On Friday, October 2, the news channels were inundated with the Breaking News of US President Donald Trump and the First Lady of the United States, Melania Trump’s COVID-19 infection. Barely three days earlier the US President taking part in the first Presidential debate between him and the candidate of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden had mockingly talked about Joe Biden’s mask: “the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”  Many members of the Trump camp at the debate, including the First family, did not bother to wear masks. Consistently, President Trump flouted COVID-19 protocols. He attended rallies and events where the same protocols were ignored. Veteran journalist Bob Woodward, in his most recent book, Rage, has disclosed that whereas the President was aware of COVID-19 as far back as February 2020, he made light of it, chose to “play it down”, because he didn’t want to spread panic and fear. More like Mr. Trump wanted to show that he is a macho man, a Superman. He encouraged denialism. He refused to listen to the scientists. At some point, he even took over the job of the scientists and began to announce prescriptions for COVID-19. His usual victim in that regard is the top US physician, Dr. Robert Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the most recent being Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centre for Disease Control. 

From his promotion of Hydroxychloroquine to his dismissal of COVID-19 as a common flu, it is ironic that President Trump is now in “a mortal battle” with COVID-19. He has also put his wife at risk, in the same manner in which he put the lives of over 214, 000 persons who have died from COVID-19 related complications in the United States at risk.  US COVID-19 sero-prevalence is over 7.6 million.  Nine states are witnessing a second wave of the deadly disease, including the state of New York which crawled out of being the US epicentre of the disease, but has now had to impose new restrictions. President Trump’s COVID-19 infection is self-inflicted. He is paying a price for his own carelessness, and has imposed on the country that he leads uncertainty and the possibility of chaos. Trump is an old man of 74. He has underlying medical conditions. Can you imagine the President of the United States dying in an election season, less than a month to a Presidential election? Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 situation in the United States is a threat to US national security. It is a threat to the security of the world! Already, the Speaker of the Parliament in Taiwan, You Si-kun has expressed the view that President Trump must remain alive, and get better, so he can continue to help check-mate the excesses of China. We also want him alive, and we join others in wishing him and the First Lady of the United States, speedy recovery. Mr. Trump’s paternal grandfather, Friedrich Trump, died during the Spanish flu in 1918. We do not wish him the same fate. 

But there are lessons and implications that should be stressed. President Trump is the most powerful man in the world. He is also the most protected American alive today. If he can come down with COVID-19, then the point is proven again that we are all vulnerable in the face of this contagious disease that has no cure, and respects no persons. The question right now is: how many persons in the White House and around the President are infected? The spread of a pandemic within the highest levels of government in the United States is enough to cause panic. President Trump is not the first American President to fall ill in the White House. In 1955, President Dwight Eisenhower had a heart attack. The public was told he had a stomach upset! President John F. Kennedy struggled with chronic back pain and Addison’s disease. 

The natural instinct is to cover up the truth about the President’s health. In July 1893, the then President of the United States, Grover Cleveland disappeared. He had a non-malignant tumour, diagnosed as epithelioma, and was smuggled out to sea for a secret surgery. It was too risky politically to announce any form of weakness in the White House. A newspaperman, E.J. Edwards, got wind of the story and blew the whistle. He was branded a liar, and dismissed as ‘a disgrace to journalism”. It took more than a century before the truth came out. In 1919, President Woodrow Wilson came down with the Spanish Flu.  The public was told the President had a cold.  President Franklin Delano Roosevelt suffered polio. It was carefully managed. It should therefore not be surprising that in 2020, a certain political theatre has been built around President Trump’s COVID-19 infection.  He was admitted into the Walter Reed Military Medical Centre on Friday after two sharp drops in his oxygen level, and confirmation that he had high fever.  By Sunday, the Superman Trump had recovered well enough that he even made an impromptu appearance in the form of a drive-by in the course of which he waved at his fans who had besieged the Medical Centre. 

Dr. James Phillips, one of his physicians has described that political stunt as an “act of insanity”. He says the “irresponsibility is astounding.” Dr. Phillips cannot be more correct. After a pattern, President Trump continues to play politics with COVID-19. He puts the lives of others at risk. He misleads the country and the world. There is a collapse of protocol and standards around him. His handlers short-change the American people by dropping the ball. They have allowed themselves to be brow-beaten by a President who is both a bully and an egoist. They are all so overwhelmed by his personality they would just allow him to get away with anything, even when national security is obviously compromised. By Monday, we were already being told that Mr. Trump will be back in the White House. I don’t envy Sean Conley, the White House Physician. He must be having a hard time. But he and his team owe Americans a duty to tell the truth about the President’s health condition, and to ensure there are no further stunts that make no sense. And if we may ask: is President Trump directing his doctors?  When the President of the United States checks into the Walter Reed National Military Medical Centre, is he an infectious disease patient looking for help, or the Commander-in-Chief of the hospital?

US stock futures contracted following the announcement of President Trump’s infection. Markets in Europe and Asia posted the same response. The Democrats made heavy capital out of it. We were told the Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden had tested negative. In the polls he further jumped ahead of President Trump, with a double-digit lead. In another poll, 65% of Americans reportedly believe that Trump would not have been infected if he had been more careful. The only good news is that deadly as COVID-19 is, it is not actually a death sentence. Trump is not the first Head of State and Head of Government to contract it.  Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Juan Orlando Hernandez (Honduras), Jeanine Anez (Bolivia), Prince Albert II (Monaco); Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), Nikol Pashinyan (Armenia), Alejandro Giammattei (Guatemala), Boris Johnson (United Kingdom) all contracted COVID-19 and survived. Burundi’s former President, Pierre Nkurunziza wasn’t so lucky. But persons older than Mr. Trump despite the established revelation that the elderly are more vulnerable, have also managed to beat the disease: Bill Lapschies, 104, US; Ada Zanusso, 104, Spain; Geneva Wood, 90 years; US; Alma Corsini, 95, Italy; William Kelly, 95, US; Joseph Zhu Baoyu, 98, China, Italica Grondona, 102, Italy… 

As President of the most powerful country in the world, there is little doubt that President Trump and his wife will get the best care possible. Every effort must be made to ensure that he gets that care and he must be restrained from any kind of reckless conduct. There have been conspiracy theories about Mr. Trump’s COVID. I have heard the view that this is all a contrivance to gain sympathy for the November 2020 Presidential election.  I disagree. It will be the height of insanity for any one to play that kind of politics, and to be supported in doing so by the entire American establishment. What may happen is that Mr. Trump will survive COVID-19, and he will exploit that politically to tell every one that he is indeed a Super Man who has beaten COVID and will now also beat the rival he refers to as “sleepy Joe”.  Except that Joe Biden is not sleeping. He wants Americans to vote Trump, a disruptive and divisive President, out of the White House. He is fully awake. And he showed that during the first Presidential debate when he trounced President Trump on all counts: composure, maturity, depth and decorum. Every step must be taken to restore President Trump to full health, so that he can take the sure defeat that awaits him on November 3, 2020, with his full chest, alive and well, on his feet. Another good news, though, is that when it was reported on Sunday that his health had begun to improve and that he would return to the White House on Monday, US Stock futures rose by more than 100 points. Trump Watch has become a market-moving barometer.      

The year 2020 will go down in history as the year of illness and death. But the biggest test that the world has faced in every sphere is the test of character and leadership. Leaders are expected to show example, empathy, strength and support, but this has been difficult for many. There is no leader that has received any prior training in the management of COVID-19. It is an accident of our century, even if we have no idea what the future holds. Nobody is invincible, not even the President of the most powerful country in the world. What we know however is that the countries that have done better managing COVID-19 are the countries whose leaders have shown great discipline and commitment, and by the way, those leaders are mostly women: Mette Frederiksen (Denmark), Tsai Ing-wen (Taiwan), Jacinda Arden (New Zealand), Sanna Marin (Finland) Katrin Jakobsdottir (Iceland), Erna Solberg (Norway), and Angela Merkel (Germany).   The ones who have not done well are mostly men: Donald Trump (United States), his protégé and imitator, “the Trump of the Tropics” - Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India), Viktor Orban (Hungary), Vladimir Putin (Russia), John Magufuli (Tanzania). The women leaders have something in common: empathy and love, and being pro-active and risk averse.  The men also have something in common: they are arrogant, offensive, and divisive. They think they know it all and they have more than often in the course of the crisis and uncertainty that COVID-19 has brought along endangered the lives of the people they lead and their own lives as well. National leaders can make a difference. Mr. Trump’s COVID-19 infection should be a reminder of the importance of responsible leadership and conduct, and the fact that nobody, not even a President, is above the rules. 

The Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu has reportedly directed that all tactical squads of the Nigeria Police should stand down, stand back and stay away from Nigerian streets and desist forthwith from carrying out routine patrols, stop and search duties, traffic checks and mounting of roadblocks. 

The tactical squads include the notorious Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad (FSARS), the Special Tactical Squad, Intelligence Response Team, Anti-Cultism Squad and others – all ad-hoc units of the Nigeria Police created to serve one special purpose or the other. When the Special Anti-Robbery Squad was created in 1992 under the Ibrahim Babangida Administration, it was a child of necessity, with just 15 officers, but it has since then grown into a rogue unit of the Nigeria Police with an incorrigible reputation for brutality, violence, extra-judicial killing and human rights abuses. This has since prompted many Nigerians to call for a complete disbandment of the Squad. Four times in the last four years, one Inspector General of Police after another has tried to reform or restrain the Special Anti-Robbery Squad. Each time directives relating to Standard Operating Procedures, and Rules of Engagement are issued, they have been ignored. 

The so-called tactical squads of the Nigeria Police have not succeeded in checking the crimes of kidnapping and armed robbery, but they have consistently used the uniforms they wear to commit crime, kill and maim and terrorize Nigerians. They have not done much to improve confidence in the Nigeria Police. Nigerians who have been unfortunate to encounter them think that they are extortionists, thieves and thugs.  Many of them don’t even bother to wear uniform, making it difficult to distinguish between them and hoodlums. They set up roadblocks and target young men and ladies. They seize phones and treat every one as a criminal. They harass the public. Whoever tries to insist on his or her right risks instant assassination, or a bullet in the groin. What is the guarantee that the latest directives by the Inspector General of Police will be enforced?       

There is nothing contained in the Inspector General’s statement, issued on his behalf by the Police Spokesperson and amplified by the Presidency, that we have not heard before.  Nigeria is probably the only country in the world where the country’s Number one policeman will issue a policy directive and he will be ignored by his own lieutenants and foot-soldiers and nothing will happen. We have a Police institution it seems, where nobody is actually in charge. The problem is not the lack of vigilance on the part of civil society. Many stakeholders have called for better policing. The catalyst for the latest public outrage is the attack on a young man in Ughelli, Delta State. The IGP has made the usual noise. He must be held down to his words. The starting point should be a thorough investigation of the report of police brutality in Ughelli, and similar cases, and clear indication that the Police under IGP Mohammed Adamu’s watch takes discipline seriously. In addition, every policeman involved in any act of brutality must be sent to a mental health facility. 

