“We are here this evening to witness this momentous occasion as the people of Kenya restate what is in article one of the constitution of Kenya that all sovereign power belongs to the people of Kenya…I want to thank God for getting us to this point. I want to thank God that today we have concluded this election. I know that there were predictions that I wouldn’t get to the ballot, there were predictions that we would not be here, but because there is a God in Heaven we are here, and I want in a very special way to say, and to confess, that without God, we wouldn’t have been here.” – William Ruto, Deputy President and President-elect, Republic of Kenya, Monday, August 15, 2022. 

And thus, it is done: the people of the Republic of Kenya have elected a new President in the person of the current Deputy President William Samoei Arap Ruto, 55, who, barring any untoward developments, will succeed his boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta for whom the constitutional two-term limit of 10 years has come to an end. Kenya’s Constitution requires the winning candidate to receive 50% of the vote plus one, and at least 25% of the vote from 24 of the country’s 47 counties. A keenly contested election, which resulted in six days of vote counting, much anxiety and apprehension, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) uploaded and collated the results, ended with William Ruto, candidate of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) winning 50.5% of the vote, that is 7.1 million votes. His closest challenger, Raila Odinga, 77, candidate of the Orange Democratic Movement/Azimio One Kenya Alliance, got 48.9% of the votes, that is 6.9 million votes. There were four major Presidential candidates in this election, and the third is particularly interesting: Professor George Wajackoyah, candidate of the Roots Party of Kenya, who ran a rather unorthodox campaign, targeted at young voters, with frenzied, eccentric mobilization on social media, and what became a high-pitched political movement combined with reggae dancing and talks about the value of marijuana, and hyena testicles.  

Wajackoyah’s social media sensation and populism fetched him 61, 969 votes - just about 0.44% of the total votes cast – a grim reminder of the limits of social media populism in the context of elections.  The fourth candidate, David Waihiga Mwaure of the Agano Party, almost stood no chance, with 31, 987 votes (0.23%) as this was a tight race between Odinga and Ruto. Kenya’s general election 2022 is probably the most competitive so far in the history of the country. Ahead of the elections at the Presidential, governorship, senatorial, parliamentary and county levels, there were fears that there could an outbreak of violence, similar to the killings in 2007 and 2017. The two leading candidates are old, bitter rivals, forming broad alliances that were meant to give one or the other an advantage: William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance (an alliance of 12 political parties) and Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja. It is a measure of how this particular general election in Kenya is a test of the country’s stability - even now that the result of the Presidential election has been announced, it is somewhat difficult to celebrate a definitive end of the process. The fear of violence, litigation and acrimony hangs in the air, and the fear also, of what is next for Kenya.    

Just before the chair of the IEBC, Wafula Chebukati announced the winner, violence erupted at the national tally centre in Bomas, supporters of Mr. Raila Odinga reportedly started throwing chairs and tables. There were gunshots. Diplomats in attendance had to be guided away to safety. Mama Sarah, mother of the President-elect, also had to be quickly evacuated to safety from Bomas.  Two electoral commissioners were injured. Meanwhile in another location, Deputy IEBC Chair, Juliana Cherera and three other commissioners rejected the results which they dismissed as “opaque”, and even went further to suggest that the results should be challenged in court, because four of them would not take ownership of it. Thus, 4 out of Kenya’s seven electoral commissioners rejected the outcome of the August 9 Presidential poll. This was a brazen display of partisanship and rebellion on the part of Cherera and her gang. Electoral Commissioners openly taking sides with a political party is a recipe for disaster. Before now, Odinga and his supporters had complained about rigging and mismanagement of the electoral process. IEBC insiders rebelling against their own team lead may have unwittingly set the stage for conflict. 

What the law in Kenya says is that if Raila Odinga chooses to challenge the results, he is allowed to do so within seven days by petitioning the Supreme Court which would in turn take a decision within 14 days. If not, the results would stand, but if the results are nullified, fresh elections would be held within 60 days. We can safely assume that Odinga will go to court. Former MP/Prime Minister of Kenya (2008 – 2013), this is his fifth attempt at the Presidential seat. This may well be his last chance given his age. Polls before the elections projected him as the winner. His Iron Lady-running mate, Martha Karua was also sure they would win. There is no way they would walk away just like that. There is also the Uhuru Kenyatta factor. The incumbent President has been at logger-heads with his Deputy, William Ruto since 2018. In the lead up to this year’s elections, Kenyatta openly backed Odinga and promised to stop his own Deputy from succeeding him. 

The declaration of Ruto as winner of the Presidential election clearly humbles and humiliates the incumbent and the Odinga coalition. It also postpones the dream of a Luo Presidency in Kenya. African political leaders often like to play God, to determine who succeeds them and to impose their will on the people. It is important that the verdict of the people is allowed to prevail. Ruto has told those who opposed him that there is “nothing to fear… there’s no room for vengeance.” The international community must immediately step in to help the people of Kenya manage the new transition. The United Nations, the African Union and all voices of reason must begin to prevail on the leaders of Kenya to give peace a chance. In 2007, more than 1, 200 people died as a result of electoral violence, masterminded at the time by the Mungiki gang. After the 2017 elections, more than 100 people were killed. This time around, the international community must be proactive in ensuring that the elections do not degenerate into another orgy of violence because of the ego of politicians. And in these elections in Kenya the egos in conflict are just too overbearing: beyond the coalitions and the spectre of divisive politics, you have Ruto-Gachagua at one end, opposed with equal fervour by Raila Odinga-Martha Karua. The people must be more important than the gladiators. Kenya’s history of violence must not be allowed to repeat itself, “the hustlers and dynasties” in contention must give the people a chance.  

Without much doubt, the 2022 general election was a referendum on the legacy of President Uhuru Kenyatta. He is leaving behind a legacy of high inflation, high unemployment, economic inequality, political corruption, and debt – Kenya’s public debt is more than two-thirds of GDP.  Is the average Kenyan better off today than he or she was in 2017? No. Out of a total of 22 million voters, 14 million Kenyans representing about 64.6% turned up to vote in the elections in 47 counties, for 16, 098 candidates contesting 1, 882 positions. Voter turn-out was much higher in 2017 – 78% at the time, but the people are disenchanted with the political elite. Kenya’s next President must give the people hope and rebuild trust in government. Kenya is heavily indebted to China, the country’s entire debt burden of about $70 billion is unsustainable, and to prevent the country becoming another Zambia or Sri Lanka, this must be addressed. The people want food on the table. They want poverty tackled. They want to eat their ugali and mandazi without pain. More importantly they want the high cost of living and taxes reduced. They want peace. Ruto promised the people a “bottom-up economic model”.  Ruto would be Kenya’s fifth President since independence. And he has made history. No Deputy President in Kenya has ever succeeded the President. William Ruto will be the first. He is also the second Kalenjin after Daniel Arap Moi’s Vice Presidency and Presidency to lead Kenya. 

