both support and criticism. Kemi Badenock, the leader of the opposition Conservative party in the UK, stands as a remarkable figure, being the first black woman of African descent to reach such heights in British political history. However, her strong stance on immigration has sparked controversy, especially among her fellow Africans. While some see her views as a betrayal of her roots, it is crucial to understand that her actions stem from a commitment to her role as a British politician.
Badenock’s immigration policies reflect her duty to prioritize the needs of the British people. As a member of the government, she is responsible for ensuring that resources are allocated effectively and that the integrity of the nation is maintained. For example, she has argued for stricter immigration controls to address public concerns about jobs and resources. This approach may seem harsh, especially to those who share her African heritage, but it is essential for a politician to balance the interests of all citizens. In a role like hers, the focus must be on national concerns, even when it means making difficult decisions.
Critics often accuse Badenock of distancing herself from her African origins. However, it is important to recognize that being a politician requires a level of pragmatism. She must navigate a complex political landscape where the expectations of her party and her constituents often clash. For instance, Rishi Sunak, another prominent British politician of Indian descent, also faces similar challenges. Both leaders must demonstrate loyalty to their country while managing their cultural identities. This juggling act does not mean they forget their backgrounds; it simply illustrates the complexities of political life.
Moreover, Badenock’s stance resonates with many British citizens who feel that immigration has impacted their lives. By taking a firm position on immigration, she connects with voters who seek reassurance and stability. This connection is vital for any politician who wishes to be effective. It may be uncomfortable for some, particularly those from immigrant backgrounds, but the goal of any political leader is to serve the needs of the majority while addressing the concerns of minorities.
Kemi Badenock’s immigration policies may attract criticism, particularly from those who share her African heritage. Nonetheless, her role as a British politician requires her to prioritize the needs of the nation. Balancing her heritage with her responsibilities is no easy task, but it reflects the reality of political life. Ultimately, the end justifies the means when it comes to serving the interests of the country. Embracing this perspective allows for a more nuanced understanding of her actions and the challenges faced by leaders in a diverse society.
One of the most pressing aspects of Badenock’s dilemma is the expectation to represent her community. As a trailblazer in contemporary British politics, she carries the weight of being a symbol for many who see her as a beacon of hope and change. However, her strict stance on immigration reform has led to accusations of betraying her roots. This creates a conflict between her personal history as a daughter of immigrants and her current role, where she must align with party policies that may not resonate with those who share her background. This situation mirrors the experiences of other politicians who have walked a similar path, such as Barack Obama, the first black president of the United States. Obama faced scrutiny from some African American communities for his policies that were perceived as not fully addressing issues impacting black Americans. Both leaders illustrate the complex balance of individual identity and the broader expectations of political leadership.
One can draw a similar line of reasoning with historical figures in the USA politics like Condoleezza Rice, who served as the U.S. Secretary of State, who faced similar dilemmas. Rice, a prominent African American woman in a significant government position, often had to navigate her identity while advocating for policies that sometimes conflicted with the interests of African Americans. Her experience highlights the challenges of being a representative of a community while also fulfilling the responsibilities of a high-ranking official. Like Badenock, Rice had to reconcile personal and political identities, often leading to criticism from those who felt she was not doing enough for her community.
Badenock’s situation also speaks to the broader narrative of representation in politics. As a leader, she is expected to advocate for diversity, equity, and inclusivity, while also addressing the concerns of the majority population. This balancing act is a common theme in political history. Figures such as Kamala Harris, the first female vice president of the United States, have similarly navigated the complexities of identity politics, often finding themselves at the intersection of advocating for their communities while adhering to the expectations of their political roles. Can Kamala’s loss to Donald Trump at the November presidential elections be attributed to what some observers think was her overt leaning too much to her ethnic background or America’s sexism and racism? These may ever remain in the realms of political speculations.
In a nutshell, Kemi Badenock’s position as a pioneering black British politician places her in a challenging dilemma where personal identity and political responsibilities intersect. History shows that many leaders, including Barack Obama and Condoleezza Rice, have faced similar challenges. The expectation to represent one’s community while fulfilling the duties of a political office can lead to complex dynamics and criticisms. Understanding these historical parallels can provide valuable insight into Badenock’s journey and the intricate balance that leaders must maintain in a diverse society. Nigerians, especially those in the UK, must try to understand that all politics is local. As far as practical and expedient, Kemi Badenock needs the vote of the British people for her Conservative Party- pure and simple.
Sonny Iroche
• Senior Academic Fellow. African Studies Centre. University of Oxford 2022-23
• Post Graduate AI. Saïd Business School. University of Oxford
LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/sonnyiroche
[OPINION] Why Taiwo Oyedele’s VAT simulation could end derivation misconceptions - Hafiz Bakare
AdminChannelsTV, on Monday 2nd December 2024, held a Town Hall session on the Tax Reform Bills during which Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy & Tax Reforms presented a simulation of the proposed VAT sharing formula to the public for the first time (at least to the best of my knowledge).
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc was used as a hypothetical case study for the simulation to highlight the difference between the current sharing formula based on the Remittance Model of Derivation which has the headquarters effect and the proposed sharing formula based on the Consumption Model of Derivation in the Tax Reform Bills.
It is a fact that companies currently remit VAT based on the location of their headquarters even though internally many of them have information about consumption activities in each state.
However, since the current VAT remittance model has never required location specific information, a number of companies may just need to start paying attention to their internal database for that purpose in preparation for the proposed VAT regime if it takes effect.

Perhaps that is why the information to showcase a comparison of the current and proposed models using a specific month on a complete basis may not be readily available and/or CREDIBLE at this point.
If that is the case as is likely so, then at least it is better to simulate using hypothetical data than not having any data to explain the impact of the proposed model.
The key point of misconception by Governors and a number of other stakeholders is the proposal to increase the percentage shared based on derivation from 20% to 60%!
The erroneous understanding is that the proposed 60% would still be based on the current Remittance Model of Derivation with the headquarters effect. Meanwhile, the proposal is 60% based on the Consumption Model of Derivation!
Before the referenced Town Hall session, the simulation was not in the public domain and even after the session, it hasn’t really circulated.
Most stakeholders (Governors, Lawmakers and other members of the public) would have better clarity with the visual illustration using data (albeit hypothetical), thereby making discussions more constructive.
There might not have been this level of opposition and distrust driven by misinformation if such an illustration comparing current and proposed scenarios had been readily available.
Something simple but crucial like the simulation might hopefully douse tension on the VAT issue with more clarity and better understanding by stakeholders. This would allow appreciation of other aspects of the Tax Reform Bills which have been obfuscated by the intense VAT debate.
The simulation should be circulated as widely as possible and used as the basis of engagement at different forums going forward.
I was watching the evening news on Monday night when two presenters used a word at different times that jolted me. I’ve heard and seen that word used often, especially by millennials and Gen Z, but I didn’t entirely pay heed because they were mostly in informal settings.
Anyways – I meant to write, anyway – I was jolted to hear that word, anyways, twice from two TV presenters on different programmes on the same station just minutes apart! My Use of English teachers would have beaten the straying “s” out of me if I had used that word even in error.
But that was at another time, before young adults invented more new words and other tokens of social expression, including memes and abbreviations, than at any other time in recent lexical history, thanks to technology and the prevalence of social media.
Words avant-garde
I’m trying to adjust, but I’m not quite there yet. And in this transition to a brave new world of avant-garde lexicography dominated by young adults, it’s improbable that I would have considered, anyways, a jarringly colloquial word, as proper form.
However, Oxford United Press (OUP), the bastion of rectitude, is leading the world in de-sensitising squeamishness in the use of the English language. In other words, sooner than later, I might well find myself loving and even using, anyways, in proper communication.
In a language and literary study in 2023 for the Word of the Year, OUP crowned “rizz” as the winner. The Press said it created a shortlist of eight words “all chosen to reflect the mood, ethos, and preoccupations” of the previous year and “rizz” emerged as the favourite after over 30,000 language lovers worldwide pared down the word soup to four finalists: rizz, Swiftie, prompt, and situationship.
Rizz up, darling!
In case you’re interested in a brief history of the etymology of how rizz might soon become mainstream, OUP explained that just as the fridge was from refrigerator and flu was from influenza, rizz (a noun), which can also be used as a verb, as in “to rizz up,” meaning to attract, seduce, or chat up), has its roots the word “charisma.”
I’m unsure which word might win OUP’s crown in 2024, but I have an in-vogue word slate that would be difficult to ignore. Perhaps lovers of language, especially millennials and Gen Z, the generational curators of these species of unusual words, might help crown a winner from my list for 2024 and share that list on any of my social media handles @azu ishiekwene or email azuishiekwene@gmail.com. Or text Word of the Year to +234 805 210 0356.
The first candidate for me is “steeze.” I was confused the first time I heard it and couldn’t immediately determine its meaning. An English language coach and content creator on Quora, Jasveer Kaur, described “steeze” as “A slang term which is a mix of ‘style’ and ‘ease’, that means ‘looking effortlessly cool, i.e., charisma or grace.” It’s a cousin of rizz, or “composure”, another synonym for steeze from the Gen Z corpus.
The lit vs the ill-lit
And how about “lit?” When I first heard that someone was “lit”, I thought they were alight, literally burning! It turned out that I was hugely mistaken. “Lit”, I later found out, means something different. It’s a slang derived from African American Vernacular English, which gained popularity in the 2000s. It’s been around for quite a while, but somehow, the “ill-lit” like me never quite thought it would soon be making its way to the mainstream.
