Since he assumed office as Nigeria’s Minister of the Interior on August 21, 2023, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo has been promoted as a whizkid and a strategic planner who would introduce innovations in the ministry. At just 42, he ranks among the youngest ministers and one of the hot-heads that would stand out within the administration of President Bola Tinubu. Fittingly, the ministry of the Interior in which he supervises five key parastatals – among them the Security and Civil Defence Corps; the Nigerian Correctional Services; the Immigration Service and the Federal Fire Services – is one of the most challenging.

He didn’t disappoint in making promises to introduce reforms that are necessary to drive his vision. Of all the five agencies, he focused especially on the Nigerian Immigration Service (NIS) and promised to excel where previous administrations failed. The Passport Office in the NIS is easily among the most embarrassing public service agencies in the country, with infamous records in snail-speed issuance of international passports. The personnel not only lack courtesy in attending to Nigerians, home and abroad, many believe they corruptly undermine whatever system is put in place to make their work seamless.

So, shortly after assumption of office, he had promised to introduce automation in the Passport issuance process and to dismantle all bottlenecks that hinder speedy issuance of Nigerian passports. He received plaudits for that.

One year after the reforms, how has he fared?

Considering the promises he made and the huge expectation by the public, he has not impressed. Apart from clearing the backlog of over 200,000 pending passport applications within two weeks of assuming office and increasing the costs of the passport booklets on the claim of improved security features, not much has come by way of any innovation. The agency moved the cost from N35,000 to N50,000 for the 32-page booklet with 5 year validity and from N70,000 to N100,000 for the 64-page booklet with 10 year validity.

On the crucial aspect of speeding up the process of passport issuance, the so-called reform failed spectacularly. Rather than the 2 week limit for issuance of passports which he announced gleefully earlier in the year, applicants still spend between 5 to 7 weeks to get their documents issued or renewed. Same with the policy for contactless renewal of passports introduced since March 2024 but which has not been achieved as applicants for new passports as well as renewals still appear physically at the offices for their biometrics to be captured.

The failed promise to get the passports delivered to applicants’ homes has added a scandalous dimension to what has become Tunji-Ojo’s failed promises at the Nigerian Immigration Service. Not only are the thousands of passport applicants deceived into opting for ‘home delivery’ in the online passport application portals and are made to pay the charges, the service – in most cases – is not being rendered.

While an indigenous supply chain company, the Greater Washington Express (GWX), with head office in Ikeja Lagos, was engaged for the project and deployed to the Immigration offices in Lagos, Port Harcourt, Kano, Enugu and the headquarters in Abuja, the company has not engaged in any large-scale passport delivery services in any of the locations. The cooperation of the NIS staff, crucial for the success of the policy, has not been forthcoming.

After waiting for weeks for their passports to be delivered, to no avail, applicants who paid the N5,000 charges would get to the passport offices only to discover that while they stayed at home waiting for the delivery bikes, their passports had been produced and stockpiled in the Passport Office for weeks. So, why is this so? Enquiries at the Abuja NIS Headquarters gives the picture of what has flawed the service across the country. It reveals a disturbing scenario in which the process was being sabotaged by Immigration staff who deride the GWX arrangement as a process introduced by the Minister without proper consultation. Somehow, they have refused to flow with it.

A visit to the GWX office at the NIS headquarter was revealing: last week, a staff repeatedly told applicants who had came to collect his passports personally, that “there is nothing we can do on our own if the Immigration staff refuse to give us the list of the applicants who subscribe to the service as well as their passports and addresses for delivery.” Such altercations have become commonplace between the frustrated applicants, Immigration officials and staff of GWX. It paints a sorry picture of whatever reforms are being implemented.

Amazingly, the home delivery policy, like the contactless renewal policy, and all such policies that are meant to reduce the crowd that troop to the Passport Office daily, usually meet stiff opposition from staff of the Immigration Service. The reason is obvious to most Nigerians who know that the passport racket in which most Immigration officers engage, thrives on the crowd of desperate applicants that throng the Office. Cutting off the applicants becomes for them a ‘bad market.’

Indeed, the sabotage and mutual contempt between officials of the NIS and the GWX is deep, and it has been frustrating to thousands of Nigerians who are seemingly scammed of their hard-earned money. In November, total deliveries by GWX in Abuja account for less than 10% of the passports that are listed for home delivery, a feat that was achieved only through high-level interventions.

The question is: are the minister and the Comptroller-General of Immigratiom, Kemi Nandap ignorant of all these? While the cold war rages, is the GWX, whose staff doze through the working hours in their section of the NIS offices, being paid for services they are not rendering?

It is either the policy is not designed to work, or the Minister has not done enough in getting the Immigration staff to buy into it. Or both. Whatever the case, it is scandalous that in spite of the failure of the service, the agency continues to retain the subscription for it in the passport application portal. Worse still, the NIS which receives the payments has not deemed it necessary to refund applicants for the services they paid for, but which is not being rendered.

Sheddy Ozoene, Editor-In-Chief of People&Politics, is the Vice President of the Nigerian Guild of Editors.

An epic poet describes the Fulani hunter as “shepherd of wild animals.” The hunter is also the one “who knows the calm and wild forest, with its many dangerous paths…..” When a man so described describes you as a target, you had better go sew a dress of steel. If you are from the South-West and you can read, read this: “Our next target now is this geo-political zone. The south-west geo-political zone. You know we are good at getting the target. We will do all that is possible to bring them into the fold.” That is from Abdullahi Ganduje, immediate past governor of Kano State and incumbent national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC). He made the solemn pledge in Akure, the Ondo State capital, after his party’s governorship election victory in that state two weeks ago.

Now, which fold was Ganduje talking about? And who are the “we” that are “good at getting the target”? Ganduje is smart. He chose his words deliberately and carefully. The strongman from Kano has significantly stepped back from his earlier obsession with capturing Oyo and Osun states. He now targets the entire zone. For whom? It can’t be for the APC – the party already has two-thirds of the zone. In Adebayo Faleti’s ‘Ogun Awitele’ (Foretold War), a band of thieves sent a handwritten letter to a village head: “We are coming to rob your people in seven days’ time.” The tone of the letter rattled the Baale and his chiefs. If you are sure of the efficacy of your amulets, you swear by them. The leader of the band of thieves signed his name as Ajiboogunsoro (he-who-wakes-up-to-converse-with-charms). A significant takeaway from that moment of fear and anxiety is the village head’s charge to his security chiefs to always know that no matter how powerful the boastful invaders are, “you should always remember that you are hunters, they are thieves (ode ni yín, olè ni wón)”. What Ganduje, the big man, said is evocative of a deja vu. There is something in Nigeria’s political history that suggests today’s mission as an echo of a daring, fateful yesterday.

