•   Allegedly paid $665,700 for house•Arraignment likely today in Abuja

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) may arraign a former Minister of Power,  Saleh Mamman, today for allegedly  laundering over N33, 804, 830, 593.73.

Mamman, who served under ex-President Muhammadu Buhari, is expected to face 12-count charge, based on offences he allegedly committed during his tenure between August 2019 and September 2021.

The offences border  on conspiracy to commit money laundering, and possession and use of known proceeds of criminal conduct.

According to some of the charges, Mamman allegedly conspired with other officials of the Ministry of Power and private companies to “indirectly convert the total sum of N33, 804, 830, 593.73, which was part of the proceeds of unlawful activity”.

The EFCC said the unlawful conversion was a “criminal breach of trust in relation to the funds released for Mambilla and Zungeru Hydroelectric Power Plant Projects by the Federal Government of Nigeria”.

Also, he was alleged to have contravened Section 18(a), 15(2)(b) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act 2011 as Amended), and punishable under Section 15(3) of the same Act.

Out of the sum, the EFCC said the former minister allegedly made a cash payment of $665,700(then worth about N200 million) for the purchase and acquisition of a landed property at No. 12A & B Lungi Street, Off Cairo Street, in Wuse II part  of Abuja.

The cash was paid to  MOHIBA INVESTMENT LTD (acting through Mohammed Asheik Jidda), without going through a financial institution.

The EFCC said Mamman therefore, allegedly committed an offence contrary to Sections 1 and 18(a) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act, 2011 (as Amended), and punishable under Section 16(2)(b) of the same Act,

He was also alleged to have violated Sections 30(1Xf) and 22(a) of the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act, and punishable under Section 30(2)(a) of the same Act.

The EFCC said  between the 21 day of August 2019 and the 1st day of September 2021, in Abuja, the Ex-Minister  indirectly took possession of Houses 93A & B, Ahmed Joda Crescent, Kado, Abuja, which property he reasonably ought to know was derived from the proceeds of an unlawful act, to wit: criminal breach of trust in relation to the funds released for the Mambilla and Zungeru Hydroelectric Power Plant Projects by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The agency said Mamman  committed an offence contrary to Section 15(2)d) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act, 2011 (as Amended) and punishable under Section 15(3) of the same Act.

He was accused of spending  N20million of the project funds  to  rent a One-Bedroom Apartment in Sammy Court Resort, which sum he  reasonably ought to know formed part of the proceeds of an unlawful act contrary to Section 15(2)(d) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act, 2011 (as Amended) and punishable under Section 15(3) of the same Act.

He was alleged to have  between January 20, 2020 and the 31st day of December 2020, in Abuja, through MISBAHU IDRIS, his Personal Assistant as Minister of Power, used the aggregate sum of N130,778,000:00 from the power  plants’ votes, contrary to Section 15(2\d) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act, 2011 (as Amended) and punishable under Section 15(3) of the same Act.

The charges were filed and signed by Adeyinka Olumide-Fusika(SAN) ; Rotimi Oyedepo Iseoluwa(SAN); Bikikisu Bala;  Suleiman I. Suleiman; Chineye C. Okezie; and Abbas O. Muhammed.

Bearing any change in plan, the ex-minister will be arraigned at the Federal High Court, Abuja presided over by Justice James Omotosho.

[TheNation]

The Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, on Wednesday, said his administration has started the process of preparing the 2025 budget.

The governor also dismissed the threat by the Martin Amaewhule-led faction of the state House of Assembly that he should present the 2024 budget again, saying that having defected to the All Progressives Congress from the Peoples Democratic Party platform on which they got election, their seats remained vacant.

Fubara said this when he received on a solidarity visit, the leadership structure, critical stakeholders, opinion leaders, women and youths of Etche and Omuma Local Government Areas, led by Ogbakor Etche, the apex socio-cultural organisation of Etche Ethnic Nationality Worldwide, at the Government House, Port Harcourt.

In a statement issued by the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Nelson Chukwudi, and sent to newsmen, the governor described the recent ranting of the Amaewhule faction as noise-making from delusional folks.

He urged the “25 former lawmakers” to wake up from their slumber, adding that the ship of governance in the state was sailing smoothly.

The lawmakers loyal to the former governor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, had been having issues with Fubara over the political control of the state.

After an unsuccessful attempt to oust the governor, resulting in the demolition of the Assembly quarters, the lawmakers announced their defection to the APC, a move the state PDP latched on to declare their seats vacant.

A Rivers State High Court sitting in Port Harcourt, the state capital, granted an interim injunction restraining the pro-Wike lawmakers from parading themselves as legislators in the state.

However, the Court of Appeal in Abuja, on July 4, affirmed Amaewhule and 24 other lawmakers as members of the Rivers State House of Assembly.

Holding a session at the state Legislative Quarters on Monday, the court-reinstated lawmakers asked Fubara to re-present the 2024 budget to the Assembly and gave him a one-week ultimatum.

The government, in a swift move, approached the court to restrain the state Chief Judge and others from recognising the Amaewhule-led Assembly, while it also appealed the judgment of the Appeal Court at the Supreme Court.

Foreclosing the idea of presenting the 2024 budget again, Fubara said his administration had commenced preparing details of the 2025 Appropriation Bill, with priority placed on education, healthcare and agriculture.

“Let me assure you that agriculture is an area that we have promised the very special and peace-loving people of Rivers State that our 2025 budget, which we have already started preparing, will address.

“Don’t bother about those people that are delusional. They think we are still sleeping. Let me tell you people so that they can hear anywhere they are.

“I wanted to help them, sincerely because I know them. And I have said it before, these are people that I have helped. I paid their children’s school fees. I paid their house rent. So, I wanted to help them.

“We all knew what happened when they crossed (defected), and how did they cross? Because of our God, for them to make that mistake, they crossed. They are gone, and they are gone. Now, let me tell you: when I wanted to help them, I accepted to help them because we are all one. We disagree to agree as it is said,” he said.

He added, “They thought they were smart. What is holding them is the declaration of their seats vacant as done on December 13, 2023. We are not doing any budget to nullify that decision. It is what will send them to their villages.

“As I am talking to you, I have started preparing my budget for 2025, which I am going to present very soon. And, in that budget, my key areas will be education, healthcare and agriculture.”

Fubara said the three priority areas would ensure that even if more roads were constructed, emphasis would be placed on quality healthcare services for the people of the state.

“Our children need to go to quality schools. Even if they can’t go to private schools, let them go to the public ones that have standards. We need to go to good health facilities owned by the government and get standard healthcare services.

“Even if we cannot afford those private hospitals, when you go to the public ones, you can get the same services with qualified professionals. That is our thinking.

“And when we get to the issue of agriculture, it will address the issue of unemployment. When we start engaging our youths, they won’t have time to be involved in crime. So, our thinking is to secure and protect our state,” he added.

He reiterated that he was fighting nobody as insinuated, adding that being loyal did not mean losing one’s liberty, sense of discretion and doing what was right.

“I want to assure you of one thing: we are not fighting anybody. We appreciate what God has used people to also do in our lives. But, we are not going to rule (govern) this state on our bent knees. We will rule standing this way I am standing.

“If it is only being on our knees to rule that is the way that they will see us as being loyal, then, I will pack my few things that I have here, and go and relax in my house comfortably, because it will be a disaster, not just to me but to everyone in the state and even my generation.

