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![[OPINION] A World Of Godfathers - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/6d66582218d28730d47a7b9a32e18004_L.jpg?t=20250304_101226)
“Have you been following the developments at the Lagos State House of Assembly?”
“High wire politics. Power Game. Man pass man. Man pass woman. Two Speakers in 50 days. Perfect material for a Nollywood film”
“Omo… as in …!”
“But I think the state lost the opportunity of having a female Speaker of the House for the first time in history.”
“That has already been established. History has been made It is now on record that Mrs Mojisola Meranda once served, no matter how briefly, as Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly. She has broken the jinx. But the whole drama is not about gender balancing, or gender equity, it is about following due process and respecting the power calculus in the state.”
“The Constitution is very clear. It says in Section 92 (2) that the members of the House shall choose their own Speaker and Deputy Speaker from among themselves. Which also means that they have the right to appoint and remove whoever they put in those two positions. The Speaker in particular is only first among equals, not the Babangida of the Assembly”
“I think we have to leave the Constitution out of this. This is about power and influence. Speaker Mudashiru Obasa has just shown that he is not anybody’s mate in that House.”
“What kind of talk is that? They are all colleagues. Even Obasa himself says the people who removed him as Speaker behind his back are his brothers and sisters”
“And you believe that? Did you not see all the drama? Brothers and sisters who voted against him, held press conferences to condemn him and openly humiliated him at every turn. Is that how a brother treats another brother?”
“It is part of the price anybody in a leadership position has to pay. Obasa has been Speaker for 10 years. I think the whole drama should be a wake-up call for him. He must have learnt some lessons about his environment and more lessons about politics.”
“I understand now that he has been reinstated, he is also expected to resign in the days to come and another person from Lagos West will be chosen as Speaker”
“I don’t think so. Nobody wins a battle and gives away the spoils of victory. I see him sitting firmly on that seat till 2027. He may even return as Speaker after the next House of Assembly elections. The people who have lost out are the people who opposed him.”
“How? They are properly elected representatives of the people. They owe their constituency a responsibility to make laws for the good governance of the state.”
“You are very sure they were elected by the people?”
“Yes, of course”
“In this Lagos state?”
“Elections were held. People trooped out to vote in the various constituencies. Other parties took part in the elections”
“I hear you. But go and write it down, most of those lawmakers who opposed Obasa and refused to listen to the directives of the Godfather, they and their Baba Sope sponsors, will be pushed out before the 2027 general elections.”
“This is a democracy. They have the right to express themselves.”
“Yes. Freedom of speech. But that will not guarantee their re-election. I imagine they will be on all fours now, begging, pleading for mercy.”
“Mercy from whom? I thought you said the Speaker of the House is only first among equals.”
“Yes. But this is a clear case of my Godfather is bigger than yours. What those 36 lawmakers in Lagos State did was to embarrass Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Godfather of Lagos politics, and the President of Nigeria. For a whole month, they portrayed Lagos State as a wild part of Western Nigeria. Very bad optics. All of a sudden, the President looked as if he had lost control of his own state. This is a man who has been called upon to look into the crisis in Rivers and Osun states. With his own political family, the APC in Lagos engaged in street fighting, what moral right does he have to provide leadership in the political crisis in other states?”
“It is democracy, though.”
“It is not part of democracy for you to expose your leader, and the President of Nigeria to ridicule and not expect consequences.”
“Okay. Okay. Obasa is back. Mojisola Meranda has also been returned to her former position as Deputy Speaker. The status quo ante bellum has been restored. Now, going forward, what the people of Lagos State need is peace, not in-fighting by their lawmakers. Obasa must find a way of working with other members of the House, particularly Deputy Speaker Meranda. He is a leader. He cannot afford to isolate himself. He has proved his point and his value. I understand he is the political leader of Alimosho political constituency. Nobody can become Governor of Lagos State without winning that Constituency. It is the largest political constituency in Lagos State, Nigeria and the whole of Africa!”
“Fine. But have you asked yourself why all of this will happen and the Governor of Lagos State did not nip the crisis in the bud? He allowed the crisis to fester.”
“No, I disagree. What do you expect him to do? When it is convenient, we talk about separation of powers. When politics and expediency merge, we abandon principles and blame others. You do me, I do you, God no go vex. When Obasa publicly humiliated Governor Jide Sanwoolu, kept the man waiting for five hours when he went to present the Budget for 2025, and humiliated him further by saying he too could be Governor, that kind of behaviour has consequences too.”
“So, this is all about ego then? Tinubu gets thoroughly embarrassed because of the ego of his own boys? I hope Sanwoolu knows that allowing Tinubu to be embarrassed under his watch could have consequences too. We may just not have seen the end of the tragi-comedy in Lagos state”
“What annoys me, to tell the truth, is that the fight is not about principles. I have read stories indicating that the Lagos lawmakers turned against Obasa because he was not giving them enough money. One of them even said the Speaker refused to pay his hospital bills when he took ill.”
“Well, that is some useful information for the voters in Lagos. Their lawmakers just want to share money. It is about their personal pockets, not democracy. It is shameful. No. It is not shameful. It is worse than shameful. I said ego. You talk about money. In Igbo language, money is actually EGO. You see, we are actually saying the same thing.”
“I just think that President Tinubu should watch it. There is trouble in Lagos State. There is tension in Osun State. Two states in the South West, his own region of the country. In both places, the President’s party, APC, is the problem.”
“APC again?
“Yes. APC. In July 2022, then Governor Gboyega Oyetola, Tinubu’s cousin had conducted elections into Local councils without giving the mandatory one-year notice required by the Electoral Law of the state. He gave a 40-day notice. Adeleke, not yet elected Governor, went to court. The APP too. The Federal High Court, Akure declared the local council elections null and void. The elections held and of course the APC won every single seat. Adeleke, now Governor, refused to recognize that election. The APC local council chairmen who had been elected fought the matter all the way to the Court of Appeal sitting in Akure. The Court of Appeal recently ruled on two grounds (a) notice of election and (b) the time of filing the suit by the PDP, and dismissed all other prayers as academic. The Court gave no consequential orders, no reinstatement order, and did not upturn the judgment of the Federal High Court.”
“I am listening”
“It was a 53-page judgment. On the basis of this, the Adeleke administration organized fresh local council elections on the order of a court. The APC council men claim they are the legitimate council officials. Local council officials are on strike in the state. Tension everywhere.”
“I get it. I get it. The APC officials are misinterpreting the court ruling because they have a Godfather in Abuja “
“I have not said it is Tinubu pulling the strings in Osun oh”
“No. I get it. I read stories showing that the Attorney General of the Federation gave instructions to the Osun State Governor to recognize the APC agitators. The Inspector General of Police also supported the AGF’s directive. AGF plus IGP on one matter equal to Tinubu when you do your calculations. Simple logic.”
“I just know that peace should be allowed to reign in Osun. The APC National Chairman, Dr Abdullahi Ganduje, once boasted after the Ondo state governorship election in 2024, that the APC will take over Oyo and Osun states in the next elections. I hope this is not the sign that we are beginning to see: the grand plan by the APC to create a political homogeneity in the South West.”
“Court rulings must be respected. The rule of law must prevail.”
“I believe you will say the same about Rivers State where the Supreme Court has upheld the defection of the pro-Wike, anti-Fubara 27-man Amaewhule faction in the Rivers State House of Assembly from the PDP to the APC, and has also ruled that the state can no longer get Federal allocations until Governor Simi Fubara re-presents the state’s 2025 budget to the Martins Amaewhule faction. The court also nullified the local government election conducted last year by Fubara. I see Governor Fubara has been putting up a bold face, commissioning one project after the other. The truth is that he has been thoroughly humiliated. Minister Nyesom Wike has won.”
“I am more concerned about the people of Rivers State. It looks like it is the people of Rivers State who have lost out. But I really cannot comment on the judgment of their Lordships until I see the Certified True Copy (CTC) of their submissions. I am confused. What are they saying for example about the precedent in Abegunde v Ondo State House of Assembly which they decided in 2015, and what the Constitution says in Sections 68(2) and 109(1)(g) on the illegality of cross-carpeting? Those are the core issues.”
“Hmm. The jungle has finally matured. Fubara is about to be taught a lesson for standing up to his Godfather. It is the same thing. Do you think he will now be impeached? “
“It depends on how he plays his game. He may just have to respect the unfavourable Supreme Court judgment and find a way to go and beg Wike in Abuja. He has already directed his own local council chairmen to hand over to the heads of administration in their councils, effective March 3. The former pro-Wike local council chairmen whose tenure was extended by six months are on their way back to office.”
“But I hear members of the South-South Elders Forum are advising Fubara not to beg anybody, because they will not. I think those elders should just go and sit down somewhere. They are the same elders who pushed Fubara to this point of humiliation.”
“Not a fair comment. The elders are saying that Wike is no longer Governor of Rivers State and he cannot continue to run riot over the state from Abuja. After the Supreme Court judgment, Wike held a thanksgiving session in his house. Please how can one man constitute himself into such a nuisance? He is a threat to democracy in Rivers.”
“He has a big Godfather. It is President Tinubu who is indulging him. He knows he has the President behind him. The President himself praised him on live television. We all know that. Wike might as well do what he likes with Rivers state.”
“Is that democracy? Godfathers everywhere. Even in the National Assembly.”
“I have not seen the hands of any Godfather in the National Assembly, at least not in the recent salacious case of cuckoldry allegations by Senator Natasha Akpoti”
“That’s another material for Nollywood. Except that it is not funny. We cannot afford to have a National Assembly that spends its time again and again having to deal with a House of Representatives member who beats up a woman at a sex toy shop, a Senate President who gets accused by Joy Nunieh, and now a married female Senator alleging that the Chairman of the National Assembly, the same Senator Godswill Akpabio was making sexual overtures to her and harassing her.”
“I agree with the former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki in the matter. We should be more worried about the integrity of the institution. We must rescue that institution. Our National Assembly must not become a comedy house of errors. The matter should be referred to the Ethics Committee of the Senate and both parties must submit themselves to the authority of that Committee. Senator Natasha Akpoti says she has evidence. She who alleges must prove. Simple”
“Nothing will come out of it. You want to bet? This is the point. Senator Akpabio has a Godfather that is bigger.”
“Who is that?”
“Who else? And as for Senator Akpoti, except she brings out that concrete evidence she claims she has, she should begin to prepare for worse humiliation in that Senate. I hear the other Senators are actually making jest of her. They are saying even if a mosquito, the male anopheles, hovers too closely around Senator Akpoti, she will scream that the mosquito is sexually harassing her, and go to court. She alone, Governor Yahaya Bello, then Reno Omokri, and now the Senate President. Next time she uses that trope, nobody will pay attention to her.”
“You are taking sides.”
“No. Just thinking aloud…I also heard that the male lawmakers in the National Assembly have all resolved that if Senator Akpoti smiles at them, they will never smile back!”
“Ha Ha. You kept making this point about Godfathers. It is not only in Nigeria though. Look at the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. He went to the United States, looking for the Godfather’s support against Russia. For merely expressing an opinion about Putin, he was openly humiliated by President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. I have never seen a thing like that. The President of a sovereign nation tongue-lashed like that? Even his dressing was questioned and he was ordered to leave the White House.”
“Godfathers are not always nice. When you stand up to them. They crush you. I thought that was a diplomatic blunder by the way. Why conduct public policy and diplomacy on live television? I pitied Zelensky. He and his country were made to look small. And America first.”
“He was humiliated. He learnt his lesson. Beware of the Godfather.”
![[OPINION] Babangida’s Book - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/4452414e756ce827f8bc4b72b9376062_L.jpg)
The most important event in Nigeria in the last week has been the publication and public presentation in Abuja, of a book titled A Journey in Service: An Autobiography of Ibrahim Babangida. In many ways, this should be perfectly understandable. General Babangida was Nigeria’s military ruler (1985-1993), although he styled himself President, to show as he argues in this book, his preference for the Presidential system of government. Since he “stepped aside” as he claimed in 1993, and with rumoured and failed attempts to “step back” in 2007, IBB, as he is known has remained topical and controversial in Nigerian politics. The big things around his neck include the assassination of Newswatch journalist, Dele Giwa in October 1996 and the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Presidential election, which he has now openly admitted was won by Chief MKO Abiola (pp. 390 - 391).
General Babangida argues that “this is not a book about finding blame, inventing excuses or whitewashing known facts.”(p. xv). But that is precisely what the book is all about, for the most part. This is certainly not the first attempt to write General Babangida into the positive side of history, such enterprise has been quite an industry over the years for a number of intellectuals and non-intellectuals alike. The basic references in this regard would include Chidi Amuta’s Prince of the Niger: The Babangida Years, published in 1992 by Dr. Yemi Ogunbiyi’s Tanus Communications. Interestingly, both Drs Amuta and Ogunbiyi are acknowledged in this book as two of Babangida’s friends who encouraged him to write A Journey In Service. The story is even more interesting with the reference to Dr. Chidi Amuta who after the annulment of the June 12 election, had written what sounded like a renunciation of Prince of the Niger in a scathing re-appraisal of Babangida’s Presidency. Dr. Amuta, like the alleluia chorus of praise-singers who attended the presentation of this book in Abuja, have with the benefit of hindsight, rediscovered their “Prince of the Niger.”
This was the same man the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), the Nigerian media, civil society and others described as “Maradona” or “the evil genius. The hypocrisy that we have witnessed, the gutless amnesia on display speaks to the hollowness of the Nigerian character. History is written by the living and if you live long enough, you would find a ready audience for your side of the story. Students of the Babangida story in our national life should also remember the book, Foundations of a New Nigeria by Sam Oyovbaire and Tunji Olagunju, and Transition to Democracy in Nigeria (1985 – 1993) by Tunji Olagunju, Adele Jinadu and Sam Oyovbaire (1993). When Babangida turned 65 on August 17, 2026, two groups – Initiative for Equal Co-Existence and IBB for President Organisation organised a four-day carnival-like event in Abuja to celebrate him. The newspapers were awash with adverts and Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, his first Minister of External Affairs, delivered a friendly lecture.
What is new is that this is the first time, apart from media interviews in the past, that General Babangida is telling his own story in full detail, and the product is a 440-page book in Five Parts and 13 Chapters, with a prologue, an epilogue, acknowledgements and appendices. It is an interesting, intriguing and engaging personal narrative about his life and his “journey through Nigeria’s path to the public.” (p. xviii). Dedicated to his parents: Isha Aishatu and Muhammadu Badamasi, “our fallen heroes, my comrade in arms who fought gallantly to protect the unity of Nigeria” and his wife, Maryam Ndidi Babangida, the foreword is written by General Yakubu Gowon, Nigeria’s military Head of State, 1966 -1975. I consider the book an important and welcome contribution to the extant literature on Nigeria’s political, social and military history, written by a direct participant for more than three decades in that history, and whose perspectives shed more light on not just the general history of Nigeria but also the Nigerian military, the civil war, ethnic politics, coups and coup-making and the challenges of leadership and governance. Babangida enriches our knowledge and public discourse with his boldness to tell his story. This is an example that should be emulated by other Nigerian leaders, for it is from the interplay of narratives that a more robust context of our historical experience can be constructed for public enlightenment. I am however concerned that most of the persons who have been running commentaries on this book in the last few days sound typically Nigerian- commenting on a book they have not read, even when the full text was already in circulation on social media before the public presentation ended. There is more to this book than the civil war and June 12.
It is a sinful act of dishonesty and mental laziness for anyone to run commentaries on the basis of hearsay. Curiously, this is one book, whose open piracy has not attracted complaints about copyright and intellectual property rights. With about N17 billion donated at the book presentation and the launch of a proposed Babangida Presidential Library, the bulk of that donation done on behalf of “all Nigerians”, many think that the retired General is getting more than he deserves. Sometime in 2002, General Yakubu Gowon had publicly apologised to the people of Asaba over the 1967 Asaba massacre; on another occasion he apologised to Professor Wole Soyinka for his incarceration during the civil war. Perhaps, following this cue, Professor Soyinka during a visit to Kaduna prisons had remarked that Babangida owes Nigerians an apology for annulling the June 12, 1993 Presidential election. He does something close to that in this book, with caveats to which I shall return, but what is frightening is that rather than interrogate Babangida’s acceptance of responsibility for what went wrong, most of those who attended his recent Abuja event behaved and spoke as if it is Nigerians who owe Babangida an apology! This looked like they were dancing on Dele Giwa’s grave, and spitting at MKO Abiola’s tombstone.
In the first Three Parts of the book: Early Years, Early Military Career and Governance and Military Rule – The Murtala Muhammed Years - written in lucid and readable prose, the author leads us on a journey through his family background in Wushishi and Minna, how he came about the name Badamasi, and later Babangida, his early school years at the Gwari Native Authority Primary School, the death of his father, and how he ended up at Provincial Secondary School, Bida (founded in 1910), which later became Government Secondary School, Bida. He tells the stories of his teachers and also his classmates, and how his stocky physique and sporting skills earned him the nicknames - “Blockbuster and Kulele”. In November 1962, Babangida and some of his classmates including Garba Duba, Sani Bello, Mohammed Magoro, Gado Nasko and Mamman Vatsa were encouraged to join the military by their teacher, Papa Onimole (later Dr Adeyemi Onimole) and also by Captain Yakubu Gowon, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Alhaji Ibrahim Tanko Galadima and other Northern officials who visited their school. In December 1962, they were admitted into the Nigerian Military Training College (NMTC), founded in 1960, the precursor to the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA). The Northern political elite saw a future in the military for young Northerners and had actively mobilized them to become soldiers.
In Part Two, Babangida offers an insight into the early history of the Nigerian military and the training that he and his colleagues received at the NDA and the early friendships that he forged with others with whom his path crossed at the Academy. He and others received further training in India, at the India Military Academy, Dehradun now in Uttarakhand and returned to Nigeria in January 1964 as 2nd Lieutenant. In this part of the book, General Babangida gives an interesting account of the January 15, 1966 coup and the counter-coup of July 15, 1966, and the ethnic colouration that the events assumed, and this has been perhaps a controversial part of the book resulting in name-calling and abuses, which I find shocking and unnecessary. The author is accused of claiming that the January 15, 1966 was not an Igbo coup. He has been asked at what point did he arrive at that since he participated in the killing and marginalization of Igbos during the civil war and after. My own reading of the author’s submission is that the coup plotters of January 1966 were driven by ideology, rather than ethnic sentiments. They were idealists not ethnic gladiators. Major Kaduna Nzeogwu, who led the coup “was only Igbo in name”. He was born and raised in Kaduna and was “as Hausa as any!” (p.59). He was also the first Nigerian soldier with training in intelligence and in that position he and his colleagues were privy to the excesses of the political elite of the time. There were non-Igbo officers in the coup-making, and part of their plan was to release Chief Obafemi Awolowo and make him “the executive provisional president of Nigeria” (p. 60).
Babangida explains convincingly that the problem was what came after. It was an Igbo man, General Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi who emerged as Head of State after the January coup. This led to suspicions in the North that Igbos were planning to dominate Nigeria after killing prominent Northern leaders including the Sardauna and his wife and the much-loved Brigadier Zakariya Maimalari. The coup- makers were not punished, instead some of them were promoted. To worsen matters, the Aguiyi-Ironsi-led administration introduced the Unification Decree No. 34 of 1966 which Babangida says was “a significant disadvantage to Northern Nigeria” (p. 62). This infuriated young Northern soldiers who staged a counter-coup on July 28, 1966. There is not much that Babangida has said here that is unknown, either about the coups of 1966 or the Ironsi administration, but it is a measure of how deeply divided Nigeria is along ethnic lines that this has generated so much furore.