But, whatever the man might be saying, I suggest he and his “we” take time to watch closely the Eyo masquerade of Lagos and listen attentively to their songs. The Eyo seductively mock their challengers with a folk song composed for colonialism on the futility of its land-grabbing propensity. They sing: “The white man took Oluwole; Lagos did not utter a word. With ease, the white man took Marina; again Lagos was silent. Now, they want to take Isale Eko. They think we are dumb.” The Eyo actually use the Hausa word, Kurumo (deaf and dumb). The Kano man, Ganduje, understands perfectly the imagery of the speechless who is at the same time dead in hearing. I am very sure that no one ever takes the South-West as a zone of the invalid, deaf and dumb.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is a former governor of Kano State. He has been the boss (and friend) of Ganduje from the beginning of time. In a speech he delivered at the convocation ceremony of Skyline University, Kano, two weeks ago, Kwankwaso claimed that “Lagos” was working hard to enslave the whole North. He said: “Today, we can see very clearly that there is a lot of efforts from the Lagos axis to colonize this part of the country.” Kwankwaso is an old war horse and a rambunctious power-player. You ignore him at your peril, and to your sorrow

You remember a gentleman called Festus Odimegwu, a former Managing Director of the Nigerian Breweries Plc who was made the chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) by President Goodluck Jonathan? In October, 2013, because Odimegwu said “No census has been credible in Nigeria since 1816”, Kwankwaso stormed the Villa and asked President Jonathan to sack the man as NPC chairman. Kwankwaso told State House correspondents after meeting Jonathan: “I also raised the issue of the chairman of the National Population Commission, NPC, headed by one Festus Odimegwu. We are not happy about that appointment, and (we) think that it was a mistake. He (Odimegwu) had only worked in the alcoholic industry all his life. And my guess is that he’s taking a lot of his products and that is why we feel that his appointment is a mistake because he cannot be the chairman of NPC and at the same time attack what his predecessors have done.” With “automatic alacrity”, Jonathan obeyed Kwakwanso and asked Odimegwu to go on October 17, 2013. That is how you feel the power of power.

Ganduje was direct in naming his target: the South-West. Kwankwanso went poetic; Lagos was (is) his metaphor for the West. The man who wants to be president of Nigeria also spoke on tax collection. He said: “Today, we are aware that the Lagos young men are working so hard to impose taxes and take away our taxes from Kano and this part of the country to Lagos.” Who are Kwakwanso’s “Lagos young men”? And what VAT is Kwakwanso fighting over? VAT from confiscated products of “the alcoholic industry”? Or from the leveled groundnut pyramids of Kano?

Kwakwanso spoke about colonialism; Ganduje spoke about “getting the target.” Those two deserve more than anyone’s passing attention. Between them, Kano has been a captive cripple since 1999. Ibrahim Shekarau who acted during an interlude was Kwankwaso’s permanent secretary. The incumbent governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, is Kwakwanso’s son-in-law. Check the figures: How many poor people did they meet in Kano in 1999, how many do they have now? In his ‘The Psychology of Science: A Reconnaissance,’ Abraham Maslow wrote in 1966: “If the only tool you have is a hammer, it is tempting to treat everything as if it were a nail.” Some describe what Maslow propounded as the ‘law of the instrument’. Others say it is the ‘law of the hammer’. Yet, some other analysts prefer to christen it ‘Maslow’s hammer’ or ‘the golden hammer.’ For persons whose idea of leadership is all about slave raiding, zone targeting and capturing, their choice of mission will always employ the rhetoric of slavery.

While Ganduje and Kwakwanso are doing their own their ways, the third Kano man, Shekarau, has been busy setting up a group he calls League of Northern Democrats (LND). At a meeting with the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) in Kaduna some days ago, a more nuanced Shekarau spoke on why he is doing what he is doing: “This marks the beginning of what we hope will be a transformative coalition for Northern Nigeria to confront its challenges…The challenges facing our region – poverty, insecurity, illiteracy, religious intolerance, disunity, and diminishing political influence – are indeed serious. The North is today in an ugly situation…” There is a fitting quote here attributed to Albert Einstein: “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Those who disfigured the face of beautiful northern Nigeria cannot now beautify it. You know what happened when the monkey insisted she wanted to beautify her child’s ugly face? She pushed the eyeballs deeper into the sockets. Monkey’s fingers are not structured to beautify anything. Take a look at them.

So, when I heard Ganduje say that his target was the South-West, I wondered why it is not his “target” that Kano’s groundnut pyramids are restored. And, when Kwakwanso said ‘Lagos’ was determined to colonise his “part of the country”, you should wonder why his rhetoric was all about power and not how to make his part of the country as safe and prosperous as the part where Lagos belongs. And Shekarau spoke about the North’s “diminishing political influence.” If I would counsel him, I would suggest that what the North of 2024 needs to regain its mojo is for its leaders to make the region safe by educating their young, and empowering and feeding their poor without enslaving them.

I call Kwankwaso, Ganduje and Shekarau the three musketeers of Kano. A soldier armed with a musket is a musketeer. In French history, we read of the Musketeers of the Guard (Mousquetaires de la garde) or the King’s Musketeers (Mousquetaires du roi). They existed to fight the king’s battles. Their exploits of guile, of swordsmanship and chivalry later spilt over to the plains of popular culture. Because of them, we have books and films with ‘The Three Musketeers’ (Les Trois Mousquetaires) as titles. The story of Kano since 1999 has been an intricate story of war and romance among those three musketeers who shared the years equally among them. They are not done with that city state, and with their North. They are not even done with the whole country. That is what you get when an elite band targets, captures and enslaves an enclave. Get your popcorn. They appear gearing up for war – with “Lagos”. And a good fight is coming.

The federal government has commenced N50 electronic levy deductions from transactions of N10,000 and above made by users of financial technology (Fintech) companies, including Opay, Moniepoint, Kuda, and others.

The levy, called Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), introduced under the Finance Act 2020, places a singular and one-off levy of N50 on the recipient of any electronic receipt or transfer of N10,000 or above, and was earlier announced to take effect from September 9, Tribune Online reported.

The introduction of the EMTL was, however, met with opposition from Nigerians, with various groups including the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) calling on the federal government to reverse its position on the implementation of the levy.

Meanwhile, in a notice sent to customers earlier in September, Opay explained that the levy was imposed by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), stating however that it did not benefit from it.

“Please be informed that starting September 9, 2024, a one-time of N50 will be applied to electronic transfers of N10,000 and above paid into your personal or business account in compliance with the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) regulations.

“It is important to note that Opay does not benefit from this charge in any way as it is directed entirely by the federal government,” Opay explained in its earlier notice.

In a recent development, the fintech companies have again notified their customers that the implementation of the N50 EMTL deduction has commenced from December 1, 2024.

Opay, in a message sent to its users on Saturday (also shared via its app), explained that the electronic levy deduction begins on December 1.

“Dear Customer, in line with the FIRS, the EMTL applies starting from December 1st, 2024,” the message reads.

Likewise, Moniepoint in a notice sent to its customers on Saturday, explained that it has commenced implementation of the EMTL charges, clarifying however that the levy will be remitted to the FIRS.

“Dear customer, you will be charged stamp duty of N%) on inflows of N10,000 and above. Moniepoint collects and remits this on behalf and to FIRS,” Moniepoint says.

Meanwhile, our correspondent also gathered that the EMTL implementation has officially taken effect with Fintechs already deducting N50 for the federal government on transactions of N10,000 and above.

[Tribune]

In the roaring 1970s, the nationalist fervent was at a feverish pitch in the country and, the Pan- Africanist and independence fires were tearing   through Mozambique, Angola, Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde, Zimbabwe and   Western Sahara. Also, there was fire in Soweto.

Our politics   was    positively   influenced   by people like Samora Machel, Ruth First, Nelson and Winnie Mandela, Robert Mugabe, Amilcar Cabral and   Mwalimu Nyerere.  Writers such as Wole Soyinka, Ngugi Wa’Thiongo,   Peter Abrahams, Nadine Gordimer   and Okot P’Bitek held our literary skies.  

