The lead story in This Day newspaper of December 30, 2021 brought the year to a close with a reminder of one of the many ills that bedevil Nigeria, encapsulated in a telling headline: “With Rising Theft, Nigeria Records 193 million barrels of crude oil deficit in 11 months”. This is otherwise translated into an estimated $3.5 billion of revenue lost to crude oil theft in 2021 alone, in other words, about 10% of the country’s foreign reserves. For a country that depends on petroleum products for about 85% of its total exports revenue and has been unable to define a future for itself beyond oil, oil theft is akin to a national calamity, a massive erosion, and an economic sabotage of the highest order. Even if it may not be the only factor that contributes to crude oil deficit, its impact is worth investigating. With regard to oil theft, ThisDay newspaper was not exactly reporting any new trend. Oil theft has been perennial and unceasing and indeed, it gets worse by the year. 

In its latest audit report, made public in July 2021, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) indicated that in 2019, Nigeria lost 42.25 million barrels of crude oil to oil theft, valued at 2.77 billion dollars.  This was actually meant to be an improvement (imagine!) because in 2018, 53.28 million barrels were stolen. And then in 2021, 193 million barrels of crude vanished from Nigeria’s resources. The value of stolen crude in Nigeria is enough to fix many of the country’s problems and reduce the obsession with borrowings. This is the reason why oil theft must be stopped.  On the average, Nigeria loses about 200, 000 barrels per day. What is stolen in concrete terms is not just crude oil, but jobs, opportunities, and possibilities. Oil theft is also a veritable example of grand corruption, and this is the point that has been made consistently in NEITI’s audit reports. The opaqueness that dominates the entire oil and gas value chain in Nigeria accounts for oil theft and loss of revenue. The absence of political will to tackle the problem makes it worse. Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Total divested from Nigeria in part because of oil theft.

In September 2021, the Federal Government decided to set up an Inter-Ministerial Committee on the recovery of crude oil and illegally refined petroleum products in the Niger Delta Region comprising the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), all backed by the security agencies – the Nigerian Army, the Navy, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) and others. The committee’s mandate is drawn from the provisions of the Assets Tracing, Recovery and Management Regulations 2019. Yet, by the end of the year, 193 million barrels of crude oil had disappeared and certainly that must be an under-valuation, an estimate.

 It is well known that there is no proper documentation of anything in Nigeria. We don’t even know how many we are. The National Population Commission (NPC) has no accurate register of births and deaths. Should it therefore be any surprise that there is no mechanism in place for monitoring how many barrels of crude oil Nigeria produces or the exact volume of it that is sold? Three years ago, there was some fancy talk about the introduction of technology to monitor output and activities along Nigeria’s oil pipelines network to detect sabotage, human interference and protect critical infrastructure. Oil was discovered in Nigeria, in Oloibiri, Bayelsa state in 1956. In 2022, Nigeria is still talking about how to protect pipelines through the adoption of technology. Even if technology is deployed through automation, the internet of things, drone technology, and the electronic monitoring that certain commentators recommend would still be an excuse to award contracts and make more money. Whatever works in other countries, Nigeria takes the same ideas and turns them upside down.

The people who want to stop oil theft are really not interested in stopping anything, so it seems, for indeed, oil theft is an organized crime, with a network of stakeholders that cuts across many layers of interest. And that includes the same agencies saddled with the responsibility to stop it. Illegal oil bunkering: hot tapping or cold tapping, or the smuggling and diversion of petroleum products is an expensive enterprise, that involves the collusion of both state officials and their agents.  It may not be incorrect to argue, in fact,  that nothing has been done because those who should take the decision or their agents are themselves involved, or they have been compromised. Crude oil in the international market has a signature imprint that indicates the source, but somehow, stolen crude from Nigeria simply disappears into a sinkhole, without trace. There are also illegal refineries in the Niger Delta. Every Minister of Mines and Steel Development develops a plan for addressing the menace of illegal refineries, but nothing ever gets done. Even Governors complain about illegal refineries.

Most recently, on January 1, 2022, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, in his New Year address, devoted some paragraphs to the challenge of the environment in the state. He condemned the pollution of the environment by the operation of illegal refineries. He even knows their location: “illegal crude oil refining sites along Creek Road and adjoining areas of the city…” and he wants them shut down with immediate effect. He added that all local government Chairmen should work with “community leaders to locate and identify those behind illegal bunkering and crude oil refining sites in their localities and report to my office for further action…” It would be a miracle indeed if either Wike or any other Governor in the Niger Delta would be able to put a stop to illegal oil bunkering activities in the entire region. The big-time oil bunkerers are major figures in the communities and key financiers of political processes!

Oil theft is further tied to the politics of Nigeria and the ownership of mineral resources. Section 44(3) of the 1999 Constitution, item 39 Schedule II of the Exclusive Legislative List and Section 1 of the Petroleum Act, 1969 vests the ownership and control of natural resources in any part of Nigeria in the Federal Government for the benefit of the people. (Also see Attorney General of the Federation vs. AG Abia State). For decades, the people of the Niger Delta and others have argued that this is a departure from the Federal principle that Nigeria claims to embrace and that as operationalized, the Federal Government’s ascribed ownership of mineral resources amounts to gross injustice more so as the Niger Delta which produces the mainstay of the economy remains dispossessed, marginalized and underdeveloped compared to other parts of the country that contribute less, and yet seek to control what does not belong to them. 

The battle over what is termed “Resource Control” has taken many dimensions over the years including the agitations that led to the Willinks Commission Inquiry on Minority Rights of 1957/58, the heroism of Isaac Adaka Boro (1966), the Ogoni people’s Struggle for Survival, the Kaiama Declaration, the politics of agitation for resource control, Niger Delta militancy and calls for a complete restructuring of Nigeria. In 2004, Niger Delta Representatives walked out of the National Political Reform Conference when a consensus could not be reached on the subject of resource control and derivation. Niger Delta activists have since taken up this matter by insisting that derivation is inadequate, development initiatives such as the Niger Delta Development Commission and OMPADEC before it, amount to mere tokenisms, and that total resource control is what the people want. This matter reared its head again recently, and apparently will never go away, given the North vs South alignment around it. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo had expressed the opinion at a public seminar that Nigeria’s crude oil does not belong to the people of the Niger Delta but to all Nigerians and to say anything to the contrary would be illegal and unconstitutional.

