Prof Tahir Mamman,

The Honourable Minister of Education,

Federal Republic of Nigeria

Dear sir,

Congratulations on the recently concluded policy meeting that your office held with the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) and other higher education stakeholders. I commend your ongoing efforts to improve our educational systems.

With the hope that this letter will be graciously received by you, I am writing to address a pressing concern arising from one of the policy decisions announced at the meeting: the implementation of the 18-year age limit for higher education admission. 

As an education researcher and policy advocate with experience specifically in Nigerian higher education, I have observed the public discourse surrounding this decision. Rather than merely expressing dissent through social media, I thought it would be more constructive to present my concerns directly to you on behalf of the Nigerian people. In this letter, I outline three reasons why this policy will not eventually be in the best interest of the nation and its youth.

• Exacerbating inaccessibility to higher education

Honourable minister, in 2018, the World Bank estimated Nigeria’s higher education enrollment rate at about 11.7%. Recent data from various sources has estimated it between 12 percent and 16.5 percent. That is, only about six to eight of every 50 eligible Nigerian youths get to attend tertiary institutions due to several reasons including socioeconomic and cultural factors. A crucial factor important to the conversation is the difficulty of the admission process worsened by the limited number of university admission slots. On average, students, including those deemed “academically bright” students struggle to get into the university on the first attempt. This is not surprising seeing that Nigeria has only about 274 universities (both public and private) for about 27 million eligible university-age youths. 

In a country with a rapidly increasing youthful population, projected to reach about 127 million by 2050, it is already really precarious to limit young people’s access to education. It is even worse when those with limited chances are productively unengaged for 2-3 years of their young adult life, considering the average high school graduation rate is between 15 and 17. The current economy is not designed to productively engage high school leavers. Unlike in the 1980s and 1990s, there are now extremely limited organizations providing quality work or internship opportunities for high school leavers. This is not surprising, given that university graduates even struggle with employment opportunities, as you well know, sir. 

Given these challenges, do we want to add another obstacle for the Nigerian youths seeking tertiary education? In a country where the average high school graduate typically faces a 1 to 2-year wait for higher education enrollment, do we want to extend the wait?

• Limiting the capacity of Nigerian human capital

Honourable Minister, I would like to use my story as a case study to illustrate this point.  I was fortunate enough to start my university education before my 17th birthday. It is, however, important to mention that I had to “stay at home” for over a year because I was less than 16 when I graduated; and aside from being considered underage, I didn’t even secure university admission despite having 3As, 3Bs, and 3Cs in WAEC and 259 in my UTME in 2008. But I digress.

I had known I wanted a career in academia. Despite starting my undergraduate degree relatively early, I wasn’t going to finish my Master’s Degree (the minimum requirement for an academic position) until I was over 25. Yes, between ASUU and local university strikes during my undergraduate years, the clumsy NYSC calendar, and further strikes during my Master’s Degree, it eventually took me 9 years to officially qualify to even start my career. By that time, my peers who left Nigeria immediately after our 4-turned-5.5-year undergraduate program were already wrapping up their Ph.D.s abroad. Note that I began my MSc in the next admission year immediately after completing my NYSC.

Prof Tahir Mamman

Sir, I am certain you are well aware of our nation’s unique educational challenges, which are unlikely to be resolved completely anytime soon. It therefore becomes imperative to give our people a good head start to mitigate the impact of these challenges on our ability to cultivate talent for the nation.

With our Human Development Index recently pegged at 0.548 by the UNDP Human Development Report (2023/2024), ranking us as 161st of 193 countries, I believe you will agree that we cannot afford the long-term implications of this policy.

• Disproportionate Effect on Women and Girls’ Education in Nigeria.

The average Nigerian girl already faces unique challenges in accessing quality education at all levels, with higher education being the most difficult for females to access. From social and economic barriers like poverty and teenage pregnancy to cultural issues such as prioritizing marriage over education for girls and growing concerns about their safety, women and girls are often placed at the lower rung of the already limited educational opportunities available in the country. 