The music of Jimmy Cliff, Bob Marley, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti and   Max Romeo was   telling the youths to rebel against the oppressive system and remake the world.     It was in the furnace of those volcanic eruptions some of Nigeria’s     finest youths were   baked.   For them, there were no compromises to be made; it was struggle until victory. They embraced danger like lovers and saw no future without qualitative change. 

They were married to revolutionary change till-death-do-them- part. Those fearless youths   welcomed my generation to the campuses, nurtured and cultured us.  It was in Ife I ran into the troika from Kano-Zaria: Yahaya Hashim, Abdulrauf Mustapha   and Jibrin Ibrahim, popularly called Jibo. They had graduated in the mid-1970s and were building alliances to change the country and transform Africa.

It was as a member of the youth corps in Kano I first met Abdulkadir Isah Uguda, an intense mind who lived every second for revolutionary change. That was in 1982 and already, he was a veteran carrying   the scars of struggles. This included his 1964 prosecution when he was a ten-year old Primary Three pupil.   He was charged with furthering the aims of the opposition Northern Elements Progressive   Union, NEPU.

He had also   been expelled from the Kaduna Polytechnic and had his scholarship cancelled.   His expulsion along with 14 other students followed national protests by the National Association   of Technological Students, NATS, against somersaults in polytechnic education policies. This included   changing the two-tier system of Ordinary National Diploma, OND,   followed by one year industrial attachment and two years of Higher National Diploma, to a single three-year programme followed by industrial attachment. The students argued this was a deliberate lowering of   polytechnic education standards.

The detained students, rather than be charged in the normal courts, were taken before Alkali courts where they were certain to be thrown into prison as lawyers did not appear in those Islamic courts. In fact, some of the students had already been sent to prison before their arraignment!   When the 1979 Constitution was promulgated, radical lawyer, Gani Fawehinmi, represented by Mr Femi Lanlehin, went to court and got the students freed.

Abdulkadir’s scholarship was not restored because the Kano State Scholarship Board which interviewed him said he did not convince it that he would no longer participate in student union politics. He joined the Immigration Services and became a member of the Customs, Excise and Immigration Staff Union, CEIMSU.   He also became the   Assistant Secretary of the Borno State Council of the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC. Abdulkadir was later elected the National Vice President of the CEIMSU. As a   national labour leader, he   opposed   the privatisation programme and rejected collaboration with the   military   rulers.  

There were clashes between the CEIMSU led by Secretary General Bernard Odulana, and Interior Affairs Minister, Colonel John Shagaya. This eventually led to the proscription of the union. This was where Abdulkadir, despite being an   officer of the para-military corps, rose to campaign against the proscription, thereby endangering his career.  He fought the NLC leadership of Paschal Bafyau for collaborating with the military to proscribe the union. He told me: “It was the NLC   that carried out the folding   up of CEIMSU without even contacting   the leaders who were contesting the obnoxious action…the ILO’s move to intervene was subverted   by the NLC.” Today, even after retiring from service and,   35 years after the CEIMSU’s proscription, Abdulkadir continues to nudge the NLC and ILO to fight for the union’s de-proscription. 

Jibrin ‘Jibo’ Ibrahim has spent his life building societal organisations and mentoring people for a better world.   As a student in the Ahmadu Bello University, ABU, he helped to develop   the radical students   Movement for Progressive Nigeria, MPN, into a fighting force for change. Although the members were repeatedly expelled by the authoritarian university administrators and he himself, endangered, he never gave up. He also helped to build a similar organisation at the   national level called the Patriotic   Youth Movement of Nigeria, PYMN.   The PYMN was instrumental to the establishment of the National Association of Nigerian Students, NANS, in 1980 and running it into the mid-1990s.

Jibo also helped to establish the Youths Solidarity Against Apartheid, YUSSAN.    A firm advocate of women rights and equality, he was one of the founders of the Women In Nigeria, WIN, in 1982. Intensely intellectual, Jibo, a professor and advocate of the downtrodden,   puts his prodigious knowledge at the service of the people   by simplifying and making it available through his weekly columns. He is known for his religious-like advocacy and defence of fundamental human rights   and expansion of the democratic space. This has seen him build and develop civil society organisations.   He was the Executive Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, and chair of the   West African Civil Society Forum, WACSOF.

He is the   leader of the social movements in Abuja and, when necessary, leads them in   protests as he did in January 2012. One of the major reasons why Jibo attracts the young and is widely respected     even in government circles is that he has a listening ear, is highly tolerant of other   views and focuses on solutions rather than mere criticism.

Jibo is an example of a person who not just paid   back, but gave far more than he was given. He had come to the School of Basic Studies and ABU at 18,   never having heard of different cultures of progress, radicalism or Marxism. Those experiences and the fact that his generation had a good and high quality education   irrespective of their social background, moulded his life.   Since then, it has been how this has changed him and his comrades; transformed them and, how   it   has shaped the struggles they   have   undertaken.

Some of us stand on the broad shoulders of these   fearless, selfless and principled fighters for a better universe and a New World Order.  Abdulkadir Isah Uguda   turned   70 on Monday, November 11, 2024 and Jibrin ‘Jibo’ Ibrahim reached this milestone   19 days later, precisely on Saturday, November 30, 2024.     Nations that have such people are blessed. May Africa never run short of such people of vision and conviction.

In 2012, Oscar Onyema, former chief executive officer of the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), now Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), set a $1 trillion market capitalisation target for the exchange by 2016.

Twelve years after, however, the market is far off that target. In naira terms, the market capitalisation is a little below N60 trillion mark and just around $36 billion.

Realistically, the easier target for the NGX to meet is a $100 billion market capitalisation, which would mean a flurry of listings on the exchange, including by giants such as the Tolaram Group, Dangote Refinery, Dangote Fertilizer Limited, and Globacom Limited, as well as technology companies.

With a market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio of around 17.5 percent, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) is shown not to be a significant driver of the Nigerian economy.

However, the capital market has shown impressive resilience. While the Nigerian economy grew by 2.74 percent in 2023, the stock exchange achieved its best returns since 2020, growing by 45.9 percent that year.

The NGX was also the best-performing exchange in the world in 2020, with a 50 percent growth rate, in contrast with a 1.8 percent GDP decline experienced in Nigeria that year.

The market provides Nigerians with avenues to participate in wealth creation through equity investments, dividend earnings, and portfolio growth. This is evidenced by some of the returns afforded to shareholders over the years. For example, Dangote Cement, since listing on the NGX in 2010, has distributed about N2.83 trillion in dividends to its shareholders.

During the commemoration of its 10th anniversary of listing on the Nigerian Exchange in May 2024, it was noted that Seplat Energy had paid about $575 million in dividends to its shareholders since 2014. This figure has surpassed $600 million since then.

Nigerian publicly listed firms distributed over N1.5 trillion in dividends for the 2023 financial year, which suggests how much wealth these companies create for retail and institutional investors.

Apart from wealth creation, the ability to raise equity financing is another perk for companies listed on the exchange. According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Nigerian banks raised about N1.26 trillion through their public offers and rights issues in 2024 as they try to comply with their new capital base guidelines.

Following this analysis, what then are the pathways for this target?

