The pundits who had predicted the outcome and the nature of the Gubernatorial election in Edo State got it all wrong. The Edo 2020 election may well prove to be a turning point in the management of elections in Nigeria, and if not, there are certainly lessons to be learnt from it. It was in every sense a rude awakening for both the actors in the drama and the community of observers who witnessed and monitored the election. Pundits predicted that the election would end up as war, a do –or die affair and that there would be blood-letting in all the state’s three Senatorial Districts. That didn’t happen. An official of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was shot in Etsako Central LGA, another person was macheted and given a cut on the face. In Orhionmwon LGA, a person was killed. In Egor, Ovia South West, Ikpoba-Okha, Oredo LGAs there were reports of skirmishes involving vote buying, and physical assault, but on the whole, the election went on peacefully. There were fears that voters would stay away from the polling stations, out of fear and anxiety, for indeed, before election day, September 19, campaign rhetoric was febrile, hate speech dominated political talk. The people had every reason to be afraid. 

Still about 25.2% of registered voters ventured out to exercise their right of franchise. Out of a total of 2.210,534 million registered voters, about 483, 000 did not pick up their voters’ cards, leaving behind a total of 1.7 million accredited voters. Out of these, barely 537,407 voters took part in the exercise, just enough to cover the event with a toga of legitimacy. There were fears about the readiness of INEC for the election. It was an off cycle election. It was a COVID-19 season election. INEC promised that it was ready and that it would do a good job. The Commission didn’t do too badly after all. Unlike what obtained in the past, ad hoc staff got their allowances. Concerns about the late arrival of election materials and the failure of card readers in some local governments were promptly addressed. INEC had insisted that voters should observe COVID-19 protocols. Many voters wore face masks, quite alright, but INEC was totally incapable of enforcing physical and social distancing. That was a major minus. Nobody should be surprised if there is a sudden spike in COVID 19 cases in Edo state after this election. 

In past elections, across Nigeria, there were complaints about security agencies and their performance. We have witnessed spectacles of policemen, soldiers, and other security agents constituting themselves into a nuisance on election day and after, acting, as it were, on orders from above, in an absolutely partisan manner. In Edo State on September 19, the various security agencies tried their best to be neutral. Nobody reported the usual story of uniformed men snatching ballot boxes and helping the ruling party to thumbprint ballot papers. There were no disturbing reports of police brutality or accidental discharge by soldiers. In Kogi, in November 2019, the Nigeria Police deployed helicopters to intimidate the people. A prominent female politician was set ablaze, and till date the case rests in a cold file that may never be opened. On September 19 in Edo State, Nigerians witnessed a most unusual election. Political actors respected the restriction of movement order. For an election that was presaged by serious tension and anxiety, that was quite an achievement. 

As it turned out, incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki who had crossed from the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to enable him seek a second term in office after he was rejected by powerful forces in the APC, emerged victorious.  He scored 307, 955 votes and won with a margin of 84, 336. His main challenger, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) scored 223, 619 votes. There were 14 political parties in the September 19 election, but it was basically a two-way horse race between the PDP and the APC.  It was as if all the other 12 political parties did not exist. Their votes taken together did not quite amount to 10, 000. One of the gubernatorial candidates was said to have been at home in Lagos on election day. She didn’t even bother to show up in Edo State. Democracy allows all sorts. Nonetheless, history was made. Obaseki is the second Governor in Nigerian history to win election within the space of four years, back to back on two different political platforms: the APC in 2016 and the PDP in 2020. Before him, there was in this regard, Samuel Ortom, Governor of Benue State, who became Governor as an APC  candidate in 2015, and as a PDP candidate in 2019. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the Edo 2020 key challenger, will also be remembered as having lost Gubernatorial elections back to back on two different platforms: PDP in 2016, and APC in 2020. 

Governor Godwin Obaseki has every reason to enjoy the taste of his victory. He was incumbent Governor but he was the underdog in the 2020 election. He was abandoned by the APC, the same party that presented him as flag-bearer in 2016. He was not allowed to take part in the same party’s primaries on the grounds that his academic credentials are fake. The campaign against him was led by Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the same man he served as  economic strategist and who in 2016 sold him to the people of Edo State as the best thing since the invention of fluoride toothpaste. Oshiomhole did a 360-degree volte face and abandoned Obaseki. He turned 360 degrees and embraced Pastor Ize-Iyamu, the same man he condemned in 2016. Obaseki had other enemies: the absentee 14 lawmakers of Edo State -  Oshiomhole’s loyalists who wanted Obaseki out of office. There were other local gladiators, including all the major 2016 Godfathers who now chose to turn against him. Captain Hosa Okunbor, a prominent businessman and a major stakeholder in Edo State who had supported Obaseki in 2016, an otherwise self-effacing Captain Okunbor walked out of the closet and threatened to spend his “last kobo” to remove Obaseki and make Ize-Iyamu Governor.

 In the larger community, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, national leader of the APC sponsored a video on television in which he advised the people of Edo State to reject Obaseki. Asiwaju Tinubu is a powerful political figure and Godfather. In Edo state, he teamed up with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and others to throw Obaseki into the dustbin of history. His loyalists and godsons relocated to Edo State to join the Ize-Iyamu campaign. The national anti-Obaseki team was led by the Governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Ganduje. I still can’t figure out how anyone would appoint such a controversial man as head of a campaign team. Locally, 42 members of the Obaseki administration resigned and abandoned him. Obaseki’s enemies had the Federal machinery behind them. They control the institutions and powers of the state. But today, they all have dust in their eyes. Obaseki, in a noteworthy re-affirmation of his name, won. God wins! What exactly happened?

Beyond the easy resort to a spiritual explanation and how man proposes and God disposes, or the omnipotence of the God factor, I think the result of the September 19, 2020 election in Edo State can be explained in 5 ways. Number one: the intervention of the United States and the United Kingdom on the eve of the election so to say, made a huge difference. The US issued a statement to say that it will impose and had already imposed restrictions on the visas of Nigerian politicians who committed electoral offences in the November 2019 elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states and who have behaved in similar fashion in the forthcoming Edo and Ondo Gubernatorial elections, on September 19 and October 10 respectively. The UK Mission in Nigeria followed suit by announcing similar measures with the addition that assets of Nigerian electoral offenders in the UK will be seized, and such persons will be prosecuted under international law. Thank you, US and UK. I am of the firm belief that the political actors who would otherwise have misbehaved in the Edo Gubernatorial election had to restrain themselves because of your intervention. They don’t want to be restricted. They don’t want to lose their visas. They need access to US and UK hospitals whenever they fall ill. They don’t want to be named and shamed. The Nigerian Government has complained about sovereignty and the right to fair hearing. I don’t know what that is all about. What we saw on September 19 was that there was no useless “order from above”. What we know is that the President of Nigeria was the first person to congratulate the re-elected Governor of Edo State.

Number two: the intervention of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Captain Hosa Okunbor, and the desperate anti-Obaseki campaign launched by the APC ended up working in Obaseki’s  favour Equity may not favour the indolent but it often favours the underdog. The all-powerful APC machinery was so targeted at Obaseki that unwittingly, the APC scored an own goal against itself. Days before the election, the people of Edo state began to ask questions. Adams Oshiomhole as Governor in the same state had campaigned against the influence of Godfathers. He practically drove Chief Anthony Anenih of blessed memory out of town. In 2020, Oshiomhole found himself in fits of self-contradiction as he repudiated everything that he ever stood for. He spoke from every corner of the mouth. He apologized to the people and the chiefs of Edo that he made a mistake in 2016. Did they believe him? I don’t think so. The same man could show up in 2024 and tell fresh stories. Obaseki’s victory is an outright rejection of Oshiomhole’s brand of politics. The people of Edo also rejected Asiwaju Tinubu’s busy-body intervention. This in fact inspired Edo nationalism. The people proclaimed: “Edo no be Lagos”. “Obaseki no be Ambode”. To this extent, the Edo Gubernatorial election was a protest against Godfatherism and an affirmation of Edo nationalism. The Edo people rejected the idea that anyone at all could dictate to them. They stood by whatever mistake anyone thought they made in 2016.  Very instructive. 

Number three: Obaseki was helped further by the PDP machinery. The PDP cashed in on the failure of the APC in Edo state and took maximum advantage of it. The party which claims that Edo is a PDP state, simply grabbed a rejected Governor of the APC and offered him everything that he wanted: a golden offer that accommodated his Deputy. It was a deft political move. The PDP used Obaseki’s defection from the APC to strengthen its base in Edo State. It countered every negative move by the APC by deploying its own aggressive campaigners, led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state. Others on the ground included the PDP members from Edo state who are members of the National Assembly and the local House of Assembly. Together, they deployed high-grade propaganda to shape public perception. The APC rejected Obaseki.  He found a new family. Big loss. 

Number five: Obaseki’s victory can also be linked to the politics of 2023. Unknown to many, some key figures in the APC worked for him. Edo became a battle ground for the Presidential politics of 2023. Those who do not want Oshiomhole and Bola Tinubu to determine the fortunes of the APC and Nigeria in 2023 moved in and checkmated the process. Realpolitik. 

The big take away in all of these is the prompt acknowledgement of Obaseki’s victory by President Muhammadu Buhari and his congratulatory message. Pastor Ize-Iyamu and the Edo branch of the APC have refused to congratulate Obaseki. They should take their cue from the President’s message who in this case, has done something that is quite uncharacteristic. Ize-Iyamu and his supporters claim they want to study the results. They are free to do so. But they should conduct themselves after the fashion of gentlemen and sportsmen. In the past, the APC got controversial rulings from the judiciary in election matters including the notorious case of Imo State where the Supreme Court elected a Governor from the Bench through dubious arithmetic. The judex should be careful. They need to read the press statements by the US and the UK.  They may be privileged but they are also not above international law!. 

President Muhammadu Buahri has advised Obaseki to be magnanimous in victory. He should take that to heart. Before the election, he had threatened to deal with Oshiomhole. He doesn’t need to deal with anyone. Oshiomhole banished the Godfathers that disturbed him from Edo State. He doesn’t need to be served a dose of his own medicine. Even those who promised to spend their last kobo on the September 19 election should be accommodated. Obaseki got a second term by defeating those who tried to play God in the affairs of Edo State. He himself must resist the temptation to act like God. The people of Edo State have reposed their confidence in him by giving him the opportunity of a second term in office. He must not betray their trust. He has promised to Make Edo Great Again. There are unresolved issues and uncompleted projects, and MOUs. He will be better off focusing on that. No man must play God. 

As for Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, let him be reminded that “except the Lord builds the House, they labour in vain that build it…” (Psalm 127: 1). Pick your phone, make that call and congratulate your brother, Godwin.  

