Hello Mr Eno

With only a few weeks to May 29, and barring any unforeseen circumstances, your inauguration as the next governor of Akwa Ibom state is certain. I am therefore pleased to send you this note to guide you as you prepare to take office. For me, setting an agenda for a new administration has become a tradition. In 2000, I wrote a letter to Obong Attah, urging him to remodel Uyo into a modern capital city. I followed it up with an interview with him in his office. I was then a journalist with The Guardian newspaper.

It was at the interview that Attah explained to me the benefits of planting trees in the middle of a town, which is what he did to the area of Uyo we now refer to as the plaza. In 2008, I wrote an article in The Guardian, urging Governor Godswill Akpabio to continue with the airport project which Obong Attah had started. There were rumours that Akpabio was going to truncate the development of the airport based on some advice that ‘’the airport is Attah’s project’’. Thank God, Akpabio knew better and we now have an airport. Given the circumstance of his emergence, I was too sad to send Udom Emmanuel a letter. He emerged through the most violent and bloodiest election in the history of our state.

For you, instead of recommending specific projects to pursue, I will rather give you a set of dos and don’ts that should guide your steps. First, it is advisable that you choose your own style and avoid the temptation to mimic your predecessor. Stay humble, dress modestly and do away with billboards showing your face everywhere in Uyo. Akpabio introduced the practice of self-advertisements on billboards and Udom Emmanuel copied him and took it to a ridiculous level. I hope you’ll end it because it is indecent, self-serving and smacks of arrogance.

Your achievements will speak for you. You don’t need to erect billboards to announce the roads you have constructed. We shall see and use them. Eschew lies, boastfulness and embellishment of your claims. Strike out in your own unique ways and build your brand, but make honesty, humility and prudence your best policy.

Second, and this is very important, you must cancel all the deals and illegal understandings, considerations or agreements you might have entered into with the people who put you in office. I do not know why the governor chose you as his preferred candidate, but I’m old enough to know that such supports and preferences come with political and financial IOUs that you must pay.

Since the governor worked hard to put you in office, he must have some expectations from you; and perhaps, you had made some pledges to him. But make no mistake, Mr Eno, if you facilitate any fraudulent, illegal or immoral deals to anybody in return for the favours you received, you will come to your comeuppance at the right time. As a pastor, I am sure that you must be familiar with the law of nature which states that whatsoever a man sows, he shall reap. Your loyalty is now to Akwa Ibom people; not to your godfathers or fathers of faith or any individual or group.

Three, focus on the core problems afflicting our people and leave vanities out of governance. Akwa Ibom people are desperately poor and most of our young people are jobless. Public schools are in very bad shape and health facilities are inadequate. Do away with fancy and white elephant projects that have no relevance to the lives of our people. Uyo, brimming with over three million people, deserves two well-equipped general hospitals. The University of Uyo Teaching Hospital (UUTH) is the only affordable medical centre for the people. But it is always overcrowded, overworked and congested.

In an interview with Channels TV, you said something about building new hotels to promote tourism. You had also talked about declaring ‘’Happy Hour’’ to promote drinking. You must stop thinking and talking like a hotelier, which you have been all of your adult life. You will soon be the governor and chief executive of the state, and your focus should be solving the problems of the majority of the people, which are poverty; unemployment; out-of-school children, etc. There are more tricycles (keke) on Uyo roads than private cars. I don’t see this in any of the state capitals in the other Niger Delta states. Does that tell you something?

Four, be frugal with the people’s resources. Remember that the treasury is not an extension of your personal bank account. Stop impulsive donations and do not act to impress anybody. Remember our poor widows, orphans and the millions of unemployed youths who go to bed hungry. Do away with sycophancy, bogus titles and appurtenances that set you aside as a man of vainglory. Do not carry any cane or walking stick, and as I said earlier, dress decently, but moderately. Avoid those prophets that would ‘’bless’’ and hand over a walking stick to you. They will lead you astray. It is okay for your wife to pursue an agenda that promotes a social cause. But be advised that the wife of the governor is not an official of the government. I have already written on your use of the state-owned private jet. I hope the message got to you.

Finally, beware of some persons that will visit you and claim to be investors, foreign or domestic. Some may claim to have Akwa Ibom persons as partners. More often than not, they are fraudsters. They duped the Attah administration of millions in a bogus hospital investment and duped the incumbent administration of millions in toothpick factory and Mexican cow investments.

I wish you well, Mr Eno, but it is now up to you to write your name in gold. As a citizen, I will be watching and commenting.

It’s clear that the 2023 general elections were conducted under the popularly accepted and new electoral framework, the Electoral Act 2022; a law that provides a more robust legal framework for the conduct of the polls. The law was expected to give legislative backing for more transparent voting, collation and announcement of results.

Prior to the elections, for the old voters, there were concerns for massive logistics and technical issues, and for the new voters, they were obviously excited with fresh optimism that the election would usher in hope for new democracy in Nigeria. Hence, the anticipated elections happened and the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission, “refused” to provide the enabling environment, essential infrastructure and logistical support, adequate technology among others to enable a free and fair poll.

These situations have called into question INEC’s impartiality, credibility and raised concerns over the commitment of the electoral body to credible and transparent elections in Nigeria.

Now, looking into some of the major issues that marred the 2023 elections, the first on the list will be the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System. The electronic device is designed to read Permanent Voter Cards and authenticate voters, using their fingerprints to prove that they are eligible to vote at a particular polling unit. Recall that when it was first deployed in Delta State around September 2021, some presiding officers fussed about how the machine had difficulties capturing the thumbs and faces of some of the voters, especially old people. Same incidents also occurred during the Osun State governorship elections as there were some technical issues raised.

