Underlying the notion of celebration everywhere is the idea of accomplishments and success. This is why Yoruba people in Nigeria are generally renowned for their sometimes lavish weekend parties and rejoicings. 

Sunday, July 8, was no different as the people of Ikenne and their friends across the nation celebrated their illustrious son and associate, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, after his tour of duty and eight meritorious years of service to the nation as Vice President. I need not state that the Prof was with his beautiful wife, Oludolapo, whom he fondly calls ‘’Dolly’’. She is the granddaughter of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo. Ikenne has always seen big parties, big funerals and lavish pageantries. But the Osinbajo reception was a grand event that many will not forget so soon.

Right from the streets you wouldn't miss the spirit of rejoicing and excitement that the Ikenne Development Association was bringing home the immediate past VP for such a time of thanksgiving.

Guests from across the country descended on the sprawling city in Ogun State. Some even arrived the state a day or two earlier. They turned up in colours – politicians, governors, traditional rulers, businesspeople, academicians, the young and old. Ordinary folks were also welcome. The guests were not disappointed as Ikenne Development Association, the hosts and organizers of the event, had spared no expense in delivering the right degree of pomp. The large hall, beautifully decorated, was full to capacity. It was the first time the new hall was in use as the IDA had just completed the project in time to honour the law professor who became VP from among them.

 There were dances, songs, tributes and speeches. The feeling in the air was one of satisfactory attainment. Merriments were in surplus. The atmosphere was convivial and joyous. 

Ikenne has been famous for ages for many reasons. The late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Tai Solarin, hailed from there. The town was also made famous by Mayflower School, located on a 90-acre piece of estate and founded on January 27, 1956, by the Solarin, a Nigerian educator, humanist and social crusader. Ikenne was a Mecca of sorts for politicians and journalists when Chief Awolowo was alive; and when he died in 1987, nearly every person of note showed up. Another big crowd returned to the town in 2015 when Awo’s widow, Chief HID Awolowo passed away. I recall that President Muhammadu Buhari attended her funeral. Chief Awolowo’s mausoleum remains a major attraction. Ikenne is also the hometown of 13 legal luminaries, all senior advocates. Prof Osinbajo himself is the seventh of them. I do not know of any other town in the country that produces so many SANs. 

The town has recently been provided with many amenities including hospitals, market, schools, solar-powered street lights thanks to the intervention of Prof Osinbajo. So, it was not a surprise that practically everybody had lined up the streets to welcome Prof. Osinbajo’s motorcade when he arrived that Sunday afternoon.

Commercial motor cycle riders made up for police escort riders just like they would do for a president or vice president. It was a clear case of a prophet being honoured at home! Osinbajo’s entrance with his wife and entourage was grand as he exchanged banters acknowledged sporadic burst of affection and greetings by the many guests and townsfolk.

Prayers and National Anthem over, the event began with introductions of guests. Among them were three serving governors, two of them from the PDP: Prince Dapo Abiodun (Ogun); Godwin Obaseki (Edo) and Duoye Diri (Bayelsa). Others were Boss Mustapha, the former SGF, former ministers Rauf Aregbesola and Niyi Adebayo both of whom were also former Governors of Osun and Ekiti States. There were also former Governors- Donald Duke-Cross River and Sen. Serieke Dickson-Bayelsa, again from the PDP, driving home Osinbajo’s well known bipartisan appeal, which was demonstrated all through his 8-year tenure.

The Managing Director of NDPHC, Mr. Chiedu Ugbo, the Director-General of BPE, Mr. Alex Okoh and Mr. Laolu Akande, the VP’S official spokesperson while in office and now Editor in Chief of Empowered Newswire were also in attendance.

The Akarigbo of Remoland and paramount ruler of the entire towns making Remoland, Oba Babatunde Adewale Ajayi was also seated. In all parts of Nigeria, such high-profile events must be graced by the traditional chiefs of the community. Our traditions and customs add colour and flavour to our way of life and enriches the diversity of our federation. 

Others who attended the high-profile gathering were the Alakenne of Ikenne land, Oba Onakade; Alhaja Abimbola Jakande; Dr. Yemi Ogunbiyi; Chief Wale Babalakin, SAN, and Mr. Segun Awolowo, Dr. Nicolas Auddifren, Pastor Seyi Malomo amongst others.

