For the better part of the last decade, Nigeria’s economy has been quite troubling. During President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, the World Bank’s Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals revealed that the number of Nigerians living in extreme poverty of less than $1.90 per day superseded that of every other country in the world.

There was not much change to the narrative from about 2017 when the report was made public till the end of the administration in 2023. This seems to explain the expedience of the series of reforms introduced by the new administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu – reforms that are yet to rescue Nigerians from pervasive hunger. The floating of the naira in particular virtually rubbished whatever was left of the value of the country’s currency.

But while everyone has been lamenting the situation, a few groups appear to be succeeding in their strategic design of exploiting fellow citizens to garner huge resources for themselves. Notwithstanding the efforts of Nigeria’s anti-corruption agencies to battle corrupt citizens, the nation is still ranked by Transparency International (TI) as low as 145 out of 180 most corrupt nations in the world.

Only last week, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission EFCC jolted the polity by moving against insider abuses. She courageously dismissed 27 of her officers for various offences bordering on fraudulent activities and misconduct. In addition, the Commission is currently investigating an allegation of corruption to the tune of $400,000 against one of its sectional heads while promising that “every modicum of allegation against any staff of the Commission would always be investigated.”

Although the public believes that our law enforcement agencies can do far more than they are currently doing, there is at least some evidence that the fight against kidnappers is still raging. But there is ample silence over the unending sharp practices by banks at the expense of fellow citizens to garner huge resources year in year out. According to one analyst, Nigeria’s big banks which recorded as much as N1.83 trillion profit in the first 9months of 2023 were able to double the figure in the same period in 2024. This level of profiteering is attributed to the exploitation of two key policies; first, the liberalization of the foreign exchange market and second, the exceedingly high-interest rate regime. It is an unpatriotic game of taking undue advantage of the letters rather than the spirit of both policies. 

Against this backdrop, several questions have been begging for answers. First, with Nigeria’s poverty level featuring majority of citizens living below poverty line, with whom are our banks trading to attain their huge profits? Why is it that during festivities especially towards the end of every year, the naira suddenly becomes scarce in our banks and their affiliates? The first time what looked like a direct answer to these questions emerged was some two months back when the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cadoso warned banks to strictly adhere to cash distribution policies or face severe penalties. Cardoso spoke at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in November 2024.To me, what the warning suggested was that the unpatriotic act of starving citizens during such periods was the handiwork of our banks.

Alas, last week a big hammer fell on 9 banks, namely: Fidelity Bank Plc, First Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Plc, Union Bank Plc, Globus Bank Plc, Providus Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, and Sterling Bank Plc. They were sanctioned for failing to make naira notes available through automated teller machines (ATMs), during the last yuletide season. For such unpardonable non-compliance with CBN’s cash distribution guidelines, each of the banks was to pay a fine of N150million. There is doubt if the penalty is commensurate to the pain which the banks’ indiscretion inflicted on citizens but Cardoso deserves to be commended for breaking away from the past practice of merely warning our banks. As the apex bank has observed “ensuring seamless cash flow is indeed paramount to maintaining public trust and economic stability.”

The public on its part looks forward to the following greater promise by the CBN:a) enforcing POS operators’ daily cumulative withdrawal limit of N1.2 million; b)continuous investigation and monitoring to scrutinize cash hoarding and rationing, both at bank branches and by Point-of-Sale (POS) operators and c) working with security agencies to crack down on illegal cash sales and operational violations. There is however a suggestion in some quarters that banks are being merely used as scapegoats to cover the nation’s economic doldrum. Whereas this is possible, it appears quite hard to support considering that most of the affected banks are among those that telecoms’ operators have secured the approval of the Nigerian Communication Commission NCC to disconnect over unpaid debts.

Does it therefore mean that sharp games such as tax evasion and hoarding of the naira are part of what have been boosting the economic prosperity of banks and their executives? If so, patriotic bank leaders have an obligation to call their bad eggs to order. It is almost unimaginable that some bankers that many of us admire and look up to in the struggle to uplift Nigeria from her precarious economic situation are secretly playing major roles in undermining the nation. There is thus the need for a rejuvenation of our value system so as to reinstate positive work ethics which rewards constructive hard work. Nigerian award organizers need to further introspect and ensure that only persons of integrity and not bogus political office holders or those who relish profiteering are selected for awards.

Nigerians should develop the courage to call out persons who are known cheats. But for the threat of suing for defamation, I was almost immediately tempted to support Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State for openly condemning the Oyo-mesi (kingmakers) that he accused of receiving bribes to select a new Alafin of Oyo. Makinde must move a step further by ensuring that the particular kingmakers he indicted are prosecuted. By so doing, he would have taken the lead in the clamour for many leadership positions in our country – University Vice Chancellorship or indeed sacred Obaship etc. to be neither compromised nor commercialized. This plea for Nigerians to openly reject vices must however not be exploited. It is not in the interest of the nation for anyone to, under the guise of exposing vices, deliberately indict innocent fellow citizens.

Only a few days ago, many Nigerians must have been shocked to watch our federal legislators on national television bullying and harassing the impeccable Professor Ishaq Oloyede, Registrar of the Joint Matriculation and Admissions Board, JAMB. At a budget defence session last Monday, the examination body was alleged to have among other things spent N1.1 billion on meals and N850 million for fumigation. Oloyede was even derided as having been fumigating mosquitoes. Any Nigerian who has followed the history of JAMB, must have been aware of not only the positive transformation of the body by Oloyede but also that it was him who ended the era of JAMB snakes swallowing huge funds of the organization. Legislators who claim to represent the people should know leaders more than the rest of us.

Luckily, the National Assembly Joint Committee on Finance has since exonerated JAMB of the alleged misappropriation of funds in its 2024 budget implementation. Sani Musa, Chairman of the committee, said in a statement that the board “was erroneously accused of reckless spending.” 

According to Musa, the comprehensive report provided by JAMB indicated that the line items mentioned during Monday’s hearing on revenue did not suggest any mismanagement or misuse of the board’s funds. On the contrary, the report highlighted the responsible and prudent use of resources under the leadership of the registrar.”

It is hoped that moving forward, legislators would be encouraged by their presiding officers to make better use of the presence of television cameras during budget sessions instead of playing to the gallery. Consequently, committees of the National Assembly should diligently carryout their oversight functions as a basis for preventing poor performance by agencies rather than waiting for televised sessions to point out imaginary faults. Just like what the CBN has done to recalcitrant banks, it is only agencies that refuse to heed several warnings that should be chastised. In which case, agencies of government and oversight supervisors in the legislator must be working together in the interest of Nigeria.

The Labour Party leader and the 2023 Presidential Candidate, Peter Obi, has reacted to the tragic petrol tanker explosion that claimed several lives, calling for stricter Safety Measures to avert the persisting accident.

Writing on his X handle, Obi condoles the bereaved families and prays for quick recovery of the injured.
"The tragic petrol tanker explosion that occurred along Dikko-Maje Road in the Suleja Local Government Area of Niger State yesterday is truly heartbreaking. Reports indicate that over 70 lives were lost, while more than 50 people were injured in the incident.

"These accidents, which have sadly become increasingly recurrent in recent times, highlight the urgent need for the implementation of stricter safety measures to address the dangers of tanker explosions and similar incidents, which often result in colossal disasters.

"I sincerely commiserate with the families who lost their loved ones in the tragedy. I also extend my condolences to the Government and people of Niger State over this devastating incident. May God grant them, and all of us, the fortitude to bear this loss, eternal rest to the departed, and a swift recovery to the injured.

