Elon Musk has once again captured global attention with the announcement of Grok 3, the latest iteration of xAI’s artificial intelligence chatbot. Musk described it as the “smartest AI on Earth,” with a live demonstration scheduled for Monday at 8 p.m. Pacific Time (PT). This corresponds to 11 p.m. Eastern Time (ET), 10 p.m. Central Time (CT), 9 p.m. Mountain Time (MT), 4 a.m. GMT (Tuesday), and 9:30 a.m. Indian Standard Time (IST, Tuesday).

The Promise of Grok 3: A Leap Forward in AI?
While specific details about Grok 3’s capabilities remain under wraps, early indications suggest the AI model will introduce advanced features, possibly including text-to-video conversion and significant efficiency improvements. If true, these enhancements could position Grok 3 as a major competitor to leading AI models like OpenAI’s GPT-4, Google DeepMind’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude.

Musk’s announcement, made via his social media platform X (formerly Twitter), has amplified speculation about Grok 3’s potential. Given Musk’s history of ambitious claims, many are eager to see whether the AI truly delivers on its promise of unmatched intelligence and versatility.

Skepticism and Industry Competition
Despite the excitement, not everyone is convinced Grok 3 will outperform existing AI models. Critics point to Musk’s pattern of making bold statements that sometimes outpace the actual product’s capabilities. Some experts question whether Grok 3 will genuinely surpass the likes of GPT-4 Turbo, which has already demonstrated remarkable reasoning, problem-solving, and multimodal capabilities.
Moreover, competition in the AI space is fiercer than ever. OpenAI continues to refine its ChatGPT models, Google is pushing its Gemini AI, and Meta is expanding its LLaMA series. With these giants already setting high standards in AI development, Grok 3 must demonstrate truly revolutionary features to claim the top spot.
A Strategic Move for xAI and X

Musk’s AI venture, xAI, has been positioning itself as a major disruptor in the artificial intelligence landscape. Unlike OpenAI, which collaborates closely with Microsoft, or Google DeepMind, which operates under Alphabet, xAI has emphasized its independence and integration with Musk’s other ventures, particularly X.

The integration of Grok into X’s ecosystem gives it a unique advantage, allowing direct engagement with millions of users. Previous iterations of Grok have been available exclusively to X Premium subscribers, and if Grok 3 continues this trend, it could be a strategic push to drive subscriptions and engagement on the platform.

Additionally, Grok 3’s launch aligns with Musk’s broader vision of creating a more transparent and decentralized AI model. He has frequently criticized OpenAI for deviating from its original nonprofit mission and has positioned xAI as a company dedicated to the ethical and open development of artificial intelligence.

The Live Demo: A Defining Moment 

The upcoming live demo is expected to be a crucial moment for Grok 3. AI showcases often make or break public perception, as real-time demonstrations provide a rare glimpse into an AI’s actual performance. Given Musk’s history of high-profile events—ranging from Tesla’s Cybertruck unveiling to SpaceX’s Starship launches—the Grok 3 demo is likely to be a spectacle.

Observers will be watching closely for evidence of Grok 3’s ability to generate complex responses, engage in nuanced reasoning, and possibly create AI-generated video content. If successful, the event could mark a turning point in AI development, further intensifying competition in the space. However, if the demo falls short of expectations, skepticism surrounding Musk’s AI claims could grow.

Market and Industry Reactions
The announcement has already generated strong reactions from the tech and investment communities. AI stocks, particularly those tied to major players in the field, have seen increased volatility since the news broke. Investors are keen to understand whether Grok 3 represents a true market disruption or simply another incremental improvement in the AI race.
Technology leaders and AI researchers have also weighed in, with some expressing cautious optimism while others remain skeptical. The debate centers around whether Grok 3 is genuinely an industry-defining leap or a continuation of existing advancements repackaged with bold marketing.

What’s Next for AI?
The launch of Grok 3 underscores the rapid pace of AI development and the intensifying competition among major players. Regardless of whether it lives up to Musk’s claims, its release signals continued innovation in artificial intelligence, bringing new possibilities—and challenges—for businesses, researchers, and society as a whole.
If Grok 3 successfully demonstrates groundbreaking capabilities, it could force rivals to accelerate their own advancements. On the other hand, if it falls short, it may serve as a reminder that AI progress is often more incremental than revolutionary.
One thing is certain: the world will be watching closely on Monday night as Musk and xAI unveil Grok 3 in what could be a defining moment for the future of artificial intelligence.

Conversations about both the detriments and benefits of artificial intelligence use in academic settings have been prevalent in recent years. However, an often overlooked consideration in these discussions is the impact that AI has on the environment. 

Consequences of computing

With the sheer amount of information AI makes accessible, there exists a need for a place to house all of the power needed for this data: AI data centers are large facilities that provide the power and computing resources for machine-learning models. 

These centers consist of hardware and software systems that continuously store, compute and transmit data. Due to thousands of servers operating uninterrupted, the data centers require significant maintenance to prevent overheating through robust cooling methods often utilizing large quantities of water. 

One query on ChatGPT requires 519 milliliters of water, which is a little more than one bottle of water. The chatbot handles around 10 million queries daily, using up to 1.4 million gallons alone for answering user’s questions, not including the water usage needed to maintain data centers themselves. 

According to the Washington Post, “a large data center, researchers say, can gobble up anywhere between 1 million and 5 million gallons of water a day — as much as a town of 10,000 to 50,000 people.”

According to University of Arizona associate professor of chemical and environmental engineering Kerri Hickenbottom, these centers can use air or water-based cooling systems, both of which necessitate large quantities of water, albeit from different sources.  

“If you think about your home, you can have a swamp cooler that cools your home, or you can have AC, which is like a mechanical compression system. These systems, both of them, take quite a bit of water to operate. The evaporative cooling systems evaporate the water, and then they use that latent heat of evaporation as a cooling effect, and then they distribute that cold air to cool off the servers,” Hickenbottom said. “Air cooled systems also use water, except not necessarily on site. What they’ll do is use a mechanical compressor […].  They use a lot of energy on site to compress a coolant to then be used to cool the servers. On site, they may not use a lot of water, but they use a lot of water at the power generation facility that generates the energy to run your cooling system.”

The water can only be recycled a few times before replenishing the system with clean freshwater to prevent mineral and salt buildup. 

Beyond this water usage, the centers also require extensive amounts of energy, energy that often comes from fossil fuels. 

According to the United Nations Environmental Programme, “a request made through ChatGPT, an AI-based virtual assistant, consumes 10 times the electricity of a Google Search, reported the International Energy Agency.” 

The IEA further reported that “by 2026, electricity consumption by data centers, cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence could reach 4% of annual global energy usage — roughly equal to the amount of electricity used by the entire country of Japan.”

Eyes on Arizona: Why the southwestern state is prime real estate for data centers

Arizona currently houses 111 data centers with 102 in Phoenix, eight in Tucson and one in Nogales.  

According to Hickenbottom, Arizona is an ideal location for these centers for multiple reasons; not only is energy relatively cheap in the state, but Arizona is located on a high quality fiber optics line with good connection to other major metropolitan areas, like Los Angeles and San Antonio. Arizona has stable climate conditions (no natural disasters) that make it more suitable to the construction of these centers. 

However, Arizona is also water-stressed, making the increased usage of this already precious resource troubling for many communities across the state. Drought conditions throughout Arizona continue to worsen; over the past few months, Phoenix fell just one day short of reaching its record for straight days of dry conditions (the record is 160, and the city finally received measurable precipitation after 159 days). In addition to this, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 64% of Arizona is now experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions.