Then came time for speeches. All the governors, traditional rules and other important guests took turns to pay glowing tribute to Prof Osinbajo for his sterling leadership qualities, service to the country, love for the people and contributions to the success of the Buhari administration.

In his remarks, Osinbajo renewed his commitment to work for the development and support of Ikenne Remo, his home town. He described the place as ‘’an incredible town”, drawing a long applause from the audience.

Resplendent in white agbada, Osinbajo said, “Ikenne is a great place indeed and of course, we know that this is the home of our sage and our father, the great Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the man for whom free education was attributed, and also good governance and infrastructure all over the Western region was attributed. 

“I say to all the young men and women here, your progress has only begun, where ever it is that we (the older ones) stop is only your own starting point. We are here to support and enable you to reach the height you can achieve.” He thanked the people for the thanksgiving reception. “Today is a day of thanksgiving and I thank the Almighty God and will continue to thank Him. I also want to thank so many of you who are here. It has been a great honour for me. The Almighty God who has enabled you to honour me in this way will honour you too. God will bless you and the name of the Lord will be glorified in your homes and everywhere you go,” Prof. Osinbajo said. 

Turning especially to Gov. Abiodun, Osinbajo expressed his gratitude for the support he had received from his State Governor.

“I thank you for not just your speech, but for your encouragement through the years and through the times. You have proven to be a brother indeed. 

“His Excellency, the Governor of Edo State, my dear brother Godwin Obaseki and his amiable wife, Mrs Betsy Obaseki, thank you for making the time today. Your Excellency, the Governor of Bayelsa, Duoye Diri, my brother and friend of so many years, thank you for not just coming alone, but coming with a delegation from Bayelsa State. I have the greatest love and respect for you. Former Governor of Bayelsa, State Seriake Dickson who is also our in-law, thank you for honouring me today.” 

Osinbajo also lauded other guests like the former Governors of Osun and Cross River States, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Donald Duke, as well as the immediate past Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha and immediate past Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Otunba Niyi Adebayo. Prof. Osinbajo acknowledged the support he received from the Akarigbo of Remo, Oba Babatunde Ajayi, stating that “there is no time that he has not taken a personal interest in all my affairs, political and whatever affair. He has demonstrated that truly he is a father of the Remo nation’’. 

The immediate past Vice President thanked the Chairman of this occasion, Otunba Adeleke Adeshina. “He is a man who through the years has shown great interest in the affairs of not just Ikenne and Remo, but in the affairs of this nation. He continues to serve this nation faithfully,” Prof Osinbajo said.

When Governor Dapo Abiodun spoke earlier, he was filled with gratitude.He expressed the appreciation of the government and the entire people of Ogun State to God for the strength and wisdom given to Prof. Osinbajo through which he was able to navigate Nigerian politics and government. “Indeed, one of the things that put Ogun State on the world map is the trail-blazing records that the sons and daughters of our dear State have set in different fields of human endeavour. Among numerous others, the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, GCFR, stands tall in governance and public administration. “In furtherance of his legacy and ideology, Prof Osinbajo has not only distinguished himself in his calling but also raised the bar in good governance. Our own Prof, in whom we are well pleased, we all know is a prodigious intellect.” The governor noted that the State is “proud that Professor Osinbajo has exhibited an unwavering commitment to the socio-economic and political development of our dear Nation, Nigeria. You served with dignity, integrity and utmost character. Congratulations! The government and people of Ogun State are very proud of you. Now that you are back at home, we will continue to tap into your wealth of experience, especially in matters relating to good governance.”

Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki said working with Osinbajo as Vice President was a special experience for him and he was eternally grateful for the opportunity. "Working with a man who had a vision, a man who is committed to this country, a man who has character and a man who has integrity, for me was a unique experience," Obaseki said.

"During our National Economic Council (NEC) sessions, we see an intellectual, who worked through all the papers presented to us. I know Ikenne people are known for hard work and diligence. He brought those characteristics to us in NEC. Your Excellency, we say thank you’’.

Former Bayelsa State Governor, Seriake Dickson in his tribute said, "we are here because we see in the former Vice President a man of character, a man who served this country meritoriously. We are also here in the reciprocity of whom the former vice president has been to our state in his official capacity as Vice President of this country," Dickson said, adding that Osinbajo had visited Bayelsa before and during his tenure as governor not less than five times officially. ‘’At any time that we called upon him to do one thing or the other, he has always been there. He has done a lot for our state, Bayelsa."