Ibrahim Umar
POMR SPOKESMAN

Nigeria’s acceptance into the BRICS club as a partner country is a slap in the face for Nigerian leaders, the foreign policy establishment and citizens who believe that Nigeria is a powerhouse in Africa and can play a big role in world affairs. 

In years gone by, Nigerian leaders projected an active foreign policy that not only made Africa the centrepiece of the country’s foreign policy but also branded Nigeria as the lead voice on the global stage for matters pertaining to Africa. 

The announcement by Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the country has been admitted into the BRICS club, which seeks to challenge Western hegemony in the world economy, as a partner country, raises unsettling questions. It suggests how low perceptions of Nigeria have been as a key player in African and global geopolitics in recent years by world leaders.

How can Ethiopia (which has a smaller GDP than Nigeria), and Egypt and South Africa (which only leapfrogged Nigeria on the GDP metric in 2024 after the massive devaluation of the naira in 2023) be full members of BRICS and Nigeria confined to the status of a partner member? 

This, surely, must be insulting to many Nigerians. It seems that Nigeria’s dysfunctional domestic politics has affected the foreign policy establishment and weakened its posture on the global stage. 

The statement from the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accepting the BRICS’ offer reads like Nigeria’s foreign policy has become largely transactional, without any lofty ideals, vision or strategic goals. It sees the BRICS as ‘a unique platform for Nigeria to enhance trade, investment, and socio-economic cooperation with member countries.’ 

How a second tier membership role in an organisation like BRICS will impact Nigeria’s aspirations for regional power status and global influence is not addressed. If Nigeria can’t gain full or permanent membership of BRICS, why should it expect to be granted permanent membership of the UN Security Council?—a long-standing position it has canvassed for Africa’s voice in world affairs.

The love affair with Macron and the tragedy of ECOWAS

In November last year, Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, visited Emmanuel Macron, the French president, in Paris, and was given a lavish welcome. That visit rattled the leaders of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali—the so-called Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—who have withdrawn their countries from the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS). 

Niger even accused Nigeria of working with Macron to send troops to Nigeria and invade Niger. The secretary general of the civil society organisation, Citizen’s Alternative Spaces in Niger, Moussa Tiangari, who around the same time attended a symposium in Abuja on the life and times of a friend and public intellectual (an event that I also attended), Jibrin Ibrahim, was detained when he returned to Niger, on suspicion that he was part of the plot to attack Niger.

It is clear that the AES leaders do not trust Nigeria’s deepening alliance with France, whom they perceive as a mortal enemy. These leaders have kicked French troops out of their countries and are fiercely opposed to what they correctly brand as French neocolonialism. French troops have also been evicted from Chad, and have been given notice to withdraw from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. 

The Ivorian quit notice announced by Alhassan Ouattara, however, is dubious, because he’s well embedded in French governmental networks and played a big role in pushing ECOWAS to threaten to invade Niger in 2023. Analysts believe he’s asked French troops to leave his country to placate the anger of Ivorian youth, who’re also opposed to French neocolonialism and French troops in their country. Critics surmise that he doesn’t want the controversy over French troops in Côte d’Ivoire to be an issue in the forthcoming Ivorian national elections in which he has hinted to run for a fourth term. 

The AES leaders are jittery about Nigeria and Tinubu’s close ties with Macron, especially in light of the aggressive posture Tinubu, who, as Chair of ECOWAS, adopted when the organisation threatened to invade Niger and imposed some of the most punitive sanctions in Africa ever on the country, including cutting off electricity supply and trade relations, and blocking financial transactions between ECOWAS and Niger. Macron, the EU and the US were fully behind ECOWAS in the objective of either reversing the military coup by force or making life terribly uncomfortable for Nigériens, who, they hoped, would rise up against the regime and topple it, or force the regime to relinquish power. 

That ill-judged and disastrous policy has cost ECOWAS dearly. The three countries, which account for more than half of the ECOWAS land area, are determined to remain outside the organisation and deepen economic and political ties within the AES. 

According to ECOWAS rules, their membership should expire on 29 January, 2025. The organisation has, however, given the three countries an extended exit date of six months (up until 29 July), hoping that negotiations between ECOWAS and the AES would resolve the problem and the AES countries would return as full members. 

As Chair of ECOWAS, and instigator of the conflict with the AES leaders, one would have thought that Tinubu and his foreign policy establishment would spend more time rebuilding the damaged relations with the AES leaders than cozying up to Macron, a hated figure in not only the AES countries, but in West Africa generally. 

There’s no significant economic or geostrategic value in deepening ties with France, unless if one adopts a simplistic transactional view of international relations. 

France has had a strategic interest in weakening Nigeria since its independence in 1960. It views Nigeria, which accounts for about half of West Africa’s population and more than 60% of its GDP, as a threat to France’s neocolonial designs in the Francophone West African countries. It doesn’t want the Francophone countries, which it considers its sphere of influence, to be lured by, and deepen their ties with, a powerful Nigeria. 

Instructively, France doesn’t have the power resources that define the status of a great power to merit a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. It’s project of holding on to its former colonies by constructing debilitating patron-client monetary and military relations with them is to bolster its image as a world power. 

If France is stripped of its military bases and neocolonial power in its former colonies, which are largely in Africa, and we judge it solely on the basis of the size of its economy, India deserves to replace it in the UN Security Council, especially as India is also a nuclear power. 

France supported the breakup of Nigeria during the Biafra war in the 1960s, and has been implacably opposed to the ECOWAS monetary integration plan, which seeks to create a single West African currency, the eco.

In December 2019, following growing opposition to the monetary arrangements that underpinned the CFA franc in West Africa, and fears that the proposed ECOWAS eco currency would end the CFA franc as a currency and French economic influence in the region, Macron and Ouattara hurriedly announced new rules for the CFA franc and renamed the currency eco—clearly challenging ECOWAS and making it difficult for ECOWAS to forge ahead with its eco plan. 

As France faces unprecedent opposition in its former colonies , one would have thought that Nigeria would be in the driver’s seat in protecting these countries from French attempts at destabilising them. Instead, it has projected an image of a willing enabler of French and Western neocolonial interests in its backyard. That is not the hallmark of an aspiring great power. 

The perception by the AES leaders that France and Nigeria want to invade their countries endangers the democracy project in those states. It forces the leaders of those states to prioritise their survival over demands for the restoration of democratic forms of government. The struggles against neocolonialism and the laudable campaign for democracy are currently at a stalemate. How to support the popular movement unfolding against French neocolonialism in West Africa and at the same time back demands for democratic rights and institutions is very taxing.

“Every time you negotiate with terrorists, you become their accomplice” – VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 244

The story in the Weekend Trust of January 4-5, 2025, titled, ‘Inside Kaduna’s peace deal with bandits’, was the sort of thing to make one tremble for this country. The Governor of Kaduna State was reported to be involved in negotiations with some of the bandits operating in the state. As the story went, the heinous criminals, having received the attentive ears of the State’s Chief Security Officer, SCSO, were asking for the release of their gang members in custody and rehabilitation of those who choose to surrender, among other demands. Here are parts of the reports; before my comments.

“Our correspondent accompanied government officials to various enclaves and observed the interactions between the bandits, mostly armed with AK-47 rifles and representatives of government.” Hitherto, I have commended the Governor, who was managing a totally broken state, which he inherited from El-Rufai, with dexterity. He has not allowed a huge debt burden to weigh down government’s programmes. And, he has been doing his best to mend the cracks in ethnic relationships which characterized Kaduna State for eight years.

