Babajide Sanwoolu, the Lagos State governor-elect and some of the other governors-elect across the country have been busy making promises and beating their chests out of what seems like an epileptic fit of triumphalism.  I urge caution. The new wife is always tempted to put down the old wife – that is what African tradition and culture tells us and in modern politics or what we call democracy, this anthropological and cultural side of our nativist politics often shows up to remind us of the residual character of African democracy. But in the long run, the old ends up looking like the new in emergent African democracies because of the putative nature of our democratic institutions, the inchoateness of African states and institutions, the depressing crisis of democratic governance and the problematic recruitment of leadership across Africa. We are beginning to see a little of that after the 2019 general elections in Nigeria and I think concerned stakeholders should pay attention, and use some of the indications for the mapping and analysis of future outcomes. 

In Lagos, the Governor-elect, Babajide Sanwoolu has been busy making promises. Lagos is a good example to start with because it is the heart beat of the Nigerian economy. Lagos state is one of the few states in Nigeria that can pay the new national minimum wage. It is the soul of the Nigerian economy. It is one of the very few productive economies in Nigeria, capable of generating more revenue than what accrues to it from the Federation Account under the purview of section 162 of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution as amended and altered. Sanwoolu, an anointed candidate of the godfathers of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos State, chosen as an alternative to an incumbent Governor who fell out of favour with the same Godfathers – the Baba so wi pe group- is a very lucky man indeed. Elections are not necessarily won in Africa on the basis of popular choice- political leaders are often anointed and brought to power by those who have mastered how to exploit the fault lines of the electoral process  viz: the manipulation of electoral structures, institutions and processes, an organized, vicious disinformation process to discredit the opposition and civil society mechanisms, the manipulation and distortion of dominant narratives and the brazen abuse of the instruments of coercion.   

Whatever may have brought Babajide Sanwoolu to power (still under investigation), he and others in his situation should be governed or guided by the Chinua Achebe paradigm that those whose palm kernels were crushed for them by benevolent gods should learn to be humble. I see a trend: the newly elected Governors replacing the incumbents who lost out in the power game have been behaving as if they are wiser and smarter. They should be reminded that that was exactly how their would-be predecessors behaved when they displaced the incumbents that were once in office. Even at the Presidential level, those who voted for President Muhammadu Buhari thought that under his watch, the Goodluck Jonathan administration will be put to shame and that Nigeria would fare better. The indicators have shown that Nigerians were much better off under Jonathan, but I will not comment further on this, and hence return promptly to the focus of this commentary. 

Sanwoolu, the Governor-elect of Lagos State has been quoted making many promises, after the 2019 election in the spirit of the triumphalism of the moment.  He says for example that he will employ graduates as BRT drivers and pay them N100, 000 as salary. Sanwoolu was speaking to his former classmates - the Executive Master of Business Administration class, University of Lagos, 1998/2000 set. He was asked questions by his own former classmates and all he could offer were promises. His incoming government will do this. And will do that. That is what most of these newly-elected Governors and legislators across the country have been doing. They are ever-ready with poorly considered, formulaic responses. Sanwoolu wants to pay drivers N100, 000? Has he checked whether or not the state can afford to do so? 

At the same event, Sanwoolu boasted that he would put an end to the traffic gridlock on the Apapa expressway within 60 days of his inauguration. He should be careful about what he promises. One of his predecessors, as Lagos Governor, Babatunde Fashola once boasted when President Jonathan was in office, that the problem of electricity supply in Nigeria could be solved within six months. God decided to put him on the spot.  He has been Minister of Power for four years. He has not been able to solve the same problem. In fact, he has been having problems with the private sector stakeholders who now play a dominant role in the electricity sector. They don’t see eye to eye, in a manner of speaking. Elected and appointed persons should learn to moderate their enthusiasm.      

Babajide Sanwoolu represents a known type. The ambitious triumphalists of the psot-2019 general election in Nigeria believe, or perhaps they assume that they represent a new type, but they are at best products of an established stereotype: the same comprador-bourgeoisie responsible for the capture of the Nigerian state. But as Governor-elect of Lagos state, I want to give Babajide Sanwoolu of Lagos State a benefit of the doubt. For this reason: I served with him as a pioneer member of the Lagos State Security Trust Fund (2007 – 2011). Governor Babatunde Fashola was our appointor. Mr. Remi Makanjuola of Caverton Helicopters, was our Chairman. Mr Fola Arthur-Worrey, former Solicitor-General of Lagos State was the Executive Secretary of the Board. It was our remit to build the foundation of the Lagos State Security Trust Fund.  That remit was based on a foundation of service and contribution. Nobody on that board ever collected a penny for serving on it. Governor Fashola did not offer a penny and we too did not ask. We had a meeting over whether or not we should collect sitting allowances. 

We all resolved that we did not need sitting allowances. When we held meetings, Mr Fola Arthur Worrey and Mr Makanjuola did not offer us refreshment or lunch. The Trust Fund could not afford it. We could not in good conscience ask the private sector and other stakeholders to donate vehicles and funds for the security of the people of Lagos State and use part of that money to have lunch. Babajide Sanwoolu was one of those members who supported the Chairman, Mr Makanjuola and the Executive Secretary, Fola Arthur-Worrey. He clearly understood the meaning of service and responsibility.  

We were all glad to serve under the leadership of Mr. Makanjuola, and happy not to use donated funds for lunch or sitting allowances. We used the donated funds to build an emergency and command centre at Alausa, to launch an emergency distress number and to provide vehicles and other facilities for the Navy, the military, the Police, neighbourhood vigilante groups and the civil defence forces in Lagos in the best interest of the people of Lagos state. We all made the sacrifice together and Sanwoolu was part of our team.  Before then, he had served as Special Adviser and Commissioner within the Lagos State establishment and he would thereafter serve in other capacities in government.  

I bring this up out of the belief that Sanwoolu who has been part of the Lagos government since he was brought into the picture, from banking to public service, would remain committed to higher goals and the values of integrity. He must therefore see the need to refrain as he prepares for his inauguration on May 29 as Governor from making empty promises. He should know that he cannot fix the Apapa traffic gridlock in 60 days! He is not a professional politician. He should resist the temptation to talk like one. He must also know that the media will call him to account and will double check. His public communication managers must advise him not to make promises that he cannot keep. 

As Governor of Lagos State, Sanwoolu must also resist the temptation to hound his predecessor, Governor Akinwunmi Ambode. Ambode may not be so politically astute, he being a thoroughbred technocrat, but he does not deserve the punishment and the betrayal that he has experienced. Ambode was my colleague as a US Fulbright scholar- specifically the Hubert Humphrey Programme in the United States about two decades ago. The motto of the programme is: “an individual can make a difference.” There is no doubt in my mind that Governor Ambode of Lagos State has made a difference in Lagos State and in other areas of engagement. We are proud of him and I am sure the constituencies that he belongs to as a scholar and technocrat will be pleased that he has given a good account of himself.  His contributions to Lagos state cannot be erased. He may have made some mistakes. Sanwoolu should not allow himself to be used as an instrument to humiliate him or embarrass him as he steps out of office.   

But while I have used Sanwoolu as an exemplar of the kind of promises we have been having from new Governors or even by extension, legislators-elect (one legislator-elect has promised to turn his constituency into a version of Heaven – but how, please?, how? - these shameless liars! ), it is noteworthy that  even out-going Governors have been been behaving badly and making unreasonable promises. What they could not achieve in four, eight years, some of these defeated or outgoing Governors have been talking about. You know the Governors of Oyo, Ogun and Bauchi states for example. In Oyo state, Ajumobi has had the effrontery of insisting that he is the best thing that ever happened to Oyo State. In Ogun State, Governor Ibikunle Amosun has set up an official web of conspiracy around the in-coming Governor Dapo Abiodun. I have written a piece on this previously. What I got in response was an insulting and disrespectful rejoinder. I am sure Governor Ibikunle Amosun and I will sooner or later meet at a level that is beyond politics, because when he is no longer Governor, and he is no longer in a place to deploy aides to insult me, it will be clear to him that I offered an informed and honest opinion. In due course, everything will fall into place, beyond the larger politics of Nigeria. 

But back to Nigeria, the worst of them of all is the departing Governor of Imo State. His name is Rochas Okorocha. He too, behaving like “the constituted authority of Oyo State” has been busy boasting that he, Rochas has achieved everything and there is nothing for his elected successor, Emeka Ihedioha to achieve anymore. We are told that the only thing left for Ihedioha to achieve is to complete a building Rochas Okorocha is yet to complete because Okrorcha has already done everything!  Does that make sense?  Okay, may be what is left is for Emeka Ihedioha to erect a statue of Rochas Okorocha as a befitting recognition of the legacy of a man who turned lifeless statues into a symbol of statecraft.   

I sympathize with the people of Imo State. And I jubilate with them. If indeed Owelle Rochas Okorocha made that statement, and he has not deemed it necessary to deny it, then nobody needs to be told that the people of Imo State made a good decision voting for Emeka Ihedioha of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). If I may be allowed to be partisan for a few minutes, Emeka Ihedioha is one of our own. He is a journalist. He left the newsroom and went into politics. He ended up as a Member of the House of Representatives and as deputy Speaker of that House.  He has led some of the progressive causes in the making and re-making of Nigeria since 1999, and in his constituency, the media constituency, we are very proud of him and his achievements. He is a symbol and a representative for the Nigerian media community. He shares that distinction with Bala Muhammed, the Governor-elect of Bauchi state, who is also a journalist. Bala Muhammed has been a Senator of the Federal Republic. He has served as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. He did his best as Minister. He was efficient and reasonable. But he has been much maligned by the authorities, and those committed to their own selfish interests. He has now been validated and vindicated by his own people who have moved him from grass to glory by voting for him as Governor. 

Here is my post-election, preliminary analysis, in this regard, in no way exhaustive or definitive- one of a series – It seems to me that most of our newly-elected representatives, Governors-elect and legislators- elect do not have any idea about democracy or the assignment that lies ahead of them and the out-going elected representatives are mentally blocked about the privileges that they have enjoyed.  They are committed to their own personal interests, not the common good. The Governors just want to govern. They talk without thinking. They have no real plans. They just want power. About two or four exceptions perhaps, but for the most part, Nigerians should be concerned about this revelation. We are likely to get the same of the same. But it would help if the elected persons ahead of their inauguration, try to be sensible enough not to behave badly or make unintelligent statements or such political speech that cast doubts on their eligibility for office.  They will destroy their own credibility by so doing. And it would help a great deal more if departing Governors and legislators-elect can just keep quiet too, and focus more on the common good. The election was bad enough. They should not make things worse by showing so early in the day that the people made mistakes.   