The Akarigbo of Remoland, Oba Babatunde Ajayi, in his address, lauded the patriotism of the former VP, commended him for his meritorious eight years of service to Nigeria, saying Osinbajo represented them very well. Attesting to Osinbajo's integrity, the monarch recalled a time when some unfounded allegations were being orchestrated politically against Osinbajo in the midst of two-term tenure, saying he went to inquire from the former VP about what happened and Osinbajo confidently spoke out nailing the wild claims in the coffin.

He said, "I recall when he was at the helm of affairs. I had to gather eminent sons and daughters of Remo; we went to see him in Lagos. We asked him ‘Mr Vice President all these things we are hearing are they true that you took this, you took that’? 

"He looked me right in the eyes and said Kabiyesi, I know where I am coming from before I became the Vice President, I knew who I was with all the opportunities I now have, I won't take anybody's kobo.

"Immediately he told us that, we went on the offensive saying it is not possible, It can't happen because we believed what he told us. Osinbajo is a man of integrity and he has represented us well,' His Royal Majesty concluded.

It would be recalled indeed that many of those who had published the allegations not only retracted the story but also issued public apologies.

The President of Ikenne Development Association, Otunba Adedoyin Adesina, who is the Aare Asoludero of Ikenne land, had in his welcome address, thanked Osinbanjo for the numerous projects he spearheaded in his hometown throughout his eight-year tenure. The guests were amazed when the Otunba started reeling out the projects one by one. He also stated that it was Osinbajo who turned the sod for the construction of the event center used for the thanksgiving and appreciation event in his honour. "Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, it is remarkable to highlight that the foundation laying ceremony of the edifice that we are in today was done by our former Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo on the 7th of November 2015," Otunba said. The applause was huge.

That applause was not only for the litany of human capital development and infrastructure projects that the immediate past VP facilitated but also the sense of overwhelming fulfillment in Ikenne and across Nigeria that Prof. Osinbajo served diligently and with all his heart. This was the overall spirit at Ikenne on that Sunday afternoon.

As I was in the process of releasing this piece into the mass media,the news broke that President Tinubu had, on Wednesday, July 12,put forward a request to the House of Representatives, HoR, for five hundred (N500b) billion naira as extra funds for the provision of succour for the masses undergoing what Mr. President referred to as pains similar to childbirth pangs experienced by women who are mothers.

The sum is to be specifically deployed in the provision of succour to the distressed masses due to the immediate consequences of the withdrawal of subsidies on both petrol and the naira policies being implemented by the incumbent administration.

The funds are expected to be deducted from the 2022 supplementary appropriation act, which has a provision of N819.5 billion naira for palliatives envisaged by the predecessor administration.

It was quite a pleasant co-incidence to me because a critical question that I had posed in the later part of this piece before the request for approval for the allocation was: where would President Tinubu find the funds to provide the much-needed cushion for his temporarily painful but ultimately economically revolutionary policies?

Having searched and not being able to identify other more viable alternatives on the horizon,my answer to the question is that taking the option of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) loan may hold a better promise for our beleaguered country.

That is because, although Nigeria is currently distressed financially,it is endowed with the resources and potential to thrive as a prosperous and successful country, which are yet to be tapped or harnessed.

But with the self-imposed reforms—removal of petrol subsidies and end of multiple exchange rates of the naira with foreign currencies—that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government has voluntarily embarked upon in less than 45 days of being on the saddle of leadership,Nigeria is eminently qualified to seek and obtain the IMF loan.

Having basically fulfilled all the loan conditionalities made by the IMF as far back as 1986 under the watch of then military president Gen.Ibrahim Babangida, IBB,through the sweeping reforms introduced by President Tinubu via his Tinubunomics initiative since May 29 this year, the question that comes to mind would be: is Nigeria taking the IMF loan?

Everyone knows that our country is in dire need of revenue, and its external debt burden, which is hovering around fifty trillion (N50 trillion) naira added to its local debt, brings its indebtedness to an estimated eighty trillion (N80 trillion) naira. This has been acknowledged as unsustainable.

And given the paucity of revenue inflow that has been compounded by an epidemic and pernicious crude oil theft (Nigeria’s main source of revenue) that has assumed an alarming dimension,the country may not have any other option than to go the way of its neighbour, Ghana, which recently sought and received a loan of three billion dollars from the International Monetary Fund,IMF.