President Obasanjo correctly stated the position of the Nigerian Constitution, but in so doing he stirred the hornet’s nest as Niger Delta stakeholders led by Chief E.K. Clark attacked him as “an enemy of the Niger Delta”. Niger Delta activists and many other Nigerians think that the 1999 Constitution is a dubious military decree that should not be quoted as Nigeria’s grund norm. President Obasanjo’s argument must have reminded them of that other argument actively pushed by Northern intellectuals in the 80s and 90s that the oil in the Niger Delta actually came from Northern Nigeria and settled in the Delta, as part of a given process of geological sedimentation. The consensus in the Niger Delta is that this is a thief’s argument and that the real thieves of crude oil are those who exploit other people’s resources and who then turn around to insult the real owners.

It is also in this regard that local players in the Niger Delta who are involved in illegal oil bunkering do not consider their activities theft or crime. In a curious good thief vs. bad thief binary at the heart of oil politics in Nigeria, they justify their own oil theft, and openly flaunt their ill-gotten wealth because they believe that they cannot be taken to task for stealing what belongs to them, their  grandfathers and generations yet unborn. They find ready allies across Nigeria and the rest of the world, because everyone else is anxious to make a quick buck. Many young persons in the Niger Delta would rather be a militant or an oil thief. Thievery, by the way, is a national pastime, a national creed, in Nigeria. Everybody is looking for something to steal: from gold in Zamfara and Ilesa to bitumen in Ondo, crude oil in the Niger Delta Basin, and the vaults of the Central Bank, if possible.         

The economics, mathematics, cost and politics of oil theft point in one direction: the need for the country to put in place a strong surveillance mechanism. The country’s pipeline network is decayed, hence making the work of the oil thief easy. There was a recent blow out at AITEO’s OML 29 well-head in Santa Barbara River, Nembe, Bayelsa State. It took nearly a month for NOSDRA to be aware of it, and for any agency of government to take any action at all. It is important to have the necessary infrastructure and technology in place, and to treat oil theft strictly as economic sabotage. The penal structure for the crime should also be strengthened. Given the cost to the nation, the minimum sanction for oil theft should be life or death sentence. The politics of oil ownership or trusteeship cannot be advanced as an excuse for criminality. Until Nigeria decides to address its divisive politics, and public officials stop their hollow sloganeering about national unity, the resort to self-help, in form of oil theft or illegal bunkering, should not replace the rule of law. Crude oil refining has also been a problem. When will Nigeria’s refineries begin to function again at optimal capacity and profitably too?

It would require a whole Festschrift to capture the essence of Professor Bolaji Akinwande Akinyemi, who turns 80, today, Tuesday, January 4, 2022. Academic, author, public policy expert, distinguished Professor, man of letters, senior citizen, Professor Akinyemi is a Nigerian icon, one of the diamonds that continue to shine luminously in the Nigerian landscape and whose engagements with his country and the international community, through his writings, and policy interventions confirm his genius, humanism and excellence. In 1975, he was a 33-year old Political Science lecturer at the University of Ibadan when he was appointed as the Director-General of the Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA,) Nigeria’s foreign policy think tank. Akinyemi brought not just youthful energy to the NIIA, he imbued the Institute with his exceptional brain power and intellection and left behind a legacy, upon which his successors, added their own blocks.

His reward was his retention in that position, over a period of eight years, by a total of three administrations: Murtala Muhammad, Olusegun Obasanjo and Shehu Shagari and his subsequent appointment as Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs by General Ibrahim Babangida. Akinyemi was a creative thinker coming up, at every turn with original ideas: the Concert of Medium Powers,  the Black Bomb, Nigerian exceptionalism, the power school, and although many of his ideas were rigorously debated, he was never found wanting whenever he was dragged into the arena of intellectual pugilism. I recall his exchanges with the polemicist and poet, the inimitable Odia Ofeimun. Akinyemi argued for the authenticity of African identity and ideas, and the continent as a frontier for development. It was during his time as Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs that the Technical Aid Corps, (the TAC)) was conceived and established.

He has since through all seasons remained active in the public domain, an affirmation of his top credentials as a public intellectual, and as a symbol of how intellectuals can with the power of ideas forge a necessary link between the world of ideas and the world of action, between theory and praxis. In this regard, Akinyemi is a master of the art of tact, balance and ambidextrous navigation, as he cultivates the persona of an insider who is yet an outsider, a key player within the establishment at various times, and yet an activist for public good in defence of the masses. The former DG NIIA, and former Minister, during Nigeria’s turbulent years of transition from military rule to civilian rule, joined Nigeria’s Democratic Coalition and lent his voice openly to the struggle to save Nigeria. He remains fully engaged in public affairs, both locally and internationally, refusing to slow down. His capacity for work-life balance is also impressive.

In those days, he used to show up now and then at the Niteshift Coliseum, a night-club and entertainment centre, a stone-throw away from his Opebi residence, where he mingled with the young, and enjoyed the good life. He later joined us at The Guardian, on special invitation, as a Consultant to The Guardian Editorial Board. It was a pleasure working with him. These days, Professor Akinyemi has also been a major go-to person for us at Arise News TV for commentaries on international affairs. He never disappoints. Close to 50 years in the public arena, Professor Akinyemi has remained prodigious and intellectually formidable. I am tempted to say that they don’t make them like that anymore, but Professor Akinyemi himself would be the first to correct me on that score, because indeed what his generation has done is to inspire, amidst the rot that has enveloped Nigeria, a younger generation in academia and civil society, who continue to raise hopes about Nigeria’s future.

I have no doubts that Professor Bolaji Akinyemi is fully aware that there are implications to his attainment of the age of 80. I look forward to seeing him soon in his signature bow-tie and bespoke suit, to toast to his life and times and distinction. Happy Birthday, sir. Many Happy Returns.     

