One of the most concerning subjects in Nigeria today is the renewed call for the liberalization of access to the ownership of guns, in the face of the worsening state of insecurity in the country. This is not the. first time such a call would be made. With insecurity ravaging Nigeria in the last two decades in the form of banditry, terrorism, kidnapping, sectarian violence, ethnic strife and religious conflicts resulting in an orgy of killings, and destruction of property, the displacement of persons, and a persistently apparent inability of the Nigerian state to serve its true purpose which is to ensure “the security and welfare of the people”, the despair, angst and bitterness among the people has led not a few to demand that the best option for Nigerians is to allow every citizen to own a gun and defend themselves. The thinking is that the best way to address terror is to counter it with terror in similar or equal proportion.

As recently as 2018, for example, a member of the Nigerian Senate, Senator Kabir Marafa (Zamfara Central) while contributing to a debate on insecurity in the country, told his colleagues matter of factly that “… people cannot be slaughtered in their houses helplessly. Maybe what we need to do is to liberalise gun control. Let everybody own a gun so that when you are coming to my house, you will know that I have my own gun while you are coming with yours”. Marafa’s home state of Zamfara is one of the killing fields in the North West of Nigeria. Six years later, the situation has only worsened. By 2021, the Nigeria Security Tracker created by the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) had counted up to 2,700 deaths in less than 10 years due to insecurity in Nigeria – and even that was a modest estimate because for the most part many acts of violence are unreported or under-reported. Senator Marafa is not alone. He spoke the mind of many others. Nigeria is a country truly where many people are “slaughtered helplessly”. By 2021, Darius Ishaku, then Governor of Taraba state (2015-2023), and Bashir Magashi, Minister of Defence as he then was (2019 – 2023), had also suggested that the people should be courageous to carry arms in self-defence.

In 2022, Zamfara state even went a step further when it announced that the governor, Bello Matawalle, had directed the state police commissioner to issue gun licences in each of the 19 emirates in the state to those wishing to defend themselves. “Government is ready to facilitate people, especially our farmers to secure basic weapons for defending themselves”, the state commissioner of information reportedly said. State Commissioners of Police do not ordinarily take instructions from state Governors but at least that Governor had to be seen to be saying something. Similarly, in Katsina state, then Governor Aminu Masari (2015 – 2023), frustrated with the spate of killings in his state, once told the people of the North West state to “buy guns and defend themselves.” He reportedly added that “it is Islamically allowed for one to defend himself against attack. One must rise to defend himself, his family and assets. If you die while trying to defend yourself, you’d be considered a martyr. It is surprising how a bandit would own a gun while a good man trying to defend himself and his family doesn’t have one”. Masari had the support of a group called Katsina State Innovative Thinkers Initiative. He was opposed by the Katsina State Chapter of the Coalition of Northern Groups. Other state Governors who at one point or the other called for the right to bear arms include the late Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu, SAN (with regard to Amotekun), and former Zamfara Governor, Bello Matawalle. In May 2023, Hon. Alhassan Ado-Doguwa (Doguwa /Tundun Wada Federal Constituency) made a similar call. Thus, the conversation about the need to liberalize the ownership of guns in Nigeria has been recurrent, and has even become strident as each successive administration fails to improve the people’s conditions. But would the open ownership of guns by Nigerians solve any problem? I don’t think so.

With the mindless killings in three local governments in Plateau state, and in Taraba and Zamfara between Christmas Eve and the end of the year 2023, that question has reared its head again. Over 200 persons were killed, more than 300 injured, about 10, 000 were rendered homeless, in a carnage that went on for more than two days despite over 30 distress calls to the security agencies! More persons are now calling for arms in every possible hand that can pull a trigger, urging the people to resort to self-help and these include Senator Ned Nwoko who has called for the introduction of a bill that allows civilians to own and carry firearms, Mike Ejiofor, a security expert, who says a culture of resistance in the face of mindless attacks should be encouraged, and a group of Kaduna youths who have asked President Tinubu to allow them to carry arms to defend themselves and their communities. The National President of the Middle Belt Forum, Dr. Bitrus Pogu has also recently expressed the view that “Nigerians should be allowed to carry at least some arms to defend themselves and to restrain them from doing so would amount to “a conspiracy against the people”. However, the Chief of Army Staff, General Taoreed Lagbaja objects to all these calls, saying it is a call for anarchy.

What the Army Chief failed to note is that what the people are actually reacting to is the failure of the institutions that he represents, the Nigerian security establishment and the utter failure of the Nigerian state. The state in Nigeria has failed the people so badly that lives have become cheap and worthless, our common humanity has been eroded. In virtually every part of the country, people do not feel safe, farmers in the Middle Belt, the North West and the North Central cannot go to their farms. It is risky to travel by road or trains as the routes have been taken over by bandits and kidnappers. Worse still, the same security agencies that are maintained at tax-payers expense to protect the people are for the most part agents of violence inflicting pain on the people, as has been seen in sundry cases of police brutality, abuse of uniform, accidental killings, and the professional omissions of the men in uniform. Having lost faith in the capacity of the state to protect them, if not in the state itself, many Nigerians are compelled to resort to self-help. It has been argued that in fact certain forms of violence such as terrorism, ethnic conflict and sectarian violence are actually acts of rebellion against Nigeria itself - its organization and dis-organization, beyond the felt criminal implications. This is why the long-term solution must begin with making the Nigerian state functional for the citizens’ benefit. Putting a gun in every hand may not be the solution. In a country where there is so much ingrained bitterness, and religious/ethnic divisions, as well as frustrations about the common patrimony and matters of justice, fairness and equity, the liberalization of gun use would be an invitation indeed to chaos and nihilism.