“So, I will continue to stand tall and stand on the side of the truth. Let me thank the President General (of Ogbakor Etche) for bringing your people, the great people of Etche and Omuma together to come and pay us a solidarity visit,” he said.

Fubara urged the people of Etche Nation to sustain their support for his administration because its vision was clear and encompassing to advance the well-being of all Rivers people.

He promised to work with the Nigeria Police to resolve the issue of herdsmen attacks on farmlands and farmers in the area, including the issue of illegal dredging activities.

The Oyeisi Etche, Eze Emmanuel Opurum, promised the support of the Etche and Omuma people to Fubara to ensure his administration succeeded.

President-General of Ogbakor Etche Worldwide, Sir Charles Nwonuala, said the Etche people came to pledge their support, confidence and faith in Fubara and his administration.

The Head of Rivers State Civil Service, Dr George Nwaeke, said the Oyeisi Etche, the entire leadership structure, including the 70 academic professors from Etche Nation came together with the women and youths in solidarity with Fubara and his administration.

Meanwhile, the PDP has cautioned the Amaewhule faction of Rivers Assembly to refrain from actions and statements that could disrupt peace and governance in the state.

The party also urged the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, to safeguard democracy, peace, and security in the state.

The National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, insisted on Wednesday that according to the self-executory provision of Section 109(1)(g) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, the lawmakers were no longer part of the state House of Assembly.

“The national leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for the umpteenth time, cautions the former members of the Rivers State House of Assembly who lost their seats upon defection from the PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC) to desist from actions and utterances that are capable of disrupting peace and governance in the state.

“The party counsels the former lawmakers to wake up to the reality that they are no longer members of the Rivers State House of Assembly by the self-executory provision of Section 109(1)(g) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) and as such cannot gather or issue any notice to the state governor in the capacity of members of Rivers State House of Assembly,” the statement read.

It said their action seeking to assume the powers of the state House of Assembly was to cause a crisis, undermine and disrupt the democratic and constitutional order in the state.

The party urged the residents to stay vigilant, adhere to the law, and collaborate to ensure ongoing stability, peace, and the delivery of democratic benefits.

[Punch]

The Federal Government has said food items to be imported into the country in the next 150 days will be subjected to recommended retail price to bring down the high cost of food in Nigeria.

This came on a day the lawmaker representing Borno South senatorial district, Senator Ali Ndume, alleged that the food crisis in the country was further worsened by the fact that President Bola Tinubu was not accessible to be advised by lawmakers and even cabinet ministers.

Recall that the government a few days ago, suspended import duties and taxes on food items, such as rice and wheat, among others.

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, who disclosed this on his X (formerly Twitter) handle yesterday, said having suspended duties and taxes on food items, the Federal Government will take a step further to subject items to be imported to what he described as the recommended retail price.

He also assured that the prices of food items in the country will crash in the next 180 days, and pleaded with Nigerians to be patient with the government.

The minister said: “Our administration has unveiled a series of strategic measures aimed at addressing the high food prices currently affecting our nation. These measures will be implemented over the next 180 days, including 150-day duty-free import window for food commodities
“It also includes suspension of duties, tariffs, and taxes for the importation of certain food commodities through land and sea borders. These commodities include maize, husked brown rice, wheat, and cowpeas.

“Imported food commodities will be subjected to a Recommended Retail Price, RRP. We understand concerns about the quality of these imports, especially regarding their genetic composition.
‘’The government assures that all standards will be maintained to ensure the safety and quality of food items for consumption.

“The Federal Government will import 250,000 metric tons of wheat and 250,000 metric tons of maize. These semi-processed commodities will be supplied to small-scale processors and millers across the country.’’

The minister stated further: “There will also be engagement with relevant stakeholders to set a GMP and purchase surplus food commodities to re-stock the National Strategic Food Reserve; Ramp-up production for the 2024/2025 farming cycle

“Continued support to smallholder farmers during the ongoing wet season farming through existing government initiatives; strengthening and accelerating dry season farming nationwide.’’

The minister also explained that over the next 14 days, the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit, PFSCU, and the Economic Management Team, EMT, will, in collaboration, meet with respective agencies to finalize implementation frameworks for the new policy of making food cheaply available for Nigerians.

‘’We will ensure that information is publicly available to facilitate the participation of all relevant stakeholders across the country,’’ he added.

We can’t see President to advise him on food crisis —Ndume

Meanwhile, Senator Ali Ndume, representing Borno. South, yesterday on a BBC Hausa Service interview, said the biggest problem confronting members of the National Assembly is the alleged closed-door policy of the government, where even some members of Tinubu’s cabinet cannot see the President, let alone lawmakers who intend to see him and discuss issues pertaining to their constituencies, including the food crisis.

Senator Ndume also warned that unless steps are taken against widespread hunger in the country, malnutrition will affect many in Nigeria, stressing that it has already affected children in the North-West.

The lawmaker, who noted that a UN report had warned that 82 million Nigerians would find themselves hungry without food in the next five years, said: “We are afraid that one day, a person may go to the market with money and be confronted with a situation where there won’t be food to buy.

“If hunger persists, it’s the children that suffer most, the children lack food for healthy growth. This is a situation you find in places where there is war or famine.

“We’ve seen how it happened in Niger and South Sudan where children have died. Now the situation is rearing its ugly head in Nigeria.”

He expressed worry that the previous government had food banks for emergency needs but lamented that such food banks are no more.

“This is a matter of serious concern and something should be done quickly about it,’’ Senator Ndume said.

When asked why he couldn’t meet the President and talk to him over such matters privately instead of talking to the media, he alleged that it was extremely difficult now as “even some ministers cannot see the President.”

[Vanguard]

In this article, Nduka Nwosu picks a few examples of men whose selfless efforts at moving the economy to the next level, give us hope that the future will be great someday.

Just last Monday, there was a newspaper report that the global analytics company S & P was very impressed with what it saw at the Dangote Refinery, asserting that the company with a capacity to refine 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily was capable of solving Nigeria’s foreign exchange problems through export of some of its products as well as catalyse economic development.

We as a country have been told severally that we stand to make a tremendous haul of our deliverables in the oil and gas sector if only we can put our acts together and do the needful. How many of us are doing the needful in our chosen areas of endeavour? Have we had the Aliko Dangotes in the past and are they still here working quietly to redefine our economy in the right direction despite the pains and potholes of the moment?

The private sector which should take off where the government kick starts policy implementation has been emasculated by potholes of corrupt practices that a Dangote has through painful effort successfully traversed to get to where he is. And now the US-based Standards & Poors says Dangote Refinery can help us swim to the Promised Land.

Even now Dangote is crying aloud that the enemies of the economy conspiring with the IOCs are working hard to destroy the new venture. How sad.

That is not a welcome news. We know the success of the refinery would deny many their illegitimately acquired daily bread, the same people that call Dangote names.  Think of all the scandals every great man of endeavour has passed through to have his name engraved in the hall of fame, the Nigerian Hall of Fame to be specific. What have we not heard of an Aliko Dangote? The good, the bad and the ugly? Yet he remains focused etching his name in the sand of time like great grandfather Al-Hassan Dantata.