I was very skeptical when the current leadership of Organized Labour in Nigeria objected to the decision of the Federal Government to withdraw fuel subsidy and hand over the pump price of petrol to the forces of demand and supply, also known as market forces. Labour, represented by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), and their affiliates and privies in civil society, further threatened that they were opposed to the hike in electricity tariffs. They issued a statement in which they railed against neo-liberal policies, bad timing, and the insensitivity of government. They made heavy weather out of the hardship that COVID-19 has imposed on the people and why any form of additional taxation that could pressurize the people would be utterly unacceptable. Deregulation of the downstream sector is not a new subject in Nigeria. Removal of fuel subsidy is an old subject. Only the dumb and the deaf would deny being aware of the persistent argument that a functioning electricity sector in Nigeria would unleash the country’s energy and potentials, through the values derivable therefrom: saving of costs, creation of jobs, a value-added SME, an improved manufacturing sector and a happier, more productive citizenry. 

In 2012, when the Jonathan administration announced a full deregulation of the downstream sector and removal of fuel subsidy, Organized Labour aligned with opposition politicians and turned the argument on its head. They called out their troops and a thoroughly hypnotized political class, and workers’ community, fostered tension and instability in the system. In 2016, the party that succeeded the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), that is the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its leaders who had lied to Nigerians that there was no fuel subsidy in the country, but unconscionable theft, and that the Jonathan government was wrong, promptly increased fuel prices. They argued that a fuel subsidy regime was not sustainable: the same argument that they opposed in 2012. 

Their conspirators at the time in Organized Labour kept mute. In 2020, with COVID-19 disrupting everything in the world including relationships, with Nigeria suffering a debt and revenue crisis, the collapse of fiscal buffers, and sheer adversity, the Federal Government decided to pull the plugs. It blamed all of these factors and chose to announce a removal of fuel subsidy.  Pump price of fuel, benchmarked to the spot price of crude oil in the international market jumped through the roof. Nigerians groaned. The Federal Government argued that it was not left with any other option.  Everyone expected that Organized Labour would intervene. But Labour didn’t quite do so. Groups in civil society had to picket the Abuja Headquarters of the Nigeria Labour Congress to protest that the NLC should speak up and call the people out on the streets, because life had become harsh and hard for the average Nigerian. 

After being pushed, a combined team of the NLC and TUC finally announced that they would call out Labour on strike and shut down the country. They gave the Federal Government stringent conditions: a complete reversal of the hike in fuel price and electricity tariffs. Or else, Nigeria would be shut down indefinitely beginning from September 28, 2020. I was not impressed. I questioned Labour’s sincerity of purpose. I felt they were just playing a game. The biggest tragedy that has befallen Organized Labour in Nigeria is the thinking since 1999, that the leadership of Labour can be used as a stepping stone to a bigger role in Nigeria. Labour leaders use their positions to negotiate big benefits. They mouth progressive slogans and parrot aggressive rhetoric but it is all a lie. 

Under the military, there was a man called Paschal Bafyau who used the ladder of Labour leadership to gain prominence. Matthew Hassan Kukah in his book - Democracy and Civil Society In Nigeria (Ibadan: Spectrum, 1999) considers him “a sell-out”.  With the return to democracy in 1999, the new Labour hero was Adams Oshiomhole of the Textile Garments and Tailoring Union.  He was a thorn in the flesh of the Obasanjo administration. He could talk, dance and make Communist-style speeches. He captured the public imagination. He would soon make a leap from being Labour leader into partisan politics. He became Governor of Edo State for two terms. He later became Chairman of Nigeria’s ruling party. He also became a Godfather of Nigerian politics. Something tells me every Labour leader after Oshiomhole wants to be like him. They too want to ride SUVs, and enjoy unfettered access to the seat of power. They also want to be Godfathers in Nigerian politics. The danger here is that this transmogrification of Labour Leadership in Nigeria, sighted first with Paschal Bafyau and raised to another level with Oshiomhole, created a new brand of Labour activism that contradicts norm, culture and tradition in the Nigerian Left. This new generation of opportunistic Labour leaders have devalued the heroism of the likes of Labour Leader No 1, Michael Imoudu, Herbert Macaulay, Eskor Toyo, Wahab Goodluck, the Sunmonu brothers and Frank Kokori. A compromised Labour leadership is a disgrace to the Revolution. I find no better exemplification than the current Labour Movement in Nigeria led by Comrade Aliyu Wabba, and the incompetent and hypocritical response to Labour issues in the country.     

In my view, the NLC and the TUC had no business calling out anybody on strike. When they reluctantly did so, they were playing politics and trying to appear concerned about workers’ welfare. This new set of Labour leaders don’t care about the people. They are partisan politicians. Civil society organizations continue to make the mistake that they are dealing with persons of like minds who want to interrogate issues and offer solutions. The truth is that the most conflicted community in Nigeria today is what we broadly describe for want of a better term as the “Nigerian Left”. They are just as worse as the conservatives and fascists; they claim to be defenders of the people’s interests whereas they are just interested in themselves. I am convinced that Nigeria’s Labour leaders knew as far back as 2012, that a subsidy regime either in the downstream or the electricity sector was unsustainable. They knew that getting Nigeria to work in an accountable manner was a useful national priority. They cannot claim ignorance of the inefficiency, leakages and wastages in the system that have, combined, cost Nigeria trillions of Naira. The Jonathan administration tried to address this in 2012. Organized Labour joined partisan politics and became an instrument. When their clients took over in 2015, and brought up the same issue, they kept quiet. When matters reached a head in 2016/2020, they were bound to be deceptive. And this is what they have done. The strike action that they promised on September 28 was never going to happen. It was unnecessary by the way. The so-called agreements that they reached to justify their hypocrisy sound ludicrous. The communique that Nigerians saw in the morning of September 28 is questionable. It may have been designed to help Labour save face, but it merely exposes a Labour leadership that should be a subject of ridicule. 

Three meetings were reportedly held – September 15, 24, 27, 2020. After the second meeting, Labour announced that it would go ahead with the nationwide strike because it had reached a deadlock with government. The NLC and the TUC ended up taking Nigerians for a ride. The Communique that eventually signaled the cancellation of the strike exposes their lack of rigour. The document says the Federal Government negotiators and Labour leaders agreed on a number of issues. Let’s examine a few. On the issue of the hike in electricity tariffs, the communique says the bipartite meeting has decided to set up an ad-hoc technical committee to re-examine electricity tariff reforms. This committee will sit for two weeks effective September 28. During that period, “DISCOs have been directed to suspend the application of the cost-reflective Electricity Tariff adjustments.”  This is a totally meaningless statement and it is surprising that someone like Joe Ajaero, a leader of the National Union of Electricity Employees, who was named as a member of the proposed Technical Committee was not awake enough to point out the problem with this proposal. There are technical questions.

In the first place, the current electricity tariffs are not cost-reflective, they are service-reflective. The new template by the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) creates a service-reflective template, problematic as it is, which ensures that houses, factories and businesses which consume more electricity within an A, B, C, D, range pay more than R1 band designated consumers at the lower end who still pay N4. 00 per unit, thus creating a cross-subsidy regime. The proposed two-week suspension of electricity tariff is also in every sense ambiguous. Is the FG saying the DISCOs should not bill any house, factory or business for two weeks? Is the President now going to ask the Ministry of Finance, the BPE, the NERC and other relevant agencies to re-adjust meters and return to the old tariffs for two weeks?  Did anyone represent the Vice President who oversees Privatization, the NERC, the BPE and the DISCOs at the meetings with Organized Labour? At best, the Federal Government team merely threw the two-week strategy at the unthinking Labour leaders just to buy time. Nothing will happen. 

The Federal Government says it intends to review the NERC Act and involve Labour in the electricity value chain. This is meaningless. The Federal Government, States, and Local Governments own 40% of DISCOs. Government can take part of its 40% to the Stock Exchange, but what will be the value of whatever it expropriates? It is a non-issue. The leaders of Organized Labour could not see through that trick. They were also told the National Labour Advisory Council (NLAC) will be inaugurated before the end of the year. And these greedy guys fell for it! If that Council remains moribund, what can they do? 

The other big issue was the deregulation of the downstream sector. Our Labour Leaders were told that the Federal Government will now fix Nigeria’s four petroleum refineries and that in fact the Port Harcourt refinery will be 50% completed by December 2021. They were told there will be timelines for delivery and even the national leadership of NUPENG and PENGASSAN will be appointed into a Steering Committee and a Validation team. The guys embraced this old, jaded lie as if they were being addressed by King Solomon. How many times have we been told that Nigeria’s refineries will be fixed? At a time, the FG wanted to privatize these same refineries. Labour leaders opposed the initiative. Today, most of them are struggling to have their children employed in a yet uncompleted Dangote Refinery and the modular refineries by Walter Smith, NIPCO and the Edo State Government.  They want the same private sector that they disparage for their own private benefits! 

Labour leaders were further told that the Federal Government will ensure the delivery of one million CNG/LPG Auto Gas conversion kits, storage skids and dispensing units by December 2021 under Nigeria’s Gas Expansion Programme. With the challenges of Corona Virus, this is not possible. To even order the equipment and the accessories, or to build the plant, not less than 18 months will be required.  Who is going to reshape the petrol stations?  Many of the old vehicles on Nigerian roads cannot also be converted. And even if so, who will bear the cost? We are told the Federal Government will provide 133 CNG/LPG transit buses. Nobody manufactures such buses in Nigeria. They will have to be imported. In other words, apart from taking care of the interest of Labour Leaders, the communique that ended the proposed strike of September 28, also very nicely, provided an opportunity for government officials to award contracts! There is also something in there about a 10% housing allocation for Nigerian workers. This is mere wishful thinking. Did anybody talk to Babatunde Fashola, SAN, the Minister of Works and Housing before making this commitment?     

They didn’t need to bother, of course, because both Labour and the Federal Government negotiators knew that they were both playing a game and taking Nigerians for a ride. Organized Labour, having obviously embraced deregulation and market forces, should have raised other questions that could be helpful to Nigerians as follows:  If the Federal Government is eliminating subsidy, what does it intend to do with its savings from the downstream sector and the electricity tariffs?  Can the savings be used to fund education and healthcare under a mutually agreed framework? Instead, Labour leaders were discussing buses and houses!  They could also have asked what the FG intends to do with savings in the electricity sector. Is it possible to use the savings to strengthen Transmission infrastructure? Instead, they were discussing how Labour leaders can become members of the Regulatory Board! 