Ownership of guns in Nigeria today is controlled by the Firearms Control Act (2004), the principal provisions of which state that (1) no person shall have in his possession or under his control, any firearm or ammunition except such persons is licensed by the President or the Inspector General of Police (2) no such license should be granted to persons under the age of 17, persons who are of unsound mind, persons with eyesight problems, and persons that have anger control issues, and only the Inspector General of Police can grant a license to make and repair arms; (3) personal firearms including shotguns and automatic/semi-automatic guns are prohibited; (4) anyone who violates the law is liable to a minimum sentence of 10 years imprisonment. Those who ask for the right to own guns are quick to draw attention to Section 14 (2) (b) of the 1999 Constitution and how the government seems to have failed the people; Section 33(1) which protects the citizen’s right to life, and Section 33 (2)(a) which gives a private citizen the right to use reasonable force to defend himself/herself as well as property from unlawful violence. The pro-gun lobby go a step further to point to the limiting effects of the aforementioned provisions of the Firearms Control Act. Except this Act is amended, and I do not see why it should be amended, Nigerians including those who want guns are duty bound to obey it.

Whereas Constitutional provisions constitute the basic law, part of the insecurity challenge in Nigeria is the failure to implement and enforce the Firearms Act. There are firearms and ammunition of different brands and capacity in millions of unlicensed hands. The Nigerian government is not sure of the number of guns already in circulation in Nigeria. Our borders are porous, and there are all kinds of local gun manufacturers in hidden places manufacturing and repairing arms without any license. In many parts of the country, live ammunition is sold in underground markets and Nigerian security agencies have no quality intelligence as to how that ecosystem works. The law says persons with unsound mind or poor eyesight should not hold weapons. For the benefit of whoever cares to listen, Nigeria is a theatre of mass psychosis. How else can we explain the phenomenon of trigger-happy security agents, who threaten as they wish to waste people’s lives with the assurance that nothing will happen? In a country where there is cultism even in primary schools, it would be mere wishful thinking to assume that persons younger than 17 do not already have access to guns. The menace of drug abuse has turned Nigeria into a bomb waiting to explode. Hunger angers the people. Mass unemployment has thrown many into depression with maniacal tendencies. Are these the people we want to give the freedom to bear arms and ammunition in the name of self-defence? In a country that in fact believes in witchcraft, the resultant anarchy could eventually lead to civil insurrection. We must not adopt a measure that can consume the nation.

The view has been expressed that Nigeria should be like the United States where the right to bear firearms is constitutionally guaranteed under the Second Amendment. Let such persons be reminded that one of the major threats, in the same United States, is the right to bear arms - a threat to lives, hopes, the economy, politics, a harvest of deaths and violence that has become an American epidemic. Gun-related deaths in the US have risen by more than 50% in the last decade, with an average of about 100 deaths being reported daily on average. Mass shootings are common, in 2022 alone about 46 school shootings were reported. In Richmond, Virginia, in the last three years, almost 30 students have died in gun-related violence.

Even the National Rifle Association (NRA), the umbrella body for gun-lobbyists and self-styled defenders of the Second Amendment, has been exposed as a group of hypocrites. Their long-term CEO/Vice President, Wayne LaPierre has just announced his resignation with effect from January 31, under very controversial circumstances bordering on corruption. It is a mortal sin to engorge at the expense of other people’s lives. It is specious to argue that “the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is with a good guy with a gun.” Nigerians are good copycats, but we must be careful what we copy from other societies in the throes of their own peculiar kind of mass psychosis. Nigeria must not borrow other people’s madness as a solution to its internal problems.

The thing to do is to re-tool and refurbish our security agencies. The Nigeria Police is too weak as it is to enforce any laws in any meaningful and sustainable manner. The Police are primarily responsible for the protection of lives and property. They seem to have submitted that responsibility to the military even under a civilian dispensation. It is scandalous that they are often absent during moments of major security breaches. Many of the affected communities prefer to direct distress calls to the military, pretending not to know that Nigeria has a Police Force. The National Council of State should meet more often to encourage inter-agency collaboration, complementarity and the sharing of intelligence. It is argued that everyone should carry arms and ammunition because cattle herders do so for both personal security and economic reasons - the cattle herder may need to protect himself, but only as long as his firearm is licensed. Cattle rearing is still an issue because of climate change and desertification in the North, but this is a security problem that can be stopped through an effective cattle ranching system.

In Kwara State at a time, the Shonga Farms, led by white Zimbabwe farmers managed cattle ranches that fed people and serviced hotels and dairy farms, before that, some states in parts of the country had ranches – the Obudu Cattle Ranch in Cross River state for example. In 2024, Nigerians should not be fighting over animal grazing. Ethiopia has millions of cattle: how to feed the stock is not an issue. Cattle rearing does not have to be ethnically determined. Nothing stops state governments in parts of Nigeria from engaging in livestock farming to reduce the North-South seasonal migrations. The Joint Task Force in the North East also bears arms: but are they licensed to do so as part of a formal response to the crisis in that area? That is the question. And let those who ask for guns for all note that the Firearms Act actually favours only the rich. A firearm does not come cheap. The poor cannot afford to build an artillery. The rich are busy doing so, and the more arms and ammunition that they buy and give to their political thugs and other agents, the more they endanger this country. When the rule of law and political will begin to prevail and good men control the system, Nigeria will begin to turn the corner with its security challenges.

It is a new year, a new month, a new day, and fittingly, this is the right moment to look backwards and to the future. One of the major planks of received wisdom is that the past is linked to the present and both offer indications about the future and that is precisely where we are at this moment, that Janus moment of transition, the very significance of the new month. January is named after the Roman God, Janus, who has two faces, and a set of four eyes looking in two different directions. And so, let us begin by looking back at the year 2023 with domestic lenses.

