Celebrations are in order as we savour the near-miss that almost rendered us impecunious. A near miss, indeed. We must never forget how we got there. And, going forward, how can the Tinubu administration tweak the government’s policies and programmes to favour our largely disillusioned people? 

P&ID SHAKEDOWN

Some Nigerian public officials hate their country passionately. If in doubt, check out the details of the international heist called the P&ID scam. A few strategically positioned Nigerians betrayed the trust of the high offices they occupied and literally guided an international corporate bandit to swindle their fatherland. What will some people not do for money!          

Flashback: In January 2010, a Virgin Islands-registered company founded by two Irish business partners, P&ID, signed a Gas Supply and Processing Agreement (GSPA) with Nigeria to develop a processing plant in Calabar, Cross River State capital, but the deal failed in August 2012 and the company sought a $5.96 billion compensation from Nigeria with arbitration proceedings against the country at the London Court of International Arbitration.

In January 2017, the arbitration said Nigeria breached the contract and ordered the country to pay the company $6.6 billion with interest starting from May 2013. Before the verdict, the interest fixed at seven per cent ($1 million daily) had accumulated to $9.6 billion, but which has now accrued interests to $11 billion.

Nigeria, already in the throes of a depressed economy and increasing levels of poverty was supposed to somehow cough up $11 billion to satiate the greed of the Nigerian and foreign conspirators. The director of legal services of the Petroleum ministry was Grace Taiga. She worked on the contract wording and recommended to Alhaji Rilwanu Lukman, the petroleum minister at the time, that he sign a memorandum of understanding with P&ID in 2009. She also officially witnessed his signing of the gas contract the following year.

Under the terms of the agreement, the government would provide wet gas to P&ID for free over 20 years. The two parties would then split the processed resource, with the government using its share to help power the country’s energy grid. But the project never got off the ground. P&ID never built the plant and Nigeria never provided the company with any gas. P&ID blamed the government for the failure and convinced an arbitration panel that it had been wronged.

The panel awarded the company damages equivalent to the total hypothetical profit the company would have made over the lifespan of the contract – $6.6 billion plus interest of $1.3 million per day from the time the contract was breached.

Evidence later emerged that Taiga had received close to $10,000 from individuals and companies linked to P&ID ahead of the contract signing. Before the High Court, Taiga acknowledged having received money but said that these payments were merely gifts from a family friend, P&ID co-founder Michael Quinn. In one document dated October 2017, Cahill recorded a “commitment” of $200,000 to Taiga; in another, dated May 2019, the figure was put at $500,000.

It was also revealed that Adetunji Adebayo, executive chairman of Nigerian gas company, GFD Energy, and middleman for P&ID during settlement negotiations with the government, could be entitled to $1.4 billion. In an affidavit dated May 2022, Cahill wrote that, “Mr Adebayo was promised 10 percent of the income from the arbitration” but added that there was still “a lot of uncertainty around the amount, if any, that will be paid out.”

Mohammed Kuchazi, who as P&ID’s commercial director assisted the firm in its relationship with the petroleum ministry, told the court that he believes himself to be entitled to 3 percent of the award — some $340m — as per an agreement he said he reached with Quinn. Cahill confirmed the existence of that deal in his affidavit. In his own affidavit, Kuchazi wrote that he had been friends with Lukman, the minister, since the 1960s. Kuchazi had been a businessman and politician.

The story of how a small offshore company with no meaningful track record, no website, and only a handful of employees managed to win a multibillion-dollar gas contract in Nigeria must be one of the greatest heists of modern times. Granted that Nigeria has been labelled as the corruption capital of the continent (unfairly, I think), do the 200 million long-suffering citizens of the country deserve the criminals that hold their resources hostage and sentence the people to hunger and want?

Describing the outcome as a victory for Africa, President Bola Tinubu, in a statement released by Ajuri Ngelale, said: “This landmark judgment proves conclusively that nation states will no longer be held hostage by economic conspiracies between private firms and solitarily corrupt officials who conspire to extort and in-debt the very nations they swear to defend and protect,”

“Today’s victory is not for Nigeria alone. It is a victory for our long exploited continent and for the developing world at large, which has for too long been on the receiving end of unjust economic malpractice and overt exploitation.Nigeria is appreciative of the tremendous efforts of the defense team and acknowledges the role of the Federal Ministry of Justice and the Office of the Attorney-General in the process of defending Nigeria’s interest in this case,” the President declared.

NEVER AGAIN!

Congratulations, Nigeria. Having seen how dangerously close the country came to bankruptcy on account of corruption, officials of the current administration probably shouldn’t require a lengthy anti-graft lecture.  But the president and his ministers will do well to keep a close eye on every seemingly ‘routine’ request for presidential or ministerial assent. 

AFFORDABLE FUEL 

The current move by the federal government to encourage the use of autogas is commendable. But there are additional steps that could ease the burden of the people without necessarily picking the pockets of the government. Why can’t we sell crude oil for local consumption to Dangote refineries and the modular refineries in Naira instead of dollars? It is the quest for dollars at the black market rate that jacks up the price of the product. Must we make insane profit at the expense of our people who are the real owners of the oil? The sale of crude oil at international market rate should be reserved for exports. I urge President Tinubu to give this idea a thought.

TRANSFORMING THE PORTS

“According to the sector operators, the cost of exporting 100 tons of cargo in Nigeria is $35,000, compared to $4,000 in Ghana. Today, the leading ports for West Africa are in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin Republic. All these countries have modernised their port management systems, leaving Nigeria far behind”, noted the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr Akinwumi Adesina, last month at a mid-term ministerial performance review retreat 

We should not be decongesting the ports in Nigeria; we should be transforming them, he counselled. He enjoined President Bola Tinubu to purge the port system of such avoidable challenges as administrative bottlenecks and duplication of functions by agencies of government in the ports. This is another possible ‘quick win’ area if the presidential ears were tuned to my frequency.

Have the President’s appointments been fair? Have they been equitable? Some say he has not been fair, equitable and just; especially those who say that he has unduly favoured his Yoruba ethnic group. To buttress their point, they have listed some important and critical appointments which they say have gone the way of Tinubu’s Yoruba ethnic group. Let us take the appointments one after the other, beginning with the office of Chief of Staff, created in 1999 by the then President Olusegun Obasanjo. We have since then had the following as Chief of Staff.  1. Abdullahi Mohammed (Northerner), 29 May, 1999 – 2 June, 2008; 9 years. 2. Relatively-unknown Gbolade Osinowo (South-west), 2 June 2008 – 18 September, 2008; three-and-half months, after which the then President Umaru Yar’Ádua abolished the position. 3. Mike Oghiadomhe (South-South), 17 May, 2010 – 10 February 2014; about 4 years (after President Goodluck Jonathan reinstated the position). 4. Jones Arogbofa (Yoruba), 18 February 2014 – 29 May, 2015; one year, three months. 5. Abba Kyari (Northerner), 27 August 2015 – 17 April, 2022, almost seven years). 6. Ibrahim Gambari (Kwara state/North Central), 13 May, 2020 – 29 May, 2023, three years). So, the North has held the position for 16 years; South-South, 4 years; North-Central, 3 years; South-west, one-and-half years before the current holder of the post, Femi Gbajabiamila, who came into office on 14 June, 2023, less than 5 months ago. My verdict: This appointment by President Tinubu is justified.

