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[OPINION] Thoughts on the Opposition - Dakuku Peterside
Like other liberal democracies, Nigeria’s democratic system thrives on the existence of a vibrant and functional opposition. However, the current state of our political parties, as I discussed in a recent television appearance, is concerning. One of the key parameters to measure the efficacy of a political party is its organisational capacity and policy choices. Unfortunately, these elements are acutely lacking both in the ruling party and the opposition. Today, this column addresses the opposition’s role in deepening democracy.
An effective opposition serves as a watchdog, providing checks and balances to the ruling party while offering alternative policies that enhance governance. However, in the nearly two years since the 2023 general elections, Nigeria’s opposition has been largely dormant, fragmented, and ineffective. This situation demands immediate attention and action.
The absence of a strong opposition has left Nigeria’s democracy vulnerable to unchecked executive power, resulting in governance that often lacks accountability. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has faced minimal resistance in executing its policies, which has, in turn, weakened democratic engagement. The lack of credible opposition has led to a decline in democratic norms and a slide to “electoral autocracy.” This is neither inthe best interest of democratic consolidation nor the Nigerian people.
In contrast, in other African democracies, such as South Africa, the opposition has played a more significant role in holding the ruling party accountable. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) continuously challenge the African National Congress (ANC), demonstrating the impact of a functional opposition. The Nigerian opposition must regain footing to ensure a balanced and competitive political landscape. A diverse political landscape is not just a luxury; it’s a necessity for a healthy democracy. The potential for change is within reach, and it’s up to the opposition to make it a reality.
Opposition parties have failed to articulate distinct policy alternatives, leaving governance unchallenged and unresponsive to citizens’ needs. Without meaningful policy debates, decisions are made that lack depth, often without proper scrutiny or public engagement. For example, when President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in 2023, opposition parties failed to present an alternative plan, leaving civil society groups to lead protests against the consequential economic hardship.
The opposition space in Nigeria has remained fractured, allowing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to operate with little or no alternative voices and cruising as the political Octopus. APC has effectively established itself as the dominant political force, often unchallenged in policymaking and governance. The failure of opposition parties to unite under a common goal has further entrenched APC’s political control, making governance almost a one-party affair.
One of the most frequently cited reasons for the opposition’s weakness is Nigeria’s patronage-based political culture, often referred to as ‘stomach infrastructure.’ This term encapsulates the tendency of politicians to prioritise personal gain and short-term benefits over long-term policy engagement. In such an environment, voters are more likely to support politicians who provide immediate material rewards rather than those advocating for institutional reforms. This system disproportionately favours the ruling party, which controls state resources and uses them to maintain loyalty. A 2022 survey by Afrobarometer revealed that over 40% of Nigerian voters admitted to receiving financial or material incentives from politicians before elections, underscoring the deep entrenchment of patronage politics. This trend is evident in many states, where political parties rely heavily on financial inducements to secure electoral victories.
The PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant political force, has suffered from internal divisions, sabotage and ineffective leadership. Under Umar Damagum’suninspiring leadership, the party has become factionalised, with many state chapters experiencing disunity. Instead of acting as a formidable opposition, the PDP appears to be an extension of the ruling party, unable to mobilise effectively against APC’s policies. Defections by key PDP figures to the ruling party have further weakened its national standing and influence.
LP and NNPP, which emerged as alternative forces in the 2023 elections, are embroiled in leadership crises. The Labour Party, which garnered significant support from young and urban voters, struggles with internal disputes, legal battles, and power struggles. Similarly, NNPP faces significant internal crises at the national and Kano state levels. The absence of institutional structures and the prevalence of patronage politics have weakened these parties, making them ineffective in consolidating opposition forces.
There is widespread suspicion that APC uses state resources to co-opt opposition leaders through inducements or coercion. Some opposition figures are believed to have been compromised, leading to a lack of trust in the opposition’s leadership. When opposition leaders are seen as moles or agents of the party in power, it undermines their ability to present a serious challenge to the ruling party.
The National Assembly, which should serve as an oversight body, has become a “rubber stamp” for the Executive. Opposition lawmakers have failed to challenge government policies effectively, allowing even the most controversial bills to pass without robust debate. The gale of opposition lawmakers’ defections to the ruling party has further exposed our opportunistic politics.
Additionally, the APC-controlled National Assembly drowned out any form of alternative voices. This has further entrenched the APC’s dominance, as policies are implemented without meaningful alternative options. In 2024, the National Assembly passed multiple overlapping supplementary budgets with minimal scrutiny, raising concerns about the legislature’s independence.
Despite the current dormancy, there are emerging signs of opposition figures regrouping. Recent socio-political gatherings have brought together opposition leaders and dissenting voices within the APC who share common criticisms of President Bola Tinubu’s neoliberal policies. One of such events was the two day national conference on strengthening democracy organised by Centre-LSD and other civil society organizations. These events indicate the potential for new alliances ahead of future elections. If effectively mobilised, this could begin a stronger, more unified opposition movement, which would be good for democratic consolidation. For example, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s Peter Obi have recently been seen attending similar political events, sparking speculation about a possible alliance for the 2027 elections. The recent meeting between Kwankwaso and Aregbesola has been argued as being unsettling to the ruling party.
