In 1973, writer and dermatologist, Professor Anezi Okoro published a novel for young adults titled “One Week, One Trouble.” It tells the story of Wilson Tagbo, a secondary school student, who from the first day he got enrolled until he got to senior secondary 3 grade, had one trouble or the other in what was clearly a process of becoming and self-discovery. “One Week, One Trouble” made it to the Nigerian school curriculum, and has further become a ready reference for the reckless manner in which Nigerian politicians are drawn to controversies like flees to nectar. Accordingly, we have had cause to use this phrase to describe the reign of impunity, ego and chaos that has now overtaken the oil-rich Niger Delta state of Rivers. If Wilson Tagbo got into trouble on a weekly basis, the situation in Rivers is worse. For the past three months, Rivers has been experiencing trouble on a daily basis, creating a situation that is best described as “One Day, One Trouble” in a two-hander plot featuring Nyesom Wike, former Governor of Rivers State, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and his successor, the incumbent Governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara. The conflict and the drama are a classic stuff of godfather-godson relations in Nigerian politics.

As it was in the past, so it is now, and so shall it be in the future, except Nigeria de-monetizes its politics, emphasizes the integrity of the people’s vote and insists on transparency and accountability of processes, and institutions. More than 24 years after Nigeria’s return to civilian rule, the pervasive opinion is that democracy in Nigeria is putative. What usually happens is that a Godfather with too much money or influence, acquired through control of state resources which he can deploy at will, as in the case of incumbent Governors seeking to cover their backs, by installing a successor through whom they can continue to rule, even after leaving office as constitutionally mandated, or the Godfather may be a man of influence whose political weight is built on the widely acknowledged assumption that he has direct control of critical institutions of state and that his will could override the people’s wish. Godfathers in Nigerian politics are genetically delusionary. One after the other we have seen them exhibiting a Messianic complex until they are either reminded that they are human, all too human, or they succeed in removing the recalcitrant anointed godson. Between the two polarities is a lot of melodrama, the type we are now witnessing in Rivers State, and as we saw before in Enugu state between Jim Nwobodo and Chimaroke Nnamani, in Anambra State, Chris Uba vs. Chris Ngige, in Oyo Sate, Lamidi Adedibu vs. Rasheed Adewolu Ladoja, in Kano State, Abdullahi Ganduje vs. Rabiu Kwankwaso, in Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole vs. Godwin Obaseki, in Delta, James Ibori vs. Ifeanyi Okowa, and in Lagos, Bola Tinubu vs. Akinwunmi Ambode.

The sociology of godfatherism in Nigerian politics is a complex power game, and it is not restricted to anointed Governors. Even lawmakers and local government chairmen owe their emergence in public positions to the dexterity of Godfathers. This may involve the anointed godson being asked to enter into a covenant to hand over a percentage of state resources to the Godfather and his wife every month – in Lagos, they call it “Baba ke e pe”. The exponent of Amala politics in Oyo state fell out with Rasheed Ladoja because having assumed office, the latter did not see why he should continue to hand over 15% of state resources to Adedibu on a monthly basis. Occultism is also involved. Chris Uba took Chris Ngige to the Okija shrine stripped to his under-wears, to pledge that he will always be loyal to the master. When Chris Ngige reneged and began to assert himself, Chris Uba released photos from the dreaded Okjja shrine. Chris Ngige did not deny but he said he went to the shrine with his Bible – his own talisman! This is the level of decay and rank opportunism in Nigerian politics. People would do anything to be in power without working for it, and that is why there are so many dumb persons in the top most corridors of power.

We do not yet know what pact, Satanic or Godly that Sim Fubara entered into with his Godfather. Was he also taken to a shrine? Did he sell his soul to become Governor? What agreements did he reach with Wike? What code of honour did they both agree to which is now causing trouble? What can be established is that Fubara is a political creation of Nyesom Wike, who made him Government House Accountant, Permanent Secretary, Government House, and later Accountant General of the State. As his eight-year tenure came to a close, Wike decided that Fubara who had always been in charge of the Rivers state’ accounts should be rewarded with the biggest diadem, the Governorship of the state. During the campaigns, not many people knew Fubara, other than that he was the man Wike wanted to make Governor. Wike was all over the place campaigning for him. And he put him in office as a PDP successor, despite his own defiant relationship with their party at the National level. When opposition parties challenged Fubara’s election at the tribunal, Wike again stepped in. He must have trusted Fubara so much. The big mistake he made though is that he is a poor student of history and human nature, now projecting himself as a victim of his own contradictions. His critics have had cause to remind him that it is Karma at work. Even one Eze Eze who would never have dared to talk back at Wike in his glorious season as Rivers Governor is now talking. Wike used to tell traditional rulers to shut up publicly, and they would literally shut up and say “Yes sir,” on top of it.

Relationships between Godfathers and their anointed candidates have not always been rosy. In the aforementioned cases, the Godsons always managed to get the Godfathers off their backs. Ladoja fought all the way to the Supreme Court and he was reinstated. Obaseki watered down Oshiomhole’s influence. Ganduje clamped down on the Kwankwasiyya Movement and drove Kwankwaso out of Kano. The latter’s attempt at a return is currently the cause of trouble in Kano State. The only Godfather that seems to have survived would be Bola Tinubu of Lagos. He is probably the most ruthless of all the Godfathers. He has been described as a man who knows how to identify and groom talents, but when the same persons try to assert themselves, he crushes them without batting an eyelid. Babatunde Raji Fashola as Governor and Tinubu’s successor had ideas of his own, and he was making tremendous impact and taking credit. He had to be reminded that he could not outshine the master. Somehow, he survived. Akinwunmi Ambode, a Fulbright scholar, first class brain, who succeeded Fashola was not so lucky. He was denied a second term because the Godfather got tired of him. Nigerian Godfathers are not looking for scholars and first-class brains. They want slaves and yes boys and girls. For example, when Umo Eno, the incumbent Governor of Akwa Ibom State became Governor, he, 59, knelt down before Udom Emmanuel, 57, to pledge his allegiance. In Kogi State, after the November 11 off-cycle Gubernatorial election in the state won by Ahmed Usman Ododo, Governor Yahaya Bello’s anointed candidate, he and his elected Deputy took their certificates of return to the Governor, knelt and bowed before him in a show of gratitude. Nobody knows what the relationship would be tomorrow in Kogi and Akwa Ibom states between the Godfathers and their “anointed successors”. The whole idea of anointment is a mockery of Nigeria’s democratic process. Where are the people?