President Muhammadu Buhari is under obligation to announce a new Federal cabinet. The tenure of his present team of aides, including Ministers, Special Advisers, Senior Special Assistants and Special Assistants automatically expires on May 29, 2019. Whereas the President took six months to announce many of these appointments in 2015, the convention and the law is that those appointments are for a tenure of four-years - in line with the Chief Executive’s own tenure and once that tenure ends, the appointments, due to the effluxion of time, end automatically. 

The only exceptions perhaps are the appointments to the headship of parastatals and agencies whose tenures are statutorily defined, and even in those cases, the President on whose behalf the occupiers of those positions exercise delegated authority can have their positions determined, with or without recourse to the National Assembly, strictly as may be stipulated by the enabling law. President Buhari himself has shown an awareness that one term of his government is coming to a close and that another is about to begin when last month, he called for hand-over notes. 

There has been palpable anxiety in the corridors of government since he made that call. It is noteworthy that President Muhammadu Buhari has been perhaps the only Nigerian President since 1999 who has not shown a willingness to change his team mid-stream. Every one who has worked with President Buhari has enjoyed a relative security of tenure. Whereas other Presidents before him- Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan -found cause to fire some aides – Ministers and assistants and appoint new ones, either mid-term or along the way, President Buhari has carried on more or less like a father-figure who cannot disown any of the children he gave birth to in 2015, even if many of them have behaved very badly or proved to be utterly incompetent and/or ungrateful. While such an attitude may be good in a family, private context, it may not be the best in a national, public context. 

The few Ministers who left the cabinet did so because of their own political ambition (Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti, Aisha Alhassan,  Khadija Bukar Ibrahim), or because of scandals that they could not live down (Kemi Adeosun is the obvious example here) or death ( James Ocholi) or another job (Ibrahim Jubril, Amina Mohammed). The body language from President Muhammadu Buhari is that left to him, he would have retained these Ministers, if he could. It must be noted that even heads of agencies who are undergoing trials in courts, under the Buhari government are still sitting pretty in their positions. The President is unaware, it seems, that such officers should be asked to step aside until their guilt or innocence is established. It was convenient to do so in the case of the ancien Chief Justice of the Federation, Walter Onnoghen, but someone obviously overlooked the same principle in other cases. 

These contradictions in terms of avowals and actual reality that dog the Buhari government in virtually every respect has understandably made the appointment of new aides, a major issue of public discourse. No President can do the job alone. Governance is team work.  The Constitution gives the President the latitude to choose his own team. The Nigerian Constitution practically makes the Nigerian President a monarch with the powers to hire and fire, exercising near-divine powers that in many ways compromise democracy. This is one of the reasons why a return to Westminster-type parliamentary rule may well in the long run be the best option for Nigeria. For now, it seems clear that the people who surround a siting President, the people who work with him or for him, can make all the difference when he is in power and office and when the bubble eventually bursts and he is out of the impregnable fortress of Aso Rock. It is for this reason that questions are now being asked: Who should make the President’s next cabinet? Should the President retain his present team or disband it altogether? What should be the criteria for retaining or dismissing the cabinet members? Should the President keep his entire team, or send some of them adrift? What kind of cabinet would Nigerians love to see after May 29, 2019? 

Two recent developments have made these questions pertinent.  In the past few days, President Muhammadu Buhari forwarded the name of the incumbent Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele to the National Assembly for re-nomination and confirmation for a second and final term in office as CBN Governor. This has elicited mixed reactions. There are persons who believe that Emefiele has been donated a second term as CBN Governor because of his closeness to Aso Rock, his political astuteness (romancing the powers-that-be), including even going to the Mosque with the President, and pretending to know the Muslim way of worship. There are also those who argue that Emefiele deserves his re-appointment because he has been a major pillar of stability in managing Nigeria’s economic crisis, combining his monetary policy responsibilities with the fiscal side of things that should ordinarily be other people’s responsibility. 

The CBN under his watch also introduced policies that helped to guide Nigeria through recession, create a special window for local and foreign investors, incentives for Small and Medium Scale Enterprises, farmers and the creative industry, astute management of the interest rate and lending regimes and a positive determination to sustain Nigeria’s economic growth recovery agenda. It is my firm belief that by retaining Emefiele, who was originally appointed by the Jonathan administration in 2014, President Buhari has in this instance, risen above emotionalism to opt for stability, merit and continuity. Local and international investors and other stakeholders are easily disoriented by unpredictable change which increases risk calculations. The re-nomination of Emefiele will give them confidence to the extent that future risks and direction of Nigeria’s monetary policy are at the moment predictable.   

The second development is the appointment of Ms Abike Dabiri-Erewa as Chairperson of the Diaspora Commission. While Emefiele’s re-appointment speaks to continuity, merit and stability, Dabiri-Erewa’s appointment is a reward for hardwork and loyalty, and it is well-deserved. Appointed Special Assistant to the President on the Diaspora, Abike-Dabiri has shown commitment and dedication beyond the call of duty. She has been very hardworking in monitoring and defending the interest of Nigerians in diaspora. Her commitment is unmistakable. Her passion is remarkable. Her courage is commendable. Wherever any Nigerian in the diaspora found himself or herself in distress, Ms. Dabiri-Erewa reached out on behalf of the Nigerian Government. She became so effective her detractors began to grumble that she was upstaging the Minister of Foreign Affairs. My view is that she probably would have been a better choice as Minister of Foreign Affairs, but the Diaspora Commission being her baby and passion, she is probably better off as the pioneer Head of that Commission, which is obviously a sound demonstration of government’s awareness of the strategic importance of Nigeria’s Diaspora community.

If these two foregoing appointments may be taken as indicators of what may happen after May 29, we can comfortably say that President Buhari may have at the back of his mind: merit, competence, continuity, stability, reward for hardwork and loyalty, albeit not necessarily in that order. But what do Nigerians expect? They expect from our own reading that President Buhari would not take another six months to constitute another team. He will do himself a lot of favour if on the morning of May 30, 2019, or even on the 29^th, he announces a new team. Doing so will send a signal that he means business, and that he has learnt some lessons since 2015. Nigerians also expect him to show more independence by doing away with the so-called cabal that has held him hostage since 2015. His party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has been going about boasting that only loyal party members will be rewarded and that only the APC will govern Nigeria. That of course is a stupid proposition. President Buhari must project himself as a man who is willing to unite Nigeria across party, ethnic, religious and geographical lines. The hawks in his party should not draw up his appointment list. He must be guided by the principle of inclusion, not the desperation of party leaders who see electoral success as a ticket for parasitism and vendetta. The general elections of 2015 inflicted many wounds on Nigeria, the extent of which has not yet been fully studied. President Buhari can through the choices he makes, going forward, heal some of those wounds.     

Mr. Eric Teniola, a veteran journalist, and a former Director in the Presidency, wrote in April, that since independence Nigerian Heads of State and Presidents who have had a second term, have tended to retain just about 8% of their original cabinets. He raised a poser about what President Buhari is likely to do in his second term without necessarily offering suggestions. Most recently, the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, SAN also argued and he has not refuted this, that a tenure of four years is too short for a Minister to make a difference. That has been interpreted as an attempt by Fashola to lobby for re-appointment, more so as he is the Superior minister of the Buhari cabinet, holding three portfolios: Works, Power and Housing, each of the Ministries so tragically embattled at the moment. 

But what do I think? I think the cabinet that Buhari has worked with so far is the worst that Nigeria has had since 1999 and I am just being charitable, saying this. Not even under Sani Abacha did we have such a terrible mix. In a country of extremely talented and resourceful persons, the Buhari cabinet, 2015 -2019 is a scandal. Obviously, after the 2015 elections, President Buhari was under pressure to settle IOUs and give jobs to the boys who helped him to fulfil his dream. So, from every part of Nigeria, they gave him the boys to do the job and he too picked some prominent hangers-on and long-time loyalists. You can’t run a good government by recruiting family members, ethnic bigots, party financiers and a bunch of clueless politicians. President Buhari must not repeat that mistake, whatever the pressure. He should ask for CVs, conduct interviews by himself alone, and he must reverse this trend of sending names to the National Assembly without portfolios, and avoid the error of appointing dead persons! Whoever is going to appear before the Senate as Ministerial nominee must also have a portfolio attached to his name. It is a bad thing to have a Minister presiding over a portfolio over which he is ill-suited. 

Mr. Teniola talks about 8%. Fashola talks about continuity. President Buhari should sack more than 80% of his team, all the way down the line. They have not served him well with their open and embarrassing display of lack of colour, grace and competence. For a start, all the Ministers of State should be fired and changed. They cannot plead that they are mere spare tyres. It is their lack of initiative and ambition that has turned them into spare tyres. Heads of agencies and parastatals should not be allowed to hang on to the myth that they are occupying tenured positions. The President is constitutionally empowered to fire any one when he is tired of their services. Many of them should be sent home and that includes the horde of special assistants and advisers doing nothing, occupying space and often causing problems. President Buhari should ignore any and every list from the party secretariat. APC party leaders are busy with their own private agenda. 

But despite the concern that we have expressed, there are definitely persons in President Buhari’s team that he can still work with, who in our estimation can add value, and who can be part of Teniola’s 8%. Okechukwu Enelamah should make the list. He is the current Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry. I saw him the other day in April at the Arise Fashion Week event where he was a a panelist at one of the sessions on fashion and export promotion. His sterling performance linking government policy to SME performance and articulating the forward-looking policies of the Buhari government made me to take a second look at his record. I was particularly pleased with his passion for tourism, export promotion, his synergy with Segun Awolowo, the Head of the Export Promotion Council, and his faith in the gains of a diversification of the Nigerian economy.  I checked him out. There are people like him around President Buhari who are often overlooked because they don’t know how to make noise or show up sycophantically at the mosque. Under Enelamah’s watch, Nigeria’s ease of doing business ranking has improved, and he has sustained the legacies of his predecessor in that office – Olusegun Aganga - and has also decently refrained from playing politics with plain-sight progressive ideas. I recommend him.

