Amid widespread criticism over the recent defection of a federal lawmaker to the All Progressives Congress (APC), reports indicate that the ruling party is strategizing to lure additional lawmakers from the Senate to strengthen its numbers in the Red Chamber.

Last week, Ajang Iliya, who represents Jos South/Jos East Federal Constituency in Plateau State, announced his defection to the APC, becoming the sixth Labour Party (LP) lawmaker to leave the party. Other defectors include Tochukwu Okere (Imo), Donatus Mathew (Kaduna), Bassey Akiba (Cross River), Iyawe Esosa (Edo), and Daulyop Fom (Plateau).

A source within the APC national secretariat disclosed to the Nigerian Tribune that discussions are ongoing with two of the five LP senators regarding their potential defection. While the source did not name the senators, it was revealed that they are from the South-East region.

“They have opened discussions with the APC zonal leadership. Their defection will be given the same fanfare at the party’s national secretariat, just as we warmly received late Ifeanyi Ubah when he left the Young Peoples Party (YPP),” the source explained.

The Nigerian Tribune further learned that out of the five LP senators, three hail from the South-East: Okechukwu Ezea (Enugu North), Victor Umeh (Anambra Central), and Tony Nwoye (Anambra North). The other two LP senators are Ireti Kingibe (Federal Capital Territory) and Neda Imasuen (Edo South).

It is worth noting that last June, Senator Francis Ezenwa Onyewuchi, representing Imo East, left the LP for the APC. In his defection letter, read during a plenary session, he cited internal divisions within the opposition party as his reason for leaving.

Currently, the Senate comprises 63 APC lawmakers, 34 from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and two each from the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP). The LP holds five seats, bringing the total to 107. Two seats remain vacant, including Edo Central, after Senator Monday Okpebholo assumed office as the Edo State governor. Additionally, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, who represented Anambra South, passed away in July.

Meanwhile, members of the Labour Party’s National Assembly caucus are set to hold a meeting at the National Assembly to address the ongoing defections and other pressing issues.

“We are meeting tomorrow (today) to review recent events in our party,” a federal lawmaker from the LP told the Nigerian Tribune. When asked if he was considering defection, he declined to confirm, stating, “I don’t know yet. I don’t think I want to discuss that for now.”

[NaijaNews]

Citizens have said they are expecting more developmental projects and programmes from governors following the increases in the fiscal estimates proposed for the 2025 by various state governments.

Analysis by Daily Trust showed that 32 of the 36 governors have proposed a total sum of N21.9 trillion in the appropriation bills presented to their state assemblies.

This showed that the 2025 budgets of the states are about 31 per cent higher than those of 2024 which were N16.15 trillion.

Daily Trust findings show that the governors of Imo, Kebbi, Kwara and Rivers states have not presented 2025 budgets.

For the 2025 fiscal proposals of other 32 states, there are a total of N14.35 trillion for capital expenditure and N7.56 trillion for recurrent.

A geo-political analysis of the budget estimates for 2025 indicated that South West had the highest (N6.15 trillion), followed by the North West (N3.78 trillion,) South South (N3.68 trillion), North Central (N3.18 trillion), South East (N2.72 trillion) and North East (N2.38 trillion).

Lagos State has the highest budget estimate of N3 trillion, with N1.76 trillion for capital expenditure and N1.23 trillion for recurrent.

Ogun State proposed N1.05 trillion budget, consisting of N600.9 billion capital expenditure and N453.56 billion for recurrent expenditure.

Others are Niger State (N1.2 trillion): N1.01 trillion for capital and N188.42bn for recurrent; Enugu State (N971 billion): N837.9 billion for capital and N133.1 billion for recurrent; Akwa Ibom State (N955 billion): N655 billion for capital and N300 billion for recurrent; Delta State (N936 billion): with N587bn capital expenditure and 348bn recurrent; Kaduna State (N790 billion): N553 billion capital and N236.6 billion.

Abia State proposed N750.282 billion out of which N611.7 billion is for capital expenditure and N138.8 billion for recurrent; Jigawa (N698.3 billion): N534.76 billion capital and N161.75 billion recurrent; Bayelsa State (N689.4 billion): N426 billion capital and N263.38 billion recurrent; Katsina State (N682 billion): N524.2 billion capital and N157.9 billion recurrent; Oyo State (N678 billion): N349.29 capital and N325.57 billion recurrent; Ondo (N655.23 billion): N406.3 billion capital and N248.92 billion recurrent; Anambra (N607 billion): N139.5 billion recurrent and N467.5 billion capital; Edo State (N605 billion): N223 billion recurrent and N381 billion capital.

Borno State proposed N584 billion budget estimates with N380.84 billion for capital expenditure and N203.92 billion for recurrent expenditure; Kogi (N582.4 billion): N302.8 billion capital and N279.6 billion recurrent; Benue (N550.1 billion): N175.4 billion recurrent and N374.7 billion capital; Kano (N549 billion): N236.5 billion capital and N312.6 billion recurrent; Zamfara (N545.01 billion): N151.6 billion recurrent and N393.3 billion capital; Sokoto (N526.8 billion): N349.4 billion capital and N176.3 billion recurrent.