Subsequently, Babangida gives an account of the Nigerian civil war, the horrific circumstances that led to it, the blow out in the North and the massacre of Igbos, the Aburi Accord, and the beginning of the war. He was sent to the 1st Infantry Division in the Nsukka sector, under Colonel Muhammed Shuwa as sector commander. I doubt if anyone would disagree with the author’s conclusion about “the futility of war” (p. 66) or that “War is horrifying and painful. All wars erode human dignity in places and sometimes destroy the best in us and remain so for a long time.” (p. 95). Truly, Nigeria is yet to recover from that war that ended on January 15,1970. The scars remain. The country is still at war with itself. Part Three is devoted to the Murtala Muhammed Years. I find particularly useful here, the author’s reflections on “coup d’etats and the Nigerian military” (pp. 104 – 115) especially his submission that military interventions in politics are often prompted by the failure of the civilian leadership and the political class and that the military alone cannot be blamed; the civilian populace often invites and welcomes military interventions.
On August 27, 1985, Babangida emerged as Nigeria’s new Head of State after a bloodless coup that ousted Major General Muhammadu Buhari. In Chapter Six titled “Mounting the Saddle, Defining a Military Presidency” (pp. 137 – 170), he describes the circumstances of his emergence and his priorities in settling down to office. Chapter Seven – “Reforming the Economy: Privatisation, IMF, SAP and other matters” explains the open, free market, liberalization and privatization directions of his administration and the IMF loan debate which led to a home-grown Structural adjustment Programme (SAP). In Chapter Eight, Babangida reflects further on some of the highlights of the new socio-economic order that he introduced – People’s Bank, Community Banks, DFRRI, and MAMSER. Chapter Nine is focused on Foreign Policy – Nigeria’s leadership of ECOMOG, restoration of ties with Israel, Concert of Medium Powers, Hosting the OAU, and the Technical Aid Corps. In the foregoing, Babangida thus deals with the highlights of his stewardship and whereas many persons may pick issues with his economic policies and manipulative political engineering processes, no one could readily doubt the fact that he ran a hardworking, well-meaning, charismatic government. He recruited some of the brightest brains in the land, from every part of the country, creating a cult of pro-Babangida intellectuals and technocrats.
It is in Chapter 10 that the author finally arrives at the controversial issues of his tenure. He calls them “the challenges of leadership.” On each of the issues, he offers “excuses” that are either downright disingenuous or that may be legitimately considered insulting by the affected parties. He tries to rewrite history. On the death of Dele Giwa, he blames the Newswatch team for “playing to the gallery” (p. 226), the media for hysteria, and he plays the victim. Years later, the question is still being asked: Who killed Dele Giwa? He was President of Nigeria. He could not solve the riddle. On “The Vatsa Coup” (pp. 207 - 231), again Babangida plays the victim, relapsing into a schoolboy tirade about how Vatsa had always been envious of his achievements since their secondary school days! Babangida should repeat that to Hajiya Safiya, Vatsa’s widow and her children, and have a second look at a documentary titled “A Widow’s Pains, A General’s Burden” (2006). He also reflects on the Gideon Orkar Coup, the OIC palaver, the 1989 SAP Riots, and the C-130 Air Crash. Other issues are covered in an interview with TELL magazine reproduced as Appendix II (pp. 342-379). Chapter 11 is a well-considered tribute to his wife, Maryam - without doubt an outstanding First Lady, a memorable Juliet to Romeo IBB, and an accomplished citizen in her own right.
In Chapter 12, the book reaches its highest moment titled “Transition to Civil Rule and the June 12 saga.” Here, Babangida tries to whitewash his own story. He says he regrets the annulment of June 12 1993 election. Mistakes were made. And although he accepts responsibility, he wants it known that Abacha-led forces were the ones who suspended the announcement of the results and when the Presidential election was annulled, it was done without his knowledge. He claims he “had a duty to protect the country at all costs” (p. 288). In retrospect, it looks like the General. was so afraid of his own lieutenants, he was more interested in saving his own neck! His June 12 story is a confession of cowardice. Is he aware that many died and Nigeria suffered because of that annulment? Many years after him, a Goodluck Jonathan as President stopped an attempt by a certain Elder Godsday Orubebe to derail the announcement of the results of the 2015 Presidential election. Where a civil war hero turned President ran from his own troops, a civilian President stood firm and defended due process and the rule of law. It is all about character.
![[OPINION] Ayo Adebanjo and Alaperu Basibo: In Requiem - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/29f647f2f922ae7f6d08ba2b3025e7df_M.jpg?t=20250218_090618)
There are some people who should not die, because of their goodness, their humanism, the great impact that they make within the community, family and sometimes, the nation at large. The death of good men or women diminishes us, a part of us leaves with them, but what endures ultimately is the lesson of their example. Two of such good men departed one after the other, within the last two weeks in the South West of Nigeria: Oba Adeleke Adelekan Idowu Basibo, the Alaperu of Iperu, on February 5, 2025, and Pa Ayo Adebanjo, journalist, lawyer, nationalist, politician, activist, Afenifere leader, Awoist and patriot on February 14. The respective families have formally announced their transition to the Great Beyond. Both illustrious sons and titans of Ogun State extraction were well known to me. I feel a deep sense of personal loss, and hereby join others in commiserating with their families, the people of Remoland and Ijebuland, the people of Ogun State, the Afenifere, Obidents and everyone in the larger Nigerian community who was privileged to have encountered their person, influence, and benefitted from the grace of uncommon measure which the Almighty bestowed upon both leaders and which they used, at various levels for the benefit of mankind and for the elevation of the human spirit.
There can be no one involved in Nigerian public affairs, politics and society and particularly activism that would not know Chief Ayo Adebanjo. For more than 70 years, he was an active and colossal presence in Nigerian politics, first at the regional level as a disciple of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, as a chieftain of the Action Group and its successor political parties and at the national level, Adebanjo was one of the strongest advocates for a just, equitable and fair society anchored on the principles of federalism and progressive politics. He shunned elective offices and political appointments, he was however, a loyal party man. He remained loyal to Awoism till the end, and to Awo in life and in death, and the principles that the sage espoused. Such level of loyalty is uncommon in these parts; such single-minded devotion is rare. Pa Adebanjo has told his own story in great detail in an autobiography titled “Telling It As It Is” (Ibadan: Bookcraft, 2018, 257 pp.) which was presented publicly on the occasion of his 90th birthday on April 10, 2018 in his home-town of Isanya-Ogbo in the Ijebu Division of Ogun State. I was the official book reviewer at the occasion. I wrote then, as follows, inter alia:
“Born on April 10, 1928, barely six years after the Clifford Constitution and the first legislative elections in Nigeria, Adebanjo has lived through the finest and ugliest moments of Nigerian history: the constitutional processes, the struggle for independence, party politics leading to independence and after, the civil war, military rule, return to democracy, the struggle for the protection of democracy and civilian rule, and the bigger struggle of ensuring the survival and development of Nigeria. He joined the struggle early in 1943, as a Zikist, as a follower of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe but in 1951, he became a member of the youth wing of the Action Group, and a mentee and political disciple of late Chief Obafemi Awolowo. This became the defining moment of his life and 67 years later, he has remained faithful to the ideals of that political party and the ideology/political philosophy of his mentor - that is Awoism.
“As Adebanjo turns 90, what is to be celebrated is not necessarily his longevity, even if there may be lessons to be learnt from his life habits – he maintains a rigorous exercise regimen, a daily routine we are told which includes aerobic sessions, he neither smokes nor drinks, and for more than 60 years he has remained married to the same woman- but there are no hard and fast rules about longevity perhaps – some alcoholics live up to hundred, and some chronic womanisers outlive their own hubris- longevity, if I may essay a religious tone, is a matter of grace. Adebanjo has lived a true life of blessing and amazing grace.
“In 1962, during the travails of the Action Group and Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s trial for treasonable felony, Adebanjo was charged for felony, along with 30 others. He had to flee to Ghana. He has been detained more than once for his political beliefs, but this has not altered his resolve. Following the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election, which was won by Chief MKO Abiola of the then Social Democratic Party, Adebanjo was one of the chieftains of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO). He joined protests, stood at the barricades and made his voice heard. Members of the democratic coalition and other groups in civil society were shot at, harassed, humiliated and their family members were intimidated. Used to the dangers of a political life in a dangerous society, Adebanjo’s resolve remains unshaken, even in the winter season of his life.
“When he fled into exile in 1962, his father was arrested, detained and rough-handled by the state. Many of Adebanjo’s colleagues have died in the course of the struggle. Some moved to the other side of the fence. Others adjusted in later life. The very essence of Chief Adebanjo’s politics lies in his consistency, his unwavering commitment to ideas rather than opportunism, his courage in the face of fire and intimidation, the life of sacrifice that he has lived, and his loyalty to Awo and Awoism. On this last score, he may in fact be described as the last of the original Awoists.
“This emphasis on ideology, party politics, and Awoism is important, as an entry point into the interrogation of Chief Ayo Adebanjo’s politics. The kind of post-politics reality that has developed in Nigeria since the early 2000s has been a politics that is not driven by any ideology or principles or core beliefs, but by the desperate search for power by any vehicle possible. For this reason, there are many politicians in Nigeria today who cannot effectively articulate what exactly they believe in or stand for, and there are many of them who in less than a decade have used up to about five political platforms of disconcertingly contradictory impressions. This is probably the reason Chief Ayo Adebanjo has stayed away in the last few years from direct party politics. In 1951, he joined the Action Group, in the Second Republic, he was a member of the Unity Party of Nigeria, in the 90s, he was a member of the progressive democratic coalition; with the return to party politics in 1998, he was a member of the Alliance for Democracy which was more or less an Awoist party. When the AD seemed to have transmuted, or well, to have been compromised and something called the ACN emerged, Adebanjo kept his distance and functioned more as a leader of the Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group, which till date seems more committed to the Awoist ideology…”
This principled stand, this consistency, was ever more evident during the 2023 general elections in Nigeria, and also in the politics of the Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political group. Disagreements within the Afenifere led to Chief Ayo Adebanjo leading his own core group within the body, while Pa Reuben Fasoranti led the other group. Chieftains of Afenifere often insist that the body was never factionalised, but it was obvious that Awo’s group had broken up into two different tendencies. Adebanjo never played pack-politics. He was never afraid to stand alone. He was a man of courage and he found many admirers and followers for his convictions. In the lead up to the 2023 elections, for example, he supported the candidacy of Peter Obi, Presidential candidate of the Labour Party. He could not be persuaded to support his own kinsman, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) because he was convinced that it was the turn of Igbos to produce a Nigerian President in the spirit of equity and justice. Tinubu won and emerged as President but that did not stop Adebanjo from remaining an Obidient, as Obi’s supporters are known, till the very end of his life. He could not be intimidated by parochial, ethnic sentiments. Pa Adebanjo was a friend of the media. He was an interviewer’s delight and he was one of our regular go-to resource persons at Arise News. He had many friends among the younger generations. He was everyone’s Papa, always battle-ready to hold robust discussions on national issues, either through phone calls, media appearances or press statements. One of his younger colleagues in politics whom he had criticized frontally in his 2018 autobiography once advised him to go and take a rest from activism. It is to his eternal credit that he remained active on the public stage until his walking stick failed him. It is sad, however, that the Nigeria of his dream did not materialize in his lifetime. His death on February 14, a day devoted to love and loving, is an important message that he has left behind.
Alaperu Idowu Basibo, Apekun-Joye, Odoru V spent nearly 23 years on the throne of his ancestors. By March 30, 2025, he would have spent 23 years as the 21st Alaperu of Iperu Remo in Ogun State. I was his biographer – a book titled “Alaperu: The Crown and The Glory” (Lagos: The Sales Brothers, 2022, 203 pp.). What makes his death even more shocking was that a few days earlier, Kabiyesi and I had spoken on the phone. He wanted me to speak with someone on a particular matter and he had said I was too far away; I should try to keep in touch more often. When I received news of his passing a few days later, I kept asking Prince Bola Basibo, his son, whether this was meant to be a joke, because I had spoken with the monarch recently and he was in very high spirits. It wasn’t a joke. It was true. He was 67. Death is the most treacherous fact of life. Its finality reminds us of the finiteness of our mortality. The late Alaperu was a cosmopolitan man, well-cultured, committed to his people, and progressive. He was a modern monarch who had a Facebook page, and an Instagram page and who most actively supported the younger generation through a group called Iperu Millennials, a network of young men and women of Iperu-Akesan extraction who were encouraged by the town’s royal father to identify with their roots. They include the Sales Brothers, Oyinkan Fawehinmi, Tobi Fletcher (Ofada Boy), Olumide Soyombo, Christina Soname and a host of others. He was also a friend of the elderly members of the community whom he actively encouraged to invest in the town and promote it, notably the Odole Oodua, Sir Kessington A. Adebutu. Prince Dapo Abiodun, Modele Sarafa-Yusuf, and all the friends that the traditional ruler attracted to the community, too many to be counted.
Many Yoruba communities over the years have since added to Ifa consultations, and other considerations, a basic requirement that royal houses can only recommend for the throne, princes that are educated. Oba Basibo was a good example of having a man who can function in a modern setting as a traditional ruler. He was a graduate of The Polytechnic Ibadan, and the University College, London where he studied Marine Economics. He also obtained a Diploma in Shipping and Export Management from the Yaba College of Technology. He had risen through the ranks at the Customs and Excise Department and was an established socialite in Lagos, looking forward to further advancement in his chosen career as a Customs Officer before his family came to drag him to become a traditional ruler. It was an assignment that he eventually accepted with a determination to serve his people. In more than 22 years, Alaperu Basibo transformed the community from a rural settlement into a thriving investment destination, located within 50 miles from Lagos, an intersection between Abeokuta, Shagamu, and other towns such as Ogere, and Ode Remo. Kabiyesi Alaperu leaves behind a legacy of exponential growth and a standard that would be a source of inspiration and a challenge to whoever succeeds him from any of the other ruling houses – Amororo or Agbonmagbe in accordance with the Alaperu of Iperu Chieftaincy Declaration Law of 1958, and Section 20(1) of the Chiefs Law Cap 20 Law of Ogun State of Nigeria, 1978.
The late Alaperu believed that traditional rulers should be given a role to play in the governance process and given their closeness to the people, they can help maintain peace and stability within communities by resolving land disputes or other matters of potential conflict. “The Government may hand over instruments of office to traditional rulers but it is the people who choose their kings”, he said. He did not believe in the idea of traditional rulers getting involved in partisan politics. But he was an apostle of federalism and the restructuring of Nigeria, better still a regional government system as in the 1963 Constitution and a leadership recruitment process that throws up capable and trustworthy persons who can move the country forward. In a society where disco-dancing, oshomo moneybags have found their ways onto traditional stools, and their conduct has become a subject of derision, Alaperu Basibo will be remembered for carrying himself with much dignity and grace. Always well turned out, he had a kind word for every one that came across him. He brought respect to the Alaperu throne. He was a compulsive bridge-builder. He will be greatly missed. It now remains for the kingmakers in council – the Osugbo, Lopere and the Odi - to ensure that succession to the throne is rancour-free, and that the peace and stability that the late Alaperu restored to their “once warring community” and has left behind as part of his legacy is sustained.
Death is a debt that all living things owe, and which they must pay when called to the Celestial Lodge above. We are told in Psalm 89: 48 - “No one can live forever, all will die. No one can escape the power of the grave.” Ecclesiastes 8:8: says “None of us can hold back our spirit from departing. None of us has the power to prevent the day of death. There is no escaping that obligation, that dark battle.” Knowing this to be true about death, the public’s number one enemy, we must as a people of faith accept the fact of our own mortality, “momento mori”, and take solace in the worthy life of impact and illumination that Pa Adebanjo and Alaperu Basibo lived. Both men deserve to be celebrated and remembered. Their example should inspire the living. Thank you, sirs, for your friendship. Goodbye and goodnight…
![[OPINION].The Coming Food Revolution In Lagos - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/f0e6dbf155e463f366df4402ca7102d3_M.jpg?t=20250211_104847)
Over the years, a major received wisdom in Nigeria is that agriculture is the mainstay of the economy, its real foundation for creating employment, livelihood and opportunities. Truly, it was the case that Nigeria used to boast of a thriving agricultural economy in crop production, livestock, forestry and fishing, with every part of the country thriving agriculturally. The country has over 34 million hectares of arable land, and a net total area of 79 million hectares that can be cultivated, and an irrigable area of 3.14 million hectares. Between 1961 and the following decade, Nigeria’s economy was significantly propelled by agriculture, the exports from the sector generating over 40% of national revenue. Those were the days when the South West, the Western region as it then was, built cocoa plantations, agricultural extension settlements and commodity boards. In those days, the farmer was considered King - Agbe L’Oba in local parlance.
The tallest building in the Western region then was actually known as Cocoa House, built with agricultural revenue. Farmers were so powerful in the South West they even had an activist group named Agbekoya – meaning “the union of farmers who reject suffering”. It was a peasant revolt, led by ordinary farmers who were so powerful they rejected Federal Government taxation and state regulations of agricultural co-operatives. These farmers were so powerful they thought they should have a say in government policies, particularly taxation. Their wealth had helped to develop the region in terms of Awolowo’s education programmes and the development of infrastructure. In the North, there were groundnut pyramids, pyramid structures built by the likes of Alhassan Dantata, a prominent nut and cotton trader who oversaw exports of groundnuts to the Royal Niger Company. The pyramids were so central to Nigeria they found their way to the country’s postage stamp. In the Mid-West, there were rubber plantations. along a substantial stretch of the road from the West to the Mid-West.
The Middle Belt was known as the food basket of Nigeria, where everything that was edible could be cultivated, from livestock to tomatoes and yams. In the South-South, Nigeria produced a thriving fishing industry. Indeed, the country earned its spurs as one of the best countries in the world in agriculture: the world’s largest producer of cassava, yam, the second largest producer of sorghum, the fifth largest producer of palm oil and cocoa beans, and the third largest producer of peanuts and sweet potatoes. The country was so rich, it had enough food to feed itself and enough for exports. This is the same country today where food inflation is over 50% in some states. This is the same country where ordinary Nigerians complain about the high cost of food and survival. In the South West, they say “Ebi n pa wa” -meaning we are hungry. In this same country where a federal Minister, Alhaji Umaru Dikko, who was in charge of the Federal Government’s Committee on rice distribution in the 80s, once boasted that Nigerians were not eating from the dustbin because the government provided sufficient food, it is now a fact that Nigerians would be happy to eat from the dustbin. Even those dustbins are empty.
The cause of the problem first and foremost is that Nigeria found oil, and the economy moved away from agriculture to oil exploration and the petro-dollar that came with it. The new rulers of Nigeria in military uniform abandoned agriculture, the country’s economic mainstay. Oil brought so much wealth a former Head of State boasted that Nigeria’s problem was not money but how to spend it! The farmers left the rural farms and trooped to the urban centres to gain close access to their own share of the national cake of oil revenue. But Nigeria’s crude oil brought nothing but misery: it divided the country along ethnic and geographical lines, it created a new elite that chose rent collection as a way of life. The entire country became indolent. Agriculture was abandoned because it requires much thinking, preparation and hardwork. There have been efforts in the past to revive agriculture but every effort in that direction has not worked due to lack of commitment, absence of continuity, corruption, waste and poor organization. In 1976, in his first coming as Nigeria’s Head of State, President Olusegun Obasanjo introduced what he called “Operation Feed the Nation” to increase food production, healthy nutrition and promote farming. In 1979/80, the Shagari administration focussed on what was called the “Green Revolution”, to ensure food security. Between 1976 and 1980, there were also fertilizer distribution programmes. All of these initiatives, brilliant as they were on paper failed to achieve their objectives. By 2008, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was telling the Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) about his administration’s commitment to the Millenium Development Goals of nutrition security, poverty and hunger reduction, even if budgetary allocation to agriculture then was a mere 7%.
