The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria’s main opposition party, is currently in the throes of a commotion that threatens to destroy the party’s capability to put up any strong showing in the 2023 general elections. Party stakeholders argue that there are enough strong internal mechanisms that would rescue the party and restore it to good health, but those mechanisms do not seem to be working. It may not be too long before the party finds itself on oxygen support, as it struggles with a self-inflicted ailment that is threatening to become a pandemic.

At the height of its power, the PDP was in charge of Nigeria as the dominant political party for 16 years: the party that produced Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo (1999 -2007), Umaru Musa Yar’Ádua (2007 -2010) and Goodluck Jonathan (2010 -2015).  In 1999, with the return to democratic rule, the PDP held 214 seats in the House of Representatives. This increased to 263 in 2007, but dropped to 208 and later 137 in 2011. As of 2007, the party controlled 28 states, and 87 seats in the Senate, this dropped to 71 seats in 2011. That same year, PDP was left with 23 Governors. Up till 2011, it controlled 23 states of the Federation out of 36, plus the FCT. Today, the PDP is a minority party although it bears the comforting title of Nigeria’s major opposition party. The changing fortunes of the PDP in terms of its scope of control over the legislative and executive arms of government indicated a greater crisis.

The best illustration of this was how the party lost the 2015 general elections to an emergent Special Purpose Vehicle called the All Progressives Congress (APC) – an association of strange political bedfellows whose only ambition was to put an end to the Jonathan administration and the PDP’s continued stay in power. By the time the 2015 elections ended, PDP lost the Presidency.  It was down to 13 PDP Governors.  It also lost its majority status in the National Assembly. Many of its leaders abandoned the party. They include Alhaji Adamu Muazu, then Chairman of the PDP, former Chairman of the party, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and former Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Mr-Fix-It, Chief Anthony Anenih. In 2015, the PDP could not fix anything. Much damage had been done earlier to the party when former President Olusegun Obasanjo who served for eight years as President under the platform of the PDP publicly directed that his party membership should be torn into pieces.   

There have been many theories as to why the PDP lost steam and eventually the 2015 General elections. The commonest submission is that after 16 years in office, the party could not manage its success, or that the party had been taken over by those who wanted a Northern President and no-second-term for Jonathan or nothing. But whereas one side of the story does not usually capture the full scope of a manifold experience, it was true that the PDP was sabotaged by the crisis of internal democracy, and the many tendencies within the party pursuing their own narrow interests without a thought for the future. The eventual pain that the party suffered was self-inflicted. The party played into the hands of both fifth columnists and the opposition.  It will be recalled that in August 2013, the Convention of the party at the Eagle Square in Abuja witnessed an unusual spectacle.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and the governors of Adamawa, Kwara, Sokoto, Jigawa, Kano, Rivers, and Niger and all their delegates walked out of the Convention in anger. They later reconvened at the Yar’Ádua Centre to address a press conference. The issue at stake was the election of persons into the 17-member National Working Committee of the party. The Convention continued, but the party was already split down the ranks. This was the incident that led to the emergence of a new PDP, which became a partner in the APC Coalition, and it was widely believed that other aggrieved persons that did not walk away on that occasion, chose to remain within the party to wreak havoc. Alhaji Bamanga Tukur who was Chairman of the party at the time, lost his position to the crisis and was replaced by former Governor, Adamu Muazu who was hailed as “the game changer.” Indeed, the game changed for the PDP.  But could the party have survived the 2015 election if there was greater cohesion among its ranks?  

It was perhaps in sober realization of this and the fact that many PDP candidates who initially won during the 2015 general election eventually lost their positions at the election petition tribunals and the courts, that the party now decided to do an audit of the 2015 general elections. In November 2015, the party held a National Conference in Abuja on “The Sustenance of Democratic Ideals in Nigeria.” As the party grappled with its post-election crisis, Prince Uche Secondus from Rivers State, emerged as the party’s Acting National Chairman. Still, the party was not yet out of the woods. Secondus was challenged in Court by Hon Ahmed Gulak who asked the court to remove Secondus because the position he occupied had been zoned to the North East. Justice Hussain Baba-Yusuf who presided over the case ruled in Gulak’s favour and sacked Secondus - who along with the PDP appealed the judgment. The party was under heavy pressure on all fronts. It lost the Kogi Gubernatorial election to the APC.  It had issues with the Gubernatorial election in Bayelsa state. Key officials of the party and those who served in the Jonathan administration were subjected to heavy harassment, policing and interrogation by the new APC government. The APC accused the PDP and the Jonathan administration of being the cause of Nigeria’s woes. Oil prices had dipped. The country faced both revenue and debt crises. It would soon slip into recession.

Later, in 2016, the PDP held a National Convention at the Sharks Stadium in Port Harcourt. It was an exercise in chaos as the party was before then divided between supporters of the incumbent Chair of the National Working Committee Ali Modu Sheriff and other members of the party. Sheriff left Port Harcourt in a huff, brandishing a court injunction that was ignored. It was the same Port Harcourt Convention that produced former Governor Ahmed Makarfi as Chair of a National Caretaker Committee. The party never recovered from the tussle for legitimacy between the Sheriff and Makarfi factions. In December 2017, the PDP held yet another National Convention which led to the emergence of Prince Uche Secondus as Chairman of the National Working Committee. But the seeds of discord and division that had been sown within the party had germinated, and grown leafy branches. Each time there had been a conflict within the party, the leaders tend to focus more on the party at the national level. They overlook the damage that had been done down the line, all the way to the wards, states and local councils. Before 2015, PDP was the party of choice for many Nigerians. The crisis at the Eagle Square in 2013, the loss of the 2015 general election, and the inability to pull the party back from the brink merely created greater tension from top to bottom. In 2019, the PDP practically donated the election to the APC. The APC won in many states, not because it could boast of a better record of performance but because the PDP was yet to wean itself from the politics of ego and personality conflicts.

Less than two years to the 2023 general elections, the party’s leaders have started again. They seem not to have learnt any lessons from the past. At a time the party should be organizing and strategizing to take power from the APC, and provide Nigerians with an alternative that they badly need now more than ever, they are busy promoting the perception that there isn’t much difference between the PDP and the APC. The way the PDP is managing its politics, it will end up donating the 2023 Presidency to the APC. Governors are major stakeholders in every Nigerian political party. They control the constituencies. They are overlords in charge of the wards and organs of the party in their states. They do and undo. And that is why in the PDP today, the main conflict is between a governor (Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers) and the party Chairman, (Prince Uche Secondus). Once upon a time, they were bosom friends but not anymore. Party members are taking sides. Some are defecting to other parties for both personal and pragmatic reasons. The future of the party as a dominant vote-winning machine hangs in the balance. The party is back to where it was in 2013 before the 2015 elections, and where it was in 2016 before the 2019 election.

I make these comments as someone who experienced and witnessed first-hand in 2014/15 and again in 2018/2019 how the stubbornness of political gladiators can sabotage a political party’s chances. I was the Deputy Gubernatorial candidate of the PDP in Ogun State in the 2019 elections. A year to that election, it was widely believed that the State Gubernatorial election would be won by the PDP. The APC in Ogun State was practically in disarray. It had split into factions. The incumbent Governor did not support the candidate of his own party. The PDP, was also similarly divided, a victim of the Modu Sheriff/Makarfi factionalisation of the party at the centre.  Both factions were in and out of court till three days to the election. When eventually the court ruled in favour of the Buruji Kashamu faction, it was expected that other stakeholders would respect the agreement that was reached earlier that whoever won in court would be supported and outstanding matters would be resolved after the party had achieved the objective of beating the APC at the polls. Meetings were held. Leaders of the various factions waved the olive branch. But as it happened, within 24 hours after the court judgment that favoured the Kashamu faction, those who swore that the party was more important to them than their own interests had dissolved into either the APC or its break-away faction, the Allied People’s Movement (APM). Their conspiracy cost the party dearly.