I also recommend Babatunde Fashola, SAN. He deserves to be retained not because he has tactically lobbied for it but because he is a man of discipline and talent. President Buhari overburdened him by giving him three Ministries. I don’t think Fashola can easily multi-task. He is a focused personality. President Buhari should play to his strength by giving him a single assignment. I believe he will deliver. I also recommend the Minister of the FCT. He may not be very good at using the media to project himself, but he has nonetheless proven to be a very good manager of the country’s Federal Capital. Minister of Budget and National Planning, Udoma Udo Udoma is a very competent man but he is in the wrong Ministry. President Buhari can try him elsewhere, in a position best suited to his talents. The Minister of Education, Adamu Adamu has done an excellent job. He should be retained. Audu Ogbeh, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development should be given a high national honour and advised to retire. Lai Mohammed, the Minister of Information has outlived his usefulness, like Chris Ngige and Rotimi Amaechi. Professor Isaac Adewole, the Minister of Health, like Okechukwu Enelamah, also still has a lot to deliver. Who else is in this their government…?

“Thank God President Buhari is back in the country. I feel some kind of relief.”

“What is your own? Are you his son? And what is wrong in a man taking some time off work and returning 10 days later.” 

“But you will agree with me that private visit to the United Kingdom more or less heated up the polity and generated considerable anxiety. Too many people became lawyers. When some people quote the Constitution like this, you will think that they know it all. And then those ones who call themselves Constitutional lawyers…” 

“I think I have told you this before. There is nothing called Constitutional lawyer. There is no such special category. No lawyer has special rights over the Constitution than other lawyers. Every lawyer uses the Constitution. It is the basic law upon which every other law rests. It is like a work tool, like a mason’s square. It is even like you saying there are stethoscope doctors. Every doctor uses the stethoscope. It is like saying someone is a public affairs journalist. I am yet to see a private affairs journalist. If you know one, let me know.”

“Yes, I do. I definitely know some journalists who like to poke their noses into people’s affairs, whether public or private. It is about time someone began to give such journalists a bloody nose.” 

“It is always so easy to blame the messenger, and preach to the media.” 

“Well, someone you know very well, just did that. Femi Adesina has been busy mocking the opposition, saying the online journalists who wrote stories speculating that President Buhari could extend his stay in the UK have been put to shame and the hogwash that they fed the public has been exposed as fake news.” 

“He was very specific. He talked about the online media.”  

“What is the difference? In fact, you are likely to get more information from the social media these days than from the mainstream media. Is that why Femi should be giving everyone a lecture on press freedom and the need for responsible conduct?” 

“He has a point there. And I will advise you not to push the point too hard. Indeed, the kind of things some people write on social media in this country, if you are on the other side, working for either the President or any other high-level government official, you are likely to fight back, except that certain things are just not worth paying attention to.”

“So, are you now recommending censorship?” 

“No. I am making a point about the nexus between freedom and responsibility”

“I disagree.  The people in government should also be told about that nexus. The President exercises the freedom to go on private visit, and then he comes back, and someone asks him about the security situation in the country and all he can say is that he noticed that the Inspector-General of Police has lost weight, so he must be working hard. Has anyone bothered to brief him about the kidnap of the traditional head of his own village and his Aide de camp’s father in law?”

“I actually thought the President displayed a good sense of humour there.”

“Humour? After how many persons have been killed across the North West within ten days? Who cares whether or not the Inspector-general of Police loses weight or not. We want him to protect Nigerians and get the job done?”

“Try and be nice a little bit. The man has only spent 100 days on the job as Inspector-General of Police, and he has lost weight trying his best.” 

“Okay, may be by the time he spends a year, he will have no weight left at all. Who is that doctor saying people lose weight when they work hard?” 

“ I think we should try to encourage people who work for this country. I disagree with you. And you can’t blame the IGP for anything. Nigeria’s security problem is far more complex than something anyone can solve in 100 days. You should know that. By the way, the Katsina State Commissioner of Police has been asked to relocate to Daura. That is based on the Inspector General’s directive.”

“Eye service. Eye service. That is what we do in this country. The last time some persons were kidnapped in my own village, nobody directed the State Commissioner of Police to relocate there. The Inspector General of Police should consider himself lucky he is not from Sri Lanka. When people were killed in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday and it was established that the police chief and the defence Minister had failed to act on prior intelligence notice, they were both asked to resign, and the President didn’t crack jokes. Bet with me…”

“I don’t bet. I don’t gamble.” 

“You don’t know what you are missing. Let’s bet…you will see that all these our service chiefs and heads of security agencies will soon be given National Honours by the Federal Government. Just bet with me.”

“You can’t punish a person for the failure of the system. I support the present Inspector-General of Police. Are you aware that one police officer has been redeployed from Lagos state to Ebonyi state, Abayomi Shogunle, the ACP in charge of Public Complaints Response Unit for publishing insensitive tweets on his twitter handle, calling some women prostitutes. ”

“And the police told you he was transferred because of tweets? And how is transfer to Ebonyi state being interpreted as a punishment? Did he tweet on the official twitter account or his own private twitter account? Please don’t insult the people of Ebonyi State. Any police officer can be sent to any part of the country. What I condemn is eye service.”

“I am talking about freedom  of expression and responsibility.  Even when you are free to do private things, as a public officer, you must be responsible enough to make sure that your private choices do not violate your professional responsibilities.” 

“I really don’t get your drift. You talk from every corner of the mouth. One day, you will say the President is entitled to a private visit, another day, you’d say a police officer cannot crack jokes on a private twitter account. Nobody knows where you stand. If a President can do private things, then a security officer can also do private things.”

“You should be careful and stop comparing apples and oranges. You are too fond of it. And this is the problem with Nigerian democracy. Every one likes to talk. If you talk like this about some Presidents, you’d see what will happen to you.”

“What will happen to me?”

“In Russia, for example, they passed some bills recently making it an offence for anyone to insult government or criticise President Vladimir Putin. You cross the red line, you either go to jail or pay a fine for spreading fake news, and you cannot just say what you like online.” 

“We have rejected red lines in Nigeria. Nobody can gag us. It can’t happen here. The people who spread fake news most are our government officials at all levels. We should gag government, not the people.”

“It is easier said than done. In Burundi, and that is here in Africa, three schoolgirls were recently detained for doodling on the President’s photo. In Uganda last year, Dr Stella Nyanzi, an academic, was charged to court for making comments about the right of President Yoweri Museveni to privacy. She was charged for cyber harassment and offensive publication. In Zimbabwe, it is also an offence to insult the President. Go and ask Terrence Mkhwananzi. What was his offence? He had the temerity to point at President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s portrait in public and accuse him of having a hand in the death of his father. In Rwanda, Tanzania and Indonesia, if you insult the President, you go to jail.” 

“I don’t see what are you trying to say. You want fascism in Nigeria? We can’t even make comments again about the affairs of state?”

“Nigeria is probably the only country I know where people will open their mouths and abuse the President. Your President comes back from a private trip, instead of you to welcome him, you are saying the President should stop cracking jokes about the IG losing weight and get down to serious work. While he was away, you were all busy asking whose money he was spending on a private trip. One opposition spokesperson even said President Buhari was wandering all over the UK. Very soon now some of you will come and say President Buhari should relocate to the North West or Sambisa forest to deal with the challenge of national insecurity. Wh-a-t?”

“Yes. I can even say it. Where were you when they told us the President can govern Nigeria from anywhere?” 

“I have said my own.” 

“Nobody can limit our freedom as Nigerians. You keep citing countries where people cannot talk about the President. In case you have forgotten, in the United States, people abuse President Donald Trump and nothing happens. The only reaction is that Trump also goes on twitter to abuse people.”

“Okay I have heard you. But just be careful and I hope you know we are now in the season of Ramadan. I will advise you not to go to Kano. You know you like to go about eating here and there.”

“I don’t get it.” 

“You mean you haven’t heard that in Kano, the Commander General of the Sharia police has issued a warning that any Muslim caught eating in public during Ramadan will be arrested. You will only be released if you can prove why you must eat in public while others are fasting.” 

“And how does that apply to me?  I am not a Muslim.” 

“Okay, when they arrest you, you can go and prove that you are not a Muslim.” 

“Even if I were a Muslim, you don’t force people. There is something called freedom of choice. In any case, I have no plans to visit Kano, except that I hear the Governor is giving out so many women as wives.” 

“And the ones in your life, what have you done with them? During this period, just don’t post food anyhow on your Instagram page and keep saying you are a foodie. You may be guilty of encouraging people to eat.”    

 “I am not aware that people don’t eat at all during Ramadan. What I know is that you are required to fast and do everything in moderation, and to use the Holy Season to help the needy and seek the face of the Almighty and his blessings.”  

“Oh, so you know. Fasting is very good for the soul and for the body. In fact I know some Christians who also fast along with Muslims during Ramadan. Some one like you will need to fast, so you can lose some weight and become hardworking.”  

“That should be my private affair. I don’t like all this Godfather syndrome in Nigeria. People want to tell you what to eat, what to think, what to wear, what to say. No.” 

“Well, I hear some Godfathers are being threatened too. Senator Saraki lost election in Kwara State. Governor Nasir el-Rufai who was in Lagos over the weekend was quoted saying he has retired all the Godfathers in Kaduna state politics and that is why he got a second term. He reportedly added that he can help the people of Lagos State put an end to the reign of Godfathers in Lagos politics.”

“I hope he knows who the Godfathers in Lagos are. He wants to come and do “O to gee” in Lagos. Has he heard of “O to ope”? And I hope someone was quick enough to tell him to return to Kaduna state and concentrate on Kaduna because Lagos politicians don’t seem to be in a hurry to get rid of their own Godfathers.” 

“But he has a point. Nobody should be allowed to run Nigerian politics as if it is a private affair.” 

“There is politics in everything though. Even in marriages and in every space where you find one or two persons coming together. Have you not been following the Tonto Dike story?” 

 “Tonto Dike? Who is that?” 

“You can’t tell me you don’t know Tonto Dike.”

“Does she know me?” 