Sir, based on your knowledge and experience as an educator, do you think staying at home for 1-3 years (considering many students graduate high school between 15-17 years old) would aggravate or alleviate these issues? If a teenage girl has to stay at home for 2 years without being intellectually /productively engaged, do you think she stands a higher or lower chance of experiencing teenage pregnancy, for example? Answering such questions easily highlights the impact of this policy on the advancement of women’s and girl’s education, which the nation is striving to improve.

Beyond access to education, Nigerian women still face gender-specific issues in their careers, often progressing more slowly than their male counterparts due to the additional roles they typically undertake at certain life stages. For instance, the ongoing World Bank Africa Fellowship Program application, which encourages women to apply, requires them to be well advanced or done with their PhDs and be under 32 years old. Even, without the 18-year-old university admission limit, the number of Nigerian women eligible for this application is significantly smaller compared to the true potential of the Nigerian woman.

In conclusion, Honourable Minister, I believe that when you and your team crucially consider these arguments and many others being raised in public discourses, you will agree that this policy will only do more harm than good for the nation and its people. I strongly believe could never be your intentional seeing your record as a distinguished educator yourself. On behalf of Nigerian youths, I appeal that the policy be rescinded as quickly as possible. Thank you for your selfless public service to our dear nation.

Yours sincerely,

Oluwatoyin Ajilore-Chukwuemeka

Education researcher and concerned Nigerian.

Oluwatoyin is a Doctoral Researcher in STEM Education, Social Impact Leader and Education Policy Advocate.  She writes from Nigeria and the United States. She can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or on LinkedIn here.

The Labour Party says Kenneth Okonkwo’s attack on Peter Obi, its 2023 presidential candidate, was “unfortunate and attention-seeking”.

On Sunday, Okonkwo, a chieftain of the LP, said he no longer has confidence in the ability of Obi to build a party that can win elections.

He said Obi has “proved that even if the people vote for him, he does not have what it takes to secure the mandate”.

The LP chieftain said the recent happenings in the party have “inspired” him to make “a determination to chart a new course for my political journey”.

In June, Okonkwo described the opposition party as “a secret society led by a group of clowns,” adding that he could not rule out leaving the party.

Okonkwo also said his comments have “nothing to do with any desire to join the APC or the PDP,” adding that he will always join Nigerians in the aspirations for a better country.

However, Obiora Ifoh, the national publicity secretary of the LP, in a statement, said Okonkwo’s resignation from the party did not come as a surprise.

Ifoh said the party viewed Okonkwo’s criticism of Obi as unfortunate and attention-seeking.

“Kenneth Okonkwo’s resignation from the Labour Party didn’t come to us as a surprise. We also think that his attack on the party’s leader, Peter Obi, is rather unfortunate,” the statement reads.

“However, we will continue not to dignify him with any response, as we understand that his attention-craving attitude knows no bounds.

“Recently, a former director-general of the party’s presidential campaign organisation resigned and rejoined the APC.

“Only last week, an ex-deputy director-general of the presidential campaign organisation also resigned and rejoined the APC.

“Today, it is the turn of Mr. Okonkwo, a former member of APC, who smuggled himself into the presidential campaign, and his destination is already known to us.

“Needless to say that Nigeria is not in want of political jesters and jobbers whose stomach are their gods. The Labour Party is not perturbed by his decision to move on, and in fact, we wish him well in his future endeavours, whether in acting, law practice, politics, or otherwise.

“We also wish to note here that the party is aware of a few other persons who are planted as moles, who are presently instigating crises within the party, and who have unsuccessfully attempted to hijack the party for the use of their paymasters.

“We urge them to act fast and do the needful before they are exposed and fumigated out of the party.”

The LP spokesperson said the party remains committed to supporting Obi as its 2027 presidential candidate.

