In the Question and Answer session featured on this page last week was the issue of people who are mentally challenged. It was one of the questions I treated. In my further contemplation of the subject, I recalled a contribution to a publication in which what drives the brain was discussed by a professor though it did not touch on mental affliction that much beyond describing it as loss of psychic self-activation. The fascinating article by Professor Dieter Malchow was on whether or not it is the brain that decides for us as human beings. The editor of the publication in his introduction says: “When we think that we are making a conscious decision, the decision was already made long beforehand. Some neuroscientists conclude that the brain decides for us…” Prof. Malchow makes references to P. Haggard/M.Eimer: ‘On relation between brain potentials and the awareness of voluntary movements’; Chun Siong Soen: ‘Unconscious determinants of free decisions in human brain, Nature Neuroscience’; and Dr. Raymond A. Moody: ‘Life after life.’

Mankind is living in unique times, indeed, in the proverbial End-Time with the pressure of influences, a great many are hardly aware of even though they are afflicted by attendant perplexities practically daily. The world has just witnessed a devastating earthquake in Turkey spreading to Syria, in which 47,000 people died, severe winter storms, flooding, and landslides in California over which Joe Biden declared an emergency, and unrelenting protests in Israel. Following is an excerpt from Prof. Malchow’s article the content of which is as relevant today as it was when it was published about 10 years ago:

“Deciding consciously is an everyday experience for us humans. We can hardly imagine that the vast majority of transactions that are important in our life proceed unconsciously in the brain, thus that the conscious represents, figuratively speaking, only the tip of the iceberg. And yet it is so. The regulation of body functions such as breathing, sleeping, waking, body temperature, heartbeat, digestion, and so on, are unconscious processes. The same applies to most of the data processing that goes into sensory perception. In vision, for example, each image falling on the retina is broken into mosaics in the brain. The first area in cerebral cortex, called ‘V1’, determines the contours, edges and lines. If ‘V1’ is destroyed, the affected individual is blind. The second area, ‘V2’, recognises larger patterns, for example, forms, which are in reality non-existent, such as the well-known ‘Kanisza triangle’. Towards the top of the hierarchy of visual processing in the brain are areas for the presentation of dynamic form (‘V3’), colour (‘V4’) and motion (‘V5’). A test for shape perception may show impairment in some people. These patients cannot recognise and allocate even simple forms correctly. If the connection to these higher is destroyed but ‘V1’ is intact, the person can draw the lines of a building exactly, but he no longer knows what it represents. Such a person is for example aware of the lines as they are shown in the drawing, he can see them, but they make no sense to him; he cannot put them in any context.

“The higher areas are thus used for understanding what we see. There are also places in the cerebrum for analysis of objects, buildings and faces. Only after these processing operations does the visual information get to the so-called association areas, where the perceptions from different sensory channels, such as hearing, seeing and feeling, interact. It has not yet been possible to investigate whether the original picture is reassembled here or elsewhere. Nor, above all, do we know who looks at this picture that we have in our mind’s eye. Is there a homunculus located in the brain? Or is the viewer the real human ‘self’?

“The example of the processing of visual impressions shows what feats the brain achieves in the representation of the outside world. An ‘external world’, which appears to be very real, but in reality is computed in a sophisticated manner by the brain—unnoticed by us—from the data obtained by the sensory organs. We only become aware of the final result of this process—probably when the information emerges in the described association areas of the brain. Conscious processes are thus by comparison slow, needing time to develop. Therefore, everything that must proceed fast takes place unconsciously, such as for example, the return service of a tennis ball or an ‘involuntary’ reaction in road traffic when trying to avoid an accident. Knowing the importance of unconscious processes raises the exciting question: Does the brain really decide for us and hence is there no free will? Or does the so-called ‘unconscious’, from which the decisions emanate, have a deeper, yet unidentified relevance in our being?

“The animal acts in accordance with its instincts and on the basis of what it has learned. Only the human being has a free will. That was at least until recently the unanimous view. The freedom of decision brings as a consequence responsibility for all actions. We cannot hold animals liable, but humans, yes. This is an important basis for our self-conception. By virtue of the question whether and to what extent we are responsible for our actions it is important to know whether we actually have a free will –although the term ‘free’ here does not mean absolute freedom, but the possibility of being able to decide anew in every situation, even if the current way of life may already suggest a fixed choice.

“Some time ago, about 38 years ago, the American physiologist Benjamin Libet (1916-2007) tried to prove this free will with the help of a scientific experiment. Volunteers had to note the time when they felt the urge to lift their hands. This time was recorded as the moment of volitional impulse. At the same time the brain waves (the so-called readiness potential) preparing the movement of the hand were measured. It was surprising that the brain waves preceded the test subjects consciously making their decision to execute the gesture. The brain was preparing the hand movement 300 milliseconds before the volunteer became conscious of his decision to lift the hand. The results of the ‘Libet experiment’ was hotly debated, because how can we speak of a free will if the brain reacts before we make a conscious decision? Critics objected that there was no choice open to the subjects in this experiment—except with regard to time.

“Many years later, the neurophysiologist Patrick Haggard and the psychologist Martin Eimer took this objection on board in another experiment. Their test subjects could now choose with the right hand or the left hand to press a button. The measurement of the brain waves was also improved. It was now possible to recognise the intention of the participants—whether they decided in favour of the left or right hand. The result of the new experiment corresponded to that of Benjamin Libet: the brain already reacted before the conscious volition; the brain waves rose beforehand on the side opposite the selected hand, making predictable the decision which hand test subject would move. This suggests two conclusions: either the brain decides for us and free will is only an illusion—or the so-called ‘unconscious’ leads us to a deeper dimension of our being. The thesis from these experiments that the brain decides for us and the personal free will is obsolete sparked vehement protest among art scholars and lawyers that has persisted to this day. John Searle, a renowned American philosopher, pointed out that we cannot think away our freedom. In choosing a meal at a restaurant it is practically impossible to say to the waiter: ‘Look I am a determinist, I’ll just wait and see what I order. Que sera, sera.’ Searle concluded from this humorous example that the refusal to exercise free will is itself only intelligible to the person if it is conceived as an exercise of free will: ‘I do not want to decide’—this resolve can itself only be regarded as a free decision.

