One of the expectations of column writing is that it will not just advance the journalistic goals of educating, informing and entertaining the society, but also serve as a watchdog for both the government and the governed. This role of surveillance to check developments that could tear the society apart is, probably, the most important of all the expectations from both professional and occupational journalists, especially in a developing country like Nigeria.

Trouble has a habit of sleeping until rudely stirred. Only those who have never really experienced anarchy or war talk glibly about the deployment of violence to advance any cause. Anyone who has ever truly participated in protest marches in the real tradition of grievance ventilation knows that there is a world of difference between a march for a cause and a march on a city.

If you have ever been in the trenches as some of us have, you won’t have any problem drawing a line: Thus far and not an inch further!

Protests Legitimate

For the avoidance of doubt, protests are legitimate. We all have a right to demonstrate against anything we consider inimical to our wellbeing. It is a fundamental human right; no less. It has been said over and over again that President Tinubu himself was a veteran protester both during military rule and the current 4th Republic. Having enjoyed that fundamental right, he shouldn’t be seen denying others of the same entitlement.

The president’s men say that he believes in allowing people to express themselves as long as that can be done peacefully. In other words, the authorities want the protesters to note the undercurrents attending this intended demonstration which point to the fact that some other agenda — notably regime change — is already being smuggled into the mix by fifth columnists and opposition elements with partisan political agenda.

Speaking when he received the new US ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Richard Mille Jr, President Tinubu acknowledged his past role as a notable protester: ”During the military era, we made our voices heard against dictatorship, and I was part of the group that engaged in peaceful protests without resorting to the destruction of property. As much as we believe that demonstrations are part of democracy, we will never encourage any protests that lead to the destruction of lives and property.”

There is ample evidence on social media that some groups, with violence as their main weapon, are battle ready to cause mayhem under the pretext of the #EndBadGovernance protest. Their online meetings have been freely circulated, perhaps to encourage fence sitters to join in. If their words are to be taken seriously — and there’s no reason why not— they are primed for violence. Many of the instigators are overseas but they have pledged to foot the bill of the proposed insurrection.

Civilian Coup

One of the arrogant rabble-rousers in an online meeting actually boasted that by the time they are through with the insurrection, they would have got rid of the democratic dispensation and installed a ‘clean and politically neutral’ leader in the country — a civilian coup!

Now, no government in the world will sit idly by while a group of disgruntled people plan its forceful exit through the instrumentality of anarchy.

A protest is a far cry from a riot. When a civil protest is infiltrated by faceless war mongers, the protesters themselves are in danger of being caught in the crossfire. Considering that the key conveners of the proposed August days of rage are not known, unlike the situation in ‘normal’ demonstrations where the leaders and their agenda are well advertised, many social media influencers who had earlier signed on, have now withdrawn their participation.

Fears have been expressed that if the protest is allowed to degenerate to the anarchical level of the #ENDSARS campaign in which criminal elements hijacked what had started out as a beautiful celebration of the culture of civil resistance, Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, will be further reduced to a modern jungle of ruins after the billion dollar damages inflicted on the city in the earlier demonstration from which it is yet to fully recover.

Ethnic Baiting

Then there is palpable evidence of ethnic baiting in comments made by those in favour of the protest and those against. As usual in such situations in Nigeria, some groups of people have already been marked down by their political opponents in the event that the handshake goes beyond the elbow. Mark my words, if push turns to shove, we shall be dealing with cases of ethno-religious cleansing in some parts of the country.

I don’t find the announcement of an ‘Oro’ cult festival  intended to ‘cleanse the land’ on exactly the same dates as the planned protests funny at all. When ‘Oro’ eats, there are no leftovers. Remember the case of Alfa Bisiriyu Apalara (1918-1953), a fiery Islamic preacher who clashed with the Oro cult in Lagos in the early 1950s? He suddenly disappeared. To this day, the cleric’s body has never been found, although the authorities used circumstantial evidence to convict and hang the 11 perpetrators of the crime.

Anything that will make society regress to such savage means of silencing opponents should not thrill any rational human being. Unfortunately, we seem to find it all theatrical, even hilarious. But I insist that we must not give room to such developments because they are designed to rend the cord of amity between man and fellow man.

In their bid to find a deeper meaning in their planned protest, some of the identifiable activists supporting the demonstration have declared that it is not just another protest but a revolution! Former presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore is of that persuasion. My dictionary defines ‘revolution’ as, “A forcible overthrow of a government or social order, in favour of a new system.” I am not sure that a democrat will want to take power by force as a preferred alternative to the ballot box.

Those advocating Kenya-style perpetual sit-out protests make the mistake of wrong equivalency. The lizard and the crocodile may both be reptiles but, whereas one is a staff sergeant, the other is an admiral. There are many things to admire and learn from the Kenyan protests just as there were many lessons from the last #ENDSARS protests in Nigeria. But you can’t transplant one into the other. Each clime with its own spirit and vibes and peccadilloes. If I may borrow a line from Afrobeat superstar Asake, “Ogogoro no be Vodka!”

Combustible

There is so much tension caused by economic hardship in Nigeria at the moment that many people are just one inch away from blowing a fuse. If any kind of anarchy is added to the mix, you’re going to have a really combustible situation that could easily degenerate into mini gang warfares or full scale tribal wars.

To douse tension, the president has been consulting widely and massively publicising measures already taken by the government to address the concerns of the youthful protesters. Traditional rulers, religious leaders, political bigwigs and captains of industry have added their voices to appeal to the protesters to cancel the protest so as not to start what they may not be in a position to finish.

‘Revolutionary’ images from other lands, featuring fire-spitting youthful leaders and clips of internally displaced people may look fascinating because they’re from afar. If those images reflect our local circumstances, there may not even be a columnist to write about it. That is why I have taken the liberty to adapt Gil Scott-Heron’s song as a melody and prayer: This revolution shall not be televised.