Admin

Admin

Under the Privatisation and Commercialisation Act, the Vice President is the chairman of the National Council on Privatisation (NCP), a body that is charged with overseeing the privatisation and commercialisation of public enterprises. 

In utter breach of the Act, President Olusegun Obasanjo sidelined Vice President Atiku Abubakar and took over the privatisation of a number of public enterprises. 

On May 17, 2007, President Obasanjo sold a 51% stake in the Port Harcourt refinery to Bluestar Oil for US$561 million. In another transaction that took place on May 28, 2007, President Obasanjo sold 51% shares in Kaduna Refinery to Bluestar Oil for $160 million. 

Bluestar Oil was a consortium of three domestic companies, including Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil, and Transcop. Before the deal, President Obasanjo had acquired large shares in Transcorp through "blind trust." Many interest groups in the country questioned the legal validity and moral propriety of the sales as they were consummated in the last days of the Obasanjo Administration. 

The two powerful trade unions in the oil industry —the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) kicked against the privatisation of the two refineries on grounds of conflict of interest and lack of due process.

They also alleged that the nation had been shortchanged as the shares acquired in the Port Harcourt refinery for $516 million were worth US$5 billion. 

Convinced that the deals were not in the national interest, both unions proceeded on a 4-day strike that almost paralysed the Nigerian economy in June 2007. 

The strike was called off based on the assurance of the federal government to the effect that the deals would be fully investigated.

Upon the conclusion of the investigation by the federal government, the purported privatisation of the Port Harcout and Kaduna refineries was cancelled by President Umaru Yar’adua. It is on record that the cancellation of the privatisation was not challenged in any court as it was carried out contrary to the letter and spirit of the Privatisation and Commercialisation Act. 

The Alliance on Surviving Covid and Beyond (ASCAB) hereby calls on NUPENG and PENGASSAN to intensify their historical struggle aimed at as a counterpoise to the renewed campaign for the privatisation of the nation’s refineries.  

Those who are awaiting the privatisation of the refineries in a manner at variance with the national interest should be advised to set up their own refineries like the Dangote Group.  

 

 

Femi Falana SAN,

The Chair,

Alliance on Surviving 

Covid 19 and Beyond 

(ASCAB).

Warning by the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to Nigerians not to expect the passage of the 2025 budget before January 31, 2025 aptly foretells the uncertainty and gloom that will mark the country’s 2025 economic outlook. Chairman, Senate Committee on Media and Publicity, Yemi Adaramodu, said in Abuja that the joint committee of the Senate and House of Representatives on Appropriation would start meeting on January 7, 2025 to take budget defense by heads of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).

He said the earliest the outcome of the joint committee work would be presented for consideration by the Senate would be January 31, 2025. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on Wednesday, December 18, 2024; exactly two weeks to the end of the year. This is contrary to the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) 2007 which stipulates that the Appropriation Bill shall be presented by the President to the National Assembly not later than September 30th of each year.

This late presentation of the national budget by Mr. President connotes the country’s relapse into distorted and uncertain budget cycle, contrary to the regular January to December fiscal year. A national budget is a crucial comprehensive financial plan which outlines a country’s projected income (revenue) and expenses (expenditures) over a fiscal year.

A national budget plays a critical role in shaping a country’s economic policies, allocating resources and promoting sustainable economic growth. It will usually contain the fiscal planning, providing for infrastructural development, debt management (borrowing, repayment, and debt servicing); projecting inflation, interest rates, crude oil production and price levels.

In all jurisdictions, the existence of the national budget makes for transparency and accountability in government spending, ensuring that funds are used efficiently and effectively. Therefore, for each fiscal year, it is the running budget that provides the guide and direction of socio-economic progress or otherwise of the nation.

As it were for Nigeria, that the ‘life’ of the 2024 budget is being extended to some months into 2025 clearly shows the dangers ahead. The socio-political and economic factors at play in 2024 are not necessarily the same for 2025; which is why the budget assumptions for 2025 are markedly different from those of the previous years.