“Coordinated attacks from some quarters will not in any way diminish the trust Nigerians, particularly the obedients and youths in Nigeria, have in him,” Ifoh said.

“We know that with him, a new Nigeria will be possible. Nigerians spoke loudly in 2023, and they will speak even louder come 2027.”

In the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, Okonkwo left the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for LP.

He was later appointed as one of the spokespersons of the LP presidential campaign council.

[TheCable]

Mohammed Bello Adoke, a former attorney-general of the federation (AGF), says the death of Ifeanyi Ubah, the senator representing Anambra south, is a loss for the country.

Ubah, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Capital Oil and Gas Industries Limited, died in London, United Kingdom (UK), on Friday.

In a statement on Sunday, Adoke described Ubah as someone “who prioritised the welfare and economic prosperity of his people in particular and Nigerians in general”.

“His contributions on the floor of the senate, where he served two terms (from 2019 when he was first elected and re-elected in 2023) bear glowing testimony to his belief in the Nigerian project and unwavering commitment and resolve to uplift the masses of this great country from the shackles of poverty, hunger, and disease,” the statement reads.

“Senator Ubah was ebullient and full of life. The news of his demise was therefore a rude shock to Nigerians and has understandably evoked a deep sense of loss from those who had the good fortune of working and interacting closely with him.

“I was introduced to senator Ubah by Chief Gabriel Chukwuma (A.K.A. Gabros), another fine gentleman, sports enthusiast, and businessman of repute. The friendship quickly blossomed to a level that our families became quite close.

“I recall during my travails in exile, he visited me severally. On such visits, he would pray with me and counsel me on the need to have faith in God and eschew bitterness towards my traducers and that at God’s appointed time the travails would end as he was convinced that I was just a victim of political machinations.

“He openly identified with me and provided support at a time I was considered a pariah even by those I regarded as friends, but for reasons of self-preservation and determination to remain in the good books of the political leadership of the country, they considered it expedient to disassociate themselves from me.

“I wish to place on record that in all my official and personal interactions with Senator Ubah, I found him to be passionate about the economic empowerment of his people and the development of our dear country.

“He demonstrated this commitment through his numerous business ventures, especially in the oil and gas sector, undertaking developmental projects in his constituency, and empowering the people.

“It is therefore not surprising that his people kept electing him overwhelmingly to the senate even when he contested on the ticket of a fringe political party such as the Young Progressives Party (YPP) from where he recently decamped to the APC.”

Adoke added that despite Ubah’s enormous wealth and political attainment, “he remained calm, humble, and unassuming.”.

“These are rare qualities that are lacking amongst our political elites today. Nigeria has indeed lost an outstanding advocate for social justice and economic empowerment,” he said.

“I, therefore, join his family, the good people of Anambra south senatorial district, and millions of his well-wishers around the world in praying to the Almighty God for the repose of his gentle soul.”

[TheCable]

Actor Damola Olatunji has highlighted the prevalence of fake love and unhealthy competition in the movie industry.

In a revealing interview on Biola Bayo’s show, “Talk to B,” he disclosed that most attacks on celebrities come from within the industry, with colleagues using anonymous accounts to troll and undermine each other.

Olatunji expressed concerns about the lack of genuine love and support among actors, who often pretend to care for one another while secretly fueling negativity.

He advised aspiring actors to develop a “shock absorber” to navigate the industry’s harsh realities.

He said: “If you are coming into the space of the entertainment industry, you need to have what is called a shock absorber.

“In an industry where there is no true love, where we don’t truly love each other, fine, we do parties, we do all these things, we gather together to celebrate, and we smile and laugh at each other, but deep down, we don’t love each other.

“The pages that will troll you are faceless; I think they are from the industry. Why do we have this unhealthy competition? Why do you think if I bring this person down, I will rise? So, I took my time to do the analysis, and I can see that, okay, most of these attacks come from within, come from the industry”.

