I recall my perennial visits to the three South-south Nigerian states of Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Rivers in the late 1980s and early 1990s when I was the Features of The PUNCH newspapers and, later, the Acting Editor of The Sunday PUNCH title with responsibilities for editing and producing the paper. Those were the days when Akpandem James was our State Correspondent in Akwa Ibom , Timi Fakrogha manned Cross Rivers (Calabar) and Ken-Fash Ayibaemi held sway in Port-Harcourt. I recall that Akpandem was one of the best writers we had in those days and his copy was always a delight to edit. I still remember a particular piece in which he described Uyo as the “Can-Do City” with its streams of commercial motorcycle riders which we call Okada” in Lagos but which, in Uyo, he said were called “alalok”, if my memory hasn’t failed me.

Those were the days when Nigeria hadn’t completely gone crazy with the importation of every conceivable item, down to toothpicks, and when the newsprint manufacturing company at Oku-Iboku in Cross River state, where Nigerian newspapers sourced their newsprints, was still functional. Timi had the additional assignment of enduring we got prompt and adequate supply of newsprints for our operations. Ken-Fash was adept at setting up high-brow and controversial personalities for interviews. I recall that he arranged for me to interview, among others, the musician, Evi-Edna Ogholi; Muhammed, a grandson of the then Sultan of Sokoto who got converted to Christianity and had to go into hiding; the Ogoni environmentalist and social justice crusader, Ken Saro-Wiwa; and the first military governor of Rivers state, at 25 years of age, during the Yakubu Gowon era, Alfred Papapreye Diete-Spiff, at that time the Amanyanabo of Twon-Brass.

Gen. Sani Abacha is well known for his obnoxious Decree 4 of 1984 which criminalized any publication by a journalist deemed by the authorities as embarrassing to a public official but Diete-Spiff, decades before him (on July 30, 1970), had set the unenviable record of an intolerant and high-handed military governor. A journalist, Minare Amakiri (Rivers State Correspondent of the Edo State-based Observer newspaper), had published, on the governor’s birthday, a story that the governor considered offensive (the grumbling of teachers in the state). An enraged Diete-Spiff decided to teach Amakiri a lesson for ruining his birthday fun. One of the governor’s aides, Ralph Iwowari, had Amakiri’s head publicly shaved with a broken bottle, in addition to his being given 24 lashes of the cane!

 My interview of Saro-wiwa was not as explosive as his recourse to it in his column in the Daily Times titled “Cannibal Rage”, in which he warned everyone to “Fear the Ogoni”! The question I asked him was whether his people, the Ogoni, still ate human flesh as his fore-bears were alleged to have done!        

Penultimate Monday, I was back again in Uyo to give moral support to Gov. Udom Gabriel Emmanuel as he rounded off his eight-year tour of duty as governor of the state. The first recommendation I had of Gov. Udom Emmanuel came from Femi Falana, SAN. Each time I advocated restructuring and fiscal federalism as panacea to Nigeria’s myriad problems, Femi would say “Go to Akwa Ibom and see what their governor is doing there”! He specifically mentioned the five-star Ibom Air founded by Udom Emmanuel. His argument was that despite the imperfections in the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, there is still a lot that any serious, focused and competent governor can do to uplift their people and that our fixation on restructuring only allows our governors in the South-west a convenient excuse for their below par performance in the delivery of the dividends of democracy to their own people.

The second person I heard the name Udom Emmanuel from was my brother-journalist, US-based Dr. Moshood Fayemiwo, publisher of the very popular “Razor” and, later, “Sunset” tabloids with which he relentlessly fought military dictatorship. Moshood and I hail from the same town, Owo in Ondo state but more importantly, we were both in the trenches as Nigerians fought Babangida and Abacha on the way to giving birth to the democracy we enjoy today. Along with many other activists, we were hounded, harassed and detained but were lucky to escape with our life. Dr. Moshood called from the US one day and said he wanted me to work with his friend, Gov. Udom Emmanuel, who wanted to be the presidential candidate of PDP in the last election. I said to myself “Udom Emmanuel again!” I told Dr. Moshood I would think about it. I decided to pray. I called one of my prayer partners but as soon as I mentioned the name Udom Emmanuel, he interjected: “I know Udom Emmanuel" and recommended him very well.

The word of God says from the mouth of two or three witnesses the truth of a matter shall be established (2 Corinthians 13:1). That was how I came to work with Gov Udom Emmanuel as his presidential spokesperson. Had he been given the PDP flag, the result, I dare to say, would have been different. But hope deferred is not hope denied! Coming with him to Akwa Ibom while the campaign lasted, I saw more than Ibom Air. I saw the coconut oil factory and when the sample I took to Lagos with me got exhausted, my wife moaned. I was again in Akwa Ibom from Monday, 22nd May to the stepping down of Udom Emmanuel as governor and the inauguration of the new governor, Pastor Umo Bassey Eno, on Monday the 29th May to honour this special breed of a leader that we call, in Yoruba, “akanda eniyan” (specially made by God). All the superlatives that were deployed to describe him as he commissioned one project after another were, in my view, well deserved. His record of achievements are astounding, to say the least.

I have since added Udom Emmanuel’s name to those of JAMB Registrar, Prof. Ishaq Oloyede, NDLEA’s Gen. Mohammed Buba Marwa, and retired but not tired judge of the Kogi State High Court, Justice Alaba Omolaye-Ajileye as public officials who, having performed creditably well in their given assignments, deserve a place in the government of competency that our brand-new president, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has promised to run. I dare to say that Akwa Ibom has been fortunate and privileged to offer Udom Emmanuel the pedestal on which to showcase the stuff of which he is made. Like Archimedes said: "Give me a place to stand, and a lever long enough, and I will move the world” For Udom Emmanuel, Akwa Ibom was that "place to stand". His record of achievements was the "lever long enough".

But it was not a bed of roses for the former governor; Nigeria’s political landscape is strewn with charlatans, petty jealousies, acrimony, blatant lying and the now-famous PHD (pull-him-down syndrome). There was a tinge of sadness in Udom’s voice as he narrated his experience on this score, first at the valedictory thanksgiving service and dedication of the International Christian Worship Centre and later the same day at his end-of-term media parley. He was miffed at the deliberate destruction of facilities provided at great cost for the benefit of the same people destroying them for political or selfish reasons. The strife between communities over boundary issues which his mapping policy was meant to address was deliberately misinterpreted by political detractors and ignorant people to cause mayhem and destroy projects meant to provide jobs and enhance the state’s economic fortunes.

 Udom knelt down on the altar at the International Christian Worship Centre and decreed: “No evil man, no wicked man will rule over Akwa Ibom” Turning to his successor, Pastor Umo Eno, he passed until him the same mantle of grace that had been upon him (Udom) for eight years in which the state enjoyed unparallel peace, attested to by even the man on the street. The service was still ongoing when news came that Udom Emmanuel has been conferred with the national honours of Commander of the Order of the Niger (CON). Udom and his wife Dr. Martha Udom Emmanuel were also honoured by the Christian community. 

At the media parley, Udom passed this message across to the people: “You cannot have a better state than yours”. So people should stop deliberately putting their state of origin down to score cheap political points. Satisfied with his efforts which have made many to refer to him as the architect of modern Akwa Ibom state, Udom declared: “I am leaving this state better than I met it ''. He was confident his investment in human and capital development would stand the test of time      

These days Nigerians flock to Dubai but hear what a citizen of that country said about Nigeria and Dubai in a post that has gone viral: “If you compare Nigeria with Dubai, listen to this: Nigeria has (crude) oil before Dubai. They are richer than us. They have agriculture, they have mining, they have everything, you name it; they have it. Am I right or wrong? When you have true leadership – which we have – we have nothing but we have everything because we have the right leadership. That is the only thing you need – a right leader for your country... That is what brings your country to the top. You don't need anything (else). We don't have water; we don't have agriculture; we don't have mining...” It could not have been better put!

That, in a nutshell, is the real value we must attach to the likes of Udom Emmanuel – providing the right leadership - which he demonstrated in Akwa Ibom. So, the last may not have been heard of this banker-turned-politician. His next bus stop lies ahead - in the womb of time.

