The nation was only a few steps away from potential chaos and confusion on Tuesday. We had a taste of the gloom that has been staring the nation in the face for a while with Labour flexing its muscles and threatening social and industrial peace. Not without justifiable cause, I must say. What with reckless spending assailing our sensibilities you would think the engine of public spending has gone out of control, or indeed broken down. How can anybody justify the mindless purchase of Sports Utility Vehicles, alias SUVs, one costing N160 million for each of the Federal legislators? This is an Assembly in which my old friend, Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, sits as a Senator. He felt uneasy at first at the thought and raised a feeble protest. He, indeed, apologized for the protest he raised on Channels Television when he got to the floor of the Red Chambers a few days later. How can anybody defend the endless stretch of the Presidential convoy of Bola Tinubu that was witnessed in Lagos—about twice now? I had thought it was President Joe Biden that was in town. I had thought that Joe Biden, menaced by the heat of desperate Mr. Trump that The New York Times has said again is unfit to be President, was here to cool off. The New York Times’ first unflattering testimonial for Mr. Trump was in 2015. As part of the insensitive posture and unthinking of the Administration is the plan to build a N15 billion official residence for the Vice-President.

All of last week, the Labour principally made up of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) led by Joe Ajaero and Festus Osifo’s Trade Union Congress (TUC) was determined to bare its fangs to press home their agitation for a new minimum wage regime. All of last week, they had asked their members to be on standby for last-minute instructions for a showdown. As of Monday, the air was thick with a foreboding of chaos and confusion, and the nation was made to hold its breath. Their unassailable argument was that in the economic circumstances of today, with the cost of living shooting through the roof, the current minimum wage of N30,000 is no longer realistic. At first, Labour themselves shot sky-high pressing for N615,000 per month as minimum wage for a worker. Later the figure came down to N494,000. The Federal Government first offered N48,000; it moved it to N57,000, but Labour described the government’s offer as “unserious.” As is in the nature of negotiations, the Labour’s first salvo at negotiation was a demand of a maximum of N497, 000 and the Federal Government seemingly testing waters came off with an offer of N48,000, later it jerked it up to N54,000. It raised it again slightly to N57,000. Osifo then had to say: “Our N494K demand is not fixated.”

The NLC president, Joe Ajaero attributed the minimum wage of N615, 000 tabled to the current economic situation in the country and he blamed the breakdown of negotiations on the position of the government and the Organized Private Sector. In his words: “despite earnest efforts to reach an equitable agreement, less than reasonable action of the Government and the Organized Private Sector has led to a breakdown in negotiations.” Labour’s “cost of living estimate” shows that a worker would require N270,000 to feed for 30 days and transportation would cost him N110,000. The Director-General of the Federal Budget Office said the current personnel cost for 1.5 million workers is N5trillion. If the government accedes to the Labour demand of N615,000, it would bring the personnel cost of the Federal workers to N11 trillion. The Federal Government has shifted again a little; it will consider N60,000 as the minimum wage. But Labour is insisting that nothing less than N100,000 would be acceptable.

To bring a quick end to the strike, President Bola Tinubu said he was committed to implementing a National Minimum wage that might be higher than N60,000. How much higher it was not spelt out. Even if Tinubu was prepared to agree to a higher offer, the state governors and the private sector are to be carried along. This is because payment of a minimum wage has a nationwide application. It is the least any employer of labour throughout the country is expected to pay his worker. When in the language of Ajaero the strike was relaxed, not suspended or called off, it was agreed that negotiation would continue for a week to arrive at a figure acceptable to all the parties—the two tiers of government and the private sector. The Federal Government team was led by George Akume, an experienced administrator and former Governor of Benue State. With him is the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu.

For the strike to have maximum bite the nation was plunged into darkness as the national grid was shut down, the banks were closed, dockworkers shut the ports, and airport operations were paralyzed. The Railway is traditionally, indeed historically the home of national strikes. It came as no surprise that there were no train services. The existing N30,000 minimum wage was inherited from President Buhari who had also inherited N18,000 as minimum wage from President Jonathan whose Administration sanctioned it in 2011. I recall Buhari’s passionate plea to Labour in 2018 to get workers to return to work. He pleaded with them to show greater understanding, especially in the light of what he described as gargantuan problems his administration inherited. He made a particular reference to infrastructural development his Administration had embarked upon with very lean resources.

He spoke of missed opportunities between and 2015, when, as he was wont to say, the nation had huge resources at its disposal. He said: “There is no part of the country I haven’t been to, having attempted to be President four times. I know the conditions of our roads. The rails were literally killed: there was no power…” despite the humongous amount said to have been spent in the sector. Speaking for him during negotiations to avert the strike, Boss Mustapha, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, told the unions: “The concern is not only for the welfare of the workers but also every other thing should be taken on board…So, it is a balance of the welfare of the workforce with the effect of the new minimum wage and the economy. We yearn to go above basic social protection for Nigerian worker but also tie it to the ability to pay, because many states are even having difficulty meeting the basic minimum wage.” Boss Mustapha said as of the time, 27 states out of 36 are at the moment encountering difficulties paying the then minimum wage of N18,000. It is the same argument in government circles.