 Dangote will be glad to say he helped to turn around the Nigerian economy with the vision from the Almighty. The man has enough accomplishments that will earn him a place in the Hall of Fame of the Nigerian economy. And there are many Dangotes all over the polity who deserve a mention and a place in the Hall of Fame, the heroes of our future economy

Alhaji Al Hassan Dantata

The success story of the Dantatas and the Dangotes is traceable to Alhaji Al-Hassan Dantata who was considered the richest man in West Africa until his death in 1955. He had a huge influence on economic development in the north, especially in shaping the business acumen of the emerging Dantatas and Dangotes. He was the great-grandson of Aliko Dangote from the mother’s side and father of Aminu Dantata founder of Express Petroleum and Gas Ltd and earlier CEO of Alhassan Dantata and Sons Group, a trading company in kola nuts, groundnuts, and foreign goods. Al-Hassan Dantata’s company’s groundnut pyramids made the north famous in the export sector of the old Northern region. His pioneering efforts in the export sector make him a fitting candidate for the hall of fame of pioneers of our new economy.

The Chagoury Brothers

I had thought many years ago that the Chagoury family were foreign to this country until recently. These are Nigerians of Lebanese extraction. Their parents arrived in Nigeria in the first half of the 20th century and had their children as Nigerians. Two distinguished members of the family the elder Gilbert, an ambassador extraordinaire to many countries, and businessman, and younger sibling Ronald, had traversed Business Nigeria like a colossus, providing meaningful employment to over 100,000 Nigerians across 50 years of active investment in various sectors of the economy. The Chagoury Brothers have made an impact in the manufacturing sector across the length and breadth of corporate Nigeria. 

Just like Dangote, the Chagourys have spread their business investment savvy to other African countries. Of course, we can talk of Nigerians who are citizens of other countries who have impacted positively on the economic development of such countries in West Africa. Ali Bongo who was overthrown in a military coup, was said to have been flown to Gabon with other Biafran kids during the war and was adopted by President Omar Bongo. In Britain, the US, Canada and Australia, Nigerians have risen to occupy high offices and as parliamentarians, special advisers and ministers. Home indeed is where you make it.

Bola Tinubu

The floods returned to Lagos last week with panic and horrible stories of victims, some of whom lost their lives. It was worse at Bar Beach before Governor Bola Tinubu with the Chagoury Brothers translated a once chilling experience of the Atlantic Ocean to that of a new city; Eko Atlantic City. Tinubu himself projects the image of an adventurer excited by new ideas and can-do possibilities. The list is quite impressive. The purchase and recognition of an idea when it comes, is part of the reason Lagos has become the leader of an economy anchored on maximisation of its internally generated revenue (IGR).

Now as president, he is constructing a 700-kilometer coastal highway (about half the distance from Florida to New York City) with the Hitech Construction Company Limited as the contractor. And there are many more such projects on the table. That is the story we want to hear with all the despondency that is afflicting the economy.

Innoson Motors

I was privileged to visit the two factories of Innoson Motors in Enugu and Nnewi shortly before the commissioning in 2010 by President Goodluck Jonathan. What amazed me the most was the revelation from the odyssey of Chief Innocent Ifediaso Chukwuma (CON). Born in 1961, Chukwuma whose early beginnings sound like that of another great investor, Cosmas Maduka, was barely schooled when he went into the import business of motorbikes and the accessories. Today he has reversed the trend. Innoson Motors in my presence was hosting the then Ghanaian minister of trade interested in importing the products from his factory. From being a net importer of motorbikes, Chief Chukwuma now exports what could rightly pass as a Nigerian manufactured car brand. Chief Chukwuma has promised that if the drivers of the economy can give him steel-related products through Ajaokuta or Aladja Steel companies, a near 80 percent production of a Nigerian-made car is possible.

Yet, Chukwuma was at a point scandalised by the very system he was elevating as running away from payment of duties or was owing a bank when in fact the bank was owing him

Governor Alex Otti

Governor of Abia State, Dr. Alex Otti, an economist and banker, has proved that daring uncharted territories of impossibility can come with success and greatness. He did it in First Bank and Diamond Bank and now in God’s own state Abia, long driven to abysmal heights of structural and infrastructure development from its creation. What previously looked unattainable in reconstructing Abia to compete effectively with other progressive states of the south-east and the country, is witnessing a turnaround, a dream come true by the day. Aba, the once economic hub of the south-east, is witnessing a gradual and steady reconstruction. Otti has abolished the monstrous pension and gratuity the managers of the state used to clean the economy. Prebendal politics is over because he is not accountable to any godfather. Infrastructure as a tool of economic reawakening, has taken the better part of the state in addition to clearing arrears of salaries and pensions of civil servants and pensioners. A new lease of life has come into Abia. Otti is moving on despite the efforts of the opposition to scandalise his administration’s achievements. He is a candidate of the heroes of our new economy.

Dr. Allen Onyeama

Can we ever complete discussion on heroes of our new economy without making mention of Dr Allen Onyeama, founder and CEO of Air Peace. We saw and keep seeing his war against foreign airlines who have been fleecing the economy with killing air fares. Onyeama’s entry into the euro, dollar and pound sterling fetching routes rewrote the narrative. Air fares to these routes crashed with the airlines and their home governments screaming blue murder and digging potholes of destabilisation for Air Peace, having pegged its fares to an affordable minimum. Onyeama is still in the trenches leading his squadrons against the fireworks of the enemy. He has proven that patriotism soars higher than the material dollar each time he offered to fly Nigerians home gratis, from troubled spots. 

He has been called names he does not deserve by those who want him to lose focus, but he has picked a few lessons from Michelle Obama that whenever they go low, soar higher and higher. Onyeama is a candidate of the heroes of our new economy.

Sir L.P. Ojukwu

So much has been written about Sir Phillip Odumegwu Ojukwu, parliamentarian, businessman and first Nigerian president of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. His accomplishments and investments as a pace setter are non-pareil for his time, documented for research for students of business studies.

You can talk about him as the father of a “rebel,” first and last head of state of the defunct Biafran Republic, Gen Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, but Sir LP Ojukwu believed in the Nigerian project, disagreeing with his son on many issues, yet he was a trail blazer whose investments are still noticeable in the former federal capital territory of Lagos and elsewhere in the country. Post humously, Sir Phillip was a pace setter that left some lessons for the drivers of a progressive economy.

Femi Otedola

Femi Otedola’s name will always resonate as the comeback kid who went down and came up with a bang. His relevance in the Nigerian economy will be sketched in what he is doing right now in the power sector where he drives the Geregu Power Plc. As chairman of Forte Oil PLC, he moved the company to one of the best performing oil companies at the Nigerian Stock Exchange. To accelerate economic growth through sustainable power generation in Nigeria is the mission of Geregu Power under Otedola with a vision to be the leading provider of integrated power supply in the country, generating electric power supply to the National Grid managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). 

This is a tall order; Otedola whose father was once the Governor of Lagos state, knows his mission is in business, not politics.

If Otedola can rewrite the story of the Nigerian power sector, he would have made himself one of the greats in Nigerian history. He is a known name in philanthropy which makes him happy serving humanity with selfless motivation. 

Chief Michael Adeniyi Agbolade Ishola Adenuga

Chief Mike Adenuga brought positive change to the economy when he challenged the entry of foreign telecom operators, floating a completely indigenous outfit Globacom which helped to rewrite the story of telephone operation in the history of Nigeria. Chief Adenuga’s greatness is found not in his foray into the banking and oil business where he equally distinguished himself, but in his consistent effort to make Glo one of the best if not the best telecom company in the African continent.