For me, four things stood out in Nigeria in 2023. The first is the fact that it was the year of Nigeria’s seventh general elections since the return to democracy in 1999, and thus represented a major test for the democratic process in the country. It was a test for the electoral framework, and the institutions in charge of the management of the electoral process; the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties, the security agencies, the judiciary, and the civil society, including the media. Expectations were particularly high among Nigerians in the lead up to the elections, especially with much hope invested in the review of the Electoral Act 2010, which birthed the Electoral Act 2022.

The new Act was different in many significant parts, such as Section 3(3) which requires that electoral funds should be released at least a year before the next election date, Section 29(1) which provides that party primaries and submission of candidates be done at least 180 days before the election date; Sections 47 and 50 which provide legal backing for the use of technology for voter accreditation and electronic transmission of results; Section 54(2) on the rights of persons with disability in need of special care to vote and be voted for; Section 62 which gives legal backing for INEC to maintain an electronic register of votes, Section 65 which says INEC can review results declared by any returning officer under duress within seven days. Other new aspects of Electoral Act 2022 can be found in Sections 8(5), 27, 29(5), 34, 84(12), 88 (2-7) and 94. These amendments generated so much excitement that at least one retired Resident Electoral Commissioner made media rounds proclaiming with prophetic candour that the new Act would be a “a game changer”, and that the introduction of the Bi-Modal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Report Viewing Portal (IREV) were technological measures that would prove to be stronger than the Titanic, that is “unsinkable.” Elections were held on February 25 (Presidential and National Assembly), March 11 (gubernatorial and state Houses of Assembly) and November 11, viz the off-cycle Gubernatorial elections in three states- Imo, Kogi and Bayelsa. Long before the November 11 elections, our enthusiastic promoter of the new Electoral Act had quietly vanished from the media space. He wisely removed himself, because Electoral Act 2022 did not change the game, and the introduction of technology failed in a manner worse than the Titanic.

The usual factors that had always abbreviated the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral process proved resilient: there was violence across the states, the exploitation of religion and ethnicity, attempts at voter manipulation, suppression, vote buying by political actors, the rhetoric of hate, open disregard for the peace accords midwifed by General Abdusalam Abubakar’s National Peace Committee, late arrival of voting materials, poor co-ordination between INEC and other agencies involved in election management. INEC mismanaged the technology that it promised, swelling controversies about integrity and accountability. INEC’s excuse was “technological glitches. The people regarded this as an excuse for manipulation. Voter apathy was rife - for the Presidential election, voter turnout was 27%, about the lowest since 1999. The declared winner of the Presidential election, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won with 8.8 million votes, representing less than 10% of the record 93 million Nigerians who registered to vote. In terms of outcome, women representation in elective office was also poor. Many Nigerians however would further remember four things in the 2023 electoral process: Tinubu’s campaign slogan – “Emilokan” (it is my turn), the Obidient Movement which proved to be resilient, the dis-embowelling of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and what turned out to be the much-criticised, controversial role of the judiciary. Nigerians are entering a new year with the hangover of the electoral experience of 2023.

The second stand-out issue of 2023 was the poor state of the economy. The statistics as collated and published by the National Bureau of Statistics and other agencies, including The World Bank largely confirmed how Nigeria in 2023 was a victim of stagflation, and multidimensional poverty. In the first half of 2023, GDP growth was 2.4%, rising to about 2.8% by the end of the second half. In June 2023, inflation rate was 22.79%, by November 2023, it was already 28.22% compared to 21,34% in December 2022. Food inflation was a major problem: 32.84% as of November 2023, following an increasing trend year on year. The heterodox policies adopted by the Federal Government did not help the people. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s wrong-headed introduction of new Naira notes of N200, N500, and N1, 000 resulted in cash scarcity, the scarcity of everything else and hardship. The government complained about poor revenue, the people groaned. Fuel price was N191 per litre in December 2022. On May 29, 2023, President Tinubu on the day of his inauguration as President announced that “fuel subsidy has been removed… it is gone”. This spontaneous declaration further compounded the people’s woes, driving the cost of petrol per litre to N626. Salaries have not been increased. More jobs have not been created.

The government says its plan is to obey the law, the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) which the Buhari administration failed to implement in full as the law requires. The Tinubu administration also argues that the removal of fuel subsidy will curb inefficiency and corruption and generate more revenue for the government. Many economists attest to the fact more money has been saved as a result of subsidy removal, hence the sharp increase in federal allocations to the states. But how has this impacted on the people? What the people see is the conspicuous consumption by their elected representatives at both national and sub-national levels, while the people wallow in abject poverty. The Tinubu administration also harmonized the foreign exchange rate, but the naira has continued on a downward spiral against the dollar, even when the dollar is in a weak state. Budget 2024 has been pegged at N800/$1 whereas on December 17, 2023, the CBN announced a new exchange rate of N951/$1, and by December 2023, the parallel market rate was N1,233/$1. Capital importation in 2023 was low, with 27 states of the Federation getting zero FDI. Many companies have left Nigeria – GSK, P&G, Sanofi, Unilever, Bolt Food, Sanofi, Jumia due to a poor operating environment.

The irony is that since the assumption of office, President Tinubu has been very active wooing investors from all over the world to come to the Nigerian market. His key economic managers – Minister of Finance, Wale Edun and CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso have been most emphatic in reminding Nigerians that the Buhari administration left Nigeria in a miserable economic state. The country’s public debt stock for example was N49, 85 trillion in Q1 2023, by the end of Q2, it had risen to N87.38 trillion indicating a growth rate 75.27% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Yet, in the 2024 budget, Nigeria is planning to borrow more! The economic crisis that Nigeria faces was driven home on Friday, December 29, when as President Tinubu’s long and conspicuous convoy made its way to the Lagos Central Mosque, the hapless people of Lagos kept shouting: “Ebi n pa wa oh” (We are hungry!). It was a telling moment, underscoring the rich-poor social gap in Nigeria.