By the time we meet again on this page, right here, this very space, it would be a new year, and it is just so amazing that that is the way of the world. A year begins. It ends. From January to December, we go through the same cycle, inexorably. And as I look back, what I remember is a year that whizzed past just like that. But it was a bad year for many, and for Nigeria, whatever the vuvuzelas of the corridors of power may say. The year 2021 will be remembered by Nigerians also not so much for the tragedies that it brought but for the anxieties that it leaves behind about the immediate future. No year in recent times has left us with so much uncertainty, anxiety and doubt. As 2022 knocks on the gates, I, let me speak for myself, remember 2021, as the year when Nigeria failed to deal with the challenge of insecurity. Things just got worse on that front. In Northern Nigeria alone, more than 600 schools were shut down. Children were abducted from schools. The government had no clue. And as the year ends, the insecurity situation is compounded, lamentably by high inflation, unemployment rate, an army of disgruntled, dispossessed and unhappy youths, a security architecture that serves only the purpose of high-ranking state officials who go about in convoys of shame, an economy that is wobbling, silly public officials who think that they can do whatever they wish with stolen funds, and governments at all levels that cannot be too bothered. The latter are waiting for the next budget and the opportunity to award more contracts.

The Nigerian elite as always has not been able to forge a consensus about the past, the present and the future, leaving the people, these long-suffering people of Nigeria in a lurch. One Nigerian newspaper tried to review the year 2021, and searched far and wide for a person of the year and came up with the damning declaration that nobody was worth the honour of being declared Nigeria’s Person of the Year. I thought that was rather thought-provoking. In a country of over 200 million human beings, not even one person was considered good enough to be praised or vilified. Many years ago, we chose the common man, the Nigerian, as The Guardian newspaper’s Person of the Year, for his resilience, courage and commitment in the face of difficulties, but it looks like not even that common man is good enough anymore. But should anyone be surprised? These days, some newspapers are so silly they even choose those we regard ordinarily as “”money-miss-road” as Men of the Year. I remember 2021 as the year in which something went terribly wrong with us. Pipeline explosions, Market fires. Sharp rise in suicide cases. Needless loss of lives. Lies. Lies. Lies from official quarters. And by the way, 2021 was the year the Nigerian Government at the centre locked people, young people out of Twitter. In June, they banned access to Twitter- the major micro-blogging site that provides many Nigerians opportunities not just for social interaction, but also business. Government says Twitter wants to ruin Nigeria, but as the ban continues, nobody is sure anymore whether the problem is really Twitter or a disregard for the right of the average Nigerian to the freedom of expression. 

And on top of that was COVID. In fairness to the Nigerian Government, the Presidential Steering Committee, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) as well as agencies in some of the sub-national units focused heavily on vaccinating Nigerians against the virus and on generating awareness. The clumsiness that we witnessed in 2020 with regard to Nigeria’s management of COVID-19 improved a bit, such that by the end of 2021, both the NPHCDA and the NCDC can begin to award grades to states of the Federation. But on the whole, the news is very bad. In the face of OMICRON, Nigeria is having an OMICRONOUS end of the year. The guys at the NCDC tell us that recently there has been a 500% spike in COVID cases in the country. Nigeria is effectively in a Fourth Wave.  But do the people care? No. They don’t. In Europe and elsewhere, restaurants, bars and events centres are empty. Travel and tourism bookings have been cancelled. Business chieftains in England are asking the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak to do more for the hospitality industry beyond the one million pounds that he has promised. In many parts of the world, Christmas was cancelled, and where it was kept alive as in England, there are fears about what may well happen in January. In Nigeria, we seem to be somewhat insincere. Before Christmas, the Federal Government had advised churches not to exceed 50% capacity at Cross-Over Services on December 31. The people were told to stay at home, avoid crowded gatherings and observe all necessary guidelines and protocols. Wash your hands. Wear a mask. Nobody listened. Over the weekend that just ended, Nigerians were out there, celebrating the Yuletide. Every event centre was filled to capacity. It was difficult to find seats at restaurants. To worsen matters, even the Federal Government declared free train rides! What kind of government tells people to avoid crowded places and yet gives them free tickets to go about like smallpox?

I think Nigerians are tired. Their government is tired. COVID-19 has stretched us to the very limits. But unfortunately, we have not done enough. Morocco holds the best record in Africa in terms of vaccination. Out of a population of about 38 million, it has vaccinated over 23 million. Nigeria wants to vaccinate up to 55% of its eligible population by the first quarter of 2022 but there is no concrete evidence to show that the country has the capacity to do so. Already we have missed the 40% target set for the end of 2021, with only about 2% of the population fully vaccinated so far. Our risk communication strategies are also weak and ineffective. The average Nigerian believes that COVID-19 is a “white man’s disease and burden” and that government officials are using it to steal public funds. When you try to argue with them, they would tell you pointedly that they know health officials, and fine-girl contractors, concubines of men in high places, who have built houses from COVID contracts. Enough said on that…Let us remember the dead. In 2021, many died, persons of influence whose lives enriched others: Cicely Tyson, Alhaji Lateef Jakande,  Prince Tony Momoh, Pastor Temitope Joshua, Yinka Odumakin, Sadiq Daba, Sound Sultan, Rachel Oniga, Prince Phillip, Robert Dole, Colin Powell, DMX… May their souls rest in peace….

But I guess it would be fair to say that the year 2021 was not entirely gloomy.  There were amazing individual stories. Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emerged as Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a great achievement for Nigeria. Chimamanda Adichie, Burna Boy, Davido, Wizkid, Tems… continue to demonstrate the beauty of individual talent and the richness of Nigerian genius in the creative industry. Burna Boy won the Grammy award in the Best Global Music Album category…We can in fact, conveniently put together a list of 50 Happy Stories of 2021: in the United States, Kamala Harris made history early in the year as the first female, first black and first Asian-American Vice President in US history. The United Nations declared 2021, the “Year of International Peace and Trust”. I am not too sure about that, though. Where is peace in the world? In Afghanistan? Or Northern Nigeria? Where is trust? Emma Raducanu, 19, won the US Open, the first British woman to win a Grand Slams singles title since Virginia Wade in 1977. Max Verstappen of Red Bull, won the Formula One World Title 2021.  Lewis Hamilton, seven-time world champion, the Mercedes superstar, was so unhappy, he unfollowed everybody on Instagram. He got Knighted though. Lionel Messi, 34, took the Ballon D’Or, a seventh record time! As the year draws to a close, Pfizer and Merck have come up with two antiviral, oral pills, Paxlovid and Molnupiravir respectively, that have raised hopes afresh about the treatment of COVID-19 and indications that science may well be ahead of the pandemic in the long run.   

