REUBEN'S VIEWS
Two major events dominated the headlines in the weekend that just passed in Nigeria: the heroism, determination and the example of Ms. Hilda Effiong Bassey, known as Hilda Baci for short, and the sordid drama of Seun Kuti, son of Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, the ternal music icon, pushing, slapping and assaulting a policeman in uniform. Both subjects deserve commentary. But let’s start on a positive note, represented by Hilda Effiong Bassey, the Nigerian food entrepreneur, or chef, 27, who made up her mind that she wanted to get into the Guinness Book of World Records by beating the longest cooking marathon record by an individual set by Lata Tandon, an Indian Chef in 2019. Tandon cooked non-stop for 87 hours and 45 minutes. Nigeria’s Ms Baci decided that she would break that record and cook non-stop for 100 hours. The event took place at Amore Gardens in Lekki, Lagos. She turned her oven and cooker on Thursday, on May 10, and indeed till Monday morning, Baci kept dicing, frying, cutting, cookingm baking and ended up achieving her target. By the time she reached the significant mark of 87 hours and 50 minutes, she had already broken the world record, but she kept going. Nigerians are an interesting lot. Who would ever have thought that culinary skills could bring so much fame and history? There are many lessons and issues to be extracted from the Hilda Basi cook-a-thon that Nigerians just witnessed.
The first is that Nigerians are a creative and resourceful lot and should they put their minds to anything, they are capable of excelling at. These are the same people that President Muhammadu Buhari once referred to as “diamonds”, who represent the hope of the nation for the present and the future. When a gifted Nigerian seeks to excel, he or she does so. Ms Baci’s achievement is an indication of the can-do spirit of the Nigerian. The international community often complains about the unusual capacity of Nigerians for fraud and criminality, within the local and international arena, but there are in reality more Nigerians doing great things. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is representing us well at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Aminat Muhammed is a strong official at the United Nations in her position as a Deputy Secretary General. Asisst Oshoala, MON, is a big star in European women football. Tobi Amysan is world record holder in long jump. Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie is a leading writer and voice in the global space of culture and literature. There are Nigerians occupying political positions in Canada, UK, Ireland and elsewhere. We have Nigerians in the US military, in the US NASA programme and in the commanding heights of global trade and economy. Hilda Effiong Bassey has chosen cooking and are we delighted? Yes, we are.
The second thing to say is: Congratulations to her on this remarkable feat, and her admirable qualities, now well-advertised of tenacity, of purpose, vision and determination. Nobody, she teaches us, by the way, can achieve anything in this life, except you set a purpose for yourself and pursue it. It will be recalled that in 2021, this same Ms. Baci won the Jollof Face-Off competition, and got a grand prize of $5, 000. But that was not enough for her. She wanted a place in the Guinness Book of World Records. And now here she is. Every great achievement begins with a dream and the capacity to pursue that dream and stretch the dream to the end of the street. As of the time of this writing, we understand that Chef Hilda has stretched her target from 96 hours to 100 hours! Hilda, you too much oh! Indeed, because, despite all the good things that we have said about the Nigerian spirit, there are many of our compatriots who want the easy way out, they fake it, they cheat, they tell lies, they want the glamour but they do not want to apply themselves. Hilda Baci has just reinforced a simple lesson of life: that the surest way to distinction is through hard work, focus and rigorous self-application. It bears no stating that cooking for more than 90 hours, with short intervals of rest as allowed by the rules is excruciating rigour. Many marriages have been ruined because some other women can’t even spare 30 minutes to cook for their own children.
The third lesson is the innate Nigerian love for success, glory and achievement that is within us all. Nigerians have an inner craving for good things and when they see it, they gather around it like bees around nectar. This is what has happened with the Baci story. As she cooked, Nigerians trooped to the Amore Gardens in Lekki to hail her and offer support. Celebrities trooped to the venue in their uncountable numbers. Churches of the white garment variety kept vigil, calling on God to see her through. The Governor of Lagos visited. Senators of the Federal Republic led by Senator Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom North West, who wants to be Senate President by autocratic party anointment, also joined the cheer-leaders. Hilda Baci is from Akwa Ibom State. No other event unites Nigerians like that, apart from football. It rained overnight. The people refused to leave. In football, and now in a cooking event, Nigerians have suspended their differences. They don’t think of ethnicity or religion, or geography. They have come together as one nation, united for the glory of the nation. Baci drew support across all the centrifugal borders of Nigeria. Her supporters in fact defied the rain. It rained heavily in the night of Sunday to Monday. The people refused to go home. They stayed under the heavy rainfall, and kept singing. It was one of those rare occasions when we are reminded that this is a country after all. Thank you Baci, for reminding us with your culinary skills that it is possible to have a nation. Nations are made through symbols and the patriotism in the hearts of the people. If this had been an election, the situation could have been different. Hilda Effiong Bassey would have been reminded that she cannot cook in Lagos, because she is a non-indigene. The constituted thugs of Lagos, led by a well-connected Chairman would have gone to Amore Gardens to chase everyone away. But here we are: an Akwa Ibom woman cooking for the world in Lagos, has brought glory to the same Lagos. The clowns in high places who promote disunity simply need to lend themselves a little sense. Nigerian leaders can learn from Ms Baci how to cook a nation, and achieve results. Our leaders know how to eat, but they do not know how to cook.
The fourth point that I see here is that Hilda Baci’s feat is an advertisement for the cooking profession. She has raised the profile of chefs. More persons may well be encouraged by her example to take to cooking as a profession. I have not even bothered to find out how much this has cost her and her sponsors in financial terms and how much she stands to earn. The glory is more important than the financial gain. But what I see is that Hilda Baci is now a cultural icon. It is good that she has been congratulated by President Muhammadu Buhari. This is most deserved. I am also of the view that when Nigeria compiles its next National Honours list, it is people like her that we expect to see on that list, along with Rema, another world record holder, Tiwa Savage, Kizz Daniel, Burna Boy, Tems, award-winning intellectuals, the boys doing wonderful things in fintech, not some funny characters in bulbous robes who take more from Nigeria than they give. As a father, I would like to advise her to handle fame with care. Fame makes. Fame breaks. As her story developed, there were persons who were more interested in her beauty. Her pictures have been posted online showing her beauty and physical attributes on full display. Nigerian men love food. There is this popular folk saying that the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. A woman that is an acclaimed cook is a special target for stomach-driven Nigerian men. Ms Baci will get invited to cook by seemingly appreciative men who just want to taste. Beware, Baci. There are too many idle men in this society of ours who promise marriage and heaven, but are closet idiots. Focus on growing your business, and talent. Watch out for those who will soon begin to use your achievement to catch clout as they say.
The fifth and final point here is to congratulate, Hilda Baci’s mother. She is herself a chef. She runs a restaurant in Abuja. Her daughter follows in her footsteps. She learnt the trade at her feet. I have seen a video showing her expressing her delight at her daughter’s achievement. It is the prayer of every parent that their children should do better than them. Mrs. Bassey’s glory came on Mother’s Day, a mother’s hilarious delight! She has every reason to be grateful. Lecherous Nigerians men have observed that Mrs. Bassey herself is a very good spec. As a serious-minded person, I no longer engage in such conversations, so I won’t tell that side of the story. What I see here is the importance of parenting. In all of this, however, nobody has mentioned Mr. Bassey. Is he alive? This is the burden we bear as fathers. When the children do well, it is their mothers who step forward like characters from Bournvita cartoons. Still, we thank God for all children and mothers who bless the land as the Basseys have done.
Now to Seun Kuti, the enfant terrible, about whom terrible things have been reported during the same weekend that Hilda Baci did us all proud. Seun Kuti was reported to have dropped the ball. He assaulted a policeman. There was a video in circulation that showed him telling a policeman in uniform that he would deal with him. He slapped the police officer in uniform. He assaulted the policeman. He reportedly boasted thereafter that he has dealt with many policemen in similar manner in the past. Seun Kuti is my kinsman. I do not want anything bad to happen to him. But this time around I think he has carried his offering beyond the Mosque. It has been argued that it is a DNA thing. He is after all, the son of Fela Anikulapo Kuti. Fela did not wilfully break the law. He was in fact a law-abiding man. He challenged autocracy. He questioned the law as all citizens are allowed to do so. He was like his mother, the legendary, Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti. Seun Kuti’s forebears were defenders and promoters of good governance and the rule of. law. Even when state agents attacked Kalakuta Republic, an assault in which Seun’s grandmother lost her life, the state prevailed, even if unjustly. I think therefore that those who think it is a DNA thing for Seun Kuti to attack a policeman are wrong. People make their own choices. They do not inherit choices. What I am saying is that it would be most disrespectful to drag the dead into Seun Kuti’s matter. He is an adult and he must be made to answer for his own acts. The law does not recognize pedigree. You commit an act; you answer for it. The only thing the law recognizes is the equality of persons before the law. Seun Kuti is not above and cannot be above the law because he enjoys hereditary privilege.
From Saturday, there is a video in circulation showing him assaulting a policeman on the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos. The video evidence shows that he insulted the policeman and slapped him. He has since claimed that he has enough evidence to show that the policeman threatened his life and that of his family members. There have been other evidence notes on social media. We are told for example that he told the policeman before slapping him: “You dey craze? You dey mad?” In the meantime, the Inspector General of Police and the Police Service Commission have ordered arrest and investigations. The Police have a duty to ensure that their officers are not routinely assaulted by Nigerians. Dr. Solomon Arase, the Police Service Commission (PSC) Chairman has commended the affected police officer for the restraint that he demonstrated. That officer whom nobody has named – we need his true identity- should be promoted by Arase’s PSC. In my view, Seun Kuti was indeed lucky. If that policeman or his colleagues had rifles with them, they could have gunned him down. By now, he would be dead and we would all be talking about extra-judicial killing. The lesson here is that people must know their limits. In today’s Nigeria, my father was this or my grandmother was that, is not a protection claim in the face of the law. The present generation of Nigerians don’t know ancient history anyway. They should not rely on what grandpa and great grandpa and daddy did.
It is however refreshing to hear that Seun Kuti has shown up at the police station. He was reportedly put in silver ware. The offence that he has committed under Section 98 of the Police Act and Section 356 of the Criminal Code puts him in line for a three-year jail term. He says he has enough evidence to prove his innocence. He has a good lawyer: Femi Falana, SAN. Let them go and prove their case in the court of law, and as soon as the case is properly placed, let them address all the allegations including the underlying innuendo that Fela Kuti ‘s son is above the laws of the land. Should anyone be above the laws of Nigeria? I am aware however that there are other interested persons and groups in the public domain who are now beginning to say that if Seun Kuti is let off the hook, they too will begin to slap and beat Nigerian policemen, and they would cite Seun Kuti’s case as precedent. The substance of this matter lies in Seun Kuti’s relationship with the sovereign but whichever way it is resolved, his brand is already somewhat diminished. He doesn’t need that. This is the sad part of it.
Without prejudice to what transpires at the Presidential Election Tribunal on the February 25 election, and the request by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and others that the proceedings should be televised live – no problem about that, as long as the parties involved can bear the cost in defence of the ideal of transparency - it seems certain nonetheless that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President-elect and Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party, would be sworn in as President of Nigeria on May 29, 2023. The Federal Government has set up a Transition Committee, the President-elect has also set up an Inauguration Committee with some Nollywood stars named unto that committee already behaving like party boosters on social media. While the Election Petition Tribunal continues to keep, hopefully to its promise that it would consider every application on its own merit, Tinubu and APC are already preparing for their own Coronation ceremony on May 29, complete with jollof rice and aso ebi parties and a scale of pomp and pageantry that could rival the Coronation of King Charles III of Great Britain on May 6. Nigerians are very good at imitating the colonial masters. No one should be surprised if Tinubu arrives at the Eagle Square on Inauguration Day on a horse-drawn golden carriage. The morning after, he would swing into action, real time.
The sword of power would have been handed over to him. He would have such authority and access to resources that his challengers in court cannot hope to match. He would in fact have been placed in a position to exercise authority over those who are challenging him, their businesses and their needs. Even the courts would have taken notice of the fact that Nigeria is under a new dispensation. Tinubu has been in politics for a long time. He knows what power means. He has been a Senator. He has been Governor twice. He has been a Godfather in Nigerian politics for more than two decades. He has been a kingmaker. He is a veteran of the game. The real threat to our democracy is that we may have been presented with a fait accompli, while the lawyers shuffle papers and quote dead authorities and precedents in order to earn their pay. Even if the matter goes all the way to the Supreme Court let it be noted that the apex court is a court of law and also a court of public policy. This is why there is merit to the emerging argument that our electoral system needs further reform, and the Constitution must be amended accordingly to ensure that post-election, all election petitions are determined before anybody is sworn in. That is what they do in Kenya. Why not in Nigeria? For now, Bola Tinubu and the APC will benefit from this omission in the Nigerian Constitution. But the people’s consciousness has been awoken. Legal frameworks emerge on the basis of lessons learnt. Those who doubt the integrity and the legitimacy of the process that made the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to declare Tinubu as President-elect are bound to stay on this question until it is resolved, ahead of future elections. Such persons have the right to raise questions.
For now, therefore, let us reflect on the reality of a Tinubu Presidency that stares us in the face. He has not yet been sworn in, he is already acting as President. He has since moved into the Defence House, the traditional residence for Nigeria’s President in waiting. The other day, the Rivers State Government invited him to commission two projects and a two-day holiday was declared to host him. His supporters are now taking out family attires, the famous aso ebi. Materials have been submitted to tailors and fashion designers. No one should be surprised if Tinubu invites the opposition party leaders to his inauguration and quite a number would show up on D-Day. Has Action Alliance (AA) not withdrawn its petition at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal without giving any reason? For Bola Tinubu, May 29 would be a significant moment – the day that the kingmaker of many years takes the throne for which he had long prepared himself. His campaign slogan was “Emilokan” – “it is my turn”- May 29 would be a culmination of a life-long ambition, carefully executed over the years, from the days of NADECO struggle to Senatorial position, Governorship, and a crafty, deliberate, even if cynical construction of power, name recognition and influence. It would be history made on May 29, because Tinubu would have become the third South Westerner and the fifth Southerner – after Aguiyi Ironsi, Ernest Shonekan, Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan to lead Nigeria.
In 1966, July, in the heat of the counter-coup, Brigadier Babfemi Ogundipe who was next in line to Ironsi had to flee abroad when his Northern aides threatened to kill him. In the First and Second Republics, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who was most prepared for office and leadership never achieved the dream of becoming Nigeria’s President. In 1993, Chief MKO Abiola who emerged winner of what has been adjudged the freest and fairest election in Nigerian history was denied victory because the military led by General Ibrahim Babangida annulled the election. When Tinubu wears the Presidential sash on May 29, he would have succeeded where other clearly accomplished Yoruba sons “failed”. Such is the irony of life, but it is also the reason why Tinubu as a Nigerian President from the South and from the South West would be assuming a heavy burden of history. Being President alone, even for a week is probably enough for him – his name would have entered the annals of history. But that cannot be enough. The President-elect must not look forward to the fulfilment of naked ambition. He cannot go to Aso Villa in Abuja to drink tea, eat free food, and pick his teeth afterwards with toothpick. I dare say that toothpicks should be banned from Aso Villa forthwith. When a man sits on the stone of destiny, he sits atop a huge responsibility.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Presidential candidate engaged Nigerians with an 80-page manifesto which he titled “Renewed Hope”. I would be surprised if he has read his own manifesto. It took some time for that manifesto to be announced. His campaign managers disowned several versions before they finally decided on the 88-page document. Now here is the deal – in Nigeria, political manifestoes are written by a hired team who put out textbook ideas and tell the people what they want to hear which is why all the Presidential manifestoes in the 2023 Presidential election mouthed the same platitudes, an expression of the lack of clear ideological lines in contemporary Nigerian politics. This is the reason why under the Buhari administration, we had the interesting experience of a sitting President denying some of the contents of his own campaign manifesto. The ideas were not his, they were put there by the political jobbers aiming for the right sound bites. Nobody should be surprised if Tinubu also distances himself from some of the verbiage in his campaign document. But we expect him to reduce his priorities to clear, policy choices that can be monitored. No verbiage, just very clear actionable points. President Umaru Yar’Adua (2007 – 2010) had a seven point plus two special interest issues agenda for Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan (2010 – 2015) announced a Transformation Agenda with four special targets to seek profound changes in social, economic, political and the institutional structure of the country. President Muhammadu Buhari (2015 – 2023) eventually reduced his campaign manifesto to a specific three-point agenda. President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu is advised to follow the same pattern. I propose the following actionable, eight-point agenda, not necessarily in their order of importance.
One: The first big elephant in the room that the Tinubu administration has to deal with when it assumes office on May 29, right after the inauguration banquet is the removal of fuel subsidy. It is first and foremost a matter of law. Both the Appropriation Act 2023, and the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 prescribes a window of exit from the petroleum subsidy regime that does not extend beyond June 1, 2023. There is no provision for the funding of subsidy in the budget beyond that point. The Buhari administration had cleverly avoided taking responsibility for removing fuel subsidy and shifted the goal post claiming there could be “consequences” in a Bloomberg interview. The same administration has further saved itself from public backlash by saying it has secured an $800 million facility from the World Bank for the provision of palliatives, but it is now up to an expanded committee including the in-coming administration’s team to take a decision. It looks like a set up to me. Buhari would walk away as the man who was wary of “consequences”. Tinubu will be required to use his head to break the coconut. If the subsidy remains beyond the provisions of the law, and no attempt is made to amend the law, Tinubu would be starting off his Presidency by breaking the laws of Nigeria.
