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“So now that President Bola Tinubu has held his first Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting with his Ministers, what do you think?”
“When was that? You know, sometimes, I try to select what I pay attention to in this country. This place is so bad enough it can affect your mental health. You have to struggle with your own mental health even when you worry about the complex country called Nigeria.”
“Okay, for you to ask when confirms your point. For your information, President Tinubu’s inaugural FEC meeting was held yesterday at the Presidential Villa.”
“On a Monday? I thought the traditional day for FEC meetings is Wednesday of every week.”
“Traditional yes, but not statutory. There is nowhere in the Nigerian Constitution that it is written that the President must meet with his Cabinet on a Wednesday. Ministers are the President’s advisers and aides, he can meet with them as he deems fit, and because the Federal Cabinet represents voices from across the Federation, it is endowed with the toga of inclusivity and representation.”
“You have started again. You think these Ministers see themselves as representing anybody? You people just like to quote theory and sound bites from persons whose job is simply propaganda, and they are masters at it. When Minister Nyesom Wike declared that he would demolish any structure that could be in violation of the Abuja Master Plan, was he doing that in the people’s interest?”
“Master plans are meant to be respected. He is defending the rule of law. In fact, if you ask me, I would say that of all the Ministers, it is only Wike who has hit the ground running. Apart from his statement about illegal structures, he also inspected the Abuja mass rail transit system and openly declared that it is in a dysfunctional state.”
“What do you expect him to say? Was his arch-enemy Rotimi Amaechi, former Governor, former Minister, former Presidential aspirant not the man in charge of railways matters with the Chinese under the Buhari administration? Wike knows how to play the game of cutting your rival under the belly. I always tell people that he is a deft politician, whatever you may think of his style”
“Maybe you are right. After all, more than any other Minister, particularly any former Governor turned Minister, he has been able to capture the attention of the President. The other day, at the on-going Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Annual Conference in Abuja, the President publicly told Wike: “If I ask for free land in Abuja, don’t give me”
“Yes. The President said so. That is the Jagaban for you.”
“My friend, stop. Nobody gives anybody land free of charge. I put it to you that Wike will reserve choice plots of land for President Tinubu and his associates, and for anyone that the President approves of. Tinubu was talking about giving out free land, not the individual’s legitimate right to acquire and own land. Always learn to read between the lines before you run with the headlines.”
“What I know is that President Tinubu has fixed performance targets for his Ministers, and he has made it clear that any Minister that is surplus to requirement would be asked to leave.”
“When that happens, we ‘d see, we’d see.”
“You don’t believe him?”
“Of course, I do. But we’d see. After all, the same President has said that his administration will not service debt with 90% of the country’s revenue. We all know that such a revenue to debt ratio is unsustainable. But the question is how? How? How? The Buhari people may not know enough theory, but these new guys know the theory and they mouth the received wisdoms from IMF and World Bank so well, but the question is: to what effect?”
“What do you mean to what effect? This administration has rolled out robust cost-cutting strategies to reduce the cost of governance. The President has just directed ahead of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September that any government official that has no business in New York should not be attended to by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs”.
‘You know what the Presidency has just done with that statement? They have just provided work for Omoyele Sowore and Sahara Reporters.”
“How? The President wants to cut costs”
“Is that how a government cuts costs? Stop supporting our leaders blindly. Try and have a critical mind of your own. You are already jubilating and inventing panegyrics because you don’t know. You should wait till some research journalists publish the list of the President’s entourage to New York in September, and the additional list of accompanying Ministers and their own aides. Don’t forget that at the next UNGA, Tinubu’s first, we have been told that he would be having a meeting with President Joe Biden on the sidelines. And it is not only President Biden that he would meet. He would need many government officials around him from the Nigerian Mission to the US and the UN, and a retinue of officials from home. You don’t think there would be Ministers who are scrambling to accompany the President just to take a photo with President Biden? I have my suspicions, but let’s wait and see, and please stop committing everything government says to heart. Learn to separate the wheat from the chaff.”
“I always do. I do, if you want to be fair to me, and in any case, I don’t have to see things as you see them. The problem with people like you is that you think you know it all.”
“I always tell you the truth”
“You sound like you are the only one with a monopoly of the truth. Truth is relative. If I tell you I stand on Asiwaju’s mandate, then that is where I stand, and that is the truth for me”
“And that is why you were saying the other day that Nigeria reporting a 4.1% unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2023 is a good sign, and I told you that’s nonsense.”
“And how is that the president’s problem? It was the office of the Statistician-General and the National Bureau of Statics that gave that report. They said they have adopted a new methodology in calculating Nigeria’s unemployment figures in line with best international practices. You need accurate data to plan.”
“What new methodology? Lying with data. Do you need to be a statistician to know that things are getting worse in Nigeria? And why would anyone quote Q1 figures in the light of present realities? The National Bureau of Statistics must begin to talk to us in the kind of simple language that we can understand. Now they say new methodology: how do we measure the effect in terms of the quotidian reality of our lives? Are you aware that any parents have slipped into depression because all the children they trained through university are all at home without work? Are you aware also that many of the Nigerians who have abandoned the country in search of greener pastures did so and are doing so because life elsewhere provides them with greater meaning?”
“This is the age of globalization. No government can legitimately stop its citizens from going anywhere. Those who want to live abroad will leave, those of us who are determined to remain here, will remain, life without end. People must learn to make sacrifices for the good of their country. Nigerians are always trying to compete with their leaders. Our Money, Our Money. People should know their place in the ultimate equation of things.”
“Are you alright?”
“Yes, I am”
“People tell you to make sacrifice for Nigeria, the same sacrifice that they are not willing to make. Are you aware…?”
“I am aware of everything. Stop asking me if I am aware. Are we not in this same…?
“Let me finish.”
“Okay finish.
“Are you aware that members of the House of Representatives in the 10th National Assembly have only recently agreed to give themselves N150 million each as constituency allowance, coming up to a total of about N54 billion. House of Reps members in the 9th National Assembly took N100 million each. Nobody ever knows what they do with the money these lawmakers continue to collect as allowances. Most of the time, a lawmaker would dig bore holes. At the height of COVID-19, many of them bought water buckets and called them constituency projects. Besides, investment in infrastructure is the job of the Executive not the Legislature.”
“Rome was not built in a day. Democracy is a learning curve. We will learn”
“After 24 years of return to civilian rule? We are still learning. Perhaps, you could be right you know? The Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) has only just taken some Nigerian Governors on a three-day retreat to learn about how to re-imagine leadership in a fast-changing world. But does anyone need to go to Rwanda to learn that leadership is a major challenge in Africa and that there is a trust crisis between the leaders and the people they claim to lead?”
“The programme was in collaboration with the UNDP, and on the personal invitation of President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame. One of the subjects that they deliberated upon was how to promote inclusivity. There can never be any end to learning.”
“Except that Nigerian leaders going to Rwanda to learn about leadership is an indication of how low we have sunk as a country.”
“President Paul Kagame is a fine example of how to be a leader.”
“Give it to him. He is at best a benevolent dictator, and he has been able to re-write his country’s narrative. As for being a fine example, please. And all these your Governors that went for the retreat, the only thing they probably came back home with is a copy of the communique and may be cartons of Akabanga.”
“Akabanga. What is that?”
“Banga. Banga. Go and find out. It is a Rwandan national treasure, the kind of thing that would interest your Nigerian Governors.
“This is my problem with you. We will be discussing serious things your mind will be wandering here and there.”
“What I am saying is that those Governors had no business going on a retreat in Rwanda and packaging it as a major expedition of discovery. Governor Babajide Sanwoolu of Lagos State that should stay at home making sure his rejected 17 nominees are accepted by the Lagos State House of Assembly goes on a frolic in Rwanda at a critical moment. I don’t get it.”
“You don’t get it because you are not a politician. It is a political game. The Governor must carry people along when he makes his choices. He cannot assume that because Tinubu has made him the leader of the party and the state in Lagos, he can do what he likes and disconnect with other stakeholders. This is the mistake most people make. He must learn to listen to the other side. He is trying to fight people who know his political history. They have just told him that he is not Tinubu, and that there are forces in Lagos that can insist on their own preferences.”
“But what does he want to do with 39 Commissioners and his mentor is talking about cutting the cost of governance? Do these people connect the threads at all?”
“If Sanwoolu gets the politics right, he can have 100 commissioners if he wants and all of them will be approved. But to think he can dictate to the Lagos State House of Assembly, they will show him that there are powers behind the throne occupied by Tinubu in Lagos.”
“But how about technocratic competence? Professor Akin Abayomi did well as Commissioner of Health. Has anyone forgotten how he provided professional leadership during the COVID pandemic in Lagos? Gbenga Omotoso also served diligently as a sound technocrat. At least I know those two.”
“You don’t know politics. When Professor Akin Abayomi was setting up COVID centres and conducting money-guzzling research, how many of the stakeholders did he carry along? Technocrats. Many of you guys hide under that title to project an annoying image of hypocrisy. But technocrats know how to spend money and enjoy. But they don’t know party Chairman, Ward chairman and party members. They don’t even want to collect party membership cards. It is an open cinema. Let us all wait for the end. After all, THE END is what ends a film in the cinema.”
“I sense envy in your voice.”
“You must give me credit that I also know one or two things about politics. It is like Shaibu, the Deputy Governor of Edo State saying he wants to also become Governor of Edo State, and he remains loyal to his boss. Answer me, have they not shown him yesterday what his Governor thinks of his loyalty? His media aides were all blocked from attending a state event. When he expressed his anger, all his media aides were sacked on the authority of the Governor. The game of power can take any dimension. Babajide Sanwoolu no fit”
“What if Tinubu intervenes? This is clearly a case of the cat going on a journey and all kinds of mice and other rodents are flexing muscles in the kingdom. Who would dare carry a lantern to look at the face of the lion?”
“I don’t think Baba is going to get involved in Lagos politics for a while. He has more urgent issues at hand. Nigeria, ECOWAS, and now he is going to the UN in New York. He is where he wants to be, his place of dream. If he gets involved in Lagos matters, it is you people that will still accuse him of greed. People should learn to live without going through life as the parasite in a Godfather’s compound.”
“I just hope that someone will do something about the announcement by the Republic of Cameroon that water will soon be released from the Lagdo Dam which as we know would result in big floods on the Benue plains and 13 other states”
“The Minister of State for Environment, Ishaq Salako has said people have nothing to fear. The Lagos State Government says they have everything covered.”
“Okay. Okay. We’d see. What does the Minister know? The story of Nigeria is this: the more things are, the more they remain the same. Pathetic.”
Yesterday, 45 Ministers took the oath of office as Ministers of the Federal Republic of Nigeria pursuant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu exercising executive powers as granted under Section 5 of the 1999 Constitution, and in line with Section 147(3). These Ministers of the “Restored Hope Agenda”, we are told have a mandate to deliver Tinubu’s eight-point agenda as stated in his election manifesto to wit: national security, economy, agriculture, power, oil and gas, transportation, education, and healthcare, with special emphasis on economy and security.
What immediately stands out about this cabinet is that it is the largest since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999, and given Nigeria’s current economic situation, this is somewhat disappointing as it signals a resort to “big government” with heavy cost implications. President Olusegun Obasanjo began in 1999 with a cabinet of 42 Ministers (1999 – 2003), which he later reduced to 27, and had increased to 30 by the time he was leaving office in 2007. In 2007, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua had a 39-member cabinet. President Goodluck Jonathan appointed a cabinet of 33 Ministers (2011-2014), and later 37 just before the 2015 general elections. In 2015, President Buhari appointed 36 Ministers, later increased to 42 in 2019. Although 45 Ministers were sworn in yesterday, it must be noted that President Tinubu actually nominated a total of 48 Ministers – three of whom were told to await further screening – Stella Okotete (Delta) Senator Abubakar Danladi (Taraba) and Nasir el-Rufai (Kaduna). El-Rufai has since announced that he is no longer interested with a cryptic Marley-an “Who The Cap Fits” declaration that “man to man is so unjust…your best friend could be your worst enemy”. That is another interesting matter worthy of full commentary. But if you were to add a list of 45 ministers, which may possibly increase to 48 later, to the 20 slots for Special Advisers earlier approved by the Senate for the President, and the accompanying appointment of Senior Special Assistants and Special Assistants, President Tinubu is set to run the most bloated government since 1999. This is curious in the light of the fact that many Nigerians had expected a lean government, to save costs and increase efficiency.
The current state of Nigeria’s economy is frightening, with over 113 million Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty; headline inflation at 24.08%; food inflation – 26.98%, Nigeria’s unemployment rate is about 41%, debt service to revenue ratio is calculated at about 90%, total debt is over N81 trillion, the available band for more borrowings is extremely narrow. Under such a scenario, the basic expectation would be for government to trim its size at all levels and tighten its belt. The only thing we have heard is the Federal Government asking the people to make sacrifice: fuel subsidy has been removed, resulting in increase in the pump price of fuel, the fuel exchange rate has been harmonized resulting in over 16% depreciation of the Naira, and a rampaging epidemic of empty pockets among the people, with the people trooping to the streets in Yola, Port Harcourt, Ibadan and elsewhere pleading with the government “to please allow them to “breathe”.
On top of it all, the Federal Government has announced plans to achieve an 18% tax to GDP ratio by 2024, and even if Taiwo Oyedele, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Tax and Fiscal Policy Reforms says this would not mean higher taxation, the simple logic is that the people would be required to make more sacrifices to help government generate much-needed revenue. What is shocking is that whereas government is imposing a regime of austerity, the Nigerian government at all levels is not showing a similar commitment in the governance process, and this much was confirmed again yesterday by the sheer size of the Federal Government. Many would recall that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abass upon assumption of office recently announced the recruitment of 33 aides! The Senate President also has a similar number of 33 aides, and in total, the 10th National Assembly members have since June appointed about 3, 000 legislative aides! It is worse at the state level. The Governor of Adamawa State, Ahmadu Fintiri recently appointed 47 media aides; the Governor of Kano State Abba Yusuf has appointed 97 persons as special advisers and assistants. In Niger state, Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago has 131 aides, all of them women. Whereas the President may claim that he is exercising his powers under the Constitution, he has in actual fact created more Ministries. Obasanjo at a time had 27 Ministers, and still fulfilled Constitutional provisions. Jonathan had 33, and still did not violate the Constitution. It is to be expected that Tinubu’s Ministers would soon announce their own aides, further bloating the size of government. Under Tinubu’s government, the cost of governance would shoot through the roof, with the expansion of size, staff and bureaucracy.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), the media and other informed groups in society had urged before now, that one of the main priorities of President Tinubu’s “Restored Hope” agenda should be the implementation of the famous Oronsaye Report – an 800-page 2012 Report on the Restructuring and Rationalization of Federal Government Parastatals, Commissions and Agencies which stated that the Federal Government alone has 541 parastatals, 929 MDAs, and that there should be mergers, complete abolitions, and rationalizations to block wastages and duplications and ensure efficiency. It is obvious that President Tinubu has no intention to take a look at the Oronsaye Report. In its June 2023 Nigeria Development Update (NDU), the World Bank had also recommended that for Nigeria, it was now “time for business unusual”. It seems so obvious that well, business will remain as usual in the governance arena, and our fear is that a day may well come when Nigerians will begin to praise President Buhari as things currently stand! And that will be a completion of our worst nightmare.
The process of appointing these Ministers was not impressive enough. Those who know Tinubu and his antecedents were convinced that he would hit the ground running and that he would have no difficulties identifying strong talents, a team of the best and the brightest that would help him deliver on his mandate. But it has been one big anti-climax. It took close to the 60-day deadline, and additional days for the President to come up with a list of party loyalists, former Governors, close advisers from his days in Lagos, and a few technocrats. Nine former Governors, with one of them grudgingly withdrawing conveys a veil of staleness, no matter the experience that the former Governors may bring to the table. The kind of unsureness that governed the list is also embarrassing. During the screening process, the President had to substitute the name of the Kano nominee, Maryam Shetty. Nobody even had the decency to inform her. She only got to know when she got to the Senate for her screening. Nobody deserves to be treated so shabbily.
To worsen matters, it only occurred to the President on the. eve of the inauguration of the Ministers to make last minute changes. He reassigned the 66-year-old Abubakar Momoh whom he had named as Minister of Youth to the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs. Young Nigerians had complained that a 66-year-old politician as Minister of Youth was an odd choice. The Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) had also raised an alarm about the non-inclusion of the Niger Delta in the list of Ministries. Then the Ministers-designate for Transportation, Interior, and Marine and Blue Economy were reshuffled. The Ministry of Environment and Ecological Management was renamed as the Federal Ministry of Environment. This back and forth looks untidy. It shows lack of preparedness, someone certainly was not paying attention to details about credentials, nomenclature and vested interests. If the President’s excuse is that the last-minute reshuffling is to ensure that the right persons are in the right places, then his attempt does not go far enough. It is one of the reasons why we argue that portfolios should be attached to Ministerial nominations to provide enough room for adjustments before the nominees are eventually confirmed. Further, there are fewer women than expected on the Ministerial list, and there are persons who think that the women have been given decorative positions. This is feedback that the President should pay attention to and address as he makes other appointments into the MDAs. And why is there no person living with disability on the list?
For the most part, the Ministerial list looks like an attempt by the President to settle political IOUs. Every President in appointing their first cabinets feel obliged to settle those who worked for their victory. But even at that, there are many aggrieved APC members and foot-soldiers who must genuinely feel left out, because they believe they deserve to share the spoils of victory. However, Nigerians are not interested in “jobs for the boys”. They want a quality team. This is why the present cabinet must be rejigged within a year or 18 months at best. President Tinubu must constantly move people around and recruit only the best. Ministerial positions must not be treated as chieftaincy titles. The kind of sit-tight, “Kabiyesi syndrome” that we witnessed under President Buhari, with some Ministers staying in office for eight years and remaining anonymous and ineffectual throughout - must not be allowed to happen this time around. Nigerians want Ministers who are ready to serve, not traditional chiefs of Aso Villa.
