As Nigeria battles an economic crisis sparked by the government’s twin policies of petrol subsidy removal and unification of FX windows, United Kingdom-based Diageo joined about 15 other multinational companies that have exited the country in the past three years.

Diageo is the latest to announce its departure on Tuesday, June 11 when it said it will sell its 58.02% stake in Guinness Nigeria to Tolaram.

Diageo joins others like Kimberly-Clark, manufacturers of Huggies and Kotex brands of diapers; US-based Procter and Gamble (P&G); GlaxoSmithKline (GSK); Unilever and Sanofi-Aventi Nigeria, who are either exiting completely or reducing their exposure in a country facing its worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.

Unilever Nigeria announced its exit from the home care and skin cleansing markets in Nigeria in November 2023, saying it did so “to find a more sustainable and profitable business model.”
Procter & Gamble was the last to announce its exit from the country the same year.
Similar reasons given by these and other companies include high energy costs, currency depreciation, insecurity etc.

The Federal Government itself acknowledged these challenges in an interview granted by Minister of Finance, Wale Edun on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics programme, where he said “lack of a liquid foreign exchange market was the major reason why some multinational companies exited Nigeria,” explaining that the inability of the exiting multinationals to access foreign exchange was a major impediment to their operations in the country.

Weighing-in, the Director-General of Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, NECA, Adewale Oyerinde, disclosed that at least 15 multinationals have either divested or partially closed operations in the country in the last three years.

Oyerinde, in his assessment, stated: “Over 15 organisations, with a combined value-chain staff strength of over 20,000 employees, have either divested or partially closed operations,” lamenting that this has “dire consequences not only for organised businesses but also for labour, government revenue and the households; massive job losses across sectors, which would continue to create insecurity challenges”.

Oyerinde added, “When NECA examined the exit of prominent companies like GSK, Sanofi, Procter & Gamble, Nampak, and others, who had been doing business in Nigeria for decades and were huge employers of labour, it was worried about the ripple effect on the broader business ecosystem.

“Within the value chain, numerous enterprises serve as suppliers to these major corporations, and their sustainability is significantly compromised when the primary businesses they cater to face extinction.

“The survival prospects of these secondary businesses are at stake, and their employees are also at risk, as the departure of the main clients could lead to their demise. The crisis within the value chain deserves more attention than it currently receives”.

Other sectoral group leaders and analysts maintain that the continuous exit of multinational firms would dampen Nigeria’s $1trn GDP target of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

The President had, at the 29th Nigeria Economic Summit in Abuja, told business leaders and Nigerians that Nigeria’s economy can grow to $1 trillion by 2026.

Analysts believe the persistent exit of multinational companies from the country is set to impact negatively on this target.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the performance of the GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.32 per cent and contributed 58.04 per cent to the aggregate GDP, whereas the nominal GDP growth of the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2024 was recorded at 8.21 per cent (year-on-year), 9.64 per cent points lower than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2024, on its part, was 1.49 per cent (year-on-year), lower than the same quarter of 2023.

Reacting to this, President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Otunba Francis Meshioye said, “MAN expects the government to frontally address insecurity, improve electricity supply, promote fiscal sustainability and ensure policy consistency.

“Among other priorities, the fiscal authority must also lend supportive measures by adequately incentivising the manufacturing sector and other productive sectors.

“This is very important to boost non-oil export earnings in addition to the increase in oil export proceeds occasioned by increased oil production, rising global oil prices and the coming on stream of the Dangote Refinery”.

Director-General of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr. Chinyere Almona, also speaking on the issue, said: “Over the last few months, there has been a consistent increase in exit plans or a reduction in involvement in the Nigerian market by the multinationals, and this trend is worrisome.

“We have seen the likes of Unilever Nigeria, GlaxoSmithKline, and recently now Guinness Nigeria Plc.

“In Nigeria, lingering foreign exchange scarcity, poor power supply, port congestion, multiple taxation, insecurity, and poor infrastructure, among others, have taken a toll on many businesses in the country.”

The chamber recommended that the government should implement measures to stabilise and ensure the availability of foreign exchange for businesses, particularly those operating in dollar-denominated environments, also imploring the government to create a more flexible and transparent foreign exchange policy to address scarcity issues.

“Further, the Chamber urges the government to engage multinational corporations and the business community to understand their challenges and gather input and feedback on policy decisions to collaboratively develop solutions that will forestall the exodus of businesses from Nigeria. The CBN should prioritise the stability of the country’s currency and adopt the right policy mix to ensure price stability,” Almona said.

National President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, ASBON, Femi Egbesola, maintained that multinationals are among the companies that contribute largely to the country’s GDP and earnings.

“We cannot be talking of growing our economy when the real investors are leaving. Assuming they are leaving and the indigenous ones are increasing, it would have been a different thing. But that is not the case. You make income as a nation when you have investments and investors,” he said.

However, since the coming of the Tinubu administration, Tinubu and Edun, among others, have been speaking on efforts being put in place towards revamping the economy, encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and also making local industries vibrant and competitive.

Whether the assurances of Edun, who, on the Channels Television’s Sunday Politics programme, said, “recent executive orders signed by President Bola Tinubu have improved the investment climate … and also disclosed that tax reform proposals aimed at simplifying doing business for local and foreign manufacturers are being considered as part of an Economic Stabilisation Package,” would stem the flow of multinationals exiting the country, only time will tell.

[Vanguard]

States across Nigeria experienced another round of blackout on Saturday as the national electricity power grid crashed to 70.60 megawatts around 4 pm.

It marked the seventh time the national grid would collapse in 2024. The previous collapses were on February 4, April 10, April 15, March 11, March 12, and March 28.

During the inauguration of the 31-member Presidential Economic Coordination Council held at the Council Chamber of the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Thursday, President Bola Tinubu described the current low electricity generation in the country as shameful.

Tinubu said, “We have the challenge of energy security in Nigeria. We need to work together to improve our oil and gas sector, and we must also increase electricity generation, as well as distribution throughout the country. We are determined to do that with your cooperation, collaboration, and recommendations. As a nation, it is so shameful that we are still generating 4.5GW of electricity.”

Data on the ‘Nigeria Grid: Generation Profile’ supplied by the Transmission Company of Nigeria, indicated that the country’s power generation crashed to 70.60MW on Saturday.

Electricity generation initially increased from 3,788.63MW to 3,976.24MW around 10am yesterday, but dropped to 1,075.08MW at 3 pm, before crashing to 70.60MW around 4 pm. It was observed that only the Trans-Amadi Gas Turbine Power Plant in Rivers State supplied power to the grid around 4 pm on Saturday, producing just 0.80MW at the time. Power generation on the grid moved up slightly to 72.30MW around 5 pm, as engineers from TCN struggled to restore the grid, according to sources from the transmission company.

DisCos lament

Confirming the collapse of the grid, the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company, in a statement, said all its interfaces in the TCN stations were out of supply, adding that it was unable to provide services to customers in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo states.

“The Enugu Electricity Distribution Company wishes to inform its esteemed customers of a general system collapse which occurred at 15:09 hours today, July 6, 2024. This has resulted in the loss of supply currently being experienced across the network. Due to this development, all our interface TCN stations are out of supply, and we are unable to provide services to our customers in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo states. We are on standby awaiting detailed information on the collapse and restoration of supply from the National Control Centre, Osogbo,” a statement signed by the EEDC’s Head of Corporate Communications, Emeka Ezeh, read.

The Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company also tweeted on X, “We regret to inform you that the power outage being experienced in our franchise states is due to the system collapse of the national grid.”

Similarly, the Kano DisCo said, “We regret to inform you that the power outage being experienced in our franchise states is due to the system collapse of the national grid. The collapse occurred at about 3:10pm, hence the loss of supply in all our outgoing feeders. The power supply shall be restored as soon as the national grid is powered back. Our sincere apologies for any inconvenience.”