In a show of desperation (some would say cowardice) at the polling station in Daura on 25th February, former President Muhammadu Buhari displayed his ballot paper after exercising his franchise. The unusual gesture – which goes against the spirit of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) guidelines – was a not-so-subtle signal to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu that he (Buhari) had kept his side of the bargain. Just in case the election did not favour his party. It was certainly understandable. Stripped of all pretensions, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was carefully constructed by Tinubu for the goal of reaching the presidency after Buhari. That was the meaning of the ‘Emilokan’ outburst at a time people around the former president were plotting to throw Tinubu under the bus. But now that he has arrived at his final political destination, the question is: What does Tinubu want to do with Nigeria?  

Let’s be clear. President Tinubu comes to the office with a sense of foreboding. This is the first time under the current democratic dispensation that a presidential election winner secured less than 50 percent of the votes. In his own case, Tinubu secured less than 40 percent of the total votes cast because, also for the first time, there were four major political parties in contention. Like the Second Republic when Alhaji Shehu Shagari won with 33 percent of the votes. This election has also left the country divided along ethno-religious lines. That a Yorubaman is president again after eight years of Olusegun Obasanjo and eight years of Yemi Osinbajo as vice president presents its own peculiar problem in a nation that we have all been conditioned to believe rests on a tripodal WaZoBia political construct. But the issue now is that the kingmaker has wangled his way to the throne at a most difficult period in our history.   

In his (in)famous declaration in Abeokuta, Ogun State capital, on 1^st June last year, Tinubu said what could have upended his ambition.“If not me that led the warfront, Buhari wouldn’t have emerged. He contested the first time; he lost. He contested a second time and lost again. He contested a third time and still lost,” said Tinubu in a speech that depicted someone going for broke. “This time, it’s Yoruba’s turn. And it’s my turn.” That ‘Emilokan’ slogan which echoes both a sense of entitlement as well as an offensive condescension was enough to end Tinubu’s ambition. That he mocked a sitting African president in the process made his case even worse. But like many of the scandals he has survived, the angry retorts spoken in a moment of frustration may have helped Tinubu’s cause.   

But whatever anybody’s preference, Tinubu is now the president of Nigeria. Unless the court says otherwise. Beyond the healing process that must begin, he also has two tough but critical decisions to make on the economic front: removal of fuel subsidy and getting the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to merge the exchange rates that has left scandalous arbitrage for fat cats. Vice President Kashim Shettima said on Tuesday that “it is either we get rid of subsidy, or the fuel subsidy gets rid of the Nigerian nation. In 2022, we spent $10billion subsidizing the ostentatious lifestyle of the upper class of the society because you and I benefit 90% from the oil subsidy. The poor 40% of Nigerians benefit very little. And we know the consequences of unveiling a masquerade.” Shettima could not have presented the situation better and that is exactly what some of us have been saying for the past two decades. But because everything lasts forever on the internet, to borrow a famous saying, Tinubu’s words are now coming back to haunt him. 

Following the removal of subsidy by President Goodluck Jonathan on 1^st January 2012, Tinubu authored a statement where he argued that the decision was taken “with an arrogant wave of the hand as if issuing a minor regulation”; and “because of the terrible substance of the decision and the haughty style of its enactment, the people feel betrayed and angry.” The same is now being said of the “fuel subsidy is gone” line in Tinubu’s inauguration speech which created chaos at fuel stations before yesterday’s decision that has almost tripled the pump price of petrol. “Government would have us believe that every hardship it manufactures for the people to endure is a good thing. This is a lie. The hardships they thrust upon the poor often bear no other purpose than to keep them poor. This is such a time”, Tinubu wrote 11 years ago apparently oblivious to the fact that a day like this would come.   

When in January last year Tinubu told State House Correspondents that being president was a lifelong ambition, I wrote at the time that it was more than a Freudian slip. Tinubu has spent the past 16 years since leaving office as Lagos State Governor pursuing this ambition. In his memoir, ‘My Participations’, former Osun State Governor and founding chairman of the APC, Chief Bisi Akande (who is perhaps the closest politician to Tinubu), confirmed that the ambition indeed dates to 2007, with the formation of the Action Congress (AC). “We agreed that (former Vice President) Atiku Abubakar should be our presidential candidate and we had the understanding that he would run with Bola Tinubu. I was the chairman of the AC. One day, after we had nominated Atiku as our presidential candidate, one young man came and gave me a form from INEC. I told him I could not sign a blank form and that I, as the chairman, must know the name that would be filled in it” wrote Akande who explained the intrigues that led to Atiku dropping Tinubu as running mate 15 years ago. “Segun Osoba, Niyi Adebayo and Lam Adesina had earlier met Atiku, and we proposed to him our choice of Tinubu, and he promised to come back to us. He gave us a date. On that date, we all assembled. Atiku came with Audu Ogbeh, Tom Ikimi and Usman Bugaje. We proposed that Tinubu should be the running mate, though Tinubu was not at the meeting. Atiku would not give us an immediate answer. He said he wanted to have more consultations.”   

At that period, there were forces around Atiku who believed the choice of Tinubu, a fellow Muslim, would present a problem and Akande named them. “Ikimi, Ogbeh and others were all strongly against Tinubu, because they said it would mean a Muslim-Muslim ticket. We deadlocked over that. Atiku never said anything. We left the meeting. What prompted us was that anytime we said we needed money, Atiku would say Bola please help us. Bola was the only one spending money among us. The rest of us were poor. Tinubu also put all his energy and resources into the formation of the AC, and we felt he deserved a spot on the ticket. We discussed with Bola on this, and he said we should discuss it with Atiku. It was after we were deadlocked that they brought me the blank form. So, Atiku ran with (Dr Ben) Obi and failed. Only Lagos State from Southwest voted for Atiku.”  

Despite the failure of that project in 2007, Tinubu never wavered on his presidential ambition. Incidentally, I have had several interactions with Tinubu over the past three decades but the one I remember most vividly occurred on 16^th November 2016. In writing my book, ‘Against the Run of Play: How an Incumbent President was defeated in Nigeria’, I spoke to many of the principal characters, including Tinubu. In the more than two hours I spent with him that day in Lagos, Tinubu made it clear that the idea of the APC was for him to be running mate to Buhari, ostensibly with a plan to use that as a ladder for the number one job. Akande also corroborated that in his memoir.   

When in 2015 people around Buhari suggested a committee to assess possible running mate candidates after the presidential primaries, Akande saw it as a betrayal of Tinubu: “Adams Oshiomhole, the Governor of Edo State, stood up and said we were being dishonest. He said he was a serving governor and many of those in the Elders Committee had been governors. ‘Did we set up a committee to give us our running mates?’ he asked. ‘It is not fair!’ I came to know later that some people constituted themselves into a group, called the Northern Interest Group, and they prevailed on Buhari not to allow a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Some governors from the far North were involved in this group. The following day after the Elders’ committee meeting, which was deadlocked, Buhari phoned Tinubu. He said he would like Tinubu to give him three names from which he would pick a running mate. We were all in Abuja and Tinubu rushed to me with this information. He wanted to know whether the understanding we reached with Buhari had changed. I called Buhari and he told me he now needed three names from us. I was angry with him. ‘General, this was not what we agreed upon,’ I said in annoyance. ‘You are changing our agreement?’. He knew I was getting angry. He said he was under pressure from some governors from the North, including (those) who were Muslims. I told him the slot belonged to the Southwest and among the Yoruba, religion is not a factor in leadership. ‘That is the burden the north has brought to national politics!’ He did not like my remark but kept quiet about it…”  

Before I conclude, it is important to hear what Akande has to say about the person of Tinubu.“In struggles, Bola is always resolute against all difficult circumstances. In fighting, Bola demonstrates consistent courage and resilience. He is a powerful and strong political mobiliser, a fierce and ferocious fighter such that he generally and quickly generates tension around himself when poised for a fight to the embarrassing confusion of those who might have enjoyed his pleasantness and generosity. In any war, apart from battles of deadly weapons, it would be safer to persuade Tinubu to fight on your side. If you allow him to fight on the other side, even if you are winning the initial battles, you cannot be sure of winning the peace thereafter.”  