The President has talked about giving the Ministers a Performance Index. This is also known as Key Performance Indicators (KPI), very important but it must not be couched in general terms such as the emphasis on the eight-point agenda. It must be Ministry and sector-specific, and if any Minister does not show enough promise or capacity within the next 18 months, he or she must be turned adrift without fear or favour. Nigerians are impatient. The Federal Executive Council must be seen to work truly in the best interest of the people. It is standard practice to organize seminars and retreats for newly appointed Ministers. Whatever syllabus may have been chosen for the class of 2023 certain specific subjects must be addressed. It is not enough to pack documents inside conference bags – a copy of the Constitution, Public Service Rules and Regulations, the Procurement Act or some other briefing notes – NO. There must be a proper breakdown of expectations Ministry by Ministry and robust discussions. Nigerians don’t like to read except when there is an examination to be passed; putting documents together and hoping that the Ministers would read on their own would be presumptuous. Many of them probably don’t know what their Ministry is all about. They have to be taught and guided.
As is often the case, they are probably thinking of the contracts that they will award through their Ministries and what would be in it for them. They need to be given a crash course in the details of the Procurement Act and Public Service Rules. Out of ignorance, many past Ministers depend on civil servants who lead them by the nose and astray. Having sound knowledge of procurement is part of the process. It is tied to budget performance and defined regulations.
These Ministers also need to be told that they are Ministers of the Federal Republic with responsibility to all the people and parts of Nigeria, regardless of religion, political affiliation, class or gender and the President was right in stressing this yesterday. Cronyism, nepotism, prejudice are the major afflictions in Nigeria’s governance process. New Ministers would come under severe pressure, both external and self-imposed, to use their positions to settle their own incurred political costs. The party in their wards, local governments and states would call on them to remind them that it is their slot they are using and that they owe them an obligation to fund the party in the state, employ children from the state, award contracts to contractors from within the party and ensure major projects are brought to the community that produced them because “it is their turn”. Nigerians are very good at blaming leadership but the followers themselves are mean. A Minister would be asked to come and help pay hospital bills for newly delivered babies, even when he had no knowledge of the pregnancy: “Honourable Minister, we thank God oh, your wife has just put to bed”. The Minister is likely to be confused because his wife probably gave birth to his last child 15 years ago! But every woman in his state would suddenly become his wife, every pregnancy his own, every wedding must receive his blessing. Some other pressures are self-imposed. To keep the job, for example, some Ministers think that they are obliged to build goodwill among the informal circle around the President – very dangerous people - who exploit their proximity to the President to amass unmerited wealth. They promise appointments and access, and bear tales by moonlight. Many Ministers make the mistake of focusing more on this informal ring of vipers, but others commit the crime of thinking that they must take every project to the President’s home-town or state, to gain favour as a result. Tinubu must discourage such sycophancy.
Pastor Tunde Bakare has already warned about an emerging pattern of “imperial Presidency” in his recent State of the Nation Address. The term as described in a book of the same title by Arthur M. Schlesinger (Houghton Mifflin, 1973, 2004) refers to the abuse of power, its reckless use, and a President getting carried away with his own importance. No government can break the law without the President’s consent, because the buck stops at his desk. Nigerians have a way of misleading their Presidents with excessive sycophancy and Aso Rock is the headquarters of sycophancy. Even the best of men can be tempted like Samson, the Israelite. There are those men who in the President’s presence would immediately go down on their knees and start crawling towards him from a distance, bowing and scraping the floor and intoning “rankadede sir”. Others would prostrate. Oftentimes, such persons are clutching a file under their arms. They want the President’s signature. Whoever acts in that manner should be asked to stand up immediately and stop scraping the floor! Tinubu must make it clear that such flattery would not work with him. Work has begun for the Ministers. It won’t be long before the misfits among them will be exposed.
“Bros, you dey town?”
“Yes. Where you think say I for dey. I no tell you say I dey travel”
“I thought maybe you would have gone to Niger.”
“Go Niger go do wetin?”
“I hear some civil society groups are compiling names of persons who will go to Niger to talk to the coup leaders to give peace a chance, forget about the coup and reinstate President Muhammad Bazoum in power.”
“Of all the pressing problems that I have in Nigeria: fuel price has gone up, diesel is expensive, landlord has announced rent increase, school fees have been raised, Tinubu’s economic policy is not working, how on earth do you think that my main priority should be what goes on in Niger? People are fighting their former colonial masters, they have removed a President that is a lackey of the West, the people of Niger themselves are on the streets jubilating and hailing the coup leaders and you say, I should go there to talk to them. Please, in my capacity as what?”
“As a notable noise maker in the Nigerian society, and a champion of democracy. This is about democracy, and the need to preserve it in the West African region, from the Sahel to the rest of Africa. ECOWAS has already taken up the responsibility. The Heads of States and Governments have imposed sanctions. They have dispatched a standby force.”
“Yes, yes, I know. They have the support of the African Union, the European Union Commission, and the United Nations. Americans, the French, the Germans have military bases in Niger. They did nothing until shege happened, and now it has become our collective responsibility. Please my main responsibility now is how to pay school fees next month, and how to buy diesel for the generator at home and fuel the cars. Whatever they do in Niger is not my personal problem right now. Have you not heard that here in Nigeria, we too are trying to breathe?”
“Many Nigerians are concerned because Niger is our sister country. We have strong religious, cultural and historic affinities. Are you aware that the head of the military junta in Niger is married to a Nigerian woman from Kangiwa in Kebbi State, while the Emir of Dosso in Niger pays homage to the Emir of Argungu in Nigeria? Seven states in the North share a border of about 999 miles with Niger, including Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina. Some people sleep in Nigeria and eat breakfast in Niger. That is how close we are. And even if you are not aware of anything, are you not aware that when President Buhari was leaving office one thing he said is that if anybody disturbs him too much in Nigeria, he will relocate and join his kith and kin in Niger? Now the old man has nowhere to go. He is stuck here. You people complain too much in Nigeria. The people in Niger are in a revolutionary mood.”
“I sympathize with President Buhari. His plight must be a lesson to all persons who assume dual citizenship as allowed by the laws of Nigeria. You could find yourself in a situation where there could be issues in your two countries and you are caught betwixt and between. If gbege come gbege now, where President Buhari go run to? Father country no well, mother country dey boil. This is why I always say what we need in Africa is good governance and responsible leadership.”
“But I think that there is now some light at the end of the tunnel, though. Nigeria’s Council of Ulamaas, the Jamma’tu Izalatu Bidiah wa Ikamatu Sunnah (JIBWIS) led by the Chairman, visited Niger on Sunday. They were granted audience by the coup leaders. They met with President Abdourahamane Tchiani himself and the newly appointed Prime Minister. The coup leaders in fact sent their apologies to President Tinubu for having refused previously to grant audience to the delegations that he sent before now: President Patrice Talon of Republic of Benin, a Nigerian delegation comprising former Governor of Katsina State, Aminu Masari, Head of Nigeria’s National Intelligence Agency and Nigeria’s Chief of Air Staff, subsequently, President Mahamat Idris Deby of Chad also went to Niger, and thereafter too, General Abdusalami Abubakar and the Sultan of Sokoto. Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi went to Niger in his capacity as the head of the Tijanniya sect. They granted him audience. The Council of Ulammas from Nigeria also went there. They met with them. I am afraid Niger may have been taken over by Jihadists and terrorists, right on our doorstep. Afterall, President Alassane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire pointedly accused them of terrorism. The good news is that they now say they want to dialogue with ECOWAS.”
“It is because the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS, the EU Commission, France and those who donate money to keep Niger going are beginning to bite hard. Yes, Niger is rich in Uranium, the seventh largest deposits in the world, but it is also a poor country that depends on about $20 billion worth of international aid per annum. The sanctions are actually not enough. I assume that the coup leaders are now panicking. The thing to do is to add more sanctions. Nigeria should take the lead by telling our daughter from Kebbi state who is married to the coup leader to pack her bags and come back home. That is one sanction that will hit home. I don’t trust Tchiani. ECOWAS must resolve to hit him hard below the belt.”
“You know sometimes, I don’t understand you. We are discussing peace, diplomacy and international relations, you are reducing everything to marital issues. What if your sister says it is in fact the coup leader of Niger that she wants and ECOWAS can go to hell, will you go and force her to leave her husband because Nigeria wants to show it has power even in the bedrooms of Niger?”
“I don’t trust General Tchiani and his men. Look at how they snubbed Nigeria, the giant of Africa”.
“Leave that giant thing. Nobody considers Nigeria a giant anymore. In fact, it is so bad, if President Tinubu himself dares to go near Niger, they will arrest him and lock him up with Bazoum and serve him agbado which they must have heard he likes a lot. And nothing will happen. In fact, some Nigerian will say it serves him right. Please leave that matter about being a giant. Nobody sees Nigeria as a giant anymore please.”
“Those boys in Niger will detain Nigeria’s President? That will be an assault on the sovereignty of Nigeria. Then, the war that nobody wants will begin immediately”
“My friend, go and calm down. You think all the Nigerians who have been saying Nigeria should not commit to any act of aggression don’t know what they are saying? ACF, Katsina Forum, Afenifere, Council of Ulamaas, HURIWA, Senator Shehu Sani, NLC, PDP, LP, you think they don’t know what they are saying? Nigeria is broke. It cannot finance any major military operation that is likely to end up as proxy war between the East and the West. It also cannot afford a full-scale war in its backyard. And what does Nigeria stand to gain from committing troops to an operation in Niger?”
“Peace and stability at home. That is Nigeria’s national interest, particularly to prevent the coup virus from spreading from the Sahel region into the West African heartland. It is not in Nigeria’s interest to have a coup anywhere around its vicinity. Nigerian citizens at the moment cannot breathe at the moment. If they get suffocated further, you don’t know what they can do. We may have to use Niger to send a strong lesson to anybody that werey is disturbing his or her head.”
“Have you thought of the implications of joining ECOWAS to send troops to Niger? Nobody knows the reaction we will get. Terrorism in the Northern borders, more refugees trooping into Nigeria, the possibility of aggrieved Nigerians supporting Niger, and sabotaging their own country. If I were President Tinubu, I will borrow myself small sense, and tread cautiously. Niger is a Banana peel for President Tinubu. He should not step on it.”
“I see we are a country of cowards. ECOWAS is a community of shadow-boxers. They don’t even have a standby force anyway. Just making mouth. In the next few days, I imagine that Tinubu and ECOWAS will try to do damage control and save face.”
“I think the former Governor of Jigawa State, Alhaji Sule Lamido, former Minister of Foreign Affairs put his fingers on it when he said Tinubu has no experience in international diplomacy, and he should seek the help of former Heads of State and Presidents of Nigeria. And he is right. This is not the Kabiyesi rulership of Lagos State. This is something far more complex, because of the international dimensions. Nigeria is bigger than the swashbuckling, triumphal, “awalokan” boys from Lagos.”
“Please can we talk about something else?”
“Did I not hear that one Nigerian aircraft on its way to Niger has crashed somewhere in the North? Those are the people you say are sending apologies to Tinubu? If they want dialogue, then on what terms? Will they listen to ECOWAS?”
“Can we change subject? It looks like Pastor Tunde Bakare has joined the ranks of those criticizing Tinubu? Did you listen to his state of the nation address on Sunday? Vice, Virtue, Time: three Things That Cannot stand Still.”
“What prophecies did he make? Did he predict that the Naira will be N2,000 to the dollar by October and that the pump price of petrol will be about N900 per litre?”
“He said more than that. He spoke truth to power. He said Nigeria is on a downward slope under Tinubu, and that what we have is an imperial presidency and leadership by impulse”
“Pastor Bakare is one of the original founders of the ruling APC, Nigeria’s ruling party.”
“He said APC could never have won the 2023 general election if there was no split in the PDP, and that President Tinubu is showing a tendency to act before thinking.”
“He said that? Isn’t that anti-party?”
“I think the man was speaking under the influence of the Holy Spirit. I heard him saying with 48 Ministers, Tinubu is running a bloated government and abusing the tenets of neoliberalism, and that there cannot be any economic reform without economic justice, and the poor must be allowed to breathe.”
“Yes, yes, yes, on that one, he is right. The poor in Nigeria are suffocating. That is why they are now protesting in Yola, Ibadan, Port Harcourt, and Kano due to the high cost of living. We, the people, just want to breathe. The people are saying let government remove its knees from our necks and not choke us to death like George Floyd was choked to death in the US.”
“You know Pastor Bakare even said Godwin Emefiele, the embattled and suspended CBN Governor is a victim of vendetta, and political impunity, who is being made a scapegoat.”
“I won’t be surprised if Pastor Bakare is accused of anti-party activities and he is expelled from the APC. Has Mr. Dele Alake responded to him yet?”
“I have not seen anything. No, not yet.”
“You can be sure the President’s spokespersons are still loading their bazooka. When they fire, you will hear the boom, boom of attacks on Pastor Bakare.”
“And you think the Pastor will be bothered? Na dem dem. If they fire bazooka, he will respond with an inter-continental ballistic missile!”
“At home and abroad, just creepy stories all over within 75 days of Tinubu in office. Punitive economic policies that impoverish the people. A Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that publishes a balance sheet for the first time after seven years that is fit only for the dustbin. An uninspiring cabinet list. Mediocre performance in international relations Oh, what a curious set!.”
“Oh, come on. I can think of one or two sweet stories. The Super Falcons did well in the Women’s World Cup. They may have lost out in the Round of 16, but they were good, and they deserve to be celebrated truly. Also under Tinubu, our girls won the AfroBasket Championship for the fourth time in a row, beating their arch-rivals, Senegal 84 -74. That’s something to cheer about. And our boy, Anthony Joshua knocked out Helenius in the seventh round, his first knock-out in three years… let’s be fair.”
“Yeah, I also saw the Governor of Osun State, Jackson Ademola Adeleke hosting Rasheedat Ajibade and Rofiat Imuran, two Super Falcons from Osun State and celebrating them with Jacksonian dance steps. Quite refreshing.”
“The Governor of Osun is a naturally happy man. He is always giving us good content. He should consider opening a Tik Tok page on social media, and that can be a good source of non-oil revenue for Osun state! He will beat all social media influencers at their game. He is just a natural entertainer. Nice one.”
“So which two teams do you think will make the Women’s World Cup final? Four teams are already in the semi-finals. Spain vs Sweden today. Australia vs England tomorrow.”
“I must confess this year’s Women’s World Cup has been top-notch. Record attendance. Impressive quality of play. In fact, some of those female teams are so technically proficient, if they play against the current Super Eagles of Nigeria, our male national team, they will serve them woto woto. But do I want England to win? No. For defeating Nigeria without putting up a convincing performance, No, please. Australia should beat them and Spain or Sweden should win.
“This is exactly what Pastor Bakare calls the politics of vendetta oh. Can you see that there are no saints anywhere?”
“Not exactly the same thing. I have a right to protect my country’s interest. I still don’t understand the overriding national interest that Nigeria wants to protect in Niger. I keep saying that the time may have come when we have to review this mantra about Africa being the centre-piece of Nigeria’s foreign policy process. Nigeria must be Nigeria’s number one interest, not the ego of ambitious politicians – call it Nigerian exceptionalism.”
“I hear you. Na here we dey, everything go soon clear for everybody eye. Make all of una dey talk your talk. Na here we dey as Dede dey.”
It seems to me, with due respect, to every party concerned, that while we are all obsessed with the contemporary, topical issues of Ministerial nominations, the likely conflict with Niger and the noted desperation of the Northern Senators and Elders Forum, as well as others across the country, to prevent same, in addition to the concerns about palliatives and the rising cost of living, or the unresolved battle with organized Labour (NLC, TUC), we may be overlooking something that may be relevant to the health and the future of Nigeria. I identify this hereunder as the menace and terror of Prophets – those self-appointed owners of direct telephone access to God and who on a daily, unrelenting basis inflict upon this community, what they claim to have heard from God. They expropriate the claim that God speaks to them alone, and that whatever they hear from God is the gospel truth. There is no mechanism to double-check. They don’t provide any data reports of their telephone conversation with God. They simply tell us this is what “my father told me”, and the rest of us are all expected to obey blindly. We are the multitude of orphans, whose Heavenly fathers, just in case everyone has a father in Heaven, may have been denied telephone access to the earthly realm and hence, the rest of us have to depend on their own God whom they covet with so much proprietorial control. The problem is the lack of accountability and the fact that nobody really knows who speaks to these so-called spiritual fathers.
I am convinced that this is one of those issues that we must begin to interrogate. To prepare the background, we do not deny the fact that Nigeria is one of the most religious countries in the world. Several studies place us amongst the top ten in the world. but compared to these other countries, anyone at all can agree that Nigeria is one country where religion has been most divisive and centrifugal. Over time, we have fought and experienced intra--religious and inter-religious wars. Religion is so ubiquitous in this country, there is hardly any street corner or community where you will not find either a mosque or a church. Many of these places of religious worship may start at a mushroom level, but they may soon grow into big oak, with adherents trooping in and out, claiming to be persons of faith, seeking the grace and eye of God. Religiosity has become so widespread, Nigerian Christians now organize services on Fridays to compete with Muslims, and on Sundays, Muslims reciprocate by holding worship services during church time. The result has been the unending conflict between Christians and Muslims who constitute on the average, on both sides of the equation, between 45 - 59% of the population, and a minority percentage of African traditional worshippers clamouring for space and recognition, as seen in the recent crisis in Osun State whereby Osun traditional worshippers were told pointedly that they could not and would not be allowed to celebrate their Isese festival in Kwara State because it is an Islamic State.
Section 10 of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution states clearly that there shall be no state religion in any part of the Federation. The law does not recognize any such thing as an Islamic state, even with the strange mongrel of the adoption of the Sharia in 12 states of the North, operationalized in those states as a criminal orthodoxy, completely against the spirit of the Constitution. Section 38 guarantees every citizen the right to freedom of thought, religion and conscience. Nigeria has Muslims and Christians almost in equal proportion, with animists constituting a small percentage of the remaining balance. If a country’s wealth were to be judged by the religiosity of its people, and their open demonstration of passion for God, Nigeria should be the wealthiest country in the world. Everywhere you turn in this country, there is religious piety on display. There is a church or a mosque in every corner. Every day, there are people proclaiming the call to prayer and the muezzin heralding the beginning of every dawn. And yet the bigger question is: why is Nigeria so religious, so prayerful and yet so poor? Max Weber in The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism had tried to draw a link between capitalism and religion, especially the Protestant ethic. The opposite is the case in our country. The Protestant ethic appears not to be working here. The Weberian concept of religion and prosperity has failed us, because the basic fundamentals have never been allowed to grow. And those fundamentals do not grow by accident. What we are left with is religion without the work ethic that can generate prosperity, nor the righteousness that exalts nations. What we are left with is religion as opium, superstition, a grand game of illusion and mind control, underlying Nigeria’s development crisis.