Glo becomes annoying when it rains and its facilities experience a collapse. Notwithstanding, the telecom company is the pride of the nation, our own thing. No doubt Adenuga remains a pride of the nation

Timothy Adeola Odutola (Odutola tyres)

Chief Timothy Adeola Odutola is best known for his brand product Odutola Tyres, just like Ugo Tyres in the east. The question everyone should ask is, where is Odutola Tyres or Ugochukwu Tyres today, our early indigenous efforts in the manufacturing export sector? Was there no succession plan to sustain and expand these factories? A man was inspired to quit his job as a court clerk and went into the trading business in damask clothes and fishing with emphasis on nets. He was so successful he expanded across many cities outside his hometown Ijebu Ode. We learn the businessman traded in cocoa and palm produce before establishing factories in various parts of the country. The tyre business which came on stream in 1967 has gone under just like Michelin and Dunlop that closed shop and left the country. What happened to us that we could not protect our own? Sir Odutola, OBE CON and first President Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, is a hero and pace setter of the new economy.

Leventis Brothers

Just like the Chagoury Brothers, the Leventis Brothers were very prominent in the business development of the economy long before independence and the late 1990s with business interests that span various parts of the country. We heard of AP and AG Leventis but the pioneer was Anastasios Leventis who held the title of the Babalaje of Egbaland and founder of the Leventis Group. 

In 1982 I was in Northern Cyprus to interview cessationist President of Northern Cyprus, Rauf Denktash. Ambassador Leventis whose country Greece was backing the government of Cyprus against the cessionists conveyed the displeasure of the Greek government over my robust exposure of Northern Cyprus, expressing his willingness to have an interview with me so I can hear the story from the Greek perspective. The trip was halted because of a clause in Greek immigration law that says you cannot come to Greece if you had been to Northern Cyprus.

This is an attempt at a fair representation of the new and old heroes of the Nigerian economy. We must not forget what they have done and keep doing to keep corporate Nigeria alive in the short and long run while expecting the best in our momentary lamentations of a flailing economy. The activities of men and women like these, will take us to the promised land. They are the men of the new era of economic growth and stability, the heroes of our future economy.

For almost two weeks, we have witnessed the resurgence of fuel queues across the country.  This of course exposes the never-ending mess in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry that has been with us for more than five decades. The main concern now is that the Dangote Refinery, which had been expected to guarantee fuel availability with all the multiplier effects, may not even change the narrative. Although currently producing diesel, jet fuel and polypropylene, the expectation that the world’s largest single-train petroleum refining facility would begin producing gasoline by next month is being hampered by what the company sees as a conspiracy by the International Oil Companies (IOC) operating in the country to “deliberately and willfully” frustrate its efforts.

Two weeks ago, Vice President of Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Devakumar Edwin, accused the IOCs of hiking the cost of crude above the market price, thereby forcing their refinery to import crude from countries as far as the United States, with its attendant high costs. “It seems that the IOCs’ objective is to ensure that our petroleum refinery fails. It is either they are deliberately asking for a ridiculous/humongous premium or they simply state that crude is not available,” Edwin alleged. “At some point, we paid $6 over and above the market price. This has forced us to reduce our output as well as import crude from countries as far as the US, increasing our cost of production.”

Putting the blame at the doorstep of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) which continues “to issue import licences at the expense of our economy and at the cost of the health of the Nigerians who are exposed to carcinogenic products” Edwin added that the IOCs “are keen on exporting the raw materials to their home countries, creating employment and wealth for their countries, adding to their GDP, and dumping the expensive refined products into Nigeria – thus making us to be dependent on imported products.” And in what can easily be described as an emotional argument, Edwin alleged that these licences “are being issued, in large quantities, to traders who are buying the extremely high sulphur diesel from Russia and dumping it in the Nigerian market.”

Before I come to the substance of my intervention, let me state that I am aware of how Alhaji Aliko Dangote’s business model divides opinions in our country. I have heard the argument that Dangote enjoys enormous government patronage and support for his projects. I have heard about allegations of monopolistic tendencies. And not all these charges can be dismissed as sour grapes. When a man amasses the humongous wealth available to Dangote in our kind of environment, there will always be legitimate questions to ask.  Not only by competitors but also by consumers of his products. But in a nation where the easiest route to stupendous wealth is not production but politics and where people with no visible means of livelihood are billionaires, there is also something to say for those who work very hard by investing in production, creating direct and indirect jobs for hundreds of thousands of our people.

In my tribute to Globacom Chairman, Dr Mike Adenuga (Jnr) when he marked his 70th birthday in April last year, I used the Biblical ‘parable of talents’ to illustrate a point about the distribution of certain opportunities in Nigeria. “The Bible makes it clear that the master understood the capacity of each servant, which explains the disparity in the number of talents he gave them. The Nigerian state might have given either five or two ‘talents’ to a few, but there are thousands of other Nigerian businessmen who have been handed a ‘talent’ each,” I wrote while arguing that the issue should not be about the quantum of ‘talents’ anybody was given but rather in the efforts they put into deploying those ‘talents’ for the advancement of society. I also referenced the poignant admonition by the late South African icon, Mr Nelson Mandela to his country’s music star, Yvonne Chaka Chaka: “It is what we make of what we have, not what we are given, that separates one person from another.”

Now to the main issue. Section 109 (4)(b) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 says that “the supply of crude oil shall be commercially negotiated between the lessee [of upstream petroleum operations] and the crude oil refining licensee, having regard to the prevailing international market price for similar grades of crude oil.” But Dangote Refinery, according to what he told me on Monday, is being asked to negotiate with the marketing arms of lessees which are not domiciled in Nigeria (and at a higher price) for their crude needs. I am not surprised that the IOCs are reluctant to meet whatever may be their domestic obligations to Dangote Refinery. I recall a similar situation, albeit in the power sector, recounted in my book, ‘Power, Politics and Death: A front-row account of Nigeria under President Yar’Adua’. In March 2008, then Shell International CEO, Mr. Jeroen van der Veer, visited Nigeria to outline his company’s apprehensions about the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). I was at the meeting where President Yar’Adua “expressed his displeasure with Shell for its reluctance to make gas available for electricity generation in the country,” I wrote on the challenge of the power sector which remains till date. But we should also be fair to the IOCs.

While the Dangote Refinery may be able to count on the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) for some of its crude requirement, they would need to source the remaining from IOCs and other independent producers operating in Nigeria. Given all the ‘forward and backward’ sales agreements that have been entered into by the NNPCL on behalf of the debt-ridden federal government in recent years, I don’t see where they can get the 650,000 barrels per day that Dangote Refinery needs, even if they want to. And for the IOCs, with my little knowledge of the industry, most of their Special Purchase Agreements (SPAs) are long-term deals. That, of course, is not to say that they may not be working for the refinery to fail.  “Unfortunately, they (IOCs) are either unwilling to sell to us or demand predatory prices. Since refining is a low margin business, the additional premium they put on the crude we buy could easily tilt the economics into loss making territory,” according to an official of the company with whom I spoke yesterday. But the bigger challenge for Dangote Refinery is in the diesel market, principally due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine.

