When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was sworn in on six weeks ago, the general mood was sombre because he had only won 37% of the vote, which means that Nigerians who wanted him to take over from Buhari were greatly outnumbered by Nigerians who didn’t.

And even the 37% figure was being described as inflated by his opponents and some election observers and journalists. Allegations of rigging and other forms of skulduggery were rife.

Still, despite his blatantly mendacious insistence that “since the advent of the Fourth Republic, Nigeria has not held an election of better quality,” his inauguration speech was impressive overall.

There was an empathetic acknowledgement that “we have endured hardships that would have made other societies crumble”.

There were stirring, poetic words: We have, he said, arrived at “this sublime moment.” We need, he declared, to “march beyond the dimness of night into the open day of renewed national hope.”

There was a patriotic focus on transforming Nigeria into a united and truly great African giant that fulfils its unmet potential, respects religious, regional and ethnic diversity and is the “strongest champion of the black race”.

There was the pious reference to faith in “God Almighty”.

Desperately needed economic reforms – fuel subsidy removal, harmonization of exchange rates, et cetera – were promised.

He assured his domestic and international audiences that he would reform the security architecture. He extended an olive branch to political rivals who are challenging his victory in court, defended their right to seek legal redress and described their support bases as “important constituencies…that wisdom dare not ignore.”

He announced that he would “discourage” corruption and beef up the efficiency of anti-corruption agencies. He humbly pledged to govern rather than rule, dialogue rather than dictate and to “never put down a single person for holding views contrary to our own.”

But was Tinubu being sincere?

This is a man who has serious reputational problems, some totally deserved in my opinion. And I am wondering whether this particular leopard can change its spots and pleasantly surprise his critics.

If he is really ready to effectively launder his image and become known as a genuine icon of integrity, he will have to ruthlessly control cronies, relatives and powerful vested interests who may be more interested in aggressive self-enrichment than in helping him rescue a country that is on its knees in so many different ways.

So far, he is emitting contradictory signals.

On the one hand, he has gone after Godwin Emefiele, the ex-Governor of the Central Bank who is currently in custody.

On the other hand, some of his closest cronies – Nyesom Wike of Rivers and Ganduje of Kano, for example – have been investigated by the EFCC. But Tinubu’s body language suggests that he doesn’t care about such inconvenient details and intends to give them senior jobs.

Furthermore, Tinubu pushed hard to instal Godswill Akpabio, who also has EFCC issues, as Senate President.

Ethical concerns aside, there are doubts about whether Tinubu can significantly add value to Nigeria on a practical level.

Tinubu and his fans insist that he is a visionary who massively upgraded Lagos during his two-term governorship and transformed it “from a jungle to a megacity”. But recollections vary.

“I am tired of hearing that Tinubu made Lagos because the reality is that Lagos made Tinubu,” scoffs Henry Odeinde, a businessman who says that Tinubu exploited his legendary political clout to acquire extensive property holdings and “endless” business benefits.

According to Odeinde: “Tinubu was nothing to write home about! He became governor in 1999 and only started to resurface internal roads on Lagos Island in 2006. This was the only improvement in infrastructure I noticed. As for all this talk about him drastically increasing internally generated revenue, please note that he collected a large percentage of this increase via his consulting firm.”

Tinubu is often – quite rightly – described as a skilled talent spotter who likes to work with competent professionals. And his ministerial list is awaited with bated breath.

The editor of a newspaper who wishes to remain nameless says that Tinubu “puts square pegs in square holes and will be a much better economic manager than Buhari.”

However, Senator Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele who was Tinubu’s deputy during his first gubernatorial term, wound up resigning because, according to her, he doesn’t listen to alternative opinions.

Tinubu also clashed with his second term deputy, Femi Pedro, whose impeachment he eventually engineered, using a State House of Assembly that was firmly under his thumb.