The 2024 budget assumed an inflation rate of 21 per cent; but all through the year, hyperinflationary trend persisted—such that by end-November 2024, the rate stood at 34.6 per cent. Most disturbingly, rather than the Government making an assumption for 2025 in tandem with the spiking inflation rate trend, its 2025 budget proposal carries an utterly unrealistic assumed inflation rate of 15 per cent!

This inflation rate (15 per cent) presents the entire 2025 budget proposal as being built on faulty foundation. This is because more than ever before, the factors driving the high inflationary trend remain very potent. Food scarcity/insecurity in Nigeria is yet at its worst: leading to over 40 per cent food inflation for several consecutive months this year.

Imported inflation also remains active, essentially because of the crashing of the Naira in the foreign exchange (FX) market. The more the quantum of the local currency deployed to procuring the dollar for importation of raw materials, machineries and other inputs, the more costly the finished products—locally. This is a cost-push factor.

The fiscal operations of the Government as well as a huge ‘informal’ economy also lead to so much money in circulation—a lot outside the financial system. This obviously remains one of the core drivers of the high inflationary trend in the economy. In part, this account for why the fight against high inflation by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), using hikes in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has yielded little or no results.

Again, on the part of the Government, it is also too hypothetical to project that crude oil production in 2025 will stand at 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd). In reality, Nigeria in several years has not been able to hit oil production level of 1.5 mbpd. Indeed, the 2024 budget is based on 1.78 mbpd production level—but has never been achieved.

Given what has been happening in the oil and gas sector in Nigeria (and globally) in recent times, it is overly ambitious/optimistic to attain such a huge jump in oil production volume. Raging oil theft, pervasive pipeline vandalism, massive organized sabotage, coupled with energy transition that has seen most International Oil Companies (IOCs) leaving Nigeria in droves—all pose deadly threats to the sector. 

According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production level which stood at 1.4 mbpd in October 2024, only inched up to 1.41 mbpd in November. It is therefore rather otiose or whimsical for the Government to propose the 2025 budget based on an oil production level of 2.06mbpd.

It also beats the imagination as to how the Federal Government arrived at using an exchange rate of N1500 to the US dollar as basis for the 2025 budget. This is as against the subsisting exchange rate of about N1700/$; and which is very likely to deteriorate further in the months ahead.

Indeed, a reputable investment and research company—Afrinvest—in its latest study, has projected that the Naira will depreciate to N1804/$ at the official window of the FX market in 2025. Afrinvest said that it anticipates “that exchange rate volatility would persist in 2025, albeit at a modest pace. Our prognosis is hinged on the belief that the CBN would be constrained from adequately meeting market demand on a consistent basis, as the recent FX reserves accretion was largely driven by inflows from inorganic sources, including those with stringent conditions on usability.”

Afrinvet’s report titled “Beyond the Rhetoric: Transforming Reforms to Tangibles,” detailed a number of factors that could drive the anticipated decline of Naira in the FX market. In this regard it needs be noted that a chunk of the FX reserves is majorly inflow from Foreign Portfolio Investors (FDIs), drawdowns on foreign loans and proceeds of dollar bonds.

The much anticipated rise in oil proceeds is yet to materialize due to the scorching constraints facing the sector; non-oil export is also not experiencing a boom yet. Neither is much coming into Nigeria via Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)—owing to the obviously uncompetitive business environment. No wonder, Nigeria has been witnessing an exodus of many blue chip companies.

Continued dissonance over some critical policies will certainly put a drag on the economy in 2025, and thereafter. Specifically, President Tinubu’s hard stance on the Tax Reform Bills already before the National Assembly is opposed to inclusivity and negotiation. A number of critical stakeholders have called for the withdrawal of those Bills for more consultations and deliberations: the National Economic Council (NEC), Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) and several geo-political groups, to name a few. 

Without a doubt, whatever becomes of those Bills stand to rub off positively or otherwise on the Nigerian economy in 2025 and beyond. Unfortunately, Mr. President’s pronouncement on those Bills during his maiden media chat recently amounted to foreclosure of further discussions on them. Even if the Bills end up being forced down the throat of economic agents, there could be massive hidden resistance to realizing their intendments.  