Akande is not done: “Tinubu carries his business sense too often into his political decisions. He always feels too strongly about his own (sometimes, peculiar) political views and ways, but his presentations and utterances appear constantly underplayed by smarting too often under heavy burdens of human demands and public pressure. Tinubu is a difficult personality; very complicated for me to classify. He revels in controversies but constantly suppresses attendant difficult pains of disappointments and betrayals by consuming cups of strong espresso (coffee) and chains of cigarettes. However, he is a man of exceptional quick reflexes who has interpretations for different and alternating moods of others around him with instinctive striving and sensitive hormones. For whoever he senses negatively, he detests, condemns and, if possible, fights ferociously; for others in his positive antenna, he admires, protects, and defends with passion. Bola Tinubu is blindly generous and dangerously humorous.”   

That in a nutshell is the man who now carries the burden of Nigeria on his fragile frame. I have written several critical columns about Tinubu. One of them, just a two-paragraph piece, ‘Tinubu should watch it’ elicited an angry response from my friend Sunday Dare (until a few days ago the Minister of Sports and Youth Development under Buhari) who was then Tinubu’s spokesman. But I am one of those who believe that there are positives from Tinubu’s stewardship in Lagos that would serve us in Nigeria. What critics often ignore is that we are talking about a huge population cramped into a small space (for instance, Niger State is more than 21 times the size of Lagos State in landmass). I crave the indulgence of readers to take a few excerpts from what I wrote in November 2015: “I am quite aware of the sundry allegations that have for years dogged tax administration in Lagos, especially regarding who the actual beneficiaries are as well as other questions that border on transparency and accountability in the management of the state’s finances. Those are important issues that would have to be addressed. Notwithstanding, in terms of the primacy of ideas for modern governance, Lagos remains the model by which Nigeria can work and due credit must be given to Tinubu as the pioneer in that direction.   

“When people complain about Lagos, it is because they have not paid attention to its huge population, the enormous challenges and what is no more than meagre resources, even with all the internally generated revenues. The question really is how the situation would have been if Lagos was, like other states, dependent on oil revenues. One fact most people also ignore is that Lagos, according to Governor Akinwunmi Ambode contributes significantly to the federal purse with over 65 percent of Nigeria’s non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 60 percent of value-added manufacturing.  

“In his cabinet appointments, Tinubu went for talents. For the record, Tinubu’s commissioners included Yemi Osinbajo, SAN, (former vice president); Olawale Edun who had worked in the Wall Street firms of Lehman Brothers and Chase Manhattan Capital Markets Corporation in New York and the World Bank/IFC in Washington DC; Olayemi Cardoso who started his career in 1981 at Citibank; renowned architect, Mr. Lanre Towry-Coker and several other accomplished professionals like Leke Pitan, Ben Akabueze, Tunji Bello and Oladele Alake.   

“The Lagos model has its own contradictions that would have to be resolved in the overall interest of the people of the state and that of the actors themselves. But if Nigeria is ever to develop an economy that is less dependent on oil rent, the Lagos model is the way to go. The success recorded in Lagos under Tinubu and (Babatunde Raji) Fashola especially owe largely to their very keen understanding of the immediate needs of the people—free flow of traffic, infrastructure that is tolerably acceptable, improved environmental sanitation and a reasonable level of security. They went ahead first to address these needs in a demonstrable and visible way before evolving taxation mechanisms. It would be recalled that as Tinubu set about fixing potholes on many Lagos roads, there was always a signage that said, ‘YOUR TAX MONEY AT WORK’. The same went with most other public work projects.  

“When the tax man eventually came calling, most people were able to see the relationship between the increased demand for taxation and the sense of responsibility of their government. This remains the clearest demonstration in recent Nigerian history of the dictum that dictates a correlation between taxation and representation…”  

I wrote that eight years ago when I had no idea that Tinubu would ever be president of Nigeria. Now that he has achieved his ‘lifelong ambition’, we wait to see what kind of president he would be. Yes, Lagos under Tinubu was not perfect but by putting the right people in the right places, enduring reforms were made in several sectors and the state is now the better for it. But all factors considered, Tinubu is a very lucky man. Despite what Nigerians know (and do not know) about him, he is now our President. Therefore, in moments of introspection, Tinubu must admit that Nigeria has given him so much. And to whom much is given, much is expected. I wish him all the best in his new assignment.    

Dokpesi: An Impactful Life  

From Agenebode, Edo State to Ibadan, Oyo State capital, before the sojourn in Poland and the political adventure in Yola, Adamawa State in the early eighties, the late Dr Raymond Dokpesi, as I wrote in the blurb to his memoir last year, lived according to the timeless injunctions of Misty Gibbs: He was bold, he took risks, and was perpetually on the move. It was therefore with sadness that I heard about his death on Monday.  

Although we had been ‘neighbours’ for more than a decade, I had no relationship with Dokpesi. But two things happened in the last three years. First, his wife and African Independent Television (AIT) Managing Director, Mrs Oluwatosin Dokpesi took special interest in the free education project for indigent children (Not Forgotten Initiative) of my wife and has been rendering invaluable support. And then two years ago, I was approached by two respected senior colleagues, Messrs Bayo Bodunrin and Okoh Aihe to help read through the draft of their authorised biography of Dokpesi, ‘The Handkerchief’. It was a task I accepted without hesitation. The hefty cheque that accompanied the letter of appreciation that followed from Mrs Dokpesi indicated that the late DAAR Communications chairman knew about my intervention. Thereafter, Dokpesi called me to initiate what became a friendship until he died. 

Despite the circumstances of birth and the travails of formative years, Dokpesi rose against all odds to accomplish so much in 71 years. Not only did he pioneer private radio and television stations in Nigeria, but he was also one of the first persons to venture into indigenous shipping line on the continent with ‘Africa Ocean Line’. And he was barely 30 at the time. I commiserate with his family. May God grant him eternal rest.  

• You can follow me on my Twitter handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com   

Some people who know me well often argue that everything that I do or say is deliberate and that, when asked, I often have a reason for what I do or say. You may not agree with my reason, but you will recognise or accept that I do have a reason for whatever I do and I generally will not change my position unless a superior argument emerges and/or new facts come to light.

If the foregoing sounds like I am describing myself, then you missed the point - it is one of the most powerful things that I learnt from the late Otunba Balogun, the Founder of First City Monument Bank (FCMB). I am referring here to the dogged and unrelenting pursuit of his dreams/ideas. He literarily obtained FCMB’s banking licence by wearing down his detractors and the naysayers.

Like Otunba or hate him, if he took an “inflexible” position, then invariably he had a good reason for it. His actions were never random, thoughtless or meaningless. If you thought any of them were, then you never knew the man - the Colossus, in his lifetime.

So why do I address this tribute to "Otunba Balogun" and not to "Otunba Subomi Balogun" or "Otunba Michael Olasubonmi Balogun”? Of course, it is deliberate. It is because, during the last two decades of his life, I never needed to explain to anybody which Balogun I was referring to if I mentioned "Otunba Balogun". Nobody ever asked me a follow-up question such as: "Which Otunba Balogun are you referring to”? I am not aiming to be disrespectful to others bearing the Balogun surname. Nor have I checked if indeed there is or was another Balogun who was also an Otunba. It is unnecessary, because context matters in life. If I was also an investment banker and a younger Bank CEO and/or Bank Chairman for periods that overlapped with part of Otunba Balogun's own tenure as a Bank CEO and/or a Bank Chairman, then there are no prizes for guessing that there was only one Otunba Balogun in my own life and industry circles.

There is no second Otunba Balogun in my life and industry circle and there can never be, because my own banking career is essentially over, save for sitting on the boards of Standard Bank Group Limited (parent company of Stanbic IBTC Holdings PLC) and The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited.

Apart from having a good reason for everything that he did, Otunba Balogun obviously had both "style" and "confidence" in enormous proportions. He believed he could move mountains - and he often did.

Long before IBTC (now Stanbic IBTC) was formed in February 1989, Otunba Balogun once offered me a job. I sat with him for one hour - we had lunch together. It was essentially a job interview over lunch. We discussed succession planning and other sensitive matters. It would suffice to say we both realised and agreed that his idea could not work. We parted as friends and remained friends ever since, even though we were not mates by any stretch of the imagination.