Cross River State proposed N498 billion budget estimates with N328 billion for capital expenditure and N170 billion for recurrent; Plateau State (N471 billion): N269.6 billion capital and N202 billion recurrent;         Bauchi (N465.855 billion): N282.3 billion capital and N183 billion recurrent; Taraba (N429.8 billion): N266.12 billion capital and N163.78 billion recurrent.

Ebonyi State proposed N396.59 billion budget estimate with N284.5 billion capital expenditure and N112 billion recurrent; Osun (N390.028 billion): N246 billion recurrent and N144 billion capital; Nasarawa (N382.57 billion): N222.6 billion capital and N159.97 billion recurrent; Ekiti (N375.79 billion): N183.5 billion recurrent and N192.3 billion capital.

Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa have lowest budget estimates

Yobe State is among the top three states with the lowest budget estimates for 2025 as it proposed N320.8 billion with N176.8 billion capital and N144 billion recurrent; followed by Gombe (N320.1 billion): N209.02 billion capital and N111.09 billion recurrent; Adamawa  (N268.8 billion): N100 billion recurrent and N168.8 billion capital.

Our expectations on 2025 budgets – Citizens

Nigerians from various states, who spoke to our correspondents, shared their thoughts on the proposed budgets.

While some are hopeful that the budgets would bring much-needed improvements, others are sceptical.

Even though they mostly admitted the impact which inflation might have on the projections, they, nonetheless, called for prudence and transparency on the side of the governors to achieve the desired results.

Mustapha Isa Fagge, a civil servant in Kano, asked the government to fulfil its promises to improve the quality of infrastructure in schools.

“I personally believe that the government has what it takes to restore the lost glory of our schools. They should provide teaching kits and improve the salaries of teachers. They can do this by ruling out needless spending,” he said.

Abdulmajid Abdullahi Bako, who works with one of the hospitals in the state, said the governors have no excuse not to perform.

“Subsidy has been removed, and the governors are receiving a lot of money. When they were about to remove the subsidy, we were told it was only benefitting the rich; and that the proceeds will now be channelled towards improving the life of the poor.

“It is now approaching two years; we want to see the benefit. Our governors should justify the money they are collecting by working hard to improve our life,” he said.

Muhammad Nasiru, a retired teacher in the state, urged the government to prioritise workers and pensioners’ welfare, given the rising cost of living.

Some residents of Kaduna said they want to see the impact of the N790 billion budget estimates on security, infrastructure and education.

Alhaji Muhammadu Lawal Maikudi, asked the state government to improve the lives of citizens.

Lagos residents wanted the over N3 trillion budget estimates to have a greater focus on education and infrastructure development.

Comrade Joseph Evah, a school proprietor, said the education sector must be prioritised to address overcrowding in classrooms and other challenges.

An entrepreneur, Bukola Arubuola, urged the Lagos State government to execute road projects in order to ease traffic and create jobs for the youth.

A resident of Jos, Plateau State, Azi Peter and others, said their expectations are high, and asked the government to improve internal revenue generation, ensure funds are effectively allocated and monitor implementation of the budget to achieve tangible results.

In Bayelsa, citizens asked the state government to provide critical infrastructure, including potable water, stable electricity and better housing. David-West Beniwariy, a resident, wants the government to assess the performance of the 2024 budget before making promises for the 2025 fiscal year; while Godson Independence, a trader, urged the government to invest more in the gas turbines, given the unreliability of the national grid in the state, and provide free and affordable education.

In Akwa Ibom, Otuekong Franklyn Ison, Director, Centre for Human Rights and Accountability Network, tasked the government on diversification and development. He also said adequate funds should be provided for the state’s judiciary to ensure its effectiveness.

In Abeokuta, Ogun State, a resident, Mrs Abisola Adeyemi-Pedro, called for subsidised tuition fees for tertiary institutions and better school resources like chairs, tables and exercise books for primary and secondary schools. She also called for initiatives to attract foreign investments and create jobs.

Mr Alabi Ganiyu Akanni from Ipokia highlighted the pressing need for the construction of the Ijofin-Agosasa Road which, he said, had long hindered economic opportunities due to its status as a key border route with the Republic of Benin.

He also urged the state government to complete the Ogun State Polytechnic in Ipokia as the lack of a local tertiary institution had hindered the community’s access to higher education.

Govs should prioritise capital expenditure – Expert

In an interview with Daily Trust, the Executive Director of the Centre for Fiscal Transparency and Integrity Watch (CeFTIW), Umar Yakubu, asked states to prioritise capital expenditures in the 2025 fiscal year.

“If you raise your budget with the level of poverty at the subnational level, it is supposed to be mainly for capital expenditures because those capital expenditures will provide jobs, help the economy, support small and medium scale businesses and other things that will generate economic activity,” he said.

[Dailytrust]

Ahead of the 2027 general elections, the once vibral Labour Party, LP, appears to be losing steam and membership strength across the country.

DAILY POST reports that when the members-elect of the National Assembly were sworn in on 13 June, 2023, the LP had the third-largest caucus in the National Assembly, with 34 members in the House of Representatives and eight senators.

The ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, had the largest number of members, followed by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP.

The Peter Obi effect had transformed the relatively obscure Labour Party into a national force, particularly in the Southeast, South-South, North-Central, and Lagos.