It is now more than six months since Nigeria reported its index case of Corona Virus. On March 23, the country closed its airports to all international flights and commercial operations, for a month, in the first instance, with the exception of emergency and essential flights. Previously, in August 2019, the country had shut down its land borders in an attempt to check smuggling. With COVID-19, those borders remained closed. On March 30, 2020, at 11 pm, Nigeria began the first phase of its COVID lockdown - initially for a period of 14 days in Lagos and Ogun States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Gradually, the entire country was locked down. Inter-state movement was restricted. Curfew was imposed. Six months later, where are we? How safe are we as a people and as a country? What future challenges do we still need to worry about? What has been the impact of COVID-19 on our lives?

Today, as at the time of this writing, Nigeria has a total number of 56, 256 confirmed cases, 44, 152 discharged persons and 1, 082 deaths. These figures apparently do not reflect the true situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.  The situation is most likely to be worse, in part because Nigeria continues to struggle with testing and tracing of COVID-19 cases. After an initial problem with testing kits, reagents and the scarcity of basic medical infrastructure, Nigeria finally made its way to a point where, over the months, 35 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory could now boast of isolation and treatment centres. The number of laboratories also gradually increased. Nigeria can now test 15, 000 samples per day and so far over 400, 000 tests have been conducted. As a proportion of the country’s population of 200 million, that is a very small percentage indeed. Countries like Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, Senegal and Algeria have done much better. Part of the problem is that Nigerians are reluctant to embrace the option of voluntary testing even at government-owned centres where the test is free. Ordinarily, a COVID-19 test in Nigeria is about N54, 500. Treatment is expensive and definitely out of the reach of the poor who prefer alternative options: resort to magic, spiritualism or an unproven conviction that the virus only affects the rich and privileged. 

 the prediction that Africa would be worst hit by the pandemic has not come to pass. ... COVID-19, six months later, has exposed our vulnerabilities as a country and as a people. Nigerians have often paid lip service to the need to diversify the country’s economy

These are some of the reasons why the reported data may not be exact. Nor is the data on COVID-19 exact anywhere in the world due to differences in national capacity and tracking systems. In that wise, even the reported global figures of over 29 million cases, 929, 263 deaths, and over 21 million recoveries can be subjected to further questioning. Compared to other parts of the world however, African countries have done relatively well, with perhaps the exception of South Africa which has the highest number of cases, and which by the way, has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country in the continent. Africa doing well, can be explained on only one ground: the prediction that Africa would be worst hit by the pandemic has not come to pass. Ms Melinda Gates had much earlier in the year expressed the concern that African countries could end up like Ecuador with COVID-19 corpses littering the streets, overcrowded hospitals and cemeteries and a public health emergency that would overwhelm the continent. This has not happened. Scientists are therefore left with a puzzle:  Why is the virus more devastating in some parts of the world, and yet so mild elsewhere? Is there a genetic or zoonotic explanation for this? Or could it be that the worst is yet to occur in Africa where health infrastructure is poor, and the leaders listen more to prayer warriors and shamanists and treat scientists with disdain?  

Six months later in Nigeria, life has more or less returned to normal.  By May 4, the Federal Government announced a gradual and phased easing of lockdown measures.  A second phase was soon announced on June 29, for a period of 4 weeks. On July 27, this was further extended. By the end of August, Nigeria was back on its feet. Now, places of religious worship have re-opened. Schools also. Government advisers insist that the country needs to strike a balance between protecting lives and livelihoods and getting the people back to work, given the negative impact of the lockdown and restrictions in virtually every sector of the economy. For the most part, Nigeria simply adopted the COVID-19 guidelines and protocols recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the African Centre for Disease Control. The only problem that I have seen is that as the country re-opens, our people are now behaving as if indeed COVID-19 is gone. Widespread fear greeted the initial report of the pandemic. Panic followed. Nigerians no longer seem to worry. 

In Lagos, which for months was the epicentre of the pandemic, and still the state with the majority of cases, the people no longer wear face masks. They have bluntly refused to take responsibility. Commuter buses are routinely filled to capacity. Stores, supermarkets, banks and offices still insist on the “No Mask, No Entry” policy but really, nobody is afraid anymore. In the rural parts of the country, it is as if there was never anything called COVID-19: the deadly virus. Go across the country. People now shake hands. Hug each other.  Hold parties. Eat from the same plate. Politicians are beginning to criss-cross the country, and they are not showing good example. In states where there are scheduled elections, and campaigns are on-going, nobody observes any form of physical distancing.  I asked a prominent politician why he does not consider it necessary to insist on COVID-19 protocols during his campaign rallies. He confessed that it would be difficult to do that in politics.  People are just tired. COVID-19 fatigue may in the long run prove to be worse than the virus itself. Meanwhile, no flattening of the curve has been observed. 

There is need for caution, and perhaps this is where efforts need to be concentrated going forward. Nigerians and other Africans may just have been lucky so far with COVID-19. Nonetheless, it is better to learn from other countries and not assume that we are entitled to some form of scientific or divine immunity. As Nigeria fully re-opens, the government should not rule out the possibility of ordering a fresh lockdown in parts of the country should there be a sudden surge in infections. 

Today, many countries that opted for the lifting of the lockdown are now introducing stricter measures as they experience a second wave of the virus - as in India, Israel, France, Austria, South Korea, Germany, or a third wave - as in Hong Kong. For example, when Israel which had proven capable of containing the virus in March, chose to re-open its schools in May, its COVID-19 infection rates escalated rapidly to become one of the world’s highest per-capita rates. Israel had to shut down schools immediately and reintroduced stricter measures. Five times, in the course of the pandemic, South Korea tried to reopen its schools. When it eventually did so in May, it shut down the schools again within days after a sudden spike in cases.  Uruguay and Japan have done much better with the easing of lockdowns. But not Italy, which has now chosen to re-open its schools despite the rise in infections. 

The UK is another useful example. Faced with a sharp rise in the R-Number (that is the rate at which infection spreads from one person to others), the UK has locked down some communities. It has further introduced “the Rule of Six” which forbids the gathering of more than six persons. This rule does not exempt children under 12 in England, but it exempts children under 11 and 12 in Wales and Scotland respectively. The UK has also introduced COVID Marshals who are empowered to break up any group of more than six. Violators are liable to a fine of 100 pounds per member, and double fines for repeated offences up to 3, 200 pounds.  Neighbours are also required to report any suspected breaches to the authorities. What the UK has done is to remind the people that the troubles of COVID-19 are far from over; every one must take responsibility. We need similar measures here in Nigeria. We need COVID-19 Marshals. Gatherings should be restricted. People should be made to pay fines for failing to wear masks or observe social distancing. This is probably the only way to remind Nigerians that the war against COVID-19 has not yet been won. The COVID-19 Marshals can be volunteers who will liaise with the police and relevant authorities.  Now that the schools are re-opening and international flights have resumed, there is greater need for vigilance.  

One key thing government needs to deal with: the misconception that there is already a cure for COVID-19. The other day, a Professor, a man I respect a lot, told me that there is now in Nigerian markets a COVID-19 vaccine, which is approved for sale only in Africa. I told him this is not possible because the known fact is that there is no approved COVID-19 vaccine anywhere in the world yet. What we have is a global race for the vaccine with over 100 possible vaccines still undergoing various stages of clinical trials. He was adamant. He said he was sure of his information. He asked me not to listen to international politics about COVID-19. I was stunned.  I wanted to ask him to show me a picture of the said vaccine or provide more concrete evidence. I didn’t want to appear rude. I kept quiet. But if indeed some Nigerians are promoting a COVID-19 vaccine, unknown to the authorities, that would be very sad indeed. Even the smartest scientists in the world are still busy trying to understand the virus.  It could take years or months before they can record a breakthrough. Last week, AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company collaborating with researchers at the University of Oxford, had to suspend its drug trials when a volunteer who had taken a dose of the experimental vaccine reported severe side effects. The trials have now re-commenced after that deliberate pause. The gold standard in vaccine trials and authorization is safety. Nigeria must ensure that nobody smuggles fake COVID-19 vaccines or drugs into the country. Low-income, developing countries face multiple jeopardy in the face of COVID-19. The main leadership challenge is to protect the people from themselves.  

More than anything else, COVID-19, six months later, has exposed our vulnerabilities as a country and as a people. Nigerians have often paid lip service to the need to diversify the country’s economy away from over-dependence on petroleum resources which account for the bulk of the country’s revenue. With the distortions in global demand and supply, caused by COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions, and lower demand for crude, Nigeria suffered a revenue crisis. Pre-COVID, the country’s economy was weak. COVID worsened everything. Nigeria had to revise its 2020 budget twice. We also had to go a-borrowing, cap in hand. The country’s CPI (inflation) rose up to 12.82%. Unemployment figures shot through the roof. By Q3 2020, Nigeria will be in recession, a second time in 5 years. There are projections inflation could hit 14% plus by December 2020. There has been so much talk about recovery by 2022, but nobody is certain about the nature of that recovery: V, W, U, or L–shaped. 

Even with the best of intentions, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has not been able to save the Naira or resolve liquidity problems. The government has been very eloquent about what it can do for the people: palliatives, stimulus packages, economic sustainability programmes. intervention funds but official policies have been at best ambivalent. The recent removal of fuel subsidy, and the hike in electricity tariffs have both further eroded the average Nigerian’s purchasing power. Questions have therefore been raised about leadership and policy choices. Consider this:  In other parts of the world, governments have duly acknowledged in the face of the pandemic, the heroism of frontline healthcare workers and first responders. Here in Nigeria, amid COVID-19 pandemic, health workers have in the last six months declared industrial actions against states and the Federal Government. They are unhappy that government does not consider it necessary to pay them salary arrears and COVID-19 hazard allowance. Only two states- Nasarawa and Enugu-  have reportedly paid up to date. Last week, the National Association of Resident Doctors (NARD) went on strike. The doctors had to be mollified. This week, the Joint Health Workers Union of Nigeria (JOHESU) also embarked on strike over non-payment of COVID-19 allowances. Why pick fights with medical doctors and other frontline care providers in the middle of a global health crisis? Why downplay the crisis of hunger and poverty in the land? 

It is not all gloom though. ThisDay newspaper recently published a list of heroes and amazons of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The list includes institutions, private sector figures, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, medical practitioners, and others who have contributed in cash and in kind and worked hard to manage the spread of the virus. When all this is over, it would be necessary to also compile a list of COVID-19 villains. I am keeping notes.   

“So this is how we will just adjust to the new fuel price at the petrol stations, and government will get away with the imposition of greater hardship on the people?” 

“No. Government is very clear. The fuel subsidy regime is not sustainable. The PPMC, NNPC and the PPPRA made that clear in April. What they said was that the Federal Government can no longer pay subsidies on petrol and that prices will be determined by market forces. In any case, there is no provision for subsidy payments in the 2020 budget” 

“How about the billions that were paid in July? About N535. 9 billion” 

“That payment was for the backlog of subsidy before the Government announced a new policy. And Nigeria is not alone. In March, Saudi Aramco made a similar announcement. If you live in Saudi Arabia, you will buy petrol at market rates. In fact, by the 10^th of every month, Saudi Aramco announces new fuel prices.”   