But thanks to hip-hop and pop culture, it has become a favourite expression among millennials and Gen Z. If you say, “The concert last night was lit,” for example, or “Her performance in the game was lit,” there’s nothing more to add. It’s the highest expression of excitement and enthusiasm. In the same way, my father’s highest compliment was “noble”, as in “You’ve done noble!”
Rizz, lit, and dope, I’m told, are in the same class, with ritz (derived from the ostentation of Ritz, the famous hotel and hospitality brand) being at the higher end of the word spectrum.
Who’s the simp?
How about “simp”? It’s not exactly a new word. It has evolved, losing five original letters in the process, but gaining new meaning and currency with TikTokers. Back in the day, that word used to be “simpleton”, a man or woman generally thought or believed to be naïve, foolish. Hip-hop culture in the mouth of younger adults gave it a makeover.
They twisted it against men today, and now a simp is often used to describe a man who is overly anxious to please women. This seems to be the opposite of “demure,” a word formerly used to describe modesty in young ladies but now repurposed to convey cuteness in both sexes.
Instead of the “50-50 Love” Teddy Pendergrass crooned about in his album, a “simp” is a man who doesn’t mind five percent or less back for his affection and empathy in exchange for 100 percent. He is if you get my drift, a woman wrapper.
If you are already “vibing”, millennial-speak for “losing oneself in great music or conversation”, or feeling “shook”, the colloquial noun or verb for “surprise”, then welcome to the evolving vocab world of young adults fostered by the Internet. From activism to fashion, sports and dating, the language topography is changing, leaving older adults in a trail of incomprehensible slang.
Simply steeze
In the slang line-up for 2024, anyways, steeze, lit, rizz, vibing, shook, and simp are in the race. But the stage would be incomplete without “ghost” (to suddenly stop communicating with someone, as in ‘he ghosted me after our last meeting’), “no cap”, (the damn truth, no embellishment), as in ‘petrol prices will never return to N470/litre, no cap, or “snack”, (someone attractive, as in ‘she’s looking like a snack in that outfit’).
While these words have a global resonance, one would undoubtedly be at the top of your final list if you were a Nigerian young adult—at home or in the Diaspora: “E choke!” The harsher, more menacing version is “Hunger dey!” However, this latter expression has a broader application and is quite popular among older adults.
When young Nigerian adults say, “E choke,” they express the country’s severe economic hardship. This hardship has left many of them unable to have that shawarma or pizza, fix the braids they’d love to, or even chat for long without resorting to data mincing.
This ethos was expressed in the streets of many Nigerian states in August, when protesters, mostly angry youths, staged demonstrations captioned #Endbadgovernance, the lightning rod for economic hardship. But the word is used in more than one sense. It also conveys overwhelming pleasure, as in “Give me more, even if it kills me!”
E choke!
My five finalists for the words that most captured younger adults’ moods, feelings, imagination, and ethos in 2024 are e choke, steeze, no cap, vibing, and composure. I struggled to get the language tool on my laptop to accept these words. I had to overwrite them many times to retain them, as I wondered how examination bodies, like the West African Examination Council (WAEC), would cope with this lexical insurgency.
Is it an indication of the distance these words still have to travel in the transition from fad to mainstream? Or is society just too slow to catch up? No matter, as they say in millennia-speak, las, las, culture, language, and tool developers would be alright.
There is something really intriguing and fascinating about having a wonderful friend of yours grow into the septuagenarian circle. And this is even more crucial when that colleague has a history of stubborn ideological inclination that has kept him in shape as a scholar of note within Nigeria’s combustible intellectual firmament. From our mutual commitment to the political science scholarship and different approaches to the understanding of the Nigerian nation-building project, Professor Jibrin Ibrahim—Jibo to all of us—and I have become intellectual partners in progress. Both of us keep investing our intellectual and scholarly resources in the ongoing commitment to the understanding of the task of making the Nigerian state, on the one hand, more meaningful from the perspective of scholarship, and on the other hand, more citizen-friendly in terms of its capacity to leverage advocacy and discourse to achieve good governance.
Jibo is one academic that one can really say has kept up a coherent ideological trajectory since he emerged in the heydays of the radical Marxist-Leninist revolutionary movement as a key figure in the Nigerian Marxist circle. And yet it would seem that Jibo has made a critical shift away from the Marxist ideological framework that enabled his intellectual stature in the 1970s and 1980s. This shift says a lot about the current ideological state of the postcolonial Nigerian society. Professor Ibrahim was educated at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria and in the virile Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at a time when the university campuses in Nigeria constituted the hotbeds of ideological theorizing and mobilization; when scholars from Bala Usman to Mokwugo Okoye and Eskor Toyo to Molara Ogundipe-Leslie to Patrick Wilmot to Bala Takaya, and from Claude Ake to Edwin Madunagu to Bade Onimode to Akin Oyebode rallied round Marxism as the pathway to radical intellectual traditions. For these intellectuals, Marxism provided the ideological commitments to reflect on the possibility of a progressive framework through which Nigeria could be re-visioned as a postcolonial state.
I do not know whether there is still any coherence to the concept of the Nigerian Left—a body of progressives that are connected by the collective Marxian ideological framework for rethinking the dynamics of the Nigerian developmental and national manifestations. And my reason is not far-fetched. It would seem that the depth and extent of the Nigerian postcolonial predicament, the reach and strength of the neoliberal capitalist hegemony, and the fluctuating fortunes of Marxism have outstripped the capacity of the Nigerian Left to keep up their intellectual mapping of the relationship between ideology and reality. Indeed, it would seem that the Nigerian Left has become so fragmented as to be incapable of mustering the coherence required to push a progressive front. And this could also be because the fortunes of Marxism keep shifting conservative Marxism to Antonio Gramsci, and from the neo-Marxism of Theodor Adorno, Herbert Marcuse and Max Horkheimer of the Frankfurt School to the post-Marxism of Chantal Mouse and Ernesto Laclau, and from Samir Amin to Immanuel Wallerstein.
Maybe the fundamental issue in keeping Marxism relevant to the Nigerian postcolonial predicament would be how theoretically congruent Marxism and postcolonialism are. How, for instance, is Marxism’s Eurocentric foundation to be squared with the anti-Eurocentric stance in that animate postcolonial scholarship? Maybe this significant tension to get the utmost from an ideological position without any intellectual baggage is what led to the subtle shift of Jibo away from Marxism—or specifically activist Marxism—towards a more resilient and contextually malleable paradigm that enables the facilitation of radical politics within a space like Nigeria. For Jibo, the political end should justify the ideological means. He believes there must be a better way than doctrinaire Marxism to achieve radical politics that will reorient democracy and democratic governance on behalf of Nigerians.
This is where Jibo and I share many seminal platforms. The first critical platform is the political science scholarship in Nigeria. While I was the permanent secretary at the Ministry of Communication Technology in 2015, Professor Jibrin Ibrahim was asked to deliver the keynote paper at the 60th anniversary celebration lecture of the Department of Political Science, University of Ibadan. I was to be the chairman of the occasion. Jibo regrettably could not make the occasion. And the Department prevailed on me to take his place as the guest lecturer. In that lecture, titled “The Legitimacy of Political Science Scholarship in Nigeria,” I made the pungent argument that Nigeria’s postcolonial predicaments since independence have thrown series of debilitating unresolved challenges to query the relevance of political science scholarship in the country. Insurgency, corruption, youth unemployment, insecurity, dysfunctional federalism cum constitutional order, misgovernance, bad leadership—the list is endless—raise the critical question of the role of the Nigerian political scientists in the articulation of frameworks or paradigms of understanding and resolutions for redressing the Nigerian state and redesigning democratic governance.
These are not strange questions for me to ask as I have been a theorist and practitioner of public administration scholarship since I became a public servant many years ago. On resuming at the Presidency first in 1988, and much later in 1992, I was nudged by mentors to take on the additional task of studying the civil service as a means of understanding the dynamics of its dysfunction and the possible paths towards its institutional redemption. It was not too long for me to determine that the (mis)fortunes of the civil service system are tied in with those of the Nigerian state. My search for paradigms of institutional reform in Nigeria inevitably took me to expressing concerns for all forms of institutional reformative transformation, including those that affects political science scholarship. In that same lecture, I lamented not just the invisibility of Nigerian political scientists in the critical matters of the state, but also the ailing of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), a reality that has since significantly improved.
However, one political scientist that constitutes the exception in my lamentation is Professor Ibrahim. He is not just the political scientist par excellence since he completed his doctoral dissertation at the University of Bordeaux in 1990. He has become the lone ranger in the fight to deepen democracy through civil society activism. Civil society for him was the continuation of the struggles for progressive politics by another mean. It was simply the other side of the same coin in the fight to entrench radical politics that put people on the front burner of government’s policy decisions. I would say, on his behalf, that civil society engagement is closer to realizing the objective of democratic reforms than academic Marxism that leans more on the theoretical than the practical. But that is not to say, as most scholars believe, tragically, that theory and practice are disjointed. As a development expert, civil service engagement allows for a cogent involvement with the public policy processes in ways that pushes the boundaries of policy participation and ideological influence. Civil society allows Professor Jibrin Ibrahim to keep democratic and policy discourses at the level of ideological fundamental, without the baggage of Marxism.
And this brings me to the second seminal platform that connect me with Jibo. When I had to also make the critical decision to continue my reform advocacy by other means; at the point when I had to painfully exit the civil service as a critical insider, the establishment of the Ibadan School of Government and Public Policy (ISGPP) in 2016 was a most viable institutional platform that permits the articulation of my insider’s perspectives from the outside. And that “outside” allows me to deploy the critical significance of kindred intellectual, activist and advocate spirits in the task of making Nigeria work better for democracy and development. One of such is Jibo, of course! At the inauguration of ISGPP and in one defining piece in his celebrated column in the Premium Times, Jibo was enthusiastic about the determination of the School to return the discourse on government back to the table. According to him, “I welcome the idea, after twenty-seven years of discourse on that elusive and nebulous World Bank concept of GOVERNANCE, let’s get back to the essentials and start studying what ‘government’ actually does when it governs.”