The top-to-bottom voting pattern helped elect several Labour Party lawmakers who rode on Obi’s popularity.

Eighteen months later, the Labour Party caucus in the National Assembly is rapidly depleting.

This is due to court rulings that removed four members— Senator Darlington Nwakocha, Stainless Nwodo from Enugu, Emeka Nnamani from Abia, and Chijioke Okereke from Enugu and a wave of defections shaking the party.

In the last 10 days alone, the Labour Party has lost six members in the House of Representatives to the ruling APC.

Last week, four members— Chinedu Okere (Owerri Municipal/Owerri North/Owerri West Constituency), Mathew Donatus (Kaura Federal Constituency, Kaduna), Akiba Bassey (Calabar Municipal/Odukpani Constituency), and Esosa Iyawe (Oredo Federal Constituency, Edo), left the party on the same day.

This week, Dalyop Chollom and Alfred Ajang, both from Plateau State, abandoned “Mama, Papa, and Pikin” and embraced the APC’s “broom.”

Earlier in July, Senator Ezenwa Onyewuchi also defected from the Labour Party to the APC.

Unannounced Defections

DAILY POST gathered that several lawmakers in the House have defected without formally announcing it on the floor of the House.

For instance, some weeks ago, Thaddeus Atta, a Labour Party member, was spotted wearing a cap branded with President Bola Tinubu’s logo, fuelling rumours that he has joined the ruling party.

Most defecting lawmakers are citing the ongoing leadership crisis in the Labour Party to avoid sanctions under Section 68(g) of the 1999 Constitution, which stipulates that a defector’s seat should be declared vacant.

However, the law provides an exception in cases of division within the party. It provides thus:

“68. (1) A member of the Senate or the House of Representatives shall vacate their seat in the House if—

“being a person whose election to the House was sponsored by a political party, they become a member of another political party before the expiration of the term of the House, provided that the membership of the latter political party is due to a division in the former party or a merger of two or more parties or factions of which they were previously a member.”

The Labour Party has been battling an internal crisis between the National Working Committee (NWC) led by Julius Abure and another faction led by Governor Alex Otti of Abia State.

Party Reaction

The Julius Abure-led NWC released a statement on Wednesday, announcing that it has launched a court case against the six defecting lawmakers.

In a statement sent by its spokesperson, Obiora Ifoh, the party vowed to demand the return of all salaries, emoluments, and privileges received by the lawmakers since their defection.

“These defections are unfortunate and condemnable. Politicians who abandon their constituents during critical times expose themselves as untrustworthy and undeserving of future public confidence,” Ifoh stated.

In the House, the head of the Labour Party caucus, George Ozodinobi, has been using the 2027 elections a warning against defecting lawmakers.

“I want to wish those of us who think defecting from Labour to APC is their best decision in politics well. We look forward to meeting them again in 2027, if they have the opportunity to be here.

“And for those of us still contemplating moving to another party, we wish you well,” Ozodinobi said following the latest defection,” he said.

It is unclear whether the other faction will support the Abure-led NWC in its case against the defectors.

Uncertain Future

DAILY POST observed that many Labour Party members are uncertain about their future in the party due to the ongoing crisis and rumours of Peter Obi leaving the party to join the PDP.

Speculation about Obi’s intentions heightened some weeks ago when he met with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, fuelling rumours of a potential joint ticket in 2027.

The Numbers Game

As a result of the recent defections, the Labour Party’s presence in the National Assembly has significantly diminished.

The number of Labour Party senators has reduced from eight to six, while its members in the House of Representatives have dropped from 34 to 26.

In total, the party now has 32 lawmakers in the National Assembly. In comparison, the NNPP has 22 lawmakers.

If the Labour Party continues to lose members, it risks becoming the fourth-largest party in the National Assembly.

[DailyPost]

National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has stressed importance of continuous existence of Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND).

Speaking in Lagos at its 86th National Senate Sitting and Pre-convention, NANS Senate President, Babatunde Afeez, noted that TETFUND had impacted tertiary institutions in infrastructural development,  capacity building, research and innovative activities.

He said the agency should not be ‘tampered’ with for any reason, but be properly funded and managed by people, who are competent and with integrity to enable it to perform better.

He said a clarification was necessary regarding whether the proposed Tax Reform Bill would affect the agency.

“Every Nigerian knows importance of TETFUND in our schools as the agency’s projects are everywhere across campuses. We don’t know what would have happened in our campuses if TETFUND were not in existence. And that is why the agency should not be tampered with for any reason,” he said.

Akinteye said  no to fee hike again by any public school in the country, stressing  NELFUND’s loans or any other consideration can’t be used as yardstick to justify any fee increment. 

Earlier, National President of NANS, Lucky Emonefe, hailed students for their support and cooperation with the leadership of the union, assuring them of continuously serving their interests.

He said while TETFUND remains, NANS  would continue to sensitise members, who need help, to access NELFUND.

According to him, students need not know anybody before they can secure loan from NELFUND as its operations are fair and transparent.

Emonefe, while giving his administration’s score card in the last one year, he said the next national convention will hold in March in Abuja.

[TheNation

The family of the 81-year-old Pa Dennis Okugbaye, the treasurer of the Okuama community in the Ughelli South Local Government Area of Delta State, who died in military detention on December 10, 2024, have explained the circumstances surrounding his death.