I still stand by those comments. That is why the story in the Weekend Trust came as a shock to me. Without mincing words, nothing about it makes sense; and aspects of it might be treasonable. But, first let me remind Governor Uba Sani that he is SCSO of Kaduna State, not National Chief Security Officer. While unknown numbers of the crimes – including kidnapping, extortion, sexual and physical assault and murder – were committed in Kaduna State, a lot of them occurred on Federal Highways; Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano.

That is not Kaduna State. Furthermore, the plight of one of my friends from Sokoto, now residing in Abuja, should serve as caution to Governor Sani. His daughter was among travellers in a bus going to Sokoto; when they were abducted near Jere. Two, out of the fourteen passengers, were shot by the bandits for not moving fast enough. The rest paid various sums as ransom before being released. They had no business with Kaduna except that the roads linking Abuja with Sokoto passed through the state. All the crimes were committed on Federal Road.

I find it difficult to understand how the Governor of Kaduna, or any other state for that matter, can be negotiating with the criminals on behalf of the victims and the FG which has responsibility for the highway on which they were assaulted. The bandits, even when primarily based in Kaduna, have become a national security threat; not a state’s menace. At any rate, the fact that state government officials met with the bandits in four different locations; and the names of their leaders are known, is positive proof of what many people have been suspecting all along. Some top level politicians are collaborating with these hoodlums. The most obvious questions are: who initiated the meetings?

The long story was not very clear on that. If the government, how were they able to locate the bandits who had been elusive from federal troops? If the bandits made the first move, how were they so certain that the government would keep their location secret? Most important of all, was the FG aware of the meetings? The most unfortunate aspect of the secret meetings was the fact that it has been tried before and it failed in Zamfara State. Former Governor Matawelle tried it in Zamfara State. He publicly announced that he personally carried N900 million to bandits in 300 forests in the state.

I recall my challenge to him; asking him to obtain a plane and get journalists from eight media houses to fly over the state and confirm if there are indeed 300 forests in the state. I know the geography of the state so well, there was no doubt in my mind that that the Governor was lying. Eventually, Matawelle admitted that he had been duped by the bandits he was trying to appease. He was not alone. Ex-Governor Masari of Katsina State also tried appeasement. It didn’t work; and he was honest enough to admit the failure of negotiations. El-Rufai set Kaduna on the road to hell when he again admittedly ran after violent herdsmen with state funds to compensate them for loss of their livestock, while farmers were left to suffer their own losses.

The truth is, bandits interpret it as a sign of weakness each and every time the authorities offer the olive branch. What would have happened to Israel if, after the attack by Hamas, the Israelis have called for negotiations to get the hostages released? Instead of appeasement Israel has ensured that Hamas and their supporters paid a heavy price. Rest assured, it will take more than 50 years, if not longer, before anybody in the Middle East dares Israel again. Appeasement never works.

That is why the FG should step in now and stop Governor Sani from continuing with this ill-advised approach to solving the problem. If, indeed, some of the bandits are tired of life on the run, they know what to do. They should go and surrender to the nearest military commander and face the consequences of their actions. They cannot dictate the terms of cessation of the hostilities which they started. Nobody should expect that he can abduct, torture, sexually assault and murder fellow Nigerians for money and expect to retire into peaceful life. That is unacceptable injustice to the victims and totally callous. As far as I am concerned, the only good bandit is a dead one.

ARE YOU WRITING A BOOK OR MANAGING AN ADVERT AGENCY?

 “Never be afraid or ashamed to ask for help.” That was one rule of success which has featured in every write-up I have read on the habits of successful people. Invariably, they also make it very clear that being wealthy is not the only sign of success. As a matter of fact, there are individuals who have been famous for long periods without being rich. Great scientists, political leaders, writers have lived longer in peoples’ memories than the richest men in their era. Mohammed Ali was just comfortable but not immensely rich by the time he died. Yet, he is remembered by more people than the richest man of his period.

Oglivy, advertising guru, remains top of the mind recall among advertising practitioners than all the rich people of his generation. Certainly, Achebe and Soyinka will live for longer in our minds than the billionaires we now hail. So, be prepared to reach for glory in your own chosen field of endeavour; but never be afraid to ask for help. Book-writing is a difficult task which most of us undertake alone. It shouldn’t be. My first two books took longer time than necessary because, I worked on them alone. I have learnt my lessons. Now, every book undertaken is done with assistance from other people.

My advice to writers is to get help in editing, research, fact-finding, indexing, even title selection. Given the right help, you will invariably be happy you did. The same is true of advertising agency management. One of the challenges facing those starting a new advertising agency is staffing problem. You find that you cannot afford to hire all the people you need to work full time. The best option is to out-source some of the functions to freelance workers who are paid per job assignment. Copy writers fall more readily into this category. Wordsmiths can help provide the words which would elevate the artwork to create a stunning advertisement. I once did this kind of work for advert agencies but gave it up in order to face writing books full time. ICT has shortened the time required to turn out books now; and reduced social activities have added to the time available to help writers and advertising agencies to turn out body copy.

ADVERTORIALS ALSO

“A lawyer, who has himself for a lawyer, has a fool for a lawyer.” The statement applies to anyone who is arguing his own case in the public domain. As a matter of personal policy, I never reply a rejoinder to an article published irrespective of how foul the language used against me – because it is very easy to get emotional in self-defence and lose track of the facts you want to present. Individuals and organisations sometimes find themselves publishing advertorials – especially when they feel offended or defamed.

Most of the time, the advertorial is packed full with insults and maledictions against the other party. Most people reading the advertorial stop reading before they reach the facts being presented. The “aggrieved party” loses the readers on account of excessive emotionalism. Under the circumstances, if you feel strongly enough to respond, my advice is this: state your case to a third party who can write well and let him/her produce the draft. You will be amazed at the result. If you need help, please call 0703-777-2952. You will be glad you did.

 NORTHERN BANDITRY ON THE RISE, WHY?

“Terrorists kill 4 at Kebbi immigration facility.”

“9 dead, many injured in Nasarawa attack,”

“Air strike kills 15 in Zamfara.”

“Gun men kill Benue after N5.4m ransom payment.”

As we are approaching the end of Tinubu’s second year, Nigeria is experiencing a wave of terrorist attacks similar to what occurred during Jonathan’s administration. That provided the political weapon for Buhari and the North to oust Jonathan who was labeled incompetent. Never mind that things got worse under Buhari; he still got second term and left “a peculiar mess” – apologies to the late Chief Adegoke Adelabu. Is Tinubu receiving the same treatment?

For the first time in two years, credit to the manufacturing sector recorded a quarterly decline in 2024, following weakening appetite for bank loans among manufacturers as a result of the continuous interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). In a bid to curtail the persistent rise in the inflation rate, the CBN in two years raised the benchmark interest rate, the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR, 13 times to 27.5 per cent November last year from 11.5% in April 2022. As a result, average maximum lending rates of banks rose to 31.06 per cent in November last year from 27.37 per cent in April 2022.

Vanguard investigations showed that the ensuing high interest rate regime has weakened appetite for bank loans among manufacturers. Industry experts and analysts, who confirmed this trend, said that manufacturers now either postpone investment decisions or seek alternatives to bank loans. Reflecting the impact of manufacturers’ apathy to bank loans, Credit to the Manufacturing fell by 6.67 percent, quarteron- quarter, QoQ to N8.67 trillion in the third quarter of 2024, Q3’24 from N9.29 trillion in the preceding quarter (Q2’24).