PDP seems to be bending the corner in its perennial internal conflicts. The parties BOT and the governor’s forum have jointly taken a stance on the crisis of who the National secretary is. They are working hard to resolve the many cases in court and gain the public’s confidence as a serious party, but whether this will succeed is another matter. The Labour Party, the country’s second leg of strong opposition, faces a significant internal crisis. Abure-led Executive and the party’s galvanising forces led by the party’s personality emblem, Peter Obi, are on different lanes. There is no love lost between all key actors in the party. Today, the Labour Party is a shadow of its 2023 form that rattled the ruling party.
For the opposition to be taken seriously, it must bring together reform-minded elements from the PDP, progressive factions of the Labour Party and NNPP, and disillusioned APC members. This coalition should not be built on personal ambition but on a shared vision and clear ideological principles that differentiate it from APC.
Beyond mere criticism of the ruling party, the opposition must invest in policy research and articulate superior governance strategies. Highlighting the failures of APC is not enough; opposition leaders must provide viable alternatives that resonate with the electorate. This requires intellectual rigour and extensive economic, security, and governance engagement. A 2023 report by SBM Intelligence indicated that 70% of Nigerians believe that opposition parties fail to present clear economic policies, reinforcing the need for a well-articulated alternative governance strategy.
Additionally, smaller parties, which currently lack the national reach to be impactful, must be incorporated into a broader opposition framework. Although these small parties represent distinctive voices and ideologies, they must align under a bigger opposition ideology that will be sold to the people to challenge the ruling party at the centre. That is the only way they can make a meaningful impact on politics at the centre.
A successful opposition must go beyond elite politics and engage directly with the grassroots. Without a strong grassroots presence, any opposition movement will struggle to gain widespread legitimacy and support.
The opposition’s survival and relevance in Nigeria depend on unity, strategic policymaking, and grassroots engagement. A fragmented and ineffective opposition only strengthens APC’s dominance, undermining democratic accountability. However, the signs of reawakening provide hope that a more vigorous opposition could emerge in the coming years. For this to materialise, opposition leaders must prioritise coalition-building, develop apparent policy alternatives, and engage in extensive grassroots mobilisation. Only through these efforts can Nigeria’s democracy be revitalised, ensuring a governance system that is responsive to the needs of its people.
[OPINION] El-Rufai, Obasa and other godfather stories - Lasisi Olagunju
It happened one sunny day in mid-May 2003. I was preparing to go to the office around noon when Tayo, the editor’s secretary, called me. “Mr Olagunju, don’t come to the office, Baba Adedibu is here looking for you. He came with his boys.” There were no two birds bearing ‘hawk’ in the skies of Ibadan at that time. Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu was the strongman of Ibadan politics. He earned that appellation in practical terms on the field of battle. Adedibu was death that thundered before killing; he was lightning that shrieked before striking. Alhaji Adedibu was the buyer who entered the market, bought all and paid for none. Before him, there was none so hard; after him, there has been none so dreaded.
What did I buy on credit from Alhaji Adedibu’s tray? If you offended him and he wanted you, you would surrender to him or find yourself in his presence. That was the man who came looking for me. He had enough big, street boys who made things happen for him and they were with him on that visit. I quickly checked the gate to my house and the door to my flat. I did a mind check of my recent activities. There was nothing that should make me a candidate for Adedibu’s trouble.
Tayo’s voice on the phone brought me back. “Baba said there is a report against him in the paper today and that you wrote it. He said someone in Tribune hinted to him that any story published without the author’s name was written by you, the news editor.” I laughed at that conclusion. I remembered that report. ‘Adedibu demands 12 out of 14 commissioner slots.’ The headline was something like that. I didn’t write the story. A colleague did. But I passed the story for publication because the source was very credible. The godfather didn’t like the report. He was livid at the audacity of the writer, and possibly wanted to use his visit to get a hint on who spilt the beans.
Chief Adedibu came fully prepared for me, the supposed writer of the story. He was adequately briefed on when I would arrive at the office. But he didn’t meet me. He couldn’t have met me. My masquerade did not put on its costume in the city centre and so would not suffer Adedibu’s rending effect. Eégún t’ó bá tì’gboro se l’aso won máa nya. Before that moment, I had spent all my years in Ibadan avoiding having anything to do with the old man. As a reporter, I always had excuses for not going for official duties at his popular palace at Molete, a place noted for anything and everything. Yet, Alaafin Molete’s palace was just five minutes’ drive from Tribune House and of the same distance to where I lived.