The third issue is the insecurity in the land. Nigerians had voted for General Muhammadu Buhari with the firm belief that he being a military general and a war hero would be able to take the war to the bandits, insurgents and terrorists making life impossible in many parts of the country: terrorism in the North East, insurgency in the North Central, crude oil theft in the Niger Delta, illegal mining in the North West, kidnapping and agitations in the South East and South West. Buhari’s spokespersons including those who went about with the specious title of Buharists kept selling the lie that the government had decimated terrorists. The truth is that the Buhari administration left the country in a worse state security-wise than it met it. As events unfolded, the year came to an end with attacks on over 50 communities in Plateau state Local Government Areas of Bokkos, Mangu and Barkin Ladi on Christmas eve and on Christmas Day and after. It was reported that about 200 people were killed, over 300 were injured, over 10, 000 were displaced, becoming refugees in their own country. There have also been reports of attacks in Zamfara and Taraba states. For more than two decades, Nigerians have not been able to enjoy the full benefits of Section 14 (2b) of the 1999 Constitution which says that “the purpose of government shall be the security and welfare of the people”. The sad thing is that for decades, the Nigerians government set up so many judicial commissions of inquiry on the crisis on the Plateau beginning with Justice Fiberesima Commission, 1994, Justice Niki Tobi 2001, Justice Bola Ajibola, 2009, the Justice Disu Commission and the Sankey Commission. There have also been similar interventions such as the Presidential Peace Initiative Committee on Plateau State, 2004, the Plateau Peace Conference 2004, the Plateau Peace Conference, 2004 and the Presidential Advisory Committee on the Jos Crisis. What happened to the findings and recommendations? Why has nothing changed? Why is the situation deteriorating? The Jos Council of Traditional rulers had to cancel the celebration of Christmas 2023 in Plateau. State. The people entered the new year on a note of grief and sadness.

Their grief was compounded by the strange explanation by the Defence Headquarters that it indeed received over 30 distress calls before and during the carnage, but the troops could not intervene because the terrain was difficult. The same terrain where criminals operated freely for hours and days? The Inspector General of Police has since deployed a team led by a Deputy Inspector General (DIG) to investigate what happened. Medicine after death! The strangest of all was the Commander of Operation Safe Haven, having the temerity to tell the grieving people of Plateau state that it was the devil’s handiwork, and that the situation could have been worse, the military was overwhelmed. Thus, “Operation Safe Haven” has not been able to provide any safety in Plateau state, and to see that a military General would be so dumb as to blame the Devil points to the height of insensitivity.

The fourth major issue in 2023 is the lack of trust and confidence in the government by the people of Nigeria. The people are alienated from those who govern them and the reason is not far to seek. At a time, the government of the day has been calling on the people as “heirs of the commonwealth” to make sacrifices and work together with government to move the country forward, people are miffed to see people in government not willing to make any sacrifice. President Tinubu has promised the people “Renewed Hope” but he is running the most bloated government since 1999. The National Assembly has increased Budget 2024 with N1.2 trillion bringing the new total to N28.7 trillion. The lawmakers are obviously more interested in their own perks and privileges. Two per cent of the budget is ear-marked for education in a country where there are over 20.1 million children out of school. The allocation for sports development is a paltry N31.24 billion – 0.11% of the Budget. Meanwhile, the lawmakers have earmarked N12.12 billion as take-off grant for the National Assembly library complex, and N3 billion for library books – a library that they have no intention of visiting; books that they may never read! They also want to build a car park with N3 billion. Nigerians have every reason to be angry. Leadership should be about service not self-interest, pursued with unbridled greed.

It is just as well that the President has acknowledged the people’s pains. In his New Year broadcast, he said inter alia: “I am well aware that for some time now the conversations and debates have centred on the rising cost of living, high inflation which is now above 28% and the unacceptable high under-employment rate. From the board rooms at Broad Street in Lagos to the main streets of Kano and Nembe creeks in Bayelsa, I hear the groans of Nigerians who work hard every day to provide for themselves and their families. I am not oblivious to the expressed and sometimes unexpressed frustrations of my fellow citizens. I know for a fact that some of our compatriots are even asking if this is how our administration wants to renew their hope.” It is good to know that the President knows what the people are going through. It is important for him to know that as they enter a new year, the people also have high expectations, meeting those expectations should be the government’s priority in 2024 to bridge the gap of alienation and rebuild trust and confidence.

The people want the high cost of living reduced. The President must remember the people’s chorus on his way to the Central Mosque in Lagos (“Ebi n pa wa”). Governments at all levels must address the scourge of food inflation. Every step must be taken to create an enabling environment for businesses to flourish, and for the economy to become productive. The government must also tackle high corruption, not by harassing people but by setting up processes and mechanisms to check it. The report of the CBN independent investigator must not be swept under the carpet. The investigator may have gone beyond his brief by making specific recommendations- that task should have been left to the office of the Attorney General of the Federation or a committee set up for that purpose. Nonetheless, government must take a look at the findings. The conversation about electoral reform, constitutional amendments is already on-going. The National Assembly must be encouraged to embark on that task very early, far ahead of the next round of general elections. The professional political class and civil society must act as opposition and play their part as true “heirs of the commonwealth”. Government must step up the war against insecurity. The New Year has started. Time waits for no one.