Over time, Nigerians have been co-opted into this web of delusion, whereby they blame God for everything, rather than locating our woes in the province of the failures of man. Having been failed by themselves, and by their leaders, Nigerians are quick to resolve every situation by declaring that “It is the way God wants it”. Who knows the mind of God? Who knows what God wants? The most recent demonstration of this is the humiliating rejection of Dr Mariam Shetty as the Ministerial nominee from Kano. She had woken up in the morning, dressed up gaily, looking forward to being screened by the Senate like others before her, only to be told upon arrival at the National Assembly, that her name had been replaced. Nobody had the decency, not even the President who nominated her, to make a phone call or send an emissary to stop her from being publicly embarrassed. If she had been given prior notice of the latest development, she would have stayed back. But nobody thought of her feelings as a human being. And how has she responded? She says as a person of faith, she leaves everything in the hands of God, and calls on her supporters not to despair. She is not alone.
When accidents occur, hops are dashed, and lives are lost needlessly, Nigerians are quick to blame God. There are many Nigerians who have trooped into politics, seeking even the highest offices in the land, because their shamanist had seen a vision that they would one day become the President of Nigeria. They borrow money, print posters, hire thugs to steal ballot boxes, and when they fail, they fight tooth and nail, because they are convinced that the God whose voice their spiritualists told them had sealed their fate in Heaven does not fail. While various religious denominations in the country are guilty, the biggest culprits are the Pastors of the Pentecostal variety who preach progress, prosperity and capitalism without the underlying ethics. Many of them are doing more harm than good. I use the word, “many” in order not to generalize. There may well be a few true preachers of the word who speak the truth and are genuinely moved by the spirit but we are indeed genuinely in the season of religious charlatanism, in a country dominated at an alarming rate by the tribe fictionalized by Wole Soyinka in The Trials of Brother Jero (1963), and Requiem for a Futurologist (1983) as cunning liars who hold the country down. The tribe has not reduced, rather it has flourished, in Soyinka’s lifetime, before his every eyes - the agony of those who think for society.
What I find perplexing is the manner in which these prophets expropriate and openly claim the omnipotence and the omniscience of God, who they claim to represent on earth. What stupefies is how they try to run a government of the world with their spiritual pronouncements, something not even the United Nations has been able to do, and which the free range of globalization has not made possible. Every day, I am astounded by the unending deluge of Pastors, Prophets, Prophetesses, men and women of God, some of them with churches small like the Lord’s manger or big like the Wembley stadium who claim to know the future and determine the fate of men. The more annoying part is that they have in their grips, at their fingers, a captive audience of believers who propagate their propaganda, and this sadly, includes a number of local media outlets who seem to base their profit margin on the reportage of prophecies by their favourite Pastors. They not only report the prophecies, they authenticate them subsequently and some of these publications have been turned into the PR wings of prophets and prophetesses. One of my favorite books on journalism is Francis S. Merrill’s Responsible Journalism. The manner in which some media outlets feed and water the propaganda machinery of end-time, Pentecostal churches is nothing short of irresponsible journalism. When a Pastor makes a so-called prediction, how does that amount to a statement of fact? Who verifies it? Which media house has a phone call to God? And yet, daily, we are inundated with reports of how this Prophet or Prophetess made this prediction two months ago and how it had come to pass. Where is the audit or regulatory body to determine that? The propaganda is often based on a press release by an aide to the Prophet.
Many of these Prophets and Prophetesses are taking us for a ride, more so as they are not subjected to any form of integrity test, not even by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). In the world of faith, anybody can just claim that he or she has heard the “Word” or has been called by the “Heavenly Father” and in a moment of self-induced epiphany start speaking in “tongues”. People have the freedom to worship their God the way they want, but they have no right to force others to go to Heaven in their own prescribed manner. In fact, there are people in this country, shocking as this may sound, who would rather go to Hell, if Hell exists hereafter and is not just a city in Europe and the US. The temerity of the shamanists/futurologists, hiding under the banner of God is what we deplore. Since the 2023 general election process in Nigeria began, there has been a plethora of predictions by men and women of faith. Many of them have constituted themselves into an alternative electorate. Hence, during the elections, they launched a trade in determining who would win or not. And after the elections, they have created their own spiritual election petition tribunals, from where they dictate to lawyers what to do and what not to do, with jejune, often commonsensical predictions about what the tribunals may come up with. They claim to have embarked on weeks of fasting or gone on a retreat to a Mountain and that “their Father” has spoken to them about everything from Ukraine to the Maghreb and the Ascension Island, and on the basis of their grand imaginings, their media allies ask us to believe, even when clear facts dictate otherwise.
I have seen, for example, cases of some Pastors predicting what would happen to election petition judges in the Presidential election if they do not rule out Tinubu because of a civil forfeiture and certificate issue in the United States. Obviously, some silks may be relying on the shamanists in their moves in this particular case, and thus disregarding basic principles of international civil litigation. It is elementary knowledge that as a general rule, Forum court does not apply foreign criminal law when it is not pleaded or proven directly or indirectly. Whatever conviction was done abroad has no relevance here. Our Constitution does not have a foreign court in mind. Matters that may be relevant would include marriage, divorce, or monetary awards in a foreign land, but even then, such cases must be registered in our laws, that is lex fori. Criminal offences are local offences, except where another country initiates a fresh trial within its own jurisdiction but even that could raise questions of status, subject, characterization, forum, capacity, double jeopardy and/or public policy. Our prophets, sitting down in their ecclesiastical shrines, after a few days of self-imposed fasting and having no firm knowledge of the facts, beaten black and blue by hunger, simply make divine, legal pronouncements based on metaphysical illusions. In their courts, there is no right of appeal once their God has spoken!
They have done enough damage already at private levels misleading many, breaking up homes, destroying lives, fouling up Nigerian politics with their unverifiable visions. On the positive side, they have done almost equal good, giving hope to the hopeless, and the millions of troubled souls in the land. Nonetheless, they must be restrained from taking over the governance process. Their expanding influence in the public space through the abuse of traditional and social media spaces, and unfettered access to the corridors of power, must be curtailed. This is without prejudice to their rights under Sections 38 and 39 of the Constitution, but is it possible to restrict them to the private value of religion, their denominations and the communities they relate with? These merchants of illusion are gradually usurping the functions of state institutions. Many of them give court rulings without regard to either the law or the facts of the case. They say they are moved by the spirit and they have a captive audience. No country should subject itself to being ruled by the capricious movement of unseen spirits and their earthly mouthpieces!
It is all the more disturbing because many of these Pentecostal pastors and prophetesses do not even base their pronouncements on the Scriptures. They sound more like motivational speakers, common sense maestros and closet newspaper editorialists. They have large followings. They must be told to stay within their areas of concern and avoid politics. Quite a surprise, none of them could offer a clear prediction on yesterday’s defeat of the Super Falcons by the Lionesses of England in what could have been a historic and extraordinary upset in the on-going Women’s World Cup. I won’t be surprised though if one of their media allies shows up, before weekend, to report that Prophet XYZ had predicted the outcome of the match since January 2000! When will the Church of Nigeria self-regulate and check the influence of the fortune tellers in cassock? Not even Friedrich Nietzsche’s Zarathustra was this ambitious.
One of the major sore points in the Nigerian story has been the negative role played by non-state actors in the making and the unmaking of Nigeria – those characters who drag the country back and down, those who seize state assets, those who steal our crude oil, the merchants of death and disgrace who denigrate and devalue the Nigerian green passport and collective humanity but there are also many non-state actors whose actions project the nation positively, reminding us that in the midst of the increasing mass psychosis in our land, the blood of humaneness still runs in some veins.
In this category, you would find the philanthropists – the men and women who give back to society and whose actions confront the rest of us with strong intimations of what it means to be human- Femi Otedola, Michael Adenuga, Aliko Dangote, Jim Ovia, Tony Elumelu, Mrs Folorunso Alakija, Otunba Subomi Balogun, now of blessed memory, Florence Otedola (DJ Cuppy), David Adeleke (Davido) and so on. While some of them may be associated with the state either directly or by proxy, a common link is the fact that they have shown a consistent pattern to identify with the downtrodden, the underprivileged, the poor and the down and out in society. I would place into this category the genuine non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that are doing quality work as a bridge between state and society, certainly not those camouflage, profit-seeking NGOs that do more harm than good and whose clandestine purpose is to access donor funding for selfish reasons. They know themselves. It would be a most useful academic exercise someday to inquire into the role of non-state actors, in a comprehensive, detailed and objective manner to locate their roles properly within the matrix of nation-building: the diverse personas involved, ideologies and complexities, reach, influence and impact.
I have tried to draw attention to this as I reflect on my attendance at two events on Friday, July 28, namely, the Air Peace/NIIA Sports Diplomacy Wall of Fame which took place in two parts: a morning event titled “The 4th Conversation: From Olympic Boycotts to Hosting the World – West Africa’s March to FIFA 2034”, which held at the premises of the Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) at Kofo Abayomi, Victoria Island, Lagos and in the evening, the Investiture of Air Peace Sports Diplomacy Ambassadors, at the Eko Hotel and Suites, also in Victoria Island Lagos. The key objective was to honour Nigeria’s 1976 Olympics team and the 1980 Green Eagles African Cup of Nations (AFCON) Team. I had more than one reason to be at both events, but the part that is directly relevant to this review is the fact that I am an Associate Fellow of the NIIA, which by the way earned me a reserved seat in the front row. But to return to my earlier point about positively-oriented non-state actors, I begin by drawing attention to the fact that both events were supported and sponsored by Mr. Allen Onyema and his company, the airline known as Air Peace.
Onyema and his team, with the support of consultants – Chief Segun Odegbami, Z-Edge Consulting’s Kikelomo Atanda-Owo and others came up with a plan to honour the men and women who could not participate in the 1976 Montreal Olympics in Canada, because of the decision by African countries to boycott the Olympics. The boycott was as a result of the apartheid politics in South Africa and especially New Zealand’s Rugby tour of South Africa at the time. African countries chose to boycott the 1976 Olympics because the organizing body allowed New Zealand to participate in the Olympics. Africa had made it clear that it would not participate in the Olympics if New Zealand, openly supporting the racist, apartheid government in South Africa was allowed to participate. African leaders made good their word. Nigeria went to the Olympics but it was the first country to leave, followed by Kenya. In total, 27 African countries boycotted the Olympics. Their exit almost crashed the 1976 Olympics, and the city of Montreal, the host city alone lost over $2 billion. But the point was made. The protesting countries had made an ideological point: racism was unacceptable especially as the Olympics was being held shortly after the 1976 Soweto massacre which resulted in the death of over 100 persons. It was one special moment in African history when Africans spoke with one voice even if two countries- Senegal and Ivory Coast went ahead to participate. The effect of the boycott was that many of the athletes who had prepared so much to compete and shine at the event had their dreams aborted. They had to make the sacrifice because of the choice made by their countries. Filbert Bayi of Tanzania who had been Commonwealth Games and world record holder in 1500 metres, who was looking forward to the Olympics in 1976 was denied the dream of participation. He was in Nigeria at the Friday events. So was Ron Freeman, US Olympics world record holder in 4 X 400 metres relay.
The whole idea was to honour the heroes from Nigeria who did not even get a chance to participate in the 1976 Olympics because Nigeria had taken an ideological position, from a foreign policy end on apartheid in South Africa. The other set of honorees were members of the 1980 Green Eagles squad that won the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) for Nigeria. It was a team that brought glory to Nigeria and unified the nation. On Friday, the joint forces of Allen Onyema’s Air Peace and the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs came together to honour and iconize these forgotten, under-appreciated heroes. It was a beautiful town and gown collaboration, signposting useful lessons in private sector, non-state actor participation in nation building, and the value of soft, sports diplomacy and the expansive scope of an intellectual think tank like the NIIA. Allen Onyema provided the funds and the logistics. NIIA gave it an intellectual cover and allure and provided the grounds for actual and useful historification.
As I did before in this same column with the examples of Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Femi Otedola, Tony Elumelu, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede and Otunba Mike Adenuga, I recommend Allen Onyema for special commendation. Many would remember him as the entrepreneur who continues to use his wealth to support helpless Nigerians. When Nigerians were stranded in South Africa due to xenophobic attacks in September 2019, he sent his aircraft to South Africa at no cost to bring the distressed Nigerians back home, without collecting a kobo from the Nigerian government. In 2020, at the peak of the COVID-19 crisis, many Nigerians were stranded in many parts of the world, Onyema again dispatched his aircraft to rescue persons and deliver relief materials at no cost to the persons or government. Again in 2023, when crisis erupted in Sudan, Allen Onyema sent aircraft to Egypt to evacuate stranded Nigerians. At every point, he keeps showing that legacy creation is more important than the creation of wealth for profit motives. He told the audience at the NIIA on Friday, July 28, that he is motivated by love of nation, not wealth. “I cannot go to the grave with my wealth. It is better to use what we have to help our country and build a legacy”, he said. He got a standing ovation. He also received fulsome praise from Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, former DG of the NIIA (1975-83), and former Minister of External Affairs (1985 -87) who described him as “a noble Nigerian with generosity in his DNA” ” and further from Professor Eghosa Osaghae of NIIA who described Allen Onyema as a man who is “redrawing the contours of non-state actors.”
The irony is that this same Onyema who was the star at the NIIA last Friday has not been properly honoured by his country. His love for Nigeria remains unrequited and yet he keeps doing more. His name originally appeared in one of those last-minute National Honours List by the Buhari administration, but it was eventually removed before the event. It must be that some clowns in the corridors of power thought he didn’t deserve to be so honoured and probably smuggled their own unknown, less deserving names onto the list and they now parade themselves as persons worthy of recognition. Nigeria is a country where the thieves get the crown, and the more honest people are turned into spectators. When people are asked to give to their country, it is only fair to expect the country to appreciate them in return. Onyema is probably too modest to demand the recognition that he deserves.
His joint operation with the NIIA in the area of sports diplomacy is pointedly the catalyst for this review. He and the NIIA at the risk of sounding repetitive have done so well, and I must now add to the commendation list Professor Eghosa Osaghae, an absolutely brilliant scholar, teacher and author who since his assumption of office as DG NIIA (2021) has transformed that place, and reinvented it as an intellectual power house for Nigeria. NIIA is Nigeria’s equivalent of Britain’s Royal Institute of International Affairs, or Chatham House as it is more commonly known, and America’s Council of Foreign Relations (CFR). These bodies do research, think for government and recommend policies. The NIIA has had an illustrious history under the watch of Dr Lawrence Fabunmi, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, Professor Gabriel Olusanya, Professor George Obiozor, Professor Ibrahim Gambari, Professor Joy Ogwu, Professor Osita Eze, Professor Bola Akinterinwa and others, but Professor Eghosa Osaghae has brought a new dynamism to the place. For a while, NIIA became an events venue for book presentations, birthday lectures and all kinds of NGO events, a watering hole for photographers and people selling all kind of things, but Eghosa Osaghae has cleaned up “his father’s place” and restored it to its original glory established by “NIIA ancestors” like Professor Akinyemi who correctly stood in for President Olusegun Obasanjo as Chair of the occasion and did an excellent job of it.
Osaghae is a product of the finest tradition of scholarship, the Ibadan School of Political Science and he has in the course of his career distinguished himself as a teacher, prolific scholar, orator and administrator. His outlier qualities were on display on July 28 to the benefit of the institution that he leads. NIIA now has a transformed courtyard where there is a wall of fame, honouring all the heroes who missed the 1976 Olympic because they had to make a sacrifice and respect their country’s resolve to stand against apartheid in South Africa, and the 1980 Green Eagles who won the 1980 African Cup of Nations. The names of these heroes are now forever enshrined in a wall of fame at the NIIA courtyard. It is a long list – names like Modupe Oshikoya, Gloria Ayanlaja, Benjamin Omodhiale, Taiwo Ogunjobi, John Okoro, Chuks Abigide, Bruce Ijirigho, Dele Udoh, Dennis Otono, Emmanuel Okala, Joseph Erico, Mudashiru Lawal, Christian Chukwu, Godwin Odiye, Haruna Ilerika, Sanni Mohammed, Samuel Ojebode, Kunle Awesu, Segun Odegbami, Adokiye Amaesimeka, Sylvanus Okpala, Shefiu Mohammed, Baba Otu Mohammed, Felix Owolabi, David Adiele, Henry Nwosu, Okey Isima, Charles Bassey, Obisia Nwakpa, Davidson Andeh --- a long list of 57 names! Those names are now emblazoned forever on a wall of fame at Nigeria’s Institute of International Affairs, turning that foreign think-tank into a tourist/intellectual centre under Professor Osaghae’s watch.
The other high point at the morning event was the keynote address by Professor Idy Uyoe who gave a thrilling, engaging presentation on the theme of the day. He took us through the history of the apartheid, racist regime in South Africa and why Africans had to stand up in support of their long-suffering brothers in South Africa, the 1976 boycott of the Olympics, the heroic 1980 Green Eagles as the Super Eagles were formerly known, and then the question which he posed and answered: Is it possible to bring the FIFA World Cup to West Africa in 2034, and how? Uyoe kept us glued to our seats and the screen, the first event in the NIIA 4th Conversation series. It is most apposite that the organizers have started with such an important theme as the value of sports as a tool of soft diplomacy, but more importantly, the need to recognize the contributions of the nation’s sports heroes. In Nigeria, sports heroes are rarely remembered. Jerry Okorodudu, 1994 USA Olympics star died recently. His corpse was seized for a few days because his family could not pay a certain N600, 000 hospital bill. In 2019, multi-billionaire, Mr. Femi Otedola had to pay the medical bills of former international and coach, Peter Fregene. He also did the same for Christian Chukwu, who by the way was at the events on Friday in Lagos, looking good, now ageing well. Nigeria’s sports heroes deserve better treatment.