In a statement released by its management on Saturday, titled, Notice of System Collapse, Ikeja DisCo equally appealed to its customers to bear with the company for its inability to supply power, noting that it was due to the national grid collapse. It said, “The current service disruption is due to a system collapse of the national grid at about 15:08 hours today. We are in collaboration with relevant stakeholders within the power value chain to ensure speedy restoration of supply.”

Meanwhile, data on the TCN Discos load profile site showed that all the eight Discos had 0.00MW load allocation as of 6pm on Saturday.

‘Incessant grid collapse embarrassing’

Commenting on the development, Adetayo Adegbemle, who is the convener and Executive Director of PowerUp Nigeria, an electricity consumer rights and power sector policy advocacy organisation, stated that everyone involved in the electricity value chain should be embarrassed by their inability to prevent grid collapses.

Adegbemle added that some people should be sacked to fix the situation. He said, “I think everyone involved in the value chain should be embarrassed by the regular occurrence and inability to put measures in place to avoid this constant grid collapse. It is unfortunate because everyone blames others.

“I believe that if heads had been rolling for people not taking responsibility, someone would have stood up to fix this problem.”

Suggesting a way forward, Adegbemle said, “There is a need to align the value chain, and that was something the Siemens deal promised to achieve. If the head of TCN, for instance, were to lose his job tonight, the next MD would be more willing to work with other subsectors to ensure this does not happen again.

“Whatever is needed to forestall these grid collapses is definitely in the hands of the leadership of the TCN, especially.”

Also reacting, the Executive Director of the Electricity Consumer Protection Advocacy Centre, Princewill Okorie, regretted that the grid kept collapsing, despite the increase in electricity tariffs.

Okorie expressed concern that unmetered customers would still be made to pay for the period of the collapse, questioning what the government had been doing to prevent such incidents.

Asking some pertinent questions, Okorie said, “What are the causes of these grid collapses? Are the materials used in building the grid of good quality? Who is managing the grid? The players in the sector are more interested in collecting money from consumers, rather than making the system stable. What you hear more about the power sector is payment. The money that international communities are bringing into the industry and the money that is unlawfully collected from consumers—where is it being utilised? How do the DisCos spend their operational expenditures?

“In the past few months, they keep increasing tariffs, yet the power sector is inefficient. They are interested in collecting money, but whether the money is judiciously utilised or not, nobody cares. They keep overbilling customers. The desperation to collect revenue for services not delivered is a challenge. Now that the grid has collapsed, the unmetered customers will still be made to pay for darkness. That is injustice. The government should address this issue of grid collapse once and for all.”

NECA urges upgrade of power grid

On his part, the Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, urged the government to address the persistent collapse of the national power grid.

He stated that the incessant collapses severely disrupt power supply, leading to erratic electricity provision across the country, stressing that the power grid should be upgraded. He called for swift action to prevent further disruptions and ensure a reliable power supply for all Nigerians.

Oyerinde said, “They should ensure to fix the cause of the national grid collapse. Once there is a collapse of the national grid, there won’t be power supply, or it becomes epileptic.

“We urge the government to fix the power grid, especially now that there is no subsidy on electricity. They need to upgrade the grid to stop the incessant collapse.”

[Punch]

• FG releases details, insists pact won’t hurt Nigeria
• Disregard fake news about agreement, govt tells clerics
• Ex-British Diplomat: Reports linking deal to LGBT rights irresponsible

The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, yesterday said there was no clause on $150 billion for Nigeria in Samoa Agreement.

He said what Nigeria signed was the “Partnership Agreement between the European Union and its Members States and members of the Organization of the Caribbean and Pacific States”.

He denied that the agreement had anything to do with the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Queer (LGBTQ) rights.

He said Nigeria’s signing of the agreement was accompanied by a declaration clarifying its understanding of it.

He said the agreement Nigeria entered into contained 103 foundational articles and 79 African region specific protocols.

He said “none of the protocols offends our laws.”

He said the agreement has no clause on LGBTQ+ rights or any agreement indicating that Nigeria support LGBTQ rights.  He said: “Anything we sign must be in tandem with our constitution and laws. Anything beyond that is null and void.

“Tinubu respects Nigeria’s sensitivity and diversity and will never approve anything that will be seen as damaging our sensitivity.”

Bagudu spoke at an emergency press briefing on Abuja in the company of the Minister of information and Orientation, Mohammed Idris, and the Special Assistant to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga.

FG threatens to drag Daily Trust to Ombudsman, court

Taking the first shot, the Minister of information and Orientation described as fake news and disinformation the report that the government has signed the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Queer (LGBTQ) agreement in exchange for $150 billion, saying the government would consider legal actions against the media House.

He said the agreement has no provision for LGBT in whatever form, adding that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will never sign any agreement that is against the country’s constitution, law, culture and religion.

He said the government would drag Daily Trust newspaper to an Ombudsman and the court to prove that it misled Nigerians on the agreement.

Idris advised some clerics already inciting Muslims in the country against being misdirected by fake news.

He said contrary to what was reported, there is nothing in the agreement that is of concern.

Idris said that following the report in the national daily, Ulamas started to use it in their Friday sermons to castigate the government.

The minister cautioned against media publication that continued to advance the erroneous narrative that the Samoa Agreement recently signed by the Federal Government was to promote the LGBT agenda in the country.

He said the affected media outfit would be dragged before the, Ombudsman of the Newspaper Proprietors of Nigeria (NPAN).

He, however, assured that the Tinubu administration will not trample on press freedom.

He said: “We are alarmed by the level of reckless reporting and statements by some media organisations and individuals that border on national security and stability.

“While we sometimes view and treat those occasional reporting as part of media’s normal work, we have now seen a pattern that is difficult to be wished away as normal journalism.

“The insidious and inciting publications by Daily Trust these past months have come across as nothing but a deliberate effort to brush the government with a tar.

“On many occasions we have restrained ourselves from believing that this was the case, but the consistency of the jejune and mischievous publications leaves us with no option.

“In the aftermath of the coup in Niger Republic, Daily Trust championed a jaundiced narrative that the Federal Government was driving the country into a war and twisted it with regional sentiment to cause disaffection.

“The same newspaper gave a banner headline to a baseless accusation that the government was working on citing foreign military bases in the country. Neither Daily Trust nor originators of that imaginative allegation provided any shred of evidence.

“Then just two weeks ago, Daily Trust concocted and popularised a lie that the Federal Government had renamed the Murtala Mohammed Expressway in Abuja to Wole Soyinka Way.

“In all those instances all that the paper depended on were falsehood and hearsays. They also showed no remorse or the humility to recant.

“We however did not envisage that Daily Trust and people behind it could descend to the reckless level of attempting to set the country on fire by falsely accusing the government of signing a deal to promote LGBTQ.

“We found that despicable and wicked because the allegation is nowhere in the document signed. Surprisingly, the paper put forward no evidence nor provided the agreement allegedly signed to prove their point.

“The baseless and sensational story unfortunately formed a basis for Khutba (sermons) by some of our respected imams who were misled by the story, thereby raising tempers.

“On the part of the government, we continue on the honourable path of civility by restraining ourselves from taking self-help or draconian measures.

“While past governments clamped down on the media for infractions much lower than this, we are however toeing the path of civility and the rule of law.

“But beyond this, the Federal Government is lodging a formal complaint to the NPAN Ombudsman on this irresponsible reporting.

“In addition, the Federal Government will use every lawful means to seek redress in the court of law.

“The Federal Government once again restates its friendly policy towards ethical media and free speech. We would however not take fake news and disinformation that would injure the peace of our country and its national security lightly.”

Idris insisted that the Federal Government has nothing to hide.

He said the Tinubu administration was committed to Probity and Transparency.

He added: “The Ministry of Information and National Orientation under my leadership will do everything possible to ensure transparency, honesty in the dissemination of credible information.