“I beg. Spare me that. You people are always comparing apples and oranges. Suddenly so many people have become emergency economists. Market forces that have no human face. Selective market forces. Go and check the Saudi Arabia that you are quoting. What is the GDP or minimum wage there compared to Nigeria’s? What kind of leaders do they have? Are their refineries working or not? If our policy makers love market forces so much, so why are we not allowing market forces to determine the true value of the Naira? Why has the CBN not taken the bold step to unify the foreign exchange rates?” 

“You see this is the problem with our people. Nigerians like to talk from both sides of the mouth. You are criticizing the deregulation of the downstream sector, and the end of the subsidy regime, and yet you are saying the Naira should be allowed to find its own market value. If government does that, you will be one of the first to start protesting that the Naira was stronger in 2015, and that devaluation is punishing the people and businesses. I think we should just praise the government for its courage, and capacity to take bold decisions.”

“They have not done anything new. It is the timing that is bad. In 2012, the Jonathan administration did exactly the same thing. Offered the same explanations.  But you people went and set up camp in Ojota to ask for freedom from high fuel prices. And what did the Jonathan administration do. Exactly the same scenario. And yet it was an increase from N67 per litre to N97 per litre. When the price of crude oil dropped internationally, the government at the time then announced a downward review from N97 to N87. And yet you people went on to the streets. “Occupy Nigeria!” The Buhari government raised petrol price in 2016 from N87 to N145. Nobody protested. Today, we have jumped from N148 per litre to N161 per litre. If care is not taken by December we may hit N200 per litre. And yet nobody is in Ojota. Where are the Ojota democrats?”

“Nobody is stopping you from going to Ojota. You can also go there and organize your own protests. Just be ready for the consequences.”

“What I even find shocking is that Nigerians are now begging the Nigeria Labour Congress and the  Trade Union Congress and other unions to speak up”

“NLC and TUC have issued statements.”

“Which statements? Only yesterday, some Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) went to picket the NLC Secretariat in Abuja. They called on the NLC President to declare a nationwide protest.” 

“They could have been arrested. I hope they know that.  For disrupting the public order, for inciting organized labour against the government of the day and seeking to sabotage government.” 

“This is the thing about you APC sympathizers. Are you now looking for a government appointment?”

“That’s hate speech. This government has warned many times that people should avoid hate speech.”

“But in 2012, nobody talked about hate speech. The PDP government engaged stakeholders. The House of Representatives investigated the payment of petrol subsidies to petroleum marketers. Fraud was uncovered. The Federal Government set up its own probe and technical committees. The payments were reviewed. Suggestions were made as to what should be done. The refineries for example. If we get the refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna working at optimal capacity, we would increase local refining and we won’t have to import refined petrol from offshore refineries. We can create jobs here and put an end to the inefficiency of the NNPC, and break its needless monopoly.” 

“Forget it. Those refineries are better sold off as scrap. Did you not read the NNPC financial statements which indicated that those refineries lost over N423 billion in 2018, and over N50 billion in 5 months this year? Nothing will change.” 

“But how about the Dangote Refinery that will process 650, 000 barrels of crude per day? I understand the Bua Group is also setting up a refinery in partnership with the French conglomerate, Axens.”

“Yes, that will address the issue of more supply and create jobs. But the technology for setting up those refineries you talk about is not locally made. Even some levels of expertise would have to be procured from abroad. Dangote and Bua will also buy crude at international market rates. So local refining does not mean fuel will be necessarily cheaper. Simple economics. Market reality.” 

“Keep talking until people begin to die inside this your market of cruel forces. You people have increased VAT. You have increased electricity tariffs by over 100%. Inflation is 12.82%. Interest rate on savings is a miserable 1.25%. Prices of rice, beans, pepper and tomatoes have jumped up. A bag of rice that used to be N20, 000 is now N35, 000. Transport fares have increased. I hear even prostitutes and side chicks these days are also quoting market forces! They too are thinking of deregulating their market. Demand and supply.”  

“Well, these are unusual times. COVID-19 has distorted everything. Nigeria has a revenue problem and a debt problem. But I am sure everything will be fine because Nigerians trust this government. Every Nigerian should be prepared to make a sacrifice.” 

“Did you just talk about trust and sacrifice? And if I may ask: what sacrifice are Nigerian leaders making? Name one or two that you know.”

“Every conversation with you is always a wrestling match. I beg. Na you sabi. You can go to Ojota, if you like. I have said my own.” 

“There is no point. They won’t listen. By the way, are you going to Benin to vote in the Gubernatorial election on September 19?”

“No. I have no such plans. I ain’t going nowhere.” 

“You don’t want to go and support your brother?”

“Nope. I don’t want to be caught in any crossfire. The way those guys are going, I foresee serious outbreak of violence if not on election day, then may be after.”

“You know after the Oba of Benin summoned a peace meeting in the palace last week, I thought all the gladiators will sheathe their swords. In Oredo last weekend, I was surprised when the papers reported that Governor Obaseki threatened to bury Comrade Adams Oshiomhole politically on September 19. The PDP Campaign Council Chairman, Chief Dan Orbih also attacked Oshiomhole and accused him of having organized a fire incident in 2012 to hide the truth about the Primary Six Certificate that he claims he has. This election is a contest with Oshiomhole, Obaseki said. 

“They should leave Oshiomhole alone, I beg. He is not a candidate in the election. And all of them should know what it means to disobey the Oba of Benin. They could be tagged an enemy of the palace!”

“Meaning what? Is this the first time a Bini man will be tagged Oghion Oba? Leave that matter. These politicians don’t care. Wasn’t that how Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu went to Akure, Ondo State to announce at a rally on Saturday that the PDP in the state is dead? Or how did he put it, something about a corpse inside a coffin.”

“That’s just political talk. How can an opposition party that has a candidate in the election, duly recognized by the Electoral Commission be said to be dead? We’d know which party is alive and which one is dead on election day. Ondo is October 10, right?”

“Yes. But the politics in Ondo State is likely to be as hot what we are seeing in Edo State. I don’t know whether you watched the interview the Governor, Arakunrin Akeredolu had on Arise TV on Monday.” 

“Aketi?”

“Yes. He was firing from every cylinder in his system. He had very harsh words for Agboola Ajayi and former Governor Mimiko.” 

“Was he also talking about death?” 

“Well he said Mimiko is politically dead in Ondo State. He called him a spent force. But incidentally, the same day, some thugs stormed the Ondo State House of Assembly and took it over. That is not a good sign.”   

“Don’t worry. It is all politics. It will pass.” 

“I think we should worry about violence in politics and the rhetoric of hate. Especially now that Pastors are also beginning to sound and talk like the politicians, turning the pulpit into a bully arena. Any expression of intolerance should be monitored and checked.” 

“And who is the Pastor who is now sounding like a politician?”

“Have you not been following the news?  Have you not seen that trending video in which Pastor David Ibiyeomie of the Salvation Ministries abused and attacked the broadcaster, Daddy Freeze for criticizing Bishop David Oyedepo whom he calls his Daddy. He asked: who is his father?”  

“Pastor Ibiyeomie must have been listening to DJ Cuppy’s music… Oh Gelato!...Who is your Daddy?..”

“Except that Pastor was not joking. He called Daddy Freeze a bastard. He cursed the day he was born and threatened that if he ever dared to disrespect his own Daddy, his Papa in the Lord, Bishop Oyedepo again, he will die”

“I thought that was too much. It was so distasteful, the way the Pastor went on and on. What did Daddy Freeze do? He merely expressed an opinion. He disagreed with Bishop Oyedepo’s advice that women should be totally submissive to their husbands. (Ephesians 5: 22). There are others who responded in the same fashion and quoted other sections of the Bible. Women wrote on twitter that a couple should both be submissive to one another. After all, the Bible asks men to also love their wives as Christ loved the church. (Ephesians 5: 25)” 

“Bishop Ibiyeomie apparently thinks that is blasphemy. He thinks, a Daddy Freeze, a broadcaster, should not disagree with a Prophet of the Lord. For his effrontery, he is now being threatened with a death sentence. Touch not my anointed. Daddy Freeze touched the anointed. He should report Pastor Ibiyeomie to the Inspector-General and ask for protection.”

“Really, so what is the difference between what Pastor Ibiyeomie has done and the death sentence passed on the musician in Kano State, I mean Yahaya Sharif-Aminu? I understand some people are even saying Aminu cannot be defended on appeal by a Muslim lawyer. It is the same thing.”

“Did you listen to that part where the pastor even said “broadcaster… he doesn’t even have a good job”   

“I laughed… Broadcasting is not a good job, the gospel according to Pastor Ibiyeomie! I think he owes all broadcasters an apology. How can he just dismiss a noble profession like that?” 

“But the truth is that Pastor Ibiyeomie is himself a broadcaster. He probably doesn’t realize it. I used to attend the Salvation Ministries in Abuja. The main sermon from Port Harcourt, with Pastor Ibiyeomie ministering was delivered through a broadcast channel. I just hope the Pastor is not going to turn around and claim that this particular video has been doctored, and does not truly reflect what he said. I just hope so.” 

“Men of God should not use the pulpit to sound like politicians or play God. Pa-si-tor, ewo n ti epe?”

“If you are the owner of the pulpit, I guess you can pretty much say what you like. The real problem are the members of the Congregation. People get so carried away, they don’t critically analyze what their Pastors say. They allow themselves to be held spell-bound.  Did you not notice when the pastor said: “I curse the day you were born!”, how the congregation chorused in approval?” 

“I was shocked. But this is probably why a law like the Companies and Allied Matters Act 2020, Section 839 (1), (2) is important. A part of it talks about public interest. It is certainly not in the interest of the public for religious leaders to turn their pulpits into a platform for intimidation, defamation, and harassment.”

“What are you suggesting?” 

“The law speaks for itself and there are circumstances that may justify it, despite the objections of some people.”

“Please, please, p-lease. I don’t want to get into that conversation with you. I don’t want any Pastor to turn me into a target. I was born on a truly blessed day… Only God knows what some of these Pastors have on their tongues.” 

“You are a coward.” 

“Yes. I accept. I beg.” 

“You should be like Daddy Freeze.”

“I am my own person. Thanks.”    

