OTHERS' VIEWS

OTHERS' VIEWS

A friend of mine, while speaking about the competitiveness of the Nigerian claimed that a fetus in the tummy, while listening to the gist of his mother with others about the hardship outside in a country of over two hundred million must hit the ground running at birth. Unlike the situation in other African countries, for the Nigerian, “there is hurry in Africa”. Everything must be done kia kia as if delay is dangerous. A form of an endless rat race!

The tons of problems in terms of lack of infrastructure on about everything and especially health, as well as the constant chasing of simple things of life all take their toll on the Nigerian. Little wonder that the average lifespan of a Nigerian male as estimated in 2020 is 54 while that of the female is 56 years. This gives an average lifespan for the Nigerian as 55. The African average lifespan in 2024, is reported to be 64.38 years. Nigeria and Lesotho, reportedly have the lowest lifespan on the African continent. So, to live up to 90 in a country with the average lifespan of a male human being less than 60 years is a salutary fit.

It is sad that Dr. Onaolapo Ṣolẹyẹ has left us as by way of death. I can no longer seek clarifications on so many issues. Death is the unavoidable reality that will mark the end of even the best amongst us. The Yoruba often celebrate the lives of persons like Baba Ṣolẹyẹ who left after 90 years. Beyond celebrating the life of Baba Soleye, it is necessary to deliberately indemnify the life and legacies of Baba Soleye. But it's very painful for me that such a nice soul is no more. Writing this tribute brought a mix of feelings that I had to courageously subdue by taking some solace in the nature of the life lived by Baba Soleye. I will be unjust to posterity not to say a few things about my numerous lived experiences with Baba.

Dr. Ṣolẹyẹ came on a scholarly resident visit to the University of California, Los Angeles in about 1979/1980, when I was a graduate student there. By fate and the script of the pre-destined as some would say, we bumped into each other and hit it off. He did not allow the 21 years with which he was older than I to stand in the way of a very healthy relationship. I recall events surrounding our numerous weekends spent together till he left as if we were age mates. We partied and socialized with other Africans. Baba took a lot of time to share elderly knowledge and guidance with me and subsequently introduced me to late Prof. Oyelẹyẹ Oyediran, and General Oluṣẹgun Ọbasanjọ.

Our camaraderie continued on my return home. I depended on him for life guidance. I almost nearly copiously took after his lifestyle, as I was very convinced of his personality. For instance, on a very mundane issue, that had a tie with strong moral values, I chose to wear the cheapest dress as he did. Initially, my wife did not like my appearing in my “Ankara danshiki” however great the event was considered to be. I asked Dr. Ṣolẹyẹ how one handles a situation like I was facing. He readily told me how he handled his: he told his wife to use the front door to an event and he would use the back door, if she was ashamed of his dressing. It ended the dialogue for them and I adopted the same.

With our seeming “Father-Son” level of relationship, I did not need to tell him nor sought his permission to make him an Executor of my first Will (when I had only books and a car to bequeath) in 1988 when people scared me on pursuing the landmark case I took on behalf of my daughter with respect to the federal character clause in our 1979 Constitution. I knew he would guide my family aright if I was indeed murdered.

In spite of being a bosom friend of General Ọbasanjọ who had saddled us with the federal character clause that his Supreme Military Council left in tact, Baba Ṣolẹyẹ encouraged me. He blessed and supported my move. I was asked by some to write my Will as it was predicted that the IBB Government would bump me off the face of the earth. I cannot recall how much time he spent guiding me on many issues of life, including the bureaucratic processes to acquire a plot of land at Igbẹba in Ijẹbu-Ode.

He taught Sociology at the University of Ibadan and nurtured so many in senior positions in today’s Nigeria. He retired as an Associate Professor. However, he was better known years ago for the roles he played in shaping Ogun State at the beginning as Commissioner for Finance and Industry. He later served the nation as the Minister of Finance without the accoutrements that went with that office and without enriching himself, family and friends.

The night before he was sworn into office in 1984 as Buhari/Idiagbon administration’s Federal Minister of Finance, he chose to have dinner with my family at my University of Lagos accommodation at Oguntọna Crescent, Gbagada, (just as we used to do at the Married Students Housing on weekends at UCLA). While at UCLA, many a time, he slept in Yinka, my three-year-old daughter’s room on weekends before I drove him back to his apartment to prepare for the new week.

Having a Sociologist as Minister of Finance, meant sensitivities for people as opposed to “the invisible hand of market forces”, that is an article of faith for Economists. When Buhari/Idiagbon got into office, the Nigerian naira had moved downward from one naira fetching one dollar, eighty-two cents to one naira fetching one dollar fifty cents. Chief Ọbafemi Awolọwọ (Awo) had warned about the Nigerian economy during the first term of President Shagari that the ship of state was drifting towards a rock and would sink. But Prof. Emmanuel Edozien, a professor of economics at the University of Ibadan, a close friend of General Ọbasanjọ and Special Adviser to President Shagari on the economy had shut Awo up and argued that there was nothing wrong with the ship of state as the economy was sound. The 1983 presidential elections held and President Shagari was said to have won with a landslide by Prof. Walter Ofonagoro of the National Party of Nigeria. Awo chose not to approach the courts as he had done in the past. He instructed his followers not to go in the streets. A few months after being sworn into a second term and with huge dissatisfaction, President Shagari was overthrown by General Muhammadu Buhari, supported by his Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters, Brigadier Tunde Idiagbon on December 31, 1983.

With the IMF claim that the naira was overvalued, the Buhari/Idiagbon administration, supported by Dr. Soleye as Minister of Finance resisted the devaluation being pushed on Nigeria to accept one naira is equal to one dollar. They drastically reduced Nigeria’s imports. In 1984, they aimed to reduce the quantity of naira in circulation by wiping out the resources that politicians had stolen and hidden in their houses by redesigning the naira within two weeks, and fixed a maximum amount that could be changed without explanation. Air/sea/land borders were closed during the naira swap process.

However, my late friend Dr. Onukaba Adinoyi Ojo, an investigative journalist got wind of the ferrying into Nigeria, of 53 suitcases that were suspected to be old naira notes from Saudi Arabia (the naira was once used internationally), for the purposes of swapping the huge quantity. Major Mustapha Jokolo, as he then was and ADC to Major-General Buhari had reportedly supervised the ferrying of the suitcases of an Emir without customs check. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar who was at the airport as a senior customs official confirmed to Dr. Ojo that indeed 53 suitcases came in unchecked and he was to be fired but Dr. Ọnaọlapọ Ṣolẹyẹ, as the supervising-Minister for our customs, on the basis of fairness and justice resisted the firing of Atiku for being truthful. On my wanting to know what really happened, Dr. Soleye, as a friend, told me that the 53 suitcases were eventually checked and that they did not contain naira notes and that they were the personal effects of an Emir who was reportedly related to Major Jokolo.

But the currency redesign did not change the value of the naira as demanded by the IMF. It became difficult to sell our crude oil in exchange for dollars. How I wish I could call Dr. Ṣolẹyẹ now to clarify why our oil was not exchanging for dollars, and if the West boycotted our main export product for not following the dictates of the IMF. We had to resort to trade by barter. The world was not like today with so many alternatives with respective points of sale and sources of supplies of goods and services. There were China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia etc., but without competing products to sell like today. The idea of trading in crude oil in any currency other than the American dollar was unthinkable given the US power over the world. It was harrowing to be trading by barter. The word “essenco” joined the Nigerian lexicon. It was coined from two words: essential commodities, which were goods we had been socialized into but now unable to buy from the West. The atmosphere was ripe for another coup against a set of patriots that dared to think differently.

In came General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) after a coup that was externally driven but reportedly funded by Dr. Soleye’s very close friend from their Baptist Boy’s High School days who constantly called Baba Ṣolẹyẹ: Senior, MKO Abiola. I do not belong in the intelligence world and cannot confirm this account. But IBB gave us a number of legacies like building the Third Mainland Bridge and the city of Abuja that had been started by the Murtala/Obasanjo administration but received a flip when Gideon Orka tried to kill IBB in a counter-coup but failed and IBB ran to Abuja and the profligacy of consumption as opposed to production worsened. Two other IBB legacies were the exponential growth in corruption as he built Abuja and started carving out portions of the ocean as oil blocs to family, friends and allies. He became the grandfather of corruption. He also did the external biddings when he introduced the steady devaluation of the naira against the wish and will of Nigerians when he introduced the second-tier foreign exchange market (SFEM) that fueled what is now known as foreign exchange round-tripping. Forty years later, the budding industrialization and manufacturing we were promised are yet to materialize as the naira has continued to seek its level. Driving bye the carcasses of Odutola Industries Limited at Ijebu-Ode, as I did on March 1, 2024 could make any patriot cry. Many of such failed industrial ventures are all over Nigeria as bankers and Aboki money changers fed fat outsmarting all of us on currency round-tripping without production. Authority stealing that Fela Anikulapo Kuti taught us about has reigned supreme in our land since IBB.

I am very proud of Dr. Onaolapo Soleye, and everything he represented. I wish I could wake him up and make him reminisce on what we are going through today in the hands of the United Thieves of Nigeria (UTN). We have lost a quintessential role model on probity. A patriot that fiercely resisted selling us cheap for personal gains. A just human being who did not join the selling of national patrimony to family and friends alike. A very humble and fiercely loyal man to friendship, to myself, Oyelẹyẹ Oyediran and Oluṣẹgun Ọbasanjọ. He was an unassuming successful Nigerian who lived a simple life of integrity and great character. He was a man that the Yoruba would readily designate as an Ọmọluabi.

 

Babafemi A. Badejo, author of a best-seller on politics in Kenya, was a former Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Somalia, and currently a Legal Practitioner and Professor of Political Science & International Relations, Chrisland University, Abeokuta. Nigeria.