In order not to delay us with history, let us jump to the Jonathan administration, 2010 -2015 under which a blueprint for agricultural development was introduced and led by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina who before his appointment had been the Vice President of Policy and Partnerships for the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA). He had also worked as a senior economist at the West African Rice Development Association (WARDA), Ivory Coast. Adesina’s natural inclination as Minister was to revolutionize agriculture, turn it into a business and reinvent it. He was succeeded by Audu Ogbeh who threw away his blueprint and confused agriculture with politics. It is widely believed, in any case, that the Buhari administration was not keen about anything that required any measure of rigour. The agriculture value chain in Nigeria also suffered due to low budgetary allocation, lack of political will, politics, the fixation of the leaders with easy oil wealth. The problem has since been compounded by the effects of climate change, insecurity in the country which makes it difficult for farmers to get to their farms or feed their cattle, oil pollution in the Niger Delta which has destroyed aquatic life and the politicization of agriculture.
This is the setting that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inherited in 2023. Food inflation is the biggest problem in Nigeria today. Oil exploration has become problematic. There is no money to buy food. It is still the same land, but not enough to eat, and where food is available, it is costly. Tinubu has been talking about food security and the need for the states to work together with the Federal Government to address this national emergency. I find quality response from two states: the Niger State administration of Governor Umar Mohammed Bago, the farmer-Governor and the Chrislam who sings and leads Christian praise worship sessions despite being a Muslim. Besides singing Christian songs as a Muslim, Bago is investing heavily in agriculture. The other Governor is Babajide Sanwoolu of Lagos State, who is about to cause a food revolution in Lagos. The rest of this piece is devoted to the example of Lagos State and my recent eye-witness account of the state’s response to Nigeria’s food dilemma.
In February 2024, I was the moderator of a media chat, the governor’s first tagged “Sanwoolu Speaks” where in the context of the complaints about hunger in the state, the Governor promised among other things to launch what he called “Ounje Eko”- that is Lagos Food Initiative to support households and make food affordable. Within weeks after that media chat, Governor Sanwoolu launched the “Ounje Eko” Initiative, to give 25% food subsidy to Lagos residents in 60 locations across the state in all the local government areas. By July 2024, the Lagos government had chosen to rename the Ministry of Agriculture to become the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Systems. The new emphasis was to create and develop in an efficient manner, a value chain in Lagos State from the farm to the market to achieve supply and price stability. By October 2024, Lagos State launched the Fresh Food Hub Initiative, with the pilot project in Idi-Oro, Mushin. The concept is that of a one stop for very fresh food at affordable and unbeatable prices. It is a public-private partnership project, a good demonstration of how the government can collaborate with entrepreneurs with knowledge and expertise to innovate and elevate.
The other day, I ran into the Chairman of the company -Origin Tech Group that is in partnership with the Lagos State Government on the project. His name is Prince Samuel J. Samuel. He is Chairman of about 22 companies including Sensale, Greener Hope, Landcraft, Rhema Project, Origin Agriculture, Origin Automobile and so on and so forth. His main project and mission is to partner with government to revolutionize agriculture. He believes that agriculture is one area in which Nigeria can make a quick difference in the people’s lives: create jobs, provide food at affordable rates, develop communities, and develop mechanized farming. “Many Nigerians are trained but they are untested”, he told me. Investment in agriculture can build resilient food systems and develop expertise. His company has since worked with the Sanwoolu Government to develop a 5-year Agric Strategic Plan for Lagos State. It is sub-titled “Lagos State Agriculture Development Roadmap – Making Lagos a 21st Century Economy.” Prince Samuel says he has had to suspend every other project he is working on because he is inspired by Governor Sanwoolu’s commitment and determination. His company designed and built the Middle Level Market in Idi Oro, Mushin. But that he said is just the beginning of a carefully thought-out programme for Lagos State.
Last week, he invited me to visit the Food Logistics Hub that is being built in the Epe Division of the state. The plan is to commission the first phase of this Logistics Hub for Agriculture in May, 2025. It is located in Ketu-Ejinrin, a quiet, rural community that is about to be transformed. For over two hours, we inspected the vast farmland and food processing centre that is under construction. The phase one sits on 2.2 million square metres of land, and when the hub is completed, it will occupy 4.2 million square metres. Origin Group and the Lagos Government are constructing a total of 60 kms network of roads within the farm settlement, 18 km is already built with full concrete, of about more than 4 metres in diameter.
Some of the facilities at the location include a weighbridge, an administrative block of five floors, a cold storage on 15, 000 square metres, a large dry store area, 11 dealing areas sitting on 7,000 sq. metres (8 nearing completion), storage silos of 1.5 million tonnes when fully completed, a clinic, and a truck terminal with a processing and parking capacity of 1, 560 trucks per day. When fully completed, this facility will be powered with a 4 MW gas plant, backed up with 27 MW of solar capacity. The Lagos Food System hub is patterned after the Marche d’Interet National de Rungis in Paris, the largest food market in the world. A similar market co-operative is the Royal FloraHolland. The Lagos farm logistics hub is designed to sell wholesale products to traders who then distribute to other networks within the state. The objective, says Samuel, is to ensure market and price stability. I marvelled at the expanse of land, stretching as far as the Lagoon with jetty locations abutting the farm. Five kilometres away is another farm, a ranch for cows. Over 250 million dollars have so far been spent. The workers at the location were all Nigerians including the engineers and security personnel.
“We could not have done this without Governor Sanwoolu”, he said. “If Dangote can build a whole refinery, that in itself is inspiring. Other entrepreneurs can do it. Governor Sanwoolu told me let’s do it. By the time you visit this site in another month, you’d be surprised.”
Would he opt for a Free Zone model? “No”, he retorted. “We don’t want customs disturbing our off-takers. Do you know what killed Tinapa? Brilliant idea. Free Trade Zone killed it.”
How about exports? “That is not our priority. The Governor wants the people of Lagos to get food at stable and affordable prices, that is his primary target.”
When we left Ketu-Ejinrin, our next stop was Abijo, near the Lagos Business School where Lagos State is building another Middle Level Market. “If you look around, you will see that markets in Lagos States developed organically. What Governor Sanwoolu is trying to do is to organize the farm to market value chain in line with world standards,” Prince Samuel said. The Abijo Market is the same as the one in Idi Oro, Mushin. Lagos State plans to build about 60 of such markets across the state. A beautiful structure, with ample parking space. The market is to be operated on a trade-as-you-go-basis. The market like the one in Idi-Oro is also open to all Lagosians. I pointed out that I had seen something similar in Rwanda. Prince Samuel dismissed that quickly. “The Lagos vision is bigger than that!”
From Abijo, we also inspected Origin Group factories in Oregun and Surulere where state of the art mechanized farming equipment has been kept aside, to launch perhaps the most extensive mechanized farming programme that Nigeria has ever seen, when the logistics hub is completed. I was worried though that Governor Sanwoolu has just two more years left in office. Is there any guarantee that this legacy project will be sustained by his successors? Perhaps the private sector partnership is a form of guarantee. Prince Samuel is as committed to the project as the Governor. A former Tomato Puree maker, he sees agriculture as a business and a passion. He believes that with agriculture, Nigeria cannot fail, nor should the country worry about the energy transition, an area where Nigeria is so far behind. Agriculture he says is the future. Prince Samuel is also an author, he believes that research is everything, and that technology has changed the world for good. He has found a good soulmate in the Governor of Lagos State. The Lagos 5-year Agric Plan should be shared with other states of the Federation and the Federal Government. Nigerians must fight the scourge of hunger. No Nigerian male or female, must ever go to bed hungry. President Tinubu and the Governors must feed the nation and encourage local entrepreneurs working in the agric sector and other sectors. Dangote’s example in oil and gas has catalyzed courage and ambition in the country. Let more
Dangotes who dream big (!) emerge across the landscape.
![[OPINION] From Trump to Grammy Blues - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/a59719664df1d85791c7a182eca4b6a0_M.jpg?t=20250204_065126)
“How are you doing?”
“I am good”
“I am now convinced beyond any iota of doubt that this your Republican friend called Donald Trump has something wrong with him.”
“There is nothing wrong with him. Be careful what you say, otherwise we will ban you from ever entering the United States from generation to generation, and even your children who are living in the United States will be deported or sent to Guantanamo Bay, Gitmo, for life. Please try and respect constituted authority. When you mention the name Trump, please do so with respect and reverence. He is the most powerful man in the world today, and you can see he is not joking about it.”
“What is your own in this matter? I am trying to have a decent conversation, you are saying we will, we will. Are you now a member of Trump’s cabinet? Are you an American? You Nigerians are sick. This is how some members of Corporate Nigeria organized events in 2008 to support Obama. In the last election, some of you started rooting for Trump even when you all knew you had no vote in the election. When he won, one fellow in Northern Nigeria organized a victory rally. Too many Nigerians are crazy about American politics but they are so terribly illiterate about politics in their own country. Many of you celebrated when Trump won, now the same Trump is deporting your own people.”
“I don’t care about Nigerian leaders. They only think of themselves. President Trump is thinking about the American people. He wants to make American people great by putting American interest first. Which African leader thinks about us the people? For me, it is a matter of principle. Any leader that says his people’s interest is his primary objective, I will praise him. African leaders must learn from the example of Trump. Learn to think about your people.”
“So, how does that principle justify Trump making enemies over the weekend with America’s major trading partners? Annually, Mexico, Canada and China account for over $1.6 trillion of trade with the US and more than 40% of imports into the US. Canada supplies 61% of American crude oil. And now Trump says he is imposing 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on goods from China. That is an open declaration of a global trade war that will not help anybody”
“So? Trump made a campaign promise about immigration and the importation of drugs into the United States. He is keeping his election promise. He is forcing the world including the European Union to renegotiate with America. This is his second coming. He has a better understanding than he had in his first term. He is standing up for the American people.”
“He is reversing everything that America stood for before his second coming. American exceptionalism should not mean American isolationism nor should it translate into expansionism which has never been a pillar of the American foreign policy process.” .
“Theory. Textbook analysis. We are talking politics, you are parroting some dead authors.”
“But I like the way other countries are standing up to him. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico will retaliate with tariff and non-tariff measures and that America is guilty of slander by trying to link Mexico with criminal organizations. She thinks the option on the table should be dialogue not tariff. Now see how immediately Trump has paused the tariffs on Mexico. President Sheinbaum knows exactly how to deal with a bully.”
“Which Mexican President? Who is Sheinbaum compared to Trump? When Gustavo Petro, the President of Colombia started protesting that Colombians should not be treated like criminals, or shipped back to Colombia in a military aircraft, didn’t the same Petro eventually eat his words? America is talking, you are talking.”
“Every country has a sovereign right and I expect every leader to stand up like President Sheinbaum and refuse to be bullied by Donald Trump. Canada for example was also swift and decisive in retaliating. The same day Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded with a declaration of ad valorem tariffs of $155 billion on US goods, $30 billion to take effect on Tuesday and another $125 billion in 21 days. It is called tit for tat, reciprocity. Nobody has a monopoly of madness in international relations. Even the EU has threatened that if Trump tries anything funny, they too will fight back. China has filed a suit with the World Trade Organization to complain about America’s wrongful practice.”
“Na today? China can go to the WTO. The EU can hem and haw. A Daniel has come to judgment in the United States. Before Trump, every knee shall bow. Are you not aware that he has even threatened that anybody that confronts the US will only have the tariffs expanded or increased in scope?”
“Are you also not aware that the point has been made that there are no winners in a trade war? Trump can increase tariffs which would be a destabilizing moment for world trade from Canada to Asia and Africa, but it will also affect the markets in America, drive up inflation and cause an earthquake in America’s relations with the world. The people in Canada may suffer, but Americans will suffer as well.”
“You are quoting Trudeau. What does he know? When he leaves office, he would also probably end up as an immigrant in the US”
“That is an unfair thing to say”
“Trump is using power. He is forcing the world to negotiate with him and the US.”
“He is a bull in a China shop.”
“Okay, go and challenge him”
“President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa has challenged him over his statement about land policy in his country. I like Ramaphosa. He is also standing up for his country, since you say you like a President who stands up for his people.”
“Ramaphosa. Let me see? South African President? Against Trump? It is even bad enough that South Africa is a member of BRICS. Hey. Hey. Hey. Has anyone told President Ramaphosa what Professor Bola Akinyemi, Nigeria’s former Foreign Affairs Minister and Chairman of Nigeria’s Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) said about how it can be risky to provoke or confront Trump? President Ramaphosa should tread carefully. Trump has threatened to call off all future funding to South Africa, if the country continues to seize white people’s land without compensation”
“African countries do not need aid. What we need is partnership. Vice President Kashim Shettima of Nigeria said that much in January at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Besides, Professor Akinyemi was advising President Tinubu of Nigeria, not President Ramaphosa of South Africa.”
“What is the difference? You think Trump cares whether you are from South Africa or Nigeria? But I know President Tinubu. He would not behave like these other Presidents. He will not confront Donald Trump. And if America stops aid to Africa and other parts of the world, or refuses to fund Nigeria’s HIV/AIDS programme, is it our money? It is American taxpayer’s money. Nobody can tell America how to spend its money.”
“America has a responsibility to protect the world.”
“America has a responsibility to protect America and its citizens. How is that so difficult for anyone to understand? “
“I don’t like the Republicans.”
“You don’t have to like them. Americans voted for Trump overwhelmingly. It was a landslide victory in November 2024.”
“We’d see. We’d see where Trump leads the rest of the world. By the way, did you watch the 67th Grammys awards?"
“I did. I did. I am excited by the fact that our own Tems, Temilade Openiyi, won her second Grammy in the Best African Music Performance category, the first Nigerian to win two Grammy awards. History made. I was rooting for Yemi Alade but when Tems won, I was happy for her and her Mum. Sweet reward for hardwork and commitment. It was even her Mum’s birthday the following day and she deservedly dedicated the award to her and her team. Parenting matters. Train your child so she can make you proud.”
“That is really something. Her market value is going to shoot up. With a Grammy Award, she is made, with two, she is up there. In total, she has had eight nominations at the Grammy Awards in her career. She does not need anybody’s validation. So blessed. So young.”
“All the other Nigerians who made it to the nomination are winners too. Asake, Wizkid, Davido, Burna Boy, Lojay, Yemi Alade, just really happy for them all. Wizkid and Bloody Civilian are also contributors to the Best Reggae Album: Wizkid with One Love, Bloody Civilian with Natural Mystic. Brilliant. These are great ambassadors.”
“I loved Tems’ acceptance speech. But I think it was a big oversight on that stage not to have mentioned Seyi Shodimu and Shaffy Bello, who originally sang the winning song Love me Jeje, Love Me Tender, 28 years ago in 1997. Music for Future Generations now remixed by Tems and turned into Grammy Gold.”
“Hmm. You are right. Love me Jeje, Love me Tender. Who would ever have thought that that song will make it to Grammy glory? But the bigger question is: does anybody still make music for future generations anymore? Most of what you hear out there, despite the commercial success and international attention, these days, is just synthetic music, a lot of sound and very little sense.”
“I won’t be so dismissive. I think the younger generation is doing really well. Every generation finds and defines its own path. Public taste in art as in everything changes, new patterns evolve and humanity adapts. There is also the element of luck. Stardom falls upon those that the elements smile upon. There is also a mystery in everything. I am just happy for the young lady. For the first time, I saw her standing straight, not bending to the side like a Tower of Pisa. So that her waist can stand erect?”
“Stop. She is still a child. Act your age. Focus on her talent. Not her waist.”
“I liked her dress.”
“The designer did a good job. But did you see other Grammy Red Carpet looks? What was that Jaden and Willow Smith were wearing? And was Kanye West Ye’s partner Bianca Censori, naked or in a bathing suit or a dress.? I think there must be a dress code for these awards. I support Trump but I don’t support indecency, nudity, or stupidity on the red carpet.”
“That Censori was practically naked. She should have been censored and asked to leave the event. And look at Julia Fox and that see-through whatever that she was wearing. Censori even wore something more scandalous to the after-party.”
“It is the end of times. It is the worst of times.”
“I hope the day will never come when a Nigerian girl, any of our daughters will dress like that and flaunt it in public.”
“I think you don’t know what is going on. You are old school. The truth is that many of our own girls dress worse than that. There is a booming, lucrative, flourishing market in the sale of flesh. They bare it all. They taunt men these days and it is not necessarily because of poverty as you may think. Most of these girls that you see have turned their bodies into pure theatre. If you know, you know. It is part of the code in the entertainment world. They stretch the imagination”
“I don’t want to know. I believe very strongly that society must have a moral core. It is one of the reasons why I have a soft spot for Trump. I do not believe in this new age of amorality.”
“These are Americans though. It probably means nothing to them.”
“I like other aspects of the event though. Beyonce winning her 35th Grammy, Best Country Album and the Album of the Year, and seeing her on stage with Taylor Swift. Really memorable. Kendrick Lamar winning five awards. Wow! President Jimmy Carter, five weeks after his death receiving a posthumous honour for his audiobook. Cynthia Erivo performing Frank Sinatra’s Fly me to the Moon in a tribute to the late Quincy Jones, and the fact that the event was held in Los Angeles, against the background of the recent wildfires and the man versus nature devastation in Southern California. Man’s capacity to defy danger and despair is awesome.”
“Please, let’s leave America alone for a moment. There is going to be trouble in Paradise on Tuesday, February 4, when the Nigeria Labour Congress and its affiliates troop out to protest the proposed 50% hike in telecommunications tariffs.”
“You mean more trouble in Hell, because I don’t know what Paradise you are talking about. It cannot be worse than this. We pay so much for petrol and diesel, we are now being told that we are going to pay 50% more to make phone calls and send messages or use data, and that this will increase gradually, and I hear some people are saying electricity tariff will soon increase by 65% to reflect cost. Hell cannot be worse than this.”
“NLC is going to fight for us. Organized Labour must fight for us.”
“I don’t know which Labour you are talking about. Some NLC affiliates have already said that they will not be part of any protest.”
“The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS). Are those ones part of NLC? Those are students doing aluta. What do they know? I am talking about organized labour, you are referring to singers and placard carriers.”
“Students unionism has a distinguished history. It is just the way things are these days. There is also another group called the Private Telecommunications and Communications Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PTECSSAN). They have also rejected the protest.”
“What do you expect those ones to say? To protest against the same companies where they work and eat? What will shock you is that even NLC leaders will meet with government officials and before you know it, you will hear that after due consultations, the strike has been called off to give room for further negotiations. That is how we will end up paying the tariffs.”
“And is that how they intend to bring down inflation from 35% to 15%?”
“I don’t know. Maybe they expect us to adjust the way we make phone calls, particularly Yoruba people. You people can greet in excess. Instead of saying hello and making your point, you will greet for five minutes. Some of you even prostrate while making a phone call. That attitude has to stop for
pure economic reasons.”
