The youths plan a public protest. The land has been feverish with hunger and suffering.  The grounds for a protest can’t be more legitimate and compelling. The cost of living has become punishing.

The weak naira has pauperised everyone, and the poor have been left without hope. The new government arrived with the old cluelessness. Its mode is the boring Business As Usual.

The youths believe that besides pervasive ineptitude, the political class has been chronically aloof and wasteful. Rather than engage the youths, the political class has opted for scaremongering, delegitimisation and demonisation. The government is going for the kitchen sink.

The most troubling tactic is the equation of peaceful protest with violence. Some elders have been co-opted to warn the young not to partake in the protests because they have information that the planners of the protests want to burn the country. Even during the military regimes, students were allowed to protest. The military dictatorships, striving to be seen as humane, didn’t employ this disingenuous tactic.

If every government treated public protests as inevitably destructive then the citizens’ right to protest would have been effectively abolished long ago. It’s heart-wrenching to see politicians and former Rights activists who championed protests under the military say only ugly things about the right to protest. Their forgetfulness is painful. They are carefreely painting protesters as arsonists and vandals even before the protests have started.

 It’s been a hard watch these last few days. Security agencies have been addressing press conferences to warn protesters. Those whose duty it is to protect protesters are announcing in advance that they are incapable of performing those duties. The situation is pathetic. At these press conferences, no effort is made to give the protesters the benefit of the doubt. Almost all the security agencies have exhibited a blanket disdain for protesters. Rather than engage in this shameful and self-humiliating scaremongering, the federal government should outlaw the right to protest. In North Korea, nobody can protest. That’s a more honest path. Politicians are always slippery. So seeing self-anointed progressives eulogise the right to protest in one breath and in the next send out messages that protests will destroy the country isn’t all that shocking.  But watching noblemen sink into barefaced lying to deny the youths a voice has been unbearable.

It hasn’t stopped at scaremongering. When the government isn’t gathering and persuading traditional and religious leaders to help it delegitimise protests, it’s allowing its officials to engage in naked bigotry and divisiveness. Not long ago, a special adviser to the president pointed accusing fingers at Peter Obi and his supporters. He had no evidence. All he sought was to drive a wedge between ethnic groups to have the protests truncated. The people paid with taxpayers’ funds to promote national unity have sunk into political skulduggery. This recourse to political agbeorism may not end with fishing for advance scapegoats. It has the potential to set up a conflagration between ethnic groups if the peaceful protests are hijacked and derailed by thugs, as is being speculated.

Before this government, opposition parties used to champion or promote public protests against bad governance at the centre. In 2012, President Tinubu and his comrades led pretests against the then President Jonathan, who had partially removed fuel subsidies. Then, it was the duty of the opposition, acting as an electable alternative, to use protests to keep the ruling government in check. Today,  protests are taboo. Even opposition leaders are forbidden by bigots in the boys’ quarters of power to engage in any protests.

Nothing has been spared in this attempt to stop the protests. Now, some local priests in Lagos have announced that they will be engaging in a spiritual cleansing called Oro for 15 days. In other words, they have casually outlawed any movements in the evenings for the ten-day period the planners of the protests plan to engage in peaceful protests. The Lagos State Govt has said it wasn’t consulted. Yet, it doesn’t intend to condemn or stop the Oro priests. The Constitution explicitly states that citizens have the right to reside wherever they like and to move freely. Such a constitutional right can only be curtailed by the government in pursuit of overriding public good. The idea that some priestesses or cults can wake up and declare a part of the state out of bounds to residents at certain times without the approval of the state government is ridiculous. To employ such arbitrariness to sabotage the right of free citizens to protest against bad governance is the final descent into anarchy.

These bad precedents being laid cheerfully may seem innocuous. But once they prove effective, they will be exploited on a larger scale to destroy our democracy. It’s noteworthy that Oro is making a second ignoble entrance. During last year’s elections, it was used to scare away and disenfranchise voters who were not indigenes of Ikorodu. This time, it appears it will be used to undermine the protests. Who knows what next this cleansing process might be used to corrode? If some local priests in every town in this country can wake up and prohibit the movement of people as long as they like in the name of one religion or the other, then we are in a mess.

During the Endsars protest, some agents of that government mobilised counter-protesters with cudgels to chase and hound protesters in certain parts of the country. Janjaweed style. They called it fighting fire with fire. If those who protested against the  Obasanjo government in the early 2000s were chased away by machete-wielding thugs, all those protests that shaped our political culture during the Adams Oshiomhole NLC days wouldn’t have held. Perhaps we might have killed this protest culture many years ago. Perhaps the ruling APC might have remained in the opposition forever as the PDP had bragged.

 If our political leaders no longer believe that protests are part of the democratic culture, they should say it aloud. So that everybody can allow the country to slip into a one-party state, and we all watch peacefully to see where we will end. Since our political leaders now think that protests can never be peaceful and are inherently violent, they should outlaw protests so that the citizens can understand the boundaries of our democracy. We can help them by forgetting that the president and his party leaders led protests in the past. They need not subject themselves to this dehumanising level of hypocrisy. Senator Akpabio can arrange laws and constitutional amendments, like fast food. The governors run the state legislatures like rubber stamps. So they can help with a lightning constitutional alteration.  We can quickly amend the constitution and repeal the right to protest until further notice. That is more honest than the scaremongering, shameless witch-hunting, and the bastardisation of a cleansing process like Oro.