The option of an IMF loan recommends itself because it is becoming increasingly difficult for Nigeria to service her external debt due to the fact that the cost of servicing it practically consumes most of the revenue accruing into the coffers of the federal government, to the extent that our country’s debt to equity ratio is in negative territory and the World Bank reckons that our debt servicing obligations matched against our national income are at about 96%.

In fact,by some estimates in some quarters a year ago, our debt payment obligations (all things remaining the same) would outstrip our revenue inflow in less than one year.

Consequently,in recent times, there has been very little or nothing left to apply in providing infrastructure or even something as basic as basic remedies or palliatives for the hardship triggered by the removal of subsidies on the pump price of petrol and multiple naira exchange rate unification in the last month of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s sweeping economic reforms.

For instance,the economy is in such dire straits that it is the four hundred (N400m) that used to be pushed into the black hole, otherwise known as the petrol subsidy, on a daily basis and the four hundred billion (N400b) on a monthly basis that are being targeted as the funds for the new administration to kick start the much anticipated palliatives to ameliorate the hardships currently being faced by the Nigerian masses.

It may be recalled that the outgoing administration of President Mohammadu Buhari had programmed for the petrol subsidy regime to be over at the end of last June, beyond which there was no financial provision in 2023.

And the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (NNPCL) had claimed that the federal government was owing it a princely sum of N2.8 trillion naira after netting off the income from crude oil sales from the cost of petrol imports.

That is despite the fact that N3.5 trillion was provided in the 2023 budget for petrol subsidy up until June, which is just half of the year after N6 trillion was appropriated as subsidy for petrol in 2022.
That brings subsidy in 30 months to a mind-boggling N9.5 trillion, for which the HoRs is determined to investigate its disbursement.

That is on top of Nigeria producing crude oil below the 1.8 million barrels a day quota from OPEC and its income from the sale of the commodity, which constitutes about 79% of our country’s foreign exchange earnings (gas is 11%), and as a result earning only a paltry income in the neighbourhood of $5 billion, which when converted to the naira is approximately less than N30 trillion annually.

Meanwhile, the World Bank has estimated that about $5.6 billion would be saved owing to subsidy removal from petrol and naira, which is about half of the over $10 billion that the country used to earn annually in the not too distant past.

In light of the above,despite the best efforts of tax experts,finding funds to sustain the government would be like trying to squeeze water out of stone.

And even with the dollar proceeds hitherto applied in defending the naira by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) via weekly interventions in the foreign exchange market through the sale of dollars to a vast array of bureau de change outfits that were mainly owned by government officials and fronted for by surrogates located in popular hotels, airports, and strategic street corners,the bonanza is not available anymore as NNPC ltd has been mandated to use the dollar income from crude oil sales to import petrol into Nigeria and sell at subsidised rates, which has been returning a net deficit for the federation.

At some point, the weekly dollar bazaar, which was carried out ostensibly to shore up the naira/FX rate, was no longer available for the twin reasons of crude oil proceeds being exclusively managed by NNPCL, which collects and uses the funds to import refined petroleum products into our country and which it subsidises before it is retailed to motorists.

And it is a largesse diverted to the NNPC that has also ended with
President Tinubu’s bombshell decision or pronouncement in his inauguration speech on May 29: "Petrol subsidy is gone ".

As observed earlier, NNPCL, in the wake of the removal of the petrol subsidy, claimed that our country owed it N2.8 trillion in payment areas for subsidising the pump price of petrol, an activity that it had been carrying out on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria, FGN.

What the narrative above indicates is that our crude oil revenue was not even enough to support the cost of subsidising petrol pump prices because the FGN was still owing NNPCL N2.8 trillion.
That explains why the FGN has been borrowing to pay civil servants emoluments and meet other governmental responsibilities.

In the light of the grim fiscal and socioeconomic situations described above, even as President Tinubu’s team that I have,for lack of a better nomenclature, branded Tinubunomics evangelists, are able to come up with strategies to ease the burden of galloping inflation that has been taking a heavy toll on the masses,the initiatives would need to be cash-backed.
Whence cometh the funds, Nigerians would wonder?