The more telling import of the day’s event was driven home at the evening investiture event of Air Peace Sports Diplomacy Ambassadors at the Eko Hotel and Suites. Having been duly told that pepper soup and jollof rice would be served aplenty, I showed up and stayed till after midnight. The intellectual part having been dispensed with during the day, Air Peace and Allen Onyema rolled out the drums. It was a night of fun, fest, felicity and feferity to celebrate our heroes past and the living legends that through sports did Nigeria proud. Many of them were in attendance physically, those who had passed were represented by family members. Time has passed. The year 1976 was 47 years ago. It has been 43 years ago since Nigeria won the Cup of Nations. Half of the heroes that were in the hall could not climb the stairs to the stage. Quite a few relied on walking sticks for mobility. It was an emotional moment. These were the same athletes who broke records in the prime of their time. These were the same footballers who once upon a time shut down the city anytime they played at the National Stadium and inspired the flowery, poetic genius of sports commentators like Ernest Okonkwo and Ishola Folorunsho. The best of them looked truly like time has passed. Allen Onyema and Air Peace gave them plaques of honour, decorated them with sashes of honour, gave them a cash gift of N1.5 million each, and free air tickets on Air Peace to their chosen destinations locally and internationally. There were mushy tears of joy! Oh, what a night, made even more memorable with interlude performances by Timi Dakolo, the Extreme Dancers, Chief Ebenezer Obey Fabiyi, KCee and Ludareh Music. There was a lot to eat and drink.
Nigeria has an obligation to become a country that looks out for its best in all disciplines and provides for them even when they are past their prime, and this can be best done, through collaborations with the private sector. There are many more to honour. Well done, NIIA. Thank you, Air Peace.
The other day President Bola Tinubu announced that Nigerians are going through the equivalent of childbirth pains, but his administration is determined to ameliorate the pains, provide succor and make life better for all. During his Presidential campaigns, he told Nigerians – emi lo kan, that is in Yoruba -“it is my turn”. He also told us “e lo fokan bale”, that is don’t worry, I would be there for you as he explained that phrase. He, practically, spiritually wished himself into power and has since his assumption of office with all the baggage about unresolved court matters, confronted, through proxies, big challenges from the People’s Democratic Party and the Labour Party (LP).
What we see is that the President has continued to play “Rose Garden politics”, grab the power, hold it, and be seen to be taking charge and be seen also to be doing so, even as the opposition continues to raise questions of legitimacy. It is the courts that would determine that, eventually, but more than any other time in Nigerian history, the judex is in the eyes of the storm, exposed to the most excruciating scrutiny. Indeed, the judiciary in spite of itself has been dragged right to the bottom of the arena, in what when reviewed would come across, as one of the most difficult moments in the history and trajectory of the Nigerian judiciary. Our Lordships are in a difficult place. They carry a burden to do justice, and they also have to be seen to be doing so. They are faced with a political arena where expectations about risks and outcomes are the subjects of confrontation. The judex are expected to be above board at all times and to dispense justice without minding whose ox is gored. The more liberal characters in this conversation claim that they are looking for justice, and that justice is the “be-all-and end-all” of the judicial process. But. really, what is justice? Pontius Pilate sked “what is truth? And I wager a bet that the present imbroglio over the 2023 Presidential elections would not be resolved on the basis of questions of legitimacy, but law, public policy and public interest. I stand to be corrected if the pendulum swings otherwise.
This piece however is not necessarily about Tinubunomics, stricto senso, as the title indicates. It is about what I consider the satirical sides of the same phenomenon. Abroad, out there are the details that Nigeria’s inflation rate is now 22.79(%. Fitch, an international rating agency tells us that we should in fact be looking at 25.1% in due course, and that real GDP growth is likely to slow down to 2.7% in the face of high living costs. Debt service to revenue ratio is about 97%, so high that members of the Afenifere, a socio-cultural group, have also now become emergency economists- much better than stoking the fires of ethnic difference- and are now offering economic counsel about how to eliminate debt and increase productivity, growth and values. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has just met – the first MPC since President Bola Tinubu assumed office, the first to be presided over by Mr. Folashodun Shonubi as Acting Central Bank Governor. Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) stands at 18.5%, and this is the first MPC meeting in a long while without the embattled, suspended Governor of the Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele.
Foreign Exchange Rate is as high as N868 to the dollar in the parallel market. Jobs and productivity are negatively impacted. Money supply is at an all-time high at over N9 trillion, pressuring the FX market. What should be our expectations then, today as the MPC concludes its meeting? What is the balance of risks? Nigeria’s MPC faces a dilemma like never before now: to tighten, ease or retain? Whichever way the MPC decides today, the signs look ominous. Traditional orthodox economics has not worked here for as long as we can remember because the fundamentals of this economy are askew, the necessary alignments between fiscal and monetary policies are not in place, productivity is low, growth is abysmal. Let us leave the economic jargons to the economists. If you have two or three of them in this space, they will express different opinions, quoting dead theories lacking connection with contemporary Nigerian realities and claiming, each one of them, to be right. You are better off avoiding their voodoo and mischief. Nigerian economists are only good when they gather to pick up appointments at the Policy Advisory Committees that the Federal and State Governments often aet up or when they hold their annual peppersoup-ing and jollof-ing conferences where they write reports that are at best photocopies of statements from the IMF, the World Bank, and the rating agencies. Many of them would soon show up as government appointees at both Federal and State levels, to collect government patronage and shake heads like experts. I doubt how much of an economist anybody can be in this environment, mouthing dead theories that don’t work here! Even Afenifere, a socio-cultural group is trying to fill the void! In some states, governments have declared shorter working days as if that is the solution. The economist and their clients have failed this country.
It is therefore about time that we brought this thing out of their textbooks and face hard reality to console ourselves as the affected people. There seems to be an emergency consensus that Tinubunomics, or “Jagabanomy” as it is otherwise known, is not working, 60 days in the making and implementation. We have been told “e lo fokan ba le”- our hearts are already palpitating. Mr Bayo Onanuga and Senator Dayo Adeyeye have both appealed to us to be patient, and that after these initial pains, there would be “everlasting joy”. Which everlasting joy, please, Senator Adeyeye? Our grandchildren are destined to pay back all the money that the APC government has borrowed with all the accrued interests? Nigeria is at a point right now that if it were possible, the dead would rise and carry placards in protest! The living are docile and is that because there seems to be some silver lining to this “childbirth pain”, to borrow President Tinubu’s words, that we are all going through? Tell us.
With due respect, I take my narratives from the streets. Yes, the country is hard, people are in pains, but has anyone noticed, especially in Lagos that thanks to Tinubu, people are now likely to become the most fit population in the world. Ordinarily, Nigerians do not like to walk about. They prefer the comfort of commuting up and down, and if possible, in air-conditioned buses and cars. This is beginning to change. What I have seen in Lagos is that more and more people are beginning to trek to work or wherever they want to go. Very early morning or at any other time of the day, it is normal to see people on their feet taking the entire stretch of the bridge, or the street, making small conversation by the side and heading towards a destination that is known to them. Thus, with the removal of fuel subsidy, Bola Tinubu has turned Nigeria into one large, fitness gym! Nigeria is the trek-a-thon country that may soon enter the Guinness Book of Records. Nigerians are beating the road with their feet more than the people in South Sudan, Syria, or Afghanistan due to the cost of fuel and public transportation. In the UK, the government is considering adding a few seconds to the green man at the traffic lights to give porky Brits some time to cross the road, because most of the population is obsess and slow. In Nigeria, the people are busy trekking. In due course, Nigeria would be left with persons looking like broom sticks, and no one should be surprised if Nigerian economists tell us that such a development would be a plus for public health.
Tinubunomics has also made us very attentive. I never used to check the fuel gauge in the car. But I do now. In fact, I don’t only check the gauge, I step out of the car to monitor the gauge at the fuel station and I note down the number of litres pumped into the car. This is no longer the time in Nigeria to act as a big man at fuel stations, sitting down there like a dumb fellow checking the phone while the fuel is being sold. Many of us are now fuel station policemen. It is not safe to trust the driver. It is not safe either to trust the fuel station attendant. Often, I have been tempted to take the fuel pump and serve myself. There is a way those attendants handle the pump. It looks like they have a method of reducing your purchase. Whatever happens, once I get back into the car, I ask questions about the fuel gauge. Is it full? Is it by the middle or is it around a quarter? This is something I never bothered to double-check in the past. But having now to fill a car that ordinarily takes N16, 500 worth of fuel with over N50, 000, I guess one may be excused for becoming a fuel gauge police. President Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal has tuned all of us into vigilantes. The only fear is that the number of persons with hypertension may be increasing without our knowing it. By the way, many car owners have abandoned their vehicles. They say driving a car is no longer a status symbol in this country. It is better to join the masses in the national trek-a-thon especially if you live around Ikeja! In Lagos, many wives and husbands who work on the island no longer go home. They stay back in the part of the city where God has put them. Tinubu has effectively separated families to teach that romantic lesson that distance makes the heart fonder. People are learning to stay where they earn their daily bread, without going up and down. We, the people are learning how to save costs.
Many husbands who are able to still go up and down have also learnt to redraw the map of their movements. What I have observed in this our Lagos is that husbands now go home early. What I know in this Lagos is that it is possible, and that has been the pattern over the years, for a husband to leave his office and go around town like a piece of smallpox affliction for hours: he stops somewhere to take isi-ewu, he goes off to an “Igbinedion joint” (If you know, you know), then he stops by at a tarmac somewhere to take a “point and kill delicacy.” Some other days, he mixes that up with a stop-over at Calabar Kitchen or any other favourite restaurant/tarmac of his choice. He burns petrol driving from one point to the other meeting up with friends, before he finally makes his way home in the evening either to hit the sack or slap, hit, punch his questioning wife or snarl at the children! Omo, that lifestyle is changing oh. Husbands now go home. They can’t afford the high cost of fuel. Tinubu may have reduced fuel subsidy but he has also introduced by stealth a national family stabilization and planning programme. Many housewives are silently praising him. Their yeye husbands are adjusting to the new economic reality and learning to come home when they should. It looks like practical economics. While the National Economic Council is talking about the possibility of increasing the national minimum wage, by the way, employers of labour in the private sector have been busy playing deaf and dumb. Have you heard any private sector employer trying to increase staff salary? They are all playing deaf and dumb, making the dire situation in which Nigerians have found themselves look like a government problem. Many husbands are now under strict control.
Major losers in the equation would include Tinubu’s allies: the National Prostitutes Association of Nigeria. In the course of the campaigns in 2022, their National Executive issued a public statement saying that they were solidly behind Tinubu, and they were standing on “his mandate”. They even promised to offer discounted services if Tinubu won. Have they? It is now appropriate to ask the Oloshos of Nigeria: How market oh? The simple answer is this: market is bad. Many years ago, as a romance journalist, I used to write a weekly column on prostitutes and brothels. I am not telling that story here, certainly not today. But what I know for a fact is that customer traffic is the oxygen of a prostitute’s life, and as a patron, you must know the best time to get a good bargain. Tinubu has ruined the market for our Nigerian and ECOWAS sisters! People are adjusting their personal budgets and the olosho has been yanked off. Side-chicks are also groaning! I am just waiting for this category of allies to write the President to remind him that they also supported him during his campaigns and that it would be unkind to deny them their own already assured palliatives that do not require National Assembly approval. They may even propose their own economic blueprint.
Please note further that with one policy move, the Jagaban has also solved the problem of traffic hold ups in Lagos and the expressways. The other day, I travelled out of Lagos, something I try to avoid if I can, because the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway is a prolonged nightmare for motorists. I was advised that the roads are freer these days and so I ventured out. To my utter shock, traffic moved, not just on the Expressway but also inside the city. By removing fuel subsidy, Tinubu has taken the additional title of Chief Traffic Controller of Nigeria. He has put an end to traffic congestion on many roads. On my way back to Lagos, the road was also free. Most of the problematic people who go about causing problems on the roads had gone home to their wives or concubines. Half of them are more or less stone-drunk anyway. Tinubu-mycin has put them where they should be.
I am aware nonetheless, to wrap it all up, that what I describe as the positive sides of Tinubunomics, or Jagbanomy may be dismissed as a threat to growth and productivity. But let’s look at it this way: since economists like to calculate the strategic value of the informal sector, I would like to know for example: how much value do prostitutes and brothels add to the Nigerian economy? Or perhaps, peppersoup joints? Needless traffic logjams? We have been told by at least two persons from the Tinubu camp: Mr Bayo Onanuga and Senator Dayo Adeyeye that we should all be patient and calm down. Sirs, Nigerians are the calmest and the most patient people in the world. We just want good governance, results and leadership. Is that too much to ask for?
One of the major issues begging for consideration as Nigeria and other stakeholders review the aftermath of the country’s 2023 General elections would definitely be the health of Nigeria’s political party system. It is a matter of fact that by the 90s, in an attempt to stem the tide of communism, one party states, and dictatorships around the world, the West recommended and supported multi-party democracy as the way forward, to ensure participation, inclusion, and fairness. This was packaged as a pill to address the menace of one-party states and authoritarianism and indeed many African countries, including Nigeria bought into it, and even went a step further to fashion our democracy after the American model.
For Nigeria, this was particularly instructive: in the First Republic, Nigeria had multiple political parties with strong, cultural, ethnic, and ideological identities, serving as major forces for social and political action, mobilizing the people on ideological grounds, and promoting democratic participation. The political system in Nigeria at that period may not have guaranteed stability, but it served as an intermediary with the people, and as a major force between the state and society. This came abruptly to an end in January 1966, with the intervention of the military and the emergence of Decree No 1 of 1966 which summarily imposed a unitary system on the country and abolished all existing political and cultural groups. The onset of military rule subsequently merely served the purpose of further truncating the growth of the country’s political system as a mechanism for social bonding, political choice and competition. The Murtala/Obasanjo administration of 1975-76, -1979 eventually completed the tortuous course of a military to civilian transition.
It was Obasanjo’s lot to see that through in 1979, amidst a cloud of arguments and litigation. The military had spent up to 12/13 years in power. They could not exactly be trusted. The politicians themselves could not be trusted. The emergent political parties had retained the ideological persona of old. It was possible to link the NPN, the NPP, the GNPP, the PRP and the Action Group to specific identities and ideologies. But something had also been omitted. The political parties became platforms for self-aggrandizement, and a play-ground for big men, with large egos. Nowhere was this more evident than in the then ruling party, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). The Chairman of the Party, A.M.A Akinloye had his name embossed on bottles of champagne. One Minister at the time in charge of transportation and head of the Presidential Task Force on Rice, Umaru Dikko, also an NPN party chieftain said Nigerians were lucky because nobody was eating from the dustbin. It didn’t take long before the dust bin would become the dinner table for many Nigerians and Dikko himself ran away and had to be intercepted and put in a crate to be summarily smuggled back to Nigeria as “diplomatic baggage.” He was lucky he escaped!
In 1983, the return to democracy failed and for another 16 years (Generals M. Buhari to I. Babangida, to S. Abacha to Abdusalami Abukakar), Nigeria was in the grips of military rule, with the soldiers dictating their own version of democracy. They chose everything, including the number of political parties, their logos, party chairmen and for how long they could be in power. Between 1983 and 1993, and thereafter, the military’s disdain for civilian rule was writ large, but they had civilian collaborators throughout that ugly season being the stomach-driven characters in every nook and cranny of Nigeria who would do anything for a mess of porridge. Political parties, party members and their chairmen became puppets in the hands of the military. This was in part what gave the Nigerian military the courage to annul the democratic elections of 1993. It was their underestimation of the people’s will, the determination of some of the political actors led by Chief MKO Abiola and the resolve of the international community that propelled Nigeria back to civilian rule in 1999.
Over the years, something had died along the line: the integrity of political parties as major building blocks in the process of democratic consolidation. Our political parties had become caricatures, and tools for the promotion of authoritarianism, thus emerging as regressive political parties that could be hijacked or compromised by particular interest formations. The failure to have a stable democratic party system has foregrounded the need to rethink the nature of the political party systems not just in Nigeria however, but also in other African countries where multi-party system democracy has not checked the appetite for dictatorship. Truly, in many African countries, inter and intra-party crises have been the bane of political instability, creating a situation whereby questions are now being raised about democracy in a number of African countries: Mali, Niger, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau. Nigeria is a bit more resilient than other African countries, given its size, and complexity, but it is time we began to worry about the fragility of our political party system beyond the centrifugal elements implanted therein by the military and which have remained enduring.
The foregoing reflection is inspired as you may now imagine by the travails of the Chairman and National Secretary of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), namely Senator Abdullahi Adamu, and Senator Iyiola Omisore who reportedly had to resign from their positions on the orders of President Bola Tinubu, 24 hours to the party’s scheduled meetings of the National caucus and National Working Committee (NWC). To many observers of the Nigerian political scene, this probably did not come as a surprise. Senator Adamu had used his own mouth to crucify himself the other week, when he came out publicly to claim credit for the victory of the APC and President Bola Tinubu, albeit still a matter of litigation, in the 2023 General Elections. He said he did not support President Tinubu during the APC party’s primaries in 2022, but that he was at liberty to support Senator Ahmad Lawan or anyone else. However, Tinubu having emerged, he mobilized the party under his watch to deliver victory for the party. He asked to be praised,not vilified.
The Presidential order that he and his National Secretary should hand in their resignation letters and stand down is “the praise” he has now received. With due respect, Senator Adamu made himself a target, he fell upon the sword of his own indiscretion. Now, he is being accused of mismanaging party funds. He even made the additional mistake of being seen to have complained about the President’s choice of party leaders in the National Assembly. He had to be given a soft landing by Tinubu’s allies who asked him to resign or taste disgrace at the party’s scheduled meetings. But nonetheless, this is a battle for the soul of the APC, for a control of the party by the new power brokers in town, a further indication of the “emilokan ideology of power.” When the APC emerged in 2014, it was an amalgam of unusual bedfellows – the CPC, the old ANPP (that is the Buhari wing), the Action for National Congress (ANC), that is the Tinubu wing, the new PDP (led by Bukola Saraki and a number of other fringe, come-and join smaller coalitions). Bola Tinubu was the arrow-head of that entire process, which is why he could boast that he made Buhari President.