Oil and Gas Listings

On the NGX, Oando, Seplat, and Aradel – three upstream oil and gas companies – have a gross market capitalisation of about N6.3 trillion. However, there are over 30 upstream oil companies which hold oil mining leases, with far higher production capacity and by extension revenue than Seplat, Oando, or Aradel.

For example, South Atlantic Petroleum Limited, owned by TY Danjuma, holds a 15 percent stake in OML 130, which encompasses the Akpo and Egina oil fields—among the country’s largest oil-producing assets.

In October 2024, Aradel Holdings was listed on the NGX with a N3.05 trillion market capitalisation. The group recorded a net profit of N110.6 billion, which came from its production capacity of 13,250 barrels per day and its 11,000 barrels per day modular refinery.

Using the relative valuation model based on their asset size, Sapetro and Aiteo each has a valuation that is worth more than N2.28 trillion. The listing of just these two companies can raise NGX’s market capitalisation by N6 trillion, or $3.4 billion. This would push the NGX’s market capitalisation to N66 trillion.

Dangote Refinery, Dangote Fertiliser Listing

Aliko Dangote, chairman of Dangote Refinery and Dangote Fertiliser Limited, has repeatedly stated that he has plans to carry out a dual listing for both the refinery and fertilizer company. In a media round in July 2024, he stated that there were plans to list the refinery on the NGX and the London Stock Exchange by the first quarter of 2025.

Although Dangote says the refinery cost him $20 billion to build, Bloomberg values it at around $18.6 billion. If the refinery is listed on the NGX with that same valuation, it would boost the NGX’s market capitalisation by N32.55 trillion.

Bloomberg values the fertilizer plant at approximately $3 billion (N5.25 trillion). Should both plants be listed on the NGX, they could collectively raise the market capitalisation to an estimated ₦103.8 trillion.

Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited

Since inception in 1989, it is reported that NLNG Limited has paid around $18 billion in dividends to the federal government through NNPC Limited. The federal government presently holds a 49 percent stake in NLNG, with TotalEnergies, Shell, and ENI holding the remaining 51 percent stake.

Between 2008 and 2014, the company contributed approximately 4 percent to Nigeria’s GDP, highlighting its significant impact on the nation’s economy. Currently, NLNG has a production capacity of 22 million tonnes per annum, which is projected to hit 30 million tonnes per annum after NLNG Train 7.

Using the relative valuation model based on the valuation of the world’s largest natural gas companies, such as Qatargas and Cheniere Energy, NLNG is projected to trade on the NGX with a $5 billion market capitalisation (N8.75 trillion). This would boost the market’s capitalisation to N112.55 trillion.

Tolaram Group

Tolaram Group is currently one of Nigeria’s largest consumer goods companies. Their subsidiaries include: Dufil Prima Foods, Multipro Consumer Products, Colgate-Palmoilve Tolaram, LekkiPort LFTZ Enterprise, TG Arla, Kellogg Tolaram Nigeria, Addmie Nutrition Limited, Lucky Fibres, and Guinness Nigeria.

In 2021, Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie, reported a revenue of N306.8 billion as well as a profit of N13.1 billion. On NASD, which is the unlisted equities market, Dufil Prima has a market capitalisation of N60.8 billion. Guinness Nigeria, a listed subsidiary of Tolaram, has a market capitalisation of N142 billion.

If Tolaram Group lists some of its holdings on the NGX, it could boost the market capitalisation by as high as N1 trillion, taking the market cap to N113.55 trillion.

In 2011, when Nigerian Bottling Company Plc delisted from the NGX, it had a valuation of N20.3 billion, representing N47 per share.

However, since 2011, Nigerian Bottling Company, now fully owned by Coca Cola Hellenic Bottling Company, has grown in leaps and bounds. Since delisting, the company has reportedly invested $1.5 billion in Nigeria, with plans to invest a further $1 billion.

When Coca-Cola delisted from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), its market capitalisation stood at approximately $130 million. In 2022, the company reported a per capita consumption rate of 74 servings in Nigeria, translating to around 15 billion units sold based on an estimated population of 202.7 million.

Although the company does not publish its financial statements, its annual revenue is estimated to exceed N2 trillion. Hence the company could add a further N250 billion to the NGX’s market capitalisation, boosting the market cap to N113.8 trillion.

Globacom Limited

In the past, Globacom Limited was Nigeria’s second largest telecommunications company in terms of subscriber base. However, a recent audit carried by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) shed off 40 million inactive Glo subscribers, thus bringing their number of subscribers down to 19.7 million.

However, the company still owns the 9,800 km GLO-1 submarine cable, which runs from London to Lagos, and was built with $800 million. Unlike its competitors, Glo does not lease. The company owns and operates its 8,700 towers across Nigeria, thus significantly boosting its asset size.

If Glo lists on the NGX, its market capitalisation would not be less than $1 billion (N1.75 trillion). Listing at this valuation could boost the NGX’s market capitalisation to N115.55 trillion.

Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals Limited

Indorama Eleme is Nigeria’s foremost petrochemical company and was the country’s largest fertilizer producer until Dangote. At the moment, Indorama Eleme owns the world’s largest single train fertilizer plant, with a production capacity of 1.4 million tonnes per annum. The company owns two plants which produce around 2.8 million tonnes of urea per year.

It also owns a port terminal in the Onne Port which it uses to facilitate urea export from Nigeria.

The company was in talks to list on the NGX in 2017, aiming to bring its investments in Nigeria to $4.2 billion by 2020.

In 2024, Indorama received a $1.25 billion financing package from the IFC. Based on its own 2020 estimates, Indorama may list on the NGX at a valuation of $4.2 billion (N7.35 trillion), bringing it cumulatively to N122.9 trillion.

Olam Nigeria

Olam is Nigeria’s largest non-oil exporter, with cashew, cocoa beans, and sesamum seed being its major export commodity. In Nigeria, the group through its subsidiaries, Olam International and Olam Holdings, own nine companies, including Outspan Nigeria, Caraway Africa Nigeria (makers of Fresh Yo), Olam Sanyo, OK Foods, Crown Flour Mills, Olam Flour Mills (formerly Dangote Flour Mills), Olam Hatcheries, and Quintessential Foods Nigeria formerly BUA Flour Mills).

Olam is also the producer of Mama’s Pride rice in Nigeria

Applying the relative valuation model, BUA Foods emerges as Olam’s closest competitor in terms of asset size and revenue, with a current market capitalisation of ₦7.11 trillion. Should Olam consolidate its Nigerian subsidiaries into a single entity and proceed with a listing on the NGX, the newly formed group would likely debut with an estimated market capitalisation of $4.1 billion (₦7.1 trillion).

This would bring the NGX’s market capitalisation to N127.1 trillion.

NNPC Limited

The prospect of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited listing on the NGX appears uncertain from an observer’s standpoint. Nevertheless, both the federal government and the NNPC have repeatedly emphasised their intentions for the state-owned oil company to go public.

This plan mirrors the precedent set by Saudi Aramco, which debuted on Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange in 2019, raising $29.4 billion through the sale of a 1.5 percent equity stake.

NNPC, with its expansive portfolio of 22 oil mining leases and seven oil prospecting leases, holds the largest stake in Nigeria’s oil and gas production. The company also operates three refineries and maintains a minority interest in Dangote’s refinery.