Definitely not the paltry $800m that the world bank offered Nigeria to help cushion the harsh effect of subsidy removal just before ex-president Buhari’s tenure ended, nor is it the new $500m that has been offered to President Tinubu’s new regime by the world bank, perhaps as a demonstration of its support for the far-reaching reforms so far introduced.

Clearly, both world bank funds to be availed of or already disbursed to Nigeria, even when combined, are inadequate as they would not even scratch the surface of our country’s needs.
So an IMF loan beckons.

Although President Tinubu appears to have answered the question, whence cometh the funds? clearly,N500 billion can only be a stop-gap measure in light of the urgency required to do something significant to ease the pain on the masses sooner rather than later.

And the request for approval from HoRs to apply for the N500 billion is all the more critical because it is very much needed to bridge the gap as the process of obtaining the IMF loan, in the event that the government decides to toe that path, can be relatively long.

Strikingly, Nigeria had attempted to take the IMF loan under the watch of former military president, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, who incidentally had toppled then-head of state, Gen. Mohammadu Buhari.

And the country was under a similar yoke because the Nigerian economy was at that time literally comatose following about two years of draconian policies of then head of state Gen. Buhari, wherein essential commodities such as rice, sugar, milk, etc. were so scarce that an agency known as Nigerian National Supply Company Ltd., NNSL, was set up to purchase and ration the items to Nigerians under a very stressful atmosphere reminiscent of the situation in iron-clad countries like the Republic of North Korea.

In my column of June 27, titled "A Comparative Analysis Of Tinubunomics Reforms And I.M.F. Conditionalities For Loan", and also widely published in traditional and online media platforms, I reflected on issues pertaining to our country’s contemplation of taking the IMF loan nearly forty (40) years ago, before it settled for a home-grown Structural Adjustments Programme, SAP, which it mismanaged with disastrous consequences.

To put things in perspective, below is a snippet: "As it may be recalled, Nigeria had also suffered the dilemma of financial insolvency in the mid-1980s (during the regime of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, IBB (1985–1993)), similar to the situation currently being faced by Ghana, which just took the IMF loan.

"That was what prompted the country to seek a bailout loan from the LMF, and some reforms were demanded as preconditions for granting the loan.

"Some of the conditionalities were very stringent, and they were such that the nation baulked at taking the loan facility.

"New York Times reporter Edward A. Gargan, in his article titled "NNigerian Leader Wary On I.M.F. Loan," published on October 8, 1985, which is nearly 38 years ago, stated the following about Nigeria and the I.M.F. loan:
"As a condition for granting the loan,the I.M.F. has called for Nigeria to devalue its currency, the naira, and end the practise of subsidising petroleum products for consumers. At the official rate of exchange, the naira is equivalent to $1.08, but on the black market here in Lagos, money changers are selling nairas for as much as four to the dollar.

"Smuggling Is Rampant.
The tremendous disparity between the official and unofficial exchange rates has led to rampant smuggling and has sharply curtailed Nigeria’s ability to sell manufactured goods abroad", he noted.
"Moreover, gasoline in Nigeria remains the cheapest in Africa—less than $1 a gallon at the official rate and about 25 cents a gallon at black market rates. Today, General Babangida refused to say whether oil subsidies would be lifted and virtually ruled out any sharp devaluation of the nation’s currency,", the reporter concluded.

"Is it not stunning that the damning socioeconomic atmosphere currently prevailing in Nigeria is exactly the situation that existed nearly four decades ago and for which the L.M.F. demanded that Nigerian leaders make some tough decisions to reform as a critical precondition for granting her a bailout loan under the watch of military president Gen. Brahim Babangida?", I had observed.

The reality is that it is not only gut wrenching that as a nation, we have remained on the same path of ‘Debt Avenue’ and sought a bailout nearly forty (40) years after lBB considered it following the ouster of then Gen. Mohammadu Buhari as head of state via a palace coup de tat in 1985, but it is equally damning and pathetic that today,an IMF rescue may be contemplated once again after the reign of President Buhari, who was elected president in 2015, after which he succeeded in bringing the Nigerian economy to its knees and thus earned the unenviable reputation of being the world’s poverty capital, which he handed over to President Tinubu on 29 May.

Although this feeling is without concrete evidence, one gets the sense that it may be a precursor to seeking the LMF loan that President Tinubu has been rolling out revolutionising economic reform policies tagged Tinubunomics that are unshackling our country and making it investment friendly.