The point cannot be overstated that politicians in Nigeria do not believe in anything other than their own ambitions. In our political parties, the Machiavellian ethos reigns supreme. Nigeria’s political party system is underdeveloped, driven as it is by all the ugly narratives of the Nigerian experience. Today, in the PDP, after the cliché that the party’s internal mechanisms would be used to resolve the crisis, the other thing you hear is that the APC is trying to sabotage the party, and yet no one can say exactly how the APC is responsible for the collapse of amity between the Chairman of the party and the Governor of Rivers State and others. Secondus is a tested fighter. Wike is a man of courage who likes to win wars. Both gladiators know each other too well. All the persons taking sides in their matter are actually the ones who want to destroy the party. Secondus and Wike are allowing themselves to be used by forces that they met in the course of their political journey from the creeks of the Delta to the blinding heights of Abuja. They both owe themselves a duty to resolve whatever differences they may have. They have both helped each at various times in the past. They can both help the PDP now by burying the hatchet! What does Wike want? Does he want to be a President or Vice-Presidential candidate in 2023 or a Godfather? What does Uche Secondus want? Does he want to have a say in who becomes the standard bearer of the PDP in 2023? Or does he want to succeed Wike as Governor of Rivers State? They should not allow their personal ambitions to ruin many years of friendship and brotherhood and should not drag down the party. Enough damage has been done already. Although APC leaders have more serious problems of their own, they must be in one corner laughing with all corners of their mouth. The worst legacy Secondus can leave behind is to hand over the 2023 general elections to the APC on a platter of gold.

The other problem are those lawyers running from Port Harcourt to Kebbi and to Calabar, all in one week, to secure orders ex parte to ensure the removal of Secondus from office. For many Nigerian lawyers, every election season, before, during and after, is the season for them to eat, to make money. They forget the standards and ethics of the profession and transform into ambulance chasers, looking for any desperate politician who needs an injunction from the courts to gain advantage over a rival. Lawyers are trained to be officers in the temple of justice and respect established procedures. It is one of the reasons why since 1985, every Chief Justice of Nigeria and virtually every Chief Judge of the Federal High Court has warned against the abuse of interim orders ex parte, which is a remedy in civil law procedure that is expected to be given under circumstances of a real urgency. But many judges have turned such orders into an opportunity to jump into the ugly arena of dirty, partisan, politics. They promote personal interests in the process and bring the judiciary to ridicule.

In the on-going PDP crisis, judges presiding over the same courts of co-ordinate jurisdiction have been granting injunctions with appellate import which amounts to an abuse of the justice system. It is shameful and reprehensible. I understand, however, that the CJN has now summoned about six Chief Judges whose courts have been involved in this abuse with regard to the PDP case and election matters in Anambra, Jigawa and Imo.  Judges must be restrained and lawyers must be called to order. The judiciary is the last hope of the common man. If it is turned into the playground of profiteers and desperate politicians, the heavy cost will be borne by the entire society. But while it is good to hear that CJN Ibrahim Tanko Muhammed is making efforts to remind the judges involved of established directives, is it not the case that the CJN himself emerged as a beneficiary of a controversial ex parte order on the basis of which the Federal Government removed Walter Onnoghen, CJN (as he then was) before appointing him in his place? Nigeria is never in short supply of ironies.  

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From what we have seen and heard so far, it seems most likely that the race for the 2023 Presidential position would end up as the fiercest, most contested, and perhaps the most controversial since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999. We all must keep an eye on 2023. In 1999, President Olusegun Obasanjo emerged not because he was a known, seasoned, politician but because the country needed a pair of steady hands and a strong character, with the right connections and experience to save the faltering ship of state, and move the country beyond the evil annulment of the 1993 Presidential election. Obasanjo delivered. But he ran into troubled waters with his succession plans: the politics of Third Term, the bitter quarrel with his Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and his open endorsement of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, whose health status and eventual death in office defined the highest office of the land. President Goodluck Jonathan who succeeded his boss, Yar’Adua was a collective product of the law, and the majority insistence on what was right. His presidency was a turning point and a major historic landmark for Nigeria, an affirmation that Nigeria could also be a land of dreams where a man of humble beginnings could rise to the top.

By 2015, the forces of elite conspiracy and ethno-religious myopism, organised an acidic campaign against the Jonathan Presidency and got him out of office. He was succeeded by President Muhammadu Buhari, a former military Head of State, who had sought the Presidency of Nigeria as a civilian three different times – 1999, 2007 and 2011. In 2015, he was propelled into office by an electorate that had embraced his managers’ promise of change and hope. He was yet another rallying point for great expectations. In 2023, the circumstances would be different. There is no coalescing, propelling force, at this time behind any aspirant, on such a national scale, and of such a momentum as we saw with Obasanjo, Jonathan, and Buhari’s cult-like popularity. And this is why the 2023 Presidency is fast becoming a desperate gamble, a ‘try-your-luck’ kind of proposition, without any core basic agreements. A kind of anybody’s game, generating tension, so early, so far from the commencement of the 2023 electoral process.     

There is no consensus on any issue. The people of the South East argue, rightly that, it is their turn to produce the President of Nigeria. No Igbo man has been President since 1999, although Igbos have helped to put others into office. They want the marginalisation of Igbos to end. They want it on record that the Igbo race is not inferior to any other group in Nigeria. Igbos are the third largest ethnic group in the country. They have been told by Northern spokesmen that nobody will offer them the Presidency on a platter of gold, and that in any case, they should go and organise themselves and reach out to other Nigerians especially now that there is an internal debate in the South East about identity politics – who is Igbo and who is not and who is more Igbo than the other? Many persons consider this suggestion, an insult! The people of the North East and Central zones also insist that it is their turn to have their kinsmen inside the Presidential Villa and that  after the Presidency has gone round the six geo-political zones, we can then begin to talk more seriously about those principles of merit, competence, knowledge – the same issues the other privileged geo-political zones never stretched when the Presidency fell into their laps.

Constitutional provisions on eligibility for the Nigerian Presidency are stated in the 1999 Constitution. There is no mention of ethnicity or geographical zone, although Section 14(3) and (4) mention Federal Character, diversity, unity and justice. The two major political parties have since agreed on an unwritten code of Rotational Presidency, but this is beginning to look more like a tool of political expediency. Ahead of the 2023 general elections, Nigeria’s two major political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) are both engulfed in crises that could be counter-productive. There is no clarity on both sides about how the 2023 process could be used to address the people’s concerns. Not even the National Assembly is serious about the provision of an electoral framework that can inspire trust and confidence. In 2021, Nigeria’s 9^th National Assembly, dominated by the ruling party, voted to prevent the adoption of electronic transmission of election results. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says it is possible and doable, the politicians disagree. In smaller, neighbouring African countries, electronic transmission of results is not a problem. In Nigeria, it is a source of crisis.     

But what I find even more disturbing is the bad rhetoric that is beginning to build up, the high velocity intolerance and the threat of violence that hang dangerously in the air, and the refusal of some emergent “stomach democracy activists” to engage in decent conversation. This has been a bane of Nigerian politics. But it is getting worse. It could even become more frightening. The professional political class must seek counselling for its growing mass psychosis. The right of Nigerians to choose, to express their differences and choices must be respected. Nobody has a monopoly of the right to Nigerian citizenship, or the corridors of power. The way some interested parties are carrying on is deplorable. I recall writing once in this column about likely candidates for the 2023 Presidency titled “The South West Presidential Hopefuls” (April 20, 2021). I made some categorical statements about the chances of those who were in the news at the time: Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and Dr Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State. It was my own review of the political situation and the possibilities. But what did I get in return? Those who felt I was critical of their masters went after me with a sledge hammer. I read one reasonable piece in which the author tried to respond to the issues raised but the others were so poorly written, I couldn’t waste my time reading till the end. Bad writing gives me migraine and there seems to be a large supply of hacks around many of our political figures. In the 80s and 90s, we used to have quality debates in Nigerian newspapers. Today, the space is dominated by hacks without brains. Well maybe I was lucky. They didn’t abuse my parents.

Since that piece, the conversation about 2023 has gained greater momentum, beyond zoning and possible Southern candidates to a full-blown obsession. This reached a peak recently with the prescriptions by former Head of State and President, General Ibrahim Babangida during an interview with Arise TV, ahead of his 80^th birthday on August 17, 2021. I wrote a review of some of his submissions in the context of what marked his 80th birthday: an attempt at revisionism on certain key historical points, but again I got thoroughly abused by one of the key organizers of the IBB white-wash. I have made my point. (See Reuben Abati, “IBB’s Birthday Interview”, ThisDay, August 10, 2021).  The IBB interview, considering his own stature added oxygen to the 2023 Presidential debate. ThisDay newspaper followed up with a front-page list of 31 likely candidates, and a review of those who can lead Nigeria in 2023. I take all of that as a healthy promotion of public conversation. But it merely ended up showing a certain trait that I think can pose a threat to the journey towards 2023: the thinking by some people that the Presidency of Nigeria is already an acquired right. How? When? Where?