The Government negotiators deserve our commendation. They have done a good job of preventing a “worthless” national embarrassment in the shape of a Labour strike in the same week that Nigeria celebrates its 60th Independence Anniversary They have also helped to expose the incompetence and hypocrisy of the current Labour leadership in Nigeria. They have also won an ideological war over the subsidy regime. Those Labour leaders who grumble about neo-liberalism have now embraced it. Their lack of rigour, clarity and intellect provides a strong case for an urgent reform of Labour Leadership in Nigeria. Once upon a time, Labour used to be a strong voice in this country. In those days, government controlled everything: Telcom, Banking, Insurance etc, It was quite easy then to blackmail government, and use that as a platform to become a national figure. The times are changing, indeed the times have changed. Labour must reinvent itself or risk the tragedy of becoming irrelevant. 

The pundits who had predicted the outcome and the nature of the Gubernatorial election in Edo State got it all wrong. The Edo 2020 election may well prove to be a turning point in the management of elections in Nigeria, and if not, there are certainly lessons to be learnt from it. It was in every sense a rude awakening for both the actors in the drama and the community of observers who witnessed and monitored the election. Pundits predicted that the election would end up as war, a do –or die affair and that there would be blood-letting in all the state’s three Senatorial Districts. That didn’t happen. An official of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was shot in Etsako Central LGA, another person was macheted and given a cut on the face. In Orhionmwon LGA, a person was killed. In Egor, Ovia South West, Ikpoba-Okha, Oredo LGAs there were reports of skirmishes involving vote buying, and physical assault, but on the whole, the election went on peacefully. There were fears that voters would stay away from the polling stations, out of fear and anxiety, for indeed, before election day, September 19, campaign rhetoric was febrile, hate speech dominated political talk. The people had every reason to be afraid. 

Still about 25.2% of registered voters ventured out to exercise their right of franchise. Out of a total of 2.210,534 million registered voters, about 483, 000 did not pick up their voters’ cards, leaving behind a total of 1.7 million accredited voters. Out of these, barely 537,407 voters took part in the exercise, just enough to cover the event with a toga of legitimacy. There were fears about the readiness of INEC for the election. It was an off cycle election. It was a COVID-19 season election. INEC promised that it was ready and that it would do a good job. The Commission didn’t do too badly after all. Unlike what obtained in the past, ad hoc staff got their allowances. Concerns about the late arrival of election materials and the failure of card readers in some local governments were promptly addressed. INEC had insisted that voters should observe COVID-19 protocols. Many voters wore face masks, quite alright, but INEC was totally incapable of enforcing physical and social distancing. That was a major minus. Nobody should be surprised if there is a sudden spike in COVID 19 cases in Edo state after this election. 

In past elections, across Nigeria, there were complaints about security agencies and their performance. We have witnessed spectacles of policemen, soldiers, and other security agents constituting themselves into a nuisance on election day and after, acting, as it were, on orders from above, in an absolutely partisan manner. In Edo State on September 19, the various security agencies tried their best to be neutral. Nobody reported the usual story of uniformed men snatching ballot boxes and helping the ruling party to thumbprint ballot papers. There were no disturbing reports of police brutality or accidental discharge by soldiers. In Kogi, in November 2019, the Nigeria Police deployed helicopters to intimidate the people. A prominent female politician was set ablaze, and till date the case rests in a cold file that may never be opened. On September 19 in Edo State, Nigerians witnessed a most unusual election. Political actors respected the restriction of movement order. For an election that was presaged by serious tension and anxiety, that was quite an achievement. 

As it turned out, incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki who had crossed from the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to enable him seek a second term in office after he was rejected by powerful forces in the APC, emerged victorious.  He scored 307, 955 votes and won with a margin of 84, 336. His main challenger, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) scored 223, 619 votes. There were 14 political parties in the September 19 election, but it was basically a two-way horse race between the PDP and the APC.  It was as if all the other 12 political parties did not exist. Their votes taken together did not quite amount to 10, 000. One of the gubernatorial candidates was said to have been at home in Lagos on election day. She didn’t even bother to show up in Edo State. Democracy allows all sorts. Nonetheless, history was made. Obaseki is the second Governor in Nigerian history to win election within the space of four years, back to back on two different political platforms: the APC in 2016 and the PDP in 2020. Before him, there was in this regard, Samuel Ortom, Governor of Benue State, who became Governor as an APC  candidate in 2015, and as a PDP candidate in 2019. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the Edo 2020 key challenger, will also be remembered as having lost Gubernatorial elections back to back on two different platforms: PDP in 2016, and APC in 2020. 

Governor Godwin Obaseki has every reason to enjoy the taste of his victory. He was incumbent Governor but he was the underdog in the 2020 election. He was abandoned by the APC, the same party that presented him as flag-bearer in 2016. He was not allowed to take part in the same party’s primaries on the grounds that his academic credentials are fake. The campaign against him was led by Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the same man he served as  economic strategist and who in 2016 sold him to the people of Edo State as the best thing since the invention of fluoride toothpaste. Oshiomhole did a 360-degree volte face and abandoned Obaseki. He turned 360 degrees and embraced Pastor Ize-Iyamu, the same man he condemned in 2016. Obaseki had other enemies: the absentee 14 lawmakers of Edo State -  Oshiomhole’s loyalists who wanted Obaseki out of office. There were other local gladiators, including all the major 2016 Godfathers who now chose to turn against him. Captain Hosa Okunbor, a prominent businessman and a major stakeholder in Edo State who had supported Obaseki in 2016, an otherwise self-effacing Captain Okunbor walked out of the closet and threatened to spend his “last kobo” to remove Obaseki and make Ize-Iyamu Governor.

 In the larger community, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, national leader of the APC sponsored a video on television in which he advised the people of Edo State to reject Obaseki. Asiwaju Tinubu is a powerful political figure and Godfather. In Edo state, he teamed up with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and others to throw Obaseki into the dustbin of history. His loyalists and godsons relocated to Edo State to join the Ize-Iyamu campaign. The national anti-Obaseki team was led by the Governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Ganduje. I still can’t figure out how anyone would appoint such a controversial man as head of a campaign team. Locally, 42 members of the Obaseki administration resigned and abandoned him. Obaseki’s enemies had the Federal machinery behind them. They control the institutions and powers of the state. But today, they all have dust in their eyes. Obaseki, in a noteworthy re-affirmation of his name, won. God wins! What exactly happened?

Beyond the easy resort to a spiritual explanation and how man proposes and God disposes, or the omnipotence of the God factor, I think the result of the September 19, 2020 election in Edo State can be explained in 5 ways. Number one: the intervention of the United States and the United Kingdom on the eve of the election so to say, made a huge difference. The US issued a statement to say that it will impose and had already imposed restrictions on the visas of Nigerian politicians who committed electoral offences in the November 2019 elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states and who have behaved in similar fashion in the forthcoming Edo and Ondo Gubernatorial elections, on September 19 and October 10 respectively. The UK Mission in Nigeria followed suit by announcing similar measures with the addition that assets of Nigerian electoral offenders in the UK will be seized, and such persons will be prosecuted under international law. Thank you, US and UK. I am of the firm belief that the political actors who would otherwise have misbehaved in the Edo Gubernatorial election had to restrain themselves because of your intervention. They don’t want to be restricted. They don’t want to lose their visas. They need access to US and UK hospitals whenever they fall ill. They don’t want to be named and shamed. The Nigerian Government has complained about sovereignty and the right to fair hearing. I don’t know what that is all about. What we saw on September 19 was that there was no useless “order from above”. What we know is that the President of Nigeria was the first person to congratulate the re-elected Governor of Edo State.

Number two: the intervention of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Captain Hosa Okunbor, and the desperate anti-Obaseki campaign launched by the APC ended up working in Obaseki’s  favour Equity may not favour the indolent but it often favours the underdog. The all-powerful APC machinery was so targeted at Obaseki that unwittingly, the APC scored an own goal against itself. Days before the election, the people of Edo state began to ask questions. Adams Oshiomhole as Governor in the same state had campaigned against the influence of Godfathers. He practically drove Chief Anthony Anenih of blessed memory out of town. In 2020, Oshiomhole found himself in fits of self-contradiction as he repudiated everything that he ever stood for. He spoke from every corner of the mouth. He apologized to the people and the chiefs of Edo that he made a mistake in 2016. Did they believe him? I don’t think so. The same man could show up in 2024 and tell fresh stories. Obaseki’s victory is an outright rejection of Oshiomhole’s brand of politics. The people of Edo also rejected Asiwaju Tinubu’s busy-body intervention. This in fact inspired Edo nationalism. The people proclaimed: “Edo no be Lagos”. “Obaseki no be Ambode”. To this extent, the Edo Gubernatorial election was a protest against Godfatherism and an affirmation of Edo nationalism. The Edo people rejected the idea that anyone at all could dictate to them. They stood by whatever mistake anyone thought they made in 2016.  Very instructive. 

Number three: Obaseki was helped further by the PDP machinery. The PDP cashed in on the failure of the APC in Edo state and took maximum advantage of it. The party which claims that Edo is a PDP state, simply grabbed a rejected Governor of the APC and offered him everything that he wanted: a golden offer that accommodated his Deputy. It was a deft political move. The PDP used Obaseki’s defection from the APC to strengthen its base in Edo State. It countered every negative move by the APC by deploying its own aggressive campaigners, led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state. Others on the ground included the PDP members from Edo state who are members of the National Assembly and the local House of Assembly. Together, they deployed high-grade propaganda to shape public perception. The APC rejected Obaseki.  He found a new family. Big loss. 

Number five: Obaseki’s victory can also be linked to the politics of 2023. Unknown to many, some key figures in the APC worked for him. Edo became a battle ground for the Presidential politics of 2023. Those who do not want Oshiomhole and Bola Tinubu to determine the fortunes of the APC and Nigeria in 2023 moved in and checkmated the process. Realpolitik. 

The big take away in all of these is the prompt acknowledgement of Obaseki’s victory by President Muhammadu Buhari and his congratulatory message. Pastor Ize-Iyamu and the Edo branch of the APC have refused to congratulate Obaseki. They should take their cue from the President’s message who in this case, has done something that is quite uncharacteristic. Ize-Iyamu and his supporters claim they want to study the results. They are free to do so. But they should conduct themselves after the fashion of gentlemen and sportsmen. In the past, the APC got controversial rulings from the judiciary in election matters including the notorious case of Imo State where the Supreme Court elected a Governor from the Bench through dubious arithmetic. The judex should be careful. They need to read the press statements by the US and the UK.  They may be privileged but they are also not above international law!. 