This fundamental discursive element connects with, say, Jibo’s presence in journalism. The fight to raise the bar of fundamental issues that impacts the issues of political emancipation and democratic liberation cannot be limited to the pages of books and monographs. It must be delivered in digestible soundbites that an average Nigerian can understand and relate with. Indeed, the journalistic space further allows Professor Jibrin Ibrahim to bring the challenges of fixing the Nigerian state right into the context of the Nigerian masses and the need for them to also weigh into the determination of their destiny. And this speaks critically to the emergence of the post-truth social media. If democracy must be deepened through civil society vigilance, then Nigerian scholars, intellectuals and advocates need to mediate the tight rope between traditional journalism and the new media, plus the dangers of challenging social facts.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim is a critical septuagenarian, the type of intellectual who never stops fighting, who is never slowed down by age, who keeps pushing the boundaries of what they believe. We can only pray that your dream for the Nigerian masses may be realize just in time.
A major policy of the Tinubu administration designed to overhaul the nation’s inefficient tax codes and enhance fiscal performance of the government has run into unexpected opposition from key members of the President’s party and important stakeholders. I’m convinced that the reason some governors and lawmakers do not seem to understand or appreciate the intentions and objectives of the tax reform bills is because there was no adequate consultations and communication to sensitize and educate them. As we know, the Tinubu administration is not good at engaging with the citizens before it announces any policy decision. The fuel subsidy removal and the return of the old National Anthem are just two instances in which the administration rushed through decisions without deep thinking, planning and consultations. That most of the governors and lawmakers who are against this legislation are members of the President’s party is a pointer to its internal weakness as a political platform.
For a policy initiative to succeed, it must have the support of a cross section of citizens, particularly those for whom the policy is designed, and to gain such a support, there should be a well designed and implemented package of strategic communication strategy and engagements with the relevant stakeholders. From what we now know from the government, the tax bills are meant to eliminate double taxation; remove low income earners from the tax bracket, reduce the federal government’s share of VAT income and change the sharing formula for VAT to achieve equitability. Had the government mounted an effective communication and stakeholders’ engagement, some of the misunderstandings about the bills’ objectives, benefits, impacts on the revenues of the Northern States and the fates of some agencies like TETFUND would have been addressed. It’s a shame that there was no public hearing on the Tax Reform Bill before it was rushed to the National Assembly. It speaks to the hubris of the administration which is obsessed with overwhelming sense of self importance
In the absence of effective communication strategy, the bills became a subject of rumours, misleading information and wrong interpretations of its provisions. For an administration that has 17 spokespersons and is headed by a man who owns a TV station and a newspaper house, it is a surprise that citizens’ engagement is lacking in its staple. It’s an unspeakable mediocrity in a democracy to treat the people with so much disdain.
In 1988, the IBB military government rolled out a massive privatization programme which led to the sale of over 300 government’s assets to private and institutional investors. Before the programme kicked off, the agency that managed the massive sale, a massive sensitization programme was launched to educate Nigerians on why privatization was inevitable and that helped to blunt some of the criticisms. The communication team was headed by Emeka Maduegbunam, a seasoned TV anchor and PR professional. The messages were lucid, vivid, logical and convincing. I give kudos to Dr. Hamza Zayyad and Dr. Shamsuddeed Usman for the competencies with which they ran the privatization and commercialization programme. In March 2010, President Barrack Obama signed the Affordable Care Act (ACA) into law, making it one of the landmark legislations of his Presidency. Commonly known as the ObamaCare, ACA is the comprehensive health care reform law that addresses health insurance, health care costs and preventive care. The bill was widely opposed by the Republicans, but through a combination of masterly political skills, exceptional communication strategies and advocacy, the law was passed by both houses. I will advise the Tinubu team to read the relevant chapter of President Obama’s memoir, A Promised Land, on details of how he secured the vote at Congress and the support of Americans for this important legislation. Leadership is a serious business.
But what do we get from the Tinubu media team? A constant barrage of lengthy insulting and abusive press releases targeted at Peter Obi, Olusegun Obasanjo and just about anybody who tends to hold a different view from the government. Uncouth, abrasive and full of hubris, the team is obsessed with constant power struggle and jostling for power which has sapped it of energy and creativity. It lacks overall strategic focus and coherence in message and messaging. I do not know any member of the team that has impressive credentials in strategic communications and PR.
In terms of discipline, APC has not done well either; otherwise the party would have addressed the concerns of its vocal members like Prof. Zulum ; Senator Ali Ndume and a few others who have been constantly attacking the legislation and the perceived intentions government. It’s unusual for party luminaries to disagree so openly with their President and his policy. It is telling that Prof. Zulum is the successor to Vice President Shetima as Borno State Governor. While the governor is huffing and puffing, the VP has been quiet. Does it mean that the VP has not been able to convince Zulum on the good intentions and benefits of the bills, or is the VP himself not well briefed on them? If this were a parliamentary government, the lawmakers would probably be going for a No Confidence vote as we saw in France this week.
Effective communication and stakeholder engagement is an integral part of modern governance. Unfortunately, this administration has been very weak at it. This President has not held a news conference; press interview or town hall since he took office. He has only been to one or two states on a condolence visit. But we have seen harassments of many journalists and read so many derogatory press statements. It is just as well that President Tinubu has instructed the Ministry of Justice to work closely with the National Assembly to review the contentious portions of the draft legislation and the Senate, ever so compliant to to the Presidency, has suspended deliberations on it. While the review proceeds, the government should develop strategic communications and engagement plans to explain the bills better to stakeholders. They should keep in mind the seven Cs of communication (Clear; Correct; Complete; Concise; Concrete; Considerate and Courteous) as the engagements proceed.
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration embarks on its ambitious economic reforms, one of the most contentious and consequential initiatives is the proposed overhaul of Nigeria’s tax system. Not only been touted to be a critical measure to revitalize the nation’s finances when fully implemented, the reform aims to address chronic revenue shortfalls, curb tax evasion, and expand the tax base. Yet, as with any transformative agenda, the tax reform has sparked a wave of apprehension across different sectors of the economy.
The proposal to expand the country’s revenue streams, including through a harmonized Value Added Tax (VAT) system, has drawn criticism from various quarters. Notably, governors in the northern region of Nigeria have raised objections to certain aspects of the reform. Their resistance, combined with a broader cultural and socio-political debate, underscores the complexity of implementing such a sweeping policy.
Despite the baseless apprehension which the move has sparked across the nation, there is no denying the fact that there is an urgent need for tax reform. As gathered, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which stands at about 6.1%, is one of the lowest globally, far below the average of 16.5% for sub-Saharan Africa. This anomaly has long hindered the nation’s capacity to fund essential services and infrastructure. Given the foregoing statistical backdrop, which is no doubt appalling, Tinubu’s tax reform seeks to correct this by improving compliance, plugging revenue leakages, and promoting equity in tax collection.
The proposed reforms include measures to simplify the tax code, introduce digital tax systems, and ensure progressive taxation where wealthier individuals and corporations contribute a fairer share. While these changes promise to boost government revenues, they have also unearthed deep-seated fears among key stakeholders.
Governors from northern Nigeria, who are no doubt largely guided by Islamic principles, have expressed reservations about elements of the tax reform, particularly those relating to VAT. A significant portion of VAT revenue in Nigeria comes from alcohol sales, a product prohibited in many northern states under Sharia law.
Despite their objections to alcohol and their enforcement of bans on its sale and consumption, northern states have consistently benefited from the federal allocation of VAT, including revenue generated from alcohol sales. This paradox has fueled widespread criticism, with observers pointing out the inherent contradiction: how can states destroy beer trucks on one hand and still partake in the sharing of revenues from alcohol taxes on the other?
The issue raises fundamental questions about equity and consistency. If northern states wish to remain beneficiaries of national VAT revenues, they must adopt a fairer stance towards products and industries contributing to the tax pool. Alternatively, they might need to advocate for a regional or state-specific VAT system where revenue generation and allocation align more closely with local practices and laws.
While the political pushback from northern governors garners significant attention, the business community has also voiced apprehension. Many private-sector players worry that increased tax obligations could exacerbate the financial strain on businesses already grappling with inflation, high energy costs, and foreign exchange volatility. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), in particular, fear that stricter compliance measures might disproportionately affect their operations, pushing some to the brink of closure.
Corporate executives argue that implementing new tax measures during an economically turbulent period could stifle investment and innovation. They call for a phased approach that allows businesses time to adapt to the changes while safeguarding their profitability.
For ordinary Nigerians, the fear is more visceral. With rising living costs and dwindling purchasing power, any hint of increased taxes feels like a dagger to the heart of survival. Tinubu’s administration has repeatedly assured citizens that the reforms are designed to target high-income earners and large corporations rather than the poor. However, skepticism remains widespread, fueled by a history of mistrust in government initiatives.
The question lingers: “Will these reforms truly avoid cascading effects on consumer prices, or will Nigerians find themselves paying more for basic goods and services?” For many in the northern region, where poverty levels are disproportionately high, the fear is even more pronounced.
At the heart of the controversy surrounding the VAT allocation is the question of alcohol taxes. In northern states where Sharia law is enforced, alcohol is often treated as contraband. This has led to frequent raids and destruction of alcohol products being transported to markets.
