REUBEN'S VIEWS
Two major meetings were held over the weekend that just passed that have implications for the future of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the possible resolution or otherwise of political developments among member-states in the last two to three years, with implications for the future of the sub-regional organization. ECOWAS was established in May 1975, when 15 West African states signed the Treaty of Lagos to establish a platform for the promotion of economic integration. This particular treaty was revised on July 24 1993, but the essential purpose of ECOWAS has remained consistent: trade facilitation, free movement of persons and goods, solidarity, promotion of human rights and peace. The sixteenth member joined in 1977, making the membership 16. In addition to its many guidelines and principles, ECOWAS has a general framework which also guides protocols and relations among members. In July 1991, it adopted the Declaration of Political Principles as a cardinal rule, and in 2001, the ECOWAS Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. One of those protocols is the underlying trigger for this commentary, to wit: the principle of customary international law enshrined in Article 2 (4) of the 1945 UN Charter which binds member-states against the use of force as a means of changing governments, in the absence of armed attack or self-defence. In 1978, ECOWAS signed a protocol on non-aggression against member states and in 1981, members agreed that in the event of any act of aggression against a member, they would come together in mutual self-defence and protect the victim-state to ensure peace, security and stability, by military means if possible and if inevitable, as seen in the interventions of ECOMOG in Liberia (1990) and Sierra Leone (1998). Even the African Union (AU) enabled by its Article 4(h) can be called upon to intervene when the basic protocols have been breached. This however is a slightly complicated area of the subject which we need not bring into this commentary.
What we know is that ECOWAS specifically sees pro-democratic intervention as its bounden duty, but the effectuation of this has been a problem in the sub-region over the years and to cite a recent example, in 2016, when ECOWAS threatened to deploy a standby ECOWAS force in The Gambia to restore the people’s wish if Yahya Jammeh refused to leave office. Jammeh was eased out and a standby force did not have to intervene. But a turning point came for ECOWAS when the military seized power in Mali in 2020 and 2021, Guinea in 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in July 2023. ECOWAS, with Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu as Chair, thought it needed to intervene to return these countries to democracy, the rise of military juntas in the sub-region being a threat to democratic consolidation. ECOWAS suspended the states in line with its protocols and proceeded to impose political and economic sanctions. It threatened to deploy troops if it became necessary. This was an act of political miscalculation.
In the four countries, there were civilian protests against ECOWAS, particularly in former French colonies of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. The more interesting part of it is that the ECOWAS was accused of being too pro-French. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, the people publicly denounced continued association with France and specifically in Niger, the people openly waved Russian flags and pulled down French flags. From Senegal to Niger, a wave of rebellion erupted in the former colonies, in what signalled a creeping failure of French relations with its former colonies in Africa. Senegal has had to shut down French military bases to assert its sovereignty, in Burkina Faso the military junta revoked gold permits that had been awarded to French companies, in Niger, the government similarly cancelled the mining permit of Orano, the French nuclear producer that runs the uranium mines in that country. In addition, Niger revoked its tax co-operation treaties with France as also did Mali, which broke off from its defence accord with France, and its 11 colonial agreements with the former overlord. In the vacuum created by these new realities, Russia and its Wagner group became the favourite partner of former French colonies in West Africa. The Sahel region has been a hotbed of violence and terrorism and naturally, there were concerns about the implications of the presence of Russia and Wagner in the sub-region and the festering anti-West sentiments in the backyard of ECOWAS members. ECOWAS eventually had to review its threat of sanctions, and military action and adopted the options of diplomacy and dialogue. This achieved little or nothing. In January 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced their decision to quit ECOWAS. They formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as their own confederation as an alternative to ECOWAS. Their departure under Article 91 of the Revised ECOWAS Treaty would become effective on January 29, 2025. The resort to diplomacy, an afterthought by ECOWAS also yielded no results. In July, ECOWAS appointed President Bassirou Faye of Senegal as the mediator with the aggrieved countries. President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo was also sent on diplomatic shuttles to Niger. President Tinubu as ECOWAS Chairman, also sent other envoys to the Sahel.
Barely a month to the January deadline, there was a meeting of Ministers of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in Niamey last Saturday, December 14, where they reiterated that the departure of the three countries from ECOWAS, effective January 29, 2025 is “irreversible.” They however also resolved that the three countries would remain visa-free for all ECOWAS countries after the exit. While the latter resolution may alleviate fears about the free movement of goods and services, there is still the residual challenge of insecurity in the Sahel, and the threat of a further tumultuous season in that part of West Africa with wider implications for regional peace. It is perhaps out of this realization that the Authority of Heads of State and Governments at its 66th Ordinary Summit last weekend, Sunday, December 15 at the State House in Abuja, decided to vary Article 91 of the Revised Treaty and granted the departing trio an extension of six months from January 29 to July 29. This is basically to create room for further diplomatic negotiations in the hope that the three countries can be brought back into the fold. In Niamey, on Saturday, the AES Ministers still made it clear that ECOWAS leaders are too subservient to France. Without being specific, they may well have been referring to President Tinubu who recently returned from France where he was treated to a lavish and grand reception by President Emmanuel Macron. It remains to be seen whether the AES would reverse itself. It is a long wait but as certain as daylight, July 29, 2025 would soon be upon us. In the meantime, the ECOWAS Commission has been directed to begin work on the necessary withdrawal formalities, while the mediator continues with last-ditch efforts to keep the dream of the founding fathers of ECOWAS alive, giving the AES an opportunity to have a re-think.
It is further instructive that at the ECOWAS meeting of Heads of States and Governments, President Tinubu, Chairman, took time out to praise the just concluded general elections in Ghana and parliamentary elections in Senegal. He even praised Ghana’s Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) who conceded defeat to the candidate of the opposition, President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). He praised the government and people of Ghana for their maturity. This was a subtle dig at the leaders of the West African countries where the military chose to resort to force and aggression. Without a doubt, the rise of military juntas poses a threat to democracy in West Africa and peace in the region. The romance of the juntas with Russia and China dangerously positions the region as a territory for proxy conflicts among major Western powers. It is an ill-wind. ECOWAS needs to do more to persuade the errant countries to restore constitutional order. The leaders also need to reinvent and retool the organization.
By next July, it will be 50 years since ECOWAS was established. It would be pertinent to ask: how has the body fared? Has it so far fulfilled the ambitions of its founding fathers? Today, only one of those leaders who established ECOWAS in 1975 is still alive. Would General Yakubu Gowon of Nigeria be proud of what ECOWAS has become? What are the challenges facing the body? How can it be reformed? Mutual suspicion among the various blocs: Anglophone, Francophone and the Lusophone has been a major issue for ECOWAS: how can the goal of integration be better realized? In 50 years, whatever the challenges may have been, it can be said that ECOWAS has been pivotal in forging cooperation, integration and trade within the region. ECOWAS in 2010 adopted Vision 2020, and also later a Vision 2050 roadmap to deepen the original objectives of the association. There may have been challenges: insecurity in the Sahel, Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin, Ebola, COVID-19 and the emergent threat of military juntas, but on the whole, the main achievements of the body deserve to be celebrated. ECOWAS fought to restore peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and has been vocal in insisting on good governance. There are hitches in person-to-person relations within the body, over trade, commerce and space, but the free movement of goods and services has been largely beneficial. ECOWAS ranks probably as the most successful regional economic bloc in the continent, in terms of conflict management.
But ECOWAS has lost steam. It needs re-organization. It is unfortunate that the same ECOWAS that acted decisively in Liberia, Sierra Leone and The Gambia is now the same body that is now being treated scornfully by a group of military adventurists who have reversed democratic progress in the Sahel. Their effrontery is fuelled by the descent into poverty and anomie in their countries. The clamour for change that compelled the people of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Niger to embrace the military is simply their frustration with the leaders in those countries. The people seek change and they embrace it in whatever shape it presents itself, with high expectations too, because they no longer trust their leaders who have alienated them and placed a greater accent on their own elite well-being rather than the common good for the people’s benefit. The people are led by persons who promote injustice, inequality, nepotism. They rig elections and do not allow the people’s vote to count. When the military intervenes, the people see the intervention as a form of liberation from the shackles of oppression. In Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, they trooped to the streets in jubilation, almost like the situation today in Syria with the fall of Bashar Assad and the Assad dynasty, one of the most murderous ruling houses in the Middle East which clung to power for 54 years. In Mali in August 2020, when Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was removed in a military coup over allegations of corruption, fraud and electoral violence, the people were joyous. They carried placards saying “This isn’t a coup. It is a Revolution”. There was yet another coup in May 2021. Similarly in Niger in 2023, thousands of people gathered to hail the generals who led the coup in that country. The urgent matter that West Africa needs to resolve is the challenge of good leadership and governance.
There is a need at the organizational level for a re-dedication to the ideals of ECOWAS, and to develop a higher sense of belonging among the member-states and the over 420 million people that make up the region. As ECOWAS steps into its 50thyear, it is in urgent need of reform and we need to see the members being faithful. At the last meeting of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of States and Governments, Omar Alieu Touray, President of the ECOWAS Commission, commended Nigeria for having paid up its community levies for 2023, with the 2024 levy paid up to July this year. He advised other member states to emulate Nigeria’s example. I guess it has become a habit among ECOWAS members to allow Nigeria to do the heavy lifting in terms of funding while others tag along and yet enjoy the benefits of membership. It is important that all parties pay their levies as and when due. The various structures of the body must be overhauled to ensure equity and deepen trade facilitation. The ideals of free movement of persons across the region should be enhanced. It must be possible for any national of an ECOWAS state to live and work in any of the member states without being subjected to undue discrimination or harassment. The celebration of ECOWAS at 50 must be an occasion for sober reflection and renewal. President Bola Tinubu was elected for a second term as Chairman of ECOWAS in July 2024. He would preside over the 50th anniversary celebrations before handing over the seat in July 2025. He may have listed some of his achievements as ECOWAS Chairman at the 66th Ordinary session in Abuja; he would be required to give a fuller account of his tenure and the status of ECOWAS as part of the 50th anniversary. There is a lot more that can be done.
There seems to be an emerging pattern in some of the major elections conducted in Africa so far, hinting at an emergent character of democracy in the continent, and this would seem to be the people’s seeming determination to change incumbent ruling parties or whittle down their influence or remove them altogether, and at the base of this is a certain streak of nostalgia for the past. In May, South Africa held its general elections and for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority, receiving less than 50% of the votes. It therefore found itself in the uncomfortable situation of having to negotiate with the centrist Democratic Alliance, the Jacob Zuma-led uMkhonto Sizwe (MK), the Inkatha Freedom Party and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) to be able to form a national unity government. Former President Jacob Zuma said he and the MK would not be part of any alliance. Zuma was indeed the nemesis of the ANC.
He is the overlord of politics in KwaZulu Natal, having left the ANC in December 2023. Ramaphosa survived the anti-ANC onslaught but it remains to be seen for how long the government of national unity would last, a similar arrangement having failed in the past. There was yet another upheaval in Botswana in October 2024 when the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) which had ruled the country since independence in 1966, lost woefully to the Umbrella for Democratic Change Coalition, producing Duma Boko (54) as President, with a majority 36 seats in the 61-seat parliament. The BDP was reduced to four seats! Former President Ian Khama (2008 – 2018) was, as in South Africa with Zuma, a major factor in the Botswana election. He had appointed Mokgweetsi Masisi as Vice President in 2014, and when his tenure expired in 2018, Khama supported Matsisi to succeed him. When Matsisi assumed office, however, he simply went after Ian Khama, and ended up reversing his policies, and drove him into exile in 2021. In October 2024, Khama returned with a determination to unseat Matsisi. It was not his candidate that won in the end, but he achieved his aim all the same and the Umbrella for Democratic Change was not unknown to him, having worked with that same party in 2019 to secure victory for Matsisi. And now in Ghana, over the weekend, former President John Dramani Mahama has been overwhelmingly re-elected as President for another term of four years. The people of Ghana looked back and looked into the future and concluded that Mahama is best suited to take them into the future.
Beyond the conflict of political interest and power blocs in the three countries isolated for illustration is the resolve of the people to defend their votes and make a choice, by trying possible alternatives. In Botswana, the economy was in the doldrums, the government’s treasury was almost empty. Government hospitals had run out of funds and facilities. Corruption was on stilts, institutions were prostrate. In other words, the state of the economy was a major issue in Botswana as it was also in South Africa. Over 80% of the registered voters in Botswana turned up on polling day. In June, in South Africa, voter’s behaviour was dictated not strictly by the in-fighting within the original ANC but by a number of complex and related factors, top of which is the fact that the people’s expectations had not really been met by the ruling ANC. The people wanted jobs and a better life. The ANC had offered them a high unemployment rate with many of the youths jobless. Trust in the ruling party is also important to the electorate, and the people were no longer as trustful of Ramaphosa and the ANC to create jobs, get them the social grants that they need and address corruption in official corridors. On election day, voter turnout was 58.6%, the lowest ever in 30 years, a reflection of the people’s discontent. The ANC got 40.18% of the votes, and Ramaphosa returned but the people had made a statement about their discontent. Last Saturday in Ghana, voter turn-out was estimated at 61%, and that is considered the lowest in that country in the last three elections. Outgoing President Nana Akuffo-Addo presided over such a bad economy in a generation with high inflation, unemployment and huge, almost unpayable debts that the people angrily voted out his party, the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
The only exceptions to the pattern described so far would seem to be the general elections in Mozambique on October 9, 2024, and in Namibia, 27 – 30 November 2024. Turn out in Mozambique was put at 43%, with many outrightly boycotting the election in the North and in Namibia, turnout was 76.48%. In Mozambique, FRELIMO retained its 58 years of authoritarian hold on the country, and in Namibia, SWAPO remained immovable even if it produced its first female President, incumbent Vice President, SWAPO veteran, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Analysts have noted that the elections in both countries cannot be considered free and fair, but where the voters were allowed to choose and defend their votes, the people spoke loudly through the ballot to the key point that the people are the mainstay of the democratic process. The challenge for African leaders is to provide an enabling environment for democracy to thrive, for good governance, and for building trust with the people. And when it is election time, to allow the people to make their choice.
There have been many comments on the just concluded elections in neighbouring Ghana, focusing on the lessons that Nigerians can possibly learn from Ghana. I think there are lessons both ways, starting with the Nigerian example. It is refreshing to see that even long before the Electoral Commission of Ghana announced the final results and declared the winner, the candidate of the ruling party, NPP, and incumbent Vice President, Mahamudu Bawumia conceded defeat and congratulated President John Mahama, his main opponent of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). “The people have voted for change”, Bawumia said. This display of sportsmanship reminds us of the example of President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 general elections in Nigeria. President Jonathan not only congratulated General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), he also said famously that his political ambition was not worth the shedding of anyone’s blood. In 2016, a year later, when President John Mahama lost Ghana’s Presidential election of that year, he also quietly relinquished power and handed over to President Nana Akufo-Addo. Between the two countries, there seems to be an emerging realization that the people’s will, whatever may be the circumstances, must be respected. President Jonathan has since gone ahead to build a stronger reputation as a democrat and elder statesman in the West African sub-region and beyond. In an election cycle when we have seen a former President, Donald Trump returning to power in the United States, and President Mahama in Ghana, it is not impossible that there would be some Nigerians out there saying that President Jonathan is entitled to an out-standing possible second term and should also make a bid to return to office as Nigeria’s President. This would however depend on an interplay of factors. The onus is on President Tinubu and the APC not to unwittingly invoke a nostalgia for either President Jonathan and/or the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) among Nigerians.
The second lesson that Ghana had supposedly learnt from Nigeria was pointed out by the Chairman of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu who was in Ghana as a guest and observer. In a widely circulated video, he said Ghana has learnt from Nigeria how to manage constituency election results. Results are announced in the constituencies. Only Presidential election results are sent to Accra for announcement. This comment has drawn a backlash, with many of Professor Yakubu’s critics telling him that on the contrary he is the one who needs to learn lessons from Ghana’s management of the electoral process. For example, voting materials arrived early and the voting process was smooth. In Nigeria, voting is always a tug of war. In Ghana, even if there were scuffles in some constituencies, this was nothing compared to the Nigerian situation where persons resort to raw violence. Election in Nigeria is often a security operation, heavily militarized. In Ghana, the people drove soldiers away from polling stations. They insisted that an election should be a civilian operation. In places where the soldiers were confronted and scuffles ensued, we saw the Ghanaian soldiers not shooting anyone, even when they carried weapons. If any Nigerian voter displayed such boldness to challenge Nigerian soldiers at a polling unit, there would have been bloodshed! The Electoral Commission of Ghana also deployed technology, but this did not become an excuse for abuse as has been the case repeatedly in Nigeria. Those voters whose names were missing in the register on polling day, were still accredited through a back-end database, and allowed to vote. In Nigeria, it is either the notorious BVAS would fail or the INEC server would malfunction due to “technical glitches”. There have been no deafening reports of vote buying indicating that the Ghanaian voter is far more sophisticated, and that democracy in Ghana is more stable. A total of 18. 6 million registered voters, 13 candidates representing nine political parties, 4 independent candidates, with the NPP and NDC emerging as the. dominant two parties – the option of independent candidacy is an area in which Nigeria can learn from Ghana to make our political process more inclusive.