This data begs the question: how is Arizona equipped to meet the needs of the data centers it attracts?

According to Hickenbottom, it might not be.

“I do not think we’re prepared for this load. I think that there’s a lot of excitement for attracting these data centers, because, you know, it does bring a lot of economic growth. However, in the long run, it doesn’t provide a lot of jobs. Initially it does, because, you know, you’re building these data centers, which is a huge infrastructure undertaking,” Hickenbottom said. 

University of Arizona assistant professor of watershed management and ecohydrology Shang Gao expressed a similar sentiment about the impact of data centers on a state that is already short of water. 

“It always boggles my mind why we have to have a huge data center in the middle of the desert. In terms of energy it sort of makes sense, as we have large solar energy input, but the real question is the water usage,” Gao said. “Having data centers is really not an option if you ask me, as we are already short of water. Even if the adjacent areas of Phoenix where the data centers are located have more water than Tucson from their local source of water from the two reservoirs in the Phoenix area, it is still an issue. The region depends on the Central Arizona Project, which migrates water from Colorado hundreds of miles away which brings the water price here up.”

Water prices have become a concern for all parties involved, companies and individuals alike. 

Negotiating conflicting interests: Reactions from public and private sectors

According to a report published from the University of Tulsa, tech companies are able to often negotiate better rates for water than local residents, as water rates are set by public authorities on factors of cost of water treatment and distribution rather than the supply.

Some Arizona residents were outraged about Google’s negotiated water rate for its planned data center in Mesa, Arizona, which is “$6.08 per 1,000 gallons of water, while residents paid $10.80 per 1,000 gallons”, placing the community at a disadvantage. 

However, in this similar vein of negotiation, these centers also have leveraging power when it comes to the use of renewable energy.

“[Arizona] is really trying to shift a lot of its energy sources, shifting from natural gas and coal. We’ve seen some power generating stations using conventional natural gas and coal, those types of resources, we’ve seen those generating stations close and more solar popping up in the area. These data centers also have a big sustainability component. They know that they need to be more sustainable, and so they can help drive the market for renewable energy resources,” Hickenbottom said. “When they’re looking for contracts and new places to set up their establishments, [data centers] actually have a lot of bargaining power with the local municipalities and utilities to say, hey, I want my energy portfolio to be 90% renewable energy resources, which helps these utilities for planning and and building new infrastructure that’s  more renewable and resource based. so they do have a lot of sway in that space, which is very positive.”

Not all negative: How AI is being used to solve problems it creates

The irony lies in the reality that despite the water consumption of artificial intelligence, it is becoming a major force in presenting unique methods and knowledge of improving water conservation.

AI is a double-edged sword. While it requires many resources for upkeep, it remains a valuable tool for researchers, assisting in decoding large data sets and advancing various components of research initiatives.  

“AI is data resilient, the system depends on what data you want and the model will be trained accordingly so it makes things super efficient. So we can skip the hidden mechanisms that we may or may not understand and look at the end results without the intermediate steps. If you ask anybody in academia involved in prediction, optimization, categorization work they will use AI techniques and I am for sure using it,” Gao said. 

According to an article published in the scientific journal Discover Water, “by leveraging data from diverse sources, including micro sensing, imaging, in situ and remote sensing devices, AI techniques are now enabling the creation of reliable and robust hydrological models at finer spatiotemporal resolutions, which is crucial for addressing highly nonlinear hydro-meteorological processes [31,32,33,34,35]. Therefore, exploring innovative AI models is essential for better allocation, regulation and conservation of water resources, significantly contributing to their sustainable management.”

There is always room for improvement in the functionality of technology. “If we can develop technology to improve the water usage efficiency for the data centers, like how we are already doing research on how to make agriculture water usage efficient, if we make the usage in data centers less wasteful, we can create more room to meet that demand,” Gao said.  

AI and accessibility: How energy and water usage sparks broader conversations

As conversations about the role AI plays in academic, professional, social and environmental spheres continue, researchers are keeping an eye on how this influence will affect data usage and accessibility. With these data centers contributing to significant energy consumption, prices may start to rise for average consumers. 

Hickenbottom believes that users will see a change in the prices of resources, which may affect how we engage in different activities. 

“Maybe we’ll go back to watching more DVDs, streaming less. I don’t know. Maybe we’ll read more actual books instead of downloading. Maybe we’ll go to the library more. Maybe we’ll regress a little bit, do a little bit of a data cleanse […] and start to connect more with real objects, which wouldn’t be a bad thing. I don’t know,” Hickenbottom said.

This change in prices could also impact accessibility and create economic disparities in data usage. 

“Accessibility to data I think will change a lot, like who can access it, because it’s going to get more expensive to access […]. I don’t think it’s going to necessarily be as accessible as it has always been, so that will be something interesting to keep an eye on moving forward,” Hickenbottom said.

[wildcat]

The mother of Miss Universe Nigeria, Chidimma Adetshina, Anabela Rungo, has been apprehended by South African authorities.

Naija News understands that Adetshina’s mother was arrested over allegations of fraudulently obtaining a South African identity document.

According to local news platform, Sunday World, the Department of Home Affairs confirmed that Rungo, a Mozambican national, was apprehended at a hideout in Cape Town on Saturday in a joint operation by Home Affairs investigators and the South African Police Service.

Department spokesperson Siya Qoza was reported to have stated that Rungo had been declared persona non grata in September 2024 after officials uncovered irregularities in her residency status.

“Investigators from the department, assisted by SAPS, detained Anabela Rungo at a property in Cape Town. The Department withdrew Rungo’s South African documentation in September 2024 after finding that it had been fraudulently obtained, rendering her ineligible to continue residing in South Africa,” Qoza said.

Rungo’s status came under scrutiny following the controversy surrounding her daughter’s participation in the Miss South Africa beauty pageant.

It was later revealed that Adetshina was ineligible to contest as she was not a South African citizen.

At the time of her arrest, Rungo was reportedly with Adetshina’s minor child, prompting the authorities to engage the Department of Social Development and SAPS Child Protection Services to ensure the child’s welfare.

Qoza accused Rungo of deliberately defying the country’s immigration laws despite being declared undesirable.

“It appears that Rungo has defied her ‘undesirable’ status through her Mozambican passport. Investigations are ongoing into further potential misrepresentation and fraudulent conduct.

“After being processed by Home Affairs over her illegal continued residence in South Africa, she will be handed over to SAPS, as she is also the subject of an ongoing Hawks investigation,” he added.

[NaijaNews]

There is always one child in the family—the one who refuses to listen, who breaks the rules but insists he has done nothing wrong. The one who, even when caught red-handed, folds his arms and declares, “No! No! I didn’t do it!” This child does not believe in consequences. He believes that if he cries loud enough, the truth will disappear. If he blames others, he will escape accountability. If he screams and throws a tantrum, the world will grow tired and stop questioning him. But the world is not afraid. The world is watching. And the world has had enough of the games. And so, Gambaryan Therapy continues. This nationwide therapy, conceptualized by Professor John Egbeazien Oshodi, a psychologist, is not about one scandal, one administration, or one moment of failure. It is a diagnosis for a nation trapped in a relentless cycle of denial, corruption, and impunity. This therapy is not a mere critique; it is a long-overdue intervention for a leadership that refuses to mature, a ruling class that has perfected the art of deception, and a system that punishes truth while rewarding criminality. No one claims that everything Tigran Gambaryan has said is the absolute truth. No one is saying this therapy is the perfect cure. But when a nation is rotting, diseased, and sinking in its own filth, the first step is to stop pretending that the problem doesn’t exist. Nigeria is a country where corruption is so deeply ingrained that when someone pulls back the curtain and points at the rot, the response is almost always the same— “No! No! That is not true!”—like a small child caught stealing who immediately shakes his head and insists, “It wasn’t me!”