“She is a Nollywood star. Her story has been trending There is also Regina. And Tiwa Savage. Okay, do you know Bobrisky?”

“Who is that?

“Bobo-to-risky! No wonder you are so uptight always. You don’t know what is going on at all levels. Who in this country has not heard what Tonto Dike said about her baby’s father and estranged husband?” 

“I have not heard anything. I don’t do idle street gossip. I don’t talk about other people’s private lives.”

“These things are all over social media.”

“But wait a moment, how did we suddenly move so fast in this conversation to the disgraceful level of gossip?”

“It is not gossip. You should loosen up. Try and know your environment.”

“No. I won’t go there with you. I discuss ideas, not people. And I have been telling you: mind your own business in this country. And you should be selective about what you read online”.         

“You look dull. I hope you are good”

“What else can the son of man do, with all the problems on someone’s head in this country?” 

“What happened? Your team messed up in the Premier League? Is your problem David De Gea?”

“No”

“May be the Arsenal coach then, because that match Arsenal played against Leicester City, during the weekend, the entire team, from Manager to the reserve bench should be placed on transfer when the window for transfers open. I should ask sef, which one is your team?”

“My problem is not football, please. I am not one of those who lose their heads over football in the UK, when they don’t even know the name of a single football team in Nigeria. I just can’t stand our people’s obsession with everything European.  It is a kind of colonial mentality. Neo-slavery.” 

“Please don’t moralize. We live in a global village. People are free to make their own choices. If I buy a television set with my own money, I can watch whatever I like on it. So, what is your problem? What’s on your mind?” 

“I am actually thinking of going on a private visit abroad.”

“So, what is stopping you? Go ahead.”

“You know how it is. I don’t want a situation where I will now travel and people like you will start carrying placards, complaining about how I travelled without telling close friends.”

“Ah come on, my friend. Must you joke with everything? When last did I even see you? If you travel quietly and you come back, what can anybody do about that? Sometimes, it is even good to hide your movement. You know our people and their bad belle, envy and evil eye.”

“I think it is just sheer courtesy to let close friends know one’s movement. It is our culture. Otherwise, you would think I am anti-social and that I am stingy. As I don tell you now, even if na small chocolate, I go buy bring for you, make you too taste something from the abroad”.     

“Well, good for you. But as for me, I don’t know about other people, every man with his own hustle. So where are you going?”

“Jandon”

“Jandon. What is that?”

“You don’t know Jandon? That is the slang name for London. I will just go for about a few days. I won’t even tell them in my office. I will just steal a few days and call in sick. My boss likes to kill somebody with work. I cannot come and kill myself. I am telling you because you are my man.” 

“That is like cheating your company. The company must know where you are at any time.” 

“You are my person, that is why I am telling you.” 

“You are a manager in your company. You must set a good example. I am sure the terms of your contract do not allow you to go on secret trips.” 

“All of these because I have confided in you? Even the President of Nigeria goes on a private visit. He is in London right now, nobody actually knows where he is there, what he is doing, who he is talking to, who is visiting him. That is the President. I beg, company can rest. I want to do like the President. It is a private visit to London, please.”

“I would expect that the normal thing for you to do is to apply for leave. You can just write about three lines. I am sure your office will have a back up for your position who can cover up for you while you are away. Until you resign or leave the job, you have a duty of care to ensure that you don’t disrupt your company’s operations. You can’t just take off and say it is a private visit. Even if you are going to see Her majesty the Queen, it is unacceptable. It is just simple, straightforward commonsense. You know I am your friend, just advising you.”

“So that what will not happen? So that the company will not sack me?  They will not try it. I am the soul of the company. I have paid my dues.  They all know my integrity is intact.” 

“Your integrity is not intact if you take the company for granted.” 

“You can’t know my company better than me. I work there. I know my worth. But it is not your fault. I tell you something, you begin to offer advice. I am sure you are one of those people going about saying President Muhammadu Buhari cannot go on a private visit.”

“Yes. I am.” 

“I know. Of course. You are a PDP sympathizer. Must you people play politics with everything? Is the President not entitled to go away for some days after a hectic election, to just go and rest, take some time off from the madness of Nigeria, recuperate, rejuvenate and prepare himself for the beginning of a second term?”      

“He didn’t follow due process. It is simple common sense.”

“Common sense. Common sense. How many of your proverbial common man voted for common sense in the last general elections? The common man rejected common sense and I tell you nothing will happen.” 

“That is a different matter. What I am saying is that the President of Nigeria has a duty to respect the Constitution of Nigeria. Whenever he wants to travel, he must inform the National Assembly and hand over to the Vice President who will act on his behalf. The Constitution does not recognize “a private visit.” The President of Nigeria is a public official. The Nigerian taxpayer must know where he is, what he is doing at all times.”

“Very soon you people will alter the Constitution and ask for details of what the President does with his wife in the other room. You people are busy quoting the Constitution as if it descended from Heaven.”

“We are in a democracy. There are rules of engagement. We are under the rule of law, not the rule of men. We cannot have leaders who break the law. We must call them out.” 

“I know you people’s problem. You are not happy losing the election.”

“That is not it. I am a Constitutional purist.  A President can only be absent from duty within the purview of the law. The law is what the law giver says it is, just as company rules and terms of contract are sacrosanct.”

“So what will you say, if you suddenly hear that indeed the President, before leaving for London already sent a letter to the National Assembly? After all, there is no vacuum. Last Wednesday, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo presided over the Federal Executive Council meeting. Under his watch, FEC approved N56 billion for the e-border initiative. Other contracts were awarded. He is in charge in the President’s absence.” 

“Is he doing that as Acting President or as co-ordinator of activities as he was once described when the President delegated authority to him?” 

“Semantics. You people are the ones complaining. What if a letter suddenly shows up on the floor of the Senate?”

“I won’t put that past them. But we have been told anyway that the President can rule Nigeria from anywhere in the world. And we are saying we don’t want a diaspora President. Every job has a contact address and the contact address for the Nigerian President is in Nigeria. We know about official visit, state visit and working visit.  The Nigerian Constitution does not talk about private visit. It talks about vacation.” 

“You better don’t give yourself hypertension. I think lawyers, politicians and journalists are just always looking for something to talk about. Keep talking, before you know it now, Buhari will be back in Nigeria.”

“What if he extends the visit? After all, he once disappeared for more than 100 days.” 

“And what happened? I think this whole problem has been created by his spokespersons. I think they should just have told us that the President is going on a short leave. He is entitled to vacation. But I also guess they have called it private visit, because they don’t want appointment seekers and contractors to disturb him. All those sycophants who are always seeking the eyes and ears of Presidents have been tactically told to keep off.  You must always see things in context.”   

“That is not an excuse to disobey the Constitution. The president cannot embark on classified trips. He cannot go on secret missions.  That is unknown to the Constitution.”

“Would you be satisfied if you suddenly see him going to Selfridges to shop, or having a meal at a restaurant? You want to see him. Fine. I just hope you people will not come again and say he is using Nigerian money to have fun” 

“No. He cannot go to Selfridges. He will have to explain the source of the money.” 

“There you go. Please can we talk about something else. Last, last, everybody will be okay in this country, because it looks like everybody is depressed. It is just the level that differs. People who have not seen N500 thousand in their lives will be shouting, our money, our money”

“You are just a government apologist.” 

Yes, I am. It is only government apologists that win elections in Nigeria. At least for now. And for your information, my long-term plan is to go and run for election in my state, Bayelsa state. That is why when you were talking about company rules and contract, I just dey look you. See in our state, the House of Assembly has just passed a bill that says every lawmaker in that state who ever served is entitled to a life-time pension. Next election in that state, I am there oh, my brother. N500k for life, every month. Even if I die sef, I will tell my family not to let anybody know, so they can keep paying the money into my account. I will just go on a private visit to heaven.”

“Countriman will not sign that bill into law. He must not do it.  It is a vexatious piece of legislation.”

“Who is Countriman? And what is your own? Are you from our state?”

“Seriake Dickson, your Governor is the man we all call Countriman. Look, we must insist that politicians must have jobs that they do. The job of the legislature is to make laws for order, stability and good governance, not to make selfish laws that establish a rent-collection system for lawmakers. I have it on good authority, anyway that Governor Dickson has rejected that bill.” 

“You don’t know what you are talking about. Your countryman must not try any such thing. The House of Assembly will override his veto. Leave matter. You see, in this country, everybody is looking out for himself. You are busy quoting Constitution. That is why you are still struggling. Listen to yourself. If you give yourself hypertension, you are on your own oh. All these people with whom you make noise, you’d be surprised some of them are collecting rent somewhere. That is Nigeria for you. I am a pragmatist.”   

“Certain things are just not right”

“And you are the one going to correct those things that are not right. Something that Tafawa Balewa could not do. Something that Gowon could not do. Something that Murtala Muhammad died for. Obasanjo and Buhari put head, more than twice. Na you and your noise-making go solve Nigerian problem? I beg.”

“I am a patriot.”

“Very good, congratulations. What you don’t know is that every country has its own identity and culture. Look at New Zealand and Sri Lanka. On March 15 in Christchurch, New Zealand, two mosques were attacked, 50 persons were killed.  The leadership of that country has used that tragedy to turn around their country, and reflect deeply. They changed gun permit laws. Prime Minister Jacinta Arden is leading a campaign for open, secure and safe internet, to check extremism and bigotry. On April 21, in Sri Lanka, terrorists struck again killing more than 300 persons. The President of Sri Lanka has fired the defence chief and the police chief.  Here in Nigeria, people are killed daily, abducted, brutalized. Have you seen or heard that anybody has been fired? Get real, man. If you are a patriot, be real.” 

“We need a people’s revolution in this country. We need to rescue young men like you from those who have captured your minds and the Nigerian state.”

“Oh, sorry. I see you have been busy watching television. The people who talked about revolution in the last elections in Nigeria lost woefully.  Wake up, man. You better don’t go and talk revolution with Nigerian policemen when next they flag down your vehicle. Your revolution can earn you a bullet in the leg.”

“Leave me alone. Look at you. You keep talking about Nigeria as if you are from Guinea Bissau.”

“Don’t worry hen. I will buy you something from London… Bye.”