In due course there was healthy competition and Investment Banking rivalry between FCMB and IBTC throughout the 1990s, but it was born out of mutual respect and therefore never got nasty - Otunba made sure of that.

Goodbye Grandmaster.

You came, you saw and you conquered. ������

--------------------------------

Atedo Peterside is the President & Founder of Anap Foundation and the Founder of Stanbic IBTC Bank PLC

Twitter: @AtedoPeterside

I can hear prayers binding the devil and declaring that today’s journey will lead not to nowhere, not to hell or to the witchy world of grief and anguish. The prayer will be answered only if the new regime breaks ranks with the Buhari tragedy and the personal flaws and failings of the principal characters on the new stage. How is that possible? In a government that will run well and end well, there must be certain ingredients in its leadership: “trustworthiness, fairness, unassuming behaviour, capacity to listen, open-mindedness, sensitivity to people, sensitivity to situations, good judgment, broadmindedness, flexibility and adaptability, the capacity to make sound and timely decisions, the capacity to motivate, sense of urgency, and initiative, initiative, and initiative.” This list of essential attributes I took from G.R.K Murty (2009) who paraphrased Marvin Bower in his ‘The Will to Lead’. Now, did you see a single item from that list on Nigeria’s leadership menu in the eight years of Muhammadu Buhari? His review would have been positive if he had had a space for just two of those demands. But, no; the man had his own priorities and they were selfish and sectional. It is only operatives and direct beneficiaries of the outgoing regime that will swear they saw equity or fairness or competence in the leadership experience that is expiring today. We wait to see which of those items Tinubu is bringing to the table.”

There is a road in Canada that is officially known as ‘Road to Nowhere’. Road signs there say so. At the terminal point of that road is virtually nothing apart from an access to a shooting range and a gated path that leads also to nowhere. A political journey can mirror a cruise on that road. There is also a popular town in Norway officially called Hell; the road to that town is the Road to Hell. In Oyo State, Nigeria, there is a town called Ilu Aje (town of witches); the road to that town is paved with misery. Each of these places has a history behind the weirdness of the name it bears. Road to Nowhere. There is a rock song of that title too. Its supposed writer and Talking Heads singer, David Byrne, told Q magazine in 1992 that the song is “about how there’s no order and no plan and no scheme to life and death and it doesn’t mean anything, but it’s all right.” Those words sound so much like the Nigerian experience with democracy. It has not been pleasant for the peasant, yet the chorus is “it’s alright.”

Another leg of the journey starts today. A new president, complete with his own cabal, takes charge of Nigeria. In every home, the unasked question is: The journey which these people are starting with us today, where is it taking us? Igbó rèé, ònà rèé. It could be ‘Nowhere’; it may be ‘Somewhere’, the choice is for the driver to make.

I can hear prayers binding the devil and declaring that today’s journey will lead not to nowhere, not to hell or to the witchy world of grief and anguish. The prayer will be answered only if the new regime breaks ranks with the Buhari tragedy and the personal flaws and failings of the principal characters on the new stage. How is that possible? In a government that will run well and end well, there must be certain ingredients in its leadership: “trustworthiness, fairness, unassuming behaviour, capacity to listen, open-mindedness, sensitivity to people, sensitivity to situations, good judgment, broadmindedness, flexibility and adaptability, the capacity to make sound and timely decisions, the capacity to motivate, sense of urgency, and initiative, initiative, and initiative.” This list of essential attributes I took from G.R.K Murty (2009) who paraphrased Marvin Bower in his ‘The Will to Lead’. Now, did you see a single item from that list on Nigeria’s leadership menu in the eight years of Muhammadu Buhari? His review would have been positive if he had had a space for just two of those demands. But, no; the man had his own priorities and they were selfish and sectional. It is only operatives and direct beneficiaries of the outgoing regime that will swear they saw equity or fairness or competence in the leadership experience that is expiring today. We wait to see which of those items Tinubu is bringing to the table.

From the frenzy I see around Bola Tinubu who takes over today, it appears that everyone holding the hem of his garment has a personal reason for doing so. They await the “So help me God” end-line of his oath of office for them to unfurl their ensign of claims without objections. That is an expressway to failure. Real lovers of the new president should tell him that personal and institutional rebirth is the sacrifice. What will matter ultimately is how he uses what he has just got to cleanse Nigeria of its bad head.

There is also something about a government engine that is run on grudges, bitterness and vengeance. The Buhari regime had more than a full tank of that toxic fuel. There was an unreported meeting between President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Muhammadu Buhari shortly after the General from Daura became president of Nigeria in 2015. At that meeting, the old reportedly told the new to forget and forgive anyone who might have hurt him in the past: “Now that you have become president with the support of everybody, it is time for you to forgive everyone who might have hurt you in the past.”

The host casts a serpentine look at his guest and asks: “including Ibrahim?”

“Yes, especially Ibrahim,” the guest responds, curtly.

The new man bites his lips, nods and changes the topic.

The ‘Ibrahim’ in that conversation is Ibrahim Babangida, the man who sacked Buhari in August 1985. Someone very close to two of the three actors told me that story days after the encounter. He had no reason to make it up.

You remember how General Buhari spoke repeatedly with bitterness about losing power in 1985 and his subsequent detention. The man simply could not imagine his new power ignoring a vengeance that was just thirty years old. He wanted a pound of flesh but apparently, he realized the folly of his kite going after the fox. He talked to himself or he listened to the big boss. But because hawks feed on preys, there were other victims. You remember how he spent his eight years not tired of mentioning his repeated failures to be president in 2003, 2007 and 2011 and how the courts failed him. He eventually became president and the courts got raided and thoroughly whipped. Can you remember too how the outgoing president described the South-East as a dot in a circle? You remember his reference to Igbos of the South-East as those who gave him just “five percent” of the votes that made him president in 2015? You remember how that unfortunate comment dictated government policies and alienated that part of the country permanently from Buhari and his government – and how he did not care? And, please do not forget that there was no pervasive agitation for secession in the East until official vengeful alienation burst the people’s long pipe of endurance. A new regime comes in today; it will succeed only if it stops talking about continuity, charts its own course and brings the country together under the roof of fairness and equity.

Vengeful leaders lead into the gully; they hurt their nation and their people. They destroy themselves too and cancel everything that recommends them for leadership. That explains the thought of the elders who say revenge destroys the seeker. In William Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice (Act 3; Scene 1), we see Salerio asking implacable Shylock what he wants to do with a pound of Antonio’s flesh. What is it “good for?” He is asked and Shylock replies that it will “feed” his “revenge.” He says Antonio “hath disgraced me and hindered me half a million…” So why would he not sink his cleaver knife into his debtor’s thigh and go to bed in a meaty mirth? Let no one tell him not to do it; he will do it because he is human: He says: “If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not take revenge?” Shylock promises to “execute” and “go hard” and “better” others in doing wrong. He thinks revenge and vengeance are the way of a world which forgets nothing good, nothing bad. And, because he is fixated on revenge and will not listen to wise counsel, he ends disgracefully.

Instead of Tinubu looking for a list of enemies to hurt, his friends should advise him to draw up a list of things to do to heal Nigeria. He should look at the North especially. Anyone that will fix Nigeria has northern Nigeria to fix first. The North is Nigeria’s problem incubator. Particularly because of the North, the population of Nigeria is projected to hit 400 million in the year 2050. At about half of that figure today, 133 million of the population are multi-dimensionally poor. It can only get worse. If the North is not saved from itself and from its ways, the country is doomed and whatever government or president comes in today is doomed as well. UNICEF’s current statistics says that “one in every five of the world’s out-of-school children is in Nigeria.” The North gives Nigeria that dubious reputation. The brand of religion that is practised there is nowhere else in the world – not even in Afghanistan. In May 2017, the Sultan of Sokoto told a gathering of northern Muslims in Kaduna to end Almajiri and embrace education. “Almajiri does not represent Islam but hunger and poverty. Almajiri system of begging does not represent Islam and must therefore be distinguished from Islam. Islam encourages scholarship and entrepreneurship and frowns on laziness and idleness as exemplified by itinerant Almajiri. Therefore, attempts must be made to stop the practice of the Almajiri system of begging among Muslim faithful.” That was from the Sultan six years ago. What has changed? Nothing, except that the uneducated children of the past have grown to master assault rifles to demand their share of Nigeria. Is it not said that an untrained child will not fear God and will not live righteously? The untrimmed Iroko has grown wild; it now demands sacrifices from the state.