The Patient Who Refuses Treatment

Nigeria is not an ordinary patient. It is a deliberately resistant one—one that dismisses every clear symptom of its own deterioration. Even when presented with undeniable evidence, it scoffs and cries out, “Lies! Propaganda! An attack against me!”It is a patient that, when prescribed a proven treatment for recovery, smirks, tosses it aside, and insists with misplaced confidence, “I am fine. There is nothing wrong with me.”Yet, when the fever worsens, when the pain spreads, when the body starts to fail, this very same patient clutches its chest in shock, wailing, “Why me? Why now? “As though the disease had not been ignored for decades, as though the warnings had not been loud and persistent, as though it had not actively refused to take its medicine. But illness does not vanish simply because a patient refuses to acknowledge it. Reality does not shift to accommodate delusion. And Nigeria’s fever is only getting worse.

See What Just Happened

Canada denied visas to Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff and other top military officials. This was not an accident. It was not a clerical mistake. It was not a misunderstanding. It was a statement. A statement that says, “We see what you are doing. We know who you are. And we do not trust you. “In a serious country, this would have triggered reflection, self-examination, and diplomatic engagement. A serious government would pause and ask, “Why have we lost credibility? “A serious leader would say, “How do we repair this? “But Nigeria is not a serious country. Instead of reflecting, it lashes out. Instead of engaging, it retaliates. Instead of reforming, it denies everything. And so, the tantrum begins.

The NSA and the Politics of Denial

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, a man entrusted with a role that demands wisdom, diplomacy, and strategic foresight, reacts with the impulsiveness of someone unaccustomed to being challenged. His response to a situation requiring careful diplomatic handling? A blunt and dismissive “They can go to hell. ”This is the same Ribadu who, according to Binance’s Tigran Gambaryan, was allegedly linked to billion-dollar payout demands—a claim that, whether fully substantiated or not, raises serious questions about how national security became entangled in financial negotiations. His mishandling of the Binance case led to visa restrictions on Nigerian officials, an unintended diplomatic snub from the U.S., and the quiet shelving of a proposed meeting between President Tinubu and President Biden. Instead of stepping back and assessing the damage, Ribadu chooses defiance, doubling down rather than recognizing that Nigeria’s international standing is at stake. But isolation is not strength.

Fake Cameras, Real Corruption

The Department of State Services (DSS), an agency tasked with national intelligence and counterterrorism, allegedly took part in a staged interrogation—complete with fake cameras. Rather than focusing on real security threats, it is accused of setting up an illusion of investigation, a performance designed to intimidate rather than uncover the truth.If this is how an international company was treated, what happens to local businesses and everyday Nigerians? What does it say about a country where intelligence resources are allegedly diverted for staged coercion rather than real security threats? And then, there’s the House of Representatives, whose members, according to Gambaryan’s claims, allegedly demanded a $150 million cryptocurrency bribe—an accusation that, whether entirely accurate or not, reflects a troubling pattern.

A Crime Expert Who Saw It All

Nigeria’s leadership often gets away with intimidation. But not this time. Tigran Gambaryan is not an ordinary businessman. He is a crime expert, an investigator, a man trained in identifying fraud, deception, and financial crimes. He was not intimidated by the staged cameras. He was not fooled by the false interrogations. He understood exactly what was happening, and now, he is telling the world. Nigeria can silence its own people. It can suppress dissent. It can arrest journalists. It can weaponize defamation and cybercrime laws to frighten critics. But it cannot intimidate a trained fraud investigator who knows how corruption works. And now, his testimony is exposing more than anyone in power expected.

There Is Possibly Will Be More Bans, More Revelations—Start the Therapy Now

This is just the beginning. The visa denials will continue. The diplomatic snubs will increase. Foreign governments will keep their distance. International investors will find safer markets.

And yet, Nigeria’s leadership still behaves as though it can intimidate its way out of accountability. But here’s the reality:

You can intimidate citizens, but you cannot intimidate the world.

You can deny the truth, but that does not change the facts.

You can arrest journalists, but that will not stop the exposure.

This is why Gambaryan Therapy is necessary. No one said this therapy would be easy. No one said it would be pleasant. But when a system has become so deeply entangled in deception, the cure cannot be gentle. Start the therapy now, before the world forces you to. Because make no mistake—the disease is winning.

Nigeria has just had one hell of a week. Like an evil spirit, hell hovered over Nigeria with fraught silence. To stave it off, Muslims will seem to have recited the Quranic verse of the Yaseen to keep the evil away. Christians banned and banished. Hell held on regardless. Hell was first let loose when a hellish temperament of the country’s National Security Adviser, (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, escaped from its scabbard. Ribadu is ostensibly managing a loose, hellish temperament. In a moment of unguarded, loose hold on his temper, Nuhu declared that Canada could go to hell. Ribadu’s temper escaped while he was reacting to Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa’s open revelation that Canada refused him and some military officers visa. They were billed to attend a remembrance in honour of fallen soldiers. Ribadu was openly miffed by what he termed a “painful, disrespectful” visa denial.

Now, there is hell everywhere. As I said earlier, last week was indeed very hellish for Nigeria. In William Congreve’s 1697 play with the title, The Mourning Bride, one of Congreve’s female characters, Zara, a captive queen, had raised some hell. She told a prison guard, “Heav’n has no Rage, like Love to Hatred turn’d, Nor Hell a Fury, like a Woman scorn’d.” Ondo State got caught in the hell narrative when the counsel of her ex-First Lady got scorned. Betty, wife of late governor Rotimi Akeredolu then stepped out to reify the hell discourse, lest Ondo State be let out of the hell loop. In an interview with a Star News, Betty would seem to have let all hell loose. Like Zara in Congreve’s. This time, however, her hell was reserved for spiritualists who wittingly or unwittingly kill their victims in the name of spirituality. Also, like Ribadu, she reserve a hellish space for those who made the cost of living this unbearable for the common man. A breast cancer survivor, Betty was against-method. She abandoned the African orthodoxy of not speaking uncomplimentary words about the dead. In doing this, Betty burst a closely guarded bubble of her home and in the process, perforating an over-a-century-old fake veneration of religion. Though not overt, orthodox religious belief, especially in Africa, is that diseases like cancer are caused by spiritual attacks.

UK Minister of State, Cabinet Office, Baroness Lucy Neville-Rolfe and Nuhu Ribadu

“What came out of their mountain climbing, ‘blessed handkerchiefs, water, olive oil’, etc., from the G.Os and all the noisy prayers like people possessed by demons? If Aketi had listened to me, I wouldn’t be a widow.” She was obviously mocking the Prophet Jeros who, like a pestilence, suck the nectar of the vulnerable in Nigeria.