Recall also that INEC dismissed their fears, saying the machine had been test-run and proved by its IT experts to have the capacity to perform optimally during the governorship polls. Despite the assurance, it was a repetition of past stories as there were cases of BVAS failure to accredit voters due mainly to technical issues relating to login details, configuration or internet connectivity.

This was not the case during the just-concluded presidential and National Assembly elections, where many INEC officials failed to upload results at polling units. In many instances, voters waited for hours, in futility, for officials to upload the results of their polling units.

Now, Nigerians want to know how INEC spent the N305bn it got from the Federal Government and how the budgeted N114.26bn for ICT-related expenses was spent. They want to know why BVAS failed and if the number of polling units doesn’t indicate the number of BVAS. There is no way they shouldn’t have budgeted for at least one-tenth of those BVAS connecting to the server at the same time. INEC knows how much can be captured; they should have known the bandwidth needed. Isn’t it that the INEC system was not primed for the kind of data coming through it?

Time and logistics challenges? We saw cases of postponements of elections in some polling units in Lagos, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers and Edo states. True, most of the reasons were due to logistics challenges, the unavailability of sufficient electoral materials in many polling stations across the country. INEC itself admitted that some of the reasons why it could not open some of the polling units on time were due to problems of logistics in spite of its “best efforts.’’

We saw different cases of the late start of voting beyond the 08:30am opening time due to the late arrival of polling officials and voting materials and, in some cases, the delivery of wrong materials, at polling stations across the country. According to Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development-post election incident report on March 2023, a little above 18 per cent of the polling units observed, started election process before 8:30 while about 45 per cent of the polling units commenced the exercise between 8:30 and 9:59am and about 36 per cent of the polling units started around 10am. Fair enough, INEC did better in terms of logistics compared to past elections, but the question remains if INEC can fix time and logistics issues.

It is equally provoking to watch how thugs were observed interrupting polls and intimidating voters in different parts of the country. Many local and international observers equally condemned the violence that accompanied the February 25 and the March 18 governorship elections. In fact, some described it as the worst in the history of the electoral process in Nigeria.

Media reports state that in Cross River State, an Adhoc INEC worker was hit by a stray bullet after some gunmen opened fire while she was in a boat heading to Bakassi for election duty. Still in the same state, more than 50 political thugs at about 2.15 am on Sunday March 19 invaded INEC collation centre at the Ogoja State constituency disrupting collation of results, vandalised the place, carted away election materials, phones and inflicted injuries on many ward collation officers. Similar incidents were also recorded in Adamawa, Lagos and other states across the federation. According to CJID, polling unit disruptions and harassment during voting combined made up 19.6 of incidents recorded by observers.

Now, Nigerians are worried if the country can get violence out of her elections or maybe it does not have enough security apparatus to curb the consistent crises in our elections?

Again, we have always fussed about vote buying, as this system of inducement refuses to divorce from the country’s democracy. According to Civil Society Organisations Connected Development, it recorded 50 cases of vote buying during the elections, which also shows an increase across different polling units in the country. Yiaga Africa, a pro-democracy and development organisation, also stated that it recorded and confirmed 15 cases of vote buying and bribery across eight states during the governorship elections. It added that political party agents were observed sharing food, cash and alcoholic drinks to some voters in different states.

Let’s examine the issue of voter apathy.  According to Datapyte, out of the total 93.47 million registered voters, only 24.9 million persons voted during the presidential and National Assembly elections. This represents a meagre 26.72 per cent voter turnout, the lowest since the return to democracy in 1999. Compared to the voter turnout of 34.74 per cent in the 2019 general elections, the turnout in the just concluded election declined by 8.03 per cent. Also, low voter turnout was witnessed across Nigeria when 28 states conducted their 2023 governorship and state house of assembly elections.

Following the postponement of the state level elections from March 11 to 18 by INEC, the numbers of voters were not as high as that of February 25, according to reports from Dataphyte observers across the country. Meanwhile, several reasons have been cited for the poor voter turnout being experienced. A policy analyst, Ayantola Alayande, highlighted a number of reasons for the low voter turnout in the election. He pointed out that the postponement of the election by a week dampened the spirits of the electorate. Cases of violence, ballot snatching and other issues might have also been a factor to be considered for the low turnout.

In conclusion, it is underwhelming to accept that this is what we can get out of INEC’s four-year Strategic Plan and Strategic Programme of Action. The agency still struggles with logistics and technical issues, insecurity, vote buying and other issues that can bring the best out of the body.  Can Nigerians ever trust INEC? Can INEC ever produce what will be free and fair for Nigerians? Time will tell?

• Ogungbile sent this piece via: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

“My man, are you sure we are in the Holy Month, because I am not understanding anymore? There is so much tension in the country on all fronts.”

“Of course, it is the Holy Month. Two days ago, it was Palm Sunday, a significant moment in the Christian community’s observance of Lent, when Christians fast for 40 days and 40 nights, and take on Christ-like conduct and virtues and seek the eye of God. Muslims are also in the Ramadan season, the Holy Month. Both religions preach friendship, understanding, kindness towards the poor, sacrifice and the spirit of sharing and giving. A few days earlier, there was so much talk about traditional worshippers, especially in Lagos state, talking about rituals, placement of sacrificial offerings at crossroads, and yet you say there is so much tension in the country.”

“You have not answered my question. What I know is that every day, Nigerians mouth the mantra that we all worship the same God and that we are all children of God, whoever and whatever we worship. But what I see is a country that has no fear of God. What people do is different from what they say! Religion has failed in this country. We should ban religion.”

“Hey Hey, calm down. Nobody has banned religion in Russia, China, United States or Cuba. Na here you want to ban religion?Human beings are by nature superstitious, but the problem we have in this country is that there is a gap between public morality and private morality. People go to church or the mosque but don’t be deceived, they don’t care about values, they don’t give a damn about virtues, they go to church, the mosques and shrines, they claim we are all serving one God, but you can’t see a trace of it in their relationship with other human beings.”