“Do the unconscious processes represent the self? The self or ego of man could initially make itself felt via unconscious information pathways. Let us examine more closely what takes place in the brain when a conscious decision is taken. Obviously every conscious action, simple as it may occur to us in everyday life, is accompanied by complex biological processes in the brain that allow us to comprehend it as carried out by ourselves. Before an action, the brain works out a detailed plan of which areas are to be activated in carrying it out. After the action the brain receives a feedback from the body on the completed activity, which is then antedated. For it is only if the action follows the decision immediately will we regard something as willed and carried out by us. There are patients in whom no feedback occurs. These regard their actions not carried out by themselves, they feel other-directed. The brain, therefore, plans and prepares actions, even before we are aware of anything. This ‘rush ahead’ by the brain can be easily seen with tickling. If you tickle yourself, nothing happens, because with the unconscious decision to tickle yourself the body has already been forewarned and cannot be surprised. Therefore, we can only be tickled by another person.

“New findings in brain research have shown that there are regions in the brain, which, when decisions are made and plans are worked out, become active much earlier than that region Libet had observed in his experiment. It was found that they engaged in activity before the test subjects consciously made the decision to press the button with the left or right hand. Although the fore brain is quite known for conscious processes, all these activations manifest before we are conscious of a decision. Let us return to our original question: does the brain decide for us and is freewill an illusion? Or is there a free will, to start with, that is expressed through the so-called ‘unconscious?’
“In the first case, we together with our background, origin, and everything that has shaped us would be determined by the wiring of our brain, all steps and actions causally determined. If this were so, we would have no free will, but also no responsibility. This idea, however, ignores the reality. We experience in most cases people who need to use their will, in order to learn, for example, an occupation and progress in it. Weak willed people suffer frequently from consequences of this weakness, bringing along discontent and misery. Often they are dependent on the help of others. Patients who suffer from ‘PAP syndrome (loss of self-activation’)) lack of inner drive and therewith will. They spend their time, for example, counting the lines on the ceiling or turn appliances on and off incessantly. Only by telling or commanding them are they able to get up and do something meaningful. If the address stops, they immediately relapse into silence and apathy. If asked what they are thinking they reply: ‘nothing!’—and they describe their inner state as empty. They feel neither sorrow nor joy. Such extreme examples illustrate that as an expression of our will, our inner motivation is connected directly or indirectly with emotional processing, and that we need our will to live. It is part of our being human. This makes the second alternative more likely to be the conclusion from findings of brain research: there is a free will, though this is initially expressed through unconscious processes in the brain. But where is the seat of this free will of man, which has to account for its decisions?

“The brain itself as an organ of the body cannot take on responsibility. The bearer of the will must logically be a person. Do we meet here the human ego which has by its very nature a different consistency and expresses itself physically initially through unconscious processes? That this reasoning may be correct is shown by accounts of near-death experiences. An extensive literature confirms that due to lack of blood circulation in heart failure or accidents, but also by artificial stimulation of the brain, a conscious state occurs outside the body, in which the affected individuals are looking down on their lifeless bodies. They experience a new state that is characterized by weightlessness, the ability to reach through objects and persons, an inability to make themselves felt, but also by being able to describe the resuscitation attempts exactly and also make decisions. These accounts show that we can free ourselves from the body; we are then left with a finer, lighter figure, which can be called soul. In His Work, ‘In the Light of Truth’ Abd-ru-shin explains that the soul obtains connection with the body through the solar plexus. The soul incorporates our inner-most core of being, and it is this which expresses its will and makes decisions. In the process, first the solar plexus is activated and subsequently the brain. Since the soul is not identical to the body, there is a mechanism which ensures that the soul becomes conscious of events in the physical world through the brain, and another by which we regard our action as carried out by ourselves. Neuroscience grants insights into these mechanisms. The experiments show two things: that what we are conscious of is prepared and accompanied by unconscious processes and that free will cannot be fixed in the brain itself. But the experiments express nothing about the real origin of the impulses to make a decision.

“The free will arises from our innermost core of being, which is not in the brain, but in the soul. We perceive this core as ‘inner voice’, by our ‘gut feeling’, by the urge to act in a certain way. If we yield to this urge aright, the result is a feeling of happiness; our mood is uplifted, increasing our well-being. All these characteristics are evidence of the presence of the soul in the body. The soul perceives itself through intuitive perception. The afore-mentioned limbic system is in contact with the solar plexus. Everything experienced personally stirs the soul. The limbic system functions as information carrier to and from the brain. If the connection to the limbic system is disturbed, as in the case of the ‘PAP syndrome’, the emotional impulses cannot be perceived. That the unconscious responds in advance of the conscious is nothing unnatural or mystical but simply an expression of our ego or self, our inner core of being in a finer, lighter figure: the soul. The soul is only mysterious because it eludes measurement. From person to person, however, the soul manifests itself without further ado—through radiation, the expression of the eyes, the posture or the voice. The idea that the self is identical with the brain is based on the experience that the brain is where thought is produced, and emotional stirrings can be suppressed with the intellect. If we unite the findings of the new experiments in neuroscience with the analysis of near- death experiences, it is clear that it is not the brain that decides for us. We have a free will. This arises from our innermost core, which lies in the soul. But at the start it expresses itself unconsciously –as does true love.”