I believe we all have that one family member who thinks that he or she has the right to intrude into your schedule and order you around. When they call you, they won’t give up until you pick their calls. And these people, they can call you liked a hundred times. Send text messages. Whatsapp. Report you to the entire neighbourhood. They can be so ferocious, your phone will keep ringing non-stop, you would think the fire service is at your door. This is exactly that happened to me, for at least two hours, as I sat down to write this piece. I stubbornly refused to take the calls. Wetin? Some people can use the phone to harass and intimidate.  Ki lo de? I could neither think nor write.

I had other things in mind: the defiance of the Sudanese Professionals Association, for example. The people of Sudan want a new post-Omar al-Bashir order, a complete break from the past,  by all means. They have refused to accept whatever has been offered by the military council that took over after Omar al-Bashir’s ouster. They want an immediate transition to civilian rule that is led by the people themselves not by soldiers. I am fully in support of the people of Sudan. Omar al Bashir is a shameless dictator. He deserves the place that he has now been given in the Kober Maximum Prison, the same place where he used to keep his critics and victims. 

He also deserves a day before the court of justice: to answer for his crimes against humanity and the hardship he imposed on his own people. African dictators, like Percy Shelley’s Ozymandias, believe that they are invincible but we have seen them falling one after the other and there are more that should fall: Paul Biya in Cameroon, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo in Equitorial Guinea and Idris Deby Itno in Chad. Between 1993 and 1999, our own professionals used to be like present-day Sudanese Professionals. We had the Concerned Professionals, who stood up and insisted on an immediate end to military rule in Nigeria. But that was then. Our professionals have all since taken to pepper soup and goat head, and to inanities garbed in the cloak of acquiescence and indifference. Many of them have developed pot-bellies. They have eaten their own part of the forbidden Nigerian fruit, their mouths smeared with oyel, I mean oil. And hence: Professor Pat Utomi who was one of the original minds behind the revolt of the Nigerian middle class in the mid to late 90s Nigeria is now writing a trilogy on the complicity of the Middle Class and how that Middle Class has failed Nigeria. There are lessons for the Nigerian Middle Class in what is happening in Sudan. 

I also had in mind the Easter Day killings in Sri Lanka, over 290 dead and over 500 injured in what looked like a pre-meditated, organized attack on churches, guest houses, hotels and other buildings. Coming shortly after the tragedy of Notre Dame de Paris, those who argue that Christianity seems to be under assault and that our humanity is under siege may not be too far from the truth. Sri Lanka is a country with serious ethnic and religious fractures, a little trigger could throw that country back into civil war and protracted humanitarian crisis. The response of the enlightened world is in order; the blatant act of terror has been condemned from the Vatican to Nigeria’s Aso Rock. 

I wondered though, how our own Aso Rock picked up the tragedy in Colombo with such emotional clarity and promptly issued a statement. On Good Friday, there were reports of Christians being killed in Katsina-Ala Local Government of Benue State as they returned from church. The Nigerian Presidency apparently missed that, but of course Sri Lanka was in the international news networks, and our leaders in Nigeria hardly watch Nigerian news channels. But let someone fire a shot in the West Bank, or release a report in Washington DC, or a bullet in Yemen, there will be a buzz around Nigeria. It is amazing how the yet unaddressed imbalance in the global information order leaves Nigeria constantly showing up at the lower end of the moral, governance and policy spectrum. 

I was also thinking of the Sharia Council telling President Muhammadu Buhari to take national security seriously and protect Nigerian Muslims, and I thought the best message would be to insist that all Nigerian lives matter- Muslim, Christian or animist. I also read a story about the Minister of Finance saying Nigeria is mindful of its borrowings from the Chinese, Eurobond loans, the World Bank and the Africa Development Bank and how we have not even borrowed enough because we have not yet reached the threshold of borrowings within our peer group, and I felt like lamenting how poorly digested textbook knowledge sabotages Nigeria. By now, Nigeria should be tired of all these half-baked ideas about debt-to-GDP ratio, and all these power point intellectuals who get to high office after a weekend course in Harvard where they learn nothing other than the ability to do power-point magic. Their village-type, poorly exposed bosses look at the power point and they think it is magic. Pat Utomi may need to investigate the abuse of technology as an instrument of deception and theft in policy corridors, facilitated by the complicit middle class that he is disturbed about.           

My head was trying to sort out these issues, even as my phones kept ringing, buzzing and tingling. The calls would not stop. The urgency was intimidating. The persistence was offensive. I picked.

“Yes?”

“I have been calling you since. If somebody is calling you, you should pick your calls.”  You know that kind of tone, sounds like the guy at the other end is holding a horse-whip and would apply it on your back, to beat the devil out of you, if you were available.

I smiled, knowing that the call will soon go off and you will be told later that the caller’s credit is finished. In Nigeria, callers don’t ever have credit on their phones, particularly if they are calling from hometowns. You ‘d have to call them back and send them phone credit later. 

“Yes? Ki lo sele. I hope there is no problem. A ku odun oh. Compliments of the season. How are my children?” It always helps to be polite.

“Amosun ti tun bere oh. Amosun has started again. Jemila ori e ti jeun yo o. He is on rampage”. 

“What’s the problem?” Ibikunle Amosun, also known as Senator Ibikunle Amosun (SIA) is the Governor of Ogun State, Nigeria, (2011-2019).  Amosun ran for the Senate from Ogun Central, his Senatorial district in the 2019 general elections, and the people of that constituency decided to send him to the National Assembly which sadly has become a retirement home for former Governors who need a resting place and for all kinds of malcontents without measurable ability- the reason Nigeria’s National Assembly is progressively incompetent. Amosun also wanted to impose one of his boys as Governor of Ogun State; he even chose candidates for all the seats in the election, but the people rebuffed him. They rejected his Gubernatorial candidate and voted majorly for the All Progressives Congress, the party that brought him, Amosun to power, and which he rejected to go and form a rival party, a platform he deployed to treacherous use in one of the most classical cases of anti-party politics. But Amosun is not giving up. He lost the election. He was humiliated, but since the elections, he appears set on a revenge mission. 

“Amosun has sent caterpillars to Kuto market. He wants to demolish all the shops including Mama’s shop. Call your sister quickly, so that they don’t destroy the shop.”

Mama means my mother. She died in 2013. In her lifetime, she rose to be an Iyalode of one of the key groups in that market and the state. The caller was so hysterical that her shop will be demolished. But wait a moment, if Amosun wants to demolish the entire market, it would be wrong to worry about personal spaces.

“Caterpillars are already in Kuto. They say Amosun has asked them to demolish anything in sight”, I was told. 

It is barely four weeks to Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s end of tenure, but he seems to find it difficult to withdraw as Governor of the state. His minion having lost the Gubernatorial election, he has since embarked on a desperate mission to tie the hands of the Governor-elect, Prince Dapo Abiodun. He is creating booby traps for him. He is laying land mines. If what we know is so bad, how about other acts of mischief that are not yet in the public domain? Since the Gubernatorial election of March 9 in Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun has refused to conduct himself after the fashion of a gentleman. He and his chosen candidate have refused to congratulate Dapo Abiodun, the declared winner of the election. Instead, Amosun, using the power of incumbency has been busy appointing permanent secretaries, general managers, and board members. These new appointees are not going to work with him. They will work with a new Governor that will be sworn in next month. Is it morally right, intelligent or correct to act so mischievously? Amosun has also embarked on the demolition of houses and structures while announcing new projects by the state government. In Abeokuta his hometown where the people voted for him to go to the Senate because they believe he used the office of Governor to help his own Egba people, Amosun has been busy demolishing houses and shops in Adatan towards Moore junction, Adigbe, Lafenwa market and now Kuto. The people’s interpretation is that Amosun is targeting political opponents and their areas of influence. 

But his main target is Dapo Abiodun, the Governor-elect. There are uncompleted projects across the state. Amosun is not focusing on those uncompleted projects in the twilight of his administration. He is busy destroying things and creating new problems. It may take Dapo Abiodun a whole four years to correct the damage that Amosun has created since the election of March 9. Whose interest is being served? Even President Muhammadu Buhari who may not need handover notes is asking for handover notes. In Ogun State, Amosun has refused to set up a transition committee. The Governor-elect has a Transition Committee and 10 working groups. But there is nobody to talk to on the other side because the Governor has refused to recognize the people’s will.  Amosun can beat his chest in his wife’s presence in “the other room” and remind her that he is still the man in Ogun State – good for him- but each time he does that he should keep an eye on the clock and the timelines of history. 

It is sad that our democracy in Nigeria continues to create little tyrants. Amosun is definitely not alone and this is not in any way, a partisan comment. In Oyo state, there was once upon a time a man who called himself “the constituted authority”. He too demolished buildings and punished anyone whose face he didn’t like. His name is Abiola Ajimobi. He was also once a Senator, and he became Governor. As Governor of Oyo state, he was a male version of the legendary Efunsetan Aniwura, the bad woman of Ibadan politics. Not even the Olubadan could talk to Ajimobi. He trampled on the traditional institution and surprised even his own most ardent admirers. Why and how do good men end up as villains in Nigerian politics? I have no clue yet. It is sad that in Oyo state as in Ogun state, we have been hearing stories about the outgoing Governor behaving badly. Ajimobi also wanted to go to the retirement house in the National Assembly. The people have rejected him and also rejected the candidate he wanted as his successor. Ajimobi has not been smiling since then. He too has been behaving like a China in the bull shop.              

Ajimobi is just probably slightly better than the out-going Governor in Imo State, Rochas Okorocha who also wants to go to the National Assembly. INEC won’t give him a Return Certificate because INEC insists he forced the state Resident Electoral Commissioner to declare him winner under duress. Okorocha wanted his son-in-law as his successor, but the people of Imo state refused. They voted instead for Emeka Ihedioha of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In Imo state, the people have rejected Okorocha’s “Iberiberism”, whatever that means.  Ihedioha should humour Okorocha after May 29, by erecting his statue at the market place so the people of Imo State will for long remember the “Iberiberism”  known as Rochas Okorocha.

These are only three examples of the end-time Governors in Nigeria. Their two-term tenures have ended but they want to retain control and remain in charge. This is not the first time we would see this withdrawal syndrome on display. Power is like opium. It is addictive. Once you take it, you get hooked. End-time Governors probably deserve some kind of rehab treatment. They must learn to let go. There must be legislation banning all departing Governors from making last minute bank withdrawals, contract approvals, demolition of houses and shops, and new appointments. The rule that a serving Governor is in power till the last minute is made for decent people, not for the types we have seen in Nigeria. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) should be more concerned about these rogue, end-time Governors than the politics of the 9^thNational Assembly.      