But Nigeria’s problems are bigger than the pandemic. The big problem we face as Nigerians is the uncertain note on which the year ends. The big question is: what will the year 2022 bring? I don’t know many Nigerians who can answer that question. We are ending a year, but we are going into the next one as a major guess work - a year of ifs. What if the COVID-19 pandemic gets worse and Nigeria is not prepared? What if inflation goes up, beyond current levels? What if the Buhari government decides to remove fuel subsidy and life just goes round the bend? I was asking someone the other day and I was told the cost of a cow is now about N270, 000! Cow. Common Maalu, that we used to buy for N80, 000, and we say we still have an economy? A bag of rice is now beyond reach. Tomatoes. Onions. Pepper. It is no wonder that people are easily irritated these days. The year ahead is also the year of politics. Both at the Federal and sub-national levels, our political leaders are most likely to be distracted. We don’t have an agreed electoral framework yet, and so the new year would begin with all of that unresolved matter of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2021. And who will be Nigeria’s next President? There is definitely no emerging consensus in that direction. Nigeria’s future, as the year 2021 ends, is clearly uncertain. The year 2022 remains at this moment, a great unknown.

Many years ago, I sat in the office of a big man who shall remain nameless- and he expressed serious concerns about what would happen after his demise. He had not yet put a succession plan in place. He did not like the fact that his daughters seemed to be doing better than his sons, and how the daughters, smart as they were had ended up in the hands of husbands he thought were completely unserious and the threat that unserious sons-in-law can pose to a rich man’s estate. He was worried about the future. Big men; big problems, I thought. What happens after a man is dead and gone?

I remembered him last week as I read the story of the matter between Chief Sonny Odogwu’s survivors and Access Bank over a matter of a N26.22 billion loan which by the effect of a judgement debt secured by Access Bank against two of the late Chief Odogwu’s companies – Robert Dyson and Dicket Limited and SIO Property Limited, and the beneficiaries of his estate, had now been placed at over N50 billion. Access Bank, plaintiff in the case, claimed that it granted various credit facilities to the late Chief Odogwu’s companies for the construction of Luxury Hotels and Apartments.  The Court found in favour of the plaintiff and granted an order that the collaterals, that is security, for the said loans/facilities should be sold. There were other specific orders.  The defendants took the matter to the Court of Appeal. Access Bank wants to enforce the judgment of Court. On December 20, ThisDay newspaper reported: “Access Bank Moves to Claim Late Sonny Odogwu’s Properties Over N50bn debt.”   

It was the N50 billion that caught my attention. I have always been suspicious of Nigeria’s big men. Many years ago, when the Assets Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) published a list of Nigeria’s most notorious debtors, I was shocked to find that most of the people on the list are those persons Nigerians call big men and women: the same ones that reporters struggle to praise to high heavens, media houses celebrate them and innocent people like me refer to as innovators, entrepreneurs, philanthropists, Nigeria’s diamonds... we write glowing profiles about the icons, the movers and shakers, the shapers, the titans of industry…but what that list exposed was that there were actually very few authentic rich people around. I asked: how can you be so heavily indebted and claim to be a big man? How do you sleep at night? That AMCON list settled the matter for me. Nobody should be called a rich man except you know how much he is owing the banks! Too many people in Nigeria going about in flowing gowns, disturbing traffic and snatching people’s girlfriends, with borrowed money!  I was educated however by some people around me: that it is okay to be a chronic debtor and be a big man. Something like: Nobody uses their own money to do business. To do business, you borrow money. Interest rates can go up. Investments can fail. It is not every businessman that takes a loan, and deliberately wastes it.

Chief Sonny Odogwu was a man of great enterprise, and talent who helped to create strong legacies in the insurance business in Nigeria, industrial relations, real estate and hospitality. He was also the publisher of the defunct Post newspaper. He was also a strong community leader. He created jobs, touched many lives and carried himself with untainted dignity till the end. What the Access Bank case shows is that he left unfinished business behind. And it doesn’t seem to be the kind of unfinished business that honours his legacy or memory. The Ide Ahaba Sonny Dike Odogwu, CFR, was a glorious son of Asaba, and one of the best ambassadors from that community. The beneficiaries of his estate owe him a duty to preserve his memory and honour. If there is money being owed, just obey the courts, and let the living learn to build their own legacies. There are strong lessons to be learnt from the Sonny Odogwu business case study about banking, relationships, and succession. Above all, Access Bank owes a duty to protect depositors’ money!    

It is now confirmed: President Muhammadu Buhari has withheld assent to the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2021 as forwarded to him by the National Assembly on November 19, 2021. Yesterday, there were speculations as to whether or not the President had complied with the provisions of Section 58 (4) of the 1999 Constitution and  whether or not the 30-day time frame in the Constitution had lapsed or not. That has now become academic. The President has rejected the Electoral Act as amended and proposed. We are back, all of a sudden to 2018 - the moment before the 2019 general elections - when the President withheld assent to the then proposed 2019 Electoral Act Amendment Bill on the grounds that the country faced the constraints of time, to enable relevant institutions to put the reforms then being proposed in place. Nonetheless, the original arguments about electoral reform and all the issues involved became even more urgent after the 2019 general elections, which in many ways merely further accentuated the change and progress that Nigerians wanted. 