Hell was not done with Nigeria. In fact, you would imagine that Nigeria was Hell’s temporary habitation. That same week, one hell of a news crept into the information highway. It was the story of how Starboy Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, got his ladies-centric consultancy bubble burst in the CBN. Said the report, unsettling grunts had recently been reverberating round the apex bank’s 29 departments. Apparently, Starboy took the Yoruba aphorism of ‘the persistent grunts of a pig will inhabit its innards forever’ (hùn-hùn-hùn inú elédè l’ó ńgbé) extra-literally. So, he could not be bothered by CBN pigs’ grunts. He kept on with his Pín-yà job. Apologies to those who do not know the geneology of Pín-yà. Between January 1984 and August 1985 when he administered Ogun State as governor, all hell was let loose as Oladipo Diya reportedly inflicted so much pain on the citizens. It was such that, rather than call him by his ‘Diya’ surname, Ogun people (secretly, of course!) inflected it to an alliterative Pín-yà which literally meant ‘distributor of pain’. Like the biblical Rehoboam, Cardoso had recently doubled down on his peremptory chastising of Nigerians with scorpions. He did this through his new policy of having hapless Nigerians suffer deductions during cash withdrawals with their ATM card.

The hùn-hùn-hùn fuming and grumbling of the Senior staff members of the CBN however refused to reside inside of them. So they raised hell that the CBN was being bankrupted by an over-expenditure of beneficence they suspected was sexual. Hell! In his moment of impudence and audacity, Starboy had reportedly arbitrarily hired three female consultants mockingly christened “the Cardoso Women”. It was to these daughters of discord, apologies to Wole Soyinka, that Cardoso allegedly magisterially allocated “unbelievably high and obscene” salaries and allowances, massive enough to construct another Ibadan’s Cocoa House. The obscene salaries paid the three mystery women range from N50 million and N35 million monthly. The amounts are said to be higher than combined salaries of 10 directors.

The qestion now is, what gave rise to this apex bank’s strange contraption? Was it phallus-driven or taken from the playbook of nepotism, the bug that has bitten Nigeria’s current government? Whenever such unconscionable favouritism occurs, reference is always made to Middle Ages, up to the 17^th century, where Catholic Popes and Bishops, because of their vow of celibacy, enthroned their nephews in positions that are usually accorded from fathers to sons. Many Popes of this period, like the Cardoso Women’s unbridled uplift, elevated their nephews and relatives into the Cardinalate, thereby instituting a Papal dynasty. A forerunner of Cardoso in this favouritism regard was Pope Callixtus 111. The Pope made his nephews cardinals, one of whom was Rodrigo who later became Pope Alexander V1. In Britain, nepotism is usually symbolized by the phrase, “Bob’s your uncle”. It became fashionable when the Third Marquess of Salisbury, Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil, promoted Arthur Balfour, his nephew, to the position of Chief Secretary for Ireland. But, we need more information on what drove this variant of nepotism of the Cardoso Women hue. Do we call it phallus-nepotism? It reminds me of a verse in an Ifa poetry chant which begins thus, “When they are favoured by the world, they act unconscionably…” (B’áyé bá ye wón tán, ìwà ìbàjé ni wón ńhù…).

We had hardly dispensed with the phallus-fear hell raised by the “Cardoso Women” when Tigran Gambaryan of the crypto finance firm, Binance raised a huge fireball of the size of the hell anticipated in Armageddon. You recollect that Gambaryan and his colleague were arrested for money laundering by the Nigerian state. Remember also that Gambaryan’s colleague’s escape raised some hell in the polity. A diplomatic compromise eventually got Gambaryan off the hook. Now, the most recent hell is that the American has started singing like the finch canary bird. In an X post last week, Gambaryan alleged that three Nigerian lawmakers demanded a whooping $150 million bribe from him to facilitate his escape, arrest and prosecution. In the X post, Gambaryan also set Ribadu’s feet on the road to hell. So, rather than Canada going to hell, our NSA is in one hell of a trouble. According to the latest canary,  Ribadu and some other government officials were part of this well-orchestrated bribery roulette.

Now, let me embark on short responses to the multiple hell I mentioned overleaf. Yoruba Apala music legend, Ayinla Omowura, raising hell about misplacement of temper, had wondered why someone who cooks a soup that loses its savour would blame the plate on which it was served for their culinary misadventure (Bí’yò ò dun’bè, e ó se fì’kanra m’éwé?). Why do we blame those well-organized countries for refusing us visas? Rather than raising hell, the key lies in fixing our own country. Gen. Musa himself hit the nail on its head when he  said the Canada visa denial was a clear prompting to Nigeria to “stand on its own, stand strong as a nation.” Many people have posited that unless western countries deny our peripatetic leaders visa to their countries, we would never fix Nigeria. Take for instance the bad example of our president who literally takes his breakfast in Abuja, lunch in Paris and dinner in any part of the world, many of the trips ostensibly to take care of his health. Why doesn’t he clone his Paris or UK hospice here in Nigeria?

And again, why would Ribadu and Musa blame Canada for denying Nigerian military officers visa to observe a social event as mundane as honouring fallen soldiers? Were those fallen soldiers Nigerians? If not, of what importance is the COAS’ attendance of such an event which on the surface looks like a jamboree? Methinks no greater honour could be given to gallant soldier fighters than upholding the cause they died for and keeping the family they left behind. Almost on a yearly basis, retired servicemen cry out due to their neglect by the military high command. How would Musa and his fat-epaulettes, fat-tummied officers’ travelling to Canada on a social junket memorialize these soldiers? I think, rather than ask her to go to hell, we should thank Canada for preserving Nigeria’s scarce forex that would have been immolated on this fanfare. I also think Alozie Ogugbuaja (police PRO during the IBB era’s) pepper soup theory is being inverted here. Ribadu is apparently taking too much pepper soup and its ancillary companion from the Police Officers’ Mess. They are likely responsible for this uncouth hell gaffe.

Now, to Betty Akeredolu’s hell. For once, let’s thank this Imo State-born woman for her against-method view. He who feels it knows it. For fear of raising hell and being accused of going to hell, Nigerians who suffer in the hands of christian and Islamic spiritualists have kept sealed lips on the havoc done them by the charlatans. Many had their loved ones dragged to death. It took Dora Akunyili’s son’s revelation in a viral video a couple of years ago for us to discover how G.Os lured the NAFDAC amazon to her death through their false assurances of healing. Betty is the one nursing the pangs of her husband’s loss and is one who feels the pain. Let us learn from her revelation and stop patronizing fraudulent spiritualists on ailments which science can cure. Betty herself is the best empirical example.

And then, the “Cardoso Women” in the CBN. My question is, why are men of power, at the apogee of their rule, always implicated in the hell that resides between their laps? This moment, I race for a copy of my Ligali Mukaiba vinyl. Mukaiba, another Yoruba Apala musical lord with a uniquely mellifluous and sleepy voice, was Lagos, Epe-born. In one of his 1970s tracks, he speaks to the pervasive influence of women in the lives of men, comparable only to drugs on addicts. Mukaiba sang, “I cannot see what a woman cannot fashion out with a man once she arrests his heart. If she orders him to go to Sokoto or Jos, off the man goes…” (Mi ò wá rí’hun t’óbìnrin ò lè fi’ni se/ t’ó bá ńwu’ni/t’ó bá ńj’àrábà eni/t’ó bá l’ó yá ní Sókótó/kùrù kere o…a ó tèlée l’éyìn ni/T’ó bá l’ó yá ni Jos o, a ó tèlé e lo ni…)

If you want to know the immense power of women and why men in power become captives of their own libido, please read an earlier piece I did with the title Atiku Abubakar and the sexual history of the Nigerian presidency (February 6, 2022). In it, using the story of Zimbabwean former Prime Minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, who suffered “a nasty blow from below,” an euphemism for impotency, as well as Nigerian leaders’, (Ibrahim Babangida, Atiku Abubakar, Olusegun Obasanjo) I traced the geography and history of libidinous rascality in Nigeria’s topmost power echelon. I also explored the centrality and virility of power, while attempting to show how men of power, through their libido, use sex as a locus of power. The lesson I came with was given by Prof Wale Adebanwi in a seminal journal article where he stated that, all of us, scholars, lay scholars and society as a whole, “need to pay greater attention to the ways in which obscenity can help explain the nature of power.” I used these men’s awkward exercise of their virile members to explain how libidinous politics and corruption cannot be divorced from Nigeria’s socio-politics.