The government would have set out on a note of illegality. It would be akin to the Buhari administration violating the Procurement Act and the CBN Act with regard to CBN Ways and Means, and here on the eve of Buhari’s Departure, the National Assembly says it has approved the violation of the law. When the legislature breaks its own laws, and does so with immunity, then a country is in trouble. If it may be any consolation to those who are opposed to INEC’s declaration of Tinubu as President-elect, the truth is that the man is going to inherit a troubled nation. The country is broke. After May 29, it may not be able to meet its financial obligations. The question of fuel subsidy is a kind of poetic justice for Tinubu. In 2012, he and his allies organized designer protests at Ojota, Lagos and elsewhere to oppose fuel subsidy removal. If we had removed subsidy then, Nigeria would have since adjusted. Tinubu is saddled with the evil day that he postponed. He must either show courage or act cowardly. Economists for more than two decades have not changed their position from Lagos to Washington DC, that a fuel subsidy regime is unsustainable. It is important to state this because there are some ruling party hangers-on who have been saying that once Dangote Refinery comes on stream on May 22, then government can remove fuel subsidy. The two must be separated. It would be the ultimate act of cowardice to use the Dangote Refinery and the expected 650, 000 barrels a day as the fall guy for years of government incompetence. It is either Tinubu has the courage to act, or he would take a cowardly option which would again postpone the evil day.
Two: Revenue is a problem. We have been told this again and again by Nigeria’s financial managers and that the main challenge is to widen Nigeria’s revenue base. The Bretton Woods institutions in their Economic Outlook Reports on Nigeria have said more or less the same thing. Nigeria’s next administration has to find ways of increasing revenue. The easiest recommendation is to say government has to collect more taxes or widen the tax base. Nigerians are already groaning under the weight of too many taxes and they can’t see what anybody does with the taxes, and so, whatever government proposes, the people are suspicious. Tinubu, given his reputation as the man behind Alpha Beta, the tax collection agency in Lagos would find it difficult to tell Nigerians to pay more taxes. They would think he just wants to hand over Nigeria to Alpha Beta and collect bigger shares of the cake. Tinubu cannot be a tax collector of Nigeria. He will be resisted by everybody! His advisers must therefore look at other options. He has to prune down the cost of governance, starting with his own example. He must start by implementing the Oronsaye Report on Governance. All forms of duplication must be eliminated. There must be legislation telling Governors and Local Government Chairmen that they cannot have more than two assistants, maximum five and that everybody must stop going about as if they have just inherited the world. The COVID-19 crisis has shown that if Nigerian leaders stay at home for medical care, they can survive. Everyone, including the President must be told clearly that whatever they cannot treat in Nigeria may as well kill them. We are in the age of technology. Jumping around at public expense to treat gout and arthritis is unacceptable. Whoever wants to do so must show proof that they are spending personal funds! Tinubu must address Nigeria’s health sector crisis.
Three: Tinubu has been a long-time apostle of federalism. He has written a book on it. Symposia have been held in his honour on the subject. As Governor of Lagos State, he took President Olusegun Obasanjo to court on the subject of the creation of Local councils and the true reading of Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution. He won. I am not very sure that President Obasanjo has forgiven him for that. He now steps into the same shoes that Obasanjo occupied. He cannot run an imperial Presidency! If that sounds like another curse of nemesis, Tinubu must be made to realize that given his own antecedents and causes that he championed, he has to show that he truly believes in Federalism. One of his first tasks must be to support the devolution of powers, give the states more responsibilities and make the Federal Government more compact and effective. Anything otherwise would be used against him. He could come across as a hypocrite on the question of federalism, and he would have allowed OBJ to have a very good, last laugh in this emerging game of thrones.
Four: Tinubu has been a champion of a special status for Lagos. He is now in a position to make that happen. But he must resist the temptation to be a Yoruba or Lagos President. It is not only Lagos that deserves a special status. He must add to that agenda, Kaduna and Enugu. He must be the President of all of Nigeria, a unifier, not a divisive village chief. The same Lagosians who did not vote for him on February 25 would expect that he should do more for Lagos. He must not repeat the error of ethnic irredentism in Nigerian politics. He must avoid a winner-takes-it-all approach.
Five: He must sanitize the budgeting and procurement processes. Six; he must take a quick look at the foreign exchange regime. Seven: empower the security agencies, particularly the police. Eight: respect media freedom and the demands of Nigerian youths. These are low-hanging fruits. We wait. We watch.
Sudan, Africa’s third largest country is at the brink of disintegration, because two belligerent Generals _ Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan of the Sudanese Army and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, head of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are determined to destroy their own country for selfish reasons. They were allies previously when they worked together to oust Omar al-Bashir, the dictator and butcher of Sudan, but now the two Generals have turned against each other. They are fighting over power and position, backed on both sides by powerful outside interests whose main target is access to the rich resources of Sudan – gold, oil reserves, and gum Arabic. Sudan is the confluence for the White and Blue Nile to form the Nile. Egypt and Ethiopia have serious need of the Nile. About 10% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, around which Sudan is also strategically located. In the international community, there has been a scramble for the rich resources of Africa, since the colonial times, leading to the partition of Africa, slave trade, and the reduction of Africa to a source of raw materials to be exploited at cheap rates by Western and Eastern powers for their own gain.
The international community, for more than 100 years has talked about a global community of values, the equality and sovereignty of states, globalization, human rights and the common heritage of mankind but the same people who mouth those ideas the most are the most hypocritical. Africa is their convenient play-ground. Russia is seeking to control more of Sudan’s gold. It is backing the RSF in Sudan through the Wagner mercenaries. China also has its eyes on Sudan. Egypt is backing al-Burhan. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is pro-RSF. This is part of the drama playing out in Sudan: the hidden hands of hypocrites. But this has been possible before now in Liberia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Mali, Cote D’Ivoire and elsewhere because Africa has an unlucky supply of bad leaders. General Omar al Bashir brought Sudan to its knees, instigated a civil war in Darfur. He ended up as an international felon and left behind a deluge. His country has not known peace since he was ousted in a coup in 2019. The same people who got him out of power are not better either: Generals Burhan and Dagalo have frustrated Sudan’s transition programme and now that country is practically in a war situation. Sudan is an apt illustration of the saying that “when two elephants fight, the grass suffers.” Indeed the people of Sudan are suffering. Hundreds of them have been killed, thousands have been displaced, artillery guns are booming on the streets of Khartoum. Normal life is impossible.
As Sudan slips into chaos, and a humanitarian crisis explodes, the international community, apart from urging peace and a ceasefire, has embarked on the evacuation of their nationals in Sudan. Every country has a responsibility to protect and secure the lives of its citizens whenever they are in distress in any part of the world. We have seen that happen during the war in Ukraine, the crisis in Somalia, and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nothing inspires patriotism and nationalism more than the feeling that your country truly considers you important. It is in this sense that we have seen many countries rushing to Sudan and getting their people out of harm’s way before the imminent blow-out. By Sunday, April 30, Britain had airlifted about 2, 122 people on 23 flights from Sudan through the Wadi Saeedna airfield near Khartoum. Yesterday, Britain further told UK citizens to head towards Port Sudan for an extra flight out of Sudan. Initially, the British government had said that NHS doctors without passports would not be airlifted, and that priorities would be given to British citizens and their families. James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary who had initially complained about complexity has since said that those without passports have now been included in the flight to Cyprus, before the final journey home. The Royal Airforce and the Navy led the evacuation exercise. They went right inside Sudan and got their people out.
Similarly, the United States has dispatched its special operations forces to Sudan, aerial surveillance assets and unmanned but combat-ready drones. A Naval ship – UNS Brunswick, a fast-transport vessel was deployed by the Pentagon to the Port of Sudan. Two other ships are on the ground – the USS Truxtun, an Arleigh-Burke class destroyer and the USS Puller. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) based in Stuttgart is co-ordinating the evacuation. On Saturday, the US evacuated all its embassy staff out of Khartoum. Other US citizens have been ferried out of Khartoum in buses, guided by drones and other aerial assets. With China and Russia involved in the Sudanese crisis, and given the strategic regional importance of the country, America’s interest in Sudan is understandable. Part of its present mission is to ensure “Red Sea Security”. The US is a partner of the Sudanese Armed Forces. Our key point is that the US, like 10 other countries, has moved swiftly to protect its citizens, and chosen to be strongly on standby off the coast of Sudan in case the situation further deteriorates. China has also sent a military vessel to the Sudan to evacuate Chinese personnel. India over the weekend also dispatched a patrol vessel, INS Sumedha to the Port of Sudan with two Indian Air Force aircraft – the C-130J transport aircraft stationed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. India has so far evacuated 3, 000 of its nationals from Sudan. Other countries that have acted pro-actively include Germany, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, South Africa, France and the Netherlands. It is not an easy operation. On Sunday, a convoy trying to take French embassy staff in Khartoum to safety ran into a hail of gunfire. France has shut down its embassy in Khartoum. There is a race out of Sudan, as a 72-hour negotiated ceasefire and a further extension have failed, and bodies litter the streets, aerial bombardments continue, and Sudan begins to look like a convenient ground for geo-political war.
The foregoing picture leads us inexorably to one question: what is Nigeria doing to rescue its own nationals, about 5, 500 of them, and more who are mostly students who are stranded in Sudan. The figure is probably higher. Data from official sources in Nigeria are never reliable. Nigerians have been going to Sudan since the era of trans-Saharan Caravan trade, ad there may well be millions of us in that place. As the conflict in Sudan enters its third week, it is a crying shame that all that we have been getting from the Federal Government are excuses and such funny explanations that no serious country should offer. We have seen videos of Nigerians that are stranded in Sudan, most of them students, complaining about how they have been neglected by their government. We have seen families crying out for help. Nigerian youths are so aggrieved they have threatened to attack family members of Nigerian Embassy officials in Sudan. They say our Embassy officials are charging them $250 to be put on the evacuation list, Sudan is charging $8 per person, and those who have managed to get to the border of Egypt are being asked to cough out $25. While the Sudanese are fighting, Nigerians are staging a backward drama of their own. Nigeria’s Ambassador to Sudan, Safiu Olaniyan has had cause to cry out in a voice note, appealing to Nigerians in Sudan not to attack Embassy officials. He made it clear that they, the Embassy officials, are as vulnerable as other Nigerians in Sudan, and that nobody should attack them. According to him, the responsibility for managing the evacuation of stranded Nigerians is with the Ministry of Disaster and Humanitarian Affairs and the Nigerian Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) back home in Nigeria, but that he and his team would continue to liaise with the Nigerian authorities. Can you imagine a country’s envoy throwing his own home authorities under the bus? It is not just Nigerians that are stranded in Sudan, it is Nigeria itself that is stranded. Compared to what other countries are doing, Nigeria looks like it has no shame.
Last Friday, I asked for explanations on another platform in order to give Abuja the benefit of the doubt. They had promised that the first batch of Nigerians would return from Sudan on Friday. Allen Onyema, Chairman and founder of Air Peace Airline publicly offered to use his aircraft to airlift Nigerians out of Sudan, without charging a penny. His aircraft were ready. Since the Nigerian government had promised that Nigerians would be airlifted through Egypt, he went ahead and secured landing rights for Air Peace at his own expense in Egypt. The Aliko Dangote Foundation has also announced that it would partner with Air Peace to do whatever it takes to get Nigerians out of Sudan. Countries benefit from the philanthropy of some of their best citizens who complement government’s efforts without expecting anything in return. We saw that during the COVID-19 pandemic when Dangote led a private sector coalition to provide help. We saw that when Allen Onyema went to Ukraine to bring Nigerians out of Ukraine when war broke out. We saw that when during the xenophobic attacks in South Africa, Allen Onyema took the risk of helping to evacuate Nigerians. But the Nigerian government always disappoints, and that is precisely what they are doing in Sudan.
Once upon a time, Nigeria had the dream of becoming a world power. We boastfully referred to ourselves as the giant of Africa and our leaders could call the shots across the African continent, and fight for a seat at the United Nations Security Council. When Professor Bolaji Akinyemi was Minister of Foreign Affairs: he talked about such ideas as the Concert of Medium Powers and the Black Bomb and Nigeria as a world power. The situation in Sudan has just exposed how we have lost it. Three weeks after the Sudanese crisis began, Nigeria is talking about how much was spent to hire buses that would evacuate Nigerians. Dr. Sani Gwarzo, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Disaster and Humanitarian Affairs has given a press conference where he reportedly affirmed that Nigeria had set aside $1.2 million to engage bus drivers and that so far 26 buses have been engaged, each at a cost of $30, 000. N24 million to hire a bus from Khartoum to Port Sudan or Aswan? He said the money was sent through third parties. Dr. Gwarzo and the Situation Room on the Evacuation of Nigerians from Sudan which he chairs, must be told that they have more explanations to offer. He said 40 buses were engaged, but only 26 have been seen. What happened to the $1.2 million then? There was even that ugly incident as reported, whereby drivers taking Nigerians to Aswan, the Egyptian border stopped in the middle of the desert and told the distraught Nigerian passengers to pay or be left in the desert. They were there for five hours! The buses eventually started moving, only for us to be told again, yesterday, that one of the buses conveying 50 Nigerian students, tagged Katsina 1, caught fire. What kind of embarrassment is this? Are we serious at all?
What is worse is that the Nigeria Air Force (NAF) on Saturday sent a Hercules C-130 to Aswan, Egypt to get Nigerians back home. The NAF crew of 14 left with food supplies, but that crew is stranded at the airport. What is meant to be a swift operation has turned into a nightmare. The NAF is being charged heavily by the Egyptian authorities. The NAF crew is stranded. In Sudan and back home in Nigeria, we are told that the country is having logistics and diplomatic challenges. After three weeks, nobody is sure when Nigeria would airlift its first batch of evacuees. The Nigerian Air Force crew of 14 is suggesting that it is better to use Port Sudan, rather than Egypt, which is insisting on visa and payments.
What the hell is happening to African Unity? Egypt has provided support for other countries. Sudan has not asked the Americans for money. Somalia took its people out through the Ethiopian border. Sudan is surrounded by seven African countries. Nigeria is being snubbed by Egypt. Can’t we arrange to evacuate our people through another country? Or are we so hated diplomatically in Africa that nobody would offer our people easy passage? Why would Egypt ask Nigerians for visa in an emergency rescue operation? This is clearly a failure of diplomacy. Every African country treats us shabbily, especially the North African countries. The only exception was Muammar Ghaddafi of Libya during his lifetime. He had a grand vision of African Unity, but other North African leaders relate with sub-Saharan Africa only when they have something to gain. Please, where is the African Union and the regional economic groups in Africa? What is left of African integration? Has anybody deemed it necessary to summon the Egyptian ambassador in Nigeria? The NAF crew is recommending that Nigeria is better off evacuating our people through Port Sudan. Have we sent an aircraft there? Do we have a functioning Naval vessel that can provide transportation from Port Sudan to Nigeria, or do we need to hire Navy transportation?
Nigerians in Sudan want to be rescued from a war situation. Their families at home want them to be safe. If Nigerian officials have nothing intelligent to tell us, the minimum that they can do is to bring our people home, and until they have something concrete to tell us, they should do us the favour of avoiding plainly stupid excuses. It is painful that a country like Somalia is able to rescue its nationals from Sudan and my own country is busy telling Moonlight tales. If they need help, let them approach the British and the Americans or even the International Red Cross, or perhaps the Chinese, without getting involved in any matter beyond rescue and evacuation. As I write, a story pops up that the Egyptian President has now approved that Nigerians can be airlifted out of Aswan after President Muhammadu Buhari spoke to him, but with stringent conditions. Are we supposed to be excited about that? Did Egypt insist on the same stringent conditions with other countries? For the past four days, over 600 Nigerians have been stranded at the Egyptian border. For two days, our Air Force has been treated shabbily in Aswan. The only thing to say is that when our people are safely evacuated back home, we would believe the endless stories. What a country!
I have no reservations whatsoever in joining many others at home and abroad today, Saturday, April 29, to celebrate the birthday of the man popularly known as Otunba, Dr. Mike Adenuga on the occasion of his attainment of the landmark age of three scores and ten. It is trite knowledge that 70 is the Biblical age. The average time of longevity in Nigeria is 54, a country bedevilled by many existential crises and issues. Living up to the age of 70, in a country where death is cheap, poverty is rife, political leaders are not trusted, the road lies in wait to grab harvests on a daily basis - is in itself an achievement. It is therefore fit and proper to celebrate Michael Adeniyi Agbolade Ishola Adenuga Jr. on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Born on April 29, 1935, he is seventy today, and he truly deserves our applause.
In the past week, I have seen a surfeit of tributes and announcements. One particularly notable one was posted by Aare Dele Momodu, one of Otunba Adenuga’s many proteges and beneficiaries, on his social media pages. Aare Momodu tells us that today, to be precise, there will be no loud parties… Otunba Adenuga has chosen to be at home with his family to reflect on an unprecedented trajectory; thanking God for seventy years of abundant grace, (2) that those who wish to celebrate with him should do so in modesty and simplicity which reflect his own reclusive personality; (3) that he would be delighted to have the younger generation read about his epic battles for success and imbibe some of the extraordinary attributes that catapulted him to being one of the most enigmatic icons on planet earth; (4) Dele Momodu says Dr Mike Adenuga Jnr has dominated the business space in the last four decades with investments in commodity trading, real estate, banking, oil and gas, telecommunications, manufacturing and construction. … and (5) he adds that Mike Adenuga is a most generous giver and a silent donor to worthy causes…” I concur. Seventy years of achievement. Seventy years of glory.
The only part of this advisory that I think will not fly is the build-up story that Otunba Mike Adenuga is going to spend his special day, today, ensconced with family, reflecting on his 70 years, in line with the virtues of modesty and simplicity and a reclusive personality. Yes, I know, that Otunba. Mike Adenuga is a self-effacing personality. With all his accomplishments, you won’t find him making noise at social events, throwing money around or trying to prove that he is a big man, as Nigerians say. But come off it, he is 70 today. He deserves to stage a dance, and sing a song. Where I come from, every birthday has what I call implications because birthdays are not for dying, they are for celebrations not monastic ruminations and hibernation. Otunba Adenuga’s aides should be told to urge their boss to celebrate. God has been kind to him. Adenuga at 70 is an occasion for pepper soup and jollof rice, and let no one tell him to restrict the feast to his family. The other day when Tony Elumelu, Chairman of United Bank of Africa (UBA) turned 60, I was quietly in my house when they sent me jollof rice and other gift items which I received and consumed with relish. When, a few years earlier, Nduka Obaigbena, the publisher of this newspaper, turned 60 we all went to Eko Hotel, the rooftop oh, not any small space, where we all had fun and took photographs. I ate and I took something home!