Next is the position of the National Security Adviser; WIKIPEDIA described this position as “a senior official in the cabinet of the President of Nigeria who manages national security on behalf of the President and serves as his chief advisor on all matters that are vital to the very survival of the State. The position is a statutory member of the Presidency, National Security Council and the Federal Executive Council. The occupants since 1993 are: 1. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, 2 January 1993 – 30 August, 1993, eight months. 2. Ismaila Gwarzo, 30 August 1993 – 9 June, 1998, about 5 years. 3. Abdullahi Mohammed, 9 June 1998 – 29 May, 1999, 1 year. 4. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, 29 May, 1999 – 1 June, 2006, seven years. 5. Abdullahi Sarki Mukhtar 1 June, 2006 – 8 March, 2010, five years. 6. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, 8 March, 2010 – 18 September, 2010, about six months. 7. Kayode Are (in acting capacity for only two weeks), 18 September, 2010 – 4 October, 2010. 8. President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan broke the North’s monopoly of the position when he appointed Owoye Andrew Azazi (4 October, 2010 – 22 June, 2012), less than two years. 9. The North seized the position again with the appointment of Sambo Dasuki, 22 June, 2012 -13 July, 2015, three years. 10. Babagana Monguno, 13 July, 2015 – 26 June 2023, eight years. The current holder of the position, Nuhu Ribadu, appointed on 26 June, 2023, is also a Northerner. No person of South-west origin has held the position in a substantive position. If President Tinubu appoints a Yoruba man into the office today, there will be an outcry of “Yorubanization” but he will be justified.

Next is the Chief of Army Staff, the undisputed flagship of the Nigerian Armed Forces: The last time a Yoruba (South-west) was Chief of Army Staff (Lt. Gen. Ipoola Alani Akinrinade) was in 1979 – and for only six months! It has been Northerners all the way: Lt. Gen. Gibson Jalo; Lt. Gen. Mohammed Inuwa Wushishi; Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Babangida; Lt. Gen. Sani Abacha; Lt. Gen. Salihu Ibrahim; Lt. Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau; Maj. Gen. Chris Alli; Major-Gen. Alwali Kazir; Lt. Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi; Lt. Gen. Victor Malu; Lt. Gen. Alexander Ogomudia (South-South); Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai; Lt. Gen. Owoye Andrew Azazi (South-South); Lt. Gen. Luka Yusuf; Addulrahman Bello Dambazzau; Lt. Gen.Azubuike Ihejirika (South-East); Lt. Gen. Kenneth Minimah (South-South);  Lt. Gen. Tukur Yusuf Buratai;  Lt. Gen. Ibrahim Attahiru; Lt. Gen. Farouk Yahaya and the incumbent, Lt. Gen. Taoreed Abiodun Lagbaja, who was appointed on 23 June, 2023. Is his appointment justified? 100% justified!

The incumbent Comptroller-General of Customs, Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, is the first Yoruba (South-west) to head the organization in a substantive capacity since its inception despite that the chunk of its revenue comes from the region! The list of the Comptroller-Generals is dominated by Northerners: Shehu Ahmadu Musa; Gen. S. O. G. Ango (Sole Administrator); Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu Mustapha; Jacob Gyang Buba; Hamman Bello Ahmed; Bernard-Shaw Nwadialo; Dikko Inde Abdullahi and retired Army Colonel Hammed Ali. Is Adeniyi’s appointment justified? It is! What of the Nigeria Immigration Service? The current acting Comptroller-General, Caroline Wura-Ola Adepoju, is the first Yoruba (South-west) to occupy the post, though still in an acting capacity. Is her appointment justified? Very, very!

What of the EFCC, founded in 1999 by President Olusegun Obasanjo? The list of appointees into the position of Executive Chairman as well as acting Chairman of the EFCC has been an exclusive preserve of the North: Ibrahim Lamorde (Adamawa), acting Chairman, 2008; Ibrahim Magu (Borno state), Acting Chairman, 2015 – 2020; Mohammed Umar Abba (Kano state), acting Chairman, 2020 – 2021; Abdulkarim Chukkol (from Borno state), acting Chairman (June 2023 – October, 2023). The substantive chairmen are: Nuhu Ribadu (from Adamawa, appointed in 2003 and re-appointed in 2007), Farida Waziri (Benue state), AbdulRasheed Bawa (Kebbi state). The incumbent, Olanipekun Olukoyede, is the first Southerner ever to occupy the position. Is the appointment justified? Super justified!

What of the position of Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, which some people think is their birthright and exclusive preserve? This is the list: Mobolaji Ajose-Adeogun (1976 – 1979); John Jatau Kadiya (1979 – 1982); Iro Abubakar Dan Musa (1982 – 1983); Haliru Dantoro (1983); Mamman Jiya Vatsa (1984 – December 1985); Hamza Abdullahi (1986 – 1989), Gado Nasko (1989 – 1993); Jeremiah Timbut Useni (1993 – 1998); Mamman Kontagora (1998 – 1999); Ibrahim Bunu (1999 – 2001); Mohammed Abba Gana (8 February, 2001 – 17 July, 2003); Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai (17 July, 2003 – 27 July, 2003); Aliyu Modibbo Umar (27 July, 2007 –  29 October, 2008; Bala Mohammed (8 April, 2010 – 29 April, 2015); Mohammed Musa Bello November 2015 – 29 May 2023 and the incumbent, Nyesom Wike, who was appointed on 21 August, 2023. Since the federal capital was moved from Lagos to Abuja on 12 December, 1991, no Southerner has been made its Minister. Is a Southerner’s appointment as the FCT Minister justified? It is!

The incumbent governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, was appointed by President Tinubu on 15 September, 2023. His predecessors are: Roy Pentelow Fenton (24 July, 1958 – 24 July, 1963); Aliyu Mai-Bornu (25 July, 1963 -22 June, 1967); Clement Nyong Isong (15 August, 1967 – 22 September, 1975); Adamu Ciroma (24 September, 1975 -28 June, 1977); Ola Vincent (28 June, 1982 – 30 September, 1993); Paul Agbai Ogwuma (1 October, 1993 – 29 May, 1999); Joseph Oladele Sanusi (29 May, 1999 – 29 May, 2004); Charles Chukwuma Soludo (29 May, 2004 – 29 May, 2009); Sanusi Lamido Aminu Sanusi (3 June, 2009 – 20 February, 2014); Sarah Alade (in acting capacity: 20 February 2014 – 3 June, 2014); Godwin Emefiele (3 June, 2014 – 9 June, 2023); Folashodun Adebisi Shonubi (in acting capacity: 9 June, 2023 – 15 September, 2023). As usual, the North has held the post for 22 years, far more than the other regions of the country. South-South (eight years) but if Emefiele is counted as South-South and you add his nine years, then, South-South shoots up to 17 years! South-west 10 years plus seven months in acting capacity and the South-East, 11 years; but if Emefiele is treated as Igbo and you add his nine years, then the South-east moves up to 20 years, next to the North! In view of these statistics, is Tinubu’s appointment of Cardoso as CBN governor justified? It is!