Three years ago, the Sultan cried out again that the North was the worst place to live in Nigeria. The North is not safe, he said. “In fact, it is the worst place to be in this country. Bandits go round in the villages, households and markets with their AK-47 and nobody is challenging them,” Sultan Abubakar told a meeting of Nigeria’s Inter-Religious Council (NIREC) in Abuja in November 2020. You cannot have a vast region of misery and lawlessness as the North and have peace of mind. My people say the child that is not built will sell the house that is built. We saw how the joy of the multibillion naira Abuja-Kaduna rail service was destroyed by the North’s children of the forest. That is what you get where priorities are not right and the vehicle of state faces where the world backs. If the North remains a region of subjects without citizens, there cannot be peace in Nigeria. If it remains a vast desert of the uneducated poor, banditry will not end. It, in fact, will spread and it is spreading anguish already from the North to the South.

Coming down south, the West will always fix itself. But the Tinubu presidency is putting the ‘pesky’ Yoruba elite on trial. Like debauched widow-inheritors, they are upbeat that it is their turn to fill/feel the space and build castles on Mars. The world waits to see if they will stop saying that Nigeria, as it is, needs restructuring because it is fundamentally defective. We won’t keep quiet. Leaving Nigeria in the hands of its abductors is leaving the proverbial madman to roast his mother’s corpse; he will endanger all of us with the entrails. Tinubu’s friends should keep reminding him that the foundation is the most critical part of a building. If Tinubu and his victorious people say from today that they are satisfied with ugly, decrepit Nigeria because they are the latest inheritors of the estate, we should be around and we will be available to remind them that those who negotiated Nigeria had wisdom and saw clearly that the chemistry of the Nigerian soil was not balanced; they insisted on what they knew was safe for all. The negotiators of Nigeria knew that a wrong foundational decision would give them a building with a fissured base; a house that would endanger everyone; that would soon sink and collapse under a weight it was not designed to carry. The founding fathers considered everything and rejected a multi-storey unitary Nigeria with an emperor reigning in the penthouse. They opted for a federation of manageable low-rise structures in the Nigerian estate. Angels of confusion soon systematically converted what we inherited to a choking, poorly constructed skyscraper without elevators and with a foundation cracking under a weight it cannot carry to success and safety. The structure today chokes and puts all of us in harm’s way. History will pat Tinubu on the back if he surprises himself and rebuilds the house using the original plan of the architects.

There is an undeclared civil war going on in the East. People get killed daily, the murderers are not known, the state shrugs its shoulders, it picks its teeth and belches. But the crisis is an ill-wind that should not become a firestorm. Smothering the fire should be a deliberate agenda of the new regime. Equity and fairness in a restructured Nigeria appears the only remedy here. If the Igbo say they want Senate presidency and if you won’t support their aspiration, Tinubu, please don’t oppose them. If Nigeria fixes the East with the tools of equity, the country will have the mouth to tell the Igbo man to embrace peace. And, really, the alternative to peace is misery in unimaginable proportions.

Nigeria has a generation of angry youths who want a Nigeria that is safe and prosperous. They worked for candidates they believed would work for their future; they did very hard work to birth their dream nation. They came out disappointed and angry and are watching what is unfolding. They need to be convinced that with what we have as a country, elections can be nuts with kernels.

Tinubu is leaving Bourdillon, Lagos and will be the Lion of Aso Rock for four years – or for eight years – at the end of which a Daniel will come to judgment. He will be judged not by the number of roads or bridges he built; he will be judged by how well he tamed his own personal foibles; how well he detoxified northern Nigeria, settled the quarrel between the Igbo man and Nigeria and got the entire country rebuilt for the wellness of all. If the country, however, remains its odious, unwashed self after Bola Tinubu’s regime, he would have tragically proved right the millions opposed to his person, his politics and his methods, particularly the feudal rungs he took to the throne.

I hear you have questions. So do I. What does fuel subsidy removal really mean today? How much will a litre of petrol sell for? Does Dangote Refinery make any difference? How about inflation? These are the first round of questions from President Bola Tinubu’s inaugural speech on Monday. In this article, I will attempt an answer based on the economics of fuel subsidies and the politics of the nation, Nigeria. 

In an almost poetic fashion, Tinubu stood before Nigerians at Eagle Square and said “On fuel subsidy, unfortunately, the budget before I assumed office is that no provision is there for fuel subsidy. So fuel subsidy is gone.” Like magic, minutes after the declaration, the prose that is fuel queues resurfaced nationwide. Prices also began to jump.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, petrol was sold for an average of N254.06 per litre in April 2022. Today, after the speech, it sold for as high as N500, with speculations of prices going as high as N750 in the coming days. But what can we expect?

HERE’S HOW PETROL PRICING WORKS

Based on Tinubu’s speech, not much changes in the pricing template — just the subsidy bit is removed. Let me explain with lessons from the past. In 2016, when the first subsidy removal was implemented by the Muhammadu Buhari administration, the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) released its new pricing template, which showed that two components make up the petrol price: landing cost and distribution cost.

At the time, the landing cost of one litre of petrol was N119.74, while the distribution cost was N18.37 per litre. This brought the total pump price to N138.11. PPPRA mandated fuel stations to sell between N135 to N145 per litre. Here, there was zero subsidy.

Along the line, the landing cost changed, following the increase in oil prices globally. The landing cost crossed N119.74, and distribution cost was slightly impacted, and total pump price exceeded the N145 mark PPPRA had set. In order not to lose money, fuel stations refused to sell. This led to fuel scarcity. So the government quietly reintroduced subsidy and tried to keep prices at N145, by paying the excess. This was not sustainable.

So in 2021, a new pricing template was “erroneously” published by PPPRA. It showed landing cost had jumped from N119.74 to N189.61 and the distribution cost moved from N18.37 to N23, bringing the total price to N212.61 per litre at the pumps.

Government then applied some subsidy, which allowed Nigerians to buy for about N165 per litre at the time — not the market price of N212.61.

In 2023, the landing cost and the distribution cost have changed, but the biggest change has been in the structure of the state oil company, which has now become NNPC Limited, and no longer has the absolute power to fix prices. The distribution cost today should be about N30 to N35 per litre, while the landing cost is where the conversation is.

The landing cost when the last PPPRA template was published in 2021 was $561.96 per metric ton. Today, this price is between $680 and $750 per metric ton. This should naturally bring the new landing cost per litre to N266 per litre. Add distribution cost, the expected pump price should be N296 per litre without subsidy.

All of this is based on the assumption that $1 is N403.80. This brings us to the second round of questions: What did Tinubu mean by unifying the exchange rate? How much will $1 sell for at the official market? What impact will that have on fuel prices and everything else?

TINUBU’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICY

The president said his government “shall ensure that investors and foreign businesses repatriate their hard earned dividends and profits home,” adding that “monetary policy needs thorough house cleaning. The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate”.

This immediately signals a free market system, where the real value of the naira to the dollar is employed across board. It suggests that no one will get $1 for N461 while another gets the same for N770, which is fair. But fair has consequences; the first of which may be the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS).

Tinubu’s FX policy will likely mean a devaluation of the naira on the official side of the market. Bloomberg had previously reported an expected 15% to 20% devaluation, which will put the naira around N530 to N550 at the official market. Others are suggesting N600 per dollar if any real unification of exchange rates will be achieved.

Whatever the case is, the final decision will impact the landing cost of petrol from the international market. This may lead to an increase of anywhere between 15% to 40%. At a 40% devaluation of the naira (from N403 per dollar), which is expected to be the worst-case scenario, a litre of petrol should sell for about N415. Hence, all the predictions of N650 and N750 per litre are quite the stretch.