“Free me. Tell me as you see it.”

“There is too much wawulence in the land.”

“Speak English. What is wawulence?”

“The language of persons with street credibility. Too much violence, verbal, physical and spiritual in the country of our birth, right now, today, everywhere. Too much ethnic and religious hate and bigotry. I think people are losing their minds because of the elections. And I think we need to remind ourselves that there is a country, and that the country is more important than individual ambitions and preferences.”

“Point of correction. There was a country.”

“There is a country. And there will still be a country. Can we all step out of the mass psychosis that we are dealing with?”

“The psychotics know themselves. The people who have turned election into a source of craze know themselves.”

“Yes. Like your friends in the All Progressives Congress (APC) who are now leaking Peter Obi’s telephone conversations, and who claim that he is trying to start a religious war by campaigning on the basis of ethnicity and religion, and they and their allies have put into circulation a doctored version of a telephone conversation between him and Bishop David Oyedepo. Their intent is to ridicule him and lower him in the estimation of serious-minded and reasonable people of society”.

“I don’t know who put out any audio conversation, doctored, not doctored. What I know is that there is so much hostility out there because of an election. In the first place, don’t believe everything that you see on social media. We are in the age of Artificial Intelligence, ChatGPT and all kinds of manipulations. You must always fact-check.”

“The Labour Party and the Obidients have confirmed that their candidate actually spoke with Bishop David Oyedepo except that the leaked audio is manipulated, fake, doctored. They say there is a plan to arrest Peter Obi for treasonable felony”

“Nobody is above the law. But is that how people are arrested? The people that should be arrested are the people who leaked the phone call between two persons. It is a violation of Section 37 of the 1999 Constitution and all other relevant laws on data protection, consumer protection and freedom of information. People have the right to privacy. That is why there is something called lawyer-client, doctor-patient privilege and confidentiality. If people are allowed to go about leaking other people’s private conversations, society will be ruined. Imagine someone for example, hacking into your conversation with your female friends, and sending same to your wife and other girlfriends, you would have instant chaos in your life. Your life expectancy will reduce.”

“That is a wrong analogy. I am a straight and decent man. I am not even a card-carrying politician. But someone told me that we have the right to know everything about people in the public domain, and that it is a good thing to leak everything about politicians.”

“I know what you are saying. Volenti non fit inuria. That is the principle. It does not apply here though. Even politicians have rights. In any case, in the so-called released audio conversation, I don’t see anything that is wrong. People are just making a mountain out of a mole-hill. Politicians all over the world play to their base, they mobilise their base, they reach out to persons of influence. Peter Obi calling Bishop Oyedepo, a man of great influence and asking him for support for whatever reason is not an issue. It does not amount to calling for a religious war. It is perfectly within his right to seek celebrity endorsement. In any case, Bishop Oyedepo has shaken it all off. Did you listen to his riposte? He is a man of God. He advises everyone that seeks his counsel, whether they take it or not. Has anybody queried why in the last elections, Muslim clerics supported the Muslim-Muslim ticket? Have they looked for conversations between Muslim candidates and Muslim leaders? Look, the election is over, people who are aggrieved should go to court. The various spokespersons who have been exchanging vitriol over nothing should go and look for work. You can’t be a spokesperson for another man permanently. Get busy. Election don finish oh! Boys! Move on!”

“I hear people are looking for appointments, especially within the APC, and that the President-elect is already putting together a team. He is building a team.”

“You mean team-ship?”

“Yes, team-ship. Serious lobbying going on. The other day, it was Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi lobbying openly that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers must be given a core role in the Tinubu government. I hear some people are also already organizing civil society groups to say that they must be in the government. In fact, some men have since abandoned their wives and children and turned themselves into Tinubu’s handbags, struggling to make themselves useful. They are with him in France as we speak.”

“The things that hunger, greed and poverty will cause in this country will be serious. But truly, I don’t have a problem with the attempt to put a team together. Nigeria can no longer afford a ridiculous situation where a President would be sworn in and for six months, he would claim he is still looking for a team. No. There are urgent matters ahead. The President must hit the ground running. As long as he recruits the best and the brightest, not mediocres, not IOU-seekers, opportunists, habitual drunkards, and second-rate clowns in the corridors of power, I don’t have a problem with that.”

“Who is a second-rate clown? A clown is a clown”

“I know what I am saying. Some first-rate clowns in this country are educated billionaires. Don’t force me to mention names. If you must recruit a court jester, at least get the good ones. We have had too many jesters running the Nigerian government.”

“But people say Tinubu should wait till the dispute around the Presidential election is resolved.”

“There is nothing in our laws that says so. Section 285 of the 1999 Constitution provides very strict timelines for election petitions. Lawyers exploit this. They will stretch the matter with every possible trick. By May 29, Tinubu would be sworn in. The process has started. He will promptly announce a Cabinet and activate Section 5 of the 1999 Constitution which grants him extensive executive powers to appoint and disappoint. Within a week, a full government would be up and running. You can keep talking to the courts!”

“I don’t think that is right”

“It is not a matter of what you think. It is what the law makes possible.”

“We have to change the law. All election disputes must be finalized before inauguration. The Uwais Commission made such a recommendation. We must go back to it. That is what they do in Kenya and other places. Now I understand why some people are calling for an Interim National Government and why one man tried to stop a commercial plane from flying and threatened that there will be no Presidential inauguration on May 29.”

“I hope you also understand that the Department of State Services, and other security agencies have made it clear that anybody who tries to subvert the state, will be made to face the full wrath of the law. Nobody should test the patience of the state-qua-state. Be careful. I won’t make a case for you.”