The renewed interest in the crisis that continues to rock Southern Kaduna would be helpful if it produces a genuine effort at resolving the problem and ensuring lasting peace in that part of the country that remains troubled, divided and to all intents and purposes, a killing field. It was reported that between July 21 and July 24, about 43 persons were killed across communities in Southern Kaduna, and over a period of seven months, about 178 persons lost their lives. What makes the situation tragic is that the killers often served notice of the impending attacks and carried out their threats, for hours on end in many cases, unhindered, unchecked, unrestrained.  Even when the state government imposed a 24-hour curfew, the killings still continued. Homes were often burnt down. Women were raped. Innocent children were caught in the cross-fire. Farmlands were razed to the ground resulting in economic hardship. The Southern Kaduna question is an open-ended story of a people’s unending search for peace. The area known as Southern Kaduna is both a geographical and political category, but the context of the perpetual crisis is rooted in history.  It is the story of a people, living together for more than a century and yet unable to find accommodation as a result of historical rivalries, politics of ownership, identity, ethnicity, economy and religion. What we are dealing with basically is autochthony: politics of origin, identity and space, linked with a crisis of belonging that serves as a catalyst for conflict and violence. Conflicts are not an African creation; they are a global phenomenon. But what matters is how each country addresses its ontological uncertainties through the application of peace-building, conflict-resolution, as well as vertical and horizontal, inter-communal, integration mechanisms. 

During the colonial era, the area known as Southern Kaduna was part of the Zaria Province. It was not just home to over 30 ethnic nationalities, the people were predominantly non-Muslims, but with the seat of power in Zazzau (as Zaria was formerly known), it meant that the various ethnic nationalities: Atyap, Adara, Agbiri, Kagoma etc. found themselves under the control of the Hausa-Fulani, the majority group in the Northern part of the province. Over the years, the Hausa-Fulani hegemony established an emirate system to which the indigenous people of Southern Kaduna paid taxes, and to whose rules and directives they were subjected. Non-Muslims were marginalized, forced into hard labour and expected to convert to Islam. Their lands also provided good grazing fields for Hausa-Fulani herders. The British authorities conveniently took advantage of this situation, but the marginalized people of the South, who now had the Hausa-Fulani living among them and occupying a higher rung of the social ladder, and gradually taking control of space, began to resent the new reality. When missionaries began to arrive in the area in larger numbers, the indigenous people embraced Christianity with great fervor, a kind of revolt against the Emirate system which they had come to view suspiciously as a symbol of oppression. 

In May 1946, the Atyap of Zangon-Kataf rebelled when the Emir increased taxes. They also began to agitate for control over their own affairs. In 1967, they got their own District Head. Like the Atyaps, the other indigenous ethnic nationalities also resisted the dominance of the Hausa-Fulani. A major source of conflict has been ownership of farmlands and the right of access to land. The Hausa-Fulani in Southern Kaduna, over the years also enjoyed better patronage from the colonial and post-colonial authorities at regional and federal levels. With regard to land, the indigenous people never accepted the argument by the Muslim Hausa-Fulani that “Everything belongs to Allah. Every piece of land belongs to Allah and not you, it is not for you infidels but for Allah” that is “Komai na Allah ne. Ko wane fili na Allah ne ba naku ba, ba na kafirai ba, na Allah ne.” This definition of real property by Muslim members of the community did not appeal to the Christians. Africans generally have a fanatical attachment to land, the reason the possession of it or the outright ownership of it is a potent source of conflict across the continent. In Kasuwan-Magani (1980) and Gure-Kahugu (1984), conflict arose over land. 

There is an existing rich literature on the various causes of conflict in Southern Kaduna, but central to it all is the politics of division, them vs. us, your own vs my own, that has kept the people divided. Oftentimes, the main cause of the conflict is an attempt by one group to dominate the other or resist the other. In 1987, the Kafanchan riots began in a College of Education and the main problem was religion. The riot in the Zangon Kataf area in 1992 was all about disagreements over the location of a market. In May 2000, the riots spread from Southern Kaduna to other parts of Kaduna State. In virtually every incident, religion is always a major issue as seen in 2011, 2015, 2016, 2019, and now in 2020, and as further evidenced by the number of churches that are burnt and Christian leaders that are killed. It has been argued that the Hausa-Fulani seem to have an upper hand in the various conflicts because  they receive the support of herdsmen from across the Sahel, Niger, Mali, Chad and other places, who at certain seasons migrate to Nigeria to graze cattle. It is more of the truth however that the Southern Kaduna narrative is complex. Like the British colonialists, modern-day politicians – first the military and later civilians have exploited the situation for their own narrow gains. Intellectual hegemons on both sides of the divide have authorized sectional and jaundiced narratives to protect their people’s interests. Muslims insist for example that they have also been victims in the hands of non-Muslims, and that no one should complain about revenge killings. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), and the Pentecostal Bishops Forum of Northern Nigeria insist that the attack on Christians in Southern Kaduna amounts to a violation of the right of Christians to enjoy the freedoms of belief and association, and that the Nigerian state is complicit in this regard. Ethnic nationalists protest about what they classify as genocide or ethnic cleansing in Southern Kaduna. In the wake of the last round of killings in the area, the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria declared a period of mourning and prayers from August 22 – September 30, 2020.   Christian stakeholders have petitioned the United Nations Human Rights Council, the UK Parliament and the US Congress. 

What seems certain perhaps is the fact that there are no saints in the killing fields of Southern Kaduna. It will be recalled that the 1987 Kafanchan riots began when a Christian group decided to put up a provocative banner: “Welcome to Jesus Campus” at the Kafanchan College of Education! The Southern Kaduna question is, as I see it, a reflection of the national question as much as it is a dimension of the dilemma of “religion, politics and power in Northern Nigeria”. It further speaks to the crisis of state failure and capture. Successive administrations have set up panels of inquiry on killings in Southern Kaduna. White Papers have been issued and despite the fact that the trend remains the same, the various recommendations are never implemented. Political leaders take sides in the conflict, thus failing to show leadership. They make inflammatory statements which embolden the criminals they claim are behind the killings. When the night raids occur, the security agencies usually fail to show up, and when they do, great havoc would have been committed, with tragic consequences. Those who lost their loved ones and property in fact allege that security agents openly encourage and assist the bandits. The effect is that many communities in Southern Kaduna are now contemplating taking up arms to defend themselves. 

The reign of impunity and the failure of the state to act, when replaced by a resort to self-help, is a prescription for anomie.  The people of Southern Kaduna, particularly the Christian communities are losing interest in the Nigerian state. They see their present travails as a re-enactment of the oppression, marginalization and abuse that they suffered under the old Emirate system. The international community has expressed concern about the human rights implications of the insecurity in various parts of the country.  Many families have been displaced across the North. The Internally Displaced Persons camps are over-stretched. The Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU), the umbrella body of the people of Southern Kaduna, has received great support and solidarity from other ethnic groups in the country including the Pan-Niger Delta Forum, the Southern and Middle Belt Forum, Ohanaeze, and the Afenifere, with each group stressing the national implications of the reign of violence in different parts of the country. 

The incumbent Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai has been blamed by some critics for mismanaging the crisis in the Southern part of the state he governs. As we have seen, he has a lot more to do. He is dealing with a century-old problem, fed by memory, mutual unwillingness to embrace peace, ego, class, religion, and ethnicity.  Following the latest round of conflicts, Governor Nasir el-Rufai summoned a State Security Council meeting and has also met with a delegation of the Christian Association of Nigeria. He has expressed his government’s willingness to work together with the security agencies to ensure peace in Southern Kaduna. Other Governors before him made similar promises.  He has also asked the leaders and the people of the area to make up their minds to live together in peace, and seek to resolve their differences through lawful means. As Governor, he must take the lead in that regard. In 2016, he offered compensation to members of the Hausa-Fulani community who lost property in a similar incident. He must take steps to also assist non-Muslims. How many churches, or markets is the Governor willing to help rebuild? How much compensation would the state offer those who lost their farmlands and other properties?  The people do not trust the state government. Concrete steps should be taken to gain their trust. 

As if in response to the Governor’s call for unity, however, a Peace Summit was held the other day by Atyap, and Hausa-Fulani communities in Zangon-Kataf Local Government where the community leaders agreed to end hostilities. They agreed to set up a Standing Peace Committee. They also signed a 14-point resolution. It is not often that Muslims and Christians in Southern Kaduna sit together at a round-table for peace talks, so that is a welcome development. A similar meeting should be held in every local government in the region. The ordinary people: the farmers, the herdsmen and others should be part of that conversation. The major problem we often have in our communities is the lack of vertical integration. The elites are so high up, so class conscious. Even when they claim to be representing the people’s interests, the people believe that they are just representing themselves or the class that they belong to. Most of our so-called Nigerian big men are so alienated from the people, they have no idea what the people want. To build peace, there must be trust. To build trust, there must be a meeting of minds. The people who are targeted for attacks are not necessarily the men in high places who collect sitting allowances even when they attend Peace Summits, they are the farmers on whose farmland a herdsman grazes his cattle and destroys the crops, they are the market women who are raped, the young men and women who are abused. They must have a voice in this conversation.     

One other latest development in this connection is the statement made about the Southern Kaduna situation by the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo at the 60^th Annual General Conference of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA). It was good to hear from the Vice President. The Presidency has so far been too bureaucratic and academic about the security situation in the country. But Professor Osinbajo spoke from the heart. He apologized to the people of Southern Kaduna and empathized with them. He pointed out that as far back as 2001, he had been involved in the peace-building process in Kaduna State through the Macedonia Initiative, a Non-Governmental Organization. He disclosed that the Federal Government is setting up a military base in Southern Kaduna. A combined team from the Army and the Navy has also been deployed to check the reign of impunity in the affected areas. “We won’t sweep underlying issues under the carpet”, he promised. 

It is good to hear someone so high up refer to the underlying issues at the centre of the Southern Kaduna crisis. Those underlying issues are hydra-headed as the drift of this commentary, should by now indicate, but one major issue is the deployment of security personnel. Many of these security agents have become part of the problem because they identify with camps in the conflict. No bandit has ever been prosecuted for causing mayhem in Southern Kaduna because the security agent who has been deployed to apprehend, or stop him, identifies with him and his ideology. What is the point in sending a Hausa-Fulani Muslim soldier or policeman to arrest a Hausa-Fulani bandit? That is one underlying issue that needs to be addressed. The Nigerian State, by its own omissions, promotes impunity. The Southern Kaduna is not a peculiar problem that is beyond human solution. Nigerian leaders should focus on the structural basis of ethnic conflicts and the stress factors associated with internal colonialism under a democratic dispensation. Why should anyone ever feel like the other, the outsider, the marginalized in their own space under a democratic dispensation? Lessons can be learnt from disputes in other parts of Nigeria: Ijaw-Itsekiri in Delta State, Nupe-Yoruba in Kwara, Ife-Modakeke in Osun, Jukun-Tiv conflicts in Benue/Taraba States and the many recommendations of various panels of inquiry on Southern Kaduna which no one has ever bothered to implement. 