The Minister of Finance is another example of Yorubanization being pointed at. Let’s look at the statistics: Wale Edun is the incumbent, appointed by President Tinubu on 16 August, 2023. Since the Fourth Republic began in 1999, it has been Adamu Ciroma (Yobe State), 1999 -2003; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Delta State), 2003 – 2006; Nenadi Usman (Kaduna State), 2006 – 2007; Shamsuddeen Usman (Kano State), 2007 – 2009; Mansur Mukhtar (Borno State), 2009 – 2010; Olusegun Aganga (Ekiti State), 2010 – 2011); Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Delta State) 2011 -2015; Kemi Adeosun (Ogun State), 2015 – 2018; and Zainab Ahmed (Kaduna State) 2018 – 2023. Recall that Adeosun’s tenure was truncated as a result of the controversy over her NYSC discharge certificate and as if Buhari and the cabals around him were waiting for that to happen, the position was quickly given to one of their own! It remains to be seen whether the Yoruba, who led the bandwagon of those who roasted Adeosun, have learnt any lesson! The South-west has done only about five years, less than what Okonjo-Iweala alone chalked up for Delta and Zainab Ahmed for the North! Is the appointment of Edun as Finance Minister justified? It is!

I can go on and on! For instance, no one from the South-west has been the INEC chairman since 1999. The list is:  Ephraim Akpata (1998 – 2000); Abel Guobadia (2000 – 2005); Maurice Iwu (2005 – 2010); Atahiru Jega (2010 – 2015); and the incumbent, Mahmood Yakubu, in office since 2015. Is it not only just, fair and equitable for the next INEC chairman to come from Yoruba land? There are countless other important offices, agencies and parastatals of the Federal Government (Code of Conduct Bureau, Code of Conduct Tribunal, among others) where Southerners, and specifically the South-west/Yoruba, have been marginalized for ages.

Not only can we not wish away Prof. Richard Joseph’s theory of prebendal politics in Nigeria, a federal state such as Nigeria must also ensure that no section is marginalized to the point that succession becomes an enticing option. That is what the agitation for Biafra and Yoruba Nation tells us. Nigeria’s minority groups, too, have their grievances; one of which is the erroneous assumption, always, that only the major ethnic groups matter. Some of President Tinubu’s appointments have been sensitive to the need to change that narrative. A few examples: The Chief of Defence Staff is General Christopher Gwabin Musa, from the minority Zangon Kataf of southern Kaduna State. We have not forgotten the controversy generated when Vice-Admiral Emmanuel Ogalla was named the Chief of Naval Staff, with some Igbo leaders saying he did not come from “mainstream” Igbo! George Akume, appointed Secretary to the Government of the Federation by President Tinubu, is a minority from Benue State. There are so many other such appointments which, in my mind, were directed at correcting the injustices of the past.

But all said and done, is the President infallible or can he please everyone? No mortal can! That is the wisdom in Chief Commander Ebenezer Obey’s evergreen song titled “Ketekete” (The Horse, The Man and The Son)!

Former Guinean dictator Moussa Dadis Camara was on Saturday taken from prison by a heavily armed commando during an operation that sparked heavy gunfire in the capital Conakry, a minister and lawyers say.

At least two other former officials currently on trial alongside Dadis Camara over a 2009 massacre during his presidency were also taken from the central prison, they said.

Justice Minister Aphonese Charles Wright said that at around 0500 GMT “heavily armed men” burst into the prison and “managed to leave with four (prisoners)… notably Captain Moussa Dadis Camara”.

He said that the borders had been closed.

It was unclear whether Dadis Camara had escaped of his own free will.

However, the army described the operation as an attempt to “sabotage” government reforms and swore its “unwavering commitment” to the current authorities.

A judicial source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the masked and heavily armed soldiers who arrived at the prison declared they “had come to free Captain Dadis Camara”.

Inside, the group headed towards the former leader’s cell, appearing to already know its location, the source said.

Dadis Camara’s lawyer Jocamey Haba told AFP he believed his client had been “kidnapped” and his life was “in danger”.

[NaijaNews]

Arab countries have demanded an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, but the US warns this would allow Hamas to regroup

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met leaders from Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan in Amman – as he pushed for humanitarian pauses in the fighting

But Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be no temporary ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza until all Israeli hostages are released.

Earlier, a US envoy said 350,000-400,000 people remain in northern Gaza, which Israel has warned civilians to leave

The Israeli military is also carrying out strikes in the south and the UN says no part of Gaza is safe.

Mark Regev, an adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has told the UK’s Channel 4 news that Israel believes that Hamas has “established its command and control” centre under the Al-Shifa hospital.

Israel has previously claimed that Hamas is using the population in Gaza as human shields by placing part of its military system under civilian infrastructure.

The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza has said at least 13 people have been killed in a blast outside that hospital – Gaza City’s biggest.

The Israeli military has confirmed it struck an ambulance that it says was being used by Hamas operatives. It did not say where the air strike took place.

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi called for all sides to work together to “stop a catastrophe that will haunt the region for generations”.

He made the call during his joint news conference in Amman with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry.

He said: “I think we need to remind each other of our humanity. I think we need to accept that killing more people will not bring [back] those who are lost on both sides, as tragic as the loss is.

“I think we need to all emphasise that everything we can do to save one more life is imperative upon all of us.”

He added: “As human beings, we just cannot accept to see all that killing unfolding, to see all that reduction of life…How can we justify to anybody that killing 9,000 people, killing 3,700 children, destroying 150,000 houses, destroying hospitals – how can we justify that this is self-defence?”

Safadi warned that the war “is going to push us all again into the abyss of hatred and dehumanisation that will make killing even more acceptable. That needs to stop.”

(BBC)

Now that the fear of the Supreme Court is gone for the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration, this seems to be the right time for the President to fix the chaos that has taken some steam out of the awesomeness that is usually inherent in presidential palace.

Doubtless, there have been too frequent dissonance and crisis of coherence in the office of the president. And this is not good for reputation management. It is too early for his reputation managers to be running around to control damage that can be quite challenging in this digital media age when information travels at the speed of light. It is Nigeria’s presidency and we have a responsibility to counsel for its stability before it is too late.

Besides, it is not too early to claim that the president’s men are not collating the groundswell of opinion on how to fix the presidential bureaucracy and the public sector. This is about twenty-five years of unbroken democracy and the institutions of governance including the presidential bureaucracy that should set the tone for efficient management of the public service, shouldn’t be this wobbly and brittle. This column has since 2016 contained more than twenty contextual commentaries on the expediency of a strong presidential bureaucracy.