The revelation came as the Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori and the military authorities have yet to make a statement six days after Pa Okugbaye died.

Family sources, who did not want their names mentioned for security reasons, told our correspondent that they paid N140,000 for fuel to the military to carry their sick father from Port Harcourt to Asaba.

The PUNCH gathered that Pa Okugbaye was being transported from Port Harcourt, Rivers State, by the military officers to 63 Brigade, Asaba, Delta State, when he allegedly died.

“We were told that our father is very sick and we should send N140,000 to buy fuel to transport him to Asaba so that we (the family) can take him to hospital.

“We sent the money and were told to come to 63 Brigade, Asaba to receive our father on Monday, December 9. They warned us that only his daughter would receive him.

“On Monday morning, we came to Asaba, then our sister moved to the military barrack, 63 Brigade, Asaba, to receive him but she was there till around 5 pm, no signal. We informed some of our leaders, including Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, of the development.

“We went back home, it was on Tuesday when we were calling to know the next step that we were told that our father died on the road when they were about to come,” the sources said.

They added that to date, the military authority or the governor had not called them over the development.

Pa Okugbaye’s death came barely a week after the death of the community President General, Pa James Oghoroko, in military detention.

The community leaders, Pa Oghoroko (now deceased), Pa Okugbaye (now deceased), Prof Arthur Ekpekpo, Chief Belvis Adogbo, Mrs Mabel Owhemu and Mr Dennis Malaka, were, between August 18 and 20, 2024, arrested by the army and had been kept incommunicado in detention without trial.

Their arrests followed the killing of 17 soldiers on a peace mission to resolve the tussle between Okuama and Okoloba communities on March 14, 2024.

Efforts to reach the Commissioner for Information, Dr Ifeanyi Osuoza and the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Mr Festus Ahon, failed as calls and messages sent to them were not responded to as of the time of filing this report.

A social critic, Mr Zik Gbemre, berated Oborevwori for his failure to call the army to order.

In a statement made available to journalists on Sunday, Gbemre said the reported death of two leaders of the Okuama community in military detention and the fear for the lives of four others still being held unlawfully exposed the worsening institutional failures.

“Oborevwori shying away from his duty to call the army to order in gross abuse of power in the state is very bad and shameful as the chief security officer of the state.

“In the last couple of days, what is happening in Delta is appalling, very shameful and inciting,” he said.

[Punch]

The Minister  of Labour and Employment, Dr Mohammed Maigari Digyadi, does not appear to have any idea why the Ministry exists. It is also possible that the Tinubu administration that appointed him has no clue why we have a ministry that takes care of both labour and employment.

The Ministry was created 85 years ago. The unemployed registered with it in employment  exchange locations  which helped secure employment.  Dr Timiebi Koripamo-Agary, one of the most cerebral Permanent Secretaries in our history, transformed this exchange into the Nigerian Electronic Labour Exchange.  After independence, the Ministry also sent Nigerian labour to countries like Equatorial Guinea.  Until today, under the Labour Act, it is the Ministry that issues recruiters licence.

It also created jobs and trained the unemployed in  various skills to enable them become self-employed and employable.  The Ministry has an arm, the National Directorate of Employment, NDE, with the motto: JOBS FOR ALL. The NDE which receives annual budgetary provisions, states that its primary objectives are “…providing  sustainable employment opportunities for Nigerians (and) creating  opportunities for sustainable  employment through  various programmes.” Specifically, under the Ministerial supervision  of  Digyadi, the NDE on its official site states that in line with President Tinubu’s Re-newed Hope Agenda, it is strengthening “…its role  in combating  poverty by providing sustainable employment opportunities  for Nigerians.”

So, you can imagine the shock when Minister Digyadi declared on November 28, 2024 that job creation is not part of the Ministry’s mandate. He told  Nigerians: “You will agree with me that the mandate of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment is never to give employment to people…As you are aware, the Ministry is not there to provide employment, because the former Minister of Youths and Sports (Sunday Dare), before he left, was asking me to give him jobs. I said we only create the environment for jobs. We don’t give jobs.”

It is clear Minister Digyadi is not conversant with the mandate of the Ministry. If he was not given the correct orientation,  it might mean that the Tinubu administration does not know better. As it is, the Ministry is a bird flying with one wing. Also, what many Nigerians may not know is that their elites have turned basic economics upside down, forcing it to walk on its head.   For instance, economics teaches that the  basic factors for siting an industry includes availability or proximity of raw materials, land, water, labour, capital, power, transportation and nearness to market.  All these factors are in favour of the Dangote Refinery.

Also, compared to foreign refineries, it sources local crude and, does not need to pay for freight, insurance, cargo discharge,  demurrage, storage,   port fees, NIMASA charges and Custom duties. Additionally, it has other derivatives from the crude it processes, including gasoline, kerosene, lubricating oils and bitumen.

Given these objective factors, the cost of a litre of locally produced fuel should be quite cheap. But  it is an average N1,100 compared to, say, war-torn Libya which is N50 per litre. The Nigerian cost is so  high that imported fuel is far cheaper. The Dangote refinery,  afraid that Nigerians would, naturally, buy the cheaper imported fuel,  went to  court  demanding that  the  licenses  issued to six private oil companies to  import fuel must be voided. Even when the NNPC claims that the public-owned Port Harcourt Refinery is now functional, its price range is same as Dangote which gives the impression that there is a price-fixing cartel at work.