It is further reassuring to hear that yesterday, he placed a call to Raila Odinga and reportedly told him: “I will be available for us to have a cup of tea because there are areas we can agree on...We agreed that whatever the outcome of this election, we should have a conversation.”  The race may have been close, but Ruto won convincingly in critical constituencies such as the Rift Valley, Baringo, Mt. Kenya region where his running mate comes from, Teru, Nyeri and even in President Kenyatta’s Kiambu county where Ruto’s UDA took 11 parliamentary seats! Kenya’s next President has his job cut out for him. He has an obligation to run an inclusive government. It is now time to stop the vitriol and personal attacks. The bitter quarrel with Kenyatta must stop. There is a country to run. Ruto must put his hands to the wheel-barrow and move with it! It is time to rebuild bridges. An openly religious man, he must learn to eschew the politics of hate. There have been celebrations in Murang’a, Kerugoya and Nakuru. And protests in Kibera, and parts of Kondele in Kisumu. The people of Kenya must unite. They will look up to the former “chicken seller”, and self-described “hustler” to lead this country of 50 million people with wisdom, competence and courage.    

Whatever happens the day after, the just concluded elections hold some resonance for us in Nigeria as we prepare for our own major elections in 2023. On a positive note, Kenya has done much better this time around in terms of women representation. Half of registered voters in that country are women. Ahead of the elections, there were reports of attacks on women politicians and intimidation and gender-based harassment. But it has now been reported that seven women emerged as Governors in the election out of a total of 47. Six women were also elected as MPs and one as Senator.  This is a major improvement since 2017 when in that year, only three women were elected as Governors. In 2010, part of the Constitutional review was the decision codified in law as a two-third rule to encourage women participation in Kenyan politics. There is probably a lesson for us here in Nigeria. To all intents and purposes, Nigerian women constitute half of the voting population but they are structurally and procedurally marginalized in political decision-making processes. Women politicians in countries like Kenya, Rwanda, Zambia and South Africa are far ahead of their Nigerian counterparts. Nigeria pays lip service to the politics of inclusion, but what we run is a backward-looking, patriarchal system that confines female politicians to the backyards. 

There was much talk about the deployment of technology in Kenya’s election. There was nothing fool-proof about it. Out of the over 46, 000 electronic voter machines that were deployed, over 200 failed. Election was even suspended in at least one county. It took a whole week to get a final tally of results, creating anxiety. The thing to note is that the democratic process in Africa is still a work-in-progress, and many countries on the continent are still learning how to get elections right. Imagine a situation where it takes a whole week to collate election results in Nigeria! I don’t want to imagine what would happen if we were to experience that kind of delay. 

What has also been proven in Kenya is the perpetual conflict between incumbents and their deputies. President Kenyatta is definitely not happy that his Deputy has been declared winner. Both of them have been at each other’s throats since 2018. Ruto says he was the architect of Kenyatta’s emergence as President, for while he worked hard and held crucial meetings to make him President, Kenyatta was always busy sleeping.  Kenyatta dismisses his Deputy as a “thug” and a “tanga tanga” man; so much pettiness between those two but no one should be under any illusion that one is better than the other. Ruto is as much a product of the establishment as Kenyatta is. He is certainly not a saint. Indeed, without prejudice to already stated expectations, it would be quite a big surprise if he is able to perform any magic as President. In real terms, the transformation that the people of Kenya seek, may not happen under a President Ruto. But to go back to the original point about African Presidents and their Deputies working against each other, Kenya presents yet another classical example. 

The myth that the democratic process at Presidential and Gubernatorial levels offers the people two capable hands for the price of one is exactly what it is: a myth. African political leaders are superstitious power mongers and closet monarchs. They can’t tolerate the idea of a Deputy who may become a replacement. We have seen this in many African countries: in Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. Most recently, in the party primaries for the 2023 Presidential election, President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria did not lift a finger to support his Vice President’s expressed ambition to succeed him. If he did, the outcome of the ruling party’s Presidential primaries could have been different. In 2015, President Ernest Koroma of Sierra Leone sacked his Deputy, Vice President Samuel Sam-Sumana and expelled him from the party, the All People’s Congress. Sam-Sumana had to seek asylum in the US Embassy in Freetown. In 1995, late President John Jerry Rawlings of Ghana reportedly once kicked his Vice President in the groin, punched him in the face, and tore the shoulder of his jacket at a cabinet meeting!

Going forward, what Kenya needs is peace. The elections were generally considered calm and peaceful.  On Monday, the Interfaith Council of Kenya called on Kenyans and their leaders to maintain the peace. The Bishop of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Nyeri, Anthony Mheria said: “We send peace to Kenyans, our President-elect, and candidates that lost the vote count. May peace rest in their hearts and families.” Christian and Muslim clergy in the Rift Valley have also expressed similar sentiments. May it be well with Kenya…

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The organizers of the just concluded 22nd Commonwealth in Birmingham, UK deserve high praise for delivering an event at the Alexander Stadium in the West Midlands  that proved to be a triumph of art, culture, multi-sports glory and remarkable diversity. This was the first carbon-neutral Commonwealth Games (CWG) to be organized, thus a pacesetter for other multi-sports events hereafter. It was also like no other Commonwealth Games before it, with the inclusion of more games and medals on offer for women's sports – for the first time, women's cricket was introduced, in addition to eight para events that were integrated to further highlight the themes of inclusivity and diversity. The last time the UK hosted the “Friendly Games” as the CWG is also known was 20 years ago in Manchester, this year’s event, 10 years after the 2012 London Olympics, was bigger and coming in the year of the Queen’s Platinum, it has been a befitting tribute to the shared Commonwealth heritage, the city of Birmingham itself, and to all the athletes for whom the Friendly Games provides opportunities for self-realization beyond the thrill of participation or attendance.

Our high praise for Birmingham and the UK is not misplaced given the challenges that the hosts had to grapple with. The city of Durban was originally chosen as the next host of the 2022 Games as far back as 2015, but when Durban had to withdraw due to financial constraints, Birmingham volunteered to be the host in 2017, thus saddled with a shorter time for preparation ahead of the 2002 Games. Then COVID-19 up-ended the entire world, creating global process and supply disruptions, lockdowns and shutdowns and an inevitable re-ordering of processes with cost implications. Yet, despite this, Birmingham delivered. The opening ceremony of the Games on July 28 has been adjudged one of the most colourful ever, a celebration of diversity with prominent thematic motifs including equality of all persons and races, and properly toned reminders of culture, art and history: William Shakespeare, Samuel Johnson, Edward Edgar, Charlie Chaplin. 

The high point of the opening was the gigantic automaton Bull of Birmingham charging into the stadium, which was eventually tamed.  Duran Duran, Spice Girls.  A festive musicality filled the air. Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall drove into the arena. Malala Yousafzai, the Nobel Laureate who adopted Birmingham as her new home, after she was shot by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2012, also gave a speech on the importance of girls’ education. The Commonwealth comprises 72 nations and territories, most of which were formerly under the British Empire, representing 2.5 billion people of the world. This year, the Games had in attendance 6, 500 athletes competing in 280 medal events. It started on a high note. It ended on an even higher note, with UB40, Goldie and other global artists performing and Australia topping the medals table with 174 medals.