In 1973, writer and dermatologist, Professor Anezi Okoro published a novel for young adults titled “One Week, One Trouble.” It tells the story of Wilson Tagbo, a secondary school student, who from the first day he got enrolled until he got to senior secondary 3 grade, had one trouble or the other in what was clearly a process of becoming and self-discovery. “One Week, One Trouble” made it to the Nigerian school curriculum, and has further become a ready reference for the reckless manner in which Nigerian politicians are drawn to controversies like flees to nectar. Accordingly, we have had cause to use this phrase to describe the reign of impunity, ego and chaos that has now overtaken the oil-rich Niger Delta state of Rivers. If Wilson Tagbo got into trouble on a weekly basis, the situation in Rivers is worse. For the past three months, Rivers has been experiencing trouble on a daily basis, creating a situation that is best described as “One Day, One Trouble” in a two-hander plot featuring Nyesom Wike, former Governor of Rivers State, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and his successor, the incumbent Governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara. The conflict and the drama are a classic stuff of godfather-godson relations in Nigerian politics.

As it was in the past, so it is now, and so shall it be in the future, except Nigeria de-monetizes its politics, emphasizes the integrity of the people’s vote and insists on transparency and accountability of processes, and institutions. More than 24 years after Nigeria’s return to civilian rule, the pervasive opinion is that democracy in Nigeria is putative. What usually happens is that a Godfather with too much money or influence, acquired through control of state resources which he can deploy at will, as in the case of incumbent Governors seeking to cover their backs, by installing a successor through whom they can continue to rule, even after leaving office as constitutionally mandated, or the Godfather may be a man of influence whose political weight is built on the widely acknowledged assumption that he has direct control of critical institutions of state and that his will could override the people’s wish. Godfathers in Nigerian politics are genetically delusionary. One after the other we have seen them exhibiting a Messianic complex until they are either reminded that they are human, all too human, or they succeed in removing the recalcitrant anointed godson. Between the two polarities is a lot of melodrama, the type we are now witnessing in Rivers State, and as we saw before in Enugu state between Jim Nwobodo and Chimaroke Nnamani, in Anambra State, Chris Uba vs. Chris Ngige, in Oyo Sate, Lamidi Adedibu vs. Rasheed Adewolu Ladoja, in Kano State, Abdullahi Ganduje vs. Rabiu Kwankwaso, in Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole vs. Godwin Obaseki, in Delta, James Ibori vs. Ifeanyi Okowa, and in Lagos, Bola Tinubu vs. Akinwunmi Ambode.

The sociology of godfatherism in Nigerian politics is a complex power game, and it is not restricted to anointed Governors. Even lawmakers and local government chairmen owe their emergence in public positions to the dexterity of Godfathers. This may involve the anointed godson being asked to enter into a covenant to hand over a percentage of state resources to the Godfather and his wife every month – in Lagos, they call it “Baba ke e pe”. The exponent of Amala politics in Oyo state fell out with Rasheed Ladoja because having assumed office, the latter did not see why he should continue to hand over 15% of state resources to Adedibu on a monthly basis. Occultism is also involved. Chris Uba took Chris Ngige to the Okija shrine stripped to his under-wears, to pledge that he will always be loyal to the master. When Chris Ngige reneged and began to assert himself, Chris Uba released photos from the dreaded Okjja shrine. Chris Ngige did not deny but he said he went to the shrine with his Bible – his own talisman! This is the level of decay and rank opportunism in Nigerian politics. People would do anything to be in power without working for it, and that is why there are so many dumb persons in the top most corridors of power.

We do not yet know what pact, Satanic or Godly that Sim Fubara entered into with his Godfather. Was he also taken to a shrine? Did he sell his soul to become Governor? What agreements did he reach with Wike? What code of honour did they both agree to which is now causing trouble? What can be established is that Fubara is a political creation of Nyesom Wike, who made him Government House Accountant, Permanent Secretary, Government House, and later Accountant General of the State. As his eight-year tenure came to a close, Wike decided that Fubara who had always been in charge of the Rivers state’ accounts should be rewarded with the biggest diadem, the Governorship of the state. During the campaigns, not many people knew Fubara, other than that he was the man Wike wanted to make Governor. Wike was all over the place campaigning for him. And he put him in office as a PDP successor, despite his own defiant relationship with their party at the National level. When opposition parties challenged Fubara’s election at the tribunal, Wike again stepped in. He must have trusted Fubara so much. The big mistake he made though is that he is a poor student of history and human nature, now projecting himself as a victim of his own contradictions. His critics have had cause to remind him that it is Karma at work. Even one Eze Eze who would never have dared to talk back at Wike in his glorious season as Rivers Governor is now talking. Wike used to tell traditional rulers to shut up publicly, and they would literally shut up and say “Yes sir,” on top of it.

Relationships between Godfathers and their anointed candidates have not always been rosy. In the aforementioned cases, the Godsons always managed to get the Godfathers off their backs. Ladoja fought all the way to the Supreme Court and he was reinstated. Obaseki watered down Oshiomhole’s influence. Ganduje clamped down on the Kwankwasiyya Movement and drove Kwankwaso out of Kano. The latter’s attempt at a return is currently the cause of trouble in Kano State. The only Godfather that seems to have survived would be Bola Tinubu of Lagos. He is probably the most ruthless of all the Godfathers. He has been described as a man who knows how to identify and groom talents, but when the same persons try to assert themselves, he crushes them without batting an eyelid. Babatunde Raji Fashola as Governor and Tinubu’s successor had ideas of his own, and he was making tremendous impact and taking credit. He had to be reminded that he could not outshine the master. Somehow, he survived. Akinwunmi Ambode, a Fulbright scholar, first class brain, who succeeded Fashola was not so lucky. He was denied a second term because the Godfather got tired of him. Nigerian Godfathers are not looking for scholars and first-class brains. They want slaves and yes boys and girls. For example, when Umo Eno, the incumbent Governor of Akwa Ibom State became Governor, he, 59, knelt down before Udom Emmanuel, 57, to pledge his allegiance. In Kogi State, after the November 11 off-cycle Gubernatorial election in the state won by Ahmed Usman Ododo, Governor Yahaya Bello’s anointed candidate, he and his elected Deputy took their certificates of return to the Governor, knelt and bowed before him in a show of gratitude. Nobody knows what the relationship would be tomorrow in Kogi and Akwa Ibom states between the Godfathers and their “anointed successors”. The whole idea of anointment is a mockery of Nigeria’s democratic process. Where are the people?