Nigerians also do not know the exact shares they own in the Dangote refinery nor understand the role of the Tinubu administration. For instance, in July, 2024, it  instructed the NNPC  to engage Dangote  and other local refineries and  resolve their disputes, including selling crude to them in Naira.  Then some weeks later, the same administration issued a statement stating that  the: “PMS regime, has been deregulated. Dangote is a private company. NNPCL should not forget it’s a limited liability company. Whatever controversy both of them are having is their problem…It’s the consumer who benefits if a price war starts, if NNPC fuel is too much, the public market can go to the market and bring in their fuel and sell at the price that they think is very reasonable and profitable for them.” So, many Nigerians do not know if the Tinubu government is  for or against intervention.

There are  also cobwebs surrounding the claims by Chief Afe Babalola, SAN, that a younger lawyer, Dele Farotimi, defamed him in a book on the judiciary. For this, the police had invaded Farotim’s chambers, assaulted his staff, threatened two of his lawyers with guns and, virtually abducted the lawyer. Farotimi was first dragged in handcuffs before a Magistrate Court in Ado Ekiti, Chief Babalola’s hometown where he is so powerful that a special Afe Babalola Day has been reserved annually to honour him. The Magistrate denied Farotimi bail.

Later,  Inspector General of Police Kayode Egebtokun had Farotimi brought from prison to an high court to face new charges, this time for alleged  cybercrimes. Bail was granted in this case which Farotimi has not  perfected.  Then while still being held in prison, Babalola and his supporters  hauled Farotimi before courts in Abuja, Ibadan and Port Harcourt. The Babalola Chambers  additionally, petitioned  the Legal Practitioners  Disciplinary Committee  to remove Farotimi from the roll of Nigerian legal practitioners.  In all these, Chief Babalola refused to learn from  a younger  lawyer, Femi Falana, SAN, who when confronted with serious defamation, took out a civil suit rather than employ the repressive  state apparatus against his accuser.

The Babalola-Farotimi drama reminds me of a story I was told as a child.  Early one morning, villagers, on their way to farm and market, found the parrot   tied in front of his in-law’s house. They were told the parrot had been gossiping and making   disparaging comments against his in-law. Almost all blamed the parrot for his predicament. When they were returning in the evening, the villagers found that the parrot not only remained tied, but had now been put in a cage.

This time, they condemned the in-law for subjecting the parrot to torture and unbearable pain. They reminded the in-law  of a Yoruba saying that: “Aseju ni Baba asete”: meaning that excessive behaviour  or, anything done in excess, ultimately leads to disgrace.  They  said the fact that he seeks to make  his case does not mean he should exhaust all the saliva  in his mouth.   The villagers  reminded him that if people beg  the heavenly Egungun  masquerade, he listens, if they beg the Orisha god, he listens and if they beg God Almighty, he forgives; so, who is he, a mere mortal to insist on a pound of flesh?

As President Bola Tinubu prepares to present to the National Assembly tomorrow, the 2025 national budget largely saddled with funding by borrowings, the Federal Government (FG) is set to overshoot its domestic borrowing target for 2024 by N4 trillion, about 67 per cent above the budgeted amount.

These are coming despite the widespread concerns over the continued rise in the nation’s debt stock.
Details of the domestic borrowing activities of the government in the 11 months to November 2024 is already showing borrowing in excess of N2.93 trillion or 49 per cent above the target as of November.

Financial Vanguard findings showed that FG had borrowed N8.93 trillion from domestic investors in the eleven months from January to November, 11M’24, as against the N6 trillion planned for the whole year.
With this trend and other borrowing activities currently being executed, the FG may end up borrowing N10 trillion in 2024, 67 per cent above the target for the year.

Meanwhile, these are coming against the backdrop of FG’s plan to finance the 2025 budget deficit with domestic and external borrowings amounting to N9.22 trillion, 18 % higher than the N7.808 trillion for 2024.

The 2025 deficit budget according to the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning report would be financed “by new foreign and domestic borrowings of N9.22 trillion, N312.33 billion from Privatization Proceeds, and N3.55 trillion draw-downs on existing multilateral/bilateral project-tied loans. The deficit will largely be financed by domestic borrowings, considering the narrow window for external financing.”

Details of 11M’24 FG Securities

Breakdown of data from the Debt Management office, DMO, and the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, showed that in the third quarter, Q3,24 the Federal Government borrowed N2.134 trillion from domestic investors through the Nigeria Treasury Bills, NTBs, FGN Bonds, FGN Savings Bonds.

Borrowings through the NTBs auctions conducted by the CBN stood at N1.181 trillion, while FGN Bonds FGN Savings accounted for N939.246 billion and N14 billion respectively.

Further analysis showed that in October and November this year the Federal Government borrowed N774.953 billion through NTB; FGN Savings Bonds of N635.752 billion and FGN Savings Bond amounting to N7.152 billion.

Domestic Borrowing in H1’24

Meanwhile, according to the recent data released by the DMO, the Federal Government’s domestic debt stock for the first half of the year, HI’24, stood at N66.957 trillion, representing 38.6% growth from N48.314 trillion in HI’23.