Can someone please drag out Otunba Mike Adenuga, today and let him have fun, as we all join his friends and family to wish him a happy birthday, because he is indeed a jolly good fellow, an icon, a role model, a man with a good heart and a dependable guy. He is one of those persons that President Muhammadu Buhari referred to the other year when he talked about diamonds that make Nigeria great. Mike Adenuga is indeed a fine representation of the Nigerian dream, one of those who give hope to younger generations that it is possible to achieve, excel in whatever you put your mind and energy to, and surpass your dreams. Michael Adenuga is identified with two major animals as totems of signification: the first is the Bull. The Bull is the second sign of the Zodiac sign: Taurus, an earth sign relating to persons born between April 20 and May 20. Persons born under this sign are cosmic oxens, steadfast, loyal and ready to roll up their sleeves and get results. Apart from Otunba Mike Adenuga, one other Nigerian, in fact the only other one that I know who goes by the epithet “the Bull” is Daniel Amokachi, the ace footballer and legend. Daniel Amokachi even in retirement is one of the best that ever played football. There are men and there are persons. I submit that our subject in this commentary is a man. It is not for nothing that Otunba Mike Adenuga is portrayed in other representations as a lion. The lion is the king of animals. In his many expeditions in the course of seven decades, Mike Adenuga has indeed proven himself to be a king. I mean this in the literal sense without prejudice to the fact that he is the son of a princess of Ijebu Ode, who married an Ijebu-Igbo man, whose burial is recorded as one of the most befitting and colourful in contemporary times, nor the fact that Mike Adenuga is a first cousin of the Ogbagba II, paramount ruler of Ijebu Kingdom, Oba Sikiru Kayode Adetona, one of the longest living monarchs in Nigeria having spent more than 60 years on the throne. My point is that Adenuga had royal blood in him, but he became king not in the palace, but on the streets of struggle and self-realization. Despite his privileged background with noble connections, he actually sent himself to school in the United States.
Business schools teach case studies, and the models can be organizational or individual-specific. I once sat in classes where the subject was about CEOs – what makes them tick, how they think, how they are made, and why they do what they do. Mike Adenuga would prove to be a classic case study, and a source of lessons for the younger generation. Some of his critics, and I am sure there would be many out there, are likely to say that he is a lucky guy, who managed or happened to be in the right place at the right time. Afterall, he attended Ibadan Grammar School. Founded in March 1913, Ibadan Grammar School was one of those top elite schools in Ibadan, of Anglican Church extraction. This was the school that Mike Adenuga attended. The school also had on its alumni list, Justice Franklin O.M. Atake, a distinguished jurist, Chief Ayo Rosij, lawyer, politician, former Minister; Chief Michael Omolewa, the industrialist; my late boss, mentor, benefactor and employer, Mr.Alex Ibru, founder of The Guardian Newspapers and the Sheraton Hotels, Dr Olusegun Agagu, former Governor of Ondo State, and Chief Bola Ige, lawyer, politicians, author and former Attorney-General and Minister of Justice.. The school also had the reputation of having had as principal and founder, the late Pa Bishop Alexander Babatunde Akinyele who brought much distinguished glory to the school.
We had a lecturer, Mr. Sonny Samson-Akpan, in Calabar in those days who never failed to remind us that he attended Ibadan Grammar School. If we wanted to prod him, we would point out that Ibadan also had Government College, Ibadan (GCI) which had an even more glowing story. The truth is that once upon a time in this country, alumni and alumna of different schools used to compete for glory. They were proud of their alma mater. But that is another story entirely. After Ibadan Grammar School, Mike Adenuga went to Comprehensive High School Aiyetoro for his A’Levels as it is called. “Compro,” as that school was popularly known was one of the best schools in Nigeria’s Western Region. It had excellent teachers, offering American-styled education. It provided a truly comprehensive education across disciplines and subjects. Products of the school, from that era, even till today, still go about as if they are on stilts, although the school like many others of that glorious season has changed form, content and substance.
The Adenuga story is that he later went on to the United States for further education, and there, working as a taxi driver, he sent himself through college, getting a first degree from Northwestern Oklahoma State University and a graduate degree from Pace University, New York, majoring in Business Administration. The man we are celebrating today is that taxi driver, I think they call a taxi driver, a cabbie in the US, who is now 70 and is known as one of the most accomplished men on the African continent. He became an entrepreneur quite early, buying and selling. He was already a millionaire by the age of 26. He sold lace and soft drinks. By 1990, he had diversified into many areas of enterprise and industry, banking, oil and gas, entrepreneurship. In 1990, his company, Consolidated Oil and Gas, (CONOIL) had struck oil in commercial quantities in the shallow waters of South Western states of Nigeria. He also founded a bank, now defunct - the Equatorial Trust Bank (ETB). He is also today, the Chairman and Founder of Globacom, the second largest telecom operator in Nigeria, with significant presence in other African countries including Ghana and Benin Republic. Adenuga is regarded by Forbes and other wealth-watching groups as the second richest man in Nigeria. Adenuga is the second richest man in Nigeria and the sixth richest in Africa. To bring that to the level of the common man, each time you make a call on the Globacom network just to say “Hello My Neighbour. How are you today?”. Mike Adenuga makes money. He mints money.
I have been attending classes in International Political Economy taught by Professor D. K. Ologbenla who has been treating such subjects as the Theories of Capitalism, the definitions, scope and essence of political economy the Tenets of Capitalism, International Aid, Multinational Corporations, IMF/World Bank, and in all this he talks about the capitalist as an agent for wealth production/creation, property acquisition, job creation and value addition. In other words, whether you view capitalism from the laissez faire, neo-liberal perspective or the communist conception, capitalism ultimately adds value, and it is better to have a balanced perspective of the various propositions. Otunba Mike Adenuga is one of those capitalist agents involved in trade and industry and one of the most impactful in Africa, promoting prosperity and economic growth. It is instructive that he has been honored by his own country, Nigeria, as a Grand Commander of the Order of the Niger (GCON), the second highest honour in Nigeria. He has also received high honours from Ghana, and France where in 2018, President Emmanuel Macron conferred on him the prestigious Commander of the Legion d’Honneur. In Ijebuland, he is Otunba Apesin. He is also one of the top-most influential Africans alive today. But the key thing is his promotion of welfare capitalism, his commitment to charity and community (the three Cs), philanthropy, and the manner in which he constantly gives back and helps to recreate society. I have read quite a number of tributes in the last week, from persons who have given testimonies of how they have benefitted directly from his generosity. As someone who has known him since I was a young, very angry, activist, journalist, I have been a beneficiary of his many acts of generosity. I don’t intend to tell those stories here today. I would rather reserve my “Adenuga and I stories” till another date. Most of our people are too envious. I don’t want to put anybody under unnecessary pressure as in: hen hen, is it Reuben Abati alone? I don’t want to attract the attention of you people who put eyes and mouths in other people’s matter. This is about Otunba Michael Adenuga: his humanism, his accomplishments, his heroism.
He has done so much for the land of his birth: creating wealth, prosperity, opportunities and building lives. As he turns 70 today, I urge you to charge your glasses and let’s propose a toast to this great son of Ijebuland, Ogun State, Nigeria, Africa, and a global, bridge builder across the world as he turns 70. Is Bella reading this? Bella Adenuga (now Mrs Disu) is Otunba Adenuga’s daughter, if you are there, please bell me. I will tell you my address, for the onward transportation of my own Birthday mende-mende as they say in Yoruba language. Even the great Michael Adenuga must know that it is not fair for him to hide on his birthday today. Happy birthday sir. Many Happy Returns. Cheers.
Nigeria’s President-elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is back in the country. He was declared winner of the February 25 Presidential election with 8, 794, 726 of the total votes cast with over 25% in 30 states, more than the 24 states required by the Constitution. He reportedly returned to the country at 4.30 pm yesterday through the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja after a four-week vacation in Europe and Saudi Arabia. He left the country on March 21, and according to his handlers, the President-elect needed time to rest, relax, re-tune, rejuvenate and prepare for the inauguration of a new government on May 29. We were told he would be in France, the UK and Saudi Arabia where he was expected to observe the lesser hajj, that is Umrah. The trip fueled speculations about the state of his health, with many Nigerians arguing that his trip abroad was a cover up for undisclosed medical treatment. There were even videos of his sightings in Guinea, and speculations about his citizenship. For record purposes, I had argued on another platform, The Morning Show of AriseNews, the television wing of this newspaper where, as lead anchor I ruminate on sundry issues every morning - that Asiwaju Tinubu has the right to the freedom of movement and that I did not see anything wrong if he wanted to take time off to rest after what we would all readily agree was a hectic, hypertensive, campaign season.
Nigerians were however inconsolable. They wanted the President-elect on the ground. They said they were not comfortable with the idea of a President-elect who would be missing in action or become the equivalent of an unidentifiable, untraceable flying object going from France to the UK to Saudi Arabia and wherever. Where is he?, they asked. And that included even persons that did not vote for him. To be fair, I could understand the concerns of those who raised these questions. When a man is proclaimed President-elect, he becomes automatically, a property of the state. He becomes a person and subject of state interest. He is effectively no longer an ordinary person. He is asked to move into secure state accommodation, in this case, the Aguda House in Abuja. He is given a full complement of state security. He receives daily briefings from all the security agencies. He acts in other words, as if he were already President. The only difference is that he cannot yet exercise executive powers until he is duly sworn in and he takes the oath of office. The underlying logic in this regard is that there cannot be two Presidents at a time. So, in effect, Tinubu is a President-in-waiting, and Nigerians who are concerned about his movement, health and safety have every reason to raise questions. There are also national security implications. The British, Chinese and the Americans would not allow their President-elect yo-yoing across the world weeks before inauguration. In traditional communities, such persons, waiting to ascend the throne, are kept in seclusion, to be prepared for the enormous assignment ahead and their transition from one plane of existence to the other.
However, Bola Tinubu is back. What a big relief! His return, yesterday, it can be said, has settled the questions about his condition and health. Those who have raised questions about his health and circumstances can now see him. It bears stating that no one would expect any further overseas travel by the President-elect before his inauguration, 35 days from now. The timing of his return is also auspicious. The Ramadan season is over, and whoever uses religion as the excuse for being abroad, is of course expected to return. While he was away, the supplementary elections in 24 states of the Federation took place on April 15. The President-elect issued a statement commending the process and asking all elected persons to work with him. While he was away also, there were controversies about his citizenship and whether or not he committed perjury in filling the Form EC9 that he submitted to INEC. Quite a number of persons insist that the President-elect must address these two issues.
I have argued and I stand to be corrected that the controversy about his Guinean connection and/or dual citizenship is of no moment. No right-thinking, reasonable person would imagine that Tinubu is not a Nigerian. He is in fact more Nigerian than most of us. That is why he is President today and you and I are busy still pursuing the dream. The laws of our land recognize dual citizenship, and in law that matter was settled in the Bukola Saraki case. The conditions for citizenship are properly spelled out in Sections 25 – 28 of the 1999 Constitution, and there is no point quibbling over Tinubu’s qualifications in that regard. The other issue that has been raised has to do with perjury. But that can only be proven and confirmed by a court of law. Section 117 of the Criminal Code frowns upon giving false evidence or testimony, either orally or in writing, and Section 118 further prescribes punishment accordingly. But perjury has to be proven. It should be recalled that last year, some lawyers went to the Federal High Court accusing Tinubu of perjury. It was an ex parte motion seeking an order of judicial review with regard to Tinubu’s educational qualification. What is the status of that case?
We have been through this route before, by the way. As Governor of Lagos State, Tinubu was similarly accused of perjury. The lawyer involved in that case was a jurist of timbre and calibre: the inimitable Gani Fawehimi. “Gani The Law” was a formidable officer in the temple of justice. But nothing came out of that case. The matter was dismissed. The order of mandamus sought by Gani Fawehinmi was ruled out of time. Tinubu was already Governor. The court held that the was covered by immunity under Section 308 of the 1999 Constitution. I imagine that similarly, history would repeat itself on this matter, in the same manner in which it is certain that the inauguration of Asiwaju Tinubu as President of Nigeria would take place on May 29, 2023. It is true that there are petitions at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, but anybody who knows Nigeria fairly well can confidently wager a bet that their Lordships will not give a decision to upturn the social and political order. Tinubu has already set up an inauguration committee, a 13-man committee. His associates have been sighted attending the Spring meetings of the Bretton Woods institutions in Washington DC, United States. He has been busy playing Rose Garden politics. Meanwhile, nothing has been heard from the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal. Petitions and cross petitions have been filed. Hundreds of lawyers have been lined up. We would probably be here in 50 days from now, with inauguration done attended by traditional rulers competing for attention, the international community in attendance too, a Federal cabinet in place, the woman in charge of catering for the Presidential inauguration Ball having been paid for her pepper soup, small chops, and jollof rice, and the aso ebi, skyscraper Yoruba headgear crowd compensated, a new National Assembly inaugurated, and then the election petition tribunals would suddenly start sitting… The same tribunals would be paid and offered logistics by the new government. Indeed, the Nigerian system is one of the most comedic in the world. Never mind. The lawyers will collect their pay, there will be one or two dramas in the courts, the judges will be happy to have made some fine points of law, and we will all move on.
Moving on, however, it is important, now that the President-elect is back in town that we remind him of the urgent tasks ahead: the big load on his shoulders, the thing around his neck: how to lead Nigeria out of the woods. Nigerians can expect that it would not take Tinubu a long time to set up a Cabinet. In 2015, it took President Buhari quite a while to identify Ministers. He was not alone. One state Governor ran a one-man show in his state for a whole year! He had stayed too long in Lagos before going back home to be Governor. He had difficulties identifying his own people. Tinubu would naturally put a team together without any stress. He has the necessary experience. He has done this and that before as Governor of Lagos State and as an active Godfather in Nigerian politics. Nonetheless, he has more than enough persons in his face who since the elections have been posturing as potential Ministers and advisers, re-enacting their own “Emilokan” – “it is my turn” posturing. The sense of entitlement in the Tinubu camp is so much, so loudly paraded, I would not be surprised if one or two persons in that camp end up in the hospital if they do not get what they think they deserve. But should that bother us? Nigerians are not looking for a team, post-May 29, of entitled persons, boys and girls who are in government to collect IOUs, “emilokan adventurists” in the corridors of Aso Villa.
Nigerians want a team that can work and move Nigeria forward. In eight years, this country has taken one step forward, two steps backwards. We don’t need to argue over that. Check your pocket. Listen to the loud, tsunami-like rumblings of your stomach. Consider the rate at which burial spaces are disappearing at the cemeteries because of increased harvest of corpses. Imagine how laughter has died in the people’s throats and the pronounced jeremiad in Southern Kaduna, Benue and Plateau. Headline inflation is now over 22%. Food inflation is much higher. The country is in heavy debt. Only the other day, the World Bank told us that Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio is 96%. President Buhari says he is looking forward to May 29, and that he can’t wait to return to his home town of Daura. He wants Nigeria to forgive him in case he has not met our expectations. Err, he needs not worry. Nigerians are too distracted, too confused, they don’t know what is good for them. The President can be sure that he has already been forgiven except anybody wants to start another round of religious and ethnic controversy. Charly Boy says the apology is not accepted. Charly Boy, Charly Daddy, is on his own. What Nigeria needs right now is a magician. And the question is: how versed is Tinubu in the magical arts of leadership and societal transformation? He says “emilokan”: now soon, that would be fulfilled in a historical manner, the only other Yoruba man in contemporary times to be President of Nigeria. Very soon, Abuja will be overtaken by the Yoruba cap, the language spoken in the big halls of Abuja hotels would be distinctively Yoruba, “emilokan” will become “awalokan” with Tinubu’s children, in-laws and associates treading the surface of mother earth like new conquerors, backed by power aphrodisiac and possibly, Artificial Intelligence! What Nigeria needs is a President who knows what to do!
“Whatever they like, they (can) speculate, I am healthy and strong and I am okay. May 29 is not a calendar…The challenge ahead is beyond that., it is for all of us together. And we must stay focused. That is very important. Don’t isolate one date. One date on the calendar does not mean anything. It is just an event.”, Tinubu said on his arrival yesterday. Good. We have heard. But the President-elect must be further reminded that he made many promises to Nigerians, including those who voted for him and those who did not, about his mission to restore hope. Nigerians are looking forward to the delivery of those promises. They need the renewed hope that he promised! Once upon a time in this country, and many would remember, a President told us that he was not aware of the promises in his own election manifesto. He changed the script the moment he got into power and blamed the past administration for everything that did not work. Tinubu cannot play that game. He is an APC man succeeding an APC administration. He would not have a predecessor to blame! Scratch that out of the strategy list. He cannot unleash the security agencies either after the departing administration. If anything, he would in fact be expected to give the incumbent President and other influential persons slots in his own government.
We, the people of Nigeria, cannot control that. But we expect hope, and that the promises made will be delivered. The President-elect promised Nigerian students that he will pay them loans. Those students at home and abroad are waiting. Where will the money come from? He told us he will increase oil production to 4 million barrels per day. Nigeria has never done more than 2.2 million barrels per day. We can’t even meet our OPEC-assigned quota. Nigeria’s refineries are down, there is a big crisis in the oil and gas sector, upstream, midstream and downstream. Will Tinubu remove fuel subsidy, immediately he assumes office, on May 29, or would he postpone the evil day complaining about consequences or some “bla bla, blu blu” excuses?. He says he will address the challenge of insecurity in the country. How? And how soon? We would all love to see a civilian leader succeed where a President with an acclaimed strong security background failed. The days ahead are challenging indeed, not a season for proverbs and Babelic language but action, leadership and results.