I admire Nasir el-Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State for his intellectual abilities and what he has been able to achieve within the public space, but I am not his fan.  I have had two rather disturbing encounters with him. The first I would overlook because at the time, I thought he spoke out of plain honesty. But there was a second encounter that I have never been able to get out of my mind. Sometime in 2013, I had taken permission from President Goodluck Jonathan to stay back in London for a few days to sort out some personal matters. The request was granted. The Presidential delegation returned to Abuja without me. A few days later on my way back home, aboard British Airways, guess who I ran into as I tried to settle down: Nasir el-Rufai.  I was so excited to see him. He had just then published his impressive memoir: The Accidental Public Servant (Safari Books, 2013, 627pp.) I rushed to meet him and enthusiastically told him that I had read his book and that I was impressed. I congratulated him. He was busy putting his hand luggage in the overhead compartment. As soon as he was done with that, he turned towards me and bellowed: 

“Abati, you are calling us yesterday’s men eh? Very soon, you too will be a yesterday man. When we become today’s people, we will show you what it means to be a yesterday man!”. 

He didn’t respond to my compliments about his book. The scowl on his face was enough to frighten a lion. I was so confounded, I simply walked back to my seat. I kept to my lane throughout the trip. I was Nigeria’s Presidential spokesman at the time. Indeed, I had written a piece titled “The Hypocrisy of Yesterday’s Men” (February 3, 2013). I wrote in defence of my boss: “A loosely bound group of yesterday’s men and women seems to be on the offensive against the Jonathan administration.  They pick issues with virtually every effort of the administration, pretending to do so in the public interest; positing that they alone, know it all. Arrogantly, they claim to be better and smarter than everyone else in the current government. They are ever so censorious, contrarian and supercilious. They have no original claim to their pretensions other than that they were privileged to have been in the corridors of power once upon a time in their lives. They obviously got so engrossed with their own sense of importance they began to imagine themselves indispensable to Nigeria. It is dangerous to have such a navel-gazing, narcissistic group inflict themselves with so much ferocity on an otherwise impressionable public. We are in reality dealing with a bunch of hypocrites.” 

I went further: “With exceptions so few, they really don’t care about Nigeria as a sovereign but the political spoils that accrue from it.  And so they will stop at nothing to discredit those they think are not as deserving as they imagine themselves to be. President Jonathan has unfairly become the target of their pitiable frustrations. They mask self-interest motives as public causes and manipulate the public’s desire for improvements in their daily struggles as opportunity for power grab…”  I didn’t mention anyone directly. But I recall Femi Fani-Kayode, my friend, brother and associate, long before the Jonathan years, was the only other person who attacked me around the period. I had made another comment and Fani-Kayode promptly retorted that Reuben Abati could only have said whatever he said because he was the product of a same-sex marriage. 

The same Femi Fani-Kayode would later realize his own hypocrisy. He eventually abandoned the company of hypocrites and aligned with the Jonathan government. He in fact led Presidential Jonathan’s second-term campaign as strategist and campaign spokesperson. Nasir el-Rufai was one of those who never took the Road to Damascus. In my 2013 essay, I did not mention his name. I gave examples including that of some Quantity Surveyors who needed to return to their professions and desist from turning Nigeria, after a spell in public office, into a meal ticket. Nasir el-Rufai is a Quantity Surveyor. He obviously assumed that the innuendo was directed at him. He took it personal. But on the spur of the moment, I couldn’t think up a justification for his attitude towards me. His arrogance. His malicious conduct. I have a big ego myself. But Nasir el-Rufai’s ego is taller than the tallest building in the world. He has had a brilliant public career, and he is one of our brightest, but his public persona is that he is completely undiplomatic. There is nobody he cannot abuse. There is no harsh phrase that he cannot utter. His critics insist that he respects nobody, fears nobody, and yet everyone wonders what feeds his ego. What is it based on? In his days as Minister of the Federal Territory, he demolished people’s houses at will. He fought the National Assembly. I will rate him as the best Minster of the FCT so far though, even if he went about his job in a very tactless manner. 

As Governor of Kaduna State, he has also shown the same lack of tact and diplomacy. We are dealing with hubris it seems. In his public career since President Olusegun Obasanjo discovered him in 1999 and brought him aboard Nigeria’s big stage, Nasir el-Rufai has consistently acquired a public persona as an intolerant public servant, and a perpetual accident. In Kaduna state which he presides over, anybody that criticizes him in any way, is most likely to be slammed with a legal suit and detained. He has fought Shiites. He has abused the leaders of Southern Kaduna. He is said to be above the courts of the land because he does not respect their orders. One Bishop had the temerity to prophesy that he, El-Rufai will never be President of Nigeria, the Bishop is now in court to respond to charges of criminal defamation for daring to prophesy that the Almighty Nasir El-Rufai will never be “President of Nigeria”.

This piece is titled “NBA vs Nasir el-Rufai”. My simple point in that regard which is the main thrust of this piece is that Nasir el-Rufai is in part, the victim of his own hubris. He has lessons to learn from his current travails and I hope that he will soon be on the Road to Damascus.  But at the same time, I think the joke is on the NBA, not el-Rufai. Paul Usoro, the outgoing President of the Nigerian Bar Association has handled the el-Rufai matter in a most embarrassing, cowardly and disgraceful manner. Nasir el-Rufai was invited by the Technical Conference Planning Committee (TCCP) of the NBA as a keynote Speaker at the Annual General Conference of the NBA 2020. The theme is “STEPPING FORWARD” and the question is: “Who is a Nigerian? A Debate on National Identity” (26 -29 August 2020) with a special session focusing on the topic: “Am I a Nigerian – A Debate on National Identity, The Indigeneship-Citizenship Conundrum”. It is a virtual conference, the first in the history of the NBA, in other words, a COVID-19 determined and compliant conference of the NBA, and the 60^th Annual General Conference of the body.  

When the Technical Committee for Conference Planning (TCCP) of the NBA decided to invite Nasir el-Rufai as a keynote speaker at this particular session, they must have thought of the fact that more than any other Governor in Nigeria at the moment, he is one Governor who has had to deal with the issue of identity crisis, especially in the Southern part of the state that he governs. Besides, he has the intellectual heft, the analytic skills and the knowledge of the national question being addressed. His ability in these regards is beyond question and he has the confidence to articulate his views in any forum locally and internationally. The Presidential Conference Planning Committee could not have made a better choice. You may not like el-Rufai’s attitude and his lack of tact, but you cannot question his ability as a diligent and first-rate intellect. By uninviting him to the 60^th NBA 60^thGeneral Conference, the NBA submitted itself to the will of an aggressive and vocal minority in a manner that could affect the future of the NBA negatively. Most of the people who signed the petition against Nasir el-Rufai come across like persons who nurse personal grudges against him and who failed to look at the big picture. The NBA as A.U. Mustapha, SAN has argued convincingly, should not be politicized. It must not be personalized. It must not be used to settle political, ethnic or personal scores. The decision to uninvite Nasir el-Rufai to this year’s NBA conference which commences tomorrow is a major low in the history of the NBA. Targeting one man out of a long list of other persons who have been identified by the Radical Agenda Movement led by Ogunlana Esq. as not necessarily saintly amounts to partiality and institutional malice. 

Paul Usoro, the outgoing NBA President has also not handled the matter with wisdom. He has presided over the NBA in one of its lowest moments in the last 60 years. The decision to open up the NBA Annual Conference to non-lawyers and stakeholder communities is one of the major achievements of the last few years, but in a last moment act of indiscretion, Usoro’s NBA has blown that up. The scapegoating of el-Rufai by a group that has had more despicable persons on its list of invitees over the years is an indication of unfairness, injustice and malice by the same persons who claim to defend the rule of law.  The NBA should be an open forum for all ideas to contend and for all persons to enjoy the benefit of fair hearing. With the NBA vs el-Rufai saga, may be the NBA is better off in the future inviting only persons who will tell members what they would like to hear. Even worse and this should be condemned, is the spineless, cheap and pathetic letters of apology written to the Muslim Lawyers Association of Nigeria (MULAN) and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum by Paul Usoro, the NBA President. These were self-serving letters in which Usoro tried to disown the NBA NEC. What kind of cowardly conduct is that? His silly apologies have brought the Usoro Presidency to an ugly end. Coming shortly after he presided over a most controversial NBA Presidential election and a lackluster tenure, Usoro by August 27 will be handing over a divided and troubled NBA. Nasir el-Rufai is not the problem of the NBA. The NBA, turned into a rent-seeking vehicle, is its own problem, and it is sad to see a once dynamic and progressive NBA, reduced to a beggarly body. Was it not under Usoro’s watch that a Chief Justice was disgraced out of office and judges were humiliated? The association faces a leadership crisis that it must resolve and address, especially now that there is a simmering battle between the inner and outer Bar for its soul. 

It is not too late to reverse the dis-invitation of Nasir el-Rufai to the 60^th NBA AGC.  But he can take sufficient solace in the fact that he is not the problem. His travail with the NBA is only an indication of a problem within the NBA itself. Olumide Akpata’s emergence as NBA President is seen as the triumph of the young Turks within the NBA, that is the Outer Bar. Nasir el-Rufai is just a convenient pawn in an existing conflict. We should, therefore, look farther into the future. Olumide Akpata who by next week would have assumed office, has his job cut out for him. He has to unite a divided House. He must also restore confidence in the Bar. He will either take charge or cede control to a vocal, aluta continua group within the NBA that has shown its hands rather early with the objection to Nasir el-Rufai. The radical elements within the NBA must focus on larger issues beyond the politics of malice and personality. The NBA  is in urgent need of reform. 

I got a call about a week ago informing me that it was the birthday of Herbert Wigwe, the CEO of Access Bank and it would be nice to drink up on his behalf, thank the Almighty and shame the Devil as it were. Since the easing of the lockdown, boys have been looking for every opportunity to return to the old normal. I declined. I resist temptations to defy COVID-19; for, even more careful persons have fallen victim. 

In normal times, I would have jumped at an opportunity to celebrate Herbert Wigwe who is certainly one of the biggest revelations in Nigeria’s banking industry in this century. When he took over the leadership of Access Bank, the Bank was no. 5. Today, that bank is No. 1 in terms of share capital, loans, deposits, reach and customer satisfaction. In April 2019, under Wigwe’s watch, Access Bank merged with Diamond Bank and became the largest bank in Africa. Wigwe has shown a capacity to control and transform every storm that comes the way of the bank. There is no doubt that he is leading Access bank in the right direction. He and his brother, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, both co-founders of Access Bank, remind me of Fola Adeola and Tayo Aderinokun who both built GT Bank into a global brand. 

