Prof. Usman Yusuf is the former executive secretary, National Health Insurance Scheme. In this interview, he talks about developments in Niger republic and how they are impacting neighboring Nigeria.

A window for opportunity for dialogue has been opened with Islamic clerics moving over. Where government efforts are not yielding fruits, do private efforts appear to be indeed paving the way for peaceful resolution?

This window has always been there, it’s just that this government did not explore this window before going the military way; this window has always been there. There is a reason, you never start any negotiation with threats.

The threats have been passed before?

Absolutely, So ECOWAS dropped their last plan on the table, putting threats and saying, “if you don’t do this, we will do this, if you don’t do this, we will do this, then you say let’s talk? No, that’s exactly what is giving them legitimacy in Niger, when they come in to attack us and people are rallying round, even those that did not like him, they are rallying round. So, this clearly shows the inexperience of our president as the chairman of ECOWAS; you do not bring violence upfront, there are lots of avenues and we have seen that.

The ECOWAS, what do you think they should have done, you said that negotiation should have been first, to invite the hunter or send a delegation.

Exactly what the elders in the North are saying because we know the people in Niger, they are our people, they are Zaburumas, they are Hausas, they are Kanuris, they are Fulanis; 53 percent of Nigerieans are Hausas, we have shared not only borders, 7 states in the North share borders with them; 5 out of the 7 northwestern states share borders with them, and Borno and Yobe too. We share heritages of language; we inter marry, we have religions same and all of a sudden both will go to fight them? Of all African nations, Niger has been the most steadfast ally of Nigeria, from the time in memory. Division of that border is just artificial.

In what ways have they aligned with Nigeria?

During the civil war, Gabon and Cote d’ Voire, the same Cote d’ Voire that is pushing to go into Niger, were against Nigeria. France, this same France we were fighting for in Niger were against Nigeria, and there was a treaty 60 years old, between Nigeria and Niger, that Niger should not damp River Niger upstream and in exchange, Nigeria will supply Niger with electricity and it has been cut off, as part of the sanctions, it’s wrong. The president of the federal republic of Nigeria cut the treaty unilaterally without consulting the national assembly. He didn’t have the right and the power to do that; he did that on behalf of ECOWAS. I have said before that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, you are now the president of ECOWAS.

He is the chairman of the summit of heads of states, he’s expected to provide leadership.

Leadership to Nigeria first, his primary responsibility; his primary constituency is Nigeria and Nigerians. Whatever is good for Nigeria should be what is put to the table.

So sometimes I think that perhaps what President Tinubu and ECOWAS are doing is some form of game of brinkmanship, push them to the limit, let the war exercise start, let the troop deployment start, he may not intentionally mean it, so as to force a response.

It’s absolutely wrong, this is what we call blaster, you don’t start a negotiation as a responsible leader and a responsible nation like Nigeria that way. “If you don’t do this, I’ll do this”.

They have joined issues with Nigeria, they have provided support intelligence and they have provided the sale of the Tucano jets.

Don’t talk to me about Tucano, Tucano is another big issue that we shouldn’t be talking about; they provided intelligence; in Agadas, United States has over 1,100 soldiers there, one of the largest drone bases, they are looking over you, maybe they are seeing what we are doing now, they are looking all over the Sahel, or have they ever provided intelligence to Nigeria, our Boko haram, where those Chibok girls are? Those bandits and their movement? They knew. Because one time they came with their helicopter and devastated a band of terrorists and picked one of their hostages and left, and now all of a sudden, they are telling us intelligence. Where have they been all this time?

I am saying it again and again and again, President Bola Ahmed should be very careful and not take us into this Niger, or it is going to be a proxy war between Russia and NATO and it’s going to be bad news for us; we Nigeria, we cannot go to Niger and forcefully, well the people that conducted that coup against Bazoum and his brigade of guards, so we are going to kill all the brigade of guards and pull Bazoum and be there forever.