Despite the push-back that Professor Mahmood Yakubu may have received, he identified a lesson for Nigeria that seems noteworthy: which is his comment that politicians in Ghana are faithful to their political parties. They do not move from one political party to the other every election season. The reverse is the case in Nigeria because here, our political parties are Special Purpose Vehicles, organized to win by any means. Nigerian politics is not ideology-based. Politicians would rather use any political platform that would get them into power. Nigeria’s political parties are united by this singular aim, and that is why after every general election, it doesn’t take long before our politicians migrate into the ruling party. In Ghana there is a more enduring tradition of political identity. Prof. Yakubu obviously knows what he is talking about in this regard: names are constantly moving around on the INEC register. President John Mahama lost election in 2016 on the platform of the NDC, he lost again in 2020 on the platform of the same party, and now in 2024, at third attempt, he has emerged victorious. If he were a Nigerian politician, he would have been all over the political space, gambling for opportunity. But he stayed within the NDC, and helped to build it into a winning machinery.
We join others in congratulating him. His victory has resulted in much singing and dancing across Ghana. There are no politicians threatening to contest the outcome in the courts. The people of Ghana, however, should be cautiously optimistic. When President Mahama lost his bid for a second term in the 2016 general election, the key reason was the poor state of the Ghanaian economy, high unemployment rate and the failure of the country’s electricity system. Those problems have not disappeared, they only became worse under President Nana Akuffo-Addo who got so distracted he even commissioned a statue in his own honour in Sekondi in the Western Region. That statue must fall. It must be pulled down, to purge Akuffo-Addo of his own delusions. President Mahama also has to manage the people’s expectations. Ghanaians are looking for a miracle-working President who will offer them a better life. But there are no miracles anywhere. It is a good thing that Mahama has significant experience on the job having been President (2012 -2017), Vice President (2009 – 2012), Minister for Communications (1998 -2001), Deputy Minister for Communications (1997 – 1998), and Member of Parliament for Bole (1997 -2009). He knows the system. He knows Ghana. He has proven ability. Still, he must act carefully. He must resist the temptation to over-promise and seek to over-impress. He must take his time to study the same system that he is familiar with all over again. He knows Nigeria, being a High Chief of Offa Kingdom in Kwara state -Aare Atolase of Offa - and given his close relationships with the country, for a start, he should reflect on the experience so far of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Tinubu was in so much of a hurry, he started introducing reforms from his very first day in office, reforms which have now thrown the people into the deep end. The best reform that a leader can embark upon is in the minds of the people: to build trust and deliver the fruits of good governance. President Mahama should run an inclusive government, and accommodate the finest shades of opinions.
Students of Ghana’s politics and history would be better placed to give a more definitive history of President Nana Akufo-Addo’s legacy, a verdict which should be kinder in good time - his commitment to democracy, his Pan-Africanism, his Ghana beyond aid rhetoric, his management of the COVID-19 challenge, his establishment of six additional regions and his robust presence in international affairs. With Mahama, as President, Nigerians can have their own expectations too: better relations with a country with which we share so much in common. Our brother from Offa, has won 6.3 million polls, a historic 56.55% of the votes, an emphatic victory. President Mahama has been given an opportunity to rewrite his own legacy: at home and abroad. He should not squander it.
“Bros, I dey hail oh”
“I dey greet. What’s up?”
“We couldn’t finish our gist last week. But since then, so much has happened. That is why I am calling. Just to pick your brains, bro.”
“You will have to let me finish this bowl of hot piping amala and orisirisi before it gets cold, and then we can talk.”
“You and food. Apparently, there is no food inflation on your side. With the serious food inflation in the country and the cancer of hunger messing up many families under Tinubu, you still get a chance to swallow dollops and draw soup.”
“It is God. Even though I walk in the valley of the shadow of death…Psalm 23 is sufficient for every child of God. In the midst of darkness, and enemies, the good Lord provides for His own. Let me enjoy my amala and ewedu soup. When I worship my stomach, I am also invariably worshipping God and preparing for heaven. Not to deceive you, this amala is going to the very right parts of my stomach”
“Glutton. Wackie and quench”
“Hmm. Ha..Uh. Hu. Ech hen. Hen Hen. Who did you say killed the mother of Jesus Christ? Ha. Ha aaa”
“Food will not kill you one day. You better drink some water.”
“Hen. Hen Jesus is Lord”
“I am actually trying to tell you that the Lord has done it. Port Harcourt Refinery is now working at 70 to 90 percent. The Old refinery is back on stream. The new refinery will join shortly and Warri refinery too. We should be joyous.The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has been put to shame. And it is a bigger shame that they have not deemed it necessary to congratulate President Tinubu and NNPC Limited who have both fulfilled an important pledge.”
“The Labour Congress is not a chorus group. Not an alleluia group like the National Assembly. They are a pressure group, an advocacy movement. You are asking for too much”
“When government does something that is good, we should be able to say so. It is not every time that we condemn and dismiss. We should be fair.”
“There is nothing to be fair about. There are questions that have not been answered. What exactly have they completed? The old refinery or the new. A refinery or a blending plant, relying on Crack 5 from Eleme Petrochemicals now known as Indorama? Who has lifted what? I hear marketers are not yet loading trucks”
“I hear trucks are being loaded”
“Has anybody talked to the elders and youths for whom petrol production is the mainstay of their community?”
“Which community? This is not about community youths and elders looking for hand-outs or royalties or whatever they call it. Oil refining is a sophisticated business. It has no room for street urchins, claiming Nigeria’s oil belongs to their forefathers. This is technical business, not a project for village thugs”
“Be careful. In everything you must carry the people along.”
“Look. Look, the people are oftentimes the problem. Everything that government tries to do for the common good, some people just think it is their lifetime ambition to sabotage everything.”
“More like some people in government suffering from executive arrogance, and we see it all the time. If the people ask questions, you explain to them. Is the refinery already loading products or not? Simple answer.”
“We live in a country where some people don’t want to see anything good in government. Negative people. I listened to one Mr. Tony Ogbuigwe on Arise News discussing this same subject. He is President, Society of Chemical Engineers. He explained everything. He was formerly in charge of the Port Harcourt Refinery. He spoke like an expert, but Nigerians refused to listen. Some people still came on the same TV station the following day to just talk.”
“Mr. Engr. Ogbuigwe spoke for himself. I am not duty-bound to accept his thoughts.”
“You are an Obidient, what else do I expect from you? Is that not the same attitude you people have brought to the issue of tax reform? Four brilliant bills sent to the National Assembly by the Federal Government to reform the tax regime in the country, look at all the confusion you naysayers have generated. Senators from the North are kicking. Northern Governors Forum and the National Governors Forum think the bills are against them. Even Northern Youths are fighting any Northern Leader like the Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin who asks for tax reform.”
“Are the Northern youths also Obidients?”
“They are behaving like that. People are all speaking out of mischief and ignorance. I suspect foul play over a subject that should not generate any problem. Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chair of the Presidential Committee on Tax and Fiscal Policy and FIRS Chairman, Dr. Zacch Adedeji and others went to the National Assembly to make a presentation on the four bills, Senator Ali Ndume, Senator Abdul Ningi and others staged a walk-out claiming that the presentation was not on the Order Paper for the day.”
“Yes. They were right. Government must learn to do things the proper way.”
“So why did they come back?”
“Because they are more interested in the common good.”
“Leave that matter. Ningi and Ndume have an axe to grind. Ningi was suspended from the Senate for a while. Ndume was removed as Chief Whip. You think they will be happy? The one that surprised me is Professor Baba Gana Zulum going on television to protest. A Professor. Somebody that we all like.”
“Because you all like him, he should not have an opinion?”
“I expected that someone like him would have read the Bills. How would he say openly that if the bills are passed, there would be consequences for the people? Oyedele and Adedeji in their presentations have made it clear that the four tax bills will promote inclusion, equity, fairness and justice. It will defend the interest of the poor. It will task the rich to pay more. It will promote Small and Medium Scale Enterprises. It will change the formula for tax administration. Every state will get 50%, the Federal Government 10%, local councils 35%. Distribution to the states and local governments will be on the basis of derivation. And every state will collect what its people consume through sales tax. No state will collect taxes on imports and exports and international services. Fair enough. I believe the tax reform will encourage competition. Why should Sokoto state or Zamfara collect VAT on beer that is consumed in Lagos, when people in Sokoto and Zamfara are not allowed to drink beer?”
“Very good. Executive arrogance minus political intelligence. This is what we are dealing with here. Not so?”
“There will be public hearings. The Bills have not been passed into law yet. Did you see Oyedele on TV yesterday? He gave brilliant explanations.”
“We have seen kangaroo public hearings in this country. The Federal Government should have carried stakeholders along. Organize a robust debate. The Oyedele committee should also have spoken to the public.”
“It did”
“To APC members?”
“There was consultation with Governors”
“We know about such consultations. But the Governors are saying not all of them were consulted and they needed more time to understand the bills. Professor Zulum asked the right question: why the rush? Let nobody give the impression that once Tinubu decides, then it is done. This is a democracy. We, the people, have the right to ask questions. Nobody should blackmail us into anything.”
“Nobody is blackmailing anybody. Lazy Nigerian Governors must learn to be productive. President Tinubu wants to teach them to compete and be productive in their states.”
“Okay. The headmaster knows it all. He should just be careful, especially now that members of his own party are beginning to criticize him openly. He has not spent two years in office, his party members are questioning his judgement.”
“Who are those ones?”
“Jesutega Onokpasa for example”
“Who is he to criticize Tinubu?”
“He is Chairman of the Tinubu Media Support Group”
“Who knows him? Let him go and sit down”
“This is the arrogance that I am talking about. By the way, is the President back from France? They told us he would be away for three days on a state visit. I hope he has not gone missing again for a few more days after a fashion?”
“Are you alright? Show some respect please.”
“I asked a simple question. If he is back, yes. If he is not back, No.”
“Google it”
“You are an APC man. you should be able to tell me. We have the right to know. Two days. One. Two. Friday. Saturday. We have the right to know where our President goes. He is Chief Foreign Policy Officer. But he cannot travel every market day looking for investors. He must stay at the market and man the stall too. Over 30 trips in less than two years. Haba.”
“Investments and diplomacy are critical parts of his assignment.”
“Accountability is also part of his responsibility. And how would the four tax bills help to attract foreign investments too?”
“Stop beating yourself over nothing. Presidential powers can make anything happen. Look at President Joe Biden of the United States. He has just pardoned his son, Hunter Biden and he hopes all Americans will understand where he is coming from. The fellow was convicted in two cases of federal felony: a gun charge in Delaware and tax convictions in California. His sentencing was scheduled for December 12 and 16. Ahead of that, his father has granted him full and unconditional pardon, not just for the two criminal offences, but also for any offence that he may have committed, or may be suspected to have committed between January 1, 2014 through December 1, 2024.”
“The man simply transferred his immunity to his own son, and saved him from going to jail. This is the same man who in June categorically ruled out a pardon or a commutation for his son. He said he would abide by the jury’s decision”
“That is what it means to be a President. And Biden is not the first American President to use presidential powers to protect a relative. In 2001, President Bill Clinton pardoned his half-brother, Roger Clinton who was in jail for a cocaine-related offence.”
“I stand with Donald Trump in this matter. It is an abuse of Presidential powers. It is a miscarriage of justice.”
“Which Donald Trump? Kettle calling pot black. In 2020, Trump as President pardoned Charles Kushner, the father-in-law of his daughter Ivanka. He has just named the same Charles Kushner as his Ambassador-designate to France. If you were President Joe Biden, you will open your eyes and allow a judge to send your son to jail because you want to be seen to be upright? If you were in his shoes, you will leave office and allow your son to be in jail under a President Trump? He was very clear. He said his son was singled out and that there had been a miscarriage of justice”
“Pardoning his son casts a pall over his legacy.”
“So be it. When you become President, don’t use the powers God has given you. Allow your opponents to ride roughshod over you. The problem with governance is actually the people, particularly journalists who will not mind their business.”
“Journalists are not supposed to mind their business. Any journalist that minds his or her business is not a journalist.”
“And that is why journalists get knocked on the head. I am a journalist. I am a journalist. That was how Fisayo Soyombo found himself in army detention in Port Harcourt. He was lucky the social media cried out. He could have disappeared for a whole year before anybody will trace his whereabouts.”
“Soyombo, founder of the Foundation for Investigative Journalism (FIJ) is not just a journalist. He is one of the finest in the trade. He is a courageous investigative journalist who exposes the underbelly of corruption in our society. A man of courage who has exposed the criminal practices in prisons, the mistreatment of soldiers at the warfront, vehicle smuggling across the border and the inefficiency of the police. He was on duty in Port Harcourt to investigate the menace of illegal oil bunkering and crude oil theft. Rather than arrest the oil bunkerers, Nigerian soldiers arrested him and allowed the oil thieves to go scot-free. Is that what you recommend?”
“If you make yourself a suspect, you can be arrested and interrogated. What is wrong in that?”
“What is wrong is that in this country the good guys get punished, the bad guys get a pat on the back. The army interrogated Soyombo and before they released him, they had reported everything he said to the oil thieves, thus placing him in harm’s way.”
“You have no proof. There is always another side to any story.”
“He was very specific. He mentioned names.”
“Who?”
“You should know. I think you always hear and see things.”
“I hear President Biden is visiting Angola, keeping his promise to visit sub-Saharan Africa before he leaves office. I am surprised he is not visiting Nigeria on his first visit to Africa.”
“What does it matter? He is leaving anyway. He has less than two months in office before he leaves the White House. And you can be sure when that visit is over, he will go straight back home… Maybe Trump will visit Nigeria.”
“He will come and visit you at home”
“Yes. Why not? He is after all, our in-law”
“I also hear the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has directed the money deposit banks and the Fintech firms to start charging Electronic Money Transfer Levy of N50 on any electronic inflow of N10, 000 and above.”
“For what? Why?”
“To generate revenue for government distribution”
“No. To further tax the people and punish them and to create another avenue for corruption. Distribute our money to which government? What do they ever do with all the taxes? I am willing to pay tax but I want to be sure that what is taken from me is used to build roads, fund education and healthcare and promote the common good, not the greed of government officials.”
“Nobody has ever liked the tax man. This is the real issue.”
“The real issue is President Tinubu saying Nigerians lived a fake life before he became President. He has forgotten he was part of that fake world too.”
“I hear that the National Assembly has approved the external borrowing of a $2.2 billion for the Tinubu administration to address the fiscal deficit in the 2024 Budget”
“Bros, I tire. I just tire. What on earth do they do with all these borrowings?”
“There is actually a deficit of $9.17 billion deficit in the 2024 budget, when you add Eurobonds, interest on Ways and Means, foreign debt and domestic debt, and I hear that Nigeria can borrow more in line with Section 21(1) and Section 27(1) of the Debt Management Office (DMO) Establishment Act of 2003.”
“The DMO will quote anything to please any government in power. Is that woman still there? My concern is what they do with all the money”
“They want to service debts and finance capital projects”
“In November? I would have thought that by now, we should have been talking about Budget 2025. This is November. We are rushing to borrow more money as the year ends. Don’t they want to maintain the budget cycle again? I am confused. And which capital projects is anyone talking about? SUVs, for the lawmakers? Presidential jets? Foreign trips? I am sorry I can’t see any capital projects. They just want to borrow more money for consumption, not productivity. The roads are bad. Nobody talks about the railway system in the country anymore. Air travel is a nightmare. The refineries are still not working. The cost of living is high. The average man cannot breathe, cannot eat, cannot live. Yet, the Federal Executive Council approved more external borrowing and it took the National Assembly 48 hours to rubber-stamp the loan.”
“Did you expect anything different? The National Assembly is an extension of the Executive arm of government. It will rubber stamp anything that comes from the Executive and that is the case with the VAT Bill too.”
“But if it is a bill on things that would pave the way for good governance, the same National Assembly could spend years huffing and puffing, but anything that would benefit the elite and make it easier to have access to more of the state’s resources, the APC-dominated National Assembly would act quickly. The real wonderful in wonderland.”.
“Have you heard?”
“You and your rumours.”
“This one is hot oh”
“The problem with you people in this country is rumour-mongering. Una too dey carry gist. Una carry gist so tey, you even carry phone spread rumour that Otunba Mike Adenuga had died. This is a man who gave many of you the opportunity to use mobile phones in your life. The Spirit of Africa. A Patriot. I am sure it must have been one yeye man, using a useless, miserable phone. Nigerians are something else.”
“In Yoruba culture, when your death is prematurely and wrongly announced, it means the person will live long. We pray for long life for Otunba Mike Adenuga, in very good health, upstairs and downstairs and in all ways, with more grace and prosperity. Do you remember the story of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, nationalist, founding father of the nation, pan-Africanist. On November 8, 1989, his death was announced meanwhile the man was hale and hearty and working on a book in his library when he read his own obituary? NTA had rushed to do a documentary on the life and times of the inimitable Zik. Newspapers showed up the following morning with editorials. Columnists wanted to be the first to announce Zik’s death. Such was the force of his impact in politics, business and newspapering. Except that Zik was alive and he lived for another seven years. A burial committee was even announced. Bros, some of the members of that burial committee died before Zik. In Yoruba culture, when people wish you dead, they are actually praying inadvertently for your longevity. May Otunba Mike Adenuga live longer than those who want him buried before his time. So shall it be. Amen.”
“Is it not journalists? When journalists are not killing people, they are sending them to jail, without conviction. Who is a journalist these days?”
“I don’t know. I guess things are so bad now that anybody with access to the internet can put any information out there on social media. It is the price that the world is paying for the democratization of the information process, the Indomie-nisation of news, the collapse of traditional media systems and the emergence of charlatans in what was once a sacred profession. But let me give you my gist now?”
“Okay. Fire! Just make sure it is not a fabrication by some ignoramus”.