One of the immediate reactions to the ThisDay list came from Dr. Doyin Okupe, veteran politician, spokesperson to a political party, the defunct NRC, and media adviser to two former Presidents. Dr. Okupe, appearing on Arise TV Morning Show, said there are only three possible candidates: Senator Bola Tinubu, his good self and incumbent Vice President Yemi Osinbajo in that order. We later hosted Mr. Sonny Iroche, Chairman of the Anambra League of Professionals, who thought that Dr Doyin Okupe must have been joking, and that he, Iroche, would make a better candidate. Before Iroche, Malam Kashim Ibrahim-Imam, President of the Kings College Old Boys Association, and Chairman of the Board of the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) also appeared on the Arise TV flagship show to discuss the state of the nation. He had kind things to say about Tinubu, leader of the APC but he made it clear that he, Kashim-Imam, would be the best man for the job.    

Somehow, within the South West and the APC, every man who considers himself a potential President manages to defer to just one man: Senator Bola Tinubu. Those who say anything that is off-key in that regard or fail to pay homage get knocked no matter how sensible they may sound. This then, reminds me of the case of Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State who has been a target of heavy pummelling for having the effrontery to have told Senator Tinubu in an interview with the Daily Trust newspaper that the senior politician should allow his “children” to take over the Presidency of Nigeria in 2023. Yahaya Bello obviously considers himself a Tinubu “son”. Whereas the leader of the APC has not yet announced formally that he wants to be President, there is already an army of Tinubu Support Groups out there pushing the 2023 Tinubu for President agenda. As far back as May 2021, Governor Bello had announced in a television interview that “Nigerian youths, women and all Nigerians, including very objective elites” were asking him to run for President in 2023. Bello was immediately dismissed by Professor Itse Sagay, SAN, who reminded him that the Presidency in the APC had been zoned to the South, and that being a youth cannot be an automatic qualification.

Indeed, much earlier, Eniola Bello in his ThisDay column – “Yahaya Bello: The Ugly Face of APC” (March 8, 2021) had made even more damning remarks about the Governor. But Yahaya Bello has been resilient in saying he wants to be President.  His latest effort must have been prompted by the renewed debate about age and 2023 Presidential politics. His reported interview in the Daily Trust newspaper of August 22, 2021 is titled “2023: Buhari, Tinubu Pact not Binding on APC Members – Kogi Governor.”  Having confirmed that he would run for President in 2023, Governor Bello said of Tinubu: “Senator Tinubu is one of our leaders and I respect him so much. He has played a very significant role in Nigeria’s democracy and has built a lot of people. He has paid his dues, and with all respect, as a son to him, my simple advice is that it is time for him to allow his children take over the mantle of leadership and do it to the glory of God and his admiration. He should see that those children he raised are now doing well. Let him see how we manage this country in his lifetime. However, he has a right to run, nobody is questioning that. I always urge everybody to respect him for the role he has played in this country’s democracy. He is a man of integrity, to be candid.” He was then asked: “Do you think the APC would survive if Tinubu is denied the party’s ticket and he pulls out with the South West?”  Bello, who says he believes it is the turn of the North Central to produce the next President responds: “You don’t build a house and destroy it. I don’t think he will do that. He has grown past that. As an elder statesman, he will not say that the country should be destroyed in his lifetime, not even after his demise, so I don’t see him doing that.”

These are the words Yahaya Bello said, except he was otherwise misquoted by the Daily Trust newspaper. But for these respectful, almost subservient expressions of admiration for the party leader, and the affirmation of his own future ambitions within the APC, Yahaya Bello has been severely rebuked by the Tinubu Support Group. In a statement signed by the Director-General of the TSG, Umar Ibrahim, Yahaya Bello has been called a “disgrace, a failure and a betrayer.” He is advised to channel his efforts into “begging and praying for forgiveness for all the sufferings you have inflicted on the good people of Kogi State, rather than eyeing the Presidency.” Ibrahim insists that Tinubu is the most qualified person for the Nigerian Presidency in 2023.

I have never met Governor Yahaya Bello personally. I don’t need to. I have in fact been very critical of him: his re-election in 2019, and his many gaffes about COVID-19. But I think he, like every Nigerian, of eligible age, can aspire to the Presidency of Nigeria, and that the rest of us have the right to express an opinion and an interest without being mauled by any group that claims a monopoly of insight about the future of Nigeria. There is nothing that Yahaya Bello has said that was not implied in the Babangida criteria for the 2023 Presidency. Where was the Tinubu Support Group? Why didn’t Umar Ibrahim go after the elder statesman? Given the level of interest that the 2023 Presidency has generated, there would be more persons expressing views. How many views and expressions of interest will the TSG shut down? It may be possible to intimidate persons in the South West and the APC, but there are enough Nigerians who will also lay claim to the Presidency of Nigeria. The Tinubu Support Group does him great disservice. This is a leader who made great sacrifice to promote democracy in Nigeria. He invested a lot in building a generation of leaders. He earned a reputation as a master political strategist. Today, he appears to be surrounded by a group of political vultures and hacks on the question of 2023. Whoever and whatever they may be, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu owes us a duty to call the TSG, as presently constituted, to order. They are damaging his brand. Their campaign should be more focussed on selling his ideas, not motor-park politics.

Going forward, two key questions are pertinent:  Is there a dark horse and a third force in the political space who may emerge as President in 2023? And is there enough time for such an alternative to make any meaningful impact, timing being a major factor in politics? 

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One of the first things I picked up very early in this business of public affairs analysis is something senior colleagues referred to as Afghanistanism. If you were told a column, story or essay, you had submitted for publication reeked of Afghanistanism, it was clearly a subtle kind of condemnation. It meant dabbling into a remote subject that was not of immediate consequence whereas you could have chosen a better topic of greater local value and relevance. In other words, the phrase “Afghanistanism”, was not a compliment.  It was a label for absent-mindedness, an obsession with far-away places and events, sounding eloquent about other people’s issues while overlooking the same problems at one’s doorstep. Afghanistanism was thus projected as a perfect exemplification of parachute journalism. But here we are, at this time, in the past two weeks, and in the past few days, Afghanistanism is now suddenly no longer a flight of fancy. It has become the symbol and the very definition of much that is wrong with our world. It is the news of the moment, not so distant anymore, but a source of worry for the entire world. I guess it is now possible to indulge in Afghanistanism without being accused of an idle journey to distant places.

Over the weekend, Afghanistan imploded. Its President, Ashraf Ghani abandoned the Presidential Palace and fled towards the direction of Tajikistan. The Vice President went in another direction. Security agents including the police and the military dropped their weapons and fled too. Ordinary citizens headed towards every available border to become refugees in neighbouring countries. The United States which had been involved in the politics of Afghanistan since 1999 is also on the run out of the country, as it shuts down its embassy in Kabul, burning down sensitive documents, and rushing to airlift its citizens out of Afghanistan. The British, and NATO soldiers who had both supported the US in Afghanistan, are also on the run. It is an unfolding chaos and tragedy, the exact end of which no one knows, and that is precisely what makes all of this a sad day for the rest of the world. The fate of the people of Afghanistan hangs in the balance. Their future is uncertain. Their government has collapsed. A bunch of radical extremists, terrorists, ideologues and tribal warlords, known as the Taliban, are now in charge. They have taken over the Presidential palace and the entire country. In the 1990s, they were in charge of the country. The people of Afghanistan have just been taken back to the 20^th Century. That country has turned full cycle to the age of fundamentalism, the oppression of women, disdain for education and abuse of human rights. Tragic.  

The crisis in Afghanistan speaks to the failure of American diplomacy and specifically of US foreign policy.  Diplomatic relations between the United States and Afghanistan dates back to 1935. In the course of that relationship, the United States was responsible for setting up in that axis, a bunch of extremists known as the Mujahideen as part of the Cold War with the Soviet Union and China, two countries with which Afghanistan shares borders. The Mujahideen would later become the Taliban. They gained control of Afghanistan. If America thought it was exporting its Western style democracy to Afghanistan, a majorly Muslim country with strong ethnic cleavages, and that the people would adopt American ideology, it was grossly mistaken. The Muslims of Afghanistan were not willing to abandon their religious and ideological beliefs, and many resented the Western way of life. It did not take long before Afghanistan became the home of religious fanaticism and the headquarters of the Al Qaeda. Matters later took a turn for the worse when the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1267 which created the al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee, and the classification of both groups as terrorist groups with sanctions over their funding, travel and activities.