The actor emphasised his commitment to focusing on his own journey, refusing to engage in competition or bring others down to elevate himself.

“One thing I don’t do is I don’t compete with anybody. I try as much as possible to run my race at my own pace”, he added.

[TheNation]

•DSS ex-Director Ejiofor speaks on the differences between the 2012 (peaceful), 2020 (violent) and looming 2024 protest

Looming protest, if it goes ahead between Thursday,August 1 and Saturday, August 10, will be the third major nationwide protest in more than one decade. There were 2012 and 2020 protests, and now 2024 uncertain protest. The 2012 protest, tagged Occupy Nigeria, began on Monday, January 2 of that year in response to then-fuel subsidy removal by the Federal Government of President Goodluck Jonathan on Sunday, January 1. Protest took place across the country, including in the cities of Kano, Surulere, Ojota (part of metropolitan Lagos ), Abuja, Minna, and at the Nigerian High Commission in London.

The protest was characterised by civil disobedience, civil resistance, strike actions, demonstrations and online activism. The use of social media services such as Twitter and Facebook was a prominent feature of the protest. President Bola Tinubu was said to have taken part in the protest at that time. The 2020 protest was a decentralised social movement against police brutality in Nigeria that mainly occurred in 2020.

The movement’s slogan called for the disbandment of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a notorious unit of the Nigeria Police known for its long record of abuse against citizens. The protest originated from a Twitter campaign in 2017, using the hashtag #EndSARS to demand the unit’s disbandment by the Federal Government. The movement experienced resurgence in October 2020 following further revelations of the unit’s abuses, leading to mass demonstrations across major cities in Nigeria, and widespread outrage on social media platforms. The hashtag #EndSARS accumulated over 28 million tweets on Twitter alone. Notably, the movement was predominantly led by young Nigerians and expanded to include demands for good governance and accountability amid hardship in the country.

The protest took a violent turn following alleged attacks on protesters by security forces and suspected thugs launching attacks on people and properties. At Lekki toll gate, Lagos, one of the sites where security forces allegedly attacked peaceful protesters, it was reported that armed men of the Nigerian Army arrived and opened fire, thereby resulting in a disputed number of deaths. A clip of the shooting videoed by a Nigerian youth, DJ Switch, trended on the Internet purportedly showing how live round of bullets were being shot at innocent protesters who crouched on the ground, holding hands together and singing the national anthem. There were also reports that at least 50 other people were injured.

However, Lagos State government reported that the shooting resulted in about 25 injured and only two dead. There is heightened fear that the looming protest may go the way of the 2020 protest that turned violent. Mike Ejiofor, a retired Director of the Department of State Service (DSS), speaks on the 2012 and 2020 protests as well as the looming nationwide protest. Ejiofor spoke on a television programme. Excerpts:

Different

The protest of 2012 was different from the 2020 protest. And the organizers of each of the protests were different. President Tinubu even admitted that he has been protesting. The 2020 protest was majorly organized by youths. And if you recall, at the beginning of that protest, they were peaceful until it was hijacked by other interest groups. And this may not have come from government. (But) some people see this government as the best government whatsoever because of their personal interest and not because of national interest. So anything that can jolt the smooth running of the government, they will also try to protect the interest of government.

That is why we are afraid that this protest might be hijacked. Some people might say this APC government is not doing well, but others will say it is the best government we ever had. So we have conflicting interests. That is why it is necessary for now, because of enormous security

challenges, we should not compound the situation by engaging in protest. On the other side, the DSS has said they have identified the sponsors and sources of funding. I am not in service, I am out of service. They have their intelligence. They have all it takes because they brief the president. Possibly that is why the president has been consulting.

Circumstances

The circumstances of the two protests are the same. But again if you look at 2012, the protest didn’t turn violent because of the body language of the sitting president then. He allowed everything to go, and the situation was not as bad as what we have now. Now it can be exploited because people are hungrier now, people are desperate and may want to use anything to ventilate their anger. And that is why the government is saying that people can protest but it should not go violent.