“Hen. Hen. I hear that”
“You heard. Hen Hen.”
“I heard that principal officers of the National Assembly, in fact two of them from the South, locked horns, with one holding the other’s agbada around the neck, both trying to suffocate each other. A blow. A jab. I don’t want to mention names. One Northern Senator had to wade in to prevent bloodshed.”
“The story sounds fabulous. Mention names”
“I hear they are trying very hard to cover it up and to prevent pictures of the ugly tiff getting to the media. My source is impeccable.”
“Oh. Oh. Oh. Story. Story. But what has this got to do with the external borrowing approval. What we hear is that the lawmakers all agreed on that. So, what could be the problem after they passed one of the fastest pieces of legislation in Nigeria. No public hearing. Nothing.”
“It was a fight over who could show that he was more loyal to the Presidential Villa.”
“Must be a fight over who gets what for his own stomach or for his own people. Afterall, you said a Northern Senator waded in. He shouldn’t have, if that is true. What is wrong with that Senator? Who asked him to stop whatever could have been like a Jake Paul/Mike Tyson fight or a Joshua/Dubois fight, He should have allowed the two gladiators to beat each other up, and by now, we would have known more. I like it when politicians fight. We get to know more, because it is we, the people who suffer in the long run.”
“Just as the people of Rivers state are the ones going to suffer if the Court of Appeal declares when it delivers its reserved judgement in the FAAC Allocation matter, that the Rivers State Government led by Governor Sim Fubara cannot receive any further Federal Allocations if it does not have a properly presented, passed and legally valid Budget. Who suffers?”
“The people suffer, and that is because we are running a bowl-in-hand Federation. The states are so dependent on the Federal Government for manna. But nobody should blame the judiciary. The source of the problem is the political gladiators of Rivers State and the elders in that state who talk from both sides of the mouth and serve both Wike and Fubara. One state. Two masters. They have all managed to turn Rivers State into an atomistic society perpetually at war against itself.”
“I know that phrase. It sounds familiar. That must be Professor Emmanuel Ayandele, former Vice Chancellor of the University of Calabar describing the old Cross Rivers state of the 80s, in the days of late Professor Okon Edet Uya who used to talk about Oron-phobia But those ones were even intellectualizing the politics of Cross Rivers State. What you have in Rivers State is sheer elite thuggery, politics without conscience, agbero politics and the dictatorship of one man who thinks he is the lord and master of Rivers politics.”
“So, I insist that whatever the judiciary decides is not the problem. The problem in Rivers state will not go away whatever the Court of Appeal decides except President Tinubu intervenes and cuts off the oxygen that is fuelling the chaos in that state.”
“No. President Tinubu is not the headmaster of any state of Nigeria. It is the people of Rivers State that should resolve their own problems. Let the critical actors solve their own problems. For all I care at this stage, they should lock themselves up in a room and have a slugfest. Whoever comes out alive is the winner.”
“What kind of talk is that? You are recommending jungle justice. Do you want to kill someone? Just look at it. If you lock up Sim Fubara and Nyesom Wike, who says nobody can take Rivers away from him in a room, what will be the likely outcome?”
“I don’t know. This is no longer a matter for the courts. Let them fight, and let us know who is the man”
“This is a democracy. Only Barbarians resort to fist-fight.”
“Then let President Tinubu wade into the matter. This is the point I am making. Wike is his Minister. He is so powerful in Rivers State because he is a big chief in the Federal Capital Territory. The President should remove the rug from his feet. Take the oxygen that makes it possible for him to Buga oh, from him and you will see there will be peace in Rivers State.”
“Now, I am convinced that you do not understand politics. That is not how politics works. President Tinubu needs Wike as much as Wike needs him. It is not about Tinubu sacking Wike. Who told you that will guarantee peace in Rivers? Why should Rivers be important to Tinubu? Is it possible that a strong, properly empowered Wike is politically more relevant to Tinubu than the whole of Rivers state put together?”
“How can one man be so important?”
“In politics, what you don’t know, you don’t know. Politics is the ultimate magic, the topmost art of illusion, known to man. Why do you think President Donald Trump is on his way back as the President of the largest economy in the world, despite his many shortcomings including being a convicted felon?”
“Politics does not always throw up the best people in the society. I know. I guess we must know that. And the people who vote have their own ideas. We just need to let the people know that whatever you decide, you must be ready to live with it. In four years, you can change your mind.”
“Yeah. Yeah. I hope the people of Rivers State are learning and learning good. And we will see how the Americans would learn their own lessons under Trump 2.0 too.”
“Trump has just named his full complement of Ministerial nominees, 15 in total.”
“I saw that, but I won’t say I am impressed with the list. Just a collection of MAGA loyalists, yes men and women and a few old rivals, completely eclectic. What is Robert Kennedy Jr. doing as nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services for example? Another nominee is a wrestling CEO, named as Linda McMahon to take charge of the Education Department, a more or less inexperienced choice. Pete Hegseth has sexual abuse issues, like Matt Gaetz, hanging around his neck. At least Gaetz stepped down before he could be openly disgraced by the Ethics Committee of the House of Representatives. And then this Scott Bessent – an openly gay man appointed by Trump who touts Christian evangelism and far-right ideology even when he may not be able to quote the Bible. Politicians are the same everywhere. They just look out for themselves first. America first in my view means Donald Trump first. But let the Americans live with it. They have made their choice.”
“All said and done, America has nominated just 15 people, not a nominee per state or per ethnicity. I have not seen anybody saying their own ethnic group has not been represented. No Black. No Latino. No Arab-American and yet no issue.”
“It is their Constitution, and their culture. We are talking about America not your “whatever” countries in the Third World, please. This is the richest country. The budget that Brooke Rollins as Agriculture Secretary will control is more than the annual budget of some three African countries! In any case, what matters is what a Trump Presidency means for the world, climate change, global peace, the competition with China. But I don’t even want to beat myself over other people’s problems. In two days, America will celebrate Thanksgiving. I have been seeing some pictures of very regal, fleshy Turkeys. Chop time! Fun time.”
“You like food too much. You are reading about American Thanksgiving and you are already doing long throat. I don’t have Thanksgiving on my mind. I am thinking of Christmas. Will there be money for Christmas? School fees? Money for gifts. I hope you know that today, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria is going to announce their usual benchmark rate, CRR, MPR, asymmetric corridor which will tell us how hard life is, how harder it may become and whether or not we can breathe a little. With inflation rate close to 40%, may the Lord help us.”
“You may be surprised. Benchmark rate may actually come down”
“I want to be surprised. But I actually also know this country so well that when things go up, they don’t come down.”
“Not quite my friend. The ex-depot price of fuel has just come down from N990 per litre to N970 per litre. And that is a fact. Christmas gift from Dangote Refinery through the now peaceful oil marketers to us”
“What a wonderful fact!”
“Our God has answered our prayers, He has sent to us, early ahead of Christmas, a Father who cares.”
“You are right. You are absolutely right.”
“Hear! Hear!”
The battle of the Ondo state Gubernatorial election 2024 has been won and lost, with Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa emerging as the new Governor-elect: 1. 757 million eligible voters, 85.6% PVC collection, 22, 239 security officers deployed to enforce security, low voter turn-out, 17 candidates, slugging it out in 18 Local Government areas, 3, 933 polling units, with over 1, 000 election monitors and observers on active duty in all the LGAs. In the end it was actually a two-horse race between two former Deputy Governors: Agboola Ajayi of the Peoples Democratic Party who had previously served as Deputy to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, SAN (Aketi) – 2017– 2020 before the trailer went between them and Lucky Aiyedatiwa who replaced Ajayi in 2021, and remained Deputy Governor till Aketi’s death in 2023. Aiyedatiwa is now serving out the remainder of Aketi’s term till February 2025 as the Constitution clearly states. When the votes were tallied and announced on Sunday, November 17, 2024, Aiyedatiwa secured an emphatic victory, indeed a landslide victory, beating his rivals 18 – 0, securing 366, 781 votes to beat Agboola Ajayi of the PDP who got 117, 845 votes. Nejo Adeyemi, the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) won 4, 138 votes. Dr. Abbas Mimiko of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) got a total of 2, 692 votes, and the Labour Party (LP) - 1, 162 votes. The margin of victory for Aiyedatiwa was so wide and comfortable that the complaint by the state Chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Mr. Gbenga Akinbuli who described the election as “a show of shame” sounds like a mere garage whistle.
Names are very important to Africans and as such local naming systems are supposed to serve as referents for the circumstances of birth and the parents’ wish for the child’s future. In the South South of Nigeria, a child born when an election was held in the community could go through life named Election, or FEDECO, or Constitution. There are such names as Guinness, Heineken, Annulment, Government, Senate, Professor, Chairman, Census, Praise, Alleluia, Promise: names which may seem strange at first but hold significant meanings for the bearer. Some other names in other parts of the country are literally prayers in motion: Beauty, Gloria, Endurance and so it is with the newly-elected Governor of Ondo State. Lucky: he is indeed lucky. It is not easy to win an election in any part of Africa- whatever all the key factors in any election may be, the eventual winner needs a strong element of luck. Orimisan – My head has favoured me. Truly, the man’s head has brought him favour and grace. When his former principal, Akeredolu was ill, and was in and out of hospital, he was accused of plotting to take over, even when the 1999 Constitution is very clear about what happens when a Governor or President is permanently incapacitated or dies. No man should rejoice over the death of another, for death is the debt that all men would pay. The concept of “Ori” or “chi” as the Igbos refer to it is a major teleological category in African knowledge. It is indeed apt to say that “Ori” has brought the Governor of Ondo state to a place of grace and honour. Aiyedatiwa: “The world is now ours.” How prophetic: the world is now Aiyedatiwa’s in Ondo State. He has now won the Gubernatorial election on his own steam. The nomination battle, the road to this moment was tough and fiercely contested, but the election last Saturday appeared to be much easier.
The point must be made that names do not on their own bring automatic success. Glory is something that must be actively worked for, happiness must be pursued with single-minded devotion, nothing in life comes on a platter of gold. I recall the case of one man who was once Governor in one of our states. He also bears the name Lucky. By the time he completed his first term in office, his performance was so poor, the opposition argued that the state did not deserve any further affliction. Many would recall that this particular Governor’s wealthy and influential father was said to have waded in, and this may be apocryphal, but word soon went round that his father pointed out to the electorate that when a child fails, the simple thing is to allow him or her to repeat the class, so that he/she can pass the examination at second try. Wily, foxy, old man’s wisdom. This may not have influenced the votes one way or the other, but the son was allowed to repeat the class. He actually got a second term in office! I leave the rest of the story to the people of the affected state who are old enough to remember.
Luck and other factors may have brought Aiyedatiwa this far, but he would not be remembered for being merely lucky. He was bound to win the election anyway, having cleared the hurdle of winning the APC nomination ticket. His closest rival, Agboola Ajayi of the PDP could not have defeated him at the polls. Both of them are from Ondo South Senatorial district. It makes simple sense to vote massively for their son who is already an Acting Governor than to vote for an Ajayi who is still aspiring to get closer to the seat. Besides, the PDP is failing as an opposition party not just in Ondo State but also at the federal level. Before 2027, the PDP would have been so weakened by “enemies within” and the mischief of the ruling party. Aiyedatiwa also had the factor of incumbency in his favour. He also had federal might on his side. Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the APC was so elated, he openly boasted in Akure on Sunday that his party’s next target is to take over the South-West geo-political zone politically, meaning the APC is determined to win the next gubernatorial elections in Osun and Oyo in 2026, having consolidated its hold on Edo and Ondo states in 2024. Without a strong, resilient and strategic opposition, the APC may well be on its way to turning Nigeria into a one-party state or something close to it. This is one obvious reason the opposition parties must wake up to their responsibilities.
Aiyedatiwa has an obligation to justify the mandate that the people of Ondo state have given him and the trust that they have reposed in him. He must be the Governor of everybody, and eschew the spirit of bitterness and vindictiveness. By virtue of Section 182 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), he is entitled to serve for only one term, which means that he has just four years. He can either use the four years to write his name in bold letters in the history of governance in Ondo state, or he could choose to fritter away the opportunity. He has a duty also not to disappoint the people of Ondo South who chose to support him. Dr. Olusegun Agagu from Okitipupa, Governor, 2003 – 2009 was the last person from that Senatorial district to serve as Ondo State Governor. It is only natural that the people of the area, incidentally the oil-bearing section of the state, will have high expectations that their son from Obe-Nla, Ilaje LGA would also serve them diligently as Agagu did. While managing such expectations, Aiyedatiwa must also be fair to other parts of the state, and must not for any reason think that the mandate means he must deal with the LGAs of his political opponents. Having served as Deputy Governor (2021 -2023), and as Acting Governor (2023 -2024), he knows enough about the state to understand precisely what needs to be done. He may consider returning to the N19.2 billion Araromi-Akodo/Ibeju-Lekki road which connects Ondo and Lagos States. This 50km road was flagged off in 2018 by the Ondo State Government and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC). Six years later, that road which has the potential to promote agriculture, tourism and industrialization, and create economic opportunities, is yet to be completed. It is one legacy project that Aiyedatiwa, in partnership with the NDDC, should prioritize.
Meanwhile, the question is to be asked: how did the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) perform in Ondo State? Ahead of the Ondo State election, questions had been raised about the integrity of INEC processes especially during off-cycle elections against the background of previous elections in Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Imo, Osun States. INEC’s performance became a bigger issue of interest when the Ondo elections coincided with the report of a lecture delivered at Yale University in which the former Head of State/President Olusegun Obasanjo speaking at the Chinua Achebe Leadership Forum submitted that Nigeria’s state failure is now more glaring under President Tinubu’s “Baba-go-slow and Emi lo kan” administration wherein the state has been “captured.” Obasanjo didn’t spare INEC and the electoral process either. He expressed concerns about the integrity of INEC officials. He called for the institutional reform of INEC. He added: “As a matter of urgency, the chairperson and his or her staff” should be “thoroughly vetted.” Tinubu’s spokesperson, Mr. Bayo Onanuga has already written a scathing rebuttal to President Obasanjo questioning his moral right to sermonize about good governance, corruption and leadership. The fight between Obasanjo and the Tinubu administration is just gathering pace. Soon, the former may decide to settle the argument in a series of letters as he is wont to do. With his coterie of 13 spokespersons, Tinubu may have set up an “Iron Dome” media and public communication machinery but it is not necessary to respond to every major comment about the performance of the administration. The Obasanjo-Tinubu tango would be interesting to watch nonetheless.
To be fair to INEC, the conduct of the Ondo State Gubernatorial election was very much an improvement on recent outings by the electoral body. Electoral materials were said to have been distributed as early as 6 am on election day. By 9.30 am voting was underway across the 18 LGAs. Turn- out was low, but voting went on smoothly. There were no major reports of failing machines, missing registers or technical glitches, even if the candidates of the PDP and the SDP have had cause to complain about irregularities. Agboola Ajayi of the PDP has even called on INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu to resign. By 6.22 pm on Saturday, however, more than 90% of the results from polling stations had been uploaded on the IReV online portal. By 2.30 pm, Sunday afternoon, the election had been won and lost. It was far from being a perfect exercise, and there are strong arguments to be made for institutional reform and further amendments to the electoral framework. It was rather untidy for example that up till the last moments before the election there was confusion over the identity of the legitimate candidate of the Labour Party. INEC, quoting a Court of Appeal ruling, had to wait till the last minute before substituting the name of the LP candidate. This may have contributed to the poor performance of the party in that election. Persons with disability are often treated shabbily in elections. There was no improvement in the recently concluded Ondo state election.
But by far the most notable indication was the failure of the political parties and politicians to turn a new leaf. In Ondo state, there were reports of vote buying. Vote trading is a major form of corruption which undermines the integrity of the electoral process. The politicians were willing to buy votes, the voters were ready to sell, in the basest reflection of the transactional nature of Nigerian politics. The spokesperson of the Police Service Commission (PSC) which reportedly deployed officers to monitor police performance has said that the PSC was able to enforce discipline and civility but this is the same old story. The Deputy Inspector General of Police, Abiodun Alabi who led the police team praised the security agencies “for their highest level of integrity and professionalism”. Votes are sold and bought but the perpetrators even when arrested, for the most part walk free. Security agencies must be firmer in arresting and prosecuting those undermining the electoral process. President Tinubu in his message of congratulations to Governor Aiyedatiwa praised the people of Ondo state for their maturity and civility. With over 22, 000 security agents overseeing that particular election, the least that can be said is that Nigerian elections can be more civil.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain follies of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron” – H.L. Mencken, The Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920.
I was an editorial writer intern on the Editorial Board of The Baltimore Sun and later the Los Angeles Times sometimes between 1996 and 1997 but I do not think that this gives me the right or the entitlement in reflecting on the recent US Presidential elections, November 5, that the legendary H.L. Mencken, master of the English language, master columnist has been proven right on the count of every claim above. Is Donald Trump who has now stormed back as America’s 47thPresident awaiting inauguration on January 20, 2025, a fool and a moron? He was 45th President and he has now thumped his way back in a decisive manner- the greatest comeback in American history much better than the feat recorded in 1893 by Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th President of the United States. In the lead up to the elections, the polls from CNN to New York/Siena predicted that the race was too close to call. There were talks about the seven swing states that would determine the election. Donald Trump has now made history by winning in all the seven battleground states: Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania – a landmark victory that gives him a resounding mandate to reshape America. Yet, this was/is a man who four years ago faced two impeachment trials. He was also accused of inciting an attack on the US Capitol in January 2021. He faced four criminal charges. In the course of the campaigns, two assassination attempts were made on his life. He was even branded a fascist. But he has now ended up as the people’s choice, winning both the popular vote and the electoral college vote, performing significantly better than he did in 2020.