Given that there is a considerable difference between running a six-state geopolitical zone (Tinubu has been the main mover and shaker in the South-Western region for nearly a quarter of a century) and running 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, Tinubu will do well to suppress any self-defeating tyrannical tendencies and take advice from technocrats who understand Federal-level challenges.

Tinubu has craved the presidency for most of his adult life. Even if the ongoing election tribunal eventually sends him packing, he can still make a big mark in a short period of time.

Within days of assuming office, he silenced critics who regard fuel subsidy removal as a great idea (despite the widespread hardship it has inflicted on a nation that was already staggering under the weight of Buhari’s multiple failures).

It has to be said that despite his numerous flaws, leadership seems to come naturally to him…and that quite a few of my contemporaries who rooted for Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in February are now taking the view that Tinubu may not be bad news after all.

But not everyone is impressed.

A young cousin of mine came up with an immensely insightful when I asked him what people of his age (Obidients mostly) are saying about Tinubu:

“Their attitude and mine,” he responded wryly, “is that Tinubu has stolen Obi’s car and is being praised for maintaining it quite well!”

I nearly fell off my chair laughing.

But I guess I won’t be laughing quite so hard if Tinubu does a good job until whenever he leaves the presidential Villa. Watch this space.

In offering my thoughts about a blueprint for tomorrow in Nigeria, I choose to deal with what I call first principles. I will deal locally and globally with what had happened, and is happening. What we all know and need to look at again, and from here hope to project what tomorrow offers. No part of the earth is new except those that are yet to be discovered by human beings.  Powers, Nations and Countries have all existed in various forms and evolved differently.  One first principle that History has taught us, is that Empires have risen and fallen and this will never stop as we are witnesses to some Empires now in decline.

Simultaneously there is a renaissance in some places not the least Africa, and this brings on the significance of this gathering.

Let us look at Nigeria as the subject of tomorrow. A territory of 923,770 square Kilometers of land area, bounded by the ocean and desert, bejeweled with various natural resources and biodiversity with a 200 million human capital. A market to ignore at your peril. In an increasingly plural planet, at a time that diversity and identity have become not only a justice issue but also an economic one, the largest nation of black people in the world triggers more than a passing interest.

At the heart of the human capital lies a youthful bulk, aged between 18 – 35 who are nowhere near the peak of their powers. A real advantage for tomorrow. As the world searches for a new global legal order acceptable to all, one thing is undeniable, prosperity will be anchored on soft power rather than military might. That is why Nigeria sustains the largest democratic political undertaking on the African continent. It is a powerful statement of freedoms which businesses require to thrive. 

On the back of that and in recent years she has committed to an aggressive investment on her public infrastructure to support enterprise and her youthful and  growing population. Expansion and upgrade of five major international airports in Lagos, Port Harcourt,  Enugu, Kano, Abuja which, are strategic human and enterprise hubs, are an important statement of readiness for tomorrow. She is expanding her gas supply infrastructure and I point to the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano project stretching across 614km at $3.2 billion.

Broadband infrastructure deployment is being deployed without fuss. On the Abuja-Makurdi 220km highway and the Kano-Maiduguri 560km the ducts to lay fibre optic cable are being constructed and have been completed respectively. A new refinery capable of processing 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day has come on stream and about to commence production, inclusive of a petrochemical plant and fertilizer plant. This is complemented by a new sea port in Lekki area of Lagos. These two projects alone account for $22 billion of local and international investment.

Rail transport assets are also being developed and deployed for use. Road transport assets are being constructed in peace time at a rate only comparable to the post civil war experience of the early 1970s. I have been directly involved in this effort and can provide some details. At the last count in my handover notes in May of 2023, we had over 13,117.09km of roads under construction and rehabilitation. This is equivalent to driving from Abuja to Johannesburg and back and at handover over 9,000 km had been executed, and the number grows daily as work continues Kilometre after Kilometre.