If you look at the 2020 protest, it was mainly organized by the youths and that is why it turned violent and the demands why quite different from the 2012’s and that is also why it turned violent. The 2020 protest was particularly against police brutality.

You recall how it started from Delta State. And as people were talking about #EndSARS, there was maximum force used to suppress the riot after it degenerated from protest.

But in 2012, people gathered, they were there carrying out their protest peacefully, nobody worried them. If it is going to be like that now, I don’t think government will stop anyone from protesting but the fear is very high that this protest will be hijacked. The fears are there.

[Vanguard]

The proponents of violent protests are not relenting. They have fixed August 1 to August 10 as the days of rage. They are insisting that the house must be burnt down in anger. Like W. B. Yeats’ wrote in his poem, The Second Coming, “the falcon no longer hears the falconer.” In this case, the champions of violence are not willing to listen to wise counsel. There’s a loss of order and guidance as the forces of chaos and destruction no longer heed the call of reason.

To what end are many Nigerians asking? The desire to destabilise the country has always existed. It is a combination of dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs and a penchant for chaos among certain citizens who harbour resentment for the country and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The option to cut their nose to spite their face is perplexing. Just how far does their discontent extend?

There is no denying the prevailing hardship and the weight of pain Nigerians are experiencing. However, we must also acknowledge that the foundation for the current situation was laid before this government took over on May 29, 2023. Past governments have made many bad choices over the decades, which have pushed the country precariously to the cliff edge. It is beyond reason that successive governments opted to kick the dirty can down the road, leaving it for the next guy to bell the cat.

The option we had pre-2023 elections was to go for the broke. We needed a president who could pull us away from the tipping edge and who dared to apply the necessary measures, even if that would bring temporary pains. Many Nigerians rooted for President Tinubu because he fitted the bill. He is a man of courage and conviction.

He is hands-on, always focusing on the outcomes. He has an outstanding pedigree in governance. He is a proven reformer. And he is not given to pleasing the crowd. Personalities with these attributes don’t enroll in popularity contests. They would instead do what is right. And the end always justifies them.

Reforms. Bold reforms are what Nigeria needs now. This is what the Tinubu administration has embarked on. This government has taken a number of courageous decisions aimed at revamping the economy and bringing prosperity to the citizens. We cannot achieve this in a day. Seeds take time to germinate. Hunger, however, cannot be cured by mere hope of a bountiful harvest.

But hope has its essence. It can be a springboard for patience. And patience is needed for the country to reap the fruitful outcomes of the outstanding reforms of President Tinubu’s administration. Shall we then exercise restraint? Shall we pull together at this critical period and prevent those who do not mean well for the country from burning down the barn?

Minister of Works, David Umahi, has said Nigeria would have been a failed if God did not bring President Bola Tinubu at this “crucial time”.

He said this while appealing to the youths to shelve the planed protest and support infrastructure development.

Umahi, who unveiled the Federal Government’s initiative, “Operation Free Our Roads”, in Abuja at the weekend, said the president would transform the country if given more time.

The minister, while unveiling the initiative, said it was aimed at ensuring that all roads under construction were motorable and completed in due time.

“Let me use this opportunity to appeal to our youths to give Mr President Bola Tinubu more time. It would have been a failed state if God did not divinely bring the President at a very critical time like this. A lot of people did not know what challenges we had before he came on board,” he said.

Umahi urged Nigerians to be patriotic and assist the government by doing everything possible to reset the country to make it a place where no man would be oppressed.

According to him, the looming protest may be hijacked by hoodlums.

“Yes, there may be hardship, but the dawn is the darkest part of the night; we see a lot of hope and positive indices. So, let us give him more time and support him and increase our productivity, our country will be great again,” he said

Umahi said the “operation free our roads’’ initiative was part of government’s effort to put citizens first by fixing the the roads, especially in the rainy season.