History was made. I note, in particular, the record set by 72-year-old Rosemary Lenton of Scotland winning the gold medal in para women’s pairs bowling with Pauline Wilson, 58. Birmingham has the most youthful population in the whole of Europe, 40% of its population is under the age of 25, and yet at this year’s Games, Scottish ladies, Lenton and Wilson proved that age is no barrier.  But of course, the bigger excitement for me was the performance of the Nigerian contingent at the Games.  This was our country’s 15th appearance at the Games, we sent a total of 93 athletes (41 men and 52 women) competing in 7 sports – athletics, boxing, judo, para powerlifting, table tennis, weightlifting and wrestling, but this was our best outing ever at the CWG, a firm, redoubtable, confirmation that Nigeria is a country of champions, who only need to be given the opportunity and the enabling environment for their talents to flower. At the CWG 2022, Nigeria finished seventh on the medals table with a total of 35 medals – 12 gold, nine silver and 14 bronze medals. The last time Nigeria did something faintly close to this was at the 1994 Commonwealth Games in Victoria, Canada, when the country got 11 gold medals, 13 silver and 13 bronze, and also at the 2014 Games in Glasgow, Scotland.

This year’s performance would be unforgettable, particularly with the record-breaking performance put up by the Nigerian team. The harvest of medals began with Adijat Olarinoye setting the new Commonwealth record in weightlifting, 55 kg category, lifting a total of 203 kg, Rafiatu Lawal also set a new record in the 59 kg weightlifting with a total lift of 206 kg, Folashade Oluwafunmilayo also set a new record in women’s heavyweight powerlifting, winning the gold medal, her compatriot, Bose Omolayo, took the silver medal in the same event. Tobi Amusan whose phenomenal performance at the World Athletics Championships in Oregon, US had been celebrated two weeks earlier when she set a new record in the 100 m hurdles, soon  proved that her earlier performance was truly the stuff of genius when she repeated the same feat at the CWG and thus defended her title as indisputable Nigeria, African, Commonwealth and the World Champion in 100 m hurdles.! She is in addition the first Nigerian athlete to successfully defend a Commonwealth Games 100m hurdles title, having won the same in Gold Coast, Australia in 2018. Nwachukwu Goodness provided a taste of additional goodness to Nigeria’s performance when she won gold and set a new record in women's discus throw with just her first two throws! Another hero in discus is Chioma Onyekwere. Nigeria also took another gold and set another record when the quartet of Tobi Amusan, Favour Ofili, Rosemary Chukwuma and Grace Nwokocha won the gold medal in the 4 x 100 women’s relay.  Ese Brume placed a nice cap on it all when, on Sunday, she also took the gold medal in the long jump, breaking the record in the event twice on the same day!

It has been said that the ladies did better than the men, winning nine out of all the 12 gold medals for Nigeria. This is not to make light of the effort of the men who won medals for Nigeria: Udodi Onwuzurike, Favour Ashe, Alaba Akintola and Raymond Ekewvo won a bronze medal in the men’s 4 x100 relay. Edidiong Umoafia also won a bronze in 67kg weightlifting. Overall, it was a good outing for Nigeria. We may not have done well in table tennis – the Ouadri Aruna-led men’s table tennis team was beaten in the semi-finals by India, dashing our hopes. Our women’s table tennis team could not advance to the quarter finals, having been defeated by the English team. There was also some initial disturbance about sports kits and Nigeria having to engage a British company MG Sportswear to work round the clock to produce last-minute kits for the athletes – this is a perennial problem with Nigeria. We never manage to get ready until the last minute. Or after.  Poor management is the bane of sports in Nigeria, and you can add to that - politics, greed and corruption. Nonetheless, what stands out after the country’s outing in Birmingham is the epochal performance of the Nigerian contingent, more specifically, the female athletes, and the Ministry of Sports which tried to ensure that there was no scandal. That in itself should be considered an achievement. The contingent deserves applause. 

Those special moments on the podium at the World Athletics Championships two weeks ago and now at the Commonwealth Games have given us something to be joyful about as a country - at a time when everything appears dim in Nigeria: public-owned universities have been shut down since February 14, the national currency, the Naira, has depreciated so badly in value many families cannot afford to buy a loaf of bread on the family menu because it is now so expensive, inflation is about 18.6%, unemployment - 33.3%, terrorists are getting bolder by the day, they are even threatening to abduct the President and other political leaders…and just in the midst of all that Tobi, Ese, Favour, Goodness and others have made us proud, and put a smile on our lips.

Nigeria could have done better if we had participated perhaps in more events, but the starting point would be for the country to develop the existing potential in other sports. We need world-class facilities to train and build athletes. Many of the Nigerian athletes who often do well in major competitions, may have been discovered at home, but they tend to get to the peak of their potential through foreign exposure and training. It should be possible to generate and keep world talents at home by making our environment more sports-friendly. Once upon a time, Ogbe Stadium in Benin City, Rowe Park and the National Stadium in Lagos, and Liberty Stadium in Ibadan were rated as world-class sports facilities. These days,  these and even newer sports facilities merely survive for about a year or two before they go into disrepair despite huge amounts spent on them. Frustrated, many of our athletes take up the citizenship and jerseys of other countries. This is why the dedicated ones who still give us podium moments at competitions are true heroes and sheroes.  What remains is to ensure that our 2022 CWG patriots get the befitting reception that they have earned, and of course, nobody has talked about the ethnic identity of these achievers as we all share in their glory as Nigerians – an indication of how sports can be a strong tool for promoting national unity. . 

Successful as CWG 2022 may have been, however, questions have been raised about the continued relevance and merit of the Games in its present format. There are three sides to this: politics, cost and scope. There are many who remain uneasy about the fact that the Commonwealth Games draws its identity from a legacy of monarchy, empire and colonialism. They want a clean break from the colonial past as the Empire itself has since ceased to exist as it then was. Originally established as the “The British Empire Games”, the Games has since changed its brand to the Commonwealth Games or The Friendly Games, to reflect the equality of members and the dominance of democracy. The Games thus promote partnership, friendship and the history of the shared heritage among members. Those who want a new identity refer to the fact that in terms of membership, certainly new, non-Empire members have since been admitted into the Commonwealth, the most recent being - Rwanda, Mozambique, Samoa, Gabon and Togo. If it is possible for countries that were never colonies  under the British empire to join the Commonwealth out of their own volition, then it should be possible to expand participation in the Games to make it truly multi-sports and multi-nation. Gabon and Togo having become members are expected to send participants to the next Commonwealth Games  in Victoria, Australia in 2026.