Now that Nigeria’s next census date has been officially confirmed, I am curious if the exercise will provide a different picture of our population distribution or merely validate the status quo. Anyone who has been a Nigerian for long enough already knows that the national population is a continuation of the politics of power by another means. Virtually every census in modern Nigeria has been vigorously challenged for its statistical accuracy and, of course, its ideological agenda.

Far more than serving the purposes of efficient national planning—the officially touted reasons for holding them—censuses in underdeveloped societies like ours use purported scientific means to entrench power and allocation of resources. They are susceptible to weaponisation by those who will use their supposedly empirical means to justify undue allocation of resources (and, therefore, cannot but be contentious).

Given that national legislative seats were historically apportioned—and political offices are still handed out—based on perceived demographic distribution, a credible census in these parts is a unicorn sighting. Our political leaders are over-invested in maintaining the official population distribution figures in all their skewed ingloriousness. Like our periodic elections where those whom the odds already favour still rig to pre-empt their opponents’ rigging, census figures are swelled up in anticipation of others cooking them too. By the time everyone steals in order not to be stolen from, we end up with a process that undermines us in every way.

For the May 3 to 5 census though, we have been promised a far more credible process because the counting process will be digital. On its website, the Nigerian Population Commission boasted that the impending digital census “will change how the census is being conducted in Nigeria before now.” Again, if you are a Nigerian, that boast must be familiar. We have seen how far over-valorised digital techniques get us.

As efficient as they can be, technological tools are not magic wands that can be waved over the myriad of Nigeria’s other sociological problems. A mere tool in the hands of humans, technology’s effects are not independent of users’ technical capabilities and ethical judgment. No matter how many dazzling toys of digital technology the NPC has acquired, what will matter at the end of the day is the integrity of the agency.

The poet, Amiri Baraka, once noted that “machines have the morality of their inventors.” Indeed, technology is never neutral, even if it appears to have no mind of its own. Algorithms and their effects are never exclusive of the passions of the humans that wrote their codes. For nations like Nigeria that do not invent technology but mostly use what others have built, what the tools reproduce is the ethic of the incompetence of our society. It is why the digitised processes that work seamlessly elsewhere—from transitioning to a cashless society, digitising public records, and even basic bureaucratic processes—have been as hard in Nigeria as pulling a tree trunk.

The recent elections are examples. Despite how much the Independent National Electoral Commission trumpeted the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System as a revolutionary device, its game-changing capacity ultimately bowed before the legendary Nigerian incompetence. It was a costly election but lacked credibility. As it turns out, machines cannot redeem an amoral society.

The NPC can boast that their digital tools are a game changer, but it will take institutional integrity to not merely reproduce the same lopsided figures that Nigeria has brandished for decades. As I noted recently, if there is something the serial paltry voter turnout at our elections has shown, it is the deceptiveness of the figures that have been touted as the Nigerian population. It is a myth that has become the official narrative. On several population clocks, Nigeria is listed as having over 200 million people. This misattribution is partly a problem of official dishonesty and partly an issue of our society’s numeric illiteracy.

Here is an example of both instances compounded: recently, Communications and Digital Economy Minister (and alleged professor of cybersecurity) Isa Pantami, said they recorded 12, 988 978 million cyber-attacks on cyber facilities during the election. For an election where 25 million people supposedly voted, Pantami’s figures are strange. He also claimed that on February 25 alone, they recorded about 6, 997 277 threats (please note how the stated numbers try so hard to be precise rather than round figures). On average, for every two votes cast during that presidential election, there was at least one cyber threat.

One would have thought that Pantami produced those figures in a state of delirium, except that he claimed they were findings of an inaugurated committee. But how are such figures plausible? Not even the Pentagon can withstand 12 million threats in four days, and that is an agency with about the most sophisticated software in the world! No reasonable organisation will stand by, recording relentless threats to its systems without launching a counter-offensive. Was there any point they traced and arrested those behind that many attacks? For an ICT minister to make that kind of claim publicly—and even list it in official records—Pantami is being deceptive.

Instructively, that kind of official deception combined with the inability to quantitatively comprehend the significance of numbers explains our failures to count –and account—for ourselves as a society. Will the NPC do any better, or would we have merely used the tools of digitality to entrench lies?

The February presidential election that saw people leaving their houses early to get ahead in the queues did not produce more than a voter turnout of a paltry 25 million (before adjusting for reported instances of electoral malpractices). Besides the electoral turnout figures, only 95 million—up till January—have registered for the NIN (and that is a figure that captures all age ranges). When you study the graph of NIN registration, you can see that the numbers have peaked. There are no other 95 million or more people still awaiting registration. Those who insist that some 120 million people are not captured in the national database should consider the number of active phone lines in the country. The most recent figures show that active phone lines are around 222 million. In a country where most people have a minimum of two phone lines, it is not hard to see from these figures that no large section of undocumented Nigerians are waiting to come out of the rural areas. We are not that many, simple. What we see is what exists.

Finally, more than a one-time exercise, I hope to see the Nigerian state put the findings to judicious use. That means the processes will need sustaining, especially if the findings do not corroborate official narratives. Without constantly updating the NPC database to reflect birth and death rates, the whole exercise might as well be pointless. Equally, a credible census can also help infuse credibility into adjunct social and processes. If the NPC database is synced with other collated ones, such as INEC’s voter register (and the NIN and the BVN), they can be a better audit of the national population. We can get as far as eliminating the corruption endemic in electoral processes like underage voting and multiple voting. We can also produce more efficient surveillance systems. Overall, there are potential gains to be made if the NPC can pull off a credible census. They have acquired the machines, but do they have the integrity to make them work efficiently? What will Nigeria’s digital census find?