“It is culture”
“Fine. Wait and see. Your pocket will soon define your culture.”
![[OPINION] Tanker Explosions, Avoidable Deaths - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/8aaa25cc2241805d2decc75cc3486ec5_M.jpg?t=20250128_070804)
On Saturday, January 25, tears flowed freely as families mourned the death of 18 persons in a petrol tanker accident along the Ugwuonyema section of the Enugu-Onitsha expressway. The driver of the petrol tanker reportedly had a brake failure, then lost control and crashed into the vehicles in front of him. Petrol poured out and caught fire. The surrounding vehicles and their passengers were incinerated instantly. Eighteen persons were burnt to ashes, many more were severely burnt. Those who could be rescued were taken to the Enugu State University Teaching Hospital (Park Lane) and the National Orthopaedic Hospital for treatment. Both hospitals were overwhelmed. One of the victims was on holiday from his overseas base.
A week earlier, January 18, a fuel tanker carrying about 60, 000 litres of fuel crashed at the Dikko junction near Suleja in Niger State. Residents within the vicinity, including children, immediately rushed to the scene with all kinds of containers: buckets, kegs, bottles, some even carried their generators with them to scoop free fuel. In the hustle and bustle that ensued, there was an explosion! Over 80 lives were lost, 69 persons were critically injured, about 20 nearby shops were burnt down and destroyed. On January 22, 2025, in Jalingo, Taraba state, less than a week after the tragedy in Suleja another petrol tanker overturned, spilling its contents onto the road, and despite the obvious risks, the people again rushed out to collect fuel. They had to be chased away by Civil Defence Officers. In October 2024, a similar incident in Majiya, Jigawa resulted in the death of about 200 people and injured over 120 others. Again, it was reported in that incident that the tanker which was travelling between Kano and Yobe State overturned while trying to avoid a collision with another truck. Its contents spilled and people quickly looked for containers to scoop free fuel. And an explosion occurred. In September 2024, there was yet another case of tanker explosion in Niger State when a petrol tanker ran into a herd of cattle and collided with a truck. Over 50 persons died. Thus, petrol tanker explosions have become so frequent in Nigeria, North to South, East to West, so much that Nigerians are beginning to accept this as a fact of life. The Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) to convey the tragic nature of the problem stated that in the year 2020 alone, there were about 1, 531 such accidents, claiming 535 lives. In the last three months, more than 250 persons have died.
Oil was discovered in Nigeria in 1956 by the Royal Shell Company, with exploration beginning in earnest in 1958, and over the years Nigeria became the sixth largest producer of crude oil in the world, with petrodollar accounting for 80% of the country’s total export revenue and foreign exchange earnings. The country also has the finest, in-demand grade of crude: the low sulfur, sweet, Brent crude. Ordinarily, this should be a blessing to the country, but the biggest problem that Nigeria faces is the curse of oil, that is “resource curse”. Either in a crude form or processed form, oil has been the cause of Nigeria’s woes. The mismanagement of this resource, poor leadership, and corruption within the oil and gas industry have since combined to lead to rebellion in the Niger Delta, and a scramble for oil wealth. Nigeria has over 5,000 kilometres of pipelines, but these pipelines are routinely vandalized, resulting in spills and environmental degradation, and tragedy, oil thieves continue to compromise the weak pipelines trying to get their share of the national cake, the oil companies have not done enough to maintain infrastructure in the face of the menace of restiveness in the Niger Delta. Only about 1% of the population benefits from oil revenue. Fuel is transported on the roads, and most of the roads in Nigeria are bad. When fuel tankers overturn, members of the Petrol Tanker Drivers Association of Nigeria are quick to blame the bad state of the roads, but that does tell the full story. The true story is so bad that each time there is an omission in the oil and gas sector, hundreds or thousands die as they did in Jesse, in Delta State on October 18, 1998 pipeline explosion; Atlas Creek Island, Lagos in 2006; Ijegun, 2008; Ejigbo, Lagos in 2018; and gas explosion in Abule Ado area of Amuwo Odofin in Lagos in 2020.
Whether it is pipeline, or gas or fuel explosion, the story line has remained similar and repetitive, and the people who lose their lives and properties are the victims. The responses from the relevant authorities are predictable: prominent Nigerians including Governors and the Presidency would immediately issue statements describing the incident as “worrisome, heartbreaking, unfortunate, regrettable and tragic,” with the usual condolences duly expressed. The Emergency Management Agency in the affected states, the Fire Service and the FRSC would rush to the press to demonstrate that their officials and the “ogas at the top” are on top of the matter. Nobody is actually on top of anything. The Federal Government would announce that it has set up a committee to investigate the matter, and advise the government on pipeline safety and petroleum transport safety protocols. Religious leaders will offer prayers for the souls of the dead, and the community would bury the remains in mass graves. Opposition political leaders would visit the elders of the community and make some very open donations, the pre-planned publicity of which would almost gain greater prominence in the media. As it was in 1998, so it is today. After the rituals of statements and investigations, the results of which may never be released, the country moves on. The road lies in wait. When the next “worrisome, heartbreaking, unfortunate, regrettable and tragic accident” occurs in another part of the country, we go through the same ritual again. It looks like a repetitive cycle of failure. It is right to commiserate with the bereaved families in Niger and Enugu states, but it will, sad to say, happen again. It is certainly tragic that in many of the cases, entire families are wiped out, for no reason other than that they are in a country that suffers from the curse of oil. How about a Nigerian in diaspora who comes home on holiday only to end up dying on the road because a fuel tanker crashes and explodes?
But why do people rush to scoop fuel each time a tanker discharges its contents on the road? Why do people choose to willingly commit suicide knowing that fuel is combustible and death is the only certainty when an explosion occurs? Since May 2023, the pump price of fuel has increased by about 400%, the cost of living as a result of inflation has also increased. Those who own cars can hardly fill their tanks anymore. Generator owners need fuel but the cost is also high, and there is no regular electricity supply in a country of over 200 million people. When there is news of free petrol gouging out of a fallen tanker, or a burst pipeline, the people rush for gold, and they often die in the process. The people live in a blessed country but they are so adrift, so lost, they would rather embrace death with faith and hope. The National Orientation Agency (NOA) has been directed by the President to sensitize the people, and educate them. In other words, Nigerians must be advised not to commit suicide. The current leadership of NOA says it is ready to take on the task. But will the people listen? It is the yawning disconnect between the people and their government that will in part cause the next fuel tanker explosion.
Fuel tanker drivers are quick to blame the state of the roads. Frequent accidents on the Enugu-Onitsha Expressway have been traced to the poor state of the roads, and indeed, this is a major problem nationwide. If the roads are full of potholes and bumps, the drivers knowing that they are transporting dangerous content ought to drive more carefully. No, they don’t. They are forever struggling for space with other motorists. They drive at high speed, and nobody enforces speed limits on highways. The Petrol Tankers Owners Association of Nigeria, National Association of Transport Operators, Container Truck Owners Association of Nigeria and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) claim that they would enforce safety protocols. But they do not. And they will not. The drivers leave their loading depots, for the most part, fully stoned, or energized by psychotropic drugs. They are also made to travel long distances. Many of them doze off on the steering wheels. Petrol tanker owners want their cargo delivered at the destination. They don’t care much about the accidents that occur on the roads. Many of the tankers are not properly maintained. The brakes often fail. Both the tanker drivers and the tanker owners must be held liable for the havoc that they cause. Until a tanker driver and the tanker owner are tried and convicted, made to pay damages to the government and the families of victims, or banned outrightly from ever running a tanker business, we may never see any improvement. Going forward any truck bearing unlatched containers, which fall over, endangering lives and properties, must be seized, along with the container and its entire contents. The driver and the owner of same must be made to face the full wrath of the law. Setting up committees and issuing statements will never help.
Where are the government agencies on the roads, the security personnel: the police, road safety, fire service who are supposed to ensure safety on the roads? Even when they are on the roads, they are also busy trying to survive. There are not enough fire safety units in the country to start with, certainly not on the highways, making a mockery of every attempt at emergency response. The policemen collect bribes. Road safety officials are overstretched. There are too many bad vehicles on Nigeria’s bad roads, and most of the vehicles violating rules and regulations are owned by Nigeria’s big men: an untouchable class of non-citizens with an elephantine sense of entitlement. We should be tired of the law enforcement agencies playing to the gallery. They need to become professional.
And in any case, why should we transport petrol and other dangerous cargo by road and often during daytime at busy hours, either within the city or the highways. In the past some state governments have had to restrict the movement of tanker drivers to specific times of the day or to designated routes. In 2018, the Lagos state government directed articulated vehicles to obtain road worthiness certificates within 30 days, Anambra state did so too in 2019, directing that tankers and containers could only travel within the state between 1 am to 4 am. Following the accident in Suleja, Niger State, on January 18, the state Governor Mohammed Umar Bago has since banned heavy-duty trucks from plying the Dikko Bridge where the accident occurred. State governments lack the capacity to enforce their own orders. The tankers and containers are owned by very powerful persons and organizations in Nigeria: the same people who donate money and sponsor candidates during elections. Over the years, corporate Nigeria has perfected the art of putting the professional political class in its pocket. The owners of the murderous tankers and containers are the Godfathers of the men in political offices. This combination of capital and social connections stands in the way of any effective policy making and implementation in Nigeria, with the people at the mercy of the conspiracy of the business and political elite.
What is the best practice in other parts of the world, with regard to the transportation of fuel and other cargo? The fact that toxic and inflammable materials are still being transported so carelessly on Nigerian roads is yet another sign of the country’s underdevelopment. Nigeria is a member of OPEC like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Angola, Gabon, Algeria, and the UAE. You may never hear that a petrol tanker on the roads crashed in those countries and people rushed to scoop fuel and got murdered by the state. It is a question of how much value we place on human lives around here.
And when these accidents occur, why is it that the hospitals are not of any significant use? The usual excuse is that we have good doctors and specialists, but most of the hospitals are poorly equipped. It is either there is no electricity or there is no diesel to power the generator. There was a students’ protest recently at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, once a pride of the nation, because there was no electricity. The Ibadan Disco had to cut off power supply to the hospital for months due to unpaid electricity bills! How can such a hospital respond to any medical emergency? The story is the same in other parts of the country where hospitals reject accident and emergency cases due to the lack of basic facilities, including oxygen tanks. And yet many of these hospitals were supposedly built and equipped by the government at double or triple the actual cost. When people get burnt to ashes in Nigeria, in a fuel tanker accident for example, there is virtually no means of identifying them either through biometrics and dental records. The ashes are collected and buried in unmarked and unknown graves. Nigeria is a vast country of undocumented non-citizens, no reliable data, no ready-to-access medical records, and even those that may be documented can only pray that Nigeria does not happen to them. The fact that it is possible for anyone to wake up in the morning and disappear without trace and permanently is what is truly tragic about our Nigerian experience.
![[OPINION] The Second Coming Of Donald Trump - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/e0b50b219590b369fb715ce040483314_S.jpg?t=20250121_070549)
The most important global event yesterday, January 20, 2025, was the inauguration of Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States, now as the 47th President of the United States in what has been correctly described as his second coming. Trump’s second coming should be taken in this literal sense, the United States allowing for a possible two terms in office as the limit for any President, in line with the 22nd Amendment (1951) in the United States Constitution. With his landslide victory in the Nov. 5, 2024 election, in which he defeated Democratic late-comer to the race, Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump was assuredly on his way to serving his second and final term as President and that process reached its climax yesterday. The only President that served more than two terms was Franklin D. Roosevelt who ran for the Presidency and won four times (1933-1945), before Americans embraced the wisdom of George Washington (US founding father and first President) that any President serving more than two terms was likely to become a king or an emperor. Trump’s return to the White House is reminiscent of the example of Grover Cleveland who served a term like Trump (1885 -1889) as 22nd President, lost re-election like Trump and then won re-election four years later: (1893 – 1897) to become 24th President.
History turned full circle and repeated itself yesterday more than a century later with Trump being the second President in American history to be elected for two non-consecutive terms. History was also made with Trump at 78 years, 220 days becoming the oldest President ever inaugurated, over 100 days older than President Joe Biden was when he became President in January 2021. By the time he completes his term four years from now, Trump will be 82. He is also the first convicted felon to occupy the White House having been found guilty of 34 counts of felony in the Stormy Daniel, hush money, record-falsification case. Curiously, Grover Cleveland, the first democrat elected after the civil war, was also embroiled in allegations of sexual assault and violence from a woman named Maria Halpin. It would be quite a long shot to assume that Trump is a reincarnate of Grover Cleveland, in the same manner as students of soul evolution have tried to establish similarities and connections between Abraham Lincoln and J.F. Kennedy. Nor can the phrase “the second coming of Trump” be interpreted in a Christian eschatological sense.
With all his right-wing, hardline conservative rhetoric, however, Trump is not the messianic figure who will bring about a new heaven, a new earth and a new Jerusalem that his supporters and fans envision him to be. “Donald Trump’s Disruption is Back…He’s Back” says the Time Magazine, with an illustration showing President Biden’s aviator sunglasses being swiped off the Resolute Desk. Nothing could be more apt, again very much like the official portrait of the 47th President, unsmiling – the smile in the 2016 official portrait has been wiped off and replaced with a gangster-style, fiendish look, with a scowl. The portrait looks like a mug shot and one body language expert has observed that the simple language of the Picture is that Trump is on a revenge mission. He is back to take a pound of flesh. Trump is not the messiah; he is Nietzsche’s change agent: the Super Man who revels in his own sense of importance. Trump has promised that he will “make heads spin on his first day back in office”, and really heads started spinning long before he made his improbable comeback now a reality. Last Sunday, he posted memes on Truth Social including one that says: “Not elected to be nice. Elected to get results.”
This process of getting results began over the weekend with President Trump relocating to Washington DC, in preparation for his inauguration on Monday, January 20. On Saturday, he held a party at his golf club in Sterling, Virginia, featuring an Elvis Presley impersonator and fireworks display. Saturday night, he slept at the Blair House, the President’s official guest residence on Pennsylvania Avenue, across the street from the White House. On Sunday, he held a rally ahead of the inauguration to remind everyone obviously that he was back in town and he was going to plant the Republican and the Trumpian flag in Washington DC, again. Trump was not new to the symbolism nor the imagism but he needed to drive home the point. The glorious moment eventually came yesterday and it was quite an impressive ceremony. The inauguration of the 47th President was held indoors due to freezing temperatures outdoors. The weather yesterday was – 5 Celsius in the same city, on the same grounds. In 1961, President John Kennedy was inaugurated amid -22 Celsius, but the weather can be cruel, and climate change has been the cruellest of all things over the years, after all the poets, not one, not two but about four are of the view that “winter is the cruellest month”. I have no objections to the Trump inauguration being held indoors, with about 750 persons in attendance. It was however most ironic that the ceremony was held in the same high sandstone hall at the Capitol’s Centre where Trump’s supporters broke in and rioted on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to overturn America’s democracy. In 2021, the same Trump supporters held America hostage. Their man, who threatened to hold America by the jugular, returned yesterday. “Oh! America.”
This was much clear when Senator Amy Klobucher (D-Minnesota), chairwoman of the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural ceremonies, in declaring the ceremonies open and welcoming everyone, talked again and again about “peaceful transfer of power at the heart of our democracy”, our enduring democracy, and how the “Capitol is the people’s home”, and the responsibility of citizenship not to seek malice. Yesterday. Americans celebrated 250 years of democracy and the 60th Presidential inauguration ceremony but I could not miss the additional point made by Senator Deb Fisher (R- Nebraska) about “the prominence of a people through change”. Again, it was all about the American people, putting back to power, a man whose supporters in the same space desecrated the people’s yearning for change. Senators Klobuchar and Fisher may have been passing a message or a set of subliminal messages across, but the point is that democracy is what it is: it provides the people an opportunity to make a choice and even if they make a wrong choice, it is up to the people to either defend or reject their own choice, not for anyone to dictate to them. President Trump was applauded again and again after being sworn in as President, and there was a crowd of enthusiastic cheer leaders at the Capitol Arena hailing the new Chief.
It was a symbolic, impressive moment but it was also a prayerful moment as well from the invocations by Cardinal Timothy Dolan, Archbishop of New York to Rev. Franklin Graham, President and CEO, Samaritan’s Place who delivered the opening prayers. And the Benedictions by Rabbi Dr. Ari Berman of the Yeshiva University, Rev. Lorenzo Sevell, Senior Pastor of 180 Church, West Detroit, and Rev. Frank Mann of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Brooklyn, New York. Rev. Sevell from West Detroit made quite an impression. Trump’s inauguration coincided with Martin Luther King’s week. King was a champion of freedom, justice and equality. Brother Sevell understood the assignment. He spoke about freedom and equality and evoked memories of Black America’s struggle for freedom. This was clearly in line with the tone that was further echoed in Donald J. Trump’s second inaugural speech, and perhaps the bigger poignant moment at the main event for me was the rendition of “America, the beautiful”, by Carrie Underwood, after what looked like a brief impasse of awkwardness in an otherwise beautifully organized, well-choreographed event. But of course, the main moment anyway was President Donald Trump’s speech. Well crafted. Well delivered. Good nuance. A fiery speech. It was a combination of sharp, cruel jabs at the outgoing administration and a promise that America will do better under Trump.
He accused the democrats of a horrible betrayal of our people. “All of this will change starting today.”, he bellowed. He threatened to change the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and take back the Panama Canal which he called “a foolish gift” to Panama. He declared that he would be “a peacemaker and a unifier”, and that under his watch, America will be the most respected nation in the world. He wants to build a society that is colour-blind and merit-based. “There are only two genders – male and female, and that will be US state policy, and those who rejected COVID mandate will be reinstated with full back pay.” He wants to overhaul America’s trade system and impose tariffs and taxes to “enrich our country” by setting up an External Tariff Service. His words as I heard them: Confidence. Effectiveness. Exceptionalism. He wants America to be a manufacturing country again, the largest oil and gas nation, that will build automobiles. He will announce a national emergency to drill. Drug Cartels will be classified as terrorist organizations. All illegal entries will be halted. “And we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came.” Those coming from Mexico must remain in Mexico, as all foreign gangs will immediately be eliminated. On inflation, President Trump said he will “direct all members of my cabinet… to defeat what was record inflation”. He lied in that regard though. US inflation was not record-inflation under President Biden. I watched President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’s body language as the delivery progressed. The only time I saw them standing up and applauding was when Trump touched on the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. In any case, Trump promised what he called “the revolution of common sense”.
In terms of optics, the ceremony did not disappoint. Trump, a friend of rich America did not disappoint in particular as some of the world’s richest persons got the best sitting positions: Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai and Elon Musk, with the room reeking of capital, wealth, power, and influence. The CEOs of the tech giants had reportedly donated as much as a minimum of a million dollar each to support the inauguration. Musk, the world’s richest man was so excited he told the audience at the Capital One Arena, where there was a more elaborate parade, that Trump’s win is “no ordinary win, this was a fork in the road of human civilization” and that “the future of civilization is assured”. He echoed Trump’s sentiment that now is the time “to plant the Stripes and Stars on the planet Mars.”