“Many people sold their boys and girls for a little rice…Hunger stalked us…People of all ages began to die….Everyone had to live with half-empty stomachs …People started looting, searching for food” -Bijoykrishna, survivor of the Bengal famine in 1943 (BBC, February 23, 2023)

The old man talking is reported to be 102 years old and one of the few survivors of the famine which killed millions in Bengal while World War II raged on around them. The savagery of the war and extremely bad weather resulted in horrible harvests. Suddenly, parents were “eating” their kids. Or what do you call selling your children to buy food? It happened in Bengal in 1943; it can happen anywhere – including Nigeria.

 

We are aware that some parents in Nigeria have been selling their children; heartless people run baby factories or phony orphanages as regular means of employment. It might not have reached the alarming proportions experienced in Bengal in the last century. But, the truth is – some adult Nigerians are already eating children.  That preamble is, however, meant to draw the readers’ attention to the dangers we face as a nation with regard to food and famine.

 

To be candid, government at all levels is not being honest with us. Irrespective of which political party is in power at federal and state levels, their reactions to the looming famine is, frankly speaking, shocking. Millions of Nigerian lives are at stake.  Perhaps it is only a coincidence that the FG, which encouraged herdsmen and bandits to drive millions of farmers off the field, was headed by Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC – whose symbol is the broom.

Present and future historians, writing about how we ended up in this terrible situation, in which most Nigerians now live with half-empty stomachs, must lay the blame squarely on the door step of Buhari and the APC National Secretariat. Buhari started the demolition job on our farms; and none of the members called him out. One official actually had the effrontery to go on television to offer fellow Nigerians the Devil’s alternative – your land or your life. That was the audacity of infamy which has landed us where we are with regard to food production. No nation can live with lunacy for eight years without finally living on the bread of sorrow. We are now going to start dying like flies, swatted by a broom!!!

FORGET THE LIES ABOUT FOOD PALLIATIVES

  “Every government is run by liars; and nothing they say should be believed” – I F Stone

Can anyone remember how many tonnes of palliatives were promised Nigerians in September last year? And do you remember that Governor Soludo, APGA, speaking on behalf of the FG and State Governors, announced that N5 billion would be given to each state? On account of a conspiracy of silence, Nigerians were not informed that only N2 billion was actually delivered and not all the grains either. That should tell you the sort of leaders we are dealing with – they cannot be trusted to keep their words. That is why they have more Commissioners of Information and Special Advisers (Media) than the Premiers of East, North and West had during the First Republic. They are not appointed to shed light on issues but to confuse Nigerians. Here is an example.

The Minister of Information and Culture, Mohammed Idris, in mid-February this year, announced that President Tinubu had “ordered 102,000 metric tonnes of grains to be released from the National Reserves”. A week after, in my Monday article, titled FG AND THE 102,000 tonnes food swindle, I traced several promises previously made by this government. None of them had been fully redeemed. Given my knowledge about the National Food Reserves, I concluded that article by stating: “I doubt if the FG has 102,000 tonnes of food in its reserves.”

On Thursday, February 22, 2023, Mr Idris, in a manner reminding us of George Orwell’s ANIMAL FARM, changed the narrative. This time we were told: “The first one is that the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has been directed to release  about  (underlying mine) 42,000 MT of maize, millet, garri and other commodities in their strategic reserves so that these items will be made available to Nigerians; 42,000MT immediately.”    The careful reader cannot fail to observe how 102,000MT, pledged two weeks earlier, shrank to 42,000MT to be released suddenly. What happened to the remaining 60,000MT of food stuff promised earlier?

The story has changed on those too. According to the latest announcement from Idris, which might not be the last, “we have held meetings with the Rice Millers Association of Nigeria (RIMAN), those who are responsible for this rice, and we have asked them to open up their stores…They have told us that they can guarantee about 60,000 tonnes of rice. They will make that available to Nigerians…” Again, a discernible reader can easily arrive at three obvious conclusions. One, the FG did not have 102,000MT of grains in its reserves when the first announcement was made. Two, the government will even have to struggle to provide the about 42,000MT. Three, the 60,000MT of rice is uncertain of delivery; for the simple reason that there is no guarantee from RIMAN to deliver 60,000MT of rice.

 

Instead of the deliberate attempt by the FG to deceive Nigerians, RIMAN’s position on the matter is quite clear. According to the RIMAN President: “No, no, no, we don’t have enough paddy in this country. Farmers lack enough paddy to sell. A lot of farmers have withdrawn services on the farms due to insecurity. This is in addition to the effects of fuel subsidy removal.” Obviously, Mr Idris is once again spreading falsehood in order to buy time for the FG. I know who is lying on this issue because I spent years in the rice sector and some of my friends are still in it. They tell me the truth because I advise them on investing – when they make profits.

That, unfortunately, takes us to the heart of the matter. Nigerians are now dying like flies swatted by a broom; and most of the FG’s utterances have proved to be untrue. How on earth can Tinubu plead for more time when his Ministers are busy telling us lies? To be candid, few will believe him – even if elder statesmen like Gowon plead for him. The people want the truth – no matter how bad. Only faith in their leaders or tyranny can make the people in a country endure years of great hardship as in China and India.

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE ALREADY HERE

 “Death is here and death is there/Death is busy everywhere…”  –  Percy Byshe Shelley

People have always died, everyday, every hour, every minute and every second. Death by itself is not new. At almost 80, I am in sudden death period; so is everybody over 70 in Nigeria, where life expectancy is still about 52. So what makes death so special now? It is the spike in death rates. In about 70 years, since I first became aware of the consequences of death, in no single year was it brought to my attention that up to four people known to me died in one month. The rise in death rate first attracted my attention in December last year when seven people were reported to have died. In January, the figure rose to nine. There was acceleration in February. Today, February 25, 2023, as this article is being written, the number stands at thirteen. Four of my CLUB members and a close cousin have passed on in less than six weeks.

  So, it was time to investigate – at the mortuary, at the cemeteries and talking to casket sellers. With four friends as undertakers or casket sellers, it was easy to establish that, for them, business is booming like never before. The only problem they have is with the low profile approach people now take to burials. Most families no longer buy expensive caskets. Times are hard.

 

A few of the recently departed souls were confronted with choosing between buying life-saving drugs or eating. There were no funds for the two. They opted for food. At least two told me that before leaving us to our self-inflicted problems of food, drugs and other scarcities and the inflation resulting from too much demand chasing insufficient supply.

The investigations confirmed my intuition. There has been a noticeable rise in burials in all the cemeteries in Lagos – involving all ages from babies a few days old to the aged. A twenty three years old attendant told me, “We have never buried so many people in a month as we are doing now. A pathologist said most of those they open up to find cause of death have next to nothing in their stomachs. So, hunger must have contributed to their demise.”

That is the truth we face; and which governments – FG, states and even local governments must face. Back to the land is no longer a slogan. It is the only way we can save Nigerians from dying like flies swatted by a broom.

FUND ME TO WRITE THE TRUTH ABOUT BUHARI

Wherever God erects a house of prayer;  the Devil always builds a Chapel there…” – Daniel Defoe, 1661-1731.

One Pastor from the Devil’s Chapel went to work for Buhari for eight years. While in residence at the Rock, which we have been told was overrun by demons by a previous lodger, the Pastor, on live TV, supported the slaughter of thousands of farmers who refused to surrender their land to herdsmen. Now he has joined others who inhabited the dungeon to write books about Buhari’s “achievements”.

 

In their books, you will not read about how herdsmen militia, about 400,000 armed assassins, was created to capture Nigeria. They are everywhere in Nigeria today — killing, kidnapping, raping and making farming impossible. Their Life Patron lives in peace in Daura. About 380,000 Nigerians have paid with their lives for this particular “achievement”. But, Pastor won’t tell you the truth about herdsmen genocide.  I will. I started my own book two years ago; funding it myself. Now, I am stuck. Inflation and exchange rate threaten publication of the truth about Buhari. I need your help to finish the job.

Their book, packed full of lies, is advertised for N200,000. I can deliver the truth for N20,000 or less. Can you help? Please get in touch.

Reuben Abati (“Monumental”) memorably characterises such moment as “when the phone stops ringing”. It is the ultimate nightmare of the public intellectual or just any member of the tribe at the point of — or shortly before — evacuating public office.

It is not only about the imminent forfeiture of privileges and advantage, but also the anxiety about accountability before a national jury.

For the columnist, questions are bound to be asked about just how much he practised what he had preached so magisterially before assuming public office. Observable conduct — by way of deeds or words during the stated public engagement — will be weighed against the corpus of values earlier trumpeted from the outside.

For this purpose, public intellectuals will include others involved in the knowledge economy like academics and think-tank experts, mediating between public authorities and the society.

Segun Ayanbolu could, by any stretch, not be said to have suffered any difficulty in the referenced transition between theory and praxis, despite having been exposed to the corrosive toxin of partisan politics as the Chief Press Secretary to then Governor Bola Tinubu at a very challenging moment in Lagos.

Upon returning to the media in 2008, it was clear that the critical flavor of his punditry had not diminished, which is perhaps a testimony to the character and integrity he demonstrated for the nine years he sojourned at Alausa.

Again, such seamless adaptability — this instinctive capacity for role changes without loss of identity — would seem very much in evidence in his choice to sneak onto the “sixth floor” (the sexagenarian club) recently without as much a stir or noise.

On account of his remarkable life and sterling accomplishments in journalism, not a few friends had, at the approach of the Diamond milestone, contemplated the idea of staging a commemorative shindig. But once he got wind of the plot, Ayanbolu frantically pleaded to be spared the “stress” of an “Owambe”, moreso not when most Nigerians are facing a difficult time.

Were things “normal”, self-effacing Ayobolu would probably still have found another excuse not to have a loud celebration. As attested by Tunde Olusunle in an earlier tribute last year entitled, “Segun Ayobolu: Grit, Quality, Versatility on Diamond Eve”:
“For all his staggering attributes as a very formidable scholar, a distinctly rigorous inquisitor, a sound and profound political scientist, an inimitable reporter, an engaging writer, a perspicacious editor, he savours his reticence and unobtrusive carriage.