Expectedly, the 9^th National Assembly led by Dr. Ahmad Lawan was put under heavy pressure to return to the subject. Lawan promised that the National Assembly under his Chairmanship would treat it as a priority. The Amendment Bill that was transmitted to the President, Muhammadu Buhari a month ago, did not cover all the concerns expressed by the stakeholder-communities – such as independent candidacy, diaspora voting, and  reforms with regard to the treatment of electoral offences, but it was a major advance. It said a lot that was useful, to be fair, about the mode of conducting party primaries by the political parties, nomination of candidates, campaign finance, the leveraging of technology in elections, the balloting process. Yesterday, the President put public anxiety as to what he would do to rest, by returning the Bill to the National Assembly without his assent. His major grouse is his objection to the idea of direct primaries as proposed. The President says direct primaries will be a prescription for chaos in the political parties, and an undemocratic abbreviation of the rights of political parties to conduct their own affairs. Other reasons, as reported, include the “high cost of conducting direct primaries, the security challenge of monitoring the election, violation of citizens’ rights and marginalization of small political parties.” Why did it take the President 30 days and a 30-day, eleventh hour, nerve-wracking suspense to arrive at this off-the-shelf response?        

Or does anyone think the President has handled the matter in a much cleverer manner this time around? In 2018, he was directly accused of frustrating the passage of the law because he did not want any reform that would jeopardize his personal chances of getting a second term in office. In 2023, he would not be running for office and whereas the same President promises Nigerians credible elections and a legacy of fairness, he has tactically shifted whatever blame may emerge in the future to other stakeholders. But not quite, and not so, I guess.  It is on record that the most divisive matter after the passage of the Electoral Act Amendment Bill by the two Chambers of the National Assembly, was the issue of electronic voting and the mode of party primaries, under Clauses 52 and 87, respectively, of the proposed Bill. The House of Representatives and the Senate had differed originally on the structure and control of electronic transmission of results, but after much pressure from the public, the Senate reversed itself. There was no unanimity on the question of direct primaries,, in and out of the National Assembly.

But why should anyone think that the President is just being clever by half this time around? In 2018, the President refused to give his assent three different times, in such an untidy manner that even the village idiot could figure out that something was fishy and selfish. This year, the President upon receiving the proposed Electoral Act Amendment Bill put in place an internal ruling party mechanism, led by the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo to deliberate on the Bill. The party was divided down the middle between the party’s representatives in the National Assembly who want a direct primaries system which they consider more democratic, and the majority of the APC Governors who prefer an indirect party system, also known as the delegates system. The lawmakers thought the Governors were being selfish because the indirect system allows them to dictate, and dominate the process, and thus strengthen money bags and Godfathers within the party. The lawmakers in turn were accused of giving voice to their own insecurities and trying to use the Bill to promote their ambitions. I doubt if anyone has any record of the position of the APC as a party qua party, that is, not necessarily as the majority party in parliament, on the Bill. This was another layer of the uncertainty in what is emerging as the Electoral Bill game. The thing to note is that the APC is one political party out of many.

Subsequently, President Muhammadu Buhari forwarded the Bill to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice for advice. INEC is Nigeria’s electoral body. Whatever mode of party primaries that may be adopted, it would be its duty to provide the oversight framework. The Attorney General of the Federation is the country’s Chief Legal Officer. He advises the President on matters of the rule of law and administration of justice.  What is not clear is that it took both offices a rather unusual length of time to get back to the President. The INEC had originally said that direct primaries would be somewhat expensive, as a greater staff and financial outlay would be required. But when it finally spoke, INEC offered a classical, “your-obedient-servant response. It would do whatever the powers at the top want. Sycophants at work! The Attorney General of the Federation was less evasive in his response. He advised the President to reject the Bill, citing the recommendation of direct primaries as a problem. The mode and method of the President’s handling of the Bill forwarded to him, would not be clever after all, and the backlash would fall heavily on his head and office, if it turns out that the needless delay was engineered by the Presidency, or that this is the beginning of the same back and forth that we witnessed in 2018. We should note this:  Many Nigerians may think that the electoral reform that they demand has not happened or that the Electoral Act Amendment Bill does not fully address their concerns, but there is a feeling out there among the people, that this Bill as is, may well be a good beginning, and so the President was urged to sign it.  Our President clearly objects to that. So, what is next?

It is expected that before it proceeds on its annual end-of-the-year vacation, the National Assembly will this morning, formally present to its members, the President’s decision to veto the Electoral Act Amendment Bill of 2021. So, what is the likely response we should expect? The key option available to the National Assembly as defined, is a matter of law in Section 59 (4) of the Constitution which states that “Where the President, within thirty days after the presentation of the bill to him, fails to signify his assent or where he withholds assent, then the bill shall again be presented to the National Assembly sitting at a joint meeting, and if passed by two-thirds-majority of members of both Houses at  such joint meeting, the bill shall become law and the assent of the President shall not be required.” In other words, the National Assembly can override the President’s veto. Section 59 (4) of the Constitution is in pari materia with Section 58 (5) of the same Constitution.

But will the National Assembly, dominated by the President’s ruling party, the APC, override his veto? I really don’t see that happening. After an initial declaration by Dr. Lawan that the 9^th National Assembly would do whatever the President of Nigeria wants, he has had occasion to back-track a little bit by affirming the independence of the legislative arm of government and the potency of its mandate under Section 4 of the 1999 Constitution, but the persona of this 9th Assembly is that it is at best a rubber stamp of the Executive arm of Government - to be specific, a lackey of the Buhari government!  It probably now faces its biggest test so far, with the President’s rejection of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill. If it simply accepts what the President wants, critics of the administration would have solid reasons to accuse the Presidency of tyranny and the legislature of sheer obsequiousness. A coalition of 70 civil society organizations under the umbrella of the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room thinks that the rejection of the Bill will not “do the country any good.” It will also project the government of the day as being insincere.

We should also be interested in the questions that the President’s decision throws up. One: so, what now happens to other aspects of the Bill, the more progressive recommendations contained therein, such as electronic transmission of results? Two, is the President now kow-towing to the Governors in his party who want to maintain the status quo so they can buy delegates and determine who gets what? Three, is there a connection between this and some people’s 2023 electoral ambition? Are there hidden beneficiaries one way or the other, and the entire country is a victim of some people’s selfish inside baseball? Four, is it indeed true that the proposed direct primaries undermines the Constitution and rights of the political parties?        