On the background of all these is the existential threat posed by insecurity in the land. Although the insecurity in the country is shrouded in propaganda, in reality the fragile situation is a serious counterpoise to meaningful investment drive. In all climes, security of life and property is a prerequisite for FDIs and other investment inflows.

In all, it will take something like a miracle for the Nigerian economy to make any appreciable progress in 2025, given the factors analyzed above. In particular, the ‘faulty’ foundation of the 2025 budget makes it prone to a multiplicity of pitfalls. It’s all a leap in the dark!

 

The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos.  

 

         

 

 

 

    

 

 

The Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr. Karl Toriola, has said telecom operators in the country have made a request of approximately 100% increase to ensure the industry’s sustainability rather than boost short-term profitability.

Speaking during an interview on Arise TV, the telecoms executive detailed the financial pressures facing operators and their potential impact on service delivery, employment, and overall economic growth.

According to him, the telecom industry is now facing a sustainability threat that must be addressed through a tariff review.

 

He, however, noted that the telecom regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), may not approve the 100% increase requested.

“We’ve put forward a request of approximately 100% tariff increases to the regulators. I doubt they’re going to approve that quantum of increases because they’re very sensitive to the current economic situation in the country,” he said. 

Rising costs in a challenging economy 

While emphasising that telecommunications is a fundamental human right and a critical element for driving an economy, Toriola noted that without a sustainable industry, the economy and the well-being of Nigerians will suffer.

  • He highlighted how inflation, foreign exchange devaluation, and rising energy prices have drastically increased operational expenses for telecom operators.
  • According to him, diesel costs have risen from pre-COVID levels of N230 to over N1,000 per liter.
  • The official exchange rate has shifted from N424.50 to about N1,550 at the end of 2024, drastically increasing the cost of importing critical infrastructure like base stations, which now cost nearly four times more than they did two years ago.

“These cost increases are outpacing revenue growth. If large operators like MTN and Airtel are struggling, the impact on smaller players and the ecosystem is even more severe,” he explained.  

Impacts on employment and economic growth

Toriola added that the telecom sector’s financial strain threatens its ability to sustain jobs and contribute to economic growth.

According to him, MTN alone accounts for over 2 million direct and indirect jobs, and any contraction in the industry would ripple across the economy.

“This is not just about profitability; it’s about survival. If the industry constricts, employment and commercial activities around it will constrict as well,” the CEO warned. 

“If we have an outlook that’s not sustainable, imagine what’s happening to the small operators, because what forex devaluation does to us is: With foreign exchange liabilities, which we have on our balance sheet, and those could be foreign exchange loans or lease obligations, every time there’s a shift in the exchange rate, we have to make provisions for those liabilities,” he added. 

Government support  

The MTN CEO, however, acknowledged the Nigerian government’s efforts in supporting the industry, through some initiatives aimed at sustaining the industry.

Specifically, he cited the recent declaration of telecom infrastructure as Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) as a move that would ensure the protection of the industry’s investments.

  • He also noted the plans to roll out 90,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable under the leadership of Minister Dr. Bosun Tijani, which is aimed at accelerating digital penetration.
  • Toriola also commended the efforts of the regulators in addressing sector indebtedness and quality of service obligations.
  • While optimistic about the industry’s future, he called for more targeted measures to address sustainability challenges, including tariff adjustments and continued collaboration between regulators and operators.

What you should know 

The two telecom industry associations, the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and The Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), have been at the forefront of advocacy for tariff review in the industry for over two years, citing an increase in costs of operations.

In a joint statement by the two bodies, the operators said the telecom industry is the only industry that has not reviewed its prices despite the rising inflation in the country and other economic realities that warrant increment.

  • They blamed this on the regulatory restraints that have been preventing them from pricing appropriately.
  • The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) regulates prices in the telecom industry and telecom operators are not allowed to implement any price change without the regulator’s approval.
  • The regulator has said a cost-based study is being conducted to determine if it would approve price increments for the operators.

[Nairametrics]

Controversial music sensation, Habeeb Okikiola Badmus popularly known as Portable, on Thursday, failed to perform in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital where he was scheduled to thrill the audience at the concert organised by Fuji star, Alhaji Taye Akande Adebisi, famously known as Taye Currency.