These roads link our air and sea ports, connect to our petroleum depots and strategic agricultural regions in addition to linking us to Neighbouring countries in the north, east, west and south of our international borders. They are not roads of desire, but instead strategic economic roads for internal and international trade on the back of our signatory to the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement.

The last impact surveys we conducted in 2021 showed that travel time on the completed portions of these roads reduced by up to 50 per cent and contiguous real estate values rose by up to 30 per cent. These are not just indices of efficiency and competitiveness for businesses, they are a broad response to multi-dimensional poverty.  For example it would now take a few minutes to drive across the River Niger instead of a whole  day, while a drive from the east of Nigeria to Abuja across the River Benue reduces travel time by four hours on the new Loko-Oweto Bridge. 

As at May of 2023 a total of N3.929 trillion has been committed by 8 (Eight) companies to build 85 Roads covering 7,830.71Km under the Tax Credit Policy. This is money not yet spent but committed. In just 8 (Eight) years she has doubled her infrastructure to GDP from 20% to 40% and is not relenting. The significance for businesses that support construction such as quarry, lubricants, steel reinforcement, and cement is a matter of excitement for investors who play in these sectors. 

Another event that went unnoticed is the number of Nigerians who gained access to electricity. That number was 96.9 million people in 2015 and rose to 112.63 million in 2019. I know that reliability of supply is still an issue and for some this may be a matter to be cynical about. For an investor looking at tomorrow, an increase of 16.03 million consumers with access to electricity and the possibility to increase that market share is what tomorrow is about. This is the size of the population of many countries put together within the African continent and in other continents. But it represents only part of our journey and the market demand for electric power.

Undeniably on a continent of over One billion people the best place also is the biggest in economic output measured by GDP, and the place with the most diverse, most talented and most zestful human capital. 

When the conversation is about markets, size matters and Nigeria has it. The number of Nigerian created unicorns, chart bursting music and movies bear testimony to the productive capacity that resides in Nigeria. Remember what l said about soft power.

On the back of the infrastructure hardware in transport, energy and digital areas are legislative and policy initiatives that would herald a new dawn tomorrow. While climate change poses security challenges on her desert boundaries and drives migration towards the coastal areas from outside and within the borders, due to water shortage and flooding in others, Nigeria is convinced about the science of climate change and is a signatory to COP 23 and the commitment to net zero.

In this regard Nigeria sees climate actions as a viable opportunity to respond to these challenges. Nigeria is thus the first country in Africa to develop and implement a comprehensive Energy Transition Plan (ETP) seeking to achieve net zero by 2060 and universal access to energy by 2030 (7 years from now). This Plan was launched in Glasgow in 2021. This is a pathway to rapid industrialisation tomorrow. There is also the recently enunciated policy on Blockchain making Nigeria the lead African country with respect to Blockchain policy. 

According to a Baker Mckenzie report, Nigeria “reportedly has the world’s third largest bitcoin holdings as a percentage of gross domestic product”. The policy approved on 3rd May of 2023 by the Federal Executive Council at the instance of the Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy has seven parts aimed at creating a blockchain powered economy that supports secure transactions, data sharing and value exchange between people, businesses and Government. 

In furtherance of implementation, a training programme for capacity development has been funded for 20,000 young Nigerians and at least 5,000 have enrolled in the programme. The combination of the hardware of infrastructure and policy and law, only sets the stage for the most important component, the human capital.

My focus on this aspect is the largest batch of that asset. The youthful ones – First I invite our attention to their mindset. What I see is an increasing projection of their originality. A mindset to assert their Nigerianness, from Dress and fashion; to music and culture, and if you have followed the debate about jollof rice, you will understand their need to project and protect their cuisine.

They have branded their country in their own way. They don’t call her Nigeria. They call her NAIJA. They are pushing and propelling that brand at the centre stage of major Global events. From the World Cup in Qatar, to the King’s coronation in England, the Champions League football final and most recently the Juneteenth Memorial celebration of the end of Slavery before a Global audience. 