As it is, Tinubu will be President. The courts can have their say, but the power brokers will have their way. I sympathize with the people who continue to insist that something else will happen before May 29, based on the predictions of. prophets and pastors. I am unavailable for that kind of talk, to borrow a phrase that has been made popular in Nigeria by Davido, the musician. In Nigeria, you can hire a Pastor to see what you want to see, and use his social media pages (These Pastors are all over social media now) to say what you want to say. Even persons who are not pastors see visions in Nigeria. So, deal with it, what is ahead in Nigeria would prove to be very interesting. The countdown has begun.
With the way the Independent National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (INEC) is carrying on under the watch of Professor Mahmood Yakubu as Chairman, it would take a miracle for the present Chairman of that controversial and embattled body, not to end up on the wrong side of history. Some jobs within the public space are by nature thankless regardless of efforts put in, but a job can be done so badly, what would be remembered are the ugly episodes and memories of failure. Professor Yakubu’s misfortune would be that it was in his time that the country came round to the idea that technology should be deployed as election tools, and that some of the reforms that Nigerians had been looking for should be addressed by updating the electoral framework.
In Yakubu’s time, Nigeria came up with the Electoral Act 2022, which indeed is a different kind of law, an advancement from the Electoral Act 2010. Everyone celebrated the emergence of the new Electoral Act as a game changer for Nigeria with the novel innovations about INEC’s financial independence in Section 3(3), early conduct of primaries and submission of candidates list in Section 29 (1), legal backing of electronic voting and transmission of results in Sections 47 and 50(2), overvoting redefined in Section 51, the non-eligibility of political appointees as delegates or aspirants in Section 84(12), special provisions for the physically challenged in Section 54, early commencement and longer period of campaigns in Section 94, provision for a central electronic data base in Section 99… Mahmood Yakubu’s INEC boasted that it had tested the law in the bye-elections in Osun and Ekiti and that during the then scheduled 2023 general elections, INEC would put all the reforms into effect. What have we seen? It turned out from the very beginning that the National Assembly did not understand the same law that it had enacted and the implications. The same people who enacted the law tried to change it. They didn’t succeed. Before the elections, INEC said it was ready. It put out messages about how results would be uploaded from polling units to the INEC Results Viewing Portal, real time. It said its officials were up to the task.
The details of how INEC disappointed Nigerians is well-captured by the reports of various observers, local and international, and the tsunami of litigations that have attended the elections held this year, on February 25 (Presidential and National Assembly), and March 18 (Gubernatorial and State Houses of Assembly). Nigeria’s 2023 general election would go down as one of the most disputed in the country’s electoral cycle since the first general elections were held in the country in September 1923 under the Clifford Constitution of 1922. It may be said, after a fashion, that the true test of a law is in its implementation. Any piece of legislation is a living organism. Laws are made for the good of society. Thus, as living organisms, laws evolve and implementation structures and organs are aligned with the law-givers’ original intentions. I am of the view that given the contortions that have been experienced so far with the Electoral Act 2022, Nigeria needs to work further on the electoral framework, to oxygenate and deepen our democracy, and to align it more reasonably with the people’s will. The minimum lesson at this point is that when a law is made, those who are expected to operationalize it must study and understand it. State and party officials are so routinely distracted, they do not pay enough attention.
The extent to which this is so is that after the elections of February 25 and March 18, the electoral body, INEC took the decision to conduct supplementary elections in 24 states of the Federation, 2,660 polling units, 93 Legislative constituencies and 185 local governments, where elections had been declared inconclusive. Those supplementary elections took place on Saturday, April 15. INEC said it was better prepared, having learnt lessons from its most recent exercises, and having tested the Electoral Act in a general election. It was possible to believe that certain lessons had been learnt within the space of close to a month: March 18 – April 15. The Inspector General of Police lent his voice to the matter and said that the supplementary elections would proceed smoothly. But on April 15, it was déjà vu. The morning after, The Vanguard newspaper reported as follows: “Supplementary Elections: Violence, vote-buying reign as NNPP wins more seats in Kano.” The Sunday Punch told us: “Supplementary Elections: Four Killed, Houses razed, Thugs Disrupt Polls in Rivers, Anambra, Others”. The paper added in its front-page story: “Three killed in Kano for disrupting poll, soldiers shoot Kebbi ballot snatcher dead, APC, PDP, NNPP await INEC declaration of Adamawa, Kebbi gov seats.” … The report by Sunday Sun was as follows: “Violence, Apathy, Late Arrival of Materials Mar Supplementary Elections”, with the rider: “3 feared killed in Kano, Thugs, police, Ebubeagu chase away voters, abduct electoral officials in Imo, 6 persons arrested, 1 at large in Adamawa, over attempt to hack BVAS, vote buying , thuggery in Anambra, apathy, intimidation in Edo…” The Nigerian Tribune reported: “Supplementary Elections: Again, violence, ballot snatching rock exercise – 4 killed in Kano, Kebbi, EFCC arrests 12 in Kano, Katsina for vote-buying.”. The Sunday Independent said: “Sokoto Polls suffer voter apathy, late arrival of materials”.
The same weekend, party primaries were held in some of the states where off-cycle elections would take place later in 2023. The primaries were just as problematic. In Kogi state, four aspirants were reported to have rejected APC Gubernatorial primaries. The Nation said: “Sylva wins Bayelsa APC Guber Primary… Confusion as Labour Party holds factional primaries in Imo… Anxiety in Kebbi, Adamawa over guber elections”. In one word, despite all the concerns and anxieties expressed about the 2023 process as seen on February 25 and March 18, the supplementary elections of April 15, and even the party primaries in Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi states, indicated very clearly, that nothing had changed and nothing would probably change going forward. Nigerians run a peculiar kind of democracy where anything and everything is possible and the only thing that matters is winning at all costs. It is a democracy of deaf and dumb persons fixated on only one goal and who define democracy strictly by personal standards. I have stumbled on the argument that there will never be a time Nigerian democracy will be run by saints and I am tempted to believe that ours may well be described as a democracy of villains, where the smartest villain wins. The only consolation is that the day may never come when Nigerian democracy will be black-listed by the international community as a lost cause simply because Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, the largest market in the continent, a country whose geo-political importance has direct bearing on the stability of the West African sub-region. Where then does that leave the endless talk in this country, about reforms, legacy and institutions?
Which takes us immediately to Adamawa State, Nigeria where a show of shame was enacted on Saturday by a certain Hudu Yunusa Ari, adult, male, and Resident Electoral Commissioner of Adamawa State who engaged in a violent act of breach of public peace by disrupting the collation of the results of the supplementary Gubernatorial election in Adamawa state in a criminal and roguish manner. It would be recalled that INEC had declared the Gubernatorial election in Adamawa State of March 18, 2023 inconclusive due to issues in Fufore Local Government, which caused much furore, and on the ground that the number of cancelled votes exceeded the margin of lead between the People’s Democratic Party candidate, incumbent Governor Ahmadu Fintiri and the closest challenger, Aishatu Dahiru of the All Progressives’ Congress. By 9 am on Sunday, April 16, collation officers and the returning officers at the State Collation Centre in Yola, the state capital had announced the results from 10 of the affected LGAS, with Fintiri, the PDP candidate leading with a wide margin. The Returning Officer then announced a recess for a continuation of collation and further announcement of results to re-commence by 11 am.
But before that advertised time of resumption, the State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) reportedly came into the centre and holding a handwritten note, without announcing any outstanding collated results, proceeded to announce Aisha Dahiru of the APC as the winner of the Gubernatorial election in Adamawa State. This threw the collation centre into confusion as party agents asked: How? Within a short while, the Gubernatorial candidate of the APC, Aisha Dahiru, popularly known as Binani, acting on this development, immediately gave an acceptance speech. INEC would later declare REC Hudu Yunusa Ari’s action “null, void and of no effect”. INEC said it would address the matter and asked the state REC, the Hudu Yunusa Ari man and the state Returning Officer, Professor Mele Lamido to report to the INEC Headquarters in Abuja. Yesterday, INEC directed that Hudu Yunusa-Ari should stay away from INEC office until further notice, and that Adamu Gujungu, administrative secretary in Adamawa should take charge of the office with immediate effect. The suspension of Hudu Yunusa-Ari does not go far enough. His rogue conduct must be addressed fully in accordance with the law. His behaviour amounts to impunity, criminality, desperation and such brazenness that deserves closer investigation. This is not a matter that can be swept under the carpet, because it is a mockery not just of the Adamawa supplementary election but of the entire electoral process. It provides strong justification for those who hold the view that this has been a shambolic event.
Hudu Yunusa-Ari was required to report to the INEC headquarters. If he has not done so, he should be declared a wanted person by the security agencies immediately! By INEC’s own declaration, he broke the law. One, the Electoral Act of 2022 grants specific powers to the Returning Officer as the official who is empowered to collate and announce results - see Section 64 (4) and (5). Indeed, Section 65 of the same Act uses the phrase “shall be final” with regard to the “decision of the Returning Officer on any question related to ballot papers and the declaration of results. Section 66 provides further specificity as regards the declaration of results, vested as it were in the person of “the appropriate returning officer”. The now suspended Adamawa Resident Electoral Commissioner not being the RO, knowingly violated the law. He should be made to face the full wrath of the law.
In Part VII of the Electoral Act, dealing with Electoral Offences, specific penalties are prescribed to deal with “dereliction of duty” in Section 120 (1 -6) where strong penalties are provided in Section 120(4) which states that “Any person who announces or publishes an election result knowing same to be false or which is at variance with the signed certificate of return commits an offence and is liable on conviction or imprisonment for a term of 36 months.” Sections 120 (5) and (6) also prescribe imprisonment for a term of three years. The indicted REC must be subjected to thorough investigation. Did he collude with others? Was he induced? Is he part of a ring of conspiracy? There have been allegations that sums running into about N2 billion exchanged hands. Really? Two, Yunusa-Ari’s disruptive and disorderly conduct is also questionable under Section 249 of the Criminal Code. His illegal declaration of Aisha Dahiru as winner threw Adamawa state and the entire country into a state of anxiety and confusion. Aggrieved persons in the state descended on the two INEC National commissioners who had been sent to oversee the Adamawa process. One of them was brutalized. The other, Professor Abdullahi Abdu Zuru, a former Vice Chancellor of Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto was beaten and stripped naked with blood streaming down his body. It was a case of mistaken identity. His assailants thought he was the REC that made the illegal announcement. While we do not recommend jungle justice, the attack on innocent Professor Zuru is most unfortunate. INEC has asked the security agencies to identify the assailants and bring them to book, but INEC needs to learn a lesson from here: the need to protect its officials, and pay more attention to their personal security.
The unmasking of rogue elements like the embattled Adamawa REC should also point to something else. INEC officials on the field during elections must be subjected to routine alcohol and psychiatric tests. This is the strongest plausible response to Hudu Yunusa-Ari’s behaviour. What worsens the entire matter in our view is that he was reportedly accompanied on his unholy mission by the Adamawa state Commissioner of Police and other policemen. In other words, the illegality was committed in the presence of law enforcement officers! Nigeria is one country where those who are supposed to enforce the law do not know the laws of the land! The Inspector General of Police had promised that the police will live up to expectations during the supplementary elections on April 15. Your guess is as good as mine. The least that the IGP can do is to ask the Police Command in Adamawa to produce their friend, the now suspended Resident Electoral Commissioner! Going forward, much better attention must be paid to the recruitment of persons for electoral duties. The INEC Chairman before the election had said that RECs, Collation Officers and Returning Officers were expected to be non-partisan, that is neutral, in the discharge of their responsibilities. They even swore on oath to that effect. Nigeria’s 2023 elections coincided with the Holy Month of Lent (Christian) and Ramadan (Muslim), and yet in the same season, the country has witnessed so much corruption and dishonesty.
Mrs Aishatu Dahiru should not have delivered that acceptance speech of shame, knowing the motivation for it to be of dubious extraction. Nigerians would be excited to have a female Governor who contests and wins an election, but that must be through fair and square means, not by ambush or fraudulent means. She owes the people of Adamawa an explanation and an apology. Many others, including Festus Keyamo, SAN jumped the gun. I have expressed the shock that more than a day after the faux pas, Keyamo, an officer in the temple of justice, was yet to take down his twitter post on the Adamawa election. The ball is now squarely in INEC’s court to ensure that the process in Adamawa’s supplementary election is concluded and that due process runs its complete course in a just manner. The big ogre in all this is how corruption is at the core of the Nigerian character from politics to catering business.
The “Obidients” – supporters of the mission and vision of Mr. Peter Obi, candidate of the Labour Party in Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election had it coming. And now they are getting their “comeuppance” served in flagellating doses, from Professor Wole Soyinka, grandmaster in the art of dissent, debate and reasoning who has all it takes to sustain an intellectual fight in the public arena. In two high-profile television interviews in recent weeks - Channels TV and Arise News, and two published commentaries: “Media Responsibility” and “Fascism on Course”, Professor Wole Soyinka has reacted robustly to what he describes as a predilection for fascism on the part of the “Obidients.” Fascism also means dictatorship, tyranny, autocracy, intolerance, the unwillingness to entertain the other view, the tendency to assume that one’s opinion is supreme and superior and that other human beings do not matter. Remember Hitler. Think Italy’s Benito Mussolini. Fascists simply want to have their way no matter what others think or suggest.
The catalyst for President Wole Soyinka’s intervention was an interview on Channels TV by the Vice-Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the course of which he said that it would be unconstitutional to swear in the President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu on May 29, 2023, and that doing so would “signal the end of democracy.” Soyinka upbraided Datti Baba-Ahmed for saying uncomplimentary things about the Nigerian judiciary in a subsequent interview with Channels TV and cautioned against the resort to the use of words that smack of fascism. Indeed, he pointed out that he had advised Peter Obi that if he lost the election, it would be partly because of those persons called “Obidients”. He went further to advise Datti Ahmed to desist from “television tirade of intimidation.” I would ordinarily think that this should not have generated any drama. What Soyinka said simply is that nobody should be a judge in his own cause or dictate to the judiciary.
Every elementary student of law must have heard of the maxim: nemo judex in causa sua. Following the February 25 Presidential election which Obi and Datti Ahmed claimed they and their party, the Labour Party won, they have since gone to court to file a petition. It amounts to contempt of court to even attempt to comment on the matter that has been handed over to the courts to determine. Besides when Datti Baba-Ahmed said it would be un-constitutional or undemocratic to swear in the President-elect on May 29, he missed the point. The current President’s tenure, after the maximum limit of two terms guaranteed by the 1999 Constitution, ends on May 29. The law does not allow him to stay a day longer. The Constitution does not provide for a vacuum either. The only legitimate concern that has been raised is the suggestion by Olisa Agbakoba SAN that election disputes should be concluded, before inauguration as is the case in other countries, especially Kenya. While there are many who would share this view, the truth is that the current system in Nigeria makes that difficult.
Agbakoba says the judiciary should be pro-active and adopt methods of arbitration and deal swiftly with constitutional and technical issues within seven days. The Nigerian judicial system is not structured to be pro-active. It works at snail speed in the best of circumstances. The courts are over-burdened. The judges are overworked and they do not have enough support systems. Lawyers are never in a hurry. In election matters, they would depend on the time limitations provided for in Section 285 (6) of the 1999 Constitution. Where we are today is an improvement in the adjudication of election matters; it used to take up to three years to resolve an election dispute.
The best that can be proposed is a further amendment of the Constitution with regard to the handling of election cases. It doesn’t require much intelligence therefore to see that a new administration would be inaugurated on May 29, and while the cases at the tribunals and courts continue, new persons would have settled into office. The real issue is that the power of incumbency would have shifted and the new persons in office would use it to their own advantage. There is so much tension in the land also because Nigerians do not trust the judiciary. They have seen too many cases of how the courts determined election petitions in a manner that caused confusion. In this country, a man once became a Governor of a state without going through the process. He didn’t even print posters not to talk of campaigning. In this same country, a man who did not take part in party primaries was declared a candidate and he got re-elected to the Senate. Is it not in this same country that the Supreme Court ruled that someone who came fourth in a gubernatorial election was the winner? The bigger irony is that many Nigerians now regard the judiciary as a truly Nigerian space where anything is possible beyond the facts and the law.
The sub-text of Soyinka’s intervention, as I see it, was to remind everyone of basic principles, an instruction in the values of order, justice, and the importance of institutions. Those who seek justice should not defeat the same purpose by dictating what kind of justice suits them, and insist solely on their view of the coin. Mr. Peter Obi, the LP Presidential candidate had always insisted that he has strong faith in the judicial process and he is committed to exploring every legal and constitutional means to “reclaim what he calls “his stolen mandate”. Indeed, on one occasion, Mr Obi in an interview on Arise TV tried to make a distinction between Obidients and members of the Labour Party when he pointed out that there are many Obidients who are not members of the Labour Party and that not all party members are Obidients, which I understood to mean that he, as a person does not dictate to Obidients, even if he is the rallying point for the aspirations of the group, made up mostly of young, angry Nigerians who want change, a transition away from the old political order, and who consider Peter Obi’s political philosophy a good expression of those aspirations. They galvanized momentum and passion around Peter Obi and the Labour Party in the last elections.
Professor Wole Soyinka has spoken about his preference for a third force, a fresh option which may well be represented by Peter Obi, and so you could say he is one of those persons who consider Peter Obi a possibility. His only complaint was about the intolerance and the fascism of Obidients. Any close watcher of the political scene would recall how Obidients in the lead up to the elections, took over the social media. They deployed vitriol, abuse, intimidation, harassment. Anyone who disagreed with them was insulted and disparaged. Opposition spokespersons soon labelled them “Obidiots”. But they were combat-ready. And it is that same combative spirit that they have taken to Professor Wole Soyinka’s door step. The old sage has refused to be intimidated. He says “Obidients is one of the most repulsive, off-putting concoctions I ever encountered in any political arena.” He accuses them of projecting their disdain for “corrective criticism” as a badge of honour and certificate of commitment… rabid parochial minds of easy excitation, the tyranny of the ignorant, and the opportunism of time-servers… living in a world of false mythologies.” This is not flattering at all, but the Obidients asked for it.