The catalyst for the trouble in Rivers state is perhaps because Fubara showed his hands too early. Within six months of assuming office, hell had been let loose, and he had burnt the bridge that brought him to power. Is there a lesson here about the character of godsons in Nigerian politics? When they want power, they are every shade of humility. Ganduje was so humble and loyal, Kwankwaso could never have suspected him. In Fubara’s case, pro-Wike actors in the conflict allege that a certain unnamed woman is the one pushing Fubara to fight the Godfather and assert himself. Nigerian politics is the strangest theatre of the absurd, worse than what Martin Esslin who wrote a book on the subject taught us. Whatever that woman brings to Fubara’s table must be very strong indeed! However, Fubara’s supporters argue that there is trouble, not because Fubara, an ordinarily obedient person, wants to burn bridges, but because as they say in street parlance, Wike’s own is “too much”. He is accused of breathing down too hard on Fubara’s neck. It is alleged that all the appointees in the Rivers government are direct appointees of the Godfather with express instructions to spy on Fubara and checkmate him. Wike, it is further alleged even as former Governor still approves projects and expenditures. Fubara as Governor is not allowed to travel out of the state without Wike’s permission. His wife is also not allowed to attend functions. State vehicles bought with tax payers’ money are all controlled by Wike from Abuja. In the wake of the crisis, nine commissioners have since resigned from the cabinet, reportedly on Wike’s instructions, and just take a look at the portfolios: Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Works, Finance, Special Projects, Transport, Housing, Environment, Education, and Social Welfare and Rehabilitation. Who else is reporting directly to the Governor? The trouble reached a turning point over the weekend when Hon. Boma Goodhead, representing Asari Toru/Akuku Toru Federal Constituency publicly accused Wike of making away with state resources to the tune of about $300 million that came from Shell, and for fleecing the state of N9 billion monthly. Goodhead has called on the Department of State Services, the EFCC and the Police to do the needful and arrest Wike. She has also called on President Bola Tinubu to call Wike, his Minister to order.

The Wike-Fubara: “if you Wike me, I will Fubara you, dey your dey, nobody worry nobody” saga has polarized Rivers state along ethnic and political lines. Even if the dust settles, the effect will linger. Those who once argued that Fubara was Igbo have now all queued up behind him as a symbol of the Ijaw nation, with the Ijaw Youth Council, and the Ijaw National Congress threatening that any attempt to remove Fubara from office would amount to an assault on the Ijaw nation. Professor Benjamin Okaba has boasted publicly that Ijaws are not scared of Wike and if he tries anything against Fubara, there would be fire. Similarly, the Rivers Council of Leaders and Elders, and the leader of the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Chief E. K. Clark have issued statements asking Tinubu to call Wike to order. Hon. Goodhead accuses Wike of having everybody in his pocket: the judiciary, the security agencies, INEC, the Chief of Staff and the President himself. Wike’s pocket must be very big indeed. I am surprised how he still manages to walk around, with that much heavyweight under his control. He says however that he is only protecting his political structures, and Fubara who never bought a form to become Governor must stop hobnobbing with his enemies in the state. Fubara says he is Governor and he wants to be respected.

And yet Wike was not always like this. I knew him as Minister of State for Education, and later substantive Minister in the Goodluck Jonathan administration. The Wike of those days cut the picture of a perfect gentleman. I used to visit him at home in his Asokoro residence, we lived in the same neighbourhood. He was a great, affable host. There was always something to eat and chew by the pool side or in his main living room. “Olorun sa maa je ki won fi eran dindin ati peppersoup gbe mi lo o!” The moment Wike became Governor in Rivers state, the reports about him in the public domain, the controversies that he generated and the Hitlerite manner in which he rode roughshod over the state can only be explained off as what too much money and power does to people. He also became powerful beyond Rivers. He took over the control of the PDP. The party having lost power at the centre in 2015, Wike was the only surviving Governor who took it upon himself to finance the party and kept it alive. Other PDP Governors couldn’t be bothered.

In 2022/3, Wike decided to call in his goodwill, only to be resisted by other stakeholders in the party. He promised that having not allowed a Southerner to be the party’s Presidential flagbearer, by which he meant himself, the PDP would lose the 2023 Presidential election. He divided the party, openly hobnobbed with the APC, and he had his way. He has been rewarded by President Tinubu for this with the portfolio of the Minister of the FCT. His own party has been very quiet about his brazen anti-party activities. He has dared the party to whip him into line if it can. In the present instance in Rivers, it is said that he is the main author of the trouble that has led to the reported plans to impeach Governor Fubara, the division of the state House of Assembly into two factions: Fubara group of 5, vs. the Wike group of 26, with the former arguing that with the latter defecting to the rival APC, they are automatically no longer members of the House. Today, there is a lawyer on every street corner of Port Harcourt interpreting Section 109 (1)(g) of the 1999 Constitution and quoting precedents from FEDECO vs. Goni to Abegunde vs. Ondo State House of Assembly. The judiciary has also been dragged in with reports of forum shopping, leaked judgments and ex parte orders. The State House of Assembly has since been demolished by the Fubara government. Perhaps the crisis will be resolved, in the long run, at the law courts if commonsense does not prevail.

Certainly not by President Tinubu. Badly-behaved politicians should stop calling on President Tinubu to come and help them solve problems that they have created in their states. He is President, not a Headmaster or Supervisor. He intervened in Ondo state twice, but the problem was resolved only when the rule of law was obeyed. Rivers people should leave him alone. Kano people should stop bothering him. Go and put your house in order. Do not turn Tinubu into a dictator and then, return later to complain that Nigeria is a federal system.