The story we published was correct. Adedibu, Ibadan’s kingmaker, wanted more than enough from the governor he made just three weeks earlier. The godfather wanted to govern the new governor and run the coming government from his home. Adedibu’s godson, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, who had just won the governorship had not even been sworn in when Chief made that demand. Fortunately, both were Ibadan – very heady, crafty and stubborn – and so were a perfect match for each other in the unfolding war. Godfather wanted everything as fruits of his labour; godson thought he could be independent of the kingmaker. The result was that they fought. If Ruth Watson’s ‘Civil Disorder is the Disease of Ibadan’ was acted as a drama, one of the two would be the hero, the other the anti-hero. Ibadan had them and felt them. Limbs were broken; heads got cracked; there were accidents at home and on the road; lives got lost; tenure got truncated. The rest is history.
Four years earlier in Maiduguri, a similar incident had opened the floor for godfathers to drag godsons. Governorship elections were held across Nigeria on Saturday, 9 January, 1999. For Borno State, Mallam Mala Kachalla of the All Peoples Party (APP) won the seat with 388,058 votes. His opponent, Baba Ahmad Jidda of the PDP polled 348,800 votes. The victor and his followers started preparing for the swearing-in ceremony scheduled for May 29, 1999. But, amid all the preparations, the state’s outgoing military administrator felt a storm gathering. He got a troubling intelligence report in March that there were plans to impeach the man who had not even taken the oath of office. It was funny; it was not funny. But it was true.
Ali Modu Sheriff, born 1956, was Kachalla’s godfather. Kachalla was born in 1941, 15 years before his godfather was born. Before the election, Ali Modu Sheriff called Kachalla ‘Baba’. He was his father’s friend. During the election, there was a reversal of role; Kachalla worshipped the 43-year-old Sheriff. It is never by age, it is a matter of cash and Ali Modu Sheriff had it and gave plenty of it in service of Kachalla’s ambition. Godson won. Godfather wanted returns from his investment; he allegedly drew a list of cabinet members for the governor-elect. Godson reportedly said no; he picked some and dropped some. He flapped his wings and thought he could fly independent of the godfather who bought him the throne. He paid dearly for it. There was turbulence. His plane fatally suffered loss of altitude. Sheriff had his boys; Kachalla countered with his own boys. But if iron hits iron, one will bow to the other. Kachalla’s iron got bent and broken; the earth quaked. The next election, power changed hands, kingmaker made himself king. Godson lost everything. Life continued.
The godfather is the consummate ego tripper. Phillip Athans, author of ‘Devils of the Endless Deep’, describes the godfather as the “invader” who is determined “to be in charge of something, from the entire universe down to some back alley in the thieves quarter of the city.” The characterization is right. Even when they know that no king wants to share his throne, they still make a dash for power and the palace. Take Olusegun Obasanjo as an example. He was made president by some people in 1999; some people picked the bills. He became president and announced that if anyone thought his presidency was an investment, they had lost that investment. And for eight years, he did exactly as he promised. The same Obasanjo picked his successors in 2007 and 2011. Did he let them be? He wrote in his ‘My Watch’ (Volume 3, page 3): “I have learned from the Yoruba adage that ‘the kingmaker who does not hide his head after the installation of the king will be the first victim of the king’s wrath.” Now, did Obasanjo “hide his head after the installation of the king” as preached by him? He didn’t. The result is the long list of complaints we read in most of the pages of his three-piece memoir. It is the nature of power. The godfather is the kingmaker. He is never satisfied with half measures. The reason they are endangered and in perpetual state of war. It is the reason those very deep in Yoruba power-play say that the kingmaker’s blood provides the canvas for the king’s coronation dance (eni bá fi wón j’oyè, èjè rè ni wón máa ntè wo’lé). I heard that from my late father.
Nasir el-Rufai is fighting two wars at the same time. He is fighting the power caucus in Abuja and fighting local with Governor Uba Sani, his protégé in Kaduna. He tried to link the two fronts in a social media post last week. El-Rufai is angry because he lost his investment in Governor Sani to a more wily partner who has chased him out of a profitable partnership in Abuja. He spanked his governor for his undisguised support for President Bola Tinubu: “Every day I see this governor embarrassingly and sycophantically rambling, I used to wonder why? However, confirming that Federal Government ‘reimbursements, interventions, and grants’ in excess of N150 billion have been given selectively to Kaduna by Tinubu in the last 18 months now explains everything. By all means, defend Asiwaju for the conditional cash transfer. Asiwaju has earned it, coming from you. The people of Kaduna State will judge at the right time and place. Have a nice day,” the former governor wrote on X.
El-Rufai is (or was) godfather in Kaduna; he thinks he deserves that title too in Abuja – he, after all, led northern governors’ 2023 rebellion against Buhari’s from-north-to-north succession agenda. He thinks the revolt provided the wings for Tinubu’s eagle to fly into the northern space and into power. Truly, Bola Tinubu’s 2023 victory dress was sewn by a large confederation of provincial godfathers. El-Rufai was just one of them. Now, he, like many of the kingmakers, is down, locked out of the luxurious palace since May 2023. His lockout will be two years in May this year. He is very hurt and very angry. And justifiably so. If you eat gbì, you must be ready to die gbì. Watch him. He won’t stop until he is done. He has just started.