At a time when Nigeria’s reputation is being rubbished by the likes of Hushpuppy and Woodberry and the 419 gang, Herbert Wigwe and his team give Nigeria great hopes. He is a role model for the younger generation. Today, Access Bank is not just a Tier-I Bank, it has branches across Africa which provide jobs for millions across the continent. And yet Wigwe is just 54. He is in addition, Chairman of Nigeria’s Bankers’ Committee. A high-achieving brother like him truly deserves a drink and a salute. The organisers should please invite me next year when, hopefully, our lives would have become normal again. In the meantime, many happy returns Herbert. May your days be long.   

“Sorry about your man”

“Thank you”

“You know I used to think that this COVID-19 thing is a kind of scientific joke, but now I am beginning to take it seriously.” 

“How can you say that? It is people like you who mislead the public. I hope you have not been listening to those Pastors who tell people that COVID-19 is not real. I urge you not to commit suicide by exposing yourself unnecessarily. Are you aware that as at this moment the death toll worldwide is close to one million? And that over 21 million persons have been infected? You call that a joke?”

“But I hear it affects only some kind of people, the rich in particular. Big men.” 

“No. You only get to hear about the death of big men. You know that Shakespearean quote: “When beggars die there are no comets seen;/The heavens themselves blaze forth the death of princes” . Thousands of poor people are probably dying every week in Nigeria as a result of COVID 19. But nobody knows. Nobody will report their death in the news because nobody knows them. In any case, the poor have their own explanation. They don’t quite believe that there is anything called COVID-19. Just like you. They often attribute every death to witches and wizards.”  

“Are you saying witches and wizards cannot use COVID-19 as a weapon of destruction?”

“In your mind. I’d rather stay with science. Superstition and ignorance are the twin threats to the war against COVID-19 in Africa. While the rest of the world is mobilizing scientists, laboratories and resources to find a cure to the disease, Africans are talking about prayers and witchcraft.”

“But I hear that even scientists are saying that the virus doesn’t quite affect some people, due to previous exposure to a virus within the COVID family, or even common cold. Such persons develop natural antibodies in their T-Cells which protect them against the disease. I am actually quoting a report recently published in the Science Journal by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases led by Dr. Anthony Fauci, America’s top expert on infectious diseases.”

“The truth about this disease is that nothing is certain yet. What I have heard is that the virus is constantly mutating and that a new strain has now been discovered in Asia which is likely to be more lethal than the current one. It is called G614.”  

 “I forbid that in Jesus name.” 

“What are you forbidding? Just be careful.” 

“By the way, what do you think of the latest development in Bayelsa State? The Governor’s election has been nullified by the Election Petition Tribunal. What do you think will happen?”

“Governor Douye Diri himself has indicated what will happen. He says his lawyers have been briefed to go to the Court of Appeal and that he is determined to go all the way to the Supreme Court. That is the best option available to him.  A man who became Governor through the instrumentality of the law cannot be seen embracing any option other than the rule of law.”

“Poor fellow. It is as if some people just don’t want him in that position.  Four different petitions were filed against him at the Tribunal by four political parties: the Alliance for Democracy (AD) the United People’s Congress (UPC), the Liberation Movement (LM) and the Advanced Nigeria Democratic Party (ANDP). The petitions by the AD, UPC and LM were dismissed for lack of merit last weekend. But now a few days later, the ANDP petition has been upheld by the Tribunal.  But should Douye Diri lose his seat because of a mistake that was committed by INEC?  Diri was not the person who omitted the name and logo of the ANDP from the ballot box. INEC did that. Is it then right to cancel the election and order a re-run within 90 days on account of that?” 

“Yes. Absolutely. The Tribunal is correct. The ruling draws attention to a fundamental point about the validity of the Gubernatorial election conducted in Bayelsa state on November 16, 2019. The exclusion of the ANDP raises issues of validity.”

“But do you think Diri will win at the Court of Appeal?”

“I don’t know. We should just wait and see.”

“So, if there is a re-run of the Gubernatorial election, will the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, David Lyon now be on the ballot too. After all, he won the election originally until his Deputy brought bad luck to the ticket and the Court nullified David Lyon’s victory.” 

“No. The APC cannot participate in the re-run election. The Lyon-Degi-Eremienyo ticket was declared invalid by the court. It remains so. But I foresee a lot of re-alignments. Even without a candidate in the election, the APC is not likely to fold its hands. The party can align with one of the other political parties, put up a proxy candidate on that other platform and give the PDP a serious fight. The APC will certainly see this as an opportunity to take Bayelsa back. Once their proxy candidate wins, the deed is done. One or two months later, the new Governor will simply jump ship and join the APC. Simple.” 

“It is that simple? I don’t think so” 

“Not quite simple but it is all a matter of political strategy. Strategy matters.”

“Douye Diri will be foolish to allow the APC dislodge him with that kind of strategy. In fact, he should never have allowed the matter to get to this stage. He should have negotiated with the ANDP. Pay them off. In some states in the last election, there were some other political parties who were wrongfully excluded from the ballot sheet. The party that won at the end of the day negotiated with them and nobody went to court to challenge anything.”

“Where did that happen?” 

“Ask me again. Is it me you want to put into trouble? Are you not aware that if you say anything these days, you could be invited for a chat with the Department of State Services (DSS)?”

“You just like to talk. You lack courage.”

“Thank you”

“Okay, just whisper it to me. I won’t tell anybody.”  

“Do I look like a child to you? I am just giving you an idea of how politicians behave. But one thing is certain, in Bayelsa, there will be re-alignments. We saw it happen in Imo State in 2007. That was how Chief Ikedi Ohakim of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) emerged victorious in that election. Chief Ohakim subsequently switched to the PDP, which decided to abandon its own candidate, Senator Ifeanyi Ararume and chose to campaign for Ohakim based on agreements. Ararume had taken the PDP to court. He was expelled by the party and taught a lesson.”  

“Politicians. But it doesn’t look like we will witness the kind of tension we are now seeing in Edo State in Bayelsa state, whatever happens.”

“Let’s wait and see. You can never predict politicians, although I must say that what is going on in Edo State is something else. I am just worried about the people of Edo State. The politicians are not talking about what the people want. They are more interested in their own squabbles and ambition.” 

“I will be surprised if there is no outbreak of violence in Edo State on election Day, September 19 and after, followed by post-election conflict.” 

“The security agencies have their job cut out for them. If there is any breakdown of law and order in Edo State, we must hold the Nigeria police responsible, because the situation is foreseeable. Even the electoral commission INEC, has warned about the threat of violence in Edo State.”  

“INEC should play its own part too. Otherwise, the next thing we will hear is that due to so, so and so, the Gubernatorial election in Edo State has been declared inconclusive!”

“INEC has got to do what it has to do. If the politicians in Edo State do not want that to happen, then they should conduct themselves in a peaceful manner.” 

“You know an idea just occurred to me.  You know the Oba of Benin in Council can actually help ensure electoral peace in Edo State.”

“The Oba already met with leaders of the political parties. He has appealed to them to give peace a chance. But you know the Oba of Benin cannot openly take sides. He is the father of all.” 

“I know. I know. But you think these politicians will listen?”

“So what should the Oba of Benin do then?”

“Simple. You will recall a time when there was a sharp rise in human trafficking and crime in Benin City. The Oba directed the palace priests to bring out all the traditional missiles of Benin City, some of which had not been brought out in the sun for about 800 years. Clad in flaming red, the priests, native doctors and metaphysicians gathered at the palace, with the Oba in attendance and placed a curse on anyone committing crime, promoting human trafficking and disturbing the Edo Kingdom. The strategy worked. Crime rate went down immediately. Human traffickers went on holiday.  Every body just hailed the King: “Oba gha to kpe e” and behaved themselves. I understand the people of Edo believe in the efficacy of curses. So, what the palace needs to do this time is to adopt the same strategy. Place a curse on anybody that tries to sabotage the Gubernatorial election in that state on September 19. You’d be surprised these politicians will not risk the outcome of ancestral curses. And nobody will allow his or her child to act as an agent of violence.” 

“You and your primitive ideas. Where have you ever heard of any such thing? Such an idea is unknown to the democratic process.” 

“It is not everything that you can subject to textbook ideas, my friend. What I am suggesting is a kind of home-grown democracy. Democracy in Africa does not have to be an exact replica of how democracy works in America. My suggestion will work if taken. I probably won’t recommend the same approach in another state, but in Edo State, it is the best way to ensure peace and protect the people.” 

“I see you have not been going to church for a while. But now that the churches have re-opened, you need to seek salvation and confess your sins.” 

“I am not going to church for now. I want to wait till we actually know where we are going with COVID-19”

“I thought you were once a Trustee of your church.”

“Oh, no. Not any more. And in any case, Church Trustees are now in trouble. In the new Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020, it is expressly stated that the Supervising Minister and Registrar General of the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) will regulate religious bodies and charity organizations. In addition, they can suspend the Trustees of an association or a religious body.” 

“Government is looking for trouble. The churches will protest.”

“One of the General Overseers, Daddy Oyedepo, has in fact started the protest. He says no government can regulate his Church or appoint trustees for him. One of these days, I won’t be surprised if churches are asked to start paying tax, or that a General Overseer cannot also serve as Lead Pastor in the church. In other words, you can’t be Chairman of the Church and also be the CEO, while your wife is the Treasurer.”

“That provision applies only to public companies, not non-profit organizations like churches.”

“Who told you a church is not-for-profit? Some churches in this country are richer than many banks!”

“Just be careful. You are toying with blasphemy.”  

“I know what I am talking about. Some church leaders even have private jets.”

“Well, now that international flights will be allowed, the Pastors can now start enjoying their private jets again.” 

“International flights have resumed? When?”

Not yet. On August 29, according to the Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika”

“Do you think we are ready? International flights to where and from where? Definitely not to or from the United States, China, France, India, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina or any country that is a high-risk COVID-19 hotspot.”

“The Minister certainly needs to give more information. As for me and my humble household, no international travel till 2022.”  

Then let them laugh and rejoice in our man’s ill-luck.

Alive perhaps they felt no need of him, but now that he

Is dead, they will grieve their lack in the demands of war.

For foolish men do not appreciate the noble prize

they have, until it is discarded from their hands.

His death pains me and falsely pleasures them, 

for him it is a pure delight. For he has gained all that 

he wanted for himself and that was simply death.

Why then should they exult in overbearing mockery? 

He died at the hands of god. They had no part in it. 

And let Odysseus gloat at this along with them. 

For Ajax is no more for them- for me his loss

Bequeaths a legacy of pain and lament. 

-               Teucer in Ajax by Sophocles (442 BC)

Buruji Kashamu, Nigerian politician, entrepreneur, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and a controversial public figure, has gone the way of all mortals- one of the high-profile victims of the global scourge called COVID-19 -  which has effectively turned the year 2020 into “annus horribilis”. No man is completely good, nor is any man completely bad, all mortals are archetypes of the very incompleteness of Creation itself.  But if anything must be said of Buruji Kashamu whose last remains were buried in his home town of Ijebu-Igbo, Ogun State, on Sunday, August 9, it is that he was deeply loved by the common people whose aspirations he championed and who benefited greatly from his benevolence. It was not for nothing that Kashamu was known as “Alanu Mekunnu”. He was more comfortable identifying with the poor, despite his stupendous wealth. He was in his lifetime one of the most prominent Ijebus of the first quarter of the 21^st Century. 