The catalyst for the trouble in Rivers state is perhaps because Fubara showed his hands too early. Within six months of assuming office, hell had been let loose, and he had burnt the bridge that brought him to power. Is there a lesson here about the character of godsons in Nigerian politics? When they want power, they are every shade of humility. Ganduje was so humble and loyal, Kwankwaso could never have suspected him. In Fubara’s case, pro-Wike actors in the conflict allege that a certain unnamed woman is the one pushing Fubara to fight the Godfather and assert himself. Nigerian politics is the strangest theatre of the absurd, worse than what Martin Esslin who wrote a book on the subject taught us. Whatever that woman brings to Fubara’s table must be very strong indeed! However, Fubara’s supporters argue that there is trouble, not because Fubara, an ordinarily obedient person, wants to burn bridges, but because as they say in street parlance, Wike’s own is “too much”. He is accused of breathing down too hard on Fubara’s neck. It is alleged that all the appointees in the Rivers government are direct appointees of the Godfather with express instructions to spy on Fubara and checkmate him. Wike, it is further alleged even as former Governor still approves projects and expenditures. Fubara as Governor is not allowed to travel out of the state without Wike’s permission. His wife is also not allowed to attend functions. State vehicles bought with tax payers’ money are all controlled by Wike from Abuja. In the wake of the crisis, nine commissioners have since resigned from the cabinet, reportedly on Wike’s instructions, and just take a look at the portfolios: Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Works, Finance, Special Projects, Transport, Housing, Environment, Education, and Social Welfare and Rehabilitation. Who else is reporting directly to the Governor? The trouble reached a turning point over the weekend when Hon. Boma Goodhead, representing Asari Toru/Akuku Toru Federal Constituency publicly accused Wike of making away with state resources to the tune of about $300 million that came from Shell, and for fleecing the state of N9 billion monthly. Goodhead has called on the Department of State Services, the EFCC and the Police to do the needful and arrest Wike. She has also called on President Bola Tinubu to call Wike, his Minister to order.

The Wike-Fubara: “if you Wike me, I will Fubara you, dey your dey, nobody worry nobody” saga has polarized Rivers state along ethnic and political lines. Even if the dust settles, the effect will linger. Those who once argued that Fubara was Igbo have now all queued up behind him as a symbol of the Ijaw nation, with the Ijaw Youth Council, and the Ijaw National Congress threatening that any attempt to remove Fubara from office would amount to an assault on the Ijaw nation. Professor Benjamin Okaba has boasted publicly that Ijaws are not scared of Wike and if he tries anything against Fubara, there would be fire. Similarly, the Rivers Council of Leaders and Elders, and the leader of the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Chief E. K. Clark have issued statements asking Tinubu to call Wike to order. Hon. Goodhead accuses Wike of having everybody in his pocket: the judiciary, the security agencies, INEC, the Chief of Staff and the President himself. Wike’s pocket must be very big indeed. I am surprised how he still manages to walk around, with that much heavyweight under his control. He says however that he is only protecting his political structures, and Fubara who never bought a form to become Governor must stop hobnobbing with his enemies in the state. Fubara says he is Governor and he wants to be respected.

And yet Wike was not always like this. I knew him as Minister of State for Education, and later substantive Minister in the Goodluck Jonathan administration. The Wike of those days cut the picture of a perfect gentleman. I used to visit him at home in his Asokoro residence, we lived in the same neighbourhood. He was a great, affable host. There was always something to eat and chew by the pool side or in his main living room. “Olorun sa maa je ki won fi eran dindin ati peppersoup gbe mi lo o!” The moment Wike became Governor in Rivers state, the reports about him in the public domain, the controversies that he generated and the Hitlerite manner in which he rode roughshod over the state can only be explained off as what too much money and power does to people. He also became powerful beyond Rivers. He took over the control of the PDP. The party having lost power at the centre in 2015, Wike was the only surviving Governor who took it upon himself to finance the party and kept it alive. Other PDP Governors couldn’t be bothered.

In 2022/3, Wike decided to call in his goodwill, only to be resisted by other stakeholders in the party. He promised that having not allowed a Southerner to be the party’s Presidential flagbearer, by which he meant himself, the PDP would lose the 2023 Presidential election. He divided the party, openly hobnobbed with the APC, and he had his way. He has been rewarded by President Tinubu for this with the portfolio of the Minister of the FCT. His own party has been very quiet about his brazen anti-party activities. He has dared the party to whip him into line if it can. In the present instance in Rivers, it is said that he is the main author of the trouble that has led to the reported plans to impeach Governor Fubara, the division of the state House of Assembly into two factions: Fubara group of 5, vs. the Wike group of 26, with the former arguing that with the latter defecting to the rival APC, they are automatically no longer members of the House. Today, there is a lawyer on every street corner of Port Harcourt interpreting Section 109 (1)(g) of the 1999 Constitution and quoting precedents from FEDECO vs. Goni to Abegunde vs. Ondo State House of Assembly. The judiciary has also been dragged in with reports of forum shopping, leaked judgments and ex parte orders. The State House of Assembly has since been demolished by the Fubara government. Perhaps the crisis will be resolved, in the long run, at the law courts if commonsense does not prevail.