In the 2023 financial year, NNPC reported a net profit of N3.3 trillion, solidifying its position as Africa’s largest national oil company by asset size. Should it proceed with a listing on the NGX, conservative estimates peg its potential market valuation at $30 billion (₦52.5 trillion).

All of these listings have the potential to push NGX’s market capitalisation beyond $100 billion.

“We need to get more companies to list in the NGX,” said Ike Ibeabuchi, a emerging markets analyst.

“It enhances firms’ chances to raise capital, promotes transparency of companies’ operations, and leads to economic growth. But we need to create value for investors.”

[Businessday]

How many times have you heard that phrase “No African time” and maybe if you naively wondered, what is African time? “African time” is a colloquialism that refers to the cultural tendency in some African countries, including Nigeria, to have a more relaxed attitude towards time and punctuality.

While it’s difficult to quantify the exact amount of time wasted due to “African time,” here are some common scenarios that might give you an idea: Meetings and events starting 30 minutes to several hours late (Infact if it starts 30 minutes late, it is considered an early start). Social gatherings and parties beginning later than scheduled, delays in responding to messages or returning calls, and crass ineptitude characterized by some ridiculously flexible attitudes towards deadlines and time commitments

Keep in mind that “African time” is a stereotype, and not all Nigerians (or Africans) adhere to this cultural phenomenon. Let me state that many individuals and organizations prioritize punctuality and respect for other people’s time, but they are few in comparison.

Let’s dive deeper into the concept of “African time” and its cultural significance in Nigeria.

The term “African time” is believed to have originated from the colonial era, when Western colonizers imposed their own time-keeping systems on African societies. This disruption of traditional time-keeping practices led to a more flexible attitude towards time.

The manifestations of “African Time“ in Nigeria

1. Flexibility: Time is viewed as a flexible concept, rather than a rigid framework. For instance:

– A meeting scheduled for 10:00 AM might start at 11:30 AM, with attendees trickling in at their own pace.

– A friend might ask to meet up at 5:00 PM, but show up at 6:30 PM, expecting you to still be available.

2. Relaxed attitude: People may prioritize social interactions and relationships over punctuality. For example:

– A family gathering might be scheduled for 2:00 PM, but the host might not mind if guests arrive an hour or two late, as long as they come with a warm smile and a willingness to socialize.

– A colleague might show up late to a meeting, but make up for it by bringing a plate of freshly baked pastries or a bouquet of flowers.

3. Adaptability: Nigerians often adapt to changing circumstances, including unexpected delays or setbacks. For instance:

– A sudden rainstorm might cause a traffic jam, forcing you to arrive late to a meeting. Instead of apologizing profusely, you might simply shrug and say, “Ah, the rain caught me!”

– A power outage might disrupt a wedding reception, but the guests might simply laugh and continue celebrating by candlelight.

– A wedding reception might be scheduled for 12:00 PM, but the food might not be served until 3:00 PM.

– A birthday party might start at 5:00 PM, but the cake might not be cut until 7:30 PM.

Painfully, this attitude strays and influences not just various aspects of daily life in Nigeria but very important aspects, imagine where start times may be delayed, and punctuality is not always expected at a doctor’s appointment, scheduled for 9:00 AM, but the doctor might not see patients until 10:30 AM. A business meeting might start 30 minutes late, but the attendees might spend the first 15 minutes chatting and laughing together.

In Nigeria, “African time” has significant implications for politics and governance, and this was the point I had said I was coming to;

1. Flexible Schedules: Government meetings, events, and even court proceedings often start late, with attendees trickling in at their own pace.

2. Delayed Decision-Making: The flexible attitude towards time can lead to delayed decision-making, as officials may not feel pressured to meet deadlines.

3. Inefficient Bureaucracy: The concept of “African time” can contribute to an inefficient bureaucracy, where tasks are completed at a slower pace.

4. Lack of Accountability: The relaxed attitude towards time can make it challenging to hold officials accountable for their actions and decisions.

5. Cultural Expectations: In some cases, “African time” is seen as a cultural expectation, where punctuality is not always valued.

On the last point above, rather than assume, I would preferably ask, how many times have you seem a top government official, a governor or minister arrive early, or on time for a meeting, an even whether business or social, in fact it is seen as demeaning for the official or dignitary to be at the venue early or on time.

We have seen election delays like the 2019 presidential election, which was delayed by a week, with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) citing logistical challenges. We have been served ‘breakfast’ of Budget Delays, as the Nigerian government has consistently failed to meet its budget deadlines. Let me not even delve into the perennial delays in infrastructure, where the construction of major infrastructure projects, such as roads and bridges, often experience significant delays, with some projects taking years or even decades to complete or never completed.

The concept of “African time” in Nigerian politics and governance poses several challenges, we care less about the economic consequences of delays and inefficiencies, including lost productivity and revenue. The relaxed attitude towards time that erodes trust in government institutions and officials, how it leads to inefficient service delivery, including delayed or inadequate healthcare, education, and other essential services.

As Nigeria continues to modernize and integrate into the global economy, there is a growing recognition of the importance of punctuality and time management, I have seen the widespread use of digital technologies increasing awareness of time and promoting more efficient time management.

Interactions with people from other cultures have encouraged Nigerians to adopt more rigid time-keeping practices, Nigerians will still have a way of arriving at the airport late, but will seldom go for a VISA interview late and it speaks volumes.

To address the challenges posed by “African time,” it is essential to promote a culture of punctuality and respect for other people’s time. This can be achieved by implementing efficient systems and processes, fostering accountability, and encouraging citizens to prioritize punctuality.

In conclusion, “African time” is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that reflects Nigeria’s cultural heritage and historical context. While it presents challenges, it also painfully promotes flexibility, adaptability, and strong social relationships. By understanding and addressing the challenges posed by “African time,” Nigeria can promote a more efficient and effective governance system, ultimately benefiting its citizens and promoting economic growth and development.

Kemi Badenoch’s rise to prominence as the first Black woman to lead a major political party in the United Kingdom is undeniably historic. Her story symbolizes the triumph of multiculturalism and the opportunities migration offers. However, her recent pledges to implement stricter immigration policies expose a troubling contradiction: someone who owes her position to the benefits of migration now seeks to restrict those very opportunities for others.

This paradox encapsulates the heart of the debate on immigration in modern democracies. While the UK Conservative Party, under Badenoch’s leadership, claims to address the strain of mass migration on public services, the rhetoric and proposed measures risk alienating immigrants, creating divisions, and undermining the principles of inclusion and opportunity that have long defined Britain.

In her speech at Westminster, Badenoch warned that the current pace of migration threatens to overwhelm public services and erode social cohesion. She announced plans to introduce a hard annual cap on legal immigration, tighten visa regulations, and review existing treaties to close loopholes. She argued that immigration must slow down to preserve housing, healthcare, and wages.

Her concern about the strain on public services is valid to an extent. The UK’s healthcare system, housing sector, and other public services face mounting pressure. However, blaming immigration oversimplifies the root causes of these challenges. This is as issues, such as underfunding, mismanagement, and policy failures within successive governments have significantly been fingered to have contributed to these problems.

Moreover, Badenoch’s insistence that immigrants must adopt British values and foster a cohesive national identity raises concerns about the potential for xenophobia and exclusion. Such rhetoric risks painting immigrants as a monolithic group resistant to integration, ignoring the diversity and contributions of the immigrant community.