DOES DANGOTE REFINERY CHANGE ANYTHING?

On a good day, yes. But maybe not the pump price of petrol. The first sure thing we can count on Dangote for is support for a reasonable foreign exchange policy. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) figures, Nigeria spends almost $7 billion every year importing petrol, this totalled $36.3 billion in five short years.

That $7 billion in foreign exchange could be reduced to zero dollars per year — if Dangote Refinery agrees to be paid in naira. This will ease up pressure on the local currency. But will this be the case seeing Dangote took some dollar-denominated loans to fund the refinery?

The second benefit we can claim is freight cost. According to PPPRA, it cost Nigeria $22 to import one metric ton of refined oil from Europe to Nigeria. This translates to about N7 for every litre of petrol. With us buying refined petrol from Ibeju Lekki, that cost could go to near zero, further reducing pump price.

I generally recommend that we wait for clearer policy direction from the Tinubu administration, and for Dangote Refinery to sell its first litre of petrol, before we make final conclusions. I hope this helped.

Today, Nigeria stands ragged and worn out on the global highway. Should it look back at the last eight years and try to make sense of the rough road it had been dragged through? Or simply pick itself up and face the future?

The misfortune of the last eight years that was the Buhari regime was foretold. No, not by a fortune teller who might have degrees of in-exactitude. But by the exactitude of lived history. A history that opened the book of remembrance reminding us that this taciturn general who was being propped up on stilts of profane propaganda, wrapped in the borrowed robes of a democrat and falsely presented as an unmatched fighter against corruption, is the same man who for 20 months from 1984 subjected the country to terrors of military misrule.

In 2014, there was Economic Commission of Africa, ECA, conference in Marrakesh, Morocco and we were some two dozen Nigerians attending from across the globe. We had a joint lunch to discuss the approaching 2015 presidential election. I argued that given his past service, Buhari was not a fit candidate. Part of my arguments were that as Military Head of State, he had no atom of respect for peoples’ rights or the rule of law. I cited his anti-media Decree 4 of 1984 in which the publication of falsehood or truth were criminal offences and two journalists were actually jailed under that decree.

There were retroactive laws under which, for instance, three young Nigerians were tied to the stakes and shot for drug trafficking, a crime that did not attract capital punishment when it was committed. I cited his indefinite closure of the country’s borders for no logical or economic reasons, his change of currency which led to much hardship and huge losses as many Nigerians could not change their old currencies due to very poor planning by government. I questioned the integrity he was flaunting; how come he was unable to account for his tenure as Chairman of Abacha regime’s Petroleum Trust Fund? After discussions, the group agreed that the country will be better without a Buhari presidency.

Indeed, how can a country like Nigeria which produced its first university graduate, Olu Atuwase, in 1611, be bogged down with whether candidate Buhari has school certificate or not?

As President, his government failed woefully on security matters. Bandits had so much free rein that it became dangerous to travel in any part of the country. He came into office wondering how a government worth its salt would allow students to be abducted in school as happened in Chibok. But under his administration, we lost count of the number of schools sacked with students abducted. In 2021 alone, students, including children, were abducted from schools in places like Kagara, Afaka, Greenfield (Kaduna) Maranban Damishi and Yauri. Some states like Benue, Plateau and Zamfara have become killing fields.

In terms of welfare, we have never had it so bad with an annual inflation average of 20 per cent. Yes, Buhari increased the National Minimum Wage from N18,000 to N30,000 but in terms of value, the pre-Buhari wage was far higher. For instance, in 2015 a bag of rice was N6,500, now it is N45,000. So while the N18,000 wage could buy about three bags of rice, the N30,000 minimum wage can only buy two thirds of a bag.

I am not saying that Buhari did nothing positive in the last eight years as President; but if a pupil scores an overall 10 per cent in examinations, he cannot declare himself a genius. Therefore, when Buhari in bidding Nigerians farewell declares that he ran a good race as President and had a “sense of fulfilment”, he is merely being delusional.

In a sense I feel sorry for him. Whatever legacy he thought he had over the decades, have been destroyed by the poor advice he accepted to run for the presidency. That was after he had wisely declared in public, following three consecutive electoral defeats, that he would never contest again.

Whatever was left of his much vaunted integrity was completely incinerated three days before leaving office when his government enacted the sickening drama of launching a bogus airline using a company that is still in gestation.

Another of his integrity deficits is that in his second term, he forgot to carry out the annual audit of the country’s accounts. Of course, we have not forgotten that in claiming that he had carried out an agriculture revolution in Nigeria, his regime constructed some wooden pyramids in Abuja, decorated them with bags of rice and falsely claimed Nigeria was now producing rice pyramids like the groundnut pyramids of the colonial era which we exported. Still on agriculture, bandits have so made the country unsafe that many farmers have abandoned the farms and become internally displaced persons.

By the way, what was the hurry in Buhari declaring open the private Dangote refinery two months before the plant is supposed to be ready for preliminary refining?

As part of his farewell speeches, Buhari praised former military ruler General Sani Abacha. This is not surprising because even when the funds Abacha looted are being returned by various Western governments, Buhari says Abacha never stole. He also praised outgoing Customs and Excise boss, retired Colonel Hamid Ali. Some of us see Ali as that military governor of Kaduna State who without following rules, procedures or engaging in discussions, arbitrarily sacked some 23,000 civil servants in the state. We see him as that officer whose name propped up in the Abacha phantom coups designed to eliminate opponents.

Nigerians could hardly wait for this May 29, 2023 date when Buhari departs, and, the mass of the people can, hopefully, begin to breathe properly again. But admittedly, this is mutual. He himself has expressed a number of times that he could hardly wait to flee the Presidency and return to Daura where he has, at the expense of other parts of the country, stacked resources and institutions. He told us in his last week as President that he is in so much hurry to return to the cows he left in Daura in order to tend to the Nigerian people.

There may be a plethora of reasons for this, but an obvious one is that cows can be used as beasts of burden and they hardly complain. Buhari also told us that if we worry him in Daura with complaints, he would relocate to neigbouring Niger Republic which he claims will defend and protect him. So much for a retired Nigerian General who stakes a claim to being a patriot. Goodbyes are usually difficult; Nigerians say goodbye to retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Parade dismissed!

Nigerians all over the world took cognisance of the celebration of the inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima. Although a few Nigerians and foreign dignitaries graced the occasion, most Nigerians were glued to their TV, watching the event widely covered in national and international media. Chief Justice of the Federation Justice, Olukayode Ariwoola GCON, swore in both the President and the Vice President about 11.00a.m.

After the swearing-in ceremony, the President, Ahmed Bola Tinubu, made a speech outlining the overarching philosophy and principles that will govern his presidency and the core areas of focus for the government. A cursory review of his inaugural address will highlight his thinking and possible policy thrust in the coming days and years. This bird’s eye view into his mind will help analysts to predict areas this administration may focus on and how this administration will operate.
The President used his inaugural speech to make promises to Nigerians at home and abroad. These promises form the foundations of analysing his administration and holding him accountable to the people. Although in the past, most presidents have not lived up to their promises, Nigerians still hold sacred such promises they make. We still remember the memorable phrase of President Buhari in 2015 when he promised that he belongs “to everybody and I belong to nobody”.

Whenever Buhari was seen as not being nationalist, people reminded him of his promise. Ahmed Bola Tinubu has made some promises to Nigeria, and Nigerians will hold him accountable for those promises. The President stated that his “administration shall govern on your behalf but never rule over you”. This is the overarching philosophy of this administration. This implies that the President is adopting a “servant” analogy in defining his approach to leadership. He is a “serving” president, not a “ruling” one.

Therefore, he will eschew all dictatorial tendencies and adopt the basic democratic philosophy of dialogue, consultation, and negotiation.

The supremacy of the people and law is a paramount ideology in this administration. This philosophy aligns with all democratic tenets and, if adopted by this administration, will deepen our democracy.

The President embraces all Nigerians irrespective of political affiliations, religious background, and ethnic affinity, for he adopts a new Nigerian Ideal that means that “all I see are Nigerians”, as claimed by the President. He further posits: “As your president, I shall serve with prejudice toward none but compassion and amity towards all”. This Nigerian ideal goes beyond economic and structural development. It embraces the improvement of “our way of life in a manner that nurtures our humanity, encourages compassion toward one another, and duly rewards our collective effort to resolve the social ills that seek to divide us”.