Apparently in frustration, Dangote has been repeating a conventional wisdom he probably wished had come much earlier. In May last year, at the invitation of its Chief Upstream Operating Officer, Mr Bala Wunti, I was in Lagos to speak at the Annual Value Assurance Review (AVAR) of the NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS). Dangote, who was keynote speaker at the forum, shared some of the challenges he faced while trying to build his refinery. He was compelled to construct his own port at Lekki, had to erect over 200 kilometres of gas pipelines across different projects, built his own power plants, bought his own cranes and mined his own granite etc. But the most interesting aspect of Dangote’s presentation was the anecdote he has rehashed in recent media interviews.

During the 2019 Ramadan, according to Dangote, he was invited to Mecca by the current Saudi Arabia Minister of Investment, Dr Khalid A. Al-Falih, to break fast together. A former CEO of the Saudi Arabian oil company (Saudi Aramco) who later became the chairman of its board of directors before his elevation to cabinet position, Al-Falih was at that period the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources in Saudi Arabia. “Aliko, I heard that you’re planning to build a refinery, what capacity?” Al-Falih reportedly asked him. “I said 650,000. He kept quiet for a while and then said, ‘You know, just about 120 kilometres from Mecca, we are building one and I think I would like you to go and have a look. We, in Saudi Aramco, are facing a lot of challenges and, we are proceeding with it, but my advice to you is not to do it because normally, refineries are built by major oil corporations or sovereign countries’.” To this, Dangote said he replied: “Your Excellency, unfortunately, we have already started. So, I am not looking for advice.”

I am sure Dangote would wish he had met Al-Falih while still conceiving the idea of building a mega refinery in Nigeria. He would have weighed his options. Now that he is in the middle of the ocean, the choice before him is either to swim or sink. The pertinent question is, should Dangote Refinery be seeking special dispensation from the federal government? This is quite tricky if we must create a level-playing field but I am also aware that some countries have imposed domestic crude supply obligation to support local refining. In 2008, for instance, Argentina implemented export restrictions on crude oil to ensure sufficient supply for domestic consumption. Indonesia, once a significant exporter of crude oil, similarly imposed export restrictions in 2011 to prioritize domestic supply and support its refining industry.

But the real challenge is whether Nigeria even has the capacity to do that, assuming the authorities want to. With the extraordinary amount in ‘cost recovery’ to cover up for the ‘subsidy is gone’ presidential proclamation, the industrial scale oil theft by sundry criminal cartels that ensures we cannot even meet OPEC quota, and the lack of investment in the sector that has brought oil production down while many IOCs exit, the NNPCL is challenged on several fronts. But with a 20 percent stake in Dangote Refinery, authorities in the sector should sit down with the company to resolve whatever the challenges are.

Last week, Dangote was in the media for what became a famous quote: “Import dependence is equivalent to importing poverty and exporting jobs. No power, no growth, no prosperity. Similarly, no affordable financing, no growth, no prosperity. There is no industrialization without protection. Ignoring these facts is what gives rise to insecurity, banditry, kidnapping and abject poverty.” But when I spoke to him on Monday, he said the area highlighted in the media was the preface to his presentation last Tuesday at the 2024 Nigeria Manufacturers’ Summit in Abuja. He sent me the entire speech, which I consider quite revealing.

In the presentation, Dangote spoke to the challenge of manufacturing and industrialisation in Nigeria. “Post independence and indeed until the late 1980’s we had a thriving and consistently growing and increasingly diversifying manufacturing industry. Our industrialization policies were well thought out and diligently implemented,” Dangote said while reeling out the various industries in the country at the time and the value chains created. “Even in the Petroleum Industry, the policy of value addition to local raw materials was actively pursued during this period. In fact, the main thrust of Nigeria’s Third National Development Plan 1975-80 was the elimination of fuel scarcity. The first crude oil refinery was established in Port Harcourt in 1965, followed by Warri in 1978 and Kaduna in 1980. A second refinery was commissioned in Port Harcourt in 1989. Since then, no further capacity has been added. On the contrary all the three plants were allowed to steadily decline, forcing the country to resort to embarrassing import dependency.”

Apart from a focus on local value addition, “the earlier industrial policies also encouraged and supported local entrepreneurs to go into manufacturing leading to the emergence of our trail blazers in the sector such as the Odutolas, the Adebowales, the Adedoyins, the Aminu Dantatas, the Isyaka Rabius, the Chin Okekes, Razak Okoyas, the Onafowokans of Ladgroup and others,” Dangote argued. The landscape today, of course, is different as Dangote listed Steyr in Bauchi, Leyland in lbadan, Anamco in Enugu, Fiat in Kano, Volkswagen in Lagos, Peugeot in Kaduna, Osogbo, Delta, Jos & Katsina steel mills, Jebba paper mill, etc. as some of the joint venture businesses that have “since joined the graveyard of dead manufacturing concerns.”

Claiming to be aware “that the Bretton Woods Institutions have confused some of our economists about the word ‘protection’ to the extent that some of them think it is a blasphemy word that should not be uttered in good company”, Dangote then posed the question: “But how did China, Korea, India and several other Asian countries emerge as strong economies and a threat to the existing world economic order?”

To Dangote, the way forward is to encourage manufacturing through backward integration, citing his own example. “In 2023, Dangote Cement alone paid more taxes into the coffers of the government than the entire banking industry,” he said before making what appears like a response to his critics. “It is also often suggested that protecting your industries leads to monopoly! Again, this is false. You create the environment for monopoly when new investors are not willing or not allowed to invest in the industry. In asking for protection, I am NOT asking the government to prevent others from investing in the sector or industry. Quite the opposite, I am recommending that government policy should support and protect existing industries so that others will know that their investment will also be protected.”

I am sure that some of his competitors would counter that argument. But whatever anybody may feel about Dangote, the issues surrounding the refinery are beyond his person. These are issues that relate to the fundamentals of our economy with serious national security implications. The sheer magnitude of the facility and the expected trickle-down effect in terms of job creation cannot be downplayed. With an integrated power plant within the refinery which has a capacity of 435mw, exceeding the total power requirement of Ibadan Distribution Company (Disco), the Dangote Refinery remains the single most significant piece of infrastructure development Nigeria has witnessed in recent years. It must not be allowed to fail!

 • You can follow me on my X, (formerly Twitter) handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com   

The Community Court of Justice, ECOWAS, On July 10, 2024, ruled that the Federal Republic of Nigeria violated the human rights of Obianuju Catherine Udeh and two others. The Court found Nigeria in breach of Articles 1, 4, 6, 9, 10, and 11 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, specifically pertaining to the right to life, security of person, freedom of expression, assembly and association, prohibition of torture, duty of the state to investigate, and the right to effective remedy.

The Applicants, Obianuju Catherine Udeh, Perpetual Kamsi and Dabiraoluwa Adeyinka alleged that these violations have occurred during the peaceful protests at the Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos State on October 20 and 21, 2020.

Justice Koroma Mohamed Sengu, the Judge Rapporteur, who delivered the judgment said that the Court dismissed the allegation that the right to life as guaranteed under Article 4 of the ACPHR is violated. However, he said that the Respondent must pay each Applicant Two Million Naira as compensation for violations of their security of person, prohibition of torture and cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment, rights to freedom of expression, assembly, and association, duty to investigate human rights violations, and right to effective remedy.

Additionally, the Respondent must adhere to its obligations under the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, investigate and prosecute its agents responsible for these violations, and report to the Court within six months on the measures taken to implement this judgment.