Follow closely the Mudasiru Obasa saga in Lagos. It is a tragedy that closes and unfolds like abracadabra. Some agents are said to have usurped the powers of the principal. They crossed the red line and are digging in. It is the digging in that intrigues me. Does it mean the palace eunuchs have grown balls, and boys have become men? Whatever answer that question attracts, I see this matter having very profound implications for politics at the national level. I see slithering snakes waltzing into the yawning walls of Lagos.
The noise over Lagos’ speakership today is because a pride of cats thought they could barbecue Mr Jones’ bull in the Animal Farm and get away with it. Imperial Lagos is a mafiadom. There are rules governing every mafia’s operations. The bojúbojú removal drama of Obasa as Lagos speaker resembles more an operation by the Mafia of Sicily. Norman Silverstein says in ‘The Godfather- A Year After’ (1974) that “What makes the Mafia frightening is its creeping secrecy, its being a closed society, its weapon (of) secret terror – defending and offending.” That reads like Lagos’ conclave. It is an elaborate structure that diminishes the intelligence of those who contrived democracy as the best form of government. What next for Lagos? Read Orwell’s 1984: “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.”
The godfather may also have a godfather to whom he does not say no. The senior godfather may not necessarily be a politician. He may be the king’s son, his brother or, more insidiously, his marabout, babalawo, pastor or Imam. In the south, pastors and Alfas call the shots; in the north, the clerics hold the yam and the knife.
Now, how did we arrive here? A northern Nigerian story gives some insights:
Northern region’s first and only premier, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, had this young Islamic scholar called Sheikh Abubakar Gumi. Sheikh Gumi was the father of the Sheikh Ahmad Abubakar Gumi that you are very conversant with today. The older Sheikh Gumi, who died in September 1992, did humanity a lot of good by documenting his everything in an autobiography. ‘Where I stand’ is the title he gave that book of enlightenment, and I wish we all read it to understand how the Nigerian rain started and why it is still pouring.
The Sardauna loved Gumi, his brilliance and his ways and took him as his son. Godfather confided in godson on almost all matters. One day, the two had a deep discussion that changed radically the course of the Sardauna’s political career and the direction of (Northern) Nigeria’s politics.
“I was with the Premier in his house one day when he began to lament to me openly about the money he spent in the course of his political campaigns,” Gumi writes on page 101 of his ‘Where I stand’. He writes that the Sardauna lamented further that “he had spent whatever personal money he had almost to the point of bankruptcy.” The premier was disappointed in some of his lieutenants who were not as committed as he was to their joint political journey. And what was Gumi’s response? I quote Gumi in the book:
“But if it costs you personally and the party so much, why don’t you do something that would make you more popular, not only with the people but also with God?” I suggested to him.
“What could that be?” he asked.
“You see”, I explained, “if you spent, say, ten percent of the money you now lose to politics to promote the religion, it would earn you more supporters. This is beside the fact that it would be more directly in the service of God.” Gumi said the Sardauna “listened carefully and I explained to him further.” Gumi did not state what his further explanation was but he believed that was the point the Sardauna began to “pay more attention to Islamic matters”, courting local Imams for his politics, and giving “them some money, whenever he went out on campaign visits” (page 102). Mighty oaks from little acorns grow. From that point, Gumi became the guide, the godfather showing the leader the way.
Today, religious leaders play godfathers to the godfather. Behind the crisis in Kaduna and Lagos are some prophecies and predictions about 2027. The clerics are the prophets. They are the gods to appease if there will be peace.
‘I’ll Negotiate With Bandits Only If…’ – Zamfara Gov
Zamfara State governor, Dauda Lawal55, has said he would negotiate with bandits only if they stop killing people and surrender their arms.
Earlier, the governor had maintained a firm stance against reconciling with bandits.
In July 2024, Alhaji Faruk Ahmad, the Senior Special Assistant to the governor on Media and Mobilisation, declared that no internal or external pressure would force the administration to negotiate with bandits.
Noting that the measures taken by the government were yielding positive results, Ahmad reaffirmed that the administration would not reconcile with any bandit leader but would continue to fight them.
“I am confident that, gradually, God Almighty will vindicate the present administration. I want to reaffirm our position: we will not reconcile with any bandit leader. We will continue fighting them. Those willing to surrender should do so, and those who are not will be fought.” he had said.
But speaking in an interview with BBC Hausa service, Governor Lawal said dialogue with bandits was not entirely off the government’s table.
He, however, emphasised that any talks must be anchored on truth and honesty.
He said, “A number of people have been harmed, others have lost their parents and wives. Therefore, it is important to take into account their plight and mull over how to come to their aid, considering the losses they recorded, rather than always solely focusing on the bandits.”
He disclosed that the government is recording success in the fight against the bandits.
“More than 50 terrorists have been killed on Friday in Tungar Fulani, a the my ylong Zurmi/Shinkafi axis.”