This represents the first quarterly decline in credit to the sector in two years since the third quarter of 2022, Q3’22. Analysis of the CBN statistics also showed that the credit allocation to the manufacturing sector maintained a quarterly upward trend from Q3’22 to Q2’24, before recording a decline in Q3’24. According to the apex bank, credit to manufacturers rose QoQ by 12.3 per cent to N5.10 trillion in Q3’22; and by 9.2 per cent to N5.57 trillion in Q4’22. This upward trend continued in 2023 as credit to the sector rose QoQ by 1.8 per cent to N5.67 trillion in Q1’23; by 23.1 per cent to N6.98 trillion in Q2’23; by 5.2 per cent to N7.34 trillion in Q3’23; and by 5.3 per cent to N7.73 trillion in Q4’23. Also in Q1’24, credit to manufacturers rose QoQ by 12.5 per cent to N8.70 trillion and again by 6.8 per cent to N9.29 trillion in Q2’24.

This upward trend was however reversed in Q3’24 when credit to the sector fell by 6.67 per cent to N8.67 trillion. Manufacturers seeking other funding options Speaking to Vanguard on this development, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said many manufacturers may have opted for other sources of funding because it does not make sense to take fresh facilities at interest rates above 39 percent.

He stated: “The manufacturing sector is struggling at this time and it has been like that for the past two years. The challenges facing the sector are enormous and, unfortunately, those challenges have not abated. There is the challenge of the foreign exchange (FX) issue. Many of our manufacturers are highly import dependent. So they are very vulnerable to this weak currency or high exchange rate.

“There is the challenge of energy costs, the challenge of cost of logistics, the challenge of clearing cargoes at the ports, particularly their raw materials, and there is the challenge of weak purchasing power of the citizens. “So, the combination of all these factors may have been responsible for the decline in the manufacturers’ demand for credit. And in any case, with interest rates at over 30 percent, I don’t think it makes sense for any manufacturer to take fresh facilities at that cost. It makes more sense for them to seek other sources of funding.

“Most of what we have in the books of the banks now as credit still outstanding to manufacturers are existing credits that they are still struggling to service. “Very few manufacturers, if at all will go for fresh facilities at these very prohibitive and outrageous interest rates. “So, this is what must have been responsible for the decline. We are hoping that 2025 will be better, so that the manufacturers can have breathing space.”

Yusuf emphasised the need for the CBN to moderate its market oriented monetary policy in order to protect the real sector of the economy. According to him, it will be difficult for any business in the real sector, especially manufacturers and farmers, to thrive with an interest rate of over 32 percent and currency depreciation that has moved from nearly N500 to a dollar in June 2023 to over N1,600 per dollar since the return to orthodox monetary policy. High lending rates, output dcline discourage borrowing for investment- MAN On his part, Director General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, stressed that the high lending rates coupled with other factors discourages borrowing to invest in manufacturing activities.

He said: “The 6.67% decline in credit to the manufacturing sector in Q3 2024 should not come as a surprise. There is hardly any positive indicator for the sector, as it has continued to struggle with increasing production cost and dwindling consumer purchases. “The sector is not insulated from the prevailing downturn in the economy occasioned by high energy cost, exorbitant exchange rate, escalating interest rate and rising inflation. These are disincentives to investment and expansion, and by extension, borrowing. “In specific terms, a high lending rate at above 30% would discourage borrowing to invest in manufacturing activities. Manufacturers mostly depend on credit to finance their operations, so when the cost of funding increases, they are less disposed to accessing credit.

“As I earlier mentioned, the astronomical increase in cost of power by 250%, together with incessant disruption decreases productivity and output, which also diminishes the loan appetite of the average manufacturer. When manufacturers produce less, they require less credit, and this will ultimately lead to a decline in credit to the sector.” stressed that the high lending rates coupled with other other factors discourages borrowing to invest in manufacturing activities He said: “The 6.67% decline in credit to the manufacturing sector in Q3 2024 should not come as a surprise. There is hardly any positive indicator for the sector, as it has continued to strugglewithincreasingproduction cost and dwindling consumer purchases. “The sector is not insulated from the prevailing downturn in theeconomyoccasionedbyhigh energycost, exorbitantexchange rate, escalating interest rate and rising inflation. These are disincentives to investment and expansion, and by extension borrowing. “Inspecificterms, ahighlending rate at above 30% would discourage borrowing to invest in manufacturingactivities.

Manufacturers mostly depend on credittofinancetheiroperations, so when the cost of funding increases, they are less disposed to accessing credit. “As I earlier mentioned, the astronomical increase in cost of power by 250%, together with incessant disruption decreases productivity and output, which also diminishes the loan appetite of the average manufacturer. When manufacturers produce less, they require less credit, and this with ultimately lead to a decline in credit to the sector.” Businesses postpone investment decisions Highlighting the various factors behind the decline in credit to the manufacturing sector in Q3’24, HeadofEquityResearch, FBNQuest Securities, Mr. Tunde Abidoye, said that the deceleration of credit growth to single digits can be attributed to the cautious stance of the banks, who are increasingly wary of accumulating non-performing loans (NPLs) in the context of a high-interest rate environment.

“According to data from CBN, banks ’NPLratiodeterioratedby 68 bps to c.4.58%, compared with 3.9% at the end of June 2024. “Beyond the banks’ conservative lending practices, another contributing factor may be the postponement of investment decisions by businesses, driven by the restrictive monetary policy implemented by the CBN. Also, analysts at Proshare noted that the growth in Nigeria’smanufacturing sector has been extremely modest in the past two years, reflecting the negative impact of the CBN’s hawkish monetary policy stance. They noted that in 2024, interest rates reached unprecedented levels, leading to elevated finance costs for numerous manufacturing companies. “Additionally, the high borrowing costs have significantly constrained the expansion of manufacturing activities. “Inflation has added a layer of pressure, as diminished purchasing power has resulted in lower sales volumes and output.

“The challenging macroeconomic conditions have led to several companies leaving Nigeria. In the first six months of last year, some manufacturing companies, including PZCussonsNigeria PLC, Kimberly-Clark Nigeria and Diageo Plc, exited the country, adding to the several multinationals that left in 2023. “In our view, the Federal Government must effectively implement feasible and proactive measures to encourage and boost production activities in the 13 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector, especially food, beverage and tobacco, cement, and textile apparel & footwear – the top 3 drivers.

[Vanguard]

Rejection is hard to accept, even more so from those who seem undeserving of the upper hand. For France and its former African colonies, this has led to bruised egos and impulsive actions that defy accountability.

To understand the depth of France’s roots in Africa, reference has to be made to the “Scramble for Africa” in the late 19th century, which saw European powers, including France, rapidly expand their territories. The Berlin Conference of 1884-1885 formalised this partitioning, allowing France to annex vast areas in West Africa, including present-day Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, Guinea, Ivory Coast, and Niger Republic.

During this period, French policies were driven by economic interests, focusing on resource extraction and agricultural production. The imposition of heavy taxes and forced labour systems led to widespread dissatisfaction among local populations, as they were often exploited for their labour without adequate compensation or support.

Discontent began to manifest more visibly after World War I. The war had significant implications for colonial subjects; many Africans served in the French army but returned home with heightened expectations for rights and representation. Little of this was met. 

A similar pattern followed World War II as notable shifts in attitudes towards colonial rule began to spread. By the late 1950s, widespread protests and uprisings were triggered across French West Africa, culminating in a wave of independence movements.

Naturally, France backed off and could only play its hands on its former colonies from faraway Europe. Successes were recorded in some areas, like economic interventions, while other cultural tactics to ingrain France back into the hearts of citizens did not yield much fruit.

“Universally, a colonial policy can only have negative effects on those who suffer from it,” Barry Diawadou, a geopolitics and diplomacy expert based in Guinea, told TheCable.