The bureaucracy of the presidency organically comprises the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, the office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation and the Office of the Chairman of the Federal Civil Service Commission. These three offices are creations of the Constitution of Nigeria. The Obasanjo administration disrupted the presidential bureaucracy when he added the office of Chief of Staff to the President, as part of the personal staff to the president. The Yar’Adua administration (2007-2010) scrapped the Chief of Staff post while President Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2011-2015) reinstated it and the office exists till the present.

So the presidential bureaucracy today exists with the office of Chief of Staff and the officer (CoS-P) can artfully hijack the presidential bureaucracy with or without the consent of the president. This is where the dissonance that can set off a chaotic bureaucracy in the office of the president occurs. In the last administration of President Buhari, for instance, there were instances when the Chief of Staff signed letters of even transfer of a Permanent Secretary, instead of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation. Just as we have seen in the current administration whereby the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity has been announcing presidential appointments without details of the appointees: This is the remit of the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, who is the Secretary to the Cabinet Council, Head of the Cabinet Secretariat and Secretary to the Security and Defence Council.

There are seven offices headed by permanent secretaries in the SGF’s office. These offices include Special Services Office (SSO) with a responsibility for managing the bureaucracy of defence and security services of the federation. The SSA Media’s office since the Buhari administration, has been usurping the duties of the Minister of Information too. This has been due to the curious chaos in the presidential bureaucracy that lost its mojo during the post Yar’Adua administration when a politician who had no solid civil service background was appointed to the office of SGF. This is the origin of the current chaos and present and clear danger to the polity.

What is more curious, why has the presidential bureaucracy become so ordinary to the extent that the President had to announce directly the ban of his son, among other non-members of the Executive Council from the Council Chamber? How did the strangers stray into the Federal Executive Council Chambers? What happened to organisational efficiency in the office of the SGF and indeed the presidential bureaucracy? What is responsible for embarrassing withdrawal of appointments of people into the federal public service these days? Ministerial nominees and even nominees to the Federal Civil Service Commission have been withdrawn. Who supervised the budget details of the controversial N5b worth of Presidential Yacht in the noisy N2.2 trillion worth of supplementary budget? How did the office of the First Lady surface in the purchase of SUVs for the office of the President? How did it take a Senator to tell Nigerians that the Yacht had been paid for before the outcry? Was the Navy unaware of the delivery without payment that would have been explained before the Senator Ndume’s revelation? Where was Senator Ndume too when the National Assembly was talking of transfer of the Yacht’s N5 billion vote to the Students Loan subhead? When did the office of the President know about the controversial Yacht? Where were the concerned ministers and presidential bureaucrats when the details of the supplementary budget were being prepared?

The SGF should be made to take back his office and remit as head of the presidential bureaucracy before it is too late. These challenges would have been avoided if they had been listening to and reading suggestions from those who have retired from the public service that once worked. One of such suggestions, for instance, came through an article in The Guardian barely two months ago by a retired federal Permanent Secretary who once worked in the office of the SGF and was the pioneer Director General of the Bureau of Public Service Reform (BPSR), Dr Goke Adegoroye. Here are excerpts from the classic he wrote on the federal and presidential bureaucracy titled: ‘Too Early To Say We Are Losing It: But Can The Bureaucracy Come To The Rescue?’

‘…From several people across social, economic and religious strata within my own ethnic group, all solid and passionate supporters of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu including those who before he was sworn in are so close to him personally as not to require a notice to see him, the one common thread opening their conversation in the last three weeks, be it on telephone or when we meet, after the titular salutation courtesy of Egbon, Bros, Doctor, Awe (buddy) in palpably worrisome tone is: “we are losing it”! This is in direct contradiction to the euphoria of the first week after swearing in with courageous and far-reaching policy decisions that were commended by most Nigerians, the international community and, indeed, politicians across party lines.
While acknowledging the challenge of the Niger Coup to his administration at this early stage of his presidency and are able to wave aside the complaints of those who claimed to have worked for his success at the last election but are now sidelined, they seem worried by two main issues, namely:
media posts alleging payment of huge sums of money to key individuals around the President to influence appointment into political offices and/or facilitate meetings with the President; and
the new cabinet in terms of its size and composition. They point to the geo-political distribution of the portfolios as smacking of a reverse replay of what we accused the last President of, and the non-fulfilment of the promise publicly made to Malam Nasir el Rufai as both not reflecting the true Yoruba spirit.

Their “we are losing it” outburst, is driven by a sense of collective responsibility and it exudes their true Yorubaness as Omoluabi who want fairness for all, the fear that their expectation of a magic wand by the President is becoming a mirage, and the urgency of a reassurance to the populace as an imperative.
It has become my lot to embark on a well calculated gerrymandering to reassure them that things will begin to fall into place very soon. They all assume that as a former top civil servant living in Abuja and with working experience in the Presidency, I must be one of those advising the team of PBAT behind the scenes and as such should be aware of what’s going on. Yet I am at sea myself in finding a solid base to anchor the many theses of reassurance that I have been carefully offloading on them on a regular basis, as I am equally worried that the firm steps that are required to stem the tide might be gradually slipping away.

New Appointments and Deployments Demand Acculturation:
Anywhere in the world, the swearing in of a new President and his Deputy entails new appointments of many aides, political office holders in executive positions and cabinet members, based on careful screening and selection processes. Because these aides and other political appointees are coming from diverse backgrounds, systems and terrains, manifestation of effectiveness and efficiency at their new duty posts is a function of not just the induction protocols they have been taken through but how soon such inductions have been made to take place, ideally before but not later than a couple of weeks after taking office. Otherwise, their entry into the system could lead to other challenges requiring strong efforts to tackle.

In my address at the public presentation of my twin-volume book – Restoring Good Governance in Nigeria at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Abuja, Thursday, 25 June, 2015, under the title: Of Indigenous Species and the Threat of Invasive Species as the rationale for the books, I stated that “In the absence of careful selection and systematic introduction protocols, there is the danger of introducing species that can become systematically destructive and a threat to the survival of the native populations in the eco-system”. And that “this usually happens when such species are introduced at the top bureaucratic and/or political office holder levels where they are calling the shots and can deploy their own strains of practices, procedures and behaviours in carrying out their responsibilities”.

Induction training and protocols are an important and indispensable tool of human resources management. With the return to democratic governance in 1999, it was the first step taken by the Obasanjo Administration. Indeed, so crucial did he consider it that he made it to commence within a week after inauguration, with sitting permanent secretaries and key persons from outside the bureaucracy that he had considered as potential Ministers, Special Advisers, Senior Special Assistants etc as the participants. It was from the Induction that he was able to off-load some perm secs and make up his mind on his choice of Ministers and Advisers in certain States. Professor Adebayo Adedeji, now late, was the principal Facilitator. That Induction for political office holders lasted 10 days. It was subsequently extended to the Directorate level officers GL 17, 16 & 15 as a 2-week course that spanned 20 editions, commencing under Abu Obe and concluded under Yayale Ahmed as Head of the Civil Service of the Federation. I was the chairman of the team that synthesized the proceedings of the 20 editions into a single Report for the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation for presentation to the President. The establishment of the Bureau of Public Service Reforms is one of the outcomes of that series of Induction Course.