“We made this solemn pledge at the beginning when we were new to office and we will continue to do that.

 “We call on you, members of the media, to please help us to spread only what is correct and what you know you can verify.

“It is normal and indeed within the right of the media to scrutinise the affairs of government.

“Nobody can take that away but it is important that care is taken so that when information is being passed, we only present what we know to only the true, credible, honest and in the best interest of our nation.

“Whenever information is being spread that will harm our unity, that will harm our political existence as a nation, then of course there must be something to be asked there.

“We will continue to provide information to the media as needed.

“I would also implore the media to please report only what is factual.

 “The series of headlines we think that we have received from the newspaper has given us a cause for concern.

 “For me, as a member of this industry, I am really particularly pained that I have to come to address a particular medium in this regard.

“But it is important because we have made this pledge that we are only going to provide what is credible, what we know to be factual.

“The President and this administration will not in any way, in any way, I repeat, the President will not sign or cause any office official to sign anything that will harm our nation, not in any way.

“So to all those who come on in that there is a signature out there that gives away our country as an LGBT-compliant country or seeking to do that, it is mischaracterization, misrepresentation.

“The current government insists that our laws will be respected, our norms will be respected, our traditions will also be respected and our values will be respected.

“The two major religions here are against it.

There is a law existing against the issue of LGBT. The current government of Nigeria would not go against that.

“I think it is important that we put this out there for those who have reacted largely due to ignorance.

There is also a Surah, Surah Al-Hujurat in the Holy Quran.

“Before you put out any information out there, it is important that you cross-check and be sure of your facts.”

He also called on religious leaders to show understanding, while promising that the government will continue to engage with them.

“We will continue to engage them, we will continue to put out the truth there, we will continue to give them.

“That is why we came, not just with the document that Nigeria sent, but the entire document relating to the whole issue of Samoa, the so-called Samoa agreement, the cross-cultural agreement.

 “There is nothing we have examined, the Attorney General of the Federation has examined it, and there is nothing that is said there that is of concern.

“But of course, the government is there to continue to clarify, to continue to explain and to continue to appeal for the understanding of not just the media but for the Nigerian population, for us to continue to grow on the path of progress and unity of our country.

 “Please, we call on all of you, and I want to use this opportunity to thank those media organizations that have provided clarity by fact-checking some of these claims put forward by this particular newspaper.

 “It has been fast-checked, the statements and all the documents are actually out there, and the equality of this agreement has also been shared.”

Bagudu clarifies agreement

Bagudu clarified that the agreement signed by Nigeria was for cooperation and the economic development of the country.

 He said: “President Bola Tinubu did not authorise anything that is damaging or hurtful to our sensitivity and we have not signed any such agreement.”

 “Mr. President has undertaken, consistent with his campaign promise, a very demanding diplomacy in order to convince the world that we need all the support and the world is taking it seriously, because there is so much transparency, because there is so much clarity.

“I recall when we visited Saudi Arabia for the first time, the Minister of Investment of Saudi Arabia stated that they compare what President Nasser al-Baghdadi is doing to that of his brother, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, taking on courageous measures that they should have been taking decades ago.

“Development partners, as you very well know, are also media savvy. They see what is happening. So let us not ridicule our nation based on misrepresentation.

“Let us support the commendable endeavours and reward the hard work so that the development partners we are relating with, the investors we are looking for will be interested in our resolve.

“When industrialists or development partners see a lie coming too far, they will have the right to worry.”

Bagudu cautioned against reports beclouded with political expediency.

He said: “So we know that some will do it because it is politically expedient. We can do nothing about it, but we believe the majority of Nigerians are able to see paths for themselves and support so that Nigeria can continue to be respected, Nigeria can continue to be an investment destination.

“And also appreciate that hardworking men and women in service, in ministries are dealing with these issues and they will be demoralised if all they see is their effort being misrepresented by somebody with a big voice in society, using their power wrongly, a media house or a group of media entrepreneurs.

“So I appeal to all Nigerians to support the bold, courageous endeavoors we are taking, so that our development partners will also be strengthened and continue to relate with us and to know that we appreciate what they are doing for us.

Giving insights into the contents of the agreement, Bagudu said Nigeria did not sign an agreement only with the EU but with many other countries.

He added: “It’s a requirement by those countries so that they set out the parameters of the cooperation.

“When you get a copy of the document, you will see that this is a broad agreement.

“It is about education; it is about food security; it is about water and sanitation; it is about decent work; and it is about demography.

“It is about youth. It is about culture and sustainable development. It is about inclusive economic development. It is about private sector development. It is about human rights, democracy and rule of law. It is about good governance, public administration, personal data, peace and security.

“So those are the articles. Each article is about an area of cooperation. We signed an agreement with the EU to say that we believe we can cooperate in these areas, in the several areas, which are about 100 and almost 200 distinct areas.”

Bagudu, who was visibly upset by the narration in the public domain, said Nigeria was painstaking in signing the agreement.

He added: “Even when we signed this agreement, we had to also sign a specific implementation agreement.

“For example, we have a rule of law agreement. We have just signed one about four months ago. “The EU will say that for this period of time, between 2024 and 2027, for example, we are going to give you this amount of money.

“The rule of law is $30 million to support ICPC, to support the EFCC, to support the Ministry of Justice.

“We have the migration agreement also. We also have on the democratic institutions.

“So what I say is that within this agreement, there is nowhere where it is mentioned that Nigeria is going to receive $150 billion or any sum for that money.

“But these areas of cooperation are areas which will develop further and grow further.

“And they will lead to capital, will lead to support, will lead to technical support that we can enhance good production.

“One of the biggest supports we are receiving from the EU, for example, is called IDICE, which is our digital. About $300-600 million worth of projects are coming under that.

 “So I would say that there is nowhere in the world of development where you see 150 billion.

“But these are agreements which I believe, like with other countries, define what you want to relate with those countries in and how to go about it.”

Responding to a question, Bagudu said: “So you can imagine what about 79 other countries are like. That is why the agreement provides a proviso where a country, each country, not just Nigeria, can issue a declaration, clarifying some basis in which it is signing.

“Like I gave the example, one of the obvious ones; we didn’t provide it because of concerns about misrepresentation about LGBT, for example. We are clear. 

“But I gave the example of what we were worried about. We were worried that because of the way Europe is moving to clean energy, we don’t want to sign something that limits our capacity to develop our oil and gas sector clearly.

“One of the declarations you see made it clear that even though we signed any agreement on climate, we were categorical that it was not to limit us in any way because those are developmental rights and we kept within our constitution.”

Reports linking Samoa Agreement to LGBT rights irresponsible, says ex-British diplomat

A former British diplomat in Nigeria, Mr David Roberts, yesterday condemned reports linking the Samoa Agreement Nigeria signed penultimate Friday to the protection of LGBT rights as irresponsible, saying the document was a partnership pact on the growth and development of the Organisation of African, Caribbean and the Pacific States that signed it with EU Member countries.

There had been a backlash against the Federal Government after a national newspaper published a claim that some provisions of the agreement protect the rights of LGBT, contending that Nigeria signed on the back of a proposed $150bn loan.

Despite the rebuttal by the Federal Government through the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mr Mohammed Idris, social media remained agog with the condemnation of the agreement, forcing the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu to address a press conference yesterday to clarify the content of the document further.

“I found it incredible that anybody could believe that the Samoa Agreement, which is a protocol of economic and social development  between the EU and its member states and the Organisation of African, Caribbean, and Pacific States (OACPS) on the other hand is to further Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) rights,” Roberts said in a statement yesterday. 

He said nothing could be further from the truth, adding that except the reports were deliberate misinformation, he failed to see how anybody could have read the agreement and come to such a conclusion.

According to the former diplomat, “the agreement is a document that journalists can read. You do not need a Freedom of Information Act request to read it. It is a public document on the EU’s website.