President Muhammadu Buahri has advised Obaseki to be magnanimous in victory. He should take that to heart. Before the election, he had threatened to deal with Oshiomhole. He doesn’t need to deal with anyone. Oshiomhole banished the Godfathers that disturbed him from Edo State. He doesn’t need to be served a dose of his own medicine. Even those who promised to spend their last kobo on the September 19 election should be accommodated. Obaseki got a second term by defeating those who tried to play God in the affairs of Edo State. He himself must resist the temptation to act like God. The people of Edo State have reposed their confidence in him by giving him the opportunity of a second term in office. He must not betray their trust. He has promised to Make Edo Great Again. There are unresolved issues and uncompleted projects, and MOUs. He will be better off focusing on that. No man must play God. 

As for Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, let him be reminded that “except the Lord builds the House, they labour in vain that build it…” (Psalm 127: 1). Pick your phone, make that call and congratulate your brother, Godwin.  

It is now more than six months since Nigeria reported its index case of Corona Virus. On March 23, the country closed its airports to all international flights and commercial operations, for a month, in the first instance, with the exception of emergency and essential flights. Previously, in August 2019, the country had shut down its land borders in an attempt to check smuggling. With COVID-19, those borders remained closed. On March 30, 2020, at 11 pm, Nigeria began the first phase of its COVID lockdown - initially for a period of 14 days in Lagos and Ogun States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Gradually, the entire country was locked down. Inter-state movement was restricted. Curfew was imposed. Six months later, where are we? How safe are we as a people and as a country? What future challenges do we still need to worry about? What has been the impact of COVID-19 on our lives?

Today, as at the time of this writing, Nigeria has a total number of 56, 256 confirmed cases, 44, 152 discharged persons and 1, 082 deaths. These figures apparently do not reflect the true situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.  The situation is most likely to be worse, in part because Nigeria continues to struggle with testing and tracing of COVID-19 cases. After an initial problem with testing kits, reagents and the scarcity of basic medical infrastructure, Nigeria finally made its way to a point where, over the months, 35 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory could now boast of isolation and treatment centres. The number of laboratories also gradually increased. Nigeria can now test 15, 000 samples per day and so far over 400, 000 tests have been conducted. As a proportion of the country’s population of 200 million, that is a very small percentage indeed. Countries like Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, Senegal and Algeria have done much better. Part of the problem is that Nigerians are reluctant to embrace the option of voluntary testing even at government-owned centres where the test is free. Ordinarily, a COVID-19 test in Nigeria is about N54, 500. Treatment is expensive and definitely out of the reach of the poor who prefer alternative options: resort to magic, spiritualism or an unproven conviction that the virus only affects the rich and privileged. 

 the prediction that Africa would be worst hit by the pandemic has not come to pass. ... COVID-19, six months later, has exposed our vulnerabilities as a country and as a people. Nigerians have often paid lip service to the need to diversify the country’s economy

These are some of the reasons why the reported data may not be exact. Nor is the data on COVID-19 exact anywhere in the world due to differences in national capacity and tracking systems. In that wise, even the reported global figures of over 29 million cases, 929, 263 deaths, and over 21 million recoveries can be subjected to further questioning. Compared to other parts of the world however, African countries have done relatively well, with perhaps the exception of South Africa which has the highest number of cases, and which by the way, has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country in the continent. Africa doing well, can be explained on only one ground: the prediction that Africa would be worst hit by the pandemic has not come to pass. Ms Melinda Gates had much earlier in the year expressed the concern that African countries could end up like Ecuador with COVID-19 corpses littering the streets, overcrowded hospitals and cemeteries and a public health emergency that would overwhelm the continent. This has not happened. Scientists are therefore left with a puzzle:  Why is the virus more devastating in some parts of the world, and yet so mild elsewhere? Is there a genetic or zoonotic explanation for this? Or could it be that the worst is yet to occur in Africa where health infrastructure is poor, and the leaders listen more to prayer warriors and shamanists and treat scientists with disdain?  

Six months later in Nigeria, life has more or less returned to normal.  By May 4, the Federal Government announced a gradual and phased easing of lockdown measures.  A second phase was soon announced on June 29, for a period of 4 weeks. On July 27, this was further extended. By the end of August, Nigeria was back on its feet. Now, places of religious worship have re-opened. Schools also. Government advisers insist that the country needs to strike a balance between protecting lives and livelihoods and getting the people back to work, given the negative impact of the lockdown and restrictions in virtually every sector of the economy. For the most part, Nigeria simply adopted the COVID-19 guidelines and protocols recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the African Centre for Disease Control. The only problem that I have seen is that as the country re-opens, our people are now behaving as if indeed COVID-19 is gone. Widespread fear greeted the initial report of the pandemic. Panic followed. Nigerians no longer seem to worry. 

In Lagos, which for months was the epicentre of the pandemic, and still the state with the majority of cases, the people no longer wear face masks. They have bluntly refused to take responsibility. Commuter buses are routinely filled to capacity. Stores, supermarkets, banks and offices still insist on the “No Mask, No Entry” policy but really, nobody is afraid anymore. In the rural parts of the country, it is as if there was never anything called COVID-19: the deadly virus. Go across the country. People now shake hands. Hug each other.  Hold parties. Eat from the same plate. Politicians are beginning to criss-cross the country, and they are not showing good example. In states where there are scheduled elections, and campaigns are on-going, nobody observes any form of physical distancing.  I asked a prominent politician why he does not consider it necessary to insist on COVID-19 protocols during his campaign rallies. He confessed that it would be difficult to do that in politics.  People are just tired. COVID-19 fatigue may in the long run prove to be worse than the virus itself. Meanwhile, no flattening of the curve has been observed. 

There is need for caution, and perhaps this is where efforts need to be concentrated going forward. Nigerians and other Africans may just have been lucky so far with COVID-19. Nonetheless, it is better to learn from other countries and not assume that we are entitled to some form of scientific or divine immunity. As Nigeria fully re-opens, the government should not rule out the possibility of ordering a fresh lockdown in parts of the country should there be a sudden surge in infections. 

Today, many countries that opted for the lifting of the lockdown are now introducing stricter measures as they experience a second wave of the virus - as in India, Israel, France, Austria, South Korea, Germany, or a third wave - as in Hong Kong. For example, when Israel which had proven capable of containing the virus in March, chose to re-open its schools in May, its COVID-19 infection rates escalated rapidly to become one of the world’s highest per-capita rates. Israel had to shut down schools immediately and reintroduced stricter measures. Five times, in the course of the pandemic, South Korea tried to reopen its schools. When it eventually did so in May, it shut down the schools again within days after a sudden spike in cases.  Uruguay and Japan have done much better with the easing of lockdowns. But not Italy, which has now chosen to re-open its schools despite the rise in infections. 

The UK is another useful example. Faced with a sharp rise in the R-Number (that is the rate at which infection spreads from one person to others), the UK has locked down some communities. It has further introduced “the Rule of Six” which forbids the gathering of more than six persons. This rule does not exempt children under 12 in England, but it exempts children under 11 and 12 in Wales and Scotland respectively. The UK has also introduced COVID Marshals who are empowered to break up any group of more than six. Violators are liable to a fine of 100 pounds per member, and double fines for repeated offences up to 3, 200 pounds.  Neighbours are also required to report any suspected breaches to the authorities. What the UK has done is to remind the people that the troubles of COVID-19 are far from over; every one must take responsibility. We need similar measures here in Nigeria. We need COVID-19 Marshals. Gatherings should be restricted. People should be made to pay fines for failing to wear masks or observe social distancing. This is probably the only way to remind Nigerians that the war against COVID-19 has not yet been won. The COVID-19 Marshals can be volunteers who will liaise with the police and relevant authorities.  Now that the schools are re-opening and international flights have resumed, there is greater need for vigilance.  

One key thing government needs to deal with: the misconception that there is already a cure for COVID-19. The other day, a Professor, a man I respect a lot, told me that there is now in Nigerian markets a COVID-19 vaccine, which is approved for sale only in Africa. I told him this is not possible because the known fact is that there is no approved COVID-19 vaccine anywhere in the world yet. What we have is a global race for the vaccine with over 100 possible vaccines still undergoing various stages of clinical trials. He was adamant. He said he was sure of his information. He asked me not to listen to international politics about COVID-19. I was stunned.  I wanted to ask him to show me a picture of the said vaccine or provide more concrete evidence. I didn’t want to appear rude. I kept quiet. But if indeed some Nigerians are promoting a COVID-19 vaccine, unknown to the authorities, that would be very sad indeed. Even the smartest scientists in the world are still busy trying to understand the virus.  It could take years or months before they can record a breakthrough. Last week, AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company collaborating with researchers at the University of Oxford, had to suspend its drug trials when a volunteer who had taken a dose of the experimental vaccine reported severe side effects. The trials have now re-commenced after that deliberate pause. The gold standard in vaccine trials and authorization is safety. Nigeria must ensure that nobody smuggles fake COVID-19 vaccines or drugs into the country. Low-income, developing countries face multiple jeopardy in the face of COVID-19. The main leadership challenge is to protect the people from themselves.  

More than anything else, COVID-19, six months later, has exposed our vulnerabilities as a country and as a people. Nigerians have often paid lip service to the need to diversify the country’s economy away from over-dependence on petroleum resources which account for the bulk of the country’s revenue. With the distortions in global demand and supply, caused by COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions, and lower demand for crude, Nigeria suffered a revenue crisis. Pre-COVID, the country’s economy was weak. COVID worsened everything. Nigeria had to revise its 2020 budget twice. We also had to go a-borrowing, cap in hand. The country’s CPI (inflation) rose up to 12.82%. Unemployment figures shot through the roof. By Q3 2020, Nigeria will be in recession, a second time in 5 years. There are projections inflation could hit 14% plus by December 2020. There has been so much talk about recovery by 2022, but nobody is certain about the nature of that recovery: V, W, U, or L–shaped. 

Even with the best of intentions, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has not been able to save the Naira or resolve liquidity problems. The government has been very eloquent about what it can do for the people: palliatives, stimulus packages, economic sustainability programmes. intervention funds but official policies have been at best ambivalent. The recent removal of fuel subsidy, and the hike in electricity tariffs have both further eroded the average Nigerian’s purchasing power. Questions have therefore been raised about leadership and policy choices. Consider this:  In other parts of the world, governments have duly acknowledged in the face of the pandemic, the heroism of frontline healthcare workers and first responders. Here in Nigeria, amid COVID-19 pandemic, health workers have in the last six months declared industrial actions against states and the Federal Government. They are unhappy that government does not consider it necessary to pay them salary arrears and COVID-19 hazard allowance. Only two states- Nasarawa and Enugu-  have reportedly paid up to date. Last week, the National Association of Resident Doctors (NARD) went on strike. The doctors had to be mollified. This week, the Joint Health Workers Union of Nigeria (JOHESU) also embarked on strike over non-payment of COVID-19 allowances. Why pick fights with medical doctors and other frontline care providers in the middle of a global health crisis? Why downplay the crisis of hunger and poverty in the land? 