Osama Bin Laden in the face of this rose to the top. In 2001, Ahmad Massoud, commander of the Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban coalition was assassinated by the al-Qaeda, which by then had grown in strength and scope. As it happened, later, on September 9, 2001, terrorists struck in the United States, in the tragedy now known as 9/11. The US and its allies promptly launched a retaliatory offensive: Operation Enduring Freedom, and later, Operation Freedom’s Sentinel against the Al-Qaeda. The Taliban and its totalitarian government fell in the face of this offensive and hence resorted to a guerrilla warfare against the West and the government installed by the US in Afghanistan. Over 2, 400 US soldiers have died in the war against the Taliban. Over 20, 000 were wounded. Washington has spent over a trillion dollars.  The British have also lost over 450 soldiers to the battle. But even with the negotiations over the years, and America’s training of Afghan soldiers to keep the Taliban at bay, the intervention in Afghanistan by the US and NATO has proved futile and unwinnable. With the return of the Taliban to Kabul, the war against terror in Afghanistan has proven to be a colossal failure. America has been humiliated. What we are witnessing is two decades of bad judgment and miscalculations. In July, President Joe Biden boasted that Kabul would not fall and the day would not come when the Taliban will overrun the country. It took the Taliban just ten days to overrun the entire country. America and its allies were overwhelmed.  The now deposed Afghan government and the US have been trading blames. But after the initial denial that this is not another Saigon in South Vietnam, 1975, it is interesting to see American diplomats eating their own words. Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, and other Washington policy wonks, have now come to the realisation that this is a failed mission for the United States as was similarly the case in Vietnam, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, Iraq, and Libya.

America did not need to stay in Afghanistan forever. It is simple and direct logic that the Afghans would have to clean up their own mess, at some point, but the leaders of Afghanistan failed to govern properly, and America’s hasty withdrawal plan was a mistake. America misread the politics of Afghanistan. It underestimated the Taliban. It also overestimated the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF). The US spent loads of dollars training what became known as the Afghan Special Forces. It was thought that they had received enough training to be able to secure their own country against the terrorists. But that was pure fiction. The ANDSF lacked real capability. The Forces were mismanaged by the local authorities. When the Taliban launched an onslaught, the ghost army that the US and other nations thought they had set up took to its heels.  The disaster that has now occurred was long in coming. It was a disaster foretold. In February 2020, the US struck an agreement with the Taliban in Doha. That has failed too, in part because even the Afghan leaders were excluded from it.

The regional warlords who both the US and the Afghan government thought would resist the Taliban did not raise a finger as The Taliban overran the provinces all the way to the Capital. The US thought Pakistan would help. Instead, Pakistan became a sanctuary for the Taliban. The US may well claim in the end that in 20 years it helped to reduce the scope of terror and the growth of terrorism in the world, but the failure in Afghanistan, spanning about four US administrations, looks ironically as a reinforcement of terrorism. The return of the Taliban is bound to embolden terrorist groups across the world. It will grant them confidence and hope that they can also achieve the same kind of triumph. Twenty years later, the US may have lost so much but it is the entire world that is at risk. The thinking that the US and its allies can save humanity, or that any country at all can rely on the omnipresence or the “indispensability” of the United States has been exposed as one of the biggest lies of the century. When it suits its purpose, the US will review its own priorities and it would not matter to the average American taxpayer whether you sink or float.  

And it is at this point that the prompt intervention by Nigerian President, Muhammadu Buhari becomes relevant. In an article published in the Financial Times of London, the same day Kabul fell to the Taliban, Buhari placed his fingers rightly on the threat that the fall of Kabul poses to Africa. He referred to Africa as “the new frontline of global militancy” and called for global action to fight terrorism. He says: “We must not complacently assume that military means alone can defeat the terrorists. If Afghanistan has taught a lesson, it is that although sheer force can blunt terror, its removal can cause the threat to return.” Indeed, there are many lessons to learn from the Afghan debacle. He would go on subsequently to say that “a lack of hope is the chief recruiting sergeant for the continent’s new brand of terrorism.” This commentary was on point in every regard. I am tempted to suspect they just recruited someone with a sharp brain into the Nigerian Presidency. When the President returned from the UK, we were told he and his delegation would go into isolation in line with official regulations. And then from isolation, the President has just signed the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) into law. I digress. The big point about Afghanistan is the need to realise its implications for the global war against terror, US Foreign policy, and the balance of power in the world. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi on Arise TV, analysing the dilemma that the world faces spoke about the “clash of civilizations” (an apt reference to Samuel P. Huntington) and the likely emergence of “a new world order.” But is Africa prepared?  

The failure of US policy in Afghanistan has occurred under the watch of President Joe Biden, even if it is an inherited crisis. Will it affect his rating? Is the average American bothered about whatever happens to the people of Afghanistan? What does the future portend for Afghanistan? The international community would probably make the usual noise about the need to protect human rights and refugees and the rule of law, and perhaps the UN Security Council would threaten to impose sanctions, but in the end, it is only the Afghans that can determine their own future. There is no way the Taliban can overrun Afghanistan, chase away a sitting government and seize power without the people’s tacit compliance. America must learn not to dictate ideological choices to others, in a diverse and complicated world.

As a secondary student, one of the compulsory literature texts that my set read for the West African School Certificate Examination (WASCE) was a book titled Zambia Shall Be Free by Kenneth Kaunda. Our teacher had a funny way of pronouncing Zambia. He would turn Zambia into “Zam-bi-u Shar-lll -Be Friii” by Kerr-nnerthi- Kar uuun dar”. Till today, some of my old classmates in that literature class still refer to Zambia as “Zam-bi-u”. Fond memories of those old days. Kenneth Kaunda, the author of that literature text, in which he documented the independence struggle in his country, died recently at 97. He was Zambia’s President from 1964 – 1991. There have been six Presidents in Zambia since 1964. The seventh was elected this past weekend, August 12, and it was the third time power has shifted peacefully from a ruling party to the opposition since independence. It is unfortunate that Zambia like other African countries gained flag independence from colonial rule, but the dream of concrete freedom articulated by Kaunda and other African leaders has not yet been realised. Zambia in particular has been unfortunate. Rich in copper but poor in leadership. I see the election that was concluded on August 12 as an attempt by Zambians to take back their country. They made a powerful statement about people power. They resolved that Zambians deserve to be free from the grips of corruption, nepotism, neo-colonialism and the forces of retrogression. The just-concluded parliamentary and presidential elections in Zambia offer an indication that the people’s voices and choice should matter most in a democratic process.   

It was a referendum on President Edgar Lungu’s languid leadership. When Lungu succeeded Michael Sata in 2015, he promised to put an end to nepotism and inefficiency. He was hailed as a reformist but he ended up as a hypocrite. As recently as last month, when he went to London for a Global Education Summit, he had three members of his immediate family in his entourage and he shamelessly tried to defend himself. He even forced an amendment of the Constitution to allow him have a third term in office. He is leader of a Pentecostal Assembly with a Ph. D in Theology but he ran Zambia like the chief priest of a local cult. He readily boasts about the infrastructure that he has provided, but Lungu sold the soul of Zambia’s commodity sector to the Chinese. He incurred debts. The country went into recession. Ahead of the August 12 elections, he deployed the military to intimidate the opposition. He shut down the internet. He threatened to jail Hakainde Hichilema, Presidential candidate of the main opposition party, the United Party for National Development (UPND). In 2016, Hichilema lost the Presidential contest to Lungu by a mere 100, 000 votes.

Last week, and as announced yesterday by the Zambian Electoral Commission, this time around, Lungu lost to Hichilema, 1.8 million votes (39%) to 2.8 million votes (59%). The defeated incumbent President is now saying the election was not “free and fair” and that his supporters were intimidated. The same Lungu is condemning an election that he controlled by every means possible. Zambia has a registered voter population of 7 million out of a total population of 19 million citizens. Voter turn-out was 70% on election day, mostly youths who have now sent a strong and clear message that Lungu has overstayed his welcome. Hichilema, 59, has his job cut out for him: to ensure the freedom of Zambia from the forces of neo-colonialism, economic failure, nepotism, cronyism, incompetence, COVID-19, and elite stupidity. Above all, he must learn from the mistakes of Edgar Lungu.  