The Applicants alleged that during the peaceful protests against the SARS Unit of the Nigerian Police Force at Lekki Toll Gate, Lagos State, on October 20 and 21, 2020, the Respondent committed several human rights violations. Triggered by the alleged killing of Daniel Chibuike, the protests aimed to address police harassment and brutality. The First Applicant’s claims include that the soldiers shot protesters, resulting in deaths and injuries, which she live-streamed, subsequently receiving threatening phone calls that forced her into hiding and eventual asylum. The Second Applicant, responsible for protesters' welfare, describes how soldiers began shooting after a power cut, leading to her hospitalisation due to police tear gas. The Third Applicant recounted narrowly escaping being shot, observing the refusal of ambulance entry by soldiers, and later witnessing inadequate hospital care for victims.

She argued that she and her colleagues took over the victims' care and she faced ongoing threats and surveillance, believed to be by Respondent's agents. The Applicants sought declaratory reliefs and compensation from the Court for these violations.

The Respondent denied all claims made by the Applicants, asserting that the protesters unlawfully assembled at Lekki Toll Gate on October 20, 2020, under the guise of protesting against SARS. The Respondent also maintained that its agents followed strict rules of engagement and did not shoot or kill protesters. It argued that the First Applicant incited the crowd by playing music and using her Instagram page to stir disaffection against law enforcement, who were targeting escapee members of Boko Haram and bandits. The Respondent contended that the Second Applicant's provision of logistics and welfare support indicated her support for the violent protest. It claimed that soldiers were present to restore peace until the police arrived, denying any harm inflicted on protesters and the refusal of ambulance access. The Respondent also denied that the Third Applicant’s presence was peaceful, asserting it was meant to escalate violence. It argued that the treatment and care of the injured were managed by the Lagos State government and submits that the Applicants have not provided credible evidence to support their claims, or the reliefs sought.

In its judgment, the Court found there was no violation of the right to life as the Applicants filed their claims in vitam. However, the Court held that several articles of the ACHPR were breached by the Respondent, which occasioned fundamental breaches of human rights violation therein.

Furthermore, the Court declared that the Applicants were denied the right to an effective remedy.

The Court ordered that the Respondent make reparations to the Applicants for the violation of their fundamental human rights.

Also on the three-member panel were Honourable Justices Dupe Atoki, presiding, and Ricardo Claúdio Monteiro Gonçalves.

Wole Soyinka has been hoary since I came to the knowledge of his works and his activism many years ago. Hoariness, for me, is not a feature of age or greying hair. On the contrary, I attach a certain level of exceptional venerableness to the very figure of WS. He possesses a dateless significance for me that surpasses the depth of his literary works to encompass his many-sided contributions to the idea of the Nigerian postcolony. I dare say that Wole Soyinka’s status as a phenomenal literary person assumes an even greater depth because of his very presence and attachment to Nigeria. All great writers, from Wiliam Shakespeare to Ngugi wa Thiong’o, derive their greatness from the literary and non-literary articulation of their disaffection with their context of being. Wole Soyinka is not different. From The Swamp Dwellers in 1958 to Thus Spake Orunmila in 2011; from The Interpreters in 1965 to Chronicles from the Land of the Happiest People on Earth (2021); and from The Man Died in 1972 to Climate of Fear (2005), Soyinka’s plays, novels and essays details—in stark literary sublimity—the terrors, ambiguity and possibilities of the Nigerian postcolonial predicament. 

Nigeria provided the fecund grounds for the outflowing of the creative mind of a writer who loves his country and wants to do right by her in a mode of patriotism that the country finds combative. Writers are strange beings. They are alchemists. This is what Virginia Wolff says, “Every secret of a writer's soul, every experience of his life, every quality of his mind is written large in his works.” They possess the capacity, usually unavailable to the rest of us, to see into their own souls, the souls of the nation, and the reality of other people’s souls in travails. And then they generate a creative combustion that fires all our imagination about who we are, where we are, what our contexts are making of us, and what we in turn can transform our context into. When WS penned that most famous of his quotes, “justice is the first condition of humanity,” he was generating a philosophical space that complements his literary brilliance. Only few writers combine sublime literariness and philosophical brilliance. And that is to be expected because, as Quentin Tarantino, the American filmmaker once said, “A writer should have this little voice inside of you saying, Tell the truth.” 

But then, while writers might nudge us towards the truth, philosophers insist on unraveling its depth. We remember the conversation between Pontius Pilate and Jesus before he was crucified. When Pilate asked if Jesus was a king, he responded, among other things, that he came into the world to bear witness to the truth. Pontius Pilate then threw that philosophical question at him: What is truth? But he was too impatient to wait for an answer. The answer is however still floating and amorphous either in the philosophers’ rarefied epistemological discourses or even worse within the dissident space of social media. Indeed, rather than wrapping up the discourses on what truth means, we have become burdened again with a further conceptual complexity: post-truth! With post-truth, signaled by Donald Trump’s alacrity in denying facts, we now arrive at the diminution of objective facts in favor of sentimentalism and emotion. And writers and activists like Wole Soyinka are now found therefore in the maelstrom of social media antagonism, especially around issues of truth, nation-building, patriotism and disinformation. 

WS has noted his aversion for social media and the deep ignorance that it wears like a garland. That chaotic Gen Z space is strange to most people of my age, and should be horrific for a nonagenarian who grew up on the value of ọmọlúwàbì and respectful human relations. But what is even more abject is the level of disinformation, vitriol and banality that contend for virality. In fact, one can say that the desperation for a viral message far surpasses the desire for cogency, objectivity and even patriotism. For a writer that values truth and justice, this should indeed be a tragedy of a huge proportion especially for a state that needs the energy of its youth population for development purposes. 

Wole Soyinka is the very definition of a patriot, the type that Nigeria needs; the type that has the courage to be a dissident—to love one’s nation sufficiently to disagree with her. And in novels, after plays after essays, WS reveals that he would keep being vigilant on the rampart of nation building. Let me attempt to recreate a mapping of Soyinka’s patriotic trajectory to make a larger point. In 1967, Wole Soyinka took a dare to head to Enugu to meet with Colonel Odumegwu Ojukwu, the then military governor of the Eastern region. It was a most dangerous mission, more dangerous than holding up the Nigerian Broadcasting Corporation, Ibadan to replace the speech of Chief Ladoke Akintola who was already expecting his victory in the 1965 election. On this national scale, the stakes were much higher than what the western region could throw at him. He was so adamant in his belief that Nigeria should not go to war that he thought meeting with the military governor could still serve as a last-ditch act. He was not afraid of being branded a felon for the love of country. This, in any context, translates into the willingness to die for one’s country through a path that challenges that country to do better.     

Soyinka’s entire literary credentials have been dedicated to the task of salvaging the Nigerian state and its proclivity for failures and destructiveness. WS once characterized himself as an “Afro-realist”: “I’m an Afro-realist. I take what comes, and I do my best to affect what is unacceptable in society.” This is the whole essence of his literary realism—directly representing Nigeria and the experiences of her citizens and leadership. And from the 1960s when he took up political activism, it would seem that WS would prefer to actively intervene in his own literary representation of Nigeria’s postcolonial predicaments by forcing truth into the open. It was not just enough to speak truth to power through literary characters and characterizations. 