Now, to the Gambaryan hell. Almost immediately he revealed the stenchy details of the bribe allegations, the Nigerian government attempted to douse the raging hell fire with officialese theatrics. Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information, made very feeble, and I dare say, unconvincing and puerile attempt to douse the bribery conflagration. In saner countries, these allegations are enough to get officials running helter-skelter. But, not to worry, this is Nigeria, home to fantastically corrupt governments notorious for crippling the country with bribery. Idris just needed to fulfill all righteousness. And he did. He obviously didn’t sound convincing and didn’t care. The press release merely went into the archives of similar rebuttals in the past and the playbook of governments’ appeal to patriotism. In the service to the god of cant, the minister merely made use of time-worn officialese which Nigerians know have always been used as diapers to cover government officials’ heists. It was same way a denial was put up to Femi Otedola’s allegation against House of Representatives member, Farouk Lawan, for receiving a $500,000 bribe. What happened in the end? I personally believe Gambaryan and hold that his allegation is consistent with a narrative of the Nigerian bigman in public service. He had a graphic  and believable description of the scene of the alleged crime and the alleged dramatis personae. He is to me a witness of truth. We must not lose track of the fact that, whenever it is about corruption, Nigerian government officials’ notoriety for swimming in the puddle is worse than a swine’s.

Isn’t it an oxymoron that the Nigerian government, which should be eager to sacrifice corrupt cogs in the wheels of its progress is the one defending the accused?  Nigerians would have expected each of those officials Gambaryan mentioned to be investigated by an impartial panel and not coming out to wax its sanctimony. Not to worry. Nigerians know who to believe over the Gambaryan allegation. The Binance executive’s home country, I am sure, must also be in possession of the hard facts of the transaction. The truths is that, the hun-hun-hun of alleged official and unofficial corruption allegedly traced to this government in the last 21 months is mind-boggling and concerning. If ever the baton changes hand, Nigerians must be ready to be treated to the most putrid display of swimming maggots in the history of Nigerian governance.

Oh, what a hell!

The recent violent altercation at Nnamdi Azikiwe University (UNIZIK), where Goddy-Mbakwe Chimamaka Precious physically assaulted Dr. Chukwudi Okoye, is not just an isolated disciplinary issue—it is a deep psychological and behavioral crisis that raises serious red flags about student mental health, impulse control, aggression, and deception. This is not an issue of mere student misconduct; rather, it exposes a dangerous trend in Nigerian academic institutions, where unchecked aggression, false accusations, and violent behavior threaten the integrity and safety of learning environments.

The video evidence and eyewitness reports clearly contradict her fabricated claim that the lecturer had hit her. Instead of simply acknowledging the lecturer’s gentle tap and polite request, she immediately escalated the situation into a lie, portraying herself as the victim while launching a vicious, uncontrolled physical attack. She tore his clothes, slapped him, scratched his face, and bit him multiple times on the arms, leaving deep bite marks that serve as undeniable proof of her extreme aggression and loss of control. This level of uncontrolled behavior demonstrates a severe breakdown in discipline, impulse control, and moral reasoning, which is symptomatic of larger issues within Nigeria’s educational system and society at large.

Beyond the immediate violence and dishonesty, this case demands a deeper psychological analysis of her mental state and emotional well-being. While her actions reflect unchecked aggression, there is an equally pressing concern—how she will psychologically process her sudden downfall, public disgrace, and expulsion. Individuals who display extreme impulsivity and aggression often struggle with self-harm, suicidal tendencies, or destructive retaliation when faced with major consequences.

The Nigerian Educational System and the Crisis of Student Behavior

Nigeria’s educational institutions are currently facing a serious behavioral crisis, where students increasingly display recklessness, hostility, and disrespect for authority. Many Nigerian students have grown up in environments where entitlement, defiance, and a lack of discipline have been normalized, leading to dangerous situations such as this one. Instead of embracing responsibility and personal growth, some students have resorted to blaming authority figures for their failures, exhibiting violent outbursts, and manipulating situations to their advantage through deceit and aggression.

There is an urgent need for educational reform that includes strict behavioral standards, psychological interventions, and disciplinary measures that go beyond mere expulsion. A case like this serves as a warning: if left unchecked, this culture of dishonesty and aggression will continue to degrade the Nigerian academic system, turning universities into battlefields of entitlement, violence, and false accusations.

A Premeditated Act of Dishonesty and Violence: The Case for Criminal Charges

In any democratic society, such a premeditated act of dishonesty and violence would not only result in expulsion but also criminal charges. Given the severity of her false accusations, assault, and public disorder, she would likely face arrest, prosecution, and possible incarceration under standard legal proceedings. Her manipulative lying, violent outburst, and complete disregard for authority demonstrate deep-seated behavioral issues that must be addressed through psychological intervention. An individual capable of fabricating a serious allegation against a lecturer, initiating a physical attack, and showing no remorse for such actions poses a long-term risk to any academic or professional environment.

If she had succeeded in her false claims, the lecturer could have faced severe reputational damage, legal troubles, or even job termination. False allegations of violence carry dangerous implications, particularly in an era where accusations of misconduct can permanently ruin lives and careers. This level of deliberate deceit and aggression signals a highly unstable personality that must be examined professionally before she is ever allowed back into an academic environment. Nigerian universities must begin to take a firm stance against this kind of behavior to prevent further instances of students exploiting victimhood to justify violence and disorder.

The Psychological Risks of a Sudden and Shameful Downfall

For someone who displayed such extreme aggression and fabricated lies to justify her actions, the sudden reality of expulsion and social disgrace will likely trigger a severe emotional breakdown. The humiliation of being widely exposed on social media, publicly expelled, and rejected by an academic institution can be overwhelming, particularly for someone who has poor emotional regulation and difficulty coping with consequences.

Studies in forensic and behavioral psychology show that individuals who react to frustration with explosive aggression and violence often experience deep emotional turmoil when they face consequences they did not anticipate. This can manifest in severe anger, destructive tendencies, self-harm, or even suicidal ideation. A person who is capable of such extreme violence against another individual may also be at risk of turning that same violence inward when faced with overwhelming shame and failure.

Another significant aspect of this situation is the family shame and psychological toll it imposes, particularly given reports that one of Precious’s parents is a lecturer. This not only deepens the emotional weight of the incident but also amplifies the professional and social repercussions the parent may endure. For an academician, having a child publicly expelled for violent misconduct and dishonesty is a profound disgrace that could tarnish their professional standing and credibility. The stigma associated with such an incident can trigger intense emotional distress, anxiety, and even depression, especially in a tightly knit academic community where reputation is paramount. Beyond personal shame, the parent may encounter judgment from colleagues, professional scrutiny, and diminished respect within their institution. Additionally, the family itself may experience internal strain, as the fallout from this incident could lead to strained relationships, feelings of failure, and immense pressure to restore their public image. Given these complex emotional and social challenges, it would be beneficial for the affected parent to receive structured psychological support, including coping strategies and counseling, to navigate the distress and potential fallout of this crisis.