The magnitude of his return speaks to “the inner soul of the people” to use H.L Mencken’s words, that is the American people who have now re-hired him. At 78, he will be the oldest leader to be sworn into office in the United States. He left office in 2021. He was accused of making the Republicans perform badly in the 2022 mid-term elections. But he is back – the first convicted felon to be elected as US President. He has not just won victory for himself. He has re-invented the Republican party. The ideology of liberalism, touted much since the days of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, America’s longest serving President and a Democrat, suddenly became a byword for intolerance and rigidity as the Republican elite rose and Trump seized advantage of the confusion. The pollsters were wrong, dead wrong. This outcome in the United States puts a mark on the value of opinion polls in the United States and the place of public opinion in democracies. Even those members of the Republican Party who lined up behind Kamala Harris, the Democratic Presidential candidate have now been shown that it is precisely the man that they called “fascist”, vengeful and divisive that the average American has now voted for. This is about the American mind. There are perhaps more people in America like Trump than there are of the likes of Kamala Harris.
The questions have been asked: What does Trump 2.0 as the victory is otherwise called mean for America, the world and specifically Africa? Americans have embraced their choice boldly and confidently. The National Coast Guard was called out in the event that there would be a repeat of the violence seen in 2021. The election was described as a possible repeat of the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, but nothing of sort happened. It wasn’t close to call and there was no violence. Trump had threatened to challenge the results if the election was adjudged unfair by him. He didn’t have to. Even President Biden says that the thing to do is to respect the wishes of the American people because it is what they want. Most Americans, who turned out en masse – the highest turn-out figure in 50 years, voted Trump because they believed the American economy would do better with him. Despite the achievements of the Biden administration in creating jobs and bringing down inflation, the average American still thought Trump is a better economic manager. Americans held a largely negative view about their country’s economy, and they were suspicious of the incumbents. Trump has promised to place “America First”. He is first and foremost American, so he would Make America Great Again (MAGA). In this regard, he is determined to impose his right-wing views about biology and medicare. He will drive away undocumented immigrants and make America safe for the citizens – those people from Haiti whom he says eat cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio and those from “a shithole country.” He will reduce dependency on America by the rest of the world by taking a second look at Nato, climate change and carbon emissions, the oil and gas industry and America’s relationship with the world. He will take aim at the Paris climate accord. He will ease restrictions on the oil industry’s emissions of methane. His win is not surprisingly a major win for the big money elite. All the three major US indexes have been doing well since it became clear that Trump and the Republicans were poised to win. Cryptocurrency has hit $80, 000. Billionaire Elon Musk who supported Trump has been jubilating since. Trump promoted crypto during his campaign, backing a venture that had his sons involved. In his earlier Presidency, he dismissed crypto currency as a scam. He is forever changing his mind. And yet the people voted for him.
His provincialism, some say nativism or isolationist approach to global politics has brought upon the world a season of great uncertainty and this has generated conversations and measures around the world about how countries and regions can best protect themselves. Less than a month ago, Russia hosted a meeting of the BRICS economic partners and invited new partners. America is the largest economy in the world and a superior power. With a man who prefers insularity to open engagements with the world, others are obliged to create a multi-polar world whereby America’s superiority can be diluted by the emergence of an alternative axis of power. Over the weekend, the same Russia in Sochi hosted Ministers of Foreign Affairs from Africa where President Vladimir Putin pledged “total support” for African countries. Yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the UK and President Emmanuel Macron met after Armistice Day ceremonies to discuss free trade and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump has threatened to impose a blanket tariff of 20% on imports as part of his America First agenda. This could see the UK economy losing as much as 215 billion pounds next year and affect inflation and interest rates. For about a year, China has been fighting a corrosive deflationary trend with a combination of fiscal and economic stimulus. Trump’s emergence makes China’s situation even more serious. Russia and Ukraine, North Korea, South Korea, Iran, Taiwan are also at the epicentre of the emerging geo-politics. Trump has promised that he would solve the problem between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. Does that mean he would force Ukraine to negotiate and cede territory? Trump’s politics has driven up the self-interest quotient in international politics. In Asia, the Middle East and the Pacific Rim, countries are preparing for the return of Trump. America being the most powerful country in the world explains the fascination with the American election.
Where does that leave African countries? I doubt if Africa is likely to be such a huge priority on Trump’s agenda. Immigration is likely to affect Africans, especially Nigerians very badly. In 2025, Trump has promised to end the African and Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA) which was introduced by the US in 2000 to assist African countries and promote economic relations between the US and the continent. American aid and security partnerships with African countries may also be reduced. Nigerians like to think that they are such an important part of geo-politics. In the lead up to the American election many of our compatriots back home here were very emotional about the US elections as the country was divided into two camps: Trump vs. Harris. Most of the people involved in this campaign had no right to vote in the American election. There was even no way their choices would affect America’s electoral process. In Northern Nigeria, the video was shown of persons waving the American flag and declaring support for Trump. Kamala Harris supporters were all over the local media pushing the narrative that a Trump Presidency would be bad for the world and that Trump is this or that. It appeared as if Trump’s supporters were more of the right-wing evangelical extraction, with the firm opinion that anybody who mentions the name of God was bound to win. Those who opposed Harris felt a woman no matter how gifted should not be allowed to lead men. With the possible exception of those Nigerians who have American citizenship and who chose to vote from overseas, most people simply talked. And Nigerians like to talk. And they have not stopped talking since the election was won and lost. No one should be surprised if before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, some of his fans in Nigeria begin to organize owambe parties and buy aso ebi.
Whatever anyone says, Kamala Harris lost the election not because she was not good enough for the job, but because she joined the race rather late, only after President Biden, her boss, was pressured to step down in July. She deserves commendation for her determination, verve, and the energy with which she sold her narrative which re-energized the Democratic Party. Age, mental acuity and physical health are big issues in American elections. Biden, 81, looked frail and more fragile than Trump, 78. By the time Democrats brought a much younger Harris into the mix, she had a shorter time of preparation. She galvanized tremendous financial support, but she could have done better if she had been in the race much earlier. Biden has been blamed by the Democrats for being the main cause of her failure. Perhaps, he should have withdrawn from the race earlier. With all the support she had, Trump had a bigger war chest over time. American-style Presidential politics is an expensive deal, requiring a lot of money. Trump had his own resources. He got remarkable support from the likes of Elon Musk.
Be it in the US or Nigeria, money is the engine oil of politics. Those who are hoping that they could beat President Tinubu and the APC at the polls in 2027 had better begun now to stock-pile the funds, otherwise they might as well struggle in vain. There are other ways in which the American election reminds us of Nigeria. As soon as Trump was declared winner, his supporters, friends and party members trooped to his golf resort in Mar- a -Lago hanging around, trying to get Trump to notice them. He has made it clear that he would reward those who stood by him in the last three years and the few appointments that he has made so far clearly reflect that. Rogue and desperate guests have taken up hotel rooms and apartments in Palm Beach for the next three months, struggling to get themselves invited to the Golf Club.
Trump’s family members are also likely to feature prominently in the new administration as they did in his first term: his children and in-laws and of course his wife. I am thoroughly amused that some Nigerians are pushing the narrative that Trump has family connections with Nigeria. One of his daughters is said to be married to a Lebanese-Nigerian, from a prominent family and that Nigeria needs not worry about all those things Trump says. He has to be nice to his in-laws. It is only for President Tinubu to explore that advantage. How naïve! As in Nigeria all the pending court cases that Trump has in court are likely to disappear. And by the way, Trump is not complaining because he won. He has been congratulated by President Biden, and he has been invited to the White House on Thursday, this week, for lunch. When he lost in 2020, he did not congratulate Biden. He did not attend the inauguration. This is the man who is now back in the saddle as America’s President.
A Trump Presidency should be seen in the light of risks, opportunities and lessons. One stand-out lesson is how Trump is first and foremost an American. He wants to Make America Great Again. Similarly, those who want to lead Nigeria should seek to Make Nigeria Great Again. (MANGA). Let our leaders begin to talk about MANGA!
Mosun Belo-Olusoga. I am Tamramat: The Fruit of God’s Mercy, 2024, 247 pp.
“EVERYTHING HAPPENS IN accordance with God’s plan and just as ordained by Him. Our course in life is charted and guided by His plans. While things may not always go as we initially intended, with benefit of hindsight, we see the wisdom of it. Maybe if everything had happened the way I wanted; married early, had children early, I probably wouldn’t be as appreciative or as devout as I am today.
Being human, we can easily forget the role God plays when everything happens according to our expectations and plans. I’m not perfect, but I have a close relationship with God and I have a lot to be grateful to Him for.” (p. 235)
The foregoing excerpt from Mrs Mosun Belo-Olusoga’s autobiography, I am Tamramat:The Fruit of God’s Mercy, more or less summarizes the thematic focus of her reflections on her life and times, even if at 67, she is still young enough to have opportunities for further reflections in her journey of life, but within the space of 67 years so far, she offers in this book a very rich account of where she has been, how she has lived her life, the pains and the joys, the trauma and the thrill of that intensely personal, and unique journey. My immediate take is that she tells a good story, that is at once relatable, delivered in an unpretentious, convivial tone, that draws you into the narrative and compels the reader, willy-nilly to reflect on his or her own individual journey. Life after all is a journey, the only destination is death, but in-between that polarity is the stuff that defines our destiny, experience and impact. Mrs. Olusoga falls into the ranks of women in Nigeria and Africa today who literally and practically broke the limits and chains of gender, and displaced the glass ceiling to record a number of remarkable firsts that should be a source of inspiration to womankind. She has a story to tell, and it is brilliantly told.
Mrs Olusoga, or Aunty Mo as she is more popularly known to many, is the first female Executive Director of Guaranty Trust Bank (now GT Bank); first female Director and Chairman, Board of Access Bank, first female Director, Premium Pension, first African Director, Global Banking Alliance for Women in Banking (now Financial Alliance for Women); President, Equipment Leasing Association of Nigeria (ELAN); first female Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Council, Olabisi Onabanjo University, and first co-chair, Women Corporate Directors, Nigerian Chapter. She is also a proud recipient of two Honorary Doctorate Degrees - in Finance from Crescent University and in Accounting from Al Hikman University. With this brief profile alone, she is without question in the same class as the Amazons of Africa who have proven the strength and value of the girl-child in a continent where patriarchy predominates and the girl-child was traditionally seen in many traditional communities as a material best fit for matrimony under a man’s control. Exposure to Western education had helped to knock the stands off the stools of patriarchy especially among the Yoruba of the South West of Nigeria where the author hails from, and parents learnt early to treat every child as equal and the girl-child as an individual with inalienable rights. Aunty Mo is not alone in this category. Nigeria is a country of remarkable Amazons whose footprints have endured over the years and the times: Mrs. Funmilayo Ransome Kuti, Mrs Margaret Ekpo, Hajia Gawaba Sambo and in more recent seasons, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Dr. Ibukun Awosika, Mrs Osaretin Demuren, Dr. Dere Awosika, Mrs. Oby Ezekwesili, and many who through their careers in the public space project a stronger narrative about the place of women in society.
This is why I consider Aunty Mo’s book, a motivational and inspirational book which must be read by all the young women out there who think that their main purpose in life is to “slay”, expose as much flesh as possible to attract rich men and live a life of comfort as “a kept woman”. The likes of Aunty Mo provide better case studies for the centering of womanhood in gender studies. It is possible to be a “Disco Baby” as she once was as an undergraduate at the University of Ibadan where she got her first degree in Economics, Second Class Upper Category, and yet she went on to work at Coopers and Lybrand as an articled Accountant. There, she later qualified as a Chartered Accountant. She was winner of the first-place award for ICAN (Institute of Chartered Accountants) in the May 1983 set, and was also the Society of Women Accountants of Nigeria (SWAN) Merit Award winner for the best graduating female student in that year. Her father, who was himself a Chartered Accountant, founder of Akanji Belo and Co, a firm of Chartered Accountants, was of course proud of his daughter! Her SWAN award was handed over to her by yet another distinguished woman of history, Mrs. Toyin Olakunrin, the first female Chartered Accountant in sub-Saharan Africa and the second female President of ICAN.
Aunty Mo sprinted forwards and faster, steadily and confidently. She would soon leave Coopers and Lybrand where she had worked since graduation as an auditor to go into banking. Her first stop was at Continental Merchant Bank -and here she quickly learned the ropes as a banker- Budget and Finance Department, Loans Syndication, Credit and Marketing. In 1990, she joined GT bank as a pioneer staff. The book assumes a different tone at this point where Aunty Mo talks about her experience at Continental Merchant Bank (CMB) and the “University of Guaranty Trust” as she refers to GT bank in the early days. This section of the book should be of interest to both males and females in any career whatsoever. Basically, in Chapters Three and Four, and in sequences, Aunty Mo narrates the story of her banking career before the rewards that came together in Chapter Eight which is instructively titled “Arriving At the Summit”. Between Chapters Three and Eight, the author shares the story of how she got to that summit. In this regard, one of my favourite quotes in this book is when she writes at page 138 that “In life you get what you put in”. And we see a clear demonstration of this in terms of what she put into her career as a banker. This book is not just about her as a person but the story of her career.
It is about GT bank majorly and also about Access Bank, and about all the persons who worked with her in all the departments either in Credit or Transaction Services, or on the boards where she ended up as Director or Chairman. It is a book about the building of institutions, even beyond banking. But banking is the core focus. GT Bank once decided: We must beat Citibank. “That year, we beat Citibank. We were the first bank to make one billion Naira profit in Nigeria.” (p. 85). Mrs Olusoga provides a Master Class on how to build institutions and sustain excellence. There are ample lessons here again for young persons seeking to build and excel in any career of their choice.
As Aunty Mo advised, at page 138 indeed, “in life you get what you put in”. This is an eternal law of nature. What a man sows he reaps. It is the same as well for businesses and careers. The author was so immersed in work and career, she almost forgot to marry. She had to be reminded again and again that she had been left behind on the shelf. Her youngest sister even got married 10 years before her. At one point she lived in Iyana Ipaja, and had to get to work by 6 am in Ikoyi. She would later move to Ilupeju, and go through the early commute from the Mainland to the Island. Even when she was given an official residence on the island, she had to stay behind in Ilupeju because her husband, by the way she finally left the shelf at the age of 36, did not like the idea of an official accommodation. She stood by her husband! She was right at the centre of the renaissance in the banking industry in Nigeria in the 1980s and yet privately, in her personal life, she had to play the balancing act between career and private life. There is yet another lesson here for younger women in her position who are enormously conflicted about how to strike that balance and juggle the balls, most of them curved balls, that life throws at the career-oriented woman. I would like to stress this personal tale.
Most women are under pressure to get married but Aunty Mo is clear-minded about this and it is better to quote her directly: “The pressure to get married became even more intense,” she writes. “People said all sorts of things…One of my uncles suggested I park my car for a while and commute by bus. “Maybe you will see somebody who will give you a lift”, he told me. It was absurd. If someone was intimidated by my car, would I forever play a role that wasn’t mine? I tell young people today not to shrink themselves to boost someone’s fragile ego. A lot of ladies say they don’t want to appear smart, intelligent, or beautiful, in order not to intimidate men. In choosing a life partner, one has to be careful and strategic. That’s the truth. A spouse has to be somebody who would support you and not feel insecure, even if you are earning more. I used to earn more than Ope. He was working with the Government and I was working with a bank…” Ope was her husband. He was a staff of the Ministry of Agriculture, Lagos State and a farmer. She was then an Assistant Manager at Continental Merchant Bank. They got married in July 1993. He died before their daughter, Nadirah was born, after a long, moving struggle with IVF.
This is also a book about family. Aunty Mo is a family person in both the nuclear and the extended sense. If you ever worked with her or grew up with her or crossed her path, and you didn’t get mentioned by her in this book, it simply means in the view of this reviewer that you did not make enough impression on her to be remembered. I should put that in context though. I mean within the time frame covered by the book, after all, hers is a living and continuing story. This review, in other words, is titled “Aunty Mo: Her Story” but this is also the story of other people, their connections with her and their humanity. Her siblings, cousins and nephews are all over the pages: her parents, uncles, family friends that became family, cousins as well as all the characters at every place where she worked, especially the ones that became family: Herbert Wigwe, Aig-Imokhuede and his wife, Ofovwe, Fola Adeola, Tayo Aderinokun. Chapter Five: “The Threads that Bind Me”, Chapter Six: “The Journeys That Ended”, and Chapter Nine: “The Fruit of God’s Mercy” are about the value of family. In Chapter Nine, the author narrates the story of how suddenly, shortly after the celebration of her 60th birthday, she came down with a condition known as TOXIC EPIDERMAL NECROLYSIS (TEN). She was in induced coma for four months and bedridden for close to a year and she received treatment for about two years. Her family stood up for her. The characters come alive: from LB to Funlade and his wife Chris, Aunty Oyinade, Sola, Mama J, Dr. K., Toki, Queen, Herbert and Aig. The sombre moments in the book are tear-inducing because of the sheer honesty and empathy of the experience. Aunty Mo’s life is a story of trials and triumphs.