Everywhere you turn, NAIJA is there. These are the type of citizens who do their duty as envisaged under Section 24 of the constitution to “…enhance the power, prestige and good name of Nigeria.” When a new global legal order is to be agreed upon, these young people will not only be in the room, they will be at the table because they represent diversity and they are from the largest nation of black people in the whole world. 

Are there challenges? Of course there are. What is the value of a life lived without challenges ? How can we celebrate achievement without adversity? I acknowledge the non-partisan nature of this meeting and I respect it. However, when we are confronted with challenges, we cannot avoid an assessment of the role of leadership.

Leadership is undeniably a critical factor. Nigeria has just elected a new president. I am sure he will reveal himself to those who do not yet know enough of him by the leadership he will offer. But if Morning shows the day, some of the decisions taken so far especially on the economic front are already impacting the market and exciting investors. 

Let me remind us that he came to power by forging a merger of political parties in 2013 with President Buhari. That is the first and only successful merger of political  parties in Nigeria for a long time. That party unseated an incumbent President, a rarity in these parts. Everything the then opposition said was impossible, Tinubu and his party proved them wrong. These are important leadership traits that impact business and investment. The merger indicates his ability to forge partnerships, waiting for eight years for his partner to run his term before seeking office shows that he is a faithful partner and can sustain policy. 

The reforms he is initiating are not a fleeting fancy, he is here for the long game as permitted by Law. An example is the Judicial reforms led at sub-national level in Lagos which have gained national acceptance.

All told Ladies and Gentlemen, the stars have aligned for Nigeria. A youthful and skilled manpower is projecting soft power globally. The largest democracy on the African Continent has just produced a political leadership whose record shows a capacity to thrive against the odds. It would be a very hard search to find a leader who won an election against such odds. That kind of resilience and resolve must stand the country in very good stead as she confronts tomorrow with a leader who does not surrender. 

Who can bet against Nigeria? I would not. 

Thank you. .

Being the Keynote speech delivered by a former Minister of Works and House and ex-Governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Raj Fashola, at the 2023 Standard Chartered Treasury Leadership Forum, titled: “The blueprint for tomorrow,” on July 12 in Lagos.

On Monday, former Governors Abdullahi Ganduje, Mohammed Badaru, and Abubakar Bagudu were the butt of social media jokes.

These men superintended Kano, Jigawa, and Kebbi states until 43 days ago. Yet they are not considering taking some rest from the demands of eight straight years of gubernatorial responsibility. 

On the contrary, the three men, one of whom is in his 70s, have become constant features in the meet-and-greet party of President Bola Tinubu. They were at the Nnamdi Azikwe International Airport, Abuja, when Tinubu departed for the 63rd ordinary session of the authority of heads of state and government of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in Guinea-Bissau, on July 7. On his return the day after, the three former governors were again in line to welcome the president.

Reactions to the easy availability of the gentlemen aren’t just about the need for them to rest after being two-term governors; it is also because their motive for swarming around the president like bees is suspect. Nigerians are upset because they can see through Ganduje and his brothers. The game has become so banal, everyone now knows the tricks.

Six weeks into Tinubu’s presidency, everyone is waiting to see the list of those who will work with the president on his promise to renew the hope of Nigerians. These three men no doubt contributed to Tinubu’s emergence as president, and as it is with politicians, they think it is payback time. To retain the president’s top-of-mind awareness, they must flock around him like sheep seeking pasture.

But even though we do not dispute their right to seek patronage, they could be more dignified in their bid for recognition.  Rather than parade themselves as some desperate executive errand boys, they could emulate someone like their counterpart, Nasir el-Rufai. 

The former governor of Kaduna state demonstrates better public consciousness and social understanding by maintaining a respectable distance, probably pulling the strings behind the curtains. This is what smart political actors in the immediate past dispensation, who desire another shot, should be doing. It is the only way to show respect for the sensibilities of Nigerians and allow society and the president to breathe.