Now in the age of the internet and social media, Nigeria’s woes have become drowned by the vociferous cacophonies of those—government and citizens, detractors and patriots—who deploy information to misinform and disinform. No wonder Wole Soyinka has become a subject matter of social media hazing—he now has to fight his patriotic battles at many fronts against a government that he keeps challenging to do better and a horde of uncouth and unteachable youths who do not even understand what it means to be willing to die for one’s country. What would a nonagenarian activist be thinking at this late in his years? What reminiscences, nostalgia, painful memories and latent possibilities collide in his mind? Are there regrets lurking somewhere about what could have been done that were not because of the single-minded attachment to Nigeria’s future? 

Let me end this piece with a recollection and a recommendation. When the late Prof. Ojetunji Aboyade was to be buried, Wole Soyinka was there. And he lamented about Nigeria and her heroes: “Nigeria kills us slowly; one by one, but surely. If Oje had given less of himself to a thankless nation, he would he alive today.” The irony of that lamentation is that Nigeria is still killing her heroes, like Wole Soyinka slowly and surely, and yet—like Ojetunji Aboyade—Wole Soyinka has refused to give less of himself. Our own venerated WS has commenced his earthly home run, and he does not need an elaborate posthumous pretenses and false affectation. All he wants would be to begin to see some significant and genuine move towards freedom and good governance. And the starting point would be to reflect on the coincidence between truth, information and governance in Nigeria. Bad governance is founded on untruth and political expediencies that sacrifices the national interest to the whims of a selected few. Good governance commences from a genuine commitment to objective facts—first, the fact of where we are and how we have missed it; second, facts about our own complicity in our own underdevelopment; third, facts about what needed to be done, sacrifices to be made, structures to be built and pulled down, values to be erected. One immediately sees the correlation between democratic governance, the press as the fourth estate of the realm and the commitment to human right which Wole Soyinka is passionate about. Nigeria needs to rethink its freedom of information and of the press as the sine qua non to a robust public/national space of free discourses and discussion about the future of a country that will not be allowed to degenerate into a simulacra of social media chaos and disinformation. 

For relentlessly believing that a better Nigeria is possible, Wole Soyinka at 90 deserves the benefit of a commitment to the fulfilment of that expectation of a better Nigeria. And he deserves a turn in that direction while he is still fighting for it.    

We have not heard the last of the ongoing protests in Kenya against a new finance law enacted by the country’s legislature. The youths opposed the law because it will overtax the already impoverished Kenyans who are enduring high inflation and general economic distress. The president was very heady and even threatened to arrest the protesting youths. In the crackdown, the police shot dead more than 9 protesters. The youths became irate and destroyed property worth millions of dollars. The alarmed president has sued for peace, discarded the finance law, cut down presidential budgetary allocations, including those of the office of the first lady, and abolishing about 47 agencies to cut costs. But the youths are not appeased. They have asked the president to resign. The frightened and chastened president have been on twitter space to win hearts and minds. Protest continues and the Kenyan economy worsens with a negative rating because of its fiscal crisis and uncertainties.

But the crisis was unavoidable. The president did not need to be as mulish as he was. The dogmatism was unnecessary. Many put it to the pressure from the international financial institutions that have made Kenya a poster child of market-oriented reforms. It is true that Kenya suffers much fiscal instability and would need a lot of extra revenue to cope with dwindling revenue. But it needs not be reckless and insensitive in pushing through the bill. Kenya like Nigeria and the rest of the developing world are constantly barraged to implement market-oriented policies like removal of subsidies on essential products that further diminish the wellbeing of their already impoverished population. Like in the 1980s when trade deficit and fiscal instability pushed these countries to swallow the entire Structural Adjustment Programme of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank without adjusting them to the realities of their countries, today’s leaders in the distressed south are proceeding in error in focusing on tax and subsidy removal without considering the abysmal levels of human development and welfare in their countries.

Nigeria could have been in the same social turmoil as Kenya but for some different social dynamics. On social media, Nigerian youth have been praising and admiring Kenyans for their doggedness and effectiveness in forcing down the overconfident president and are wishing for another opportunity to prove their mettle. Arguably, Nigerians are suffering as much if not more than Kenyans. Nigerians could re-enact Kenya if socioeconomic realities remain this way and leaders fail to rise to responsible leadership. Nigerian leaders need to pay attention to the crisis in Kenya and learn how to head off such massive protests in Nigeria. To do so, they need to learn the lessons in the crisis. What are the lessons in the Kenyan crisis? I think about four such lessons.

Government is over, Governance has come:

The first lesson to learn from Kenya is that we have come to the end of government. We are now in the era of governance. That sounds like nonsensical. How can government be over when we are daily confronted with the intrusion of the behemoth? What is the difference between government and governance? But truly government is over. We are now in the era of governance. The difference may be subtle, but it is consequential. Government means hierarchy, force, and control. Governance means network, collaboration, and persuasion. The end of government is tied to the End of Power, as Moses Naim puts it in his book by the same title. According to the foreign policy expert, globalization and technological innovation have unsettled the traditional domination of power. From government house to boardroom to churches, power is no longer what it used to be. We are now in the state of powerlessness where political potentates can no longer how their ways. ‘Powerlessness’ in the sense of the end of the Weberian concept of state as the Leviathan who can do and undo, foists upon political authorities the imperative to engage humbly and constructively with citizens. To borrow, Amartya Sen’s phrase, states should be argumentative, not authoritarian, or even authoritative. Political authorities must come down from their high horses, engage citizens and compete for their hearts and minds.

The end of power goes with what Thomas Friedman in his book, The World is Flat, calls flatness. The flat world is a world where distance and disadvantages of economic divergences have been destroyed through information technology and social media such that everyone is empowered to plug and play. A necessary corollary to digital empowerment is that angry youths are superempowered to build mass movements to express their anger more effectively. The social media has enabled the mobilization of anger and made its expression damaging. States are now more vulnerable to social expression of discontent than before. End SAR and now Kenya Spring speak about the changed landscape of political power. You cannot disregard the voice of angry citizens because you are government. You must respond quick and smart otherwise you will lose credibility and risk global political and economic downgrades. Political regimes are now vulnerable to social sentiments and uncertainties. As Friedman notes in the earlier book, The Lexus and Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, nations are now hooked on a straitjacket. In the past, killing 100 protesters will not undermine the political power of an African dictator. He will shrug it off and the news will not make it to any CNN. Today, killing two protesters will be a recurring news on CNN and BBC and will receive thousands of comments on social media platforms. In days the behemoth will quiver. The interconnectedness of the world and international financial institutions’ responsivity to viral narratives make today’s governments vulnerable to social strife.

The balance of power has largely tilted away from governments and towards citizens and non-governmental groups. The reality is that governments have become weaker as citizens and groups have gained power relative to government because of the disruptions of technology and social media. We now live with the reality that governments across the world find it difficult to overcome terrorists, even the most rudimentary like Boko Haram, because of the growing asymmetricity of conflicts. This is more so for African governments further assailed by growing illegitimacy. It is highly pretentious for these governments to act as if they are all-powerful. It is patently foolish for them to implement harsh and disfavoured reform policies in their countries without striving for stronger coalition with civic leaders. The era of strong men and strong governments of the SAP reforms are no longer with us. We are in an era of governance, not government, where smart power through credible and smart communication is replacing hard power. Ruto would have done better if he engaged in twitter spaces with his citizens as he is doing now before taking the bill to parliament. The result would have been different if he had paused and engaged with twitter spaces with the youths of Kenya when the bill elicited massive protests. That singular gesture would have prevented the current carnage and portents of fiscal collapse.