With the elections over, and at a time you expect the PDP to regroup, the leaders are now squealing on one another. You hear stories of over a thousand vehicles that can now not be accounted for as well as tales of how billions of Naira and hundreds of millions of Dollars were being distributed and who got what. Nigerians are also being regaled with stories of internal sabotage, betrayals, and double-dealings. In what appeared an attempt to douse the raging fire, the PDP, at the instance of the president, on Tuesday, constituted a review committee to identify, among other things, “the remote and immediate causes of the relatively poor performance of the PDP in the 2015 general election.” With three weeks to submit its report, committee chairman, Senator Ike Ekweremadu said at the occasion: “Much as we are pained by the sad turn of events, we must come to terms with the fact that anger, recriminations, self-pity and blame trading will not take us even an inch away from the harsh outcomes of the 2015 general election.” 

How the PDP resolves its internal contradictions is of no concern to me. But like many Nigerians, I am interested in seeing the party overcome its current difficulties…All over the world, presidents and prime ministers lose elections but their parties survive to carry on the work of democratic engagement in the political space. In the instant case, President Goodluck Jonathan has lost an election and his party runs the risk of completely disintegrating in the aftermath. While the PDP may have its down sides, its survival beyond the Jonathan presidency has become a matter of national political security. 

The PDP was founded and sustained on the assumption that it would remain in office and preside over the sharing of national resources indefinitely. Now that it has lost its power of patronage at the centre, the party could starve to death as President Jonathan himself predicted recently. He warned those trooping to the APC that they may return with ’empty stomach’. That presidential prophesy, an issue for another day, also says a lot about what public service has been reduced to in Nigeria: it is almost always about some people looking for something to eat! 

All factors considered, the task of stabilising our political space by helping the PDP come back on its feet belongs not only to genuine party members but indeed also to the more perceptive national elite, including those of us in the media. It is in our enlightened self-interest to have a formidable opposition party so that our democracy can thrive… 

I crave the indulgence of readers for that lengthy recollection from my 7^th May 2015 column following the defeat of President Jonathan by the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari. When I first wrote ‘Inside the PDP Tower of Babel’, I never intended a sequel. Sadly, as we have seen in the past eight years, the PDP seems incapable of managing defeat. Considering the suspensions, counter-suspensions, and cross-suspensions we have witnessed in recent days, and the way our courts are being dragged into their squabbles, it is important that we examine how the main opposition party can be salvaged from its internal contradictions in the interest of our democracy.  

Political parties are supposed to represent the best expression of pluralism within the polity and serve as a fundamental instrument for popular participation in governance. The challenge of our country is that our political parties not only lack internal democracy, but their promoters have scant regard for their own rules. For instance, Article 57 of the PDP constitution stipulates how a national officer can be removed from office. Suspension by ward or state organ is not one of them. But most PDP chairmen have lost their jobs through dubious suspensions that violate the basic tenets of the party’s constitution followed by contrived court actions.  

On Tuesday, the PDP announced the replacement of its national chairman, Iyorchia Ayu with the deputy national chairman (North), Umar Damagum, in acting capacity. The action was in deference to Monday’s ex parte order from a Makurdi High Court in Benue State, asking Ayu to stop parading himself as the party’s national chairman. It is not lost on observers that Ayu was forced out within hours of describing his suspension as an act of “gross illiteracy, ignorance, gambling and desperation”. If Ayu challenges his removal in court, as his media aide hinted, he would simply be seeking equity with unclean hands. Ayu was also a beneficiary of this lawlessness when in October 2021, Uche Secondus was illegally suspended by his ward in Rivers State, before a tenure guaranteed to end on 9th December 2021 was terminated by default.  

The current drama began last Thursday with the suspension of a few powerful members, including former Governor Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti, his Katsina State counterpart, Ibrahim Shema, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Anyim Pius Anyim. The party also referred the Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, to the national disciplinary committee. Whatever the merit of that action by Ayu and his henchmen, it is rather curious that a political party in court to claim its “stolen mandate” would unwittingly be telling Nigerians that self-sabotage was responsible for the outcome of the polls! 

In a scathing letter to the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), Anyim admitted working against the PDP candidate during the gubernatorial election in Ebonyi State. He also confirmed that he worked for the victorious APC candidate. And he justified both decisions before throwing a sharp jab at the party’s leadership. “I thought the concern of the NWC now would be how to undertake a thorough self-examination on why they performed so poorly in the 2023 elections rather than seek to further divide the party by shifting blames,” Anyim wrote in his private-public letter. “It is clear that arising from the leadership style of the NWC, many members, intentionally and proudly, worked against the party including members of the NWC.”  

If PDP leaders could “intentionally and proudly” work for the opposition (as was evident in many states across the country), how do you expect such a party to perform at the polls? Then Anyim threw this dagger: “It is a display of innate cowardice for the NWC to choose soft targets to suspend and fear those that daily demonize them.”  

In case PDP NWC members do not understand what Anyim is saying, let me break it down for them. He is posing specific questions: Why was the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike who publicly led the revolt against the party and boasted about it not suspended along with others? Chief Olabode George, a former PDP national vice chairman and respected party elder, openly campaigned for the Labour Party gubernatorial candidate in Lagos, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour and supported Mr Peter Obi during the presidential election. George has since granted several interviews to justify the choices he made during the elections without being met with the charge of ‘anti-party activity’. 

Several other top PDP politicians across the country openly worked against the candidates of their party during this election cycle. But the elephant in the room remains Wike. It is on public record that the Rivers State Governor openly campaigned against the PDP presidential candidate with his signature taunt song, ‘As e dey pain dem, e dey sweet us’. When Atiku lost, Wike celebrated with a 40-year-old Whisky! So, on what grounds was his name excluded from the list of those to be suspended? I suspect it was out of fear of the bombshell Wike might throw at many of the NWC members should they dare to include his name on that list of “soft targets”, to borrow Anyim’s words. “I beg them (PDP leaders) today to suspend me from the party; they know what I will do”, Wike once threatened before the elections. “If Nigerians hear a lot of things going on now in the party that wants to take over from the present government, it will shake the country.” 