However, does Nigeria need the trio as ministers in the current political dispensation? What exactly do they bring to the table, how much credit did they do to their capacity in the years that they piloted the affairs of their states?

Despite his doctorate in public administration and being in Kano’s public life for the past 16 years, Ganduje left an unbelievable legacy of bitterness and rivalry, over which the 74-year-old man should cover his face rather than hustling for positions. That is not to speak about current investigations into his alleged involvement in a bribery scandal over which a video went viral in 2018.

Bagudu is associated with stolen public funds and the alleged laundering of multi-billion dollars on behalf of the former Head of State, the late Gen. Sani Abacha. In 2022, the former governor was reported to have reached an out-of-court agreement with the American government over $140 million related to the Abacha heist. These people, who can’t claim to have justified their previous remits are now shamelessly scrambling for positions in the Tinubu administration. Even if they were not answering to criminal allegations, the likes of these men, one of whom is a grandfather, should be tendering to family and savouring life out of power. Let fresh people hungry to impact serve Nigerians.

But this is the tragedy of political office in Nigeria: most political actors conduct themselves in ways that suggest they cannot function in other areas of social life or contribute to national development without holding the reins of power. 

Politics and public office have become thriving merchandise where actors acquire power and wealth, with which they lord it over the people. So, rather than being an avenue to serve the people, politicians take office and position themselves to be served by Nigerians for the rest of their lives. 

They graduate from one office to the other and install a lackey in the office they are vacating with the hopes of holding the levers and exploiting the resources of both offices. This is why politicians would move into the Senate after eight years of governorship. If they fail in that bid, they fight tooth and nail to become ministers, ambassadors, or anything that places them on the payroll of Nigeria and gives them access to public resources.

This is why Aminu Tambuwal, former speaker of the house of representatives and effectively Nigeria’s number one man between 2011 and 2015, went on to become governor of Sokoto state and is now a senator of the Federal Republic after eight years on the gubernatorial saddle. Unlike in other places where politicians see themselves as servants of the people and their election as the people’s benevolence, here, politicians think they do us a favour by going into public office. We are the servants, they are rulers, and they can fill their pockets and satisfy their primordial interests at our expense. A newspaper report on Wednesday estimated that 13 sitting senator who were once governors would earn pensions and benefits of over N5.6b! People take public office to secure themselves and their families without sparing a thought for the people.

If power were held for utilitarian purposes, many politicians would apply the brakes and reflect on how well they have served the country. They would write a memoir, review their romance with power, and see what they would have done differently, allowing aspiring leaders to do things better.

If political officeholders and people of influence took time to document their experiences and act as agents of change while acknowledging their errors, the acrobatic dances on the wings of corruption would have been tamed. The country would also continue to witness instalmental but sustainable development. Rather than that, Nigerian leaders follow the blind and narrow paths of self-elevation and prebendalism, which sets the country back. 

For past office holders, a moment like this is the only period for a reflective understanding of human behaviour where all the hypocrisies that go with power evaporate and trusted political associates take on new curves in their loyalty and political dispositions. This is the time for public-spirited politicians to understand the psychology of our politics and build the capacity of younger ones for better performance. But Nigerian politicians want to exploit the present resources and build pipelines to suck the future out of the country. They want Nigeria to continue under their direction and that of their children. This eternal rat race for relevance and political prostitution with power, wealth, and fame that attends it is the primary reason for the lack of ideas and the legacy of failures in our public service.

While pondering this, I recall Netflix’s recent release of the eponymous documentary on Arnold Schwarzenegger, the American actor who was Governor of California between 2003 and 2011. The 77-year-old, who returned to acting after his tenure, reflected on his life, his mistakes, his political mission, and the impact he made. We also have the likes of former Governor Donald Duke, who left office in Cross River State at 45 and has remained a shining example of a politician who is more interested in national development than just acquiring power. Nigeria needs freedom from the men of yesterday who are desperate about their roles in the country’s future. President Tinubu should help us accomplish this.