“Colonisation consists of the domination of a culture, of a system of thoughts over another culture. From this postulation, which defines the reality of the phenomenon, no form of colonisation can have positive impacts, especially when we add time and demographic factors.

“French-speaking countries tend to compare French colonisation to English, German, Portuguese, Spanish, and Dutch colonisation in Africa. From these comparisons, a trend emerges which establishes that French colonisation was the least successful in Africa.

“For example, in the concert of economic nations, apart from the French-speaking countries of the Maghreb, the most dynamic African economies remain the English-speaking countries.”

Diawadou said the relationship France had with its former territories was almost parasitic.

It was only a matter of time before the scales tipped against one of Europe’s strongest economies.

MACRON IN, ‘TERRORISM OUT’

France arguably maintained its distance in the face of the growing discontent, but not for long. Islamist militant groups began threatening the stability of the Sahel region, notably after the 2011 Arab Spring, with significant developments occurring in subsequent years. The Arab Spring was a wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that began in December 2010 and spread across the Middle East and North Africa. 

Soon, armed groups began to spread terror in the Sahel, killing hundreds and displacing thousands. Their sophisticated weapons were no match for armed forces maintained under weak budgets. 

The incursion saw Mali turn to France for help to combat the terrorists, with the primary goal of regaining control over territory and preventing further advances towards Bamako, the capital. France launched Operation Serval in January 2013 to achieve this.

Following the success of Operation Serval, which concluded in July 2014, France expanded its military presence in the region through Operation Barkhane, which commenced on August 1, 2014. This operation aimed to provide ongoing support to five Sahelian countries — Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania — collectively known as the G5 Sahel. 

“France’s military presence was effective. It is not demeaning to recognise this,” Diawadou added.

“For a very long time, it was able to deter rebel attacks, intrusion, and the proliferation of armed groups in these former colonies. But it is true that with the implosion of Libya and the resulting circulation of weapons in the Sahelio-Saharan strip, terrorist incursions have literally reached their peak.”

Initially, French operations were welcomed, but as insecurity persisted and public dissatisfaction with local governments grew, many began to associate France with ineffective governance and continued violence. 

The military juntas that came to power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic often used anti-French rhetoric to legitimise their rule, portraying France as complicit in the failures of previous administrations. They framed their actions as a rejection of both corrupt leadership and foreign interference, particularly targeting France for its perceived role in perpetuating instability through its military presence. France’s condemnation of the coups and a demand that democracy return did not sit well with the junta leaders.

Soon, they began to eject French troops out of their countries, starting with Mali, which first sought the European country’s help, then to Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad. They turned to Russia and China for military and economic cooperation.

FAR-RIGHT POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES COMPOUNDING MATTERS

Late last year, Senegal and Ivory Coast, both democratic nations, joined the growing list of former French territories snipping ties with France after they announced in November their plans to expel French troops.

The announcement came as a shock considering that the countries did not have a “solid reason”, such as growing coups or worsening Islamist militants in their nations. 

Diawadou explained that the discontent grew from the growing far-right politics in France and its ideologies.

Diery Diagne, a journalist and disinformation researcher in Senegal, affirmed Diawadou’s position.

“The Senegalese are more and more developing sentiments of rejecting France,” Diagne told TheCable.

“Senegalese citizens are open to collaboration with all countries. But they want to see on the part of the partners that they respect the interest of Senegal,” she added, noting that Senegal’s turn away from France is to seek a “win-win” collaboration.

In many African nations, political movements have historically leaned towards leftist ideologies that emphasise socialism or anti-imperialism. Leaders often advocate for national sovereignty, economic independence from former colonial powers, and social equity.

Far-right parties, on the other hand, often emphasise nationalism, advocating for strict immigration controls and prioritising the interests of native populations over immigrants. 

With far-right politics emerging in France, particularly under the leadership of parties like the National Rally, a sharp discontent is stemming from concerns over the implications of immigration policies, human rights, and France’s historical relationships with its former colonies.

“Some cooperation agreements, particularly in economic matters, are considered far too unbalanced and not to the advantage of African countries,” Diawadou said.

“As examples, there are big gaps with the following topics: the purchase price of raw material, the local content issue, technology transfer, and the revenue sharing between partners.

“If you add the political climate in France and the feelings of Africans who feel rejected and deprived of their most basic rights in their quest to obtain housing and a job in France, you will easily understand why many Africans no longer believe in the French model and privileged cooperation with France. 

“Every day, African civil society observes and notes the decline in the rights of their peers in France, not only through the international media and certain French media, which clearly display their political positioning, but also through the stories of Africans on social networks.”

MACRON WIDENS DISTANCE WITH ‘UNGRATEFUL’ COMMENTS

While the rejection ripple has continued to spread, Macron has refused to take the hit.

In a speech to French ambassadors gathered at the Elysee Palace, the president described Sahelian leaders as ungrateful.

He said France was right in 2013 for its intervention to fight Islamist militants “even if those same states had now moved away from French military support”.

The French president dismissed the notion that his country had been kicked out of the Sahel region, insisting that France left after citizens decided that they no longer wanted to prioritise combating terrorism.

“France no longer belonged there because we are not at the beck and call of coup leaders,” he added.

He said Sahelian leaders forgot to thank France for combatting terrorism but expressed optimism that one day it would come.

Nina Wilen, an analyst at the Belgian Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, said Macron’s remarks were likely a strategic error.

“It’s hard to know whether these are thought-through comments.” Wilen said, “or whether it’s something that he wants to get out there because he feels that it’s the correct thing to do.”

“But, for sure, there are quite a few French officials and military officers who are working hard to shed the image that France has in Africa as an arrogant former colonial power.

“Comments like these made by Macron really undermine their efforts in doing this.”

Last week’s ascension to the Alaafin of Oyo throne by then Prince Abimbola Akeem Owoade courted tremendous ruckus in Yorubaland. Why would an unseen Ifa deity and its cloudy, ancient system of divination choose an Alaafin? Implicated in the back-and-forth that followed was 92-year old Ògúnwán̄dé Abím̄bọ́lá, professor of Yoruba language and literature and one-time vice chancellor of the University of Ife, now Obafemi Awolowo University. In 1981, a conclave of Ifa priests in Yorubaland anointed Abimbola as the Àwísẹ Awo Àgbàyé (World Ifa Priest). He was then investitured by the late Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade.

It was to this man I headed on Sunday, January 12. Àwísẹ had given a 1pm appointment for an interview session to which me and two newspaper editor friends of mine – Lasisi Olagunju and Saheed Salawu – responded.

In one week or so, the fierce war between tradition and modernity became manifest. Where else could the war be waged other than Oyo Alaafin, a place which prides itself as the locus of traditional Yoruba society? Oyo was the centrifugal point where traditional power, culture, language, history collaged. When those powers were collapsed by British forces, Oyo manifested how the vapour of the powers drifted away. It was home to traditional heritage, political authority, power and influence. The power of its monarchy was awesome. Today, Oyo is a fragile carcass of the awesome and imposing Oyo Empire founded in the late 14th or early 15th century. That empire grew, in the words of historians, to become “the largest and most powerful of the forest states of West Africa.”

From its Old Oyo, located somewhere in the Savannah below the bend of the River Niger in the Bussa-Jebba area which was abandoned in 1835, Oyo showcased an extremely impressive internal organization, imposing military strength with the Alaafin as an Emperor. Alaafin, who was the sole king in Yoruba land, reigned over a vast empire. He was the sole king to bear the appellation, ‘His Imperial Majesty’, had governors called Ajele in all the regions. These governors ruled as suzerains from areas that extended as far as to the Popos, Dahomey, and parts of Ashanti, with portions of the Tapas and Baribas. Dahomey is in the present Benin Republic. The Alaafin also had Ilari, messengers who kept the Ajele in check from excessive wielding of power.