It is not all gloom though. ThisDay newspaper recently published a list of heroes and amazons of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The list includes institutions, private sector figures, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, medical practitioners, and others who have contributed in cash and in kind and worked hard to manage the spread of the virus. When all this is over, it would be necessary to also compile a list of COVID-19 villains. I am keeping notes.   

“So this is how we will just adjust to the new fuel price at the petrol stations, and government will get away with the imposition of greater hardship on the people?” 

“No. Government is very clear. The fuel subsidy regime is not sustainable. The PPMC, NNPC and the PPPRA made that clear in April. What they said was that the Federal Government can no longer pay subsidies on petrol and that prices will be determined by market forces. In any case, there is no provision for subsidy payments in the 2020 budget” 

“How about the billions that were paid in July? About N535. 9 billion” 

“That payment was for the backlog of subsidy before the Government announced a new policy. And Nigeria is not alone. In March, Saudi Aramco made a similar announcement. If you live in Saudi Arabia, you will buy petrol at market rates. In fact, by the 10^th of every month, Saudi Aramco announces new fuel prices.”   

“I beg. Spare me that. You people are always comparing apples and oranges. Suddenly so many people have become emergency economists. Market forces that have no human face. Selective market forces. Go and check the Saudi Arabia that you are quoting. What is the GDP or minimum wage there compared to Nigeria’s? What kind of leaders do they have? Are their refineries working or not? If our policy makers love market forces so much, so why are we not allowing market forces to determine the true value of the Naira? Why has the CBN not taken the bold step to unify the foreign exchange rates?” 

“You see this is the problem with our people. Nigerians like to talk from both sides of the mouth. You are criticizing the deregulation of the downstream sector, and the end of the subsidy regime, and yet you are saying the Naira should be allowed to find its own market value. If government does that, you will be one of the first to start protesting that the Naira was stronger in 2015, and that devaluation is punishing the people and businesses. I think we should just praise the government for its courage, and capacity to take bold decisions.”

“They have not done anything new. It is the timing that is bad. In 2012, the Jonathan administration did exactly the same thing. Offered the same explanations.  But you people went and set up camp in Ojota to ask for freedom from high fuel prices. And what did the Jonathan administration do. Exactly the same scenario. And yet it was an increase from N67 per litre to N97 per litre. When the price of crude oil dropped internationally, the government at the time then announced a downward review from N97 to N87. And yet you people went on to the streets. “Occupy Nigeria!” The Buhari government raised petrol price in 2016 from N87 to N145. Nobody protested. Today, we have jumped from N148 per litre to N161 per litre. If care is not taken by December we may hit N200 per litre. And yet nobody is in Ojota. Where are the Ojota democrats?”

“Nobody is stopping you from going to Ojota. You can also go there and organize your own protests. Just be ready for the consequences.”

“What I even find shocking is that Nigerians are now begging the Nigeria Labour Congress and the  Trade Union Congress and other unions to speak up”

“NLC and TUC have issued statements.”

“Which statements? Only yesterday, some Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) went to picket the NLC Secretariat in Abuja. They called on the NLC President to declare a nationwide protest.” 

“They could have been arrested. I hope they know that.  For disrupting the public order, for inciting organized labour against the government of the day and seeking to sabotage government.” 

“This is the thing about you APC sympathizers. Are you now looking for a government appointment?”

“That’s hate speech. This government has warned many times that people should avoid hate speech.”

“But in 2012, nobody talked about hate speech. The PDP government engaged stakeholders. The House of Representatives investigated the payment of petrol subsidies to petroleum marketers. Fraud was uncovered. The Federal Government set up its own probe and technical committees. The payments were reviewed. Suggestions were made as to what should be done. The refineries for example. If we get the refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna working at optimal capacity, we would increase local refining and we won’t have to import refined petrol from offshore refineries. We can create jobs here and put an end to the inefficiency of the NNPC, and break its needless monopoly.” 

“Forget it. Those refineries are better sold off as scrap. Did you not read the NNPC financial statements which indicated that those refineries lost over N423 billion in 2018, and over N50 billion in 5 months this year? Nothing will change.” 

“But how about the Dangote Refinery that will process 650, 000 barrels of crude per day? I understand the Bua Group is also setting up a refinery in partnership with the French conglomerate, Axens.”

“Yes, that will address the issue of more supply and create jobs. But the technology for setting up those refineries you talk about is not locally made. Even some levels of expertise would have to be procured from abroad. Dangote and Bua will also buy crude at international market rates. So local refining does not mean fuel will be necessarily cheaper. Simple economics. Market reality.” 

“Keep talking until people begin to die inside this your market of cruel forces. You people have increased VAT. You have increased electricity tariffs by over 100%. Inflation is 12.82%. Interest rate on savings is a miserable 1.25%. Prices of rice, beans, pepper and tomatoes have jumped up. A bag of rice that used to be N20, 000 is now N35, 000. Transport fares have increased. I hear even prostitutes and side chicks these days are also quoting market forces! They too are thinking of deregulating their market. Demand and supply.”  

“Well, these are unusual times. COVID-19 has distorted everything. Nigeria has a revenue problem and a debt problem. But I am sure everything will be fine because Nigerians trust this government. Every Nigerian should be prepared to make a sacrifice.” 

“Did you just talk about trust and sacrifice? And if I may ask: what sacrifice are Nigerian leaders making? Name one or two that you know.”

“Every conversation with you is always a wrestling match. I beg. Na you sabi. You can go to Ojota, if you like. I have said my own.” 

“There is no point. They won’t listen. By the way, are you going to Benin to vote in the Gubernatorial election on September 19?”

“No. I have no such plans. I ain’t going nowhere.” 

“You don’t want to go and support your brother?”

“Nope. I don’t want to be caught in any crossfire. The way those guys are going, I foresee serious outbreak of violence if not on election day, then may be after.”

“You know after the Oba of Benin summoned a peace meeting in the palace last week, I thought all the gladiators will sheathe their swords. In Oredo last weekend, I was surprised when the papers reported that Governor Obaseki threatened to bury Comrade Adams Oshiomhole politically on September 19. The PDP Campaign Council Chairman, Chief Dan Orbih also attacked Oshiomhole and accused him of having organized a fire incident in 2012 to hide the truth about the Primary Six Certificate that he claims he has. This election is a contest with Oshiomhole, Obaseki said. 

“They should leave Oshiomhole alone, I beg. He is not a candidate in the election. And all of them should know what it means to disobey the Oba of Benin. They could be tagged an enemy of the palace!”

“Meaning what? Is this the first time a Bini man will be tagged Oghion Oba? Leave that matter. These politicians don’t care. Wasn’t that how Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu went to Akure, Ondo State to announce at a rally on Saturday that the PDP in the state is dead? Or how did he put it, something about a corpse inside a coffin.”

“That’s just political talk. How can an opposition party that has a candidate in the election, duly recognized by the Electoral Commission be said to be dead? We’d know which party is alive and which one is dead on election day. Ondo is October 10, right?”

“Yes. But the politics in Ondo State is likely to be as hot what we are seeing in Edo State. I don’t know whether you watched the interview the Governor, Arakunrin Akeredolu had on Arise TV on Monday.” 

“Aketi?”

“Yes. He was firing from every cylinder in his system. He had very harsh words for Agboola Ajayi and former Governor Mimiko.” 

“Was he also talking about death?” 

“Well he said Mimiko is politically dead in Ondo State. He called him a spent force. But incidentally, the same day, some thugs stormed the Ondo State House of Assembly and took it over. That is not a good sign.”   

“Don’t worry. It is all politics. It will pass.” 

“I think we should worry about violence in politics and the rhetoric of hate. Especially now that Pastors are also beginning to sound and talk like the politicians, turning the pulpit into a bully arena. Any expression of intolerance should be monitored and checked.” 

“And who is the Pastor who is now sounding like a politician?”

“Have you not been following the news?  Have you not seen that trending video in which Pastor David Ibiyeomie of the Salvation Ministries abused and attacked the broadcaster, Daddy Freeze for criticizing Bishop David Oyedepo whom he calls his Daddy. He asked: who is his father?”  

“Pastor Ibiyeomie must have been listening to DJ Cuppy’s music… Oh Gelato!...Who is your Daddy?..”

“Except that Pastor was not joking. He called Daddy Freeze a bastard. He cursed the day he was born and threatened that if he ever dared to disrespect his own Daddy, his Papa in the Lord, Bishop Oyedepo again, he will die”

“I thought that was too much. It was so distasteful, the way the Pastor went on and on. What did Daddy Freeze do? He merely expressed an opinion. He disagreed with Bishop Oyedepo’s advice that women should be totally submissive to their husbands. (Ephesians 5: 22). There are others who responded in the same fashion and quoted other sections of the Bible. Women wrote on twitter that a couple should both be submissive to one another. After all, the Bible asks men to also love their wives as Christ loved the church. (Ephesians 5: 25)” 

“Bishop Ibiyeomie apparently thinks that is blasphemy. He thinks, a Daddy Freeze, a broadcaster, should not disagree with a Prophet of the Lord. For his effrontery, he is now being threatened with a death sentence. Touch not my anointed. Daddy Freeze touched the anointed. He should report Pastor Ibiyeomie to the Inspector-General and ask for protection.”

“Really, so what is the difference between what Pastor Ibiyeomie has done and the death sentence passed on the musician in Kano State, I mean Yahaya Sharif-Aminu? I understand some people are even saying Aminu cannot be defended on appeal by a Muslim lawyer. It is the same thing.”

“Did you listen to that part where the pastor even said “broadcaster… he doesn’t even have a good job”   

“I laughed… Broadcasting is not a good job, the gospel according to Pastor Ibiyeomie! I think he owes all broadcasters an apology. How can he just dismiss a noble profession like that?” 

“But the truth is that Pastor Ibiyeomie is himself a broadcaster. He probably doesn’t realize it. I used to attend the Salvation Ministries in Abuja. The main sermon from Port Harcourt, with Pastor Ibiyeomie ministering was delivered through a broadcast channel. I just hope the Pastor is not going to turn around and claim that this particular video has been doctored, and does not truly reflect what he said. I just hope so.” 

“Men of God should not use the pulpit to sound like politicians or play God. Pa-si-tor, ewo n ti epe?”

“If you are the owner of the pulpit, I guess you can pretty much say what you like. The real problem are the members of the Congregation. People get so carried away, they don’t critically analyze what their Pastors say. They allow themselves to be held spell-bound.  Did you not notice when the pastor said: “I curse the day you were born!”, how the congregation chorused in approval?” 