The humanity and personal qualities of the President are seen in his vowing to act without discrimination toward anybody but will show compassion and love to all. He is the father of the nation and will look after all. The President is the President of all of Nigeria and, therefore, he belongs to all Nigerians. To demonstrate this quality of brotherhood of Nigerians, he extended the hands of friendship to all other presidential candidates to work with him.

Fundamental principles that will guide this administration are (a) the reign of the constitution and the rule of law, (b) defending Nigeria from terror and criminality, (c) remodelling the economy for growth through job creation and food security,( d) prominence of women and youths,( e) and champion a credit culture.

These principles are not idealistic but practical, and they are not just psychological and emotional but very concrete. These guiding principles will influence the actions and inactions of this administration in line with its vision for the country. We hope that even in difficult times during this administration, it will abide by these principles articulated in this speech. Principles lay the boundaries for actions and inactions guiding all to a better outcome. In line with the Nigerian constitution and the country’s guiding laws, this administration’s mission is to strengthen “the bonds of economic collaboration, social cohesion, and cultural understanding, and develop a shared sense of fairness and equity”. This mission will reflect in all the policies and projects of this administration, and only by so doing will it achieve its vision of economic and social emancipation in Nigeria.

Breaking down this mission into deliverables is crucial to the success of this administration. This administration must articulate appropriate strategies and tactics to use various policies, programmes, and projects in a coordinated manner to achieve set goals, objectives, and vision. The President promises to focus on core areas that Nigeria is in dire need of fixing.

The President promised that security would be the “top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence”. This administration will revamp and renew the security doctrine and architecture and invest in security personnel and equipment.

This administration will target a higher GDP growth rate whilst increasing the GDP per capita. It will achieve this through budgetary reforms, industrial policy reform to favour local manufacturing, improvement in power generation, transmission, and distribution, and encouraging local and foreign investors through investor-friendly policies. These are essential areas, but we know that the devil is in the detail and implementation. 

The President should get a good economic team to translate these economic goals into reality. Unemployment is the bane of Nigeria, and youth unemployment is the catalyst for many social ills and criminality in the country. We must tackle this evil head-on. The President promised that his administration would create meaningful opportunities for the youth by creating one million jobs in the digital economy. The administration will create a Jobs and Prosperity bill to be the policy architect for job creation through labour-intensive infrastructural improvements. This administration must look beyond the digital economy to other sectors. The entertainment industry has been growing and has excellent potential. So are the creative arts, telecommunication technology, financial industry, and health.

We must not only boost the skill base for these sectors for local industries, but we must be ready to produce enough to export high-skill human resources to the world. The impact of such exportation on our economy is significant and is easily seen in diaspora remittances each year. Food security is vital because a hungry nation is an angry nation. This administration promises to create “commodity exchange boards guaranteeing minimal prices for certain crops and animal products” and provide storage facilities to reduce spoilage and waste. It will develop agricultural hubs to increase food production and processing.

This administration will continue the infrastructural development of the Buhari administration by building more roads, rails, and ports. The subsidy removal policy is upheld, and its funds will be re-channelled to investments in public infrastructure, education, and health. The government will strive to reduce interest rates and unify the exchange rate between the official and the black market whilst reviewing the currency swap programme. We uphold these policies and hope that their implementation will benefit all Nigerians.

Besides, this administration’s dominant foreign policy ideology centres on maintaining peace and stability in the West African sub-region and the African continent. It will work with regional and continental supra-institutions such as ECOWAS, AU, and other international organisations to end extant conflicts. Nigeria will be at the forefront of containing threats to peace in the continent and actively lead the continent’s quest for growth and prosperity.

As we celebrate the inauguration of a new president, we should meditate and reflect on the President’s promises to the nation and actively task him to fulfill these promises. We are all waiting to see the details of the direction of this administration, and we hope that it will be transparent in sharing the ideas they want to put in motion to change Nigeria. We welcome this new administration, and I implore all patriots to cooperate with this administration and join hands with our new leaders to build a new Nigeria that will be the pride of all of us. 

Yesterday, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, was sworn in as the 16th President, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria along with his Vice President, Kashim Shettima, GCON, at the 7th major transition ceremony since the return of Nigeria to civilian democratic rule in 1999. The event was held at the Eagle Square, Abuja. For decades an episodic military interregnum placed Nigeria in dire straits but 1999 was a turning point for the country. Yesterday’s event was a further confirmation of how Nigeria has managed in the last 24 years, to sustain democratic rule, despite the challenges. Yesterday, May 29, marked the end of an era, and the beginning of another. For about two weeks, President Muhammadu Buhari, as he then was, and his family had been moved to the Glass House. For those who do not know the configuration of the Presidential Villa, the Glass House is a small bungalow, a meeting place, a three bed-room structure, where when a President is in power, he holds occasional meetings, usually of the high state security variety, but when a President is on his way out, he and his family are moved to that small space.

The usual excuse is that the main Villa is undergoing renovation to allow access for the in-coming President and his family who would have taken over the renovation of the residence, the choice of furniture, the selection of dinner-ware, and the arrangement of the seat of power. The more symbolic part of the diplomacy here, is that the Glass House is located very close to the exit and entrance to the Official Residence. One of the major aspects of the theory and practice of diplomacy is symbolic representation. Moving the outgoing President close to a smaller space and very close to the exit gate such as The Glass House at the Presidential Villa, is a subtle reminder that the time is up, the game is over, and that both the President and his family can begin to readjust psychologically. The President and his “main body” (I once explained what this means in this column) would leave the Villa on the morning of the hand-over straight to the Eagle Square, and go through the process of the inauguration of a new term, the main highlights of which are: the handing over of the instruments of governance to a new team, the change of military colours from the old to the new, and the swearing-in protocols in line with Constitutional provisions.

The convoy that takes the President to the Eagle Square would immediately shift to the new President. It is that convoy that will take the new President and the new First lady and their team back to the Villa. A standby protocol team, a different, pared-down convoy, takes the outgoing President to the airport, straight to his new destination as a former President, that is - his home-town. As soon as he is accompanied back home, the same convoy withdraws immediately to Abuja, and reports to the new dispensation. Nigerians are very cynical about how they go about this end of tenure protocol. This being an APC-to-APC transition, President Buhari may well have been allowed privileges that would be denied an outgoing opposition President. In our time in 2015, I can say categorically, that some of the state officials who left with us from State House to Eagle Square did not even bother to follow us to the Airport. They simply melted into the Buhari crowd. Many of them were looking for re-appointments. When we got to the Airport, we were locked out of the Presidential Lounge. The then outgoing President and his departing entourage had to loiter around in an outer space, before we all eventually had to board the aircraft to Bayelsa. The boys who had the keys to the Presidential Lounge had vanished. They became unidentifiable. This was the same Lounge we had used only a week earlier. President Buhari was of course not subjected to such embarrassment yesterday as the reports have shown and that means with his party holding on to power, he has enjoyed the pleasure of a respectful exit. He probably did not even bother to wait awhile at the airport.

This explains all the triumphal ceremonies that we have witnessed beyond state protocol and etiquettes in the last few days in the lead up to the arrival of the new administration. There was much that was beyond the control of the state establishment. Outgoing Ministers brought masquerades to organize and serenade their own farewells. The National Association of Witches and Wizards delivered on their promise that they would be on the ground before May 29 to ensure that there would be no disruptions. Senator Shehu Sani has quipped on Twitter that he was surprised that the witches and wizards were seen in buses, entering Abuja: why didn’t they fly into Abuja with their “osoro moniga” wings? The witches and wizards of Nigeria probably knew better. But now we know that witches and wizards also board buses and trains, and that expands our fears and anxieties. They even staged a street demonstration in support of Tinubu and Shettima. Was February 25, 2023, a witchcraft exercise? Not surprisingly, the Christian leaders of Nigeria have spoken up with Pastor Paul Enenche (Dunamis International Church) quoted as proclaiming that Christian leaders are in charge. What a country! On the eve of the handing over ceremony in Nigeria, we had to be reminded again that religion is a major, divisive issue in this country. It has always been. Nigerian politics is dominated by religion, ethnicity, and every possible centrifugal factor in the books.