And yet in this book, there are hearty moments for humour, wit, laughter and nostalgia that the reader can easily connect with. For example, at page 16, there is the Indian neighbour with the waggling head and spicy curry aroma, and at page 125, the author narrates the story of how a woman who had come to commiserate with the family at her mother’s funeral in Ijebu Ode consumed a three-course meal of eba, rice and ikokore. So she writes “…this was a woman who said my mother’s death was too bitter a pill for her to swallow. Had it not been that bitter, she probably would have swallowed more food. When we buried my father, it shocked me to realise that people could eat on such a sad occasion. When we were cooking and making provision for over a thousand guests, I believed nobody would eat. But the food was exhausted!” People ate despite being sad!” The author’s parents died decades ago. These days, families have to engage security agents to secure food items at funerals out of fear that hoodlums could storm the venue and make way with food meant for guests. Nigeria has now changed so much that at funeral parties, guests could be seen with take away packs, struggling to steal extra food. It is indeed not difficult to see how much society has changed. As a young woman, Aunty Mo grew up in a society where a woman could drive safely around the city, or trek from one village to another without fear of being molested. There was no kidnapping. In those days also, families sent their children to live with other families. Today, Nigerians have lost that sense of community. In those days, it was not a big deal to go and study abroad because Nigerian schools and universities were as good as any other in the world. When she graduated from University in those days, employers of labour were waiting to recruit fresh graduates. Most Nigerian university graduates are on the roads today in search of jobs that do not exist.
Aunty Mo writes about projects that are dear to her heart, her life joys: she is the founder of a training consultancy - the Knowledge and Resource Centre Limited (KRC) and the secondary school she has established along the Benin-Ijebu Ode Expressway, the City of Knowledge Academy (CKA) which is building a young generation of future achievers with the ethical pillars of Culture, Character and Confidence. She also writes about her daughter, Nadirah but she is clearly maternalistic and preachy, the conservative, old-school mummy that she is, trying to cope with inter-generational differences. A good book overall, eminently readable and instructive, even though there are loud moments of silence that the author covers up. There are also a number of editorial errors as the book progresses. The publisher also forgot to insert an identity imprint nor an ISBN number. These are oversights that should be corrected in a future reprint. Nonetheless, a brilliantly written memoir, recommended enthusiastically for general reading.
“Bros how you dey oh”
“Omo, body still dey inside cloth. We dey push am.”
How for do? Man no die, man no leave one place, all of us just dey.”
“God works in mysterious ways.”
“But how you come take this their cabinet reshuffle?”
“Underwhelming. An anti-climax. What is all the noise about? I can’t see it.”
“Which noise?”
“The President had announced the cabinet reshuffle a month ago. Then he travelled abroad and we were told he didn’t want to be put under pressure by anybody. Then he returns from England and France and he says, he is announcing eight key actions to boost efficiency. I don’t see what he has done that will increase any efficiency.”
“The Ministry of the Niger Delta is now a Ministry of Regional Development. That is something in case you are looking for something.”
“Just a bloated bureaucracy. The Ministry of Niger Delta caters to the interest of the oil producing states which stretch beyond the South South. It includes states like Imo, Abia and Ondo. How about the people of the North Central. They have HYPADEC but that is a development Commission focusing on hydro power. The North East Development Commission is targeted at banditry. I don’t see a convergence. What I see is confusion. I can’t see light or sense in the decision.”
“Maybe you will see sense then in the merger of the Ministry of Tourism with the Ministry of Arts, Culture and the Creative Economy.”
“No. I do not either. The Ministry of Tourism is so important. It should stand on its own. We may have had a Minister who could not rise to the occasion, but what is the point, subordinating the Ministry to another Ministry that already has its hands full.”
“Come off it. Tourism is not that strategic.”
“You say? Oh my. Oh my. Can you just listen to yourself? Are you aware that some countries depend on tourism for revenue? People visit countries like France, Spain, United States, Italy, Turkey, Morocco, the UK, Greece, Kenya, South Africa, Egypt, Japan, China, Maldives, United Arab Emirates because those countries have something to offer. The number of people who visit your country is a measure of how welcoming, attractive, risk-averse your country is. In Spain, tourism is such a major part of the local economy that the locals in cities like San Sebastian are even protesting that tourists should stay away from their city. They are complaining about over-tourism. The people of Canary Islands are also protesting. They say tourists are pushing up rentals, pricing out locals. Residents in Italy and Greece have also taken to the streets. In a year, about 90 million people visit Spain. Over a 100 million visit France. The potential in that industry is so huge, there was no point merging the Ministry with another one. The President doesn’t get it. I wonder who advised him on that course of action.”
“The statement that they issued was signed by the Presidency. No name. No date. Who is the Presidency? Too many flip flops.”
“Imagine that.”
“They have also gone back to the old days of the National Sports Commission by scrapping the Ministry of Sports.”
Now, I don’t get it. I don’t get it because I thought John Enoh was doing a good job as Minister of Sports. He came across as a very enthusiastic man. Now they have demoted him, making him the Minister of State, Industry, Trade and Investment.”
“He would be working with someone that I think knows her subject though. Dr Jumoke Oduwole has a significant and relevant experience having served previously as a Special Adviser to the President on PEBEC, ease of doing business and Investment Law. Her experience and expertise combined with Enoh’s energy and enthusiasm, if they can forge a good working relationship, may help.”
“But as for the man in the Sports Commission, Shehu Dikko, he is basically a football person. We need to grow the sports sector beyond football, and develop other sports. Does he have a broad view of the assignment? Already his colleagues in Football House are already saying the appointment is for them, not just one man. My view is that there is so much potential in sports that Nigeria can develop, beyond the obsession with football.”
“By the way, your friend Sunday Dare is back. He is now Special Adviser to the President on Public Communication and Orientation.”
“Meaning what? They say he is going to be in the Ministry of Information, not the Presidency. To do what exactly in the Ministry? The Ministry already has a Director-General of the National Orientation Agency. There is a Minister. It would have been best to name Dare Minister of State, to give him a leverage instead of hanging him afloat between the Ministry and the Presidency”.
“I want to think the President knows what he is doing. It is his prerogative to hire and fire. The discretion is his. He can delegate as he wishes.”
“Is that why he has Yorubas all over the place in all the important positions? It is his right to run a government as he deems fit. But it is also our right to talk. Nobody can stop us from talking.”
“Yes. You have been talking and talking. What difference has your talk, talk ever made? Talk. Keep talking. Are you aware that this cabinet reshuffle was based on a review of performance of the Ministers by the Central Delivery Co-ordination Unit led by Ms. Hadiza Bala-Usman? The reshuffle is based on empirical facts and findings”
“That is a lie. Have you seen the report by Hadiza Bala-Usman?”
“No.”
“So, why would you or anyone jump to the conclusion that the President followed her recommendations? I don’t think so. The President sacks five Ministers, appoints seven new ones, and redeploys 10 Ministers. He used to have 45 Ministers, now he has ended up with 48, with four from Ogun State alone!”
“His prerogative sir!”
“Stop saying it is his prerogative. Is that a new word you just learnt? We are all in this together. This is a democracy, and the last time I checked we have the right to talk. The President removed the Minister of Women Affairs. Okay, I agree, the woman was very controversial, but very loyal. She must be grateful she was made a Minister in the first place. Lola Ade-John, Jamila Bio Ibrahim, and Abdullahi Gwarzo – those ones left the same way they came quietly. But why would the President remove a man like Tahir Mamman, former Vice Chancellor, former DG of the Nigerian Law School and replace him with a medical doctor from Lagos State. I know they say Dr. Alausa is also a university person, but what is Professor Tahir Mamman’s offence”
“I can only think of two things. He was Vice Chancellor of a university belonging to the Vice-Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections. He has also been very controversial with all this talk about age eligibility for university admissions. That is one policy that will be scrapped, you will see, because it only hurts people from the South.”
“There are many other Ministers that Nigerians would have preferred to be turned adrift from the cabinet. The Ministers in critical positions should have been sent away. You are talking about controversy. Wike is the most controversial person in that cabinet. The President could have scored a goal by going for the big ones to signal a change of direction. He sacks the easy ones, and tells us about “eight key actions”. I beg.”
“Mr. Bayo Onanuga has said in one television interview that the cabinet reshuffle reflects the feelings and opinions of Nigerians.”
“That is, again, a lie. I don’t know anybody who thinks this goes far enough or that it is any important message. No. I insist. No”
“I think the President is going somewhere. For all you know, he may be testing waters. If he wakes up two months down the line and he says he wants to change the cabinet again, can anyone query him? The answer is No.”
“The Senate can reject his nominees”
“Which Senate? This 10th National Assembly will rubber stamp anything President Bola Tinubu brings to them. I can bet on that.”
“There you are!”
“But I am still convinced that this President is going somewhere that we may not know yet. He has just for example said no Minister should go about with more than three official vehicles and five security details.”
“That is like saying nothing. In 2003, the Obasanjo administration introduced a monetization policy to cover vehicle loans, domestic staff, accommodation – the whole range. I am not aware that the policy has been abrogated. Under President Jonathan, no Minister used more than three cars by the way. How? Why? But today, Ministers use sirens and fly flags in what is clearly a break-down of law and order.”
“One by one, President Tinubu will get there”
“Oh yes, by the time we have all lost flesh. The government keeps getting fatter, we are asked to make sacrifices and be patient. What stops the President from reducing his cabinet to a team of just 16 persons? I don’t even know the names of most of the Ministers because they have done nothing, said nothing, and yet they enjoy privileges. I even hear that some people are saying a new aircraft should be bought for the Vice President.”
“Poor fellow. I heard he could not go to the Commonwealth Summit because his aircraft had an incident in JFK Airport in New York. The President has bought an aircraft for himself. The Navy has bought a yacht. They should buy something for the VP too.”
“Now you are talking from both sides of the mouth. And you know I do not like hypocrisy.”
“So, what do you want me to say? The Speaker of the Borno House of Assembly says the life of the VP is at risk, because his aircraft is bad. Why should the VP travel about in a faulty aircraft?”
“He can travel commercial”
“Hen hen. Just don’t play Ngbati politics with me. Your Yoruba brother can enjoy luxury, but the Borrno man should manage. This is the problem with us in this country.””
“The problem with all Nigerians is that we tend to see everything form an ethnic or personal angle. This is why an Asari Dokubo would have the guts to say that President Tinubu has disappointed him. What does he want? Him too wan be Minister?”
“I am sorry, you are losing me. I don’t want to talk about Asari Dokubo, Bobrisky, Very Dark Man or this musician, what do they call him? Portable.”
“It pains me though that Nigeria was not at the Commonwealth Summit in Samoa. I know we sent the Minister of Environment but the VP would have been a better fit to speak on the key issues of climate change and reparations.”
“Your Minister of Environment is one of those persons that I think are sleep-walking through this administration. I have seen the Vice President in action before. He is smarter, far more intelligent than most of the Ministers. Well read. Suave. Good choice. But as for the Ministers, I beg”
“What a world we live in? Who would have thought the subject of reparation would come back on the table? I recall that this was Chief MKO Abiola’s project, he wanted the injustice of the British Empire to be addressed. Now the Caribbean countries are saying yes, this is the way to go.”
“Don’t mind the British. They have forgotten that in 1833, the same Britain paid reparations for the slave trade between the 15thand 19th Centuries, but now in 2024, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer and King Charles III are now saying we should talk about the past, but we should focus on the future. No reparations. No apologies. And Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, says there is no money to give anybody but Britain can offer reparatory justice. Justice as they would define it.”
“Can you blame them? The Labour Party in Britain is at this moment trying to prevent austerity, by seeking ways to plug a black hole of about 22 billion pounds, cut public sector spending, raise taxes including National Insurance, and reform the NHS. Not the right time to pay reparations and they won’t. Tomorrow, Rachel Reeves will unveil the Starmer administration’s budget. I miss MKO”
“MKO is our man oh. He fought for reparation. It is good to see that his idea lives. All the former British colonies in the South Pacific, Australia and CARICOM are calling for reparations. Last week in Canberra, Australia, the King was booed at the House of Parliament by Senator Linda Thorpe, an indigenous, First Nation lawmaker who screamed - You are Not my King!”
“I am sure we will hear more, particularly now that an African is the new Secretary General of the Commonwealth. Shirley Botchwey, Ghana’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration. She follows in the footsteps of Nigeria’s Chief Emeka Anyaoku.”
“Great man. Great. Unfortunately, the Tinubu administration is not grooming or appointing new diplomats. It has been more than a year since Nigeria recalled its ambassadors from all over the world. They are yet to be replaced. Why? A government that says it is interested in global investments should have ambassadors all over the world. Why not? The world is changing, re-aligning, look at BRICS. India, Russia, China. Where is Nigeria?”
“I think our President will get round to things.”
“Let him buckle up. Your man should wake up.”
“You know I am more optimistic than you. What if the President wakes up tomorrow and he decides to shake up the Departments and Agencies. These are the real drivers of government. He can shake things up, so radically you would almost apologize for all your critical words.”
“Forget apology. We are just saying the President should learn to do what is right at the right time, the right way and manner.That is the way forward.”
“I see. I see. I get it. But we will see”.
Today, October 22, is the day that has been set aside by the Supreme Court of Nigeria for the hearing and the consolidation of the suit brought before the Court in the matter between 16 states of the Federation and the Attorney General of the Federation to determine the legality or otherwise, to wit the constitutionality or otherwise also, of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Proceeds of Crimes Act. The suit originally filed by the AG Kogi State- SC/CV/178/2023 - has now been joined by 15 other states. Out of these, 13 are expressly questioning the legality of the EFCC and similar anti-graft agencies, and they are asking the Supreme Court to nullify all such commissions created outside the province of Constitutional provisions. Two states – Ogun and Cross River States are challenging the assumed powers of the NFIU to dictate how much states can withdraw or control with regard to funds appropriated by the House of Assembly. The co-plaintiffs and those who seek consolidation will appear today before a seven-member panel of the apex court led by Justice Uwani Abba-Aji. This is an interesting development, with regard to the public interest law dimension of the case, and the response from the public and stakeholders have been robust, plus the fact that the enabling framework for public institutions and the Constitution itself end up being strengthened when they are tested and interpreted in the courts.
The issues in this case can be easily summarized as follows. One, the plaintiffs argue that the EFCC Act is unconstitutional. It is a product of a United Nations Convention against corruption, and was not ratified in accordance with Section 12 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended). Section 12 of the Constitution says no treaty can have the force of law in Nigeria until it is ratified by a majority of all the Houses of Assembly in the Federation. The states argue that the EFCC Act cannot be applied to them because they were not party to it. They argue that the agencies lack the powers and the authority to investigate and prosecute matters related to the misappropriation of public funds. They cite Joseph Nwobike vs FRN as the authority to back up their claim. The Defendant, the Attorney General of the Federation argues that the concurrence of the states as stakeholders was not necessary to make the EFCC Act valid. Two, at least three states argue that the NFIU cannot investigate, requisition documents, arrest, or invite anyone with regard to how the states manage funds. Three, the states insist that they have the right to establish their own anti-graft agencies and not be answerable to any federal agency since this is a Federation.
The case has generated considerable interest from both lawyers and non-lawyers alike with everyone trying not to pre-empt the Supreme Court. But the point has been well made that this is not the first time that the legality of the EFCC, and the NFIU et al. has been raised and that there are precedents. Analysts have cited the cases of Olafisoye v. FRN (2004) where the court upheld the powers of the anti-corruption agencies to do their work, and AG Ondo State v. AG Federation (2002) where the court ruled that the National Assembly has the powers to legislate on corruption related matters with regard to Section 15(5) of the 1999 Constitution, and Section 4(2). In Olafisoye’s case, the Supreme Court ruled that the National Assembly has the exclusive powers to legislate over corruption matters which would seem to nullify the claim by the states that they would rather establish their own anti-graft agencies. The objection to the NFIU is rooted in the desperate attempts by the states to control local government funds and defeat the goals of financial autonomy for local councils. In 2019, the state governments had a running battle with the NFIU which had given a directive that no state government must touch funds meant for the local councils. The NFIU gave specific guidelines that the states should transfer funds meant for the councils accordingly and that withdrawal from the same account by the local councils must not exceed N500, 000 per day. Withdrawals must also be duly reported to the NFIU. The Governors insisted that the states-local councils joint account is a creation of the constitution and it was wrong to describe the local government system as a third tier of government. The Nigerian Governors Forum sued the FG and NFIU. In 2022, Justice Inyang Ekwo of the Federal High Court, Abuja ruled in favour of the defendants. Again in 2024, the Supreme Court further affirmed the financial autonomy of the country’s 774 local governments. It is therefore not surprising that the states and the Governors who have turned the local councils into mere appendages are now also approaching the Supreme Court. In both major issues, the plaintiffs seem to have found a loophole in the enabling acts of the anti-graft agencies which they hope to put through the furnace of judicial test.
Two legal luminaries, both Senior Advocates of Nigeria – Dr. Olisa Agbakoba and Mr. Femi Falana have offered their perspectives on the subject. Agbakoba, in separate letters titled “Re: Urgent Legislative Attention on Constitutional Reforms Relating to Law Enforcement Agencies and Anti-Corruption Efforts” written to the Senate and the House of Representatives, without holding brief for the state governments, submitted that the EFCC was “unconstitutionally established” and hence, “an unlawful organization”. He said the National Assembly acted ultra vires, simply exceeded its authority under Section 4 of the Constitution, and that is why the states are challenging the validity of the EFCC. Agbakoba SAN made specific demands: (a) that the enabling framework setting up the EFCC has to be reviewed because the EFCC appears to be working at cross-purposes with the Nigeria Police Force; (b) that the National Assembly should organize a public hearing to consider constitutional issues to discuss needed reforms in line with section 13 of the Constitution; (c) that the National Assembly should reform the EFCC by clearly defining its mandate to prevent future abuses. When he appeared on Arise News flagship programme, The Morning Show, Agbakoba went a step further, by reminding everyone that the EFCC legislation was passed in two days in 2003- the fastest legislation ever passed in Nigeria (!), and many mistakes were made. He wants the mistakes in the EFCC Act reviewed. But the high point of the interview was when Dr. Agbakoba, saying the EFCC has not been effective, railed: “These guys are terrorists; in my view they terrorize us; they use their might in their red coats to terrorize us. Once you say EFCC, you are scared. That is not what a law enforcement agency should be. They ought to be better.”