Certainly not by President Tinubu. Badly-behaved politicians should stop calling on President Tinubu to come and help them solve problems that they have created in their states. He is President, not a Headmaster or Supervisor. He intervened in Ondo state twice, but the problem was resolved only when the rule of law was obeyed. Rivers people should leave him alone. Kano people should stop bothering him. Go and put your house in order. Do not turn Tinubu into a dictator and then, return later to complain that Nigeria is a federal system.

The biggest story in Nigeria at the moment is the size of Nigeria’s delegation to the Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Summit on Climate Change, otherwise known as COP 28. In simple terms, the objective of the Conference of Parties is to secure multilateral, bilateral agreements on the consensus by a panel of international, intergovernmental, climate change scientists (IPCC) that for our world to be save, global temperatures must be kept at a level not above 1.5C, as adopted in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, beyond which the whole world will be at risk. Before this year’s conference, it was disclosed in a UN Report that the world was indeed endangered and that the threshold could go beyond 2 degrees C. By September 2023, the world had exceeded the projected limit, far above pre-industrial levels.

This was meant to put pressure on world leaders to pay more attention to the threats of carbon emission, climate change, and the impact on human communities, that is challenges induced within the global ecosystem by the rise in sea levels, hurricanes, floods and environmental disasters, occasioned by man’s abuse of and neglect of the environment: man-made, man-conditioned environmental crisis. Climate adaptation, carbon markets, and climate financing are issues that have been atop the global agenda in the last three and more years. UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, said the “emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon”.

From COP 26 in Glasgow, Scotland, to COP 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, the Africa Climate Week organized by the African Development Bank Group in Nairobi, Kenya, in September 2023 (Africa’s 11th Conference on the subject), and now the COP 28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the goal has been to keep global warming to a limit of 1.5C or 2 C.– the second threshold in the Paris Agreement. High income countries account for the bulk of green-house gas emissions. At COP 26, commitments and pledges were made across the public and private sectors. At COP 27, in Egypt last year, many key arrangements remained unresolved, especially the demand by the developing countries for a loss and damage fund to compensate low-income nations. The main achievement of this year’s event would be the resolve on Day One to agree on a loss and damage deal for green-house gas emissions. Payments are to be made into the fund on a voluntary basis. The World Bank will host the fund for four years on an interim basis. A number of countries have already made pledges: Germany ($100 m), UAE ($100m), United States ($17.5 m) and Japan ($10 m). It is still a far cry from what is required, but it is a historic, hard-fought achievement.

For good reason, Nigeria is a participant at COP 28. We showed up in 2021at COP 26, where during the presentation of National Statements, President Muhammadu Buhari pledged Nigeria’s commitment to a net-zero emission policy. Buhari was not in Egypt for COP 27, the country was represented by Mohammed Abdullahi who was then Minister of Environment. This year at COP 28, Nigeria’s new President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is fully on the ground in Dubai for the World Climate Action Summit scheduled for a total of 13 days – November 30 to December 12. President Tinubu has been very active, participating at high level sessions where he has shared the platform with world leaders including the COP 28 President, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, former US Vice President and Climate Change activist, John Kerry and the Chinese Envoy on Climate Change. President Tinubu has also met on the sidelines with Chancellor Olaf Scholz with whom he discussed Nigeria’s energy needs and the need to deepen collaboration with Germany, Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, President William Ruto of Kenya, President of Namibia, Hage Geingob, and climate activist and philanthropist, Michael Bloomberg. He has made statements about Nigeria’s commitment to end gas flaring, reduce carbon footprint and commit not just to an energy mix, but an eco-friendly future driven by sustainable, alternative energy to turn Nigeria into an investment friendly environment for carbon market investments. He has also been using every opportunity to ask for collaboration with other nations. At the African Green Industrialization session on Saturday, President Tinubu further made a strong case for Nigeria and Africa.

It is most unfortunate, however, that Nigeria’s participation which should have turned out as one of President Tinubu’s major outings on the international scene from the perspectives of economic diplomacy and sovereignty affirmation, has now been marred, irretrievably by reports of Nigeria’s large delegation at the conference- the largest from Africa, the fourth largest globally after the host country, UAE, Brazil and China, attending a 13-day event. There has been some quibbling and tittle-tattle over the exact size of the delegation. I am familiar with that. In our time, when the Naira exchanged for less than N150 to the dollar, and Nigeria was a high performing economy in Africa, with an annual GDP growth of over 6%, Sahara Reporters constantly complained about the size of the President’s delegation to conferences.

If the number was anywhere near 30, Sahara Reporters would raise an alarm, and if I called to complain about a deliberate attempt to de-market the country and the Presidency, the publisher Omoyele Sowore would tell me that he was an Ijaw man who had no reason to de-market his own brother, and that in any case he had a copy of the delegation list. I put it all down to sabotage from within. But this time the situation is slightly different. The information out there in the public domain about President Tinubu’s delegation to Dubai is extracted by the analysts from the COP 28 website, and from reports by Statisense, a leading AI data company, and instructively from State House list. Whereas the details and figures may differ just slightly, what is clear is that Nigeria has a total delegation of 1, 411 persons in Dubai for COP 28. One newspaper reported that the main delegation travelled to Dubai in three plane loads – chartered flights, and the worst part of it is that the Nigerian government did not give the contract for the air freight to any domestic airline.

The total cost of the air ticket for the 590 delegates on the Federal Government’s account is estimated at N880 million. To be added unto this is the vast expenditure on hotel accommodation and estacodes. In a Statisense report, estacode per night for a Minister is $900, Special Adviser $800, Director General of MDAs - $900, House of Representatives member - $900… and so on. The only category that I did not see is the estacode for mistresses, family members and confidantes who according to the opposition parties, notably the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) are all over Dubai as delegates. Ovieteme George, Arise News Correspondent reporting from Dubai, has claimed that he has not seen most of the delegates at key events that he has covered so far, not even at the Nigerian Pavilion: at most, the President and a few persons are the active ones at the event. Our investigative journalists would do well to check the shopping malls of Dubai, or cozy hotel rooms where far more pressing and important climate change discussions may be taking place among Nigerians!