“In a world where dunderheads, impostors and wannabes hug the klieg lights, posturing as modern-day standard-bearers, stars and men of letters, coveting conferments and adulation, he cherishes his quiet.

“He prefers to immerse himself in his study, lapping up multidisciplinary knowledge, further enriching his subsisting, even overflowing intellectual capital. His elected choices to remain ‘backstage’ in a manner of speaking, receives authentication from his minimal photographic prominence, even on the internet. And we are talking about a colossus in his own right.”

That is the essential Segun Ayobulu — one with social conscience.

In a more recent tribute on Ayobolu’s 60th birthday, President Tinubu wrote: “Segun has remained one of my steadfast associates and loyalists for many years. He served me with complete dedication and loyalty as my Chief Press Secretary when I was Governor of Lagos State. He has not failed to offer his service and intellect to us in many other areas since we left office. He remains a committed member of our progressive family.”

Overall, as anyone who has followed his writings in over three decades will readily attest, Ayanbolu’s journalism remains largely a relentless crusade for progressive values, never shy to advertise a fanatical devotion to Awoism.

As CPS to Tinubu between 1999 and 2007, he never failed to situate his many polemical skirmishes against political opponents of his boss within the broader context of never-ending progressive struggle against reactionary forces in nation space.

Of course, there can be no easy winner or loser in such ideological contestation. While recognising that the public engagement could indeed be tricky, Patrick Baert and Josh Booth, however argue that the intellectual has to reconcile themselves with some fundamental tensions and contradictions around four axes namely, “hierarchy versus equality, generality versus expertise, passion versus distance, and the individual versus the collective.”

With particular reference to the political realm, Eunice Goes, an associate professor at Richmond University in the U.K, is a bit more exact. In an intervention in defence of one-time Labour Party’s poster boy, Ed Miliband, following attack by the conservative press, she outlines the obligations of the intellectual as helping “politicians to make sense of the world.

“They offer cause-effect explanations of political and economic phenomena; they offer diagnosis and occasional prescriptions to policy puzzles. At times of great political disruption, when old certainties about how the world works are questioned, this role is particularly important.”

Doubtless, learning matters. It should however be added that learning is nothing without character, as Mahatma Gandhi forever warns. Of course, the truest test of character occurs not at the moment of comfort or convenience. Rather, it comes at a crossroads, at that perilous hour of temptation. Ayobolu’s was tested with Tinubu’s exit in 2007 and the change of guards thereafter at Alausa. He was among the few “tested hands” retained by the Fashola administration to help “stabilize” the system. The climate looked conducive for him to, in fact, be more consequential in the new order.

Though promoted as a Special Adviser, he would soon cause a major stir by resigning voluntarily “on principle”, and went back to his first love — journalism.
Indeed, as months began to roll by for the new administration at Alausa, it was clear Ayobolu was no longer finding fulfillment. In his shoes, many would have easily tagged along, for survival.

Many would have casually forsworn old loyalties or traded their convictions for new convenient principles without scruples, if only to secure continued flow of bread and butter. True, addiction to the comforts of the moment can be numbing for such slaves to office. But in not succumbing to temptations then, Ayobolu was probably reminded of Awo’s timeless admonition never “to get addicted to things you cannot afford as private citizen while in public office.”

Here is wishing Ayobolu, the one with quick smile, happy diamond jubilee.

I grew up on a diet of welfarism as espoused by the great manager of men and resources, Obafemi Awolowo, first Premier of the then Western Region of Nigeria. It is to that great man that many of us who later went on to play leadership roles in various aspects of our professional and national lives, owe our worldview— especially our conceptualisation of the essence of governance and leadership.

 

Awolowo insisted that a government derived its legitimacy from being able to protect and advance the cause of its people. Thus, he democratised the playing field by ensuring that everyone had access to primary education. His famous reaction to the subject was, “I want free access to education for all. I do not want the children of my drivers to be drivers to my children, neither do I want the children of my cooks to be cooks to my children.”

Leadership

Awolowo set a high store by leadership. To him, it was nothing less than a sacred trust. If political leaders led by example, he argued, the people would follow suit: “Those of us placed in a position of leadership must be prepared to grasp the nettle if we unite in doing so, and if, in addition, we set a worthy example in probity, unselfishness, and self-sacrifice, the people will follow, all too readily, in our footsteps.”

It was under that general philosophical base of equal opportunities for all that the government of the Western Region operated under the philosopher-politician, Awolowo. Had Providence inserted the man in the affairs of his Yoruba race during the Oyo Empire days many centuries before his premiership, historians argue, he would have wound up among the many Yoruba gods celebrated today.

 

At the Summit of the Organisation of African Unity, OAU in Kinshasa in 1967 where he represented Nigeria, Awolowo declared: “Today, Africa is a continent of COMPETING BEGGAR-NATIONS. We vie with one another for favours from our former colonial masters… Unless a beggar resolutely shakes off, and irrevocably turns his back on his begging habit, he will forever remain a beggar. For, the more he begs, the more he develops the beggar characteristics of lack of initiative, courage, drive and self-reliance.”

 

That call for Africans to lift themselves up by their bootstraps is today being championed on the continental scale by institutions such as the African Development Bank led by Nigeria’s Dr Akinwumi Adesina. Since assumption of office as President of the bank after a stint as Nigeria’s Minister of Agriculture, Adesina has pursued a development policy based on five development priorities creatively code-named the High-5s.

His

Having assumed office on September 1, 2015 as the eighth elected President of the African Development Bank Group, Adesina vigorously encouraged African countries to buy into the five cardinal programmes of the bank namely: (1) Light up and Power Africa; (2) Feed Africa; (3) Industrialise Africa; (4) Integrate Africa; and (5) Improve the Quality of Life for the People of Africa.

Africa has never remained the same since the rolling out of the High-5s. All over the continent, there is ample evidence that a forward-looking development partner is at work, transforming the landscape and helping to create new capacities thereby making Africa a more attractive land of promise and sustainable viability than ever before. Overall, AfDB’s impact has been panoramic as evidenced by its 6,338 projects embarked upon all over Africa since 1967.

Considering that he was born in Awolowo’s Western Region of Nigeria, I have no doubt that the philosophical underpinnings of Dr Adesina’s commitment to uplifting the continent and making Africans stand tall in the comity of nations, is partially inspired by his experience growing up under the very inspiring premiership of the late sage of the region.

Since Awo’s transition in 1987, his name and ideas have remained in public discourse, proving that those who live in the service of humanity will never die. The Foundation established in his honour is an independent, non-profit, non-political, non-religious, non-sectarian research institute committed to the promotion of a socially edifying interaction between policy and scholarship. The organisation prides itself as being dedicated to the principles of public welfare, responsible, free enterprise, social democracy, a federal and republican Nigeria, an economically self-reliant Africa- and a stable and equitable global system

 

So far, the Obafemi Awolowo Foundation has lived up to its billing, especially in the weight of personages that have won its now coveted Leadership Prize. The prize is given in recognition for outstanding performance in the areas of leadership and good governance. Candidates are assessed on the parameters of integrity, credibility, discipline, selflessness, visionary leadership, accountability, tenacity of purpose, among other qualities. The selection committee is chaired by the venerable Chief Emeka Anyaoku, former Secretary-General of the Commonwealth.

Awo Prize

Adesina is the fourth recipient of the prestigious honour, the first three honourees being Nobel Laureate Prof Wole Soyinka (2012), former President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa (2014), and lawyer-educationist Chief Afe Babalola (2018). Adesina will be formally presented the 2024 Leadership Prize at a ceremony in Lagos on March 6, Awo’s 115th birthday, in the presence of Heads of state and government, top diplomats, captains of industry, development partners and leaders in academia and the various professions. General Gowon will chair the occasion.

How marvellous to contemplate the intricate web of life: Soyinka, an admirer of Awolowo and world acclaimed intellectual and humanist who was our teacher at the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University, OAU) when Adesina was a student; factor into the mix the freedom fighter Thabo Mbeki from whom student leaders used to collect revolutionary anti-apartheid posters at the ANC offices in Obalende, Lagos, in the 70s — and who went on to become the President of South Africa after the legendary Nelson Mandela; and then add Afe Babalola, brilliant lawyer and counsel to Irikefe Tribunal in the heady days of the 2.8 billion oil money saga when this writer faced the tribunal as a witness from Great Ife — and has since made a bigger name as an educationist and community leader… and it  would be clear that excellence defines the path of the past recipients. Adesina is in good company.

Awo would have been proud that such a forward-looking beneficiary of his free education policy in the old Western Region is now a continental champion and global player in matters of good governance and economic development.

Endorsements

Like honey to nectar, Adesina has been attracting endorsements galore. Former Nigerian President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who was one of several world leaders who nominated Adesina, said: “He epitomises and combines qualities of extraordinary leadership that are often rare to find: great visionary, incredible courage, the ability to take on huge and difficult challenges, extraordinary dedication and commitment to deliver programmes and policies that transform the lives of millions of people”.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair also praised Adesina’s leadership: “His contributions to the African continent and global leadership have been exceptional. Under his leadership the African Development Bank has delivered bold interventions to address some of the greatest challenges of our time,”.

A double-barrelled tribute was jointly issued by Former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Global Center on Adaptation CEO, Prof. Dr Patrick Verkooijen: “We can think of no person more highly qualified or deserving of this prestigious award. Dr Adesina is forged in the same mould as Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a shining example of leadership.”

Having followed the trajectory of this worthy son of Africa from the 70s till now, I am proud to raise an elbow to Dr. Akinwumi Adedeji Adesina, Africa’s Mr. Optimist and recipient of the Obafemi Awolowo Prize for Leadership 2024.

African youths don’t have to look too far for a role model

When the story of Nigeria’s national football team, the Super Eagles, through history will be told, it will never be complete without the mention of a certain Jose Paseiro.