“I don’t make trouble with anybody. I have enough issues of my own. I mind my business. I only discuss politics when we are together like this. I raise questions. I am not likely to go on television like Datti Baba-Ahmed to say any attempt to swear in Tinubu would signal the end of democracy, and then get a TV station fined. I will not board a plane like that Obiajulu man and say there will be no inauguration on May 29. I will not act like the Eze Ndigbo of Ajao estate and proclaim that Igbos in Lagos will invite IPOB to Lagos to defend Igbo properties and investments. But we have to understand the context and understand that people are angry.”

“You know I know what you mean by context”

“Yes”

“Eluu Pee”

“Yes Daddy”

“Obi Nwannem”

“Yes Daddy”

“Obi Kererenke, Obi oh”

“Yes Daddy”

“Whoever is not happy, go to Court and fact-check”

“But you know why we are having these issues, because the people do not trust the courts. Not even that musician called Portable, Habeeb Okikiola. When the police went to arrest him, after several invitations and he had snubbed them, he told them that he is a government liability, a celebrity, a Baboon, who belongs to the zoo. Zazuh zeh! That is how many Nigerians behave. They don’t trust the system.”

“But I hope you know what has now happened to him?”

“What happened to the Omo Ijoba himself?”

“You don’t read the news.? On Friday, he was arrested by the police, and told in clear terms that being a celebrity does not confer any constitutional immunity on him, and that he is truly a government liability and not an asset. He spent the weekend in a police cell in Abeokuta. Yesterday, he was arraigned in a Magistrate Court in Ifo, Ogun State where he was slammed with a three-count charge, and remanded in Ilaro prison until he discharges his bail terms.”

“Nigeria is a wicked place to aspire to be anything.”

“No. Obey the law. The same Portable that was boasting that he is a Baboon. He has been told now that Baboons in the zoo are kept in cages, and he has been kept behind bars accordingly. I hope they lock him up with very gluttonous mosquitoes. In fact, I suspect they did. He was looking very contrite in court. A se ko ti e le. Him no get liver. Egungun better be careful! This is why everybody should be calm. After the elections, everyone should learn to be calm.”

“Make we calm, make we calm down. But there is a way this country also gets on your nerves. People are reacting in their own ways. Look at Rivers state, lawyers who went to Port Harcourt for election matters were arrested and detained, and the materials in their possession were seized. That is enough to make anybody angry.”

“They have been released.”

“So. But a point has been made. Whoever wants to challenge the election results in Rivers State is not welcome and you know what happened on February 25 and March 18 in that state and after the elections, parties across the country have been suspending key officials of their parties from the Peoples’ Democratic Party in Benue, the Labour Party in Edo State to the APC in Delta, Kwara, Bauchi and Zamfara States. Some people are just determined to heat up the polity.”

“I am sure if you check the stories from those states very well, you’d see that for the most part, it is mainly about disagreement over ego, stomach infrastructure, and nothing about Nigeria and its future.”

“Even when people try to fight for the future, they are not allowed. I am sure you know that is the way we are.”

“You tell me.”

“Take Kano State.”

“What about Kano State?”

“Earlier on, we discussed Tinubu getting ready for the future, you said that was right. In Kano, Governor-elect, Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has issued two advisories. On March 30, he issued an advisory on ongoing constructions in the state in public spaces and urged that they should be stopped until the incoming administration assumes office. On March 31, he issued another advisory to say that no financial institution should grant any loans to Kano State because the in-coming administration will not honour such loans. He has been told he is jumping the gun. Governor Ganduje has told him that he is still in charge until May 29. I don’t understand this country. We are a nation of hypocrites and double standards.”

“To be fair, the Governor-elect of Kano State does not yet have the imprimatur of the law. He is not yet a constituted authority”

“Is Tinubu a constituted authority?”

“It is not the same thing. The comparison is off-key.”

“This is the problem then. How can we have a proper country when Nigerians have over 200 million opinions on any subject under the sun and the country’s population itself is over 200 million!”

“I don’t have an answer to that.”

“I’d be surprised if anybody does.”

Religion governs the sacerdotal facet of human life. Religion does not only bring out the divine and the human in us; it also unsheathes the basest and vilest part of us, depending on where the lamp is rubbed. We are all religious beings, but with a divergent pool of beliefs.

Religion is an emotive subject; hence a dangerous and nonpartisan explosive when soused with politics. The flame from the wrong application or deployment of religion consumes all -- the genie, the lamp, and the wielder. It spares neither friend nor foe.

That which is temporal should not impugn that which is holy and spiritual. What is for the dogs should be for the dogs, and what is for God for God.

Religion has always been an undercurrent in Nigeria’s politics. It has always mattered in our elections. And it has always been of significance in our national life.

However, owing to Nigeria’s delicate religious complexion, political actors who are sensitive to the country’s unity, have always been cautionary about making religion the centrepiece of their politics. Understanding that the votes of Nigerians, whether Christian, Muslim or traditionalist, count in deciding the outcome of elections, these political actors walk the tightrope of not pitting one religion against another.

Even when religion is in the mix, it has always been subtle; whispered and operated behind shutters. Never has religion been so abused in our politics in recent history as in the 2023 elections. Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party, exercised religion in his campaigns with an open assault on national unity and cohesion. And he appeared blatant, defiant, and unperturbed about the concomitants and reverberations of his methods on national unity.

To Peter Obi, the election was a ‘’religious war’’ -- perhaps with casualties, victors, vanquished, missing limbs, and torsos. This jaundiced thought process obviously set the stage for the rampaging of his ‘’Obidients’’.