Continue to read the article through this link:
https://guardian.ng/politics/too-early-to-say-we-are-losing-it-but-can-the-bureaucracy-come-to-the-rescue/
You can see why the Tinubu’s presidential bureaucracy that is crisis-prone at the moment needs to be rejigged to wake up to its responsibility before it is too late!

The Speaker of the Ondo State House of Assembly, Olamide Oladiji, has said Deputy Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa is not yet ready for genuine reconciliation to warrant quashing the impeachment saga between him and the state legislators.

Oladiji, who disclosed this in Akure, the state capital, at the weekend, said Aiyedatiwa was yet to withdraw the cases against the Assembly as earlier agreed during a meeting with the national leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

A few weeks ago, Aiyedatiwa had approached the court to halt impeachment proceedings against him following allegations of gross misconduct levelled against him by the Assembly.

“The reconciliation process has to start with the deputy governor. He is the one who took us to court; we cannot reconcile ourselves when we have cases in court.

“Let him go to court and withdraw all these cases; then we would know that we are now in for genuine reconciliation.

“As far as the House of Assembly is concerned, we are not doing anything. The cases are in court and we would follow due process; we are following up on the cases in court.”

On the purported division among members of the Assembly, Oladiji described it as false.

He stated: “When there is a political tussle like this, there can be insinuations and rumours, but in the House of Assembly, we are together. We told ourselves that it is an institution, and the institution must be protected. So, we are together.”

[DailyPost]

In June 2023, a Nigerian student, Ifeoma Amuche who emerged as the best-graduating student out of 9,500 students at the South West University, Chongqing, China was selected to make a speech on behalf of all the international students. In many countries in the world, the story of academic excellence by Nigerian students has been the same.

One would have thought that such a country of brilliant scholars ought to have been in the lead in the evolution of development strategies. But that has not been the fate of Nigeria, her enormous natural endowments notwithstanding. The country remains largely uneducated with her huge resources deployed to meet the prodigious needs of her political and elite class, many of whom have dubious credentials and sundry claims.

Recently, opponents of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu succeeded in publicising allegations of forgery of documents against him, but controversies around Nigerian leaders can hardly be limited to the current president. His predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari had his own share of allegations of fake credentials. In 2015, the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) raised an issue over the non-availability of Buhari’s secondary school certificate.

The nation was shocked that Buhari’s claim that his certificates were in the custody of the army was formally refuted by the latter fuelling speculations that the former general did not possess the basic qualification for contesting the presidential elections. Goodluck Jonathan who served as president before Buhari was also accused of a false claim of having a doctorate.

In the legislature, members of the upper house of the national assembly removed senate president Evan Enwerem from office in 1999, after a local magazine accused him of perjury about his age and schools attended. The speaker of the lower house of representatives, Salisu Buhari was similarly removed for claiming to have a bachelor’s degree from the University of Toronto, when actually what he obtained was a diploma.

His colleagues had in addition, claimed that he was also kicked out of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, after faking entry credentials. Dimeji Bankole who was Speaker of the same house from 2007 to 2011 was accused of not completing his National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) and was therefore rumoured to have submitted fake discharge documents.

Whereas the judiciary was probably the last place where Nigerians expected to hear of any allegations of forgery or falsification of records, there was an amusing controversy around the qualifications of a former Chief Justice of the federation, Muhammed Tanko. It was Tanko himself who gave the social media the lead when he said in 2019 that vicious termites destroyed his primary school certificate. The revelation by Tanko was contained in an affidavit he presented during his senate confirmation in which he said that the termites invaded his home in Bauchi State in 1998 and devoured all documents inside beyond recovery. He was indeed quoted to have said that “no portion of the certificate was salvaged.”

State governors have also been accused of possessing fraudulent certificates, but some had their allegations dismissed in court. The case of forged secondary school certificate against Bello Masari former governor of Katsina state was dismissed by the Supreme Court. In case of Ademola Adeleke who now serves as governor of Osun state, the Court of Appeal said it was satisfied that Adeleke possessed the requisite educational qualifications to contest the governorship election.

A similar case against governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq of Kwara State was discontinued by the petitioner. Allegations against former Delta governors, James Ibori and Ifeanyi Okowa were not sustained much beyond media reports. The court however disallowed Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, deputy governor-elect of Bayelsa State from holding office on account of allegations against him.

Allegations of fake certificates were also made against technocrats and leaders in the bureaucracy.  A few years back, Nigeria’s Customs Service faced a huge certificate scandal as two Deputy Comptrollers General (DCG) and one Assistant Comptroller General (ACG) were said to have entered into the service without having the qualifications they claimed to possess. The management of the service which was then headed by Col Hameed Ali reportedly made strenuous efforts to resolve the matter internally which the media said included asking the affected officers to resign honourably. Much earlier in 2009, the former Customs CG, Alhaji Abdulahi Dikko was accused of forging his certificates.

Perhaps the more intriguing cases of recent concern leaders who allegedly forged their NYSC certificates. While former speaker DimejiBankole absolved himself from blame concerning the accusation of holding an undeserved discharge certificate by publicising his certificate, place of primary assignment and photos with his colleagues in NYSC uniforms, many others didn’t acquit themselves. For example, in 2017, the Supreme Court affirmed that Christian Abah, a member of the House of Representatives representing Ado/Okpokwu/Ogbadigbo Federal Constituency in Benue State

forged the Ordinary National Diploma (OND) certificate purportedly issued in 1985 by the Federal Polytechnic, Mubi, Adamawa State. The cases of former minister, Stella Oduah as well asministers Hannatu Musawa and Tunji-Ojo are yet to be concluded.  

From the above, it is obvious that although a few Nigerian leaders have successfully defended allegations of fake or forged certificates against them, it is obvious that there are too many Nigerian leaders with questionable credentials. Whereas it is also true that some of the allegations are either frivolous or fabricated by political opponents, it is time to call attention to the large number of unacceptable persons with dirty backgrounds in several leadership positions across the board in Nigeria. It is practically impossible for a nation to make sustainable progress if its leaders fraudulently attained their positions. Apart from their incapacity to be pragmatic in formulating public policies of national development, the continued stay of such frauds in office sends a dangerous signal to the youth and posterity.  

Important organs and institutions of society must wake up to their responsibilities to curb the menace.  The media for instance must redouble its efforts to use its pervasive organs of mass communication to illuminate reports on fraudulent leaders. For this to succeed, the nation must be ready to condemn leaders who deploy security and law enforcement agencies to silent media professionals. The media itself must recognize that it is not enough to publicise reports on leaders with fake credentials, such reports must be followed continuously until they make the desired impact. This is what is known as the theory of force multiplication which enables the agenda set by the media to stick.

Another societal institution which can help stem the tide of fake leaders is the judiciary- an institution generally expected to be the last hope of the common man but which has in the last few years become too old-fashioned and unadventurous to serve as an instrument of change for development. Apart from several stories of how judges save their indicted colleagues especially in matters of corruption, the judiciary has become a technical device for covering up unwholesome political behaviour.