Debo Ologunagba, speaking for the PDP has complained about an “over-bloated delegation” brimming with “cronies, political minions and mistresses at huge expense to the nation”. Peter Obi says Nigeria’s capacity to compete with China should be in the area of productivity, rather than the waste of resources on delegates to conferences, junkets, as well as unnecessary ceremony and showmanship as a mode of government behaviour - at a time more Nigerians are living in multi-dimensional poverty. Waziri Atiku Abubakar, PDP Presidential candidate, says Tinubu is in Dubai for an “owambe” party, an all-comers jamboree, that is ridiculous and indicative of a lack of governance, awareness and responsibility. The only voice of protest that I have not heard is that of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) who have been championing the call for accountability in the management of state resources. Someone has since whispered to me that they too may have their representatives in Dubai as part of the COP 28 party!

The tone of the response by the Federal Government is to dismiss the protests as opposition gimmickry. I doubt if this is politics. Temitope Ajayi, spokesperson to the President, was the first to offer a defence along the line that most of the delegates in Dubai are from the private sector and civil society organizations who paid their way to the conference to promote their respective causes, and that in any case, it is standard practice for all delegates to be registered against their country of origin, in addition to Nigeria being the most populous country in Africa. Ajayi was responding to reports that the Nigeria Council on Climate Change has 54 persons in Dubai, 53 from the Ministry of Environment, 36 from the National Assembly, and the Presidency- 138 and so on and so forth, making a total of 590 on the government list. Yesterday, the Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris fouled up the waters further in a press statement, in which he argued funnily that the Federal Government-sponsored delegation “is made up of a total of 422 persons.” He even tried to revise the breakdown in an even funnier manner. Would anyone ask the Minister, what exactly is the difference between 422 and 590? Can he tell Nigerians the difference between Okeke and Okereke? Sometimes, it is better for our leaders to keep quiet than to open their mouths and embarrass government. Minister Idris obviously does not get the point. He even mixed up the numbers in trying to “set the records straight”.

COP 28’s official published list says more than 97, 000 participants are attending COP 28 in person. In order to justify his spin, he cuts the number to “more than 70, 000”! Very bad optics. African leaders have often been criticized for rushing to any International Conference to mark the attendance register whereas they should be insisting that some of these conferences should be held in Africa. This year, Morocco has sent a delegation of 823 persons to Dubai, Kenya, 765; Tanzania 763, Ghana, 618! Nigeria has a low GDP compared to other countries, the country’s currency is over N1, 000 to the US dollar, inflation is 27. 33%, Nigeria is planning to borrow almost 100% to fund its 2024, 27.5 trillion, budget. Nigeria has now been said to have the same number of delegates with China in Dubai but while China is the second largest economy in the world, Nigeria runs a bankrupt economy. It is so bad that Nigeria imports traditional African batik, popularly known as adire and cassava flakes, garri, that our grandmothers used to produce from China! We even import toothpicks, and yet we have 1, 411 persons attending a conference in Dubai spending to help build the UAE economy. The Tinubu administration tells Nigerians to tighten their belts and make necessary sacrifices for the country to regain and restore hope.

Our leaders must lead by example. Malawi is not in Dubai this year. This is because its President, Lazarus Chakwera, in November, decided to suspend all foreign trips by himself and government officials till March next year. He cancelled his attendance at COP 28 as part of a number of austerity measures that he announced. Malawi recently took a four-year loan from the IMF – about $170 million. The country also devalued its currency, the Kwacha, by 44%. The country faces a cost-of-living crisis. The President says the country needs to save money, and the responsibility for doing so includes every one in government. In Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema, upon assumption of office, refused to collect salaries for eight months, stating that he was more interested in serving the people. He refused to buy new cars for the Presidency. These are living examples for Nigerian leaders to emulate. Most of our people in Dubai COP 28 at government expense have no business being there. We can only hope that all the 1, 411 persons attending the party in Dubai will return home and not use the opportunity of the UAE visa to “Japa.” When all is said and done, Nigeria must institute regular mental health checks for public officials. I simply cannot understand why as part of the main highlights of Nigeria’s participation at COP 28, top executives of two government agencies with headquarters in Abuja - the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) are in Dubai to sign a joint Memorandum of Understanding and make a song and dance out of it. This is the very height of buffoonery and stupidity!

Now, the main event itself: the success of COP 28 would depend on what language is used in the final agreement – whether there would be an agreement to “phase out” fossil fuels or to “phase down”. This is one of the most controversial issues at COP 28 despite the fact that 100 countries already support a phase-out of fossil fuels. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told COP 28 last Friday that “the science is clear…Not reduce. Not abate. Phase out with a clear time frame.” Many other countries have a different attitude. UAE’s Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President of COP 28 was not joking at all when he thundered at a high-level meeting that there is “no science behind the demands for a phase-out of fossil fuels.” His country is in fact planning to ramp up oil production. He insists that a phase-out decision would block sustainable development.

Some progress may have been made with regard to loss and damage funding, Article 6, climate adaptation/financing, but the looming failure to reach a consensus on the future of fossil fuels by December 12 may well be the major story of COP 28. Other countries may not have voiced their hypocrisy openly but there are many of the privileged, developed countries, and Big Oil companies that are just window-dressing on climate issues and the scale of the energy transition. In September, the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak did a U-Turn on net zero emissions. He had earlier approved 100 new licences for oil and gas drilling for the North Sea. Green groups in the UK were aggrieved; they subsequently launched an attack on his North Yorkshire home. He could not be bothered. It should therefore not be surprising that the UK has pledged just a mere $60 million to the loss and damage fund. The US even did worse: $17.5 million, and Japan - $10 million. Payments to the Fund are voluntary, keeping the devil at the centre of the details.