Peter Obi’s politics has scourged the land. It has scorched the umbilical cord holding us together – just as his ‘’Obidients’’ continue to poison our unity dutifully. A dangerous precedent has been set. When political campaigns are driven by prejudices and ethnic contaminants, the corollaries remain long after electioneering. The leadership may find itself on tenterhooks as regards establishing trust and building cohesion with some sections of the country over vicious ethnic and religious obloquy.

It is concerning that some respected Nigerians are endorsing this naked abuse of our electoral process as the Electoral Act 2022 prohibits campaigns with the underpinnings of religion. It is fair, according to them, because Peter Obi is the protagonist today, but what happens when the table turns?

This utter disregard for our laws, all sense of decency and patriotism is precarious for Nigeria as it sets one religion against another. With such a precedent, elections may no longer be about competence and governance, but about religion and about who has the largest following among the religions.

This is a path to doom. It does not bode well for our country. It is regressive, atavistic, and destructive. What Peter Obi has done with his politics should not be rationalised by anyone. In fact, it should be condemned by all well-meaning Nigerians.

We cannot speak of building a united country and endorse what Peter Obi has done with his unfettered struggle for power in any way. It is wrong, and a blight on the national conscience.

If the purpose of seeking power is truly for the good of Nigerians, then the highest level of patriotism is expected of political actors. But why is Peter Obi so desperate for power? Why is he so menacing about the outcome of the election? What is behind this rabid quest for power? Why is he seeking to plunge the nation into crisis over his ambition?

Politics reveals the concealed hue of a familiar face; it awakens forgotten prejudices. In politics, our weaknesses are emboldened, and native fissures foregrounded.

I believe our politics is religiously and ethnically charged because good governance is not at the core of the game. Some politicians and even some citizens see political power as conquest and as a diadem to assert sectional and doctrinaire relevance and pursuits – as Peter Obi’s bent shows. We must do away with this. If it is really about leadership, then religion and ethnicity must remain on the back burner.

To radical ‘’Obidients’’ who are still in campaign mode and slinging prejudices for nuisance advantage, the elections are over, and the rest of Nigeria are now focused on governance and on advancing with Nigeria. Not that patriotism matters to radical ‘’Obidients, as they have shown themselves incapable of logic and reason, Nigeria is still a country of laws for those who may want to manifest their delusions.

Nigerians must begin to wrest the narrative from this horde. We must speak peace and unity for the country.

May Nigeria find healing.

By Fredrick Nwabufo, Nwabufo aka Mr OneNigeria is a media executive.

The Department of State Services (DSS) is an interesting organisation. It is one place the citizens love to hate. The body thrives on reverse psychology and gaslighting, saying one thing and meaning the exact opposite and making the citizens doubt and blame themselves for the failures of their leaders. Inimitable also is their ambivalence and amorphous deception in the line of duty and secrecy. Their operatives do as they like, answerable to none but the president and to the president alone. Their allegiance is therefore not to the country or the constitution. Their patriotism means standing with the president, even when the president is standing against the country.

And the president in our clime is concerned only for his self-preservation. All the talk about the so-called national interest is about the self-preservation of the president and his interest and the interests of the few that hold the reins of power with him. These interests play up the most in elections. The interest of the president and the power donors he represents dominate the succession plan at all levels. Citizens be damned!

From the appointment of the head of the electoral commission and its entire management team, the president, the power holders, and power donors carefully select the most pliable hands who will deliver either as instructed or as they may read from the body language of their appointors.

From the foregoing, one can see that it was an aberration for a certain Dr Goodluck Jonathan to thump his chest and say, “I never knew Atahiru Jega before I appointed him”. Jonathan was simply being naive. Some persons usurped his powers and forced his hands to appoint Jega, who of course did the bidding of those unseen hands and priced power out of the erstwhile president’s hand.

Buhari did not make that mistake. He carefully chose Professor Mahmood Yakubu, a product of the establishment in his capacity as an executive secretary of TETFund. Something emblematic about establishment persons is that they are experts in reading the body language of their principals even when they do not want to speak directly to them.

The great preparations and build-up to the 2023 general election were such as to make the outcome the best election ever in the annals of the nation’s electoral history. To ensure this about N400 billion was committed to ensuring that all aspects and all stones were not left unturned. The enabling law (Electoral Act 2022) was also put in place by the national assembly and the president graciously signed it into law.

Yet, as early as October 2022, facts began to emerge that INEC had abandoned the elaborate plans to ensure the electronic transfer of results in real-time. Professor Yakubu addressed a press conference that November to reassure Nigerians that results would be transmitted in real-time in line with the extant Electoral Act 2022 Section 64(4) and Electoral Guidelines paragraph 38.

Loquacious Festus Okoye issued a press statement reiterating and reechoing Professor Yakubu’s press conference at the same time. Yet, both men led the commission to abandon everything and resorted to manual collation as obtained in the Electoral Act 2010 and shut down INEC’s IReV at the nick of time to cut off real-time monitoring of the results by the stakeholders and political parties. To complete the impunity and subterfuge, Yakubu refused to attend to official complaints and utilise the one-week window created for the commission in the electoral act for that purpose before declaring the winner.

“Go to court,” was all Yakubu and the president had to arrogantly offer to opposition parties and millions of Nigerians who felt deceived and betrayed by INEC. They say this as if the judiciary was not there before INEC was set up to organise and supervise elections in Nigeria. Maybe the next electoral reforms should simply hand over the task of organising elections to the Supreme Court of Nigeria since it’s the judiciary that has been determining outcomes or winners in our elections since 1999 when the country returned to the current democratic dispensation. INEC has since lost its essence and Nigerian democracy is now better off without it. This is no longer the Electoral Commission once led by men of impeccable character like Prof Eme Awa and Prof Humphrey Nwosu.