Each time an allegation is made against a leader, the judiciary often uses technicalities to save the leader without offering society any opportunity to stop the alleged misdemeanour. If a citizen allegedly stole public funds or presented fake credentials, all the people hear is that the case was brought by the wrong person or at the wrong time or through the wrong method. That approach may meet court rules and save an indicted person but it will never dissuade bad behaviour as people with huge resources can always escape through the transparent technical safety valves in our courts.

The point to be made is that the Nigerian judiciary appears to work for only litigants, while abandoning its responsibility to the society at large. Again, the judiciary has not been consistent with its pronouncements making it hard for people to know when an issue is right or wrong. The other day, the NYSC Director General testified that the discharge certificate in the possession of the Enugu State governor was fake. Many had thought that the decision in the case would follow that of governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo state in which the courts held that the testimony of the issuing authority- the University of Ibadan could not be controverted. Our courts must momentously help to purge society of undesirable elements.

As a political destination, Rivers State never ceases to excite and intrigue. It is capable of infinite political possibilities and great drama. In just one day this past week, the state gravitated from order to near anarchy and back into tenuous normalcy. Any one who has studied its political history in recent times will testify to this curious habit of political brinkmanship and perennial existential uncertainty.

On Tuesday, the state degenerated into near anarchy. A mysterious fire at the state House of Assembly necessitated a site visit by the Governor, Mr. Siminalayi Fubara. Instead of the usual fanfare that usually accompanies gubernatorial visits,  the governor met a rude shock. He met a mob of thugs and irate policemen. He was greeted with tear gas smoke and water cannons. One report said a police personnel may have fired live shots in the direction of the governor. The governor later alleged the shot was fired at him. In the confusion, it was uncertain whose thugs and mobs were in charge at the troubled House of Assembly. The larger Port Harcourt city did not fare any better as street mobs quickly built up as rival protests took to the streets in solidarity with their choice of patrons and principals.

It has since been revealed that that the political division at the bottom of the confusion is essentially that between the incumbent governor and  his immediate past predecessor, Mr. Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory(FCT).

As yet, no one knows the exact bone of contention but from all that has been revealed, there seems to be a disagreement between Mr. Wike and Mr. Fubara whom he )Wike) supported into office. There is the usual hearsay about control of the state government and other big money related issues  that are not yet supported by concrete evidence.

In the interim, order and governance in the state have been disrupted.  There have been moves and counter moves by state legislators to change the leadership of the state House of Assembly with the aim of either effecting an impeachment of the governor or obstructing same.

In just one day of confusion,  protests and brawls, the political countenance of the state had become disfigured. There was a clear and a speedy descent into lawlessness and anarchy. A governor was struggling for political survival. A state legislature  battled to find coherence and continued relevance. The state administration was in coma as the people were torn between joining the swelling street mobs and going on with their lives. It was at this point that the gladiators behind the fast descent into anarchy took off their masks.

Governor Fubara and his supporters have since openly accused Mr. Nyesom Wike of being behind the attempted ‘coup’ to oust a governor who has spent less than six months in office.  Mr. Wike, a man not known for hiding his political gloves, stepped forward literally to own the crisis. He has since disclosed that he is out to protect and defend his political base.

A cross section of Rivers elders worked the phones to get Mr. Wike and the governor to call a truce while they looked into the crisis. On his part, President Bola Tinubu summoned the two men to Aso Rock to cobble some appearance of a resolution. A combination of presidential intervention and the gravity of Rivers elders has restored some semblance of peace. The hope is that the governor may not be impeached just yet.  But the lines of the battle have been clearly defined.

This week’s brief rehearsal in anarchy is familiar in Rivers State. A similar face off took place nine years ago at precisely the same location, the state House of Assembly. In the run up to the 2015 presidential elections, rival political forces  broke into an open weaponized brawl in the chambers of the State House of Assembly. Rival groups of legislators hurled chairs at each other. Some thugs invited themselves into what became a free for all fight. A faction of the police was on hand but in a partisan anti-governor formation. A few heads were broken, some ribs cracked and lungs filled with tear gas. 

That earlier face off was between forces based in Abuja, namely Mr. Nyesom Wike, then Minister of State for Education, actively supported by then First Lady, Patience Jonathan, had perfected a plot to impeach then governor, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi. All hell was let loose but the face off took the state government as its prime casualty.

The anarchic situation persisted until after the elections which saw Mr. Wike as the successor governor to Mr. Rotimi Amaechi in the state. Amaechi moved up to join the Buhari wagon at the federal level while Mr. Wike assumed the throne as virtual Emperor of Rivers State. His rule and reign lasted the whole of eight years during which his word was the only law in the state. He proceeded to bluff, abuse, insult and generally lord it over the entire Rivers population unchallenged.

Nearly a decade afterwards, the pattern of alignments and conflicting allegiances may be different. The key dramatis personae may have altered slightly. Only two constants remain. Mr. Nyesom Wike remains a key player. His controversial method of gunboat ‘shoot at sight’ politics is the playbook of choice. His imperial disposition is the dominant political method and philosophy.  No political space is enough to accommodate Mr. Wike and anyone else. It is him and him alone with barely enough room for his minions and his orchestra of praise singers.

The impact on the administration and security of the state remains largely the same. A government method devoid of accountability, dialogue and camaraderie is the vogue. In this emerging imperial school of government and politics, there is only one mode of communication: a long boring monologue of imperial pronouncements and undigested howls from the throne. This is imperial politics in open  display under the guise of a democracy.

Beneath the prosaic drama of what transpired in Rivers in the week, certain inconvenient truths have emerged. Governor Fubara is embattled by Mr. Wike’s suffocating embrace as his political Godfather. On his part, Mr. Wike sees Fubara’s gasp for fresh air as an unhappy sign of a Godson who is likely to jump ship. And Mr. Fubara is not your normal political surrogate in terms of credentials. Before Mr. Wike shoe-horned him into the Government House in Port Harcourt, he was the State’s Accountant-General. He was the custodian of state finances for the eight years that Mr. Wike was imperial governor of Rivers State.

Now having lost his gubernatorial immunity, Mr. Wike desperately needs Mr. Fubara’s support to sleep better at night. His nervousness in the present circumstances is therefore understandable.

He has let it be known that he is primarily concerned about the security of his political base. This fear is indeed founded on clear and present vulnerabilities.

Love him or hate him, Mr. Nyesom Wike is a totalitarian politician. He leaves his adversaries no elbow room or accommodation. He has used his scorched earth political method to take total control of the Rivers state political landscape.

Although a member of the opposition PDP, Mr. Wike has used his political sagacity to straddle the terrains of both his own party and the ruling APC. He installed the governor, controls majority of the state House of Assembly, produced all three senators representing the state, produced most of the six House of Representatives members representing the state in Abuja. He controls all chairmen and majority councilors of all 23 local governments in the state. This is clearly an expansive and impressive political empire and base.