Portable drew the ire of the Ibadan people after a comment in a viral video late last year in the heat of a conflict between him and his ex-lover, Queen Dami, where he dissed the Ibadan and Oyo people of not owning buildings with Plaster-of-Paris (PoP).

Okikiola took to his social media to show the apartment he rented for his estranged lover in a video with POP embellishment, saying such facilities were not obtainable in Oyo and Ibadan in Oyo State.

The comment drew condemnations among people with many expressing disgust with the singer’s disregard for the people of both places.

He was however invited by Taye Currency to perform in Ibadan for the Fuji sensation’s New Year Concert on Thursday January 2, 2025 but the Zazu crooner was visibly absent to take the stage when it was his turn.

Fearing the consequences of his earlier utterances, the singer had begged for forgiveness prior to the concert from the Ibadan people after his invitation by Taye Currency.

 

LEADERSHIP understands that the singer was advised against mounting the stage over security concerns even when he was already in the city.

The advice, our correspondent learnt, was anchored on the unlikely backlash that may accompany his PoP comment, which many feared could spark unintended reactions from the Ibadan fans.

His failure to perform was against the assurances by the Oyo State Police Command to guarantee adequate security at the just concluded concert.

[Leadership]

Five months after the federal government announced a 150-day window for free importation of food items, the policy is yet to be implemented, Daily Trust learnt.

The government had on July 8, 2024, announced the duty-free import window for food commodities so as to ensure a reduction in food inflation in the country. 

 

The food commodities for which the duty waiver was meant include maize, husked brown rice, wheat and cowpeas.

Since that announcement, neither the government nor the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has provided details on the implementation mechanism.

In the third quarter of 2024, the Customs said the government might forgo N188.37 billion in revenue over the next six months due to the duty waiver granted on the importation of staple foods.

The Comptroller-General of the NCS, Adewale Adeniyi, at that time said the country spent N3.82 trillion on importation of wheat, beans, rice and maize between 2020 and 2023.

The Customs had also on August 14, 2024 said in order to participate in the import wavier, a company must be incorporated in Nigeria and have been operational for at least five years.

It said the Ministry of Finance would periodically provide the NCS with a list of importers and their approved quotas to facilitate the importation of these basic food items within the framework of this policy.

The implementation of the policy is suffering a delay amidst the rising inflation on imported food items in the country. 

The rise has been attributed to multiple factors, including the currency devaluation and the global supply chain disruptions. 

Daily Trust reports that the average price of imported high-quality rice has surged by 144.77 per cent year-on-year.

The recent report on the Consumer Price Index by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s imported food inflation surged to 42.29 per cent in November 2024, a significant rise from 23.74 per cent recorded in November 2023, representing a 55 percentage point year-on-year increase.

According to the NBS, on a month-on-month basis, imported food inflation rate increased from 40.96 per cent in October 2024, a 1.33 percentage point rise in just one month.

The data showed the continued rise in imported food inflation throughout 2024, which began at 26.29 per cent in January.

Subsequently, by October, the inflation rate had crossed the 40 per cent threshold, and November’s figure of 42.29 per cent is the highest recorded in the past two years.

Finance ministry responsible for importers’ identification – Customs

Reacting in a chat with our correspondent yesterday, the National Public Relations Officer of the NCS, Aliyu Maiwada, said it is the duty of the Ministry of Finance to identify importers.

“The federal government, through the Federal Ministry of Finance, is responsible for the policy formulation and identification of designated importers for the policy while the Nigeria Customs implements.

“Therefore it is a gradual process and it is in progress,” he stated.

The Director Press in the Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Manga, declined comment on the issue when Daily Trust contacted him yesterday.

Manga neither answered calls nor replied a text message sent to his mobile telephone line.

Efforts by Daily Trust to get a comment from the Ministry of Agriculture yesterday were unsuccessful as the minister’s spokesman, Kingsley Osadolor, did not respond to phone calls and a text message sent to him.

Hunger will worsen – Expert

A development expert at the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Joseph Momoh, in an interview with Daily Trust yesterday, said unless the zero import duty is implemented, hunger would get worse in the country.