Without doubt, he will be listed amongst the national coaches that took the Super Eagles to the finals of the Africa Cup of Nations, but did not clinch it, yet he was rewarded more than any other coach in the history of Nigerian football.

 

Jose Paseiro is a 64-years old Portuguese coach recommended by the renowned Portuguese coach, Jose Mourinho, to the former president of the Nigeria Football Federation, Amaju Pinnick, on the eve of completing his tenure. His link to Mourinho was his biggest credential. He did not have any known pedigree in football to deserve to be engaged by one of the biggest teams in Africa, one with the enviable reputation of the Super Eagles. Paseiro got the job offered to him on a platter of wood. It was so cheap, he started work on a verbal contract. It was so ‘cheap’ that when his monthly wage was slashed half-way into his 2-year contract, he accepted and held on to the job that many consider a holiday since he was working from his base in Europe most of the time.

 

Paseiro did not disappoint those who questioned his credentials and why he was hired. For the period of almost two years that he spent as coach of the national team he hardly won any international matches, could not produce a good consistent team, did not impact domestic football in any way, stuck stubbornly to a goalkeeper that the entire country saw as not the best, and did not produce a single, exceptionally-gifted player. He took Nigerians through a frustrating period that left them without a shred of hope going to AFCON 2023 at the start of the year. That was his report card before the championship in Cote D’Ivoire.

Against the grain of all expectations the Super Eagles did well, even though they would not be remembered for any spectacular performances, or special moments during the championship. Their passage through the group matches, the round of 16 and up to the quarter-finals were ‘tales of the unexpected’. With a little bit of luck the team scraped through the matches with relative ease. By the time they arrived at the semi-final match, the players had become confident, were playing with much more ease and had succeeded in making Nigerians to have hope despite all the obvious technical flaws in the team and Paseiro’s bewildering technical manipulations during matches. Tactically, most of his substitutions of players made the team weaker not stronger. No one could decipher his tactical intentions. Obviously, he may not have had any.

The team had two Captains. One did not even kick a single ball throughout, and the other one became the leader that the team had lacked for some time, and played himself into reckoning as the Most Valuable Player of the championship!

In the midfield, the Super Eagles did not have a single truly outstanding player. The team’s talisman, Africa’s newly minted Best Player, failed to ignite any fire, scoring only a single goal in 6 matches. Fans waited throughout the championship for a ‘souvenir’ from him, a memento to take away, a moment of a great solo performance. It never came in all the 6 matches!

At the final match, the team was dismantled by Paseiro’s lack of tactical depth as well as the players’ capitulation to the pressure of the electricity in the air, an atmosphere that would weaken any faint hearts as it did the Super Eagles.

The tactics adopted unchangingly by the Nigerian team was simple, elementary but effective until the final match. He did not have a second strategy. It was the same tactics that we learnt 45 years ago, in 1979, during the 3 months training of the Green Eagles in Brazil.

A defensive funnel strategy that requires every player to fall back in the shape of a funnel into their own half of the field as soon as the team loses possession of the ball. They will then mark the spaces and not the men, always outnumbering the opposing players in Nigeria’s goal area, making it difficult for them to create goal-scoring chances – typical Jose Mourinho tactics. That’s why the Nigerian defense was difficult to break down most of the time.

 

Jose Paseiro seemed contented with achieving his personal goal of a semi-final place in AFCON. In 2024, such a level of ambition is pedestrian, totally unacceptable because it is not justified by the humongous wage he earns at a time when the country as a whole is going through excruciatingly difficult times and the country is poor.

Although, Paseiro is not connected to the sad tragedy that struck the country when at least 6 Nigerians died from the pressure generated during the semi-final match, the result of poor tactical changes during the match, pressures that would have been avoided if he knew what he was doing tactically.

The country has been very generous and grateful to him for the service he rendered specifically during AFCON 2023 which took us to the final match. He has been rewarded beyond whatever contributions he made to the country’s football. No other nation on earth would have given him a house, a land in Abuja, all the bonuses he collected, and a National Honour, for coming second in a championship. It must be the most generous gift in the history of football in the world. He should go, leave Nigerian football alone and enjoy the largesse.

The Nigeria that Nigerians envision after the present ‘crucible of fire’ that the country is passing through, is a country with the ultimate dream to emerge refined and ready to take its rightful place amongst the greatest countries on earth in many fields, including football.

The goals are lofty and, definitely, beyond what a foreigner or White man without solid grounding in football can achieve for Nigeria. Jose Paseiro does not have what it takes to take the Super Eagles to the next level.

 

The conversation now should be who should be given the responsibility to replace him amongst the NigerianCoaches that are more qualified than Jose Paseiro to handle the national team. There are a few waiting in the wings that deserve to be given the opportunity.

Gratitude

I wish to thank the following that made my AFCON 2023 Roadshow possible –

Vanguard Newspaper, Peculiar Ultimate Concerns Ltd, Goldberg Lager Beer, Airpeace Airlines, His Excellency, Senator Otunba Gbenga Daniel; His Excellency, Chief Bode George; Engineer Oluwatoyin Jokosenumi; Engineer Tony Ojesina; Lola Visser-Mabogunje and Remi Okuboyejo (both of them in Abidjan).

 

 

In  more  sensible places, President Tinubu’s job approval rating is so woeful that he should have been job hunting by now. In the United Kingdom, the opposition would have called for snap elections to test his popularity and probably throw him out of 10 Downing. In the United States, his party faithful would have been so embarrassed as to defect to the other side of the aisle with their votes. An engineered congressional revolt would either make him sit up or show him the exit door through an impeachment process. These consequences are very remote in Nigeria’s brand of democracy because we are Nigerians. 

In a classic twist of irony  and mass mockery, this presidency is riding on a political slogan –“Renewed Hope”- that literally laughs at the people and deprecates its very authors and vendors. Yet the mockery of that slogan lies at the very heart of our experience now. At a time when an administration is supposed to be renewing our hope in the future, we are experiencing the most drastic erosion of the basis of all hope. At a time when a government is supposed to be renewing our hope in government, the machinery of government has been turned into a cult of deceit. At a time when the political class is supposed to be reinforcing  our hope in the nation, the very foundations of our nationhood are being eroded by a combination of incompetence and self delusion. As a result, optimism, the very intangible glue that holds nations together with each democratic transition is in dire scarcity among most Nigerians. Show me a collection of Nigerians at home or abroad, in the city or in villages and the shortage of optimism becomes the standard greeting. It is a series of rhetorical  questions thrown by everybody at everybody: Where are we going? Where is this country headed? What is the agenda of this administration? What will happen to us? So, what next? 

Among Nigerians of nearly every class, tongue or faith,  it would be a hard search to find too many people who are still optimistic about anything, both about the prospects this government, their own personal lives or those of their businesses  or indeed the very future of the country. The youth are either petrified or are fleeing in droves to other lands. The elderly look back at better earlier days and sometimes break down in tears about promises broken, good times gone by and a sweetness turned into bitter bile. Paradise in peril! Traditional rulers have turned into prophets of doom or professional counselors on the dangers of allowing the population of the poor to overwhelm those who can still find the next meal. The other day, the Chief of Defense Staff had cause to caution fellow Nigerians against the growing habit of raining curses at our fatherland. When people are hungry, frustrated and angry, they can curse even their parents and even mouth abominable heresy!

On the sad faces of their parents, even our children confront the bleakness of the present and are speechless when it comes to asking about the future.  There is hardly anyone left to run to for reassurance. Irrespective of their position and the direction of their prayer compass, our clergy are getting tired of urging patience and perseverance among their faithful. A nation of inconsolable pessimists. That describes Tinubu’s Nigeria at the moment.

But democracy feeds on optimism. When a democratic outcome dims the prospects of optimism and blurs the horizon of hope, democracy itself becomes bedeviled and imperiled. When elections approach, the electorate is fed on one key diet by campaigning politicians: optimism and hope in a better future. People are told that the coming election is an opportunity to replace declining hope with a new optimism. Incumbency retreats, satisfied that it has done its best. Aspirants mount the rostrum to preach grounds for new optimism. It is optimism about the nation and about the prospective leadership of the nation. The campaign mobs echo the anthem of optimism and the democracy wagon rolls on.

In the dying days of the Buhari administration, the campaigns were fed by an unusual hunger for renewal and perhaps some optimism for a reprieve from the Buhari heist. Anything would be better than Buhari. After eight years of Mr. Buhari’s  virtual locust invasion in the name of governance, people expected and fervently hoped that whatever replaced the clueless Daura general would be better. 

No one dreamt of higher poverty figures. No one expected a rudderless economic environment. No one expected a higher rate of insecurity. No one expected the continuation of an economy bedeviled by debts and lacking enlightened management. Indeed, no one expected a nation literally overrun by enpowered killer herdsmen of doubtful nationality. Worse still, no one expected a totally indifferent national leadership inured to all feeling and compassion for the sufferings of the people. Of all things, no one expected that in our life time, so many Nigerians will become hungry and very angry as to die on queues for rice!

A prevalent note of some optimism pervaded the 2023 presidential campaigns. People looked at the three major political gladiators and concluded that even the worst of the bunch would be better than the incompetent Buhari. The mood of the electorate was to guide Mr. Buhari out of the China shop and hopefully fix the broken parts after his untidy exit. 

Democratic succession is a ceremony of optimism. People hail the winner and minimally hope that a better leadership will inspire confidence in a better government and a better nation. 

Afterall, Tinubu had run a tolerably progressive and effective government as Lagos state governor. He had improved revenue collection, patched the worst roads, summoned the courage to confront and reduce Lagos’ refuse heaps and generally deployed propaganda to market his efforts. His administration fed on a large diet of populist propaganda sustained by the political loyalty of ancient lineages and cells of vicious thugs and urban cult squads. 