I recall that each time he entered Ijebu Ode from Lagos, motorcyclists (that is Okada riders) would form a convoy – that convoy could be as long as a durbar/calvacade of 100 motorcycles, hailing him, and they would lead him all the way from Ijebu Ode to his home town, Ijebu Igbo, about 20 minutes away. The first time I witnessed that spontaneous reaction to his presence by ordinary people trying to earn their own living, I was shocked. In the course of his public career, Kashamu had gained a reputation as a friend of the ordinary people, not just in Ijebuland, but across Yorubaland and by extension, other parts of Nigeria. He had established a group known as the Omo Ilu Foundation through which he provided support for the poor. These include(d) indigent students whose school fees he paid, the sick whose hospital bills he picked up, struggling petty traders for whom he rented shops and paid house rent. He donated vehicles to many and provided shelter. He sponsored community development projects. With the Omo Ilu Foundation, he also managed to build a vast, grassroots political network, across the South West. 

The headquarters of the Foundation in Ijebu Igbo sits on acres of land, and if Buruji called a meeting of members of his grassroots network, every local government in the South West sent delegates. I saw the power of such a political network on display when in 2019, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held its South West flag off campaign at Mapo Hall in Ibadan, Oyo state. There was and there is still conflict in the Ogun State branch of the People’s Democratic Party, with Buruji Kashamu at the centre of it all. In 2019, the party at the national level had refused to work with him and chose instead to collaborate with other forces within the state. The plan was to hand over the party flag to the Ladi Adebutu group whereas the Kashamu-led Engr. Bayo Dayo faction of the party was legally recognized by the Courts and was effectively in charge of the party secretariat. If the party was not so divided at the time, the PDP would perhaps have won the Gubernatorial election of 2019 in Ogun State. But Ogun PDP remains divided. On election day, fifth columnists further worked against the party.  

I was talking about the Mapo Hall flag-off. Senator Kashamu ensured that his grassroots network in the entire South West was fully mobilized. By 2 am on the day of the event, his political machinery was already effectively on the ground at the venue. We left Lagos at night. When we arrived at Mapo Hall around 3 am, the only people who had secured all the strategic positions were Kashamu’s supporters.  They were fully dressed in party garments, ready to receive the Abuja crowd. He had ensured that his own supporters outnumbered every other group. When the programme began, nobody was unruly. Everything went smoothly. But nobody gave out any flag. That particular item on the programme was conveniently omitted. I saw an aspect of Nigerian politics at work that day. The loyalty of Kashamu’s supporters was obvious for the discerning to see.

I saw that loyalty on display again, last Sunday. The masses trooped out en masse to honour their hero; members of the Kashamu grassroots network defied COVID-19 and ignored the circumstances of his death to pay their last respects. Earlier in the day, access to his residence was controlled. Barrel-chested security men stood at the gates to enforce guidelines. But the people soon found a way around that. They wanted to catch a glimpse of their hero. They climbed the walls of adjoining buildings and occupied every possible rooftop. Others jumped the fence into the compound. Outside, on the streets of Ijebu Igbo, the people mourned. If the people had been allowed, they would have taken charge of the very burial itself. The Governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun was there to commiserate with the widow, the children and other members of the family. Islamic clerics recited Quranic verses.  It was as if those verses, oozing out of the loudspeakers in the compound touched a vein in the people’s hearts. People wailed and wept. I was later told one of our female foot-soldiers became hysterical with grief and kept saying “Kashamu was killed. Wicked people have done their worst. What is Corona? Corona cannot kill Baba. Is it money? Baba can buy Corona many times over.” 

Buruji Kashamu was many things to many people: Baba, Chairman, Senator, Olori, Leader, Esho Jinadu, Ibu Owo Baba Sherifatu, Ekun Oko Susan… He loved the people’s adoration, and he captured their imagination for sundry reasons. He had the common touch. He had no airs. He could stop by the roadside, go into the bush and urinate and then come out. He could enter a store on the highway to buy snacks and drinks for his entourage.  He once told me that he started from a humble background. He said he once worked as a ticketing officer at a motor park in Makoko, Lagos, and later at a Local Government Council. He spoke the language of the streets even better than the boys. During the campaigns, he held meetings with all manners of people. One day, a group of street boys stormed the Omo Ilu Foundation. They said they wanted to see him. The security people told him to ignore them. He disagreed. He went immediately downstairs and asked that the gates should be thrown open for them. He was a courageous man who loved challenges. He told the boys to calm down and without any introductions, he personally called out their leaders.  He then proceeded to speak about his own life. He said he would like them to be like him and make something out of their lives.  He gave them a lecture on drug abuse and warned them never to take drugs or they would end up badly. That encounter ended with the boys prostrating and lifting their hands in the air (Tuale Baba, Buruji,  Buruii, Kashamu Kashamu, ori e wa n be!.)He gave them money and gifts and told them he was ready to support any one of them who was ready to change and be a responsible member of society. 

I am not sure Senator Kashamu had exactly that same kind of connection with the Nigerian elite. He had friends who loved him passionately, but there were also many who had reservations about him. When I accepted to be his running mate, there were many members of the public and the PDP who used to call me aside to say: “You have to be careful. That man may be your friend today, but there is nobody he cannot quarrel with, and if he disagrees with you, he will fight you to finish. He doesn’t have permanent friends.”  Kashamu’s public persona and politics were constructed around this and other narratives. But beneath that, you could sense that he was feared. His combination of financial power, street wisdom and his growing influence as a political force was a bit rather intimidating for his rivals. He probably didn’t help matters with the manner in which he pursued every matter as if a war was afoot. He was a tall, well-built man, robust and inescapable with his physical presence. He devoted both his physical weight and mental energy to every task. He was also brutally blunt. He didn’t know how to pull his punches. On many occasions he showed me vitriolic text messages he sent to those who offended him. If they replied, he would fire back. He feared no one. He once explained to me that he was driven by a commitment to justice. “Too many people are treacherous”, he said. “they would use you and dump you and then work against you.”  He told me he would always stand for the truth. “I hate hypocrisy”, he would add. 

This brought a wedge between him and many people, particularly within the political sphere. But while he would mend fences with others, there were persons he took on with all the weight at his disposal. This probably explains why he loved litigation. I was with him once and someone brought a woman to him whose son had been detained by the police and was charged to court for what looked like a minor misdemeanor. He didn’t allow the woman to finish before he called one of his lawyers, and told the woman, a complete stranger, that he would take up the matter. A lawyer was dispatched. Some assistants were told to go to the police station. Any matter related to police station or the courts brought out a special side of him. If he had not been an entrepreneur and politician, he probably would have been a lawyer or a policeman. I saw him in action explaining legal concepts and quoting precedents. No lawyer could hoodwink him. He would probably be the first to figure out the technicalities of the case. He once asked me and someone to go to a police station to report a matter. He gave a summary of the statement that should be written and I simply marveled. He had a retinue of lawyers and he knew just who to consult on a variety of matters from real property to fundamental human rights. One PDP leader once told me: “That your man. He doesn’t ever get tired of going to court. That is our real problem with him. Court. Court, every time. If you greet him and he takes offence, he will go to court.”     

I found all that intriguing considering the fact that after the 2019 Gubernatorial elections, he and I had a meeting and he told me his plans for the future. He would not run for elective office again, he said.  He would rather concentrate on his businesses which were beginning to suffer at home and across the West African region. He wanted to do three things: (a) build his Lottery business into a more profitable venture across West Africa, (2) re-organize and strengthen the Omo Ilu Foundation to support the grassroots, and (3) stockpile resources for the 2023 election, not for himself but to provide support for his political associates. On the third point though, he added a caveat. He said he would not support me to challenge Governor Abiodun because he cannot sponsor someone from Central to challenge an Ijebu man. “But don’t worry, all of that depends on if Dapo Abiodun does well or not, and then we can sit down and re-strategize. In politics, everything is about strategy.” I told him my plan was to keep doing journalism, see if I can publish one or two books, and that before 2023, I intend to go back to school and get one more degree. He pretended as if he didn’t hear what I said. He sent for drinks and asked if I wanted food. Then he started laughing: “Abati, you mean with all that you have read, you still want to go to school? What for? What do you want to prove? You don’t want to set up business! You want to read more books?” 

He then told me the story of how a former wife of his once pushed him to do an Executive Programme at the University of Lagos. He said it was a harrowing experience. Every day in class was like a punishment. Every examination was like a death sentence! He said he used to sweat in class but he kept at it because that his wife would not allow him to drop out. He said he was relieved when the ordeal was over. “But do you know, my enemies even tried to use that against me, politically?” He was above all, a family man to the core. His young children who are below ten, will one day read about him. May Almighty Allah grant him Aljannah Firdaus. For him, the journey is ended. Let the living worry about their future...        

I am completely heartbroken. Senator Buruji Kashamu was my political mentor. Now he is dead at the relatively young age of 62. I feel like an orphan all over again. I may have worked with the PDP government at the Federal level, but he was the man who brought me into direct, partisan politics. He was one of the most generous men that I have ever known. He was determined to groom me and he did.  He taught me the ropes. He linked me with the grassroots. I learnt a lot from him. Senator Kashamu mentored me and others without any strings attached.  He was a very simple man who was grossly misunderstood by his political opponents. His persona, his politics was indeed grossly misunderstood but those who knew him personally met a man who loved Nigeria dearly and was unapologetically public-spirited.  

He enjoyed giving other people opportunities. He was humorous, kind-hearted, large-hearted and genial. With his death, Nigeria, Ogun state, Ijebuland and the people of Ijebu-Igbo have lost an illustrious son, who demonstrated courage, talent and creativity in everything to which he applied his energy. His death is yet another confirmation that COVID-19 is real, capricious and wicked. It is also a sober reaffirmation of the maxim that “man proposes, but God disposes.” 

 He no longer wanted to run for office in 2023, but he made it clear he would support others to achieve their dreams of getting an opportunity to make contributions on the Nigerian stage. And now, he is gone. Death is a cruel fact of human reality. It puts an end to life and many things.  But Senator Kashamu will never be forgotten by those who loved him and who were privileged to relate with him. My heartfelt condolences to Sherifat and her siblings and all members of the Kashamu family, the people of Ijebu Igbo and Ogun State.     