The biggest story in Nigeria at the moment is the size of Nigeria’s delegation to the Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Summit on Climate Change, otherwise known as COP 28. In simple terms, the objective of the Conference of Parties is to secure multilateral, bilateral agreements on the consensus by a panel of international, intergovernmental, climate change scientists (IPCC) that for our world to be save, global temperatures must be kept at a level not above 1.5C, as adopted in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, beyond which the whole world will be at risk. Before this year’s conference, it was disclosed in a UN Report that the world was indeed endangered and that the threshold could go beyond 2 degrees C. By September 2023, the world had exceeded the projected limit, far above pre-industrial levels.

This was meant to put pressure on world leaders to pay more attention to the threats of carbon emission, climate change, and the impact on human communities, that is challenges induced within the global ecosystem by the rise in sea levels, hurricanes, floods and environmental disasters, occasioned by man’s abuse of and neglect of the environment: man-made, man-conditioned environmental crisis. Climate adaptation, carbon markets, and climate financing are issues that have been atop the global agenda in the last three and more years. UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, said the “emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon”.

From COP 26 in Glasgow, Scotland, to COP 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, the Africa Climate Week organized by the African Development Bank Group in Nairobi, Kenya, in September 2023 (Africa’s 11th Conference on the subject), and now the COP 28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the goal has been to keep global warming to a limit of 1.5C or 2 C.– the second threshold in the Paris Agreement. High income countries account for the bulk of green-house gas emissions. At COP 26, commitments and pledges were made across the public and private sectors. At COP 27, in Egypt last year, many key arrangements remained unresolved, especially the demand by the developing countries for a loss and damage fund to compensate low-income nations. The main achievement of this year’s event would be the resolve on Day One to agree on a loss and damage deal for green-house gas emissions. Payments are to be made into the fund on a voluntary basis. The World Bank will host the fund for four years on an interim basis. A number of countries have already made pledges: Germany ($100 m), UAE ($100m), United States ($17.5 m) and Japan ($10 m). It is still a far cry from what is required, but it is a historic, hard-fought achievement.

For good reason, Nigeria is a participant at COP 28. We showed up in 2021at COP 26, where during the presentation of National Statements, President Muhammadu Buhari pledged Nigeria’s commitment to a net-zero emission policy. Buhari was not in Egypt for COP 27, the country was represented by Mohammed Abdullahi who was then Minister of Environment. This year at COP 28, Nigeria’s new President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is fully on the ground in Dubai for the World Climate Action Summit scheduled for a total of 13 days – November 30 to December 12. President Tinubu has been very active, participating at high level sessions where he has shared the platform with world leaders including the COP 28 President, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, former US Vice President and Climate Change activist, John Kerry and the Chinese Envoy on Climate Change. President Tinubu has also met on the sidelines with Chancellor Olaf Scholz with whom he discussed Nigeria’s energy needs and the need to deepen collaboration with Germany, Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, President William Ruto of Kenya, President of Namibia, Hage Geingob, and climate activist and philanthropist, Michael Bloomberg. He has made statements about Nigeria’s commitment to end gas flaring, reduce carbon footprint and commit not just to an energy mix, but an eco-friendly future driven by sustainable, alternative energy to turn Nigeria into an investment friendly environment for carbon market investments. He has also been using every opportunity to ask for collaboration with other nations. At the African Green Industrialization session on Saturday, President Tinubu further made a strong case for Nigeria and Africa.

It is most unfortunate, however, that Nigeria’s participation which should have turned out as one of President Tinubu’s major outings on the international scene from the perspectives of economic diplomacy and sovereignty affirmation, has now been marred, irretrievably by reports of Nigeria’s large delegation at the conference- the largest from Africa, the fourth largest globally after the host country, UAE, Brazil and China, attending a 13-day event. There has been some quibbling and tittle-tattle over the exact size of the delegation. I am familiar with that. In our time, when the Naira exchanged for less than N150 to the dollar, and Nigeria was a high performing economy in Africa, with an annual GDP growth of over 6%, Sahara Reporters constantly complained about the size of the President’s delegation to conferences.

If the number was anywhere near 30, Sahara Reporters would raise an alarm, and if I called to complain about a deliberate attempt to de-market the country and the Presidency, the publisher Omoyele Sowore would tell me that he was an Ijaw man who had no reason to de-market his own brother, and that in any case he had a copy of the delegation list. I put it all down to sabotage from within. But this time the situation is slightly different. The information out there in the public domain about President Tinubu’s delegation to Dubai is extracted by the analysts from the COP 28 website, and from reports by Statisense, a leading AI data company, and instructively from State House list. Whereas the details and figures may differ just slightly, what is clear is that Nigeria has a total delegation of 1, 411 persons in Dubai for COP 28. One newspaper reported that the main delegation travelled to Dubai in three plane loads – chartered flights, and the worst part of it is that the Nigerian government did not give the contract for the air freight to any domestic airline.

The total cost of the air ticket for the 590 delegates on the Federal Government’s account is estimated at N880 million. To be added unto this is the vast expenditure on hotel accommodation and estacodes. In a Statisense report, estacode per night for a Minister is $900, Special Adviser $800, Director General of MDAs - $900, House of Representatives member - $900… and so on. The only category that I did not see is the estacode for mistresses, family members and confidantes who according to the opposition parties, notably the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) are all over Dubai as delegates. Ovieteme George, Arise News Correspondent reporting from Dubai, has claimed that he has not seen most of the delegates at key events that he has covered so far, not even at the Nigerian Pavilion: at most, the President and a few persons are the active ones at the event. Our investigative journalists would do well to check the shopping malls of Dubai, or cozy hotel rooms where far more pressing and important climate change discussions may be taking place among Nigerians!