Even if Mr. Atiku became the winner, there was something to refer back to. Mr. Atiku Abubakar had mostly one asset in his resume: he had been the deputy to the bullish Obasanjo who ran a tolerably enlightened federal government. Obasanjo had drastically reduced our nation debts internal and external, reformed the banking system, introduced a modern payment system and digitalized telecommunications. He had fired up the optimism of Nigerians and their faith in the future of the nation because individuals could make some money for themselves. A man who had been in the room where these decisions were taken deserved a second look and a chance to try his hands at the wheels. That was Atiku’s flag and appeal.

Mr. Peter Obi of the fledgling Labour Party came in from a cold anonymity. An Onitsha Market trader who had been a successful two term governor of Anambra state, Obi  came with a decent moral pedigree that is rare in Nigeria’s brackish political culture. A strange new kid on the political block, his appeal to the youth to ‘take back your country’ resonated with Nigeria’s bulging youth population. Obi reached out to the youth and urban poor with a trenchant new message. On election day, the nation showed they had heard him and his results upset the apple cart of national ‘politics as usual’. The echoes are still reverberating.

Then the system anointed Mr. Tinubu. Irrespective of the divergence of popular opinion that greeted Bola Tinubu’s emergence as President of Nigeria, the minimum irreducible expectation by February last year was that come May 29th, we would herald a new more hopeful Nigeria since nothing in anyone’s imagination contemplated a worse nightmare than the Buhari interregnum. No one could fairly deny Nigerians their democratic entitlement to optimism then. 

From the entrance gate of power at Eagle Square, the man set out to inaugurate key policy measures aimed ostensibly at reversing the toxic trends of his clueless predecessor. But ironically, each bold policy move by Mr. Tinubu has produced the direct opposite of its intended objective. He has taken off a troublesome petroleum subsidy and inaugurated sporadic fuel scarcity and unaffordable gasoline pump prices. He has unified the Naira exchange rate and driven the Naira to its lowest exchange rate since it was introduced on 1st January ,1973. He has initiated a food security initiative but hunger has emerged as a national security threat of epidemic proportions for the first time in our national history. 

The virus is not in the very policies themselves. It is instead in the methodology and embarrassing lack of method in the man’s policy madness. Key policies were announced ahead of the setting up of a functional government. Major initiatives have been announced and bandied ever before any systematic thought  was given to their consequences by any group of enlightened minds. A president that set out as a swashbuckling conquistador had no horsemen to back up his charge. 

He announced his signal reforms ever before he chose a cabinet. And when the cabinet came into place, it was an over bloated rough and tumble assembly of (48?), an inchoate assemblage of odd men and anonymous women most of them with neither background, tested skills nor pedigree. A cabinet of political debt collectors was the first let down of the Tinubu government for a nation full of optimistic expectations. 

Tragically, Mr. Tinubu has allowed the impression to grow in the streets that he is less than competent and prepared for the office of President. Contrary to this growing street perception, however, President Tinubu has been quite busy. The man has been working for Nigeria at least in his estimation and those of his devotees and acolytes. In all fairness, he has periodically unleashed a hailstorm of uncoordinated policies, actions and responses in all directions to qualify as a busy chief executive. The uncoordinated things he has said about our national problems is even more copious than what he has done. And yet, the nation seems stuck in a swamp, neither making progress nor retreating to past safer shores. Even worse, Tinubu’s job approval rating seems constantly in the red. A shrinking percentage of Nigerians appreciates his exertions. 

None can deny that Tinubu has taken some positive actions and indicated positive directions. He plans a students loans scheme to assist indigent university students. He has dished out money to state governments to buy and distribute rice palliatives to hungry and poor Nigerians. He has called state governors to support the setting up of state police formations to help tackle insecurity. He has found money to reduce the Central Bank’s foreign exchange exposures to foreign airlines and the banks. He has unleashed EFCC, police, army and DSS goons to chase after Bureau de Change operators in the streets of Abuja and other major centres as if to physically chase down the rampaging exchange rate with little effect. He has suspended an errant thieving minister, sacked and began prosecuting a former Central Bank governor and sent sniffer dogs after other major thieves. The main bastion of corruption, the NNPCL, remains largely untouched and hardly even mentioned. He has approved the construction of some major highways and rehabilitation of others.

In this avalanche of executive actions, there is clear evidence of a president who wants to work for the nation. And Tinubu likes to be praised and appreciated. But that accolade is not quite as readily forthcoming as he would have liked. Lagos is a small constituency  and his impact then could be felt and seen at a glance. Nigeria is a diverse behemoth with large problems and elephantine appetites and expectations. Mr. Tinubu’s efforts may not meet the desires of the Nigerian public square. No one can say also that Tinubu has shown the mental grasp of the Nigerian situation that the office of president requires. His solutions are too eclectic and peripheral. His choice of key personnel is too pedestrian and xenophobic. Outside his Yoruba home base, Mr. Tinubu seems to be devoid of friends of substance outside the charmed circle of political merchants. In these respects, he compares rather miserably with either an M.K.O Abiola or an Olusegun Obasanjo. 

Worsening social and economic conditions have shredded Tinubu’s best efforts so far. People are very hungry and angry too. Most are watching themselves slide into unbudgeted poverty. The miserable semblance of a middle class that used to decorate our urban landscape has vastly evaporated. People who used to drive cars now commute to work in buses. The well heeled who used to own multiple cars as a show of their affluence, have shrunk to one or two functional fuel -efficient boxes. A crushing exchange rate has forced people with children studying abroad to begin bringing them home in trickles.  Holiday schedules are being watered down.

With these problems ravaging the nation, Mr. Tinubu is unlikely to find enough cheer leaders at the ringside. And somehow, the national epidemic of hunger and hardship is beginning to eat away his solid Yoruba South West support base. If that persists and grows, he may have difficulty aspiring to a second term in office. More consequentially, the Northern mob support that helped him on to power is badly hit by the present hunger and hardship epidemic. They are not likely to chant “Sai Baba” at his future rallies unless he can find food for the hungry and cash for the impoverished and more pork for their politicians. 

It ought to worry Mr. Tinubu and his handlers that in spite of his best exertions, the critical mass of the Nigerian nation  is yet to either fall in love with him or see him as a symbol of hope and national cohesiveness. He is still seen by the social media mob as an embodiment of the ‘trouble with Nigeria’, a power usurper and illegitimate occupant of the Villa. Worse still, he still continues to carry the moral burden of his untidy resume and grisly background.

The only way to improve his job approval rating and mass appeal would be to erase the multiple problems currently threatening the livelihood of most Nigerians. To begin to do this, Tinubu must use his first anniversary in power to push the re-start button: a new cabinet of problem solvers, a think tank of non-political experts, inauguration of a target-driven administration and a more nationalistic outlook. 

It is in order to say President Bola Tinubu is actually showing some balls with many decisions he has taken since he assumed power, although the jury is still out on the reforms. Last Monday, he “ordered” (we Nigerian journalists are madly in love with that word, aren’t we?) the implementation of the Oronsaye Report. We must quickly remind ourselves that it is a seasonal practice. President Goodluck Jonathan, who set up the seven-member panel in 2012 to “restructure and rationalise” governmental bodies, “ordered” the implementation in 2014. President Muhammadu Buhari also “ordered” the implementation in 2020. Let us now hope or pray that this will be the final “order”.

We have this obsession with proliferating governmental bodies in Nigeria. For example, we used to have the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) regulating the entire petroleum industry. Someone had a brain wave that we can further atomise it, so we now have the Nigeria Upstream Regulatory Commission (NURC) and the Nigeria Downstream and Midstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Someone will soon develop the idea of creating the Nigeria Downstream Regulatory Commission (Diesel), the Nigeria Downstream Regulatory Commission (Petrol) and the Nigeria Downstream Regulatory Commission (Kerosene and Others). Please, don’t quote me.

How did we get here? Let me guess. Setting up agencies is our own way of “job creation”. Normally, it is private businesses that should be proliferating and creating jobs in a market-driven economy, but since this has become a very difficult thing for us (maybe because the economic policies, operating environment and infrastructure are very hostile to innovation and growth), we have found the short cut by creating agencies upon agencies. The newly established National Commission for the Coordination and Control of Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NATCOM) announced last year that it was going to employ and train about 300,000 Nigerians. Yes, 300,000 Nigerians.

Let me guess again. For a tiny group of people, the sweetest jobs in Nigeria are the ones with the coat of arms on the business cards, so proposals for the creation of new government agencies and institutions are never scarce. The moving spirits, or the political enablers, are probably thinking of replicating a bank or a fintech firm with an MD, EDs and GMs. Some agencies have been created since because someone had an idea of the lucre on offer. It does not matter if the agency will be duplicating the functions of another or if it will be useless altogether. Even before some agencies are legally created, the executives are already waiting in the wings. This is stranger than fiction.

How did we get here? As I was saying, when the oil boom happened to us in the 1970s, we lost our senses. As a result of the Arab-Israeli war of October 1973, crude oil prices had risen fourfold within five months. From an average price of $3 per barrel in 1973, it was going for $12 by December 1974. Nigeria became overwhelmed with the flood of petrodollars and the accompanying pathologies. In 1970, our earnings from oil exports was a modest $200 million. Between 1973 and 1978, we earned an overwhelming $32 billion, averaging over $5 billion per year. Imagine your salary is N150,000 and you hit a windfall that now pays you N4 million monthly. You will surely be agog and go gaga.

With so much money, we began to expand the size of government without paying the necessary attention to need, efficiency and service delivery. In 1972, the Udoji Public Service Review Commission was set up by the military government to examine the organisation, structure and management of public service. In 1974, the commission made far-reaching reform proposals, but government was more excited about the recommended 100 percent increase in salaries and benefits across board — to be backdated to 1972 and paid in arrears. That would be politically more popular and beneficial. We had the oil money, so why not spend it cheerfully? Why worry about tomorrow?