Amid heavy gridlock, motorists and commuters in Lagos lamented over the sudden scarcity of fuel, popularly called petrol.

This has resulted in transport fares increase by commercial bus drivers — danfos and koropes — within the city.

Consequently, fuel queues have resurfaced with most filling stations shut, as motorists struggle with the skyrocketing fuel prices. It has gone as high as N850 in some filling stations.

This is coming barely six days to the commencement of the planned nationwide protest over economic challenges.

By last Friday, yesterday, fuel queues had started to get longer within the metropolis, with few fuel stations dispensing.

N950 per litre

On Saturday, besides Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPCL Limited Ltd.-branded fuel stations selling at N650 per litre, other independent marketers are selling between N850 to N950.

It was discovered that many filling stations which seemed to have run out of stocks, were seen under lock and key.

Others shut their gates against motorists and other users of petroleum products who were hoping to get some.

With those stations selling the product to buyers, there were long queues as panic buying continued. This resulted in gridlock along the roads where filling stations were dispensing.

Men of the Lagos State Emergency Management Authorities, LASTMA, deployed seemed overwhelmed as they could not effectively contain the high influx of motorists searching for the product.

… enter black marketers

As a result, black marketers have taken advantage of the situation. They were selling the product to desperate motorists at exorbitant rates of up to ₦1,000 to ₦1,400 per litre.

Black market dealers were seen hawking the product at Egbeda, Ikotun, LASU-Iba Road, Ikeja, Agege, among others.

A danfo driver, simply identified Mr.Jude Akpan, who spoke to Vanguard, lamented that he spends twice the usual amount on fuel to fill his vehicle for one trip.

“So he has passed the cost on to passengers.

“I bought N850 per litre from a filling station this morning after several hours in the long queue.

“I bought 20 litres for N17,000, which can hardly take me two trips from Ikotun to Oshodi.”

Investigation showed that Ikotun to Egbeda, which used to be N200, is now N500, while Iyana-Ipaja is N700, depending on the bargaining power of passengers.

Also, vehicle owners and other fuel users lamented the scarcity. They said it could worsen in the coming weeks if authorities did not address the cause of the shortage.

Vanguard News

The International Testing Agency (ITA) has handed Cynthia Ogunsemilore, Nigeria’s boxer, a provisional suspension for testing positive for a banned substance ahead of her opening fight at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

In a statement in the early hours of Sunday, ITA said Ogunsemilore tested positive for furosemide in an out-of-competition doping test collected on Thursday.

Furosemide belongs to a group of medicines called loop diuretics (also known as water pills). The substance is given to help treat fluid retention (edema) and swelling that is caused by congestive heart failure, liver disease, kidney disease, or other medical conditions.

Furosemide is included on the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) on its prohibited list. The drug is categorised as a diuretic and a masking agent, which can prevent the detection of other performance-enhancing substances.

“The athlete has been informed of the case and has been provisionally suspended until the resolution of the matter in line with the World Anti-Doping Code and the International Olympic Committee Anti-Doping Rules,” the statement reads.

“This means that the athlete is prevented from competing, training, coaching, or participating in any activity, during the Olympic Games Paris 2024.

“The athlete has the right to challenge the imposition of the provisional suspension before the Court of Arbitration for Sport – Anti-Doping Division. The athlete also has the right to request the analysis of the B-sample.”

Ogunsemilore was due to face Taiwan’s Wu Shih Yi in a round-of-16 bout on Tuesday.

The development reduced the Nigerian boxing contingent to one after Dolapo Omole pulled out of the Games due to injuries.

[TheCable]

A frica’s prime moneyman, Mr. Aliko Dangote of Nigeria, has recently changed from business suit and kaftan to battle fatigue. For a man whose visibility is defined by money and huge investments, this sudden change of costume is important. Ordinarily, Dangote as a person and a brand has become synonymous with huge factories and countless trucks traversing different African countries bearing the products of his factories. A big business man can make rowdy media appearances to project his presence and market his enterprises in urbane gatherings of politicians and business elite.

As a rule, Mr. Dangote steers clear of contentious utterances and controversial gatherings. But he gets occasionally dragged into dog fights over turfs and market shares for his products. His instincts may not be overtly political nor is he the controversial  type. Of course he cannot but contend with the toxic terrain of Nigerian politics especially the seasonal uproar of partisan fray and name calling. There is always the silent question: “who does Dangote support”, a question that no one can answer easily. 

The man sees his main business as minding his business. His political footprints remain hazy just as his political footsteps are often muted. A few years back when the Obasanjo presidency was scouting for a successor to the bullish general, some PDP political big wigs sent emissaries to Dangote to see if he would want to play Berlusconi. The man turned them down.