“It is a harmless treaty that aims to reduce and eradicate poverty in the ACP nations and lead to the financial integration of African and Caribbean nations into the world economy.”

He said the best predictor of future events was the past, explaining that it was an agreement that over 50 countries had signed.

“How many of those countries have been forced to implement the LGBT agenda? Zero. None,” the former Director British Council in Nigeria said.

Saying that the reports were capable of inciting violence and civil unrest in a country as conservative as Nigeria, Robert said there ought to be punitive consequences for the publishers of the false reports if such irresponsible reportage was to be avoided in future.

[TheNation]

Atiku Abubakar, former Nigeria’s vice-president and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 elections, has slammed the Nigeria Police for their blatant breach of citizens’ rights and disregard for court orders.

Atiku’s outrage follows the arrest and transportation of Yusuf Sheriff Banki from Abuja to Maiduguri, Borno State, in defiance of a standing court order.

Justice M. A. Madugu of the Bwari Judicial Division had on the 13th of June, 2024, granted an order restraining the IGP, AIG Zone 15, CP FCT, their agents, privies, or anybody acting on their authority from arresting, intimidating, harassing and threatening Yusuf Sheriff Banki and his families pending the determination of the suit before the court.

But the Nigeria Police acted in breach of that order. Atiku is incensed by the Gestapo-style arrest, which flagrantly violated a valid and subsisting court injunction restraining the Inspector General of Police, the Assistant Inspector General of Police Zone 15, and the Commissioner of Police FCT from arresting Banki.

Condemning the action, Atiku berated the police for their impunity and lack of respect for the rule of law and citizens’ rights. He decried the incident as reminiscent of the oppressive military dictatorship era when citizens were detained without adherence to legal processes.

Emphasising that Nigeria is a nation of law and order, Atiku called on the police to unconditionally release Yusuf Sheriff Banki.

He also highlighted a worrying trend of journalists being arrested under the guise of the cybersecurity law for holding leaders accountable.

[Nigerian Tribune]

No fewer than 15 persons have reportedly lost their lives due to the widespread flooding experienced across the country within the last seven days.

Several properties, including houses, cars and other valuables were destroyed by the disturbing disaster.

DAILY POST recalls that on June 24, the popular Trademore Estate, Abuja, was submerged following a sustained torrential rainfall that led to the death of two residents.

Apart from many houses almost completely destroyed, the flood which overflowed the estate canal, also swept away several cars.

In Yobe State alone, about 30 communities were destroyed on July 1st when heavy downpour was experienced in the area, leading to the death of about nine persons.

The State Emergency Management Agency, SEMA, while confirming the ugly incident, revealed that over 10,845 individuals across 12 LGAs of Yunusari, Nguru, Nangere, Gujba, Damaturu, Fika, Bade, Bursari, Yusufari, Geidam, Machina and Karasuwa were affected by the floodings.

On Wednesday, movements were restricted while economic activities were crippled in Lagos State due to the persistent rainfall that caused unexpected flooding in many parts of the state.

It was more worrisome in some residential areas in Ibeju-Lekki and other strategic locations where thousands of residents were unfortunately displaced.

DAILY POST gathered that some of the worst affected areas included Epe, Eredo, Bogije, Labora, Abijon, Sangotedo, Awoyaya and Ibeju-Lekki.

A primary six pupil was reportedly swept away by the flood in the Ikosi-Ketu area of Lagos.

Also, seven occupants, including a one-year-old baby girl, were rescued alive from a collapsed two-storey building at the Mushin area of the state, following the heavy downpour.

Similarly, the Lagos State Police Command on Thursday confirmed that a yet-to-be-identified 61-year-old man lost his life after being electrocuted during the flood incident.

Nigerians knock federal and state governments over failure to be proactive

The recurring cases of flooding in the country have raised concerns among stakeholders who lamented that the Federal and the state governments failed to be proactive in tackling the menace.

DAILY POST recalls that in 2022, over 662 Nigerians lost their lives to flood across the country.

According to the National Emergency Management Agency, NEMA, 662 people were killed, while 2,430,445 others were displaced.

About 3,174 people also suffered various degrees of injuries during the flood disaster.

In 2023, the National Emergency Management Agency said over 45 Nigerians died, while 171,545 persons were displaced as a result of widespread flooding experienced across the country.

DAILY POST reports that despite the warnings and previous cases recorded, Nigeria was still caught unprepared in 2024.

Reacting to the Wednesday incident in Lagos State, a former governorship candidate in the state, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, said the Lagos State Government has not been proactive on flood management.

In a television interview monitored by DAILY POST, the Labour Party chieftain said, “What is more painful to me is that I see a government that is in your face and very active when it comes to demolition but you have this kind of thing (flood) you don’t see any emergency response or protocol.

“We are not seeing men on the ground. We are not seeing intelligence being given out early: ‘avoid these routes’. There were no diversions.

“I don’t feel a sense of ‘I told you so’. Anybody who loves Lagos well enough and has looked at the history of Lagos would see these things way before they happen”.

Similarly, Emmanuel Onwubiko, the Head, Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria, HURIWA, told DAILY POST on Saturday that it is not enough for the government to alert Nigerians of imminent danger of flooding, urging both the Federal and the state governments to take proactive actions.

He said, “Environmental issues like flooding are things that are even beyond the government. The only thing is that the government needs to be ready for remediation and rescue if it happens eventually.

“The government should be able to evacuate people from the flood-prone areas. Telling Nigerians that there is going to be flooding in 31 states is not enough.

“Sometimes the government needs to force these residents to move out of the danger areas. Some people may not want to leave willingly because it is their ancestral home.

“The Nigerian government should provide ecological funds that will resettle victims of flooding in the country.

“When these flood-prone areas are identified, the government is expected to inform the residents of the danger of staying back especially during the season of heavy rainfall.

“The state government should build camps where they can possibly relocate the affected people, not allowing people to be stranded when it happens”.

Poor urban planning, deforestation, others responsible for flooding in Nigeria – Expert

An environmentalist, Dr Gabriel Ajeh told DAILY POST on Saturday that poor urban planning and inadequate infrastructure development were the major causes of flooding in Nigeria.

According to him, “as most cities continue to expand, encroachment of settlements into flood-prone areas have also continued among citizens, leading to flood disaster.

“The urbanization in many parts of the country is very poor. There are places even in Abuja that people should not be allowed to reside.

“Unfortunately, you see these places being occupied by people despite knowing that floods usually occur in those places.

“For example, the issue of Trademore Estate in the FCT is not new. Every year we hear about people dying in the area due to flooding, yet people are allowed to continue living there.

“Another issue we must consider, especially as we battle climate change, is deforestation and environmental degradation.

“This has significantly reduced the natural flood protection that is usually provided by forests, wetlands, and mangroves, thereby heightening the risk of floods in Nigerian communities.

“We need to understand that the degradation of natural ecosystems contributes to soil erosion, which can worsen flooding by increasing sedimentation in rivers.”

FG places 18 states on red alert

Tension was heightened on Thursday when the federal government placed at least 18 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, on red alert over possible severe flooding expected from the end of July 2024.

The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Terlumun Utsev, who raised the alarm while addressing reporters in Abuja, said Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Rivers and Taraba, as well as the FCT may be adversely affected in the coming days.

According to the Minister, from the end of July, the country might start experiencing river flooding, which might be more devastating than the current situation.

The Water Resources minister said river flooding was expected from major rivers like the Niger and Benue, urging continuous monitoring and proactive measures.

[DailyPost]

Bandits have abducted two journalists and their family members in Kaduna State.

The armed men stormed Danhonu community in Millennium city of Chikun local government area of Kaduna and raided houses of the reporters of The Nation newspaper, Alhaji AbdulGafar Alabelewe, and that of Blueprint Newspaper, AbdulRaheem Aodu, their wives and children .