Reuben Abati, Ph.D 

Senator Kashamu’s running mate, 2019 Gubernatorial election in Ogun State (PDP) 

The relationship between Nigeria and China with regard to loans obtained from the latter to fund Nigeria’s infrastructural projects suddenly became a matter of legislative intervention and public scrutiny last week when the House of Representatives summoned the Minister of Transportation, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning and the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy to appear before it on August 17. The Ministers are expected to explain certain clauses in the Agreement signed between Nigeria and the Export-Import Bank of China with regard to a loan of $400 million for the country’s National Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Infrastructure Backbone Phase II Project. The agreement was signed in September 2018 by the Federal Ministry of Finance on behalf of Nigeria (the borrower).  Nigeria’s lawmakers have raised eyebrows about a clause therein which waives Nigeria’s sovereign immunity if it defaults in its repayment plan. 

The contentious clause is Article 8(1) which provides inter alia that “the borrower hereby irrevocably waives any immunity on the grounds of sovereign or otherwise for itself or its property in connection with any arbitration proceedings pursuant to Article 8(5) thereof with the enforcement of any arbitral award pursuant thereto, except for the military assets and diplomatic assets.” This has been interpreted to mean that Nigeria is in danger of losing its sovereignty to China. The opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has seized upon it to proclaim that it has been vindicated because it has always argued that the mission of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has always been to mortgage the future of Nigeria. PDP Presidential candidate in the 2019 General elections, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, quickly added that Nigeria faces the risk of embracing the fate of Zambia with regard to Chinese loans. Groups and stakeholders in civil society, including lawyers and the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Group (SERAP) have asked that all agreements ever signed between Nigeria and China should be brought forward and subjected to close scrutiny, just in case any government official either out of ignorance or incompetence has committed Nigeria to a debt-trap, to the disadvantage of future generations. 

From the government’s side, the only man who has spoken up is Rotimi Amaechi, the Minister of Transportation, but his explanations do not seem to address the issue. He says for example, that the waiver of immunity in the agreement is merely “a contract term”, a sovereign guarantee. Nobody is convinced. Amaechi and his colleagues who have been summoned by the House of Representatives would have to do much better than that. Nigerians no longer trust their government when it comes to international agreements. The quoted Article 5(1) in the said agreement with the Export and Import Bank of China rings too familiar and too topical in the light of recent revelations about the handling of Nigeria’s agreement with a certain Process & Industrial Development (P&ID). In that case, still on-going, a sum of $9.6 billion is still pending against Nigeria, just because some Nigerian officials signed an agreement that put the country into trouble. 

Now, again, in the case of China, the aforementioned Article 8(1) refers to such words as “arbitration”, “property”, “enforcement of arbitral award”. These are the same key words in the P&ID case. Hence, additional questions need to be raised about the Chinese agreement: who signed the agreement? Was due diligence carried out? Was Nigeria thrown under the bus by the negotiators as has been alleged in the P&ID case?  Ordinarily, a waiver of sovereign immunity does not mean that China will take over the running of Nigeria. Sovereign immunity is a principle in customary international law which simply means that a state cannot be pushed around by another state without its own consent to be so treated, in a foreign court. Hence, in every agreement that may go to arbitration, there is usually an agreement as to the place of arbitration and other details. What exactly did Nigeria sign up to on September 5, 2018 with the China EXIM bank? To the extent that the Nigerian people have a right to know, I am convinced that the House of Representatives is in order to raise the questions before us.     

To go further, the various stakeholders who have asked for a proper audit of all agreements with China are definitely aware of how the $6.6 Billion judgment against Nigeria which became $9.6 billion (because of accrued interest) in the P&ID case poses a serious risk to the country’s economic survival. They are also probably aware that there are similar cases relating to lack of due diligence in the signing of agreements that Nigeria is also grappling with. This includes the international arbitration in Paris with Sunrise Power and Transmission Company over the Mambilla Hydro Power Plant. Sunrise went to arbitration accusing the Nigerian government of breaching a 2003 agreement when it granted a separate contract to Chinese companies. The same Export-Import Bank of China was on the sidelines of that agreement. I understand the matter has been resolved but 17 years after the initial agreement, the country is yet to make any significant progress with the Mambilla Hydro which if things had progressed as scheduled would have emerged as the second largest hydro power plant in the whole of Africa. In this case, as in others, Nigeria remains behind because some characters failed to do the right thing. Similarly, the Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited which was meant to be a game-changer for Nigeria’s industrial growth process, was also held down for years by disagreements over agreements and a prolonged legal tussle between the Federal Government and a company called Global Infrastructure Nigeria Limited (GINL). Ajaokuta Steel is a living archetype of how all good intentions in Nigeria fail. In one word, legal tussles and arbitral disputes over contracts, obligations and commercial agreements have over the years, exposed the failure of public policy and the incompetence of state officials in Nigeria. Minister Amaechi is concerned that if the same controversy is brought to the door-step of the Chinese, they may simply refuse to provide necessary loans for the Ibadan-Kano rail line. Amaechi appeals to the patriotic instincts of Nigerian lawmakers: he wants them to suspend all further enquiries until Nigeria gets an additional $5.3 billion from the Chinese. He means well no doubt, he wants Nigeria to get that Chinese money that Nigeria needs, but in his appeal lies the bigger question about Sino-Africa relations, and the place and conduct of African leaders within that matrix. 

Amaechi is certainly an admirer of China’s romance with Africa. He begs his own country’s parliament to “mechionu” as Igbos would say, so Nigeria can get more Chinese money and sign more agreements. Someone needs to tell Rotimi Amaechi that Nigeria’s engagement with China cannot and should not be reduced to an Abiriba, Aba, or Alaba market transaction business model: “my brother, bring money make we do business, chop together.” But he is not alone. Many African leaders are like that and as they engage China, they fail to look at the sub-text.

 In the 70s, China was far behind many African countries. I grew up in a country where any product that was made in China or Taiwan was derisively dismissed. China and Taiwan were the standard euphemisms for fakery, inferiority and cheapness. In those days, Nigerians talked about the British Standard (BS). Nigeria’s economy was doing well. The Naira was at par with the pounds sterling.  Nigerians travelling to London on Fridays aboard Nigeria Airways, stopped by at Liverpool market and the Main street and spent money as if it was going out of business as a legal tender. This was the age of the oil boom. No Nigerian would touch anything Chinese. I grew up being told that anything Chinese or Taiwan does not last. Even when this COVID-19 break-out began, I heard some older Nigerians insisting that if indeed the virus originated from China, it would not last, because nothing that comes from China can be relied upon. Unfortunately, China pulled itself up by the boot-straps. China re-invented itself while other countries either went to sleep or became complacent. It is ironic that today, Nigeria adores China. In our class at the University of Maryland, College Park, 1996 -97, in an American Foreign Policy Process class taught by Hodding Carter III, in the Department of Government and Politics, we read a book titled “The Coming Conflict with China”. That conflict then was at best hypothetical. Today, it is a reality. China is one country that has leap-frogged into the future in an unimaginable manner. The emergent conflict between China and the Western world will be the most definitive factor of this century and the next to come. Africa and the developing world are both at the centre of that conflict. 

With China thus on the ascendancy, its leaders defined for that country, broad geo-political ambitions. With the West in retreat and increasingly navel-gazing, protectionist and isolationist, China launched a muscular approach to foreign policy with its Belt and Road Way Initiative through which it sought to engage developing economies by way of financial support through loans and grants. The focus has been so far, infrastructural development but there is a lot more in there. Strategically, therefore, long before COVID-19, China tried to fill a vacuum that Western nations created. As Western creditors prescribed more and more stringent conditions for bilateral and multilateral loans, China offered cheap, easy and accessible alternative financing arrangements: interest-free government to government credits, and preferential loans from China EXIM and the China Development Bank. The latter, that is preferential loans, represents the bulk of China’s overseas lending. Developing countries were over-excited. They swooped on China’s offers like bees after nectar. Today, China is the world’s largest creditor to the developing world. Since 2008, China has been Africa’s main trading partner. There is even now in place, a Forum on China-Africa Co-operation. 

Nobody saw the catch, and countries were caught flat-footed. China has been accused of debt-trap diplomacy. Many countries embraced that diplomacy with their hands tied behind their backs and today, their countries are in the throes of debt servitude. China gives but it takes! China helped Sri Lanka to build the port of Hambantota. Both countries signed an agreement, similar to the one Nigeria signed with the Export-Import Bank of China. Today, China runs that port with Chinese personnel. In Djibouti, the Chinese are in charge of the ports too, just because Djibouti borrowed money it could not pay back. In Zambia, for similar reasons, China is now controlling the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (in other words, China is in charge of mind control in Zambia). China is also planning to take over the Zambia National Electricity Company. Djibouti took loans from China to build a new port and two new airports, Unable to repay its loans, China has also taken over a part of Djibouti’s sovereign rights and possession of its new port, and has since set up in that country, its first military overseas base. There have been issues as well, with China’s relations with Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and other African countries.  

But should we blame China? Whatever travails developing countries may have gone through in the hands of China, in the form of damages to their sovereignty, we must all agree on certain basic points. One, “there is no free lunch”. China is not offering anyone a free lunch. Its cheap loans are tied to its own strategic interests in the world.  African nations are the ones submitting themselves as pawns to China’s global strategic agenda. African leaders are most certainly complicit.  Two, “when you borrow, you pay”.  Chinese negotiators are often focused. If you don’t pay in cash, you will pay in kind. The Chinese only give out their loans even under the Belt and Road Initiative to countries that have something to offer in return. Many developing countries are so economically narrow and badly managed, they end up giving up national resources for borrowed funds that translate into debt servitude. Three, and this is the worst part, is that Chinese loans are often opaque. This is one of the reasons China is not a member of the Paris Club. It may have committed to the G-20 process on the moratorium for debt service re-payments for example, but China has stubbornly refused to participate in data calls. It is the biggest player in Africa’s infrastructure boom but it may never disclose the full details. China’s influence in Africa even runs far deeper. In Nigeria, that influence has gone beyond loan agreements that touch on sovereign rights to an increasing ubiquity of Chinese presence in Nigerian lives. It is so real that the Chinese have now taken over a rather complicated business chain in the country from manufacturing to retail, including internet services, hospitality, car sales and ride hailing services. One of these days, we may wake up to see a Chinese roasting corn by the road-side in Nigeria, properly licensed to do so!

Nigerian lawmakers have a responsibility to shout out about Nigeria’s sovereignty, and the integrity of agreements with China or others.  We certainly don’t want to hear that a certain Amaechi has signed off Nigeria’s Presidential Villa to the Chinese to get cheap loans to build a rail line to Port Harcourt!. If that were to be the case, the Chinese will take over that Villa and like P&ID, look at us all in the face, talk about the sanctity of agreements, and dare Nigeria to go to the court of international arbitration. The onus is on Amaechi and co to tell us what we need to know. The Chinese knee is on our necks today, simply because our leaders have failed to lead us aright.