Other bandits’ kingpins loyal to Bello Turji have also been eliminated, including Sani Mainasara, Sani Black, Kachallah Auta, Audu Gajere, Kabiru Jangero, Dangajere, among the 65others I. They have all been killed.”
He maintained that the momentum would continue to be sustained until banditry is tamed, adding, “they should either lay down their weapons or we continue with our decisive action against them.”
[DailyTrust]
Dubai court slams Nigerian billionaire jail term over financial crime
A Dubai court has slammed a Nigerian billionaire, owner of Rahmaniya Filling Station, Ultimate Oil and Gas, Abdulrahman Bashar, with a one-year jail term over financial crime, according to a report.
Premium Times reports that Bashar bagged the jail term due to financial crime involving his dealings with CI Energy Company.
According to documents, the UAE court gave the verdict on 30 January 2025.
The sentence document showed the UAE charged the businessman for issuing seven cheques with a combined value of 126.45 million dirhams, drawn on an Emirates Islamic Bank account with a mismatch in his signature.
The prosecution accused the Nigerian billionaire, Bashar, of issuing the checks by “deliberately signing and drafting them in a way that prevents their cashing,” consequently asking that Mr. Bashar be punished under extant laws.
The court, relying on evidence presented to it, including statements by Jamal Awad Nasser Hussein (the agent of CI Energy), duplicates of the cheques, and statements of account, noted that the cheques were returned unpaid on presentation at Emirates Islamic Bank because of disparity in Mr. Bashar’s signature.
“It is established that the crime of issuing a cheque is realised merely by giving the cheque to the beneficiary knowing that there is no balance available for withdrawal,” the court said during the proceeding led by Judge Hussein Hamdi.
Unfortunately, the Dubai sentence is the second time in five years Bashar has been punished for a crime abroad.
Recall that Justice Butcher of the England and Wales High Court, in a verdict issued in February 2020, sentenced Mr. Bashar to a jail term of ten months for flouting several orders of the court in a case initiated by Sahara Energy Resources.
The basis of the sentence was that Mr. Bashir had committed continuing breaches of the order of Mr. Justice Robin Knowles of 1 August 2019 and of the order of Mr. Justice Bryan of 6 September 2019,” Justice Butcher said.
Consequently, Rahmaniya was fined £500,000, while Adebowale Aderemi, the manager of the company, was asked to pay a penalty of £10,000.
Meanwhile, Bashar and his company have remained silent over the latest jail term.
[DailyPost]
Conservative voters doubt Kemi Badenoch’s suitability as UK PM – Poll
A YouGov poll has revealed that a majority of Conservative voters are uncertain about Kemi Badenoch’s suitability as prime minister, casting doubt on her leadership prospects as she approaches 100 days as party leader.
According to the survey, while 48 percent of 2024 Conservative voters view Badenoch as a potential prime minister, only 26 percent believe she would perform well in the role. Among the general electorate, just 14 percent think she has what it takes to lead the country.
Badenoch, known for her tough stance on immigration, faces scepticism from opposition voters.
The poll found that 39 percent of respondents from Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Reform UK supporters view her as untrustworthy while only 19 percent consider her trustworthy.
Additionally, 39 percent described her as unlikeable, compared to 24 percent who view her favourably.
Despite these mixed perceptions, she retains some support among Conservative voters.
The poll indicated that 56 percent of the party’s base approve of her leadership, while 17 percent rate her performance negatively.
The survey results come amid growing challenges for the Conservative Party, with another poll placing it third behind Labour and Reform UK in voter preference.
Born in the UK to Nigerian parents, Badenoch has championed stricter immigration measures, recently proposing that immigrants must reside in the UK for at least 15 years before becoming eligible for a British passport.
“Britain is our home, it’s not a hotel,” Badenoch asserted. “It’s time to tell the truth on immigration and propose real plans. I want to reduce immigration and make living here actually mean something. I’m announcing that the Conservative Party is going to do things differently,” she stated.
[TheNation]
S’Court dismisses Fubara’s appeal against Amaewhule-led Rivers assembly
An appeal filed by Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, challenging the leadership of the Rivers State House of Assembly has been dismissed by the Supreme Court in Abuja.
Fubara was also ordered to pay two million naira to the Assembly and Amaewhule by a five-member panel led by Justice Uwani Abba-Aji on Monday.
The case was dismissed after Fubara’s lawyer, Yusuf Ali, withdrew the suit.
Details later…
[Punch]
Ecuador faces second election run-off after president, opposition close tie
Incumbent President, Daniel Noboa, on Monday clutched onto a razor-thin lead in violence-hit Ecuador’s election, after a stronger-than-expected leftist challenger looked set to force a second-round run-off.
With more than 90 percent of the ballots counted, Noboa had 44.3 percent and rival Luisa Gonzalez 43.8 percent, official results showed.
Gonzalez, a 47-year-old lawyer and single mother of two, told elated supporters in Quito that they had achieved a “great victory” by forcing what she called a “statistical tie”.
“We have won,” she said.