Alhaji Alabelewe is also the current chairman of the correspondents chapel of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ), Kaduna State Council.

A family member of one of the victims Taofeeq Olayemi, who confirmed the incident, said the bandits stormed the community at about 10:30pm on Saturday and started shooting sporadically before carrying out their action.

He said they kidnapped Alhaji Alabelewe, his wife and two of his children, while Alhaji Aodu and his wife were kidnapped, leaving behind their sick daughter.

“Initially, they picked Alhaji Abdulgafar, his wife and three of his children and a girl staying with them before asking the girl to return back with one of the children, leaving with Abdulgafar, his wife and two children.”

“They shattered their doors, windows and removed their burglary after scaling the fence.”

Olayemi, a family member of Mr. Aodu, who lives close to the victims’ houses said,” They came around 10:30pm on Saturday and started shooting sporadically. They first burst Aodu’s door open and picked him and his wife and left their sick daughter behind.

“Then, they entered Abdulgafar’s house through the fence and jumped into his house. They went straight into his bedroom and picked him, his wife and two of their kids. They left immediately, after which the vigilantes arrived and started shooting into the air.”

The Police Public Relations Officer (PPRO) in Kaduna, ASP Mansir Hassan could not be reached for reaction as his phone was not connecting as at the time of filing this report.

[DailyTrust]

A masquerade (Egungun) must hearken to the warnings of his guide if he is to make it back to base safely. He could take liberties in the alleyways and rural roads, but when the procession is heading towards the expressway where vehicles zip along at breakneck speed, the masquerade must be attentive to the instructions of his guide, lest an auto accident reduce him to just another orthopaedic casualty, a humiliating climbdown from the olympian heights of ancestor-hood.

Thus, when Fuji musician Abass Obesere, in his unique sassy style, sang, “Egungun be careful, na express you dey go”, the song quickly caught on, serving as a warning, not just to masquerades who are revered as representatives of the ancestors, but also to the general society. When the choreographed pandemonium of the procession appears to have developed a racy kind of velocity even without self exertion, perhaps the cavalcade is heading downhill!

Mirage

Living in Nigeria and having to experience the same foibles that catapult us backwards to the starting blocks while our co-runners are breasting the tape, is an extreme sport of sorts. One republic comes, one republic goes, what was once considered a prospect becomes a mirage with successive generations of leaders outdeviling their predecessors.

Flagellated by the harmattan of lean times, we are suffocated by the choking déja vu’s of knowing that we have passed through this valley of the shadow of want before — and shall do so till Kingdom come. Unlike the great American civil rights activist, Fannie Lou Hamer, it appears we can never be sick and tired of being sick and tired.

Egungun be careful! The social media is awash with contending covens of hate casting spells on gullible youth to join forces for the Ultimate Uprising, the one that will end all uprisings. The last time I checked, there were still many people languishing in the gulag on account of the last EndSARS protest. But for continued efforts by conscientious activists like Shehu Sani, Femi Falana and several civil society groups, those in jail would have been completely forgotten by now.

Last July, in the heat of claims and counter-claims by many interested parties, Amnesty International challenged the Lagos State government to disclose the identities of 103 #ENDSARS victims allegedly billed for mass burial after three years in the morgue. The protest which had started as a rage against police brutality eventually became politicised and weaponised by those fighting for the political soul of the nation.

While that unfinished business was inherited by the Tinubu administration and efforts are ongoing to secure the release of those still in jail, those who thrive in conditions of guaranteed confusion have been cloning posters and protest materials pinched from Kenya, urging Nigerian youths to emulate their Kenyan counterparts.

Strange

I find that campaign strange because, while any group can influence another irrespective of size, Nigerian youths have always demonstrated the capacity to do their own thing their own way at their own chosen time. They did not need any external stimulus to reject the Anglo-Nigerian Defence Pact that was negotiated between the Nigerian government and the United Kingdom in 1958, signed in 1960 and abrogated in 1962 due to public protests led by Nigerian students.

Egungun be careful. The wanton looting, arson, maiming and savagery that attended the Kenyan protests were not part of the agenda of the organisers. The day after, when Nairobi’s central business district was no longer recognisable, it became clear that some other dark forces had also come to the party.

The irony is that no society can make progress without a culture of protests, disputations and vigorous intellectual intercourse. Last month, we celebrated the remarkable events of June 12, 1993, because it was the day a new Nigeria was born and then strangled at birth. Such savagery! We had not only protested; we had made the country ungovernable! Every season has its own costume. We should not confuse harmattan with winter.

In terms of how we can make our country better, I am completely open to any kind of developmental ideas that we can use to help our people conquer current challenges and live a better life. In Nigeria, as in many other places, political parties are mere alphabets. Watch what they do; not what they say. Any idiot can write a manifesto. What matters is how the power of representative democracy is deployed. Our people have the capacity to recognise good governance when they see it.

Egungun be careful! The headlong rush of Nigeria’s First Republic towards perdition was not unpredictable. It was just that the main actors were too steeped in their happy-go-lucky ways and couldn’t spare the time to notice what the streets were saying.

Titanic

Doyin Okupe may not exactly fit your description of a principled politician. The more uncharitable of his critics say he’s a political harlot committed only to the ideology of the oesophagus. However— fair is fair, in contrast with some of his peers, Okupe is a qualified medical doctor and could have a day job if he so chooses. I have learnt not to look at the messenger in the Nigerian public space. It is the message that counts.

The other day, Okupe was at his most lucid when he compared the Nigerian situation with the last revelry on the Titanic before the ‘unsinkable’ ship sank. The Titanic was a big ship with many floors. The top deck was the very definition of luxury. The lower decks were packed with lower class people that weren’t even counted when planning for lifeboats.

When the Titanic started sinking, water started filling up from under the ship, the lower decks where the lower class passengers were. While those in the lower floors were struggling and dying, those in the first class cabins on the higher floors had no idea that their end was near. They were making merry in the grand ballroom with champagne and fine dining, still living the lie that their ship was unsinkable. They looked around them at all the luxurious fittings and despite all the signs that they were in trouble, they just didn’t get it. The band continued to play until the very end.

Okupe’s punchline was that Nigeria was in trouble; those at the bottom know it, while those at the top think it’s business as usual.

In these circumstances, you would expect that the government would deliberately cultivate a broad base of friends and collaborators to help bridge the perception gap between what the government claims to be doing and what the people think it is doing. Unfortunately, what we have here is that the man appointed by the president to administer the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, does not have the temperament to be a team player. If he continues like this, he will surely win more enemies for President Tinubu.

Pola-Pola

Telling Senator Ireti Kingibe who disagreed with his cement and mortar mentality to “go and hug a transformer” is the kind of lingo that area boys in Mushin or Onitsha main market would use. It is an infra dig for a minister of the federal republic. And to think that Senate President Akpabio then went ahead at the occasion of the flag-off of the construction of a bus terminal (see how low we have sunk) to orally throw the concerned senator under the bus!  Gladly, I hear that the same Akpabio is now cobbling together some kind of truce mechanism.

Egungun be careful! When the bata drum becomes too stridently loud, polá-polá, it may be about to burst. Hear Ola Rotimi: ”When the tortoise is going on a senseless journey and you say to the tortoise, ‘brother tortoise, brother tortoise, when will you be wise and come back home; eehn! The tortoise will say: Not until I’ve been disgraced.”

While insisting on running for reelection, President Biden of the United States of America on Friday denied that top Democrats in Congress want him to step aside — and rejected “hypotheticals” about what he would do if close allies urged him to withdraw.

The presidential election is on November 5, 2024, and pressure is mounting on the US president to drop out of the race and allow the Democratic party to pick another standard bearer during its convention in six weeks.

Biden starting bleeding support from party members, elected officials and a portion of the media after his poor performance at a presidential debate with his main rival, former president, Donald Trump of the Republican Party.