In my view, this is the crux of the matter; it is where the problem lies. There are compelling arguments on both sides. How can N30,000 carry anybody in the economic circumstances of today and the cost of living triggered largely by the withdrawal of petroleum subsidy with its ripple effects, and the intractable insecurity ravaging farming zones of the country? On the other hand, a government which owes arrears in the payment of the current one will see paying anything higher as a pipe dream. Unfortunately, government functionaries are not setting the right example and the right tone. There is a display of opulence everywhere. Our governors and even the President live at practically no cost to them. They are fed by the state; their vehicles are maintained and fueled by the state. Their lifestyle is obscene. In other lands, hardly can you tell a senior government official, a minister, or any other ranking public servants from the ordinary citizens. Sometimes, you have the feeling that they are emancipating! Whether it was Obama or George Bush, they looked more battered in office than before they went into the White House. Indeed, Obama became an old man in no time with grey hairs mushrooming all over his head. As I did ask in 2018 on this subject of public spending: In what way had UK Theresa May or Donald Trump changed since they got into office, whether in their manner of dressing or in their physical appearance?

But no sooner do Nigerians get into office than they begin to bloat with their complexion glowing and all potholes on their cheeks filled up. They overdress you would think it is their wedding day. I recall Peter Obi once revealing to us that when he assumed office as governor, he found that a cow was being killed every day for real, imagined, or anticipated visitors of about 50 persons to Government House. He had to stop the wastage. Enterprising newspapers should dig out photographs of our public functionaries before they were elected or appointed barely a year ago and how they look today.

Michelle Obama said to Oprah Winfrey in conversation over her book, Becoming, that President Obama got the bill every month for every dish that the White House kitchen served his family. “They count the number of peanuts and you get the bill at the end of the month. You pay for your guests and the food they eat…You get the bill.” In 2018 I accused President Buhari of being lily-livered for his reluctance to confront the National Assemblymen, who were and still are scandalously the highest-paid in the world. Professor Itse Sagay blew the lid to the whole world that each Nigerian Federal senator earns N29 million a month. The figure following the strike by the Labour Unions this week has been re-issued to circulate in the social media. The figure was never confirmed nor denied by the Senate, nor have they been outraged that both Prof. Sagay and former President Obasanjo “scandalized” them. Although Obasanjo did not give any figure, his language on the subject was unprintable! The only voice on it came from Senator Shehu Sani, the irrepressible activist, who put it at N14 million, exclusive of some allowances. In the United States, a senator is paid $174, 000 (US Dollars) a year, followed by Canada $154,000 (US Dollars) annually; and Germany $119, 500 (US Dollars) yearly. Britain pays an MP (Member of Parliament) $105, 400 (US Dollars) a year. I invite my colleague, Eddie Madunagu to convert the figures into Naira for us to see. Some other mathematician may wish to work it out and throw the Naira equivalent into our faces. I have not bothered to update the figures. These were 2018 payrolls. That year, the then US House Speaker Paul Ryan was sleeping in his office because he could not afford the rent to keep two homes. His family was living outside Washington.

With the opulence and indulgences of our public officials, executive or legislative, how can anyone persuade workers that Nigeria cannot afford N70,000 as minimum wage? It will be interesting to see how the debate will go in the National Assembly when an Executive Bill is prepared and taken there after the Federal Executive Council and the Council of State must have sanctioned what the new minimum wage should be.

Having said that, I hasten to state that the timing of a minimum wage in Nigeria today requires deep reflection. There are fears of inflation rippling through the land afresh should there be a raise in minimum wage heralded by so much noise-making. The unions have no control over inflation, rising prices, and the calculation of the market women and transporters who are keeping their ears to the ground waiting for the outcome of negotiations. There will be rejigging and restructuring in companies to be able to accommodate the new level of human capital costs. Companies will worry about asset replacement costs, taxes, and reserves. All that will in the end lead to price hikes, job erasure, and a bourgeoning labour market growing still, which will in turn have security implications. To curb insecurity, special incentives will have to be worked out for the security agents which may necessitate contemplation of higher taxes! According to reports about 300 companies have shut down and nearly as many are reassessing their continuing operations! In the end, the new minimum wage becomes a vicious circle—going round and round in circles but getting to nowhere in particular! Arguably, perhaps; but it is clear to me that the gains are all illusions. According to the Daily Times issue of November 16, 1979, the salary approved by the Senate for President Shehu Shagari was N50,000 a year, for Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, N30,000a year and for a Senator N17,000 annually. That was 45 years ago. We can all see where we are today. At the end of every struggle, the worker comes out worse. And he goes again in search of another elusive victory by declaring yet another strike. What then is to be done?