While these actions reflect the cultural and religious sentiments of the region, they also create an ethical dilemma. Should states that actively prohibit and destroy a taxable product be entitled to share in the revenues derived from its sale? This question has ignited debates across the country, with many southern stakeholders calling for a reevaluation of the VAT-sharing formula.
Critics argue that it is unjust for northern states to reject the production and consumption of alcohol while benefiting financially from its taxation. This situation, they contend, highlights the need for a more transparent and equitable revenue allocation framework that respects regional differences without fostering dependency or contradiction.
In fact, Tinubu’s tax reform has also faced resistance within political circles. Critics argue that the administration should focus more on cutting government waste and improving expenditure efficiency before increasing taxes. Some elites, accustomed to exploiting loopholes to avoid paying their fair share, are predictably unsettled by the prospect of tighter enforcement.
Political analysts suggest that these opponents may deploy their influence to stymie the reform’s progress, framing it as anti-business or punitive. This opposition underscores the high stakes of the reform agenda and the entrenched interests it threatens to disrupt.
Without any iota of exaggeration, it is not a misnomer to opine that the success of Tinubu’s tax reform will hinge on the administration’s ability to address these regional and sectoral concerns transparently and inclusively. This is as public engagement is crucial to dispel fears and garner support. The government must also demonstrate fiscal discipline by addressing corruption and ensuring that revenues generated through the reform are channeled into tangible improvements in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and social services.
For the northern states, this may require a difficult but necessary reckoning. If they wish to continue benefiting from national tax revenues, they must adopt a more equitable stance on industries contributing to the tax pool. Alternatively, Nigeria may need to explore a federal VAT system that allows states to keep revenues generated locally, incentivizing them to adopt policies that encourage economic activity.
Without a doubt, Tinubu’s tax reform is a litmus test for his administration’s resolve to address Nigeria’s fiscal challenges. While fears abound, they should not overshadow the reform’s potential to catalyze a more sustainable and equitable economy.
The controversy over northern states’ stance on alcohol taxes encapsulates the broader challenge: balancing cultural, religious, and economic considerations in a diverse nation. The question is not just “Who is afraid of Tinubu’s tax reform?” but also, “Who is willing to embrace it for the greater good of Nigeria?”
In navigating this delicate terrain, the government must remember that meaningful reform requires not just bold ideas but also empathy, fairness, and inclusivity. If managed correctly, these reforms could lay the foundation for a stronger, more unified Nigeria where all states contribute equitably and benefit proportionately.
In the labyrinth of Nigerian politics, where loyalty is often sacrificed at the altar of ambition, the story of Donatus Matthew, a former Okada rider turned federal lawmaker, serves as a glaring illustration of opportunism. Matthew’s remarkable ascent to the House of Representatives as a representative of Kaura Federal Constituency in Southern Kaduna under the Labour Party (LP) banner was a beacon of hope, a testimony to the power of grassroots support. However, his recent defection to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) reveals the darker side of Nigerian politics: the propensity to betray the very platform and people who propelled one to power.
Matthew’s journey from being an Okada rider to a federal lawmaker captured the imagination of many Nigerians. His victory over Gideon Gwani, a four-term incumbent and Minority Chief Whip of the House of Representatives under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was nothing short of revolutionary. It symbolized a shift in the political dynamics of Kaura Federal Constituency, fueled by the “Obidient wave” led by Peter Obi’s Labour Party.
His story resonated deeply with Nigerians disillusioned by the political status quo. Matthew embodied the aspirations of ordinary citizens seeking representation by leaders who understood their struggles. His victory was celebrated far and wide, with activists like Stephen Kefason hailing it as a victory for the people of Southern Kaduna.
Yet, less than two years into his tenure, Matthew has dealt a heavy blow to his supporters by defecting to the APC. This defection, coming from a man whose rise was rooted in the grassroots mobilization and ideological fervor of the Labour Party, is nothing short of a betrayal. It is a painful reminder of the opportunistic tendencies that plague Nigerian politics.
Activist Stephen Kefason, one of Matthew’s early supporters, expressed his disappointment in a scathing post on X (formerly Twitter). Kefason did not mince words, describing Matthew as “opportunistic” and accusing him of capitalizing on Peter Obi’s popularity to secure his position, only to abandon the movement once his political ambitions were achieved.
Matthew’s defection is not an isolated incident. It is symptomatic of a broader culture of political nomadism in Nigeria, where politicians shift allegiances for personal gain rather than ideological convictions. This behavior erodes the foundation of democracy, which thrives on accountability and trust between leaders and the electorate.
In Matthew’s case, the timing and nature of his defection suggest that it was motivated by political convenience rather than any principled disagreement with the Labour Party’s ideology. The APC, as the ruling party, offers access to resources, patronage, and political cover, temptations that many politicians find irresistible.
However, this culture of defection has far-reaching consequences. It diminishes public trust in politicians and undermines the credibility of political parties. When leaders like Matthew abandon the platforms that brought them to prominence, they send a message that political promises and commitments are expendable.
Matthew’s actions raise serious questions about his character and priorities. His victory was not merely a personal achievement but a mandate entrusted to him by voters who believed in the ideals of the Labour Party and the broader “Obidient movement.” By defecting to the APC, Matthew has disregarded the trust of his constituents and aligned himself with a party that many of his supporters view as emblematic of the problems they sought to change.
Critics have also pointed to Matthew’s underwhelming performance as a lawmaker. Since joining the National Assembly, he has reportedly not sponsored any bills or motions. This lack of legislative activity further fuels the perception that his defection is less about serving his constituents and more about securing his political future.
Matthew’s defection underscores a troubling reality in Nigerian politics: the absence of ideological commitment among many politicians. Parties are treated as mere vehicles for achieving power, with little regard for their principles or the electorate’s aspirations. This trend undermines the development of strong political institutions and perpetuates a cycle of instability and disillusionment.
For voters, such betrayals deepen cynicism and apathy, making it harder to mobilize grassroots support for future movements. Why invest time, energy, and hope in a leader who might abandon their mandate at the first opportunity?
At its core, Matthew’s defection is a betrayal of trust. The Labour Party and the “Obidient wave” represented more than just a political movement; they symbolized a collective desire for change, for a new kind of politics that prioritized the needs of the people over personal ambition. By abandoning the Labour Party, Matthew has not only bitten the hand that fed him but also trampled on the hopes of those who believed in him.
Matthew’s defection should serve as a wake-up call for political parties, voters, and institutions. Against the foregoing backdrop, it is expedient to opine that a few steps that can help mitigate the damage caused by such betrayals cut across strengthening party discipline, instilling voter accountability, instilling civic education, and reforming the political system.
The put the foregoing steps in details, it is expedient to opine that political parties must establish mechanisms to discourage defections, such as requiring defectors to relinquish their seats. This would ensure that mandates remain tied to the parties that earned them.
In a similar vein, constituents must hold their representatives accountable, demanding transparency and engagement throughout their tenure. Defections that betray the electorate’s trust should be met with public condemnation and political consequences.
Also in a similar vein, there is the need for the education of voters about the importance of ideological consistency and the role of political parties in governance can help create a more informed electorate.
Added to the above steps is that Nigeria’s political system must be restructured to prioritize service delivery over personal gain. This includes addressing the excessive perks and privileges that make political office so attractive.
In fact, Donatus Matthew’s defection from the Labour Party to the APC is more than a personal decision; it is a reflection of the broader challenges facing Nigeria’s political landscape. By biting the hand that fed him, Matthew has not only betrayed his party and supporters but also highlighted the urgent need for reform in how politics is practiced in the country.
For the electorate, Matthew’s actions serve as a stark reminder to scrutinize leaders not just for their promises but also for their commitment to principles. Trust is the currency of democracy, and when it is squandered, the cost is borne by all.
As Nigeria grapples with its political challenges, one thing is clear: the path to a better future requires leaders who are not just opportunists but true representatives of the people. Donatus Matthew’s story is a cautionary tale, a lesson in the dangers of placing hope in leaders who prioritize ambition over service.
[OPINION] Afe Babalola: At 95, What Are You Doing to Your Legacy, Your Name, Your Home Place—and to Dele Farotimi? - John Egbeazien Oshodi
AdminAfe Babalola, at 95 years old, your name carries immense weight in Nigeria. You are a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), a legal titan, and a celebrated builder of institutions. You have lived a life many could only dream of—a career that began in the 1960s, when you returned from London armed with degrees and a calling to shape Nigeria’s legal landscape. Your influence spans decades, reaching your birthplace, Ado Ekiti, where you are not just a son but a kingmaker. But now, at the twilight of your life, you have allowed anger, ego, and a thirst for vengeance to taint the legacy you spent a lifetime building. Good God, Afe Babalola—at 95, what are you doing?
Farotimi and the Unchecked Wrath of Your Ego
Dele Farotimi, a human rights lawyer and fearless critic, dared to write something that bruised your pride. In his book, Nigeria and Its Criminal Justice System, he accused you of influencing the judiciary—words that clearly struck a nerve. Yes, defamation can sting; it challenges how others perceive you. But Babalola, was this how you chose to respond? By unleashing AK-47-wielding police officers to storm his legal office, abduct him like a fugitive, drag him across state lines to Ekiti—your birthplace and sphere of influence—and lock him in prison?
This wasn’t a pursuit of justice; this was rage, unchecked and weaponized. At 95, instead of offering a dignified rebuttal or seeking redress through lawful civil processes, you turned to brute force and intimidation. Babalola, are you proud of this road you’ve taken—a road paved not with law and reason, but with power and vengeance? Does this bring you peace, or does it simply reveal the fragility of a legacy built on influence but now shaken by a single book?