So far, though, only a handful of have lawmakers publicly called for Biden to quit the race. But momentum is growing, and Biden’s post-debate interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos is unlikely to stem the tide.

Some Democrats fear Biden’s weakness at the top of the ticket could cost the party control of the House and Senate.

Biden said that he speaks with Democratic leaders in Congress “regularly,” including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

According to CNN reports, the ongoing fallout from Joe Biden’s debate performance has already moved talk in many top Democratic circles to who Kamala Harris’ running mate would be.

That’s how specific a widening group of leading party officials, operatives and donors are that the president’s slow start to salvage his campaign won’t work, with several close allies skeptical that he is up to the reelection campaign he has pledged to stay in, based on CNN’s conversations with two dozen Democratic politicians and operatives.

Biden always says not to compare him to the almighty, but to the alternative. That’s exactly what a growing number of Democrats looking at Harris are doing.

For her part, the vice president and her staff have deliberately ignored most of the calls and texts coming their way, remaining insistently on message about both her support for Biden and her pride in sticking with him.

But Harris has already made some changes: Only after last week’s debate did her office update her schedule to put her with Biden for the Fourth of July picnic and fireworks. She has not attended the picnic before, instead keeping to her own Independence Day tradition of making a stop at a local fire station. And after Democratic governors rejected the White House’s initial offer to have her speak to them instead of Biden, she was also added to the meeting and closed it with a speech urging unity and sticking with the president.

That’s her keeping close to Biden — but it’s also Biden keeping her close.

Despite her efforts, Democratic politics has started to reshape around her — as has former President Donald Trump’s campaign, which has already begun attacking Harris. Several officials told CNN they have begun chiding donors who complain that they don’t think she can win, arguing that they need to stop and get on board with her. Other officials and advisers said plans are underway to convince Biden to immediately throw his support behind Harris, release his Democratic delegates and ask them to follow his choice. Former presidents and party leaders would then follow suit, they believe, in hopes of avoiding a contentious fight to lead the Democratic ticket.

A more open race, these top Democrats hope, would be for Harris’ running mate, with a focus on leading Democratic governors. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear are the most discussed; the list also includes Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Tim Walz of Minnesota. But even that is fraught, as it would deny Harris the deference given to every other modern presidential nominee to pick their own running mate.

A Democratic senator offered an extended and very colorful metaphor for describing the movement to Harris, likening Biden and his vice president to a star quarterback who needs to be taken off the field and their backup.

We start talking in the huddle: ‘Do we put in the backup QB?’ The backup knows our team, the backup knows the plays, the backup has played in the NFL,” the senator said. “The crowd in the stands full of passionate fans starts chanting: ‘Put in the kid from Alabama!’ ‘Put in the QB from Wisconsin!’ All just because the backup threw an interception earlier. But we know the backup and have confidence in them.”

The senator said that’s the difference between the donors who are handwringing about Harris’ chances and many of those who are trying to focus on what the realistic options are now.

“I just want to say to all the fans: ‘Do you not get that they’ve only played college, they’ve never played a single play in the NFL? They don’t know our team or the plays?’” the senator said. “The players are like, ‘That’s nuts. Let’s see if our star quarterback is coming back.’ But if he doesn’t, the idea of our suddenly drafting someone from a school with a different playbook who hasn’t played a single game in the NFL is a huge risk.”

There are also the logistics of making a new person the Democratic nominee. Harris would be able to take over the Biden campaign fundraising and infrastructure, since she is also part of the current ticket.

It’s a straight shot and she’s ready to roll. We’ve got to be decisive, too,” said Tim Ryan, the former Ohio congressman, who said he’s been getting flooded with private agreements from former colleagues and others after saying Biden needs to step aside to make room for Harris. “It plays right into the stereotype that Democrats are weak. With one fell swoop, you can change so many different narratives.”

Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz dismissed the speculation.

“President Biden is our nominee, Vice President Harris is our running mate, and we will win this November,” he said.

Running mate options

Much of the speculative running mate conversation for Harris has centered on Cooper, the two-term governor of North Carolina, and Beshear, the younger two-term governor of Kentucky. Both, like Harris, are former state attorneys general, and both have won with Republican support. Beshear attended the Biden meeting on Wednesday in person, while Cooper attended virtually.

Cooper has a relationship with Harris that goes back years, to when they were both attorneys general. In a late 2020 interview, after Cooper won his current term and Harris was elected vice president, the governor talked about how their “really good relationship” had continued into her Senate years, when she would occasionally consult with him on Trump judicial appointees from his home state.

“She knows what it’s like to hold a state office. I think that that’s very relatable to us as governors,” Cooper said then, calling Harris “whip smart.”

“I think she’s ready to do this job,” Cooper said.

He demurred in that interview when asked if he could envision a Harris-Cooper ticket one day, focusing on his 40-year unbeaten record as the only Democrat to consistently win in North Carolina.

Beshear also knows how to win tough races. He’s won the top office twice in a much more Republican-heavy state and did it while talking up Democratic values like reproductive rights and looking after trans kids. He’s extremely popular in his state, and has caught national attention for being young — he’s 46 — and a smooth communicator who has already this year racked up invites to come speak to Democratic events in Virginia, Montana and Iowa.

[Leadership]

I grew up being made to understand that everything about the United States of America was a model to the rest of the world. “In America” was a constant recourse in public discourse — whether we were talking about democracy, constitutionalism, federalism or public accountability. Anything American was the best for the world. It was one country where every detail of the life of a top public official, or an intending one, was examined by the media and the public. It was one country where if the president or governor was accused of impropriety with evidence, the next line of action was resignation. Even a stained presidential or governorship candidate would withdraw from the race.

I recall, as if it happened yesterday, the case of Senator Gary Hart in the run-up to the 1988 presidential election. He was rated as the frontrunner in the Democratic Party. Suddenly, rumours started popping up that he was having an extramarital affair with Donna Rice, a young activist. Although he flatly denied having liaisons with her and there was no concrete evidence beyond circumstantial facts, Hart had to withdraw from the race amid the unrelenting media scrutiny. The impression I got, even as a teenager with negligible understating of politics and political intrigues, was that America was a country where ethics actually mattered in the choice of public officers.

Let’s say the American democracy of today is not what it used to be and the adventure of President Donald Trump is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, threats it has had to navigate in centuries. As Americans prepare for the 2024 presidential poll, the whole world is watching how they will handle the “Trump Test”, which I would vaguely describe as when a rabble rouser, or — to be charitable — a non-conformist urinates on an established democratic order. Every system — be it political, economic, social or technological — must undergo its own crisis or face a litmus test at some point in time. It is a fact of human evolution. We cannot avoid or prevent it. We only have to navigate it.

The US situation is complicated by the fact that Trump’s opponent, President Joe Biden, is apparently not in a good state of health. He is 81. If he wins, he will be 82 when he starts a second term in January 2025 and will be 86 when his tenure ends. He is already the oldest to be sworn in — he was 78 in 2021, beating the record set by Trump who was 70 when he was inaugurated in 2017. To be clear, Biden’s problem is not his age. It is the uncertain state of his health, both physical and mental. His performance at the CNN debate, where he said many things that even his most loyal supporters admitted they could not comprehend, set off an alarm bell in his corner. This can’t be downplayed.

With Biden’s refusal to withdraw from the race — something we used to say only of a typical African leader who would prefer to be referred to as “late president” rather than “former president” — he appears to be putting personal interest first. Ageing is a normal human process and it is nothing to be ashamed of, strictly speaking. He can argue that while he has indeed had his moments, he has not broken any law — either legal or moral — and he can still hold his own. That is probably why he is insisting on remaining in the race despite his poor debate outing and unflattering stand in the opinion polls. It is now left to 160 million American voters and 538 electors to determine his fate.