Their response to Professor Soyinka was bound to get them such whiplash. Some of the responses on social media and elsewhere have been so discourteous and rude. In this season of reckless conduct, people hide under the anonymity that social media offers and heap abuse on persons whose shoe lace they cannot ever hope to tie. Even the more direct and open responses have been shocking. Charly Boy, “Area Fada and an Obidient,” like many others told Professor Soyinka: “You can’t be compared with Chinua Achebe”. Please what has Chinua Achebe got to do with this matter? Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA), through Emmanuel Onwubiko wrote that Soyinka “should stop siding with the oppressors and tyrants.” Could that be Onwubiko speaking for himself for it would be most strange for a body like HURIWA to accuse Soyinka of supporting tyrants when that is the same tendency that he deplores? Then of course, I saw a comment by Daniel Bwala, spokesperson of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) asking that Professor Soyinka should have a debate with Chimamanda Adichie. Bwala can claim his right to free speech, but he is at best a busy-body in this instance. Yusuf Tanko, the chief spokesperson of the Labour Party had already addressed the matter when he responded to Professor Soyinka’s invitation of Datti Baba-Ahmed to a debate. He said the Labour Party’s vice-presidential candidate declines the invitation for political and cultural reasons. Before nko? It would be foolhardy for Datti Ahmed to go into a debate with a man of Soyinka’s stature. What I find surprising in all of this however, is a certain Easter message attributed to Mr. Peter Obi in which he talked about “orchestrated efforts to demarket and delegitimize the OBIdient movement.” Is that a veiled attack on Professor Wole Soyinka? So far, Mr Obi has maintained his cool in the political arena, he should not allow himself to be hijacked by an emerging “personality cult.”
But isn’t this a sign of the times though? It is not only Obidients that are in a foul mood. The triumphant members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are not better. They in fact have a much larger tendency for fascism that is frightening, and the real fear is that when these persons get to the corridors of power, their arrogance and imperialism would know no bounds. While the Obidients scream on social media, the BATists, that is the supporters and spokespersons of the APC and President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu shoot from the hips on all platforms. Before and after the elections, they have been on the offensive, making it seem as if they have won a war, and must gather prisoners and shoot them down. They act based on suspicion. They respond to every little comment. They are quick to do the dirty job on their principal’s behalf, victory has become their aphrodisiac. It does not matter to them that the February 25 Presidential election is now a matter before the election petition tribunal. They openly taunt the opposition to go to court, giving the impression that nothing unfavourable to their party and candidate would come out of there.
Their latest target is Chimamanda Adichie, the distinguished, internationally acclaimed writer, who sent a letter to President Joe Biden on the Nigerian elections, in which she condemned the Nigerian electoral process, and accused the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of being compromised. The attack launched by spokespersons and supporters of the APC on Chimamanda Adichie must be quite shocking to her. She has been accused of being a tribal bigot, an Obidient, supporting a former Governor of her state, and an unpatriotic Nigerian maligning her country. And how dare she report Nigeria, a sovereign state to Joe Biden? The APC attack team has also sent letters to the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Canada to debunk Ms. Adichie’s reflections on the 2023 election. One commentator, Femi Fani-Kayode to be specific, dismissed her letter as a “boring epistle of dishonest garbage” – except that Adichie is incapable of writing garbage! She has also been accused of colonial mentality and sedition, with calls that she should be sued. President Biden has been advised to ignore her. Ms. Adichie wrote: “Congratulating the election’s outcome, President Biden tarnishes America’s self-proclaimed commitment to democracy. Please do not give the sheen of legitimacy to an illegitimate process. The United States should be what it says it is.” Unlike Professor Wole Soyinka, Chimamanda Adichie has not responded to the backlash that she got. She obviously thinks silence is the best answer for the APC crowd.
Thus, within the same period two prominent Nigerian writers, Soyinka and Adichie being attacked for expressing views about the conduct of politics and political players in Nigeria. Both the elder and the younger writer are drawing attention to omissions that could have far-reaching implications. Their mode of intervention may differ, but in truth, they are both concerned about the health of our nation, and the character of the political class. Soyinka is a national treasure, a global humanist and one of the best thinkers of the century. Ms. Adichie is one of Nigeria’s great ambassadors on the world stage with her contributions to culture, literature and knowledge. Writers are the conscience of the nation. Their job is to speak truth to power, shape public thought, create a current of ideas, no matter whose ox is gored. Soyinka is the elder statesman calling for restraint. Ms Adichie expresses the feelings of many of her generation who feel disappointed by the 2023 election. Critical as her piece may seem, she has not said anything that is not out there in public. It would be wrong to assume that only persons inside Nigeria or who voted during the elections are entitled to comment on the outcome. It is not even a sin for writers or any citizens at all to hold political beliefs. What is objectionable is the growing drift towards fascism in Nigeria’s political space. It reflects a culture of intolerance that erodes the tenets of democracy and human freedom.
Beyond all the expectations about the immediate future of Nigeria, it must be possible to take our country back from the fringes of despair, hate and division to which it has been driven by the recent elections. It must be possible again to have healthy, open and decent conversations in the public sphere. This calls for leadership, restraint, and above all wisdom.
“My man, are you sure we are in the Holy Month, because I am not understanding anymore? There is so much tension in the country on all fronts.”
“Of course, it is the Holy Month. Two days ago, it was Palm Sunday, a significant moment in the Christian community’s observance of Lent, when Christians fast for 40 days and 40 nights, and take on Christ-like conduct and virtues and seek the eye of God. Muslims are also in the Ramadan season, the Holy Month. Both religions preach friendship, understanding, kindness towards the poor, sacrifice and the spirit of sharing and giving. A few days earlier, there was so much talk about traditional worshippers, especially in Lagos state, talking about rituals, placement of sacrificial offerings at crossroads, and yet you say there is so much tension in the country.”
“You have not answered my question. What I know is that every day, Nigerians mouth the mantra that we all worship the same God and that we are all children of God, whoever and whatever we worship. But what I see is a country that has no fear of God. What people do is different from what they say! Religion has failed in this country. We should ban religion.”
“Hey Hey, calm down. Nobody has banned religion in Russia, China, United States or Cuba. Na here you want to ban religion?Human beings are by nature superstitious, but the problem we have in this country is that there is a gap between public morality and private morality. People go to church or the mosque but don’t be deceived, they don’t care about values, they don’t give a damn about virtues, they go to church, the mosques and shrines, they claim we are all serving one God, but you can’t see a trace of it in their relationship with other human beings.”
“Free me. Tell me as you see it.”
“There is too much wawulence in the land.”
“Speak English. What is wawulence?”
“The language of persons with street credibility. Too much violence, verbal, physical and spiritual in the country of our birth, right now, today, everywhere. Too much ethnic and religious hate and bigotry. I think people are losing their minds because of the elections. And I think we need to remind ourselves that there is a country, and that the country is more important than individual ambitions and preferences.”
“Point of correction. There was a country.”
“There is a country. And there will still be a country. Can we all step out of the mass psychosis that we are dealing with?”
“The psychotics know themselves. The people who have turned election into a source of craze know themselves.”
“Yes. Like your friends in the All Progressives Congress (APC) who are now leaking Peter Obi’s telephone conversations, and who claim that he is trying to start a religious war by campaigning on the basis of ethnicity and religion, and they and their allies have put into circulation a doctored version of a telephone conversation between him and Bishop David Oyedepo. Their intent is to ridicule him and lower him in the estimation of serious-minded and reasonable people of society”.
“I don’t know who put out any audio conversation, doctored, not doctored. What I know is that there is so much hostility out there because of an election. In the first place, don’t believe everything that you see on social media. We are in the age of Artificial Intelligence, ChatGPT and all kinds of manipulations. You must always fact-check.”
“The Labour Party and the Obidients have confirmed that their candidate actually spoke with Bishop David Oyedepo except that the leaked audio is manipulated, fake, doctored. They say there is a plan to arrest Peter Obi for treasonable felony”
“Nobody is above the law. But is that how people are arrested? The people that should be arrested are the people who leaked the phone call between two persons. It is a violation of Section 37 of the 1999 Constitution and all other relevant laws on data protection, consumer protection and freedom of information. People have the right to privacy. That is why there is something called lawyer-client, doctor-patient privilege and confidentiality. If people are allowed to go about leaking other people’s private conversations, society will be ruined. Imagine someone for example, hacking into your conversation with your female friends, and sending same to your wife and other girlfriends, you would have instant chaos in your life. Your life expectancy will reduce.”
“That is a wrong analogy. I am a straight and decent man. I am not even a card-carrying politician. But someone told me that we have the right to know everything about people in the public domain, and that it is a good thing to leak everything about politicians.”
“I know what you are saying. Volenti non fit inuria. That is the principle. It does not apply here though. Even politicians have rights. In any case, in the so-called released audio conversation, I don’t see anything that is wrong. People are just making a mountain out of a mole-hill. Politicians all over the world play to their base, they mobilise their base, they reach out to persons of influence. Peter Obi calling Bishop Oyedepo, a man of great influence and asking him for support for whatever reason is not an issue. It does not amount to calling for a religious war. It is perfectly within his right to seek celebrity endorsement. In any case, Bishop Oyedepo has shaken it all off. Did you listen to his riposte? He is a man of God. He advises everyone that seeks his counsel, whether they take it or not. Has anybody queried why in the last elections, Muslim clerics supported the Muslim-Muslim ticket? Have they looked for conversations between Muslim candidates and Muslim leaders? Look, the election is over, people who are aggrieved should go to court. The various spokespersons who have been exchanging vitriol over nothing should go and look for work. You can’t be a spokesperson for another man permanently. Get busy. Election don finish oh! Boys! Move on!”
“I hear people are looking for appointments, especially within the APC, and that the President-elect is already putting together a team. He is building a team.”
“You mean team-ship?”
“Yes, team-ship. Serious lobbying going on. The other day, it was Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi lobbying openly that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers must be given a core role in the Tinubu government. I hear some people are also already organizing civil society groups to say that they must be in the government. In fact, some men have since abandoned their wives and children and turned themselves into Tinubu’s handbags, struggling to make themselves useful. They are with him in France as we speak.”
“The things that hunger, greed and poverty will cause in this country will be serious. But truly, I don’t have a problem with the attempt to put a team together. Nigeria can no longer afford a ridiculous situation where a President would be sworn in and for six months, he would claim he is still looking for a team. No. There are urgent matters ahead. The President must hit the ground running. As long as he recruits the best and the brightest, not mediocres, not IOU-seekers, opportunists, habitual drunkards, and second-rate clowns in the corridors of power, I don’t have a problem with that.”
“Who is a second-rate clown? A clown is a clown”
“I know what I am saying. Some first-rate clowns in this country are educated billionaires. Don’t force me to mention names. If you must recruit a court jester, at least get the good ones. We have had too many jesters running the Nigerian government.”
“But people say Tinubu should wait till the dispute around the Presidential election is resolved.”
“There is nothing in our laws that says so. Section 285 of the 1999 Constitution provides very strict timelines for election petitions. Lawyers exploit this. They will stretch the matter with every possible trick. By May 29, Tinubu would be sworn in. The process has started. He will promptly announce a Cabinet and activate Section 5 of the 1999 Constitution which grants him extensive executive powers to appoint and disappoint. Within a week, a full government would be up and running. You can keep talking to the courts!”
“I don’t think that is right”
“It is not a matter of what you think. It is what the law makes possible.”
“We have to change the law. All election disputes must be finalized before inauguration. The Uwais Commission made such a recommendation. We must go back to it. That is what they do in Kenya and other places. Now I understand why some people are calling for an Interim National Government and why one man tried to stop a commercial plane from flying and threatened that there will be no Presidential inauguration on May 29.”
“I hope you also understand that the Department of State Services, and other security agencies have made it clear that anybody who tries to subvert the state, will be made to face the full wrath of the law. Nobody should test the patience of the state-qua-state. Be careful. I won’t make a case for you.”
“I don’t make trouble with anybody. I have enough issues of my own. I mind my business. I only discuss politics when we are together like this. I raise questions. I am not likely to go on television like Datti Baba-Ahmed to say any attempt to swear in Tinubu would signal the end of democracy, and then get a TV station fined. I will not board a plane like that Obiajulu man and say there will be no inauguration on May 29. I will not act like the Eze Ndigbo of Ajao estate and proclaim that Igbos in Lagos will invite IPOB to Lagos to defend Igbo properties and investments. But we have to understand the context and understand that people are angry.”
“You know I know what you mean by context”
“Yes”
“Eluu Pee”
“Yes Daddy”
“Obi Nwannem”
“Yes Daddy”
“Obi Kererenke, Obi oh”
“Yes Daddy”
“Whoever is not happy, go to Court and fact-check”
“But you know why we are having these issues, because the people do not trust the courts. Not even that musician called Portable, Habeeb Okikiola. When the police went to arrest him, after several invitations and he had snubbed them, he told them that he is a government liability, a celebrity, a Baboon, who belongs to the zoo. Zazuh zeh! That is how many Nigerians behave. They don’t trust the system.”
“But I hope you know what has now happened to him?”
“What happened to the Omo Ijoba himself?”
“You don’t read the news.? On Friday, he was arrested by the police, and told in clear terms that being a celebrity does not confer any constitutional immunity on him, and that he is truly a government liability and not an asset. He spent the weekend in a police cell in Abeokuta. Yesterday, he was arraigned in a Magistrate Court in Ifo, Ogun State where he was slammed with a three-count charge, and remanded in Ilaro prison until he discharges his bail terms.”
“Nigeria is a wicked place to aspire to be anything.”
“No. Obey the law. The same Portable that was boasting that he is a Baboon. He has been told now that Baboons in the zoo are kept in cages, and he has been kept behind bars accordingly. I hope they lock him up with very gluttonous mosquitoes. In fact, I suspect they did. He was looking very contrite in court. A se ko ti e le. Him no get liver. Egungun better be careful! This is why everybody should be calm. After the elections, everyone should learn to be calm.”
“Make we calm, make we calm down. But there is a way this country also gets on your nerves. People are reacting in their own ways. Look at Rivers state, lawyers who went to Port Harcourt for election matters were arrested and detained, and the materials in their possession were seized. That is enough to make anybody angry.”
“They have been released.”
“So. But a point has been made. Whoever wants to challenge the election results in Rivers State is not welcome and you know what happened on February 25 and March 18 in that state and after the elections, parties across the country have been suspending key officials of their parties from the Peoples’ Democratic Party in Benue, the Labour Party in Edo State to the APC in Delta, Kwara, Bauchi and Zamfara States. Some people are just determined to heat up the polity.”
“I am sure if you check the stories from those states very well, you’d see that for the most part, it is mainly about disagreement over ego, stomach infrastructure, and nothing about Nigeria and its future.”
“Even when people try to fight for the future, they are not allowed. I am sure you know that is the way we are.”
“You tell me.”
“Take Kano State.”
“What about Kano State?”
“Earlier on, we discussed Tinubu getting ready for the future, you said that was right. In Kano, Governor-elect, Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has issued two advisories. On March 30, he issued an advisory on ongoing constructions in the state in public spaces and urged that they should be stopped until the incoming administration assumes office. On March 31, he issued another advisory to say that no financial institution should grant any loans to Kano State because the in-coming administration will not honour such loans. He has been told he is jumping the gun. Governor Ganduje has told him that he is still in charge until May 29. I don’t understand this country. We are a nation of hypocrites and double standards.”
“To be fair, the Governor-elect of Kano State does not yet have the imprimatur of the law. He is not yet a constituted authority”
“Is Tinubu a constituted authority?”
“It is not the same thing. The comparison is off-key.”
“This is the problem then. How can we have a proper country when Nigerians have over 200 million opinions on any subject under the sun and the country’s population itself is over 200 million!”
“I don’t have an answer to that.”
“I’d be surprised if anybody does.”
The prevalence of the comic spirit is one of those distinctive features of Nigerian life and society – one of those things that make us who we are – our capacity to turn every season, every occasion, serious, not so serious, even sombre, into an opportunity for mirth, that is - plain rambunctious, defiant or deprecating laughter. In my earlier life as a teacher of comic theory, it was an interesting time teaching the special veins of wit and humour and how the aesthetics of laughter defines national character and culture, a people’s capacity for word-play, and satire or parody. This trend, embodied in the Nigerian character, North or South, East to West is in part responsible even in an electronic age, for the fantastic humour that Nigerians create on social media. There was so much of this on display during the recent Nigerian election and indeed perhaps, a documentation of the process would be incomplete without recalling some of the highlights of the humour that marked it, from the macabre to the grotesque, the irrational to the verbal magic of some of the key political players and their supporters. This account is merely representative; it is by no means exhaustive.
The place to begin is the verbal gem that the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, then an aspirant, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu dropped in Abeokuta on June 2, 2022 when he used certain words which may well end up as part of Nigeria’s political lexicon viz: “Emilokan. Literally, the Yoruba word means “it is my turn” or “I’m next”. Asiwaju Tinubu had categorically told his audience that it was his turn to become President of Nigeria, having helped the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari to gain power. Highly rated as a kingmaker in Nigeria’s power politics, Tinubu on that occasion announced that the kingmaker was tired of anointing others, he would rather ascend the throne personally. He was firm, assertive and throughout the season that followed, he did not waver despite criticisms that his was an expression of a sense of entitlement and disregard for the right of the electorate to choose. Tinubu’s supporters felt inspired by his confidence. To illustrate his determination, Tinubu said when Buhari failed thrice to become Nigeria’s President – O lu le, once, twice, thrice, he was the one who told the President to wipe his tears, and he helped him in 2015 to achieve his dream. In other words, the auto-suggestion by the APC Presidential aspirant was that it was pay-back time – one good turn, as the cliché states, deserves another. He wanted his goodwill reciprocated. If anyone was in any doubt, Tinubu turned towards the sitting Governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun and told his audience that even “Eleyi” (This One) could not have been Governor without him.