Following the three-day retreat held for Ministers, Special Advisers, Permanent Secretaries and heads of Agencies and Departments by President Bola Tinubu, rather belatedly, three weeks ago with the theme: “Delivering on the Renewed Hope Agenda” some of the Ministers have been jumping up and down, as if the Retreat was the shot in the arm they needed to shift out of their slumber. We have seen quite a number of body movements lately: from the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace, Festus Keyamo, telling the heads of agencies and parastatals under his Ministry that whoever wants to sabotage him through non-performance would be fired. The Minister of Women Affairs, Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye has also made a big show of launching tricycles and sewing machines to empower women – the Pink Riders Transport Scheme. Candidly, I don’t know how many women ride tricycles across Nigeria, but it is the pattern around here that policies are often rolled out without thought or reason or prior research. The Minister of Arts, Culture and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa has also launched a road map for the cultural sector. But the Ministry that is the focus of this piece is Power, and its new Minister, Adebayo Adelabu, grandson of the inimitable legend, Adegoke Adelabu, a stormy petrel of Nigeria’s First Republic/Ibadan/Western region politics and brilliant author of the book, Africa in Ebullition. It must have occurred to Adebayo Adelabu that as Power Minister, he too must be seen to be doing something. So, shortly after the Presidential retreat, he called a press conference where in a copy-cat manner, he read out a riot act to the heads of agencies under his Ministry with the tone of condescension already copyrighted by Festus Keyamo: anybody that does not support me will be fired! President Tinubu may have to call the mini-Emperors, closet Headmasters, in his cabinet to order. Going about intimidating people with threats is not how to be a Minister. One Minister has even turned himself into a quasi-military administrator of the Federal Capital Territory!

However, Minister Adelabu has shown some enthusiasm for the job, and he should be advised on the basis of the things that he has said. On November 8, he told his audience, in addition to the afore-mentioned threat that (2) President Tinubu has directed that stable electricity supply must be achieved before anyone can raise the issue of cost-reflective tariff, which should have been done before now, but with the present administration having removed fuel subsidy, it would be politically inexpedient to add to the people’s burden by increasing electricity tariffs. Hence, the Federal Government is subsidizing electricity up to N70 per kilowatt hour whereas the actual cost should be about N130/N140 per kilowatt hour. Indeed in 2015, President Buhari disallowed the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO). And (3), the Minister said it is shameful that Nigeria is generating just about 4,000 MW. Previously, he had promised that under his watch, Nigeria should have 20, 000 MW of electricity supply by 2026; (4) he promised to investigate the legality of the five-year license extension of the licenses given to Discos and Gencos which expired on October 31, 2023, and (5) he talked about government playing a more central role in the electricity sector. “I am determined to make impact”, he reportedly said.

I like his enthusiasm, but that is not enough. I have seen at least one detailed commentary, on aspects of the Minister’s rhetoric, notably Ijeoma Nwogwugwu’s “Penkelemesi in The Power Sector” (ThisDay, back page, Nov. 13). I want to add my voice to the conversation that my big worry is that Minister Adelabu has been sounding too strident as if he is a regulator. No, he is not, and he has to resist the temptation to keep sounding as if he is from the Moon. The remit of the Minister is policy and helping to provide an enabling environment for the sector to thrive. Nigeria needs a reform-minded Minister in the power sector. The Minister needs to break the jinx, and so, he cannot afford to gamble. The road map for the electricity sector in Nigeria was put in place from Obasanjo to Jonathan as Presidents. The latter kick-started a comprehensive reform. But under President Buhari the privatization and deregulation process got truncated, mismanaged, turned upside down. Nothing worked because there was no proper coordination in the whole of eight years. Nigeria would need a minimum of about 42, 000 MW to jump-start anything but here we are, at the level of 4,000 MW, far behind most African countries and yet our electricity needs, given our population, far outstrips the African average. South Africa with a population of 57.3 million people generates about 41, 194 MW and that is not even enough for it. The Minister is right when he describes the situation as shameful. It is embarrassingly obvious however that he has not been talking to industry stakeholders. Nigeria is not short of ideas. What we lack is effective implementation. He needs to set out by finding out what the problems are. Managing the electricity sector is a specialized job, and there are people in this country who know where the corpses are buried, and who the members of the dangerous cabal in that sector are. The more he talks, the more the cabal people will plot against him. He must ask questions from the regulatory agencies also: what is their roadmap? What happened to the original road map? He should study the terrain and simplify the issues through rigorous consultations. Why for example has the Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005, not worked? Who are the perpetrators of impunity, lapses and sabotage within the sector? Then he must clear the table: Nigeria’s electricity sector is corrupt. All the people feeding fat at the people’s expense, be they government officials or contractors, must be identified and sanctioned through a proper, preliminary audit of performance within the value-chain.

Minister Adelabu can learn from the experience of two previous Ministers. He knows Bola Ige, SAN, orator, lawyer, statesman who was Minister of Mines and Power (1999 – 2000). Upon assumption of office, Bola Ige of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), working for Obasanjo’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) government boasted that he was going to fix Nigeria’s electricity problems in six months. He underestimated the problem. Those were the days of National Electric Power Authority (NEPA). It is commonly agreed that Bola Ige was sabotaged by the generator importers and contractors who were making humongous profits from Nigeria’s inefficiency. Chief Ige later became the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice but his tenure in the Ministry of Mines and Power was a low point in his otherwise sterling career in Nigeria’s public space. The Obasanjo administration spent over $12 trillion on the power sector in eight years. Everything went down the drain. Years later, when former Governor of Lagos, Babatunde Raji Fashola was appointed by President Muhammadu Buhari as Minister of Power, Works and Housing, and some people started suggesting that he had promised that he too would fix Nigeria’s power supply in six months, he quickly rushed to the media to say that he never said so. Buhari spent eight years but Nigeria still faces the crisis of epileptic power supply.