Trump is currently favoured to defeat Biden in the November 5 election. And that really worries me. I will explain why — it has nothing to do with my political bias. Personally, I have become so disillusioned with politics, home and abroad, that I am no longer passionate about any party or candidate. In Nigeria, the mindless killing of nine youth corps members by a political mob in Bauchi in the 2011 general election killed something in me. I just can’t get over it. This has been worsened by the perennial deceit upon deceit in the Nigerian political games. I can’t deal. Abroad, the rise of far-right wingers and conspiracy theorists disheartened me. I have become a dispassionate onlooker.

I worry about the return of Trump mainly because many developing democracies look up to the US for inspiration and now they have bad examples to learn from. I was having a little discussion with someone who tried to justify some nonsense in Nigeria by saying “it happens even in America”. Before now, “in America” meant something good, something enviable. Role-modelling is nothing strange in the human society, whether at personal or national level. We compare systems and services and try to challenge ourselves to be as good as others. In my previous article, I compared the UK bureaucracy with that of Nigeria and challenged the government to reform our system.

Trump represents everything the typical African politician stands for: lack of values, disdain for accountability, emotional manipulation of voters, cheap propaganda and grandstanding. Ahead of his election as president in November 2016, Trump rode on anti-Islamic sentiments (he promised a travel ban on Muslims from some countries), racist messaging (“take back America” apparently because a black president, Barack Obama, was in office for eight years) and misogyny (he spoke condescending to a female interviewer and questioned if she was on her period). This was not the “in America” that I used to read about. In times past, he would have lost the election. No, he won.

During a pre-election debate with Mrs Hilary Clinton, he openly asked Russia to hack her e-mail. Ages ago, that was enough to cast him out of the presidential race or ignite voters’ revolt. No, he won. He was accused of sleeping with a porn star. He did not deny it. He was accused of saying he loved to grab women by their privates. He did not deny it. It appeared the more dirt was raked up about him, the stronger he became in the presidential race. His eccentric support base continued to grow and he kept saying the basest of things, tinged with fake news. Many saw him as an embarrassment to the US, but it mattered little as he got the strategic votes that he needed from his likeminded fans.

Being president did not mellow him or refine his character. He continued to say outrageous things, some blatantly racist. He described COVID-19 as “Kung Flu” — in obvious reference to its suspected Chinese origin. On national TV, he proposed ingesting Dettol as a treatment for COVID — right in front of disease experts. He was recorded allegedly asking for votes to be manipulated in the State of Georgia to help him overturn Biden’s haul in the 2020 presidential election. When he lost to Biden, he blatantly refused to concede, instead assailing the integrity of the ballot by insisting — without proof — that the election was rigged. That is exactly what a typical African politician would do.

Things only got worse. By convention, American states give all their electoral college votes to the candidate that wins in a state. Trump tried to break the tradition as his strategists sought to get some states won by Biden to split their votes. The height of it was on January 6, 2021 when the presidential results were to be ratified by US Congress at the final stage of the processes ahead of Biden’s inauguration. Trump’s supporters attacked the US Congress. Vice-President Mike Pence had to be smuggled out of the chamber. On social media, Trump described the political thugs as “patriots”, further hurting the emotions of families who lost loved ones in the unprecedented attack.

Out of office, Trump has had to face numerous criminal charges, including for fraud and paying hush money. He has been found guilty in both cases and there is still one more pending on the January 6 attack on the Congress. However, there is no law in America than bars a convicted felon from running for president. The laws were made probably under the assumption that convicted felons would not entertain the faintest thought of contesting. In the America of yore, a candidate would drop out of the race on moral grounds — even if there is no legal justification for it. That was what “in America” used to mean to me. But Trump, like a typical African politician, is testing the limits of the law.

If Trump is returned to the White House, it is not just that the credentials of American democracy will be endangered. It is not just that the stock of rabble rousers will rise. It is the cheap excuses and dangerous motivation it will offer the anti-democracy elements in Africa and other regions of the developing world that I worry about. We saw how President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil tried to copy from the Trump playbook during his tenure. We saw how his supporters attacked federal government buildings in the Brazilian capital after he was defeated in the 2022 election — a clear imitation of what the Trump thugs did in the US. Such “in America” modelling is a threat to the rest of the world.

In truth, American democracy has been suffering body blows for a while — long before the Trump adventure. The judiciary is highly partisan, exemplified by the Supreme Court judges who hardly reach verdicts on the basis of justice but rather on political and religious biases. The 2000 presidential face-off between George W Bush and Al Gore was settled by the Supreme Court justices based on their partisan leanings, not the facts of the case. The court has just granted some immunity to Trump — awarding him a get-out-of-jail (pun unintended) bonus. Meanwhile, Congress impeachment proceedings are hardly guided by a moral compass but fundamentally by partisanship.

Truth be told, democracy is facing a crisis globally. But it has been mostly about representation and accountability. Citizens are disenchanted with their representatives and think the current system is not serving the people well. A Trump comes along and rides the waves. Still, the Trump crisis is in a league of its own. It is about character. He has no shame. The Leader of the Free World — as Americans love to call their president — could be a convicted felon who is fully sold to Machiavellianism. In a country like Nigeria where democracy advocates are struggling to promote ethics as a core requirement for leadership, expect the shameless politicians to imitate Trump.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

CONVERSATIVES CRUSHED

The Labour Party, led by Sir Kier Starmer, has comprehensively defeated the Conversative Party in the UK general election. The manner of the victory was so chastening it could be termed a humiliation. I think the Tories paid the price for the scandal-ridden reign of Boris Johnson. The message from British voters was more like “enough is enough” or “anyone but the Tories”. It reminds me of the Change campaign of 2015 in Nigeria which was “anyone but Jonathan”. However, Starmer has been mostly ambivalent on critical policies regarding tax, immigration and healthcare. I won’t be surprised if Britons are on his neck by this time next year. He should enjoy the euphoria while it lasts. Politics.

THE LGBTQ+ QUESTION

In Nigeria, most of those who make initial comments on a national issue and stir long-lasting controversies often have two things in common: ignorance and mischief. The hysteria over the Samoa Agreement is my latest evidence. Nowhere in the agreement is any country mandated to apply LGBTQ+ rights. Yet, the internet has been in a frenzy. Many commenters have not read one word of the agreement. I know that 2027 politics has fully commenced but I think our politicians and their supporters should spare a thought for the peace of this country. In any case, we banned same-sex relationships in 2013 and there is yet no evidence than our lives are now better. Remarkable.

BOKO BACK?

When you say it is peace and safety, then a sudden destruction descends. Suspected Boko Haram terrorists suicide-bombed funeral and wedding ceremonies in Gwoza, Borno state, last weekend, killing dozens and injuring hundreds. Suicide-bombing had ceased for a while and we focused our energies on fighting insurgency — which is more conventional and territorial. But terrorism is tricky as the element of surprise is always there. Soft targets are always vulnerable. Are the insurgents so well cornered now that they are forced to change tactics? Are we entering a new phase in this war? Whatever it is, the security chiefs must return to the drawing board. The war is not over. Evidently.

NO COMMENT

Mr Amos Daniel, a 36-year-old driver, recently confessed to journalists that he stole his employer’s car on his first day at work and then testified in his church that he just bought a car. “I was employed as a driver. The first day I was employed, I stole my madam’s car to go and give testimony in church that I have bought a car and it is what God has done for me,” he told the media after being arrested by the police. Imagine the full volume of “Hallelujah!” in the church after his testimony. In many churches today, the evidence that you are serving a “living God” is cars, houses and bank account balances. But to steal a car and then testify in church thereafter is another level entirely. Wonderful.

All it has taken to expose the porous underbelly of American democracy is one bad debate night by an 81 year old incumbent president. President Joe Biden fared poorly in his first CNN debate for this election season. A combination of  cold, jet lag and old age troubles made him a bit nervous and uncollected. He was lost in the middle of sentences and seemed to forget his lines on familiar subjects even those where he has excelled as president. 