“The waiver was expected to target low-income households. However, it is a new year and nothing has happened. By now, the window is expected to have closed, but unfortunately, we have not even started.  

“Food inflation continues to strain households, with many consumers reporting that the prices of essential items remain high.

“Currently, the price of a 50kg bag of rice, both local and foreign, is an average of N106, 000 and N120,000, respectively, higher than Nigeria’s minimum wage of N70,000. The government needs to do something,” he said.

[DailyTrust]

 

The governorship candidate of the Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 general election, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour has said that the economic reforms of the current administration are benefitting only a selected few people.

President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s reforms since taking over office in May 2023 include the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, the country’s currency, which the President recently vowed to sustain at all odds.

But Rhodes-Vivour sees no reason the majority of Nigerians are suffering while others feed fat.

“The people are experiencing unprecedented hardship. Today, over 70 per cent of people’s income is spent on transportation and food,” he said during an interview on Channels Television on Thursday.

“They’ve not even started to think about how they can afford accommodation.

“We have a situation where there is a culture of wastefulness, and extravagance that does not reflect the dire economic situation that the same President is pushing out that needs to be reformed.

“The only people that seem to be benefitting from these reforms are maybe the bankers, the people in government, and the President’s friends.

“How many Nigerians can say they are benefitting from any reform right now?” He queried.

DAILY POST reports that the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the Naira has pushed the inflation level to a new high.

[DailyPost]

Actress and politician Eniola Badmus broke down in tears during her annual charity event where she made an emotional appeal to supporters to pray for her to become a mother.

As she took the stage, Eniola’s voice cracked with emotion as she urged the audience to pray for her to be blessed with the fruit of the womb.

She expressed deep desire to have children and provide for them, asking for continued opportunities to serve and support her community.

 

“Please continue to pray for me. Always mention me, Eniola Badmus, in your prayers. I am waiting upon the Lord for kids. Please pray for me. And more opportunities so I can serve you better. With your prayers and God by my side, I will continue to work together with you people to achieve a brighter and more prosperous tomorrow for many of our people. Thank you today, thank you always, and thank you forever, “she said.

Eniola’s plea was met with compassion and understanding from the audience visibly moved.

[TheNation]

 

Nigerian telecommunications companies have proposed a 100 per cent increase in their tariffs, pending approval from the government.

The proposal, which has been submitted to the Nigerian Communications Commission, aims to address rising operational costs, including inflation and increased service delivery expenses.

The disclosure was made by the Chief Executive Officer, MTN Nigeria, Karl Toriola, during an interview on Arise TV on Thursday.

However, the CEO expressed that it remains uncertain whether the Nigerian Communications Commission—the telecom regulator, will approve the proposal.

 

According to Toriola, the proposed tariff hike is necessary for the sustainability of the industry, which has been facing significant financial pressures due to rising operational costs.

“We’ve put forward requests of approximately 100 per cent tariff increases to regulators. I doubt they’re going to approve that quantum of increases because they are very, very sensitive to the current economic situation in the country,” Toriola said.

Despite the challenges, Toriola expressed optimism that regulators would make the right decision, taking into account the realities of the sector.

The CEO emphasised that the focus is on ensuring the long-term sustainability of the industry, rather than short-term profitability.

“I believe we’re all on the same side, the policymakers, the regulators, our Chairman of ALTON, Gbenga Adebayo, and the industry. We’re united because we share concerns about a few fundamental issues. First, human rights, are critical to driving any economy. Without a sustainable industry, the broader economy and the well-being of the people will be negatively impacted.”

The proposal comes amid rising costs for telecom companies, driven by factors such as inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and the increasing price of key operational inputs like diesel, power generation, and raw materials.

 

Toriola highlighted the pressure these rising costs have put on telecom businesses, making it difficult for many companies to maintain profitable operations.

Earlier this week, operators issued a statement warning that service disruptions are imminent unless tariffs are adjusted to account for escalating operational costs.

The Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria, Engr. Gbenga Adebayo described the telecom sector as “under siege,” citing soaring operational costs driven by inflation, volatile exchange rates, and rising energy prices.

He noted that despite these challenges, tariffs have remained unchanged, leaving operators struggling to maintain quality service and expand their networks.