In recent days however, the troubling Nigerian situation is revealing a different Dangote. As it turns out, the man can fight to defend his space and interests: “I have been a fighter all my life. So, I am not afraid of fights nor am I afraid of anyone…” On the matters thrown up by Nigeria’s recent economic trends and travails, Dangote is beginning to make his views known and his interests clearly defined. This is not his first turf fight. He dueled with his fellow Kano man, Abdul Samad Rabiu of BUA cement over cement market share and retail prices. Similarly, he fought the Kogi State government on taxation and land rights issues over his massive Obajana cement factory.

In the last few days, Mr. Dangote could be seen as having jettisoned  a business suit and kaftan to literally don a battle fatigue. He is in a fighting mood. Not only that, he has jumped into the murky trench of Nigeria’s public discourse. He now wants to be heard on the happenings in his country. And why not? Dangote is first and foremost a citizen of the federal republic of Nigeria. He is entitled to his views and to a perspective on the state of the nation especially the economy in which he, more than anyone else, is deeply invested. As a major investor and strategic economic driver, Mr. Dangote should know where the Nigerian economic shoe is pinching most painfully. If the Nigerian economic cookie crumbles, Dangote and his bankers are more likely to be burnt beyond recognition. The rest of us are not likely to go walk off with slight bruises because of our dependency on one Dangote product or the other. If an economic  tsunami hits the Dangote brand and its expansive network of enterprises, the Nigerian economy is likely to take a major hit. Such a consequential citizen cannot remain silent if he sees his interests threatened by government’s rough manners.

So, it is understandable that Dangote is presently in the trench of public discourse. He is firing  in feverish defense of not only his business interests but also the fate, fortunes and future of his fellow oligarchs who are all embroiled in the mess in the Nigerian economy.  When politicians roughen the economic landscape, it is often the oligarchs with huge stakes in the economy who bear the brunt.

Initially, Dangote chose to take on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy somersaults and endless tinkering with major indices in the troubled economy. In particular, the astronomical interest rates that keep going higher every week has troubled major players in the economy. Dangote had cause to openly criticize the rising interest rates. He was unequivocal,  insisting that the  high rate is antithetical to economic recovery and growth: “ Nobody can create jobs with an interest rate of 30 percent.” He went further to argue that the national economy cannot recover let alone grow in such a high interest  rate environment. Criticisms of the incumbent government’s economic policies  can be expected to come from regular boardroom spokespersons and textbook professional economists. But coming from a pivotal oligarch and consequential economic factor like Dangote, some are likely to sniff politics in what is ordinarily an honest business advisory. Moreso, Dangote has featured in every economy-related committee that President has hurriedly put together to help make sense of the economic mess he is confronted with. The junction where politics and economics meet and mix is a very dark place. Honest commentators can be lost there if they are not careful.

By far the most consequential battles in Dangote’s new costume is the series of exchanges between him and the Nigerian oil industry mafia. In the run up to the roll out of the products of the new Dangote mega refinery, all manner of Mickey Mouse debates have erupted. First is the controversy over the appropriate pricing of the anticipated products and their comparative quality. The regulatory agency, the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has implicitly said that the quality of diesel from the Dangote refinery may be substandard. No complaint has come from consumers of the product so far. There has also not been a laboratory verification of the products from the Dangote refinery. Interestingly, the association of fuel importers has joined the regulator in questioning the quality of the products from the new refinery, including even the gasoline that is yet to become available at the pumps. Clearly, some vested interests are threatened by the imminent reduction or eventual elimination of fuel imports once the Dangote refinery goes into full steam production.

In even nastier segments of the verbal brawl , Mr. Dangote has alleged that officials of the NNPCL may have established blending plants for petroleum products in off shore locations like Malta to sustain their unrestricted importation of petroleum products into Nigeria. In rapid response, the leadership of the NNPCL  has denied the charge of off- shore blending plants owned by their staff. The NNPCL chief executive has not however denied the existence of such plants in Malta or anywhere near the route to Nigeria. He is more concerned with exonerating his staff from Dangote’s charge.

However, latest figures from international energy trading platforms indicate that there has been a 43-fold increase in the volume of petroleum products imported into Nigeria from Malta. In fact, there has been a 342% increase in in such imports in 2023 with a value of $2.08 billion. Therefore in spite of feverish denials by the NNPCL leadership that their staff do not own blending plants in Malta, the volume of imports of petroleum products from Malta to Nigeria raise questions that support the kernel of Mr. Dangote’s allegations.

The back and forth on the relationship  between the NNPCL and Dangote over the new refinery has gone into previously unknown areas like equity holding in the ownership of the refinery. While the public was previously made to believe that the federal government through the NNPCL held an equity of 20% in the Dangote refinery, it has come from Dangote that the refinery has paid up substantially on the government’s equity down to around 7% now and no more.