What is the issue about cost? Funding the CWG can be rather expensive. This is the major reason why in more than two decades, only one other country, that is India (Delhi 2010) has hosted the games outside the UK and Australia. Durban, South Africa had to opt out of its right to host CWG 2022 due to financial constraints. Indeed, no African country has ever hosted the Games since its debut in 1930. Birmingham spent about 778 million pounds to host this year’s event. Can any African country put such an amount together to host a sporting event? Outside Africa, many of the smaller members of the Commonwealth (eg. Nauru, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, Gambia, Tonga, Antigua and Barbuda etc) may also face financial constraints. But if countries are admitted based on capacity to host the Games, the question is: would the CWG not begin to look more like the Olympics? Would the opportunity cost consideration not translate into a complete erosion of brand and identity? Is there a possible new model for financing and hosting the Games to reduce cost and the burden on interested host countries? Unless a new model of financing is thought up, the dream of having every member country host the Games may never be realized. The rich countries that can afford to do so, would continue to lead.  Hence, countries like the UK (Manchester 2012, Birmingham 2022), New Zealand (Auckland 1950,1990), and Scotland (Edinburgh 1970, 1986), have hosted the Games more than once. Australia in fact, holds the record of multiple hosting of the Games – five times and would again be the host in 2026 followed by Canada hosting four times (– Hamilton, 1930, Vancouver, 1954, Edmonton, 1978, Victoria, 1994). The doctrine of the sovereign equality of states is a fundamental principle of international law, but in real terms countries are not equal, human beings are also just as unequal.

The assumption that Britain is using the CWG as a vehicle to divert attention away from the ills of its past, presenting itself as a more compassionate nation now making friends with former subjects, compared to other former imperial powers, does not devalue the Commonwealth Movement. The Commonwealth Games in whatever form would continue to showcase cities, and put such cities on the global map as it has done for Birmingham and other cities before now, in addition to providing a strong platform for athletes to prove their mettle in a manner that resonates throughout the Commonwealth and beyond, and a vehicle for the promotion of diplomacy, communalities, goodwill and understanding through sports.  Nigeria and its athletes must begin to prepare for the next Games in 2026. For now, CWG is a good outing. At the opening ceremony, on July 28, the Nigerian contingent danced excitedly to Kizz Daniel’s song: “Buga”. By yesterday when the games ended, “E choke” to borrow Davido’s famous Nigerian slang! 

I stumbled on a story in the Nigerian media which says that the National Assembly is planning to consider no fewer than 63 bills for the creation of new universities, polytechnics, colleges of education and monotechnics, and I wondered whether madness has finally descended on Nigeria’s education sector. Nigeria at the moment has about 49 Federal Universities, 59 state universities, Polytechnics - about 40, state-owned universities- 49, and private universities – 76, federal and state-owned colleges of health – 70, private colleges of health – 17, Colleges of Education – 219. So, who wants to add 63 more institutions to this array of moribund, inefficient, poorly governed and perpetually-on-strike-colleges? Every tertiary institution is a creation of the law, there is no doubt about that, but it would amount to gross stupidity for any group of lawmakers to sit and deliberate over the possible creation by law of additional tertiary schools in Nigeria today. The sponsors of such bills should not only withdraw them, they should hide their heads in shame, and must not be heard forthwith making any such silly suggestions.

Many lawmakers want a tertiary institution in their own neck of the woods. They want it said that as part of democracy dividends, it was during their term in office that a school was brought to their village, or community. They are forever desperate to be seen to be doing something that would fetch them another term in office. It is not difficult to see why community projects so called constitute such a big competition among lawmakers. Some lawmakers collude with the traditional rulers of their communities to give chieftaincy titles to their colleagues to support their plans to establish Universities of Medicine in their villages. If established. such universities would be no better than Primary Health Care Centres. Worse, actually. Higher institutions of learning should not be created on the basis of political expediency. No school should be established to massage the ego of politicians.  Tertiary education should not be about quantity, but quality and capacity, not political convenience, but political interest. We do not need to have a university or a polytechnic in every hamlet of Nigeria - that would be a prescription for chaos and confusion.

Today, it would be exactly two weeks since the President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari gave or did not give, the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, a two-week ultimatum, to find a solution, to the strike since February 14, 2022, of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU). Some other reports indicated that the Minister himself was the one who volunteered to end the strike because he had found a special formula to the matter. The two weeks is up today, so what has happened? What has happened is that by yesterday, ASUU told everyone that the union is extending the strike by university teachers for another period of four weeks. If ASUU was aware of any progress being made with the negotiations, its communique would have said so, but there was absolutely nothing like that. An academic session is about 9 months. Nigeria’s universities have been shut down for more than six months. A whole academic session has been sacrificed on the altar of nothing. Many students by now would have forgotten whatever they learnt in their other life as undergraduates. Many of the boys and ladies would by now have ended up as fathers and mothers, victims of unwanted pregnancy or adolescent sexuality, due to distraction and idleness, quite a number from privileged homes would have moved on to foreign schools or private universities, a larger majority would simply have dropped out to become a big burden unto society.  When university teachers embarked on their strike in February 2022, it was just them, but they have since been joined by other unions within the education sector. For months, Nigeria’s public education sector has been on its knees. On the plain surface of it, this is not good enough. It is condemnable, because the crisis is avoidable, and speaks to the failure of leadership and governance.

The involved unions - ASUU, SSANU, NASU, ASUP - are asking for better conditions of service and a quality education system in Nigeria. ASUU insists on a number of issues:  fulfilment of the 2009 ASUU-FG agreement, and the re-negotiated agreements of 2014, 2020, and 2022 in line with the sacred principle – pacta sunt servanda – that is the sanctity of agreements. It would appear that the Federal Government of Nigeria does not want to respect any agreements including the latest Nimi Briggs committee proposal.  The Briggs committee is recommending an over 100% increase in salaries and allowances for university teachers. The Minister of Labour and Productivity, Dr. Chris Ngige has been heard saying the government cannot pay such money because there is no money anywhere as Nigeria grapples with a local and global season of economic distress. Well, well, well, it is true that Nigeria’s debt service profile exceeds country revenue by about 119%. Excess crude Account has been depleted.  What do we have there now? Some little change above $300 million. Our foreign exchange situation is so bad, the Naira is beginning to look like toilet paper in comparison to the dollar!  University teachers of Nigeria insist that they do not want the government’s payment system that places them under what is popularly known as IPPIS, they want their own payment system called UTAS. They are asking for revitalization funds for universities. They want the number of universities to be rationalized because they think there are too many universities in the country, resulting in the lowering of standards. They reject the idea that Nigerian students should pay appropriate fees. They think the provision of quality education for the Nigerian child is a sacred duty and anything to the contrary drawn from Western, neo-liberal economics is wrong-headed, human development strategy. There are more than enough hard liners on both sides, however: between those who think government must have its way, and those who think government is manned by stupid persons who have lost the capacity to think intelligently. In that middle are parents whose children have been wrong-footed, a country whose education system is being destroyed and young Nigerians whose future has been mortgaged.