As events unfolded in the last eight years, the Bukola Saraki wing of the coalition was the first to fall aside. The Buhari wing that was in charge used the power that had been thrown into their laps with almost primordial obsession. At a point, even Tinubu, the kingmaker, began to look like a spectator. His resolve to take back what he made available to others marks a strictly Machiavellian chapter in contemporary Nigerian politics. Certainly, there were bound to be casualties. The Chairman of the Party, Adamu tilted towards the CPC wing as did others: it would be naive for them to think they would survive. The worse part of it is that Tinubu’s allies are also even accusing Adamu of being a tyrant and they are asking him to account for some party funds that are allegedly missing. Tinubu and his allies are bent on house-cleaning! There would be more casualties. By the time they are done, the APC would be a version of the ACN, not CPC. Buhari’s people would probably end up begging. It is called party politics, the worst variety that we have seen since the first political party, Herbert Macaulay’s NNDP, emerged in this country in 1923.
But it is not only the ruling APC that confronts us with the crisis in Nigeria’s political system. Before now, the rival People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had to deal with its own version of chaos. In March 2023, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, then PDP Chairman, was barred from parading himself any further as National Chairman of the party on the basis of an ex parte, interim injunction granted by Judge M. I. Ikpochi of Benue State High Court, ruling in favour of a prayer to that effect brought by members of the Igorov ward in Benue State. Members of Ayu’s ward at home said he had not been paying his membership dues hence they were expelling him as a member of the party. Dr. Ayu confidently said he would obey the court and pursue the matter in court. And so he did. But in the first week of June 2023, his case was worsened when the Chief Judge of Benue State, Maurice Ikpanbese upheld the earlier ruling and annulled Ayu’s membership of the PDP. Effectively, Dr. Ayu, former Chairman of the PDP is today no longer a member of the party except he goes on appeal, and hopes to secure victory.
Anyone that is familiar with recent politics within that party would easily connect the dots and surmise that Dr. Ayu is paying a price for not supporting former Governor Nyesom Wike’s ambition to be the flagbearer of the PDP in 2022, ahead of the elections. He even had the temerity of openly supporting Atiku Abubakar and going to visit former Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal the day after the convention to declare him a messiah. The fall-out was that a group of five Governors led by Nyesom Wike, who became known as the G-5 swore that Ayu must be removed as PDP Chairman. They soon found other allies and they swore that they would block the chosen Presidential candidate of the party, Atiku Abubakar from winning in their states or becoming President of Nigeria. Their conscientious objection was clad in the garb of a preference for power rotation, the rule of law, and the alleged immorality of having the Chairman of the Party and the Presidential candidate coming from the same zone or a Northerner succeeding another Northerner as President of Nigeria. The G5, or the Integrity Group as the expanded body became known took their pound of flesh. The PDP lost the Presidential election. Ayu was politicked out of office. In many ways, his story is similar to that of Senator Abdullahi Adamu of the APC. Party Chairmen may talk as they wish about party supremacy but in Nigeria’s political parties, supremacy belongs to powerful individuals and forces within the party. Senator Abdullahi Adamu’s problems began earlier when the party’s National Vice Chairman (North-West) began to complain that he was running a one-man show. In 2015, Adamu Muazu lost his Chairmanship position in the PDP and was even accused of helping the opposition to win!.
The other political parties are not immune either. Shortly after the general elections, the Chairman of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNNP) tendered his letter of resignation, saying he wanted to give room for “fresh hands” to take over. Professor Alkali didn’t say more than that, but in a country where nobody wants any “fresh hands” to touch anything; that was quite loaded. He said clearly though, that the NNPP needed to be re-organized. But consider also the crisis in the Labour Party, the same party that everyone had praised and supported for putting up a remarkable performance in the elections. It didn’t take long before an intra-party crisis engulfed the party at both national and state levels, leading to litigations, name-calling, conspiracy theories, threats and abuses. The same party that was generally described as a “Third Force” in Nigerian politics splintered into factions. Rival Chairmen of the party and their supporters even fought in court premises.
It seems to me that the biggest threat to Nigerian democracy is how our political parties have not been able to extricate themselves from the stranglehold of the damage done to them by the military elite. This is partly why they are prostrate, redundant, and have failed as intermediaries. Every political party is driven by the ambition of an individual or a cartel. The individuals turn the parties into Special Purpose Vehicles for their own ambitions. They select those who run the parties, and they make the funds available. In the past, the parties existed on an “equal founder, equal joiner basis”. Members had membership cards and paid membership dues. These days, members wait for a rich individual to fund the party. The man with the deep pocket who funds the party appoints and disappoints as Nyesom Wike did to Prince Uche Secundus, former Chairman of the PDP and Iyorchia Ayu after him, and as Tinubu has done to Senator Adamu who got so bold as to question his ambition at a point. The men who emerge as party leaders are themselves driven by personal ambition. They want to be big men and hug the limelight. Who knows the Chairman of the Republican Party in the United States? I don’t see the American press discussing the Chairman of the Democratic Party either as an all-year round celebrity. Here, party officials are busy seeking relevance. When their sponsors win elections or see that they are beginning to develop a mind of their own, they drop them quickly. Parties are useful platforms for winning elections as defined in Section 221 of the 1999 Constitution, but after the party wins, nobody takes party supremacy seriously anymore here, especially in the absence of independent candidacy. It is assumed that the party Chairman and his allies have been paid for their services.
The dilemma of political parties could not have been better illustrated than the shabby treatment of party Chairmen across board since the return to democracy in 1999. Because the parties are weak, many of them come and go. After the 2019 general elections, the Electoral Commission, INEC, deregistered as many as 74 political parties for not winning a seat anywhere. In 2023, we had 17 registered political parties in the election, only 10 got a seat here and there, with the APC and the PDP being the more dominant parties. Our political party system is in urgent need of reform to prevent the prospect of a one-party state, in the hands of dictators whose personal will may be imposed on the entire state. In the meantime, let no one shed any tears for the fallen party bosses.
The last time Ms Hilda Effiong Bassey featured in this column was in a piece titled “Tales The Country Told Me: Hilda Baci and Seun Kuti” (ThisDay, May 16) wherein I commented on her courage and heroism for using her culinary skills to bring herself to global attention by breaking the Guinness World Record in cooking, what has now become known as cook-a-thon. Hilda Baci, 27, cooked for 100 hours at the Amore Gardens, Lekki, Lagos, from Thursday, May 10, till Monday, May 13. 2023. Her exploit was a big social media event, a big, welcome distraction for a Nigerian community that was becoming weary of corrosive and febrile politics arising from the country’s 2023 general elections. Celebrities trooped to the venue of the cooking marathon for photo opportunities. Hilda Baci became an instant celebrity too. Many defied the heavy rainfall to support her.
As it turned out, the Guinness World Record, after assessing her submissions ruled that she had in fact made up to 93 hours, 11 minutes - seven hours short of her target but remarkable enough to dethrone the then cooking marathon champion - Indian Chef Tata Landon who set the existing world record of 87 hours, 45 minutes in 2019. Ms Baci became an instant megastar. She won endorsements. She was given a royal reception by her home state of Akwa Ibom. She even got to meet billionaires and because she is backed by a good social media team, and looks really stunning, stylish, a head-turner in appearance on top of everything, she generated so much excitement. Some people tried to cash in on her fame by organizing a “Meet and Greet Hilda Baci” event for an admission fee which she promptly turned down. She has since been reported as using her celebrity status to raise funds for widows, by cooking more. She has since received her certificate from the GWR. I wrote in praise of Ms. Baci’s creativity, how through sheer imagination and effort she got transformed from being a great unknown into a global figure. But I have since noticed an emergent Hilda Baci syndrome that speaks to the character of the average Nigerian, and this is a problem, an abnormality. Not long after Hilda Baci was recognized by the GWR, the Hilda instinct started crawling out of many Nigerians who wanted to be like her. These persons have since turned the country into one big kitchen of emergency cooks. It is not funny. It is beginning to look like the spread of mass psychosis! Ms Tata Landon kept the record for marathon cooking from 2019 – 2023. Nigerians are not even allowing Ms Baci to enjoy a month of fame, before they started rolling out their own kitchen utensils in larger numbers to displace her.
By June 9, another Nigerian lady, Ms. Damilola Adeparusi, popularly known as Chef Dammy had entered the kitchen in Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State with the mind to cook for 120 hours and prove that she could do better than Hilda Baci of Akwa Ibom State. She did 120 hours, June 9 -13.! The people of Ekiti were excited. They had produced their own marathon cook, so they thought. Chef Dammy was celebrated by the First Lady of Ekiti State. The Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Oye Ekiti, Professor Sunday Abayomi Fashina led a delegation of University Council Members to visit Chef Dammy, a student of the university, to thank her for putting the university on the global map. Imagine a whole university throwing its weight behind a cooking event. Ekiti persons in diaspora also expressed their excitement with one of them sending a return ticket to the US and N500, 000 in appreciation, someone else sent a gift of N1 million but as Chef Dammy herself disclosed later, she didn’t make up to N2 million. She also got some endorsements. But she did not displace Chef Baci. What she got instead was a statement from Guinness World Record advising that anyone who wants to break a record must first apply and follow due process. Chef Dammy did not. She was courageous, but hers was a waste of time and energy, more or less. She has however threatened to cook again in July and follow due process. We were told in an official statement by her handlers that “Chef Dammy is coming back!”. But before then, other cooks have since stepped into the fray. In Ile-Oluji, Ondo State, Ms Adeola Adeyeye, aka Chef Deo announced a 150-hour cooking marathon again to beat Hilda Baci. Unlike Chef Dammy of Oye-Ekiti, Chef Deo followed due process and took the precaution of informing the Guinness World Record, hence from June 30 2023 – July 7, she too started cooking round the clock and crossed the 150-hour mark. If she submits her evidence to the GWR, she could break Ms. Baci’s record and become the new champion.
But again, she is not alone. About the same time that she applied to GWR, an Ogbomoso-based chef, Temitope Adebayo also applied for a 140-hour cooking marathon, and his application was verified but it is just that he has been asked to wait till November 2023 before he enters the kitchen. He says he is ready and he has been taking lessons in endurance and stamina building. He is probably thinking of extending his advertised 140 hours, to surpass Chef Deo of Ondo who is expecting a response from GWR. Generally, this is very much like what Nigerians refer to as a “wahala be like bicycle” situation, and understandably, the obsession of young Nigerians (age range 26 -31) with cooking marathon has generated comedy skits with one Chef Damilda Adeoci clowning around on instagram that he intends to break the cooking record by 363 hours, 11 minutes. There is never a shortage of humour around here. Nigerians joke with everything and everything. But there are others who do not think this is a joke who have proposed other options in pursuit of a Guinness World Record. Here are a few examples, because nobody knows what may still come up tomorrow: At the Federal University, Oye-Ekiti (FUOYE) a computer science lecturer, Joshua Hassan Bature is now proposing a 150- hour teaching marathon which he calls ‘aca- a-thon”. The GWR people have given him an October 16, 2023 date. I hope “Lecturer 150 hours” would have enough audience for his computer jargon.
Similarly, one Oluwatobi Kufeji, Alejo Pataki, is proposing a 200-hour singing marathon. He calls his proposal: “Praise Worship-a-Thon”. There is also Joyce Ijeoma, the Nigerian lady who wanted to set a record for the longest hours for body massaging. She collapsed in the process and had to be revived! There is also a lady from Benue State, Treasure Joseph who says she wants to set a record for the longest video on instagram with a target of 125 hours between July 5 -9. Woli Arole – I want to believe that one is truly clowning, has also been quoted as saying that he wants to do a “Prayer-a-thon” for 5, 000 hours. Please, who has to pray to God for 5, 000 hours before he answers? The Catechist taught us that God sees our mind. He is omnipotent and omnipresent. Apparently, whatever God Woli Arole worships needs over 5, 000 hours before he can hear His children’s pleas. But the more ridiculous aspect of all this is that the Hilda Baci syndrome has since gone across the border. Nigeria is the main leader in West Africa and to a great extent in Africa. Other countries within the sub-region look up to us. That is probably one of the reasons why President Tinubu is now the Chairperson of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Governments, within 41 days of his assumption of office as President. It also probably explains why when our President decided to remove fuel subsidy on May 29, some motorcyclists in Cameroon had the temerity to stage a public protest to question President Tinubu, asking him to reverse himself because the economic policy in Nigeria is not in their best interest in Cameroon.
It further makes sense to see why and how the Nigerian Hilda Baci syndrome has crossed the border. In Cameroon, a 25-year-old lady who wants to be the Hilda Baci of Yaounde has now announced a sex-a-thon. She wants to have sex with able-bodied, strong men for 200 hours non-stop. She wants strong men to line up. In Ghana, another lady is proposing “eat-a-thon.” How did we get here please? Nigeria is now a country that is exporting psychosis to demonstrate leadership? Other countries are demonstrating leadership in cutting edge science and technology, artificial intelligence, and global politics, we are here, a country of over 200 million people, with youths that are obsessed with cooking, prayers, singing, sex and a culture of frivolity. Nigeria should not become a sub-regional leader that exports mass, intercontinental psychosis. Can anyone in fact believe the fact that in this country today, one Nigerian lady is now launching what she calls “snails--a-thon”? She wants to cook and fry snails for 500 hours and get into the Guinness Book of World Records. At least one person has called on the Nigerian government to stop the madness from spreading further. Not many would disagree, and we already have an example in this regard.
In Ekiti state, one guy called Sugartee showed up the other day proposing to organize what he called a 72-hour “kiss-a-thon”, that is a kissing marathon. The same Ekiti state government that accommodated the cooking competition by Chef Dammy and the proposed lecture marathon by lecturer Bature immediately stepped forward to ban the proposed kissing marathon as “unhealthy, absurd and an attempt to denigrate the image of Ekiti State.” In my view, the Gov. Biodun Oyebanji administration acted rightly in the interest of public morality. Coincidentally, the GWR itself had banned kissing world records among its categories because of the risks involved. It has since accommodated a revised kiss-a-thon but with a different set of rules, and procedures. While individuals have the right to express themselves, it is also important to stress that there are no absolute rights. As the Ekiti state government has done in the case of the so-called “kiss-a-thon”, the Nigerian government must draw a line in the sand with regard to all the GWR psychosis that has overtaken the country. Danny Lammy of Cameroon for example is calling on strong men to come over and have free sex for 200 hours. If any Nigerian man shows up at that free sex event, assuming it eventually happens, such a Nigerian male citizen should be arrested on his return for engaging in an act that is against public morality and the order of nature. When the accused person gets to court, he and his lawyers can go and argue their case about jurisdiction, human rights and morality. What nonsense!
The real problem is that Nigeria is a troubled country and the evidence shows in the psychotic conduct of its people. It was Aristotle who told us that “imitation is a form of flattery”, and in addition that “a child learns by imitation”. The people imitating Hilda Baci and seeking a Guinness World Record are not children. It appears they are envious people, lacking in originality who simply want to pull down Hilda Baci, and prove that they are better than her. Envy. Jealousy. Desperation. In a country where inflation is galloping, and more people are slipping into the poverty trap, salaries and pensions are not paid, it must not be too surprising that the young people have become so desperate they would imitate anything that can bring a little fame and opportunity. Hilda Baci cooks for hours, gets famous, everyone else rushes to the kitchen. It is an emergent trait in our land. People don’t think. They copy. If you set up a business, and you seem to be doing well, before you know it, everyone in the neighbourhood would set up a similar shop. And if they have their way, they will stop at nothing to pull you down, in typical crab-mentality fashion. It is a crime to succeed at anything in Nigeria. And it is in every facet of our lives: in politics, business, academia and even in personal relationships. When as a politician, you give people opportunities to also grow and rise, the next thing they would be gunning for is to dethrone and send you into retirement while they move past you. Many friends whose colleagues die, pretend to be helping the widow, but their main interest is to take over the wife whom they have always been eyeing by the way. This is the root of the psychosis.
Worse still, this character flaw is often justified as did the kiss-a-thon Sugartee of Ekiti state. After the state government banned his proposed programme he later came forward to say that he actually did not want to organize any kissing marathon. He, being a musician, would ordinarily have proposed a singing marathon, but if he said he wanted to sing, nobody would have paid any attention. So, he had to announce a kissing marathon which got him the attention and influence that he needed. “People now know Sugartee,” he said. “In this country, you need something to get people to talk about you.” Sugartee also reported that he was invited to the Ekiti State Government House, and that he, the same man that the past administration in the state ignored, is now being invited by the new administration. And he has the effrontery to take the people for a ride and promote a scam? Sugartee and others like him who have turned the pursuit of a Guinness World Record into an opportunity for clout-chasing, misrepresentation and deception should be made to face the full wrath of the law. There are too many jobless people in this country, particularly among the younger generation who are willing and ready to turn everything into a joke. Can we all get serious for once please? Administrators of The Guinness World Record also have an obligation to review their procedures and introduce more stringent rules to protect public morality and humanistic values. Nigerian youths have a bigger obligation to dig deeper into our culture as Africans to evoke and embrace profound authenticity, innate resourcefulness and heritage that we have across board instead of competing viciously for Western style-records that come across as a validation of their own limitations rather than true strength.
There has been so much talk of late about the Ministerial appointments that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is about to make. Given the fast-paced style of governance that he has adopted so far, it is expected that he would not waste time in coming up with a list of cabinet Ministers. The 1999 Constitution vests the President with Executive powers under Section 5(1)(a) and in other parts of that basic document to hire and also fire, if need be, persons who would assist him in the discharge of his functions as President, Commander in Chief. The Nigerian President is in fact in a position to dispense as many as 5, 000 patronages, the powers vested in his office and person are that enormous, and expansive. But of all appointments, the composition of the Federal Executive Council of the Federation is critical as seen in Sections 144(5) and 147 of the 1999 Constitution. In Section 147 (3), the Constitution says expressly that Ministerial appointments “shall be in conformity with the provisions of section 14(3) of this Constitution: Provided that in giving effect to the provisions aforesaid the President shall appoint at least one Minister from each state, who shall be an indigene of such state”.