“The contractors will use stone base to put and fill all the potholes in failed portions or where we have potholes, they will all be filled, both carriageways.

“Then, they will continue to maintain one carriageway for vehicles to follow while they consistently walk on one carriageway.

“We are going to put our eyes here. All controllers and all directors must be vigilant.”

Umahi also urged the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) to contribute and take the operation seriously.

“This operation free our roads is not just for Ministry of Works, it is also for FERMA. We are going to put our eyes on all the directors and engineers of FERMA, we must take this thing very seriously.

“So, we will use contingency to ensure that all out roads are freed. Where there is no contingency, they must notify the permanent secretary and the director of highways immediately. We do not want our people to suffer during this rainy season,’’ he said

(NAN)

WHEN two elephants fight, the grass, they say, suffers. But when cabals fight, and fight dirty like the NNPC and Aliko Dangote are doing, what happens? Dogs eat dogs and chickens gnaw at each other’s intestines. Can of worms explode in the open and cupboards full of skeletons, hitherto securely locked, are forced open. For instance, Dangote alleged that his refinery was being sabotaged by oil cabals bent on the continuation of refined petroleum products. NNPC countered that the said refinery was not yet completed and certified and that its products were inferior to imported stuff. Dangote has fired back with his Malta oil-blending allegation to support his claim that well-heeled personalities want to continue to make a killing with fuel importation at the expense of hapless Nigerians. Understandably, the stakes are high. A single write-up cannot perfectly put all the pieces together. Call it a maze, labyrinth or jig-saw puzzle and you will be right. So, here today, we take a look at some of the information available and allow our readers a better understanding of the issues at stake.

STORY NUMBER 1: In 2023, Dangote had a meeting with his select strategists for the purpose of deciding who, between Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Bola Ahmed Tinubu he should back in the February 2023 presidential election. After analyzing each candidate’s profile, merits, and demerits, the consensus was that Atiku was the best option to back.

Dangote made donations as well to Tinubu’s campaign but his body language showed he preferred Atiku… His business arch rival, Abdul Samad Rabiu of BUA Cement, pitched his tent with Tinubu and did not donate money to Atiku.Rabiu’s support was so personal that he donated his private jets for use by TInubu’s campaign. The same is said of Tony Elumelu who reportedly provided the much-needed cash for Tinubu’s camp during the ill-fated cash crunch and scarcity before the election. No wonder Tony was the first person Tinubu visited in Lagos as president-elect!

That Dangote did not support him was one of the reasons why Asiwaju stayed away when Dangote refinery was later commissioned by Buhari. The election is over. Asiwaju is the president and the chicken has come home to roost. For the first time since the return to democracy in 1999, Dangote is not the favourite of a sitting government. Rabiu and Elumelu have taken his position. The biggest casualty from the politics of Dangote is his 650,000 per day Dangote refinery.

Before Asiwaju, Dangote had an agreement with NNPC that it would invest $2 billion in Dangote refinery or, if it cannot invest in cash, it would provide crude oil worth that amount for Dangote refinery to process. This investment will give NNPC a 20% stake in the Dangote refinery. NNPC is too broke to drop $2 billion, so it chose to provide $2 billion worth of crude oil in lieu of cash. But there is a problem: Buhari, who was the president when the deal was sealed, is no longer in power. The new Whiz kid is not a fan of Dangote anymore; so the NNPC guys read the body language… NNPC, which was at the mercy of Dangote when Buhari was in charge, turned to hard nuts to crack under Tinubu.

This government is also investigating forex allocations made to Dangote when Godwin Emefiele was the CBN governor.

STORY NUMBER 2: By Taiwo Olanegan: I did not believe it when I heard that the Dangote refinery’s capacity is 650,000 barrels of oil per day. Where would the billionaire get that feed stock (crude oil) volume? Is he going to lay pipes from Escravos to Lagos? At that time, our production figure was 1.8m bpd. Would the lOC agree to sell 30% of production volume to Dangote? Where will he get the forex to buy such? And which market would receive his refined products, knowing that the FG was frenetic about making Warri and Port Harcourt refineries to work?