Adedokun can be reached via Twitter@niranadedokun

The Office of Adviser does not exist in a parliamentary system. It became part of the Nigerian political process with the adoption of the presidential system. It is fraught with a lot of unanswered and even unanswerable questions. Advisers are the personal staff of their principals. They are not subject to the scrutiny of the party or the legislature. The principal appoints them to advise him/her on the critical programmes of the administration. The appointment of advisers is a critical pointer to the seriousness of any principal. Any principal at whose table the buck stops and bears the burden and responsibility of any decision is well advised to appoint advisers that can add value to his/her performance and political future.

It is for this reason that the rule is relaxed to enable the principal to scout for, screen and appoint advisers that can deliver. Ideally, an Adviser is a professional in his/her field set apart for his neutral technical competence. He may or may not have a loud party affiliation but must believe in the mission and vision of his principal. Partisanship may colour his/her advice negatively or, to put it more bluntly, affect his/her professionalism.

 In fact, for advisers who are licentiates of professional bodies, their poor performance may jeopardize their professional standing and/or licence. The post of Adviser is not for novitiates. It is not a field for trial and error because errors at that level are too expensive both for the principal and for the system. An error in the national public advisory system could be tantamount to mass murder. Unfortunately, policy errors in the public domain are difficult to reverse and, if ever reversible, costly in time, effort and credibility of the administration. Advice must therefore be professionally targeted. Advisers must, therefore, not only be sharp-shooters but also great marksmen. Anything less than that is a policy liability or even a disaster. Nigeria has witnessed a gross abuse of advisers over the years in terms of quality and quantity. First, there is the alibi that there are no set constitutional or statutory qualifications for advisers. The principals therefore unfortunately solely decide the qualifications which have turned out to be, in most cases, a potpourri of sorts inadequate for the governance of human beings.

Normally, advisers constitute an elite corps of professionals at the core of governance. They are to augment, supplement and complement the elected officers whose qualifications may be as low as being ‘educated up to school certificate level’. It is not impossible that some of them may not even be that endowed. Even if the elected principal is a universal genius, he would be so distracted in office that he needs the assistance of less pressured people. It is therefore a disservice to both the principal and the system to appoint family members and friends who cannot add value such posts. It is not an uncommon experience in Nigeria that Principals advise their Advisers. It is an orchestrated redundancy.    

Who are Advisers?

Political Advisers are people appointed by elected public officeholders to guide them to initiate, fine-tune, monitor and/or re-order public policy for the maximum political advantage of the principal and the welfare of the electorate. The political adviser is therefore a political image maker and a vote maximiser. Without saying so, he is a technical expert to apply the mechanics of public policy to add value to social service delivery to the electorate and thus enhance the electoral prospects of the principal. No matter what fields they cover- economy, energy, security, legislative relations, intergovernmental relations, they are all, broadly speaking, political advisers. They must have basic education in the respective fields and be professionals in their own right. For peer recognition, approval and credibility, they must, before appointment, attain a level of professional and social visibility. Their status will also be enhanced if they engage in continuing education within their area of expertise because currency in theory and praxis is critical to the investment of political trust. Readers are leaders because they are knowledgeable in comparative political best practice and success case-studies.

Furthermore, the adviser must not only be proficient in his field of practice but equally able to equip his principal to convince and influence the public. He must be a proficient communicator with ability to transmit the kernel of policy to his principal because the reception of policies is not only based on quality but also on presentation, delivery and timing.

The practice of political advising requires not only continuing education but also a multi-disciplinary exposure. Policies are by nature polygonal and polycyclic. The adviser must therefore be a psychologist, a social historian, a logician, an experimentalist, a behaviorist and a visionary to be competent in the analysis of complex public issues.  