More destabilising perhaps was the fact that he  was sharing a debate podium with a known serial liar, habitual bully  and unashamed demagogue. That combination in an electoral opponent is enough to unhinge any honest contestant. But even at that, Trump’s negatives are what should have prepared Biden to come fighting. But he did not. He frequently landed weak blows and a miserable thud each time he tried to put up a fight. The strategy of treating Trump with kid gloves as, at best, a spoilt child did not work and never works in politics.

Biden was restrained, meek and a bit uncollected. Trump was his usual blustery, hectoring and serially lying self. He won the debate not by repenting from Trumpism but by repeatedly punching a weakened Biden. In the end, supporters and opponents of the sitting president agreed that he was hardly at his best that Thursday night.

Concern about Biden’s bad showing at that debate has refused to go away.  Concern among supporters has grown into anxiety and even division among Democrats. The Democratic Party is riled and divided. Some would like Biden to quit the stage and yield place to a younger candidate with a better chance of defeating Donald Trump in the November elections. A solid core of Democrats led by majority of governors still believe Biden is their best bet in the circumstance.

Others including of course Biden’s immediate family and his core supporters insist that notwithstanding the bad debate night, Biden is their best bet. He is a tested hand. He has experience, track record and can be trusted by allies and respected, if not exactly feared, by adversaries. After all , he had out- debated and defeated Trump in 2020. He is best suited to do it again than would a totally new hand so late in the day.

The Republicans, especially Trump and his diehard devotees, are triumphant. They see Mr. Biden as a man weakened by age, unstated infirmity and incremental incapacity especially in unscripted situations. They are silent on the fact of Trump being nearly of the same age bracket as Biden.

On the whole, it is bad enough that America is now faced with a presidential choice weighed down by geriatric concerns. It is a binary choice between two ageing men whose competitiveness has been reduced to a comparison between two geriatric health records. It is even worse that both parties have become so limited in their leadership options that they seem stuck with a choice between a convicted blustering old crook and a tired good old man.

Biden’s debate performance means so much because of the peculiarities of American democracy and society.  America is a nation built on an ideal, on a creed of equality of the people and the rejection of monarchical absolutism. A creedalnation that covers such a wide area of territory can best be forged through effective communication. At first, it was radio that forged that communication link. But radio was constrained by voice and sound. The advent of television completed the link by adding images to voice, giving birth to the television nation. People as far flung as from Boston to Alaska , from Washington DC to North Dakota could now hear and see common images of their political leaders and other key influencers.

America’s is an image and television driven democracy. The political contest in America thrives on big marketing, advertisement and image engineering. Over time, television and the media have come to overwhelm American politics with their influence to the extent that the political persona has become something of a pseudo celebrity. The culture of stardom and celebrity created by Hollywood and the music industry have come to rub off on politics, luring the politician into the limelight of celebrity culture.

The ability to appear on most major channels and networks, to out- talk your opponent and reduce the urgent needs of the nation to a marketing selling point have become the deciding factors in whom the electorate votes for. The political star that must sell should wear the correct tie colour, be made up by make-up artists, rehash the catch phrases of the moment and appear to be on the side of Joe the plumber and Jane the housewife. In all of it, the ability to convince, to play the salesman at short notice has become a major indicator of preparedness to lead America.

A candidate who has all the ideas on how to sustain America’s greatness but fares poorly on the television screen  may end up being just “the best president America may never get”. On the contrary, the smooth talker, the guy who has an uncanny ability to combine some substance with celebrity appeal stands a better chance of moving into the White House to lord it over America and, by implication, the entire world for a good four years in the first instance.

Therefore, Biden’s recent bad debate night meant a  tragedy for America’s television image driven politics. This is why the options have narrowed to whether Biden should stay in the race or take a dignified exit. Either option is no easy route. If he were to quit, the Democratic party will be jolted into finding a substitute barely five months to the election. The possibility that the substitute will find his  or her feet so readily and quickly and be in a strong position to defeat Donald Trump is slim. That option effectively means that the Democrats would be ready to lose the election just to make the point that they opted for a younger, more vibrant candidate.

In the alternative, keep Biden in the race and try to fix his lapses and the degradations of old age on his electability.  This requires a closer management of the optics of his campaign events,  better preparations and more indepth homework on Trump’s weaknesses especially his compulsive lying and liberty with facts. The chances of a Biden win can are better if he stays in the race. But of course, those opposed to his staying on are more concerned about the energy and style of governance that he will lead if he secures a second term. In that regard, his experience and mature knowledge of people should equip him with good men and women to pull off a credible administration.

Those who wish Biden well are either genuine supporters or people who live with a mortal fear of the catastrophe of a second Trump presidency. People are genuinely concerned about the future of democracy in the hands of a lover of dictators and a self declared autocrat. Worse still, Trump’s looming threat to the international order is likely to tilt the balance in favour of the forces of authoritarianism. A man who openly admires Vladimir Putin, Xi Jiping, Kim Jung Un etc cannot be placed in the White House without overturning the world order.

Elsewhere in other political cultures, a mere one night of television debate would not mean so much. Take Nigeria for instance. We run a US-type presidential system with a cloned constitution along the same lines. But we hardly subject our presidential candidates to any verbal or intellectual rigour. Our presidential candidates do not have to debate with each other. They do not have to have any mastery of the most urgent national issues. They do not have to reel out statistics of the national economy of other vital statistics. They only need to be the choice of some party, loosely defined.

In 1999 when the military was handing over to a civil democracy, the two front runners for the presidency were Olusegun Obasanjo for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Olu Falaye for the Alliance for Democracy (AD). At the height of the campaigns, the idea was floated that there should be a television debate between the two. Somehow, neither party was enthusiastic about the debate. Time was allowed to elapse and the debate never took place.

In Buhari’s two terms as civilian president, there was no debate between him and any of his opponents. Both Atiku Abubakar and Goodluck Jonathan may have been willing to debate with Mr. Buhari but the latter was not  there for any debate. He lacked the capacity to string sentences together. He lacked any demonstrable knowledge or conviction on whatever were the raging national issues of his time. No one knows what he knew or did not know about anything and everything.

A reclusive and aloof man of few words and scanty ideas, Mr. Buhari was not the type to talk his way to power. He knew only how to cobble together an alliance of strange bed fellows to forge a winning alliance. Power was his means and end as well. In power, he feasted on the combined ability of his devotees and staffers to do most of the talking in no coordinated manner. What was important was that he was in power and at the helm.

As late as the 2023 presidential election campaign season, the matter of debates among the candidates was toyed with but dropped like hot potato. While Mr. Peter Obi and Abubakar Atiku were inclined to engage in open debates and media sessions, not so with Bola Tinubu. In fact, the campaign season witnessed Mr. Tinubu at his most controversial and incomprehensible. At campaign events, he was quoted as uttering gibberish, a point that fuelled speculations about his exact health condition. People who heard him uttering “Bulaba; Baba blu… Bulaba…” could not make out what language he was speaking. The obvious conclusion in street corners and bars was that the man was suffering from some mental health conditions that had affected both his comprehension and elocution.

When he showed up to present his agenda at the Chatham House in London, he could hardly answer any question. Instead, he lined up party faithful and supporting cronies on his entourage as the ones who would answer questions on his behalf  since he preferred ‘team work’.

Eventually, there was no debate between Mr. Tinubu and any of the other major candidates. There was not even a face-to- face interview between Tinubu and anyone or medium of note. But when the election results were announced, Tinubu, the man who said practically nothing to any one, was declared the winner over and above the other two who spent mental energy dissecting the nation’s problems and urgent challenges.

Therefore, the favourite Nigerian presidential candidate cannot be a television  hero or media celebrity. Yet Nigerians have shown more than passing interest in the America’s presidential elections than other nationals. It may be a subliminal celebration of what we long for but do not yet have.