This is not the justice you spent decades advocating for. This is not the Afe Babalola who established institutions to educate the next generation. This is not the legacy of a man who became a beacon of excellence in the legal profession. This is something else entirely—an act of revenge, a misuse of influence, and a display of unchecked power. At 95, is this the story you want to be told about you? That you used the police, the judiciary, and your immense sway in Ekiti to crush a man who dared to say something that offended you?
Your Place of Birth and Influence: A Stage for Intimidation
Ekiti State, your birthplace, carries a legacy intertwined with your name. Ado Ekiti is more than a town; it is the foundation of your life’s story, a place shaped by your influence. Yet, like so many parts of Nigeria, it is not immune to whispers of judicial compromise—where magistrates often face undue pressure, judges tread carefully under the shadow of reprisal, and the decisions rendered sometimes reflect the weight of power more than the rule of law. It is within this complex and fragile system that Dele Farotimi now finds himself, facing circumstances that call into question the very principles of justice and fairness.
Farotimi was hauled into an Ekiti magistrate court and denied bail in a state where your word carries the force of law. A man locked in a cell not because he committed a heinous crime, but because he wrote words that angered you. Good God, Babalola, think about the pain you are inflicting on this man—not just the physical pain of imprisonment, but the mental torment of being victimized by a system you so thoroughly dominate. Is this what you want for your birthplace? For Ekiti to be remembered not as the home of a great legal mind but as a place where the powerful crush dissent?
What Will You Tell the Next Generation?
You are a teacher, a builder, and a mentor to countless lawyers. What will you tell them about this chapter of your life? That you used your immense legal knowledge to teach the importance of justice, or that you used your influence to exact revenge? What do you want young lawyers to learn from this? That defamation, an emotional wound, justifies weaponizing the police and judiciary? That the power you’ve built over a lifetime is best spent silencing critics rather than uplifting the law?
At 95, you are closer to meeting your Creator than most of us. When that time comes, what will you say to Him? That you allowed your anger to overshadow your achievements? That you used the police not as enforcers of justice but as tools of intimidation? That you let ego, not wisdom, guide your final years?
Farotimi’s Pain: What Have You Done?
Dele Farotimi’s arrest has not silenced him. It has amplified his voice. The pain you have inflicted on this man—dragging him from his legal office, imprisoning him in Ekiti, forcing him to endure a system that you know is broken—has not made you stronger. It has exposed the very abuses he speaks of. Farotimi has long said that the powerful in Nigeria use the police and judiciary to serve their interests, and here you are, proving him right.
What satisfaction have you gained from this? A fleeting sense of power? A temporary quelling of your wounded ego? Or are you simply consumed by anger, unable to see the damage you are doing—not to Farotimi, but to yourself, your legacy, and the place you call home?
A Judiciary Under Pressure, a Police Force Without Direction
Babalola, you know the judiciary in Nigeria is compromised. You’ve seen it all—the bribes, the pressures, the rulings dictated by influence. Judges in Ekiti, like in most parts of Nigeria, often act under duress, fearing the repercussions of defying powerful figures like you. You know this, and yet you allowed Farotimi to be locked up in this system. What does this achieve? What is the point of having a magistrate remand him when the system itself is so riddled with flaws? Is this the justice you want to be remembered for?
And the police—those who stormed Farotimi’s office with rifles, as though they were capturing a dangerous criminal—what message does this send to the world? That in Nigeria, a man can be treated like a fugitive for words he wrote in a book? That the police exist not to protect citizens but to serve the anger of the elite? Babalola, this is the system you have chosen to align yourself with. This is the system you now represent.
Afe Babalola’s Painful Choices—Will the Nightmares Ever End?
Here you are, going to sleep tonight with Dele Farotimi locked up in prison, awaiting his next hearing on December 10, as ordered by Magistrate Abayomi Adeosun. For defamation—a matter long recognized as civil—and with the police attempting to justify their actions under the pretext of cybercrime, this charade is nothing short of tragic. Cybercrime, a convenient catch-all accusation in Nigeria’s legal landscape, was introduced here as a desperate attempt to add weight to a case that should never have escalated beyond civil litigation.
How do you reconcile this with your legacy, built over decades of legal excellence? Will the nights ahead be haunted by dreams of him, locked behind bars because of your wounded ego—a 95-year-old man with a name revered across Nigeria, now risking it all in an act of power-driven vengeance?
What justice is there in using your influence to imprison a man for words? Your legacy deserved better, but now it will carry the weight of this moment—a moment where wisdom gave way to anger, and power overshadowed fairness. Will these decisions let you sleep in peace, or will they leave you questioning the choices that have brought you here?
Afe Babalola: Fighting Words with Guns—Is This the Legacy You Want?
No matter the AK-47s or the heavy-handed tactics, at the core of this spectacle lies a wounded ego, Babalola. Farotimi’s 2024 book, Nigeria and Its Criminal Justice System, questioned your legacy with allegations that you influenced Supreme Court judgments for your clients, casting shadows over the judiciary’s integrity. Instead of meeting these words with truth, debate, or the dignity expected of a man of your stature, you chose a path of force—arming the police to silence a critic. Babalola, do you truly believe this brutal display of power will restore your name, or does it reveal a deeper fear of the very words that challenge your legacy? At 95, is this what your decades of excellence have come to—a battle against words with guns?
Turning Farotimi’s Book Into a Symbol of Resistance
Oh Babalola, in your fit of emotional outrage and abuse of power, you have achieved the very opposite of what you intended. By targeting Dele Farotimi, a human rights lawyer, you have turned him into a symbol of defiance against oppression. His book, Nigeria and Its Criminal Justice System, once an underappreciated critique of systemic corruption, is now a sensation. Thousands are Googling it, publishers are overwhelmed with orders, and now, more than ever, they will know the rot you sought to bury.
The words you tried to silence are echoing louder than ever, exposing the very system you are a part of. Afe, your actions have amplified his truth, and this is what you get—turning a critic into a hero and your legacy into a cautionary tale of ego and misused power.
What Will You Tell God?
At 95, you have seen more of life than most. You have achieved what many can only dream of. But in these final years, what will you tell God when you meet Him? That you used your influence to lock up a man who challenged you? That your anger over words in a book drove you to misuse the very institutions you once upheld? That the power you spent a lifetime building was ultimately spent silencing dissent? Babalola, is this how you want to go out of this life?
A Civil Matter Turned Cruel—Why Has Justice Been Forsaken?
Babalola, this is the painful ending you have chosen for yourself at 95. A legacy built on decades of legal excellence and national respect now overshadowed by an act of vengeance. Dele Farotimi, a human rights lawyer, sits locked in a Nigerian prison—a place of overcrowded cells, no sanitation, and unimaginable suffering—all for words he wrote in a book. Words.
Defamation, firmly rooted in civil law, should never have spiraled into this grim spectacle. Criminal defamation, long abolished in Lagos and dismissed by modern legal standards, has no place here. And even if it did, the principles of bail and humane treatment demand fairness. Yet here we are, with a man stripped of his freedom, dragged from Lagos to Ekiti, and left to endure conditions that break the human spirit.
This was never about justice. It’s about a chilling message—not just to Farotimi but to anyone who dares to speak truth to power. Why, in a matter so clearly civil, must the punishment be so brutal and disproportionate? Even if the system could somehow justify these charges, why take a route so steeped in cruelty and ego-driven vengeance? Why allow your towering legacy to be tarnished by actions that defy compassion, fairness, and wisdom?
A Legacy at Risk: Your Final Chapter Is Being Written
Babalola, your legacy, built over decades, is being rewritten—not by your achievements but by this act of anger. It is no longer about the institutions you built or the respect you earned. It is about this moment, a moment where your choices have overshadowed everything else. Farotimi’s imprisonment is not just a story about him; it is a story about you, your choices, and the path you have taken in the twilight of your life.
At 95, you stand at a crossroads. Will this be the final chapter history remembers—a man who let ego and wounded pride define his legacy? Or will you step back, release Farotimi, and allow wisdom to guide your final years?
The world is watching, and history will not forget. Good God, Babalola—at 95, is this really how it ends?
Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi‘s state visit to Nigeria from 17-18 November 17 – 18 to “strengthen the current India-Nigeria Strategic Partnership” was but a renewal of over six decades of bilateral relationship between India and Nigeria dating back to 1958 – two years before Nigeria secured her independence from Britain. While the two leaders spoke of the immense potential for collaboration in the fields of trade, investment, education, energy, health, culture, Prime Minister Modi also offered India’s experience in agriculture, transportation, affordable medicine, renewable energy, and digital transformation to Nigeria.
Nigeria has always benefitted from her close relationship with India. For instance, besides the support of India teachers and doctors which Nigeria enjoyed immediately after independence, it is on record that it was India that established the National Defence Academy in Kaduna and the Naval War College, Port Harcourt. Today there are about 60,000-strong Indian expatriate community in Nigeria and over 200 Indian companies with investment portfolio of over $27 billion.
As post-colonial nation-states created by Britain to satisfy her greed for continued exploitation of resources of conquered and colonized territories, India and Nigeria share some parallels. Both are heterogeneous and multicultural societies where groups at different levels of cultural development were forcibly merged together without consultation. While Nigeria with a population of over 200m has about 350 ethnic groups, India with a population of about 1.4 billion has over 2000 ethnic groups. Sowing the seeds of future instability by Britain was not by accident. British officials, after all, had earlier boasted that it was their presence alone that had prevented the newly created states of Africa and Asia ‘from disastrous descent into turmoil of warring sects’. Institutionalising a federal arrangement for strange bed-fellows as a strategy for exploiting ethnic consciousness of federating ethnic nationalities was not out of place.