Trump’s tone was in turns dark, staid, and aggressive. He insisted in a second speech that he won the election in 2020. As he spoke, members of his far-right Proud Boys group, the J6 gang, paraded around the streets of Washington. They expect him to pardon their members who have been convicted for the January assault on the Capitol. And he has promised he will. He was confident that he would save America. “From this moment on, the decline of America is over… I return to the Presidency confident and optimistic that we are at the start of a thrilling new era of national success. A tide of change is sweeping the country. Sunlight is pouring over the entire world. And America has the chance to seize this opportunity like never before”. WE should ask: is sunlight pouring all over the world with Trump 2.0? While American exceptionalism may sound like good music to the ears of most Americans, particularly fans of Trump’s agenda, it sounds ominous to the rest of the world, as Trump’s speech was underscored by threats of possible and likely American expansionism, casting America’s superior power as a threat to the global order. For Nigerians who think that a public profession of faith means something, President Trump for their information refused to place his hands on any Bible: his mother’s Bible and the 1861 Lincoln Bible, held by his wife, Melania, while he took his oath of office. President Jose Raul Mulino of Panama says he must “comprehensively reject the words of President Donald Trump “because “the canal is and will remain Panama’s.” Beyond Panama, it is the entire world that is panicking, from Greenland to Russia, to Ukraine, to Canada which Trump has boasted will be turned into the 51st state of the United States, to Africa, the European Union and Asia. Trump may be determined to make America great again, but it would be a sad development if the world were to become a smaller place under his influence. America gets a new President; the world is quaking. It is a poor foreboding.
No one is even sure of what the future holds for America within its own borders. In the last moments of his Presidency, Joe Biden had to grant unprecedented, preemptive, pardons to persons that he thinks may be targeted by the second coming of a man on a revenge mission. Those pardoned are essentially prominent critics of Donald Trump including Dr. Anthony Fauci, former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease for more than a decade who defended COVID protections, former Representative Liz Cheney who condemned Trump, members of Congress who served on the committee that investigated the Jan 6, 2021 insurrection, as well as close members of the Biden family and their spouses that could be targeted by Trump. The mere fact that a group of persons needed to be shielded, even when they have not been held liable for any specific crime, ahead of the inauguration of a new administration in the United States is a loud, sub-textual comment on the status of American democracy and its immediate future.
![[OPINION] Of Wildfires, Los Angeles, Obasa And Other Human Stories - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/419b0256c841d7d9b34a61d986a2e894_S.jpg?t=20250114_062551)
“I hope your daughter is safe”
“We thank God. We are all fine. But which of my daughters do you have in mind?”
“The one in California. When I read about the wildfires that destroyed over six areas in Southern California, it was you and your daughter that came to my mind. I called you but in your usual fashion, you don’t pick your calls and you are very bad at returning calls.”
“Don’t mind me. Sometimes, I just get too busy for myself. But to God be the glory. The fires didn’t reach her own side of California. But you are right. It has been a traumatic week for me. I was permanently on the phone to her, and even when she told me she was in a safe area each time I read that the wildfires were spreading, I died a little. The commentators online didn’t help matters. They would say Apocalyptic. Surreal. Chaotic. Devastating. Uncontrollable. I became a geography expert monitoring the fires in California from Nigeria.”
“I cannot blame you”.
“That girl is my only daughter. She means everything to me. I have told these children, live in Nigeria, but once you send them to school abroad, they don’t want to come home again. You won’t see their tail lights again. She is in California. Her elder brother is in Canada. The other boy is in the UK. I should have married a second wife long ago, to create a second generation of children instead of sitting all alone in this big house. They don’t even call. They are too busy with their own lives. But what can I do? I commiserate with the people of Los Angeles, the government of California, and the United States.”
“Lost Angeles. A lost city”
“Terrible. Entire neighbourhoods were wiped out by fire. Pacific Palisades. Hollywood Hills. Eaton. Hurst. Lidia. Kenneth. Sunset. Woodley. Olivas. Celebrities lost their homes. Paris Hilton. Adam Brody. Leighton Master. Losses running into over $8 billion worth of insurance. Ordinary people running away from their homes had to abandon their vehicles as they were chased by fire and the intense winds. Total incineration. There is certainly something in this world that we do not understand.”
“The fires have been traced to global warming. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the EU Copernicus Climate Change Services Centre (3SC) have both reported that the year 2024 has been the hottest year for a decade, with an average of 1.6C on a daily basis.”
“I thought the Paris Agreement of 2015 puts the recommended limit at 1.5C. And since then we have been having the Conference of Parties (COP) on global climate issues. COP 26 in Glasgow, Scotland, in 2021, COP 27 in Sharm El Sheik, Egypt in 2022, COP 28 in Dubai in 2023, COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024. I remember those ones very well. World leaders meet and they make commitments, to reduce carbon emissions to zero, finance climate adaptation, and create a better world.”
“Hypocrites! Holding Talks. Leaders of the Global North are quick to talk about climate finance and climate adaptation, but they are not committed to it. We suffer in the Global South far more, even when we contribute less to the crisis. And yet we see the world warming up. Ice glaciers are melting. Sea levels are rising. Earthquakes are more frequent. Floods everywhere. If world temperatures were to rise to 2C, we would all be dead.”
“There are other theories though, especially in the lawless Lost Angeles fires.”
“Tell me”
“Some people are saying that it has to do with the power supply system in the County. Electricity poles collapsing and igniting fires.”
“What I know is the fire chief saying this is about climate change, low humidity and rampaging winds fuelling the fires and that nobody knows when this rage of nature would end or how far the wildfires will travel.”
“Hmm So, what is on your mind? You will ask your daughter to come back home? Return to Nigeria. We don’t have wildfires here.”
“We are part of humanity. We are all in this together. Do you know how many Nigerians live in California? Whatever happens in any part of the world affects others. It is when it touches you that you know. I don’t think my daughter will even agree to come home. She has a good job. She is doing well. I just want her to get married and settle down and run her own life.”
“How is that your business? Let her get a husband and inform you.”
“No. It is my business. I want her to settle down. If she was in her husband’s house, I would not need to worry about wildfires in California. I will know she is not alone. The two of them can look after each other and their own family, and I can sleep better here in Nigeria”
“You are getting old”.
“My daughter should not marry?”
“Leave young people to do their thing. They know how to survive. Stop sounding like a father in-law who wants to do Omugwo. I know your type.”
“What is wrong with Omugwo? I can do it. What is wrong in helping to bring up my own grandchildren.”
“My friend, go and sit down. It is women who do post-partum care not men. Don’t go and disgrace yourself in your daughter’s house. Two of my daughters are married. You know that. Have you ever seen me going to their houses to help baby sit? It is their mother that does that. Don’t let your enthusiasm and lack of experience get the better of you. Getting a husband for your daughter, yes, but don’t go to the ridiculous extent of helping your in-law to change nappies for his own children?”
“You don’t ever get it.”
“Yes. I don’t ever get anything. But I am more experienced than you. Listen to words of wisdom.”
“Obasanjo did well sha”
“What did he do?”
“Last Sunday, he organized a special memorial service in Abeokuta for President Jimmy Carter of the United States who died at 100”
“Oh. That’s a good one. Nice one. President Carter was a good man. He was a global citizen. He made more impact even after his Presidency as a global statesman. This is what we tell our leaders in Africa. Do good. Govern well. Be useful to humanity in and out of office. Stop stealing. Look at the bigger picture ahead. I am sure most Americans don’t even know where Abeokuta is on the map, and yet they have their late President being celebrated, about 5, 000 miles away. These our African leaders, their own people will spit on their graves. It is good to be nice, to leave a legacy of honour and character. This is the message of Jimmy Carter’s legacy.”
“This is also about friendship and loyalty. President Obasanjo found in President Carter a good friend. He has chosen to honour him.”
“A friend must be a friend. I know some people. If their friend dies, their way of showing loyalty would be to take over his wife.”
“Are you alright? I am making an important point, you are talking about wives. Seriously, are you drunk? You must just find a way of turning everything into a joke.”
“Ok. Ok. Sorry. My mind just strayed. You know how it is. You are discussing something and then your mind will just go in another direction, even to a subject that is totally unrelated. These days, my mind just goes this way and that way.”
“Go and see a doctor immediately. Lunacy. Schizophrenia. Hallucination. Seek help.”
“You are the one that is mad. I know what crossed my mind. I am very lucid.”
“Hmm.”
“It is about this woman”
“Which woman? Look, I am not in the mood for gossip today. I have things to attend to.”
“I am talking about this woman who, on January 8, held up a flight from Uyo to Abuja, Ibom Air because according to her she would not leave except her luggage was loaded onto the aircraft and nobody else will travel also. She made sure 89 passengers aboard the aircraft were left stranded. The flight had to be cancelled. And that is supposed to be somebody’s wife oh and the mother of some children. I pity her husband.”
“What I hear is that the same airline had failed to carry her luggage before, citing luggage restrictions. Happening a second time, she could not take it again. I think I know where she is coming from. These Nigerian airlines have very rude staff. They are so discourteous. Someone has to get really angry and teach them a lesson. You will buy expensive tickets and then one airline staff will start treating you as if he or she is doing you a favour. I support the woman. What nonsense! In fact, she should have deflated the tyres of the plane.”
“No. I don’t think you have the right information. What she did was an act of terrorism. No matter the provocation, no air traveller has the right to sabotage the flight. There were other persons on that flight who had things to do in Abuja. They suffered losses, physical and emotional.”
“Somebody has to stand up to these Nigerian airlines. They misbehave a lot. There is no consumer protection. The last time I wanted to go to Abuja, they kept me waiting for hours upon hours. Nobody gave any explanation. The staff were rude and stupid. A flight that was scheduled for 2 pm, I did not get to Abuja until 1 am. One of these days, I will deflate their tyres and damn the consequences.”
“Other lives are involved. You will not do that. Which is precisely the issue in the Ibom Air case. The airline said the woman was carrying excess luggage, and that the aircraft had baggage restrictions. They offered to get the luggage to her on arrival. She insisted on carrying her luggage as hand luggage. Wahala oh. Nigerians are notorious for carrying Town Council luggage. They know us even in Heathrow London, they had to create a special terminal for Nigerians. I don’t think anybody should endanger another person’s life by disregarding safety regulations.”
“Which safety regulations? If the woman had agreed to give the persons at the counter small bribe, they would immediately play ball. This is Nigeria. She just happened to be one of the difficult ones.”
“I will rather just insist that safety is important and those who travel by air must realize that they do not have the right to inconvenience other people. Things got so bad in that January 8 incident other passengers wanted to lynch the woman. But now, I hear the Civil Aviation Authority, NCAA has decided to sue the woman.”
“I think the NCAA, Ibom Air, air travellers and other stakeholders must see this as a wake-up call to do a lot more to defend consumers’ interest. I get your point about safety: baggage restrictions, not holding up other passengers and the fact that the Uyo airport is a sunset airport, but let’s tell ourselves the truth, airlines in Nigeria have a way of bringing out the worst in everybody.”
“We all know that. We should all just try to be civilized about how we manage our frustrations”
“I hear that the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly has been impeached. He was accused of fraud and abuse of office. Serious drama in Lagos, yesterday. Even his supporters who came from Agege to protect and defend him were whisked away by security agents.”
“And they were singing on your mandate we shall stand…on your mandate!”
“We all know who is standing on what mandate.”
“It can only be the Jagaban himself. The Jagaban of Borgu. The Asiwaju of everywhere. The President-General of Nigeria. Whoever does not know will know. If you have ears that still hear, you will hear: Obleee”
“Whatever. Obasa served for three terms as Speaker. Now his detractors in the House say they want to try another person. A woman has emerged. Mojisola Meranda from Apapa 1 Constituency. First female Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly. Congratulations to her.”
“Does that mean the end of Hon. Mudashiru Obasa’s political career?”
“No. No. No. I won’t say that. His tenure as Speaker yes. Immediately he was impeached, his enemies started removing his pictures from the walls. That is life. Today, people praise you. If you slip a little, they will turn their back on you. But Obasa remains a member of the House. He also remains a political leader in his Agege Constituency. I smell 2027 politics. The moment I heard that he was interested in becoming Governor of Lagos State in 2027, I knew something was going to happen to him.”
“I hear it is the matter between him and Governor Babajide Sanwoolu. The Speaker was becoming too proud for the Governor. When the President came home, he tried to sort things out between them. This is the long hand of the Godfather of Lagos politics. Obasa is a victim of power play.”
“Let us hope he gets some clarity. But no man should be sacrificed for having an ambition. It is a legitimate aspiration to want to be Governor. The Speaker of the House cannot be an errand boy of the Governor. The part of the story that needs to be clarified is this talk about fraud and abuse of office. I want to hear more about that. What did he abuse? Tell us. But it is good news that Lagos now has a Female Speaker of the Lagos House of Assembly. I think I like that”.
“Me too. Congratulations to her.”
“By the way, the West African Examinations Council (WAEC) has introduced resit exams for students who cannot get five credits at the first sitting. Between January and March, they can resit the exam or some papers to enable them make the next round of college admissions, instead of having to wait and lose a whole year.”
“What is in a WAEC exam that a pupil cannot pass at one sitting? Parents should encourage their children to get more serious and stop getting distracted by social media and music. Sit down, read, pass. Which resit? This is how we encourage indolence among secondary school students.”
“Everyone deserves to be given a second chance in life. I support the idea of the early WAEC resit.”
“You will support anything. I am sure you didn’t pass your own school cert at the first attempt. So what do I expect? Olodo people. Anyway, looks like the Super Eagles now have a new head coach.
“Yes. His name is Eric Sekou Chelle. Malian. We will wait and see.”
![[OPINION] A New Beginning in Ghana - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/ca313688e972c37b9a0d072cf93b87de_S.jpg?t=20250107_032703)
It is a new day and a new beginning in Ghana today, January 7, as the country today celebrates the inauguration of President John Dramani Mahama on his second return to the country’s helm of affairs. Mahama was President of Ghana, 2012-2016. He lost the 2016 election to President Nana Addo Akuffo Addo. He lost again in 2020 by a narrow margin of 4.23%. Undeterred he ran again in 2024, which turned out to be his year of luck. In the December 7 Presidential elections, President John Mahama, in the fashion of an impressive comeback kid, led his party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to victory with the biggest margin of victory ever in Ghana’s electoral process in 24 years. His victory was so impressive this time around that by nightfall, his main opponent, then incumbent Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) conceded defeat and congratulated the NDC and President Mahama. Mahama got 6, 328, 397 million of the total votes cast (56.55%), against Bawumia’s 4, 657, 304 million votes (41.61%), clearly one of the best results in Ghana’s Presidential history since the return to multi-party democracy in 1992. History will be made today in Accra, Ghana as President Mahama takes the mantle of office for the second time in his storied political and Presidential career. He will be the first elected Ghanaian President in the Fourth Republic to lose re-election while in office and again after another attempt, only to return at the third attempt to complete the constitutional right to two terms in office. His Vice President, Professor Jane Naana Opoku Agyeman will also be the very first female in Ghana’s history to be Vice President. She is a Professor of Literature, a former Minister of Education (2013-2016) and Chancellor of the Women’s University in Africa, Harare, Zimbabwe. Mahama and Agyeman have already made a mark with their unprecedented victory. This is true despite the fact that no party in Ghana has ever stayed in power for more than two consecutive terms since 1992.
In this particular election, the people of Ghana wanted change. They voted for it, in what was clearly a referendum on President Akuffo-Addo’s eight years in office. When President Mahama left office at the end of his first term in 2016, he left behind an ailing economy, frequent power cuts and corruption scandals. Akuffo Addo’s emergence as winner of the election at the time was touted as a new beginning for Ghana, just as we are doing now, but between 2016 and 2024, in the two terms of the NPP Presidency, the euphoria with which Akuffo-Addo assumed office had turned gradually to dust and despair. In his last State of the Nation address last week, President Addo talked about the achievements of his administration in the mining, forestry and land sectors and how he positioned Ghana on the path of sustainable economic growth, even surpassing South Africa as Africa’s leading gold producer. He was quick to remind everyone that he developed new gold mines in Ahafo and the Upper West Region, and a structured Green Ghana Project. On his watch, Ghana was saddled with an unsustainable debt burden but he managed to restructure over 13 billion dollars in debt in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and other creditors. President Akuffo-Addo was also the exponent of a famous policy phrased as “Ghana Beyond Aid.” One other highlight of his stewardship was the clean-up of the banking sector in Ghana through which he hoped to stabilize the financial sector.
The reality however is that President Akufo-Ado is leaving behind a country that is facing its worst economic crisis in a generation – with inflation at a record 50.3% at a time, the cost of living became so high and unbearable that the average Ghanaian took to the streets. As recently as October 2024, hundreds of people protested on the streets of Accra against illegal gold mining, known as “galamsey”. Unemployment became a source of frustration, and the COVID pandemic merely added to the people’s agony. In 2019, Ghana discovered two more oil fields, but the expected boost in government revenue was shortchanged by the mismanagement of government expenditures and huge budget deficits. Ghana’s debt burden kept rising as the government kept borrowing – it had to take an extended credit facility of $3 billion from the IMF in 2023. The economy kept floundering. Ghana was soon downgraded to junk status by credit rating firms such as Moody’s. President Akuffo-Addo would seem to have presided over the worst economy in Ghana’s Fourth Republic.
It therefore makes sense that the people of Ghana in the December Presidential and parliamentary elections gave a landslide victory to another party, the NDC, which over the decades has switched the baton of power at the centre with the NPP. Akuffo-Addo in the course of his Presidency had eliminated what his team called “nuisance taxes” and also made senior secondary education free for all, but this was not enough. The people of Ghana want their country to work for the benefit of all. In some of the elections in Africa in 2024, we saw a similar pattern of the people voting out the ruling, incumbent party in the expectation that another party would learn the right lessons and serve the people better. We saw this in Botswana, Mauritius, Senegal, Somaliland and also in Ghana. In his acceptance speech. President Mahama promised the people “a new beginning”. His return to the Presidency however is a mix of the old and the new: new wine in an old bottle, and the major challenges that he faces is in meeting the people’s rising expectations. It will take more than flowery rhetoric or triumphalism to fix Ghana’s many problems. More so, President Mahama does not have the luxury of time: he has just four years to make the best use of the opportunity that fortune has brought to him.
Mahama’s story is in many ways inspirational – his single-minded volition especially. This is already giving ideas to some members of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Nigeria by the way, who now believe that if the NDC in Ghana can lose election in 2016, and again in 2020, only to win at the third attempt, then it should be possible for the PDP to do so also in Nigeria. The logic behind this comparison is so weak, it is laughable, simply that events tend to follow the same pattern in both countries and the confidence with which proponents of this assumption push the view is to say the least shocking. There is no standard formula for the political process anywhere in the world. One, the NDC in Ghana is a far more cohesive and coherent party, making it easier for President John Mahama to remain the rallying point from one election to the other. In Nigeria, the PDP has been unable to stand up as a strong opposition party since 2015. The party is yet to put its house in order. It is divided. It has internal democracy issues. Many of its members no longer trust the leadership of the party, at either the national or grassroots level. No one is sure of the future direction of the party: will the PDP form a coalition with other political parties? If so, who will lead that process? The PDP has not recovered from the trauma of its loss in the 2015, 2019 and 2023 elections. Who will now renew the party?