The telegenic lawmaker had trailed heavily in pre-election surveys.
Some exit polls had even predicted that Noboa would garner the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a head-to-head contest in April.
But the election was seen by many as a referendum on the country’s stalled economy and on Noboa’s hardline security response in the face of record rates of murder, kidnapping and extortion.
In just a few years, cartels vying for control of Pacific ports and lucrative cocaine trading routes to Europe and Asia have transformed Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world to one of the most dangerous.
During his 15 months in office Noboa has declared a state of emergency, deployed the army to the streets and gathered extraordinary executive powers to curb cartel violence.
He deployed heavily armed soldiers to polling stations across the country on election day, and the land borders with Colombia and Peru were closed.
Both Noboa and Gonzalez were shadowed at public events by a phalanx of special forces, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2023 election, when a leading candidate was assassinated.
“We’re only human. Of course, you feel afraid,” candidate Gonzalez told AFP from her childhood home on the eve of the vote.
But this time round the only election-related incidents were about 20 people cited for breaking a strict three-day alcohol ban.
More than ten million votes have been counted so far, but it could be some hours before the full tally is known.
Still, Noboa’s supporters were in a jubilant mood, lighting fireworks in Quito and Guayaquil, the country’s two largest cities.
“We came to support the president, we want him to support us and change the country,” said 52-year-old secretary Myriam Medrano on the streets of the capital.
Gonzalez’s political mentor — polarizing exiled ex-president Rafael Correa — was also bullish about the prospects of victory.
“We are going to PASS Noboa,” he said in a social media post.
‘A bigger challenge’
At 37, Noboa is one of the world’s youngest leaders.
He has bet his political fortunes on a slick social media campaign that underscores his youth and vigour and a hardline approach to tackling crime.
On the eve of the vote, he posted a video of himself in a crisp white T-shirt and sneakers, strumming an acoustic guitar and crooning along in English — a striking contrast to his “mano dura,” or iron fist, security policies.
Human rights groups believe the aggressive use of the armed forces has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were recently found near an army base.
“Ecuador is in a very difficult moment, I think in the worst crisis since we returned to democracy,” said Leonardo Laso, a political analyst, referring to a period of deep crisis almost half a century ago.
‘Dark outlook’
The unrest has scared away tourists and investors alike, hitting an economy that likely entered a recession last year.
Noboa has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund to build a $4 billion fiscal war chest.
Easing fears that she may scrap that deal if elected, Gonzalez on Saturday told AFP that the IMF was “welcome” to help, so long as it does not insist on policies that hit working families.
Ecuador is also girding for the return of thousands of migrants who are expected to be deported by the administration of US President Donald Trump — meaning a drop in remittances, which total about $6 billion a year.
Gonzalez told AFP she wanted “appropriate” relations with Trump, while claiming Ecuador under Noboa “did not defend its citizens” against US mistreatment.
“I will always demand respect for our citizens. They cannot deport our brothers as if they were criminals, with chains on their legs and arms,” she said.
AFP
[OPINION] The Politics of Portable - Owei Lakemfa
Portable is the stage name of Street-Hop rapper, Habeb Okikiola Badmus. He is crass in appearance and, ill-mannered with apparent gaps in thought. Exhibiting outlandish behaviour, he divides his hair into parts each with a loud colour that gives the appearance of a cockerel head.
The tattooed Portable who styles himself as the leader of the Zen Movement, is known for street fights, encounters with the police and failure to pay debts. Uncouth, full of antics and disrespectful to people, especially women, Portable’s philosophy revolves around money.
When I reflected on the disposition of various politicians in the country to either exhibit uncritical loyalty to President Bola Tinubu or build an anti-Tinubu coalition to defeat him in the 2027 elections, I concluded that they are engaged in the dog- eat- dog politics of Portable. Giving no regard either for the Nigerian people nor their future, many of our politicians either feel comfortable in the the Tinubu pool where they are being fed, or behave like orphans. For the latter group, their profession is politics and they live off government. Once out of power, they become quite desperate and would do whatever is necessary to get back to power and continue their parasitic existence.
The two wings of the political gladiators have the same programmes. They both agree and, are committed to fuel subsidy removal which has crippled the economy and imposed hyper-inflation on the country to the extent that there are Nigerians fighting to share food from the dustbin. On the issue of fuel subsidy, the basic difference between the two groups of politicians is in the style of implementation not in the policy itself. Similarly, they are adherents of the uncritical economics of Naira devaluation that has witnessed its water boarding since the pretentious and unfeeling Buhari administration.
They are also united in the continued imposition of unproductive and unprofessional electricity generation and distribution companies on the country. When the fraudulent ‘privatisation’ of the electricity sector was carried out in September 2013, there was a clause that this can be reviewed after five years. This is a dozen years later, no review nor reversal of that programme has been carried out. No major politician has campaigned for such review not to talk about sanctions. Neither those in power nor their allies who are temporarily out of power has insisted that government utilizes its 40 per cent shares in the privatised electricity companies to reform the sector. None has carried out sustained protests against the frequent and continuous electricity tariff increases. How can the mainstream politicians, whether in or out of government, claim they care for the people, when they do not even raise a voice for them?