The oil industry is a global cartel… Nigeria’s age-long economic and security challenges are not far from the yo-yo and high-level manipulations in the global oil industry. These intrigues are intentional, international, and sometimes wicked in every sense of the word. That’s why, since 1999, almost all our presidents have added the ministerial supervision of NNPC to their job.

Oil politics is ballistic… When I gave an opinion that the recent cement scarcity and price hike was a war between Tinubu’s Kitchen Cabinet and the Dangote Group, folks shouted at me. Cement price is still high in spite of pleadings and threats by the new government. It was a battle Dangote won. But he is not going to win this new war. The powers-that-be and the international oil players are bigger and more experienced than Dangote. His romantic seasons with Goodluck Jonathan and Buhari are over! Dangote’s trade history, his file and use of forex allocated by Godwin Emefiele are with the government. This is a presidency headed by a man who knows some accounting. The figures are suspicious. Dangote would have been arraigned with Emefiele after the EFCC made attempts but the optics would be terrible for him and the government. So the government chose to put a pedal on it. However, a 650,000 bpd refinery is too large a plate for a person. How can only one fellow own a refinery that could cover the petrol needs of West Africa? What happens when he goes into steel and oil exploration?

In the September 2013 edition of Harvard Business Review, the journal warned about the consequences of allowing Dangote to keep the major stake in the proposed refinery “as it would concentrate too much power in one man’s hand”… Antitrust laws, propaganda, and outright denial of feed stock and certifications will force Dangote to the negotiation table.

 STORY NUMBER 3: NNPC VS DANGOTE REFINERY: THOSE WHO TALK DON’T KNOW THE WHOLE TRUTH AND THOSE WHO KNOW THE TRUTH WON’T TALK

In May 2021, NNPC went into marriage with Dangote Refinery (DR) by proposing to acquire 20% equity in DR. Early 2024, NNPC promised to supply crude to DR. In July 2024, Dangote alerted the public that NNPC did not own 20% in DR but 7.2%. In July 2024, Dangote accused the government of importing bad fuel into the country and that the International Oil Companies and internal forces were bent on sabotaging him. A week later, NNPC fired back that DR is not licensed and its fuel is inferior to the imported one. Hell was let loose.

What lessons can we learn? Dangote cannot complain about the system now. Why? The system has served him well in the last 30 years! The system made him emerge as the richest African alive. Dangote is a one-man cabal! But like DAEWOO in South Korea and the late MKO Abiola, you can be 99% correct in your political calculations but the day you are 1% wrong politically, the financial empire  built through political connections and manipulations will face existential threat.

This is a big lesson: It is dangerous when you have a business that is government-dependent; even though it is the easiest way in developing countries to make  MEGA money (the type that can put you on the FORBES list) through concessions, FX allocation preferential treatment, monopoly, direct printing of money by CBN and sharing of same among the elites, etc. Emefiele allegedly printed N30 trillion and a whopping 85% could not be accounted for or traced to any national projects, according to CBN auditors!

Dangote should sit down with NNPC and resolve issues amicably. Let him do what Bill Gates did when he was faced with similar huge opposition that threatened his survival.  Gates divested from Microsoft – retained only 5% – and took his cash to electricity and health business. Immediately, peace returned. It is the way the world (of business) runs. Once the wealth of the nation resides in your house, peace eludes you! Ali Baba’s experience is also instructive here. Jack Ma, China’s richest man, said: “To get rich is glorious but among the richest men in China, only a few have a good ending!”