More importantly, the adviser must understand the basics of national politics, regional sensitivities and professional proclivities. Although he is not a politician, he must be able to smell politics from a distance and analyze politics in an apolitical fashion even though policy is ultimately political. The Adviser must be conversant and agree with the project vision which he must align with project scope as well as human and material project targets. It is important to inform or advise advisers that they are not bosses whose words are laws. Their advice may be turned down. The success of an Adviser is a function of the quality, the timeliness and the persuasiveness of the presentation of his advice bearing in mind that it is the Principal that takes the flak and the praise. Official advice may also be turned down in favour of the advice of unofficial and informal advisers who have more political weight. Such unofficial advisers must not be underrated because they are ‘suya’ spot paddies, fellow old boys or business associates. That is reality in the political world.

Methodology of Political Advice

An adviser must be a competent researcher with a good mastery of archival, primary and secondary sources. He must also be able to tease out relevant information through interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, participant and non-participant observations. Any method of getting relevant and useful information must be employed because information is the most critical input of policy. It is also important for the Adviser to obtain information from all strata of relevant stakeholders because the electorate is a composite group with varying and even conflicting needs. The interaction of needs within the electorate generate demands. For example, salary awards for a section of the electorate has a tendency to spike demands in other classes of the electorate. The reality is that the electorate is not monolithic.

The adviser must therefore be aware that the various classes of the electorate   are connected and interconnected. Even if the electorate were monolithic, the solution proffered by a policy creates a new problem either in its details, content, context or application. An Adviser must devise anticipatory positive insulation techniques to avoid or counter a resultant chain of demands and/or complaints arising from any and all policies. No matter how good a policy may be, an Adviser must expect and be alert to its consequences. He must, therefore, be adept in policy consequence management (PCM) because poor or careless consequence management can fracture or even frustrate the best policy. Policy consequence anticipation is part and parcel of policy design architecture. A policy should be simulated ahead of its finalization. The simulation takes place in a social incubation laboratory where, according to Murphy’s  law, whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Failures at the level of simulation afford the policy adviser a golden opportunity to either backtrack/retreat or review the policy itself. Policy simulation is confidential and performed out of public view. In the case of policy failure at that point, there are neither individual nor systemic casualties. Simulation is a policy cost-saving device as well as a technique for minimising public damage. In addition to simulating a policy, the policy adviser can also trouble-shoot in the process of deciding on a policy. Trouble-shooting is an experimental process of thinking outside the box to ascertain what can work as well as what the prospective end-users think. It is an embedded consultative system of sampling people’s opinion. A more explicit method is conducting focus group discussions (FGD) as a form of opinion sampling and the initiation of policy ownership through informal consultation. The two methods of trouble-shooting and focus group discussion are aimed at the saturation of critical constituencies.

A policy must not be abandoned after it has been made. Even abandoned children grow lean. Any policy, must therefore be monitored, nurtured and managed to conclusion. The monitoring and management of policies can start with a test run which is usually a small scale experimentation. The system seeks to discover the strengths and weaknesses of a policy in actual operation. The test run provides a final opportunity to put the policy to test in action before its public launching. It also affords the policy Adviser the opportunity to correct or edit out errors and weaknesses that manifest in the trial operation of the policy. All the above steps are necessary and should be painstakingly taken because a public policy error is very expensive to both the people and the political regime. In fact, it may be very critical to the electoral survival of that regime.

One of the weaknesses of the policy advisory system is the fact that Advisers hardly coordinate their activities or see the need for coordination or cooperation. It is very important that the policies of a regime should be synchronized for effect. Advisers must cooperate to align policies for synergy because the policies of a regime must not work at cross-purposes. Advisers must work together as a team because administrative departmentalization is merely for convenience rather than for functionality. The ultimate target of all policies is unitary i. e. the people. It is in fact advisable that a regular meeting of Advisers be convened for experience sharing and general policy coordination. Advisers must come to the understanding that they serve the same principal.