As I wrote recently, conventional wisdom is that those who live in glass houses don’t walk naked. I referenced the viral video a day after the party’s national convention that nominated Atiku as the PDP presidential candidate, where Ayu venerated the Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, as a hero. “For a national chairman to go and embrace Tambuwal, calling him the hero of the convention meant that there was a private arrangement that was done to short-change other contestants,” former Plateau State Governor, Jonah Jang, a Wike supporter had said while arguing that Ayu had lost credibility as PDP leader. “Here was a referee who helped one of the sides to score a goal and then blew the whistle. This is not what we formed the PDP to do for Nigerians.” 

As national chairman, Ayu ought to have stayed above the fray. By behaving like the campaign manager for Atiku, he opened himself up to the attacks that followed. And Ayu should have resigned when he became a divisive figure in the party, especially given an earlier promise that he would relinquish his position if a northerner emerged as the presidential candidate. Since he lost the PDP primaries last June, Wike has been on the offensive against Ayu with sundry allegations of impropriety. In one of his tirades against the former national chairman, Wike threw this sucker punch that is yet to be replied: “If people know what we know, if we release what we have, Ayu’s children will go to him and say we are no longer your children.” 

I understand that the signatures of the Ward exco used to secure the court order which toppled Ayu were forged. But with PDP, such things don’t matter. The important thing is for the end to justify the means and in this case, Ayu’s continued stewardship had become a nuisance. Now that he has been ousted, has the PDP problem been resolved? Certainly not. In fact, the problem has been compounded with contending factions and interests scheming to hijack the party’s leadership.  

President Jonathan’s prediction that many of those who left the PDP to help the APC win the 2015 general election would soon return is instructive. In fact, by 2019, the three leading presidential contenders were APC returnees: Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, then Senate President Bukola Saraki and Tambuwal. Since there is yet no device to measure the ‘stomach’ of a politician, there is no way to know whether they returned ‘empty’ or ‘full’. But it says a lot about party discipline (or lack thereof) that one of them (Atiku) became the PDP presidential flagbearer for the 2019 general election and barely seven years later, another APC returnee, Ayu, became the national chairman! 

That we practice politics without principle is one of the dangers of the current democratic dispensation. In 2015, the National Assembly had to bend its own rule on ‘ranking members’ in the election of principal officers to accommodate a fresh Senator in Godswill Akpabio to become the Minority (PDP) Leader. Three years later, the ‘uncommon transformer’ of Akwa Ibom State (who may be the next Senate President if you believe what Abuja politicians are saying) dumped the PDP and the position he held to become a floor member in the APC to which he had crossed. 

What is happening in the PDP provides a window into party politics in Nigeria. Ordinarily, political parties should be avenues for the contestation of ideas about how society should develop and thrive. But political parties in Nigeria (without exemption) are mere vehicles for seeking government offices. It is therefore no surprise that they have yet to demonstrate they are driven by the core value of promoting the common good. The situation is worse in most of the fringe parties that are no better than business ventures promoted by mercantile politicians who hawk them as platforms of convenience for any interested person at every election season.    

Meanwhile, it is difficult for democracy to grow in a milieu where every politician wants to be in the ruling party – as is the case today in Nigeria. Inability to develop a culture of responsible opposition that could serve as a vanguard for holding the party (and people) in power to account is the result of too many ‘hungry’ politicians perpetually moving from one party to the other, seeking ‘greener pastures’. They fail to understand that democracy is imperilled when power mongers at the helm of government are not held in check by a strong and constructive opposition.

For the ruling party in Nigeria, the emergence of its national chairman, as I once wrote, is often akin to the way Mafia bosses choose their Consigliere (right hand man). The manner of their exit from office is also not different: A nod and a wink from the president and enforcers will handle the rest. For the 16 years PDP spent in power, that was the way almost a dozen national chairmen were hired and fired. Chief Audu Ogbeh was forced to append his signature to a resignation letter handed him by a self-invited guest (President Olusegun Obasanjo) to whom he had just offered a delicious meal of pounded yam. After quoting for President Jonathan the Biblical Psalm 62:11 (God has spoken once, twice have I heard; power belongs to God), the late Chief Vincent Ogbulafor had a case with the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) which rendered his position as PDP national chairman untenable. The APC has since taken over the PDP rule book, with the controversial dissolution of the Comrade Adams Oshiomhole-led NWC in June 2020 by President Buhari and last year’s unceremonious sack of Yobe Governor Mai Mala Buni as chairman of the Caretaker Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC). 

When a political party has no definable ideology, structure, or institutional memory, mechanisms for internal democracy will also be lacking. And when members of such parties find themselves in government, transparency and accountability will mean nothing. That explains the Nigerian condition today. In the real sense, our political parties are mere vehicles for hijacking power. And they are led by people who neither understand the rudiments of governance nor can advance the public good.  

I don’t know how PDP leaders will resolve their current crisis. But the only enduring way is for the leaders to respect their own rules. Political parties remain the framework for democracies to recruit and organize the populace for power contests. When they exhibit lawlessness in the management of their affairs, their elected members cannot serve the public interest. 

The Department of State Security Services, DSS, has confirmed a plot to install an interim Government in Nigeria and scuttle a handover to President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Below is a statement from the Service signed by its spokesperson, Peter Afunanya (PhD);

“The Department of State Services (DSS) has identified some key players in the plot for an Interim Government in Nigeria. The Service considers the plot, being pursued by these entrenched interests, as not only an aberration but a mischievous way to set aside the constitution and undermine civil rule as well as plunge the country into an avoidable crisis. The illegality is totally unacceptable in a democracy and to the peace loving Nigerians. This is even more so that the machination is taking place after the peaceful conduct of the elections in most parts of the country.”