STORY NUMBER 4: WHY NIGERIA’S REFINERIES WILL NEVER WORK  – Former President Olusegun Obasanjo

“When I was president, I invited Shell to a meeting. I told them I wanted to hand over the refineries for them to help us run. They bluntly told me they would not. I was shocked. I repeated the request and they stood their ground. When the meeting was over, I asked their big man (MD) to wait behind for a chat. Then I asked him why they were so hesitant about not taking over the refineries. He said did I want to hear the truth? I said yes. He listed four reasons. One, he said Shell makes its money from upstream and that is where its interest lies. Two, he said they only do downstream or retail as a matter of service. Three, he said our refineries would be bad business for them, that globally, companies are going for bigger refineries because of the economics of refineries. Four, he said there is too much corruption in refineries. I thanked him for his honesty. I knew we had a big problem in our hands. I had virtually given up hope on the refineries when God did a miracle. Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola approached me and said they would be interested in buying two of the four refineries. They said they would buy 51 percent stake in Port Harcourt and Kaduna. I was over the moon. I said, finally, this burden would be taken off the neck of the government. They offered $761 million and paid in two installments. Unfortunately, Umaru (President Yar’Adua) canceled the sale and returned the refineries to NNPC. Today, we are still where we were. Someone told me Tinubu said the refineries would work by December. I told the person the refineries would not work. This is based on the information I received from Shell when I was the president”.

STORY NUMBER 5: “Dangote now feels what Nigerians with no government connections are going through in doing business”, activist Aisha Yesufu.

 STORY NUMBER 6: NIGERIA’S ONE AND ONLY GOAT IS PROVING TOO DIFFICULT FOR DANGOTE’S SNAKE TO SWALLOW:

Dangote wanted to take over NNPC assets at the dying hours of Obasanjo’s administration but President Yar’Adua thought it was not proper to hand over the nation’s assets to two individuals who wanted to buy them as scraps. Consequently, the contract was scrapped by Yar’Adua. Buhari/Emefiele came in and provided ENOUGH OXYGEN for Dangote to “complete” his own refinery and even pay 70% of his loan on a factory that was yet to refine one litre of gasoline! It was commissioned by Buhari even when it was not ready!

Meanwhile, Buhari had made substantial forward oil sales that would prevent Dangote from getting crude without breaking existing contracts. Apparently, all is not well with that project ab initio. It seems what took Dangote to the top can no longer sustain him there: i.e. MONOPOLY.  IOCs, NNPC, CBN. In 100/100 circumstances, MONOPOLY is injurious to the health of any national economy.

OLIGOPOLY is a state policy in South Korea; the State deliberately empowered some individuals like DAEWOO, SAMSUNG to create wealth. But the rule of LAW is SACROSANCT. DAEWOO, once the richest South Korean, ended in jail when he broke the law. The CEO of Samsung was sent to jail recently for breaking the law. That’s why Jack Ma (Ali Baba), China’s richest man, also ran into trouble in China. That’s why Google and Microsoft ran into trouble in the West. Monopolists (ALL OF THEM ) build their wealth through unfair exploitation of the Commonwealth…

Nigeria’s OIL BUSINESS belongs to 220 million Nigerians: It is not just a BIG GOAT but Nigeria’s ONLY GOAT. NNPC probably has realized the full implications and that’s why they refused to pay up their counterpart funding to acquire 20% equity as earlier agreed. What should Dangote do in this circumstance? He should come out publicly and sell  at least 49.5% equity to Nigerians in a transparent manner. Only he can’t swallow Nigeria’s only goat, it will CHOKE him! Even in Saudi Arabia, ARAMCO was sold to the whole world and the Saudi government became better thereafter.

STORY NUMBER 7:

I don’t think it’s in anyone’s place to advise Dangote to sell his business to the public. It is inflated and, therefore, he should keep it to himself but he should not be allowed to monopolize our common patrimony. According to experts, a 650,000 per day refinery should not cost more than $8b but he claims he built it for $19b. So, where do we start the discussion if he wants to sell to the public? It’s a single train refinery. If something goes wrong somewhere, the whole plant shuts down.

What can we make of the above and where will it all end?