The three phrases in Yoruba and the underlying rhetoric captured public imagination and caught on like wildfire. Musicians in various genres have turned Emilokan into lyrics – each singer adapting the phrase to suit his or her taste and creativity. The National Association of Seadogs – the Pyrates Confraternity, during the group’s 70th celebration in September 2022 came up with an adaptation of the Emilokan phrase in a highly personal, satirical song. Professor Wole Soyinka, father-figure of the Confraternity dismissed the song as distasteful. In a subsequent statement, the group said it was not out to mock or discriminate against the subject and that it was apolitical. The apology was rather late. Disc jockeys, musicians, notably the Afro-beat singer, Dede Mabiaku had done their own re-mix versions of the song. Several other remixes also showed up on social media platforms. But as many would recall, Tinubu’s Emilokan turned out to be prophetic. Days after the Abeokuta incident, he went on to win his party’s primaries in Abuja scoring 1, 271 votes. He defeated 13 other contestants, with some of the original total of 23 aspirants stepping down for him before the commencement of voting. The closest person to him – Rotimi Amaechi then Minister of Transportation scored 316 votes! Tinubu also received the endorsement of President Muhammadu Buhari who raised his hand at several campaign rallies and who voted for him on February 25, enthusiastically showing off his ballot paper to prove that he voted for the APC, even if that gesture amounted to a violation of the Electoral Act 2022. Asiwaju Tinubu was later declared winner of the Presidential election by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) with 8, 794, 726 votes, beating 17 other candidates. Four political parties – PDP, LP, AA and APM and their candidates have since gone to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal to challenge the results.
Anyone who in interested in a position now borrows the phrase - Emilokan in the hope that just as Asiwaju Tinubu willed his ambition into reality, their own dreams would also come to pass. The other day, the Senate Chief Whip, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, freshly re-elected (Abia North) generated not a little laughter when he too announced that it is now his turn, and the turn of his village, Igbere, to produce the next Senate President of Nigeria. Our democracy is now becoming “turn by turn” but let’s see if the Emilokan magical word would work for Senator Kalu. In Ogun State, Tinubu’s host who was called “Eleyi” (This One) has been re-elected. Prince Abiodun can now confidently say that he is more than an “Eleyi” in Ogun State, having secured a second term without any Godfather pulling all the strings for him.
Next to Tinubu’s verbal inventiveness would be the memorable exertions of the Governor of Rivers state, Nyesom Wike and his colleague-PDP -Governors – Samuel Ortom (Benue), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) who took a principled stand that it was the turn of the South to produce Nigeria’s next President, and that it was wrong for their party to have elected a Presidential candidate from the North, and also the Chairman of the party from the North in the person of Senator Iyorchia Ayu. They wanted Ayu to step down as party Chairman at the minimum pre-condition for dialogue. The party refused. Wike was accused of sour grapes, having lost his bid to be the party’s Presidential standard bearer at the primaries. The G-5, as the group was known stood its ground. It later expanded into a bigger body known as the Integrity Group. Publicly, they taunted the PDP and their presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. Wike, the obvious leader and main spirit openly identified with members of the APC and Labour Party. Whereas he invited members of those two parties to Rivers State to commission projects and treated them to generous receptions, he snubbed the PDP candidate and members of his own party at the state level who were pro-Atiku.
He made it clear that he would only support the PDP in the state elections, and that he and his colleagues in G-5 would not leave the party. Daniel Bwala, PDP Presidential Council spokesperson derisively referred to the G-5 as the Jackson 5. Other PDP spokespersons – Aare Dele Momodu and Senator Dino Melaye were also convinced that the PDP would not be affected at the polls by the G-5 rebellion. In the just concluded general elections, the PDP paid heavily for this disunity within its ranks. On February 25, it lost in states where it should ordinarily have won because the five Governors did not lift a finger to help their own party’s Presidential candidate. In Enugu, Abia and Benue the PDP Governors lost their bids to go to the Senate- in a karmic sense perhaps. In Oyo State on March 18, Governor Seyi Makinde, also of the G5 survived and was re-elected; in Rivers, Governor Wike fulfilled his promise of installing his own successor (a puppet?) although other parties in that election insist that what happened in Rivers state was not an election.
Before, during and after the election, the G5 would be remembered for introducing to the grammar of politics a song titled: “As e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem.” It is a triumphal song of defiance and self-assertion. Wike gained much attention with his unique style of dancing to this song and with his usual riposte: “Enough is Enough”. When the dust settles, Wike will not be forgotten for his many colourful displays, sometimes bordering on the farcical and the grotesque. For example, drinking a 40-year-old bottle of whiskey at 11. 30 am and boasting that he would even drink a 50-year-old bottle. Rotimi Amaechi who originally accused Wike of using state resources to consume alcohol has not said anything further on that matter. Any other response has been swallowed! Wike’s response of course would probably be: “As e dey pain dem, he go dey sweet us”. This line has gained currency across the country. When Alex Otti was declared winner of the gubernatorial election in Abia State, after a suspension of the collation of results to resolve alleged irregularities in Obingwa LGA, his supporters trooped to the streets in jubilation. One of the songs on their lips was: “as e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem.” Nigerians have not heard the last of that song.
Yet another creative figure on the scene is the current Governor of Osun State, Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP. The Osun Gubernatorial election was held on July 16, 2022, and he was declared winner. The APC challenged the victory at the State Election Petition Tribunal. The three-man panel at that Tribunal upturned the election, and handed victory to former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC. Adeleke and the PDP promptly filed an appeal at the Court of Appeal, which has now ruled in favour of Adeleke, upholding his victory. The APC has vowed to go all the way to the Supreme Court. A major thing in Nigeria today is to tell aggrieved election losers to go to Court! Governor Adeleke says he is confident that the Supreme Court would rule in his favour. With Seyi Makinde of Oyo state having joined the G5, and former Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti aligned with the same group, the lot fell on Adeleke of Osun State to lead the PDP in the South West. On February 25, he won Osun State for Atiku. On March 18, the PDP further won 25 out of the 26 seats in the Osun State House of Assembly, losing only in Boripe/Boluwaduro LGA where former Governor Oyetola hails from. But what is most noteworthy about Governor Adeleke is his passion for dancing. He became popular as a Senator of the Federal Republic for his dancing prowess. He and his erstwhile colleague, Dino Melaye turned dancing into a tool of political communication. I have it on good authority that the first day he reported for duty as Governor, the civil servants of Osun asked him to dance for them.
The Osun State Election Petition Tribunal in the lead judgement delivered by Justice Terse Kume, in fact mocked him for always dancing to “Buga” – the song by Kiss Daniel. The Court of Appeal through Justice Mohammad Shuaibu while acknowledging that a judge can speak “obiter” was however of the view that this comment by the lower court was “uncalled for”. The truth is that Governor Adeleke loves to dance. He has even added drumming to it. There is a video in circulation showing him, in the company of others, drumming away with a Bandiri local drum. When he came to The Morning Show (TMS) on Arise TV on Monday, March 27, I had raised the question about dancing and drumming, and whether he is planning to launch a musical band, like his sons - B-Red and Sina Rambo - and his nephew, Davido. His response was that there is a time for everything, thus echoing Ecclesiastes 3: 1 – 11. He also quoted Shakespeare’s Macbeth. I was tempted to ask him to show our viewers a few dance steps. But I let him be. Without doubt, he will be noted for the colour lent to contemporary politics by him and the likes of Dino Melaye - who has since added acrobatic falls to his displays and who now says he wants to be the next Governor of Kogi State.
There is possibly no way I would leave out: “Eluu Pee 74, Eluu Pee 75, 76, 77, Obi 78, Kererenke 79, Obi 80, Obi Nwannem 81..” – a very catchy tune created by Mr. Kleb and Obidients to promote the Labour Party and its Presidential candidate, Peter Obi. The word is a play on the local, Igbo pronounciatiion of the 12th and 16th letters of the English alphabet. Turned into a song, it became an instant hit. The imitative pronounciation was not an issue but the sub-text, and in many instances, Obi’s supporters rounded up the Eluu Pee, antiphonal-responsorial with another song - “Obi kererenke, Obi”. This is an old folk song adapted with reverberating effect as Disc Jockeys and party members turned it into a popular song from Nigeria to Ghana, to Kenya. Peter Obi joined the Labour Party on May 27, 2022. In less than one year, he has transformed a hitherto marginal party into a vote-winning, game changer in Nigerian politics. This should be a useful case study for students of the making of political parties in Africa.
The general, on-cycle elections of 2023 have been concluded except in Kebbi and Adamawa states still declared inconclusive and a few outstanding constituencies in the National Assembly, and over 100 election petitions already filed but one remaining highlight is how the candidate of the PDP, Pastor Umo Eno won the Gubernatorial election in Akwa Ibom State by promising the people: “Happy Hour,” every Friday. His promise is that every Friday, selected restaurants and bars in the state would serve the people food and drinks at a subsidized rate to make the people happy. In his acceptance speech after his declaration as Governor-Elect his key message to the people was: “Happy Hour is Here”. It has been reported that indeed, last Friday, even without a formal take-over as Governor, a “serve them round”, “come and eat”, Happy Hour was declared in the state with people enjoying pepper soup, edikang ikong, tombo and other delicacies at cheaper rates. Pastor Eno has a programme of action called “Arise Agenda” but he has successfully found his way to Government House by grabbing the people through their stomachs. Can he sustain it? How would he ensure fairness, equity and transparency? And would Akwa Ibom close its borders every Friday, because if the “food is ready” programme is sustained, no one should rule out the possibility of people in neighbouring states and even farther away showing up on Fridays in Akwa Ibom. We are effectively in the season of hunger, hypocrisy and political opportunism.
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Nigerians looked forward to their just concluded State elections – Gubernatorial and State Houses of Assembly - held on Saturday March 18, with fervent hope that their expectations would be met. They had managed to survive the Presidential and National Assembly elections of February 25 which resulted in controversy, protests, and two of the major parties heading to the Presidential Election Tribunal to challenge the process and the declaration of the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President-elect. Both local and international observers, with the striking exception of Federal Government spokespersons – Alhaji Lai Mohammed and Mallam Garba Shehu and of course, APC supporters, had dismissed the election as “flawed”, “far short of international standards.” The Presidential candidates of the PDP- Atiku Abubakar and the Labour Party – Peter Obi called for the cancellation of the Presidential election.
In general, questions were raised about the failure of INEC to abide by enabling laws and its own regulations and guidelines, the failure in particular of the Bimodal Voters’ Accreditation System (BVAS), and INEC not keeping to its promise to upload results to its results viewing portal in real time; there were also challenges arising from voter intimidation and logistics, the dominance of ethnicity and religion as deciding factors, vote buying despite the scarcity of cash at the time due to the Central Bank’s Naira redesign policy, violence across many states – Lagos, Rivers, Taraba, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Kogi, Bayelsa, FCT, Enugu, Osun, Ondo and Ogun, the wanton violation of the law by prominent figures displaying their ballot papers at polling units. In that election, voting had to be rescheduled in 141 polling units in Bayelsa state, where BVAS machines had been carted away or materials did not arrive on time or not at all. The general word of advice to INEC is that it should address whatever technical glitches that affected the polls on February 25, and that the security agencies should improve on their performance. Public expectation was further raised by the fact that INEC approached the Court to reconfigure BVAS in readiness for the next elections and having been granted leave to do so, it subsequently postponed the state elections from March 11 to March 18, thus gaining more time. Indeed, INEC and the security agencies after a meeting of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security assured Nigerians that all would be well on March 18- a far more demanding election covering elections in 28 states, 1, 021 constituencies, and over 930 candidates.
Nigerians are incurable optimists, but their enthusiasm was subdued on March 18, as seen in the emergent reports of voter apathy and low voter turn-out. On the streets of Rivers state, young men chose to play football on the streets. In Yenagoa, Bayelsa people went to the markets as if there was no restriction of movement on election day. The observed shortcomings of the February 25 process robbed many of faith that their votes would count. Nevertheless, INEC officials arrived early in most parts of the country. Where voting commenced early, there were no reports of “big men” displaying their ballot papers. INEC also did a better job of uploading results to its portal, even if in other places, voters were told pointedly that there would be no uploading of results and that all results would be taken to the state collation centres. To be fair, the law does not expressly state how INEC should upload election results. However, in terms of general atmosphere and outcomes, during and after the voting, the March 18 elections were worse.
This has been attributed to the fact that the professional political class had seen how the political map of the country was significantly altered after the February 25 elections. Labour Party, a movement that had been revived only a few months earlier in 2022, won 36 seats in the House of Representatives, four seats in the Senate, and practically swept the polls in the South East. The Labour Party further accomplished the feat of beating the ruling APC in Lagos State, the stronghold of the APC Presidential candidate. Strong, established politicians were also defeated including Senator Philip Aduda who had been in the Senate for a record four terms, Senators Abubakar Bagudu, Gabriel Suswam, Tanko Al-Makura, Uche Ekwunife, Bala Ibn Na’Allah, Kabiru Gaya, Stella Oduah, Biodun Olujimi, Bashiru Ajibola. And in the House of Representatives – Hon. Ndudi Elumelu, Hon. Nkeruika Onyejeocha. These are political heavyweights but they were defeated. In addition, incumbent Governors seeking a trip to the Senate – the usual retirement, idling destination for former Nigerian Governors were disappointed: Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu); Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ben Ayade (Cross River) Abubakar Bagudu (Kebbi) Samuel Ortom (Benue), Simon Lalong (Plateau), and Darius Ishaku (Taraba). Ahead of the March 18 elections, President Buhari made it clear that there would be no such thing as the annulment of election as happened in 1993. Whoever is aggrieved should go to the courts. Nigerians have mixed feelings about the judiciary. The manner in which those who were declared winners trumpeted the phrase: “let us meet in court” further deepened suspicions.
Given this scenario, it turned out that politicians went to the March 18 polls with greater desperation. Nobody wanted to leave anything to chance. The received wisdom in Nigerian politics is that it is better to win by any means possible, collect the Certificate of Return and allow the aggrieved persons to complain and file petitions. By the way, it is not every loser in an election that would seek legal redress: lawyers don’t come cheap during election seasons in Nigeria! It is their own stomach infrastructure moment too. Hence, what we witnessed on March 18 in most parts of the country was war, with dosages of violence, death, pathos, and burlesque. Every identifiable bane of Nigerian politics was on full display. Violence - in Imo State, INEC officials were kidnapped, and later rescued, persons were killed in Gboko South LGA, Benue state, also in Ibiono Ibom, Akwa Ibom State, in Lagos, persons were killed, macheted, and journalists from Arise News, News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), AIT, and celebrities were brutalized by hoodlums and criminal gangs who took over the streets and threatened to harm anyone who voted for any party other than the ruling party.
In Rivers, gunmen invaded Elibrada Community in Emohua Local government, and killed three persons, two others were killed in Bori, Khana LGA. In the same Rivers state, the APC Campaign Director, Chisom Lennard was abducted and later shot dead in Ahoada West LGA. In Ebonyi, the state Chairman of the PDP was beaten to a state of coma. He died from injuries. Two persons were killed in Ethiope West, LGA, Delta State. By the morning of March 19, the media was reporting over 30 deaths. To win an election, those seeking leadership positions were ready to kill the same people they promised to serve! INEC and its officials and equipment were equally a special target: In Taraba, Lagos, Rivers, Kebbi, Benue, and Delta, BVAS machines were snatched, ballot boxes were either stolen and carted way or set ablaze as in the Ojo LGA of Lagos State. It must be added though that INEC officials have been accused of malpractices. In Owerri North LGA of Imo State and in parts of the North, INEC officials were caught helping to thumb-print ballot papers in favour of political parties of their choice. The reign of impunity has since continued. On Sunday evening, thugs invaded the LGA Collation Centre in Obingwa, Abia State. There was so much tension in Kano State, the state government had to declare a curfew yesterday. The people defied it. In Delta State, the collation of results was delayed because INEC officials had been held hostage in Ughelli North, allegedly on the orders of a powerful Gubernatorial candidate. After the announcement of the Gubernatorial result in Nasarawa state yesterday, people took to the streets in protest. Both the PDP and APGA in that state believe that the results were manipulated in favour of the APC.
Vote buying/Voter inducement: It has been reported that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) by March 18 had arrested more than 65 suspects involved in vote buying. The sad news is that in some of the states, cash was given out in the open, with policemen in attendance, looking the other way. The performance of the security agencies varied. The police were happy to be on duty. In fact, in some states, it was reported that they helped hoodlums to snatch ballot boxes. The Supreme Court had ruled that old redesigned notes should remain legal tender, and before March 18, the CBN had formally directed all deposit money banks to comply. Unlike February 25, there was money to go round on election day, March 18. Poverty became a stronger weapon in the hands of politicians. Voter suppression: this was also a big problem, what rankles was the brazenness and the variety of it. The most obvious was the deployment of criminal gangs in various parts of the country, especially Lagos, Rivers, and Delta. In Delta, there is a video of Mr. Fred Ajudua telling voters in Ibuzo: “If you are not voting PDP, stay in your house”. It was worse in Lagos where ahead of the election, traditional rulers in the state announced a traditional Oro festival, telling women and non-indigenes to stay indoors at certain hours. When public outcry made that impossible, thugs and touts were deployed to the streets to tell the people how to vote or face the consequences. On election day, the same thugs took charge. Polling units were relocated either to the main road where thugs could have easy access, or to traditional palaces. One traditional ruler locked the gates to his estate. In areas that had been identified as strongholds of the Labour Party on February 25, Igbos were prevented from voting. It was said that Lagos is for the indigenes, and that Igbo tenants and settlers should not think of dictating who becomes Governor in Lagos. It was absurd and crude. Yet, this election strategy has been defended by otherwise educated and intelligent people. My friend and brother, Femi Fani-Kayode has written a piece in which he says Lagos belongs to Yoruba people and Igbos should return to their own land. He even says Gbadebo Rhodes Vivour (Labour Party), a Yoruba, cannot be Governor in Yorubaland because his mother is Igbo. Coming from FFK, who defended Nnamdi Kanu, and who has four smart, good-looking sons from an Igbo woman, I can only say that I am flabbergasted. This is what politics does to us? Bayo Onanuga, co-founder and Managing Director of The News, former MD of NAN and seasoned journalist is an Ijebu-Ode man but working for APC, he has been arguing that he has no apologies for saying that Igbos should not interfere in Lagos politics. A settler in Lagos telling another settler to mind his business in Lagos?