That is the background that has led to the present quagmire. This has led to unpreceded protests, which have seen some mothers go completely naked and half-naked to drive home their frustration and disgust.

More importantly, there is a rising strident call for an interim national government (ING) to hold fort till the tribunal and the supreme court determine the winner of the February 25th presidential election.

Unfortunately, ING is unknown to the Nigerian laws and the president lacks the power to impose an ING as Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida did as a military head of state in 1993. The 1999 constitution has a clear succession plan and tenure elongation of the incumbent government under extraneous circumstances. The senate president being suggested by some to take over in the interim can only come in if the president and vice resign together or die in office (God forbid) or are impeached. Even this will not produce an interim government because the senate president can only stay for the remainder of the tenure of the president and vice replaced.

In the case of a national emergency, NASS can however declare a state of emergency and elongate the tenure of the government (executive and legislature) for the initial six months. The Doctrine of Necessity invoked by NASS under David Mark as senate president in 2010 to cause the swearing in of Dr Goodluck Jonathan as president during the Yar’Adua health and death saga does also not mirror the dire situation confronting the nation at the moment.

The position of the law, therefore, is that the president-elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be sworn in as substantive president and will remain so unless otherwise declared by the supreme court. The fear that he would deploy instruments of the state to ensure that he retains power is germane but unfortunately, that is what is legally plausible left for Nigerians.

That is the scenario the DSS is reacting to and confirming the plot for an interim national government by those the Service has angrily described. The Service says the plot, which is being pursued by some entrenched interests, is not only an aberration but a mischievous way to set aside the constitution and undermine civil rule as well as plunge the country into an avoidable crisis.

The Service also claimed that planners have weighed various options, which included sponsoring endless violent mass protests in major cities to warrant a declaration of a state of emergency and obtaining frivolous court injunctions to forestall the inauguration of new executive administrations and legislative houses at the federal and state levels.

Assuming these allegations are true, are these options being pursued not legitimate in a democracy i.e. organising protests and going to court for redress?

Weighed from a reverse psychology perspective, what the DSS is doing is anti-democratic and tantamount to gagging the people and the judiciary. The DSS mandate does not include determining which court orders are frivolous. Any frivolous order will certainly be set aside by the two appellate courts of the land – the court of appeal and the supreme court. After all, both INEC and the president asked those not satisfied with the outcomes of the February 25th election to go to court, and to court, they have gone. So, why the hullabaloo?

More importantly, stopping the people from protesting within the laws of the land is also antithetical to the ethos and tenets of democracy. Or, are the DSS and its principals saying Nigerians must accept Bola Tinubu as their president whether they elected him or not?

Opposition political parties and indeed the Nigerian people need their political space and democratic rights to vent and test the validity of the election of Bola Tinubu. The DSS ought to know that the issue is not whether the election was peaceful in most parts of the country or that Tinubu is the beneficiary of the opaque process. They ought to worry that officially up to 27 fellow Nigerians died and that is hardly a good definition of a peaceful election and the seeming deliberate blindfolding of Nigerians ought to be peacefully challenged to avoid a repeat of such a heist in the future and possible truncation of democracy.

The Service is aware that till today, all the polling units’ results are yet to be uploaded by INEC to the IReV. Yet the uploaded results are a precedent to results’ collation and declaration. Despite this, a president-elect has been declared and is about to be sworn in. In civilised climes, Professor Mahmood and his management team ought to be in the DSS office answering pertinent questions. But unfortunately, it is the victims of their subversive activities that are being hounded by the DSS. This is what is regarded as a means-end inversion in psychology. It is gaslighting – brazenly lying to Nigerians to manipulate, and ultimately control and make them scapegoats using coercion.

The Service is therefore blaming and taking it out on the victims – Nigerians. It ought not to be for the sake of posterity!

Mefor is a senior fellow of The Abuja School of Social and Political Thought. He can be reached via +234- 9056424375 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. He tweets @DrLawMefor1

IN the rascally days of the military, when generals were wedded to coups, a military officer arose in their ranks called Oladipo Donaldson Oyeyinka Diya. He was unknown to the public until January 1984 when the coup plotters led by General Muhammadu Buhari, who had overthrown the Shagari administration, announced him as the Military Governor of Ogun State.

The populace had thought the military seized power to alleviate their suffering, but soon realised that their state had worsened. So in Ogun State, they started referring to Diya, which literally means ‘reduce our suffering’, as Kunya which means: ‘add to our suffering’.

An August 1985 palace coup sent Diya back to military duties while his colleagues continued to mismanage the country. The military shifted the handover to civilian rule thrice before aborting the June 12, 1993 presidential election won by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola just so they would not return to the barracks.

After the annulment of the election, the Generals put in place a contraption called the Interim National Government, ING, headed by one of their civilian ‘boys’, Chief Ernest Shonekan. But it was strange to the country in all ways and the Nigeria body rejected the foreign object. An upcoming Justice Dolapo Akinsanya declared the ING illegal, and that was when Diya became quite active amongst his fellow Generals.

Chief Gani Fawehinmi had some days after the verdict on the ING launched a book on the subject during which the legal icon and advocate of the masses called on the “revolutionaries” in the military to seize power. I got up at the public forum to oppose the call on the basis that we do not know revolutionaries in the highly compromised military which behaves like a lion that had tasted human blood. I insisted that civilians must take over; and on behalf of the Pro-Democracy Movement in Nigeria, declared that we would oppose and fight any new coup plotter on the streets as we had done with the Babangida dictatorship.

The newspapers next morning carried the open disagreement between Chief Fawehinmi and I.

Then, Dr Olu Onagoruwa, a noted lawyer, minority rights activist and pro-democracy leader, asked me for a meeting. He told me he had read the altercation between Chief Fawehnmi and I, but would suggest I make no further public comments against a coup as one was coming in a few weeks.