Young people are leading a people’s revolution in Algeria and Sudan, both developments remind us forcefully of the wages of mis-governance, the power of the people to seize control of their own destiny, and the role that the youth can play in a country’s development process.  It is encouraging to see that in both countries, we are witnessing the triumph of the people’s will. In Algeria and Sudan, it is Arab Spring (or Winter?) all over, with the people saying No to Repression, No to Dictatorship, No to the abuse of power. 

The ordinary people are the heroes in both emerging revolutions- the villains are the members of the ruling elite, those the Algerians refer to as “le pouvoir” (that is the powerful) who have suppressed and alienated the people for decades. Algerians want a complete change of system, a break from the past. The people of Sudan are similarly asking for a new order. These courageous young men and women, who have since been joined at the barricades by professionals and in Algeria, by the military, are determined to stand firm until they have their way. They refuse to be cajoled. They do not want half-measures. They know what they want and they have been very peaceful in making their demands. They are no longer afraid. They are on the streets. They are on social media. The power of the youth in full expression, can be loud and overwhelming.  

In Algeria, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the 82-year old who has been the absolute dictator in charge of Algeria since 1999 and a member of the ruling establishment since independence from France in 1962, has been pushed out by the protests. Bouteflika’s reign of terror was marked by corruption, cronyism and repression. In 2010/2011, he survived the Arab Spring that swept through North Africa and the Middle East resulting in political crisis and regime change in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria. But he could not survive weeks of protests by the Algerian people this time around. Bouteflika had used every trick in the books to remain in power. Since he suffered stroke in 2013, he had been rarely seen in public, choosing to run the country through a selected group of family members and political associates. Still he wanted a fifth term in office. The people refused. 

In February, he tried to introduce cosmetic changes with the promise that there would be a national conference. The people took to the streets. They no longer trusted him. They just wanted him to go. He eventually abandoned his fifth term ambition. Even that was not enough for the people. They waved the Algerian flag on the streets, and spoke their minds with unusual boldness. Many of these young Algerians who have become revolutionaries have not known any other President in their lives. But they have seen the corruption of the Algerian elite and they were determined to register their protest. 

A descent into chaos seemed imminent until Army Chief General Ahmed Gaid Salah intervened and asked that the best way forward would be to invoke Article 102 of the Algerian Constitution, and thereby move the country forward within the Constitutional Framework. Article 102 requires the Algerian President to step down in the event of his incapacitation, and with his exit, the leader of the Upper Chamber of parliament would assume office as President in an acting capacity and conduct fresh election within 90 days. Bouteflika, Africa’s oldest President has since resigned, his vanity project of building the Great Mosque of Algiers remains uncompleted. His successor, Abdelkader Bensalah, the former leader of parliament has promised that he will organize elections on July 4 and respect the people’s will. But the Algerian revolutionists have refused to stop the protests. They don’t just want Bouteflika out of the way, they want the entire system that he represents and all his cronies that he has placed in strategic positions in both government and business out of the way. They are putting pressure on Bensalah.   

In both Algeria and Sudan, we have not only seen the people- the youth - fighting for themselves, rejecting years of misrule and graft – we have also seen the military establishment turning against the government. In Algeria however, the military helped to facilitate the process of change. In Sudan, we have the military subverting it – that is a key difference between both countries. In Algeria, the military queued up behind the people to defend the Constitution. In Sudan, the military capitalized on the people’s protest to seize power, suspend the Constitution and impose a state of emergency on the country. But one lesson from both countries is that it may be unwise to under-estimate the people’s resolve. When a revolution begins, especially one arising from disenchantment with prices and living conditions, it may be difficult to predict when and how it will end. This explains why in Sudan there have been three Presidents in two weeks. Four-month protests over rising prices of fuel and bread ended surprisingly in the removal of Omar Al-Bashir from office. Al-Bashir like Algeria’s Bouteflika, is a veteran dictator. Most of the young people who are leading the protests in Sudan were not yet born when al-Bashir seized power in Sudan 30 years ago. The military may have taken advantage of the people’s protests but the youths of Sudan insist that the military is unacceptable because that is not the change they want. General Ahmed Ibn Auf has had to step down. He fell within 24 hours! The new General, Abdel Fattah al-Bashan may also not survive in the face of the people’s anger even if he has taken the step of sacking and detaining more members of the disgraced al-Bashir government, and appears ready to negotiate a civilian-led transition. Omar al-Bashir ran a military government in practically every regard. His reign was marked by state-sponsored terror, autocracy, war and genocide.

The military council in Sudan has declared that it has no intention of handing him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) where he is wanted for war crimes and crimes against humanity, thus confirming the suspicion that the new caretakers in Khartoum are a clone of the al-Bashir government. The politics of the ICC notwithstanding, Omar al-Bashir should be made to answer for his crimes, against the people of Darfur and the people of Sudan in general. It is not enough to keep him in “a safe place.” 

These recent developments in Algeria and Sudan, and perhaps Kazakhstan should be a warning sign to all sit-tight leaders and those leaders who take the people for granted. Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev is probably the smartest of the three dictators. Faced with protests by the people, Nazarbayev quickly stepped aside in March, to make way, he claims, for “a new generation of leaders.” He manages to retain control of his country’s Security Council. He has also created a cult of personality around himself with a pompous, self-styled title of “Leader of the nation.” The capital of Kazakhstan has also been named after him by Parliament. It doesn’t matter as his own day of reckoning would still come. 

Across the globe, there is a growing new wave of fascination with the ideas of democracy and people power, especially among the youth. It must be considered a positive thing that the youths of Africa are part of this trend. Africa has its fair share of dictators and sit-tight leaders. It took sustained international outrage to get Joseph Kabila to relinquish power in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He is now Senator for life!  In Equitorial Guinea, Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo and his children are sitting atop the country’s wealth; the old man has no plan to leave power anytime soon. In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni is effectively a President for life. But all autocrats should contemplate and learn from the fate of Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia, and now Abdelaziz Bouteflika of Algeria and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. No matter how long it takes, the people usually win in the end.

It is one thing, however, to get rid of the strong man of power, it is another to maintain or achieve national stability. Dictators may be removed or they may die or they may be incapacitated, but after their exit, they tend to retain something of the country’s DNA in their hold. This is the sad story of Cote d’Ivoire after Houphouet-Boigny, Libya after Muammar Ghadaffi, Iraq after Saddam Hussein, Venezuela after Hugo Chavez. The rest of the world must therefore keep an eye on the developing scenarios in Algeria and Sudan. It is the people’s will that must prevail in the end, not the will of military usurpers or the clones of the ousted autocrats.       

What happened in the United States, at the Augusta National Golf Club on Sunday was phenomenal, historic and inspirational - a truly human story in its grandeur and implications. With a single, final stroke, and a hard stare, Tiger Woods won the Masters, his fifth since he won the first in 1997, 22 years ago. History was made. This was his 81^stPGA tour win. His first major title since the 2008 US Open. His fourth Masters green jacket was in 2005. As he wore the jacket again on Sunday, 14 years later, he said: “It fits”. Indeed Tiger, “it fits.” 

It was one of those wow moments in the history of sports. The crowd cheered. The Tiger roared! On display was a touch of greatness, originality and talent- pure talent. Tiger Woods’ career as a golf athlete has been marked by “highs and lows” to borrow President Barack Obama’s words, but the highest moment for him, a moment that would forever be remembered in the history of golf was that moment on Sunday when he shot the final putt on the 18th hole. The legacy of Tiger Woods has become one of the most defining moments in the history of the game itself, and although he is second in terms of overall record to Jack Nicklaus who has a record of 18 major wins, Tiger Woods trails behind with 15 major trophies, there is no doubt that Tiger may well end up as the champion of the records. He is however, not defined by statistics. 

He is defined by his determination, confidence and the manner in which he has ended up at the other end of the tunnel of self-discovery to regain his composure and his pre-eminence. Many cannot be blamed for giving up on him and thinking that he had reached the end of his career. His marriage collapsed, he was called out by women who accused him of sexual harassment. He had a car accident. He was charged for driving under the influence. As recently as 2017, he was still battling with multiple back and leg injuries. He even took to painkillers. He lost the star power that he once wielded as younger players took over the game and charted their own paths, even if many of them came into the game, inspired by him. On Sunday, April 14, the old Tiger Woods returned to claim his place as a Master of the game. 

His triumph is the triumph of the human will over adversity. It was pure humanism, irony and spirit on display. For a man to rise and fall, and find the courage and the energy to rise again is one of the most inspirational tales about what makes us human. For generations to come, others will draw inspiration from the example of Tiger Woods. He is beyond golf. He is such a fine example of the human spirit. 

The young 21-year old who won his first green jacket in 1997 has become the man, one of the greatest of all times. In 1997, his father watched him as he wore the green jacket. This time around, his own children, 11--year old Sam and 10-year old Charlie, were at the Augusta National to watch him. The son has become the father. A cycle closed, a new chapter was opened, as history was made, fusing together the story of three generations beyond the moment.  Tiger’s two children were not yet born at the time of his reign as the king of golf. Hear him: To have my kids here, it’s come full circle… You know my dad was here in ’97 and now I’m the dad with two kids here.” That was touching. Those words reverberate beyond the golf course. 

There are of course many lessons to be learnt from the story of Tiger Woods. Only those who persevere win at the end. From being the Tiger of the pack, Woods, ended up in sixth position in the PGA Championship in 2009, fourth at the US Open in 2010, and sixth at the British Open in 2018, and at other times he disappointed us even more tragically. But now that he is back at the top, the question is: will he be able to sustain the magic? And it won’t take too long for us to get an answer to this question as Tiger Woods participates in some of the tournaments in the remaining months of the year: the PGA Championship, May 16-17, US Open, June 13-16, British Open, July 18- 21 and the Presidents Cup, Dec. 12-15.  Whatever happens in the future, we would all have that memory of April 14 to cherish: Tiger Woods is the greatest comeback king of the game. His achievement, by the way, momentarily united President Trump and President Obama, with the two political opponents agreeing on the authenticity of Tiger Woods, with President Trump becoming a twitter cheerleader for Tiger Woods. Congratulations, Tiger.   