Àwísẹ himself affirmed the traditional truism which says that, one major way to ascertain the potency of one’s Ogun deity is to hit its metal insignia on the head. Unbeknown to Abimbola, that was what he literally did. On arriving at the ancient city of Oyo, how could his home be located? The Ifa priest merely told the journalist, “just tell anyone in Oyo town that you’re heading to my house.” The priest was dead right. “Follow me” was the simple retort from an Okada rider when asked for the description of the Ifa priest’s abode. In few minutes, we were inside an expansive compound which, from its outside, you needed not being told you were in the home of a quintessential traditional worship czar.

Oyo had been very cool this Sunday. It was oblivious to the social media uprising over its new king. As you drove past Ibadan, the state capital city, you felt the flavour of driving northwards in the air. The mangrove receded, giving way to an arid temperature and weather. A few kilometres from Oyo, a heap of dirt by the roadside confronted you, shattering the sanity of the beautiful forest zone. In this particular place, you could feel the texture of absent environmental enforcement and a people sworn to a life of filth. Then, a long file of articulated vehicles lined the highway, with northern traders surrounding this particular roadside. These telltale signs announced that our northern brothers hibernated there. They were dead to the stench of the heaps of filth and the diseases they harbour. They were almost indistinguishable from their dirty heaps.

Drummers welcome guests into what looked like Abím̄bọ́lá’s own palace. And a black statue, presumably of the Ifa priest, sat regally in the expansive compound, dead to the curious stares onlookers give it. The compound itself was home to a number of houses. It was built like a typical African family compound – agbo ile – with houses within it. The only difference is that this compound comprises semi-modern apartments.

Promptly, we were ushered into the Àwísẹ Awo Àgbàyé’s own section of the compound. He sat regally on a black-coloured elevated chair that mimics a king’s stool. He was dressed in an all-white attire, a brown native cap clinging to his low-cut grey-haired head. He had a dangling ring of coloured beads on his neck, with an elephant tusk-like traditional Ifa priest whisk, an insignia of office called Iroke, which he held in his hand. He flung this momentarily as the whisk makes a whooshing noise. Three white-headed effigies surrounded his seat, sitting regally on the terrazzoed sound. Once in a while, Awise dashed out to attend to the milling crowd of Ifa devotees who needed his attention, like the Oluwo of Oke and Isale Oyo. His brisk sprint, which belied his 92-year age, was an awesome spectacle to behold. His wife, a Causasian Ifa priestess, Iyanifa Ajisebo (one vast in daily spiritual offering and sacrifices) Mcllwaine, sat on the next black chair to him, pounding glibly on a Mic laptop. She occasionally lent her voice to conversations, especially when her husband demanded affirmation of a particular anecdote.

At a time, some Ifa priests divining within the premises came to ask Àwísẹ about a divination process and Iyanifa Ajisebo offered to go bring her own divination ring (opele) and Àwísẹ’s to the priests so as to aid their divination process. The living room was over-decorated with photographs hung on its walls. Abimbola’s parents’, as well as ones he took with Alaafin Lamidi Adeyemi, Oba Okunade Sijuwade, late Ooni of Ife, Pope Benedict, Deoscóredes Maximiliano dos Santos, alias Mestre Didi of Brazil and many more photographs majestically flaunted the fact that we were in the home of an iconic man of history.

Even at 92 years of age, a scholar of reputable intellectual prowess and achievements, who was vice chancellor and senator, Abimbola still mirrored the humility that his Yoruba race was known for. When he returned from his occasional dashing out which punctuated our interview session, at each of his returns, Abimbola bowed to his audience, all of whom his children were older than, mouthing the deep Yoruba greeting, “e ku ikale o”.

Professor Abimbola told us how he began divination and how he was taught by a Baba Lejoogun in Akeetan, Oyo, as well as how he was almost beaten by his colleague senators one day at the federal parliament. “It was God that prevented them from beating me. They could have beaten me but for who I am. O si ye, o bo, eegun o gbodo na babalawo” (It is beyond them; a masquerade must not beat a Babalawo).” he said. When asked what if they had beaten him, he said so little but so much, “Beat me? Parara l’ewe koko o ya. Parara (cocoyam leaf gets torn terribly; terribly is cocoyam leaf torn)” he replied.

On his role in the choice of the Alaafin, Baba Abimbola said: “I did not insist on the choice of the candidate, the kingmakers approved him. It turned out that the candidate is a good man when his file was presented. We did the divination a long time ago and as an academic, I wrote a 21-page report on the divination process. When they called me four or five days ago, I asked for the report. They said maybe it was with the governor and things like that. They asked if I remembered the name of number one (the first candidate). ‘But I wrote a 21-page report! Then I sent for my wife, with whom I carried out the divination process…She fished out a copy of the report. I did not choose the Alaafin, the kingmakers did. Ifa chose the person and they approved him. They expressed satisfaction with the choice. Maybe they had been scrutinizing him all this while to find out if he had done something wrong in a previous workplace or committed any kind of wrong before.”

We were then interjected by a group of Ifa worshipers who came to pay obeisance to the Awise. They laid prostrate on their bellies while the Awise prayed for them, flinging his Iroke intermittently, “Ifa will fight for us… We will not fall into calamity. I pay respect to you. As we live to see this year, all of us and our families will celebrate more on earth”, which he said in Yoruba as “Ifa o se’gbe fun wa o… Aa ni si se. Mo gba fun yin o. As’odun yi, a o se’min t’omo t’omo, t’aya t’aya,” he prayed. Then he punctuated the prayers with the poetry that accompanies Ifa divination. Its alliteration, rhyme and onomatopoeia were fascinating and the rhythm enchanting to listen to. Awise, with a mellifluous voice, then began to chant the poetry of Ifa, which to a non-initiate sounded like gibberish

“Kekenke l’awo kekenke, gegenge l’awo gegenge,

A d’ifa fun Orimonike omo atorunke waye.

Ifa moo ke mi, o ge mi o; gege l’adiye nke’yin…”

At any point the Awise’s reference came to someone who had departed, a sobriety instantly overwhelmed him and his head dropped on his chest. For instance, when he referenced Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife, an SDP governor of Anambra State, he said he heard Ezeife had ‘gone to the Ogun deity shrine’ – “Idi Ogun” – Ifa diviners’ own way of euphemizing death and the dead.

Abimbola, the teacher, spent every minute of this session doing what he knew how to do best. While explaining how the former governor of Ogun State, Olusegun Osoba, attempted to bring sanity into the scramble for the Senate Majority seat of the Third Republic senate, as the Awise mentioned “Osoba” he taught all gathered that the pronunciation we were used to was faulty. “Oso,” he said, was the name of a deity, so the name is Oso-ba, just like Oso-nimore, the name of another deity, he said.

When asked why he doesn’t take alcohol, Abimbola had an Ifa poetry which named alcohol and all its local variants Oguro, emu and oti as “amuwagun eni,” – refiner of character. In other words, said the priest, Ifa does not frown at alcohol but hates over-indulgence in its consumption.