CBN borrowings through NTBs rose to N11.8 trillion in HI’24 from N4.7 trillion in H1’23 and accounted for 17.64 % of the total FG’s borrowing.

FG’s borrowing through the monthly FGN Bond auctions, which constituted 78.13 % of total FG borrowing during the period, rose to N52.315 trillion in the HI’24 from N41.722 trillion in HI’23.

FG’s borrowing through Sukuk Bonds, which accounted for 1.6% of total FG domestic borrowing during the period, rose to N1.092 trillion in HI’24 from N742 billion in H1’23.

FG’s domestic borrowing through FGN Savings Bonds accounted for 0.08% of total FG’s borrowing during the period, also spiked, rising to N55.196 billion in H1’24 from N30.704 trillion in H1’23.

Analyts’ insight

Meanwhile, analysts and economy experts have stated that among other things the 49 per cent excess domestic borrowing by the FG in 11M’24 was also driven by investors’ response to the high interest rate regime during the period prompted by 875 basis points hike in the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR, by the CBN.

From 18.75 per cent in February, the CBN steadily raised the MPR to 27.5 per cent in November this year.
As a result, the interest rate on 364-Days NTBs rose to 22.93 per cent in November from 12 per cent at the beginning of the year, representing 11.91 percentage points increase from 4.44% in H1’23.

In the same vein, the average interest rate on FGN Savings Bond for 2 year tenor rose to 17.483% December 2024 from 12.287% in December 2023.

Reviewing the fiscal position in 2024, David Adonri, Analyst/ Executive Vice Chairman at Highcap Securities Limited, said: “To different elements in the economy, rising debt and rising yield on debt means different things. While the investor in debt is happy and smiling to his bank, corporate debt issuers are groaning because of the escalated cost of borrowing and the crowding-out effect of public borrowing.

”Above all, rising public debt signals an expansionary fiscal policy which is inimical to the effectiveness of tightened monetary policy.

”FGN is already in a debt trap, requiring new debt to service existing obligations. This leaves very limited financial resources for economic development. If the reckless piling of debt by FGN continues, a sovereign default might become imminent.

”Notwithstanding the influence of the high interest rate regime, the sharp rise in FG’s borrowing from domestic investors is inimical to the private sector as it makes it more costly for businesses to borrow.
”Also, the higher lending rates has led to inflationary pressures as the corporates have to increase prices to cover for the higher borrowing rates.

“With respect to monetary policy, whilst the Central Bank continues on its hawkish trend, we expect pressure from the government on the Central Bank as its debt service costs rise.
”The government cannot afford to borrow at these levels for an extended period of time. Government spending has also led to more pressure on the currency as it means more Naira available to chase the dollar.”

Continuing, he stated: “With respect to fiscal policy, we are yet to see the borrowing by the government to have an impact on fiscal policy. Yes, we have the Coastal roads being built, but we would like to see more with regards to policies to help increase production output in the economy.

”Also, we expect to see a significant increase in debt servicing costs, factoring in the higher rates and increase in domestic borrowing.”

Also speaking to Financial Vanguard on the situation, Victor Chiazor, Head of Research and Investment at Fidelity Securities Limited, FSL Securities Limited, said: “The government borrowing has fueled inflationary pressures.

”In addition there’s an indirect effect on exchange rates. Also, there’s the crowding out effect for private sector lending. As it is, not many businesses can afford to borrow at the elevated interest rate.
”Finally, the monetary policy response to all this may be to continue to raise interest rates in a bid to tame the spiraling inflation.”

Commenting as well, Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said: ”There is a general need to moderate borrowing so that it doesn’t overheat the economy.

“With respect to the implication for inflation, the deficit if financed properly may not be inflationary.
“Inflationary component of deficit financing often arises when CBN prints money to finance the deficit. That is when you have serious issues with inflation, because the money is now what you call high-powered money.

”But if it’s funded using bonds, treasury bills and other firms of borrowing, either from the public or from within the financial system, it is less inflationary.

“If the debt level continues to increase, of course it has a crowding out effect on the private sector. That means more of the credit in the economy will be going to the government as against the private sector, which is not a particularly good thing.

”So we need to worry about a trend of increasing domestic debt because of the risk of crowding out the private sector in the credit market.

“For fiscal policy, it’s a fiscal policy instrument. Borrowing is a fiscal policy issue; it’s used to fill the gap. Again, what is important is to maintain a sustainable ratio as far as borrowing is concerned, ratio of debt service to revenue, ratio of debt to GDP.”

In his own comment, Olatunde Amolegbe, former President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, CIS said: “For me, borrowing is a natural consequence of public expenditure if a country intends to grow. The question however is about what the debt is used for.

”I have always had reservations with borrowing to meet recurrent expenditure which is why I am more inclined towards infrastructure or project-tied debt that one is sure will go towards boosting economic growth and development.

”Of course the borrowing level and borrowing cost are high and this has negative implications for our finances as a country however in as much as the debt -GDP and debt-revenue continue to remain stable or even decline then debt sustainability should not be a problem.