A quiet undertone to this conversation is that perhaps the PDP can take power back from the APC in 2027 if it agrees unanimously to field President Goodluck Jonathan as Presidential candidate. At least one Governor: Senator Bala Muhammad of Bauchi State has openly made the suggestion that the return of President Jonathan could be a game changer, an alternative to President Tinubu and the APC in 2027. President Jonathan and President Mahama have a lot in common. They both lost elections and gracefully stepped aside. They have both had brilliant post-Presidency careers both locally and internationally. And so the reasoning is that if President Mahama can return for another term of four years, President Jonathan can do so too. They make it sound so simple and logical but no one has bothered to ask two questions: One, is President Jonathan himself interested in the vicious struggle for power in Nigeria? In the leadership matrix, perhaps it is the people that matter most, not the politician. It should be noted that President Jonathan is the main reference for many Nigerians looking for prosperity. Nigeria was a much better country during his Presidency. He made Nigeria the leading economy in Africa. The Naira was stable. People could afford to eat garri and buy rice and other staple food items. Are people regretting voting him out? The answer is yes. President Buhari that came after him failed to impress the people. Even now President Tinubu’s reforms are biting so hard and the people have become so nervous it is common to find nostalgic longings for the good old days of President Jonathan in office. However, Ghana is considered a stable democracy, and the last electoral process was largely peaceful. Nigeria’s democracy is a different kind of game. Two, why is anyone so sure that the APC and President Tinubu would simply watch and allow anyone else take power away from them? Of course, they will fight to hold on to the reins of power. Mega opposition parties may emerge in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections, but Nigerian politicians can compromise their own ambitions even if the deal is right. Nothing is straightforward in the jungle of Nigerian politics.
Meanwhile, the global community is celebrating with Ghana today, which along with Senegal, presents a good story about democracy in West Africa in 2024, unlike the democratic reversal that was seen in Guinea, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The programme of activities for President Mahama’s inauguration began on January 4, 2025 including victory celebration in all constituencies, a victory walk in Accra, a victory concert at the forecourt of the University of Ghana Sports Stadium, National Muslim prayers at the National Mosque, Kanda and all mosques across the country, and a National Thanksgiving Service to be held at the Independence Square on Sunday, January 12. Today, President John Mahama and Vice-President elect Professor Jane Naana Opoku Agyeman will take the oath of office as President and Vice President of Ghana respectively for the next four years, and receive the insignia of office in the presence of members of Parliament, citizens of Ghana and the local and global community. Since their election, both winners have been inundated with messages of congratulations from countries across the world. For the inauguration today, the European Union is sending a five-man delegation led by the Foreign Affairs Minister of Belgium, Bernard Quintin, the US delegation is led by Ms. Shalanda D. Young, the Director of the US Office of Management and Budget, and there will be Presidents and diplomats from across the African continent. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is already in Ghana to attend the inauguration in his capacity as Nigeria’s President, and Chairman of ECOWAS. This is a special occasion for the people of Ghana, a victory as well. Ghana is draped in the colours of the NDC of red, white and black, from the party’s headquarters in Adabraka to the streets of Accra.
When the ceremony is done and over, President Mahama must settle down to work in earnest. It is clear enough that there is a lot to be done. Already ahead of the inauguration, he has nominated Alban Sumana Kingsford Bagbin as Speaker of the 9th Parliament after due consultations with NDC party executives and parliamentary leaders. Bagbin, MP Nadowli, was Speaker of the 8th Parliament. He is an experienced lawmaker. President Mahama has also announced a six-member Interim National Security Coordinating team, led by former Minister for the Interior, Mr. Prosper Douglas Bani. Mahama is in familiar territory. He should act just as swiftly in announcing his cabinet. He must resist the temptation to fall into the same pitfalls as other African leaders: he needs not look backwards, he should look to the future and provide better pathways for the people of Ghana. He has his plate full: a sovereign debt burden, crisis in the energy sector, and an army of disillusioned youths. He needs to rebuild trust.
What next for President Nana Akuffo-Ado? No matter how mixed and controversial President Akuffo-Ado’s legacy may be, there is no doubt that he will continue to remain a major force in his own party, the NPP, and in Ghana’s political process. He has been in politics since his days as a university student, and he ran for the Presidency on two different occasions, 2008, 2012, losing to the NDC, until he won in 2016. He has now completed his constitutional two terms in office today. He would be remembered for his dignified presentations on the international scene and the fact that he was generally a well-meaning, urbane leader. His credentials as a statesman should stand him in good stead, both in Ghana and in international diplomacy. His era as President is over. He should be able to find meaning out of Presidential office.
![[OPINION] Winners And Losers Of 2024 - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/7cd48fe8cf34f09d835f7efb50b0180a_S.jpg?t=20241231_070054)
The year is almost over. The year 2024 is ending. In different parts of the world the countdown has begun, with elaborate fireworks heralding the beginning of a New Year 2025. The year 2024 was eventful. And we could all mostly look back and wonder how it passed so quickly. It was a year of winners and losers, as is the case with every year and as it would be with the years to come, reminding us all of the inexorable march of fate and time. We live. We die. We grow. We wither. We fall ill. We heal. Man is at the mercy of nature and the environment, his own exertions and his imagination. But whatever is anyone’s individual fortune, life goes on all the same, hanging on to the thread of optimism. Humanity is sustained by the resolve that man, having positioned himself as the master of the universe, can always learn, do better and surpass his own expectations.
2024 was the year of elections - held at national, general and local levels in more than 100 countries of the world with far-reaching implications for politics and cultural relations at various levels. Elections were held in some of the most populous countries including India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, Bangladesh and the United States, with a total of about four billion eligible voters, about half of the world’s population, and up to 1.7 billion actually turning out to cast their ballots in all the continents. This clearly confirms the continuing strength of the democratic ideal, or the popularity of democracy, but observed patterns differed from one part of the world to the other. For example, most incumbent parties lost their popular standing even if they retained power as in France, South Korea, India, or to start close to home, South Africa, where the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost the majority status it had maintained since the end of apartheid rule in 1994 due in part to growing disenchantment with the ANC and deep-seated divisions within the party which saw former President Jacob Zuma being a decisive factor, with his breakaway MK party.
Other notable elections in Africa included that of Tunisia in October which brought President Kais Saied back to power with a low voter turn-out of 29%, the lowest since the Revolution. In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame won a fourth term in office in a curious reminder of how African leaders try to sit tight in office beyond constitutional term limits. He manipulated the Rwandan Constitution to remain in power. In Algeria, in September, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune was re-elected with 94.7 percent of the vote. Earlier in April, Togo held its parliamentary elections. The ruling Union for the Republic, won 108 of the 113 seats to tighten President Faure Gnassingbe’s hold on power. The situation was the same in Chad in May with President Mahamat Idriss Deby as winner. In Mozambique, in October, the FRELIMO party which had ruled the country since 1975, also held on to power declaring 47-year-old Daniel Chapo as President. The country subsequently degenerated into chaos and protests. The main opposition leader, Eduardo Mondlane fled into exile and has sworn to get himself into power on inauguration day on January 15, although it remains unclear how he intends to achieve that. The elections in Mozambique were believed to have been rigged and manipulated. There was more positive news, however, from Senegal, Botswana, Namibia, and Ghana. In Senegal in March, Bassirou Diomaye Faye won 54% of the Presidential votes just 10 days after he was released from prison. Senegal’s story was a demonstration of the power of the people.
In Namibia’s general election, Dec 3, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, incumbent Vice President, and member of the ruling SWAPO party, was declared winner, making her Namibia’s first female President, thus adding to the number of women in Africa who have served as President: Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf (Liberia), Samia Suluhu Hassan (Tanzania), Joyce Hilda Banda (Malawi) and Sahle-Woek Zewde (Ethiopia). In Ghana, President John Dramani Mahama defeated the ruling party’s candidate, incumbent Vice President Mahamud Bawumia, who in a manner reminiscent of Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s gesture in 2015, conceded defeat even before the results were announced by the country’s electoral commission. Senegal and Ghana are arguably two of the most stable democracies in Africa. But whatever successes may have been recorded with democracy in Africa in the year 2024 was sadly abbreviated by the spectre of democratic retreat and the return of military rule in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan and Guinea. This has disrupted the political order in West Africa. ECOWAS, the regional economic bloc has also been diminished with the declared exit of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, now forming an Alliance of Sahel States (AES). In July 2024, the military junta in Burkina Faso further extended their stay in power by another five years. As ECOWAS prepares for its 50thanniversary in 2025, it remains a divided body, and the region, an emerging landscape for proxy conflicts between major powers: Russia, France, China and the United States.
In other parts of the world, from India to France, India, Japan and Britain, voters voted for change with concerns about leadership and the economy as major issues. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, the BJP, may have survived in India, but not with a majority. Modi’s party had to form a coalition government. Elections led to riots in Georgia. In South Korea, former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s frustration with the domineering presence of an opposition coalition in parliament led him to impose a martial law. The people rebelled. In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party also lost its majority status in parliament. In Britain in July, the British voted out the Conservatives, and gave the centre-left Labour Party a landslide victory. In France, Austria, Romania, the European Parliament and elsewhere we also saw the rise of either far-right or far-left tendencies lending the politics of 2024 a toga of anti-immigration sentiments and nationalism if not isolationism. In France, the government collapsed at a point. In Germany, the Chancellor, Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote. But perhaps the most impactful election in the world in 2024, was that of the United States which brought President Donald Trump back to power. Trump survived two assassination attempts, and went on to win a landslide victory. He and the Republicans regained power. President Joe Biden had to step down for Vice President Kamala Harris who put up a valiant and courageous fight, but not enough to dislodge Trump’s nationalistic, America First rhetoric. Given America’s status as a superior power in the world, Trump’s Presidency would be a major determinant of global politics in 2025. Trump has promised to impose trade tariffs and sanctions on not just China, Mexico and Canada, but literally the whole world. He wants to take back the Panama Canal. He wants to buy Greenland. Democracy survived and thrived in 2024, but the global outlook was bumpy.
Nigeria marked the 25th anniversary of its return to democratic rule. The people’s reflection was one of mixed blessings. There may have been gains in terms of the democratic process, but Nigeria’s democracy has also produced sharp divisions within the polity, and the old fault lines of nepotism, religion and ethnicity are far from disappearing. In the Gubernatorial elections held in Edo State and Ondo state, the country’s challenges with its leadership recruitment process were writ large. In Edo state, the incumbent ruling party in the state, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) lost despite having a more accomplished candidate in the person of Asue Ighodalo. Analysts of the Edo state election alleged that the PDP lost to the all-conquering Federal Might of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) in power at the centre. In Ondo State, by the same token, it could not have been imagined that the APC would lose power to the PDP. Notably, incumbent political parties won overwhelmingly in all the states where local government elections were conducted in 2024. Twenty-five years after the return to democratic rule, Nigerian politicians remain set in their ways, with little evidence that anyone has learnt any lessons. This has prompted demands from civil society groups that indeed ahead of the 2027 elections, Nigeria’s electoral framework, a permanent work in progress, would have to be further amended. For a long time to come, the character of Nigerian politics would remain umbilically linked to the character of the people themselves. Not even the traditional institutions are spared, as seen in the interplay of law, community and politics in the city of Kano with the reinstatement of Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as the Sarkin Kano. The city became divided, with two brothers laying claim to the same throne.
But beyond power play, perhaps the major concern in Nigeria in 2024 was the general insecurity in the country: physical, economic, and geographical. The government was wont to claim that the spate of kidnappings, banditry and random violence had reduced under its watch, but 2024 was perhaps the year that the pangs of hunger hit the average Nigerian most. The dynamic in the Nigerian economy resulted in high interest rates, unemployment, no money in the banks and the people’s pockets, with more people sliding into poverty. More than 31 million people, by official estimates, suffered from acute food insecurity. The figure was probably much higher as the Nigerian economy, inflation at over 34% by November, became a palliatives-economy. Many died while struggling for free food, with the year ending with the death of about 115 persons who lost their lives in Ibadan, Okija and Abuja in food stampedes. The gap between the poor and the rich couldn’t have been wider. Nonetheless, one major winning story of 2024 was the coming on stream of the much-anticipated Dangote Refinery. The Refinery is billed to produce 650, 000 barrels of fuel per day helping to address the problem of energy security, and foreign exchange savings in the country. But the Nigerian middle class had shrunk so much further, that the pump price of fuel, at over N1,000 per litre, was one of the sources of agony for Nigerians in 2024.
It may be said all things considered, whatever agony or deprivation Nigerians may have gone through in 2024, this was nothing compared to the threat to global peace on the international scene. With the October 7, 2023 escalation of hostilities between Israel and the Hamas in Gaza, that part of the world has known no peace. Its people are victims of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the last decade. Over 40, 000 persons have lost their lives. Throughout 2024, the world watched as Israel continued with its campaign of total annihilation, and by the end of the year, the conflict had engulfed the entire region. Israel has had to fight on many fronts: the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and even Iran, raising fears of the possibility of World War III. The much-anticipated world war did not happen, but the Middle East remains a zone of horror. The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad on December 8, merely added fuel to the crisis. Israel has been on the offensive as it seeks to take advantage of the uncertainty in Syria to establish itself as the dominant power in the region. Israel has reduced Hezbollah, more or less eliminated Hamas and virtually taken control of parts of Syria. Thus, effectively in 2024, Israel managed to shut down Iran’s Axis of Resistance. The Russian-Ukraine war continues, and in all the theatres of war, the victims are the people. Global peace is disrupted, the impact of the disruptions is felt thousands of miles away. Global peace hangs on a balance; the world tetters on the brink. It was also the year that the economic cooperation group -BRICS admitted four new members including Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates, as part of the move by the group to create an alternative global payment system, and to change the existing global order. NATO admitted a new member, Sweden in March 2024, bringing its membership number to 32.
For happier stories in 2024, we probably should look in other directions, sports for example. France hosted the Paris Olympics, and delivered to global delight one of the most memorable Olympics in modern times. The Nigerian contingent did not win medals at the main Olympics, due to the usual stories of mismanagement and sloppiness, forgetting to register Favour Ofili for the 100 metres race and one of our athletes – cyclist Ese Lovina Ukpeseraye- having to borrow a bicycle from the German team, but the D’Tigress, Nigeria’s women’s basketball team reached the quarter finals, the first African basketball team to do so at the Olympics. The team’s coach Rena Wakama was named the best female basketball coach at the games. Nigeria’s main moments at the Olympics were later recorded in the Paralympics with the stunning performance of the Nigerian contingent winning a total of seven medals. Folashade Oluwafemiayo won gold medals in para-power lifting, while Eniola Bolaji, 18 years old, became the first African to win a medal in para-badminton. It was also the year of Elizabeth Osoba, Nigeria;’s first female boxing world champion. Nor would anyone forget in a hurry the heroism of Ademola Lookman and his phenomenal achievements. He was crowned the 2024 CAF African Footballer of the Year. In May, he scored a hat trick to win the UEFA Europa League for Atalanta beating Bayer Leverkusen. He was shortlisted for the Ballon d’Or, finishing 14th on the final list. Internationally, it was also the year of Max Verstappen who secured his fourth consecutive title in Formula One Grand Prix. It was also the year of Rafael Nadal, winner of 22 Grand Slam titles. He retired in November, one of the greats who played tennis in the modern era. Other standout sporting champions of 2024 include Rodri (Ballon d’Or), Aitana Bonmati, (Ballon d’Or), Lamine Yamal, Vinicius Junior (FIFA Men’s Player of the Year), Keely Hodgkinson, Barbra Banda, and Carlo Ancelotti.
For many Nigerians, it was by all means an exciting year in entertainment. Nigerian artistes: Davido, Wizkid, Burna Boy, Asake, Ayra Starr, Tems, Rema and others at every turn placed Nigeria’s name on the global map. In filmmaking, Femi Adebayo, with two movies, Jagun Jagun and Seven Doors stretched the scope of possibilities and creativity in Nollywood. David Oriakhi was brilliant with the film, The Weekend. Funke Akindele ended the year on a good note with her exciting film, Everybody Loves Jenifa, a strong reminder of the enormous value and potential of Nigeria’s creative sector. In Lagos, Bolanle Austen-Peters Terra Kulture, remained the go-to venue for cultural revival. All said, people may have experienced vastly different fortunes in the year 2024, but for surviving the year, we are all winners. What a year! What a relief! Here is to a new year of hope and better promise…
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![[OPINION] Tinubu And The Future Of ECOWAS - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/e6c7683572ee0959eedbe4454d879fe2_XS.jpg?t=20241217_105801)
Two major meetings were held over the weekend that just passed that have implications for the future of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the possible resolution or otherwise of political developments among member-states in the last two to three years, with implications for the future of the sub-regional organization. ECOWAS was established in May 1975, when 15 West African states signed the Treaty of Lagos to establish a platform for the promotion of economic integration. This particular treaty was revised on July 24 1993, but the essential purpose of ECOWAS has remained consistent: trade facilitation, free movement of persons and goods, solidarity, promotion of human rights and peace. The sixteenth member joined in 1977, making the membership 16. In addition to its many guidelines and principles, ECOWAS has a general framework which also guides protocols and relations among members. In July 1991, it adopted the Declaration of Political Principles as a cardinal rule, and in 2001, the ECOWAS Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. One of those protocols is the underlying trigger for this commentary, to wit: the principle of customary international law enshrined in Article 2 (4) of the 1945 UN Charter which binds member-states against the use of force as a means of changing governments, in the absence of armed attack or self-defence. In 1978, ECOWAS signed a protocol on non-aggression against member states and in 1981, members agreed that in the event of any act of aggression against a member, they would come together in mutual self-defence and protect the victim-state to ensure peace, security and stability, by military means if possible and if inevitable, as seen in the interventions of ECOMOG in Liberia (1990) and Sierra Leone (1998). Even the African Union (AU) enabled by its Article 4(h) can be called upon to intervene when the basic protocols have been breached. This however is a slightly complicated area of the subject which we need not bring into this commentary.
What we know is that ECOWAS specifically sees pro-democratic intervention as its bounden duty, but the effectuation of this has been a problem in the sub-region over the years and to cite a recent example, in 2016, when ECOWAS threatened to deploy a standby ECOWAS force in The Gambia to restore the people’s wish if Yahya Jammeh refused to leave office. Jammeh was eased out and a standby force did not have to intervene. But a turning point came for ECOWAS when the military seized power in Mali in 2020 and 2021, Guinea in 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in July 2023. ECOWAS, with Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu as Chair, thought it needed to intervene to return these countries to democracy, the rise of military juntas in the sub-region being a threat to democratic consolidation. ECOWAS suspended the states in line with its protocols and proceeded to impose political and economic sanctions. It threatened to deploy troops if it became necessary. This was an act of political miscalculation.
In the four countries, there were civilian protests against ECOWAS, particularly in former French colonies of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. The more interesting part of it is that the ECOWAS was accused of being too pro-French. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, the people publicly denounced continued association with France and specifically in Niger, the people openly waved Russian flags and pulled down French flags. From Senegal to Niger, a wave of rebellion erupted in the former colonies, in what signalled a creeping failure of French relations with its former colonies in Africa. Senegal has had to shut down French military bases to assert its sovereignty, in Burkina Faso the military junta revoked gold permits that had been awarded to French companies, in Niger, the government similarly cancelled the mining permit of Orano, the French nuclear producer that runs the uranium mines in that country. In addition, Niger revoked its tax co-operation treaties with France as also did Mali, which broke off from its defence accord with France, and its 11 colonial agreements with the former overlord. In the vacuum created by these new realities, Russia and its Wagner group became the favourite partner of former French colonies in West Africa. The Sahel region has been a hotbed of violence and terrorism and naturally, there were concerns about the implications of the presence of Russia and Wagner in the sub-region and the festering anti-West sentiments in the backyard of ECOWAS members. ECOWAS eventually had to review its threat of sanctions, and military action and adopted the options of diplomacy and dialogue. This achieved little or nothing. In January 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced their decision to quit ECOWAS. They formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as their own confederation as an alternative to ECOWAS. Their departure under Article 91 of the Revised ECOWAS Treaty would become effective on January 29, 2025. The resort to diplomacy, an afterthought by ECOWAS also yielded no results. In July, ECOWAS appointed President Bassirou Faye of Senegal as the mediator with the aggrieved countries. President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo was also sent on diplomatic shuttles to Niger. President Tinubu as ECOWAS Chairman, also sent other envoys to the Sahel.