“The planners, in their many meetings, have weighed various options, which include, among others, to sponsor endless violent mass protests in major cities to warrant a declaration of State of Emergency. Another is to obtain frivolous court injunctions to forestall the inauguration of new executive administrations and legislative houses at the Federal and State levels.”

“The DSS supports the President and Commander-in-Chief in his avowed commitment to a hitch-free handover and will assiduously work in this direction. It also supports the Presidential Transition Council and such other related bodies in the States. It will collaborate with them and sister security and law enforcement agencies to ensure seamless inaugurations come 29th May, 2023.”

“Consequently, the Service strongly warns those organising to thwart democracy in the country to retract from their devious schemes and orchestrations.”

“Stakeholders, notably judicial authorities, media and the Civil Society, are enjoined to be watchful and cautious to avoid being used as instruments to subvert peace and stability of the nation. While its monitoring continues, the DSS will not hesitate to take decisive and necessary legal steps against these misguided elements to frustrate their obnoxious intentions.”

[PoliticsNigeria]

The Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Paystack, Shola Akinlade, has bought a 55 percent stake in a second-division Danish club, Aarhus Fremad.

The 76-year-old Danish club will become a sister club to Sporting Lagos FC, a Lagos-based football club in the Nigeria National League founded by Akinlade in 2022.

According to a statement by Sporting, the deal will create opportunities for European exposure for its best teams, and further help its efforts to develop youth football in the country.

Speaking on the acquisition, Akinlade said, “I am truly honored and excited to embark on this new chapter with Aarhus Fremad and further our shared commitment to engaging and empowering local communities.

“By strengthening the relationship between Sporting Lagos and Aarhus Fremad, we aim to create an environment that fosters education, growth, and opportunity for our players and the community at large. I have the utmost confidence in Lars Kruse’s continued leadership as CEO, and together, we will strive to maintain the values and long-term goals that have made these clubs such a cherished part of their respective communities.”

Commenting on the investment, Lars Kruse, said, “It has been an exciting process, from when I first heard that they had spotted us in Fremad all the way from Nigeria to where we are standing now.

“It is fantastic that there are people with the right mindset who see football as a catalyst for many other things – and in terms of values, Sporting Lagos is a Nigerian Aarhus Fremad. In practical terms, the agreement means that we can have a much larger perspective in Fremad, as well as an international dimension to work with.”

Arhus Fremad is currently top of the 2nd division and might be promoted to the country’s second-best league.

Despite this, the club has been running a deficit with CEO and former primary equity owner Lars Kruse covering it.

In its latest financial report, the club has made a loss of two million kroner over the past two years.

“I’ve been completely honest that I needed some help. I didn’t want to throw it all under the bus, and I’ve always thought that someone must come along when we’ve been as good as we’ve been,” Lars Kruse told Danish newspaper, Århus Stiftstidende.

[OpinionNigeria]

The death, on Sunday, 26th March, 2023, of Gen. Oladipupo Diya, brought memories, fond or otherwise, flooding our memory, chief of which must be the coup, real or concocted, that Diya and other Generals were alleged to have been implicated in, on 21 December, 1997, aimed at toppling the vile dictator, Gen. Sani Abacha. In all, 26 civilians and soldiers were accused of treason, the majority of them Yoruba; they faced the death penalty if found guilty. Dragged before a kangaroo military tribunal and deemed guilty even before the trial had begun, six of the accused, including Diya, were handed the death sentence. The condemned persons however later got a reprieve as their death sentence was commuted to 25-year jail-term. With the death of Abacha on 8 June, 1998, Diya and the others were released by Abacha’s successor, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, on March 3, 1999.

Three events will always remain fresh in my mind when the name of Gen. Diya is mentioned and all three have one thing or the other to do with the pro-democracy activism that attended the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won squarely by MKO Abiola. The election was annulled by the military junta of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and a heroic battle to upturn the annulment began. NUPENG, led by Frank Kokori, grounded the country as there was no fuel anywhere. The fuel scarcity of that period was worse than the one experienced in the past few months. It was like in those days when there was famine on earth and Tortoise led other beings on a trip to heaven in search of food. A cousin of mine was a prayer partner to Chief Okenla, a friend of Diya. On this fateful day, I accompanied her to the meeting somewhere at Maryland, Ikeja where Diya was present. Afterwards, we complained of no fuel and one of the military top brass who was on hand to receive Diya asked us to follow him to the Ikeja cantonment to fuel our cars. A few metres to the entrance to the cantonment, there was this car driving against traffic towards the cantonment. The General, in mufti, flagged him down. The cockish offender stepped out of his car and announced himself: “I am Captain Ode” The General replied: “Very good! I am General...”! Oh my God! Captain was whisked into the barracks but as fate would have it, he hailed from Owo, just like my cousin and I, and a known face for that matter. We had to whisper that into the ears of Chief Okenla who whispered it to Diya who promptly asked that the offender (aka Odeene) be forgiven.

The second event was during the burial of Pa Adekunle Ajasin (who died on 3 October, 1997), former governor of old Ondo State and NADECO leader. Diya came to represent the Federal Government at the final burial ceremony held inside the St. Andrews Church, Imola Street, Owo. Diya came in commando style and you cannot blame him much; those were the days when NADECO battled the military junta over the annulment of June 12, demanding that the military return to their barracks. Immediately they entered the vicinity of the church, the boys who accompanied Diya began to uproot and throw human beings like stones as they cleared the way for Diya. The service being done with, the VIPs moved to the graveside. When it was the turn of Pa Abraham Adesanya, the man stepping into the shoes of the late Ajasin as NADECO leader, to make his speech and the microphone was handed over to him, the boys swooped on him, snatched the microphone from him and handed it over to Diya. The Number Two man, who enjoyed calling himself the “Vice President of Nigeria” instead of his official title of Chief of General Staff and Vice Chairman of the Provisional Ruling Council, made his speech and immediately zoomed out of the place with his retinue of military aides in tow. Power is sweet!