Abimbola said there was no knowledge that is as in-depth as the Ifa corpus in the world. It is a knowledge, he said, that is taught to a youngster for 20 years. Odu Ifa, he said, is 256 and the story in each of the Odu is 800. Thus, to know the stories in Ifa, you will need to multiply 256 by 800. “For example, in a university, if a postgraduate student wants to write a paper on everything Ifa says on cockroach, the student may need to visit about 20 babalawos, because the stories that Ifa tells on cockroach may be about one thousand. Stories on worm may be two thousand, and stories on a particular bird like Opeere may be one thousand. Ifa is a compendium of the experience of Yoruba people throughout the ages; experience about animals, trees and various mountains, about forests, about fish, about seas, about us, humans. It’s a whole library. This is the same Ifa that they are trying to extinguish, but it will not become extinguished in my lifetime.

“If Ifa becomes extinct, it is we, the Yoruba, that go extinct. There are no other people in the world who have the like of it. What they may have is part of what has been written down. I will tell you the reason why our forefathers did not write things down. If one begins to write things down, one’s mind will not be sharp again to remember. Writing things down may is an enemy of memory. People around the world invite me to come and give talks. Pope Benedict XVI invited me three times. He once invited me alongside other religious leaders from Japan, India, Russia, Syria, as well as the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Jewish religious leader,” he said.

By now, we had spent close to four hours of literally worshipping by the feet of Àwísẹ Awo Àgbàyé. We didn’t want to let go of one another. Baba Abimbola thoroughly enjoyed our first-time acquaintance while we relished his. He left a statement that rang in my subconscious as we prostrated in obeisance to him, ready to leave his home, his Iroke flaffing in salute. “Yoruba are standing by as they want to leave us in ruins – Won fe pa wa run l’e nworan!”, he shouted, his voice laced with a genuine agony. “Identity walks on two legs like a human being,” he said again, and continuing, Abimbola told us, “If they take Ifa, our identity, away from us, they have taken Yoruba from the face of the earth”. Awise then recited a traditional Ijala poetry chant of an uncle of his named Adeyemo, who he said, as far back as 1945, lamented that the culture, religion and language of Yoruba people were going extinct. Adeyemo, said Awise, described the potential collapse of Yoruba language, culture, religion and ways of life as “Kungu fo!” It was too dense for me to attempt an interpretation.

As we bade Awise bye, on the verge of leaving the ancient Oyo town, we prayed to Ifa to help us see Awise again so that we could drink, yet again, from the purity of his brooks of ancient knowledge and wisdom.

Colonial occupation and domination prospered by abducting and liquidating the most vocal Africans. Those whom it drove into exile were lucky. Sir Evelyn Baring invented the manual on this form of predation as governor of colonial Kenya for seven years until 1959. Six decades after independence, the man who rode to power in Nairobi two years ago by promising to make Kenya great again is unapologetically reprising Sir Evelyn’s manual minus the internment camps.

In June 2021, Abubakar Malami, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and Nigeria’s Federal Attorney-General, announced with some relish that Nnamdi Kanu - self-proclaimed leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) - had been returned to Nigeria after being “intercepted” in an un-named location. Malami had initiated the prosecution of Mr Kanu in 2015 for treason. In April 2017, the courts granted bail to Kanu. Five months later, he disappeared from public view after soldiers raided his country home in Abia State in south-east Nigeria leading to scores of fatalities. The following month, Mr Kanu was reportedly sighted in Jerusalem.

The circumstances of Mr Kanu’s return to Nigeria in 2021 degenerated quickly from mystery to controversy. The International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL), whom Nigeria initially credited with assistance in the “interception”, firmly denied any involvement in the operation.
When he announced the “interception” of Mr Kanu, Attorney-General Malami claimed that it was accomplished by the “collaborative efforts of Nigerian intelligence and security services.” In October 2022, however, Nigeria’s Court of Appeal found as a fact that Mr Kanu “was in Kenya; was abducted therefrom and there were no extradition proceedings undertaken before his forcible abduction.”

Kenya unconvincingly denied involvement in the abduction. Very importantly, however, the Government of Kenya (GOK) offered no protest against what, was a spectacular violation of its sovereignty. The conclusion had to be that the GOK authorised Mr Kanu’s abduction from its territory. Prior and subsequent conduct by the GOK provide ample evidence to support this.

On 2 February 2018, operatives of Kenya’s security services used explosives to gain entrance into the premises of former student leader and lawyer, Miguna Miguna, from where they abducted him into detention incommunicado. After several days of keeping him out of circulation, they drove Dr Miguna to the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi, where they declared him a “prohibited immigrant” and deported him to Canada.

As a prominent student leader during the regime of President Daniel Arap Moi in the 1980s, Miguna was exiled to Canada. From there he sought several times without success, to renew his Kenyan nationality documents. Canada eventually granted him refugee status and he travelled initially under documentation provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees before eventually being forced to acquire Canadian nationality.
Upon returning to Kenya in 2007, Dr Miguna enrolled as a lawyer; served as senior adviser to the Prime Minister and subsequently ran for high public office. It was not in dispute that his parents were Kenyans or that he was Kenyan by birth and descent. In a decision on 14 December 2018, the High Court of Kenya found that the government of Kenya abducted and deported Dr Miguna “despite court orders directing that he be produced in court,” noting that “it is inconceivable that the state can deport its own citizen to a second country without due regard to the constitution and the law.”

William Ruto was Kenya’s Vice-President when Mr Kanu and Dr Miguna were abducted. In 2022, he became president.
On 16 November 2024, leading Ugandan opposition politician, Dr Kiza Besigye, who was in Nairobi to attend the launch of a book by former Kenyan Justice Minister and senior lawyer, Martha Karua, disappeared. Five days later, he surfaced before a military tribunal in the custody of the Uganda Peoples Defence Force (UPDF) on fanciful charges of illegal possession of firearms. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, expressed shock at “the abduction of Ugandan opposition politician Kiza Besigye on 16 November 2024 in Kenya and his forcible return to Uganda.”

Dr Besigye’s experience was not the first abduction of Ugandan opposition in Kenya. In July 2024, Kenya’s security services similarly snatched 36 members of Dr Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) who were in the country for a meeting and expelled them to Uganda into the arms of the UPDF, who promptly charged them with “terrorism” before a military tribunal. The United Nations later expressed concern that President Museveni’s practice in Uganda of charging civilians before military tribunals was “in contravention of the country’s obligations under international human rights law.”

In October 2024, Kenyan authorities similarly abducted seven Turkish refugees and refouled them back to Turkey into the arms of the government that had exiled them.
In the period since the anti-Finance Bill protests in the country from June to December 2024, Kenya’s National Human Rights Commission has reported the abduction and disappearance of at least 82 persons. Some of the abducted have turned up dead. When young people in Nigeria protested two months after their colleagues in Kenya, the Nigerian government decided to borrow a leaf from President Ruto’s playbook.

Back in Nairobi, one of the victims of these abductions by the GOK was Leslie Muturi. His father, Justin Bedan Muturi was Cabinet Secretary (Minister) for Public Service in President Ruto’s government. Around June 22, 2024, Leslie Muturi disappeared. At the time, his father, Justin, was the Attorney-General of Kenya and sat in the National Security Council with the Director of National Intelligence Service, Noordin Haji.

In the past week, Justin Muturi has narrated how his effort to locate his son took him through the entrails of the High Command of Kenya’s deep state to the presence of his boss, President Ruto, who ordered Noordin Haji to release Leslie. Less than an hour thereafter., Leslie returned to his family.
Justin Muturi’s clinical account of what transpired in the disappearance of his son clearly establishes the culpability of Kenya’s president and the security high command under him in resuscitating a culture of state-sponsored abductions redolent of the worst excesses of Sir Evelyn Baring’s colonial era abuses.
After denying culpability last November, President Ruto promised on 28 December 2024 to end the abductions, in effect admitting state complicity. Two days later, the continental human rights body of the African Union expressed “profound alarm over reports of abductions and enforced disappearances in Kenya.”