I told him I was aware that General Diya was coordinating one and had consulted a number of civil society groups, including those in the leading Campaign for Democracy, CD, but assured him that even if it will take hundreds of lives as it did under Babangida, we were going to take on any new military regime.

The coup was staged on November 17, 1993. A reticent, seemingly apolitical General Sani Abacha with a voracious appetite for alcohol, women and public funds, was named Head of State and Diya as his Deputy. Dr Onagoruwa was named Attorney General and Minister of Justice, and my former employer in the GUARDIAN Newspapers, Mr Alex Ibru, became Interior Minister.

The more boisterous Diya, coordinator of the coup who seemed to have control of the new regime and the backing of many Generals, ran the show, while Abacha appeared to have taken a back seat.

The popularised objective of the coup was the de-annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election and swearing-in of Abiola as president. But this was not happening fast and there were worries. The impression was sold that a publicised meeting between Abacha and Abiola with Diya and Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu as witnesses, had ironed out things.

Some five of us leading the pro-democracy movement, including our leader, Dr Beko Ransome-Kuti, Dr Frederick Fasehun and Femi Falana met Chief Abiola the next day. First, we protested his public endorsement of the coup plotters. Secondly, we warned him that the Generals are untrustworthy and thirdly, made him know that we would oppose the new regime.

We were also angry about the elevation of Abacha who had on July 6, 1993 personally led heavily armed soldiers to maul down protesters demanding the restoration of Abiola’s mandate. On that day, Abacha and his murderous soldiers had shot dead 118 pro-democracy protesters in Lagos.

Abiola had characteristically tried to make light our protests. He told us that he met the diminutive Abacha because: “If you want to greet a dwarf, you have to bend down to his level.” Beko had responded that a dwarf can be placed on a pedestal rather than bending down to his level.

As the regime consolidated, it was not certain whether the Diya wing was still “standing on”, “sitting by” or even supporting June 12 mandate restoration.

Since Dr. Onagoruwa appeared quite influential and respected in the regime, was very close to Diya with whom he shared the same Odogbolu homestead, and was a mutual friend, Beko and I decided to have a talk with him. He invited us to his Odogbolu country home for a weekend where he assured us that Diya was in charge of the regime and could, if need be, instruct “the boys” to clear off Abacha who he said was called ‘Baba Go-Slow’ in the Executive.

Diya completely underrated Abacha and was basically incapable of reading the political situation. Even when those of us, outsiders could read changing situation, he could not. By the time Diya realised he was riding on a tiger’s back, he had practically ended up in its stomach.

Abacha had Ibru shot on February 2, 1996; he survived, but lost an eye and two fingers. He got his killer squad on June 4, 1996 to execute Mrs. Kudirat Abiola, Chief Abiola’s wife, on the streets of Lagos. Abacha went after Onagoruwa by killing his son, Oluwatoyin, a lawyer, on December 18, 1996. He then sent Diya to officially commiserate with him. Then, he went after Diya.

After two assassination attempts on Diya, including in December 1997, blowing up the aircraft he was to take on official assignment to Benue State, Abacha manufactured a phantom coup under which Diya in April, 1998, was sentenced to death. It was the second of such coups. The first was in 1995 under which men like retired Generals Olusegun Obasanjo and Shehu Yar’Adua were convicted. The latter was poisoned in Abakali Prisons.

After the sentence, videos emerged of General Diya kneeling down before Abacha, weeping and begging for his life. His life might have been spared only because Abacha lost his own on June 8, 1998. That enabled Diya to live another 25 years in virtual obscurity before he finally bowed out on March 26, 2023. May we never witness such regimes in Nigeria again. Amen!

For the third time in his chequered political career, Atiku Abubakar, failed to win the presidential election as a candidate. He came a distant third in his first attempt in 2007 when he vied on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) as the departing vice president who fought a battle with his then principal, Olusegun Obasanjo. This time around, he came second but the taste of defeat is perhaps even more bitter because of what might have been.

In that first bid in 2007, many political observers did not give him any chance of winning because of the many hurdles – political and legal – that he had to surmount to even be on the ballot. He had little or no time to campaign and could not have even defeated the then-ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the election if he had, essentially because the ACN was considered a regional party without a national appeal.

The candidate of the PDP, Umaru Yar’Adua, then outgoing governor of Katsina State, was declared the winner of the election by INEC. But the election is still considered one of the worst ever, based on the brazen malpractices which characterised it.

Even the declared winner, Mr Yar’Adua, a former Chemistry teacher from the famous Yar’Adua family of Katsina, acknowledged in a post-election speech that his victory was tainted but he held onto it with a promise to carry out electoral reforms that would help improve the country’s electoral process.

Atiku also tried to contest in 2011 and 2015 but did not go beyond the primary elections of the parties on whose platform he sought to contest.

Fast forward to 2019. The former customs operative and businessman had what in retrospect may now be considered his best chance to win the election because he ran on a formidable opposition platform – the PDP – at a time of raging insecurity and general disillusionment in the country over a poor economy, massive youth unemployment and surging inflation under a President Muhammadu Buhari who was seeking a second term in office.

Unfortunately, those who voted for the continuation of Mr Buhari in office were more than those who wanted Atiku, according to the official returns by INEC. And that was how his 2019 adventure collapsed like a pack of cards.

But before anyone could say Jack Robinson, the signs were there again, at least based on happenings within the PDP, that the serial contestant was going to throw his hat into the ring again in 2023, despite an intense clamour for the presidential ticket of the party to be ceded to the southern part of the country.

And true to the initial signs, Atiku vied for the ticket of the party which was thrown open and became the candidate for the 2023 elections. But this time, his nomination eventually left the PDP divided.