One other question: why didn’t the President assent to the Bill and thereafter initiate a process for its further amendment? Focusing on one item out of many, and using same to undermine expectations is not a very clever move after all. In 2023, President Buhari owes Nigerians a major parting legacy: a demonstration that he is truly a statesman whose loyalty is beyond religion, geography or emotions. Will he rise to that high pedestal? And will he even be allowed to do so, if he so wishes, by the hyper-ventilating “spiritual forces” of Aso Rock? President Buhari’s rejection of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2021, may end up as the lowest point of his public career as Nigeria’s President, if care is not taken. 

It was a rather depressing moment, last week, reading the story of a young man, who sat on the rails of the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos and jumped straight into the Lagoon - a case of suicide. He has been identified as Lekan Odunare, 25, married to a 19-year old lady, and father of a one year old daughter.  His body was found a week after the actual incident. I was very uncomfortable reading the story. It was too graphic. The image of a young man sitting at his own chosen departure lounge, locked between that chasm: here and the hereafter, opting for finality, was a different kind of euthanasia, given the public nature of it. One fellow had the effrontery to video-record the mortal crisis, and one other voice could be heard pleading with the man, on the road to death, as he mumbled “asta- gafiru llahi.”  It means:  “I seek forgiveness from God”. And he jumped. And that was it. The mother of his daughter has reportedly said he had been depressed and he had told his family members to take care of his daughter. But why would anyone kill himself or herself? Why would anyone knowing that a course of action is wrong still embark upon it? Why do ordinarily good people commit evil or do wrong - what Phillip Zimbardo calls The Lucifer Effect in a book of the same title.

Nigeria is in the grips of a local pandemic and it is mass psychosis. The experts tell us that since 2015 there has been a sharp rise in cases of suicide, violence, and conflicts in Nigeria. Increasingly, people just decide that they are tired and they seek to end it all. Some Nigerians seek greener pastures elsewhere in the universe but for every person that succeeds, there are probably hundreds that failed. People are losing hope. They can’t cope. They live in a country that holds up few promises. Their leaders play games with their future. The country cannot even provide for the sick. Mental health crisis is a health condition like any other treatable illness. More than 100 years since the first mental health asylum was established in Calabar, Nigeria has no sensible policy on mental health. Stigmas, prejudices persist. We do not have enough mental health personnel or facilities either. Every time a suicide is reported, we all pay brief attention and move on. In a country of over 200 million people, when anything tragic occurs to you, you are reduced to a mere statistic. Nobody may notice that you are dead and gone, except family members. We must put an end to this trend.

March 2017: Dr. Allwell Orji. March 2017: Titilayo Momoh, a textile dealer, 65 years old. November 2018: Sheriff Oladejo, a staff of the Federal Road Corporation of Nigeria (FRCN) May 2019: Ayinla Rilwan.  February 2, 2020: Awolusi Olusegun, 65 years old. Jan. 21, 2020: Ikechukwu Ibeh. Feb 2020: Tayo Dabo, 21-year old graduate of Quantity Survey; December 2021: Lekan Odunare. Names. You probably do not know them. These are the names of persons who either committed suicide or tried to do so at the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos.  Momoh, Rilwan and Awolusi, Ibeh were rescued before they took the plunge but the others jumped into the Lagoon and died. All of them with one exception, who chose the Lekki-Ikoyi link Bridge, preferred the Third Mainland Bridge as their suicide spot. Like the Golden Gate Bridge in San Fransisco, United States, the Jacques Cartier Bridge in Quebec, Canada, and the Prince Edward Viaduct in Toronto, the Lagos Third Mainland Bridge is gradually becoming a suicide bridge. There will be more than enough time to worry about why people are taking their own lives, and why more Nigerians are doing so under the Buhari administration, but Nigeria can begin to show that it cares about the people by setting up a suicide deterrent system on that bridge. The rails are too low. They should be raised. Suicide barriers should be provided. There should be 24-hour security surveillance.  The Bridge is 11.8 kilometres long. Commissioned in 1990, it is the major link road between the Mainland of Lagos and the Island. It has become a symbol of the aborted hopes of many, a Golgotha in the heart of the city of Lagos. Tragic.   

Segun Awosanya, also known as Segalink, is a Nigerian realtor, human rights activist, business consultant, and member of Justice Doris Okuwobi's Panel on the #EndSars. He believes that Nigerian police officers often feel neglected and marginalised by society.

The human rights activist shared their thoughts during an interview with Reuben Abati on City FM 101.5, discussing the issue of police salary increments.

According to Awosanya, police officers often feel neglected in our society. They receive criticism for their mistakes but rarely receive recognition for their accomplishments. This is despite the fact that they face numerous challenges with limited resources, while lower-ranking military officers are exempt from taxes. In contrast, police recruits in Nigeria are required to pay taxes.It's important to bring attention to the disparity between the military's lack of pension and the fact that police officers contribute up to 12% of their salary towards their pensions.So, these are some of the issues that require attention in order for the police to feel a greater sense of belonging and care from the government.
Starting in January 2022, the Federal Government has given the green light to a 20 percent salary hike for police officers.
During the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Wednesday, President Muhammadu Buhari presided over the proceedings in the recently refurbished council chambers. Maigari Dingyadi, the Minister of Police Affairs, shared important information with the media present at the state house.

According to Dingyadi, the review is a direct response to one of the demands put forth by the #EndSARS protesters in 2020. This particular demand focuses on improving the overall wellbeing of police officers.

There are concerns among certain individuals regarding the certainty of the police salary increase being implemented.
Interestingly, the federal government has previously discussed the review of police salary structure on multiple occasions. Specifically, between 2018 and 2021, there were four instances where the government addressed the topic.
When asked about the government's commitment to implementing the salary increase, Mr. Awonsaya responded, "The increment we are discussing is not a mere promise or a gamble."It is a component of the ongoing implementation of the presidential police reform roadmap.

According to reports, police officers have allegedly been receiving a significant portion of their salary from the Nigerian government. This information is expected to be supported by testimonies from the officers themselves.