It is perhaps necessary to define the context of this reflection. Once upon a time in this same country, the education system flourished. In 1955, the Western Region led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo and strategic thinkers like Chief Adekunle Ajasin and Professor S. O. Awokoya introduced Universal Free Primary Education System in the Western Region. The policy promoted education in the Western region. By 1957, the Eastern Region led by had also introduced a framework for a similar promotion of education. In 1959, the leaders of Northern Nigeria had their first major summit on education with a clear intention to promote education in the North. The regional system encouraged competition and each region working on its own comparative advantage. The West succeeded with its plan, producing generations of educated persons. The East also succeeded, but the civil war truncated the growth of the East. The East has since recovered pushing forcefully ahead on the competitive plane, after the civil war, a reflection of the people’s resilience, with Igbos now having the highest number of Ph.D holders in Nigeria today. The only region that fell behind is the North where a large number of Nigeria’s out of school children is concentrated and the result has been banditry, terrorism, and illiteracy. My point is that there was a time when every region of Nigeria tried to promote education, learning, and culture, with relative differences. As a primary and secondary school pupil in this country, government gave us books. Some of our schools could easily compare with some of the best schools in England and Europe. Students came to study in this country from other parts of the world. Many of our teachers from primary to university level were expatriates, and they were very happy living and working in Nigeria, with their families.  

I remember this: my secondary school got featured on the then old WNTV because we had one of the best farms in the Western region cultivated by the school under the leadership of Chief Sesan Soluade who later became Deputy Governor under Chief Olabisi Onabanjo as Governor of Ogun State. At the university level, we had access to quality. There was water. There was electricity. Hostel staff laid our beds, washed our bedsheets, and every morning cleaned our rooms. The university cafeteria was a place of delight. The food was good. The menu was heavenly. They fed us to make us study well. We drank tea every morning. Every meal came with tea and dessert. Every Sunday afternoon, we looked forward to the special chicken delicacy that we got served as a special treat. Food was so important to us, and a source of celebration that even our cafeteria had a Chairman who was so appointed and recognized by students! Only the Chairman had the right to arrive whenever he wanted and he would be allowed to go straight to the head of the queue. The Chairman was a true Chairman in any case, because he was always the first person to show up at the cafeteria, morning, noon, and in the evening. The irony was that he was a science student with all their laboratory sessions, but he seemed to have taken his reputation as the cafeteria king as his major mission in the university. Chairman graduated. Mr. Jeun Koku didn’t repeat a class! He graduated on schedule.

In the more uptown universities like the University of Ibadan, we were told that the situation was even better. Those ones wore gowns and some of the boys behaved like they were future lords. Before we graduated, everything collapsed.  The cafeteria system disappeared. Nigeria under Ibrahim Babangida, had taken the IMF pill. The country went downhill and has not recovered since then. By the time I got to Ibadan for graduate studies, I met a culture of “bush attack”. There was no water. No normal environment. Boys and girls took to the bush in early morning hours to empty their bowels. Everywhere stank. Then, they brought undergraduate girls to graduate hostels and hell broke loose. Boys started behaving like girls. I ran for election as Secretary of Awolowo Hall along with others who thought we needed to save our Hall of Residence, and won, but we all ended up being very friendly with the female wing!   It is now so bad that the education system has completely failed. Over 13 million Nigerian children, most of them in the North are out of school. Northern leaders have been holding meetings since 1959 to promote education and enlightenment in the North. They meet every season, every year, every electoral cycle. The number of illiterate children in the North keeps expanding. The situation has been compounded by the menace of Boko Haram, terrorism and the insecurity of lives and property in the North. Religious and ethnic dimensions to the crisis make it more terrible. Not even schools are safe. They have become targets in the hands of those who believe that western education is a sin and that anyone who goes to school must be kidnapped and eliminated.

Given these circumstances, the proposed recklessness of breathing more tertiary institutions into existence through legislation is annoying. Nigeria does not need more tertiary institutions. This is one of the major arguments of ASUU and other unions. I think they are right. Even with the Nimi-Briggs proposition, nothing will change. Has anyone even seen the Briggs paper? What the university teachers want is a quality education system. They do not want the proliferation of mushroom universities that spring up at every corner without the wherewithal to keep them going. The education system is so bad that employers of labour in Nigeria do not even want to employ graduates of Nigerian tertiary institutions. If you must employ them, you would need to set up a training school and this is why perhaps there has been an explosion in training budgets in Nigerian companies. The graduates who come out of Nigerian schools cannot speak English. They do not know the difference between a formal and an informal letter. You should not be surprised if they show up in the office wearing those rags that they call clothes. They behave so badly senior managers are the ones who now have to act in loco parentis. Some of the senior managers are themselves products of a bad era, creating a community of Nigerian managers and their staff who are totally lacking in skills and competence. They pollute the environment.  Even when companies recruit foreign graduates, the ones who studied abroad, it is often difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. Many of those pretty looking ladies and smart boys that you meet in banking halls who speak through their noses have actually never gone anywhere beyond Lekki or Surulere. They have international passports and have had the privilege of getting a visa and probably spent two weeks in downtown Europe, and they would have returned with such strange accents you would think that their grandmother came from Europe.

Nigeria must resolve the crisis in the education sector, starting this time from top to bottom. Having a key percentage of Nigerians in the top educational range sitting at home, doing nothing, and embracing depression, indeed some university lecturers have become petty traders, some of the women I hear, now prepare and sell nkwobi and pepper-soup, is disgraceful to the nation. Ministers of the Federal Republic abusing and threatening university teachers, will not solve the problem.  The Minister of Education has missed the two-week deadline. ASUU and other unions are still on strike. As things stand, our universities may remain shut until after the 2023 general elections.

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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Chijioke Okoli SAN

Topic: Proposed removal of President Buhari from office by lawmakers

Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022

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I am concerned, but not shocked in any way, that the most prominent reaction to the interview that Arise News conducted last week with the Presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar has been sheer tittle-tattle about location, and format and silly ego games. It is a measure of the confusion in the land, and the failure to focus on ideas and concrete issues. The big problem that we face in this country, six months to the 2023 general election is the obsession with minutiae and the irrelevant. This must be considered a national tragedy considering the challenges before us. Thousands, if not millions of young Nigerians burn hours on the social media/internet abusing persons engaged in productive work, while they idle away in their ignorance and obscurantism. Times like this call for a greater deployment of time and intelligence, because Nigeria indeed, now more than before in the last two decades, stands at the brink of a precipice. But alas, Nigeria is saddled with a growing generation of idlers who think that their lives are enriched by pulling down others. But while these ordinary, eponymously anonymous persons need not detain serious minded persons from forging ahead, it must be noted that the emergent political elite is not in any way better. Its members are worse in terms of intellect, capacity, and character. This forces us to ask that question again: what a country! Or as the sage, Chinua Achebe, put it: “There was a country!”. The race to 2023 is a painful reminder of how the biggest tragedy that has befallen Nigeria is the absence of ideas, the collapse of good reason, and the brazen triumph of mediocrity and selective amnesia.