Femi Falana SAN, disagrees with some of the points raised by his brother Silk. He has also written his own separate letters to the Senate and the House of Representatives to counter Agbakoba’s submissions. He said that contrary to Agbakoba’s claim, the Supreme Court has consistently supported the ICPC and the EFCC (Nyame vs. FRN; AG Ondo vs. AG Federation); and that no illegality can be established with regard to claims about violations of the principles of federalism (Olafisoye vs FRN). Falana further contends that it is the duty of the state to “abolish all corrupt practices and abuse of power” and that the EFCC is a common agency with constitutional authority. He deplores the attempt by the state governments to frustrate the prosecution of public officers. Falana’s main conclusion is that the National Assembly should entrench the legality of the EFCC and ICPC in the Constitution as part of the ongoing Constitution amendment process – a point to which Agbakoba says he concurs.
Having thus raised the facts of the case, the issues involved, rules as established in precedents, and expert opinions of senior counsel, it remains for us to await the ruling of the Supreme Court exercising its original and inherent jurisdictions in what is clearly a matter of public policy. Despite the precedents that have been quoted, it is up to the Justices of the apex court to either affirm or reverse themselves. Nonetheless, certain conclusions can be reached.
It must be remembered that in 2003, Nigeria was heavily in debt to the tune of about US$35. 9 billion. The Obasanjo administration embarked on the historic and important mission of getting debt relief for the country. The country was spending more on interest payments for its debt, with debt to GDP ratio at about 58%. Nigeria needed help and President Obasanjo was committed to getting help to rescue the country. In October 2000, the Obasanjo administration established the Debt Management Office (DMO). The country’s efforts to secure debt relief soon met a brickwall, when the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey-listed Nigeria along with 22 other countries, that is countries that could not combat financial crimes like corruption and money laundering as well as terrorism financing. To make progress the Nigerian government had to set up anti-corruption agencies - the EFCC and the ICPC. Both bodies were products of expediency, but the outcomes were pleasant. In October 2005, Nigeria and the Paris Club reached a final agreement of $18 billon debt relief and reduction of Nigeria’s debt stock by $30 billion. About 18 years later, it is most unfortunate that Nigeria’s external debt has since crossed the $41 billion mark! The country is back in the debt trap. In the intervening years, the EFCC traced about N776 billion fraud cases, stolen only by public officials. In 2024 alone, this year, the EFCC has secured 3, 175 convictions and recovered N156 billion.
So, is this a case of corruption fighting back? Dele Oyewale, EFCC spokesperson claims that there is a push-back against the EFCC because it has been so effective. We must note the concern that has been expressed however that the EFCC has been too histrionic in its efforts and selective in its operations creating the impression that it can be used as a tool of political witch-hunt by whoever is in power at the centre. Some past Governors are shielded from prosecution while some others are specially targeted. What the EFCC requires is to be seen to be fair to all parties concerned and be above board. Fairness is at the heart of any justice administration process. This is what Agbakoba SAN alludes to when he dismisses the EFCC as a terror organization. The National Assembly has been accused of not following due process in establishing the EFCC, but even if that were established, would that render all acts by the EFCC and other anti-graft agencies a nullity? Under the doctrine of covering the field, the validity of the exercise of the National Assembly’s powers under Section 4 of the 1999 Constitution can be upheld. The state has a responsibility to check corruption, and over the years, we have seen the ingenuity of Nigerians in both public and private places to take what is not theirs. The closer many Nigerians get to the proverbial national cake, the more covetous they become. Agbakoba says “once you say EFCC, you are scared”. Well, the situation is so bad, somebody needs to scare Nigerians. Even with the best efforts of the various anti-graft agencies, Nigeria has consistently ranked poorly on the Global Transparency Index. The country grapples with a worsening reputational damage.
We should therefore not throw the baby away with the bath water. Nigeria needs the anti-graft agencies now more than the country did in 2003. Indeed, in February 2023, the FATF added Nigeria again to the list of countries that have been grey-listed. The country is required to implement an action plan comprising 19 items before May 2025 to avoid the certain prospect of moving from “the Grey List” to the “Black List.” This certainly is not the best of times for Nigeria to start talking about nullifying its anti-graft agencies. Perhaps, the better option lies in the middle ground between Agbakoba and Falana.
Agbakoba is right when he says the EFCC is in urgent need of reform. The agency must be seen to be acting always within the ambits of the law. In recent times, EFCC officials showed too much overzealousness, exposing the institution to public ridicule and the derision of the persons they had declared wanted. For example, the former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello who had been declared wanted by the EFCC showed up at the EFCC headquarters only to be told by the people who had declared him wanted locally and internationally to go back home. Then, in the evening of the same day, they went hunting for him, shooting in the air, and terrorizing the public. Just in case there are too many people in the EFCC who are addicts of Hollywood and Nollywood films, they should be re-directed to where they can make the best use of their talents. Such persons tend to turn EFCC operations into movie-like engagements. Nollywood is a fast-growing industry that can accommodate more talents. The EFCC should stay firmly on the path of professionalism.
Both Falana and Agbakoba agree that there is a need to “constitutionalize” the EFCC. This is important. Whatever grey areas may exist in the enabling acts of the anti-graft agencies can be corrected through amendments to constitutional provisions and the acts. The EFCC, ICPC, NFIU should see the latest development not as evidence that they are working so that is why they are being resisted. This should be an opportunity for soul-searching and reflection, and a re-dedication to core organizational goals and objectives. Nigerians are calling for the abolition of the agencies because of shortcomings that they have observed. EFCC officials are known, for example, for engaging in all kinds of tactics. At a point, the EFCC Chairman himself had to complain that there are corrupt elements in the EFCC. Going forward, EFCC officials must be made to declare their assets. People fighting corruption must not be seen to be living above their means. Many Nigerians wonder why anti-corruption agents become so rich. This was how the police lost the trust of the public. EFCC officials must focus on their core task of fighting financial and economic crimes. They should not allow themselves to be used as debt recovery agents looking for commissions. They must stop media trial. They must stop supporting politicians as they were accused of doing in the last general elections. There is a Manual on operational guidelines for the EFCC prepared by the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice. They must abide by those guidelines, and resist the temptation to become an organization where anything goes. The EFCC needs its own ombudsman to make it more professional, ethical and law-abiding.
“Bros, na wah for you oh. How person go dey call you, you no go pick call?”
“A beg. My head no straight these days.”
“Are you okay? You sick?”
“I sick. I sick well, well, well.”
What is the matter? And your wife could not call family? These women! What is going on?”
“I sick oh. Because my salary can no longer take me home. Nobody is increasing salaries. They don’t even pay as at when due anymore. When I buy fuel, the thing evaporates in 24 hours. My heart is perpetually pumping up and down. My body aches. And Madam is putting me under pressure that we have not yet paid the children’s school fees. I am sick. I can feel it in my bones. Have you not noticed that the fuel we buy these days simply evaporates?
“My brother. Bros. Na wah.”
“Tell me where are we going in this country?”
“President Tinubu and his wife are certain that we are going somewhere that is good. Mrs. Tinubu made the point the other day that we, Nigerians are not seeing what the Lord is doing and that in two years, we will all see the truth.”
“Like Saul who became Paul on the road to Damascus. I beg. Let nobody deceive me. Na hungry I hungry, I am not blind oh. I can see what is going on in Nigeria. What is the Lord doing in Nigeria that Mrs. Tinubu is talking about? She goes to Ife, visits her alma mater, Obafemi Awolowo University and donates one billion Naira. What does she do for a living? Where did she get the money from? And then she says we, Nigerians must learn to work hard. Oh. Oh. These people. So, I don’t have one billion Naira because I am lazy? And then on top of it all, the Ooni of Ife erects a fake gold statue in her honour. Rochas Okorocha Iberiberism in Ife! And I am here, looking for quality fuel. This country is not okay, I swear.”
“E lo fokan bale. I believe that everything will be okay. President Tinubu is working on it. He is on a working vacation. From England to France. As a Christian, I believe that you will soon see what the Lord is doing.”
“I can see what is going on. We must stop blackmailing God in this matter. I can see that the leaders of Nigeria do not care enough about us. They are going about in luxury jets, SUVs, yachts, and Nigerians are told to work harder and be patient. It is the slave master’s logic. And the President says he is on a working vacation. Okay, what working vacation? It is either you are on vacation which is legitimate, perfectly legitimate. But you are working and you are on vacation? What an oxymoron! And Mrs. Tinubu gets a statue in Ile Ife? As what?” Tell me.”
“As our wife. First Lady. Mother of the Nation. Yoruba wife.”
“I have told you. We are not okay in this country.”
“But I disagree with you that the President cannot go on a working vacation? Mr. Bayo Onanuga has made it clear that the President can run this country from anywhere on the planet. If he so wishes he can leave France and go to Australia and stay there till the end of the year.”
“No. No. No. I disagree. Number One. Why must he always go to Britain and France? Number Two. It is not true that he can stay away from Nigeria for as long as he likes. Sections 145 and 146 of the 1999 Constitution are very clear. If he is going to be away due to vacation or incapacitation, he is required by the Constitution to hand over to his Deputy. Did he hand over to the Vice President? Did he inform the National Assembly? He just carried his bags and said he was going on a working vacation? President Tinubu is undermining the Nigerian Constitution.”
“It is his prerogative. He is President. He can delegate as he wishes. The Nigerian President is a monarch. That is the truth.”
“They say he is on a working vacation. I want to know what work he has done. He had to leave Britain just when that country was hosting business leaders from every part of the world to discuss the future of investment and Britain’s economic growth. It would have been a great networking opportunity for Nigeria. But our President left.”
“Again. You miss the point. The International Investment Summit in Central London was strictly by invitation. Elon Musk who wanted to be at the Summit, so desperately, was not invited. Other leaders in the world were not invited. The Summit is not a gathering of the tribes and former colonies.”
“Okay I get the point. Nigeria was not considered important enough. So what work did President Tinubu do or that you know that he did during this working vacation? Nigerians have the right to know”
“No. You cannot order the President around. He is not your prisoner. He is a monarch. Get that straight. Why do Nigerians think that because this is a democracy, they can order the President and his wife around anyhow? What is wrong with us? In fact, we should count ourselves lucky. The people of Cameroon have just been told that it is a breach of national security to talk about the whereabouts of President Paul Biya. Biya was last seen in September when he appeared on television at a function in Beijing. He is 91 years old. He has been ruling Cameroon for more than 41 years, the second longest ruling monarch after Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea. Tinubu is just two years on the throne, you are looking for him. Come on man, he is still better than Paul Biya. I dare say he is even better than President Buhari who spent a total of more than a year outside the country.”
“And is that good for Nigeria? I ask. Answer. Is that how anybody should run a serious country?”
“Don’t worry yourself, Nigeria will survive. We will always survive. President Tinubu told us, have you forgotten? E lo fokan bale.”
“I have my doubts. I am anxious. Which fokan bale is that? Very soon men will lose their wives because they will no longer be men at home. Wives will give up their husbands and homes will be ruined.”
“Be patient bro. Two years.”
“Two years, with this hardship?”
“Something will come up. Naija no dey carry last. Our God will never forsake us.”
“Will you stop that crap? Let the Pastors say that on Sunday to their congregations. All these Pastors who ride limousines and private jets and they preach hope to their poorly-fed church members.”
“Touch not my anointed. Thou shall not speak ill of the people of God.”.
“Very soon, I will stop going to Church. No more paying of tithes. I will use the money to buy fuel and food. The Pastors are still telling people Nigeria go better because people still go to their churches. When people stop showing up, then they will know that something has gone wrong with Nigeria.”
“People will always go to church. The Pastors preach hope. Hope keeps us alive.”
“Go and mark my words. Nigeria is heading to a crossroads where hope will no longer show the way, hope without purpose and direction means nothing. The road called hope must be paved with clear targets. Please where are we?”
“As we speak, I am on my lunch break at work, munching on something, thinking aloud with you”
“I am angry”
“I believe. I hope that tomorrow is another day. Nigeria always survives. We can’t go on like this, yes. Something may change the course of our history. Look at Guyana, a country of 800, 000 people. As of 2009, that country was famous for eco-tourism and its rain forests. In 2015, Exxon Mobil found oil in large quantities in its coastal waters. Today, Guyana, a former British colony way back in 1796, is now an oil rich country, so rich the Prime Minister is promising people free money and free opportunities, the country’s colonial architecture is giving way to glass sealed buildings. It is a new day in Guyana. The Lord that did it for them in that country can do it also for us in Nigeria”
“Bad example. Bad comparison. Nigeria already travelled through that road before. We found oil and the country scattered. What has oil brought us? It has brought to a point where we cannot even refine our fuel. Something that flows in some people’s father’s backyards. It has brought us to a point where a man from a state where there is no crude oil is now the one refining fuel for Nigeria making all the people who boast about our oil, na my papa get am, look truly stupid.”
“That is life. You can have something, talk about it and not know what to do with it. God has a hand in it. He will then bring somebody who can do it.”
“You always talk back and forth, here and there. I do not know what your people are doing.”
“Which my people? I don’t know them oh. I am just trying to be a good person?”
“You are a PDP man then?”
“Which PDP? Those ones that will fight from now till 2028. They will wake up after the 2027 elections have been won and lost”
“Are you cursing the PDP? The main opposition party in the country?”
“Let me quote Daniel Bwala jare. Kokoro ti n je efo, inu efo lo wa? The maggot that is spoiling the vegetable is inside the vegetable. Do you get it?”
“I get it. No hope for the APC either. Things are so bad even Libya is now insulting Nigeria, in football.”
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Many persons that I know and that are dear to me have been celebrating their birthdays in the last week and one of them, Pastor Kayode Owolabi turns 60 on October 17. On October 10, Professor Is-haq Oloyede turned 70. He is the current Registrar and Chief Executive of the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB), a Commander of the Order of the Niger (CON) and a Fellow of the Nigeria Academy of Letters. He is also the Secretary General of the Nigerian Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs, the 8th and former Vice Chancellor of the University of Ilorin, former Chairman of the Association of Vice Chancellors of Nigerian Universities and Committee of Vice Chancellors, and former President of the Association of African Universities.
Oloyede is one of such Diamonds who have spent a lifetime excelling in whatever they do, from his emergence as a National Merit Scholar (a distinction I proudly share with him) to graduating with a First Class Honour (we are in that boat together too), to becoming a Professor in 1995 (I left university teaching to become a talking head in the media). He later became the Vice Chancellor of his alma mater in 2007. Oloyede’s tenure as Vice Chancellor in Ilorin was regarded as the brightest moments in that University’s history. He is a focused, committed scholar and a man who pays great attention to details. He has proven his measure as Registrar of JAMB, a position to which he was appointed by President Muhammadu Buhari in 2016. In eight years, Oloyede has turned JAMB around and made it a success story. JAMB used to be an unprofitable government agency, a cesspool of corruption, but today, JAMB makes profit for the Nigerian Government and remains one of the success stories of Nigeria. Under Oloyede’s watch, the institution has been sanitized.
Oloyede is a perfect example of a good Muslim, a good citizen, a good scholar and a platinum-citizen representing Nigeria well. He calls me “the Deputy Governor” but that is a story for another day. I congratulate him on the occasion of his 70th birthday. President Tinubu describes him as “an exceptional scholar, and an uncommon scholar who has shown rare commitment to financial integrity and accountability in public service”. Governor Dapo Abiodun of Ogun State where Oloyede hails from, says he “remains a leading light among many of his contemporaries and distinctly stands out for his integrity and thorough approach.” He deserves the accolades.
DIG Taiwo Lakanu (rtd) marked his 65th birthday over the weekend, Saturday, October 12. This is a good man who supported me in the days of struggle. He is a policeman. I am a journalist. But he is one good example of how a policeman can be your friend and I have no doubts that many who know Lakanu would attest to this fact. He is professional, firm, knowledgeable and dependable. With degrees in History and Law, (BA., LL B, B. L, LLM.) he belongs to the elite class of the Nigerian Police, one of those in that profession who could sustain an argument and an intelligent conversation. He rose, not surprisingly to the rank of a Deputy Inspector General of Police. He joined the police in 1986, and served as Commissioner in Imo and Ekiti. He was CP, Lagos Airport Command, AIG, Zone 7, Abuja. He was also Police Secretary. The only reward for hardwork and distinction is more work. DIG Lakanu has since been recalled for more work by an appreciative government. He served on the Lagos State #EndSARS panel. He is now back in Abuja as a member of the Police Service Commission. He is the Akogun of Lagos. Congratulations, Akogun of the Universe! Live long.