Badenoch’s own life story is a testament to the opportunities afforded by migration. Born to Nigerian parents, her family sought a better life in the United Kingdom, a life that allowed her to rise through the ranks of the Conservative Party to become a symbol of representation for minorities.

Her call for tighter immigration policies, therefore, feels like a betrayal to many who look up to her as a beacon of possibility. It is one thing to advocate for balanced reforms, but it is another to promote measures that could block the very pathways that enabled her success.

Critics have likened Badenoch’s stance to pulling up the ladder after reaching the top, a metaphor for policies that limit opportunities for others once an individual has achieved success. This perception risks alienating her from the communities that have celebrated her achievements.

Immigration has historically been an engine of economic growth for the UK. Migrants fill critical labor shortages in industries such as healthcare, agriculture, and technology. They also contribute to public finances, often paying more in taxes than they receive in benefits.

Studies have shown that countries with open and inclusive immigration policies tend to experience higher rates of innovation, entrepreneurship, and cultural exchange. The argument that migrants place an unsustainable burden on public services overlooks these benefits.

Badenoch’s proposed annual cap on immigration could exacerbate labor shortages, particularly in sectors already struggling to recruit workers. The National Health Service (NHS), for example, relies heavily on foreign-born professionals. Restricting immigration could lead to longer wait times for patients and increased strain on an already overburdened system.

Badenoch’s claim that “without a shared national identity, our country will suffer” is problematic. It simplifies a complex issue and risks fueling divisive narratives about immigrants failing to integrate. Integration is a two-way process that requires both migrants and host communities to engage meaningfully.

The emphasis on “British values” raises questions about whose values are being upheld and how they are defined. Such rhetoric often ignores the dynamic and evolving nature of national identity, which is enriched by diverse cultural influences.

As a leader with a unique personal history, Badenoch is well-placed to offer a nuanced perspective on immigration. She could have championed policies that address legitimate concerns about managing migration flows while celebrating the contributions of immigrants. Instead, her proposals reflect a reactionary approach that risks alienating immigrant communities and perpetuating stereotypes.

Badenoch’s insistence that reforms are necessary to prevent abuses of the system and protect public services is valid in principle. However, policies aimed at addressing such concerns must be carefully crafted to avoid unintended consequences, such as deterring skilled migrants or fostering hostility toward newcomers.

Badenoch’s stance highlights the broader challenges facing Western democracies in balancing immigration policies with social and economic realities. The push for stricter immigration laws often stems from a desire to address public anxieties about change, yet it risks creating more problems than it solves.

For Badenoch, the stakes are particularly high. As the leader of a Conservative Party still reeling from electoral defeat, her policies will shape the party’s identity and future prospects. Recall she was elected as the party’s new leader, replacing former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who stepped down after the party’s disastrous performance in July’s general election. In fact, a hardline approach to immigration may resonate with certain segments of the electorate, but it risks alienating moderates and minorities.

On the path forward, it is germane to opine that true leadership requires a vision that transcends short-term political gains. Badenoch has an opportunity to redefine the immigration debate by advocating for policies that are inclusive, humane, and economically sound. She could address legitimate concerns about integration and resource allocation without resorting to divisive rhetoric or draconian measures.

Her focus should be on strengthening systems to manage migration effectively, rather than imposing arbitrary caps that could harm the economy and tarnish the UK’s reputation as an open and welcoming society.

It is bad enough that Kemi Badenoch, the daughter of immigrants, seeks to tighten immigration laws in ways that may shut the door on others like her. But it would be worse if her policies undermine the very fabric of diversity and opportunity that has made Britain a global powerhouse.

Migration is not a problem to be solved but a reality to be managed wisely. Badenoch must recognize that her legacy will not be defined by how she restricts immigration but by how she fosters a society where everyone, regardless of origin, can contribute and thrive.

The world is watching, and history will judge.

It has been long since I saw anything like it. Since last week, when the Senate turned down objections from some members and [hurriedly] admitted Federal Inland Revenue Service [FIRS] Chairman Zach Adedeji and other experts [interested parties, is more like it] to brief it on the contents of the four tax reform bills lying before it, a clerical and social media storm enveloped Northern Nigeria this past weekend. Leading Muslim clerics all over the region converted their pulpits during last Friday’s congregational prayers to lambast Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, who chaired that particular Senate session [with Senate President Godswill Akpabio strategically absent], for allowing in the government officials to brief the Senate when it was not on the order paper.

Sure, it was a curious thing to do. DSP later explained that most Nigerians, including many members of the National Assembly, had either not read nor comprehended the fine details of the bills in question and the input of experts would therefore help. That is true, except that the right time to call them in would have been when the relevant legislative committees hold public hearings on the bills. This is not far away, since the Senate passed the bills for second reading, after which they will be referred to committees and all stakeholders can then come forward to make their inputs.

So why should such a small procedural misstep ignite so much passion and allegations? Well, because, in the past few weeks, the impression has been created, in the North if not in the rest of the country, that the Tinubu Presidency is hell-bent on ramming these tax reforms bills through, for that matter in great haste. Back in October, a major meeting of Northern state governors, traditional rulers and other community leaders objected to the bills and feared that they could reduce the Northern states’ takings from Value Added Tax, VAT, which today is a major contributor to the Federation Account.

Quite likely, the Presidency viewed that stance as political blackmail and proceeded with the bills, though that was unwise. Governors and traditional rulers from 19 states out of 36 is a sizeable number. Nor are they known rabble-rousers. Thirteen of the 19 Northern governors belong to the President’s own party, APC, which suggests that there was no harmony even within the ruling party on these bills. In Nigeria, state governors are the most politically potent persons after the Presidency. APC has a total of twenty state governors in the whole country, and if 13 of them sign on to the dissatisfaction, there will be no harmony even in the party’s National Executive Committee meeting.

To boot, they were joined in the protest by the North’s most prominent traditional rulers, including Sultan of Sokoto, Shehu of Borno, Emir of Zazzau, Etsu Nupe and Ohinoyi of Igbirra. Now, one may suspect that traditional rulers only do the bidding of governors. I don’t think that is the case because in recent decades, these traditional rulers include retired Army Generals, retired Police, Customs and Security Service commanders, big businessmen and even a professor or two. They are strong enough to pull back if they felt that the governors were taking them for a political ride.

The cross-party nature of the gathering should have also given the Presidency a cause for pause. Five of the Northern governors are PDP members, including the Chairman of the PDP Governors Forum. One of them belongs to NNPP. All these non-APC governors have hot political issues with APC chapters in their states, so their coming together with APC governors on this issue should be noteworthy. At the very least, the views expressed by this gathering deserved engagement, education, enlightenment and persuasion in order to dispel their fears regarding the bills. As far as we could see publicly, nothing of the sort happened, though there may have been some moves underground.

Perhaps the Presidency did not want to cave in to the Northern leaders’ demand on these bills so as not to be seen in the West, and in the South generally, as having caved in to the North. Even if that is the case, it was much less understandable that the Presidency ignored the advice of the National Economic Council [NEC], chaired by the Vice President, to withdraw the bills from the National Assembly and allow room for more consultation. NEC includes all the country’s 36 governors. Its resolution was read by the Governor of Oyo State, who is not known to be anyone’s lackey and who in fact crossed party lines to help APC candidate Tinubu to win his key state in last year’s elections. Besides, no state governor has as yet come out to say he did not agree with the resolution. All they asked for was time for more consultation.