“I was shocked. But this is probably why a law like the Companies and Allied Matters Act 2020, Section 839 (1), (2) is important. A part of it talks about public interest. It is certainly not in the interest of the public for religious leaders to turn their pulpits into a platform for intimidation, defamation, and harassment.”

“What are you suggesting?” 

“The law speaks for itself and there are circumstances that may justify it, despite the objections of some people.”

“Please, please, p-lease. I don’t want to get into that conversation with you. I don’t want any Pastor to turn me into a target. I was born on a truly blessed day… Only God knows what some of these Pastors have on their tongues.” 

“You are a coward.” 

“Yes. I accept. I beg.” 

“You should be like Daddy Freeze.”

“I am my own person. Thanks.”    

The renewed interest in the crisis that continues to rock Southern Kaduna would be helpful if it produces a genuine effort at resolving the problem and ensuring lasting peace in that part of the country that remains troubled, divided and to all intents and purposes, a killing field. It was reported that between July 21 and July 24, about 43 persons were killed across communities in Southern Kaduna, and over a period of seven months, about 178 persons lost their lives. What makes the situation tragic is that the killers often served notice of the impending attacks and carried out their threats, for hours on end in many cases, unhindered, unchecked, unrestrained.  Even when the state government imposed a 24-hour curfew, the killings still continued. Homes were often burnt down. Women were raped. Innocent children were caught in the cross-fire. Farmlands were razed to the ground resulting in economic hardship. The Southern Kaduna question is an open-ended story of a people’s unending search for peace. The area known as Southern Kaduna is both a geographical and political category, but the context of the perpetual crisis is rooted in history.  It is the story of a people, living together for more than a century and yet unable to find accommodation as a result of historical rivalries, politics of ownership, identity, ethnicity, economy and religion. What we are dealing with basically is autochthony: politics of origin, identity and space, linked with a crisis of belonging that serves as a catalyst for conflict and violence. Conflicts are not an African creation; they are a global phenomenon. But what matters is how each country addresses its ontological uncertainties through the application of peace-building, conflict-resolution, as well as vertical and horizontal, inter-communal, integration mechanisms. 

During the colonial era, the area known as Southern Kaduna was part of the Zaria Province. It was not just home to over 30 ethnic nationalities, the people were predominantly non-Muslims, but with the seat of power in Zazzau (as Zaria was formerly known), it meant that the various ethnic nationalities: Atyap, Adara, Agbiri, Kagoma etc. found themselves under the control of the Hausa-Fulani, the majority group in the Northern part of the province. Over the years, the Hausa-Fulani hegemony established an emirate system to which the indigenous people of Southern Kaduna paid taxes, and to whose rules and directives they were subjected. Non-Muslims were marginalized, forced into hard labour and expected to convert to Islam. Their lands also provided good grazing fields for Hausa-Fulani herders. The British authorities conveniently took advantage of this situation, but the marginalized people of the South, who now had the Hausa-Fulani living among them and occupying a higher rung of the social ladder, and gradually taking control of space, began to resent the new reality. When missionaries began to arrive in the area in larger numbers, the indigenous people embraced Christianity with great fervor, a kind of revolt against the Emirate system which they had come to view suspiciously as a symbol of oppression. 

In May 1946, the Atyap of Zangon-Kataf rebelled when the Emir increased taxes. They also began to agitate for control over their own affairs. In 1967, they got their own District Head. Like the Atyaps, the other indigenous ethnic nationalities also resisted the dominance of the Hausa-Fulani. A major source of conflict has been ownership of farmlands and the right of access to land. The Hausa-Fulani in Southern Kaduna, over the years also enjoyed better patronage from the colonial and post-colonial authorities at regional and federal levels. With regard to land, the indigenous people never accepted the argument by the Muslim Hausa-Fulani that “Everything belongs to Allah. Every piece of land belongs to Allah and not you, it is not for you infidels but for Allah” that is “Komai na Allah ne. Ko wane fili na Allah ne ba naku ba, ba na kafirai ba, na Allah ne.” This definition of real property by Muslim members of the community did not appeal to the Christians. Africans generally have a fanatical attachment to land, the reason the possession of it or the outright ownership of it is a potent source of conflict across the continent. In Kasuwan-Magani (1980) and Gure-Kahugu (1984), conflict arose over land. 

There is an existing rich literature on the various causes of conflict in Southern Kaduna, but central to it all is the politics of division, them vs. us, your own vs my own, that has kept the people divided. Oftentimes, the main cause of the conflict is an attempt by one group to dominate the other or resist the other. In 1987, the Kafanchan riots began in a College of Education and the main problem was religion. The riot in the Zangon Kataf area in 1992 was all about disagreements over the location of a market. In May 2000, the riots spread from Southern Kaduna to other parts of Kaduna State. In virtually every incident, religion is always a major issue as seen in 2011, 2015, 2016, 2019, and now in 2020, and as further evidenced by the number of churches that are burnt and Christian leaders that are killed. It has been argued that the Hausa-Fulani seem to have an upper hand in the various conflicts because  they receive the support of herdsmen from across the Sahel, Niger, Mali, Chad and other places, who at certain seasons migrate to Nigeria to graze cattle. It is more of the truth however that the Southern Kaduna narrative is complex. Like the British colonialists, modern-day politicians – first the military and later civilians have exploited the situation for their own narrow gains. Intellectual hegemons on both sides of the divide have authorized sectional and jaundiced narratives to protect their people’s interests. Muslims insist for example that they have also been victims in the hands of non-Muslims, and that no one should complain about revenge killings. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), and the Pentecostal Bishops Forum of Northern Nigeria insist that the attack on Christians in Southern Kaduna amounts to a violation of the right of Christians to enjoy the freedoms of belief and association, and that the Nigerian state is complicit in this regard. Ethnic nationalists protest about what they classify as genocide or ethnic cleansing in Southern Kaduna. In the wake of the last round of killings in the area, the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria declared a period of mourning and prayers from August 22 – September 30, 2020.   Christian stakeholders have petitioned the United Nations Human Rights Council, the UK Parliament and the US Congress. 

What seems certain perhaps is the fact that there are no saints in the killing fields of Southern Kaduna. It will be recalled that the 1987 Kafanchan riots began when a Christian group decided to put up a provocative banner: “Welcome to Jesus Campus” at the Kafanchan College of Education! The Southern Kaduna question is, as I see it, a reflection of the national question as much as it is a dimension of the dilemma of “religion, politics and power in Northern Nigeria”. It further speaks to the crisis of state failure and capture. Successive administrations have set up panels of inquiry on killings in Southern Kaduna. White Papers have been issued and despite the fact that the trend remains the same, the various recommendations are never implemented. Political leaders take sides in the conflict, thus failing to show leadership. They make inflammatory statements which embolden the criminals they claim are behind the killings. When the night raids occur, the security agencies usually fail to show up, and when they do, great havoc would have been committed, with tragic consequences. Those who lost their loved ones and property in fact allege that security agents openly encourage and assist the bandits. The effect is that many communities in Southern Kaduna are now contemplating taking up arms to defend themselves. 

The reign of impunity and the failure of the state to act, when replaced by a resort to self-help, is a prescription for anomie.  The people of Southern Kaduna, particularly the Christian communities are losing interest in the Nigerian state. They see their present travails as a re-enactment of the oppression, marginalization and abuse that they suffered under the old Emirate system. The international community has expressed concern about the human rights implications of the insecurity in various parts of the country.  Many families have been displaced across the North. The Internally Displaced Persons camps are over-stretched. The Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU), the umbrella body of the people of Southern Kaduna, has received great support and solidarity from other ethnic groups in the country including the Pan-Niger Delta Forum, the Southern and Middle Belt Forum, Ohanaeze, and the Afenifere, with each group stressing the national implications of the reign of violence in different parts of the country. 

The incumbent Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai has been blamed by some critics for mismanaging the crisis in the Southern part of the state he governs. As we have seen, he has a lot more to do. He is dealing with a century-old problem, fed by memory, mutual unwillingness to embrace peace, ego, class, religion, and ethnicity.  Following the latest round of conflicts, Governor Nasir el-Rufai summoned a State Security Council meeting and has also met with a delegation of the Christian Association of Nigeria. He has expressed his government’s willingness to work together with the security agencies to ensure peace in Southern Kaduna. Other Governors before him made similar promises.  He has also asked the leaders and the people of the area to make up their minds to live together in peace, and seek to resolve their differences through lawful means. As Governor, he must take the lead in that regard. In 2016, he offered compensation to members of the Hausa-Fulani community who lost property in a similar incident. He must take steps to also assist non-Muslims. How many churches, or markets is the Governor willing to help rebuild? How much compensation would the state offer those who lost their farmlands and other properties?  The people do not trust the state government. Concrete steps should be taken to gain their trust. 

As if in response to the Governor’s call for unity, however, a Peace Summit was held the other day by Atyap, and Hausa-Fulani communities in Zangon-Kataf Local Government where the community leaders agreed to end hostilities. They agreed to set up a Standing Peace Committee. They also signed a 14-point resolution. It is not often that Muslims and Christians in Southern Kaduna sit together at a round-table for peace talks, so that is a welcome development. A similar meeting should be held in every local government in the region. The ordinary people: the farmers, the herdsmen and others should be part of that conversation. The major problem we often have in our communities is the lack of vertical integration. The elites are so high up, so class conscious. Even when they claim to be representing the people’s interests, the people believe that they are just representing themselves or the class that they belong to. Most of our so-called Nigerian big men are so alienated from the people, they have no idea what the people want. To build peace, there must be trust. To build trust, there must be a meeting of minds. The people who are targeted for attacks are not necessarily the men in high places who collect sitting allowances even when they attend Peace Summits, they are the farmers on whose farmland a herdsman grazes his cattle and destroys the crops, they are the market women who are raped, the young men and women who are abused. They must have a voice in this conversation.     

One other latest development in this connection is the statement made about the Southern Kaduna situation by the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo at the 60^th Annual General Conference of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA). It was good to hear from the Vice President. The Presidency has so far been too bureaucratic and academic about the security situation in the country. But Professor Osinbajo spoke from the heart. He apologized to the people of Southern Kaduna and empathized with them. He pointed out that as far back as 2001, he had been involved in the peace-building process in Kaduna State through the Macedonia Initiative, a Non-Governmental Organization. He disclosed that the Federal Government is setting up a military base in Southern Kaduna. A combined team from the Army and the Navy has also been deployed to check the reign of impunity in the affected areas. “We won’t sweep underlying issues under the carpet”, he promised. 