India is ethnically diverse with significant diversity within regions; almost every state and several districts have its own distinct mixture of ethnicities, traditions, and culture. But India, unlike Nigeria has been able to manage her diversity because India’s political elite saw their pluralism as strength and accepted the challenge of living together. They saw nothing wrong with tribes and made conscious effort to create states on basis of languages spoken by citizens such as Maharashtra, Punjab and West Bengal.
The federal system of India provides equality to all the citizens as well as freedom of expression and freedom to practice their religion, etc. In terms of financial relations, India follows a system of fiscal federalism, where financial resources are distributed between the central and state governments. The constitution provides for the sharing of taxes and grants-in-aid to ensure financial autonomy for the states.
Like India, our own 1957 constitution also laid down the framework for a federal system of government clearly defining the powers and responsibilities of the central and regional governments. The regional list includes subjects of local or regional importance, such as police, public health, and agriculture. The concurrent list includes subjects on which both the central and state governments can legislate. Fiscal federalism ensures or guarantees financial autonomy of federating regions.
Sadly, unlike India’s elite, our deceitful political elite undermined our own federal arrangement by unconstitutionally interfering in the affairs of the regions, and assaulting the tribes, the building block for African societies, claiming, albeit falsely, that it is possible to love Nigeria more than your family or your tribe which will be like climbing the palm tree from the top.
Despite the provision of the 1957 constitution, the feudal lords in the north did not allow freedom of religion. The 1963 republican constitution, the first to be wholly midwifed by Nigerian elite provided the coalition partners an opportunity to insert a clause that would allow them to arrest and detain people without court order for expressing their opinion. The first victim was Obafemi Awolowo who was detained for criticizing Anglo-Nigerian defence pact.
However, while India was busy setting up technology special schools (India Institute of Technology (IITS), the India Institute of Science (IISc) and National Institute of Technology (NITS) that attracted the best brains among India’s youths which has today resulted in Indian engineers heading most of the leading tech companies in the world, we were busy replicating federal government unity schools across Nigeria.
India started the arduous task by first taming the feudal lords, who had to be replaced by the capitalist class who know how to mobilise the people to secure power. India did this without underestimating the intrigues of the metropolitan powers. As President Bola Tinubu moves from France to Britain and to Germany, he must not forget the duplicitous role of Britain as foremost promoter of ethnic consciousness, secret supporter of Fulani claim of ownership of Nigeria, and betrayer of Biafra that had expected her support as chief promoter of ethnic consciousness.
India therefore emerged as a union of nationalist groups that respect the culture and values of federating members. Apart from Hindi, the official language spoken by about 40 percent, there are about 20 other recognized languages. They understand their challenges include taming the feudal lords who have to be replaced by the capitalist class. They did not underestimate the intrigues of the metropolitan powers in the guise of promoting ethnic consciousness. Or preventing the disintegration of areas amalgamated without consideration for their level of cultural development and favoured one group above the other.
Patriotism for Indians is not about loving India. That comes naturally from the union of nationalities. They don’t have to set up unity schools, institutionalize quota system of admission to tertiary institutions or into bureaucracy, discriminatory admission marks for JAMB or decree a National Youth Service in pursuit of elusive unity.
Instead, they set up competitive tech schools that attract the best of their youths. The result today is that most of the best tech companies in the world are headed by Indians. Indian leaders don’t need to decree patriotism. The billions of dollars repatriated back to India yearly by their tech experts in high demand in Europe and North America speak louder than the voices of those turned their brainwaves to state policies.
India’s visionary leaders didn’t have to mouth unity or patriotism. All they did was to invest in the education of their youths. The product of such schools are today in charge of India’s economy, ranked fifth in the world by GDP and in fact projected to become the third largest economy by the end of the decade.
We institutionalized quota system of admission into the unity schools to accommodate those who as a result of lower scores could not compete with their counterparts. In the name of unity, we set up JAMB to accommodate those who have no business in the universities, and quota system of recruiting third class graduates at the expense of first class graduates into the bureaucracy.
We don’t need to search far as to why India has become choice destination for Nigeria’s medical tourism, why our best graduates are moving in droves to seek greener pastures in Europe, Canada and USA and why India’s elite has been able to stabilize their democracy, their economy, sent satellite to the moon and became a nuclear power while our own elite remain the scourge of our nation.
More...
Human beings naturally resist change. When comfortable where we are, we find it extremely difficult to embrace an uncharted path or seek greater glory. Those who are risk averse often don’t want to venture out to embrace unfamiliar territories no matter how tempting the possible reward may appear. We should not, however, be so imprisoned by the fear of the unknown not to explore new possibilities because we find our present circumstances satisfying enough.
Since the public debate around the Tax Reform Bills started, the strongest push back against it has come largely from the north. Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Zulum has become the face of the resistance for the reasons he has pushed forward, even when some of them didn’t speak to the facts and provisions of the bills.
If Governor Zulum and other voices of resistance who think the states will be shortchanged had actually taken time to examine the four executive Bills, they will see how progressive and transformative the Bills are. They will also discern the thought behind them which is primarily to make both the Federal and sub-nationals fiscally stronger and buoyant.
In his public presentations and the most recent being the Channels TV Town Hall moderated by Seun Okinbaloye Monday evening, Chairman of Presidential Committee on Tax and Fiscal Policy Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele and other panelists again made convincing arguments for the passage of the Bills before the National Assembly.
Here are the 10 ways the Tax Bills will serve the states better and enhance their capacity to earn more revenue:
1. The federal government will cede 5% out of its current 15% share of VAT revenue to states.
2. The Bills will transfer income from the Electronic Money Transfer levy exclusively to states as part of stamp duties.
3. The Bills seek to repeal obsolete stamp duties law and re-enactment of a simplified law to enhance the revenue for states.
4. Under the new dispensation the Tax Bills will usher in, states will be entitled to the tax of Limited Liability Partnerships.
5. When passed by the National Assembly, the Tax Bills will enable the state government to enjoy tax exemption on their bonds to be at par with federal government bonds.
6. Under the proposed tax reform, states will enjoy a more equitable model for VAT attribution and distribution that will lead to higher VAT income.
7. Integrated tax administration will provide tax intelligence to states, strengthen capacity development and collaboration, and scope of Tax Appeal Tribunal to cover taxpayer disputes on state taxes.
8. The proposed tax laws grant powers for Accountant General of the Federation to deduct taxes unremitted by a government or MDA and pay to the beneficiary sub-national government on personal income tax of workers of federal institutions in states.
9. Framework to grant autonomy for states internal revenue service and enhanced Joint Revenue Board to promote collaborative fiscal federalism.
10. Legal framework for taxation of lottery and gaming and introduction of withholding tax for the benefit of states.
From the aforementioned, it is clear that the Tax Bills are not in any way injurious to the states. Apart from streamlining the tax system in Nigeria and catalysing economic output, the tax and fiscal policy reforms provide incentives for states to become economic powerhouses. The challenge for governors will be to put on their thinking cap by investing in manpower and critical social and physical infrastructure in their states that will support businesses and socio-economic activities to flourish.
Ajayi is the senior special assistant to the president on media and publicity
The controversy surrounding the proposed adjustment to the formula for sharing the states’ portion of the Value Added Tax (VAT), especially the derivation component, in the tax reform bills submitted to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu is yet to abate. What I find interesting is that many readers are asking for my take on the issue. When I respond with ‘Tinubu, Wike and the Politics of VAT’ published on this page on 16 September 2021, everyone to whom I have forwarded the column replied that it is worth publishing again because it addresses many of the issues that are currently in the public domain. As I wrote in the column almost two years before he became president, the VAT battle was ignited by Tinubu as Lagos State governor. But is he handling the issue well now that he is president of Nigeria?
Before I draw my conclusions on this vexatious issue, let me also state for the benefit of those who do not know me and may not be familiar with my writing that I am not the author of a piece being circulated on WhatsApp credited to one Olusegun S. Adeniyi. Aside the fact that Kwara State, from where I hail, is in the northern part of Nigeria, I don’t subscribe to unhelpful and divisive rhetoric. Now to the slightly abridged column of September 2021, before I conclude with my take on the current logjam.
===============================================================================================================
In September 2018, there was an interesting exchange in Premium Times between Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and his ‘illustrious predecessor’ (as he described him), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The issue in contention was restructuring of the country. The latter had taken on the former on his postulation that what Nigeria required was “managing resources properly and providing for the people properly.” To Atiku, Osinbajo failed “to appreciate the connection between Nigeria’s defective structure and its underperformance.” Defending his stance, Osinbajo argued that “good governance involves, inter alia, transparency and prudence in public finance,” before throwing this punchline: “Surprisingly, Alhaji Atiku leaves out the elephant in the room – corruption. And how grand corruption, fueled by a rentier economic structure benefits those who can use political positions or access to either loot the treasury or get favorable concessions to enrich themselves.”
I have spent considerable time in the past week investigating the VAT case under reference and my findings are quite revealing. In the statement of claim filed at the Supreme Court, the LASG under Tinubu had stated: “The House of Assembly of Lagos State of Nigeria is the body entitled, to the exclusion of any other legislative body, to enact laws with regard to the imposition and collection of tax on the supply of all goods and services within Lagos State of Nigeria and that Lagos State of Nigeria, or any agency of the State, is the body entitled, to the exclusion of any other body, to assess and collect such tax, and that the revenue of the Lagos State Government has been and continues to be affected by the enforcement of provisions of the Value Added Tax Act.”
Based on this claim, Lagos then urged the Supreme Court to determine “Whether upon the coming into effect of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, the said Value Added Tax Act is an existing law within the meaning of Section 315 of the said Constitution, being a federal legislation, which is deemed to be an Act of the National Assembly.”