Everybody was happy with the Udoji Award, save for the economists who warned of a looming inflation. We had plenty petrodollars, so the exchange rate was about 60 kobo/$ (aka “The good old days”). It was cheaper to import biscuit than make it in Nigeria. Mr Joseph Atobisi, an activist, wrote two years ago, “Civil servants developed appetite for imported commodities like sugar, canned milk, stockfish, dumping available local alternatives. More workers bought cars and expensive furniture. Nigeria soon became an import dependent nation. Manufacturing started collapsing. Unemployment spiralled. From 5.40% in 1973, inflation rose to 12.67% in 1974 and 33.96% in 1975.” It is what it is.

One of the pathologies of sudden oil wealth — or should I say natural resource windfall — is the bloating of government expenditure, notably through wage bills, overheads and white elephant projects, under the philosophy of “nina lowo” (“money is meant to be spent”). We thought our problem was not money but how to spend it. This was at a time most rural roads were untarred and most villages unelectrified. Norway, which also enjoyed the oil boom, chose to insulate most of the windfall from its economy by setting up a special fund and continuing to be a fiscal state. Although we built infrastructure from the windfall, we also created a culture of bloating government budgets.

Another pathology of the several oil booms since 1973 (starting with the Udoji Award) is the humongous expansion of public service. Government jobs could be instantly created and workers easily employed — based more on political considerations than a desire to enhance administrative capacity and efficiency. Every oil windfall came with federal, state and local governments bloating expenditures, multiplying the agencies and thinking oil money would flow forever. We can argue that with a growing population and the liberalisation of the economy from the 1980s, we needed to expand public administrative capacity — but that was probably the smallest rationale on our minds.

We created an agency to make sure that fuel prices are the same all over the country and called it Petroleum Equalisation Fund. People reported for work every day. At no time were fuel prices the same but marketers still got the bridging payments in billions. We created an agency whose job is to enforce federal character in federal employments and named it Federal Character Commission (FCC), even when it is clear that federal character is always missing. People report to that office daily and they even have a DG. I can count at least 200 useless agencies. We have never had the intention of stopping the creation of more agencies or bloating public expenditure. It is always good for politics.

The National Assembly, in particular, appears to be trigger-happy when it comes to unleashing new agencies on us, although the blame equally goes to the executive and states. As reported by PUNCH published in 2022, the 9th Senate passed bills establishing 376 institutions and agencies. How they would be funded is none of their business. We created the Nigerian Independent Warehouse Regulatory Agency, National Poverty Eradication Commission, Erosion Control and Prevention Commission, etc etc. The bill to set up the Electoral Offences Commission (a job purely within the ambit of the police) is in the pipeline. A group recently proposed a Cement Price Control Agency!

In the last three decades, we have decimated the Nigerian Police Force by creating several agencies to duplicate or take over their functions. The Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC), the Directorate of Road Traffic Services (which we call “VIO”), the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) are all performing the functions of the police. Barely two days after Tinubu “ordered” implementation of Oronsaye Report, the house of reps passed a bill setting up the Peace Corps to also do part of the job of the police. We play too much in this country.

Even before deciding to implement the Oronsaye Report, Tinubu had ruffled features by putting directors and permanent secretaries on a maximum tenure of eight years so that civil servants will stop gaming the system and holding on to those positions forever. The policy was introduced by President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua but Buhari reversed it. Let us now see how far Tinubu can go with the Oronsaye Report. There is a reason it had been gathering dust for 10 years without the political will to implement it. Vested interests will lobby to get some agencies exempted. They know what to do. We talk about how to make Nigeria work but work against it when our interests are at stake.

Finally, let me caution us that the Oronsaye Report is not a silver bullet, but it is a good development that Tinubu has set the ball rolling. He has a tough job ahead and he should know that. More so, the Oronsaye Report is dated, so there will be more knotty issues to deal with. For instance, what happens to the agencies that were created after the White Paper was issued? What happens to those commissions and agencies that are not under spotlight but are richer than some states? Shouldn’t we look at them too? Most importantly, Tinubu has to focus on an overall reform of the public service for optimal service delivery. Nigerians deserve better output from the bureaucracy.

And Four

Other Things…

FORWARD MOVEMENT

We have been told several times that we needed to ditch the “military constitution” because it is against “true federalism” but I am very happy that many states are moving forward with the same constitution. Aviation and railways are on the exclusive list, but states are building airports and running airlines. Lagos state has just inaugurated its second train service, the Red Line, covering Ebute Metta to Agbado with stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege and Iju. The first phase is projected to transport 750,000 passengers daily, reaching  1.1 million once it is fully operational. The Blue Line from Okokomaiko to Lagos Marina was inaugurated last year. Progress.

MARKET MESS

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has taken a series of policy measures in the last few days to stop the naira from bleeding, to create a sense of stability. We desperately needed some calm. The naira was already heading for N2,000/$ and someone joked that it might enter 2025 before all of us. The MPC decision on interest rate has been praised by many market analysts who are hopeful that the economy will respond positively. The instability in recent times has been very devastating, although I find it comforting that there has been a swift and decisive response and Mr Yemi Cardoso, the CBN governor, has done a good job of trying to calm our fears. We are watching with bated breath. Relief.

RICE AND DEATH

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has gone into the business of repackaging and selling contraband rice to help implement Tinubu’s “renewed hope” agenda. Well done. But, predictably, there was zero risk assessment and zero crowd control, so seven people lost their lives in the stampede at the zonal headquarters in Yaba, Lagos, where the sale took place. In response to the tragedy, customs suspended the exercise, belatedly saying it was “part of the service’s resolve to ensure the safety of Nigerians and to enable it to properly articulate its next line of action, in order not to defeat the vision of the initiative”. Why was I expecting to hear customs had fired someone? Negligence.

NO COMMENT

The Nigerian government has introduced the expatriates employment levy (EEL), fixed at $15,000 per employee. According to the geniuses behind the policy, the levy is intended to “discourage” companies from hiring expatriates for jobs Nigerians “can do”. The EEL is expected to generate $13 billion per year. Imagine if the UK, US and Canada reciprocate by charging $15,000 on each Nigerian immigrant working in their countries. Meanwhile, will expats doing the jobs Nigerians cannot do also pay the levy? If you really want to “discourage” expats, why not deny them work visas? And how will you raise your $13 billion after discouraging expats from coming to Nigeria? And you know what? The company that got the contract is owned by expats doing the job Nigerians can do! Wonderful.

On Monday, the 188MW Geometric Power Plant in Aba, Abia State, was  commissioned. By this weekend, Aba Power Limited, a subsidiary of Geometric Power, will commence the supply of electricity to a section of Enyimba City. It has taken long, two decades in coming. But soon, the much-needed electricity to unleash the full potentials of Aba, the industrial and commercial nerve centre of Abia, will surely make up for the long wait.

I congratulate and appreciate the efforts of Prof Barth Nnaji and his team to deliver on this project despite all the (political and) business environment obstacles. 

His tenacity and demonstration of the ‘can-do spirit’ is exemplary. It is remarkable that the governor of Abia state had stayed the course of the project that he had made an initial contribution to as a private sector person. Equally worthy of congratulation is the enterprising people of Abia.

This significant milestone is important for a number of reasons. Firstly, it improves peoples access to electricity – and thereby improves the overall quality of life of the people of Abia. This is a privilege the people of Abia must be thankful for. As we all know, more than 40% of Nigeria’s 220 million people do not have access to electricity.

Secondly, it is a big boost to businesses. Aba is one of Southeast’s industrial nerve centres. The other is the Nnewi axis. Inadequate power infrastructure is identified as the most problematic factor for doing business in Nigeria. More than 70% of firms in Nigeria use generators.

Thirdly, the project is delivered by the private sector – and an indigenous one to boot! It demonstrates the resilience of the private sector despite all the business environment issues. It also demonstrates the capacity of the local private sector to deliver on such huge and complex projects.

Why does this excite me?

I have all along been concerned that:

1. The Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) has over the years suffered from inadequate investments, failure of generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure.

2. Nigeria’s core infrastructure stock is very low, estimated at 35-40% of GDP, below the international benchmark of  70% and below South Africa 87%, Indonesia 70%, China 76% and India 58%.

3. The finances required to bridge Nigeria’s infrastructure gap are in the region of US$100 billion per annum – over the next 30 years.  Nigeria does not have the resources to provide all of its infrastructure needs without sacrificing investments in education, health, and other social services. It should be remembered that Nigeria struggles to budget no more than US$30 billion annually.

For these reasons, I have been an ardent advocate of private sector presence in Nigeria. I have all along advocated for a private sector friendly business environment so we could leverage its enormous resources, including finance, skills, and technology. I doubt if the Abia state government would have been able to execute this mega project with the resources at its disposal.  

My policy document outlines how Nigeria could prioritize investments to increase the stock and improve the quality of economic and social infrastructure across the country. We believe that  narrowing the enormous gap that exists between the demand and supply of key infrastructure facilities in Nigeria is key to improving the competitiveness of our businesses, opening new economic and entrepreneurial opportunities, and promoting enterprise growth. 

To achieve this, we pledged to undertake far-reaching institutional reforms and introduce innovative infrastructure financing models that will be appealing to the private sector to take risks and invest capital.

To this end, we pledged to:

· Facilitate the establishment of a private sector-led Infrastructure Debt Fund (IDF) to mobilize domestic and international private resources for the financing and delivery of large infrastructure projects across all sectors of the economy.  

· Establish an “Infrastructure Development Unit” (IDU) in the Presidency, with a coordinating function and a specific mandate of working with the MDAs to fast track and drive the process of infrastructure development in the country.

· Strengthen the capacity of the ICRC to promote Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in the construction and management of infrastructure across the country.

· Broaden the scope of InfraCredit  to complement the operation of the IDF by de-risking investments in infrastructure to build investor confidence in taking risks and investing capital. 

· Open up the entire power sector from generation to transmission for private investments.