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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 11:45am

Guest: Segun Awosanya. (Convener EndSARS ReformPoliceNG, President/Founder Social Intervention Advocacy Foundation (SIAF))

Topic: Police salary increment

Date: 18 December 2021

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My good friend, Akin Osuntokun is 60. He was actually 60 on November 24, but it is this week that friends and family are rolling out the drums to celebrate one of the finest persons that I know. On November 24, we had gathered at his residence, at the invitation of Ronke, his wife, and the Osuntokun family but that was just a family event. This week, Akintola Osuntokun gets the public celebration that he truly deserves. Sometimes I forget how and when he and I met and I must have given varying accounts over the years. But the main recollection imprinted in my brain is that I got to know him when I was a graduate student at the University of Ibadan. I was Secretary-General of Obafemi Awolowo Hall. Ronke Ajibade, now Mrs. Osuntokun, was a graduate student.  She lived in Awo Hall. Akin used to come around to “disturb” her. As Secretary-General of the Hall, I was something of a village gossip. I knew a lot more about every little affair.  

I had completed my Ph.D. thesis, but my teachers would not let me go. They wanted me to teach and give back to the Department, having completed my studies with the University’s Scholarship. I eventually got drawn into students’ politics. I already knew Akin Osuntokun by reputation before I met him. He was one of those young men in those days who wrote prolifically on the pages of Nigerian newspapers. In the 80s and early 90s, young men of our generation were more interested in ideas. We were brought up by good teachers. In ABU, Ife, UNILAG, UNN, and the University of Ibadan, we had a set of academics who promoted nothing else but ideas and who became role models for younger persons. The big debate then was about Marxism and Capitalism, and some of the leading polemicists included Wole Soyinka, Biodun Jeyifo, Ropo Sekoni, Yemi Ogunbiyi, Dipo Fashina, Edwin and Bene Madunagu, Eskor Toyo, Tunde Fatunde, Chidi Amuta, Bala Usman, Bade Onimode, Femi Osofisan, Bode Sowande, Segun Osoba, Festus Iyayi. Many of us wanted to be like them. We wore jeans and batik. We mouthed revolutionary slogans. We looked down on anybody that looked like a coxcomb as a potential idiot. 

We could quote major texts in epistemology and 20th Century ideas. The newspapers provided a watering hole for our teachers and the students who learnt at their feet. Akin and I belonged to this generation of students learning to be like the masters. We too wrote essays and whenever we met, we engaged each other. We were not very popular with all the girls. Very few girls wanted to date anyone sounding like a textbook or parroting the thoughts of poor people as gospel truth. But Akin won Ronke’s attention. When I eventually left university teaching and relocated to Lagos, it turned out that Ronke’s family, the Ajibades lived within the Oke Ira axis and I was also not far away. I used to follow Akin on his many trips to the neighbourhood. I don’t know how they do it these days, but in our time, you couldn’t just go to a man’s house to visit his daughter. You would ask a friend to accompany you, make it look like you were just a harmless, innocent, classmate just passing by. I hear these days, some suitors are invited by prospective mothers-in-law, served food and they share drinks with the would-be father-in-law and given a VIP reception. Many of such boys come in and out until the family loses count. No responsible family would allow that kind of behaviour from suitors or male friends of their daughters in our time. The Ajibades and the Osuntokuns are both from Oke-Imesi, in the present Ekit State, so that also meant a long history and the need to respect spaces. I was happy to tag along to occasionally support my friend.

I ended up proposing the toast at their wedding many years later at the University of Lagos where the event was held. I remember that wedding because it fell on a day I was to write an examination paper at the Faculty of Law, Lagos State University (LASU). I missed the exam. Now this week, many years later, I have chosen to miss another commitment, to deliver the special public lecture in honour of Akin Osuntokun holding at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIIA) as he celebrates his 60th birthday.

But there is nothing that is ever too much to do for Akin Osuntokun. He would do more if the shoes were on the other side. He is generous, kind-hearted and dependable. He is one of those friends you have, you just simply can’t do without. He is ever so considerate, extremely adept at managing relationships and networks. I don’t know how he does it. You would think the cell phone was invented for him. He likes to organize, mobilize and pursue results. And he thinks and writes. For more than 30 years, he has written extensively on issues of national interest. I met him through his many writings, and we later had the opportunity of working together on the Editorial Board of The Guardian Newspapers. Before The Guardian, he had written for Vanguard and other newspapers and had chalked up a reputation as a very analytical mind with a capacity to deliver thoughtful, well-researched essays on key national issues. Mr. Alex Ibru, our publisher took an instant liking to him. Nigeria was going through a tumultuous moment: the dust over the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election had not yet settled, there was crisis in the Niger Delta, the military establishment was dangerously overstretching its luck, locally and internationally, with its abuse of human rights and processes. In addition to his work as an editorial writer and columnist, Akin Osuntokun was given the additional responsibility of doing a regular summary and analysis of key political issues for Mr. Alex Ibru: publisher of The Guardian, the man who gave people like me and many others the opportunity to grow. Mr. Ibru had one talent: he could spot talent from a thousand miles away. And he would pick you up and groom you and challenge you to excel. Akin has always had a passion for politics. He believes that it is politics and the art of leadership that can save society. His best moments are when he discusses politics or you allow him to organize or midwife a political process. 

It didn’t take long for me to realize that there is a genetic side to this. Osuntokun used to talk about a certain progenitor, his grandfather or great grandfather who led his family from Ajase Ipo in the present Kwara State, to Okemesi where the family settled. The said Osuntokun pater familia  fought in the Ekiti Parapo, Jalumi and Kiriji wars and was one of the chief lieutenants of Isola Fabunmi of Oke Imesi. Professor A. I. Akinjogbin has given an excellent and authoritative account of War in Yorubaland in the 19th Century, in a book of the same title but Akin Osuntokun’s progenitor’s role in that phase of Yoruba history is something that gives him feelings of pride and authenticity. He sees himself as a reincarnation, a man with a biological mandate to pursue public causes in the people’s interest. His father was also a major influence. By the time Akin Osuntokun was born in  1961, intra-ethnic wars in Yorubaland had ended, at least for a while- Ife-Modakeke was still many years in the distance, but his father, Oduola Osuntokun and his siblings had given the family name a contemporary edge. Oduola Osuntokun was one of the first stars in the then Western Region to graduate from the famous Fourah Bay College in Sierra Leone. He was also a superstar educationist, an outstanding school Principal.  He ended up in politics and became a Minister in the Western Region under the Obafemi Awolowo Government. He was a Chieftain of the Action Group.