The third event was during one of those many closures and proscription of the PUNCH newspapers, which I edited in those turbulent June 12 wahala periods. Joshua Agbeniga and I had been detailed to go to Abuja to meet Diya to appeal to him to help us re-open the newspaper. Agbeniga had manned the PUNCH office at Abeokuta when Diya was the Ogun state military administrator and was sure he had an excellent relationship with the Number Two man; together with my own contacts, the management thought we could make an impression on Diya. We booked an appointment through my cousin and went to Abuja. We were ushered into Commodore Olabode George’s office; he was the Principal Staff Officer to Diya. George had a very pleasant personality. I had interacted with him years back when I was Features Editor and he, the Military administrator of my native Ondo state. I had led my team there to interview his wife and First Lady, Feyi. “Lagos Boy”, as he was fondly called, George, with sorrow in his voice and tears in his eyes, told us stories of how Presidency/Northern cabals played on the intelligence of Yoruba Obas and elites to set them against Diya, thereby whittling down the powers and influence of the Number Two man. Were it not for that, he said Diya could have, on his own, re-opened our newspaper only to inform Abacha later.

After a little wait, George led us to Diya’s office where we met him busy on a pile of papers on his table. He greeted us warmly but regretted he could not help. He told us stories which tallied with what his PSO had told us. He then asked us to make our own personal requests. I declined to make any. Then he asked me, “You are from Ondo State, which of these two names will you recommend as your representative in the Constituent Assembly?” The first name, which I cannot now remember, was that of a Commissioner in Ondo state, a Dr. or Ph. D holder, who had recently been relieved of his post over a scandal; and the other name was that of Dr. Bode Olajumoke. I told him the first name, if chosen, would elicit bad press but that I understand the second name is said to be a friend of his boss, Abacha. Eventually, he chose Olajumoke. No sooner had we returned to George’s office than my partner requested that he be taken to see Diya again. George detailed someone to do so. On our way to our lodge at Nicon Noga Hilton, he asked me what the price of a plot of land could be in Abuja. I told him I had no idea.

No one is a saint. Diya was a jolly good fellow. He served under the Devil himself but providence ensured he escaped with his life. Now, he is gone the way of all mortals. Eternal rest, grant him O Lord!

RE: Gov. Akeredolu’s memorial park of controversy

Readers will remember my piece of the above title here last week in which I worried over the reported plan of the governor of my state, Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu, to demolish a building of historical and architectural importance to make way for a memorial park in honour of the victims of the June 12, 2022 terrorist attack on St. Francis Catholic Church, Owo. Our argument was that while the memorial park is a good idea, it should not be used to knock off a building which has history behind it as the place where the likes of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief SL Akintola, Chief Adekunle Ajasin and other top notch Action Group leaders were hosted during the official launching of the Action Group at the historic and ancient town of Owo on 28th April, 1951.

The good news is that the unexpected has happened: Akeredolu read the story the same day and acted. He decided the same day to spare the building and, furthermore, to convert it into a historical monument, like the first story-building in Nigeria located in Badagry, Lagos state. This tallies with our suggestion and it also sits pretty with the scions of the man who laboured to put up the building in question. Everyone is happy. It is a win-win situation for everyone and for posterity. One of the sons, an elated Banji Alabi, sent this message to me last Wednesday evening: "I just received a USD 9999 billion dollars phone call from the foremost, erudite (and) listening Governor of Ondo State, Arakunrin Rotimi Akeeolu, SAN, who announced to me that my father’s house will now become a monument to be preserved (as) historical heritage". Great! Good news! Arc. Yanju Alabi, my friend and president of my social club, the Krown Klub, Owo, who moved me in the first place to write last week’s story, recounts that House No 6, Igboroko Nla Street Owo was built between 1945 and 1947 and has a lot of historical, architectural and cultural values behind it. He appreciates Gov. Akeredolu and everyone, including this newspaper, that played a role in saving his father’s legacy and preserving it for posterity.

Nigeria has completed the 2023 general elections. This is the most expensive election in Nigerian history. Official budgetary expenditure for the election of president, vice president, governors and deputy governors, and federal and state legislators is about N400billion. Both the election management and the political party systems are broken. The result of this expensive junket will be plenty of election cases for the court to resolve. The judicialization of politics has become a defining characteristic of Nigerian political system. After electorates cast their votes, we still hold our breath to determine who is elected. The courts have the final say. Ordinarily, the courts never get to have a say. In Nigeria, the courts have a say in almost every election, saying the specter of judicialization of politics. Judicialization of politics is not acutest problem of Nigeria’s political governance.

The greatest challenge to democratization as a civic engagement in public leadership in Nigeria is the increasing criminalization of elections in Nigeria. Every election gets worse in Nigeria even as we spend more to make it better than the last. Since 1999, rigged elections have become a permanent feature of the Nigerian political landscape. This is more than the fact that votes are wrongly counted. It is mostly that people don’t actually to get to vote. In the past politicians made a pretense of counting these votes. They allow the people the good feeling that they really matter by taking some pains to count their votes and later replace the result with the super votes of  few men and women who write the real results. They prove true the saying attributed to Stalin that those who could the votes count more than those who cast the votes. Elections in Nigeria are a make-belief. And the make-belief has some ring of truth because, people truly vote. Only that those who count the votes count more than those who vote.