But the part of the elections of March 18 that I found even more curious was the spiritual side of it. In Lagos, spirituality and occultism were thrown into the mix. How widespread this was may not be easy to establish but at least we can quote a few examples. In Lagos, there is a video in circulation showing some Lagos Chiefs at a shrine called “Oju Alale”, literally the shrine for the worship of the founders of the community, raining curses on Igbos in Lagos and praying for the incumbent Governor’s victory in the election. On election day, some cultists dressed in complete secret society habiliments were seen in Ikeja shouting “Agan o, Agan o” and warning non-indigenes not to vote foolishly. In Oyo state, members of a syncretic church were also shown raining incantations on a small ram and praying that Senator Teslim Folarin must win the Oyo State Gubernatorial election. Folarin did not win. I believe the remains of that ram ended up in the bellies of the Pastors. Only God knows how many animals lost their lives at ritual conclaves because Nigeria held an election in 2023.
I have tried, thus far, to document the highlights of March 18 for record purposes. But what next for Nigeria? I argued in this same space last week, that despite the avalanche of litigations that would arise, not much would change. Dr. Chidi Odinkalu says the next round of voting is by the judiciary. It is unfortunate that it is the judiciary that would determine a matter that should be the actual prerogative of the electorate. But given the nature of our election jurisprudence, the judiciary cannot cure all the ills that we have seen. Apparently, Nigerians have not learnt any lessons from the errors of the past. In 2007, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua publicly confessed that the 2007 process that brought him into power was flawed. He pledged to correct the situation. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan kept that promise in 2011, and again in 2015. Between then and now, all the gains have been erased, and we seem to have returned to the pre-1999 era. What is the way forward? One, the task of electoral reform is not yet over. It has just started. The emergence of the Electoral Act 2022 generated a lot of excitement but these elections have exposed many loopholes in it. It has to be reviewed.
Two, we are far from where we should be with regard to technology. BVAS, IREV sounded like nice phrases, but they triggered more problems. Is Nigeria ready for technology or we are just gambling? Three, the independence of the electoral body must be addressed. INEC’s integrity is a major issue today. Rotimi Amaechi, former Governor, and former Minister of Transportation has blown the whistle that the INEC Chair, Professor Yakubu Mahmood was nominated by someone close to the President-elect and that he once worked with Governor Wike at the Federal level. Wike probably knew this all along, but he is now speaking up because it is convenient for him to condemn the same government he served. What we can take from his protest is that going forward, INEC Chair, Commissioners, and Returning Officers should never be appointees or nominees of the ruling government and party. We have to go back to the Uwais Commission Report! Above all, electoral offenders must be punished. We must re-open the conversation about the need for an Electoral Offences Commission, passed by the Senate in July 2021, blocked by the House of Representatives. But now here we are, with thugs all over the place, from INEC officials to palaces, worship places, to social media, making Nigerian democracy a joke. And how can this country find healing and reconciliation after all the wounds inflicted on all fronts in this electoral season?
After the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections, now heavily disputed, Nigeria goes to the polls again on March 18, 2023 to elect Governors and members of state legislatures in 28 out of 36 states of the Federation. There would be no state elections in Kogi, Anambra, Ondo, Imo, Edo, Osun, Bayelsa and Ekiti which are in the off-cycle election belt. However, this weekend’s elections were meant to hold last Saturday, March 11, but the polls had to be rescheduled on account of the disputes that arose from the February 25 Presidential election and the orders given by the Court of Appeal acting as the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal. Three political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), acting in self-defence in its case, had gone to court to seek permission to be allowed to inspect the materials used for the election by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) which announced the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives’ Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as winner of the election with 8. 974, 726 million of total votes cast. The Presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubaar, and Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party had challenged the results as declared by INEC. The court ruled in their favour on Friday, March 3. By Tuesday, March 7, the ruling APC and its candidate, now president-elect, also sought the leave of court to have access to the election materials. INEC also approached the court requesting that it should vary the order it gave earlier permitting PDP, LP, to inspect election materials, by granting it leave to reconfigure the Bi-Modal Verification Accreditation System (BVAS) ahead of the Gubernatorial and State legislature elections scheduled for March 11.
Counsel to INEC had told the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal that their client would need a minimum of five days to reconfigure the BVAS. As it turned out, the two other matters were determined on Wednesday, March 8. The court granted INEC’s request to reconfigure the BVAS, but it did not rule that this should have any effect on the March 11 date. The Court granted APC its prayers. But in yet another matter, it refused to grant the Labour Party its request to inspect the INEC data base, and oversee the reconfiguration of the BVAS. On its own, after a review of the Court’s ruling, INEC announced that “it was far too late” for the reconfiguration of BVAS to be concluded within two days in over 170, 000 polling units nationwide. Consequently, the Commission rescheduled the Gubernatorial and state Assembly elections till March 18. INEC promised that it would obey the orders of court: grant the petitioners access to inspect election materials, and also upload data to its back-end server and make Certified True Copies of same available to all parties in the matter.
It is now election week again, as Nigerians are expected to troop out this Saturday to participate in state elections. They would be doing so against the background of the drama generated by the elections of February 25. As various international observers have pointed out: Chatham House, Ambassador Mark Green, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, the US Observer Mission, Financial Times, Bloomberg, New York Times, South Africa’s Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), Reuters, YIAGA Africa, The Guardian UK, BBC, Chinese News Agency, Washington Post, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, the African Union Election Observation Mission to Nigeria, ECOWAS, EU, UN, and the West African Elders Forum (WAEF) among others, the emergent consensus was that whereas the people of Nigeria showed much zeal and determination towards the polls, the entire exercise fell short of the people’s expectations. In other words, INEC disappointed the people. I have already offered a catalogue of the sheer incompetence and poor performance put up by INEC in an earlier commentary (see “Nigeria: February 25 and the Aftermath,”ThisDay, Tuesday, March 7) read that here. Things have gone so bad that in fact the People’s Democratic Party led by its Presidential candidate and other party leaders had to stage a protest from the party’s headquarters to the Headquarters of INEC, on Monday, March 6. They asked for a cancellation of the election, and submitted a protest letter. A week later, the Labour Party in a statement issued by its Chief Spokesperson, Dr Yunusa Tanko, is also threatening to call out its supporters on a peaceful protest to challenge INEC’s refusal to obey the order of Court to allow the party to inspect election materials. Tanko insists that the court order was duly served on INEC and a reminder was also sent to it. But whereas INEC is busy reconfiguring the BVAS, it has ignored other court orders. It has failed to keep its promise. Other political parties are aggrieved. It must be noted that on three previous occasions since 1999 that elections were postponed, Nigeria usually cited either security or logistics reasons: 2011, 2015, 2019, but in 2023, INEC’s excuse is that it has to reconfigure its equipment!
The biggest calamity in Nigeria’s democratic process this time around is the embarrassing conduct of the electoral umpire. The people have lost trust in INEC. The institution suffers a credibility crisis. The worst thing that can happen to any public institution is to end up in the eyes of the same people it is established to serve as a fibbing, clumsy, unreliable institution. Between February 25 and now, INEC has broken virtually all the promises it made to the people of Nigeria, including the ones its Chairman rolled out for effect on the floor of Chatham House in London! INEC’s much-trumpeted confidence in the deployment of technology as enabled by the law and its own guidelines has been shown to be nothing more than an exercise in hypocrisy. On February 25, results from polling units were transmitted to the INEC portal called iREV, but not Presidential election results from the same polling units. More than a week after the elections, INEC could not fully load results unto its portals. Many voters could not get their Permanent Voter’s Cards, the same cards that have been sighted in bushes, forests, in the hands of foreigners and shadowy apartments across the country. INEC could not distribute its own PVCs! The Court of Justice Obiora Egwuatu has now ruled, March 9, in favour of two persons: Kofoworola Olusegun and Wilson Allwell that they should be allowed to vote with their Temporary Voter’s Cards (TVCs), but although the ruling is in personam, the matter having not been filed in a representative capacity, INEC says it will appeal the Federal High Court ruling. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, no other electoral process has been this confusing and uncertain.
Those who are familiar with the subject argue that the postponement of the state elections alone comes with “staggering economic loss.” It could also harm voter enthusiasm and voter turn-out rates. The perception that the elections could be rigged at will is a major issue. Galaxy Backbone, Nigeria’s ICT services provider owned by the Federal Government, has confirmed that it had to fend off over 200 cyberattacks during the Presidential and National Assembly elections. Perception is important in any electoral process. Even IT experts believe that INEC is lying when it says it wants to reconfigure BVAS – the same INEC that cannot figure out whatever “technical glitches” that sabotaged its operations more than two weeks after the fact.
Every aggrieved party has been advised to go to the courts, and seek redress through legal and constitutional means. President Muhammadu Buhari has also expressly declared that there is no plan to annul the Presidential election – that is impossible, we are in a democracy - not under military rule. What anyone can hold on to is the general admonition that INEC should by now have carried out a thorough review of the elections of February 25, to understand what worked, what did not, what went amiss, and to learn the relevant lessons and ensure that these are used to deliver a much better process on March 18. But do we ever learn in Nigeria – a country where amnesia is a national malady and rascality seems at once genetic and contagious? INEC is expected to rebuild the people’s confidence. It is in the best interest of everyone that INEC succeeds on Saturday, March 18. The errors of February 25 have pushed the people to a corner where they are poised for war in various parts of the country. The people are determined more than before to defend their votes. Gubernatorial and state legislature elections are mainly local elections, and understandably, they are invested with a higher dosage of emotionalism. The tension in the country is at an all-time high. The thugs who snatched ballot boxes two weeks ago may find that it won’t be easy to do so this week. The battle will be tough and fierce in some of the states: Edo, Delta, Enugu, Abia, Rivers, Kaduna, Kogi, Oyo, and especially Lagos.
As was the case in the February 25 elections, ethnicity, religion, power and territory would be big issues. Against all odds, after the vote count in that process, Labour Party which was accused of not having a party structure ended up with more than 25% of the votes in 12 states including the Federal Capital Territory, with 6 winners in the Senate, and 34 in the House of Representatives, coming third in the Presidential Election, which the party says was rigged against it. The Labour Party would seek to consolidate on its February 25 election victories this week. Delta, Enugu, Abia, Rivers, Kaduna, Benue would be major battle grounds for the party. And Lagos in particular, where the Labour Party won majority votes and would want to repeat the feat. The President-elect was Governor of Lagos for two terms. He is the Godfather of the ruling APC in Lagos. To beat him and his party’s incumbent Governor in Lagos is not impossible as the Labour Party has shown, but to do so twice will be quite a feat. And that is why there has been so much desperation in the campaigns in Lagos in the lead up to March 18. The APC has played the ethnic card against the candidate of the Labour Party in a most vicious manner. His offence is that his mother is Igbo. He is also married to an Igbo woman. His grandmother is also said to be Igbo. And he bears Patrick. He bears Chinedu. He speaks Igbo. The ethnic irridentists of Lagos politics have been swearing that Lagos belongs to the Yoruba, it is not a no-man’s-land, and anyone with a small drop of Igbo blood would not be allowed to become Governor. They forget that the Rhodes-Vivour family has been a Yoruba family in Lagos for more than five generations. And those who voted for the Labour Party in Lagos State on February 25 were not necessarily Igbos. They cut across all ethnic groups, and they were probably mostly Yorubas. Those who are targeting Igbos must desist from doing so. They must remember Rwanda, where the politics of ethic hate resulted in a massive blow-out. If they don’t know where Rwanda is, let them remember how ethnic politics catalyzed Nigeria’s civil war.
And for the benefit of those who think Igbo votes would be frustrated by burning markets dominated by Igbos in Lagos, I draw their attention to the Lagos Area Council election of 1950. As reported in the Daily Times of Wednesday, October 18, 1950 to wit: “ELECTION RESULTS: Demo-Labour Alliance Wins: 18 Seats Against Area Council’s 6”. The Demo-Labour Market Alliance won 18 out of the 24 seats in the new Lagos Town Council. Out of these, there were non-Yoruba winners: Nduka Eze in Ward C, Mbonu Ojike in Ward D, Anyiam F. and Gogo, C.N in Ward F. Before then, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, an Igbo man represented Lagos between 1947 and 1951 in the Legislative Council of Nigeria. It was in this same area called Lagos that Emmanuel Ebubedike from Ozubulu in present-day Anambra State won election in the First Republic to represent Ajeromi-Badagry-Ifelodun in the Western Region House of Assembly. Each time I cite this example, I am reminded that it was Ebubedike who first snatched the Mace in the Western House on May 22, 1962 and turned it into a weapon of assault. He didn’t grab the mace because he was Igbo. Everyone had literally lost their head in the Western Region on that occasion.
In more recent times, a certain Oghene Emma Egho represented Amuwo-Odofin Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives on the platform of the PDP in 2015. The truth is that Lagos is a cosmopolitan melting pot of cultures, tropes and influences and its diversity and accommodative, liberal temper is part of the city’s mystique and essence. It has been reported that some acclaimed Lagos “omo oniles” – the self-styled land-owning families of Lagos are beginning to revoke lease agreements to remind non-Lagosians that Lagos belongs to its indigenous people! It has also been reported that some traditional rulers in Ibeju-Lekki are withdrawing traditional titles that they had conferred on some Igbos in their quarters. All of this just because a Yoruba son whose mother happens to be Igbo wants to be Governor? Absolutely ridiculous. There are no illegitimate children in Africa! It is a good thing that Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, the incumbent Lagos Governor has publicly decried ethnic politics. Other stakeholders in Lagos politics should do the same. The President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, should step forward also to let everyone know that the people of Lagos, both indigenes and non-indigenes have the right to vote for the leaders of their choice.
The security agencies have their work cut out for them. They were conspicuously ineffectual on February 25. The police have been given money and equipment and the necessary support they asked for from President Muhammadu Buhari. The stakes may have been high on February 25. They would be higher on March 18. It goes without saying that the international community is watching. Nigeria’s success is critical for the stability of neighbouring countries and the larger project of democracy, good governance and accountability in African states. INEC and other agencies involved in #NigeriaDecides2023 should not turn Nigeria into the laughing stock of Africa.
Nigeria held its Presidential and National Assembly elections on Saturday, February 25, 2023 across all the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory. It was the most competitive election since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the seventh in the cycle. It was also the election with the lowest turn-out: just about 25. 2 million voters voted in that election. Close to one million votes were voided, the declared winner won just about 8.8% of the total votes cast out of 93.4 million registered voters, with a collated figure of 87.2 million registered voters. Many commentators have attributed the low voter turn-out to voter suppression, voter intimidation and the scarcity of money and fuel, although those may not have been serious reasons for voter apathy. The people were enthusiastic, but they were disappointed by INEC’s gross incompetence.
In 1999, voter turn-out was 52.3 %; in 2003, over 63 million voters showed up– that is 69.1% turn out in Nigeria’s Presidential and National Assembly elections of that year; in 2007, the reported figure was 57.5%; and in 2011, 53.7%, with the loser in that election - General Buhari getting as many as a little over 15 million votes. In 2015, the turn-out figure dropped to 43.7%; later in 2019, 34. 75%, The bigger point to be made is that Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election has had the worst turn-out in the whole of Africa in the last decade. In 2017, Rwanda recorded a 98.15% voter turn-out, which was considered the highest in the world.
What we can hold on to is that whereas Nigerians were very enthusiastic about the National Assembly and Presidential elections of February 25, 2023, there were great apprehensions among the people which hindered the eventual outcome of the process. Nigerians now have a President-elect in the person of Senator/Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with the lowest margin of victory in contemporary Nigerian history. The total number of valid votes in this election is not even up to the total number of votes won by just two candidates in previous elections. But what the law states is that the man with the majority of votes and the highest number of votes in two thirds of the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory is to be declared winner. Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution which addresses this is already a matter of contention in both the public domain and the courts. It would be interesting to see how in the course of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunals, this diminishes or enhances the county’s jurisprudence in that regard.
But for now, what we know is that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, winner of the Presidential election of February 25. INEC did not also waste time in giving the Certificate of Return to the APC candidate. We have not seen the same haste with the other elections, the National Assembly elections of February 25 and their legislative winners. None of them has received the Certificate of Return the following day, or nine days after. But the President-elect got his post-haste. He has also since embarked on victory laps to key political figures including the President in his home state of Daura, his wife, supported by other APC wives has visited Mrs Aisha Buhari in Aso Villa, and to cap it all, the President-elect has led a delegation to the Oba of Lagos just to say thank you. Tinubu has since moved into the Defence House in Abuja, the holding bay for a President in waiting. By now, he would be receiving daily security briefings from all relevant agencies of state. In terms of optics, Tinubu himself is already hob-nobbing with the international diplomatic community. He is visiting local traditional rulers and taking messages from foreign diplomats. He has done a victory lap of sorts to Lagos and no one should be surprised if he goes to all principal Yoruba towns and kings. He is playing a game of self-affirmation, laying concrete beneath his “Emilokan” (it’s my turn”) declaration. He has not only managed to win the election; he is already seeking to consolidate the gain by playing a fast game ahead of others. He is striving to establish himself as master and owner of the game.
I think I have a fair idea of what is playing out. The last time I ran for elective office – in the 2019 Gubernatorial race, I recall some wise persons in our camp, telling us at the time, that the way Nigerian politics is played, it is better to win the election and allow other parties and candidates to be the ones to complain. While they are preparing to go to court, you take charge of the victory and take the game to another level. Resort to the tribunal and the courts is constitutionally provided for as the place of last resort for aggrieved politicians, but the received wisdom in Nigerian politics is that if you know your way, that could be difficult to enforce at the gubernatorial level and even more difficult at the Presidential level. Nigerian politicians seem to have this implicit confidence that if you know how the system works, it would be difficult to lose the certificate of return that has been issued to you. The matter is further compounded by the fact that election matters are sui generis. This is a euphemism for the fact that in an election matter, the verdict can go in any direction.