The telcom chief warned that without an immediate tariff adjustment, operators may resort to service shedding, leading to limited availability of telecom services in certain areas.

The first call for a tariff adjustment was made in April 2024, but no significant progress has been achieved.

In response to the growing financial strain, ALTON and the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria issued a joint statement urging the Federal Government to facilitate a constructive dialogue with industry stakeholders.

The associations emphasised the need for a framework that balances consumer affordability with operators’ financial sustainability, following 11 years of tariff stability.

With a shared commitment to preserving the sector’s future, operators are calling on all stakeholders to act before it’s too late, warning that failure to do so will risk the survival of one of Nigeria’s most critical industries.

[Punch]

Arne Slot says crisis-hit Manchester United are “much, much better” than their shocking position in the Premier League suggests as he prepares his Liverpool team for a clash against their fierce rivals on Sunday.

Liverpool are six points clear at the top of the Premier League table — and are hot favourites to land a 20th English top-flight crown, which would pull them level with record-holders United.

United, by contrast, are 14th in the table after five defeats in their past six league games under new manager Ruben Amorim.

But Slot, also in his first campaign in England, is adamant he will not take his opponents lightly at Anfield, when asked if he might rest players at Friday’s pre-match press conference.

 

“No, of course I’m not going to plan to rest any player because it’s a big game and I think it’s for me I said it before the first fixture (a 3-0 win at Old Trafford) and I can say it one more time, that they have much better players in my opinion than maybe the league table shows at the moment.

“I think it’s going to take a while maybe for Ruben Amorim to bring this out of the players… but they will definitely go up and they are much, much, much better than the league table shows at the moment.”

The Dutchman said he had sympathy with his rival in the Old Trafford hot seat, who joined United from Portuguese champions Sporting Lisbon in November.

 

“I think every manager sympathises with every other manager, because we all know how much pressure this job brings,” said Slot.

“That’s not different for him than for me, or for any other manager that works in the Premier League, or somewhere else around the world.”

Slot was asked whether he could categorically state that Liverpool would not let Trent Alexander-Arnold leave in the January transfer window, with the defender heavily linked with a move to Real Madrid.

Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah and captain Virgil van Dijk are all out of contract at the end of the season and can now talk to foreign clubs.

Slot said Alexander-Arnold was “fully committed” to Liverpool and would be playing on Sunday.

“Hopefully he brings the same performances as he brought in for the last half-year, because I think everybody saw how great a first half of the season he had, how much he is here, how much he wants to win here,” said Slot.

AFP

Niger Republic Head of State, Brigadier-General Abdourahmane Tchiani, on Christmas night, December 25, 2024, accused Nigeria of conspiring with France to destabilise his country. France, he claimed, is working with terrorist groups to undermine Niger’s security, adding that: “Nigerian authorities are not unaware of this underhanded move.” He also claimed that the Nigerian government had been paid huge sums by France to establish a military base in Northern Nigeria.

Tchiani’s claims might have been partly based on assertions eleven days earlier by Nigerian health practitioner, Shehu Mahdi, alleging the presence of French troops in Nigeria. He had backed this with a video purportedly featuring Nigerian and French military officers.

Mahdi, apparently based on the video, had written: “Just listen to the clip below to enable you understand that Tinubu and Co are taking Nigerians for a ride, for granted, betraying all our laws, insulting our collective intelligences and on a journey to mortgage and destroy Nigeria. It is left for conscious Nigerians to open their eyes wide, act wisely, with precision, and be willing to sacrifice anything for the survival of Nigeria that few wicked people are bent on destroying. Niger is kicking them out, Nigeria is bringing them in! It seems like we will stay colonized forever! With this terrorism will never end. But why are African leaders so stupid? What in the world are we doing to ourselves? What good is France other than to steal and to destroy?” 

When I read this, I felt some sympathy for Mahdi because he is a person who seems incapable of differentiating reality from falsehood. His pranks and claims can be so childish and bizarre, that they border on some medical condition. For instance, in 2021 Mahdi accused then Katsina State Governor, Bello Masari and some of his officials, of a N52 billion corruption scandal.