My concern is this: what is the central election issue as Nigeria prepares for the 2023 general elections? Where is that consensus that propels a nation? It is six months to Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, can anyone put his or her finger on any big issues of direct relevance within the context of the Constitution and the people’s expectations? I will address these same questions anon. But to get an idea of my drift, I would like to draw attention to what is currently going on in Britain. There is a bitter, blue-on-blue acrimonious fight for the seat of the Prime Minister of the UK within the ruling Conservative Party. The battle began with Prime Minister Boris Johnson losing the support and confidence of members of his own party and even if he survived two confidence votes, it eventually became clear that with the party-gate scandal and the abandonment of his government on the grounds of principle by many of his key persons, he had lost the support of his own party. From party-gate to everything else, Boris Johnson was his own assassin. He committed political suicide, damaged his own legacy and lost the moral right to lead. The practicality of his rejection is one of the reasons why I argue that Nigeria, going forward, should consider the option of a return to a parliamentary system of government or a combination of the parliamentary and the presidential, as has been robustly canvassed in the extant literature on the subject. The Presidential system creates monarchs, and that is precisely what it does in developing economies. A parliamentary system places greater emphasis on accountability and responsibility at all levels, and the people’s voice. That is what we need. But what do we have?    

Nigeria’s political process is inundated with nonsense for structural reasons and what we have is a mad-house.  In the UK at the moment, there is a race to succeed Boris Johnson. There is a consensus that the Prime Minister has overstayed his welcome. His party needs to get rid of him, to protect the party ahead of the next general elections. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister has desecrated the seat long enough. He has resigned. He will quit on September 5. But as his party, the Tories seek to appoint a new leader and a new Prime Minister, what we see is a focus on the issues. About eleven candidates began the race for No. 10 but after five ballots within the party the choice has been narrowed down to former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Before this Liz vs Rishi moment, it must be noted that the arguments have been about issues and the British people – what can be done to make their lot better, what can be done to reinvent the party and deliver better dividends to the people in the face of an excruciating cost of living crisis – the cost of gas is high, the NHS is in trouble, inflation is so high, the Bank of England has had to tighten rates five times, persons in England now skip meals, confronted as they are by foodflation-  so, how to save the Tory party and move beyond Boris Johnson. We have seen in that example, even if the eventual choice would be determined by a minority of about 160, 00 Tory party members, a focus on the big issues that are relevant to the people’s interests. Human beings will ways be human, I know that, but even the personal attacks that we have seen in the Tory dog-fight: on Penny Mordaunt, on Sunak’s centrism, Liz Truss’s extreme right politics have all been within the context of ideas and ideologies. The top contestants are talking about China, immigration, national security, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, cost of living crisis, climate change, tax cuts and investments. When the British eventually make their choice at the current intra-party level, it would be a choice between definite ideas, and when they do so in a future general election, it would also be about ideas and the people’s interest.

While the British are in that mode right now, Nigeria is also looking for new leadership, from a choice of 18 political parties and Presidential candidates. Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak had their first, major, one-on-one debate at 9 pm on Monday. The debate continues today, on Tuesday. Both debates matter because the candidates are spelling out their mission and vision. They will be watched closely and scrutinized by their publics, and whoever wins and emerges through the process would be convinced that the battle was truly won and lost as both candidates continue to slug it out on the battle-grounds.   Here, in Nigeria, the candidates are not talking to the people. With the key exception of Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Omoyele Sowore of the Africa Acton Congress (AAC), who both run movements, not political parties, the other candidates are busy talking to their kind: godfathers, persons they think control Nigeria, and who can fix the election for them, and the party elite. When they remember the people, they throw money at them, and promise to give them more money if they are elected. 

Nigeria, like many developing countries of the world that jumped on the democratization scheme in the early 90s, does not understand what it means nor have the people been able to domesticate the idea of democracy. The democratic project was imposed by the West as a one-size-fits all proposition, but the many contradictions that this has thrown up is beguiling. To use Nigeria as an example, it would be in order to say that Nigeria is not ready for democracy, certainly not in the present shape in which it is. Nigerian politicians are royalists with an undeserved sense of entitlement. They want power because power is sweet and grants a sense of control, relevance and importance. Our democracy is a democracy of terrorists, scavengers and opportunists. This is why there is a terrible gap between those at the apex and those at the base of society. Those who argue that the electorate should get their voters’ cards and make informed choices at the polls next year are all correct, and spot on, but what is anyone doing about the people’s cynicism, and the banditi-zation of Nigerian politics?  In the absence of ideas and good conduct by the political elite, the people are in order to be cynical, as they have ever been, and what we see in the current lead up to Nigeria’s 2023 general election is chaotic cynicism.  

Back to our original question: what are the big issues in Nigerian politics at this moment?  The multiple reactions that have attended the Arise News interview with PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar simply show the lack of preparedness at the highest levels in this country. Nobody is talking about ideas. The reactions have been about peripheral issues, not ideas. Arise News sat with Atiku for a whole hour and raised issues ranging from politics to economy, relationships and other matters Nigeriana. The Nigerian social media mob took up editorial duties that is entirely not their business as they focused on sponsored and teleguided BS and in their sponsored frenzy, they failed to look at key issues. The only exception in this regard would be in my view, Farooq Kperogi, the scholar and columnist, who resisted and cleverly avoided a habitual tendency to be unkind to other people’s efforts. He focused on bigger issues. But what came from the other communities, that is, the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Tinubu Campaign Organization, the Obidient movement supporting Peter Obi, and the Wike Camp, were the usual diatribe about ego: my candidate is better than yours, you lied against me. Within 48 hours, the whole thing degenerated into an ego game. Wike is threatening to talk later and reveal mountains of truth. He should stop threatening. If he has anything to say, let him go ahead and do so forthwith.  Tinubu’s people have called Atiku a liar on the subject of Muslim-Muslim ticket. Atiku says he wants Tinubu in a one-on-one, one hour debate to settle the matter once and for all. Tinubu, we are told, has a memory loss issue. 

I won’t be surprised if the two candidates start talking about whose wife is more beautiful and who can still crack the best fires in the other room, or who is richer, or more energetic. The Tinubu group picked on the smallest issues in the Atiku conversation, talking about Abraham Lincoln, the politics of running mates, whereas there are more important issues about the economy, privatization, national security, education and health. The way the Nigerian process is going, nobody will talk about what concerns the people. The politicians will share money on or before election day, and given the arrest of persons during the recent Ekiti and Osun Gubernatorial, off-cycle elections, the political bandits will find smarter ways of buying votes, and the ordinary people will find new ways of collecting electoral bribe. It is safe to say that there is no tested, effective law in place yet that addresses this challenge. 

So, why are ideas no longer relevant in Nigerian politics?  Most of the 18 Presidential candidates have no manifesto. For more than two weeks, the Tinubu Campaign Organization, after rejecting a document that was widely circulated threatened to release a manifesto. Nobody has seen that manifesto yet. What we see are reactions to rival political candidates on peripheral issues. More serious candidates who could have been on the ballot ironically have since been pushed out of the race. Where is Kingsley Moghalu for example? And why is Omoyele Sowore being treated like a student unionist? And why has Peter Obi been reduced to a social media sensation? Ideas, Ideas, ideas. We can’t get anything concrete. Nobody listens to ideas, because the ones that are ready to promote them are not given the opportunity to do so. Those who try to generate ideas, outside partisan boundaries, are treated badly. In 2015, it would be remembered that the APC in seeking to wrest power from the ruling PDP tried to construct its gambit around ideas: security, the economy and fight against corruption. In 2019, the ruling party sustained the same mantra and asked for an opportunity to complete what it started. In 2022/2023, the main gladiators are terribly distracted.  