The heavy burden of proof is on the plaintiff to prove that he has been cheated. The courts have a presumption of regularity in favour of the respondent and the electoral commission. The test in election matters is substantial compliance. It is partly why some of the election cases that go all the way to the Supreme Court always produce strange outcomes. In Presidential matters, it would be recalled that the Nigerian Supreme Court has never up-turned any Presidential dispute from Awolowo vs. Shagari to Atiku vs. Jonathan and after. Their Lordships of the Supreme Court always find a way of ruling in favour of the man who already has the Certificate of Return! The ink was yet to dry on the ballot papers before INEC produced and handed over the Certificates of Return for the Presidential election to the President-elect and the Vice-President-Elect as announced for the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The general impression, among Nigerians, with the sole exception of the supporters of the ruling party now declared elected, is that Nigeria’s electoral commission simply keyed into the President-elect’s “emilokan message”. Whereas the technological innovation in form of BVAS – the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System and iREV - the INEC results reporting portal -was supposed to ensure transparency and accountability in form of real-time loading of results from polling units, on election day, the same BVAS process as provided for in Section 60 of the Electoral Act and Clause 38 of INEC’s own Guidelines failed on election day. To be specific, it worked seamlessly for National Assembly elections but failed to upload Presidential elections. The same device, in the same locations, in the same elections conducted on the same day chose to behave in a discriminatory manner due, I suspect, to human error or human failure. But INEC places the blame conveniently on “technical glitches” arising from the fact that this was not an off-cycle election but a general election. The people were assured that the glitches would be fixed by the engineers. Nine days later, INEC was yet to load the results from over 176, 800 polling units for the Presidential election on its portal, the engineers have not fixed anything, and yet they have declared a winner of the Presidential election. It is difficult to dismiss the aggrieved Nigerians who have blamed INEC for imposing something in the shape of “election magic” on Nigerians on February 25. The major political parties that lost out are on their way to the courts. They have asked for the leave of court to inspect INEC documents to put evidence together. The People’s Democratic Party has staged “a black uniform” demonstration in Abuja to show the party’s displeasure.
But would this make any difference? Nigeria is a funny country. Heavens don’t fall around here when people’s expectations are not fulfilled. Not in normal, everyday life. Not during elections. Expectations die daily in Nigeria. The truth is: the people are used to that reality. They hem and haw when they are aggrieved. The same people would later move on, and behave as if nothing is amiss. The psychology of the Nigerian to adapt to everything and anything is one of the major wonders of the world. The APC strategists know this. They believe it. It is why they can beat their chests and boast with the authority of the courts. They have not only been declared elected, they have assumed the authority of the courts. Meet us there! Their confidence is typically Nigerian. In reality, there is no truly independent institution in Nigeria. When you look deeply enough, you’d find some magic lying underneath.
It is okay for the international community to urge Nigerians to seek legal and necessary means to resolve disputes. That is the standard script in these matters as a way of maintaining peace and order. It is even more important to prevent a country of over 200 million from descending into chaos. Nigeria is so delicate and so strategic, you can do just about anything, people can hurt you as they wish, and no matter how, everyone would still beg you to calm down. Hence, the aggrieved political parties are expected to calm down. Only three of the parties are openly aggrieved by the way out of 18 political parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Only three parties are talking of going to court. Other aggrieved parties like Omoyele Sowore’s African Action Congress (AAC) have been heard making small noises, but the majority of the other parties, like the Social Democratic Party (SDP) seem to have taken a pragmatic view of the matter. Nobody should be surprised if some of the other smaller political parties show up in court to support the President-elect, and argue that there was nothing wrong with the elections of February 25. No one should be surprised either if INEC finds ways of blocking the access of the aggrieved parties to critical data and evidence.
Those who will be hurt, those to whom Nigeria has happened, after a manner of speech, are those Nigerians who got brutalized before, during and after the election (I hope Mrs Efedi Bina Jennifer’s face has healed – she got stabbed in the face on election day in Surulere, Lagos), those whose votes were never counted because BVAS failed or INEC officials threw away their papers into the bush, or simply refused to upload results, those whose votes were set ablaze because hoodlums seized ballot boxes and set fire to them, those who voted, heard the results at the polling units, only to hear INEC Headquarters later announcing a different set of results. It must be painful to such persons to be told that their choice was determined by “technical glitches”. And now, four days to another round of elections – INEC seeks the leave of court to reconfigure its BVAS. What INEC could not do for months, and in nine days, it wants to do in 4 days? Candidly, no be juju be that? The biggest loser in the just concluded election is of course INEC. For failing the people, it failed as an institution. It lost the people’s trust and confidence. Whatever it does going forward, the people would be full of doubts. I pity Professor Yakubu Mahmood, the INEC Chairman. Whatever reputation he may have had before now, has been thrown out of the window. He won’t be the first INEC Chairman that would end up on the wrong side of history. But he may end up as the most vilified, and go down in history as the man who presided over the most competitive and most disputed elections in Nigerian history since the return to civilian rule in 1999. How does he hope to move about distinguished company when all this is won and lost?
He has now promised to conduct better elections on March 11 – the Gubernatorial and Houses of Assembly elections. The stakes are lower. If the technology – BVAS and iREV - works smoothly on March 11, that would be solid proof that February 25 was truly an exercise in witchcraft. Both ways: INEC and Yakubu Mahmood will lose. It does not matter what they do on Saturday, March 11. They have failed woefully in the court of public opinion. Besides, the security agencies were nowhere to be found on election day. In their presence, unscrupulous voters suppressed and intimidated voters, snatched ballot boxes, set ballot boxes ablaze – most of the reports indicated that the security agencies stood arms akimbo and did nothing. In one report, the police also helped ad hoc INEC officials to thumb-print ballot papers. The police have not reported any arrests nor have they come forward to disown the men who wore police uniforms. The same police collected money and equipment from President Buhari to ensure a hitch-free election. The only security agency that showed up on election day was the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) whose officials arrested persons who moved money about to buy votes or tried bank transfers to influence voters. The only news that came from the Civil Defence was that its officials had an accident on their way to a polling booth. That must have been due to careless driving because there was no traffic on the roads on election day! General Lucky Irabor boasted that soldiers would give anybody who tried to disrupt the elections, “a bloody nose”. Nobody saw the soldiers on duty!
What next for Nigeria, then? I believe it is a good thing to test our laws – the Electoral Act, the 1999 Constitution and INEC guidelines to deepen our democracy and jurisprudence. But I do not think that the courts would up-turn the Presidential election. Judges are also citizens. They know how the game is played. They will not allow themselves to be used as scapegoats when other institutions of state have failed. What we all can hold on to is Bola Tinubu’s promise of conciliation, unity and his agenda for prosperity. We may not have paid close enough attention to his agenda for “restored hope” before now, but it is time to do so. We must take charge of the future, and define for the President-elect what Nigeria needs going forward. Anyone thinking and dreaming that he would relinquish that certificate of return, which he says he regards, as “a world cup trophy” should stop dreaming. For Nigeria, the days ahead are bound to be even more interesting. I wait to be proven wrong.
It is yet another moment of transition for Nigeria as the country goes to the polls in 4 days’ time to elect a new President and members of the National Assembly in what amounts to a seventh cycle of general elections since the country’s return to democratic, civilian rule in 1999. One President will be elected, President Muhammadu Buhari who became President on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015, having completed his maximum two-term limit of eight years is not on the ballot. All the 109 seats in the Senate are up for election as is the case with all the 360 seats in the House of Representatives. The date of this first election is Saturday, February 25.
The second general election is on March 11 for the election of Governors in 28 states and 993 members of State Houses of Assembly, both to be held in 8, 809 wards/registration areas across the country, 176, 606 polling units , overseen by about 1.4 million staff of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with a total of 93.4 million voters participating. INEC says there will be no election in 240 polling units due to security reasons, voters having tactically avoided the same polling units and having refused to register in the same units– in the North East – 67, South East – 64, North Central – 49, North West – 47, South South – 8 South West- 5. The cancellation of these 240 units without voters is a confirmation of how the challenge of insecurity is one major threat to Nigeria’s 2023 electoral process. The other threats include voter suppression, voter apathy, violence, vote buying, the turbulence arising from the scarcity of new naira notes and fuel, and the general apathy in the land further deepened by high rate of inflation at 21.82%, unemployment – 33%, poverty, and the general high cost of living.
Nigeria goes to the polls this week, tottering on the edge of the cliff. Days to the election, there have been reports of violence in parts of the country as a result of a naira re-design policy introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria in October 2022, to address money supply issues, encourage a cashless economy, deepen financial intermediation, check illicit financial transactions and ransom payment for kidnapping and overall, to boost economic growth but that policy has now resulted in utter chaos. The new re-designed notes are not in circulation in the desired quantities, the return of old denominations of N200, N500, and N1, 000 notes has been problematic, and on top of it all, depositors cannot have access to their money. On the eve of a general election, both the poor and the rich are lamenting that they can’t have access to money. The effect is that there have been direct attacks on banks across the country, Automated Teller Machines, and Point of Sales Centres (POS) have been set ablaze, including offices of the Central Bank. Many have died.
While the CBN claims that it has released new notes into circulation and that an otherwise necessary policy is being sabotaged by the political class looking for cash to buy votes and voters; opponents of the CBN’s policy question the timing of the policy and the difficulties imposed on the people. For many Nigerians, the big issue is not the election, but the politicization of the CBN’s policy on naira redesign. State Governors of the ruling party- All Progressives Congress have gone to court to sue the Federal Government, the CBN, and the President in two different suits. APC Governors and stakeholders are fighting their own government and openly disagreeing with their President. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has asked to be joined as co-defendants through AG Edo State and AG Bayelsa. Can you imagine members of the ruling party fighting their own government days to a general election, and the opposition supporting the President who belongs to the ruling party? The matter comes up tomorrow, Wednesday, February 22 at the Supreme Court, three days to the election as the apex court takes critical decisions if it would. It would prove to be a momentous moment in Nigeria’s 2023 electoral process, given the weightiness of the issues before their Lordships.
Tomorrow, assuming that all the suits have been properly consolidated with all joinders accommodated, and expecting that no one brings another red-herring to further delay the court and the process, their Lordships are expected to make pronouncements on a number of issues viz: (1) whether or not the apex court has jurisdiction to hear the matter in AG Kaduna and ors. vs AG Federation, as originally presented, (2) whether or not there is a dispute between the states and the Federal Government to warrant the apex court’s original jurisdiction; (3) whether or not the original matter should have been instituted at the Federal High Court and not the Supreme Court; (4) whether or not the President of Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari can, acting in the interest of public policy, tactically undermine the authority of the Supreme Court as he did in his national broadcast of Thursday, February 16, when he ordered the CBN to continue to release old N200 notes till April 10, in flagrant violation of the extant Order of the Apex court of February 8, reaffirmed on February 15, to the effect that the status quo should be maintained until “the hearing of the motion on notice”. The Supreme Court is yet to hear the motion on notice. Will the Supreme Court “bark and bite” as it has been advised to do, in line with the rules established in State vs Solomon, Abacha vs Fawehinmi, Governor of Lagos State vs Ojukwu, and in line with Section 287 of the 1999 Constitution all of which affirm the supremacy of the order of Court, even if it is a nullity. And what would the Supreme Court have to say about those state Governors who have also similarly overruled the Supreme Court with the Governors in Kogi, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Ogun telling the people in their states to keep spending the old notes whatever anyone says. In many of these states though, the re-designed old notes have lost both street credibility and legitimacy as the people opt to err on the side of caution.
The situation in Nigeria is further compounded, days to the election, by the scarcity of fuel, even if that is easing off. Nigerians are going to the polls this year, angry, hungry and confused. The only rabbit that has not yet been pulled out of the hat is some dubious persons going to court to secure a midnight, black market court injunction as was done in the past, to try to stop the election. Whatever happens at the Supreme Court of Nigeria tomorrow would say a lot about the courage, wisdom and integrity of the present apex court. What Nigerians can hold on to is the continued assurance by the President, Muhammadu Buhari that his administration is committed to seeing the elections through. Having given the same assurance repeatedly, he appears resolute and convincing. Ahead of the elections, he has told Nigerians that the government has the required security measures in place to protect the electoral process and defend the average Nigerian’s right to exercise his or her franchise. The President continues to send across the right signals on both the political process and the naira redesign policy, the ownership of which he has not shied away from, even if when he uses recent opportunities to campaign for the Presidential candidate of his party, the APC, many try to read meanings into the President’s campaign. Nigerians no doubt want to be given the opportunity to make a free choice in the 2023 elections and that they would be given a fair playing ground to do so. What President Buhari is expected to do, is to keep his promise in that regard, and ensure a smooth transition, and his job would have been done.
One other major positive factor as Nigeria goes to the polls is the confidence with which the electoral umpire, INEC, continues to reassure Nigerians that it is indeed ready for the polls, regardless of whatever challenges may have been thrown up in the course of preparations. Despite the scarcity of the national currency, the CBN says it stands firm by the INEC to ensure that any cash that is required for logistics and other payments is made available to guarantee successful polls. Between the last general elections in 2019 and now, more than 50 INEC facilities have been destroyed, attacked, compromised, set ablaze literally by unknown gunmen. INEC materials have been destroyed, generators carted away, permanent voters cards stolen, majorly in the Southern part of the country. There is no evidence of arrests or convictions. Yet, INEC says it is ready. Just like the CBN, INEC has also received the expression of support from the National Security Adviser (NSA), that the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) has what it takes to protect the polls and the electorate. Hmm. Those who have expressed doubts about the capacity of the security agencies cannot be blamed. The security agencies are the weakest link in Nigeria’s preparations for the elections. Where were these same inter-agency stakeholders when unknown assailants attacked INEC facilities and locations? Why have they proven completely negligent in addressing the threats and reality of violence before the election? The default response in the circumstance is for the Nigerian state to call out soldiers, and in fact the military has also been overheard saying that they are ready for Nigeria’s elections. Hmm. We all need to be reminded ahead of Saturday that this is an election not war! Everyone is behaving as if Nigeria is going to war. Relatives are calling on each other to stockpile food. Many families, especially the privileged ones, have fled to safe havens across the border, in anticipation that Nigeria could descend into chaos. This must not end up as a militarized election.
The good thing about this country, however, is that there are many who are driven by sheer resilience and optimism. Those are the ones who will troop out on Saturday to vote no matter the odds. Since the last general election, a large population of Nigerians have come of age. Between the ages of 18 and 34, they constitute the bulk – more than 40% actually - of the voting population. They belong to the “Speak Out” (“Soro Soke”) generation that came into full reckoning in 2021 during the anti-police brutality #EndSars protests. They want to take their country back, and they constitute the backbone of what has become the Peter Obi movement under the platform of the Labour Party, which Peter Obi and his supporters have built from nothing into a strong force. Many of the persons within this demographic category may have been structurally disenfranchised, but their enthusiasm would be a major point of analysis when a post-mortem of the current season is done. To vote in this election, the Nigerian voter needs a PVC, the only means of voting identification and verification that is recognized by law and the much-acclaimed deus ex machina to Nigeria’s electoral problems called the BVAS – Bio-modal Voter Accreditation System. Sadly, many Nigerians on the voters’ register could not get their PVCs. This all-important item was found in drainage channels, in wrong hands, and in parts of the country, INEC officials made quick trade selling PVCs. Voters complained of frustration and ethnic discrimination. INEC continues to boast that the BVAS is error-proof and that having used it in off-cycle elections, Nigerians can be sure that answers have been provided for electoral fraud and over-voting. The question is - really? The same BVAS, the same technology, that is a matter of dispute in the July 16, 2022 Gubernatorial election in Osun State? The least that INEC can do is to ensure that those Nigerians who have PVCs are able to vote without frustration, and that INEC technology back-end works and that the margin of human error is carefully managed. It goes without saying that a general election is far more complex and demanding than smaller scale, off-cycle elections.
All eyes are watching Nigeria. Oftentimes, Nigerians forget how important their country is, and so they act in an absent-minded manner, leaders and citizens alike. Nigeria is the most populous country in the Black world. It is the largest market in Africa. The country sits atop enormous natural resources, in the sub-soil, the sea-bed and the continental shelf. The country’s only problem is that it is populated by human beings who have failed to move with the times, beyond primordial, centrifugal tendencies. The world is watching and many are interested in Nigeria’s election because any form of disruption in Nigeria could have far-reaching implications and consequences for geo-politics. President Buhari was quoted recently saying that the international community must not intervene in Nigeria’s elections. That statement must have been poorly phrased because in 2015, the same President Buhari then seeking power and office had openly welcomed foreign interest in Nigeria’s politics. He has since corrected himself by playing host to the EU Observation Mission for the 2023 elections. The CBN Governor has even, most recently met with foreign ambassadors in the country. No country is an island unto itself. What we deplore is the grovelling, sycophantic, neo-colonial, ineffectual rush by Nigerian political candidates to places like Chatham House to seek endorsement. Nigeria will be in the news in a more intensive manner until the elections are won and lost. Certain foreign governments, including the US and UK have declared that any Nigerian politician that behaves in an unscrupulous manner will be put on their countries’ black list. We live under a rules-based international community. Politicians, beware, and indeed the politicians are the problem – their greed, selfishness, lack of patriotism and wickedness.
When all this is over and done with, the same professional political class that has been paying scant attention to the Electoral Act 2022, which was expected to be a game-changer and has so far not proven to be so, must learn that the rule of law should be obeyed. There has been no proven regard for the Peace Accords that the politicians signed. Peace must be allowed to prevail. Perhaps, Nigeria must begin to reconsider its system of government. The current Presidential system of government is too wasteful and indulgent. The way forward may well be a return to a parliamentary system of government or a hybrid of the presidential-parliamentary system. In the meantime, let every Nigerian of voting age, with a PVC go out to vote wisely. The future of this country lies in your vote.