Worried by what he considers an outright intent of the management of the NNPCL to undermine the new refinery, Dangote has offered to sell off the huge refinery to the NNPCL if they can pay him off. The implied nuance of that challenge is that the refinery will go down the way of government owned refineries which have crippled domestic fuel supply for over 40 years. “Let them(NNPCL) buy me out and run the refinery the best way they can. They have labelled me a monopolist…That is an incorrect and unfair allegation, but it’s okay. If they buy me out, at least their so-called monopolist would be out of the way.”

Curiously, the attacks on the Dangote refinery were not raised while the factory was under construction. They were not raised all the time that the NNPCL was touted as a 20% equity holder in the refinery project. Now that the refinery is about to threaten the continued importation of petroleum products, the regulators have joined forces with the fuel import and fuel subsidy cartel that have joined forces to sack the Nigerian treasury.

The ongoing nasty brawl between Mr. Dangote and the Nigerian  oil industry mafia anchored in the NNPCL is more than casual. It raises far reaching fundamental issues on our national economy and the forces that have kept us mired in stasis. The prospect that the Dangote refinery would end the four decades long regime of fuel imports has unsettled vested interests.

The cartels that have feasted on massive fuel imports over the years are indeed powerful. In collaboration with their cohorts in the NNPCL, this mafia has grounded all government owned refineries and enthroned the regime of fuel  imports and subsidy whose removal has ground the economy to a halt.  All available statistics indicate that with the Dangote refinery coming into full steam operation, Nigeria will virtually cease to be an importer of finished petroleum products, a feat that only Algeria and Libya have achieved.

In addition to becoming self -sufficient in petroleum products, the Dangote refinery is billed to become an exporter of petroleum products to other African countries, saving us much needed foreign exchange. Because of its size and sophistication the Dangote refinery is projected to compete favourably against refineries in Europe some of which currently export products to Nigeria.

In a sense then, the nasty exchanges between Dangote and the high priests of the Nigerian oil and gas establishment is also a battle over economic nationalism versus a long- standing dependency on external sources for petroleum products. This is a confrontation in which self -sufficiency and nationalism hold a clear advantage at this point in time. Dangote’s corporate interest now happens to coincide with an overriding national interest and we have no choice than to side with our nation’s best enlightened interest.

The contention by the regulators that the coming on stream of the Dangote refinery implies the empowerment of a monopoly in the making is neither here nor there. What ought to concern the regulators is the quality and pricing of the products of the refinery. The monopoly-like situation has been created by the ineptitude of the NNPCL which has grounded all our refineries for decades. It is better to have a monopoly that saves us foreign exchange, employs many Nigerians, guarantees steady supply of petroleum products and dampens prices over time.

It is only proper that government empowers and emboldens domestic capital to assume the commanding heights of the economy as has happened in other free market economies that have grown to lead the world. The United States was built by a few bold leading capitalist pioneers of industry like the Rockefellers, the Fords, Duponts, Vanderbilt, J.P Morgan, Carnegie etc. In South Korea, it was the deliberate empowerment of the Cherbols- Samsung, Goldster (LG) and Hyundai that launched the country into the age of modern prosperity.

In the Nigerian context, Dangote has been in the forefront of patriotic capitalism.

Over the decades, Dangote has become the most consequential domestic investor and brand in Nigeria. With some of the biggest and productive industries in major daily needs like cement, tomato puree, salt, fertilizer, flour and now petroleum products, Dangote has become a strategic brand with a domineering presence and footprint all over the Nigerian economic space. Beyond the Nigerian space, Dangote has become a major investor in a number of African countries with cement factories located in these countries. Symbolically, while the NNPCL was busy de-marketing the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, Mr. Dangote was being given a red carpet reception in Gabon where the president was literally inviting Mr. Dangote to come and invest in his country. The subtle message is that Nigeria does not seem to value its own citizens as investors. If a huge investor like Dangote can be harassed by our own officialdom, what happens to smaller investors? What message are we sending out to the external investors that our governments spend a fortune traveling round the world to court and attract?  

In fairness to Mr. Dangote, he does not have to be so massively invested in large industries in Nigeria. He could have spared himself the headache of the “luggage economy of factories, machinery, nuts, bolts , brick and mortar  and huge industrial complexes and vast real estate. He could have simply remained a money changer, using his access to authorities to round -tripping foreign exchange through Nigeria’s porous banking system. But he has chosen to build huge factories, to produce the basic everyday goods that most Nigerians need, to provide employment to many Nigerians directly and indirectly  and carry the risk of running factories that depend on our unreliable power system, treacherous security and decrepit infrastructure. For all this, Mr. Dangote deserves better than the distractions and insults now coming from the NNPCL based  oil and gas mafia and their political enablers.

By coming out upfront to engage Mr. Dangote in this disgraceful exchange over a refinery that is yet to become fully operational, the oil and gas regulators in Nigeria have exposed a major source of Nigeria’s backwardness.  The regulators are the face of our vampire deep state which uses bureaucratic blackmail and corrupt vested interest to sabotage most patriotic and progressive initiatives.