He was arrested but claimed he was sick and could not stand trial. When the judge insisted he must appear in court, he was carried like an invalid with neck and back braces and crutches. In the court room he was weeping. After the hearing, he was returned to his cell where, unknown to him, the security team had installed hidden cameras. Immediately Madhi got in, he packed the crutches to a corner, readjusted the mosquito net over his bed, and resumed normal activities.

Mahdi, who identifies with a group that claims Islamic terrorists and bandits in Nigeria are liberation fighters, was a foot soldier of the infernal Abacha regime which from 1993 to 1998 imposed a reign of terror on the country. In one of the most heinous crimes of that regime, the conscientious journalist, Bagauda Kaltho, was abducted and has not been seen since then. In 2022 Mahdi tried to exculpate the Abacha regime from Bagauda’s murder by spinning a yarn that the journalist was a terrorist who killed himself while planting a bomb at the Durbar Hotel, Kaduna. But Mahdi was apparently not well briefed. For instance, he claimed he was in the vicinity of the blast on December 21, 1995 while, in truth, that blast was on January 18, 1996. Mahdi claimed that within two hours of the blast, he personally briefed the then Military Administrator of Kaduna State, Lawal Jafaru Isa, about the blast and the identity of the bomber, and that the next day he gave a similar briefing to then Head of State, General Sani Abacha. When contacted, Isa said he could not recall such briefings. On the other hand, Madhi’s other witness, Abacha is dead.

Thirdly, while Mahdi claimed that the Abacha regime was within two hours aware that the Durba bomber was Bagauda, the facts on ground show that until the end of that inglorious regime 27 months later, it was desperately trying to unravel the victim.

Mahdi is also involved in all sorts of controversies. For instance, when he was arrested in February, 2024, he claimed that it was because he had called on President Bola Tinubu to probe former President Muhammadu Buhari and some top officials of his government. But erstwhile Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, clarified that Mahdi had been arrested for trying to take advantage of his wife, Aisha, for a sum of $500,000.

It has now turned out that what Mahdi has been spreading on the internet as the video of French military presence in Nigeria in 2024, was actually a video shot in 2013, that is, eleven years earlier.

So, if the Nigerien government had put any store on Madhi’s video, it showed the low quality of its intelligence system.

Nigerian government officials have been quite prompt and direct on Tchiani accusations. Information Minister, Mohammed Idris Malagi, clarified that: “These claims exist solely in the realm of imagination, as Nigeria has never engaged in any overt or covert alliance with France – or any other country – to sponsor terrorist attacks or destabilise the Niger Republic in the wake of the undemocratic change in the leadership of that country.”

National Security Adviser, NSA, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, in dismissing claims of a foreign military base in Nigeria, said: “Even England, which colonised Nigeria, never stationed soldiers here. When France wanted to bring its troops, we refused. Why should we agree now?”

Foreign Affairs Minister, Yusuf Tuggar, also explained that: “As brothers and neighbours, Nigeria and Niger share deep historical and cultural ties, underscored by trade and economic interdependence. These enduring connections are reminders of our intrinsically linked destinies. Therefore, unfounded allegations cause needless tensions that could cause disaffection and threaten the collective progress of our region”.

While these are good reactions, we must know that our brothers and sisters in Niger Republic may not believe us. Besides, Niger has also accused Nigeria of economic sabotage. Also, the military of both countries have joint anti-terrorist patrols and operations.

So, before matters get out of hand, the Tinubu government needs to move quickly to douse tensions. Nigeria is like a person carrying burning coals in its hands; it has no time for debates or brickbats. It should immediately send emissaries to Niamey. It can follow up with a meeting between President Tinubu and General Tchiani.

Nigeriens and Nigerians on both sides of the colonial border are same people with same language and culture. We face the same issues of mass unemployment, high inflation, serious insecurity and high costs of fuel. Therefore, it is in our collective interests to work together, avoid unnecessary conflicts and concentrate on our old project of borderless, integrated communities, not just in our region, but continent-wide.

Nigeria as the bigger brother who also has no fears of foreign invasion, should take the first step. So, when is Nuhu Ribadu going to Niamey?