Guest:

Gbolahan Charles Olojede, Bsc, MBA, ACA. Executive Director, DMA Advisory and Management Services Limited

Topic: The return of toll gates on Federal roads

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General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), Nigeria’s military Head of State, 1985–1993 is arguably the most controversial person to have ever led Nigeria since independence. He turns 80 next week, August 17. Ahead of that birthday, he granted an interview to Arise TV, aired Friday, August 6, which has understandably generated considerable interest.  It has been a while since Nigerians heard directly from IBB. More recent stories about him focussed on speculations about the state of his health. Given the controversial nature of his place in Nigerian history, many also obviously waited for that interview out of curiousity. There have been reactions from different quarters. The most telling reaction for me was someone making the remark that she was pleasantly surprised that IBB is still alive. I was shocked.

She added that no other Nigerian President has been more abused by Nigerians, and if curses could kill, IBB should have been long dead and forgotten. In the wake of the annulment of the 1993 Presidential election by the Babangida junta, activists in the South West rained curses on IBB. Old women stripped themselves naked, based on the general cultural belief that if an old woman curses anyone with her exposed chest, such a person is doomed for life. Hurriedly- made wooden coffins were paraded on the streets of Lagos, and mock funerals were conducted. IBB’s offence was his annulment of the 1993 Presidential election. The lady remarked that her only take-away from the Babangida interview is how God has a way of preserving the wicked. That is the kind of man IBB is. He evokes extreme passions of opposite variety with near-equal intensity. For me, the very idea of the interview alone was useful. Getting IBB to talk at all was an achievement for Arise TV, and a special career moment for Ngozi Alaegbu, the anchor.

At 80, IBB has aged quite well. His faculties remain sharp. He was articulate, and witty as ever. His responses showed maturity and diplomacy, but a closer interrogation reveals that he is still the same foxy manipulator of public perception. Nonetheless, there were parts of the interview that one could easily agree with and others that sounded rather fishy. IBB was right to have complained about how the major problem with Nigeria today is the “tyranny of the elite”. Other countries are able to move forward and achieve more than their potential, and inspire the people to greatness because of a certain elite consensus in that direction and the impact of responsible leadership. But here in Nigeria, “there is a disconnect between leadership and followership” as IBB argues. The people do not trust their leaders. The leaders themselves do not care enough.  IBB blames them for sowing the seeds of disunity in the country. What I did not hear him say is how he is one of the same leaders that he blames.

On the question of the economy, IBB expressed the view that there is too much control in running the economy and that there is need to open it up further. Perhaps he is right. Government tends to ruin every investment it manages by itself in the long run.  He says the Nigerian military is overstretched, and that for Nigeria to make any difference in the war against insecurity, our soldiers need to do more, believe in what they are fighting for, they must be well-trained, well-led and well equipped. He also talked about inconsistency in government policies. Well, that didn’t start today. There are critics who would trace that inconsistency back to the Babangida era. On the state of the Nigerian economy, IBB says the fact that the economy has not collapsed is an indication that the government is working. If the economy were to collapse, we would all be dead, the way we died a little when the Babangida administration introduced the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in the mid-80s. It was also interesting to see the senior citizen defending the supremacy of the rule of law, when he said “nobody should disobey lawful orders in a democracy.” But should anyone do so at all, at any time? Under the Babangida junta, the courts were routinely disobeyed.  IBB is now a democrat defending the rule of law!   

The more common-sensical aspects of his interview should be easier for many Nigerians to deal with, but there were a few controversial points made by the retired General, and elder statesman, which have set the tone for public discourse in the last few days.  He does not consider zoning or rotational Presidency a good idea, rather he defends merit and competence, and that the democratic process must produce a candidate of merit, regardless of where such a candidate comes from. The problem with this is that there are Nigerians whose geographical zone in the country has never produced a Nigerian Head of State since the return to democracy in 1999. They want the Presidency zoned to their own area also, in line with Sections 14(3) and 14(4) of the 1999 Constitution to ensure a sense of common ownership and to allay fears of marginalization. Is IBB aware of the conversation around this? Is he aware of the Igbo agitation for Presidency? Or the position of the 17 Southern Governors in the South who have specifically demanded that the Presidency of Nigeria in 2023 must be zoned to the South? The future of Nigeria depends in part on how the matter of common rights under the law is resolved democratically and not through the mechanism of the tyranny of a minority elite.

He thinks that a “one-party state” cannot happen in Nigeria because Nigerians “will not allow it to happen”. Fact-check:  the country is already drifting towards a one-party state system with the gale of defections from other political parties into the ruling All Progressives Congress, and the looming implosion within the major opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The relevance of the two-party system that IBB recommends as the best option for the country is belied by the crisis in the country’s two major political parties. The view that the various other political parties do not really matter contradicts his other views about the need to practice democracy the way it is done elsewhere.  In the United States, two political parties may be dominant but there are so many other political parties representing the views and beliefs of others, including minority groups and it is the existence of such pluralism and diversity that democracy is all about.  We should understand where General IBB is coming from. He was the architect of a political system that limited Nigeria’s democracy to two political parties: the SDP and the NRC, but that experiment failed because the reduction of Nigeria’s political system to a vague synecdoche: “a little to the left and a little to the right” made it possible for the military and civilian elite to manipulate and violate the people’s will in the 90s. Nigeria is yet to recover.

General IBB struggled to use the interview to defend his legacy and rewrite history, and he made quite a spirited effort in that direction. His repeated references to the importance of democratic rule and the supremacy of the rule of law are at best ironic and revisionist.  He tells us that the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of 1986 was a sound economic policy and that his administration has been proven right. When his attention was drawn to how SAP created problems for the country, his quick response was that “other people took advantage of what we did.” SAP was the beginning of our economic woes and the root of other ills in the Nigerian society. After the introduction of SAP, which was meant to be a life-saving economic policy, Nigeria began a journey towards the precipice. The first major fuel price increase in Nigeria was under SAP in 1988. Three decades later, IBB speaks of SAP so proudly. He can do so because Nigerians tend to forget so easily. We are so tied to the present, and so troubled, memory is a burden. But anyone who lived through the period of the 80s should not forget the SAP riots of 1989. The many, including students and unionist that were murdered in cold blood. The collapse of the education system, and the gradual impoverishment of Nigerians. By the time IBB decided “to step aside” in 1993, Nigeria was no better than an accident victim on life support, with broken limbs.

It is again one of those ironies that IBB can boast that he and other members of his junta were saints compared to the present administration. He talks about how his government fought corruption. “So tell me who is better at fighting corruption?” For the benefit of those who may have forgotten, once upon a time in this country, General Babangida was considered a villain. In fact, the 1989 riot was in part a protest against institutionalised corruption!  It is a sign of how bad things have become since then that the same leader can look straight into our faces and tell us that the epithet, Maradona that was used to describe him was an acknowledgement of his “deft, political moves”. He even laughs at the oxymoronic description of his persona: “the evil genius”: “I marvel at that. The contradiction – you can’t be evil and then a genius.”” To tell ourselves the truth, yes, a genius can be evil in the deployment of his talent, and the corresponding impact. The term “Maradona” referred to his foxy and manipulative tendencies. In the quarter final match between Argentina and England in the 1986 FIFA World Cup, Argentine football genius, Diego Maradona scored a goal with his hand. He later called it “The Hand of God” goal. In these days of VAR technology in soccer, that goal would have been disqualified, but he got away with it. IBB as Nigeria’s leader was infamous for such devious manoeuvres.

But perhaps the most astonishing part of the retired military ruler’s revisionism is his excuse for the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Presidential election. He says “If it materialised, there would have been a coup d’état – which could have been violent. That’s all I can confirm. It didn’t happen thanks to the engineering and the “Maradonic’ way we handled you guys in the society. But that could have given room for more instability in the country.” Afenifere and NADECO chieftains and others have appropriately taken up General Babangida to remind him of the truth. Nigerians elected Bashorun MKO Abiola, as Nigeria’s President. The election was free and fair. For the first time in Nigerian history, a Presidential candidate secured majority votes in virtually every part of the country. It was a truly historic, myth-defying election with a high voter turn-out. But IBB and his friends truncated the process because of the fear of a coup. These were Generals who were master coup planners. IBB was so good at planning coups it was said he had taken part in every coup in Nigeria since July 1966. In 1985, he decided to take charge directly by removing Major-General Muhammadu Buhari from power.