In some fairness, any single political actor who is able to gain such total control of the political machinery of an entire state deserves some acknowledgment. Politics is first local! We may not like Mr. Wike’s uncouth methods or his undemocratic ways. But he seems to speak  the Nigerian political language that connects to his  constituency. He is Machiavellian in a rather crude sense of placing the end on the negotiating table before unleashing the crude means at his disposal. He has a clear definition of his political ends and deploys whatever is available to achieve that end. The end begins and ends from one point: Nyesom Wike. Other politicians with a moral slant may find him and his methods unusual and devilish but it works for him. He insists he is a politicians, not a clergyman though the son of an active Pentecostal clergyman!

In short form, Mr. Wike is essentially an imperial politician. He ruled Rivers state like an emperor, dominating not only his government but also the entire political universe of the state. He abused and insulted his predecessor, hounded his former associates even within the PDP, destabilized the PDP at the national level, burnt or demolished the properties of politicians who disagreed with or opposed his political interests. Where and when he deemed fit, Mr. Wike cajoled, threatened, ‘bought’ supporters or starved his adversaries of patronage and pork. In a sense, he personifies the essence of a rising imperial school of politics in Nigeria’s frail democracy.

Incidentally, the Wike school of imperial politics seems to have found traction with the new Tinubu presidency. The president has openly acknowledged and embraced Mr. Wike as not only “a prime minister” but a valued political ‘adviser’ of sorts. 

A few months ago, before President Tinubu began nominating his future ministers, this reporter cautioned against brining the Wike type of baggage into the new federal cabinet:  “He comes with a baggage full of a wild pedigree of serial political betrayals, disruptive behavior, uncouth manners,  exhibitionism and controversies…”  Having to play umpire in a political brawl between Mr. Wike and the political leadership of his home state is perhaps the least distraction that President Tinubu should expect from his choice of Mr. Wike. Other inconveniences may follow, including having to fend off Wike’s fiendish political ambition as a threat to his own political longevity.

As for the concerned elders of Rivers state, engagement with a long drawn confrontation between Mr. Wike and Governor Fubara promises to be a long undertaking. Future episodes, which are not far away,  may not be resolved so quickly.

As for Mr. Wike himself, the future of his relationship with the governor as his political God son promises to teach him a few home lessons about surrogates and power incumbency. Mr. Fubara may seem meek and pliable but he is in power and authority in Rivers state today. It may not be so easy to wrest him from that position of strength. He can only get stronger and grow his followership in the state. The governor is the present custodian of what Wike values so highly, namely, his political base. The governor is in charge of the local governments, the political parties in the state and can take control of the entire State House of Assembly at will. Above all, the Governor has immunity which Mr. Wike has lost. Yet these vulnerabilities do not necessarily make Mr. Wike an easy political adversary to neutralise. He will wage a bloody fight every inch of the way.

As for the young governor, the incident that took place last week is merely a dress rehearsal of what lies ahead. I was struck with pity when after his Abuja meeting with Mr. Wike, the governor naively described his brief brush with Wike as “a father and son” disagreement! What Emperor Wike just did with the simulated crisis of last week is merely an inoculation battle to test the waters. The Emperor merely looked in to get a sneak preview of the future battlefield.

From his response, the governor has failed an elementary rule of the power game. The rule is simple: When a Godfather as lethal as Mr. Wike becomes a political adversary, you do not just scorch the snake. You decapitate it.

Now that we have officially dispensed with all matters relating to the 2023 presidential election, many issues came up along the line which I think we need to pay closer attention to in the interest of consolidating this democracy. It is no longer about who won or who lost — the Supreme Court, the highest court in the land, has declared that President Bola Tinubu won, or that his opponents did not prove that they won. We now need to look at what we have learnt in the process and how these lessons can be useful going forward. My intention is to pick on three issues and offer my thoughts. I do not intend to claim perfect knowledge of the solutions, but I plan to challenge some notions.

The first issue, which kept coming up, is the need to dispense with post-election litigation before inauguration. This is very important. It does not make sense that the disputed winner of an election will be sworn in while the legal battles are still on. This gives the proclaimed winner, in this case the president, an unusual advantage. He has assumed full executive powers over state institutions that are critical to the electoral process. He has taken full control of the treasury. He can do and undo, as it were. His party controls the legislature. If the election is annulled and a fresh one ordered by the court, the acting president will be the senate president, who happens to be from the same party.

Moreover, there will be an uneasy state of affairs if the senate president were to be acting president. For one, he will take over the executive powers and is likely to act in favour of his party. We may end up burning more billions on a fresh election, only to return the same person to office. That would be a monumental waste of resources. More worrisome, for me, are the consequences of a perceived power vacuum while the president steps aside. There will be uncertainties within the power centres. Our democracy may be undermined as we saw with the Interim National Government in 1993. It is not a co-incidence that no sitting president has ever been removed by a tribunal. It is just too risky.

For these reasons, I fully support the motion that election petitions should be fully dispensed with before inauguration. But things are a little bit complicated. If you want to prove that you won an election, you need to gather critical evidence and witnesses to argue your case in court. We hold the general election in February and March. Inaugurations take place in May. That is a gap of two to three months. For a presidential election that holds in 176,000 polling units, 774 local government areas, 36 states and the FCT, the litigants would need a mix of magic and miracle to prove their case within the allotted time. Maybe we can extend the gap to six months by holding elections earlier.

It has also been suggested that we shorten the litigation process. One suggestion is for an electoral court to be set up for election matters only. As things stand, a governorship petition starts at the high court, goes to the appeal court and ends at the apex court; National Assembly starts at the high court and ends at appeal court; and presidential starts at the appeal court and ends at the Supreme Court. Some people think these processes are too long and all matters should start and end at the electoral court. However, I think there should always be room for redress. After all, many verdicts are upturned on appeal. But the truth is that those who eventually lose will still complain of injustice.

For instance, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, after losing his petition against Tinubu at the Supreme Court, launched an attack on the judiciary. He said the judiciary is the “lost hope” of the common people. When he was winning every case at the Supreme Court in 2006 and 2007, he praised the judiciary. This is so typical of Nigerian politicians. I’m sure Tinubu would have done the same if he had lost. When PDP was in power, any election won by APC/ACN/AC was declared “free and fair” by Lai Mohammed, the opposition spokesman. But if PDP won, it was “rigged”. In 2023, where PDP or LP won, it was “free and fair”. Where they lost, it was “the worst election in Nigeria’s history”. So it goes.

Nevertheless, there should always be room for appeal and all cases should be concluded before inauguration. I still do not think this will solve all problems, but it is very necessary. Yet, there is a counter argument: a ruling party can always use its incumbency to win an election and deploy its power and perks during post-election litigation to favour its candidate, who will then be inaugurated. The problem remains unsolved. Also, if we stretch this argument further, what happens to a sitting president running for a second term? He will still enjoy incumbency during post-election litigation. But I still support the motion that petitions should be concluded before inauguration. It makes sense.

The second issue is the 25 percent threshold as it pertains to the FCT. Section 134 (2) of the 1999 Constitution says: “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election: (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter (same as 25 percent) of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.” The Supreme Court has now interpreted that in a presidential election, FCT is to be taken as the 37th state. No state is superior to the other.