By the way, there is currently an equivalent of Tinubunomics in the United States of America, known as Bidenomics, which, as the name indicates, encapsulates President Joe Biden’s economic policies, including the ground-breaking infrastructure act that has reflated the economy and boosted employment amongst others through the ongoing massive infrastructure refurbishment in the USA.

As evidence, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, in the world’s largest and wealthiest economy has dropped from 9.1 points to 3 from June last year to June this year.
And the drop in inflation by six (6) points between 2022 and June 2023 is owed to the Infrastructure Investments Act, or Jobs Act, which saw a humongous sum of $1.2 trillion being appropriated for investment in infrastructure.

The monumental investment dubbed a once-in-a-generation stake in infrastructure is encapsulated in Bidenomics, driven by the Build Back Better Agenda of President Biden.

And if Bidenomics has worked in the USA, as is currently evident,there is every good reason to believe that its equivalent in Nigeria, Tinubunomics, would equally have a positive outcome here if diligently pursued.

In Nigeria, Tinubunomics policies range from the repeal of burdensome and archaic economic policies that had shackled our country, thus putting long-suffering Nigerians literarily in economic manacles via the erstwhile funds-guzzling petrol subsidy, the operation of multiple naira exchange rates with the dollar, which is another type of subsidy, and the subsidy on electricity production and distribution arising from the fact that the activity was on the Exclusive List, meaning that hitherto only the federal government could provide electricity service.

It is a situation that the signing into law of the Electricity Act 2023 by President Tinubu has changed for the better, basically because the policy has thrown open the investment space in electricity services to the private sector for participation.

Apart from the earlier referenced Electricity Act 2023 and the Freedom of Data Act that would unleash the potentials of information technology, which has been elevated to the level of Artificial Intelligence and is being leveraged in advanced societies to enhance all spheres of life, there is also the passage of four (4) Executive Orders that have reversed some anti-business laws such as new tariffs on vehicles imported into Nigeria and 5% Value Added Tax and VAT on telecoms services, as well as similar sundry taxes that were stifling businesses.

It may be recalled that the aforementioned laws that are unfriendly to business were hastily passed by the immediate past regime before its exit on May 29.

The four (4) executive orders that are business-friendly appear to be in response to the organised private sector, which has cried out to President Tinubu for forbearance.

And as if to cap the myriad of policy decisions that have so far been taken by President Tinubu aimed at pulling our country out of the abyss of debt and the hole of despondency into which more citizens of our country, numbering up to 130 million of the 200 million, have descended, the president has also set up a tax advisory council with PwC team lead for West Africa, Taiwo Oyedele, as chairman.

The mandate of the council, comprised of other eminent tax experts, is to seek ways and means of optimally harnessing in a win-win manner the untapped tax resources in our country that are presently not captured by the existing system.

That is with a view to enabling the administration to carry out the onerous task of pulling our country out of the economic doldrums in which it is currently wallowing as a consequence of eight (8) years of monumental sociopolitical and economic mismanagement by the predecessor government.

It is undeniable that it is a consequence of the unmitigated disastrous socioeconomic and political leadership of our country by the outgoing regime that the Nigerian masses are being characterised as multidimensionally poor people.

That is even as an additional four million, one hundred thousand (4.1 million) are adjudged by the World Bank as having joined the ranks of the indigent since the withdrawal of subsidies on petrol and the naira exchange rate unification on May 29, when President Tinubu mounted the throne of leadership in Aso Rock Villa.

With the threat of an additional seven million (7m) joining the inglorious poverty club, which is a figure that the world bank is projecting would likely be the aftermath of the removal of subsidies on petrol and naira by this year's end, if palliatives are not rolled out to cushion the harsh effects of the policies aimed at preventing our country from falling into a looming debt trap, it is not an understatement to emphasise that there is an urgent need to make haste in providing buffers.

That is probably what justifies and is driving President Tinubu’s request for N500 billion from the supplementary appropriation act 2022 currently before HoRs, but which the Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC, is kicking against because it believes it is inadequate to support the 300% salary increase that it is demanding.

After breaking the somewhat forty-year jinx of operating an economy that has been bearing the debilitating burden of petrol and naira subsidies, which the multilateral and international financial institutions—the World Bank, IMF, and even investment bank JP Morgan—as well as other multilateral financial organisations have been demanding that Nigeria remove to free up the economy via major policy reforms as far back as President Buhari’s first coming as a military dictator (1984–85), it would not surprise me if the aforementioned global financial agencies are already wooing Nigeria with loan offers.