IBB himself would not tolerate any such act of treason and treachery. When his friend, the soldier and poet, General Mamman Vatsa was implicated in a coup against the Babangida administration, IBB got him killed. The same man now tells us, he was afraid of a coup so he annulled a people’s election. He staged a coup against the people of Nigeria. MKO Abiola was his friend too. MKO died in that struggle. And now IBB dances on his grave. And on the graves of many other Nigerians who lost their lives, leaving behind widows, widowers and orphans. If this is meant to be another Maradonic move, it is important to call it out for what it is: cruelty. It would have been better if MKO Abiola had been allowed to claim his mandate. Even if a coup was organised against him, IBB owed him and the people of Nigeria a duty to make that coup impossible. Even if MKO Abiola died in that imaginary coup, it would have been on record that he died in the palace of democracy not in the hands of tyrants. How does IBB feel today, now that Buhari has recognised June 12 and MKO Abiola?

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Today, General IBB is the same man now prescribing criteria for Nigeria’s next President in 2023.  Hear him in his own words: “I have started visualising a good Nigerian leader. He should be a person who travels this country and has friends in every state of the country; a person who is very vast in the economy, a person who is a good politician who is ready to talk to Nigerians. I have seen about three already. The person should be in his 60s and I believe if we get such a person, Nigeria will get it right.” I disagree with his emphasis on an age bracket. It amounts to needless politics of exclusion. The problem with Nigerian leaders is not their biological age. It is the age of their ideas. In the United States, Bill Clinton became President at 47. President Barack Obama at 48. But after Obama, Americans elected Donald Trump, a 71-year old man. Current President Joe Biden came into office at 78.

We need a mixture of every demographic category to move Nigeria forward from the old order to a new place. But IBB is right about the knowledge of economic issues and the need to have a bridge-builder and a nationalist in office. My only worry is that Bashorun MKO Abiola met all the criteria outlined by IBB. In 1993, when he won the Presidential election, MKO was 55. He was also a man who had a great knowledge of the economy having established himself as a global entrepreneur. He was in addition, a Chartered Accountant. He also had friends from all parts of Nigeria and the entire world. No Nigerian before now fits IBB’s criteria better than MKO. As the General turns 80, is his conscience beginning to prick him, hence he recommends a future President in Abiola’s image?      

The story of Abba Kyari, the Deputy Commissioner of Police and erstwhile head of the Nigerian Police Intelligence Response Team speaks to the fate of all men who are overtaken by hubris, that flaw of character from which tragedies have been written from Sophocles to Shakespeare. Every tragic hero or anti-hero soon begins to create illusions of his or her own importance and then soon faces unexpected nemesis. Oedipus in ancient Greek mythology solved the riddle of the Sphinx, but fate caught up with him and he ended up killing his father and he married his own mother. Medea, a woman of extreme jealousy, and pride killed her own children in order to prove a point – one of the earliest feminist figures in classical literature. Agamemnon was King of Argos and also commander of the Greek army, but he was immature, unwise and emotional. This was his undoing.  He was a great warrior but he was impetuous.  Coriolanus, the Roman General could not become Consul in Ancient Rome. He waged war out of vengeance after he had been banished. Consumed by passion and vengeance, he led an assault against Rome. He eventually lost his life.  Julius Caesar was one of the most decorated leaders in ancient Rome, but he became a dictator, evoking the envy and conspiracy of his own associates.

I have taken these examples from classical literature and mythology and from Shakespearean tropes detailing an important aspect of human experience and cultural identity: how glory does not guarantee a happy ending, how man experiences the mystery of suffering in order to learn, how what is called happiness is culturally relative. Modern fictive and interpretive representations have also shown that tragedy is not only for great and well-placed persons, but that all men are flawed, and many have fallen due to hubris, not necessarily fate, but error of judgement, pride, or wrong choices. Managing one’s temptations could be the best protection but then what is life if not the rising and ebbing of the tides of time? Life ends as a comedy for many, but for others, it is a tragedy.

DCP Abba Kyari is facing a tragic moment in his career as a policeman. Like all tragic tales, he would attract the pity of friends, fear among colleagues who may well imagine that they too could suffer the same fate, as well as the empathy of a few. But the majority should draw lessons from his experience. He was arguably the most honoured police officer of his time. They called him the Super Cop. He led the Police Intelligence Unit and was acclaimed for his prowess. He was a celebrity cop too. On one occasion, he was specially recognised by Nigeria’s House of Representatives. Not many police officers in Nigeria have enjoyed such privilege. Given the trajectory of his career, no one would have been surprised if the super cop ended up as Nigeria’s Inspector General of Police. But now all that is ended. Whether Kyari is eventually extradited to face trial in a US District Court or not, the white garment of honour that he once wore has been tainted, soiled, splattered all over with palm oil.  Even if he is cleared of all wrong doings, the perception that he was fingered by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation in a matter of conspiracy to commit electronic fraud and abet criminal behaviour is bad enough. This same officer who used to be the subject of saccharine panegyrics, is now the butt of internet memes. Those who wear immaculate white attires should stay away from retailers of palm oil. The case against Kyari is that he failed to do this.

His nemesis is a certain Ramon Olorunwa Abbas, aka, Ray Hushpuppi, who is now facing a likely jail term of 20 years for engaging in high tech organised crime. Arrested by the FBI in June 2020, Hushpuppi has been singing like a canary and yelping like a puppy.  He identified Abba Kyari as one of his allies, an influential police officer in Nigeria who helped him, Hushpuppi, to arrest one of his gang members with whom he had a dispute over a deal. The FBI in the deposition that was unsealed in court on July 26 provided copious and embarrassing details of conversations between Hushpuppi and the senior police officer.  It is alleged that Kyari sent a bank account number into which money was transferred to take care of “the team” for services rendered. What service? One Kelly Vincent Chibuzor was arrested and detained for more than a month by Abba Kyari’s team. Even when it was discovered that the allegation by Hushpuppi against Chibuzor was incorrect, there was no evidence to indicate that the Super Cop took any step to get Hushpuppi sanctioned for misleading the police and for wasting the time and resources of the Nigerian State. The FBI document further indicates that Super Cop Kyari even visited Hushpuppi in Dubai as a special guest. Since these details became public, Kyari’s strongest defence is that he is completely innocent and that the only connection between him and Hushpuppi is that he helped him to sew some native wears. How on earth did a cop in charge of Nigeria’s Police Intelligence Response Unit become a tailor and fashion consultant to a man of international security interest, who by the way, flaunted obscene wealth on social media pages? Certain associations are not good for a person’s brand. The association with Hushpuppi in any form whatsoever was bad for the senior cop. Hushpuppi knows clearly that he is down. The same way he used the Nigerian Police to “discipline” one of his gang members, he has also shown no scruples in dragging policeman Aba Kyari along with him. Yesterday, matters went further South when the FBI released more information to confirm that Kyari collected N8 million in that hire-a-senior-cop case.

Whatever anyone may say, this is not good either for the country’s image. Ordinarily, Nigeria has been labelled a prolific source of potential or actual fraudsters, even when this same country has produced some of the brightest and accomplished persons in all fields of human endeavour. Few foreigners give us the benefit of the doubt. What has happened to DCP Kyari is also not good for the image of the Nigerian Police. Even before the October 2020, #EndSARS protests, the average Nigerian policeman was routinely criticised for bribe collection, brutality and abuse of human rights. It is for this reason that Kyari may not have too many people out there who are ready to sympathise with him. Since the FBI incident, there have been remarks not just about Kyari but the Nigerian Police Force: how, it is said, Nigerian policemen work with criminals, how they extort money and how any one can hire a police man to violate other people’s rights. Those who have an axe to grind with DCP Kyari have also been all over the social media further rubbing salt into his wounds. When a man is down in this life, there are many who would kick him where it hurts most. Kyari must be wondering what is happening to him. Every tragic hero eventually experiences anagnorisis and catharsis. But it is not always that a tragedy ends as a comedy.