And finally, in two days, one of the persons closest to my heart in this world, Pastor Kayode Owolabi turns 60 on October 17. We grew up together. We shared dreams together. Our paths may be different. We are brothers, going back to the roots. Work demands would not permit me to travel to England, where he lives to celebrate his special occasion with him, but he is a man who deserves to be celebrated and he has earned all the successes that he has recorded. Kay, as I used to call him, he is now Pastor Kay, is one intense personality, he tells you he wants to achieve a goal, he will latch on to it and refuse to waiver until he reaches that goal. He is a very organized, and a deliberate man to the last detail. He used to tell me I am not making enough use of my talents. I think he pushes me too hard. But he means well. He has a generous and kind heart. Growing up together, his family was my family and mine was his too. Armed with a Bachelor’s degree in History, he later obtained a Master’s in Law and Diplomacy (MILD). He worked as a banker for years. Then he found God or perhaps God called him to service as a man of His word. He is today the general overseer, Senior Pastor of the Everlasting Arms Ministries, shepherd and author, with headquarters in London. He is constantly travelling all over the world winning souls for Christ. He found his calling. But this is no surprise. His father, E. V. O. Owolabi was also a priest of the Anglican Church. Happy Birthday, Pastor Oluwakayode Babatunde Adeleke Owolabi. God bless you. Your brother salutes you.
There is a fire and ballot revolution in Rivers state and the main victim that I can see for now in the burning fire is Nyesom Wike, former Governor of Rivers State, incumbent Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) who is on record has having boasted garrulously that if anybody, a politician from any other part of the country thinks that he or she can support Governor Sim Fubara, his successor, to take the political structure away from him, he, Wike would put fire in that person’s state. Wike is also on record as having said that there is no politician in the country today that is bigger than him. Wike was so strong a week ago that when he was hosted by a group of Ijaws, supposedly Fubara’s kinsmen, he even repeated his claim that he was effectively in charge of Rivers State. At that occasion, Seyi Makinde, Governor of Oyo State begged Wike not to bring fire to his own state. Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum publicly confessed that Wike is indeed the Godfather of Niger Delta politics. Wike may never have heard of Percy Shelley’s Ozymandias. But what has happened in our reckoning on October 5, with the conduct of the local Government elections in Rivers State is better described as Wike’s Ozymandias moment. It was a moment when Sim Fubara who was brought to power, by Wike as Wike and his allies claim, and who has suffered for so long in their hands decided that enough was enough and that Wike’s dictatorial hold over Rivers State must end. On Saturday, October 5, Fubara the godson, decided that it was time he became the father of the father, and produced his own sons. It was the moment he decided that his own Godfather must be beheaded, so that the son could become the man. He proved the point that Godfathers do not live forever, particularly in Nigerian politics, and that the answer to Godfatherism is political patricide, given the circumstances.
It will be recalled that Minister Nyesom Wike has never hidden the fact that he made Sim Fubara Governor of Rivers State on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Fubara was indeed Wike’s Chief Accountant (2020 – 2022). Wike decided that Fubara would be his preferred successor. So, he bought the form for his nomination. He told the people of Rivers State that Fubara would be their next Governor. He bankrolled the campaign so he claims. He has told us that he did everything possible to make Fubara the Governor. And that came to pass. And that was where the problem began. It was not enough that Wike had been rewarded with a Ministerial appointment by President Bola Tinubu of the rival, now ruling party, the All -Progressives Congress (APC) in compensation for Wike’s treachery against his own party, the PDP, we were faced with a curious situation whereby Wike decided that he would remain in control of governance in Rivers State. He was shameless in defending the amphibian nature of his politics, a man who betrayed his party at the national level insisting that he would also hold on to how politics is played in his home state. His critics alleged that he chose all the political appointees in Fubara’s administration with the exception of maybe one or two. Members of the House of Assembly were majorly Wike’s men. Key commissioners in the administration treated the Governor shabbily because they reported directly to the Godfather in Abuja. Fubara’s wife was not even allowed to attend any event without Wike’s approval. Fubara himself was under close watch. He was a captive in the position that he occupied, a prisoner of the Godfather’s goodwill. But there is a limit to which some people can be pushed to the wall. In May 2024, a frustrated, humiliated Governor Fubara felt compelled to speak up. He said “The Jungle Has Matured.”
What he meant then was that he was tired of the former Governor, wearing the toga of the Godfather riding roughshod over him, breathing down his neck. He threatened to set up a panel of inquiry to investigate the past administration. He sacked or frustrated out of his government Wike’s acolytes who spied on him and treated him as if he did not matter. He faced the House of Assembly members head-long and began to stare them down. His larynx suddenly opened up and he began to talk. He transformed from the timid Godson who begged for peace to the Godson who had developed fangs. He had the support of the elders and youths of the community who felt Wike should allow Fubara to have his turn as Governor. He wanted to suspend local government chairmen. He was told he could not do it. The people of Rivers had now become divided, pro-Wike, pro-Fubara, both parties threatening fire and brimstone. The majority stood by Fubara. In December 2023, Fubara sacked local government chairmen who served under Wike. He also removed the Chairman of the Supreme Council of Traditional Rulers, another Wike ally. He threatened to demolish both the Rivers State House of Assembly and the state legislative quarters.
On October 5, 2024 the jungle had finally matured. It was the day when local council elections were held in 23 local councils of Rivers State. Before the election, Wike’s loyalists in the PDP and the APC staged a protest on the streets. The PDP in Rivers State, the sitting Governor’s own party even went ahead to boycott the elections. Boycott has never been a potent political weapon. It may raise questions of legitimacy after the fact but the election would have been won and lost. There were court cases, with the Rivers State High Court and the Federal High Court giving conflicting judgments. In the end, Governor Fubara insisted that the elections would proceed as scheduled on the strength of a July 11, 2024 Supreme Court ruling that only democratically elected persons could be Chairpersons of Local Councils in Nigeria, the Rivers High Court ruling, Section 197 of the 1999 Constitution which creates State Independent Electoral Commissions and Section 59 of the Rivers State Electoral Commission Law No. 2 of 2018. Pro-Wike objectors to the election relied on a Federal High Court ruling which ordered that even the Police must not provide security during the elections. There were skirmishes about the police carting away election materials and the Governor having to visit the headquarters of the RSIEC, as the state electoral body is known, to challenge the police. Nonetheless, the Governor insisted that the elections will take place.
And so it was, that on Saturday October 5, in 23 local governments, 6, 866 polling units in 319 wards in Rivers State, local government elections were conducted, superintended by Justice Adolphus Enebeli (rtd), and his staff at RSIEC, with 18 political parties out of 19, participating. The people of Rivers State turned out in large numbers. They defied the rain. And they voted in a process witnessed by journalists, observers, members of the Nigerian Bar Association and party agents. In the end, Justice Enebeli (rtd) declared the Action Peoples Party (APP), Fubara’s proxy party, since his own PDP boycotted the elections having been hijacked by Wike, as winner in 22 LGAs and 314 councillorship positions. Etche Local Government where results had been suspended was finally declared for the Action Alliance. The remaining councillorship seats were won by the APC (in Ward 3), the Social Democratic Party, the Boot Party and the Young People's Party (YPP). Without much ado, the newly elected Chairmen were quickly sworn in and given their certificates of return on Sunday, October 6 at a Government House ceremony where Governor Fubara proclaimed that desperate situations require desperate measures.
Truly, the situation in Rivers last Saturday was a desperate one. For me, the following are the quick takeaways. One, Fubara, the godson had become the father. This is in line with an aspect of the wisdom of Silenus which says that ultimately the son becomes the father in the process of Being-ness. Charles Kettering once said that “Every father should remember one day his son will follow his example, not his advice.” Whatever advice Wike may have given Fubara, what we witnessed on Saturday in Rivers state was a case of Fubara following Wike’s example. In 2016, one of the first things Wike did upon the assumption of office as Governor was to sack some of the Local Government Caretaker Committee Chairmen appointed by Governor Rotimi Amaechi, his predecessor. Wike would soon elect his own Local council Chairmen. And he seized control of the political structure in Rivers State. He beheaded his own Godfather. The same destiny has now caught up with him. Nemesis. Hubris. What a man sows he reaps. Karma. What goes around comes around. Fubara is now the new Godfather in Rivers politics and he sounded so as he admonished the new local council Chairmen on Sunday to serve the people and not their stomachs.
Two, Wike had promised to put fire in other people’s states should they interfere in the politics of Rivers State. The fire that he talked about has been lit in his own very backyard. Should he be allowed to put fire in Rivers State? The biggest fear in Rivers today is the fear of violence and the breakdown of law and order. On election day, there was violence in Ogunabali area of Port Harcourt where voters were attacked and election materials were destroyed. In Ward 19, Elekahia, policemen were said to have invaded the polling unit and obstructed the voting process. On Monday, that is yesterday, after the police announced that they had unsealed the local council secretariats, hoodlums attacked the local councils in Ikwerre, Emohua, Ahoada East and Eleme and set them on fire. Elsewhere, anti-Fubara groups tried to prevent the local government chairmen from taking office. Each one of those locations must be treated as crime scenes. The police may have unsealed the secretariats but their role in the Rivers crisis is deplorable. The Nigeria Police Force has a constitutional role under Sections 214 – 216 of the 1999 Constitution, and Section 4 of the Police Act to protect lives and property. It is one of those strange things in Nigeria’s democratic process that a court of law would give an order that the Police must not provide security in any part of Nigeria and the police hierarchy would claim it is bound by that order, rather than challenge it immediately. The elections in Rivers took place without the police providing security. It is unfortunate that the Nigeria Police unwittingly exposed its own creeping irrelevance in election matters. The people of Rivers did not need 35, 000 policemen deployed in the Edo Gubernatorial elections last month. When the people are determined, they will safeguard the peace and make their own choices. President Tinubu after the fact, and fire that has erupted in Rivers State has now ordered the police to provide security in that state. Must the President wait for the blow-out before intervening?
Three, the President must go a step further. He must call the main gladiators in Rivers state to order. He must put a stop to the money business whereby Wike and his allies come to see him in the morning, and Fubara sneaks in later in the day, both parties carrying tales about who is right and who is wrong. Before the burning of local council headquarters began in Rivers, President Goodluck Jonathan had warned that the desperate situation in Rivers should be handled with caution. He was right. It was precisely an election and the craziness of the political actors that set the Western Region on fire in 1965. Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa thought it was a problem of the Yoruba people, so Awolowo should worry about it. The Western Region soon became the “Wild Wild West”, and the fires that time consumed not just the Western region but the entire country and Nigeria’s democracy at its infancy. Tinubu says he is on a working vacation abroad, even when such an oxymoron as a working vacation is most strange. We need him to call Fubara and make it clear that he needs to put Rivers in order, otherwise he risks the possibility of a state of emergency being declared in that state. As for Wike, he must be told eyeball to eyeball that if there is no peace in Rivers, he will lose his Ministerial position in the proposed cabinet reshuffle. Fubara and his allies have made it clear that Wike is not so much of a political asset to Tinubu after all. He is not bound to be the man that will deliver Rivers state to Tinubu in 2027. The people of Rivers State have shown that they are done with him. It remains for Wike to learn from Sir Peter Odili, and Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, former Rivers Governors who have chosen peace by staying in a position of respect and dignity.
Four, the judiciary showed up wrongly in the Rivers election. Can you imagine a court of law forbidding the security agencies from carrying out their constitutional duties to provide security? This is against the spirit and letter of the Constitution. Can you imagine courts of equal and co-ordinate jurisdiction issuing conflicting orders, allowing political actors to shop for forum from Port Harcourt to Abuja? There is a new sheriff in the judiciary who has promised to put an end to such conduct. We urge Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, CJN, to begin with the example of Rivers State. The various gladiators have announced that the courts will be their next battle ground. His Lordship must call the judex to order and put a stop to the continued denigration of the role of the judiciary in Nigeria’s electoral processes.
Five, something has to be done about the local council election process, which in virtually every state simply ends up producing the ruling party in the state or the proxy party of the Governor as the victor. The Governors have seized control of the local government process. In the last week of September in Anambra State, the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) was declared winner by the ANSIEC in the state’s 21 local government councils and 326 wards. In Rivers, the Governor’s proxy party, the APP took 22 out of 23 local councils and 314 wards out of 319. They “donated” just one local council to another party – the Action Alliance. We witnessed the same scenario in Akwa Ibom state over the weekend where the ruling PDP took 30 councils out of 31. One council, Essien Udim was “donated” to the APC. Senator Godswill Akpabio comes from that local government! The Governor had to spare Essien Udim in recognition of Akpabio’s political relevance. Local council elections were also held in Benue on Saturday, October 5. The Governor of Benue state is a Catholic priest in politics, Fr. Hyacinth Alia. His party followed the familiar pattern winning all 23 Chairmanship positions and all 276 councillorship seats. We need to rethink, review and reconsider our local council/state election system that serves only the interest of the incumbent Governor.
Today in Lagos, the Oyo family - husband, children, grandchildren, in laws and the extended families from Ekitiland, Urhoboland and elsewhere as well as friends and former colleagues would be holding a remembrance and thanksgiving service in honour of Mrs. Felicia Oluremi Oyo, at the Catholic Church of Presentation, Ikeja GRA, Lagos. Ten years ago, Mrs Oyo left this earthly prison house and transited to the great beyond, to tranquil Heaven at the relatively young age of 61. Thomas Campbell says, and he is right that “to live in the hearts of those we love is not to die”. Mrs. Oyo lives on, her memory endures, and her example stands out in terms of her great accomplishments. She was a journalist of the first rank. She did not want to be identified as a female journalist but as a pressman, and indeed a pressman she was, out there in the forefront of action, inspiring younger journalists both male and female in the process. In one of those ironies of life that no one can explain she was born in the month of October. She died also in the same month, less than two weeks to her 62nd birthday as a result of cancer. But hers was a life of impact, love and influence. She studied Mass Communication at the University of Lagos and obtained a Master’s degree in International Relations from the University of Kent. Journalism was her career and in this she excelled. She started as a reporter with the Nigerian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) in 1973 – the story out there is that she met her husband, Mr. Vincent Oyo while working in radio, and the two Oyos would in later life carve a niche for themselves in both journalism and marketing communications. Mrs. Oyo left the NBC to join the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in 1981, and rose to become the Principal Editor of NAN. She later joined the Inter Press Service (IPS) and again rose to become the Nigerian Bureau Chief and later, West African Bureau Chief.
It was around this time that our paths crossed. Auntie as we fondly called her had become very active in the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE). Under Mr. Biodun Oduwole, NGE President, 1992 – 1994, Mrs. Oyo was a member of the standing committee but she was very influential, known by younger journalists as “Mama awon Boys” because of her generosity. Together, the Oduwole team presided over one of the golden moments of the Guild. Mr. Oduwole was then Managing Editor at the Nigerian Tribune in Ibadan, which was practically in the hands of both Mr Oduwole and Mr. Folu Olamiti as Editor Daily. Even before the emergence of Mr. Oduwole as President, he had been friends with some of us who were members of the OSU Collective, and three of us got close to him. In those days, in the early 90s, members of the OSU Collective were prolific on the pages of newspapers, generating debates and contributing to public affairs issues of the day. Three of us: Wale Olaitan, Sina Kawonise and I were close to Mr. Oduwole who took it upon himself to encourage these brilliant young lecturers from Ogun State University as it then was. I was in the Department of English, Kawonise in Sociology and Olaitan in Political Science. Like all young men, we thought we could change the world with our pens and lyrical prose. It was through Egbon as we called Mr. Oduwole that we got to know Mrs Oyo, and she just took to us as her aburos.
By 1994, I had left Ogun State University to join the Guardian Newspapers as a member of the Editorial Board. I recall that in September that year, I had to travel to Egypt to attend the International Conference on Population and Development (5 -13 September 1994) under the auspices of the National Council on Population and Environmental Activities, an NGO led by Prince Julius Adelusi-Adeluyi. I was then one of the resource persons to the NCPEA, under the guidance of Prince Adelusi-Adeluyi who provided opportunities for us to know more about developing trends in the world. When we arrived in Egypt and I went to the press centre, there was Mrs. Remi Oyo, manning the IPS desk. I saw her at work, writing stories, casting headlines, conducting interviews. She enjoyed what she did: to tell stories. When we were in Cairo, I casually mentioned to Auntie that I was planning to get married. She promptly asked me what I would need. I told her I brought some money to buy wedding rings. One late afternoon, she left her desk and she took me somewhere inside Cairo where she said we would get original gold. When we finished buying the gold rings, she asked me to follow her again to another store. She then asked me to look for any shoe that I felt comfortable with. She paid for the pair of shoes and said that is the shoe I want you to wear on your wedding day: from me to you! I would later visit Aunty at her office at the National Theatre where she had become the head of IPS. In those days, the National Theatre (now Wole Soyinka Centre for Culture and the Arts) was the rendezvous for artists. We went there to watch films, stage plays or simply to congregate at a place called Abe Igi, to socialize and enjoy an assortment of delicacies. Auntie’s office was just down the road from Abe Igi and I used to go there. It was not difficult to see that although she was head of IPS, she had great rapport with the people in NAN who shared the same premises. She moved from NAN to IPS, but she had friends on both sides. She was a doyenne of wire service journalism.