In fairness to Fashola though, he prioritized consultation with stakeholders. He held regular sectoral meetings, even if those meetings eventually degenerated into conflicts between him and the distribution companies (DISCOs), but those meetings offered him a better understanding of the sector, even if the challenges in the sector were overwhelming. Adelabu must proceed with a sense of history. There are other stakeholders in the sector that should be consulted: Dr. Ransom Owan, Dr Sam Amadi, both formerly of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Ambassador Godknows Igali, former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Power, Engr. Beks Dagogo-Jack, former Chairman of the Presidential Task Force on Power and co-Chairman of the Committee on Gas to Power (2012 - 2014), Professor Chinedu Nebo who handed over the assets of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), successor of NEPA, to private investors in November 2013, Rilwan Lanre Babalola who was Minister of Power 2008 to 2010, and a host of others. They are in a position to show him where the corpses are buried in a sector that is practically a graveyard of hopes and aspirations! In his time, Professor Nebo, who is a man of the cloth promised that he would drive away the evil spirits in the power sector. Those evil spirits defied Nebo. They are still there. The Minister also needs to find out what happened with the Rural Electrification Agency which became a cesspool of corruption. Every Minister comes along with the promise to improve electricity supply but the only people who benefit from all the investments are corrupt people within the value chain. It has become fashionable to blame the DISCOs, who occupy the last mile of electricity delivery, but the problem is not with the DISCOs.

Has the Minister bothered to find out what happened or is happening to the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN)? The Nigerian Government appointed Manitoba, a Canadian Company to manage power transmission in Nigeria – a management contract of over $200 million. Money was released to Manitoba but the company was never allowed to function. It could not execute all the projects that it was supposed to manage and deliver upon. Manitoba has since left Nigeria out of frustration. The Transmission Company is now unfortunately in the hands of government officials, the same old NEPA officials whose cognomen is “Never Expect Power Always.” There must be an audit of TCN as soon as possible, and an urgent probe of all persons who have subverted government policy. Nigeria cannot continue to move from darkness to darkness – the unfortunate reality that we are dealing with is that there are incompetent people in the value chain. And how effective is the interface between TCN and the GENCOs and DISCOs? What happened to loans disbursed in the past? The other major challenge is the supply of gas. The Governor of Niger State has been asking for a share of the derivation fund because his state hosts hydro dams, and he thinks his people deserve more from the national cake because of the hydro dams in Kainji, Jebba, and Shiroro in his state. Some of these Nigerian Governors and Ministers sound like they just left primary school, but that is not the focus of this piece today. The truth is that in the power sector, the main source of power is gas-fired power – that is thermal power which relies on natural gas to generate electricity – about 85% gas as opposed to 15% hydro. Nigeria’s thermal plants include Olorunsogo, Geregu, Egbin, Omotosho, Afam, and Sapele. But gas supply is a problem, a big constraint for the GENCOS, in part because gas supply has not been decoupled from oil.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been discussing the power sector with the Germans. Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor was in Nigeria on a state visit in October. Nigeria and Germany have had strong bilateral relations for more than 60 years. Recently, President Tinubu also travelled to Germany to attend the Compact with Africa summit on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting. He and Chancellor Scholz met again and one of the issues they discussed was Nigeria’s power sector and specifically Nigeria’s deal with Siemens, the German company with which the Buhari administration entered into an agreement – a three-phase plan to provide electricity in Nigeria. The agreement was signed under what was called the Presidential Power Initiative (PPI). By that plan it was expected that by 2023, Siemens would have provided up to 11, 000 MW. We are at year-end. That has not happened. Even the idea of mini-grids has not worked. Siemens is an equipment company, not a Transmission company, not a DISCO, but everyone refers to how that company has helped the electricity generation process in Egypt. Siemens has not worked well here because it is mired in Nigeria’s complex web of zero transparency and lack of accountability. As it turned out, Nigeria started adding other things, talking about local content. Which local content? What does Nigeria produce as local content in the electricity sector? Then, COVID-19. Then the Russia-Ukraine War. And then, no magic from Siemens. The German Chancellor reportedly told President Tinubu that generating the electricity is not the problem but Nigeria has to follow through at its end. He was absolutely right. Everything is about us. We have to follow through. Minister Fashola managed to plug some missing links in distribution because he paid attention. Adelabu must pay attention to details.

What is the way forward? The Minister must sit down with stakeholders. When they call him, he should have enough presence of mind to return their calls. He is holding a public office, not a private office. He must also work hard to dismantle the cartels in the sector. The industry needs to be more investor-friendly, and it is the duty of the Ministry to create an enabling environment. In addressing petty corruption in the sector, government also needs to focus on energy theft. More than 50% of the meters supplied so far to consumers are being by-passed. Nobody really wants to pay for electricity because the chaos in the sector is well known. To break the jinx, the TCN must be handed over to concessionaires. TCN and the Nigerian Gas Company are controlled by government. It is not clear how the industry can make progress if government continues to constitute itself into an obstacle. The Minister wants to review the extension of licenses. If he had done his home-work, he would have discovered that the extension is the result of a mutual agreement between government and the DISCOs – both parties having failed to fulfil their own parts of the bargain since 2013.

Going forward, the Tinubu administration must come up with a National Position on Power beyond the general statements in the 2023 election campaign manifesto. At pages 30 to 32 of the Renewed Hope Manifesto, Tinubu promised to eliminate the disconnect between generation and distribution, provide support for meter asset providers, investment for power in rural areas, power sector governance reforms, and what is generally described as “Nigeria First Power Policy.” I suggest that the President should set up a National Council on Power Reforms which will report directly to him, to begin a much-needed conversation about and around the electricity sector.