Going forward, the goal of every developing country must be to  achieve universal access to electricity, ensuring that every citizen benefits from reliable power for daily needs, education, healthcare, and economic activities. This would be in line with the SDG 7 (Sustainable Development Goal 7), which aims to ensure affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. In this wise:

· Nigeria must double efforts to support the likes of Prof Nnaji. Nigerian governments both federal and state must provide the Business environment that will make  the private enterprises more competitive by (1)  reducing their costs of set-up and operations (2) improving their margins and (3) making government policies more predictable.

· In particular, the authorities must create an environment that will enable distribution companies to recover full costs for power supplied to their consumers with firm commitment to a metering program for all customers. The scourge of electricity theft must be dealt with through a viable partnership between investors in the distribution companies and the government with legislative support for prompt action against electricity theft.

· Attention must be paid to improve access to Credit by enterprises willing to invest in the power sector.

· Government must incentivize the private sector to increase greenfield investments in the development of off-grid solutions to intensify electrification, particularly of rural communities not yet serviced by the grid.

Abubakar, Nigeria’s Vice President of Nigeria from 1999 to 2007, was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 elections.

 

An Igbo proverb says that the man who complained about the relocation of the village market because its current location suited his wife is not thinking of the needs and fortunes of the larger community. The Igbo will also tell you that a coffin merchant who says to a customer “I will give you a discount when you come for the next purchase” must be viewed with misgivings by all men and women of goodwill. There is also the Igbo saying that whoever makes a living by impunity, presumption and braggadocio will have a very hard time when widespread hunger, draught and famine compels everyone in the community to deploy his farming skills.

Which brings us to the outcry of Katsina Elders, among other allegedly ‘Northern’ voices, when news of the relocation of some departments of the Central bank of Nigeria and aviation ministry hit the airwaves. Like Senator Ndume, who opened with a rather virulent salvo, the Katsina Elders forum asked President Tinubu to either reconsider the decision or face the clear possibility of losing Northern support in the 2027 elections. The statement was that blunt; and to the point.

But what is this much-vaunted point? The reaction was very likely in anticipation of the potential socio-economic impact of a relocation of institutions of state on Northern Nigeria. The group accused some individuals of ill-advising President Tinubu, calling the presumes mis-advisers enemies of Nigeria who aim to undermine the unity of the country.

By implication the, Katsina Elders are saying that the unity and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is secured and maintained by the continued presence of certain government institutions in Abuja – or in the North, generally. Now, that is absurd, is it not?

Not quite done on the matter, the forum accused the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, of supporting the federal government’s plan to relocate anything at all. Quite an “accusation”, wouldn’t you say? The group also asked why Wike was “inviting the Israelis to come and provide security to (sic) Abuja.” That is the business of Katsina Elders – I mean what a minister does, or does not do, in Abuja; right?

This group of wise elders said nothing when Miyetti Allah, a trade union of cattle dealers, set up a fully kitted alternative national security outfit, with its pilot test case in Nasarawa State. The group said nothing when the son of Professor Ango Abdullahi, Chairman of the Northern Elders Forum, was kidnapped from a Kaduna-bound train. The young man was held captive for months, until the full ransom was paid. Not even the subsequent kidnapping of Ango Abdullahi’s relation and her four children, shortly after the release of his son on ransom, was a matter of interest to Katsina Elders.

Even now, the Katsina Elders have not seen anything to worry, or talk, about concerning the routine pillaging of the North by marauders of northern Nigeria origins. Instead, they are very deeply concerned about what President Tinubu should do, in order to please the North and get the support he would need to win the 2027 elections. In strident tones, the group said:
“… we are telling Mr. President, as long as he is interested in coming back in 2027, … to reverse these unconstitutional decisions. Whoever is advising him to take such decisions is an enemy of the country.”

Perhaps the revered Katsina Elders would recall a lengthy submission of four years ago, by the Northern elder statesman, Ahmed Joda. The latter sought to remind his brothers and sisters that Northern Nigeria was not developing its human capital. He also told them, in that well-publicized open expression of concern that the North no longer had the time to do so anymore; and that the region was now ill-equipped to fit into either the knowledge-driven world of today or the new world of tomorrow. He summed it by saying that the North needed at least 20 years of super-accelerated development of its human capital in order to be taken seriously in today’s world.

Is the foregoing the concern of most of the people speaking for the North today? What you see, instead, is the pursuit of the illusion of dominance. No one is asking whether the larger half of the youths of the region possess the skills for tomorrow, or anything that could make them part of a 21st century world in any way.

Everyone now overlooks the major point in Joda’s intervention, which revolved around the fact that the triumphalism of cattle herders will not take the North anywhere in the immediate and long terms. The herders’ illusion of invulnerability rests on a conspiracy to use national security framework to promote insecurity in specific regions of the country. Can this last forever?  Has the headship of institutions of state helped the North, or created a “replacement generation” that can lead the region into the future – even here in Nigeria?

There are abandoned, ungoverned and even ungovernable, spaces all over Northern Nigeria, due to terrorism and banditry. The North’s dominant elite lives in Abuja, while playing games with the very criminals that are wiping out northerners and laying their lands desolate.  

An article which appeared on this page on April 17, 2019, titled “As the North Goes Under”, spoke of how a serving Secretary to the Zamfara State Government “…explained how he abandoned his farm and ranch because of cattle rustling and fear for his personal safety.” He confessed that “it was impossible to deploy law enforcement agents, even for himself, in any meaningful way” because they were mostly outnumbered, ill equipped and answerable to Abuja. As I write, matters have worsened very dramatically in Zamfara State over the years.

Remember that the government of Katsina State once signed an agreement with bandits; for them to stop robbing and maiming hapless citizens under Governor Maisari?  What became of that agreement, and what did Katsina Elders say about it; and about the series of kidnappings going on in the state? What did they say, at that time, about the months-long kidnap of a Katsina State traditional ruler, and of the recent kidnap of a home-going bride and the 63 women accompanying her in the same Katsina?

Remember that Bauchi State signed an MoU on service delivery with development partners a few years ago? Remember also that the same Bauchi State has schools and other social amenities that are better not talked about here. The situation is hardly different in Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kano and other northern states. Even states with over 10% of their geographical spaces occupied by marauders have been drafting and implementing budgets and development projects covering these areas, where no one lives.

Is it just elite myopia, leadership illiteracy and abysmal ignorance at work here? Most of Nigeria’s poor are northerners. It is always the case, whether or not most high profile political and economically rewarding positions are held by Northerners. For the first time ever, beginning with the tenure of President Buhari, the North came out with the greatest evidence of a people’s failure to follow the rules of political and economic self-preservation.

What you find at most major social events organized by prominent politicians in most parts of the country today, but specially the North, is that the guests are overwhelmed by shabby looking youths. They are either generally prowling the vicinity, directly affronting guests, or raiding laid out serving-food tables. They are very hungry, and not yet very angry about that. They are looking for bits of leftover, a little cash gift here and there, perhaps a half empty bottle of water, oo a soft drink. Nothing more!

And the big men themselves are usually not embarrassed by the spectacle.

It should be easy for the Katsina Elders to see the disconnect between today’s world and the illusion of relevance they are trying to sustain. School enrolment, the acquisition of vocational skills, professional development, and overall academic performance have not improved, and are not improving, in the North. But go and take a look at the recorded expenditures on education in the last ten years alone.

The North has not shown a significant increase in the number of people registering for SSCE, NECO and similar competitive examinations. And Northerners is being progressively wiped out by “their people” who come here from Chad, Mali, Niger and further away. Many Northern youths are begging in the streets, or in the forests, while those from outside Nigeria now dominate even the herding business; as they turn everywhere into a no-man’s-land. More and more foreigners may be the ones with Nigerian ID cards in the North. The total number of registered candidates for all competitive examinations from the 19 states of the north continues to stand much lower than that of one serious state in the South. Yet, the Katsina Elders are not looking in the right direction for their problems.

The roaming bands of marauders who have no conception of even Fulani/Muslim brotherhood may yet be the undoing of Northern Nigeria, unless the Northern elite wake up on time – if it still has time. The merciless, mindless and truly gruesome regular killing, the kidnappings and the rapacious banditry now has a life of its own. A new breed of wild young men, with predominantly predatory and anti-social skills, and who would rather pick up any healthy-looking man rather than say ‘Ranka dede’, are on the ascendant in Northern Nigeria. This is bad! Very bad for us all!

When you combine the foregoing with widespread drug abuse, poverty, open-ended criminality and elite insensitivity in one location, there you have the ingredients for brewing what is keeping most northern big men to Abuja and environs. Can they be in exile forever? I think not! Abuja itself is no longer safe. Many high-profile, and presumably impregnable, estates and exclusive neighbourhoods in Abuja are no routinely attacked; at the pleasure of bandits and kidnappers.

From the angle of business and simple economics, local economies have collapsed. Re-desertification has taken over the places abandoned by victims of insurgency. Farming and animal husbandry are in limbo, in places where they used to thrive. There is now no peace mind of for those who had the chance to make a difference but failed to do so. Thus, the elite must now spend so much on armed escorts and sundry security measures.

To the Katsina elders, as I said at the beginning of this piece, “…the man who complained about the relocation of the village market because its current location suited his wife is not thinking of the needs and fortunes of the larger community. …whoever makes a living by impunity, presumption and braggadocio will have a very hard time when widespread hunger, draught and famine compels everyone in the community to deploy his farming skills”.

In dealing with one of the initial shocks of the fuel subsidy removal in June 2023, many agencies of the Federal Government and a good number of state governments ‘officially’ reduced working days of the week to either three or two days, instead of the normal five. This initiative was a sort of palliative to lighten the burden of civil servants who were faced with an outrageously high and rising cost of transportation, triggered by rise in the pump price of fuel (Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) sequel to fuel subsidy removal by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration on 29 May 2023.

However, while the reduction in work days may alleviate the plight of the civil servants, productivity at the state and Federal levels was utterly sacrificed. In other words, the main reason for hiring these civil servants was played down—all culminating in unquantifiable loss of the ‘output’ of these public servants. On the aggregate, nationwide, Nigeria would have lost immeasurably in terms of the productivity that would have added up to the much needed economic growth and development.