”I suppose the increase in the volume of FGN’s borrowing we’ve seen month-on-month is driven by the attractive interest rate that they presently offer to investors. It means investors can invest as low as N10,000 and get interest rate of about 18% which they can’t get anywhere else. ”This can actually be seen through the prism of wealth distribution or empowerment.

”It is therefore not a problem per se but how the fund generated is put to use to enhance production. The private sector wants to see infrastructure that would help them reduce cost of production”.

Reacting as well,Tajudeen Olayinka, Investment Banker & Stockbroker stated: “I think the critical challenge there is the sustainability of debt as measured by (i) Debt to GDP Ratio, (ii) Debt to Revenue Ratio, (iii) Debt to Export Ratio.

”The more sustainable a country’s debt is, the less burdensome it becomes to the economy. Accordingly, Nigeria’s economy must become more productive in the immediate to near term for her to sustain the current level of debt stock. ”This should be the focus of the current administration, even though it inherited huge debt service to revenue ratio that had become unsustainable from the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

”A huge U.S. dollar denominated debt could be more threatening than a huge Naira debt.

”Government should therefore manage the country’s debt within the framework of debt sustainability.
”The growth in the stock of savings bond between 2023 and 2024 cannot be said to be life threatening. That segment of government securities market is known to be underperforming”.

The federal government had in the 2024 budget estimated N27.50 trillion total expenditure and N18.32 trillion revenue, leaving the FG with a N9.05 trillion fiscal deficit.

According to the FG, the fiscal deficit is expected to be financed by a combination of domestic borrowings (N6.04 trillion), foreign borrowings (N1.77 trillion), multilateral/bilateral loan drawdowns (N941.19 billion), and privatisation proceeds amounting to N298.49 billion.

Over the past one year, former Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike has shown that he is unable to accept the reality that he is no longer the governor of Rivers State.

Although he is the current Minister for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with a full bucket of administrative responsibilities to the residents of the FCT, the minister has his total attention fixed on Rivers State, where he still imagines himself as the de facto Governor and political godfather.

But Wike’s psychological inability to accept and operate within reality should be of concern to all Nigerians. In clinical psychology, when a person loses touch with reality, it is called psychosis.

A person with a psychotic condition may seem perfectly fine, but they may, in fact, be living a big part of their lives in an alternate universe.

For instance, psychotic individuals may hear voices that no one else hears – psychologists call this auditory hallucination. They may also see people that no one else sees – doctors call this visual hallucination.

By constantly imagining himself as Governor of Rivers State and seeking so desperately to control the affairs of the State, Nyesom Wike may be exhibiting the worst strain of all hallucinations – the hallucination of power.

Wike and his proxies have been waging a futile battle in the courts, in the streets, and in the media, to unseat the legitimate government of Governor Siminalayi Fubara in Rivers State.

On the 7th of October 2024, political hoodlums burnt down the headquarters of four local government area councils in Rivers State, after the successful conclusion of the local government elections by the state’s independent electoral body.

As they set the buildings ablaze, the arsonists could be heard in chilling videos, threatening even more violence and destruction.

On 10 October 2024, Justice Joyce Abdulmalik of the Federal High Court in Abuja gave one of most bizarre rulings in Nigeria’s jurisprudence by stopping the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Accountant-General of the federation from releasing statutory financial allocations to Rivers State.

Justice Abdulmalik gave her judgement on the basis of what many believed was a completely meritless application, filed in a distant and improbable jurisdiction, by a cohort of Wike’s loyalists who seemed bent on destabilizing Rivers State.

As one of the 36 federating states of Nigeria, Rivers State has a constitutionally guaranteed right to financial allocations from the federal government. The allocations are made for the purpose of governance and service delivery to the millions of people who live in the state.

Therefore, if there are disputes between organs of government over budgetary matters or financial appropriation, the resolution of such disputes must at least begin within the legal jurisdiction of Rivers State.

There are over ten judicial divisions in Rivers State presided over by dozens of high court judges. So, why take matters concerning the internal financial affairs of Rivers State to Abuja – a different legal jurisdiction, which is 642.3 km away?

But in her rush to judgement, Justice Abdulmalik seemed to see jurisdiction where there was none. Crucially, Her Lordship neglected to reflect on the broader damage to society which her dystopian judgement might have caused.

For example, the judgement would have denied thousands of Rivers state teachers, doctors, civil servants, sanitation workers, and retirees of their salaries and gratuities.

The judgement would have halted the delivery of basic municipal services, and thrown over two hundred thousand innocent children out of school in Rivers State.

In other words, this was a judgement that was guaranteed to break the dam of popular anger in Rivers State and beyond.

Throughout his career, the German philosopher, Friedrich Nietzsche, insisted that there was a tenuous link between politics and mental disorder. Nietzsche warned that we should be worried when politics is driven by people with a neurotic attachment to power.

Nyesom Wike and his judicial allies may be pushing Nigeria towards the frightening nihilism that Friedrich Nietzsche warned us about.

Thankfully, on 13 December 2024, the Appeal Court in Abuja nullified the entirety of Justice Abdulmalik’s judgement for want of jurisdiction.

But, thanks to Justice Joyce Abdulmalik, lawyers may henceforth define “judicial psychosis” as a judge’s uncanny ability to see legal jurisdiction where there is none.