The US District Court of Central California has issued a warrant of arrest for DCP Kyari. But it is not as easy as that. Nigeria is a sovereign state. A court in the United States cannot simply order the arrest of a Nigerian living inside Nigeria, and expect that Nigeria, as a sovereign state would simply hand over the person. The relationship between sovereigns is governed by rules and due process.  Given the weight of the allegations, and the attention the case has generated, the Inspector General of Police has ordered a probe by a 4-man Committee. The Police Service Commission which is responsible for appointments, promotion and discipline within the Police has sent Abba Kyari on suspension. Fair enough. The investigation must be thorough and transparent. Nigeria has every reason to take up this matter with all the seriousness that it deserves. Kyari committed the alleged offence in his privileged position as a Deputy Commissioner of police, and Head of Police Intelligence Response Team. Did he abuse his office as alleged? Did he conspire to commit wire fraud as an officer of the law? The “Team” referred to in the FBI document, who are members of the team? Whose bank account received the N8 million paid by Hushpuppi? Did Kyari and his team violate the Police Code of Conduct, especially with regard to Principles Six and Seven dealing with integrity and conflict of interest? What lessons can the Police itself learn from this in terms of its internal oversight processes and how police officers conduct themselves in society? Those questions would be useful for a reform of the Nigerian Police. There should be no cover up. If DCP Kyari is found guilty, he should be sanctioned accordingly and handed over to the Americans in line with extradition processes. DCP Kyari should have his lawyers on standby. Everything that he represents is at stake.

I find it completely odious however, that there has been a useless attempt to read ethnic and political meanings into Kyari’s travails.  The Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF) was reported in the newspapers yesterday as saying the FBI’s plan to arrest Kyari is “totally unacceptable”, and that “nothing must happen to him”. The AYCF further said “all Nigerians who are truly patriotic should stand behind a man who has made an unrivalled mark on the sands of time by diligently serving his fatherland” … because the FBI’s proposed arrest is “an attempted intimidation of a police officer right inside his independent fatherland”. The statement is credited to Alhaji Yerima Shettima, described as AYCF President. Such drivel coming from anyone at all is shocking! If that doesn’t shock you enough, then consider the more laughable intervention of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN). MACBAN is accusing the US FBI of colluding with some leaders in Southern Nigeria to indict police officer Abba Kyari and the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) of folding its hands and failing to defend “sons of the North who have distinguished themselves in different fields (and) are constantly being persecuted and maligned at the height of their careers.” One Dr. Garus Gololo speaking on behalf of MACBAN added that “The United States is the most dishonest country in the world. What they are doing to Kyari, they did it to Al Gore. Let him stand firmly and defend himself because he is Nigeria’s future Inspector General of Police, and he mustn’t allow himself to be rattled.”

Dr Garus Galolo’s garrulousness on a subject he knows nothing about is absurd. He should shut up. Ethnicity is not the important issue in the Kyari case. The FBI does not care about whether he is from the North or the South. Apparently, the leaders of the NEF are more discerning and that is why they have been silent and watching. Dr Galolo may well be accused of trying to incite cattle breeders against the US and the NEF. The security agencies have a duty to investigate his claims. What has Kyari’s travails got to do with cattle rearing? The AYCF should also be reminded that the FBI is not interested in the dangerous little games we play here in Nigeria with ethnicity. Kyari does not represent the North. He is a police officer being accused of roguish conduct. And that point about some Southern leaders colluding with the FBI: How?

If this would be of any comfort: there was actually a semblance of Federal Character and diversity to the names mentioned in the Hushpuppi/Kyari case. The affidavit sworn to by Andrew John Innocenti, special agent with the FBI mentions the following names: Ramon Olorunwa Abbas (Nigerian/Yoruba), Abdulrahman Imran Juma (Kenyan), Vincent Kelly Chibuzo (Nigerian/probably Igbo);  Abba Alhaji Kyari (Nigerian/ Kanuri),  Rukayat Motunrayo Fashola (Nigerian/Yoruba) and Bolatito Tawakalitu Agbabiaka (Nigerian/Yoruba), all accused of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to engage in money laundering. At paragraphs 23 -30, the investigator identifies Abba Kyari and establishes his connection with Hushpuppi with copious references to phone numbers, conversations, newspaper articles and account numbers. So, where is the collusion with the FBI to ridicule a “Northern star?” But that is Nigeria. We play politics with everything. Instead of focussing on key issues, we reduce everything to ethnic identity. We need to know that when persons conspire to do wrong things, they don’t operate on the basis of their ethnic origins. They are united by a common purpose that is beyond ethnicity or religion. In this matter, a Ramon is caught in the same web with a Vincent and a Rukayat and Tawakalitu. They are united by a different purpose.

This cautionary point is also meant for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The party’s spokesperson has launched an attack on the Buhari administration over the Kyari matter. Must we play politics with everything?  No. It is enough to insist that nothing should be swept under the carpet and that due process must be strictly followed. This is not a Buhari matter. Kyari must answer his father’s name.

There are more lessons. The Nigerian Police can learn a lot from the diligence and professionalism of the US FBI. The depositions were first taken to court in February, again in April, but the contents were only unsealed in July. Nothing leaked. The document did not suddenly vanish from where it was kept. There was no reported case of arson that would have led to the destruction of valuable evidence. The FBI monitored conversations across long distances and gathered evidence.  Young Nigerians for whom the indecent display of wealth is a major attraction should remember the stories of Hushpuppi, Invictus and all such characters and have a glimpse of their own future undoing. Hushpuppi was so popular on Instagram; many young Nigerians wanted to be like him. He wore Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Versace and displayed exotic cars. Today, he is in a lonely place. He is so lonely. He is singing and sinking. Let the law take its full course then. We hear DCP Kyari has been promptly replaced by DCP Tunji Disu as Head of the Police Intelligence Response Team. That’s life. 

“Ore, I looked for you yesterday? Where were you?”

“I dey for house now? Where I for dey?”

“I actually thought you had gone to a court somewhere to do amebo. You know you like to poke-nose into other people’s matters? And yesterday was a special, historic day, with four court cases that generations yet unborn will read about”

“You have started again. You are actually the real Mr. Amebo of Nigeria. Every little thing you are ever-ready like Ever Ready Battery to do chor chor chor. Don’t you ever get tired?”

“Ever Ready Battery. Ha. You don’t forget things. Do they still make such batteries? That was when Nigeria was Nigeria and the manufacturing sector produced so much locally, and people had jobs and the country was prosperous. My uncle used to go to London almost every weekend. Money was not a problem. Nigeria itself was ever ready. But now see see…the country is a shadow of its former self. That is why you have so many angry youths all over the place. They have no sense of values. They have no memory of Nigeria’s greatness. They have been brought up on a diet of Satanic negativity.”

“Ï know. I know. I still hear some people talk about Ever Ready though. But do you know when I tried to look for Ever Ready Batteries the other day, it turned out what they now call ever ready was some sort of aphrosidiac, some kind of herbal concoction that is supposed to increase your libido, result in instant enlargement and give you unimaginable joy of celestial proportions. It was actually a woman that recommended it to me.”

“Ha. A woman. Your battery failed, and they recommended Ever Ready. I know. I know. Nigeria has become a house of sin. You are talking about a multi-billion-dollar business, by the way. From Suruka to Surutu, Kolagbo, Osomo, Koboko, Techno, Monkey Tail. Pasa-Bitters, Erujeje,..”

“Ëx-cu-se me?”

 “Wafekulaleyi, Ali Baba, Wasalaye, Baby Oku, Kick and Start, Oga Nla, Jeko mo, Agbara, Dorobucchi, Opa Eyin, Dadubule, Pakurumo, Bajinotu, 301, Stone, Jabra, Japata, Jakomu….”

“Can you stop? I don’t want to talk about aphrodisiacs and the obsession of Nigerians with sin.”

“That is your problem. It is not every thing that is about big grammar. I am giving you an idea of how Nigeria has failed. How a country that used to produce scientists and intellectuals is now producing a generation of celebrities and heroes who are making billions from selling sex or beer and pleasure. We have become a nation of consumers of all sorts of depravity. We are no longer a nation of producers of ideas or executors of grand schemes. Old money in Nigeria was represented by the productive class. New money is dominated by a generation of consumers, exhibitionists and their mad, bad agents.”