We owe our colleague and compatriot, Kadaria Ahmed a debt of gratitude for leading a group of Zamfara stakeholders to bring to local and international attention the mayhem and chaos going on in her home state of Zamfara state, which resulted in the killing of innocent Nigerians, the disruption of mining activities and the reign of what can best be described as sheer madness. The video on the Zamfara protest has since gone viral, with the intrepid journalist, daughter of Zamfara, Kadaria Ahmed calling out the Governor of the state, and the President of the Federal Republic. The image of Ms Ahmed, standing out there un-cowed, unbowed, courageous and outspoken, with an orchestra of men hailing her and urging her on is an image that will remain etched in my memory for a long time to come. I salute Kadaria’s courage and heroism.

We need more persons like her. Persons who can stand firm in the face of tyranny. Persons who can lead citizens to positive action. Persons who can call a spade by its name. Courageous men and women who can expose the idiocy of executive arrogance. I am particularly proud that Kadaria is one of our own. Media men and women often get blamed for the malfeasances of others. All over the world, they are treated as victims and fall guys: it was refreshing seeing one of our own standing again at the barricades to defend in the field of action, one of the finest virtues of the journalistic trade: the capacity to speak truth to power. Thanks, Kadaria, for giving Nigerian journalism and the tradition of activism a necessary shot in the arm, at a time the push was most needed. This daughter of Zamfara, this beautiful daughter of the North West, had fought on behalf of the people of Borno, Benue and Plateau and the missing girls of Chibok and Dapchi. When it came to the turn of her own people, it was good to see her taking to the barricades and standing firm. She says she has not been able to visit home for about a year. 

She speaks for many Nigerians who are on exile in their own country. They can’t visit home because their homesteads have been turned into killing fields. It is not all the people in the Internally Displaced Camps in the country that represent the full population of displaced persons: there are many others who are stranded within this country who can not go home out of fear and despair, many of our compatriots from Borno, Benue, Plateau, Barkin Ladi and other parts of Southern Kaduna and Adamawa are stranded, they can’t go home, not anymore, and yet weekly or monthly, they receive sad tales about their relations who have been killed or abducted or their sisters who have been raped and murdered. In the video in which Kadaria Ahmed featured prominently, a distraught lady reported that her brother has been abducted in Zamfara and the villains are asking for a ransom of N200 million.  

Kadaria Ahmed adds that the Governor of Zamfara state is “the most useless Governor in the history of Nigeria”. This may be a very harsh assessment, which speaks to the depth of her feelings and anger. But many Nigerians can relate to that. There are many Nigerians who consider the Governors of their state, useless, irresponsible, and indeed, stupid. Ms Ahmed was drawing attention to a major Nigerian malaise: the failure of leadership which results in sundry social crisis and the over-prioritisation of politics over and above good governance and common sense. According to her, the Governor of Zamfara state, Abdullaziz Yari has since abandoned his responsibility as Chief Security Officer of Zamfara State. We we were told he gave up that function. He resigned. Candidly, what kind of man abandons his people to their fate? 

We were also told that Yari spends most of his time in Abuja.  Many Nigerians can also relate to that. Nigeria is supposed to be a Federal system. But we have this unfortunate system where state Governors spend more time in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, shaking tins and begging for hand-outs from the Presidential table. Other levels of government in what is meant to be a Federation are at best beggars, seeking a share of the national cake. When a state gets a bad Governor, he practically relocates to Abuja, to promote the culture of sycophancy and slavishness. I may not agree that Abdullaziz Yari is the “most useless Governor in the history of Nigeria”- the word history is too ennobling- nonetheless, I can name at least two other Governors that I consider more useless who may not necessarily fall into the framework of “Nigerian history” but let me say that I know one thing: Kadaria Ahmed is very truthful and blunt. 

In that video that has now gone viral, Ms Ahmed also called out the President of Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari. She reminded him that the buck stops at his desk and he has a responsibility and a duty to defend the interest of the people of Zamfara state. She told him that the people of Zamfara state voted for him in 2015 and gain in 2019, and they deserve his attention. This our sister sef? She was practically calling the President of Nigeria an ingrate! Kadaria! But the rhetoric worked. It had to take a protest by Kadaria Ahmed a few straggling men, and others, cowering behind an alpha female, calling out everybody for President Buhari to take notice of the crisis in Zamfara state. And what did he do? He issued a statement from Jordan, where he is attending a conference on the Middle East – how does that really concern us, the lazy wonks at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have not yet told us- but the President tells us that he is the “one of the unhappy leaders in the world.”  How pathetic. 

Our President is “one of the unhappy leaders in the world!” Ha. Please fetch me tissue paper. I need to clean my tears. If the President is looking for the meaning of sadness, he should visit the families in Zamfara, Birnin Gwari and Kakangi who have lost their loved ones. He should go to Benue and Plateau states and find out what is going on, He should go to Southern Kaduna and feel the people’s pains. He should go to Sokoto and find out what has gone wrong. We are definitely not talking about his own happiness here. We are talking about the happiness of the Nigerian people and their right to decent, safe and secure livelihood. It is the duty of the President to discharge that responsibility and lead all of us to what he himself and his campaigners call “the next level”- whatever that means.   

I have an idea: President Buhari is probably the only Nigerian President since 1999 who has curiously and surprisingly retained dead woods in his team for four years. He should as he seeks to constitute a new cabinet, sack all his service chiefs and re-jig his cabinet. They may be his kinsmen or friends, but they are not helping him. He needs to do something drastic about the Nigerian security architecture and the governance team as well. He The office of the President is not a place for a functioning Godfather and an avuncular presiding officer. President Muhammadu Buhari must think out of the box if he is serious about moving this country to “the next level”,  and let us make this additional point, with due respect: some of the ideas and initiatives that President Buhari needs will not come from the compromised APC henchmen that he surrounds himself with. I don’t want to imagine how Kadaria Ahmed will describe these henchmen. She is so independent-minded she may just conclude that they are weak and incompetent, and there will be enough evidence to prove her right. But what the heck, Kadaria, these same men got the President a second term! And you too have been accused, most recently of being a Buhari promoter!

But by the way, the Nigerian government has since taken notice of what is more popularly known as the #MarchforZamfara protest. The President has issued a statement. He needed to be prompted to do so! The security establishment and the Nigeria Police have also said that they are extending something they call “Operation Puff Adder” to Zamfara state. Whoever throws up these names must be a comedian. We have heard of Operation Python Dance. Do pythons dance? We have heard of Operation Crocodile smile? Do Crocodiles smile? And now Operation Puff Adder. I beg. There is serious humanitarian crisis in the troubled states of the North East, the East and the North Western parts of Nigeria. It is about time the Nigerian government realised that we are talking about human lives.  These days, when Nigerian authorities announce that 60 persons died in Sokoto and 50 were murdered in Zamfara and five others committed suicide in the South West, or five husbands killed their wives in the Mid-West, they make it sound like it is small number, out of 200 million, but hey, when will our government at all levels begin to realize that every Nigerian life matters? This is the strong message Kadaria Ahmed and her likes are putting across. Don’t tell them to bugger off. And I say: all the male chauvinists who have been attacking her on social media should go see a shrink. 

My take: Operation Puff Adder sounds like a knee-jerk response. As for Governor Abdullaziz Yari, he should just keep quiet. Whatever he says can be further used against him. And when President Buhari returns from the luxury trip to Jordan, he should visit Zamfara state and other troubled parts of Nigeria to publicly demonstrate his “unhappiness”. There has been so much talk about the role of foreign miners in the Zamfara crisis.   Can we just be reasonable for once? The problem in Zamfara is not about foreigners. It is about us, about Nigeria – the failure of leadership, the idiocy of the governing class and the dividing lines that continue to make this country so pathetically vulnerable.  As things stand, it looks like the government of Nigeria only responds to emergencies when people go out to protest.  This is the ultimate take-away from the #MarchforZamfara protests. 

The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has announced that the commission will soon reveal the time-table for Governorship elections in both Kogi and Bayelsa states. He made this known while defending the commission’s 2019 budget estimates before the joint National Assembly committee on INEC. The elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states are termed end-of-year elections.  But first, we are glad to hear that INEC was fully funded in 2017 and 2018, under the open envelope system. Many Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government that have appeared before the National Assembly have had cause to complain about poor funding, that is- the failure of government to respect the terms and provisions of the Appropriation Act. INEC wants more money and expects to be fully funded again in the 2019 budget. I have no problems with that. The Chairman of the Senate Committee and his counter part in the House of Representatives more or less commended INEC for a job well done in the 2019 General election. I don’t know about that. I certainly have a different opinion. But it is good to see that INEC, despite all its tribulations, and loss of face, is moving on and thinking ahead. But while doing that, INEC and its Chairman, Professor Yakubu Mahmood may as well be reminded of a few points:

1. Not many Nigerians are pleased with the conduct and management of the 2019 general election, and before it, the elections in Ekiti and Osun states.
2. Most Nigerians are convinced that INEC as it is, is heavily compromised. They do not believe that it is an independent institution. The coming elections and the outcomes of the litigation over the 2019 elections provide INEC an opportunity to restore public faith and confidence
3. We hope that INEC will take proper stock of the 2019 general election and learn and imbibe certain lessons and use its institutional framework to make appropriate amends.
4. INEC should be seen to be supporting the amendment to the Electoral Bill as proposed to ensure greater transparency and credibility in the conduct of elections. The failure of card readers and the spectre of vote-buying made the recent Nigerian elections look more or less like a clever contrivance with pre-determined outcomes.
5. Kogi and Bayelsa are very sensitive states, where the people have developed a high level of political consciousness. The only thing that INEC owes the people in those two states is to conduct free, fair and credible elections and refrain from “the scourge of in-conclusi-vity”.  
6. INEC’s reputation is at stake. Professor Mahmood should begin to worry about how history will remember him and his tenure. He should pay some attention to that and may be he should start by paying attention to public perception. All the persons before him who boasted “ I don’t care” ended up in the dustbin of history. 
7. There is the silence of the mortuary and anger in the land. INEC should not put fire to that anger. INEC is already looking ahead, the people are looking at the past and the present. All timelines may collide in the future, and all architects will be called to account.        