It is good to hear someone so high up refer to the underlying issues at the centre of the Southern Kaduna crisis. Those underlying issues are hydra-headed as the drift of this commentary, should by now indicate, but one major issue is the deployment of security personnel. Many of these security agents have become part of the problem because they identify with camps in the conflict. No bandit has ever been prosecuted for causing mayhem in Southern Kaduna because the security agent who has been deployed to apprehend, or stop him, identifies with him and his ideology. What is the point in sending a Hausa-Fulani Muslim soldier or policeman to arrest a Hausa-Fulani bandit? That is one underlying issue that needs to be addressed. The Nigerian State, by its own omissions, promotes impunity. The Southern Kaduna is not a peculiar problem that is beyond human solution. Nigerian leaders should focus on the structural basis of ethnic conflicts and the stress factors associated with internal colonialism under a democratic dispensation. Why should anyone ever feel like the other, the outsider, the marginalized in their own space under a democratic dispensation? Lessons can be learnt from disputes in other parts of Nigeria: Ijaw-Itsekiri in Delta State, Nupe-Yoruba in Kwara, Ife-Modakeke in Osun, Jukun-Tiv conflicts in Benue/Taraba States and the many recommendations of various panels of inquiry on Southern Kaduna which no one has ever bothered to implement. 

I admire Nasir el-Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State for his intellectual abilities and what he has been able to achieve within the public space, but I am not his fan.  I have had two rather disturbing encounters with him. The first I would overlook because at the time, I thought he spoke out of plain honesty. But there was a second encounter that I have never been able to get out of my mind. Sometime in 2013, I had taken permission from President Goodluck Jonathan to stay back in London for a few days to sort out some personal matters. The request was granted. The Presidential delegation returned to Abuja without me. A few days later on my way back home, aboard British Airways, guess who I ran into as I tried to settle down: Nasir el-Rufai.  I was so excited to see him. He had just then published his impressive memoir: The Accidental Public Servant (Safari Books, 2013, 627pp.) I rushed to meet him and enthusiastically told him that I had read his book and that I was impressed. I congratulated him. He was busy putting his hand luggage in the overhead compartment. As soon as he was done with that, he turned towards me and bellowed: 

“Abati, you are calling us yesterday’s men eh? Very soon, you too will be a yesterday man. When we become today’s people, we will show you what it means to be a yesterday man!”. 

He didn’t respond to my compliments about his book. The scowl on his face was enough to frighten a lion. I was so confounded, I simply walked back to my seat. I kept to my lane throughout the trip. I was Nigeria’s Presidential spokesman at the time. Indeed, I had written a piece titled “The Hypocrisy of Yesterday’s Men” (February 3, 2013). I wrote in defence of my boss: “A loosely bound group of yesterday’s men and women seems to be on the offensive against the Jonathan administration.  They pick issues with virtually every effort of the administration, pretending to do so in the public interest; positing that they alone, know it all. Arrogantly, they claim to be better and smarter than everyone else in the current government. They are ever so censorious, contrarian and supercilious. They have no original claim to their pretensions other than that they were privileged to have been in the corridors of power once upon a time in their lives. They obviously got so engrossed with their own sense of importance they began to imagine themselves indispensable to Nigeria. It is dangerous to have such a navel-gazing, narcissistic group inflict themselves with so much ferocity on an otherwise impressionable public. We are in reality dealing with a bunch of hypocrites.” 

I went further: “With exceptions so few, they really don’t care about Nigeria as a sovereign but the political spoils that accrue from it.  And so they will stop at nothing to discredit those they think are not as deserving as they imagine themselves to be. President Jonathan has unfairly become the target of their pitiable frustrations. They mask self-interest motives as public causes and manipulate the public’s desire for improvements in their daily struggles as opportunity for power grab…”  I didn’t mention anyone directly. But I recall Femi Fani-Kayode, my friend, brother and associate, long before the Jonathan years, was the only other person who attacked me around the period. I had made another comment and Fani-Kayode promptly retorted that Reuben Abati could only have said whatever he said because he was the product of a same-sex marriage. 

The same Femi Fani-Kayode would later realize his own hypocrisy. He eventually abandoned the company of hypocrites and aligned with the Jonathan government. He in fact led Presidential Jonathan’s second-term campaign as strategist and campaign spokesperson. Nasir el-Rufai was one of those who never took the Road to Damascus. In my 2013 essay, I did not mention his name. I gave examples including that of some Quantity Surveyors who needed to return to their professions and desist from turning Nigeria, after a spell in public office, into a meal ticket. Nasir el-Rufai is a Quantity Surveyor. He obviously assumed that the innuendo was directed at him. He took it personal. But on the spur of the moment, I couldn’t think up a justification for his attitude towards me. His arrogance. His malicious conduct. I have a big ego myself. But Nasir el-Rufai’s ego is taller than the tallest building in the world. He has had a brilliant public career, and he is one of our brightest, but his public persona is that he is completely undiplomatic. There is nobody he cannot abuse. There is no harsh phrase that he cannot utter. His critics insist that he respects nobody, fears nobody, and yet everyone wonders what feeds his ego. What is it based on? In his days as Minister of the Federal Territory, he demolished people’s houses at will. He fought the National Assembly. I will rate him as the best Minster of the FCT so far though, even if he went about his job in a very tactless manner. 

As Governor of Kaduna State, he has also shown the same lack of tact and diplomacy. We are dealing with hubris it seems. In his public career since President Olusegun Obasanjo discovered him in 1999 and brought him aboard Nigeria’s big stage, Nasir el-Rufai has consistently acquired a public persona as an intolerant public servant, and a perpetual accident. In Kaduna state which he presides over, anybody that criticizes him in any way, is most likely to be slammed with a legal suit and detained. He has fought Shiites. He has abused the leaders of Southern Kaduna. He is said to be above the courts of the land because he does not respect their orders. One Bishop had the temerity to prophesy that he, El-Rufai will never be President of Nigeria, the Bishop is now in court to respond to charges of criminal defamation for daring to prophesy that the Almighty Nasir El-Rufai will never be “President of Nigeria”.

This piece is titled “NBA vs Nasir el-Rufai”. My simple point in that regard which is the main thrust of this piece is that Nasir el-Rufai is in part, the victim of his own hubris. He has lessons to learn from his current travails and I hope that he will soon be on the Road to Damascus.  But at the same time, I think the joke is on the NBA, not el-Rufai. Paul Usoro, the outgoing President of the Nigerian Bar Association has handled the el-Rufai matter in a most embarrassing, cowardly and disgraceful manner. Nasir el-Rufai was invited by the Technical Conference Planning Committee (TCCP) of the NBA as a keynote Speaker at the Annual General Conference of the NBA 2020. The theme is “STEPPING FORWARD” and the question is: “Who is a Nigerian? A Debate on National Identity” (26 -29 August 2020) with a special session focusing on the topic: “Am I a Nigerian – A Debate on National Identity, The Indigeneship-Citizenship Conundrum”. It is a virtual conference, the first in the history of the NBA, in other words, a COVID-19 determined and compliant conference of the NBA, and the 60^th Annual General Conference of the body.  

When the Technical Committee for Conference Planning (TCCP) of the NBA decided to invite Nasir el-Rufai as a keynote speaker at this particular session, they must have thought of the fact that more than any other Governor in Nigeria at the moment, he is one Governor who has had to deal with the issue of identity crisis, especially in the Southern part of the state that he governs. Besides, he has the intellectual heft, the analytic skills and the knowledge of the national question being addressed. His ability in these regards is beyond question and he has the confidence to articulate his views in any forum locally and internationally. The Presidential Conference Planning Committee could not have made a better choice. You may not like el-Rufai’s attitude and his lack of tact, but you cannot question his ability as a diligent and first-rate intellect. By uninviting him to the 60^th NBA 60^thGeneral Conference, the NBA submitted itself to the will of an aggressive and vocal minority in a manner that could affect the future of the NBA negatively. Most of the people who signed the petition against Nasir el-Rufai come across like persons who nurse personal grudges against him and who failed to look at the big picture. The NBA as A.U. Mustapha, SAN has argued convincingly, should not be politicized. It must not be personalized. It must not be used to settle political, ethnic or personal scores. The decision to uninvite Nasir el-Rufai to this year’s NBA conference which commences tomorrow is a major low in the history of the NBA. Targeting one man out of a long list of other persons who have been identified by the Radical Agenda Movement led by Ogunlana Esq. as not necessarily saintly amounts to partiality and institutional malice. 

Paul Usoro, the outgoing NBA President has also not handled the matter with wisdom. He has presided over the NBA in one of its lowest moments in the last 60 years. The decision to open up the NBA Annual Conference to non-lawyers and stakeholder communities is one of the major achievements of the last few years, but in a last moment act of indiscretion, Usoro’s NBA has blown that up. The scapegoating of el-Rufai by a group that has had more despicable persons on its list of invitees over the years is an indication of unfairness, injustice and malice by the same persons who claim to defend the rule of law.  The NBA should be an open forum for all ideas to contend and for all persons to enjoy the benefit of fair hearing. With the NBA vs el-Rufai saga, may be the NBA is better off in the future inviting only persons who will tell members what they would like to hear. Even worse and this should be condemned, is the spineless, cheap and pathetic letters of apology written to the Muslim Lawyers Association of Nigeria (MULAN) and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum by Paul Usoro, the NBA President. These were self-serving letters in which Usoro tried to disown the NBA NEC. What kind of cowardly conduct is that? His silly apologies have brought the Usoro Presidency to an ugly end. Coming shortly after he presided over a most controversial NBA Presidential election and a lackluster tenure, Usoro by August 27 will be handing over a divided and troubled NBA. Nasir el-Rufai is not the problem of the NBA. The NBA, turned into a rent-seeking vehicle, is its own problem, and it is sad to see a once dynamic and progressive NBA, reduced to a beggarly body. Was it not under Usoro’s watch that a Chief Justice was disgraced out of office and judges were humiliated? The association faces a leadership crisis that it must resolve and address, especially now that there is a simmering battle between the inner and outer Bar for its soul. 

It is not too late to reverse the dis-invitation of Nasir el-Rufai to the 60^th NBA AGC.  But he can take sufficient solace in the fact that he is not the problem. His travail with the NBA is only an indication of a problem within the NBA itself. Olumide Akpata’s emergence as NBA President is seen as the triumph of the young Turks within the NBA, that is the Outer Bar. Nasir el-Rufai is just a convenient pawn in an existing conflict. We should, therefore, look farther into the future. Olumide Akpata who by next week would have assumed office, has his job cut out for him. He has to unite a divided House. He must also restore confidence in the Bar. He will either take charge or cede control to a vocal, aluta continua group within the NBA that has shown its hands rather early with the objection to Nasir el-Rufai. The radical elements within the NBA must focus on larger issues beyond the politics of malice and personality. The NBA  is in urgent need of reform. 

I got a call about a week ago informing me that it was the birthday of Herbert Wigwe, the CEO of Access Bank and it would be nice to drink up on his behalf, thank the Almighty and shame the Devil as it were. Since the easing of the lockdown, boys have been looking for every opportunity to return to the old normal. I declined. I resist temptations to defy COVID-19; for, even more careful persons have fallen victim. 