Barely a month to the January deadline, there was a meeting of Ministers of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in Niamey last Saturday, December 14, where they reiterated that the departure of the three countries from ECOWAS, effective January 29, 2025 is “irreversible.” They however also resolved that the three countries would remain visa-free for all ECOWAS countries after the exit. While the latter resolution may alleviate fears about the free movement of goods and services, there is still the residual challenge of insecurity in the Sahel, and the threat of a further tumultuous season in that part of West Africa with wider implications for regional peace. It is perhaps out of this realization that the Authority of Heads of State and Governments at its 66th Ordinary Summit last weekend, Sunday, December 15 at the State House in Abuja, decided to vary Article 91 of the Revised Treaty and granted the departing trio an extension of six months from January 29 to July 29. This is basically to create room for further diplomatic negotiations in the hope that the three countries can be brought back into the fold. In Niamey, on Saturday, the AES Ministers still made it clear that ECOWAS leaders are too subservient to France. Without being specific, they may well have been referring to President Tinubu who recently returned from France where he was treated to a lavish and grand reception by President Emmanuel Macron. It remains to be seen whether the AES would reverse itself. It is a long wait but as certain as daylight, July 29, 2025 would soon be upon us. In the meantime, the ECOWAS Commission has been directed to begin work on the necessary withdrawal formalities, while the mediator continues with last-ditch efforts to keep the dream of the founding fathers of ECOWAS alive, giving the AES an opportunity to have a re-think.
It is further instructive that at the ECOWAS meeting of Heads of States and Governments, President Tinubu, Chairman, took time out to praise the just concluded general elections in Ghana and parliamentary elections in Senegal. He even praised Ghana’s Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) who conceded defeat to the candidate of the opposition, President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). He praised the government and people of Ghana for their maturity. This was a subtle dig at the leaders of the West African countries where the military chose to resort to force and aggression. Without a doubt, the rise of military juntas poses a threat to democracy in West Africa and peace in the region. The romance of the juntas with Russia and China dangerously positions the region as a territory for proxy conflicts among major Western powers. It is an ill-wind. ECOWAS needs to do more to persuade the errant countries to restore constitutional order. The leaders also need to reinvent and retool the organization.
By next July, it will be 50 years since ECOWAS was established. It would be pertinent to ask: how has the body fared? Has it so far fulfilled the ambitions of its founding fathers? Today, only one of those leaders who established ECOWAS in 1975 is still alive. Would General Yakubu Gowon of Nigeria be proud of what ECOWAS has become? What are the challenges facing the body? How can it be reformed? Mutual suspicion among the various blocs: Anglophone, Francophone and the Lusophone has been a major issue for ECOWAS: how can the goal of integration be better realized? In 50 years, whatever the challenges may have been, it can be said that ECOWAS has been pivotal in forging cooperation, integration and trade within the region. ECOWAS in 2010 adopted Vision 2020, and also later a Vision 2050 roadmap to deepen the original objectives of the association. There may have been challenges: insecurity in the Sahel, Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin, Ebola, COVID-19 and the emergent threat of military juntas, but on the whole, the main achievements of the body deserve to be celebrated. ECOWAS fought to restore peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and has been vocal in insisting on good governance. There are hitches in person-to-person relations within the body, over trade, commerce and space, but the free movement of goods and services has been largely beneficial. ECOWAS ranks probably as the most successful regional economic bloc in the continent, in terms of conflict management.
But ECOWAS has lost steam. It needs re-organization. It is unfortunate that the same ECOWAS that acted decisively in Liberia, Sierra Leone and The Gambia is now the same body that is now being treated scornfully by a group of military adventurists who have reversed democratic progress in the Sahel. Their effrontery is fuelled by the descent into poverty and anomie in their countries. The clamour for change that compelled the people of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Niger to embrace the military is simply their frustration with the leaders in those countries. The people seek change and they embrace it in whatever shape it presents itself, with high expectations too, because they no longer trust their leaders who have alienated them and placed a greater accent on their own elite well-being rather than the common good for the people’s benefit. The people are led by persons who promote injustice, inequality, nepotism. They rig elections and do not allow the people’s vote to count. When the military intervenes, the people see the intervention as a form of liberation from the shackles of oppression. In Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, they trooped to the streets in jubilation, almost like the situation today in Syria with the fall of Bashar Assad and the Assad dynasty, one of the most murderous ruling houses in the Middle East which clung to power for 54 years. In Mali in August 2020, when Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was removed in a military coup over allegations of corruption, fraud and electoral violence, the people were joyous. They carried placards saying “This isn’t a coup. It is a Revolution”. There was yet another coup in May 2021. Similarly in Niger in 2023, thousands of people gathered to hail the generals who led the coup in that country. The urgent matter that West Africa needs to resolve is the challenge of good leadership and governance.
There is a need at the organizational level for a re-dedication to the ideals of ECOWAS, and to develop a higher sense of belonging among the member-states and the over 420 million people that make up the region. As ECOWAS steps into its 50thyear, it is in urgent need of reform and we need to see the members being faithful. At the last meeting of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of States and Governments, Omar Alieu Touray, President of the ECOWAS Commission, commended Nigeria for having paid up its community levies for 2023, with the 2024 levy paid up to July this year. He advised other member states to emulate Nigeria’s example. I guess it has become a habit among ECOWAS members to allow Nigeria to do the heavy lifting in terms of funding while others tag along and yet enjoy the benefits of membership. It is important that all parties pay their levies as and when due. The various structures of the body must be overhauled to ensure equity and deepen trade facilitation. The ideals of free movement of persons across the region should be enhanced. It must be possible for any national of an ECOWAS state to live and work in any of the member states without being subjected to undue discrimination or harassment. The celebration of ECOWAS at 50 must be an occasion for sober reflection and renewal. President Bola Tinubu was elected for a second term as Chairman of ECOWAS in July 2024. He would preside over the 50th anniversary celebrations before handing over the seat in July 2025. He may have listed some of his achievements as ECOWAS Chairman at the 66th Ordinary session in Abuja; he would be required to give a fuller account of his tenure and the status of ECOWAS as part of the 50th anniversary. There is a lot more that can be done.
![[OPINION] Ghana: John Mahama’s Return - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/0252d7aca126638a039af1afda4d52e5_XS.jpg?t=20241210_083459)
There seems to be an emerging pattern in some of the major elections conducted in Africa so far, hinting at an emergent character of democracy in the continent, and this would seem to be the people’s seeming determination to change incumbent ruling parties or whittle down their influence or remove them altogether, and at the base of this is a certain streak of nostalgia for the past. In May, South Africa held its general elections and for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority, receiving less than 50% of the votes. It therefore found itself in the uncomfortable situation of having to negotiate with the centrist Democratic Alliance, the Jacob Zuma-led uMkhonto Sizwe (MK), the Inkatha Freedom Party and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) to be able to form a national unity government. Former President Jacob Zuma said he and the MK would not be part of any alliance. Zuma was indeed the nemesis of the ANC.
He is the overlord of politics in KwaZulu Natal, having left the ANC in December 2023. Ramaphosa survived the anti-ANC onslaught but it remains to be seen for how long the government of national unity would last, a similar arrangement having failed in the past. There was yet another upheaval in Botswana in October 2024 when the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) which had ruled the country since independence in 1966, lost woefully to the Umbrella for Democratic Change Coalition, producing Duma Boko (54) as President, with a majority 36 seats in the 61-seat parliament. The BDP was reduced to four seats! Former President Ian Khama (2008 – 2018) was, as in South Africa with Zuma, a major factor in the Botswana election. He had appointed Mokgweetsi Masisi as Vice President in 2014, and when his tenure expired in 2018, Khama supported Matsisi to succeed him. When Matsisi assumed office, however, he simply went after Ian Khama, and ended up reversing his policies, and drove him into exile in 2021. In October 2024, Khama returned with a determination to unseat Matsisi. It was not his candidate that won in the end, but he achieved his aim all the same and the Umbrella for Democratic Change was not unknown to him, having worked with that same party in 2019 to secure victory for Matsisi. And now in Ghana, over the weekend, former President John Dramani Mahama has been overwhelmingly re-elected as President for another term of four years. The people of Ghana looked back and looked into the future and concluded that Mahama is best suited to take them into the future.
Beyond the conflict of political interest and power blocs in the three countries isolated for illustration is the resolve of the people to defend their votes and make a choice, by trying possible alternatives. In Botswana, the economy was in the doldrums, the government’s treasury was almost empty. Government hospitals had run out of funds and facilities. Corruption was on stilts, institutions were prostrate. In other words, the state of the economy was a major issue in Botswana as it was also in South Africa. Over 80% of the registered voters in Botswana turned up on polling day. In June, in South Africa, voter’s behaviour was dictated not strictly by the in-fighting within the original ANC but by a number of complex and related factors, top of which is the fact that the people’s expectations had not really been met by the ruling ANC. The people wanted jobs and a better life. The ANC had offered them a high unemployment rate with many of the youths jobless. Trust in the ruling party is also important to the electorate, and the people were no longer as trustful of Ramaphosa and the ANC to create jobs, get them the social grants that they need and address corruption in official corridors. On election day, voter turnout was 58.6%, the lowest ever in 30 years, a reflection of the people’s discontent. The ANC got 40.18% of the votes, and Ramaphosa returned but the people had made a statement about their discontent. Last Saturday in Ghana, voter turn-out was estimated at 61%, and that is considered the lowest in that country in the last three elections. Outgoing President Nana Akuffo-Addo presided over such a bad economy in a generation with high inflation, unemployment and huge, almost unpayable debts that the people angrily voted out his party, the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
The only exceptions to the pattern described so far would seem to be the general elections in Mozambique on October 9, 2024, and in Namibia, 27 – 30 November 2024. Turn out in Mozambique was put at 43%, with many outrightly boycotting the election in the North and in Namibia, turnout was 76.48%. In Mozambique, FRELIMO retained its 58 years of authoritarian hold on the country, and in Namibia, SWAPO remained immovable even if it produced its first female President, incumbent Vice President, SWAPO veteran, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Analysts have noted that the elections in both countries cannot be considered free and fair, but where the voters were allowed to choose and defend their votes, the people spoke loudly through the ballot to the key point that the people are the mainstay of the democratic process. The challenge for African leaders is to provide an enabling environment for democracy to thrive, for good governance, and for building trust with the people. And when it is election time, to allow the people to make their choice.
There have been many comments on the just concluded elections in neighbouring Ghana, focusing on the lessons that Nigerians can possibly learn from Ghana. I think there are lessons both ways, starting with the Nigerian example. It is refreshing to see that even long before the Electoral Commission of Ghana announced the final results and declared the winner, the candidate of the ruling party, NPP, and incumbent Vice President, Mahamudu Bawumia conceded defeat and congratulated President John Mahama, his main opponent of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). “The people have voted for change”, Bawumia said. This display of sportsmanship reminds us of the example of President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 general elections in Nigeria. President Jonathan not only congratulated General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), he also said famously that his political ambition was not worth the shedding of anyone’s blood. In 2016, a year later, when President John Mahama lost Ghana’s Presidential election of that year, he also quietly relinquished power and handed over to President Nana Akufo-Addo. Between the two countries, there seems to be an emerging realization that the people’s will, whatever may be the circumstances, must be respected. President Jonathan has since gone ahead to build a stronger reputation as a democrat and elder statesman in the West African sub-region and beyond. In an election cycle when we have seen a former President, Donald Trump returning to power in the United States, and President Mahama in Ghana, it is not impossible that there would be some Nigerians out there saying that President Jonathan is entitled to an out-standing possible second term and should also make a bid to return to office as Nigeria’s President. This would however depend on an interplay of factors. The onus is on President Tinubu and the APC not to unwittingly invoke a nostalgia for either President Jonathan and/or the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) among Nigerians.
The second lesson that Ghana had supposedly learnt from Nigeria was pointed out by the Chairman of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu who was in Ghana as a guest and observer. In a widely circulated video, he said Ghana has learnt from Nigeria how to manage constituency election results. Results are announced in the constituencies. Only Presidential election results are sent to Accra for announcement. This comment has drawn a backlash, with many of Professor Yakubu’s critics telling him that on the contrary he is the one who needs to learn lessons from Ghana’s management of the electoral process. For example, voting materials arrived early and the voting process was smooth. In Nigeria, voting is always a tug of war. In Ghana, even if there were scuffles in some constituencies, this was nothing compared to the Nigerian situation where persons resort to raw violence. Election in Nigeria is often a security operation, heavily militarized. In Ghana, the people drove soldiers away from polling stations. They insisted that an election should be a civilian operation. In places where the soldiers were confronted and scuffles ensued, we saw the Ghanaian soldiers not shooting anyone, even when they carried weapons. If any Nigerian voter displayed such boldness to challenge Nigerian soldiers at a polling unit, there would have been bloodshed! The Electoral Commission of Ghana also deployed technology, but this did not become an excuse for abuse as has been the case repeatedly in Nigeria. Those voters whose names were missing in the register on polling day, were still accredited through a back-end database, and allowed to vote. In Nigeria, it is either the notorious BVAS would fail or the INEC server would malfunction due to “technical glitches”. There have been no deafening reports of vote buying indicating that the Ghanaian voter is far more sophisticated, and that democracy in Ghana is more stable. A total of 18. 6 million registered voters, 13 candidates representing nine political parties, 4 independent candidates, with the NPP and NDC emerging as the. dominant two parties – the option of independent candidacy is an area in which Nigeria can learn from Ghana to make our political process more inclusive.
Despite the push-back that Professor Mahmood Yakubu may have received, he identified a lesson for Nigeria that seems noteworthy: which is his comment that politicians in Ghana are faithful to their political parties. They do not move from one political party to the other every election season. The reverse is the case in Nigeria because here, our political parties are Special Purpose Vehicles, organized to win by any means. Nigerian politics is not ideology-based. Politicians would rather use any political platform that would get them into power. Nigeria’s political parties are united by this singular aim, and that is why after every general election, it doesn’t take long before our politicians migrate into the ruling party. In Ghana there is a more enduring tradition of political identity. Prof. Yakubu obviously knows what he is talking about in this regard: names are constantly moving around on the INEC register. President John Mahama lost election in 2016 on the platform of the NDC, he lost again in 2020 on the platform of the same party, and now in 2024, at third attempt, he has emerged victorious. If he were a Nigerian politician, he would have been all over the political space, gambling for opportunity. But he stayed within the NDC, and helped to build it into a winning machinery.
We join others in congratulating him. His victory has resulted in much singing and dancing across Ghana. There are no politicians threatening to contest the outcome in the courts. The people of Ghana, however, should be cautiously optimistic. When President Mahama lost his bid for a second term in the 2016 general election, the key reason was the poor state of the Ghanaian economy, high unemployment rate and the failure of the country’s electricity system. Those problems have not disappeared, they only became worse under President Nana Akuffo-Addo who got so distracted he even commissioned a statue in his own honour in Sekondi in the Western Region. That statue must fall. It must be pulled down, to purge Akuffo-Addo of his own delusions. President Mahama also has to manage the people’s expectations. Ghanaians are looking for a miracle-working President who will offer them a better life. But there are no miracles anywhere. It is a good thing that Mahama has significant experience on the job having been President (2012 -2017), Vice President (2009 – 2012), Minister for Communications (1998 -2001), Deputy Minister for Communications (1997 – 1998), and Member of Parliament for Bole (1997 -2009). He knows the system. He knows Ghana. He has proven ability. Still, he must act carefully. He must resist the temptation to over-promise and seek to over-impress. He must take his time to study the same system that he is familiar with all over again. He knows Nigeria, being a High Chief of Offa Kingdom in Kwara state -Aare Atolase of Offa - and given his close relationships with the country, for a start, he should reflect on the experience so far of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Tinubu was in so much of a hurry, he started introducing reforms from his very first day in office, reforms which have now thrown the people into the deep end. The best reform that a leader can embark upon is in the minds of the people: to build trust and deliver the fruits of good governance. President Mahama should run an inclusive government, and accommodate the finest shades of opinions.
Students of Ghana’s politics and history would be better placed to give a more definitive history of President Nana Akufo-Addo’s legacy, a verdict which should be kinder in good time - his commitment to democracy, his Pan-Africanism, his Ghana beyond aid rhetoric, his management of the COVID-19 challenge, his establishment of six additional regions and his robust presence in international affairs. With Mahama, as President, Nigerians can have their own expectations too: better relations with a country with which we share so much in common. Our brother from Offa, has won 6.3 million polls, a historic 56.55% of the votes, an emphatic victory. President Mahama has been given an opportunity to rewrite his own legacy: at home and abroad. He should not squander it.
![[OPINION] Tinubu’s Tax Reform Bills And Other Stories - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/9ab555418e449069611fad7e56af2531_XS.jpg?t=20241203_062211)
“Bros, I dey hail oh”
“I dey greet. What’s up?”
“We couldn’t finish our gist last week. But since then, so much has happened. That is why I am calling. Just to pick your brains, bro.”
“You will have to let me finish this bowl of hot piping amala and orisirisi before it gets cold, and then we can talk.”
“You and food. Apparently, there is no food inflation on your side. With the serious food inflation in the country and the cancer of hunger messing up many families under Tinubu, you still get a chance to swallow dollops and draw soup.”
“It is God. Even though I walk in the valley of the shadow of death…Psalm 23 is sufficient for every child of God. In the midst of darkness, and enemies, the good Lord provides for His own. Let me enjoy my amala and ewedu soup. When I worship my stomach, I am also invariably worshipping God and preparing for heaven. Not to deceive you, this amala is going to the very right parts of my stomach”
“Glutton. Wackie and quench”
“Hmm. Ha..Uh. Hu. Ech hen. Hen Hen. Who did you say killed the mother of Jesus Christ? Ha. Ha aaa”
“Food will not kill you one day. You better drink some water.”
“Hen. Hen Jesus is Lord”
“I am actually trying to tell you that the Lord has done it. Port Harcourt Refinery is now working at 70 to 90 percent. The Old refinery is back on stream. The new refinery will join shortly and Warri refinery too. We should be joyous.The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has been put to shame. And it is a bigger shame that they have not deemed it necessary to congratulate President Tinubu and NNPC Limited who have both fulfilled an important pledge.”
“The Labour Congress is not a chorus group. Not an alleluia group like the National Assembly. They are a pressure group, an advocacy movement. You are asking for too much”
“When government does something that is good, we should be able to say so. It is not every time that we condemn and dismiss. We should be fair.”
“There is nothing to be fair about. There are questions that have not been answered. What exactly have they completed? The old refinery or the new. A refinery or a blending plant, relying on Crack 5 from Eleme Petrochemicals now known as Indorama? Who has lifted what? I hear marketers are not yet loading trucks”
“I hear trucks are being loaded”
“Has anybody talked to the elders and youths for whom petrol production is the mainstay of their community?”
“Which community? This is not about community youths and elders looking for hand-outs or royalties or whatever they call it. Oil refining is a sophisticated business. It has no room for street urchins, claiming Nigeria’s oil belongs to their forefathers. This is technical business, not a project for village thugs”
“Be careful. In everything you must carry the people along.”