Productivity is a measure of economic performance that compares the amount of goods and services produced (output) with the amount of inputs used to produce those goods and services. Productivity is said to increase when more output is produced with the same amount of inputs or when the same amount of output is produced with less inputs. But in the subsisting ‘palliative regime’ in Nigeria, the same number of civil servants is being used to ‘produce’ the same or less services at the Federal and sub-national levels: all because of the adverse impact of government policies.

Ever since the adoption of the two or three days (working) week in June 2023, almost every initiative of the Federal and state governments have principally to do with palliatives. There have been hues of ‘salary awards’, cash transfers and motley in-kind palliatives. It is on record that the Federal Government at a point late last year, announced a dole of five billion Naira to each of the states for an assortment of palliative packages for their citizens. The utilization of this fund got ‘soaked’ in the politics of each of the states; and the governors mainly used their political party ‘network’ to reach out to select beneficiaries.

Till date, many of the state governments are still contending that they were given only N2 billion and not N5 billion; and that the money was only to be repaid. Howbeit, it remains very doubtful if the right targets (the very vulnerable) got the government’s largesse (palliatives) in most of the states. This is why, over the past months, rather than things getting better, many more Nigerian have been pushed into the poverty trap in the face of sharp increases in the cost of living.

The import of all these has been continuing deterioration of the nation’s social fabric: sharp increases in crimes and criminality, upheavals and skirmishes, youth restiveness, organized protests, etc. All these have combined to heighten socio-economic tension, even as insecurity keeps posing existential threat to all. The polity is now such that government at all levels is contending with a hungry, angry and restive citizenry. The upshot of this reality has been packaging and re-packaging of all manner of palliatives to (perhaps) merely assuage the frayed nerves and ire of the populace across the country.

In the past couple of weeks, there have been public protests in not a few towns and cities in various parts of the country: Kano, Kaduna, Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Abuja, Edo and Osun states, etc. As the protests keep spreading like wild fire, governments (states and federal) seem yet preoccupied with ‘dousing’ the tension (anger, hunger, poverty) through palliatives. This is perhaps why, instead of expeditiously coming up with a new/improved salary structure (or minimum wage), the Federal government seems more bent of paying ‘cash awards’ and ‘crumbs’ to calm the Organized Labor (OL), as it were.

The upshot of this has been that in the past eight or nine months, the OL has been in an endless dingdong with the Federal government over the form and content of palliatives as well as the new minimum wage.

While these remain open-ended, the Federal government has resorted to giving ‘food palliatives’; under this arrangement, the Tinubu administration, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, is working on releasing 42,000 metric tonnes of assorted food commodities to support the vulnerable population across the country. As this is ongoing, various state governments in a variety of ways, are institutionalizing the ‘palliatives culture.’ In Lagos state, the commercial hub of the country, for instance, a ‘Special Dispensation Palliative Advisory Committee’ has just been set up.

Chaired by the Governor, with his Deputy as alternate Chairman, the eleven man inter-party panel is to determine the content and variety of palliatives to be put in place by the government, going forward. It will also determine the timing and mode of distribution—to reach the teeming populace. At the Federal level, too, President Tinubu has equally empaneled a tripartite economic advisory committee—essentially to come up with “immediate measures to stabilize the economy.” Made up of representatives from the Federal and state governments as well as the Organized Private Sector (OPS), the panel is to help initiate steps to speedily “bring life back to the economy.”

The situation is not different in other states of the country: it is either the government is buying and distributing foodstuff or buying and deploying buses to ‘ease’ transportation challenges in its domain. These buses are made to charge ‘subsidized’ fares as palliatives for the people. Since June 2023, the Federal government had during festive seasons ensured ‘low fare’ charges by the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) for users of the railways across the country—all in the spirit of palliatives.

Some state governments have so integrated the ‘palliative culture’ into their mode of operation that they rather give crop seedlings (yam, maize, cassava, etc.) to their populace than introduce them to mechanized farming. In point of fact, the seedlings (and in some cases, fertilizer and other inputs) are sold by government (agencies) at subsidized rates—again, as palliatives.

In truth, a panoramic view of all these ‘palliative interventions’ will put to question whatever has been the economic development blueprint of the governments. If there has been any realistic economic roadmap, would palliatives or ad hoc provisions been necessary? Indeed, in the absence of a realistic destination (roadmap), every road (palliatives and doles) just takes Nigeria to somewhere (economically). And that has been its plight for upwards of one year now. At present, the Nigerian economy badly needs direction, stimulation and leapfrogging for a quantum leap. Palliatives will always remain what they are: crumbs!

  • The author, Okeke, a practising Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com

    In dealing with one of the initial shocks of the fuel subsidy removal in June 2023, many agencies of the Federal Government and a good number of state governments ‘officially’ reduced working days of the week to either three or two days, instead of the normal five. This initiative was a sort of palliative to lighten the burden of civil servants who were faced with an outrageously high and rising cost of transportation, triggered by rise in the pump price of fuel (Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) sequel to fuel subsidy removal by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration on 29 May 2023.

    However, while the reduction in work days may alleviate the plight of the civil servants, productivity at the state and Federal levels was utterly sacrificed. In other words, the main reason for hiring these civil servants was played down—all culminating in unquantifiable loss of the ‘output’ of these public servants. On the aggregate, nationwide, Nigeria would have lost immeasurably in terms of the productivity that would have added up to the much needed economic growth and development.

    Productivity is a measure of economic performance that compares the amount of goods and services produced (output) with the amount of inputs used to produce those goods and services. Productivity is said to increase when more output is produced with the same amount of inputs or when the same amount of output is produced with less inputs. But in the subsisting ‘palliative regime’ in Nigeria, the same number of civil servants is being used to ‘produce’ the same or less services at the Federal and sub-national levels: all because of the adverse impact of government policies.

    Ever since the adoption of the two or three days (working) week in June 2023, almost every initiative of the Federal and state governments have principally to do with palliatives. There have been hues of ‘salary awards’, cash transfers and motley in-kind palliatives. It is on record that the Federal Government at a point late last year, announced a dole of five billion Naira to each of the states for an assortment of palliative packages for their citizens. The utilization of this fund got ‘soaked’ in the politics of each of the states; and the governors mainly used their political party ‘network’ to reach out to select beneficiaries.

    Till date, many of the state governments are still contending that they were given only N2 billion and not N5 billion; and that the money was only to be repaid. Howbeit, it remains very doubtful if the right targets (the very vulnerable) got the government’s largesse (palliatives) in most of the states. This is why, over the past months, rather than things getting better, many more Nigerian have been pushed into the poverty trap in the face of sharp increases in the cost of living.

    The import of all these has been continuing deterioration of the nation’s social fabric: sharp increases in crimes and criminality, upheavals and skirmishes, youth restiveness, organized protests, etc. All these have combined to heighten socio-economic tension, even as insecurity keeps posing existential threat to all. The polity is now such that government at all levels is contending with a hungry, angry and restive citizenry. The upshot of this reality has been packaging and re-packaging of all manner of palliatives to (perhaps) merely assuage the frayed nerves and ire of the populace across the country.

    In the past couple of weeks, there have been public protests in not a few towns and cities in various parts of the country: Kano, Kaduna, Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Abuja, Edo and Osun states, etc. As the protests keep spreading like wild fire, governments (states and federal) seem yet preoccupied with ‘dousing’ the tension (anger, hunger, poverty) through palliatives. This is perhaps why, instead of expeditiously coming up with a new/improved salary structure (or minimum wage), the Federal government seems more bent of paying ‘cash awards’ and ‘crumbs’ to calm the Organized Labor (OL), as it were.

    The upshot of this has been that in the past eight or nine months, the OL has been in an endless dingdong with the Federal government over the form and content of palliatives as well as the new minimum wage.

    While these remain open-ended, the Federal government has resorted to giving ‘food palliatives’; under this arrangement, the Tinubu administration, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, is working on releasing 42,000 metric tonnes of assorted food commodities to support the vulnerable population across the country. As this is ongoing, various state governments in a variety of ways, are institutionalizing the ‘palliatives culture.’ In Lagos state, the commercial hub of the country, for instance, a ‘Special Dispensation Palliative Advisory Committee’ has just been set up.

    Chaired by the Governor, with his Deputy as alternate Chairman, the eleven man inter-party panel is to determine the content and variety of palliatives to be put in place by the government, going forward. It will also determine the timing and mode of distribution—to reach the teeming populace. At the Federal level, too, President Tinubu has equally empaneled a tripartite economic advisory committee—essentially to come up with “immediate measures to stabilize the economy.” Made up of representatives from the Federal and state governments as well as the Organized Private Sector (OPS), the panel is to help initiate steps to speedily “bring life back to the economy.”

    The situation is not different in other states of the country: it is either the government is buying and distributing foodstuff or buying and deploying buses to ‘ease’ transportation challenges in its domain. These buses are made to charge ‘subsidized’ fares as palliatives for the people. Since June 2023, the Federal government had during festive seasons ensured ‘low fare’ charges by the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) for users of the railways across the country—all in the spirit of palliatives.

    Some state governments have so integrated the ‘palliative culture’ into their mode of operation that they rather give crop seedlings (yam, maize, cassava, etc.) to their populace than introduce them to mechanized farming. In point of fact, the seedlings (and in some cases, fertilizer and other inputs) are sold by government (agencies) at subsidized rates—again, as palliatives.

    In truth, a panoramic view of all these ‘palliative interventions’ will put to question whatever has been the economic development blueprint of the governments. If there has been any realistic economic roadmap, would palliatives or ad hoc provisions been necessary? Indeed, in the absence of a realistic destination (roadmap), every road (palliatives and doles) just takes Nigeria to somewhere (economically). And that has been its plight for upwards of one year now. At present, the Nigerian economy badly needs direction, stimulation and leapfrogging for a quantum leap. Palliatives will always remain what they are: crumbs!

    • The author, Okeke, a practising Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com