Thus, every state is entitled to have at least one Minister in the Federal cabinet and this probably explains why there has been so much hustling and jostling by a band of aspirational office seekers, sycophants and rent-seeking characters who have been pushing and shoving to get a Ministerial appointment. It is so bad that some emergency civil society groups, obviously sponsored, have been quite vocal in making specific recommendations. Some outrightly shameless ones have gone on media platforms to recommend themselves to the President openly. I have also seen a statement by persons purporting to be defending the interest of the indigenous people of the Federal Capital Territory insisting that an indigene of the FCT must be made a Minister quoting Section 299 of the Constitution. Individuals and media platforms have also announced their own choices, including partisan lobby for some former Governors who probably need a Ministerial appointment at the centre to remain relevant, not to mention the large crowd of party stalwarts, henchmen, and supporters who believe that they or their children or associates must be compensated with Federal appointments.
Every Nigerian politician seeking an elective position invariably chalks up IOUs, for which other persons expect to be compensated with appointments, contracts or access. It is the reason why government appointments are more or less, “job for the boys”. In the last dispensation, one Governor appointed over 400 aides. A certain Special Adviser was put in charge of groundnut oil! In the present administration, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas has already announced the appointment of 33 Legislative aides. Is Dr. Abbas such an “invalid” that he needs up to 33 aides? President Tinubu certainly has many IOUs to settle, but he must not do that with appointments into the Federal cabinet. Every person that he seeks to appoint must be competent, capable and fit for purpose. He may strike a balance between technocrats and politicians, but even in doing so, nobody should show up on that list simply because they know the right people or out of a sense of entitlement. Tinubu’s Ministers must not be persons who are ready to genuflect to get a title simply because they are out of job. Nigeria is in need of renaissance, a complete overhaul. We cannot achieve that objective with a cabinet of average persons. It is still too early to forget what Nigeria went through in the past eight years under President Buhari. Most of the Ministers who served under him were great unknowns. They stayed in office for eight years, sleep-walked through office, and on top of that they were decorated with national honours! The few ones who made an effort got noticed of course simply because it is always easy to stand out in an ocean of mediocrity. No other Federal cabinet was that lacklustre since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.
Tinubu cannot afford to go in that direction. He must give direction from the front, not from the rear. The quality of his appointees would enable us to know the actual quality of his own mind. Usually, it is part of the process that Governors and party leaders in the various states would nominate persons to the President to appoint as Ministers. Tinubu must be suspicious of such recommendations. What we have seen is that state party chieftains and Governors usually send to Abuja, persons who they do not believe would have the capacity to challenge their authority back home. It is easier for an average character to make it to the nomination list than a person of great ability and substance. This is why the President must screen his own nominees thoroughly before submitting their names for consideration. Nobody should be made a Minister who does not have demonstrable ability. The Federal cabinet cannot be a forum for the gathering of the tribes, or party agents, boys and girls who would be too willing to do the President’s bidding. They must be men and women who can tell the President what is right, not yes-men, not one of those clowns in the corridors of power who will kneel down at every opportunity for the President or crawl on all fours before him, as was once reported.
President Tinubu must send the right signal by departing from the old mode of nominating persons for Ministerial appointments. When he sends the names of his nominees to the Senate for screening in line with Section 147(6), he should attach the exact portfolios for which a particular nominee is being considered. Till date, the screening of Ministerial nominees has been a complete charade. Questions that are posed to the persons being screened may have no bearing whatsoever with the portfolio that would be assigned to them eventually. This creates room for a resort to inane and jejune questions such as who is the Governor of your state? as if the nominee is expected not to know the name of his state Governor. Or something like sing the national anthem, or recite the national pledge. This must stop, otherwise these Nigerian Senators would start asking such questions as what is your favourite food? Or have you renewed your birth certificate? Yes. Now that the Federal Government wants Nigerians to renew the proof of ownership of their vehicles every year, we may soon get to a ridiculous point where both birth and marriage certificates may have to be renewed annually so government can gain more revenue! For Ministerial appointments, nominees must be engaged in specific areas, to determine their knowledge level and expertise, and their policy plans with well-thought-out timelines, and key performance indicators. Nobody should insult our intelligence with the kind of hollow ritual that Ministerial screenings have become.
The Senate must not abdicate responsibility. It took the Israelites 40 years to get to the promised land. Nigeria cannot continue to beat about the bush. The Senate must not clear anybody for clearing sake. It must look out for nation-builders, and change-agents who can add value to the growth and development process. The screening must be thorough and meaningful. The Senate must not rely on the wisdom of its own members alone, it must seek the services of subject-area experts who can help prepare relevant questions. In the past, some Ministerial nominees who had served in the National Assembly or as state Governors were asked to simply bow and go. This must not be the case this time around. We don’t want Ministerial nominees bowing like ostriches. The whole idea of our recommendation is to allow all Nigerians to watch the process on live TV, and express opinions. Whoever is not good enough should be rejected by the Senate.
As he prepares to announce his list of Ministers, President Tinubu should pay attention not just to Federal Character, in selecting the best and the brightest, he must ensure inclusion, equity, and gender justice. He must look beyond party affiliations and select only those who can serve with distinction, across party lines, locally and from among the rich human resource that Nigeria has in the diaspora. He must include young persons, and also persons living with disability who are often discriminated against most unfairly in this country. The size of the cabinet is another issue. The Constitution already prescribes that all the 36 states must be represented, and if you add the FCT as is being canvassed, that gives us a total of 37 Ministers. But is it compulsory that a Minister must head a Ministry? Is it possible to tweak the designations in such a way that some Ministers can be Minister in charge of Departments and Agencies and still be Cabinet members? It is something that can be given some thought. The objective is to have a compact, effective team, and reduce the cost of governance. The Tinubu administration in this regard would have to visit the Oronsaye Report. Nigeria’s Federal Government is over-bloated. It needs to be trimmed down to cut away fat, wastages and leakages, and thereby reduce cost. Tinubu has shown so far that he can summon the courage to take hard decisions. This is one more hard decision that he needs to take for the people’s benefit. At the sub-national level, state houses of assembly must discourage Governors seeking to appoint hundreds of aides.
Not everyone can be appointed a Minister. Those who would eventually make the final list must see the opportunity to serve their country at the Ministerial level as a major recognition and must then devote themselves strictly to serving Nigeria. They must not end up as Ministers looking out only for narrow, ethnic and geographical interest. The other day, I was shocked to listen to an elder statesman berating the Minister from his home state for failing to divert Federal Government projects to his state. It is not for nothing that the cabinet is tagged “Executive Council of the Federation” and nowhere in the Oaths of Office/Allegiance is it stated that a government official shall use his or her office to pursue parochial interests. When the government is formed, the Ministers should be able to have access to the President, not just at Council meetings but whenever they need to engage with him. It is strange to hear that in more recent years, some Ministers did not have access to the President. Some of them probably never met him one-on-one. Nigeria cannot afford to have Ministers who would go to Abuja to sleep on the job, and warm the chair. It would be Tinubu’s responsibility to keep everyone on their toes and set specific, measurable targets for performance.
The times have indeed changed indicating how policy shifts can affect the people’s mood and habits and the environment in which we live. Following the removal of fuel subsidy and the harmonization of the foreign exchange regime, Nigerians have been compelled to make radical changes in how they live. Has anyone noticed the sharp reduction in the number of vehicles on Lagos roads and the disappearance of traffic gridlock in some parts of the city? With fuel now selling between N488 -N570 per litre across the country, it takes some people on the average up to N40, 000 or more to fill their vehicle’s fuel tanks. Within the same period that the cost of fuel has increased, electricity has also become very expensive, even if the electricity companies are still threatening to hike their tariffs. Inflation is as high as 22.41%, and would most certainly continue to rise.
Vehicle owners have learnt to choose their travels within the city carefully, gone are those days when it was fashionable to drive here and there. We are all going through a season of serious adjustment. In many homes, light is switched on only when it is needed to check the meter from going haywire. And yet in this same country, once upon a time, you could switch on all the lights in your apartment, and even leave those lights on when not at home. Nobody can afford to do that anymore. The street as they say in popular lingo is not smiling. Salaries have not been increased, the price of everything including tomato and onions has gone up, a loaf of bread, which used to be a common man’s favourite is now an expensive item on the family menu. Last week was the annual Eid-el-adha, the festival of sacrifice. Very few families could afford to buy and slaughter rams. A moderate-size ram was about N175, 000- that used to be the price of a very big cow. To buy a cow now, these days, you’d need close to N500, 000.
In those days, around the Eid-el-Kabir festival, it was possible to see young children going to the field with the rams that their parents had bought for the occasion. There was something called ram fight: an exciting game whereby rams are set against each other to head butt one another. The rams had names and there was a prize for the champion ram. It wasn’t all fun, some rams that went up against a tough challenger could simply slump and die. I didn’t see any young men fighting with rams in open fields this year. No parent would even have allowed anybody to gamble with a ram of N175, 000. It was generally a very moderate celebration around town except in Ijebu Ode where the usual post-Ileya Ojude Oba was held as is the tradition, three days after the festival. The Ojude Oba lived up to its reputation as a cavalcade of colour, music, dance, and memorable advertisement of the richness of Yoruba culture and artistry. I noticed though that many of the persons that I know who used to stay behind in Ijebu-Ode for days after the festival, quickly rushed back to Lagos.
One of them confessed that the times have truly changed. His landlord had just served notice that the rent in the building where he lives would go up by 200% by January 2024, due to the rising cost of building materials, and the depreciation of the Naira. He rushed back to Lagos to engage the landlord wondering how the landlord of a house built more than two decades ago can possibly complain about the high cost of building materials. The man told my friend that we are now in the era of market forces, and that rent is also subject to the forces of demand and supply. We have been on that matter since last week!
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“See Paris and die!” We used to hear that as young persons. Paris was meant to be the most exotic spot of European civilization, an intellectual capital and the reference point for the Renaissance – Francis !1, Cardinal Richelieu, Loui XIII, Louis XIV, and the ideas-driven salons of Paris. But that was in the past. Nobody goes to Paris to die these days, or to look for big ideas at salons. The history is still there, the legacy is apparent, but there is no big deal anymore about Paris. Most people go there for tourism, lovers travel to Paris to take pictures at some of the most memorable legacies of world heritage: at the la Tour Eiffel, the Louvre Museum, the Seine River, the Versailles, the Mussee d’Orsay and particularly at the Arc de Triomphe where lovers take pictures after, or before visiting the Eiffel Tower to show that they have been to Paris.
It is particularly tragic for France that from being the centre of culture and civilization at a time in history it is now more important as a centre for romance, conferences and tourism, even if France has sustained its status as one of the seven most powerful countries in the world as a member of the G-7. Between June 22 and 23, France was again in the spotlight when it hosted the summit on a “New Global Financial Pact” which as President Emmanuel Macron pointed out was to develop a new architecture for global financing to the advantage of the global South with particular focus on. Climate adaptation, equity, justice and respect for the sovereignty of states. The Summit was attended by more than 50 representatives from countries, that is Heads of States and Governments, the private sector and international development/multilateral agencies. It was France’s means of asserting its continuing relevance as a world super power. None of the G-7 countries would ever give up easily in claiming their own space in the global arena, with regard to diplomacy and influence. President Macron has been particularly determined in carrying the French torchlight in the global space.
That said, let me pivot a little. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s new President and his entourage participated in the New Global Finance Pact Summit in Paris For those who do not understand the context, there has been so much talk about a new global financial architecture in the international space when countries of the global South, that is the developing countries began to ask for a New International Economic Order as far back as 1974. Developing countries were not at the table when the United Nations, the IMF, the World Bank and other multilateral institutions were formed after World War II. Nor were they at the table after World War I and the negotiations that led to the Treaty of Versailles and the League of Nations. Post-war, the world has been trying to grapple with the challenges of peace, security and stability, but with that has come the challenges of equity, justice and state sovereignty. Article 1 of the UN Charter talks about the sovereignty of states, but we live in an unbalanced world and an inequitable world. The disparity between the Global North and the Global South has therefore led to s a situation whereby the poor developing countries of the world have consistently asked for a seat at the table, either at the UN Security Council, or for trade not aid, and reforms at all levels and a greater commitment of the North to the South. France as we have seen, and other countries of the North – Japan, China, Russia, the United States have tried to seize on this through annal summits at which they announce grants for developing countries,
Much of it is just sheer hypocrisy though. Whether it is Japan, China, the US, the UK or France, these Global North countries are basically looking out for their own interests. In France, the developed countries for example promised a $100 billion fund for climate adaptation. We heard much of that at COP 26 in Glasgow Scotland, and also at COP 27 at Sharm-el-Sheik in Egypt., and again at the African Development Bank Anniversary at the same venue – Sharm el-Sheik most recently. In Paris, the rich nations pledged about $100 billion for climate adaptation to help developing countries, but has progress been made (?), given the fact that an outsized role is given to private investment and multilateral development banks. The truth is that the global North is not yet ready to input fairness, justice and equity into its relationship with the global South – that, sadly, is the extant international economic order. Zambia’s President Hichilema may have been able to secure a debt deal with China with the help of France’s President Macron but that doesn’t really mean much. Zambia, the copper-rich nation was the first Africa country to default on its debt prepayments in 2020. It is indebted to China for up to $4billion out of a debt profile of about $6 billon. The loans may have been taken by Hichilema’s predecessor – Michael Sata and Edward Lungu, but Hichilema succeeded in getting a reprieve on debt repayment from China, with President Macron facilitating the deal. I don’t think that is a lot to crow about. Zambia is in a very bad place economically. It has also been said that the. Presidents of Ghana, Kenya, Barbados reportedly made statements on behalf of the developing world about fairness, equity and justice in the proposed new global financial pact. What does anybody expect them to say? The big issue about North-South relations has been exactly about the same issues, the original basis in particular for Africa, demanding “trade, not aid”.
I have given this background to lead up to the point that has been raised by some Twitter analysts, those I call the 140-word intellectuals who have been saying that whr5eas some other Presidents from developing countries took the podium and made some noise with regard to striking some deals, President Tinubu only got promises from the Paris Summit and did not make any big statement. What big statement is anyone looking for? Comparing President Tinubu to President William Ruto of Kenya, or the Presidents of Ghana or Zambia is an act of self-abnegation on the part of those who have done so. Every country makes its own sovereign choices and defines its own priorities. Nigeria is not under any obligation to speak at any forum except as it deems fit. The point has been made that President Tinubu did not speak at any major forum. Nigeria as a sovereign state has every right to choose what serves its purpose. In any case, among all the African Presidents at that Paris Summit, Tinubu is the youngest in order of emergence. Protocol and etiquette require that he cannot speak ahead of Presidents that are ahead of him until his proper introduction at the regional and continental level, where he is properly admitted into the body of Heads of States and Governments. Going to Paris was also Tinubu’s first international outing, after his election as President. I disagree with those who claim that his attendance at that Summit was a lost opportunity. There is too much mush on social media.
My view is that the Paris trip was a great outing for Nigeria and for Africa, and especially for President Tinubu. You all must have seen him bouncing, and sprinting like a teenager at the events that he chose to attend and the great photo opportunities that he had. I was so drawn into the atmosphere I had to confess that I would also like to become President of Nigeria someday. There is clearly something magical about that office that purifies the person, and gives your system a little bounce. Can anyone imagine that the same Tinubu that critics used to ridicule is suddenly looking like he can take Anthony Joshua’s place and challenge Dillian Whyte to a fight? It is the magic of that spiritual place called the Nigerian Presidency. I digress. I intend to say that those who claim that Tinubu’s trip to France was a poor outing are factually wrong, unnecessarily sentimental and unfair. He did well. It is also the height of emotionalism to compare or reduce the performance of the President of one’s country to the level of the Presidents of other countries which on a good day look up to Nigeria. In this matter, I think we all need to be reminded that campaigns and elections are over, we are now in the season of governance. Except the courts decide one way or the other, my take is that we are now in the season of governance, and this whole matter cannot be left alone to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its mob. We have a responsibility to get involved in how this country is run. It is no longer about APC or Tinubu. It is about us. Less than a month ago, everyone talked about Muhammadu Buhari. I have not seen him on the front page of any newspaper since he packed his things out of Aso Rock and relocated to Katsina state. We have all simply moved on with our lives. This I think is the point that can also be taken from Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s statement that “Nigerians should please relax”. Indeed, we all need to relax!
The Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was accused of not posting her pictures with President Tinubu in Paris whereas she posted on social media pictures with other Presidents that are not her own. She was then accused of making a political statement. The truth that is lost on the complainants is that Tinubu does not need Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s validation. It is not an issue. And she put her finger on it when she pointed out that those complaining have sadly shown “the depth of polarization in our society”. She has told us correctly: “Let’s unite to build our country, not attack.” The censorious mode into which the opposition in Nigeria has plugged itself is unhealthy for us as a country, nor is it of any help to the sub-region. In Sierra Leone where presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections were held last Saturday, it is shocking to see that Sierra Leoneans are beginning to behave almost exactly like Nigerians. The ruling party, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), claiming victory is already telling the main opposition party, the All People’s Congress (APC): “Go to Court”, Go to Court”. The judiciary is obviously not only in the eyes of the storm in Nigeria as the Nigeria Bar Association-Special Section on Public Interest and Development Law (NBA-SWIDEL) resolved at a summit last week, it is embattled everywhere. Again, I digress.
I began with Tinubu’s trip to Paris. Now, let me end with that. His first official international outing. Good. Good. For the benefit of those who claim that Tinubu did not secure a deal, I accuse them of ignorance. Deals are not secured by word of mouth. Summits provide an opportunity for interaction and engagements and sound bites. What follows thereafter is more important, the ability of the country involved in diplomatic relations at either bilateral or multinational level to follow through. Zambia may have secured a commitment for debt repayment rescheduling from China but it means nothing if it remains at the level of expectation. It is the same argument for the pledge by the global North to provide up to $100 billion for climate adaptation financing. This is at best an aspiration. It may never happen. Didn’t they make similar promises at Glasgow, Scotland (COP 26) and Sharm el-Sheik (COP 27)?