In 1998, Mrs. Oyo showed interest in the Presidency of the Nigerian Guild of Editors. Garba Shehu who was Oduwole’s Deputy President had just completed his term (1994 -1997) and the position was due to return to the South. We the boys were like “Auntie Must Win!”. IN short, all the boys championed her campaign. She eventually emerged as the President and ended up serving for five years (1998 – 2003). She lifted the profile of the office and was very good at getting support for the media from authority figures. She was for record purposes the first woman to serve as President of the Nigerian Guild of Editors since 1961, when Alhaji Lateef Jakande was the pioneer President of the Guild. Mrs. Oyo performed so excellently, it can be said of her legacy that she inspired other women within the profession to take a keen interest in the affairs of both the NGE and the Nigerian Union of Journalists (NUJ). In the West, East and the North, women began to occupy key positions in the media unions. In Lagos, Mrs. Funke Fadugba as Chairman of the Lagos NUJ was such a formidable force. She singlehandedly set up two estates for journalists and turned many into landlords. Lagos Journalists would be forever grateful to Funke Fadugba as the brain behind Journalists Estate in Arepo and PEN Estate along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. Unfortunately, when Funke Fadugba wanted to become President of the NUJ, she was betrayed by her own colleagues from the Lagos Chapter. In 2016, following in Mrs. Oyo’s footsteps, Funke Egbemode emerged as the President of the NGE and spent three remarkable years in the saddle as the second female President.
Mrs Oyo’s distinction did not go unnoticed. In 2003, she was appointed Senior Special Assistant (Media and Publicity) by President Olusegun Obasanjo. Again, she served meritoriously in that position, earning her the national honour of Officer of the Order of Niger (OON) in 2006. When President Yar’Adua assumed office in 2007, Mrs. Oyo was shortly after named the Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria. It was a kind of homecoming for her, returning to her former base, and reuniting with old colleagues. Her tenure as MD, NAN was not without a measure of controversy. But what I recall vividly was her advice to me when President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan appointed me as his Spokesperson/ Special Adviser – Media and Publicity in 2011. She was one of the first persons to reach out to me.
“Reuben, my advice to you will be basically three things. Number one, the person you need most on this job is the President, the man who gave you the job. If you have him on your side, you are good. You will survive. This is a very tough job. The politics is heavy.”
She then went on to tell me about how many people would be interested in the office because of the glamour of being the spokesperson for the President. She mentioned names of persons who would go behind her to President Obasanjo just to malign her. But at every turn, President Obasanjo stood by her.
“No. 2”, she said, “be very careful with our colleagues. They are the biggest threat to anyone in this office. They will bad mouth you. They will try to pull you down. They will claim that they know how to do the job better than you. They will envy you and try to undermine you. Just hold on to your principal. Once the President believes you are doing a good job, there is nothing anybody can do to you.”
“No. 3”, she added, “take good care of your health. This job drains you from head to toe. You will be busy throughout and yet everybody will criticize you. But you have to keep healthy and safe. If anything happens to you, it is only your family that will be most affected. Stay healthy and alive for your family.”
This last bit frightened me a little. Mrs. Oyo’s predecessor in the same office, Mr. Tunji Oseni had died from complications from a respiratory condition. Seeing that I was a bit scared, she brought the conversation to an end with: “Aburo, good luck. You’d be fine.”
She was right on every score. Nobody can do the job of a spokesperson without the principal’s support. One of the first things I experienced was what became known in the Villa at the time as “The Gap Theory”. It was explained to me by a gentleman called Akachukwu Sullivan Nwakpo. In my early days at the Villa, Akachukwu had thought it necessary to explain the gap theory to me as follows: that the Villa is a dog-eat-dog space. You have to man your space and guard it jealously. If you are off guard for a minute, someone would see that as an opportunity and try to do your job for you. He advised me to be vigilant and keep out interlopers.
Media work was actually something everyone thought they could do including those who could not write a successful paragraph in the English language. People would come to me and tell me “Oga says you must write this press release”. Twice, I fell for their trick. I took the statements to President Jonathan, until he had to make it clear to me that I must never issue any statement without his direct authorization or listen to any third party giving me instructions. Nonetheless, there were persons who thought they knew best how to do the job. Our colleagues in the media, as Mrs. Oyo predicted, were not very kind either. They used to go behind to seek audience with President Jonathan. Some of them even brought drafts of speeches, not knowing the President would still hand over every draft to me with the rider: “see if there is anything you can take from this or that draft. Some of my friends in the media brought them to me”. These friends in the media had developed a method of by-passing my office. In the end, their hustle did not make any difference. President Jonathan had assured me that I should not be bothered. As President, it was his duty to encourage everyone and give people hope. Did I try to protect the territory as Akachukwu advised? I leave that to other people to judge. Did I keep safe? That is another story for another day. I was too glad to return home in one piece. It is not everything that a hunter sees or hears in the forest that he gets back home to tell. After leaving Aso Villa, one of the things I did was to visit Chief Duro Onabule (1939 – 2022), popularly known as double Chief. He is a veteran journalist, former Editor of the National Concord (1984-1985). He had just returned from vacation in England, and he called to say he had bought a book for me. I went to his residence at Dolphin Estate in Ikoyi. He had stories to tell, similar to Mrs Oyo’s comments about the spokesperson’s assignment. He re-echoed Mrs Oyo’s experience when he told me that the biggest threat to any journalist in government is his or her own colleagues. Double Chief was spokesperson to President Ibrahim Babangida.
I remembered Mrs Oyo’s advice the other day when Ajuri Ngelale threw in the towel as President Tinubu’s spokesperson. Was he muscled out by some of our colleagues who wanted his job, and thought they were better at it or better qualified? Did he protect his territory enough? Or was he a victim of Akachukwu’s gap theory? And there was a line in his letter of resignation: that he needed to attend to his family’s medical needs. Again, this thing about health and one’s family after an encounter with Aso Villa. Did he have President Tinubu’s full support? Many lessons for future spokespersons.
But we are here this morning to remember and celebrate late Mrs. Oluremi Oyo, FNGE, FNIM, OON (1952 – 2014). “Almighty God, we remember with thanksgiving Mrs Remi Oyo, Thank you for everything we treasure about her, for all that she means to us. Take care of her, Lord, until we all reach that time and place where every tear is dry, every question answered and all things are made new. Lord in your love, Hear our prayer. Amen.”
A battle on the electoral turf has just been won and lost in Edo state, Nigeria. Governor Godwin Obaseki was elected as Governor in 2016 on the platform of the All-Progressive Congress (APC) in that state. By 2019, he had fallen out of favour with the Godfather that brought him to power, former Nigerian Labour Congress President, and former Governor of Edo State for eight years (2008 – 2016), now Senator Adams Oshiomhole. In due course, Oshiomhole left the PDP and pitched his tent with the APC where he would later rise to the position of the National Chairman of the Party. In 2020, Obaseki crossed over to the Peoples’ Democratic Party and successfully upstaged his Godfather to get a second term in office. His tenure in office ends on November 11, 2024. Hence, there has been a lead up to Gubernatorial elections in Edo State to mark the effective end of Obaseki’s tenure, the Nigerian Constitution providing for only two terms in office for Governors and the President. The Gubernatorial election to see Obaseki out of office and to determine the next occupant of the Osadebey Government House in Benin was held on Saturday, September 21, with 17 candidates and political parties on the ballot.
We were eventually confronted with a three horse-way race involving boardroom guru and lawyer, Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, Senator Monday Okpebholo of the APC and former Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) President, Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP) as the leading contenders. The voting took place in 4, 519 polling units, in the state’s three Senatorial districts, with 35, 000 policemen in attendance along with 8, 000 other security agents – military, EFCC and the Civil Defence Corps. Total number of registered voters in the election was 2, 629, 025. Total number of 2, 249, 780 voters’ cards were collected. It was a high stakes election as seen in the febrile drama that led to the election, with the incumbent Governor saying it was a do-or-die election in which the Federal Government was determined to rig in favour of the APC candidate, creating a Federal Might vs. The People’s might encounter. The PDP further alleged that the state police command and the state resident INEC commissioner were known associates of former Governor of Rivers State, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike. The Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun pledged that the police were impartial and unbiased. Wike did not help matters by boasting openly on live television that no Jupiter could change the police commissioner in Edo state and the INEC resident commissioner and that he, Wike would not endorse either Ighodalo or the PDP in Edo State. This is the same Wike who claims to be the political leader of the PDP in Rivers State, but he is currently an unabashed agent of the APC in deed and in words! No individual should be so brazen.
Instructively, Obaseki, the PDP and their candidate refused to sign the Peace Accord that had been brokered by the National Peace Committee, a respectable body of eminent men and women led by Nigeria’s former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah and others. A Governorship debate that was organized for the candidates was boycotted by the PDP and APC. Only the candidate of the LP showed up to complain bitterly about the effrontery of the APC that offered to send Senator Adams Oshiomhole who was clearly not the candidate to stand in for Okpebholo. Similarly, Akpata condemned Ighodalo. There were fears about the possible outbreak of violence and the breakdown of law and order. Poll watchers and analysts pointed to a number of factors that could determine the September 21 election as follows: climate of fear and voter apathy, which could affect voter turn-out, manipulation of votes, violence and ballot snatching, vote buying or stomach infrastructure; voter suppression, current economic hardship, neutrality of otherwise of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security agencies, the influence of key political actors especially Godfathers, Federal might and power of incumbency at both Federal and state levels. When the battle was won and determined on September 21, against the background of a slew of allegations and mixed reactions, INEC on September 22, announced the results to the effect that Monday Okepbholo of the APC had been validly elected, with 291, 667 votes, winning in 11 Local Government Areas, Asue Ighodalo, the PDP candidate, with 247, 274 votes with majority in 7 LGAs, and Olumide Akpata, of the LP with 22, 763 votes, without any majority in any LGA, not even in his own polling unit. APC leaders have been singing and dancing since then, claiming that God has blessed the words of their mouth, that the APC would triumph. The PDP leaders believe that they have been robbed. Gov. Obaseki calls this “a travesty and a tragedy”, a display of brute force and a violation of the people’s right to choose. He has however asked that the aggrieved should be calm and seek redress by following due process in expressing their grievances. Asue Ighodalo, the PDP candidate alleges that the Edo Election 2024, might be the worst ever in the history of this country. Akpata says the votes went to the highest bidder. Mr. Peter Obi, Presidential candidate of the LP has said this was a case of “state capture”.
My quick observation is that whatever happens hereafter, perhaps at the election petition tribunal and the courts, both Ighodalo and Akpata have put up a gallant and spirited challenge and there are more people in and out of Edo State who consider them the better candidates in the race. If the beauty of television advertisements alone could win elections, the tally would have gone to Olumide Akpata. If the ability to speak English grammar and a person’s pedigree mattered for anything in Nigerian politics, Ighodalo would have won. What we have just been confronted with in Edo state is the reality of Nigerian politics - where ideas, pedigree, brilliance - in the context of a webbed transactional politics that compromise and overwhelm every single factor in the process, do not matter.
In 1999, shortly after the election that brought President Obasanjo and the PDP to power in Nigeria, election observers had reported that Nigerian politicians had devised many methods of election rigging, which some analysts identified in a well-publicized list. This led to talks about electoral reform and the need to clean up Nigeria’s elections to promote the common good. In 2003, and 2007, analysts had observed greater sophistication in the corrupt manipulation of election results across the country. It was so bad in 2007 that the Yar’Adua/Jonathan administration that came to power openly admitted that the elections were flawed, and insisted that the most urgent task before Nigeria was electoral reform. In 2015, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan was a victim of his own insistence on the values of transparency, integrity and accountability in elections. The APC leaders who succeeded him could not care less. In 2021, it was a tough battle to get the amended Electoral Reform Bill of 2010 signed by President Buhari. In fact, it was not signed for flimsy reasons. In 2022, the National Assembly finally managed to smuggle in an Electoral Act 2022, under which the 2023 general elections were conducted. But in real terms, nothing has changed since 1999. Civil society groups are still arguing for an Electoral Framework with the same old argument that the extant Electoral Act is defective. The first lesson of Edo Election 2024 is that nothing has changed in Nigerian politics. The political parties, the institutions, the politicians and the people have learnt nothing. The people quotient of Nigerian democracy is weak, poor, disconnected. Edo State has just confirmed our worst fears. There has been open, front-face evidence of vote-trading. On Saturday, September 21, politicians and agents offered to buy votes, with the cost now as high as N20, 000. It used to be cheaper to buy a vote, but we are made to understand that the high inflation in the land and economic hardship have both marked up asking prices. In Edo, they were selling votes as if they were trading bags of tomatoes. Ballots were snatched. Ballot papers were burnt. There were sporadic shootings if not an outright breakout of violence. Yiaga Africa, one of the many civil society observer groups that formed the Nigerian Situation Room observing the Edo election has reported that the biggest problem was the failure of integrity.
The stakes were high. Edo 2024 was a revenge operation among the Godfathers and the political actors. It has been said that the loser in the election is not Asue Ighodalo (PDP) but Godwin Obaseki, the incumbent Governor, seen to be the main supporter of Ighodalo, and who had acquired a very powerful team of former allies turned “enemies”. These enemies were determined to teach him a lesson for alienating them. Asue Ighodalo probably chose the wrong party for as we see, there was nothing he could have done to please the likes of Adams Oshiomhole, the Godfather whom Obaseki turned against and embarrassed thoroughly and Philip Shuaibu, the Deputy Governor whom Obaseki despised and humiliated. There were other anti-Obaseki political actors: Dan Orbih, Anselm Ojezua, Osagie Ize-Iyamu and Kabiru Adjoto. Obaseki was also considered unfriendly to the exalted throne of the Omo N’Oba. In Edo state, anyone considered rude to the palace loses favour, even among the people. The Oba once had cause to admonish Obaseki publicly to remember that one day he would no longer be Governor and he should be guided accordingly. That moment has arrived! It is Ighodalo who has now paid the price of this undercurrent. Philip Shuaibu was on television yesterday boasting that he won his polling unit, his ward and his LGA for Monday Okpebholo, the best record in Edo State. He boasted that Obaseki was a non-politician that was brought from Lagos and made a Governor. Obaseki in this last election did not win his ward and LGA. He was outboxed, outthought, and bulldozed as Daniel Dubois did to Anthony Joshua at the IBF boxing match at the Wembley Stadium the very same day! In 2020, Obaseki boasted, while seeking a second term, that “Edo No Be Lagos” in a subtle reference to Tinubu’s promise that he would return Edo State to the APC. Over the weekend, the point would seem to have been made that “Edo is now Lagos” and we saw the APC chieftains dancing. Shuaibu says Obaseki has to come and beg the victors. That may not be an idle threat.
The security agencies have been praised for overseeing a peaceful election in Edo State. But was it free and fair? Is the outcome fair to all parties concerned? It would have been scandalous for the security agencies to deploy a total of 43, 000 men, who could have been put to better use to fight banditry and terrorism, to an off-cycle election and we would have a breakdown of law and order. The architects of violence in Edo State had to moderate their madness perhaps because the security presence was intimidating, and oppressive. Edo State was like a war zone. Two days earlier, Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa was on the ground to address his troops and the people, noting that he had express instructions from the President, Commander in Chief to enforce peace in Edo State. Elections should not be held with the gun pointed at the people’s heads. It should be a peaceful, civil event where the people make informed choices freely and without fear and pressure. Not surprisingly, voter turn-out in the Edo election was low, despite the people’s obvious enthusiasm. Election observers put the voter turn-out rate at 22.4% with a margin of error of +/- 1.6%, much lower than the 27% turn-out in the 2020 Edo Gubernatorial election. If this is a case of apathy, then it means the people in Edo as elsewhere, are beginning to lose faith in Nigeria’s electoral process.
INEC, the electoral umpire has featured prominently in the various reports. The electoral umpire did well with BVAS and accreditation but voting processes did not start early. As at 8:30 am only about 17% of the voters had been accredited, by 11:51 am, about 64%. For an off-cycle election in just one state, this was not good enough. There were inconsistencies in the officially announced results, on IREV, the INEC portal. At some point, the political parties and their agents felt obliged to take over the collation process. Governor Adamu Fintiri of Adamawa state who was in Benin, as Chairman of the PDP Campaign Council for the Edo election, had to do his own collation and advise INEC not to delay the announcement of results in outstanding three LGAs. Fintiri had to explain that he had not broken any law – he merely announced what he found on the IREV portal. Nonetheless, INEC is the only body empowered by law to announce any results. But Fintiri insists that the Edo election was a rape of democracy and that the PDP candidate won. He says he weeps for Nigeria because “democracy is under attack”. The desperation of the various political personae casts doubts on the effectiveness of INEC in the Edo election. There is no denying it: there is still the urgent need to strengthen electoral institutions and address the challenge of reforms. Obviously, no amount of law can transform Nigeria’s elections unless the people themselves agree to change and the institutions function differently.
The Edo Gubernatorial election 2024 has taken place against the background of the fact that many Nigerians have been complaining about poor governance and hunger in Nigeria. In August, this class of Nigerians openly expressed their anger and they are threatening to do so again in October. In other climes, when people face economic hardship in the hands of a sitting government, they express themselves through the polls when they have the opportunity to do so. Nigeria is a strange country where a political party’s performance in power does not really matter, and hence, politicians get rewarded, regardless of how the people think or feel. It is therefore not for nothing that an APC chieftain has remarked that the outcome of the Edo election is an affirmation of the people’s confidence in President Tinubu’s economic reforms. It is possible in Nigerian politics to say anything when your party has won and has been declared winner. The standard rule in Nigerian politics is for you to work on your strategy so well, whether in a crooked manner or not, win and let the other party complain. Both PDP/Ighodalo and LP/Akpata may be talking to their lawyers right now but while they are spending more money paying lawyers, Monday Okpebholo would be sworn in on November 11, 2024. With the Federal Might behind him, and powerful Godfathers like Adams Oshiomhole, Nyesom Wike, Philip Shuaibu and the APC demolition machinery involved, it would be difficult to upturn the results announced on September 22. It is called realpolitik.