Yet, the major issue in Nigeria’s democracy – federal and state levels today, should be ideas and specific performance. Since the beginning of this campaign, the main candidates have discussed nothing but religion, ethnicity, personal health, clothing, and personality. The 2023 campaign has been dominated by personal ambition and expectations and trivia. Many of the presidential candidates that have emerged do not even have manifestoes. Nobody knows what they stand for or what they intend to do, not even what they understand about the task ahead. Titles are fashionable in Nigeria. Power is desirable. The allure of position and influence is magnetic. Nigerians would jump at anything along this spectrum. They want titles, not responsibility. This is why I think the reaction to the Arise News conversation with Atiku Abubakar veered off from the centre to the periphery. There are issues indicated in that conversation and alive in the public domain that have been conveniently ignored.    

NNPC has just been unveiled as a new, commercial entity, in an industry that accounts for 80% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. What do the Presidential candidates intend to do about that?  Nigeria has a debt to revenue ratio crisis, with debt service cost exceeding revenue by about 119% per cent? The national grid continues to collapse and function epileptically. Inflation is as high as 18.6%. There is unemployment in the land. Food inflation as well. Life is so insecure, terrorists are threatening to abduct the President, Senators and Governors and either kill them or sell them into slavery, and they sound very serious about that objective. Yesterday, they even made an effort to engage the Presidential guards in Abuja. The country also faces a serious foreign exchange crisis – it is so bad that even bread makers are threatening to go on strike because they cannot access forex and raw materials. The aviation sector is down. The nation’s currency has lost everything including its integrity, the big question is how to save it. In real terms, this country is on the way to Venezuela if not Sri Lanka or Lebanon. These are important issues that should engage the attention of those who want to rule the country. But the space has been taken over by spokespersons writing platitudes and reticent candidates who piggy-back on the dominance of their parties and abdicate responsibility without negotiating the issues and a proper assessment of the chaos that is upon us. The country’s destiny seems postponed. This trend must change.  Every Presidential candidate should be shown the video of yesterday’s UK Prime Ministerial debate between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.

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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Topic: Unveiling of the new NNPC

Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022

Guest: Mascot Ogunjemiyo (Oil & Gas Analyst)

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On Monday, Mercy Chinwo, the famous gospel singer, began her marital journey with Blessed Uzochikwa, the head pastor of The Water Brook Church in Lagos.

The marriage introduction took place in Portharcourt, the capital of Rivers state.

The event witnessed the presence of friends and colleagues of the couple including Banky W and Adesua Etomi.

In videos and photos that surfaced on social media, the gospel singer is seen gushing over her husband at the wedding introduction.

The star-studded event saw the families and prospective inlaws of Mercy and Blessed officially introduced to one another as a new relationship is birthed.

Mercy also shared a couple of videos from the event on Instagram.

One of the captions read: “My joy knows no bounds. Thank you Jesus.”

The couple announced their engagement on June 23.

Chinwo, who won season 2 of the Nigerian Idol, has continued to enjoy fame in the country’s gospel music scene.

The 31-year-old singer has put out several hit gospel tracks including ‘Chinedum’, ‘Onyedikagi’, ‘Excess Love’, and ‘Obinasom’.

Blessed, on the other hand, is also popular for his inspirational messages.

See photos below:

[TheCable]

This day, July 19 should go down as a special moment in the economic history of Nigeria – the day when the country’s main vehicle for economic survival, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is officially unveiled by the incumbent President as a commercial venture. The transition took effect on July 1, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021. But by noon today, NNPC would have formally made that transition from being a corporation to become a limited liability company, a company limited by shares, to be known hereafter as NNPC Limited, that is a commercial venture. In some of our media platforms in the last few days, the NNPC hierarchy has been staging a song and a dance over the fact that the NNPC was indeed about to become a new entity. What does this mean in real terms for Nigerians? While we are all obsessed with politics, the Osun Gubernatorial election being the latest menu on the plate of the commentariat and the political elite, it seems to me that the transition that is to be unveiled today at the NNPC deserves some interest. Established in 1977, 45 years ago, the NNPC manages Nigeria’s crude oil, gas and petrochemical resources, the joint venture between Nigeria and oil multinationals, and also engages in petroleum exploration and production through the country’s four refineries. 

Crude oil accounts for more than 80% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. With Nigeria identified as the sixth largest oil producer in the world, and with the country blessed with the sweet, low-sulphur, top grade Brent Crude variety, crude oil was effectively Nigeria’s equivalent of manna from Heaven. In due course, we were told that Nigeria is even more of a gas producing country than an oil dependent country. Milk and honey practically flow under Nigeria’s soil. It has been NNPC’s business to manage all of that, and bring profit to the country. Nigeria is not the only country that has been so privileged. They have oil and gas in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, UAE, Venezuela (bad reference in the circumstance), Libya, Kuwait, the United States, Norway and quite a number of other countries. Whereas oil and gas resources have brought some countries power and glory, Nigeria’s experience has been mixed and problematic. From being a resource-rich country in the 70s and 80s, crude oil in particular has turned out to be a source of agony and pain for Nigeria. We squandered the riches. A terrible economy developed over the years around oil and gas. Politics, ethnicity, greed, corruption and all the other ailments that assail the country found a home in the oil and gas sector. This should not be surprising. The easiest way to make money in Nigeria is to get into the oily business. It was a matter of time before the people would begin to agitate for reforms and a change of regime. And it happened. Oil resource became the target of seething anger within the system. Those who believe that the oil and gas that come from their soil in the Niger Delta is theirs see no reason why anyone, any group or any region that does not produce oil and gas should benefit from other people’s endowments in a supposedly federal system.  Oil became political. Politics became oily and gassy. Right at the centre of this conundrum was the NNPC, and the country’s Ministry of Petroleum Resources and everything attached thereto.

To address both the sentiments and the substance around this issue, there have been calls for resource control. From Adaka Boro to Ken Saro-Wiwa and beyond, there have been calls for true federalism, secession, respect for the rights of ethnic minorities, and counter arguments along geographical lines with the North pitched against the South on the question of who owns what, who should get what, and what share – Nigeria’s main revenue being oil and gas. In due course, the Petroleum Industry Bill was introduced to address many of the issues: governance, regulatory frameworks, community relations and management. When President Muhammadu Buhari unveils a new NNPC this morning, with a new brand, logo and identity, NNPC Limited emerging in place of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, he would be giving effect to a major plank of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).  President Buhari can comfortably claim the PIA as one of the achievements of his administration. For decades, Nigerians complained about the need for reform in the oil and gas sector. They asked for a review of joint venture frameworks. They wanted a new NNPC that would be organized for productivity and efficiency and not a mere government parastatal bogged down by politics and graft. Oil bearing communities also had their demands relating to justice, equity and fairness and how these have been treated shabbily within the larger Nigerian equation.