Apparently mindful of the implications of the case against the background of some earlier rulings, the Supreme Court counselled Lagos to seek a political solution on the issue. That was understandable. A few years earlier, when the state challenged the powers of the federal government to grant licenses and permits to erect structures in Lagos without prior knowledge or consent, the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the state. The apex court held that any item “not expressly mentioned in the Exclusive Legislative List or Concurrent Legislative List is Residual and within the legislative competence of the state government.”
Knowing it had a solid case on VAT, Lagos refused to toe the suggested line of political solution. Eventually, the federal government filed a preliminary objection on technical point, asking the supreme court to strike out the case on grounds that there was no dispute between it and Lagos. The authority being challenged by Lagos, according to the federal government, was that of the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) hence the suit ought to have been filed at the Federal High Court (FHC). The federal government averred: “The Plaintiff’s cause of action relates to acts of a federal organ and cannot form the basis of invoking this Honourable Court’s Original Jurisdiction to entertain this suit; and the entire suit constitutes an abuse of court processes.”
In determining the case, the Supreme Court held that based on the affidavits filed, the grouse in question was about “…a dispute pertaining to the operation of an agency of the federal government.” With that, the Supreme Court concluded that it was the FHC “that was imbued with jurisdiction to the exclusion of any other court in civil causes and matters relating to the revenue of the government; connected with or pertaining to taxation of companies and other bodies; the operation and interpretation of the constitution in so far as it affected the federal government or any of its agencies.”
There were arguments at the time that the Supreme Court deliberately chose a clever route since Lagos was challenging the VAT Act enacted by the National Assembly and not FIRS as claimed by the federal government. But Lagos was left with the option to take the matter up at the FHC. Somewhere along the line, the state that had for 16 years been in opposition suddenly found itself in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015 and decided not to pursue the matter any further.
However, apparently taking a cue from Lagos, Rivers State under Governor Nyesom Wike filed a case against the FIRS at the FHC. And in his judgement, Justice Stephen Pam declared that FIRS “has no constitutional authority to enforce and administer taxes not expressly stipulated under Items 58 and 59, Part I, Second Schedule to the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.” Following that decision, the Rivers State House of Assembly quickly enacted VAT Law No. 4 of 2021 to end the authority of the FIRS to administer, collect and enforce the VAT Act, 2007 in Rivers State. Lagos State that had pretended to be sleeping on the issue also jumped in with the accelerated passage of the VAT bill “in line with fiscal federalism that we have been talking about.”
I have always suspected that the VAT law would unravel one day. In a 2016 interview, former president of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN) and respected tax consultant, Mr Emmanuel Ijewere (he passed away last December), explained the mandate General Ibrahim Babangida gave the committee (which he chaired) that came up with the VAT law in 1993. “What was happening at that time was that there was a sales tax in several states, and there was no particular rule as to what they were charging. It was being used as a source of creating confusion, so the government now said let us standardize it.” Ijewere said his committee was told that “whatever money was collected in a state belongs to that state” while the VAT tax commission would retain 5% for administration. “Somewhere along the line, the federal government took it over, pushed the states aside, and that defeated the whole thing. It now turns out that the states that are generating a lot more VAT are not getting the commensurate amount of money from their economic activities and that was the unfair part of it.”
It is difficult to fault Wike’s argument that it makes no sense that Rivers State generated N15 billion VAT revenue in June this year but got N4.7 billion (about 30%) in return, while Kano generated N2.8 billion in the same month and got the same N2.8 billion back (100%). Meanwhile, Lagos State that generated N46.4 billion in the same month, was allocated N9.3 billion (about 20%). “Sometimes, you don’t want to believe these things exist,” Wike said. But while the Rivers Governor may have championed the recent fight, Tinubu was in the forefront before the APC came to the centre.
Meanwhile, the FHC judgement in favour of the Rivers State Government has thrown up issues about the nature of our system. If we were running a proper federation, the federal government would have jumped at it; being the biggest beneficiary if we disaggregate the VAT components. But many of the states would suffer and that is where the interest of the federal government comes in. With Wike talking tough against the background of the mismanagement of our diversity by the current administration, the VAT issue has provoked another North-South brouhaha. I want to deal with a few of them before I conclude.
Since everybody is talking about alcohol, including those who don’t drink, let us start from the VAT derived from it. In addressing the unholy wedlock between religious pulpit and political podium in Nigeria in my September 2019 column, I referenced the issue, following the destruction by the Kano State Hisbah Board of 196,400 bottles of beer in its effort to ensure a “sane, peaceful and sharia-compliant society.” I wrote: “this is the sort of hypocritical decisions that makes many to question the viability of our federal structure. The issue of VAT revenue is one of the strongest points being canvassed by proponents of restructuring the country. It is also one of the arguments made by Atiku before the last general election. ‘If a state is opposed to cattle tax or bicycle tax or alcohol tax, or pollution tax, for instance, it should not expect to share in the tax proceeds from those items,’ Atiku said in 2017.”
So, I align myself with those who say states that ban alcohol cannot benefit from VAT derived therefrom. But the notion of a ‘Parasitic North’ and ‘Productive South’ that forms the basis of most narratives when discussing the contradictions of Nigeria is not supported by any empirical evidence. While we cannot discount the argument of the Niger Delta whose people have for decades borne the brunt of oil exploration without much to show for the resource, the oil money for which some people deride others is rent rather than “any rigorous productive activity,” as Alhaji Bashir Ibrahim Yusuf reminded some of us in a chat group during the week. “The most hardworking Nigerians are the farmers who feed the nation with iron age tools without a fair reward for their labour.” And you find this class of Nigerians everywhere in the country.
As I have consistently argued on this page, the saber-rattling about North and South is a distraction from the real issue which is that Nigeria is not working for majority of its citizens. Now that the system is creaking beneath all of us, we must begin to fix it by bringing to the table the productive capacities of every citizen which means we need to wean ourselves of this distributive mentality that oil has foisted on our collective psyche. When the federal government argues for the retention of the status quo on VAT, it is to protect at least 30 of the 36 states which are both in the north and south. But it is also now clear that the market is over for these states that must begin to generate their own economic activities. The days of taking begging bowls to Abuja that is neck deep in foreign debts is gradually but surely coming to an end.
This VAT crisis therefore comes with a huge opportunity to address fundamental issues in an economy that is already in dire straits and perfect our skewed federal structure. As I argued in my ‘Platform Nigeria’ presentation with the theme, ‘Is Devolution of Powers the solution to Nigeria’s Problem?’ in May this year (2021), the fiscal imbalance in which the federal government controls disproportionate power and wealth has become a huge problem. The current regime of ‘sharing the national cake’ is also unsustainable. “We should actually be thinking in terms of getting the people to directly fund their government, not gathering to share oil money, and the laziness, lack of accountability and tension associated with it. We should be moving from an extract and share economy to one funded by taxpayers.”
In practical terms, there is value in a centrally collected tax and the current VAT regime has its own merit. We may need to change the name, increase derivation components, reduce the cost of collection by FIRS and allow states to retain 100% taxes on certain items (like alcohol) that some may have issues with. We may also need to tweak the sharing formula such that only a certain percentage will go to the central pool for sharing. But asking each state to keep all the VAT it generates will be difficult to implement under the current circumstance.
If, for instance, the court upholds the current ruling, each state will have to create its own VAT law to plug the hole that the centrally collected and distributed VAT will create in their already troubled finances. Different rates in different states will make it difficult to do business across the country. Things exempted from VAT could also be brought under such law (like food and agricultural products, for states that don’t have other things they can immediately tax.) The implication will be higher prices and inflation. Besides, since most states don’t have the capacity that FIRS has, they may deploy commissioned consultants and motor park touts to do the job of tax collection. We all know that would result in an open invitation to anarchy.
At the end of the day, we have two major problems. One, we have a revenue problem across the board. Without necessarily raising rates or creating new taxes, we need to bring more people into the tax net and be more efficient in collection. Two, we need to spend the accrued revenues more prudently. No point taking taxes from the people and expending such proceeds on frivolities or having some mummy and son fight over millions of Naira after daddy had ‘disappeared’ the dollar component into his Babariga!
ENDNOTE: From the foregoing, it is clear that I saw this problem coming more than three years ago. I also suggested the way forward. “From my reading of the whole situation and given the experience of Lagos on this issue, a political solution appears the surest bet to the VAT imbroglio,” I wrote at the time. “For that to happen, President Muhammadu Buhari must show leadership. He can delegate Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to use the instrumentality of the National Economic Council (NEC) which he chairs to negotiate with the states.”
Not surprisingly, Buhari did nothing. And in dealing with the issue, his successor has compounded the problem. Not only did President Tinubu discard the NEC recommendation to withdraw the bills before the National Assembly to pave the way for more comprehensive consultation with key stakeholders in the country, he also dismissively told the council, headed by Vice President Kashim Shettima and comprising all the 36 governors, to direct their reservations to the National Assembly. That statement was in bad taste.
Considering recent Supreme Court rulings which suggest a stance to uphold the federal nature of our constitution, presidential handlers may feel that the law is on their side on this matter. But that will be a myopic reading of the situation in a country like ours. The Waziri Adio-led Agora Policy, a think tank focused on development and governance, has done extensive work on the tax bills and their implications in practical terms. The main takeaway from their interventions is that there will be losers and winners on the VAT issue, and it will impact revenue in many states. You don’t handle a policy like that the way this administration has gone about it.