If they claim their silence and complicity is because they believe in so-called market forces, they should tell us where such forces sanction fraud and unproductivity. The United States, US, is the biggest, strongest and most imperial capitalist country in the world. Yet, it occasionally reverses itself when the existence of the country is at stake. For instance, California privatised its electricity sector. But when it started turning out like the Nigerian experience, it revoked the sale and took back the electricity sector. Even in the face of the US running an America First policy which places the country’s interests above everything else, including the imaginary market forces, the Nigerian government and mainstream politicians remain committed to them. They remain faithful servants of the American and European international institutions like the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, alias World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and the contraption called World Trade Organisation, WTO.
Is it that the Nigerian Government and opposition politicians are ignorant of the fact that the Uruguay Round of Talks, which was rechristened WTO, is a mere instrument to subvert open and equal trade amongst all nations as promoted by the United Nations? Do they claim not to know that the world body for free and equitable trade is the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD? Perhaps, the main challenge we face is that after decades of being subjected to mass illiteracy, uncritical education, religious, ethnic and regional manipulations, Nigerians see themselves as helpless. They have come to accept their state and, when pushed to the wall, rather than fight back, they allow themselves to be pushed through the wall. We have allowed ourselves to be so intimidated as to accept that criticism of officials or, even private citizens, amounts to cyber stalking which leads to prison.
On further reflection, perhaps our nationalists who fought for independence were too focused on the politics of getting the enslaving colonialists out of the country than examining the essence of the political independence they secured. So, the populace got an independence flag, a national anthem, and a neo-colonial political class without a deep thought for real power. Hence, the country has degenerated from a productive, and import- substitution economy to a wholly consumer nation with a parasitic political leadership. Gone are most of the factories. The old warehouses have become religious centres and we are no longer our neighbour’s keeper. Criminality festers as does insecurity. Even Generals with armed guards and, politicians led by columns of armed policemen, are no longer safe.
Corruption has become so endemic that when $52.8 million looted funds were returned by the United States, the ownership could not be identified, at least publicly. A vast estate in Abuja measuring 150,500 square metres containing 753 units of duplexes and other apartments was forfeited to the Federal Government with the identity of the owner(s) concealed. On February 5, 2025 the Chairman of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, Musa Aliyu, revealed that government made full payment five times for an hospital that was never built. Not surprisingly, the identities of the criminals remain concealed.
As citizens, we cannot even make constitutional demands such as getting whosoever or whichever group in power to meet the basic constitutional requirements of guaranteeing the welfare and security of the citizenry. As a people, we have failed to make the Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy as enshrined in the second chapter of our Constitution justiciable.
As Nigerians, we should not just fold our hands and wait for whoever is elected in 2027. If we do, it will be illogical to expect a change in our circumstances or a better country for our children.
The least we should do is agree on broad demands, or a Charter of Demands which all politicians, irrespective of colouration, must accept and implement. After all, the Constitution states clearly that sovereignty belongs to the Nigerian people from whom all power flows. We must not allow the lumpen politics of Portable to persist.
Atiku, Tambuwal, Imoke in closed-door meeting with Obasanjo in Abeokuta
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is currently in a closed-door meeting with his former boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital.
Atiku, who arrived Obasanjo’s residence, located on the premises of the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library (OOPL) at exactly 12: 37p.m., was accompanied by the former governors of Sokoto and Cross Rivers State, Senator Aminu Tambuwa and Senator Liyel Imoke among other eminent political stalwarts from the northern region.
Upon arrival, Atiku alongside members of his entourage were received at the Obasanjo’s residence by the elder statesman, Oyewole Fasawe, before they all went straight into a private meeting with Obasanjo who had been waiting for his visitors.
Details of the visit could not be ascertained at the time of filing this report.
Details later……
[Vanguard]
[OPINION] Soludo’s Security Initiative And Obiora Okonkwo’s Senseless Criticism - Sheddy Ozoene
The recent abduction and subsequent murder of Hon. Justice Azuka, a member of the Anambra State House of Assembly representing Onitsha North Constituency I, has cast a somber shadow over Anambra State. Azuka was kidnapped at gunpoint on December 24, 2024, along Ugwunaobankpa Road in Onitsha. After several agonizing weeks for his family and friends, his decomposing body was discovered near the Second Niger Bridge on February 6, 2025. It is the second of such gruesome killings involving members of the State’s House of Assembly, as Hon. Okechukwu Okoye from Aguata constituency was murdered under similar circumstances in 2022.
Those heinous acts are not isolated incidents in Anambra State which has in recent time gained a disturbing notoriety as the South East’s bastion of crime and criminality.