“Look, this man, leave me alone. Whoever wants to drink whatever with their mouths should go ahead and do so. Our only point of agreement is that something terrible has happened to this country, and things could get worse, morally, politically and socially if we do not exercise caution and care. We need to remind ourselves of basic normative values and have a conversation around that.  You see all this your beer parlour, street talk, won’t help.”

“Dey there. Dey there dey form. We are all human beings at the end of the day, I beg. You mean you don’t know that it is the entire world that has gone mad? Humanity has crossed the point of no return. That is why some wealthy men are already planning to relocate to outer space. Elon Musk. Jeff Bezos. When the human planet fails, they will enter their space jets and escape. Na you and me and people like us go remain for this Earth. Our only problem is that we will be stuck in this place called Nigeria, in the midst of rapists, kidnappers, bandits, terrorists, corporate thieves, drug barons, yahoo masters, and vote-riggers.”

“Not even Alvin Toffler was this pessimistic in The Future Wave.”

“Toffee what? Who is that?”

“Never mind. Never mind.  You are not likely to know someone like that. You were talking about court cases before you digressed in your usual manner. You need to see a therapist. What about the courts?”

“I told you there were four major court cases yesterday that were of historic and significant interest, and I wanted to know whether you attended any one of them?”

“Why should I? I told you I was at home. Which cases are these?”

“You don’t mean it? Don’t go and say this in public please. People will think you have a problem.”

“I don’t get it”

“Okay let me help you out because you are too young to have dementia. Yesterday, in Abuja, Nnamdi Kanu’s case came up again at the court of Justice Binta Nyako. He was not produced in court. The security agents did not allow his supporters to even approach the court premises. At a point the Court was even closed. Lawyers were shut out of court. Imagine! His lawyers were not even notified according to due process. There were security men all over the place, harassing journalists and every one. People were arrested.”

“Hen Hen.”

“I thought you would have been there to observe and analyze the situation”

“To get involved in a matter before the court? How? That would be sub judice”

“That is not the issue here. This is a political trial. The issue is self-determination which is recognized under Article 1 of the UN Charter.”

“I am sorry, I can’t discuss this matter with you. Whatever I say will be misinterpreted by an illiterate, rampaging, insecure mob. We have lost the culture of reason and debate in this country. Every one is in their own ethnic capsule. A country that has destroyed its intellectual class is in real danger. This is what has happened to Nigeria. You were looking at Nigeria from the perspective of human libido, I am sorry, the bigger tragedy is the apparent death of ideas and the failure of capacity to think even among the most educated.”

“Who needs education anymore in this country? Just make money. Take aphrodisiacs. Dominate women and men and recruit idiots with all sorts of fake certificates and titles to worship you. That is the new Nigeria. What do you think of self-determination?”

“Ï have nothing against self-determination. It is a universal right recognized under Article 1 of the 1949 UN Charter. Many countries have broken up: India in 1947, Pakistan broke up in 1971 to produce Bangladesh, in 1776, the United States emerged out of the UK, in 1965, Singapore rose out of Malaysia, in 1993, the old Czechoslovakia became two countries: Czech Republic and Slovakia. Sudan and South Sudan used to be one country.”

“So what are you saying?”

“Ï am not saying anything. Read my lips. It is in a neutral mode. The way this country is today, you won’t know what you’d say it will be misinterpreted. That is what I was telling you earlier: the bigger tragedy in Nigeria today is the triumph of intolerance and abnormality. There is a supremacy of the lunatic fringe at work, playing all kinds of games: ethnic, political, cultural and opportunistic. When you say something, they twist it. When you don’t say anything, they put words in your mouth and use that to blackmail you. They are so energetic, the only conclusion you can reach is that this is now a country in the grips of mass psychosis. We need help.”

“So, is that why you didn’t go to Abuja?”

“Ï cannot answer that question. Did you go there yourself? Too many of you want other people to act and speak on your behalf in the public space but you are all busy acting like cowards and paid hacks. Many don’t even have the courage to bear their own father’s names. I am all in support of justice, fairness and due process, but nothing beyond that.”

“But what of Cotonou? Did you follow the court trial of Chief Sunday Adeyemo, popularly known as Sunday Igboho?”

“Yes, I did, as an observer”

“You mean you were there, physically?”

“No”

“Why not?”

“Ï don’t have to be anywhere physically to know what is going on. Every revolution is on television.”

“But you know, I think it is a shame that Nigeria that used to be described as the giant of Africa is now having such domestic issues that every body is now talking about how Kenya got involved in Nigeria’s affairs, and how Republic of Benin, the same Benin that is generally regarded as the 37^th State of Nigeria is now a major factor in Nigerian matters. How are the mighty fallen?”

“Kenya and Benin are sovereign states. They are independent jurisdictions.  I know there are many rich Nigerians who go about boasting that the President of some African countries are their boys and Personal Assistants but it is important to know that at critical moments those same countries will assert themselves as sovereign states.”

“You mean the Republic of Benin next door will disobey the Nigerian government?”

”The last time I checked Kenya and Benin Republic are sovereign states. Nigeria is not in a position to dictate to them. Benin even has a different justice system. Its leaders would rather listen to France, their former colonial masters, certainly not Nigeria.”

“If they misbehave in Benin, common Benin, we can shut down our borders against them.”

“The last time you did, what happened? Did Benin disappear as a country?”

“You are supporting Benin Republic against Nigeria? You are one of the hidden secessionists?”

“I am not going nowhere. I am here. Na inside Nigeria I go live and die. You push me, I push am, na inside Nigeria I go live and die.”

“The more reason you should take a stand.”

“Äre you deaf? This country is becoming very tough. We all have to be very careful”

“The man dies in all who keep silent in the face of tyranny.”

“You try. Too many Nigerians quoting statements they know nothing about.”

“You are professing cowardice. We must take our country back.”

“Why not? Go ahead. Just let me be.”

“With the way you are talking, I am sure you did not even bother to show interest in Baba Ijesha’s case on Monday? The rape case involving the Nollywood actor who was accused of raping an under-aged girl and who is now facing trial?”

“The case is now in court. It is before the judicial system. I don’t support rape or violence of any sort. But why should my going to court be an issue?”

“As a concerned citizen”

“Me?”

“Yes”

“No. Were you there yourself? Marketer of Surutu and Suruka? Is that not the same case where one Babalawo predicted the death of one actress and he, the Babalawo died before the trial began and the actress whose death he predicted was all over the court yesterday?”

“What has that got to do with you?”

“Everything. I am a Christian. I don’t walk near the valley of the shadow of Death. Those Nollywood people, their own matter na aye mo juba.”

“You are just a coward. But how about the fourth case? Yesterday Uduak Akpan, the killer of Iniobong Umoren was arraigned before a State High Court in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State. He pleaded guilty.”

“Am I a spirit? You want me to be in Abuja, Cotonou, Lagos, and Uyo in one day. Look at this way: Inside Buhari’s Nigeria, everything don spoil”

“I hear say him don travel sef. He don go London.”

“Can you see now that you are a bad person? With all the things you have been saying, the man that Nigerians elected as President decided to leave town the same day, and you are asking me to put my head.”

“He went to London for medical check-up and a virtual conference about how these matters can be addressed.”

“Wh-a-at nonsense is that? How can a President go to London for a virtual conference? Don’t we have internet in Nigeria?”

“He is not alone. The President of Malawi also travelled to London with a 10-person delegation for the same virtual conference because the internet in his country is bad...”

“You are not making sense. Okay, me I dey here for Nigeria.”

“Doing what?”

“Keeping safe. Chopping isi ewu. And watching the Olympics”

“Olympics? You think Nigeria can win anything?”

“The Olympics is not about winning. It is about participating and the spirit of being part of it. Team Nigeria does not need to win anything”

“Don’t write them off. It is too early to do so.”

“But the country is not in a winning mode. That is why the other thing I do these days is to watch Big Brother Nigeria Season 6.”

“I thought you used to criticize the programme.”

“Yes. But the kind of girls that are on that programme this time around, e be like say dem get special craze. I need some therapy. Watching them alone calms down my nerves.”

“You see you are also a sinner like the rest of us. You dey watch Abeg and Patricia.”

“I confess, bros. Go see those girls first. Something dey there, no be small.”