The Urgent Need for Psychological Intervention

For these reasons, I strongly advocate for mandatory psychological evaluation and therapy before Precious is considered for re-admission into any university. This is not just about discipline—it is about crisis intervention, ensuring both her safety and the safety of others in any academic institution she may enter in the future.

Nigeria must recognize that violence and dishonesty in academia are not just disciplinary matters—they are mental health and social issues that require comprehensive intervention. If universities do not begin to mandate psychological evaluations for students who exhibit extreme aggression and dishonesty, we will continue to see a rise in similar cases, where students engage in reckless violence, false accusations, and destructive behavior, knowing that the worst consequence they will face is expulsion.

The UNIZIK incident is a glaring wake-up call for educational institutions to recognize the psychological dangers of extreme aggression, dishonesty, and unchecked behavioral disorders in students. Universities must act now to introduce mandatory psychological evaluation and therapy for expelled students before considering their re-admission anywhere. Failure to address such behavioral disorders will only perpetuate a cycle of dishonesty, aggression, and institutional breakdown.

This case must not be ignored or downplayed. A student who lies, attacks, and manipulates without remorse is not just a disciplinary concern but a serious psychological and social threat. Without intervention, such individuals escalate over time, causing greater harm to others—and, eventually, to themselves. If educational institutions continue to expel students without structured intervention, they are simply transferring the problem elsewhere, creating a dangerous cycle that will continue to harm individuals and academic communities alike.

Nigeria must make it a national priority to introduce psychological assessments for students involved in violent incidents, train university officials in behavioral intervention, and reinforce policies that protect the integrity of academic environments. If we do not take these steps now, we are not just failing this student—we are failing the future of our education system and our society as a whole.

Mr. President, over the last 15 months, your country, America, has subjected the people of Gaza to mass murder, genocide & ethnic cleansing.

You armed, assisted & enabled the State of Israel to murder, by your own admission, hundreds of thousands of innocent Gazan civilians, the vast majority of whom were women & children.

You turned their once beautiful country into a poisonous, stinking, uninhabitable, burnt flesh-filled, rodent-infested sea of landmines & sulphurous rubble & into an ocean of foul, rotting, verminous body parts.
You did this by supplying Israel with the most deadly modern weapons including 2, 000 pound bombs which they unleashed on a weak, impoverished & defenceless civilian population in what can only be described as the most barbaric slaughter in modern history.

You crushed them in body, spirit & soul.

Yet your nation was still not done.

Horror of the civilized world

As soon as you were sworn into office, to the horror of the civilised world, you declared your insidious intention to displace the 1.6 million Gazans that are still left alive (there were originally 2.5 million) & take over their land in order to develop it into a “prime piece of real estate” & a “beautiful holiday resort” for rich Americans!

These are the homes & ancestral land of the Palestinian people who have been living there for over 2, 000 years.

This is the land in which their loved ones & families have been caged, butchered & buried by your murderous Zionist friends for the last 76 years.

This is the place in which millions of them have fought & died for the last seven decades in order to preserve their honor, dignity, heritage, history & identity & leave something for generations of their children yet unborn.

You went further by publicly stating that you were “committed to owning Gaza” & that “we will let other countries develop parts of it: it will be beautiful. People can come from all over the world to live there.”
In conclusion you said “the Palestinians would have no right to return when they leave”.

As Ambassador A. M. Shawesh, the Palestinian Ambassador to India, rightly said, ”When a real estate developer rules the world, no one will be spared, everyone will follow”.

Your lack of empathy for the plight of the women & children of Gaza is appalling.

Your inability to feel their pain & acknowledge their tears betrays the fact that you lack compassion.
You not only want to take the little that is left of it from them but you also want to send the 1.6 million Gazans that have been left alive to Egypt & Jordan (both of whom have outrightly rejected the proposal) & turn their homeland into a holiday spot filled with American hotels, American holiday homes, American escorts & American casinos.

You fail to appreciate the fact that to stand with Gaza is to stand with humanity.

This sentiment is shared by the majority of nations, including Ireland, South Africa, Brazil, China, Russia, Iran & Spain, who have taken the lead in this cause.

It is not only the Muslims and Arabs that feel this way: His Eminence Pope Francis and the majority of Christians throughout the world do as well.

Killing innocent women & children, subjecting them to mass murder, ethnic cleansing & genocide & forcefully displacing them & taking over their land cannot be justified under ANY circumstances.
Is this so difficult to comprehend?

Nigerian position

You will recall that Vice-President Kashim Shettima eloquently stated the unassailable position of the Nigerian people when he said the following at the United Nations General Assembly: ”Today we are all witnesses to the heart-wrenching situation in Gaza & other Palestinian Territories. Justice is antithetical to revenge. Freedom is an inalienable right & a natural entitlement that cannot be denied to any people. The Palestinian people deserve their independence. They deserve to have a home of their own on territories already recognised by this very Assembly & by international law which is being routinely ignored.”

His words reflect the position of no less than 149 countries that recognise the State of Palestine as an independent, sovereign nation.

I am proud of the fact that my country has taken such a noble stand and, unlike yours, has chosen to stand for peace & justice.

I have always admired you because of what I believed to be your reverence for God, your Christian values, your stated intention of pulling America out of foreign conflicts, your rapprochement with Russia, China & North Korea, your opposition to the globalists & your support for the nationalists.

Again I have always respected you because of the way you stood strong and proud in the face of the persecution that you were subjected to by the Deep State.

The truth

Yet despite my respect I am constrained to tell you the truth.

This is not the time for platitudes or spouting the cowardly words of a quisling & lickspittle.
I must be candid.

Permit me to begin by saying that your proposition for Gaza is an expression of unadulterated evil.
Whilst others are rightly talking about establishing a two-state solution where both the Palestinians & Israelis can live in peace you are talking about America taking over Gaza for itself & forcefully acquiring its offshore gas & oil reserves.

Is there no end to your greed? I

Is your insatiable desire to pillage & steal other people’s land & wipe them off the face of the earth just to gain access to their natural resources not of the devil?

Is this not the same thing that your white American forefathers did to the Red Indians?

Is this not what Pharaoh, Genghis Khan, Atilla the Hun, Christopher Columbus & Adolf Hitler did to others in their time?

Did they not annihilate their victims, driving many into extinction, subject them to a holocaust and take their land?

Is it not the same violent, butchering, slaughtering, conquering, plundering & pillaging spirit that drives you all?

Then come your puerile gaffes & brazen threats which are reminiscent of that of a school yard bully.

For example when you say things like “all hell will break loose if Hamas does not release all the hostages by Saturday”, you betray the fact that you do not know that Hamas is far stronger today in terms of resolve and numbers than it was before October 7.

This came as a consequence of the massive number of Palestinian women & children that were butchered post-October 7 by Israel in the name of retaliation.

Hamas have been energised by their quest for vengeance & if they had 10,000 fighters before October 7 they now have at least 200,000.

The more innocent Palestinans you kill the stronger Hamas will get.

This is why Gaza has been described as the “graveyard of imperialist delusions”.

Worse still the “hell” that you threaten to unleash may well engulf Israel and the entire Middle East.

Surely an attempt to ensure that the ceasefire is not broken & that negotiations for the release of hostages on all sides continue is better than issuing threats which may well endanger the lives of the very hostages that you are trying to save.