The government should bring its gravity to halt this ugly exchange. We need to protect the Dangote refinery and indeed the image of Mr. Dangote as Nigeria’s most consequential local investor. To keep silent and allow this infamy to proceed any further is to lend weight to speculations that Mr. Dangote may be paying for some unstated political sin. In matters of national interest and national economic survival, some considerations are higher than narrow partisanship and dark machinations anchored on the selfish interests of the high and mighty.

Nigerians have been invited to troop to the streets in their millions from Thursday, August 1, to protest the harsh economic situation following the dramatic rise in the cost of living in the last one year. The protest is slated to last for two weeks. The demands are not very clear yet but the theme is centred on the hunger in the land. In just one year, diesel price doubled, petrol price tripled, official exchange rates tripled and “Band A” electricity tariffs tripled. Prices of foodstuffs and medicines have doubled or tripled or even quadrupled. This is by a distance one of the worst cost of living crises in the history of Nigeria — and, trust me, we have had quite a history in the last four decades.

I suspect that the inspiration for the planned protest came from Kenya, where citizens trooped to the streets to oppose proposed tax rises. Not surprisingly, the mass action became violent and 40 protesters lost their lives, with hundreds injured. Although President William Ruto — who had incredibly proposed to tax bread (who does that?) — beat a retreat and made concessions, protesters have refused to vacate the streets. They are now demanding that he should resign. At this point, he would think his political opponents are behind the protest. Even if they are not the ones instigating it, Ruto wilfully played into their hands. You can’t blame politicians for playing politics.

The jittery reaction from the Nigerian authorities to the impending protest is understandable. Our current leaders were specialists in protests in their previous lives. We shouldn’t expect them to eagerly drink from their own medicine. They know the political implications of mass action. More so, millions of Nigerians need no incentive to protest. If the one kilo of beans they bought at N651 in June 2023 is now N2,290, they don’t have to be PDP members or Obidients to protest. If the medicine they bought at N8,000 is now N35,000, they can hardly resist shouts of “aluta”. And if they have lost their jobs as a result of company shutdowns, “solidarity forever” will be music to their ears.

The reaction of the federal government has been more about a possible political hijack of the protests. Again, can you blame politicians for hijacking genuine agitation? I have lived long enough to witness such things in Nigeria. The founders of APC, the current ruling party, did a great job of instigating protests against PDP administrations in the past — and there is no way we would forget what happened in January 2012 when President Goodluck Jonathan tried to end fuel subsidy but was met with stiff resistance via “Occupy Ojota”, fully supported by opposition parties bent on unseating him. I do not blame either APC or PDP for playing politics. Politicians must necessarily politick.

I would also say President Bola Tinubu has done enough to incur the wrath of those who may want to join or sponsor protests against him. I don’t think we need to go to Harvard to study that. Many Nigerians, including those who didn’t vote for him, were ready to give him a benefit of the doubt when he was inaugurated in May 2023 but he mismanaged the honeymoon in no time — what with the famed 100-vehicle stunt in Lagos ahead of Eid al-Adha and the Dubai jamboree under the guise of COP23. The size of his cabinet at a time of austerity was such a slap on the face for Nigerians. He lost many people in the process. Nobody needs to send them an invitation letter to join the protest.

Politically, many Nigerians whose candidates lost the presidential election are yet to get over what hit them. They have a natural motivation to support the protest. Some have never accepted him as president in any case, so things like this will excite them. To complicate things, Tinubu’s pattern of appointments has clearly and unashamedly favoured his own part of the country, particularly Lagos state, as well as his loyalists. Those elsewhere who supported him one way or the other are thus motivated to work with his enemies to pull him down. It is rational political behaviour. In reality, nobody goes into politics for God’s sake. Self-interest is a major factor. It is the nature of politics.

Where do I stand? Peaceful protests are good for the health of democracy. Social action and citizen engagement are critical to the growth of democracy. Freedom of expression is core to democracy. That is why some of us prefer democracy to military rule any day. The beauty of democracy is not just “one person, one vote” but the voice it gives us after we have exercised our suffrage. Democracy will never grow if all we do is vote and retreat to our cocoons. Democracy is suffering body blows globally, no doubt, but the Nigerian situation is all the more worrisome because of the huge gap between the people and the leaders. “Them bellyful but we hungry” — as Bob Marley once said.

But while I propose that civic engagement must improve significantly, I have my worries. The protest can be hijacked. #EndSARS became #EndBuhari and #EndNigeria as some people sneaked in their own narrow agenda and unprecedented arson was unleashed on Lagos. Two, the duration of a protest can become a problem. I have observed, for decades, that the longer a protest lasts, the higher the possibility of hijack by hoodlums, anarchists, security agencies, and, lately, fifth columnists providing refreshments. Conversely, fatigue can set in when a public protest is going on for too long. We saw this with the sit-at-home action against the annulment of the June 12 election in 1993.

That said, I must now add that while protests and civic engagement are not out of order, they are not going to solve our economic problems. We are in deep trouble. There is no soothing way of putting it. We are literally living on borrowed time. As we say in Pidgin, “water don pass garri”. This problem did not start today, or yesterday, and will not be resolved today or tomorrow. No matter the fantasies we have built in our heads, Nigeria is in a mess. We used to paper over the cracks because we were earning fat petrodollars but we have so overstretched our luck that there is no wriggle room left. We are hopelessly dependent on imports while exporting all but one product: oil. We are in soup.

The current crisis started around 2014 when oil revenue started going down owing to two factors: falling production and falling prices. Call that double whammy. Onshore oil production, where Nigeria owns 55-60 percent of the joint ventures, was taking a hit from militancy, pipeline vandalism, host community restiveness, and theft. The oil companies started weighing their options. To worsen matters, we proposed a petroleum industry law in 2008 that remained comatose in the National Assembly for over a decade. Investors, unsure of what fiscal laws would govern their investments, held back their money. All these factors combined to reduce our production capacity. That is a fact.

It should be a thing of shame that a country that used to produce 2.4 million barrels of oil per day in the 1970s, when our population was about 70 million, is now producing 1.3 million when the population is over 200 million. Do the math. It just shows how unserious we have been all our lives. We managed to hit 2.2 million again less than 20 years ago, but we have been going down since then — and to think this is the source of our livelihood! With production dropping and oil exports retreating, our forex inflows logically went south, but we kept ballooning expenditure with unsustainable subsidies, even pledging future oil output as payment guarantee for urgent imports.

We needed to have made the necessary adjustments long ago, perhaps as far back as 2015, but we kept postponing the evil day. With no significant inflow, we started rationing the forex and printing naira recklessly to sustain our local expenditure, much of which was wasted or stolen. We kept petrol price ridiculously low “to protect the poor” who are now ultimately paying the price, literally. Ways and means that was about N50 billion a decade ago accumulated to over N20 trillion in a few years, further destroying the value of the naira, pumping up inflation and impoverishing the people. The economic crisis was inevitable and there is no easy way out. We are only reaping what we sowed.

Unfortunately, Tinubu did not help matters with the haphazard way he has implanted, or implemented, the reforms. The manner he announced subsidy removal showed clearly that he was going to be an unsympathetic undertaker. Basic things that should have been in place before such a major policy pronouncement — such as the CNG conversion initiative — were missing. While we were at it, we watched helplessly as the naira crashed under a poorly conceived exchange rate policy. For an import-dependent (or “export-deficient” — to be politically correct) country, it was going to be nothing short of Armageddon. “Band A” electricity tariffs were also tripled at one blow.

Public finance was all but dead when Tinubu took over. But he has been too brutal with his surgery-without-anaesthesia. When prices of food and medicines were on the rise last year, Tinubu could have granted tariff waivers to achieve temporary relief. It took him a year to approve. Too little, too late. He could have done far better with his message of sacrifice if he had lived it. Instead, we are talking about buying presidential jets. Sacrifice is obviously for the lesser mortals. In the final analysis, people have a right and reason to protest. It won’t solve the economic problem, obviously, but it could put our insensitive leaders on notice about not always taking Nigerians for granted.

People are hungry. As Marley also put it, “A hungry mob is an angry mob.” That is my fear about public protests. Things can get out of hand. The ideal thing would be for the organisers and the security agencies to work hand in hand to make sure the protest goes in an orderly and civilised way. But things are more likely to be violent. Whichever way things go, however, the government needs to wake up. Times are hard, very hard, and they are not doing enough or acting on time to relieve the pains. Contrary to a widespread opinion, Nigerians are not a difficult people to lead. They just want leaders who feel their pains and do things that show that they care. Is that too much to ask?

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

COMMISSIONS GALORE

Last year, President Bola Tinubu ordered “immediate implementation” of the Oronsanye Report “to cut the cost of governance”. The core recommendation was to reduce the number of government agencies — currently estimated at over 700 — through mergers and dissolutions. Well, we just created the North West Development Commission and the South East Development Commission to replicate the patronage and sleaze in the Niger Delta Development Commission and the North East Development Commission. Next stop? North Central Development Commission and South West Development Commission. Every state, every LGA will soon a get development commission. Nigeria!

HOME COMING

If they explained Edo state politics to you and you understood, then it was not well explained. I actually adapted that from a saying about Nigeria. Comrade Philip Shaibu, the impeached deputy governor, has left the PDP for the APC where he was until 2020 when he and Governor Godwin Obaseki fell out with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole. Their opponent in 2016, Pastor Ize Iyamu, left PDP for APC to run for governorship in 2020. They traded places. On his return to APC last week, Shaibu knelt before Oshiomhole, whom he had publicly savaged in 2020. Once upon a time, I used to take sides with politicians. I learnt my lesson 20 years ago. All I do now is enjoy the show. Netflix.

WAGE RAGE

After prolonged negotiations, the minimum wage has been more than doubled — from N30,000 to N70,000 per month. Another review is expected in 2027. This is not a bad deal, even if not great either. Employers still have to generate the revenue to pay. Many will end up not paying at all or sacking workers in order to manage the wage bill. Some will do both. I find two popular takes on the minimum wage amusing. One, people make it look like N70,000 is the average wage of a Nigerian worker. It is not. It is for the lowest paid. Two, people convert the figure to dollars in order to ridicule it — as if workers collect their salaries and head to the BDC. It surely doesn’t work like that. Cynical.

NO COMMENT

Alhaji Umar Namadi, governor of Jigawa state, has told Nigerians that the planned nationwide protest against economic hardship is not the solution to our problem. True, but I wish he had stopped there. He went on to say “people should turn to God, repent, seek for forgiveness and divine intervention on the challenges”. Truly, economic hardship is not limited to Nigeria – it is a global phenomenon, although it seems Nigeria has been on a freefall. However, interpreting the hardship as “a trial from God” and something that needs repentance and forgiveness, as Namadi did, is quite bemusing. In that case, the repentance should start with those mismanaging the country. Logical.

End Bad Governance Protest: Tinubu, Fix the Economy, Leave Protesters Alone by Ajiboye Amos Olakunle 

The Nigerian government's recent attempts to quash the End Bad Governance protests have been utterly astounding. In a frantic bid to cling to power and maintain the status quo, they have resorted to a multi-pronged strategy of intimidation, manipulation, and division. By exploiting traditional institutions, the government seeks to create an aura of mystique and foreboding, aiming to deter citizens from exercising their fundamental human rights. Threats have been issued to protesters, and agents provocateurs have been deployed to foment discord and violence. The government's tactics are clear: silence dissent, crush opposition, and maintain the grip of bad governance on our beloved nation.

The manipulation of traditional groups to commence rituals on protest dates is a cynical ploy to deter citizens from exercising their fundamental human rights. It's a crude attempt to conjure an aura of mystique and foreboding, creating an atmosphere of trepidation and dread. However, we are not deceived. Any ritualist who comes out on the day of protest, in fact, has joined the call for change.

We say to the government: your priorities are misplaced. The same energy, resources, and determination you have applied to suppressing the protests should be channeled towards genuine reform and good governance. The same pressure you have brought to bear on the protesters should be applied to fixing the systemic problems that have plagued our nation for far too long.

The Nigerian people demand more than just superficial concessions and token gestures. We demand a fundamental transformation of our governance system, a radical overhaul of our institutions, and a commitment to transparency, accountability, and justice. We call on the government to redirect its focus towards addressing the pressing issues that have driven the protests in the first place. Fix the economy, provide jobs, and alleviate poverty. Ensure access to quality education and healthcare. Address the scourge of corruption and mismanagement. Protect the rights and freedoms of all Nigerians.

The government's current approach is akin to treating the symptoms of a disease while ignoring the root cause. It is a short-sighted strategy that will only lead to further unrest, further division, and further suffering. We urge the government to engage with the protesters, to listen to their grievances, and to work towards a comprehensive and inclusive solution. We urge them to recognize that the protests are not a threat, but an opportunity – an opportunity to reform, to renew, and to rebuild our dear nation.

The Nigerian people will not be silenced, will not be intimidated, and will not be oppressed. We will continue to demand a better future, to fight for our rights, and to reclaim our country from those who seek to destroy it. To the government, we say: the choice is yours. Continue down the path of repression and division, or choose the path of reform and progress. The Nigerian people await your response."

Data and AI Leader, Mr Abel Aboh urged Nigeria to leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address some of its current challenges even as he highlighted some strategies that can be adopted. 

Aboh gave the charge on Saturday during the July edition of the Nairametrics webinar themed, ‘How to Make Money Using AI: Value Creation for Businesses, Entrepreneurs, and Government.’ 

According to him, Nigeria would need to deploy in the area of agriculture to achieve food sufficiency and this should be one of the immediate actions that the government needs to take. He added that this would require setting up a team of the right people to solve the problem using AI. 

Addressing sectorial problems 

While noting that the present administration through the Ministry of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, has been doing a lot in the area of AI, he said a lot still needs to be done in using the technology to solve the country’s problems, looking at it sector by sector. 

“Let’s say we take 10 sectors in the economy and take 10 problems in each of the sectors. What we need to do is to get the right team of people to solve those sectorial problems. This can be in sports, financial services, education, and others. 

“We’re not going to solve the problems 100% but what we do is that as we’re solving these problems, we’re learning lessons, but more importantly, fundamentally, we are collecting the data that is required,” Aboh said. 

Data literacy 

To make headway with AI, the technology expert said Nigeria would also need to increase data literacy levels, especially among the people working in government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies.  

According to him, data is very crucial in AI and people in government must be data literate enough to ensure data privacy and data security.  

“We need to evolve our people and start talking to them about data literacy. We need to start talking to them about data privacy as well. I mean, there are a couple of stories that came up about the NIN, that people say they can buy off the shelf. You know, they can get people’s private data. 

“So, we need to start talking about data security. These are the whole bandwagon that enables you successfully to deliver data and AI successfully,” he said. 

Partnering with other African countries 

In addition to that, Aboh said Nigeria would also need to partner with other African countries to be able to address some of its challenges. While noting that only Nigerians can solve Nigerian problems, the AI leader said a strategic collaboration with other African countries would fast-track the journey for Nigeria.  