In a Report titled The Misery Index 2018 authored by Dr. Steve Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, Nigerians have been labelled the sixth most miserable people in the world. The misery index was introduced in the 1970s by Arthur Okun, an American economist, author of the seminal work, Equality and Efficiency: The Big Trade Off (1975). The original index considers such factors as unemployment rate and inflation rate. It is a formula, a methodology as it were, consistent with what is known as Okun’s law, but modified subsequently by Harvard Professor, Robert Barro and Professor Steve Hanke. The latter releases a Report annually. He tells us that: “My modified Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. Higher readings on the first three elements are “bad” and make people miserable. These are offset by a “good” GDP per capita growth which is subtracted from the sum of the bads. A Higher Misery Index score reflects a higher level of misery, and it’s a simple enough metric that a busy president, without time for extensive economic briefings can understand at a glance.” 

In the 2018 Report which is basically a forecast of what to expect in the year 2019, Hanke identifies Venezuela as the most miserable country in the world, followed by Zimbabwe, Argentina, Iran, Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, South Africa, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Egypt and Ukraine. . Is Nigeria the sixth most miserable country in the world? Where is Syria? South Sudan? Somalia. Steve Hanke’s Report does not necessarily cover all the countries of the world. But certain points are clear from his submissions.

First, the Misery Index makes the point very clear that economic growth is linked to the people’s prosperity and happiness. Countries that suffer from stagflation are likely to have very miserable citizens. Second, lack of economic growth or a poor economy can result in political and social crisis as we have seen in Venezuela where inflation rate is said to be above 6,000% and Zimbabwe where inflation is allegedly over 97%, although this has been disputed in other evaluations which unlike Hanke’s Index, accommodate the employment rate in Zimbabwe’s informal economy. Third, good governance, leadership and political stability are important factors for macro-economic growth. The least miserable countries in the world as seen in the Misery Index 2018, would also seem to have strong leadership, and institutions and a certain measure of stability. Fourth, poverty should be avoided because it could lead to misery. Fifth, the state has a responsibility to prevent the growth of poverty and promote economic growth. 

It is important to break down and outline some of these well-known, elementary points because I see a tendency in this season to ignore external rankings or politicize them. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has already jumped on the back of the Misery Index to say that the Report confirms the party’s position that Nigeria’s economy “has virtually collapsed under Buhari.” The Hanke index does not say that the Nigerian economy has “virtually collapsed”. It says the people are among the ten most miserable people in the world. It is an economist’s index not a political review. 

Nonetheless, there are certain basics that should be established. Indeed, unemployment rate in Nigeria is about 23. 10 per cent (Q3 2018, an all-time high between 2006 and 2018. Youth unemployment according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is even higher. Inflation rate is about 12%. Food inflation is higher at 13.5%. Recently, the Central Bank of Nigeria reduced Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 13.5%, down by 50 basis points from 14%. Nigeria’s GDP growth is 1.8%.  Compared to statistics from other parts of the world, these Nigerian statistics paint a gloomy picture. Unemployment rate in India, for example, is 6.1%, Canada (5.8%), Australia (4.9%), United Kingdom (3.9%), Germany (3.1%), Ghana (2%), Cote d’Ivoire (2.6%), Saudi Arabia (12.7%) etc. 

There is also no doubt that the Nigerian economy has gone through major contractions in the last five years. The sharp drop in the spot price of oil depleted the country’s reserves, created a foreign exchange crisis  and soon resulted in recession. In 2016, Nigeria faced the consequences of a negative growth of up to 2.3 %; in 2017, inflation was as high as 18%. In September 2018, the Economic Intelligence Unit of The Economist Magazine and the HSBC Research Unit predicted a gloomy economic prospect for Nigeria in 2019 and also jumped into the troubled waters of analyzing Nigerian politics, with predictions about the likely outcome of the 2019 Presidential election in Nigeria. Both the ruling party in Nigeria – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Nigerian government kicked. They told the “experts” to keep their opinions to themselves.     

The EIU/HSBC in retrospect got the political analysis wrong (PDP lost the 2019 Presidential election, APC won) but the economic projections remain relevant and instructive. The Steve Hanke Misery Index Report may have been influenced by the EIU report. Rather than dismiss it however, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Presidency (Hanke insists the message is so straightforward even a busy President can follow it) should study the report and attend to the messages about economic growth and the careful management of certain indicators to deliver prosperity to the people. Nigeria’s palace economists may quarrel over the statistics and the methodology, but not the common sense. 

But is Hanke’s description of Nigeria as the 6^thmost miserable country in the world accurate? Even if the Nigerian economy has not “virtually collapsed”, can misery be affirmed strictly on the basis of unemployment rate, inflation rate and lending rates? Does poverty necessarily translate into misery? Is the correlation absolutely given?  Nigeria ranks low in this 2019 Misery Index, just as it ranks low on the Human Poverty Index and the Human Development Index – these are challenges for governance and leadership. But does all that mean that Nigerians are miserable? The word misery connotes unhappiness, distress, wretchedness, hardship, suffering, affliction, anguish, sadness, sorrow, melancholy. 

I think there are gaps in the Hanke Misery Index in terms of the parameters adopted; perhaps a more holistc assessment of the connection between economic growth and a people’s response as individuals and communities may have shown that economic prosperity and growth do not necessarily guarantee a people’s happiness. There may well be more misery in all the developed countries of Central Europe taken together than may be in Kenya or Cape Verde. 

There are perhaps certain anthropological factors, a certain kind of neuroscience that accounts for a people’s happiness rather than cold macro-economic statistics. In 2011, Nigeria was classified as the happiest place on earth in a Gallup Poll and its people as the most optimistic. This was within the context of widespread underdevelopment, and all forms of social sector crisis. Nigeria’s status as a happy country was again confirmed in a World Values Survey in 2014. It is noteworthy however that in 2018, Nigeria was listed as the 91^sthappiest country in the world, and the 5th happiest country in Africa in the World Happiness Report. OBv iously so much happened negatively in Nigeria between 2014 and 2018. But the sum indication is that as at 2018, Nigerians were adjudged happier than they were between 2014 and 2016.

How then can we suddenly become the sixth most miserable country in the world a year later? The difference is who is looking at what. The UN 2019 Happiness Report, for example, focusses on the human being and community, on relationships, or the neuro-science and the anthropology of happiness, rather than economic indicators. The World Happiness Report is more reflective of the Nigerian situation in my view than the Misery Index. We may have moved from being the happiest people on earth to the 91^stin the world, a reflection of the existential crisis that Nigeria faces, but the word misery does not quite capture the people’s true essence.

My point is as follows: the measurement of happiness or its antonym, misery is perhaps more subjective and experiential than academic and statistical. Culture and context should matter. Nigeria has been described as one of the poorest countries in the world. The country faces a problem of low level insurgency in the North East. Corruption is rife. Reports of all shades of violence are common place. The country’s wealth is concentrated in a few hands. Steady economic growth is a challenge. But we the people are not in misery. There may have been a slight increase in cases of suicide and depression in the country since 2015, but generally Nigerians are a resilient lot. 

The average Nigerian is imbued with a fighting spirit.  If people in other countries go through what Nigerians have gone through and are still going through, such countries would have imploded. But Nigeria has not collapsed because the people’s fighting spirit is unique. In the midst of risks and vulnerability to poverty due to economic mismanagement by Nigeria’s leaders, the average Nigerian continues to forge ahead. These are people who don’t give up easily. They believe that tomorrow will be better. When they are faced with election rigging, voter intimidation, outright theft of public resources, these are people who are likely to say: is it not four years? “Let them come and do what they want to do and go away.”  When people get killed and are abandoned by the roadside, you’d be surprised that with the corpses lying in open spaces, some Nigerians can just pull seats together and begin to have a drink, a few metres away from a decaying body. 

There is no weekend when there is no celebratory feast in a Nigerian community: flashy attires, expensive cars, exotic drinks, musicians waxing lyrical, and the men and women dancing away with no care in the world. I do not know any other country in the world where the parties and celebrations are as elaborate as the parties we throw in Nigeria. The Misery Index is talking about high unemployment rates in Nigeria. This is true but the people are so resilient, they manage to get by. They have learnt to move beyond their governments. Nigeria is the biggest market in Africa. Those who cannot get formal jobs find other things to do. 

Come to Lagos, Dr. Hanke. Some of the young ladies you would see on the streets of Lagos and on Nigerian Instagram are from very poor backgrounds and they have no extra-ordinary skills, but you are likely to see them driving expensive cars, wearing bespoke clothes, the type that Kim Kardashian cannot even afford. This is the “small girl, big God” generation that puts a lie to all that talk about misery in Nigeria.  Besides, thuggery and cultism are considered professions in Nigeria, and regarded as more profitable and influential than medicine, law or engineering. Thugs and cultists are patronized by political leaders and they are well-paid for their efforts, particularly during election seasons.  

It is only in Nigeria I guess, that a security guard, earning less than a $100 a month will have three wives and 10 children while his own employer will be struggling to maintain a family of four. It is also in Nigeria that you will find a civil servant having five wives and two concubines, even when he has not been paid a salary for 24 months. Misery? Professor Steve Hanke is an applied economist. He may not have visited some of the countries covered by his study, but in the case of Nigeria, he should not rely on textbook statistics. Unemployment rate, lending rate, inflation rate, GDP per capita may make sense to the economists, but those things sound like voodoo to the average Nigerian. 

The people live in a zone that is beyond theory. The average Nigerian is not intimidated by the gap between the very rich and the very poor, for him or her, there is a religious, rather, a spiritual side to this thing called poverty or inequality. The Nigerian is told by the large population of prosperity evangelists in the country – Muslim, Christian, and animist - that he or she can become rich overnight. In Nigeria, you can see a man as poor as a church rat in January and by December he has a mansion in his village, attended to by a retinue of hangers-on, all very happy, and he too has become an employer of labour and he is likely to pay salaries more regularly than government! Nigeria is the ultimate headquarters of trade-offs; not even Arthur M. Okun could have imagined that. The Nigerian character and attitude both raise questions about the true nature of work, employment, economic growth, or the meaning of misery beyond the theories and “forecasts”. The other question is: what is the integrity of the applied data?