Less than a fortnight into the New Year, Tanzania’s leading independent journalist, Maria Sarungi Tsehai, survived an abduction from a shopping mall in Nairobi. Ms Tsehai and her family have been exiled in Kenya for over four years. Maria was lucky. Two years earlier, Kenyan police officers murdered exiled Pakistani journalist, Arshad Sharif, in Nairobi. Despite a court order and appeals by the United Nations, his killers continue to escape accountability.

When they re-established the East African Community in 1999, the original partner states in East Africa - Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda - desired to advance transactional life and spaces in the region. Under current leadership, however, these states are now using regional integration to advance the expendability of African civic and transactional life. They are collaborating across inter-state borders to liquidate critics and perceived enemies and make their lives precarious.
It seems clear that these abductions in Kenya are taking place under the direct command of the government or, even more frightening, have been outsourced to non-state actors acting under the authority and protection of the State. The latter may explain the intractable nature of the abductions and the inability of Ruto’s GOK to bring the crime under control despite the assurances of the President and the escalating diplomatic costs and investment runs.

This was hardly what Kenyans or the rest of Africa hoped for when the people chose President Ruto’s vision of a “hustler” nation over the other options in Kenya’s 2022 presidential election. The only hustle now under his watch is the hustling of innocent citizens and visitors into enforced disappearance and exile. Sir Evelyn must feel exceedingly proud of William Ruto from the comfort of his grave.

A lawyer and a teacher, Odinkalu can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

With only 15 months left for banks to meet the deadline for the new share capital benchmarks, the Central Bank has warned that the March 2026 deadline will not be shifted. Speaking to this writer, a CBN director said, ‘’the idea of extension or shift of the deadline does not arise. They were given more than two years to meet the new threshold, and by our calculations, that is enough time. We are not contemplating an extension’’. So far, of Nigeria’s 36 lenders, only Access Holdings has concluded the capital raising exercise, bringing in a little over N351 billion from its Rights Issue of 17.772 billion shares that sold for N19.75 per share. The offer closed in August. With this, Access Bank has thus become the first to meet the CBN’s N500 billion minimum capital requirements for Banks with International Authorization well ahead of the March 2026 regulatory deadline. The bank’s share capital would increase to N600 billion, N100 billion above the regulatory minimum requirement.

 For the other 35 banks, the next one year will be a crowded and busy period. A few have gone far while many others are yet to make appreciable progress. Some like the other four tier one lenders – GT; UBA; First Bank and Zenith – have already announced their offers, but are yet to conclude the process, others, especially the small regional and some national banks are still lagging behind. There have been a host of challenges, though, even among the big ones. FBN Holdings, the parent company of First Bank, has had its programme slowed down considerably by Boardroom crisis. The long drawn battle between Femi Otedola and Oba Otudeko for the control of the company has just been settled, with Otedola emerging chairman of the holding company. While Zenith Bank has had to juggle both capital raising with reconstituting itself into a holding company at the same time, GT Bank has just survived a major service disruption and customer backlash due to migration to a new IT platform.

 To meet the new capital requirement, the banks are expected to go for public offers; rights issues; private placements; mergers and acquisitions or a combination of these. In terms of mergers and acquisitions, there are indications that two banks, Providus and Unity, are in talks to merge together. Both are national banks, but with a combined market share of less than 20 per cent in terms of deposit liabilities. Providus has a huge Lagos State shareholding just as Northern State governments hold huge interests in Unity Bank. ‘’That’s the only discussions in the market for now for mergers and acquisition; but I won’t be surprised if more candidates join the discussions in the next few months’’, said a senior executive of a bank.

 Younger and better managed banks seem to be doing better generating new capital. Nixon Iwedi, executive director of Globus Bank said his bank is on track to meet the deadline. ‘’We are raising N150 billion through a private placement and Rights Issue. The first has been successfully completed and we are on the second phase now’’, he said, noting that they prefer to approach the process in a rather quiet and restrained manner. Globus has a national license and the minimum for this category is N200 billion.

 For Access Holdings, the process has become quite a momentous. It has become the first Nigerian financial holding company to successfully execute a fully digital Rights Issue embracing the power of technology to improve access to equity capital market. By leveraging the NGX’s E-offer platform, the company provided its shareholders with a convenient and efficient subscription process, leading to the participation of many of its retail shareholders in addition to institutional investors. Speaking on the successful offer, Board Chairman Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, said: “The Access brand has always resonated strongly with the local and international capital markets. Since 2004, Access Bank has raised billions of dollars in capital to meet successive CBN recapitalization directives. We are pleased that this time we are the first to breast the tape. The success of the Rights Issue demonstrates the resilience of Nigeria’s capital market and reinforces our shareholders confidence in the present value and potential of our company’’.

 While a few banks are already set on a course of action to meet the deadline, many others are still weighing their options. As a CEO pointed out to me, ‘’it is too early to understand the options that they would explore. It would become clearer as we get into the second half of 2025’’.

Nonetheless, the Nigerian capital market has once again demonstrated capacity and depth to meet the expectations of investors, issuers and professionals. We saw this during the indigenization programme of Gen. Yakubu Gowon; the privatization programme of Gen. Babangida and the consolidation programme of President Obasanjo. Its mutualization a decade ago also signified the market’s ability to adapt to change.

We wish to clarify that the recent adjustment in our ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) is directly related to the significant increase in global crude oil prices. As crude remains the primary input in the production of PMS, any fluctuation in its international price inevitably impacts the cost of the finished product. At Dangote Petroleum Refinery, we recognise the critical importance of affordable fuel for all Nigerians, and we remain committed to offering the best value with guaranteed quality to our customers. While we have made a 5% adjustment to our ex-depot price from N899.50 to N950 per litre, it is important to note that this increase is considerably lower than the 15% rise in global crude oil prices, which has seen Brent Crude rise from $70 to $82 in a matter of days, in addition to the premium for Nigerian crude (approximately $3 per barrel) in international markets. Furthermore, Dangote Refinery has maintained the Single-Point Mooring (SPM) ex-vessel price at N895 per litre.

All our partners, including Ardova, Heyden, and MRS Holdings, will offer petrol to Nigerians at a retail price of N970 per litre nationwide. We have absorbed the increased logistics costs to guarantee uniform pricing across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Dangote Refinery has absorbed approximately 50% of the cost increases in the international oil market. This is due to our unwavering commitment to quality and affordability, as well as the ownership of the refinery by Nigerians, which remain central to our mission. If Dangote Refinery were to pass on the entire increase in the price of crude oil to the market, the retail price of PMS would be approximately N1,150 to N1,200 per litre in some locations, compared to the current price of N970 per litre.

We are committed to providing reliable, top-quality petrol to the Nigerian people at competitive prices. In these challenging times, we continue to prioritise the best interests of Nigerians, striving to shield consumers from the full impact of global price volatility while adapting to evolving market conditions. 

We sincerely appreciate the continued trust and support of Nigerians as we strive to deliver the best value for their money and contribute to the development of a self-sufficient economy that is resilient to international price fluctuations.

In the interest of transparency and good governance, Dangote Refinery will commence publishing its ex-depot price, ex-vessel price as well as pump price on a weekly basis so that consumers are not exploited.

We would like to express our gratitude to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the introduction of the visionary Naira for Crude Initiative. This groundbreaking initiative has enabled consistent access to high-quality PMS for all Nigerians, while also insulating the Nigerian consumers from the volatility of the global oil market. 

Anthony Chiejina,

Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer