I woke up this morning with a heavy heart. Nigeria is on my mind. The country has become very poor in recent years. total FX proceeds from crude oil exports expected in 2025 is just about $22 billion. Dangote Group expects to earn $30 billion the same year. can you imagine? A country of over 200 million people depending on $22 billion? We are indeed a very poor country. But why?

Because politics has become the most lucrative business in the country. the only thing young people pursue is political appointments; not business opportunities as was the case in the after the civil war and all through the 1980s and 1990s.

Since 1999, our government has abandoned promotion of non-export drive. The emphasis is now on sharing political patronage foodstuffs. How can the federal government of Nigeria be focused on importing rice and sharing it to the states? What happened to previous initiatives on food self-sufficiency?

In the 1980s, Association of Nigerian Exporters (ANE) was a proud group of non-oil exporters of all sort of non-oil goods. In those days, commercial banks had Export Desks to fund export businesses. There were incentives for those who repatriated their export proceeds. Agencies like Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) were up and doing in encouraging exports of non-oil goods. The IBB regime set up Raw Materials Research Council to develop local raw material as substitutes to the imported ones.

Why did we abandon all those efforts?

The Buhari administration made commendable efforts in driving domestic production of rice and other grains. It recorded some successes, I must say. Today, those initiatives have been abandoned and we are back to the era of full-scale rice importation. Why?

The drastic reduction in domestic food production largely due to insecurity is the main reason for the hardship and hunger in the land. Yet, there is no authentic program from the government to fix this problem. I saw in the news the other that some Black farmers in the US were given $2 billion by the Biden administration because they could not access bank loans. Serious nations take farming seriously. Every nation subsidizes agriculture very seriously because food security has become a national security issue. But here, we have scrubbed the Anchor Borrowers Program which used to be a funding program to support farming. What have we replaced the ABP with?

Meantime, the most important news from the State House these days is the release of list of political appointments! The Nigerian government celebrates political appointments with the same gusto with which other nations celebrate scientific breakthroughs. Mind you, I have nothing against political appointments and political appointees, but any nation whose politics is more lucrative than entrepreneurship is doomed!

I just wanted to unburden my mind. I will speak more on this in due course. Thank you.

....... Demands the immediate release of Micheal Lenin and others Protest Leaders currently being detained by Security agents 

......Frowns at the use of Thugs to Attack Protesters in Lagos and Abuja 

.......Decries the Use of Curfews by State Governors to frustrate Citizens' Nationwide Protests 

The United Action Front of Civil Society again, wishes to observe that reports from our Protests field Monitors in Abuja, Lagos and other Cities of Nigeria from our monitors have it that both security agents and politically sponsored thugs have consistently disrupted and dispersed lawful assembly of peaceful protesters at the Moshood Abiola Stadium, the venue designated by the court for the anti Hunger protesters for no reason at all, inspite of insisting earlier that the Abuja protests must be confined to Moshood Abiola Stadium. This use of unwarranted force on civil protesters is high handed and oppressive to law abiding citizens.

Reports also have it that some leaders of the Protests in Abuja, who include Mr Micheal Lenin, among others are still being detained and tortured by the Security agents, who abducted them and at their residences in the dead of the night following their open criticism of President Bola Tinubu's Address to the Nation. For us, it's quite sad that Nigeria is beginning to operate a Police State under a democratic regime as in the dark days of General Sanni Abacha.

In order to avoid further umbrage of the citizens, we call on security agents to immediately release Lenin and others, who still being illegally detained by the State so as not to drive the popular and open protestations of the citizens underground and turn them into violent engagements of the state as history as proven that those who make peaceful protests impossible for Citizens, have always made violent ones inevitable. 

Again, our observations of the protests in Lagos, especially in Alausa, Lekki and Ojota axis have shown connivance between security agents and sponsored hoodlums who randomly unleashed mayhem on peaceful Protesters with hard objects and tear gas cannisters, injuring several unarmed and defenceless protesters in the process. 

Similarly, as Leaders of the Conscience of our country, we frown heavily at this resort to violence by the Police in most northern states as well as the use of Curfews to frustrate the civil rights of citizens to express their dissatisfaction to government policies in the country contrary to the assurances given to us by the Inspector General of Police, Dr Kayode Egbetokun during our consultative meeting with him last week. 

Lastly, we find the growing show of force by security agents and the undemocratic use of state power by sub national authorities unacceptable and subversive of the democratic will of the citizens and therefore call on the President to immediately intervene by calling those involved to order, while initiating dialogue with protest leaders on their key demands as announced in his address to the Nation before the situation get out of hand. 

Signed 

Olawale Okunniyi 

(Veteran Che)

Head, Coordinating Secretariat 

United Action Front of Civil Society

Nigeria has been on tenterhooks in the last one week since the commencement of #EndBadGovernance (or anti-hunger) protests on August 1, 2024. What started as a child’s play has resulted in humongous economic and social costs to the country. While the demonstrations were largely peaceful in the 17 states in southern Nigeria, it was bloody in many parts of the North. Fatalities were recorded in states like Niger, Borno, Kano, Jigawa and Kaduna. Some of the state governors have to declare curfew (in part or wholly) in order to stem the wanton destruction of public facilities and private property. Most shocking is the call for military takeover and hoisting of the Russian flag in some cities of northern Nigeria.

In the 34 years I have been involved in media advocacy, I have been protesting against bad governance through my commentaries in print and broadcast media. As of the last count, which was Saturday, August 3, 2024, my views have been expressed in 73 print media (newspapers, magazines, journals), 60 television stations and 71 radio stations. As an undergraduate student of the University of Lagos, I fully participated in aluta on campus and even outside campus, especially during the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. I was also on the street during the #OccupyNigeria protest of 2012.

I quite understand the utilitarian value of the critical mass of people demanding change and a better life. I therefore support the #EndBadGovernance protest in principle with a proviso that it will be peaceful and without bloodletting. Unfortunately, the turn of events has shown that while the organisers may be clear-headed about demanding better governance, fifth columnists have infiltrated their rank to cash in on the movement for pecuniary and political interest.

Many call out President Bola Tinubu to douse the rising tension by addressing the nation on the demands for better governance. The President obliged last Sunday morning. In a 20-minute speech of 38 paragraphs, the President articulated the economic reforms his government had embarked upon in the last 14 months. Sincerely, Tinubu’s speech since he assumed office as the 16th President of Nigeria never contained the kind of statistics his August 4, 2024 broadcast contained. The President spoke to issues around youth empowerment, agricultural initiatives meant to bring down the rising cost of food, gas initiatives, especially the plan to make Nigeria adopt compressed natural gas as the new fuel for transportation. Tinubu also spoke on infrastructural development in terms of roads and housing, the new minimum wage for Nigerian workers, the consumer credit scheme, the student loans scheme, credit support to nano, micro, small, and medium enterprises and many more.

Although many, including the organisers of the protest, did not agree with him, Tinubu said, “For decades, our economy has remained anaemic and taken a dip because of many misalignments that have stunted our growth. Just over a year ago, our dear country, Nigeria, reached a point where we couldn’t afford to continue the use of temporary solutions to solve long-term problems for the sake of now and our unborn generations. I, therefore, took the painful yet necessary decision to remove fuel subsidies and abolish multiple foreign exchange systems which had constituted a noose around the economic jugular of our nation and impeded our economic development and progress.” One of the demands of the protesters is for Tinubu to return the fuel price to the subsidy era before his inauguration. In all honesty, I don’t think this is feasible, given the economic dislocation this will cost. However, I believe if the Port Harcourt refinery and other private refineries such as the Dangote refinery are functioning, and we exit fuel importation, the price of refined petroleum products will come down significantly.

The President said further that “in the past 14 months, our government has made significant strides in rebuilding the foundation of our economy to carry us into a future of plenty and abundance. On the fiscal side, aggregate government revenues have more than doubled, hitting over N9.1 trillion in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023 due to our efforts at blocking leakages, introducing automation, and mobilising funding creatively without additional burden on the people. Productivity is gradually increasing in the non-oil sector, reaching new levels and taking advantage of the opportunities in the current economic ambience….. Coming from a place where our country spent 97 per cent of all our revenue on debt service; we have been able to reduce that to 68 per cent in the last 13 months. We have also cleared legitimate outstanding foreign exchange obligations of about $5 billion without any adverse impact on our programmes.”

Tinubu said in July 2024, oil production increased to 1.61 million barrels per day, and the nation’s gas assets were receiving the deserved attention. Investors are coming back, and Nigeria has already seen two Foreign Direct Investments signed amounting to over half a billion dollars since then. On the CNG, he opined that he had launched the Compressed Natural Gas Initiative to power the country’s transportation economy and bring costs down. This will save over N 2 trillion a month, being used to import PMS and AGO and free up our resources for more investment in healthcare and education. He said his government would be distributing a million kits of extremely low or at no cost to commercial vehicles that transport people and goods and who currently consume 80 per cent of the imported PMS and AGO. He claimed that his government has started the distribution of conversion kits and the setting up of conversion centres across the country in conjunction with the private sector. He believes that this CNG initiative will reduce transportation costs by approximately 60 per cent and help to curb inflation.

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Under the Students Loan Scheme, he said N45.6bn had already been processed for payment to students and their respective institutions. He said he established the Consumer Credit Corporation with over N200bn to help Nigerians acquire essential products without the need for immediate cash payments. The president said he ordered the release of an additional N50bn each for NELFUND – the student loan, and Credit Corporation from the proceeds of crimes recovered by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

Tinubu further said he secured $620 million under the Digital and Creative Enterprises– a programme to empower young people, creating millions of information technology and technical jobs that would make them globally competitive. These programmes include the 3Million Technical Talents scheme.  In addition, his government has introduced the Skill-Up Artisans Programme; the Nigerian Youth Academy; and the National Youth Talent Export Programme.

Tinubu claimed that more than N570bn had been released to the 36 states to expand livelihood support to their citizens, while 600,000 nano-businesses had benefitted from nano-grants. An additional 400,000 nano-businesses are expected to benefit. Furthermore, 75,000 beneficiaries have been processed to receive our N1 million Micro and Small Business single-digit interest loans, starting this month. His government has also built 10 MSME hubs within the past year, created 240,000 jobs through them and five more hubs are in progress which will be ready by October this year. Payments of N1bn each are also being made to large manufacturers under single-digit loans to boost manufacturing output and stimulate growth. Under his Renewed Hope City and Estates, he is committed to 100,000 housing units over the next three years.

Lastly, the president says he is providing incentives to farmers to increase food production at affordable prices. He claimed to have directed that tariffs and other import duties should be removed on rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, drugs, and other pharmaceutical and medical supplies for the next six months, in the first instance, to help drive down the prices. The president said his government’s target was to cultivate more than 10 million hectares of land to grow what we eat. The Federal Government will provide all necessary incentives for this initiative, whilst the states provide the land. He said he had ordered mechanised farming equipment such as tractors and planters, worth billions of naira from the United States, Belarus, and Brazil.

All the aforementioned initiatives are quite ambitious and will rub off positively on the economy. If genuinely implemented, they will boost employment, alleviate poverty and reduce hunger. My appeal is for civil society organisations and the media to either jointly or separately set up technical committees that will track the performance of the government on these counts. Developing a monitoring and evaluation matrix with the figures reeled out by the President and carrying out on-the-spot assessment is a veritable way of fact-checking the President to know whether he is truthful or lying to the nation.

On Wednesday, July 31, two senior bankers, Tony Elumelu, chairman of UBA Group, and Ladi Balogun, group chief executive of FCMB Holdings, walked into President Tinubu’s office to talk to him about the proposed 70 percent windfall tax imposed on banks’ super profits by the government.

Accompanied by the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, and chairman of FIRS, Zacheus Adedeji, the two bank chiefs tried to convince the president to back down from imposing such a stringent levy on profits made by the banks from foreign exchange revaluation that arose from the devaluation of the naira last financial year.

Both bankers were in fact nominated by the industry to meet the president on its behalf and convince him of the need to withhold assent to the 2024 Finance Bill which contains the controversial 70 percent tax. It is doubtful that the bankers were successful in their mission, according to my informed sources. The president, I was told, welcomed them warmly, but politely turned down their request, lecturing them on why the banks should be prepared to contribute much more to reviving the economy. The government, facing a severe fiscal crisis due to a steady decline in oil revenues in the last several years, believes that the windfall tax will rake in enough revenue to cover a good portion of the deficit in the 2024 budget.

Following the massive devaluation of the naira against the dollar (and other foreign currencies) last year, individuals and businesses that had dollars in their bank accounts suddenly found themselves richer by over 100 percent in naira terms. For the banks which traditionally have large foreign currency holding, the revaluation automatically translated into massive gains and a sharp increase in their profits in 2023 FY – some as high as 200 percent jump from the 2022 figures. It is on this extraordinary gain that the government wishes to impose the 70% tax, in addition to the 30% corporate tax that the banks had already paid.

But the banks are against the draconian levy and their argument is that the tax could significantly reduce profits available to cover non-performing loans and maintain regulatory capital requirements. Reduced profitability, they argue, poses a huge risk to the financial stability of the industry, especially to lenders who are already operating close to regulatory thresholds.

“Many manufacturers in the country are already declaring huge losses due to this same foreign exchange revaluations. What that tells me is that these companies are no longer able to service their loans; these loans are already being classified and are going bad; and the banks will soon take huge write-downs on these loans,” said an executive director in charge of corporate banking in one of the big banks. In other words, today’s super profits will turn into losses tomorrow in the industry.

Another argument is that it is counterproductive to tax banks’ profit while the CBN has recently increased the minimum share capital for all categories of banks. “The profit comes from the capital, and a further tax on profit is tantamount to taxing capital that we are trying to raise,” said a chief financial officer in a bank. There are also investor sentiments. Banks’ share prices have been falling – by between 10% and 15% – since the national assembly passed the bill three weeks ago. “The uncertainty this announcement has created is not good for investors’ confidence in the system,” a bank chief executive told me.

The fact that this tax is imposed retroactively has also raised concerns about its fairness and appropriateness. It is a well-established principle in law that no act of parliament should take retroactive effect. The FIRS is well aware of this in the various litigations it’s been involved in. In one such case (FIRS vs ACUGAS), the Federal High Court, Abuja, on Monday, 27 June 2022, ruled that the FIRS and the Attorney General (the plaintiffs) acted unlawfully by applying the provisions of Finance Act 2019 to transactions that occurred before January 13 2020.

Finally, the imposition of tax on foreign exchange gains presents some kind of dilemma in the industry and to the tax authorities. Are these gains revenue to the banks, which should therefore be subject to corporate income tax, or are they capital gains, which may be subject to capital gains tax? Whatever the case, some analysts are claiming that the so-called windfall profits are mere paper profits as they have not really been realised, and so should not even be taxed.

The weeklong protests rocking the country have momentarily distracted the government’s attention from this bill. I am sure that the president will return to it when calm returns. But before then, the Bank Directors Association of Nigeria will meet on August 12 to take a position on the matter.

In May 2022, the UK government introduced a windfall profit tax on crude oil-producing companies. Known as the Energy Profit tax, it was introduced as a response to soaring oil prices. The government argued that the tax was justified because the companies ‘’were not responsible for the windfall’’. In the first year, the government raised £2.6 billion. It is not clear how much the Nigerian government will raise from the banks, but it is notable that the banks are not resorting to litigation to settle the dispute as some businesses have done in the past. In fact, the interviews Elumelu and Balogun gave to the media after the meeting with Tinubu seem to suggest that the banks will conform if the rate is reduced.

President Bola Tinubu has appointed former Katsina State Governor Aminu Masari as the Chairman of the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) board. 

Presidential spokesperson Ajuri Ngelale announced the appointment in a statement.

The newly appointed board also includes Senator Sani Danladi, Sunday Adepoju, Nurudeen Adeyemi, Esther Ukachukwu, Turaki Ibrahim, and Aboh Eduyok.

President Tinubu emphasized the board's crucial role in enhancing the quality of tertiary education in Nigeria and urged members to fully commit to TETFund's mission.

Established in 2011, TETFund ensures equitable fund distribution across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones and monitors project execution to maintain educational standards.

Since May 29, 2023, workers in both public and private sectors have been suffering from economic hardships, particularly over rising food prices. Amidst the hardships, the government’s support for public service workers has raised questions about equity and inclusivity.

In fact, the Nigerian government’s commitment to supporting public service employees is commendable. However, it begs the question: Are non-government workers not Nigerians too? While civil servants receive regular salaries and benefits, many private-sector workers, artisans, and informal laborers struggle to make ends meet. Is this disparity fair?

Against the foregoing backdrop, it is apt to confess at this juncture that the inspiration to express this view came while reading the full text of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s speech on #EndBadGovernance Protests. Without any scintilla of hyperbole, I was jolted when I got to paragraph 26 of the speech where the president stated, “I signed the National Minimum Wage into law last week, and the lowest-earning workers will now earn at least N70, 000 a month”. At that point, I subconsciously asked myself, “Does Mr. President think that all employers in the private sector would implement the minimum wage for him to have said in his speech, ‘The lowest-earning workers will now earn at least N70, 000 a month?” The reason for asking the foregoing question cannot be farfetched as not a few private organizations in both the service and manufacturing sector lack the financial capacity to pay the newly approved minimum wage. For instance, in the sector where this writer works, most workers’ basic salaries and allowances put together fall below the minimum wage benchmark of N70, 000.00. Not only that, a huge number of employers in the sector are owing their workers in arrears, and they cannot be blamed because the business environment in which they thrive has for decades remained unfriendly.

Without a doubt, the foregoing stark reality is the reason why this writer is worried that the President, from the perspective of him signing the minimum wage, which he seemingly flaunted in his speech leaves much to be desired, particularly as a wide spectrum of Nigeria’s working population is in the private sector.

In a nation as diverse and dynamic as Nigeria, ensuring equity and inclusivity in welfare policies is not just a matter of social justice; it is a fundamental requirement for sustainable development. As the federal government grapples with the challenges posed by economic hardships, it must prioritize fairness and transparency to bridge the gap between the working population and government workers.

While equality aims for equal resources for all, equity recognizes that individuals face different obstacles. It acknowledges disparities and tailors support accordingly. In the context of welfare, equity means addressing the unique needs of various groups, ensuring that no one is left behind.

In a similar vein, inclusion refers to intentional efforts to allow diverse people with different identities to fully participate in all aspects of an organization. In our case, it means involving both government workers and the broader working population in policy decisions and resource allocation.

Again, government workers often receive priority when it comes to salary adjustments. While this is essential for their well-being, it should not overshadow the struggles faced by the working class. A fair approach would involve regular reviews of minimum wage and benefits for all, regardless of sector.

Also, the recent sale of a bag of rice at a relatively affordable price to government workers raises concerns. In times of hunger as all Nigerians are now, equitable distribution of relief materials is crucial. The working population, too, deserves access to affordable essentials.

Unfortunately, the federal government has concluded plans to sell a 50kg bag of rice at N40, 000 to public servants with a view to alleviating the food crisis in the nation and its effects on Nigerians.

This was disclosed in a letter from the Federal Ministry of Special Duties and Inter-governmental Affairs, which was signed by the Director of Human Resources of the Ministry, JaiyesimiAbimbola.

The letter said all interested staff members were to complete a Google form on the OHCSF website and submit it to the director of human resources for endorsement, and noted that payment for and the distribution of the rice would be coordinated by designated offices while the chairman, Joint Union Council of the ministry, would serve as an observer for transparency reasons in the course of the exercise. The question at this juncture is, “Why are workers in the private sector and informal sector of the economy not captured in the distribution of the rice which is half the price of the going price of rice across consumer markets?

Given the fact that workers in the private sector and those in the informal sector of the economy are unarguably excluded from the seeming largesse, it is expedient for the government to make the process a Needs-Based Approach. In fact, it is expedient for the government to make the welfare policies meet the specific needs of different groups. For instance, regarding the working population, there is need to focus on job creation, affordable healthcare, and education. In a similar vein, as regard that of government workers, the government should address their unique challenges while ensuring fairness.

Still in a similar vein is there is need to involve civil society organizations, labor unions, and grassroots representatives in policy discussions as their insights can lead to more effective solutions.

For the sake of clarity, equity and inclusivity are not mere buzzwords; they are the bedrock of a prosperous Nigeria. By prioritizing fairness, transparency, and collaboration, the federal government can bridge the divide and create a welfare system that truly serves all its citizens.

The Federal Government is collaborating with the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) to revive the country’s cotton and textile industry. 

Vice-President Kashim Shettima disclosed this following a meeting with an ICAC delegation, led by Executive Director Mr. Eric Trachtenberg, at the Presidential Villa in Abuja according to a post on the official X page of the Vice President’s activities. 

The Federal Government aims to create over 1.4 million jobs annually in the cotton and textile sector and develop key components of the cotton value chain. 

This value chain includes farming, weaving, ginning, and linking of cotton, aligning with the industrialization drive of President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Shettima urged stakeholders to devise a roadmap for revitalizing Nigeria’s cotton and textile sector. 

The vice president assured the delegation that the administration would make concerted efforts to harness opportunities within the cotton value chain. 

The vice president assured the delegation that the administration would make deliberate efforts to harness opportunities within the cotton value chain. This, he noted, would help Nigeria regain its ICAC membership. 

Shettima acknowledged ICAC’s commitment to developing the sector in Africa, highlighting that the diverse backgrounds within ICAC provide a nuanced understanding of the complexities and opportunities in the cotton value chain. 

Lagos is well positioned for cotton industrial development 

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State stated that the state is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the cotton value chain. He emphasized that Lagos, as a key part of this chain in Nigeria, would support efforts to revamp the sector, enabling the state to maintain its status as the largest fashion hub on the continent.  

He commended the federal government’s initiatives aimed at revitalizing the industry to create jobs and drive economic transformation. Sanwo-Olu also pledged the state’s readiness to procure cotton produced in other parts of the country for companies based in Lagos. 

Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State remarked that the meeting was part of Nigeria’s efforts to rejuvenate the textile industry and boost economic growth. He said Imo State and the Southeastern region would integrate into the cotton/textile sector to create jobs through the country’s industrialization. 

ICAO pledges commitment to Nigeria  

• The ICAC’s Executive Director, Eric Trachtenberg, expressed his satisfaction with the interest and commitment demonstrated by Nigeria’s leadership.
• He also commended other stakeholders for their efforts in reviving the industry in the country. 
• Trachtenberg highlighted the transformative potential of the cotton value chain by citing examples from China, India, Pakistan, and other parts of the world.
• He emphasized that the cotton and textile sectors offer significant competitive advantages and drive economic transformation. 
• He assured that the ICAC would support Nigeria’s cotton value chain by providing expert advice on improving productivity and enhancing the value chain, as well as facilitating investment.

[Nairametrics]

Recall that Tinubu’s speech was greeted with heavy backlash, as some political stakeholders claimed that he failed to address critical issues.

Prominent amongst persons who have knocked the president for the address are Noble Laureate, Wole Soyinka, Chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party, Dele Momodu, a former Minister of Education, Oby Ezekwesili, and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana, among others.

Reacting to the criticism via his X handle on Tuesday, Keyamo claimed that the critics intended to force the President to negotiate power with them.

According to him, “Even if Mr President @officialABAT redrafts his wonderful speech one million times over, those with nefarious intentions will continue to pooh-pooh it in order to justify their continued instigation of mayhem.

“Their real intention is to force the hand of Mr President to negotiate power with them. It is as simple as that. The fall guys are the ignorant, but patriotic compatriots on social media screaming their heads off and the robbers and hoodlums that are rampaging on the streets.”

The minister, however, added, “Behind all these facades is a complex chess game of power with unseen hands.”

[NaijaNews]

In my column of 14 July 2017 titled: “Biafra. From Monologue To Dialogue” I had a tinge of optimism that the incarceration of Nnamdi Kanu, lPOB leader facing sedition charges from the Federal Government of Nigeria, was about to end.

The optimism was informed by the fact that the national assembly and presidency had waded into the matter especially when Arewa youths issued Igbos a so-called quit notice from the north and all other members of the Nigerian union started threatening to expel members of other ethnic groups in their domain.

In that 2017 media intervention, which is seven years ago, l made the case below:

“As the cry for Partitioning of Nigeria along ethnic, cultural and religious lines, which mimics the Partitioning of Africa amongst European countries during the Berlin Conference of 1884-1885, grows louder, it is pertinent to note that the conflict is being fueled by policies steeped in politics, as opposed to equity and justice.

“This is why allowing the Igbo agitation in particular and similar self-determination struggles amongst the multifarious ethnic nationalities in Nigeria to remain a monologue rather than a dialogue, has been dangerous, if not reckless.

“And it is therefore very heartening that both the presidency and the National Assembly, NASS are now weighing in to resolve the conflict as evidenced by recent consultations and media comments from both acting president, Yemi Osinbajo, and senate president, Bukola Saraki.

“I’m pretty convinced that like the duo, it has dawned on most Nigerians that disputes related to ethnic nationalism can no longer be attended to via the surfeit of window dressing measures that have been the attitude of authorities in Nigeria.”

My prognosis in 2017 which is seven years ago was wrong as evidenced by the fact that Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB was re-arrested in 2021 and has remained under detention.

So, my optimism that the presidency and national assembly had finally found the courage and formula to heal the old wounds in the ‘easterners’ and ‘northerners’ relationship which has been fractured since the unfortunate civil war ended some 54 years ago, was a misjudgment.

Perhaps that is principally because it was not an idea whose time had come. But today it appears to me as it is an idea whose time has come.

The quote “Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come” is often attributed to Victor Hugo, a renowned French writer.

It encapsulates the notion that when the conditions are ripe and the world is ready for a particular concept or change, the impact of that idea can be immense and transformative. According to the proponents of the thought process, the power of an idea lies not just in its intrinsic qualities but also in the context in which it emerges.

They argue further that a groundbreaking idea that resonates with the needs, values, and aspirations of a society can spark significant change and progress. And conclude that when an idea aligns with the prevailing sentiments, challenges, or opportunities of a given time, it can gain momentum and catalyze action on a large scale.

The current efforts and activities surrounding the renewed call to free Nnamdi Kanu tick all the boxes highlighted above.

In fact, for the devotees of the concept of an idea whose time has come, the imminent release of IPOB leader Kanu is an example of a zeitgeist or a time spirit. One would argue that it is a historical moment, where the idea or concept (a “spirit” if you will) is perfectly received by a cultural movement that surrenders to its utility as dictated by historical necessity.

In fact, the scenario described above aligns with the current dynamics of political change in our country which has brought a progressive president,Bola Tinubu to be at the helm of affairs at the Aso Rock Villa presidential seat of power. Thus it can be said that he has become the one put in a position to resolve the over half a century-old agitation by the Igbos in a manner that would be most beneficial by integrating them into one united Nigeria which they have been craving.

That is because being a neo-liberal free market economy adherent, president Tinubu understands the economics of scale and appreciates the benefits of a large population being enjoyed by the likes of China and India which have the largest and second largest populations in the world and have leveraged the population advantage to also be the first and second fastest growing economies worldwide.

So, the president recognizing that we are stronger together as a huge market would be keen to do all he could to heal the old wounds by addressing the reasonable grievances of the aggrieved parties and helping the lgbos blend with society as opposed to nursing grudges and expressing animosity.

Hopefully, if President Tinubu decides to play the political card and helps to build the bridge by allowing a political solution that would enable Kanu to regain his freedom, peace would return to the otherwise very industrially productive region currently rendered comatose due to insecurity challenges such as the Seat-At-Home order on a certain day imposed by IPOB in protest of Igbo’s exclusion from mainstream Nigerian politics after the Biafran war ended in 1970.

By last month June, it had been three years since Nnamdi  Kanu has been and continues to be the ‘guest’ of the federal government of Nigeria, FGN which has applied all manners of legal weapons to abridge his freedom following a charge of treasonable felony against him.

Remarkably, multiple Nigerian and even ECOWAS courts had ruled that he should be freed from detention until the supreme court of Nigeria, on appeal from the FGN lawyers overruled the decision of the lower courts in December of 2023.

As part of a more recent effort to help Kanu regain freedom through a political rather than legal process, 50 members of the House of Representatives from different parts of Nigeria and political parties, which branded themselves Concerned Federal Lawmakers For Peace and Security in the South East, had written to President Tinubu to activate Section 174 of the Constitution of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) and Section 107(1) of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act, 2015 for the release of the detained IPOB leader.

One thing that is significant to note with the initiative is that never in the past had a coalition of lawmakers that are not of Igbo stock formed a bipartisan force to solicit for the release of the IPOB leader from detention. That it just happened is a pointer to the expectation that it is truly an idea whose time has come.

So, given the current renewed and broad efforts involving non-Igbos, it seems to me now that it is a question of when, not if Kanu will be released from detention which willy-nilly will be sooner than later.

The assertion above is underscored by the fact that it has become clear to all involved that diplomacy rather than the nzogbu nzogbu (forceful) approach hitherto adopted by the hard-liners in lPOB leadership would be the key to Kanu’s freedom.

When that happens it would be a classic case of the triumph of diplomacy over the nzogbu-nzogbu (forceful) approach to conflict resolution.

As at the last count, the former democratically elected president of Nigeria/former military head of state of our country, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, and Chief Emeka Anyaoku, former secretary general of the Commonwealth of Nations covering all the countries formerly under the British Empire including Canada, Australia and India to mention a few had just finished rubbing minds with the governors of the five(5) eastern states on the need to and how to secure Nnamdi Kanu’s release from detention.

It was initially hoped that the involvement of eminent personalities such as the pair of Obasanjo and Anyaoku, who are juggernauts in the art of diplomacy and leadership not only in Nigeria (Anyaoku was also minister of foreign affairs in the 2nd republic)but the world (Obasanjo was a member of Eminent Persons Group with ex-prime ministers of Uk and Australia amongst others) Mazi Kanu was on track to be liberated from the jail for lack of a better terminology to describe his incarceration since June 2021 when he was allegedly renditioned from Kenya to answer to treasonable felony charges brought against him by the federal government of Nigeria.

But the optimism about Kanu’s immediate freedom through the efforts of the former president and former commonwealth secretary general was dampened by the subsequent rebuttal of the news that the elder statesmen would be leading the delegation of eastern states governors to plead with President Tinubu.

But hope is not entirely lost because although the corrigendum by former president Obasanjo that his meeting with the governors from the five southeast states in Enugu on the 3rd of July did not have the freedom for Kanu on the agenda looks like a setback, my hunch is that it is a tactical move by former president Obasanjo.

After all, negotiations for political settlements of matters of that nature are not supposed to be made public until it is done and dusted.

In other words, there may still be some ongoing backroom negotiations which makes it premature to go public with the freedom for Kanu initiative.

Whatever the case may be, while the lPOB members see Kanu as a leader of the struggle to emancipate Igbo people through secession, some sons and daughters of Igbo land at home and in the diaspora consider him their kit and kin who are fighting for the common good of the Igbos, but perhaps in a nasty and abhorrent way which they detest and have denounced.

Without a doubt, it is the rhetorics of defining Nigeria as a zoo and using expletives that do not bear repeating in this space to characterize leaders of Nigeria during feats of anger by Kanu that has, to put it mildly, bruised the egos of those he has been mocking as his vituperations bordered not just on disagreements with government apparachik but treating with disrespect other tribes.

That is a major factor that has made the struggle to free him after he was renditioned into Nigeria three years ago, a very daunting process.

According to John Maxwell, the renowned leadership expert, there is a difference between disagreement & disrespect. Apparently, the problem is not just a disagreement between the lPOB leader and the Nigerian nation.

But it appears to be a disrespect problem because he tended to be disrespecting other tribes. The point being made is that, when one disagrees with another, both can talk it out. They will just sit there and probably agree to disagree,  by never agreeing on anything, but they will keep talking. So when we disagree, we’ll talk it out.

But if one disrespects another, it puts a wall between them. This may result in what can be identified as a confirmation bias. In other words, people seek to listen to only people they agree with. Instead of confirmation bias, what is needed is a collaboration bias. Based on Maxwell’s philosophy, Igbos need to seek out people who are different from them to build relationships with in other to achieve full integration.

Before Obasanjo and Anyaoku’s visit in the company of the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe to confer with the five governors of eastern Nigeria in Enugu on Tuesday 3rd July, in November of 2021, Chief Mbazulike Amaechi, led a delegation of Igbo leaders to visit then president Muhamadu Buhari to appeal to him for the unconditional release of Nnamdi Kanu.

During that meeting Chief Amaechi was in the company of Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife, former Governor of Anambra State, Bishop Sunday Onuoha of the Methodist Church, Chief Barrister Goddy Uwazurike, former President of Igbo socio-cultural group, Aka Ikenga, and Mr. Tagbo Mbazulike Amaechi, the nonagenarian 2nd republic minister of transport (all who have now passed away along with Dr. Ezeife) had described the situation in the Southeast as “painful and pathetic,” lamenting that “businesses have collapsed, education is crumbling, and there is fear everywhere.”

He then committed to then-president Buhari that if Kanu was released to him as the only First Republic Minister still alive, “he would no longer say the things he had been saying,” stressing that he could control him, “not because I have anything to do with them (IPOB), but I am highly respected in Igbo land today.”

Then he concluded by making a solemn wish: “I don’t want to leave this planet without peace returning to my country. I believe in one big, united Nigeria, a force in Africa. Mr President, I want you to be remembered as a person who saw Nigeria burning, and you quenched the fire.”

Unfortunately, that wish never came to pass, before the 93-year-old Amaechi and 86-year-old Ezeife joined their ancestors in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

Fortuitously, although the late Mbazukike Amaechi had offered himself to then President Buhari as a guarantor of Kanu’s good behavior if released to him, a deal which the former president declined, reportedly Nnamdi Kanu himself and lPOB leadership have now undertaken to abide by whatever rules that are given as precondition for his freedom currently being negotiated.

So an out-of-court settlement is on track even as a few days after the eastern states’ governors resolved to take their plea to President Tinubu, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe of Abia state has led his colleagues from the southeast to meet with the Attorney General of the Federation, AGF and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi to negotiate the release of Kanu so that peace would reign in the eastern region like it used to before the agitation for a sovereign nation of Biafra raised the tension that has made the region a boiling couldrom of sorts.

It is such a paradox that only in 2016 the eastern region merited being granted  by the United Nations Development Program, UNDO the status of the safest region in terms of human security in Nigeria.

Today that geographical location has become so blighted that it is a shadow of its old self as the agitation to separate the Igbos from the rest of Nigeria has taken a very violent and bloody turn with thousands of the youths going to their graves prematurely.

That high level of violence had made Igbo land a no-go area for people who cherish peace and tranquillity as the space that was in no  distant past a bastion of commerce and industry has become a cauldron of sorts.

Before proceeding further a bit of historical background of the three figures who have influenced lgbo nation the most and have  been the major drivers of the Igbo struggle would be in order.

The three notable leaders in the annals of the modern Igbo nation are Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Chief Odimegwu Ojukwu and Mazi Nnamdi Kanu.

It is striking that have passed away at ripe age and one is incarcerated.

Azikiwe’s passion for the freedom of the oppressed people transcends Igbo land extending to his fight for independence of Nigeria and indeed the entire African continent. That is because he was one of the purveyors of Africa’s independence from colonial rule which is a mission he embarked on upon his return from acquiring education from Lincoln University, Connecticut, USA.

The second is Chief Odimegwu Ojukwu who in a bid to separate Igbos from Nigeria, as a colonel in the Nigerian army serving as the military administrator of the then eastern region declared it as the nation of Biafra on the 30th May 1967.

The third is Nnamdi Kanu who was driven by the zeal to conclude the liberation of Igbos from the injustice. He zealously continued with the struggle that  was started peacefully by Azikiwe before and continued after 1960 when Nigeria became an independent country and which Ojukwu pursued violently via a secession attempt in 1967 that degenerated into an unfortunate civil war that raged on for three years and left in its trail the loss of estimated three million souls and massive destruction of infrastructure in Igboland.

The lPOB leader who had relied on fiery anti-Nigeria speeches which authorities regarded as hateful and seditious and was thus apprehended by law enforcement agencies has been fighting for his freedom through the judiciary for over three years period.

The Igbos in pursuit of their quest to become more active participants in the mainstream political leadership of our country or be allowed to go their separate way have been “shaking the table”, be it via the civil war or the socioeconomically strangulating activities of IPOB in a bid to attract the attention of the FGN and the world.

It is remarkable that only one of the three (3) Igbo leaders highlighted earlier pursued the goal of liberating Igbos peacefully and that personality is Dr.Nnamdi Azikiwe. Notably, he was an intellectual and preferred a non-violent approach to conflict resolution.

To underscore his preference for dialogue over violence, it is worth recollecting a narrative in an interview he had in 1995 at at the age of 90 and in which he revealed how he admonished his protege in Ghana late Kwame Nkrumah, (who later became the prime minister of Ghana) to eschew violence in seeking change.

As a direct opposite of Azikiwe’s approach, Chief Ojukwu who was an army colonel adopted the use of force which is why he attempted to secede relying on the instrumentality of guns and war.

Likewise, Mazi Kanu’s modus operandi is the resort to fiery and incendiary speeches that fired up the youths of Igbo land who as a result felt obliged to pursue their freedom from the marginalization or ostracization by the Nigerian government as it were through confrontation of the nation’s security forces.

My guess is that each of them leveraged their skills based on their areas of expertise, which is okay.

Perhaps due to the notion of the average Igbo person influenced by the experience of the civil war and non-implementation of the end-of-war remedies promised which are: Reconciliation Reconstruction, and Rehabilitation – the so-called three Rs that were supposed to help re-absorb the Igbos back into the system, they have somehow become isolated in the scheme of things in our country.