This is a commonsense interpretation of the constitution. At no time in our history has any law mandated a presidential candidate to win 25 percent in a particular state to be declared overall winner. The 1979, 1989 and 1995 constitutions — either operational or not — did not place any such requirement. Alhaji Shehu Shagari became president in 1979 and was re-elected in 1983 without winning 25 percent in Lagos state, the federal capital then. If the capital city logic were to apply, it would also mean a governor should win 25 percent of the state capital to be declared winner. The vagueness in the 1999 Constitution was obviously because the FCT is officially not a state.

But there was another commonsense issue: if either Atiku or Peter Obi had won the highest number of votes across the federation and got 25 percent in 30 states, as Tinubu did, and failed to win 25  percent in the FCT, as was the case with Tinubu, would either be satisfied for the election to be declared inconclusive and a run-off ordered? If I were Atiku or Obi, I would argue vehemently that it would amount to miscarriage of justice. But I understand that this is politics and people would deliberately becloud the issues and ignore the logic just to gain an advantage. By the official results, Atiku scored 25 percent in 21 states and Obi in 16 states. Both fell short of the 24 states threshold.

And that is actually the second issue: is it 24 or 25 states? What is “two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja”? What is “two-thirds” of 37? I can see another constitutional crisis in the embryo. It happened in 1979 when we could not define “two-thirds” of the 19 states that we had then. Shagari met the threshold in 12 states, but Chief Obafemi Awolowo filed a constitutional case to argue that it should be 13 states (since humans cannot be fractionalised). The Supreme Court ruled that it should be 12 states plus a quarter of two-thirds of votes cast in the 13th state (which was Kano). This was decided before Shagari’s inauguration.

What is my point, though? The National Assembly must now amend Section 134 (2) (b) of the 1999 Constitution for clarity. It should state clearly that the FCT will be regarded as a state for the sake of calculating the spread requirement. It should also state clearly what two-thirds of 37 states is so that we would not have to start another round of litigation in the future. Ironically, the late Prof Bala Usman raised the issue of “two-thirds of 19 states” at the 1978 Constituent Assembly that debated the draft of the 1979 Constitution. Nobody took him seriously but he included it in the minority report. It became the biggest issue of the 1979 presidential poll and made a small dent on it.

The third issue for me is “how to win an election petition”. The Supreme Court gave enough “expo” on that: don’t just say you won an election and were cheated; show us how you won. Show us that in State X, you polled 800,000 votes but your tally was unlawfully reduced to 100,000. Tabulate it. Back it with copies of the result sheets signed by the officials and your agents at the polling units. Show evidence that the figures on the result sheets given to your agents are different from the results announced by INEC. Show evidence that if the actual votes had been counted, you would have won. The burden is entirely on you to prove that you won and to show how you won. This is vital.

For instance, Obi definitely won in Rivers state from the results uploaded on iRev but his votes were shortened by about 80,000 — which, unfortunately, was not enough to make him the overall runner-up to Tinubu. His supporters said over one million votes were stolen from him in Lagos. It would have been very easy to prove that: just gather all the copies of the result sheets at the 13,000 polling units in Lagos and do an alternative collation and tabulation to show the tribunal that his actual tally in the state was 1,582,454 and not the 582,454 that was recorded against his name. That would have taken him to second position overall. These are lessons for the future, especially with regards to litigation.

In all, I have raised three issues which I believe need to be addressed by those concerned. One, we have to conclude election petitions before inauguration. It is not a super solution but it is absurd to swear in the proclaimed winner of a disputed election while litigation is still on. We need to adjust the election timetable. Two, we need to amend the constitution to clarify the status of FCT in presidential elections and to make it plain what  “two-thirds of the 37 states” means. Three, litigants must understand that proving that they are the actual winners can be simplified if they provide alternative tallies based on the result sheets signed by their agents. There is a lesson for everyone.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

WHAT A YACHT

Nigerians are justifiably livid that the federal government is budgeting to pay for a presidential yacht for N5 billion at a time the majority of our people are groaning under economic hardship accelerated by the inevitable removal of subsidy and devaluation of the naira. Presidency has explained that it is not a “yacht” as we know it but a “naval vessel” for operations in our territorial waters and that the commitment was made by the previous administration. But we were still trying to digest this when Senator Ali Ndume revealed that the yacht is already in the country, even though “we are yet to pay for it”. The naval authorities have also confirmed that the expensive toy is already here. Enjoyment.

MIDNIGHT RAVEN

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has decided to put a stop to night raids — apparently in response to the outcry over the mass arrest of students of the Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU). Sting operations are common with security agencies, no doubt. But what we have been witnessing over time is a recurrence of an absolute abuse of people’s rights under the general title of “sting operations”. People are routinely molested. There seems to be an element of voyeurism too as security operatives invade the rooms of ladies who are most likely sleeping naked. We must always remember that these rights abuses fuelled the End SARS uprising. Provocative.

STOPPING SEYI

President Tinubu recently publicly complained about his son, Seyi, gaining undue access into the Council Chambers during a cabinet meeting. Tinubu did well to speak openly, but this is still nothing more than a slap on the wrist. The boy needs to be put in his place. Never since the time of Gen Sani Abacha has any “first son” been in our face like this, with his finger in every pie. Seyi is clearly enjoying the moment too much, but he needs a conversation with himself for his own good. His father will not be president forever and he risks his own future if he keeps walking on our heads. The president should also call Folasade, the exuberant “first daughter of FRN”, to order. Caution.

AND FINALLY…

Joe Ajaero, president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), was beaten black and blue in Owerri, Imo state, on Wednesday ahead of a planned picketing of the airport over the salaries of civil servants. The police said they only rescued Ajaero from the mob that had attacked him but his fellow activists said it was the police that assaulted him. No matter who is responsible, the fact remains that he was battered beyond recognition — at least from the images we have seen so far. He definitely did not molest himself. In the whole situation, though, Ajaero gave us unusual comic relief while narrating his experience: “Dem beat me o… God must have taken extra time to create me.” Rib-cracking!

The Appeal Court sitting in Abuja has fixed Monday, October 6, 2023, to hear the appeal of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of Kano State against the nullification of his election.

Recall that Yusuf had filed an appeal to challenge the nullification of his election by the Kano Election Petition Tribunal and the declaration of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna of the All Progressive Congress (APC) as the duly elected governor.

A three-man panel of judges led by Justice Oluyemi Akintan Osadebay sacked Yusuf on September 20, 2023, by declaring 165,663 of his votes invalid because “they were not signed or stamped by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).”

After the tribunal deducted the votes from Yusuf’s tally, the votes of the Kano governor were reduced to 853,939, 30,000 votes less than the 890,705 votes polled by Gawuna.

Consequently, the court declared Gawuna, the APC candidate, as the winner of the governorship election and ordered the INEC to withdraw Yusuf’s certificate.

In his reaction to the ruling, Governor Yusuf had described the tribunal’s verdict as “unfair” and “a miscarriage of justice”.