Nuhu Ribadu, former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) now Nigeria’s National Security Adviser has been very vocal lately and there may well be many out there who may be wondering why the NSA, effectively the country’s official “father of secrets” should be so loud in the public arena. The NSA in any country is an ultra-senior adviser to the President, counsellor and confidant on both domestic and foreign policies.  He is also a coordinator of the country’s security network. But there is no manual as to the style or method that any NSA brings to the office. It is simply a matter of character and choice. A National Security Adviser may choose to be in the background or opt to be vocal like Zbigniew Brzezinski of the United States, and Henry Kissinger who was both NSA and Secretary of State in his time. Kissinger was so public and vocal, he often appeared as if he was sharing power with President Richard Nixon. It looks like Nuhu Ribadu, the current National Security Adviser of Nigeria has chosen to be up-front and centre-stage and we must pay attention to what he says. In the last week alone, he has spoken twice and his statements are pungent. First, on November 13, at the annual Conference of the Chief of Defence Intelligence, Ribadu disclosed that Tinubu inherited “a bankrupt country.” The theme of the Conference was “Leveraging Defence Democracy and Regional Collaboration and Enhanced National Security”.  He told his audience: “We are facing very serious budgetary constraints. It is okay for me to tell you. It is fine for you to know. We have a very serious situation… We have inherited a very difficult country, a bankrupt country to the extent that we are paying back what was taken. It is serious.”

Ribadu repeated more or less the same concerns, a few days later at the 19^th Annual Conference of All Nigeria Editors in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State where in addressing the theme: “Stimulating Economic Growth, Technological Advancement: Role of the Media”, he called for the support of all Nigerians in eliminating all forms of insecurity. Earlier, at the Defence Chiefs Conference, he had praised the military for their patriotism which had led to a reduction in the spate of violent deaths, (from 1, 200 to less than 100 deaths), and increase in crude oil production – from 900, 000 barrels per day under Buhari to 1.7 million barrels per day under President Tinubu. He further said that the Bola Tinubu administration is committed to tackling the challenges that Nigeria faces.

It was intriguing to see Nuhu Ribadu, a former Chairman of the EFCC in the role of a social critic. But he wasn’t saying anything new or original. As far back as August 2016, Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi had raised the alarm that the Buhari administration was running the Nigerian economy aground. He even gave six recommendations which the government of the day ignored. Seven years ago, Sanusi II also warned the government about the dangers of using foreign reserves to keep the exchange rate at its official level in the market. He said the policy would never work! Nobody listened. In more recent days, he has since reminded everyone how Buhari mismanaged Nigeria. Like Sanusi II, President Olusegun Obasanjo in the last seven years has also consistently accused the Buhari administration of spending recklessly and terribly lacking the understanding of economics. Obasanjo has not changed his mind that indeed Buhari caused Nigeria’s current economic woes due to sheer recklessness. Obasanjo and Sanusi II are not alone. In August, Senator Adams Oshiomhole also said the same thing. Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy told us, also in August, that the Tinubu administration inherited a “bad” economy with an unacceptable high rate of unemployment and inflation: “We met a bad economy and the promise of Mr. President is to make it better,” he said.  

The question to ask is where was Ribadu between 2015 and 2023 under Buhari? Where was Wale Edun? Or Adams Oshiomhole, and all the self-styled economists now advising this administration? In 2019, Nuhu Ribadu was in fact the Director of Field Operations for the APC Presidential Campaign. He helped to bring Buhari back to power. Oshiomhole also campaigned for him. Were they deaf then to the protests by Sanusi II and Obasanjo that Buhari and his team were destroying Nigeria’s economy? What Ribadu, Edun, Oshiomhole and other APC figures now criticizing Buhari are doing amounts to self-indictment. They were part of the problem. And since Ribadu insists that the truth must be told: at what point did he discover the truth by the way?, let it be known that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu lacks the right to moralize over the failure of the Buhari government. Did he not boast in the domain of the man he called the Eleyi of Ogun State (Governor Dapo Abiodun) that he, Tinubu was the Godfather who re-discovered Buhari, told him to stop crying, and made him President. Where was he when his chosen President was mismanaging the economy? What did he do? Now that he has taken back what he believes rightly belongs to him, he now blames the APC “John the Baptist” at the Presidential Villa.

There is this traditional folk wisdom that says you can help a man to get a job, but you cannot help him to discharge the responsibilities that come with the office, how he goes about it is his responsibility. It is just that we are shocked to hear from NSA Ribadu that Buhari left an empty treasury and ran the country aground. Buhari met a country debt profile of N12.6 billion in 2015, he left behind N87 trillion debt in 2023! By May 29, 2023, Nigeria’s inflation rate was 24%, the country was left in such a stranglehold that by October, headline inflation had accelerated to 27.33%. Food inflation is now 31.52%, unemployment rate is over 50%.  Buhari left behind a chaotic foreign exchange system, a weak, badly devalued national currency, a compromised, over-politicized Central Bank, a huge debt overhang with the debt service to revenue ratio at 98%. One of the major reasons Nigerians supported Buhari was out of the belief that as a retired Army General and a former military Head of State, he would be able to deal with the challenges of terrorism, insurgency and banditry head-long.  Ribadu who is a policeman has disclosed that he did not make much difference. Buhari adopted the strategy of pacifying and appeasing terrorists. His administration gave criminals “aso ebi.” He served them pepper soup and jollof rice, under the guise of rehabilitation. Till the last moment, the Buhari administration blamed the Jonathan administration that preceded it for all its woes. Even when it became clear that the duty of every administration was to improve on the efforts of its predecessor, and that eight years was more than enough to make a difference, Buhari and his people continued to blame Jonathan.

But here is what Karma has served: in September, Mr Wale Edun said on record that the Jonathan administration stabilized the Nigerian economy, and that the last time the Nigerian economy functioned was under Jonathan. Since he left office, President Jonathan who marked his 66^th birthday yesterday, has remained relevant. His example continues to endure as a gold standard for democratic conduct and sportsmanship. He did not play “do or die politics”.  In the face of the desperation of APC politicians who were threatening to burn down the country in 2015, if they were not allowed to take power, he decided to walk away, and said Nigeria was more important than anyone’s individual ambition. Other African leaders have followed in his footsteps: John Mahama of Ghana and George Weah of Liberia. He is today one of the most sought-after former Presidents in the world – leading election observation missions and intervening in peace building processes. I doubt if any international organization would require President Buhari’s services any time soon.