Once celebrated for its rich cultural heritage and economic vitality, Anambra State now grapples with a pervasive sense of violence, marked by kidnappings, assassinations, and general lawlessness. Like in the earlier days of Boko Haram in Nigeria’s North East, a large swath of the state, especially around Ihiala local government area, has been under the control of criminals and residents of communities like Okija, Azia, Lilu and and many others in the area were so terrorised that they relocated outside their homelands. Several months thereafter, most of them have still not returned.
It is in this light that the state government’s decision to launch an initiative to arrest the ugly trend, must be appreciated.
Governor Chukwuma Soludo, who has faced widespread blame for his seemingly ineffective handling of the situation since his assumption of office, last month came up with a detailed response. The government enacted the Anambra Homeland Security Law 2025 and introduced “Operation Udo Ga-Achi”, an initiative that aims to enhance community involvement in security and social re-engineering. As a specialized intervention force designed to complement regular policing efforts, its objectives include improving intelligence gathering, incentivizing whistleblowers, facilitating rapid response in order to swiftly eliminate criminal elements across the State.

Soludo
The government’s elaborate plan includes operating a command-and-control center that would integrate voice, video, and data for security management, and deployment of AI-powered surveillance cameras to cover communities throughout the state. It is also equipping the security personnel with advanced tools such as a state-of-the-art tracking system and walkie-talkies for real-time communication.
While many people in the state believe “Operation Udo Ga-Achi” signifies a robust commitment by the state government to restore peace and security and to foster a safer environment for residents and businesses, Prof. Obiora Okonkwo, a gubernatorial aspirant under the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Anambra State, has been vocal in his criticism of the initiative. In several statements credited to him, the business mogul and chairman of United Nigeria Airlines dismisses the governor’s efforts off-handedly, and insists that the new outfit was a mere political platform. In a recent interview with the Daily Sun, he describes the development thus: “It is obvious that what he has set up is not a security outfit but a political platform with full security apparatus…Soludo has simply unveiled an army of intimidation and occupation to run everyone out of town for his re-election”.
It is difficult to believe than an aspirant to the state’s highest office could be so insensitive as to reduce the issue of the people’s security to mere partisan politics, or to consider his political interest above the security of the cirizenry. It is in the light of this baseless criticism that the scathing remark must be condemned. Does the billionaire businessman appreciate the enormity of the state of insecurity in his state and has he evaluated its impact on the social, political and cultural life of the people? Every discerning mind, especially those not blinded by selfish political interests, knows that these criminal activities have so disrupted the state’s social fabric, deterred investment, and discouraged visitors.
In recent times, many Anambra indigenes have been compelled to relocate significant ceremonies, such as marriages and burial ceremonies, to safer locations outside the state or even farther regions, seeking environments where guests can gather without apprehension. Traditional festivals, community gatherings, and other cultural events that once thrived have seen diminished participation or outright cancellations due to safety concerns. Not only do these acts dilute traditional practices, it has had profound cultural implications too numerous to mention. When one factors in the impact on the state’s economy and how businesses are forced to close or relocate due to threats and attacks, leading to job losses and decreased economic activities, the picture will look even more frightful.

Okonkwo
The good news is that the positive impact of “Operation Udo Ga-Achi” is already being felt. In its first few weeks of operation, reports of criminals and their enablers being apprehended, and kidnappers’ hideouts being demolished, give a positive indication. Granted that it has faced its early challenges, examples being cases where innocent people were picked up but later released, a preponderance of public opinion in the state is optimistic that the free reign of criminals in the state is gradually coming to an end.
The state governments pledge to reward, on monthly basis, any Local Government Area that remains free of violent crimes with N10 million and ₦5 million for individuals or whistleblowers who provide information leading to the arrest of kidnappers and other criminals, has acted as a good incentive.
The fact that the ‘Soludo Solution’ will involve over 2,000 personnel drawn from the Nigerian Army, Police, Navy, and other security agencies, defeats Prof. Okonkwo’s argument that it will be comprised of elements that will be used to hunt down political opponents to the governor’s advantage. Needless to say, Okonkwo’s criticism is politically motivated, given his declared ambition to contest the governorship election against Soludo, but this attack on the state’s security policy is, to say the least, tactless, senseless and wrong-headed. It does his campaign no credit, neither does it bolster his political standing in any way. Rather, it projects him as someone who wants to feed fat, politically, on the miseries of the people.
In the fight against crime in Anambra state, there should be no place for self-serving comments from narrow-minded politicians. He should spare a thought for the scores of innocent people routinely kidnapped for ransom or gruesomely killed these past years. He should consider the dozens of dead bodies randomly dumped by the roadsides or in the rivers by ritualistic who are after ego mbute. He should think of the damage done to society when innocent citizens go missing only for their mutilated bodies to be discovered after their organs have been harvested. Any effort to reduce the carnage as well as the growing army of lawless people who have turned Anambra into a state of anarchy should receive support from well-meaning indigenes of the state. It is uncharitable for Okonkwo, or anyone else, to reduce such an issue that involves lives and the livelihood of the people to unnecessary political brinkmanship.
Sheddy Ozoene is Editor-In-Chief of People&Politics,