Emphasizing the need for the partnership, Aboh said: 

“We need to be forward in working with the African countries. I always say to people, that African data and African people are quite unique, and what we don’t simply want to do is to go and take something outside of Europe or Asia and apply it to ourselves.  

“So, we need to be leading the charge and working with other African countries in order to build the right strategy that works for Africa.” 

Aboh added that Nigeria has abundant of people with the right skills,  expertise, and exposure that could help the country navigate the AI revolution. He said the government would also need to collaborate with those individuals to achieve its goals. 

Click here to watch the full video of the webinar, where other experts spoke on AI opportunities in Nigeria.

[Nairametrics]

The lawmaker representing Borno South, Mohammed Ali Ndume, has voiced concerns over Daniel Bwala, a former aide to Atiku Abubakar, Presidential Candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 elections, suggesting that Bwala could be a political liability to President Bola Tinubu.

Bwala, who distanced himself from Atiku after Tinubu’s victory in the recent election, has been making efforts to align himself with the All Progressives Congress (APC), despite previously distancing himself from the party over its Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Senator Ndume criticized Bwala, indicating that his recent actions raise questions about his loyalty and political utility.

Bwala’s departure from Atiku’s camp and subsequent attempts to integrate into the APC have drawn scrutiny, especially given his previous critiques of Tinubu’s policies.

The tension between Ndume and Bwala escalated when Bwala accused Ndume of planning to mobilize youths to attack him in his local government area, Hawul, part of Ndume’s constituency.

Ndume responded to these allegations during a press briefing at his Maiduguri residence, expressing regret over Bwala’s claims and questioning Bwala’s connections to Hawul, suggesting that Bwala cannot trace his actual roots or connect with the local people there.

He said, “The only advice I can give President Tinubu is that, politically Daniel Bwala is just a Mad Dog who barks and bites even the owner, and so, Tinubu should be careful with the likes of Bwala.

“Bwala was once a member of the APC, but later ran away shamelessly and joined the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, where he started using all sorts of abusive and insulting words against Tinubu on Live television. Bwala can only be useful in attacking people, but the 2027 general elections are coming; all I can advise is for Bwala to come to Borno and trace his roots.

“Ordinarily, I did not want to join issues with him. I wouldn’t have replied to Mr Bwala because I believe Bwala’s strategy is how to get the attention and sympathy of Mr President to give him Police cover and maybe a job.

“I can describe Daniel Bwala as a failed Lawyer and empty drum making noise in Abuja. As I said, I did not want to respond, but because Bwala talked about threats or I am mobilizing Youths to attack him, which has security implications, is very sensitive.

“We have credible people in the Hawul local government area, and they know who Daniel Bwala is, in fact when I saw his message on X handle, I thought it was Inuwa Bwala, who was the former Caretaker Chairman of Hawul and a renowned journalist. I quickly drew his attention to it, which he said, he was not the one.

“Later, I was made to understand that it is Daniel Bwala who has no political relevance as far as Southern Borno is concerned.

“In fact, I replied to his post and said, if accusing and abusing me on Twitter or pages of Newspapers would fetch him something from Tinubu to survive after being a failed lawyer in Abuja, I would be happy for him.

“We have three former Deputy Governors from Hawul, and all of them are my ardent supporters and people I took in high esteem throughout my political surgeon. Bwala wants to portray the peace-loving youths as violent people. You can’t instigate Hawul people to go into political violence, because is not in their character. All I can say is that Bwala is trying to get sympathy from Mr. President.”

The senator also emphasized that the interview he granted on Arise TV did not accuse or insult President Tinubu, but only criticized some policies, which are counterproductive to average Nigerians.

[NaijaNews]

The Commissioner of Police in Lagos State, Mr Adegoke Fayoade, has advised residents of the state against attacking protesters.

Fayoade gave the advice while addressing traditional rulers and community leaders in Eti-Osa, Ibeju-Lekki, Epe and Lagos Island local government area during a town hall meeting on Saturday.

Fayoade said although police and other security agencies had met and declared that there should not be any protest in Lagos State, the residents should not attack any group or groups that might come out to protest.

“If there must be a protest, it must be peaceful. We want to know those who want to protest so that we can make arrangements for their security.

“It is your right to protest legitimately as long as it does not affect the rights of others.

“Any group planning a violent protest should rethink. Such a group will meet police and other security agencies. We don’t want a repeat of #EndSARS.

“The duty of residents is to give the police timely information about any group planning a violent protest, it is not for them to attack them,” he said.

[Newspot]

Kazakhstan’s duo Alexandra Le and Islam Satpayev won the first medal of the 2024 Olympic Games on Saturday after claiming an upset bronze in the 10-metre mixed team air rifle event.

Le and Satpayev cruised to victory over Germany’s Maximilian Ulbrich and Anna Janssen, outscoring their opponents 17-5 at Chateauroux.

Janssen, ranked world number one in the event, and Ulbrich, the world No.19, had been favourites to prevail against Le and Satpayev, ranked 33rd and 95th in the world respectively.

[Leadership]