Debo Ologunagba, speaking for the PDP has complained about an “over-bloated delegation” brimming with “cronies, political minions and mistresses at huge expense to the nation”. Peter Obi says Nigeria’s capacity to compete with China should be in the area of productivity, rather than the waste of resources on delegates to conferences, junkets, as well as unnecessary ceremony and showmanship as a mode of government behaviour - at a time more Nigerians are living in multi-dimensional poverty. Waziri Atiku Abubakar, PDP Presidential candidate, says Tinubu is in Dubai for an “owambe” party, an all-comers jamboree, that is ridiculous and indicative of a lack of governance, awareness and responsibility. The only voice of protest that I have not heard is that of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) who have been championing the call for accountability in the management of state resources. Someone has since whispered to me that they too may have their representatives in Dubai as part of the COP 28 party!

The tone of the response by the Federal Government is to dismiss the protests as opposition gimmickry. I doubt if this is politics. Temitope Ajayi, spokesperson to the President, was the first to offer a defence along the line that most of the delegates in Dubai are from the private sector and civil society organizations who paid their way to the conference to promote their respective causes, and that in any case, it is standard practice for all delegates to be registered against their country of origin, in addition to Nigeria being the most populous country in Africa. Ajayi was responding to reports that the Nigeria Council on Climate Change has 54 persons in Dubai, 53 from the Ministry of Environment, 36 from the National Assembly, and the Presidency- 138 and so on and so forth, making a total of 590 on the government list. Yesterday, the Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris fouled up the waters further in a press statement, in which he argued funnily that the Federal Government-sponsored delegation “is made up of a total of 422 persons.” He even tried to revise the breakdown in an even funnier manner. Would anyone ask the Minister, what exactly is the difference between 422 and 590? Can he tell Nigerians the difference between Okeke and Okereke? Sometimes, it is better for our leaders to keep quiet than to open their mouths and embarrass government. Minister Idris obviously does not get the point. He even mixed up the numbers in trying to “set the records straight”.

COP 28’s official published list says more than 97, 000 participants are attending COP 28 in person. In order to justify his spin, he cuts the number to “more than 70, 000”! Very bad optics. African leaders have often been criticized for rushing to any International Conference to mark the attendance register whereas they should be insisting that some of these conferences should be held in Africa. This year, Morocco has sent a delegation of 823 persons to Dubai, Kenya, 765; Tanzania 763, Ghana, 618! Nigeria has a low GDP compared to other countries, the country’s currency is over N1, 000 to the US dollar, inflation is 27. 33%, Nigeria is planning to borrow almost 100% to fund its 2024, 27.5 trillion, budget. Nigeria has now been said to have the same number of delegates with China in Dubai but while China is the second largest economy in the world, Nigeria runs a bankrupt economy. It is so bad that Nigeria imports traditional African batik, popularly known as adire and cassava flakes, garri, that our grandmothers used to produce from China! We even import toothpicks, and yet we have 1, 411 persons attending a conference in Dubai spending to help build the UAE economy. The Tinubu administration tells Nigerians to tighten their belts and make necessary sacrifices for the country to regain and restore hope.

Our leaders must lead by example. Malawi is not in Dubai this year. This is because its President, Lazarus Chakwera, in November, decided to suspend all foreign trips by himself and government officials till March next year. He cancelled his attendance at COP 28 as part of a number of austerity measures that he announced. Malawi recently took a four-year loan from the IMF – about $170 million. The country also devalued its currency, the Kwacha, by 44%. The country faces a cost-of-living crisis. The President says the country needs to save money, and the responsibility for doing so includes every one in government. In Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema, upon assumption of office, refused to collect salaries for eight months, stating that he was more interested in serving the people. He refused to buy new cars for the Presidency. These are living examples for Nigerian leaders to emulate. Most of our people in Dubai COP 28 at government expense have no business being there. We can only hope that all the 1, 411 persons attending the party in Dubai will return home and not use the opportunity of the UAE visa to “Japa.” When all is said and done, Nigeria must institute regular mental health checks for public officials. I simply cannot understand why as part of the main highlights of Nigeria’s participation at COP 28, top executives of two government agencies with headquarters in Abuja - the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) are in Dubai to sign a joint Memorandum of Understanding and make a song and dance out of it. This is the very height of buffoonery and stupidity!

Now, the main event itself: the success of COP 28 would depend on what language is used in the final agreement – whether there would be an agreement to “phase out” fossil fuels or to “phase down”. This is one of the most controversial issues at COP 28 despite the fact that 100 countries already support a phase-out of fossil fuels. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told COP 28 last Friday that “the science is clear…Not reduce. Not abate. Phase out with a clear time frame.” Many other countries have a different attitude. UAE’s Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President of COP 28 was not joking at all when he thundered at a high-level meeting that there is “no science behind the demands for a phase-out of fossil fuels.” His country is in fact planning to ramp up oil production. He insists that a phase-out decision would block sustainable development.

Some progress may have been made with regard to loss and damage funding, Article 6, climate adaptation/financing, but the looming failure to reach a consensus on the future of fossil fuels by December 12 may well be the major story of COP 28. Other countries may not have voiced their hypocrisy openly but there are many of the privileged, developed countries, and Big Oil companies that are just window-dressing on climate issues and the scale of the energy transition. In September, the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak did a U-Turn on net zero emissions. He had earlier approved 100 new licences for oil and gas drilling for the North Sea. Green groups in the UK were aggrieved; they subsequently launched an attack on his North Yorkshire home. He could not be bothered. It should therefore not be surprising that the UK has pledged just a mere $60 million to the loss and damage fund. The US even did worse: $17.5 million, and Japan - $10 million. Payments to the Fund are voluntary, keeping the devil at the centre of the details.