Now that we have the window as the Islamic clerics for the first time, forcing that commitment from the military coupists to begin negotiations, how do we take advantage of it- ECOWAS, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the chairman

First thing, I said is take that threat of violence off the table, that window has always been there, all he needed was to call people within the North, please go through this channel; he should have done all these consultations before even convening ECOWAS meeting and at the ECOWAS meeting, he will present Nigeria’s position. Nigeria is the biggest power in ECOWAS and it will dictate the narrative, when you go and say when Americans are edging you, go and fight, and you place that on the table, everybody else will accept; well now Ghanaians are saying ”no way”, you’re not coming with us. It’s only Cote d’ Voire that is committing troops and we don’t have the troops for goodness sake, where are you going to get the troops in Nigeria?

Each of the 6 geo-political zones in Nigeria is on fire, you cannot pull troops out of the North west, neither can you pull troops out of the North east, the North central or the South east or the South-South. Where are you going to pull the troops from? South west, the number would be minuscule, where are the troops. And Nigeria is essentially broke, Nigeria is borrowing money to pay salaries, how are you going to fund this. My worry is that the United States or NATO would come and say “we will give you logistics, we will give you air cover, we will give you drone cover, we will give you funding to go and do their Business.” That’s why we are raising our voices, we are not going to allow that, I’ve said it again and again, any war against Niger is essentially waging war against northern Nigeria because we will bear the brunt of this.

Should ECOWAS come in directly or should they encourage the Islamic clerics and use them to further strengthen this opportunity?

It’s not even ECOWAS, its President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his advisers. He’s been poorly advised.

So, should we discard the use of ECOWAS?

Oh yeah ECOWAS, we can do this, thank you very much, drink tea, go home, lets handle this. We are taking care of this.

What should be our minimum demand from the couples? Is it to restore Bazoum?

You cannot enforce that, you had better be able to make good on any threat you make, if you make a threat and you can’t make good on that, you look weak. The Americans say we’ll do this here, they have the capacity to do it. Let’s not be edged to doing America’s bidding. There are a lot of ways to do that, just like we did. What we expect them to do is -take that threat of violence off the table, ease the sanctions. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, you turned off that light, the switch, on a treaty that has been there. Unilaterally, put it back, what this is showing is goodwill, the best we can get is to pressure the junta to come up with a transition timetable as soon as possible, to ease out and allow democratic process to run.

A transition timetable even before previous military governments in Nigeria kept shifting till they perpetrated themselves in office

With the pressure of everybody else, it has been done before. President Obasanjo did it. Before you go even to ECOWAS, here you are, a president who’s barely 9 weeks old, he just recently moved into the villa, he has not even unpacked his bags, he wants to go to war, he doesn’t even have his team; the only people he has are his advisers and the Service chiefs, the Service chiefs have not even got their feet wet. They haven’t even found out what’s wrong in their places and how to make assessment and you’re taking the nation to war.

He has said it is ECOWAS that is taking the action and not himself.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is sitting on that table because he’s the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, without that, he wouldn’t be there. He is responsible as the leader to say “I am going there, wherever you are” ECOWAS, United Nations, AU, you are there to protect the interest of Nigeria.

Should we as good neighbours spanning several decades, try to resolve this matter and engage them bilaterally, rather than multilaterally using ECOWAS; Should the president have said ”let me speak to the coupists directly, Niger republic, bilateral relations framework, ” should that have been an option?

What this is showing exactly is the inexperience of the government in the international scene. What this Niger crisis shows is that he shoots before asking questions. There has been a precedent, a history of Niger going into the coup and even killing a president and Nigeria coming in. Even in 2000, during President Obasanjo’s reign, in 1999, President Manaisara  was shot at the airport, there was a coup. President Obasanjo was just one year old.

ECOWAS did all the meetings and what happened. They said President Obasanjo, because he’s experienced and he had his cabinet, the minister of Foreign affairs was Sule Lamido. They went through the back door and continued negotiations, what happened was that eventually when he was moved from power, there was a transition and Mohammed Tanja became the president.

[Sun]