The advisers of the President and the advisers of the ministers must meet periodically to deliberate on and synchronise the policies of the federal government. The advisers of the Ministries must not only meet when there is a crisis. To all intents and purposes a strike is not just an issue for the Ministry of Labour. It is a cross-cutting. Their meetings should address the inevitable process of policy interaction which they can manage through the process of policy triangulation. This will lead to proper policy integration issuing from the same government. The advisory system in Nigeria at the federal and state levels by the same party lack coordination as they cannot be identified as having the same pedigree. Presently, there is no meeting point for the advisers to the President with the advisers to the various ministers. This lacuna has a tendency to occasion leakage of funds, policy overlaps or duplication and gross under-capacity utilization. These issues call for attention.

Appointment of Advisers

Advisers, when carefully selected, are essential for effective governance. There are however many socio-political constraints in the recruitment of competent Advisers. Some constraints inhere in the personality of the principals while others are systemic, statutory or constitutional. A principal who is not given to standards is likely to opt for mediocrity either by being nepotistic or clannish. Incompetent principals cannot recruit competent Advisers. What determines the quality of recruitment by a principal comes under the minimax rubric, namely that the principal who makes his own level of efficiency and competence the minimum requirement for recruitment of Advisers will recruit excellent people. On the other hand, a principal who makes his own level of efficiency and competence the maximum requirement will invariably recruit mediocre and sycophants. Such a principal will be comfortable with such officers because they meet his mark. In such cases where the criterion of recruitment is not competence, it is illogical to expect competent performance incompetent officers.

The recruitment of Advisers is also affected or even dictated by systemic factors. In a plural society, members feel that their protection, welfare and share of public amenities is a function of their representation in government. This mindset is a product of ethnic mutual distrust that no ethnic unit can be an honest trustee of another ethnic group. The result is that government is divided for the people by the people such that the people think that the interest of each ethnic group can only be protected by members of that group. Sometimes this feeling is so deeply ingrained that it is written into the statute books and even into the constitution. That is the case of Nigeria.  In local parlance, Nigerians want it implemented by demanding government presence in their localities. In Nigeria, therefore, the people perceive the Federal Government as the product of what the relevant invisible mental ethnic slice represents. In this sense, therefore, the Federal Government is local. While the abstract division of government along ethnic lines ostensibly sets out to ensure social equity and determines the location of the individual in the polity, it is responsible for the sub-optimal performance of government. Every appointment is located in the mental construct of the ethnic slice of the federation.  

The above constraints notwithstanding, the principal still has to recruit personnel into these and other positions. As President Tinubu is now poised to recruit personnel into offices, he must carry out the functions to the best to the best of his ability in the best interest of the country and mindful of the fact that he is not immune from blame. The late Timi of Ede, HRH Tijani Oyedokun, Agbonran II summed up Palace 101 for me in one sentence: “The Palace is a refuse dump”. All and sundry, rich and poor, young and old throw, and are entitled to throw, refuse into the palace. That is also a defining right of democracy. What reduces the dumping of refuse is doing what is right rather than what is good. Right and good have their appropriate occasions.

Another antidote and consolation is that: “Abuses do no break bones”. The Principal must therefore not be tempted or driven to the other extreme which my first year Political Science teacher, Prof James O’Connell, summed up in another sentence: “Once a king receives the staff of office, he no longer gets good advice”. Good or bad, everybody praises the king’s actions. Unfortunately, when the King falls, everybody says “We warned him!!” It is power that makes people powerful. Nobody makes way for a former horse owner. The principal must always remember that it is the Adviser that is rich in options, adds value and honestly speaks truth to power, that is the sincere, competent and loyal adviser.

·      Ayoade, an Emeritus Professor of Political Science, writes from Ibadan