While many members of the National Assembly have been described as bench warmers and the Deputy Senate President himself suspects that many members have either not read nor understood the contents of the bills, state governors are on the whole of higher quality than the MPs. One of them is one of the country’s leading economists. Governors have more staff help than MPs, and almost every one of them must have assigned his commissioners and advisers to brief him on the implications of the tax reform bills with respect to his state. Besides, the Federal Government’s key economic managers, including the Finance, Budget and Planning Ministers and Governor of the Central Bank all sit in the NEC. The Vice President, who chairs it, is no push over in these matters either, as a former banker, state finance commissioner, two-term governor and senator.

It was shocking indeed when the Presidency publicly declared that it will not heed the request of NEC, the country’s highest economic advisory body, and that the bills should instead continue through the legislative process! Now, in a clime where the legislature has demonstrated visible capacity and independence, that would have been okay, because the MPs themselves can be relied upon to scrutinize the bills and admit the feelings of their constituents. I was once part of a media team that visited a US Congresswoman in Washington D.C, who chaired a House sub-committee. She told us that she had forty aides, including many researchers and pollsters. The latter constantly conduct opinion polls in her constituency to find out what her constituents are thinking before she takes a position on any bill.

Here in Nigeria, MPs may not have professional pollsters as aides [the “opinion polls” published ahead of last year’s elections were a fiasco] but they sure have their traditional means of knowing the feelings of their constituents. Quite often, they ignore these locals’ feelings in order to ingratiate themselves with powers in the Presidency or the party leadership. Why because, these powers can more predictably ensure an MP’s return to his seat in the next election than the feelings of his constituents. State governors are however a different kettle of fish. In most cases they were the ones that nominated, supported, bankrolled and in some cases, rammed MPs through to their seats. They could also undo them in the next election. When the Presidency and an MP’s state governor are pulling in different directions on this matter, then he or she is caught between a rock and a hard place.

When you take all these pieces of the jigsaw puzzle into consideration, it was inevitable that the impression was created in many minds that the Tinubu Presidency is bent on ramming through these four tax bills through the National Assembly irrespective of anyone else’s feelings. Such a stance naturally breeds suspicions. Matters are not helped by the widespread feeling that the current National Assembly is a rubber stamp which always does the President’s bidding. However useful and beneficial to the country a leader believes a certain measure is, it is a sacred duty to educate and enlighten citizens. An American professor who visited Nigeria fifteen years ago said the fulfilment of democracy is the process, not the outcome. If all the correct procedures are followed without manipulation, then democratic expectations are fulfilled even if the final outcome turns out to be wrong. Adopting a know-it-all stance could prove to be ruinous in the long run.

The little public debate on the substance of these bills so far has already thrown up issues which, with wisdom and national peace in mind, could be artfully resolved. For example, the point has been made about the calculation of VAT for derivation purposes and the fact that big companies lump up all the tax and pay it at the location of their head offices. That is a point to ponder. The point has also been made that states that ban alcohol consumption in their states still benefit from VAT collected from it during the sharing process. As the former chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission [RMAFC] explained two years ago, alcohol is not an important VAT contributor as some people think. Still, VAT from alcohol could be removed from the whole collection and shared to only states where alcohol consumption is legal [never mind it is still consumed even in the states where alcohol  is banned, especially in mammy markets adjoining military barracks].

This brings me to another aspect of the methods being used by both proponents and opponents in this tax reform bills imbroglio. Personally, I do not support the religious blackmail tactics often employed by clerics in the course of political debates. Of course they are citizens too and they are entitled to their views, but I don’t think the pulpit is the right place to campaign against a non-moral, non-religious piece of legislation. A  friend and colleague of mine will remember that two years ago, I criticised a column article he wrote in which he described our senators as “agents of Satan” because they passed a Corporate Affairs Commission amendment law that Pentecostal churches’ leaders did not like. Why not simply go to the public hearings and make rational, instead of sentimental arguments?

Personally, I do not support the clerics’ all-out assault against DSP Barau Jibrin. But since my view is totally unlikely to influence them, my advice to the Presidency is to soften on this matter and not put pressure on DSP, House Speaker and other MPs, especially those from the North, to ram through these bills without further consultation and consensus building. Otherwise, it could win the battle and lose the war, because in the medium and long run, its friends in the region will be politically ruined. 

In reflecting on Nigeria’s leadership journey, Bishop Matthew Kukah, a Catholic priest, activist, and philosopher, delivers a searing observation: “Almost every leader who came to power did so by accident.” With these words, he stirred an hornets’ nest, igniting a spirited discourse on the nation’s perennial struggle with leadership.

Kukah’s critique strikes a resonant chord with voices like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who has long lamented the opportunistic nature of Nigeria’s leadership selection. It also echoes the trenchant wisdom of Chinua Achebe, who famously diagnosed the nation’s ailment in The Trouble with Nigeria: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership.” Achebe’s words, though decades old, still carry the weight of an unheeded warning, underscoring the cyclical nature of Nigeria’s governance woes.

This column seeks to interrogate Kukah’s provocative theory, dissect its implications for governance, and chart pathways to reform the nation’s leadership recruitment process. At the core of this analysis lies an urgent imperative: to confront the systemic failures that perpetuate unprepared leaders and to cultivate mechanisms that nurture visionary and capable stewards. For Nigeria to transcend the quagmire of accidental leadership, the nation must embrace deliberate, transformative change—one that prioritises competency, character, and a clear sense of purpose over happenstance.

A shared understanding of an accidental leader would be helpful in the interrogation of what the bishop said. An accidental leader, from base understanding, is one who came to the office without requisite training or necessary preparation. It refers to a scenario where individuals ascend to power without adequate preparation, experience, or strategic vision. This phenomenon is not unique to Nigeria but is particularly pervasive in its political landscape, where political actors often emerge through circumstantial opportunities rather than deliberate grooming or merit-based processes. These leaders frequently lack the fundamental skills necessary for effective governance, resulting in poor decision-making, reliance on narrow circles of influence, and an inability to address critical national challenges. For instance, between 1999 and 2023 under the present democratic era, Nigeria experienced significant challenges under leaders like Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who, despite his integrity, struggled with health issues that hindered governance, and Goodluck Jonathan, who admitted he was unprepared when he unexpectedly became President following Yar’Adua’s death. Same goes for President Buhari.

Accidental leaders differ significantly from prepared leaders in several ways. They often lack a clear vision, operate without a coherent strategy or strategic plan, and struggle with effective execution. Their knowledge is limited, they are indecisive, and they rarely take responsibility for their actions. These leaders typically have a narrow circle of influence, and dishonesty can further undermine their leadership. In the specific context of Nigeria, unprepared leaders tend to exhibit unpatriotic and nepotistic tendencies. Their shallow understanding of the nation’s challenges often leads to misguided solutions to critical developmental issues.

Governance under such circumstances often results in short-term thinking, nepotism, and an indifference to the broader national interest. These outcomes are reflected in Nigeria’s inability to meet key development indicators. For example, as of 2024, over 40% of the population lives below the poverty line, and unemployment hovers at 33.3%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. These figures are further compounded by insecurity, with over 10,000 people reported killed in banditry and insurgency-related violence annually in recent years. Such statistics reveal the broader implications of accidental leadership: leaders unprepared for the demands of office often fail to tackle systemic issues or establish the conditions necessary for sustained national growth. This not only hampers economic development but also undermines social cohesion and national unity, perpetuating a cycle of underdevelopment and instability.