Tam-George is a former Senior Executive Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts. He served as Hon. Commissioner for Information and Communication in Rivers State ( 2015-2017).

The easiest and most attractive national pastime is buck-passing, especially with the bunch of leaders that we have, who can hardly peel a banana or wash an already white handkerchief. Not many of us want to take responsibility for anything, from personal to family or national life.

The blame is on the system. We do not need to create demons out of our leaders because they are already specimens of demons, so we hang our sins on them appropriately and inappropriately, too. And unfortunately, their behavior has made it easy for the critics to descend on them.

We, at most, talk, write, and discuss the Nigerian myth with a sense of fatalism. If everyone thought as much as I did about justice and fairness, life would be better. I am a critic, but I am also the critics’ critic, the unrepentant believer that the best way to keep the government on its toes is to keep harping on their flaws so they can improve.

Often, I say I believe the things I write about are as important for our nation as they are for other nations, but when it appears to me, Nigerians, especially those in authority, do not react to these issues as people in other lands do, I repeat them in new essays to remind old readers and recruit new ones to participate in the continuing dialogue.

So today, I address the real nonsense people…citizens, apologists, and crooks called politicians in Nigeria where nothing works and no one cares, when it works, it is because someone’s interest is about to be served or being served, not the people’s interest. We talk about our institutions despairingly. Our leaders do not watch network news any longer except when their faces are there on the occasion of their sons/daughters’ weddings or such. They do not need the newspapers anymore because it is full of their lies, paid adverts, and the critics’ truth, the bitter truth.

Government bashing is a national issue, and every drinking joint and any suya spot has a sitting parliament with an expert on every and any issue, but we forget that no matter the input, if the politicians and actors in our national scene have questionable lives both on a personal and domestic level, nothing will change, the best government policy cannot change the individual. It is because the policies are formulated on a bad foundation and by people with warped thinking.

We do not need the government to teach us to stop treating ourselves like animals. Do we need the government to teach us that we demand responsible leadership and representation? Certainly not, we should know that and act in a fashion that depicts that we demand more than what we are getting.

So, let me tell us, this tale by an unknown author. It is originally called the pebble and the ripples.

A man was sitting by a lake. He was throwing small pebbles into it from time to time. A young boy happened to cross by. He was intrigued to see that after every few minutes or so, the man would toss a pebble into the lake.

The boy went up to the man and said, “Good pastime, this stone-throwing?” “Hmmm, said the man. He seemed to be deep in thought and did not wish to be disturbed.

Sometime later, the man said softly, “Look at the water, it is still.” The boy said, “Yeah, it is.”

The man tossed a pebble into the water and continued, only till I toss a pebble into it now, do you see the ripples?”

Yeah, said the boy, “they spread further and further.”

“And soon, the water is still again, offered” the man.

The boy said. “Sure, it becomes quiet after a while.”

The man continued, “What if we want to stop the ripples? The root cause of the ripples is the stone. Let’s take the stone out. Go ahead and look for it.” The boy put his hand into the water and tried to take the stone out.

But he only succeeded in making more ripples. He was able to take the stone out, but the number of ripples that were made in the process was a lot more than before.

The wise man said, “It is not possible to stop the movement of the water once a pebble has been thrown into it. But if we can stop ourselves from throwing the pebble in the first place, the ripples can be avoided altogether!

So, too, it is with our minds. If a thought enters into it, it creates ripples. The only way to save the mind from getting disturbed is to block and ban the entry of every superfluous thought that could be a potential cause for disturbance. If a disturbance has entered into the mind, it will take its own time to die down. Too many conflicting thoughts just cause more and more disturbances. Once the disturbance has been caused, it takes time to ebb out. Even trying to forcibly remove the thought may further increase the turmoil in the mind.

We have exhibited in the last few weeks again that there is a continued forced political marriage in this entity called Nigeria, we do not know whether we want the accident of history called Nigeria to remain or whether we want to go our separate ways; that is if we even can agree which way it is?

The tax bills that have been temporarily put to rest have again raised questions—Are we, at best, simply cohabitating without any mutuality, or is it just a union of the very wild poor at the bottom and the very rich on top? Again, our comments have shown that we are a symmetrically antagonistic group trying hard to find a melting pot other than soccer, corruption, and neglect by those we call leaders.

There is no clear blueprint to address the developmental and poverty issues in the North – such as security, education, water, agriculture, health care, desertification, Niger River dredging, jobs, housing, etc. and sadly, these are issues also in the Southern part of the nation.

The critic’s anthem would be my end to this essay; it has always inspired me by H.G. Wells: “We are going to write about it all. We are going to write about business and finance and politics and pretenses and pretentiousness, and decorum and indecorum until a thousand pretenses and ten thousand impostors shrivel in the cold, …we are going to write about wasted opportunities and latent beauties, until a thousand new ways of life open to men and women. We are going to appeal to the young, and the hopeful, and the curious against—the established, the dignified, and the defensive…”

I will write about the nonsense in my society, once in a while, when I see good things, I will write about them, but I will not let an opportunity pass to address the real nonsense people so that they know that people are not happy, so that they come down from their hypocritical high horses, so they have the scales in their eyes removed; par adventure they can change, if only that we can have a true people’s revolution to get rid of the nonsense in our society—Only time will tell.