For instance, Agora Policy’s disaggregation of the ‘percentage gains and losses on actual and proposed VAT for states for October 2024’, indicates that no fewer than 14 states will suffer revenue deficit with ten of them from the North if the proposed VAT formula scales through with adjustment. But that does not even tell the whole story. Of the 22 states that will ‘gain’, only nine are from the North, and if you remove Kano (42.32%) and Kaduna (35.24%), the accruing benefits for the other northern states are marginal. In fact, my state (Kwara) would gain only 1.16%. Meanwhile, 13 of the 17 Southern states are projected to witness a massive revenue jump with an additional VAT revenue of 86.17% going to Delta, 62.43% to Ogun, 53.58% to Imo and 50.09% to Anambra. Such fundamental changes in fiscal outlook in each of the 36 states (for better or worse) cannot be treated in such a cavalier manner.
When the stakeholders (federal government, 36 states and 774 local governments) gather each month to share the proverbial ‘national cake’ at the meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), the main source used to be from Statutory Revenue: oil and gas plus solid minerals and all other taxes/levies from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and Nigeria Customs Service (NCS). Not anymore. On 24 November when they last met to share accrued revenues for the month of October, for instance, only N206.32 billion came from that source (after sundry deductions, which is another story by itself). Meanwhile, that N206.32 billion from Statutory Revenue is about 15 percent of the net sum shared, raising questions about the management of the Federation Account. In contrast, of the N1.411 trillion shared at FAAC for the month, the VAT component was N622.3 billion!
Like the two policies of the current administration on fuel subsidy and Naira exchange rate, the motivations behind them may have been good but their reckless implementation has negatively impacted the people, to put the situation mildly. The same could happen with the tax bills, which ordinarily are not a bad idea. Because most states rely on money shared at FAAC to fund their budgets, it is no surprise that we now have a political crisis that has divided the country along sectional lines. I continue to urge President Tinubu to dialogue with the governors on this issue. If he bullies his way to get the laws passed by the National Assembly without the buy-in of critical stakeholders across board, the consequences may be too difficult to manage in a fragile country like Nigeria.
Six months ago a friend I go on daily runs with took ill on a Monday evening. It was sudden and by the time I saw him hours later at the hospital, he was lying there very sick, very frail and hooked up to machines.
The diagnosis was sepsis and we were all surprised. The morning before he took ill, we had gone on a 6km run. That was 2km more than our usual but there was a reason. We had gone to a party on Saturday and some “damage” had been done. So that Monday morning we had agreed to run the “foolishness” out of our system.
Sepsis is a major killer in the UK and is described as “a life-threatening condition by The UK Sepsis Trust which says it “can lead to shock, multiple organ failure and even death if not recognised and treated promptly.”
Statistics from the NHS are more sobering. Sepsis“kills five people every hour and accounts for about 50,000 deaths per year in the UK alone.”
So, my friend was lucky to have “listened” to his body and gone to the A&E where he wasprescribed a cocktail of drugs that included powerful antibiotics as well as hydrocortisone, vitamin C, thiamine and lots of intravenous fluids.
That incident came to mind as I read the Keynote Address delivered by Olayemi Cardoso, Governorof the Central Bank of Nigeria at the 59th Annual Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on November 29, 2024.
Nineteen pages long, it was expansive, insightful, comprehensive, wide-ranging, bold and visionary in acknowledging the myriad of issues they met on ground, the challenges encountered so far in fixing them and strategy for the future. It was like a Job Description and a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) rolled into one.
Reading through, the image that loomed before me was of my friend on that hospital bed. When we met in the morning, he was bubbly and rearing to go with none of us the wiser about the bacteria ravaging his system. By evening the bacteria had won and it would have been a different story if doctors had not given him that cocktail of medicines.
The financial system Yemi Cardoso and team met on ground was being ravaged by an unseen bacteria and leading to a system collapse. The prognosis was bad – high inflation, multiple exchange rates, unchecked subsidy and rampant arbitrage, lack of access to international capital markets, poor investor confidence, waning foreign portfolio inflows, declining exchange reserves and decreasing diaspora remittances, a huge FX backlog, excessive money supply growth at 13% annually, fiscal crisis from unprecedented Ways and Means advances to the FG of N22.7 trillion and many more.
Yemi Cardoso was like a doctor who came to the quick realization that urgent action was required to stem the tide and steer the financial ship to a safe port.
What he did, he told the CIBN, was attack with a cocktail of “targeted policies, transparent market operations, effective coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, and a commitment to rebuild trust.”
What did he think success would look like after this cocktail of policies has been implemented? Cardoso told his audience that what the CBNexpects in 2025 and beyond is a regime that will see the CBN “stabilize the exchange rate, curb inflation, strengthen banks’ capital buffers, and foster an environment conducive to the success of both businesses and individuals.”
These are already happening and OlayemiCardoso was not shy in pointing out areas where progress has been made.
External reserves which fell to $33.22bn in December 2023 have grown back to $40bn the highest level in 3 years and “the equivalent of eight months’ import cover.”
That is a reflection of rising investor confidence evident in the 72% growth in foreign portfolio inflows and increase in diaspora remittances from a monthly average of $300m to $600m with a monthly target of $1bn set by the CBN.
This is being buoyed by the integration of the Nigerian diaspora into our financial system by initiatives like the introduction of the non-resident BVN registration. At the time of writingthis piece, news of an oversubscribed Eurobond issue of $2.2bn filtered out from the Debt Management Office (DMO).
The fiscal crisis from excessive Ways and Means which was the equivalent of almost 11% of our GDP in 2023 before Cardoso and team took over at the CBN has been ended with the backlog of over $7 billion in unfulfilled commitments cleared.
The FX market has been stabilized with a tightening contraction in the gap between the official and parallel markets and more sanity is expected with the take-off on December 2, 2024 of the electronic FX matching system. Analysts are already forecasting that the naira will end the year low.
A regime of transparency has led to regular andimproved financial stability reports, balance of payments data, and FX market updates, datasharing, the launch of a new website and technology driven innovations intended to “strengthen the CBN’s credibility and public trust in our policies.”
Speaking at that dinner, Cardoso summarized his ultimate destination as “price and exchange rate stability, catalyze sustainable economic growth, and protect the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians.”
While all these are cause for cheer, challenges remain. The naira is still taking a beating something Cardoso has attributed to buyer’s desperation and a distorted view of the value of the naira relative to the greenback. This will hopefully be solved in 2025 and beyond by “the introduction of the electronic matching system” which “will correct these distortions by enhancing the price discovery process.”
Inflation remains a thorny issue at 33.88% despite efforts to “contain inflation and restore stability” by “raising the Monetary Policy Rate by 875 basis points to 27.5%”. The inflation target of 21.4% is yet to be achieved.
But Cardoso is upbeat: “Our tight monetary policy stance has altered the previous dire trajectory, and we expect a downward trend in 2025. Inflation remains unacceptably high, but the signs are encouraging, particularly given that the full effects of monetary policy typically take 6-9 months to impact the consumer sector.”
To conclude one must ask whether Cardoso and his team have factored in the coming of Donald Trump into their plans for 2025. As Cardoso noted in his keynote, the pandemic, global geopolitical tensions and inflation have had a deleterious effect on emerging markets in the form of “withdrawal of capital flows” thus “creating new challenges for economies like ours.”
Speaking further he noted that “Major central banks are gradually easing their monetary conditions and this shift is slowly reopening access to international capital markets for emerging economies.”
But for how long? Recent comments from Donald Trump in reaction to plans for de–dollarisation by the BRICS nations deserve attention from the CBN as the apex bank looks to the future.
This is important because in October this year, Nigeria formalized its romance with the BRICS bloc by becoming a partner as reported by The Punch. “BRICS has officially expanded its alliance, adding 13 new nations as partner countries, though not as full members…The countries are Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.”
High on the agenda of the BRICS nations and their partners is to establish “a unified currency or bolster bilateral trade agreements that bypass the dollar. These efforts aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollars…” reports Global Financial Digest
Trump has reacted to this by threatening 100% tariffs on imports from the BRICS nations. As President, Donald Trump’s plans to entrench his America First doctrine and the dollar’s hegemony will hobble plans for de-dollarisation of economies in the BRIC bloc as well as the emerging markets of the global south which remain vulnerable to tectonic shifts in the larger global economy.
This is something that could have repercussions for the Nigerian economy described by Cardoso as a “resource-intensive” country.
Kan is a PR/crisis management expert and financial analyst.
[PRESS RELEASE] Tax Reform: Obi insists on Transparency and says the focus should not only be on the Government as sole beneficiary
AdminThe leader of the Labour Party and the 2023 Presidential Candidate, Peter Obi has called for transparency in the proposed tax reform of the federal Government.
Obi, writing on X handle on Monday, said that carrying out tax reform is not bad but must be done carrying the populace along and should not be done with the government as the sole beneficiary.
'Tax reform is a critical issue, and there is nothing wrong with pursuing it. However, such reforms must be subject to robust public debate.
"A public hearing on tax reform is essential, allowing Nigerians from all walks of life to engage meaningfully. This is how we build public trust and ensure inclusivity in policymaking.
"Matters of this magnitude require extensive deliberation and careful consideration—they should never be rushed. Public hearings must be conducted to allow for diverse opinions and inputs.
"When considering tax reforms and similar issues, it is insufficient to focus solely on the benefits to the government, particularly in terms of increasing revenue collection. We must also take into account the overall impact on the nation and the sustainability of all its regions.
"Furthermore, the government must sensitize the people and secure their buy-in for any policy changes. Trust and legitimacy are the foundation of effective governance, and without them, even the best-intended reforms may fail.
"Let us prioritize transparency, deliberation, and public engagement in charting the path forward. This is how we build a truly participatory democracy.
A new Nigeria is possible!
Ibrahim Umar
POMR SPOKESMAN