“Look. Look, the people are oftentimes the problem. Everything that government tries to do for the common good, some people just think it is their lifetime ambition to sabotage everything.”
“More like some people in government suffering from executive arrogance, and we see it all the time. If the people ask questions, you explain to them. Is the refinery already loading products or not? Simple answer.”
“We live in a country where some people don’t want to see anything good in government. Negative people. I listened to one Mr. Tony Ogbuigwe on Arise News discussing this same subject. He is President, Society of Chemical Engineers. He explained everything. He was formerly in charge of the Port Harcourt Refinery. He spoke like an expert, but Nigerians refused to listen. Some people still came on the same TV station the following day to just talk.”
“Mr. Engr. Ogbuigwe spoke for himself. I am not duty-bound to accept his thoughts.”
“You are an Obidient, what else do I expect from you? Is that not the same attitude you people have brought to the issue of tax reform? Four brilliant bills sent to the National Assembly by the Federal Government to reform the tax regime in the country, look at all the confusion you naysayers have generated. Senators from the North are kicking. Northern Governors Forum and the National Governors Forum think the bills are against them. Even Northern Youths are fighting any Northern Leader like the Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin who asks for tax reform.”
“Are the Northern youths also Obidients?”
“They are behaving like that. People are all speaking out of mischief and ignorance. I suspect foul play over a subject that should not generate any problem. Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chair of the Presidential Committee on Tax and Fiscal Policy and FIRS Chairman, Dr. Zacch Adedeji and others went to the National Assembly to make a presentation on the four bills, Senator Ali Ndume, Senator Abdul Ningi and others staged a walk-out claiming that the presentation was not on the Order Paper for the day.”
“Yes. They were right. Government must learn to do things the proper way.”
“So why did they come back?”
“Because they are more interested in the common good.”
“Leave that matter. Ningi and Ndume have an axe to grind. Ningi was suspended from the Senate for a while. Ndume was removed as Chief Whip. You think they will be happy? The one that surprised me is Professor Baba Gana Zulum going on television to protest. A Professor. Somebody that we all like.”
“Because you all like him, he should not have an opinion?”
“I expected that someone like him would have read the Bills. How would he say openly that if the bills are passed, there would be consequences for the people? Oyedele and Adedeji in their presentations have made it clear that the four tax bills will promote inclusion, equity, fairness and justice. It will defend the interest of the poor. It will task the rich to pay more. It will promote Small and Medium Scale Enterprises. It will change the formula for tax administration. Every state will get 50%, the Federal Government 10%, local councils 35%. Distribution to the states and local governments will be on the basis of derivation. And every state will collect what its people consume through sales tax. No state will collect taxes on imports and exports and international services. Fair enough. I believe the tax reform will encourage competition. Why should Sokoto state or Zamfara collect VAT on beer that is consumed in Lagos, when people in Sokoto and Zamfara are not allowed to drink beer?”
“Very good. Executive arrogance minus political intelligence. This is what we are dealing with here. Not so?”
“There will be public hearings. The Bills have not been passed into law yet. Did you see Oyedele on TV yesterday? He gave brilliant explanations.”
“We have seen kangaroo public hearings in this country. The Federal Government should have carried stakeholders along. Organize a robust debate. The Oyedele committee should also have spoken to the public.”
“It did”
“To APC members?”
“There was consultation with Governors”
“We know about such consultations. But the Governors are saying not all of them were consulted and they needed more time to understand the bills. Professor Zulum asked the right question: why the rush? Let nobody give the impression that once Tinubu decides, then it is done. This is a democracy. We, the people, have the right to ask questions. Nobody should blackmail us into anything.”
“Nobody is blackmailing anybody. Lazy Nigerian Governors must learn to be productive. President Tinubu wants to teach them to compete and be productive in their states.”
“Okay. The headmaster knows it all. He should just be careful, especially now that members of his own party are beginning to criticize him openly. He has not spent two years in office, his party members are questioning his judgement.”
“Who are those ones?”
“Jesutega Onokpasa for example”
“Who is he to criticize Tinubu?”
“He is Chairman of the Tinubu Media Support Group”
“Who knows him? Let him go and sit down”
“This is the arrogance that I am talking about. By the way, is the President back from France? They told us he would be away for three days on a state visit. I hope he has not gone missing again for a few more days after a fashion?”
“Are you alright? Show some respect please.”
“I asked a simple question. If he is back, yes. If he is not back, No.”
“Google it”
“You are an APC man. you should be able to tell me. We have the right to know. Two days. One. Two. Friday. Saturday. We have the right to know where our President goes. He is Chief Foreign Policy Officer. But he cannot travel every market day looking for investors. He must stay at the market and man the stall too. Over 30 trips in less than two years. Haba.”
“Investments and diplomacy are critical parts of his assignment.”
“Accountability is also part of his responsibility. And how would the four tax bills help to attract foreign investments too?”
“Stop beating yourself over nothing. Presidential powers can make anything happen. Look at President Joe Biden of the United States. He has just pardoned his son, Hunter Biden and he hopes all Americans will understand where he is coming from. The fellow was convicted in two cases of federal felony: a gun charge in Delaware and tax convictions in California. His sentencing was scheduled for December 12 and 16. Ahead of that, his father has granted him full and unconditional pardon, not just for the two criminal offences, but also for any offence that he may have committed, or may be suspected to have committed between January 1, 2014 through December 1, 2024.”
“The man simply transferred his immunity to his own son, and saved him from going to jail. This is the same man who in June categorically ruled out a pardon or a commutation for his son. He said he would abide by the jury’s decision”
“That is what it means to be a President. And Biden is not the first American President to use presidential powers to protect a relative. In 2001, President Bill Clinton pardoned his half-brother, Roger Clinton who was in jail for a cocaine-related offence.”
“I stand with Donald Trump in this matter. It is an abuse of Presidential powers. It is a miscarriage of justice.”
“Which Donald Trump? Kettle calling pot black. In 2020, Trump as President pardoned Charles Kushner, the father-in-law of his daughter Ivanka. He has just named the same Charles Kushner as his Ambassador-designate to France. If you were President Joe Biden, you will open your eyes and allow a judge to send your son to jail because you want to be seen to be upright? If you were in his shoes, you will leave office and allow your son to be in jail under a President Trump? He was very clear. He said his son was singled out and that there had been a miscarriage of justice”
“Pardoning his son casts a pall over his legacy.”
“So be it. When you become President, don’t use the powers God has given you. Allow your opponents to ride roughshod over you. The problem with governance is actually the people, particularly journalists who will not mind their business.”
“Journalists are not supposed to mind their business. Any journalist that minds his or her business is not a journalist.”
“And that is why journalists get knocked on the head. I am a journalist. I am a journalist. That was how Fisayo Soyombo found himself in army detention in Port Harcourt. He was lucky the social media cried out. He could have disappeared for a whole year before anybody will trace his whereabouts.”
“Soyombo, founder of the Foundation for Investigative Journalism (FIJ) is not just a journalist. He is one of the finest in the trade. He is a courageous investigative journalist who exposes the underbelly of corruption in our society. A man of courage who has exposed the criminal practices in prisons, the mistreatment of soldiers at the warfront, vehicle smuggling across the border and the inefficiency of the police. He was on duty in Port Harcourt to investigate the menace of illegal oil bunkering and crude oil theft. Rather than arrest the oil bunkerers, Nigerian soldiers arrested him and allowed the oil thieves to go scot-free. Is that what you recommend?”
“If you make yourself a suspect, you can be arrested and interrogated. What is wrong in that?”
“What is wrong is that in this country the good guys get punished, the bad guys get a pat on the back. The army interrogated Soyombo and before they released him, they had reported everything he said to the oil thieves, thus placing him in harm’s way.”
“You have no proof. There is always another side to any story.”
“He was very specific. He mentioned names.”
“Who?”
“You should know. I think you always hear and see things.”
“I hear President Biden is visiting Angola, keeping his promise to visit sub-Saharan Africa before he leaves office. I am surprised he is not visiting Nigeria on his first visit to Africa.”
“What does it matter? He is leaving anyway. He has less than two months in office before he leaves the White House. And you can be sure when that visit is over, he will go straight back home… Maybe Trump will visit Nigeria.”
“He will come and visit you at home”
“Yes. Why not? He is after all, our in-law”
“I also hear the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has directed the money deposit banks and the Fintech firms to start charging Electronic Money Transfer Levy of N50 on any electronic inflow of N10, 000 and above.”
“For what? Why?”
“To generate revenue for government distribution”
“No. To further tax the people and punish them and to create another avenue for corruption. Distribute our money to which government? What do they ever do with all the taxes? I am willing to pay tax but I want to be sure that what is taken from me is used to build roads, fund education and healthcare and promote the common good, not the greed of government officials.”
“Nobody has ever liked the tax man. This is the real issue.”
“The real issue is President Tinubu saying Nigerians lived a fake life before he became President. He has forgotten he was part of that fake world too.”
![[OPINION] More Loans, More Pains and The Season of Discontent - Reuben Abati](/media/k2/items/cache/03767c9896b3eda8fb97d0541fceeeb1_XS.jpg?t=20241126_072644)
“I hear that the National Assembly has approved the external borrowing of a $2.2 billion for the Tinubu administration to address the fiscal deficit in the 2024 Budget”
“Bros, I tire. I just tire. What on earth do they do with all these borrowings?”
“There is actually a deficit of $9.17 billion deficit in the 2024 budget, when you add Eurobonds, interest on Ways and Means, foreign debt and domestic debt, and I hear that Nigeria can borrow more in line with Section 21(1) and Section 27(1) of the Debt Management Office (DMO) Establishment Act of 2003.”
“The DMO will quote anything to please any government in power. Is that woman still there? My concern is what they do with all the money”
“They want to service debts and finance capital projects”
“In November? I would have thought that by now, we should have been talking about Budget 2025. This is November. We are rushing to borrow more money as the year ends. Don’t they want to maintain the budget cycle again? I am confused. And which capital projects is anyone talking about? SUVs, for the lawmakers? Presidential jets? Foreign trips? I am sorry I can’t see any capital projects. They just want to borrow more money for consumption, not productivity. The roads are bad. Nobody talks about the railway system in the country anymore. Air travel is a nightmare. The refineries are still not working. The cost of living is high. The average man cannot breathe, cannot eat, cannot live. Yet, the Federal Executive Council approved more external borrowing and it took the National Assembly 48 hours to rubber-stamp the loan.”
“Did you expect anything different? The National Assembly is an extension of the Executive arm of government. It will rubber stamp anything that comes from the Executive and that is the case with the VAT Bill too.”
“But if it is a bill on things that would pave the way for good governance, the same National Assembly could spend years huffing and puffing, but anything that would benefit the elite and make it easier to have access to more of the state’s resources, the APC-dominated National Assembly would act quickly. The real wonderful in wonderland.”.
“Have you heard?”
“You and your rumours.”
“This one is hot oh”
“The problem with you people in this country is rumour-mongering. Una too dey carry gist. Una carry gist so tey, you even carry phone spread rumour that Otunba Mike Adenuga had died. This is a man who gave many of you the opportunity to use mobile phones in your life. The Spirit of Africa. A Patriot. I am sure it must have been one yeye man, using a useless, miserable phone. Nigerians are something else.”
“In Yoruba culture, when your death is prematurely and wrongly announced, it means the person will live long. We pray for long life for Otunba Mike Adenuga, in very good health, upstairs and downstairs and in all ways, with more grace and prosperity. Do you remember the story of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, nationalist, founding father of the nation, pan-Africanist. On November 8, 1989, his death was announced meanwhile the man was hale and hearty and working on a book in his library when he read his own obituary? NTA had rushed to do a documentary on the life and times of the inimitable Zik. Newspapers showed up the following morning with editorials. Columnists wanted to be the first to announce Zik’s death. Such was the force of his impact in politics, business and newspapering. Except that Zik was alive and he lived for another seven years. A burial committee was even announced. Bros, some of the members of that burial committee died before Zik. In Yoruba culture, when people wish you dead, they are actually praying inadvertently for your longevity. May Otunba Mike Adenuga live longer than those who want him buried before his time. So shall it be. Amen.”
“Is it not journalists? When journalists are not killing people, they are sending them to jail, without conviction. Who is a journalist these days?”
“I don’t know. I guess things are so bad now that anybody with access to the internet can put any information out there on social media. It is the price that the world is paying for the democratization of the information process, the Indomie-nisation of news, the collapse of traditional media systems and the emergence of charlatans in what was once a sacred profession. But let me give you my gist now?”
“Okay. Fire! Just make sure it is not a fabrication by some ignoramus”.
“Hen. Hen. I hear that”
“You heard. Hen Hen.”
“I heard that principal officers of the National Assembly, in fact two of them from the South, locked horns, with one holding the other’s agbada around the neck, both trying to suffocate each other. A blow. A jab. I don’t want to mention names. One Northern Senator had to wade in to prevent bloodshed.”
“The story sounds fabulous. Mention names”
“I hear they are trying very hard to cover it up and to prevent pictures of the ugly tiff getting to the media. My source is impeccable.”
“Oh. Oh. Oh. Story. Story. But what has this got to do with the external borrowing approval. What we hear is that the lawmakers all agreed on that. So, what could be the problem after they passed one of the fastest pieces of legislation in Nigeria. No public hearing. Nothing.”
“It was a fight over who could show that he was more loyal to the Presidential Villa.”
“Must be a fight over who gets what for his own stomach or for his own people. Afterall, you said a Northern Senator waded in. He shouldn’t have, if that is true. What is wrong with that Senator? Who asked him to stop whatever could have been like a Jake Paul/Mike Tyson fight or a Joshua/Dubois fight, He should have allowed the two gladiators to beat each other up, and by now, we would have known more. I like it when politicians fight. We get to know more, because it is we, the people who suffer in the long run.”
“Just as the people of Rivers state are the ones going to suffer if the Court of Appeal declares when it delivers its reserved judgement in the FAAC Allocation matter, that the Rivers State Government led by Governor Sim Fubara cannot receive any further Federal Allocations if it does not have a properly presented, passed and legally valid Budget. Who suffers?”
“The people suffer, and that is because we are running a bowl-in-hand Federation. The states are so dependent on the Federal Government for manna. But nobody should blame the judiciary. The source of the problem is the political gladiators of Rivers State and the elders in that state who talk from both sides of the mouth and serve both Wike and Fubara. One state. Two masters. They have all managed to turn Rivers State into an atomistic society perpetually at war against itself.”
“I know that phrase. It sounds familiar. That must be Professor Emmanuel Ayandele, former Vice Chancellor of the University of Calabar describing the old Cross Rivers state of the 80s, in the days of late Professor Okon Edet Uya who used to talk about Oron-phobia But those ones were even intellectualizing the politics of Cross Rivers State. What you have in Rivers State is sheer elite thuggery, politics without conscience, agbero politics and the dictatorship of one man who thinks he is the lord and master of Rivers politics.”
“So, I insist that whatever the judiciary decides is not the problem. The problem in Rivers state will not go away whatever the Court of Appeal decides except President Tinubu intervenes and cuts off the oxygen that is fuelling the chaos in that state.”
“No. President Tinubu is not the headmaster of any state of Nigeria. It is the people of Rivers State that should resolve their own problems. Let the critical actors solve their own problems. For all I care at this stage, they should lock themselves up in a room and have a slugfest. Whoever comes out alive is the winner.”
“What kind of talk is that? You are recommending jungle justice. Do you want to kill someone? Just look at it. If you lock up Sim Fubara and Nyesom Wike, who says nobody can take Rivers away from him in a room, what will be the likely outcome?”
“I don’t know. This is no longer a matter for the courts. Let them fight, and let us know who is the man”
“This is a democracy. Only Barbarians resort to fist-fight.”
“Then let President Tinubu wade into the matter. This is the point I am making. Wike is his Minister. He is so powerful in Rivers State because he is a big chief in the Federal Capital Territory. The President should remove the rug from his feet. Take the oxygen that makes it possible for him to Buga oh, from him and you will see there will be peace in Rivers State.”
“Now, I am convinced that you do not understand politics. That is not how politics works. President Tinubu needs Wike as much as Wike needs him. It is not about Tinubu sacking Wike. Who told you that will guarantee peace in Rivers? Why should Rivers be important to Tinubu? Is it possible that a strong, properly empowered Wike is politically more relevant to Tinubu than the whole of Rivers state put together?”
“How can one man be so important?”
“In politics, what you don’t know, you don’t know. Politics is the ultimate magic, the topmost art of illusion, known to man. Why do you think President Donald Trump is on his way back as the President of the largest economy in the world, despite his many shortcomings including being a convicted felon?”
“Politics does not always throw up the best people in the society. I know. I guess we must know that. And the people who vote have their own ideas. We just need to let the people know that whatever you decide, you must be ready to live with it. In four years, you can change your mind.”
“Yeah. Yeah. I hope the people of Rivers State are learning and learning good. And we will see how the Americans would learn their own lessons under Trump 2.0 too.”
“Trump has just named his full complement of Ministerial nominees, 15 in total.”
“I saw that, but I won’t say I am impressed with the list. Just a collection of MAGA loyalists, yes men and women and a few old rivals, completely eclectic. What is Robert Kennedy Jr. doing as nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services for example? Another nominee is a wrestling CEO, named as Linda McMahon to take charge of the Education Department, a more or less inexperienced choice. Pete Hegseth has sexual abuse issues, like Matt Gaetz, hanging around his neck. At least Gaetz stepped down before he could be openly disgraced by the Ethics Committee of the House of Representatives. And then this Scott Bessent – an openly gay man appointed by Trump who touts Christian evangelism and far-right ideology even when he may not be able to quote the Bible. Politicians are the same everywhere. They just look out for themselves first. America first in my view means Donald Trump first. But let the Americans live with it. They have made their choice.”
“All said and done, America has nominated just 15 people, not a nominee per state or per ethnicity. I have not seen anybody saying their own ethnic group has not been represented. No Black. No Latino. No Arab-American and yet no issue.”
“It is their Constitution, and their culture. We are talking about America not your “whatever” countries in the Third World, please. This is the richest country. The budget that Brooke Rollins as Agriculture Secretary will control is more than the annual budget of some three African countries! In any case, what matters is what a Trump Presidency means for the world, climate change, global peace, the competition with China. But I don’t even want to beat myself over other people’s problems. In two days, America will celebrate Thanksgiving. I have been seeing some pictures of very regal, fleshy Turkeys. Chop time! Fun time.”
“You like food too much. You are reading about American Thanksgiving and you are already doing long throat. I don’t have Thanksgiving on my mind. I am thinking of Christmas. Will there be money for Christmas? School fees? Money for gifts. I hope you know that today, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria is going to announce their usual benchmark rate, CRR, MPR, asymmetric corridor which will tell us how hard life is, how harder it may become and whether or not we can breathe a little. With inflation rate close to 40%, may the Lord help us.”
“You may be surprised. Benchmark rate may actually come down”
“I want to be surprised. But I actually also know this country so well that when things go up, they don’t come down.”
“Not quite my friend. The ex-depot price of fuel has just come down from N990 per litre to N970 per litre. And that is a fact. Christmas gift from Dangote Refinery through the now peaceful oil marketers to us”
“What a wonderful fact!”
“Our God has answered our prayers, He has sent to us, early ahead of Christmas, a Father who cares.”
“You are right. You are absolutely right.”
“Hear! Hear!”