Worse of all even they too have been affirming that inequity by also increasingly distancing themselves or drifting away instead of building friendship bridges across the river Niger to other like or unlike-minded Nigerians.

The above view is my assessment and a lot of hardliners have been debating that point of view with me over the years, l have been making the case that the imminent release of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu from detention and subsequent readmission of the Igbo nation into the mainstream of Nigerian leadership can only be attained through intensive and continuous negotiations which diplomacy is all about and not the nzogbu nzogbu (forceful) approach which has been the approach in the past decade or thereabouts.

The truth is that we can not continue to allow our unarmed youths to confront security forces that are fully armed in the manner Palestinians confront Israeli Security Forces, and IDF with bare hands and stones.

It is unwise that they would continue to throw states at security forces hoping that when they are mowed down and prematurely sent to their graves for a cause that can be negotiated, the powerful countries of theb would come to their rescue.

Based on experience, diplomacy preferred by Nnamdi Azikiwe has always proven to be the best way of resolving conflicts no matter how complex.

Nigeria attained independence without firing a shot against Britain. Similarly, India secured independence not through the barrels of the gun nor did apartheid end in South Africa via a war,but through a negotiated agreement which democracy is all about.

It is only through diplomacy that the raging Israeli-Hamas conflict and the Russian-Ukraine war could have been avoided and would eventually end.

That is a clear affirmation of the fact that diplomacy is the best solution for conflict resolution no matter how complex.

 So, it is a matter of when, not if peace returns to Igbo land, sooner than later through diplomacy it will be a tribute to the memory of my senior friend, the late Prof. George Obiozor who was the immediate past president General of Ohaneze Ndigbo who tried very hard to infuse the conversation on lgbo exclusion and the need to bring the ethic group into the mainstream with the fervor of diplomacy.

I can recall his passion for reconciling the Igbo nation with the rest of Nigeria with nostalgia. As far back as the mid-1980s, Prof. Obiozor alongside Prof. Ukandi Damachi, Dr. Stanley Macebuh, and Mr. Tom Fabian ( all of them now of blessed memory) used to converge in my apartment at 1004 Estate in Victoria Island, Lagos.

They used to do so even if l was much younger than them in age, academics, and every material aspect of life. But l felt honored to enjoy the privilege of sharing space and rubbing minds with some of the best brains in Nigeria as they were products of some of the best universities in the United States of America, USA from MIT, Princeton, and Harvard. They often engaged themselves in discussions that dug deep into the essence of our country from both theoretical and practical perspectives.

Having operated at very high levels in both the academia and top echelons of government and the private sector they had highly valuable insights which l was happy to absorb from them.

Restoring the southeast into the bastion of industrial development that it used to be was an overarching desire of Prof. Obiozor who had been Director Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Nigerian Ambassador to Israel and Cyprus, and lastly Nigeria’s ambassador to the United Nations before his retirement after which he took over the reins of leadership of Ohaneze Ndi Igbo, the apex Igbo socio-cultural group.

It’s trite to state that Prof.Obiozor would be rejoicing in the other world on the day that Kanu is set free and his beloved Igbo land once again, regains its privileged status of being UNDP’s most secure geographical region in Nigeria.

So, it is very likely in my estimation that all men and women of goodwill who have been craving peace in Igbo land can not wait to exhale and exclaim ‘victory at last’ when President Tinubu greenlights the freedom for Kanu initiative and welcomes the Lgbos into mainstream Nigeria.

•Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be hoping it can halt the naira’s downward spiral by selling dollars at a retail auction today.

The apex bank has received a list of all outstanding FX demand by end users from authorised dealer banks, after telling banks in a circular that it was diverging from the usual wholesale auctions to banks.

Sources say the CBN has been confounded by the naira’s rapid fall despite its increased interventions in the foreign exchange market.

According to FMDQ data, the bank sold $369 million in the month of July, while buying less than $20 million from the deposit money banks.

The CBN’s intervention has not brought the much-desired relief for the naira, causing the CBN to change tack with a retail auction.

The naira slipped below N1,600 last month, a record low. On Tuesday, the naira closed at N1601 per US dollar. It has declined by 70 percent over the past year.

The bank is also attempting to mop up some more naira liquidity with the retail auction, some traders said.

Ayokunle Olubunmi, head of financial institutions ratings at Agusto Consulting, explained that the CBN’s change of tack is to meet the burgeoning forex demand and stabilise the currency.

Olubunmi noted that the CBN’s decision is a revival of a previously utilised system designed to ensure legitimate forex transactions are met.

“The CBN has been trying to reduce activities on the forex window,” he said, “but the reality is that the CBN will actually be the main supplier. They are creating this particular window to ensure that the naira stabilises.”

He emphasised that the high demand for dollars has prompted the CBN to take multiple measures, including selling dollars to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators to alleviate pressure on the naira. The step is crucial to prevent the naira’s devaluation, he noted.

“The reality is that the CBN will still be the main supplier of forex,” Olubunmi reiterated. “Reintroducing the retail Dutch auction will support the naira and stem devaluation.”

According to a circular issued by the CBN, the upcoming sale is in response to the “growing unmet foreign exchange demand,” which has exacerbated pressure on the naira’s exchange rate.

The naira is also facing significant pressure due to seasonal demand from summer tourists and importers.

Historically, the central bank has utilised both retail and wholesale currency auctions to supply dollars to the market. The retail auction directly serves customers, while the wholesale auction provides dollars to banks.

[BusinessDay]