In normal times, I would have jumped at an opportunity to celebrate Herbert Wigwe who is certainly one of the biggest revelations in Nigeria’s banking industry in this century. When he took over the leadership of Access Bank, the Bank was no. 5. Today, that bank is No. 1 in terms of share capital, loans, deposits, reach and customer satisfaction. In April 2019, under Wigwe’s watch, Access Bank merged with Diamond Bank and became the largest bank in Africa. Wigwe has shown a capacity to control and transform every storm that comes the way of the bank. There is no doubt that he is leading Access bank in the right direction. He and his brother, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, both co-founders of Access Bank, remind me of Fola Adeola and Tayo Aderinokun who both built GT Bank into a global brand. 

At a time when Nigeria’s reputation is being rubbished by the likes of Hushpuppy and Woodberry and the 419 gang, Herbert Wigwe and his team give Nigeria great hopes. He is a role model for the younger generation. Today, Access Bank is not just a Tier-I Bank, it has branches across Africa which provide jobs for millions across the continent. And yet Wigwe is just 54. He is in addition, Chairman of Nigeria’s Bankers’ Committee. A high-achieving brother like him truly deserves a drink and a salute. The organisers should please invite me next year when, hopefully, our lives would have become normal again. In the meantime, many happy returns Herbert. May your days be long.   

“Sorry about your man”

“Thank you”

“You know I used to think that this COVID-19 thing is a kind of scientific joke, but now I am beginning to take it seriously.” 

“How can you say that? It is people like you who mislead the public. I hope you have not been listening to those Pastors who tell people that COVID-19 is not real. I urge you not to commit suicide by exposing yourself unnecessarily. Are you aware that as at this moment the death toll worldwide is close to one million? And that over 21 million persons have been infected? You call that a joke?”

“But I hear it affects only some kind of people, the rich in particular. Big men.” 

“No. You only get to hear about the death of big men. You know that Shakespearean quote: “When beggars die there are no comets seen;/The heavens themselves blaze forth the death of princes” . Thousands of poor people are probably dying every week in Nigeria as a result of COVID 19. But nobody knows. Nobody will report their death in the news because nobody knows them. In any case, the poor have their own explanation. They don’t quite believe that there is anything called COVID-19. Just like you. They often attribute every death to witches and wizards.”  

“Are you saying witches and wizards cannot use COVID-19 as a weapon of destruction?”

“In your mind. I’d rather stay with science. Superstition and ignorance are the twin threats to the war against COVID-19 in Africa. While the rest of the world is mobilizing scientists, laboratories and resources to find a cure to the disease, Africans are talking about prayers and witchcraft.”

“But I hear that even scientists are saying that the virus doesn’t quite affect some people, due to previous exposure to a virus within the COVID family, or even common cold. Such persons develop natural antibodies in their T-Cells which protect them against the disease. I am actually quoting a report recently published in the Science Journal by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases led by Dr. Anthony Fauci, America’s top expert on infectious diseases.”

“The truth about this disease is that nothing is certain yet. What I have heard is that the virus is constantly mutating and that a new strain has now been discovered in Asia which is likely to be more lethal than the current one. It is called G614.”  

 “I forbid that in Jesus name.” 

“What are you forbidding? Just be careful.” 

“By the way, what do you think of the latest development in Bayelsa State? The Governor’s election has been nullified by the Election Petition Tribunal. What do you think will happen?”

“Governor Douye Diri himself has indicated what will happen. He says his lawyers have been briefed to go to the Court of Appeal and that he is determined to go all the way to the Supreme Court. That is the best option available to him.  A man who became Governor through the instrumentality of the law cannot be seen embracing any option other than the rule of law.”

“Poor fellow. It is as if some people just don’t want him in that position.  Four different petitions were filed against him at the Tribunal by four political parties: the Alliance for Democracy (AD) the United People’s Congress (UPC), the Liberation Movement (LM) and the Advanced Nigeria Democratic Party (ANDP). The petitions by the AD, UPC and LM were dismissed for lack of merit last weekend. But now a few days later, the ANDP petition has been upheld by the Tribunal.  But should Douye Diri lose his seat because of a mistake that was committed by INEC?  Diri was not the person who omitted the name and logo of the ANDP from the ballot box. INEC did that. Is it then right to cancel the election and order a re-run within 90 days on account of that?” 

“Yes. Absolutely. The Tribunal is correct. The ruling draws attention to a fundamental point about the validity of the Gubernatorial election conducted in Bayelsa state on November 16, 2019. The exclusion of the ANDP raises issues of validity.”

“But do you think Diri will win at the Court of Appeal?”

“I don’t know. We should just wait and see.”

“So, if there is a re-run of the Gubernatorial election, will the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, David Lyon now be on the ballot too. After all, he won the election originally until his Deputy brought bad luck to the ticket and the Court nullified David Lyon’s victory.” 

“No. The APC cannot participate in the re-run election. The Lyon-Degi-Eremienyo ticket was declared invalid by the court. It remains so. But I foresee a lot of re-alignments. Even without a candidate in the election, the APC is not likely to fold its hands. The party can align with one of the other political parties, put up a proxy candidate on that other platform and give the PDP a serious fight. The APC will certainly see this as an opportunity to take Bayelsa back. Once their proxy candidate wins, the deed is done. One or two months later, the new Governor will simply jump ship and join the APC. Simple.” 

“It is that simple? I don’t think so” 

“Not quite simple but it is all a matter of political strategy. Strategy matters.”

“Douye Diri will be foolish to allow the APC dislodge him with that kind of strategy. In fact, he should never have allowed the matter to get to this stage. He should have negotiated with the ANDP. Pay them off. In some states in the last election, there were some other political parties who were wrongfully excluded from the ballot sheet. The party that won at the end of the day negotiated with them and nobody went to court to challenge anything.”

“Where did that happen?” 

“Ask me again. Is it me you want to put into trouble? Are you not aware that if you say anything these days, you could be invited for a chat with the Department of State Services (DSS)?”

“You just like to talk. You lack courage.”

“Thank you”

“Okay, just whisper it to me. I won’t tell anybody.”  

“Do I look like a child to you? I am just giving you an idea of how politicians behave. But one thing is certain, in Bayelsa, there will be re-alignments. We saw it happen in Imo State in 2007. That was how Chief Ikedi Ohakim of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) emerged victorious in that election. Chief Ohakim subsequently switched to the PDP, which decided to abandon its own candidate, Senator Ifeanyi Ararume and chose to campaign for Ohakim based on agreements. Ararume had taken the PDP to court. He was expelled by the party and taught a lesson.”  

“Politicians. But it doesn’t look like we will witness the kind of tension we are now seeing in Edo State in Bayelsa state, whatever happens.”

“Let’s wait and see. You can never predict politicians, although I must say that what is going on in Edo State is something else. I am just worried about the people of Edo State. The politicians are not talking about what the people want. They are more interested in their own squabbles and ambition.” 

“I will be surprised if there is no outbreak of violence in Edo State on election Day, September 19 and after, followed by post-election conflict.” 

“The security agencies have their job cut out for them. If there is any breakdown of law and order in Edo State, we must hold the Nigeria police responsible, because the situation is foreseeable. Even the electoral commission INEC, has warned about the threat of violence in Edo State.”  

“INEC should play its own part too. Otherwise, the next thing we will hear is that due to so, so and so, the Gubernatorial election in Edo State has been declared inconclusive!”

“INEC has got to do what it has to do. If the politicians in Edo State do not want that to happen, then they should conduct themselves in a peaceful manner.” 

“You know an idea just occurred to me.  You know the Oba of Benin in Council can actually help ensure electoral peace in Edo State.”

“The Oba already met with leaders of the political parties. He has appealed to them to give peace a chance. But you know the Oba of Benin cannot openly take sides. He is the father of all.” 

“I know. I know. But you think these politicians will listen?”

“So what should the Oba of Benin do then?”

“Simple. You will recall a time when there was a sharp rise in human trafficking and crime in Benin City. The Oba directed the palace priests to bring out all the traditional missiles of Benin City, some of which had not been brought out in the sun for about 800 years. Clad in flaming red, the priests, native doctors and metaphysicians gathered at the palace, with the Oba in attendance and placed a curse on anyone committing crime, promoting human trafficking and disturbing the Edo Kingdom. The strategy worked. Crime rate went down immediately. Human traffickers went on holiday.  Every body just hailed the King: “Oba gha to kpe e” and behaved themselves. I understand the people of Edo believe in the efficacy of curses. So, what the palace needs to do this time is to adopt the same strategy. Place a curse on anybody that tries to sabotage the Gubernatorial election in that state on September 19. You’d be surprised these politicians will not risk the outcome of ancestral curses. And nobody will allow his or her child to act as an agent of violence.” 

“You and your primitive ideas. Where have you ever heard of any such thing? Such an idea is unknown to the democratic process.” 

“It is not everything that you can subject to textbook ideas, my friend. What I am suggesting is a kind of home-grown democracy. Democracy in Africa does not have to be an exact replica of how democracy works in America. My suggestion will work if taken. I probably won’t recommend the same approach in another state, but in Edo State, it is the best way to ensure peace and protect the people.” 

“I see you have not been going to church for a while. But now that the churches have re-opened, you need to seek salvation and confess your sins.” 

“I am not going to church for now. I want to wait till we actually know where we are going with COVID-19”

“I thought you were once a Trustee of your church.”

“Oh, no. Not any more. And in any case, Church Trustees are now in trouble. In the new Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020, it is expressly stated that the Supervising Minister and Registrar General of the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) will regulate religious bodies and charity organizations. In addition, they can suspend the Trustees of an association or a religious body.” 

“Government is looking for trouble. The churches will protest.”

“One of the General Overseers, Daddy Oyedepo, has in fact started the protest. He says no government can regulate his Church or appoint trustees for him. One of these days, I won’t be surprised if churches are asked to start paying tax, or that a General Overseer cannot also serve as Lead Pastor in the church. In other words, you can’t be Chairman of the Church and also be the CEO, while your wife is the Treasurer.”

“That provision applies only to public companies, not non-profit organizations like churches.”

“Who told you a church is not-for-profit? Some churches in this country are richer than many banks!”

“Just be careful. You are toying with blasphemy.”  

“I know what I am talking about. Some church leaders even have private jets.”

“Well, now that international flights will be allowed, the Pastors can now start enjoying their private jets again.” 

“International flights have resumed? When?”

Not yet. On August 29, according to the Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika”

“Do you think we are ready? International flights to where and from where? Definitely not to or from the United States, China, France, India, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina or any country that is a high-risk COVID-19 hotspot.”

“The Minister certainly needs to give more information. As for me and my humble household, no international travel till 2022.”