Nonetheless, on May 28, on the eve of his departure, President Muhammadu Buhari gave a farewell speech in which he told Nigerians that Tinubu is the best candidate among all candidates and that Nigerians have chosen well. He praised the aggrieved political parties and candidates for choosing “to go to court” and advised that they should accept “the decision of our courts”. Whatever the courts decide, it is obvious that some of the political stakeholders would remain inconsolable as they have shown in their reactions to the ruling on whether or not the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its then Vice Presidential candidate, were guilty of double nomination under Sections 35 and 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2022. Costs were awarded against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The Court dismissed the PDP as “a busy body and a meddlesome interloper.” Similarly, the request by the Labour Party that the proceedings at the Presidential Election Tribunal should be televised was dismissed as impossible because there is no such provision in the law. There has been an attempt by the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal to respond to the pressures being mounted in certain quarters that election petitions should be determined expeditiously, and this: when the Tribunal asked the political parties involved in the dispute to consolidate their petitions and that the court would treat the petitions together.

Still the Tribunal has until September 16 before the 180 days provided for in Section 285 of the 1999 Constitution expires. Thereafter, appeals before the Supreme Court have a time-frame of an additional 60 days. We are looking, it seems, at some time before the end of the year. By then, the Tinubu administration would have settled in nicely. Ministers would have been appointed; over 5, 000 possibilities for political patronage would have been explored and fixed. Already, some of the persons who worked on the Tinubu/Shettima campaign have been given national honours in the former President’s last superintendence over that state function. The Supreme Court being a court of public policy is not likely to rock the boat. With what we saw yesterday at the inauguration ceremonies in Abuja, the pomp, the pageantry, the colourful transfer of power, witnessed by leaders from all over the world, even with China, United States and Venezuela whose Vice President was in attendance, it would take an earthquake to uproot the APC from the Presidential Villa. But would that discourage those who have raised serious objections and who do not agree that Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the best candidate on February 25? President Buhari cannot be so sure. The worst that may well happen is that one or two of the most vociferous Presidential candidates would be “offered something” in Nigerian parlance and they would go quiet. The inauguration would be a test of integrity and character on all fronts.

Nobody should be surprised if any Presidential candidate in the last elections accepts the position of a Senior Special Assistant or a Minister. It would be rationalized by his allies that he is committed to serving Nigeria. Others may just accept financial settlements and keep quiet thereafter. In this same country, we have seen former Ministers at the Federal level who went back to their states to serve as errand boys and girls. Opportunism is that other factor that drives Nigerian politics, not ideology, hardly common sense. Indeed, no one should be surprised if the National Association of Witches and Wizards also shows up to demand a seat in the Federal Executive Council!

One other point of interest is the following excerpt from the outgone President’s broadcast at 7 am on Sunday, May 28. “I am leaving behind an electoral process that guarantees that votes count, results are credible, elections are fair and transparent and the influence of money in politics is reduced to the barest minimum. And Nigerians can elect leaders of their choice.” I can hear loud yawns…Yesterday’s inauguration, however, moved Nigeria quickly forward as President Buhari returned to Daura to attend to his cows and sheep, who, he tells us, are better behaved than Nigerians. But while preparing to leave, within two weeks, he had signed more than 11 bills, leaving out the Sexual Harassment Bill. He awarded National Honours to over 340 persons. He re-named airports after historical figures. He took the sole credit for the Second Niger Bridge and the Dangote Refinery. He also got the National Assembly to amend the CBN Act to push ways and means from the 5% threshold to 15% and he pushed the responsibility for removing fuel subsidy to the Tinubu administration. He is now in Daura, probably laughing at us.

The ball is now in Tinubu’s court. His campaign was based on the slogan: “Emilokan”, now the subject of academic inquiries, including an international research project to which I have been invited to make a contribution. “Emilokan” means “It is my turn.” And now it is his turn at the helm of affairs in Nigeria. The Godfather who is now King. A defined life ambition achieved. He refers to it as a “SUBLIME” moment for our country where “a better future emerges with our improved capacity to create that future”. He promised “to mend and heal this nation, not tear and injure it”. He extended his hands of fellowship to all who contested against him in the political process across all divides. “For me, political coloration has faded away. All I see are Nigerians… you are all my people”. This is an APC President who says he belongs to everybody, and hopefully, this one will not compare us to cows and sheep!

His inauguration speech went further to outline and define his understanding of what he called “the new Nigerian Ideal” in the shape of principles and priorities: Security, the economy, jobs, agriculture, infrastructure, fuel subsidy, monetary policy. President Tinubu had not yet finished his speech before the news networks ran with the headline: “Breaking News; Tinubu Removes Fuel Subsidy.” I have tried to take a look at that inauguration speech again. Is there a categorical statement as to the removal of fuel subsidy? Students of language should go back to that paragraph on fuel subsidy and break it down. Compare same to the paragraph on Infrastructure which begins with “We shall…” Go further to the paragraph on “Monetary Policy” and pay attention to the use of the word “need” and “needs”. We are told: “The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate”. Must work towards? Candidly, a well-written piece from the point of view of presidential rhetoric by some guys who believe that they are smart, but there is nothing concrete here that anyone can hold on to. The devil is in the details. If the President has decided to remove fuel subsidy, he must do so in more elaborate details and offer concrete information as to how he intends to go about it. How? When? But just see right on Day One, the confusion that the lack of clarity has caused. What are the key contributions that the Tinubu team has put on the table? Which Central Bank is going to unify the exchange rates? What are the plans to deal with fiscal deficit and debt burden? Sound bites are not enough. While the key sound bites about fuel subsidy removal and a unified exchange rate would give hope to the international financial system that had always asked Nigeria to adopt orthodox economic policies across board, the real taste of the pudding is in the outcome for average Nigerians.

We are dealing however, with people who understand the game of power. If Buhari and his CPC/ANPP wing of the coalition that drove the PDP out of power in 2015, and held on to it for eight years, thought they all got it worked out now, the ACN wing of that coalition and probably the most powerful wing of it, has taken over power. We look forward to the internal drama within the APC superstructure, as the party tries to balance expectations within the party. Beyond that, has anyone noticed that the Yoruba establishment is suddenly aligning with Tinubu? Even those Yoruba leaders who threatened to go on exile have publicly said that they are no longer going anywhere, and that they have forgiven him. When a group of Yoruba ultra-nationalists stormed a radio station, Amuludun FM, in Ibadan over the weekend, trying to reject Nigeria, they were arrested and promptly disowned by the Oodua Nation leadership. A Yoruba man is now President again, Oodua leaders don’t want anybody re-enacting “The Mystery Gunman” incident of the 1960s. The assailants have been paraded in the full glare of cameras even if it is illegal to do so.

We have been told that Tinubu will hit the ground running. He has enough capacity to make quick announcements with regard to key personnel. But the important thing is how he intends to build that “Ideal Nigeria” with all the rot that the Buharists are trying to cover up, and how to fulfil the promise of hope and unity. The journey ahead belongs to us all, whatever shape it assumes. Even with all that excitable, celebratory dancing by the President and VP yesterday, the road may be rough.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu (middle) being congratulated by Chief Judge of the State, Hon. Justice Kazeem Alogba (left) while the wife of the governor, Dr (Mrs) Ibijoke watches in admiration, during the inauguration of Governor Sanwo-Olu for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, signing his Oath of Office while his wife, Dr (Mrs) Ibijoke (second left) and their children, watch during the inauguration of Governor Sanwo-Olu for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu (fourth left), followed by his wife, Dr (Mrs) Ibijoke; wife of the Deputy Governor, Mrs Oluremi Hamzat; Dr Obafemi Hamzat; Chief Judge of the State, Hon. Justice Kazeem Alogba (left) and family members during the inauguration of Governor Sanwo-Olu/Deputy Governor Hamzat for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu (left) and Deputy Governor, Dr Obafemi Hamzat congratulate each other after being sworn-in for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.