For decades, the Nigerian legislature toyed with the law. Under Buhari, the law was passed. It seeks to provide a new governance framework in the oil and gas sector. The law removes the subsidy in the downstream sector especially with regard to petrol. It decrees a transformation of the NNPC into a profit making, independent, commercial venture. Before now, the NNPC has been run as a cash cow for the Nigerian Government, as a dependent public sector agency. It manages the oil and gas resources of the country, makes money, transmits same to the Treasury. Every month, state governments carry bowls in hands, rush to Abuja and at what is called the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee meeting (FAAC), collect their own share of the national cake. Everyone got so greedy, everything got so mismanaged, NNPC got to a point it started protesting that there was very little to share or add again.  For months, the NPPC using the excuse of under-recovery and subsidy has not been able to contribute as much as it should to the national purse. This is one reason why its reform is imperative. The PIA has offered a window but how open is that window?

The unveiling of a new NNPC should be seen correctly by industry watchers as a positive development. The need for the transition as proposed is justified by how Nigeria’s national oil company performs badly against its peers. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia has been using its energy resources as a weapon against Europe which depended on Russia for about 40% of its energy needs. Russia simply turned off the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for routine maintenance, and asked for payments in rouble, to push Europe into confusion, and energy prices to the roof. Countries with high demand for energy are groaning. Countries that are rich in oil and gas are smiling: Saudi Arabia and other countries of the Middle East are being wooed as the West looks for alternative sources of energy. The United States is wooing Saudi Arabia afresh. It has tried to soften a bit on Venezuela. Sri Lanka in the Indian sub-ocean is in trouble in part because it cannot provide fuel, food and medicines for the people. Pakistan is hanging on to the IMF to bail it out. Cost of living crisis is a major issue in Great Britain. While Europe is looking towards Algeria, Tunisia, and Angola for solutions and alternatives, Nigeria has been caught flat-footed. Rather than turn the current global crisis into an advantage, we are busy here lamenting that rising oil prices amount to a curse for Nigeria. We are not befitting because we are not ready. In today’s global energy mix, Nigeria pays a huge price for its own failures in managing its main resource and the plain view reason is this: the failure of leadership.  

NNPC wears a new toga today. We have made that point. Restructuring of the public sector has been a recurring decimal in Nigeria’s economic history. The question has always been: how can public enterprises be made more profitable: commercialization, privatization or liberalization? Liberalization as in the telecommunication sector has resulted in growth and innovation and the end of the inefficiency of the old, state-owned NITEL. That is one good example. In a deregulated regime, the state has no control over price. It can only regulate quality. Under a privatization regime, the state can regulate, but the entity is controlled by its shareholders. The fundamental thing is: a private entity is after the maximization of profit and minimal cost.  What has happened to the NNPC is commercialization, not privatization. But don’t get it twisted: NNPC still remains in the public sector. That is why it is still called Nigerian National… The only difference is that as a commercial entity, it will now have to pay more attention to its profit and cost centres. While there is a limit to which it can dictate price and profit, it must be noted that it can no longer do business as usual.

What is also new is that while the NNPC may still have a relationship with government, the same government can no longer have control over the staffing of the NNPC. The control of the Minister of Petroleum will be limited. As a commercial entity, the NNPC is beholden to its shareholders. Competence, quality will determine recruitment. The old practice of anyone in government sending notes for NNPC allocation or positions would be untenable under the new arrangement. Nobody can send in a note anyhow. The influence of rent collectors would be watered down, if not completely eliminated. It also means that the country can no longer depend mainly on NNPC for Federation Accounts returns (FAAC). The Federal Government would be entitled strictly to returns on its shares.  In all of these regards, today’s development, NNPC’s transition into a commercial entity is a laudable development. The Group CEO of the new company, the erstwhile Group GMD of the NNPC whose title has thus changed, has alluded much to this when he made it clear in the past few days that (i) NNPC going forward is responsible to its shareholders as a limited liability company, (2) whatever service it provides for the Federal Government would be for a fee, (3) subsidy is not the responsibility of the NNPC, but that of the Federal Government and (iv) NNPC is committed to transparency and accountability, and accounting rules.

At the unveiling today, the Buhari government can commend itself for seeing through the PIA. But the skeptics are unrelenting and they have raised issues that we need to worry about. They argue for example that it is indeed a good and proper thing to seek to make the NNPC as efficient and as profitable as Saudi Arabia’s ARAMCO and other peers elsewhere but the problem is that NNPC is still tied to the apron strings of government. Most of the workers are still workers of the Nigerian government. As a commercial entity, it should be possible for the company to source its own expertise, consultants and staff from anywhere without the Nigerian government imposing the constraints of ethnicity and federal character.  The NNPC of old ran a Nigerian-factor regime where some characters thought access to political power and influence granted them automatic control over the resource management company. Such a system would not be acceptable under the new mode of doing business. That has to change forthwith, to send the strong signal that it is indeed no longer business as usual. Second, the much-talked about NNPC shareholders are the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MoFI) and the Nigerian Treasury, which are both government entities. NNPC says it will send debit and credit notes for services rendered to demonstrate its own accountability and commitment to EITI principles. MoFI can claim that it represents the Nigerian people. What will NNPC Ltd do if government fails to pay – this same government that does not pay electricity bills or ASUU salaries? And as things stand, it looks like NNPC truly can no longer be held responsible for monthly contributions to the Federation Account.   

Nonetheless, the NNPC as a commercial entity can only succeed as much as the Federal Government wants it to. As long as the NNPC is government-linked, there will be issues. For the NNPC to succeed, it needs to function under a government that understands the meaning and implications of profit and loss. There is a need for deep reform, for the people’s overall benefit. The meaning of the new dispensation is that NNPC would have no option but to send debit notes to the Federal Government, because the company won’t be able to hide the gaps in its balance sheet. The Buhari government does not have this profit and loss orientation mindset that is required to birth a new NNPC.  The responsibility for that would have to be taken up perhaps by a new government. We can only hope that the would-be next President of Nigeria, whoever he turns out to be, is thinking of this, from both an economic and national security perspective. A food for thought is the position that in the long run, the NNPC must be privatized. Its board must not be a political Board, it must be a commerce-oriented Board. The experts must be allowed to do their job, not politicians, seeking rent. NNPC shares must be sold directly to the public as a company under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA).

There is the unresolved issue of refineries. There is nothing wrong in Nigeria having a national oil company, but to save the NNPC, it is important to keep the fundamentals in mind. NNPC’s transformation comes at a time when the world faces an energy crisis, and a cost-of-living dilemma. It makes no sense that the country’s four refineries are grounded, or running at a loss. It is shameful that Nigeria cannot meet its OPEC quota. It is scandalous that it is only just now that we are beginning to talk more seriously about transparency and accountability in the management of the country’s most strategic resource. The emergence of a new NNPC is a good idea, but it seems to me that the best that the Mele Kyari-team can do, for now, is to lay the foundation for a more far-reaching process. Under Mele Kyari’s watch, the NNPC published its first audited accounts in 43 years in 2020!   The new NNPC is expected to do things differently to attract investment, promote innovation, eliminate corruption and inefficiency, and ensure clarity. It must measure up like Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, and Brazil’s Petrobras. Its business model must work for the country’s benefit. The new NPPC must represent a transition in real terms into a new style and philosophy.