Meddlesomeness

Your obsession with meddling in the affairs of other nations & laying claim to their territory, whether it be Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal, the Gulf of Mexico, South Africa, Colombia or Gaza, is symptomatic of a troubled mind.

If you are not threatening other countries with taking over their land or withdrawing aid, you are threatening them with trade tariffs in an attempt to bring them to their knees.

Worse of all your disdain for immigrants & desire to send them back to where they came from in chains without any humanity & dignity or lock them up in Gantanamo Bay whilst at the same time offering white South Africans refugee status is shameful.

Racism

It also provides us with a graphic expression of your inherent racism.

Your aversion to immigrants & categorisation of them as being “criminals, gangsters, murderers & mentally deranged people” is shameful.

Permit me to remind you that you are the grandson of a German immigrant, the son of a Scottish immigrant, the husband of a Slovenian immigrant & the ex-husband of a Czech immigrant.

You were a beneficiary of America’s immigration policies yet you hate immigrants with a passion & seek to not only stop them from entering your country but also to deny foreigners that are born there citizenship rights & abolish the ‘birth right law’ which is embedded in your Constitution.

Such is your contempt for immigrants that Pope Francis was constrained to say the following in order to ameliorate the pain and damage that your vitriol has caused.

He said, ”I exhort all the faithful of the Catholic Church not to give in to narratives that discriminate against and cause unnecessary suffering to our migrant & refugee brothers & sisters.”

‘Making America Great Again’ does not mean destroying the aspirations of others & does not give you the right to intimidate, threaten, subjugate & conquer the world!

You would do well to remember that it was the collective prayers of millions to God that delivered you from the assassin’s bullet on two separate occasions, that stopped you from being sent to jail & that got you to where you are today.

Those same prayers will bring you to your knees if you refuse to change course.
May God guide you.

•Chief Femi Fani-Kayode is the Sadaukin Shinkafi, the Wakilin Doka Potiskum, a former Minister of Culture and Tourism and a former Minister of Aviation

After 58 days, the two chambers of the National Assembly concluded legislative work on the 2025 budget. They passed a unified appropriation bill of N54.99 trillion. This is a record on many levels. The most obvious is that, in Naira terms, the passed budget is our highest so far—about twice the size of the N28.77 trillion appropriated as the main budget for 2024. The 2025 budget has had quite an odyssey within two months of being: the initial proposal that President Bola Tinubu tabled before the parliament on 18^th December 2024 was N49.74 trillion, which he bumped to N54.2 trillion via a letter to the National Assembly on February 5^th; the legislators wholly and swiftly agreed to the president’s request but added N700 billion when they passed the budget a week later, bringing the approved expenditure to the record N54.99 trillion. 

My intervention today will not be on the full budget. The disaggregated details are not yet publicly available and the appropriation bill is yet to be signed by the president. I will confine myself to some of the issues that the budget process has thrown up and to some of the headline figures that I have gleaned from media reports.

Let’s start with some of the numbers. As reported widely in the media, the N54.99 trillion expenditure is allocated as follows: N3.65 trillion to Statutory Transfers; N13.06 trillion to Recurrent (non-debt) Expenditure; N14.32 trillion to Debt Service; and N23.96 trillion to Capital Expenditure. There are a few things to unpack here.

On a positive note, the legislators allocated N300 billion to address the expected shortfall to our health sector from the pause of aid by the US government. This is part of the N700 billion that the parliamentarians added to the amended proposal from the president. Those who took the initiative to make this emergency provision should be commended. Health is critical. On a related note, we should be proactive in cutting our dependence on other countries as a way of reducing our vulnerabilities and increasing our leverage in the unfolding world order. That N300 billion is just 0.55% of the approved budget, an indication that Nigeria can easily wean itself off aid and insulate itself from the blackmail/arm-twisting that sometimes goes with it.

It is noteworthy that there are some significant differences in the aggregate figures in the version submitted by the executive and the version passed by the parliament (even after accounting for the addition by both parties). The president proposed N14.85 trillion as capital expenditure, but the legislators allocated N23.96 trillion to the same expenditure category. This is N9.11 trillion extra, an increase of 61%. This also means that capital budget (rather than debt service) now has the highest allocation, accounting for 43.57% of the approved total expenditure for 2025.

On the surface, this should be a good development: it could be read to mean that critical infrastructure is being prioritised. It is also being spun as such (even when not everything under capital is actually infrastructure or that everything termed infrastructure is really critical). But it appears something doesn’t add up. Even if we assume that the entire N5.23 trillion added by both the president (N4.53 trillion) and the legislators (N700 billion) goes entirely to capital appropriation, that should only take capital to N20.08 trillion. There is still a gap of N3.88 trillion to take the capital budget to N23.96 trillion. Most likely the difference is from the reduction from other expenditure heads, and that may have negative implications somewhere. The full budget will address this mystery.

However, it is possible that this is part of the customary optical game: let it appear as if we are allocating a lot to capital expenditure as opposed to awkward/embarrassing budget heads like debt service. But trumpeting that capital has the highest allocation is a game of self-deceit. Budgets are traditionally broken into two components: recurrent and capital. If that metric is adopted, capital even at 44% is still in the shadows of recurrent. Also, it is more useful to note that historically capital budget performs poorly in terms of actual release and utilisation (and this is not because of the convenient excuse of constraints imposed by the public procurement process).

In its original proposal of N49.74 trillion, the executive allocated N4.44 trillion to statutory transfers and N16.33 trillion to debt service. But in the approved budget of N54.99 trillion, the legislators reduced statutory transfers to N3.65 trillion and debt service to N14.32 trillion. As the name indicates, statutory transfers are statutory, sort of a first-line charge. It will be interesting to see where the legislators saw about N800 billion that they could shave off (will be interesting if it is from their own allocation). Debt service is seen as hard expenditure, something you need to do except you want to be in trouble. It comprises mainly the principal of and the interests on loans that fall due plus a little aside for the sinking fund. It will be good to know how the legislators are able to save the country more than N2 trillion in debt service. This can’t be from taking out the sinking fund (which was just N430.27 billion). It will be good to know what the trade-offs and the implications of the reduced debt service are, if any. Or was the initial debt service overestimated?

The legislators said the fiscal deficit in the approved 2025 budget will be N13.08 trillion. This was the same figure the president had proposed. I trawled the media, without success, for the projected revenue in the approved budget. But we can extrapolate that the projected revenue is N41.91 trillion since we know the total approved expenditure (N54.99 trillion) and the approved deficit (N13.08 trillion). We can have a separate discussion about how realistic this is, given how revenue projection has always underperformed. We may also think about what actual revenue shortfall may do to the eventual deficit, and how that is likely to further lock us into the vicious cycle of more debt and higher provisioning for debt service. We can deal with that in the future. In the meantime, there is also something that doesn’t add up here. The initial revenue projection by the president was N36.35 trillion and he requested that N4.53 trillion be added to the revenue column, which gives a total of N40.88 trillion. It seems that what the president projected as revenue (based on what is in the public domain) is N1.03 trillion less than what the legislators approved as projected revenue. A shortfall of N1 trillion can’t be from rounded figures. Maybe the full budget will provide illumination.