I am in fact surprised that all the spokespersons of President Buhari who used to spit fire and brimstone have moved on. Notably. where is Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the former Minister of Information? He is now a Special Adviser to the Secretary General of the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). He has moved on. Femi Adesina, Presidential Spokesperson is now Vice Chairman of The Sun newspapers. He is a Pastor of the Foursquare Gospel Church. He has also taken a traditional chieftaincy title from his home town, Oluomo of Ipetumodu, in addition to chieftaincy titles he already had from Abia (Ugo Mba 1 of Isieketa) and Enugu (Nwanne di Namba of Nmaku). Pastor, multiple-Chief Femi Adesina has also moved on. In 2022, President Buhari, trying to show that he was determined to address the economic challenges that the country faced, decided to set up a Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC) to replace the Economic Management Team led by then Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. The committee was chaired by Dr. Doyin Salami of the Lagos Business School (LBS). Members included Bismarck Rewane, CEO Financial Derivatives, Chukwuma C. Soludo, former CBN Governor and now Governor of Anambra State, Professor Ode Ojowu, Dr Mohammed Sagagi, Dr Salisu Mohammed, Iyabo Masha: all first-class brains in economics and finance. In 2022, Salami was later made Chief Economic Adviser to the President. It took President Buhari four years to set up an Economic Advisory Council and seven years to appoint a Chief Economic Adviser. Obviously, he didn’t think the economy was important as Obasanjo alleged.  Exactly what kind of advice did he receive? We may never know. His economic advisers have all melted into the folds of the Nigerian jungle where anything is possible. They are all probably waiting for the next Nigeria Economic Summit Group meeting where they can sound off about macroeconomics, scenarios, and those cliches with which textbook economics lobby for appointments. They too have moved on, in search of the next client. The only man who seems to be hanging around - our good friend Garba Shehu, also seems to have gone possum.  

After President Buhari left office on May 29, Garba Shehu stayed back to help manage communications. He was Senior Special Assistant (Media and Publicity) to President Buhari. He continues to function in that capacity in the private sphere, playing the role of an attacking midfielder in the Buhari team. Each time anybody tries to attack the Buhari record, he pounces, and provides an alternative view. One of the first pieces he wrote after May 29 was “One Hundred Days After Buhari”- an innovation in presidential communications. He has also had cause to tell us that Buhari brought Nigeria out of economic hardship, why Buhari could not remove fuel subsidy and that his boss is not responsible for Nigeria’s high inflation rate. When Mohammed Bello Adoke, SAN, former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice said in an interview with Adesua Giwa-Osagie that the Buhari administration was “the most incompetent in Nigerian history led by a set of political morons”, Shehu was quick to go after Adoke with expletives.  But why has Garba Shehu not responded to NSA Nuhu Ribadu who has in fact outrightly accused the Buhari administration of theft? It has been a week since Ribadu delivered his double bombshell, and we have not heard from Garba Shehu. Is Shehu afraid of the NSA? Is he also aware that former Minister of Communications under Buhari, Adebayo Shittu has said on Channels TV: “In Buhari’s government, if you don’t go and meet him for the next four years, he would probably would not ask of you.” Engr. Shittu, he probably was not aware of your existence! Deal with that, please. However, I have seen, as of the time of this writing, a statement by Mallam Shehu on X (formerly Twitter) to the effect that President Muhammadu Buhari himself would appear on NTA Network, Monday, in an interview session titled “A Conversation with History.” The interviewer should ask him: how and why did he bankrupt Nigeria? His handlers should advise him not to come up with the jaded, contrived, response that he inherited a bad economy, which has been exposed as a blatant lie by those who should know.

This is where the Tinubu administration seems to be different.  Whereas the Tinubu team has been saying that Buhari ruined the Nigerian economy because he was the perfect clueless leader, they have also been forthright in saying that Tinubu is determined to correct whatever may have gone wrong. That is leadership. That is accountability. That is courage. In Mecca, Saudi Arabia, a week ago, Tinubu said yes, he inherited liabilities but he also inherited assets. But “we do not make any excuses”. That is what Nigerians want – a leader who would “not make any excuses”. Buhari and his team spent eight years giving one excuse or the other. Throughout, they blamed President Jonathan, and hounded his team. At other times it was COVID-19. Or the President’s health. Or the Russia-Ukraine war. They even blamed the weather! Meanwhile, they abused Ways and Means and broke the law. Tinubu says he will make a difference. We expect him to do so.

It is not enough however, for the National Security Adviser to tell us that Nigerians “face a serious situation” and that “we are paying back what was taken”. If indeed, it is fine for us to know as he says, then he has to come out with the whole truth and nothing but the truth.  The country’s NSA cannot afford to sound like a social media commentator. He must back his claims with concrete evidence. For acknowledging the right of the people to know, can he please tell us: who took what away? How much was taken away? How much are we paying back? How much have we paid back so far? Who are those persons responsible for bankrupting Nigeria? By making the statements he made in Abuja and Uyo, he faces the test of transparency and accountability. Full disclosure cannot be a threat to national security. Having brought the matter to the public domain, the NSA is obliged to tell us more.

The major thing we know for now is the repeated disclosure by the Coordinating Minister of the Economy that Nigeria can no longer borrow to fund budget deficit, and that it would be unwise to borrow more when debt service to revenue ratio is 98%, and the budget as a percentage of GDP is 10%.  Edun thinks the country should focus more on revenue generation through infrastructure. He was accompanied to the Joint Senate Committee by Zach Adedeji, Chairman of Federal Inland Revenue Service and Ms. Patience Oniha, Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Patience Oniha? Yes, the same Ms. Oniha who used to tell us that there is nothing wrong with borrowing. Madam has started singing a new song…Oh la la…