Nigeria’s participation in the Paris Summit is strategic and appropriately so. Nigeria was clear about its purpose: to woo the international community to invest in Nigeria, and to make just enough appearances to show that there is a new Sheriff in charge of Nigeria. The Lagos City Boy who is now President of Nigeria did not disappoint. He was sprinting and hugging and laughing, putting up a good show on the soft diplomacy side. He demonstrated wisdom by not over-pushing himself in people’s faces at his first major outing as a newly-elected President. And it is not true that he went there to take photos. He held strategic meetings, and secured serious commitments. Mr. Dele Alake, Presidential spokesman, my beloved junior in that office, has reported copiously on this: President Tinubu’s meeting with Professor Benedict Oramah of the African Export and Import Bank (AFREXIM) who gave a firm commitment that the development bank will invest more in Nigeria, and the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) who was told pointedly by Tinubu that it would be perilous for the world to ignore Nigeria. The EBRD lady concurred. Tinubu also met with Presidents of other countries. International diplomacy is not simply about making speeches at the podium where everyone says more or less the same things; it is more about commitments secured on the sidelines. Tinubu did very well in the latter regard. The only caveat I attach to that is that there is need for follow-up, and follow-through. Tinubu has to work on that. Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is too busy organizing protocols and ceremonies, nobody in that Ministry pays enough attention to the nexus between diplomacy and statecraft. The golden age of that Ministry ended. Tinubu must revive it.
My only point of criticism about the Paris Summit event would be as follows. President Tinubu met with Nigerians in Diaspora at an event in Paris which is a good thing, Nigerians in Diaspora are major stakeholders in the Nigerian enterprise- many of them are even far more concerned than the Nigerians at home. But Tinubu made the mistake of saying at the forum that the country’s financial system was rotten under Godwin Emefiele as Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). He gave his audience more details. That was wrong. Emefiele was arrested on June 8, and has been in the custody of the Department of State Services (DSS) since then with the claim that he is still being investigated. President Tinubu must refrain from making prejudicial statements. Emefiele has rights under the laws of Nigeria. He should not be crucified through Presidential proclamation. Tinubu’s critics have further objected to his decision to travel from Paris to London. I am amused by the comments. The beauty of democracy is that even persons who cannot buy enough data credit on their phones or who cannot run their own lives believe it is their right to dictate to the “oga on top”. Democracy is not too much of a departure from dictatorship, Only the character is different.
Asari Dokubo, the self-styled Niger Delta activist and revolutionary who came into prominence during the struggle for self-determination in the Niger Delta finally got the attention that he may have been looking for. He came into prominence in the 2000s as an activist until the Umaru Yar’Adua administration launched an amnesty programme and the embattled militants were later allowed to have a look at what is “in the pipelines of Abuja”, turning former warlords of the creeks into overnight billionaires and contractors. He was one of the warlords who made good on the wings of the Niger Delta agitation. During the 2023 general election campaigns, he openly declared support for the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as he described Tinubu as his benefactor whom he would do anything to support. Tinubu reportedly took care of his family while he was in detention. He gave his wife a house in Victoria Garden City (VGC) and paid his children’s school fees. One good turn deserves another – for him it was pay back time. Hence, in March 2023, he led a solidarity march for Bola Tinubu and the APC on the streets of Port Harcourt.
In May 2023, just a few days ahead of the inauguration of the new President, Dokubo again led a group of Niger Delta Youths to the Presidential Election Tribunal sitting in Abuja to declare that nothing on earth would stop Bola Tinubu’s inauguration as Nigerian President. Dokubo was stoutly praised by Festus Keyamo, erstwhile spokesperson of the Tinubu Campaign Organization for leading the “ground forces” to support a long-time friend and brother. Without a scintilla of doubt, in a democratic setting, every individual is entitled to his or her own choices, and as far as loyalty matters as a societal value, it is clearly within Asari Dokubo’s rights to support any candidate of his choice, express his views and summersault acrobatically in so doing if that is convenient for him.
What I find curious would be the kind of monstrous sycophancy and attention-seeking antics that have attended Asari Dokubo’s recent exertions in the public space and the need for some of his claims to be closely interrogated. Sometime last week, Dokubo was quoted as saying that Nigerians should hold him responsible if Bola Tinubu fails. He reportedly said: “If Ahmed Bola Tinubu fails, hold me responsible. I am unapologetic. I have known him since 1992 and I know what he stands for, and I can stand in the gap between him and the people and say this. This is a step my brother Goodluck failed to take when he had the opportunity. The same step Buhari could not take and Tinubu took it from his first day at the office.” Asari Dokubo was referring to the removal of fuel subsidy by President Tinubu. He has however, just provided a strong reason why Nigerian history should be made a compulsory subject in our schools. Some of the so-called big men in our society who have the capacity to smuggle themselves into front page news have no clue about contemporary history. Asari Dokubo wants to be held responsible if Tinubu fails. In his capacity as what, please? Who has appointed him into the role of the King’s Horseman?
Has he ever heard of a man called Tokunbo Afikuyomi, who was even much finer in his expression of loyalty? Has he heard of all those people who said they should be stoned if President Buhari disappointed them as President? When Nigerians started looking for people to stone, all the early-day Buhari champions had gone quiet, or were playing deaf and dumb. Many of them have learnt to remain quiet forever. Asari Dokubo may make the headlines, in the euphoria of the moment, but let him be careful what he asks for. In any case, Nigerians have no business with him. Our business is with President Tinubu. He will be the one to be held responsible for his own performance because the buck stops at his desk. In a fit of unbridled self-ingratiation, Dokubo in fact added a snide comment about President Goodluck Jonathan whom he calls “my brother”. The kind of wonders I have seen in Nigeria’s political space, I simply cannot fully tell it all. Et tu Asari? Many Nigerians would sell their own brothers for a mess of porridge, and lick their tongue doing so. Not even Engr. Joe Igbokwe, the Igbo man from Nnewi, turned Yoruba spokesperson, has been so uncouth. But it is not only President Goodluck Jonathan that Asari Dokubo has thrown under the bus in recent days. He finally got rewarded with a visit to the seat of power, the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja. It is not as if he is actually a new visitor to the premises, but this time around, Tinubu apparently laid out the carpet for him. And he wasn’t going to let the opportunity pass. He upped his game. If na you nko? The thing to note though is that his visit fits perfectly into the Rose Garden politics that the Tinubu administration has been managing very well. While some people are going with lawyers and boxes of materials to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, a judicial process that may not end till next year, President Tinubu is busy “seizing the day”, to borrow a phrase from the Canadian-American writer, Saul Bellow, making appointments, and pronouncements, and receiving visitors. Who has not yet visited?
Traditional rulers, former government officials, members of the opposition, former Presidents and Heads of State, a former CBN Governor have all visited to pay homage to Nigeria’s new King. Even Tinubu’s arch-critic, Chief Olabode George of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has been quoted saying whereas he does not need anything from Tinubu, if he has to make any recommendations to him, he would do so for the good of the country. Nobody should panic if we make up one day and we hear that the National Judicial Council of Nigeria (the NJC) is having an audience with Tinubu. May be President Olusegun Obasanjo would also visit very soon, some day. Tinubu is a great student of power. Is former Governor, former Minister, Rauf Aregbesola not now singing his praises to high heavens, and attributing everything he has been in his life to Tinubu and Buhari?
Apparently shot in the arm with a good dose of a wonder drug to be known for the purpose of this writing as “Tinubumycin”, Asari Dokubo was taken straight from the President’s office to address the state house press corps. Ordinarily when non-state actors visit the Villa, they are never seated directly below Nigeria’s coat of arms. They can be seated to the left or the right, with a state official co-ordinating the media interaction, in most cases, the visiting non-state actor is even interviewed on the corridor or just by the entrance to the media briefing room. I was shocked seeing Asari Dokubo sitting below Nigeria’s coat of arms and making pronouncements. In what capacity, please? The Media Department in the Villa shares the same corridor with the Protocol Department. Protocol and Etiquette are important aspects of state diplomacy. If the new guys along the corridor do not know how state diplomacy works, they only need to ask. The point is that diplomacy is based on rules not the preferences of the official in charge. Asari Dokubo had no business seating directly under Nigeria’s coat of arms, a symbol of state, symbolism being an important part of diplomacy as stated in Article 20 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961). Whereas Dokubo was not an envoy, our point is that state activities in every circumstance are governed by protocol. Symbolism is important. And what exactly did he say? He used the platform to vomit.
Last Friday, revelling in the excitement of the audience that he had been granted to visit the Nigerian President, Asari Dokubo told the media that he had advised President Tinubu not to release Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) who has been in state custody since his extra-ordinary rendition from Kenya in 2021. Dokubo reportedly said: “Releasing Nnamdi Kanu is rewarding criminality and rewarding gruesome murder of innocent people. He should face the law for the actions and instigations he carried out... His release would fuel impunity. During EndSARS, Nnamdi Kanu was walking free. What did he do? He poured petrol on the flames of ENDSARS. Now, he has been caught. What of the people who have died? This is a criminal. He should face the law.” If this was just reported speech, I would have assumed that perhaps Asari Dokubo would show up later to say that he was quoted out of context, which is the standard practice in Nigeria. After all, Senator Muhammad Adamu Bulkachuwa who was recorded on tape and whose submissions at the valedictory session of the 9th Senate have been widely circulated is now saying that he was misquoted, and that he was not allowed to complete his submissions. He should be grateful to Senator Ahmad Lawan for cutting him short. He has done more than enough damage already, and if he has nothing important to say, I advise him to keep quiet! Why is Nigeria always having leaders in high places, who cannot think straight? Does Senator Bulkachuwa expect us to believe him, especially now that his wife has publicly contradicted him and his so-called “unfinished valedictory speech” has thrown the integrity of the entire judiciary into question? As for Dokubo, he has not denied his statements on Nnamdi Kanu, but the irony is writ large.
He seems to have forgotten his own antecedents and personal history. Asari Dokubo could not complete simple university education but he gained prominence as a freedom fighter defending the rights of the marginalized people of the Niger Delta. He was a prominent figure in the Niger Delta struggle for self-determination, as President of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC), and later as founder and leader of the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPF). He was the General of Generals, Lord of the Creeks, who became a folk hero and a champion among his people. He was involved in direct action on behalf of his people – the Kaiama Declaration, Operation Climate Change, resource control and self-determination. Asari Dokubo’s team took on the Nigerian state and fought it, making life and business near-impossible for the oil multinationals operating in the Niger Delta. In effect, oil production activities in the Niger Delta dropped. In 2007, Asari was arrested and charged for treason. President Umaru Yar’Adua would later “settle him” and his boys. This piece of recent history is necessary to underline the fact that there are key parallels between the struggle led by Mazi Nnamdi Kanu and before him the struggle led by Asari Dokubo. In the years between 2001 and 2007, many described Asari Dokubo with the same words that he is using against Nnamdi Kanu today. His anti-Kanu outburst is clear evidence that his gentrification is now complete! He used to speak against the Nigerian state. He is now helping the same state to look for criminals. Kanu’s counsel, Aloy Ejimakor, Emma Powerful of IPOB and Ohanaeze Ndigbo have already responded to Asari Dokubo in robust measure. He is yet to respond to them, particularly their allegation that he is using Nnamdi Kanu’s name to look for oil pipeline contracts from the Federal Government of Nigeria.
Ejimakor, IPOB and Ohaneze Ndigbo are not alone. Last Friday, Asari Dokubo also accused the Nigerian military – the Navy and the Army of being behind the menace of oil theft in Nigeria. He offered to help the Nigerian state to check oil theft in the Niger Delta. This is the story of our lives. A non-state actor comes forward and accuses the Nigerian military of being an army of thieves, stealing Nigeria’s most prized natural resource, and he offers to succeed where the Nigerian military has failed. The international community must be laughing at us. I had dealt at length with this subject in a previous piece here titled “The Oil Thieves of Nigeria” (ThisDay, January 4, 2022). Nigeria loses about 193 million barrels of crude oil in 11 months, about $3.5 billion, and about 10% of the country’s foreign reserves. This has been confirmed by players in the oil and gas sector, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), and by the Multinational Oil Companies who have had to divest from Nigeria. The question is: who steals the crude oil? Oil theft is certainly not a small operation. To steal crude from a particular platform and move it to an evacuation point is a high technological venture, and to even ship it out of Nigeria’s maritime territory requires a heavy deployment of men, resources, technology and capital. And this happens every day, throwing Nigeria’s monocultural economy adrift and all we get is the trading of blames? Asari Dokubo has been consistent in blaming the military for colluding with other elements to steal Nigeria’s crude oil. The Navy and the Army have exercised a due right of reply and asked him to name the military officers involved. They have similarly accused him of looking for oil pipeline surveillance contracts. High Chief Government Ekpemukpolo who he probably considers his “boy” in street parlance has a similar contract. Why shouldn’t he hustle for one for himself?
Asari Dokubo’s outburst speaks to the failure of the Nigerian state to protect its own resources. There is a body called Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority – how efficient has it been? Why is the Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission asleep? There is the Federal Government Investigative Panel on Oil Theft and Losses led by General Barry Ndiomu (rtd) which submitted its report to the National Security Adviser in March 2023. Since then, mum has been the word. The exchange between the Nigerian military and Asari Dokubo may have generated some interest, but I do not think the matter should be allowed to die down. Dokubo must be made to share what he knows with the Nigerian government. He may or may not get whatever he is looking for – Nigerians are always looking for things – but we need to get to the root of the evil of oil theft and address it once and for all. It is time we heard from the operators – Sterling Global, Aiteo, Seplat and the IOCs. They should come and tell us what they produce in actuality. There is something somewhere that runs counter to business economics. Yesterday, President Tinubu showed his readiness to continue to act swiftly by making new appointments, including changing the service chiefs. More persons would have to go. Of all the 23 appointments announced yesterday though, I looked in vain for an Igbo name on the list – may be one from the South East. And why is the President appointing commanders for the Brigade of Guards, the Garrison and the Artillery - which are supposed to be routine military postings?
“How was your Democracy Day?”
“I woke up early, listened to President Bola Tinubu’s nationwide address, and I went about my daily affairs.”
“Yesterday was a public holiday. You were expected to stay at home and have a good rest.”
“I can understand if some people enjoyed the holiday, after all it is now more expensive to buy litres of fuel for your vehicle. As things are right now, Nigerians would jump at any opportunity to save fuel costs. Those days of going about like small-pox are gone. People now calculate how they move about. But people like us who always have one thing or the other to do, we have no option. We have to keep the hustle alive. The hustle is real, men.”
“Some people don’t know how to relax in this country, and you are one of them. By the time the high cost of fuel drills holes in your pocket, you will adjust.”
“How does one relax? How can anyone in this pressure cooker of a society in which we have found ourselves relax? What has democracy brought us?”
“A lot. We are no longer under the shackles of military rule.”
“Democratic rule is better measured in terms of its dividends. Where are the dividends?”
“I can point to a few. Democracy has given the people the power to choose their own leaders. It has created a new set of leaders. We are in the seventh transition within the Fourth Republic. In 1993, the military may have annulled the Presidential election won by Chief MKO Abiola and denied the people the Hope that he promised them, but here we are in 2023, President Tinubu says he is determined to restore Hope.”
“I saw the same connection that you are trying to draw in President Tinubu’s speech yesterday. I have also heard some people saying that Tinubu and MKO share common traits. You know, I have this gut feeling that the comparison may be overstretched.”
“Tinubu was part of the pro-democracy struggle. He stood at the barricades. When he talks about Democracy Day, he has the requisite credentials to do so.”
“I sort of like the speech though. The only part I find funny is the reference to Arnold Toynbee. Has Tinubu ever read Toynbee? His speech writers should make him sound natural. They should maintain a consistent tone that projects his ownership of the thoughts. One of these days, they would even make him quote Noam Chomsky. Ha Ha. Ha. But in terms of sentiments, the speech was on point”
“My brother, don’t worry about quotations. Leaders are allowed to show knowledge. Tinubu can even quote Socrates if he wishes. My own take-away is that the President paid tribute to MKO Abiola, as hero and martyr of democracy, the man who stood for democracy, and whose sacrifice became the catalyst for Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999. The President has asked us to embrace the idea of sacrifice and emulate Abiola and that his government will reward us all with infrastructure, and welfare programmes. He also paid tribute to the heroes of democracy.”
“We are all used to that rhetoric. That is the same rhetoric that has been drummed into our ears since states of the South West began to celebrate Democracy Day on May 29, until the Federal Government separated May 29, the day of presidential inauguration from June 12, which the Buhari administration set aside as Democracy Day and National Holiday. That is one good thing President Buhari did. He also gave MKO, a post-humous GCFR award. But who has sacrifice helped in this country? What has been the gain of the MKO Abiola family? What has anybody done for them? What has anybody done for the families of all the other heroes and heroines who led the struggle for Nigeria’s “second independence” as Tinubu calls it. Joe Igbokwe has written a useful book titled Heroes of Democracy (1999) in which he provides a comprehensive list of persons who participated in the June 12 struggle, and those who died. Remember the founding General Secretary of the Campaign for Democracy (CD), Chima Ubani. Remember Bagauda Kaltho. Remember those four young men who hijacked a Nigeria Airways Airbus A310, in October 1993 in protest against the annulment of the June 12 Presidential election. They were teenage students of Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA).”
“What are you driving at? Neither MKO Abiola nor his supporters resisted military tyranny because they wanted to die so that their families could benefit.”
“Have you ever heard of any revolutionary, change-agent or defender of progressive causes who sets out to die as an ambition? Such persons are often consumed by the contradictions of their societies and their times. But they leave lessons behind. They alter the course of history for good. Please, tell me: have we learnt any lessons from Nigeria’s debacle between 1993 and 1999, and after?”
“Societies evolve”
“And in what direction is Nigeria evolving?”
“We have hope”
“Hope. What hope? In 1993, Abiola’s slogan was “Hope 93”. In 2023, 30 years later, Tinubu is still looking for that hope. He wants to capture and restore it. In 1993, Abiola preached a message of “farewell to poverty”. In 2023, that same poverty has developed such roots and metastasized so badly like a cancerous organ, we are now told it has a new identity: multidimensional poverty. I guess 30 years is long enough for anything to become multidimensional.”