However, there is a more interesting dimension on the deficit issue: deficit-to-GDP. In his speech on 18^th December 2024, the president stated that the N13.08 trillion envisaged as deficit would constitute 3.89% of Nigeria’s GDP, which is still higher than the 3% bar set in the Fiscal Responsibility Act but significantly better than the ratio for preceding years. As stated earlier, the legislators agreed with the president on the amount of the budget deficit (N13.08 trillion) but put the deficit as 1.52% of the GDP. This is a material difference. It is either there is a mistake somewhere or the legislators are using a different GDP figure. If N13.08 trillion is 1.52% of GDP, that means Nigeria’s GDP is N860.53 trillion. That will be quite a leap.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s nominal GDP was N234.43 trillion in 2023. The sum of the GDP figures for Q1 to Q3 of 2024 is N196.26 trillion, which means full-year GDP at best will be below N300 trillion (in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook, IMF estimated N302.18 trillion as Nigeria’s GDP for 2024). It is possible the legislators have been briefed about the rebased GDP numbers and they are using that as a basis for their computation even when the rebased GDP is yet to be officially released. Assuming this is the case and putting aside the propriety of such an approach, this implies a tripling of Nigeria’s GDP merely on account of rebasing. This will be quite something. And when such is applied to the metrics that government officials fancy (debt-to-GDP, deficit-to-GDP), it is likely to look like a clumsy walk to a predetermined answer.  

While the legislators were about concluding the process of passing the 2025 budget, the president sent them what could be classified as an amendment or a supplement to the budget proposal. He did it via a letter, which was read by the presiding officers of both chambers. The president stated the total extra revenue and the global sources (N1.21 trillion from Customs; N1.49 trillion from FIRS; and N1.82 trillion from Government Owned Enterprises—GOEs), and he proposed how they should be allocated, including N1 trillion to the solid mineral sector, N1.5 trillion for the recapitalisation of the Bank of Agriculture, N500 billion for the recapitalisation of the Bank of Industry (BOI) and significant sums to key infrastructure projects and security institutions. The president said this was to demonstrate his administration’s commitment to “inclusive growth and security.” It is difficult to argue against the need for such.

But there are a few issues. The first issue is about process, and it is in two parts. The first part was reflected in the interesting exchange between Hon. Benjamin Kalu (Deputy Speaker and presiding officer on the day the president’s request was read in the House of Representatives), and Hon. Kingsley Chinda (the House Minority Leader). Hon. Chinda stated that it was improper for a budget from the executive to be read by a legislator but Hon. Kalu maintained otherwise, and overruled the opposition leader.

The exchange could pass for the usual face-off between the ruling party and the opposition. This is mostly done for the camera, and is normally resolved in favour of the majority (with the minority merely allowed to have its say). But the exchange strikes at a core procedural issue around presentation of budgets, including additions, supplements and virements, the level of details such requests should contain (lumpsum versus detailed breakdown) and the amount of time needed to study and process them. In the public sector, both substance and process are important. In fact, government is largely about process.

The second issue is about the proper order of things. The budget presentation is usually preceded by the approval of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)/Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP). The MTEF contains the key assumptions and the broad outlines for the proposed budget. But assumptions and outlooks can change. That is why amendment to the MTEF is allowed. After the president requested for an increase in the 2025 expenditure, the legislators should have insisted for the MTEF to be presented again and should have given the amendment expedited treatment. Amending the MTEF after passing the budget does not seem to pass the smell test. Again, process, process, process.  

The request by the president brings to fore the curious case of the changing allocations to the solid minerals sector in this budget cycle. The president made a passionate case for extra N1 trillion for the sector, as many others in and out of government routinely do. My sense is that many of us miss the memo about how the solid minerals sector is structured differently from the oil and gas sector. State participation is limited to licensing and regulation and the revenue streams are restricted to fees, royalty, taxes and maybe fines, all of which are mostly paltry. We need to open up the sector and make it more attractive to serious players and incentivise processing/value-addition (what industry players term fancifully as beneficiation). That will be good for jobs, for taxes and for increased contributions to GDP. But we need to make peace with the fact that solid mineral is not going to be our big-ticket revenue stream.

Ploughing N1 trillion (almost 2% of the entire budget) into that sector in one year does not look like optimal resource allocation to me. I may be wrong. But the real point is the dramatic shifts in the allocation to the sector in the 2025 budget. It was reported that the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Mr. Dele Alake, complained openly to the joint committee of the National Assembly that his ministry had requested for N531 billion for capital expenditure for the year but was allocated only N9.9 billion in the proposed budget.

“This is unacceptable, as it will hinder any significant investment in exploration,” Alake said. “We seek the support of the National Assembly for a radical upward review of the budget.” This is as bad a look as it can get, as those on the executive side have ample opportunities to make their case, especially during bilateral budget defence with the Budget Office and the Ministry of Budget and National Planning. In any case, the joint committee, with dramatic flair, rejected the budget proposed for the ministry by the executive.

The Senate Committee later recommended an increase in the capital budget of the ministry from N9.9 billion to N539 billion. This is mind-blowing. A legislative committee would contemplate increasing the proposed capital budget of a ministry by more than half a trillion Naira or by more than 5000%. It may be of interest that the capital allocation for the ministry in the 2024 Appropriation Act was N26.9 billion. Even if there is a compelling case for a major increase, did anyone bother about the absorptive capacity for a 20-fold hike?

I have worked in both the legislative and executive arms of government at the federal level, and I have been tracking budgets for a while. If I tell you I have seen anything like this before, I will be lying. But more was to come. The president further upped the ante: in his 5^th February letter, he assigned N1 trillion to the solid minerals sector “to support economic diversification by unlocking the potential of Nigeria’s vast solid mineral resources, which remain an untapped revenue stream and a vital pillar of non-oil growth.”

Another issue is that there is a serious discussion that we need to have about the best way to use additional revenues. It is not immediately clear whether the N4.53 trillion that the president asked to be allocated to solid minerals and other areas is excess revenue from last year or projected extra revenue for this year. Whatever it is, it might be more prudent to use any extra revenue to reduce budget deficit than to increase immediate expenditure. This is because the deficit we kept has to be funded, and from borrowing, which would have to be paid and with interests. This, in turn, will increase future deficits and the amount to allocate to debt service. We cannot borrow our way out of this hole, and it is unconscionable to keep kicking the can down the road and, worse, to be mortgaging the future of the next generation. We desperately need to rein in deficits and borrowing. We need fiscal consolidation like yesterday.

The last issue I want to raise is the dip in disclosure in certain areas. A few weeks ago, I highlighted some notable omissions and incongruities in the proposed 2025 budget. No coherent answers have been provided. One omission that still sticks out for me is the non-disclosure of the budget of the GOEs. It is conceivable that the legislators received the proposed budgets of the GOEs and did a thorough job in scrutinising them. But there is no budget that should be obscured from public view. If the budgets of sensitive MDAs—including the presidency and security agencies—can be made public, what then is the defence for keeping the budgets of the GOEs off-limit?  

I have found only two lines for GOEs in the proposed budget: N1.91 trillion for recurrent and N820.91 billion for capital. By contrast, the Budget Office of the Federation made public the 2024 proposed budgets of 26 professional bodies and 63 GOEs. The latter, a 282-page document still available on Budget Office’s website, provided granular details and a window into the profligacy and misapplication of scarce public resources going on in these entities. It is likely that a decision was made to stop the disclosure of the budgets of the GOEs because of the mild public outrage of last year. But these entities are still public, not private. And the budgets of the presidency and others attract constant reactions from the public and they still get published. So, what is special about these agencies? Once a standard is established, we need to maintain, not subvert, it. Transparency in the management of public resources is a virtue that we should never go back on.