That would be more so because the ongoing reforms have been voluntary as opposed to imposed.

As such, despite Nigeria’s estimated N50 trillion external loan exposure, she may be able to obtain international loans on favourable terms simply because Nigeria, with its humongous potential (population in excess of 200 million and the largest in Africa), significant and reasonable purchasing power, and a virile middle class comprising 60% youth demographics that are very creative, is currently the toast of investors globe-wide.

But given the horrendous and frightening size of our current debt profile, a significant, if not broad, spectrum of Nigerians may kick against the idea of obtaining more loans.
But to dig the economy out of the hole in which it is currently stuck would require more funds.

And being that the debt servicing that watchers of our economy—the World Bank, etc.—had warned about a year ago would outstrip our income if adequate care was not taken to cut down on our expenditure costs and boost revenue inflow by plugging crude oil leakages to oil thieves (an admonition that was unheeded and has become a reality today), the future of our country is currently in jeopardy.

According to statistics from the National Bureau for Statistics (NBS), the total exports from Nigeria for 2022 rose by 41.72 percent from N18.91 trillion in 2021 to N26.79 trillion in 2022. But imports rose by 22.77 percent, from N20.84 trillion in 2021 to N25.59 trillion in 2022.

When the value of Nigeria’s total exports last year, which was N26.79 trillion, is matched up, it is basically equal to the import value of N25.59 trillion in the same 2022.
That simply implies that our country’s exports and imports almost matched each other last year.

If the debt servicing obligation of Nigeria is added, which the Debt Management Office (DMO puts at N3.36 trillion in 2023, where would this administration find the money to undertake the under-listed huge investments that would facilitate a more people-friendly transition from petrol subsidy removal and naira exchange rate unification?

Although the administration has yet to disclose its plans, I would like to hazard a guess that the immediate needs for investment to soften the effects of the policy reforms would likely be: procurement of mass transit buses powered by Compressed Natural gas (CNG, provision of a one hundred percent (100%) salary increase to public servants; offering some tax breaks to businesses to enable the extension of a similar 100% salary raise for workers in that sector; and availing loans to indigent tertiary institution students as enunciated in the Students Loan Act.

The above-listed proposals are some of the lofty measures that are likely to be
undertaken by the administration as a panacea to the inclement fallout of the socioeconomic reforms so far rolled out by President Tinubu.
The introduction of the palliatives would enable the reforms to come into fruition or materialise without too much collateral damage to the masses.

As earlier observed, it is as if there was a synergy of thoughts and a meeting of minds of sorts that the government has put forward the request to HoRs for its approval for the executive branch to apply N500 billion in the 2022 supplementary appropriation act to mitigate the harsh effect of its reforms, which is currently receiving the attention of the legislators.

The NLC's dissatisfaction with the sum of N500 billion requested, which it deems to be too little, suggests to me that it may be a bridging gap as more funds,probably from the I.M.F., may be sourced to tide the country through the rough patch that it is currently passing through.

Whatever the case may be,the undeniable reality is that this country right now looks like a firm or business corporation that has just been taken over by a very bad manager and needs working capital to put it back on an even keel.

In my reckoning,to make Nigeria work again,it needs working capital,and as financial experts very well know,borrowing from the money or capital markets is obviously more expensive than sourcing funds from a multilateral agency like the IMF, World Bank, etc.

The snag may be that our country’s previous experience with LMF might have left an unsavoury taste in the mouths of Nigerians. But there is a difference between 1986 and 2023, which is that the IMF would not be imposing any harsh conditionalities on Nigeria because the country has already voluntarily swallowed the bitter pills.

So, should President Tinubu decide to pursue the option of an IMF loan, Nigerians would acquiesce with it as long as they were assured by Tinubunomics champions that the funds would be invested in production (infrastructure,factories , employment creation activities, etc.) as opposed to consumption items (salary payments,perks of office, and lavishness by public office holders), which has been the pattern in the past eight (8) years.

And the demand by the NLC for more funds to be appropriated for palliative care underscores the belief that a LMF loan may be the most viable option at this point in time.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in Delta State government, sent this piece from Los Angeles, California, USA.