“You should learn to look at the positive side of things”.
“I am trying. In 1993, before the Babangida administration stopped the announcement of results, the then National Electoral Commission (NEC) had reported that Abiola was leading in 19 out of 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory: all the states in the South West, 5 of the 9 Northern states including Kano; 3 out of the 7 states in the South East, and 4 out of the seven states in the Middle Belt. Abiola ran on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Ethnicity did not matter. Religion was not an issue. It is a crying shame that 30 years later, Nigeria has gone back in history. Today, the politics of ethnicity and religion has divided the country. We have gone from bad to worse.”
“1993 is not 2023, my friend. The times have changed. Our democracy continues to grow.”
“Tell me how”
“Today for example, on the 13th day of June, in the year of our Lord 2023, President Tinubu shall proclaim the inauguration of Nigeria’s 10th National Assembly and the lawmakers shall choose their own leaders”
“Very good. A major event immediately after President Tinubu’s first Democracy Day in office. Have you been reading the news?”
“What about the news? Journalists are always spinning the news to suit their own biases and the expectations of their sponsors.”
“Don’t say that. Journalists hold a mirror up to society. The leadership race in the National Assembly has been dogged by so-called party supremacy, the hypocrisy of the political elite, rancour, corruption, division and manipulations. Quite typical.”
“Nothing will happen. It shall be well. The APC has spoken. Tinubu has spoken.”
“Spoken what? Are you not aware that there are aggrieved parties who are ready to assert the independence of the legislative arm of government? In fact, are you not aware that the Chairman of the ruling APC advised the anointed persons for positions of presiding officers to arrive early at the Assembly or camp out there overnight to prevent what happened in 2015 under similar circumstances?”
“What happened in 2015?”
“Go and find out. You see why this country needs to teach History at all levels? A grown-up man like you does not know the contemporary political history of his own country.”
“Don’t insult me. Please leave history alone. Am I looking for a job in the civil service? Am I going for a Quiz competition? As we speak, do you know how much would have been distributed overnight to all the aggrieved lawmakers? Money talks, my brother. As money speaks, the numbers will add up. I am hungry, please. Where can we find something to eat?”
“Go to Oye-Ekiti where Damilola Adeparusi, aka Chef Dammy is trying to break Hilda Baci’s 100-hour cook-a-thon. I hear she has been cooking for more than 80 hours and that her target is to beat Tata Tandon and Hilda Baci. In Oye-Ekiti, food is ready.”
“Nigeria is a wonderful place. We haven’t even heard from the Guinness Book of World Records on Hilda Basi’s marathon effort, now someone else is trying to compete with her for the record.”
“I don’t think Dammy is competing with Hilda. Imitation, they say, is the best form of flattery. You better start heading towards Oye-Ekiti. I am sure there would be piping hot amala and pounded yam on offer.”
“There is a difference between a cook and a chef. Hilda looks to me like a chef. I would say Dammy is a cook.”
“There is no such difference. Both prepare food for human consumption”
“Flavour is important. You want to compare food that is prepared in Oye-Ekiti, to food that is prepared in Lagos? You want to compare Maybach to Toyota Corolla?”
“Come off it, my friend. Both ladies deserve to be encouraged.”
“Okay, if you can’t go to Oye-Ekiti, maybe you can make it to Ibadan where I hear one Temitope Adebayo, has also announced plans to cook for 140 hours to beat both Hilda Baci and Dammy. At this rate, they will turn this whole country into a kitchen oh. It has even been reported that Woli Arole is also looking for a place in the Guinness World Record. He is looking at a 5000-hour prayer marathon. He says he will announce a commencement date very soon.”
“Lobatan ooh. Nigeria, we hail thee! As some people are cooking, others want to pray. Do you think all this cook-a-thon, pray-a-thon has anything to do with the removal of fuel subsidy? Is there money attached to the Guinness World Record? Are Nigerians depressed?”
“I don’t know. But in case you change your mind, just make sure you don’t eat ponmo anywhere, no matter how well prepared”
“Ponmo ke? You can’t be serious. I like my ponmo, especially when it is soft, well-peppered, subsumed inside vegetable sauce, and combined with snails, both exciting the palate in a manner that makes you forget all the troubles of the world. Then give me palm wine or a chilled bottle of Shine Shine Bobo, Star Lager to push it down the gut...”
“Ole! Just don’t go and kill yourself. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture has advised that people should stop eating hides, smoked meat and bush meat because of an outbreak of anthrax disease in the West African sub-region. You will just fall sick by eating what you are not supposed to eat.”
“Na lie. I have been eating ponmo since I was a child. The Federal Government guys think they can lie to us to save animal hides and skins for leather production. They lie too much. The leather and tannery industry in Nigeria is practically dead. They want to stop our delicacy so they can get more materials for export. I am sure somebody in the Ministry is looking out for his or her own interest.”
“Just be careful. You may not trust government. But it is not every time that they tell lies for selfish reasons.”
“Don’t worry yourself. I can’t travel to Ibadan or Oye-Ekiti just to go and eat ponmo. The food won’t be free, anyway. And it is expensive getting petrol these days.”
“Nigerians are not protesting. We all seem to have adjusted. The beauty of this country lies in the people’s resilience. No matter what hardship life throws at us, we all manage to survive. We are under a special kind of spell.”
“We are just people of hope, that’s all. Which is why it bothers me to no end that some motorcyclists in, as far away as Cameroon are already protesting over the removal of fuel subsidy in Nigeria. I saw a video in which they were purportedly abusing President Tinubu for removing fuel subsidy. What is their own in the matter?”
“There you have it, a strong justification for the fuel subsidy removal. Nigeria practically subsidizes fuel consumption in other West African countries. We are the Father Christmas of the region in everything because our leaders have not implemented the right policies over the years. If we get things right, we would be fine. Cameroonians are fighting over fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria. Can you imagine that, when state governments in Nigeria are beginning to ask people to work three days a week, because of fuel subsidy?”
“Which states are those?”
“Edo and Kwara. But it looks like other states will soon join the bandwagon. Edo has added N10, 000 to the minimum wage in the state but what is N10, 000 when organized labour is asking for a minimum wage of N200, 000.”
“Increasing the minimum wage won’t solve the problem. There are far more fundamental issues that must be addressed, and they have made the mistake of putting the cart before the horse.”
“They?”
“Tinubu and his people. You know I have always said I don’t understand why anybody would want to be President of Nigeria at this time. The trouble for this country too much. As you are trying to solve one, another one is rearing its head.”
“But we all need more money at this time. In fact, the private sector should be asked to increase the minimum pay too.”
“It is a double-edged sword. If businesses are compelled to increase wages, they may have no option but to sack workers. There will be massive lay-offs. Government itself may not be able to pay. Chaos. Wahala.”
“There is money. President Tinubu has just approved students’ loans. He made that promise. He has kept it. He did not just hit the ground running. Omo, he is beginning to fly!”
“Why are we like this in this country?”
“Just watch. Tinubu may turn out to be the magician we have been looking for.”
“I have no opinion on that, until the matter before the tribunal is resolved.”
“Dey there oh. Keep waiting. No be Nigeria?”
One of the first things that had been cited as evidence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu showing courage and wisdom and hitting the ground running as the 16th President of Nigeria, has been his announcement that “fuel subsidy is gone”. In his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, he did not state how but within 24 hours, his rather speculative declaration was given effect. Oil marketers and managers at fuel stations adjusted their operations, shifting prices per litre of petrol upwards. By the following day, the NNPC Limited, the country’s sole supplier of finished product had announced a new template for petrol pricing, from N195 per litre to between N480 and N570 per litre - a more than 200% adjustment in the pump price of petrol. The given excuse is that this is in fulfilment of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) promise during the campaign season in the lead up to the 2023 General elections. The APC was not alone. Indeed, fuel subsidy removal was one of the major issues in the 2023 campaign process. Virtually every major political party promised that the subsidy would be removed.
The IMF/World Bank in their global outlook for Africa and Nigeria had also advised against retaining fuel subsidy in Nigeria, being a source of wastage and leakage. Nigerian economists also agreed that the subsidy regime was unsustainable. It benefitted only the rich and was a ready source of arbitrage and a vehicle for the smuggling of petrol to neighbouring countries. The subject also gained a legal imprimatur with the passing of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), whose express purpose was to introduce a legal and governance framework to guide activities in the oil and gas sector. By the tenets of the PIA, the subsidy regime was meant to go by 2021.
Citing what he called “social consequences” that may arise from such action, the Buhari administration, literally postponing the evil day, got the National Assembly to shift the implementation of that part of the law till 18 months later, to coincide with the end of his own tenure as President of Nigeria. As that administration began to wind down, the then Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed continued to remind Nigerians that Nigeria would not be able to fund fuel subsidies beyond May 29, 2023. The extension granted under the two relevant laws, the Petroleum Industry Act (2021), and the 2023 Fiscal Framework and Appropriation Act could not be stretched legally beyond May 29. To do so would be to break the law. In the weeks leading to the end of that administration, we were further told that the outgoing government had decided that the incoming administration should join the Federal Government to take a decision as to what it would do.
In the weekend leading to the Inauguration of the new administration on Monday, May 29, the National Assembly hurriedly met: Senate first, followed by the House of Representatives to pass amendments extending the 2023 Supplementary Appropriation Act till December 2023, and another Bill amending the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, to give effect to the criminal violation of Section 38 of the Law on the approved threshold for Ways and Means. The Bill as passed moved the threshold from 5% to 15%. Till he handed over the instruments of power, there was no information that Buhari had signed either of the two Bills. He left for Daura, with a promise to cross the border to neighbouring Niger, if anyone tried to drag him into any Nigerian crisis. As he did so, he left behind a debt burden in excess of N77 trillion Naira, debts owed to the country’s major oil company, the NNPCL, totalling N2.4 trillion, a debt service to revenue ratio of over 96%, an inflation rate of 22.24%, an unemployment rate in excess of 33%, an essentially broke country, whose travails were further compounded by insecurity and hopelessness resulting in the Nigerian invention of a “Japa” phenomenon turning Nigerians into asylum and opportunity-seekers in other parts of the world.
In an attempt to seize ownership of the narrative however, Buhari’s handlers rolled out a number of publications: about four books in which they tried to justify the legacy of the administration, including reports by the Presidential Communication Council (PCC) and the Buhari Media Council (BMC). In a flurry of speeches, the outgoing President himself reminded everyone not to look at the debt overhang that he was leaving behind, but what he did with the borrowings: infrastructure development, reforms, reduction of insecurity, repatriation of stolen loot, the ease of doing business. In more than six months after assuming office, the Buhari administration could not appoint key Ministers or get the government going. The President himself spent more than a year in UK hospitals on medical tourism.
He began his tour of duty with an ear challenge that had to be treated in the UK. He ended it with a toothache that could only be attended to by specialists in the same UK. But in fairness to President Buhari, he finished on a physically strong note. His last two weeks in power was characterized by a burst of youthful energy. The Federal Executive Council approved contracts and memos, in one week – 83!. Legacy projects were launched - the Second Niger Bridge, the Dangote Refinery, housing projects etc. President Buhari left behind a much stronger statement as he departed than he did when he arrived. Many have interpreted this to mean that he tried to set a trap for his successor. I don’t think so. After all, the transition that Nigeria has seen is APC to APC, it is more or less the same party remaining in power even if it is the ACN wing of the APC coalition replacing the old ANPP/CPC wing. The former headed by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu formed an alliance with others to get rid of the Jonathan government in 2015. At the risk of sounding superstitious and protean, I think the events of the past week would seem to point to one thing- retributive justice. Karma is truly a bitch. The God of Jonathan would seem to be at work.
In the Holy Bible (1 and 2 Samuel), the story is well told of Jonathan’s faith in God. He did not ascend to the throne because of his father, Saul’s sin, and he may have died in battle at Mount Gilboa, but students of the Word will remember his valiant outreach against the Philistines. He told his armor bearer: “it may be that the Lord will work for us…” (1 Samuel 14: 1-15). In the midst of the onslaught on members of the Jonathan administration in 2015, after the general elections of that year, the persecution was so much by the new administration that people advised President Jonathan to speak up to defend his team or pay a visit to President Buhari to protest. One evening, President Jonathan told me in his library: “Reuben there is no point… after God, it is government and government can do and undo. But what I believe is that our God will fight for us”. The reader is advised to fill in the gaps as you may deem fit, but I have chosen to use the above title, advisedly in reference to that 2015 conversation and in the limited context of the current outrage over the fuel subsidy removal debacle. Outrage is even a simple word in the context of the brewing crisis. My friend and brother, Patrick Obahiagbon, the grammarian describes the emerging situation as “supercalifragilisticcepalalidocious.” I have since given up searching for that word in the English language dictionary, simply because I have a deadline to meet to submit this piece to the editor. But Obahiagbon’s word twists the tongue in the same manner in which current events in Nigeria are twisting the mind.
It is a known fact that in January 2012 when President Jonathan’s administration announced the deregulation of the downstream sector, otherwise known as fuel subsidy removal, the same people who opposed the government and organized protests at Ojota, Lagos, Abuja, Minna, Ilorin, and in other parts of Nigeria, even in London, are the same people who have now since returned to the same original arguments about the non-sustainability of the subsidy regime. When they wanted power, they whipped up sentiments against President Jonathan. At Ojota in Lagos, they carried coffins, they portrayed Jonathan in a derogatory manner, they danced, wore specially made T-shirts, they served designer jollof rice. They called it “Occupy Nigeria.” The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress were involved and they had the backing of the opposition. There were casualties. The government stood its ground. Then Minister of the Economy and Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, now WTO Director-General threatened to resign if the government reversed itself. The CBN Governor at the time, HRM Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was one of the more outspoken defenders of the simple proposition that fuel subsidy was unsustainable. The Jonathan administration had proposed a 120% increase in the price of petrol. Hell was let loose. In Ojota, speeches were made by civil society leaders: Pastor Tunde Bakare, Dr. Tunji Braithwaite and a host of others. Many believed that the 2012 “Occupy Nigeria” protest was a major cause of the Jonathan administration’s early loss of goodwill. It was all politics though. But ironically, the same people who turned the matter into partisan politics, upon assumption of power in 2015, started by increasing fuel price from N87 per litre to N145, later to N195 and they met little or no resistance indicating that the crisis of 2012 was indeed stage-managed. Not too long ago, a man I respect told me that President Tinubu did not sponsor the protests of 2012. But nobody has denied an article in circulation titled “Removal of Oil Subsidy: President Jonathan breaks social contract with the people – by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu” (January 11, 2012.)
I am tempted to quote the essay in extenso, but I guess, a few excerpts would be adequate. Tinubu wrote inter alia as follows: “I am not calling President Jonathan an evil man. I do not believe he is perverse. However, the economic ideas controlling him are so misguided and that they have a perverse impact. Because he is slave to wrong-headed economics, the people will become enslaved to greater misery. This crisis will bear his name and will be his legacy. The people now pay a steep tax for voting him into office. The removal of the subsidy is the Jonathan tax. This situation shows that ideas count more than personalities. People may occupy office but how that person performs depends on the ideas that occupy his mind.”
He added: “Though someday, Nigeria will have to remove the subsidy the time to do it is not now. This subsidy removal is ill-timed and violates the condition precedent necessary before such a decision is made. First, government needs to clean up and throw away the salad of corruption in the NNPC. Then proceed to lay the foundation for a mass transit system in the railways and road network with long term bonds and fully develop the energy sector towards revitalizing Nigeria’s economy and easing the burden any subsidy removal may have on the people.”That was Tinubu on the marble.
As a witness to history, I know that before the Jonathan administration announced any deregulation of the downstream sector, the term we used then, he had set up a verification panel to study and advise the government on the subsidy regime. The team under the auspices of the Ministry of Finance was chaired by Aig Aig-Imoukhuede. The committee reported that the subsidy regime was a big scam, the play-field of rent collectors who submit fraudulent claims to the government and that 21 firms had stolen about N383 billion subsidy money. The proposed deregulation was to check rent-collection, inefficiency, arbitrage and smuggling. For these and other reasons, it was submitted that the subsidy regime was unsustainable. Yet another committee was set up to review the submissions of the Aig-Imoukhuede committee. The same conclusions were reached. Then the government embarked on consultations with a broad spectrum of stakeholders. As the President’s spokesperson and media adviser, it was part of my job to take notes and mobilize my team to provide communications infrastructure support. Meetings were held at the main conference centre at the Villa, House 11 and sometimes at the First Lady’s Conference Room. Ahead of the announcement of the fuel subsidy removal as it became known, the Jonathan administration also set up a Subsidy Reinvestment Committee and announced palliatives. Key government officials were given time off to travel to their constituencies to explain to the people that the policy would be in the best interest of the poor.
I have quoted Asiwaju Tinubu at length. Please has he now heeded his own advice of 2012? He was sworn in as President on May 29, and he promptly slammed fuel subsidy removal on the people. Nobody knows when and how, if any, consultation was carried out. The conversation about subsidy removal has been mainly elitist. Nobody has tried to speak to the people, or give them hope, the same hope that is said to be the original mission of the Tinubu administration. Anderson, Brady and Bullock (1978), E. Young and L. Quinn (2002) and Augustine Eneanya (2020) in their analysis of the public policy making process agree that no matter how valid a public policy may be, it is important to secure multi-stakeholder adoption of the agenda to generate a sense of ownership and easy implementation. By dictating to the people on the first day in office, without even any attempt at communication which is central to policy-making, the Tinubu administration obviously misses the theory and the strategy. Trying to intimidate organized labour, or relying on the politics of divide and rule also misses the point. Social problems are complex, they cannot be resolved with arrogance or hypocrisy as has been well-exposed.
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Peter Obi and Atedo Peterside have reportedly asked President Tinubu to apologize to President Jonathan. Of what use would the apology be in the circumstance? Buhari has thrown the Gordian knot into Tinubu’s laps. He should untie it. The irony is that his own hands are tied. He won’t be able to blame Buhari for the problems of Nigeria as Buhari did to his own predecessor. Act One, Scene One: we will watch as the movie unfolds.