Beware of Ideology Masked as Economics:

President Ruto pushed the finance bill because he was told Kenya had no alternative than to push through fiscal severity despite the resentment and suffering of the people. It is called in the industry of policy reform ‘shock therapy’. It sounds familiar. In the days of East Europe’s transition to western oriented market economy there was a lot of talks about shock therapy and what some have called the ‘dictatorship of no alternative’. It was Margreth Thatcher, another strong leader who arguably damaged the economic fortunes of his country through a mindless pro-market fundamentalism that resulted in destruction of the social protection system of the Post-war era, who minted the phrase “There is No Alternative (TINA)’. But there is always an alternative as Professor Aluko reminded General Babangida in the days of SAP debate.

African leaders need a crash course on managing economic development in the age of deceptive economic ideology. They need to wise up as Asian leaders who pragmatically steered their economies outside the straitjacket of the American Business Model, alias ‘Washington Consensus’. IMF and the World Bank did not advise Ruto to begin his quest for fiscal stability by first cutting down on costs of government so as to generate public trust before cutting through livelihood. They did not remind him that the Office of the First Lady is actually dispensable in the face of worsening fiscal crisis. By raising tax and eliminating critical subsidies are always the low-hanging fruits.

We cannot make light the fiscal crisis that countries across are going through. The crisis requires drastic and difficult actions. But beyond ideology, the first to fall should not social welfare. It should be the last and only after the government have eliminated the waste that is associated with elitism and patrimonial politics. We can solve the crisis through a more effective strategy that does not involve the destructive dynamics of market fundamentalism. East Asian economies succeeded not because they embraced the whole doctrine of free market. They succeeded because they avoided ideology and embraced pragmatism. China has a long history of false steps, even up to the period of Mao Zedong and the cultural revolution. The Great Leap Forward set China back, especially with the collectivization of agriculture, resulting in mass death and failed industrialization. Deng Xiaoping changed the game. He initiated a gradual, programmatic and sensible reform that started with returning the land to dispossessed peasants with guaranteed tenure to encourage irrigation, higher seedlings and extension services. Xiaoping tracked the benefit of increased productivity in agriculture into gradual industrialization. At a point he started to open China to western technology and capital, but in a controlled and strategic manner using special economic zones.

China abhorred the rigid ideologies of communism and the laisse faire theory of neoliberalism and embraced pragmatism. This approach is exemplified by the famous saying of Deng Xiaoping that it does not matter whether my cat is red or white if it catches rat.   China followed the example of Japan and South Korea where pragmatic leaders like General Park wisely implemented transformative reform of agriculture and deliberate but systematic protection and nurturing of infant industry to transition their countries to industrial economies. In these countries, pragmatic leaders enhanced efficiency not by surrendering to the free trade, but rather using export discipline to improve productivity. The secret of the success of the East Asian countries is the pragmatic insight that what will ensure industrialization is to protect and nurture infant industry through export discipline. Export promotion worked where import substitution failed in Africa.

China and the rest recognized the pitfall of crony capitalism. When they raise tariff to protect infant industries, they forced those industries to perform according to export benchmarks. Those who failed lost the fiscal and policy support. By so doing they chose winners and losses, not through political patronage, but through the discipline of international trade. This is the model of a development state; a government, as Stephen Cohen and J Bradford DeLong in their book, Concrete Economics: The Hamilton Approach to Economic Growth and Policy, “that signalled the direction, cleared the way, set up the path, and – when needed- provided the means”.

Nigerian, nay African, leaders need to embrace pragmatism not fundamentalism in economic policymaking. The plumbline should be whether the policies would not undermine household income and further destroy the long-term productivity of the economy by eroding the human and social capital necessary for transformative economic development. The lesson from Kenya is that it pays more to listen to the people than to the bureaucrats in Washington institutions with no skins in the game of economic survival in Africa.

At the close of trading on June 9, 2024, Access Holdings’ share price stood at N19.35, which is 2% lower than the N19.75 price set for the bank’s ongoing rights issue. 

On July 8, the opening day of the rights issue, the share price opened at N19.20, then appreciated by 2% to close at N19.60. However, today, July 9, Access Bank declined by N0.25 to close at N19.35. 

The fluctuations in Access Holdings’ share price raised significant concerns among shareholders, who voiced their apprehensions during the group’s “Facts Behind the Issue” presentation at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). 

Why it is an anomaly: Typically, in share offering programs, whether through a rights issue or a public offering, the offer price is set at a discount to the market price to attract investors. 

In a rights issue, the discount on the issued shares is generally more substantial than in a public offering. For instance, Fidelity Bank priced its rights issue shares at N9.25, while its public offering shares were priced at N9.75.  

Companies typically offer a larger discount on rights issues because they are exclusively available to existing shareholders, making the discount an additional incentive for these shareholders. 

Reasons for the price disparity  

In Access Holdings’ case, the Chairman of the Group, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, tried to explain the reason behind the departure from the norm, putting forward the strong earnings profile of the bank.   

Aig-Imoukhuede noted, “There are certain things I look at when investing in a business or considering an investment. When evaluating a business, if the business’s annual earnings run rate matches the amount I invested, I consider it a strong indicator.”  

“For example, analyzing Access Bank’s earnings profile, even without accounting for currency devaluation profits, shows significant earnings potential. If devaluation occurs, the earnings forecast could double or triple.” 

“Currently, the analysis shows a potential earnings value of about 17 naira per share, with a trading price of around 19.75 naira per share. This is not a bank that needs further reinvestment to make that money, meaning it won’t seek additional capital that could dilute its earnings.”  

He then noted that the recent rights issue was essential to reward long-term investors who have supported the bank through difficult times, as the bank is poised to generate significant profits in the future.  

Recall that in FY 2023, Access Holdings Plc hit earnings per share of about N17.23, based on its net income of N619.3 billion. The group’s earnings per share represent a 288% increase from the N4.44 earnings per share posted in 2022.  

Using the offer price of N19.75, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 1.15 for the issued share is notably lower compared to its industry peers.  

For instance, FBNH shares have a P/E ratio of 2.62, GTCO shares are at 2.36, UBA shares stand at 1.32, and Zenith Bank shares are at 1.74.

This disparity suggests that Access Bank shares trading in the market with a 1.12 P/E ratio may be significantly undervalued. 

[Nairametrics]

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general elections, Peter Obi has urged politicians to spend the money with them on uplifting the standard of living of the people.

He insisted that government funds should not be used for personal endeavours, adding that they belong to the people.

Obi spoke on Monday at the Grimard School of Nursing and Midwifery, Ayingba, Dekina Local Government Area of Kogi State.

According to him, “We politicians should realise that the money in our care does not belong to us but to the people and we should spend it to uplift their standard of living.

“The money is not our own, it belongs to the people, we are under obligation to spend it on the people.”

Earlier, the Catholic Bishop of Idah Diocese, Anthony Adaji, eulogised Obi’s passion for education as exemplified in the performance of schools when he was the governor of Anambra State.

“His investment in education was legendary and that reflected in the performance of students throughout his tenure as the governor,” Adaji said.

Obi also visited Ankpa and Olamaboro local government areas where he inaugurated two boreholes to serve the communities.

[NaijaNews]