By contrast, prepared leaders with prior exposure to governance, leadership roles, or structured mentorship are equipped with clear goals, strategic vision, and the capacity for effective policy execution. These leaders inspire confidence and focus on long-term national development, offering a beacon of hope for the country’s future. Examining global leadership recruitment systems highlights the importance of grooming leaders systematically. For example, the United Kingdom’s parliamentary system emphasizes years of experience in lower offices, enabling figures like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair to rise with proven credentials and a record of policy achievements. Similarly, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew transformed his country from a struggling island to a global hub through decades of planning and visionary leadership. In China, the Communist Party systematically grooms leaders over decades, requiring them to serve in various regional and national roles before ascending to top positions. Xi Jinping, for instance, served in provincial leadership for years, gaining experience in administration, policy formulation, and implementation before becoming president. These systems contrast starkly with Nigeria’s, where party loyalty and opportunism often outweigh competence.

In Nigeria, the historical trajectory of leadership since 1999 reveals a pattern of accidental leaders propelled to power by chance, opportunism, or external influence. The result has been inconsistent policies, failure to diversify the economy, and an inability to tackle pressing issues such as unemployment and insecurity. President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015–2023) is a case in point: while his initial election was greeted with optimism, delays in forming a cabinet and a lack of clear economic direction in the early years of his presidency hindered his administration’s ability to tackle pressing issues. At the state level, governance mirrors this trend. Many governors have been criticised for prioritizing political survival over developmental goals, exacerbating local challenges. These failures manifest in poor policy formulation, resource mismanagement, misplaced priorities and a lack of continuity in governance.

Prepared leaders globally, such as Mahatma Gandhi, Lee Kuan Yew, and Nelson Mandela, exemplify how strategic preparation, mentorship, and clear vision can transform nations. Gandhi’s nonviolent resistance and vision for a unified India, Yew’s emphasis on meritocracy and strategic governance that turned Singapore into an economic powerhouse, and Mandela’s post-apartheid leadership that emphasized reconciliation and institution-building, creating a framework for South Africa’s fragile democracy, are all powerful examples. Joe Biden’s decades of experience in U.S. politics prepared him to handle complex governance challenges, including navigating the post-COVID-19 pandemic economic recovery. Conversely, accidental leaders often produce short-lived policies, foster corruption, and exacerbate socio-economic instability. Haiti, for instance, has suffered from a cycle of accidental leadership, perpetuating political instability and underdevelopment. These global examples underscore the need for Nigeria to systematically groom leaders who can navigate complex governance challenges and build long-term resilience.

The leadership crisis in Nigeria is rooted in systemic and structural issues. Party structures prioritize loyalty over competence, and electoral processes often reward popularity rather than merit. In the 2023 elections, many elected officials were chosen based on party endorsements rather than competence, independent credibility or a track record of public service. Weak institutions further fail to hold leaders accountable, and divisive ethnic and religious politics prioritize sectional interests over national unity. These factors are compounded by public apathy: a 2023 survey by Afrobarometer revealed that only 34% of Nigerians believe their votes influence governance outcomes, highlighting a lack of faith in the political system. This disconnection fosters a cycle where citizens disengage from political processes, reducing accountability and enabling the emergence of incompetent leaders.

It is established that there exists a strong correlation between leadership preparation and performance. Going by this measure, it is not in dispute that most of our elected and appointed leaders have not performed in office. How can we improve the quality and preparedness of those who attain public office? This should be our preoccupation for now. Does Nigeria have trained or prepared leaders? Where and when do leaders train for their role?  Are they motivated? These questions merit serious consideration.

To address these challenges and create a system that produces prepared leaders, leadership training and development must become institutional priorities. Establishing leadership academies, such as the proposed National Institute for Leadership Development, could help build competence. Incorporating leadership education into school curricula and creating mentorship programs can also build a pipeline of skilled leaders. Institutional reforms are critical, including strengthening electoral integrity to prioritise merit-based selection and enhancing transparency mechanisms to evaluate leaders’ preparedness and performance. For instance, adopting a primary debate system like those in the U.S. could help assess candidates’ policy depth. Citizen engagement is equally vital; educating the public on the importance of leadership quality and encouraging active participation in political processes can drive demand for visionary leadership.

The debate on whether leadership is an innate or a skill that can be learned underscores the importance of structured training. While some argue that leadership is a natural trait, examples from global systems such as Singapore and China’s meritocratic model, and Britain’s parliamentary system suggest that systematic preparation enhances governance effectiveness. In Nigeria, most leaders lack innate qualities and formal training, perpetuating systemic failures. Developing platforms for systematic leadership grooming, such as state-level training programs for young politicians, is essential.

Bishop Kukah’s assertion about accidental leadership underscores a fundamental issue in Nigeria’s governance: the prevalence of leaders emerging from flawed recruitment processes that favour expediency over competence. This phenomenon has entrenched systemic challenges, as unprepared leadership often leads to poor governance. By contrast, global examples illustrate the transformative impact of well-prepared leaders. For Nigeria to progress, it must prioritise leadership development, reform political structures to value competence, and actively involve citizens in cultivating visionary leaders. Addressing this leadership vacuum is essential for the country to realise its full potential.

The Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), has warned that corruption in the judiciary and the abuse of power can contribute to the breakdown of the rule of law and diminish public confidence in the judicial system.

Fagbemi stated this in his keynote address at The Gavel International yearly lecture 2024, themed “The Judiciary as the Last Hope of the Common Man: Media and Legal Perspectives,” in Lagos.

According to him, when the judiciary fails in its duties, it erodes public trust and hampers social progress in the country.

He stressed that the integrity and efficacy of the justice system largely shape the future of a nation.

Besides, he warned that if the judiciary fails to create an equitable future, society could face long-term consequences, including a rise in civil unrest and a diminished belief in the legal system as a vehicle for justice.

The minister emphasised that the judiciary’s role is foundational to the maintenance of justice and societal harmony, saying that its principal function is to provide fair and impartial resolutions to disputes, interpret laws, and safeguard individual rights.

Fagbemi, who noted that the Nigerian judiciary is one of the most respected in Africa, warned that protracted trials not only delay justice but also discourage individuals from pursuing their cases, particularly when they feel their grievances will never be resolved.

He explained that such delays can erode trust in the judiciary, as people may begin to feel that justice is inaccessible or ineffective.
In his lecture, former General Secretary of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Dele Adesina (SAN), described the judiciary as an institution he is committed to defending and advancing at all times.

Adesina said the judiciary is not only the last hope of the common man but also the last hope of the uncommon, educated or illiterate, rich or poor, as well as the government and the governed.

He stated that the golden rule of practice is that the media must not make any comments that could prejudice a fair trial.

“The media should be wary of this. Trial by the media in criminal matters prejudices the minds of the populace and leads them to hold the court in contempt and dishonour when it ultimately reaches a conflicting or different verdict.

“More often than not, allegations of compromise and corruption are made against the judge. This is very unhealthy for the development of our legal system and judicial process.

“Our media can serve the judiciary better by promoting quality analysis of court judgments by knowledgeable individuals. This can be done through lectures of this nature, analysis by informed individuals, or the publication of journals,” he said.

[Guardian]