But on March 18, we saw an advancement in the technology of electoral make-belief. This time, we moved from electoral irregularities to electoral criminality. 2023 saw the increased mainstreaming of technology into electoral management. The virtue of technology is that it reduces irregularities and ensures greater reliability and transparency of electoral processes. Yes, technology makes it difficult for those who count the votes to easily override those who do the voting. Bi-Modal Voter Identification System (BIVAS) and the electronic transmission of results reduce the distance between votes and what the counters of votes declare. With that distance significantly narrowed, the only chance for criminal undertakers is to abrogate the right to vote for some, shut down technology and declare the will of ‘sovereigns’ as voting results. That was what desperate politicians and corrupt election managers did.

When you move from electoral irregularities to electoral criminalities, you have come to the end of election. No, that is not the end of election. It is rather the transmutation of election. It is election without democracy. We wrongly believe that elections are the essence of democracy. But democracy is more than elections. Elections are democratic if they meet key requirements. What are the substance and procedure of democracy?

There are two sanctified narratives of democracy. One narrative is based on the idealism of self-determination and the ideology of political equality. Democracy is the condition in which the people express that they are political equals by governing themselves through the laws they make for them. It is the state of political freedom. This ideal of democracy resonates whenever people accept political equality and believe that no one should be constrained and enslaved by the will of others. This ideology has been incorporated in the fundamental law of nations such that democracy is a universal creed to the extent that those who deny political equality continue to call themselves by its hallowed name.

Now, this ideology of democracy is a work in progress. Many scholars and thoughtful people do not accept that any country, even leading liberal societies like the US and UK, have attained democracy as dreamed. The leading scholar of democracy, Robert Dahl, argues that whereas democracy as an ideal is an aspiration which we never get to, democracy is also a set institutional representation that ought to be common experience. This brings us to the second narrative of democracy. In this realistic perspective of democracy, Dahl describes it as representation. It is a system which makes it possible that the government is responsive to the people.

Free and fair elections are at the heart of the second narrative of democracy, which is often called representative democracy or electoral democracy. In this narrative what matters is that people periodically choose their representatives who take over government on their behalf. Joseph Schumpeter was right to describe democracy as a system of government that allows the people to choose their leaders and then disappear. The practice virtue of this realistic perspective is that it is an efficient conflict resolution mechanism. The most persistent and fundamental problem of a society is how to choose who exercises political authority. Elections provide an efficient way of solving that problem. When it is done well it offers legitimacy to the political authority.

Elections are also desirable because they enable us to effectively promote the common good. Popular democracy or Athenian democracy enables everyone to take turns to deliberate and make laws that govern the commonwealth. Like in Athens and some of our villages in acephalous societies like the Igbo every adult male represents himself in person at the Agora. The limitations of this open democracy mean that elections become necessary to delegate some to attend to the common good of all. Where elections are successful, they achieve the strategic value of ensuring that those delegated to attend to the common good are always responsive to the needs and interests of the people who delegate them. In economic development, this responsive to citizens’ interests and opinion is the magic of democracy. Democracy may be a driver of development because it provides the incentives for political leaders to invest in economic development rather than predation. The mechanism that ensures this is free and fair election.

This practice virtues of legitimacy and effectiveness are what makes elections important to democracy. Elections are the heart of democracy because they provide incentives for leaders to cater to the needs of the people and not serve their own interests. Where elections fail as a mechanism of compelling the responsiveness of political authority to the needs and views of the people, then elections are no longer democratic. If we accept the logic of democracy as political equality, it means that every citizen will have an “equal and effective opportunity to vote, and all votes must be counted as equal”. For this to happen, there must be democratic institutions to protect the right to vote and ensure equality of votes.

This is the irony. A country like Nigeria without democratic and fair institutions will not have free and fair elections. Conditions for free and fair elections include that there is ample political freedom for people to form divergent opinions on political questions; that people can freely express such opinions; that people can organize themselves freely to express such views; and that they can trust state institutions not to repress them in the exercise of these political views. These broad human rights are underwritten by a state that is separate from the contending ideological and economic interests. If there are no neutral and professionally managed state institutions and if society has not evolved to the state of competitive balance of force through deep contestation, there can be no free and fair elections.

The 2023 election showed that Nigeria is not yet a democracy because its elections are neither free nor fair. Robert Dahl offers an important aspect of free and fair elections. As he argues, “To be free means that citizens can go to the polls without fear of reprisal; and if they are to be fair, then all votes must be counted as equal” (underline supplied). Considering the mass disenfranchisement of  thee Igbo in Lagos during the March 18, 2023 election, can it be said that the elections were free and fair? Think about many people who did not go to the polling units across the states because of fear of harm. Think about how security agents aided politicians to scare away voters in many places. Think about how many results of votes were mutilated and obliterated because the outcomes did not favor the incumbents.

What is clear to an objective assessor of Nigerian ‘democracy’ is that we do not yet have a democracy, and our elections are not democratic elections. Our election cannot be competitive if the state has not evolved to the state of competitiveness where due to the organizing norm of state institutions, they are impossible to be hijacked by incumbents or other powerful networks to defeat electoral challengers. Liberalization and competition are the two important features of a democratic election. If outsiders cannot successfully compete against ruling party or incumbents because state institutions aid incumbents, if incumbents and political hegemons control the means of violence and could deploy them during elections, then you cannot have democratic elections.

The moral of all these is that it is wiser to invest in building fair and free institutions that are not manipulable by incumbents and political heavyweights than to invest in the technology of free and fair election. Technology that promises reliability and transparency will easily be shut down by unprofessional and captured electoral management body. Imagine what the 2023 elections would have been if had an electoral manager who was above board and not constrained either by mode of appointment or the organization culture to play rogue and security agencies that would protect ballot boxes from banditry, rather than escort the bandits to steal votes and elections. Imagine the difference. This is why you need democracy before you get to free and fair elections.