The PDP went into the election heavily divided and this seriously worked against its chances with Atiku being the biggest casualty, though he also contributed to the division in the party and its eventual failure in the election.

The factors

Three major factors contributed to his second-place finish in the election: the demand for power shift to the southern part of Nigeria, the disunity in the PDP and the Peter Obi factor

Power Shift

The outgoing President Buhari is from the north and it was, therefore, expected by many, based on convention, that presidential power should shift back to the south in the interest of fairness, justice and national cohesion.

The need for the successor to come from the south was why some APC governors, especially of northern states, insisted the presidential candidate of the party must come from the south. And true to their commitment, despite moves from some quarters to thwart it and keep the ticket of the party to the north, they kept to it, which helped Bola Tinubu to defeat other aspirants in the party’s primary election held in June.

But unlike the APC, PDP governors were divided on which region of the country should produce the presidential candidate of the party. While some openly campaigned for a southern candidate, some said the contest should be made open, which was what allowed Atiku to win the ticket, beating Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike to the second position.

The quest for power shift within the political parties also manifested in the larger polity with many Nigerians saying it was the turn of the south to produce the president. In a way, that also reflected in the voting pattern of the electorate. Despite two formidable candidates of southern origin running in the election, one of them still emerged as the winner with the other candidate, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, coming third.

Those who belong to the school of thought that power should shift to the south say any attempt to retain the presidency in the north after a northerner’s eight years in the office would threaten the unity of the country, and create disharmony and a state of perpetual north-south mutual distrust which may derail governance.

In retrospect, some analysts believe that had a southerner flown the ticket of the PDP in the presidential election, the candidate might have won because the ruling APC was considered a hard sell on many fronts going into the election: the terrible policies of the Buhari administration, prostate economy, galloping inflation, insecurity, the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling party and the candidate’s personal baggage, among others.

Peter Obi factor

The emergence of Peter Obi on the platform of the Labour Party created a third force which significantly impacted the outcome of the election on 25 February.

Mr Obi, who was the running mate to Atiku in 2019 on the ticket of the PDP, moved to the LP in 2022 after it became clear to him that he stood no chance of winning the PDP’s presidential ticket.

The entry of Mr Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, into the contest significantly altered the dynamics of the election, which, other factors considered, weakened the chances of Atiku in the election. For instance, Mr Obi won with wide margins in the South-east, which was a stronghold of the PDP in previous presidential elections, and also won Lagos State.

The Labour Party candidate’s impressive performance in some parts of the North-central and South-south regions also eroded the support base of the PDP in the election. In the past, PDP used to win convincingly in presidential contests in the South-south but only managed to win Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom in the 25 February election, with the Labour Party winning three of the others and APC winning Rivers State.

It is believed in some quarters that were Mr Obi not in the race, Atiku as the PDP candidate would have done much better in the election, despite the clamour for a power shift to the south, especially with the too many unforced errors of the Buhari administration such as the controversial naira redesign policy which led to a nationwide cash crunch, fuel scarcity and general disillusionment with the APC, among others, just a few weeks before the election.

Acknowledging the huge impact the Obi factor had on his chances in the election, Atiku said in one of his early post-election press conferences that the Labour Party candidate took a large chunk of his votes in the South-east and South-south regions, though he also said the votes from the two regions were not enough to make Mr Obi win the overall contest.

If Atiku had taken those votes instead and won overwhelmingly in the two regions, he would have beaten Mr Tinubu and come first in the election.

The disunity in PDP

The emergence of Atiku as its presidential candidate created a serious disunity in the PDP that the party and flagbearer could not resolve before the election. With the polarization of the party, it was easy to predict that the party would end up a loser, which happened eventually as Atiku came second in the election.

Following the victory of Atiku, a northerner, in the party’s primary election, some governors, later known as the G-5 governors in the party, had insisted that the now suspended national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, another northerner, should step down from the position to allow for a southerner to head the party.

The G-5 governors led by Governor Wike said they wanted regional balance in the party hence their insistence that Mr Ayu must resign, a position Atiku and some other top guns of the party like former Jigawa governor Sule Lamido did not buy into.

The other members of the G-5 are Samuel Ortom of Benue, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State. The presidential candidate of the PDP lost in all the states controlled by the G-5 governors, a development that might not have been if the aggrieved governors were on the same page with Atiku.

The failure of the two factions within the party to reconcile eventually snowballed into a bigger crisis which manifested in almost all the chapters of the party across the 36 States and the FCT.

The pre-election crisis in the party only worsened after the election with some top officials being suspended by its NWC for allegedly working against the interest of the party at the polls. Although the suspension has now been reversed, it nevertheless portends all is definitely not well with the party.

The national chairman of the party, Mr Ayu, now suspended, may also never smell the seat again. He was suspended by his ward in Benue State. The suspension letter dated 24 March was signed by 12 executive members of Igyorov Ward, Gboko LGA. The signatories claimed Mr Ayu worked against the party in the recent elections.

Interestingly, a day after Mr Ayu’s suspension, a high court in Benue State also gave an ex parte order which ordered Mr Ayu to stop parading himself as the national chairperson of the party. Obeying the court order, the PDP NWC has since asked Mr Ayu to step aside and elevated the deputy national chairman (North), Umar Damagum, to acting national chairperson in line with the constitution of the party.

The saying that a house divided against itself will always fall captures the fate that befell the PDP in the presidential contest and its candidate, Atiku, the self-styled unifier, who could not unify his own party before the main election. His inability to reconcile the warring factions in the party impacted his chance in the election. Atiku is, however, challenging the result of the election in court and will hope the courts buy his argument and declare him president-elect.

Unfortunately, however, this may be Atiku’s last bid for the Nigerian presidency.

[Premium Times]