But when the fight between the Premier of the Western Region, Obafemi Awolowo and his Deputy, Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola (SLA) occurred, the late Oduola Osuntokun pitched his tent with the latter. This has since turned out to be a big event in the history of the Osuntokun family. It was in the midst of that politics that Akin was born. His father named him after SLA. Akin is in full: Akintola Osuntokun. His father named his son after Akintola just in case anyone was in doubt about where he stood. Akin Osuntokun has had cause to publish a book on Oduola Osuntokun’s side of the politics of the era titled Oduola Osuntokun: My View of the Coin, written by the man himself.  But it would not be appropriate for us to take sides. The other weight on Akintola Osuntokun’s shoulder is that he comes from a family of major figures in Nigerian history. One of his father’s brothers is on record as being one of the most brilliant Nigerian scientists ever produced. Professor Benjamin Oluwakayode Osuntokun, MD, Ph.D, DSc. (1935 -1995) was one of the best and the brightest of his time. He was a researcher on tropical neurology, atxic neuropathy to be specific, the man who was known for Osuntokun’s sign, and a Gold Medallist in Medicine.

 But he was not the only man of prodigious talent in the family. Akin Osuntokun used to tell me that his father used to challenge his brothers to do more and excel. Another uncle has been no less distinguished. The historian: Professor Akinjide Osuntokun, Emeritus Professor, former University Vice-Chancellor, former Ambassador of Nigeria to Germany, author of many seminal books including Nigeria in the First World War, Chief S. Ladoke Akintola: his Life and Times, Power Broker: A Biography of Sir Kashim Ibrahim, History of the Peoples of Lagos State and others. Akin Osuntokun practically follows in the footsteps of his fathers, and of all the members of the younger generation of Osuntokuns that I know, he has been the most dedicated in that regard, combining every strand of every family heritage into an impressive persona: the warrior, the intellectual, the political man of action.

He used to look very lithe. He has managed over the years to maintain a good frame. I attribute that to his obsession with physical exercise. He likes to jog in the morning; for many years he maintained a strict schedule. But no one should be fooled by his appearance. Osuntokun sees himself as a warrior. He was once Basorun of OkeMesi. He is now the Balogun of Okemesi, the war commander of Oke Mesi, the title once held by the legendary and inimitable Fabunmi. On his birthday, on November 24, Osuntokun danced, most of the time to the Balogun beat: the traditional, drum sequence that calls out the Balogun of Okemesi, to remind him that it was time to go to war. As the beats rolled out of the spherical-shaped drums in responsorial, antiphonal rhythm, supplied by a team that looked like they came all the way from the village to serenade their Balogun, Osuntokun the son stepped out. His uncle, Professor Akinjide Osuntokun also stepped forward. I laughed. No level of education can displace genetics, or stop these people my Egba progenitors refer to as Ara Oke from being who they are.  A family of warriors. But the nature of the war has since changed.

Akin Osuntokun, the celebrant, fights his wars today, in the public arena, using his pen and mouth to express ideas and to pursue political causes. He introduced me to politics. I used to think politics was a special calling for people looking for a quick way to be relevant. But sometime in the 90s, Osuntokun came up with the idea that we, the young people of Nigeria, must not leave leadership and politics to the older generation who had failed everyone. He set up what became known as the Progressive Action Movement (PAM), a platform for young people who wanted to take over Nigeria and make a difference. Akin used to argue that nobody would ever come to your house to invite you to join politics. You must show interest. I did. We met regularly and we formed a strong network that attracted support and attention. Opeyemi Agbaje, Toyin and Debola Fagbayi (we held many meetings in their house in Apapa, and they provided good refreshments), Segun Awolowo, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (as he then was), Dotun Oni, Ado Sanusi, Femi Fani-Kayode. Osuntokun used to live then in Wemabod Estate, off Adeniyi Jones in Ikeja. We met in his compound. Ado Sanusi lived next door, and sometimes we held events in Ado’s house. Their wives were always ever so accommodating. We grew into a big family of young Nigerians who wanted to change the country. 

Some of us ended up in government. Quite a number became big men and women in politics. Akin Osuntokun has been active since then in the public arena and has acquired significant experience as a party man, strategist, political mobilizer, and more importantly as a public intellectual. He has served as Chairman of Oodua Printing Corporation, and Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN). He was a Political Adviser to President Olusegun Obasanjo. A loyal party man and a die-hard PDP politician, Osuntokun was the Director of the PDP 2007 Presidential Campaign, the campaign that brought President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to power. He has remained one of the most consistent voices of reason in the public arena. He is a member of the Editorial Board of ThisDay newspaper and a regular columnist with the same newspaper. 

I am very proud of him and what he has been able to achieve since those early days when we all had no ideas about tomorrow. Osuntokun can argue though. When he is upset, you don’t want to be around him.  The other day, at a meeting of the Ooni Caucus, which he coordinates, even the Ooni had to struggle to get him to calm down. But he is an all-round jolly good fellow. And he has learnt, over the years, not to give Ronke any undue stress. I will not speak further on that, please… Okunrin Meta! 

Remarkably, he is a good citizen. The vastness of his contribution to politics and leadership is guided by a commitment to a narrative of optimism and possibilities. He is a stout promoter of the firm belief that the pen is indeed mightier than the sword. He is above all  a gentleman and one of the finest ambassadors of Okemesi and the Yoruba race. Where are these Okemesi drummers? Beat the drums and let the Balogun dance…  A man whom you can’t eulogize without speaking about a part of your own life is not a friend but a brother… Enjoy your birthday, Balogun. Congratulations.            

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 11:45am

Guest: Mr Akinola Akinropo(Family life development strategist)

Topic: Dowen college, Sylvester Oromoni, schools and parenting.

Date: 11 December 2021

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