You cross the line with the Obidients, as the supporters of Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate in the February 25th presidential election call themselves, if you query the credentials of their Al Capone or disagree with their narrative of the presidential election, especially its outcome. If you say Obi did not win or disagree with the riotous way they have since comported themselves, they will abuse the daylight out of you. They lack finesse. They lack civility. Be they educated, be they stark illiterate; their tactic is the same. Age and accomplishments do not in any way temper their rage. I have had my fair share of their effusive gibberish and it is a fearful lesson on how rapidly and unwholesomely people can degenerate once they suffer the seizure of vile propaganda, the type that Adolf Hitler, his propaganda chief Josef Goebbels, and the Nazis unleashed on the world during their Nazi rule in Germany, leading to the horrific termination of the lives of six million Jews in the most horrible circumstances that triggered the Second World War of 1939 – 1945 that cost a staggering 56 million lives. It is certain the Obidients, the way they have comported themselves, will not mind throwing Nigeria into another civil war – but for the matured way other Nigerians have responded to their acts of provocation. Little wonder, they are now called the Obi-Idiots or Obidiots because the best of their arguments even by the best of their brains make no sense at all. And the reason is quite simple: Any edifice constructed with spittle will be brought down by dews!

The latest victim of the rage of the Obi-Idiots is Nobel Laureate, Prof. Wole Soyinka, the same man who spent two years in detention during the Nigerian civil war because he took the side of the Igbo against the Federal Government of Nigeria. Soyinka recounted his loss during the detention thus: “I lost time; so many things (got) damaged. So many creative possibilities (were) retarded”. For speaking out against the excesses of the Obi-Idiots, they have, in the past few days, ceaselessly and mercilessly subjected WS, as Soyinka is fondly called, to withering attacks. This is a classical case of a Pharaoh that knew not Joseph! If we can excuse the army of uncouth Igbo traders, IPOB rag-rags, and the ill-educated and misdirected elites, what of the older generations of Igbo who ought to still remember the heroics of Soyinka on the side of the Igbo during the civil war? Someone said Soyinka crossed the line with the Igbo that day in 1986 when he, and not the Igbo’s own literary icon, Chinua Achebe, made history as the first Black man to win the Nobel prize in Literature! The Igbo will never forget and they will never forgive that “effrontery” as someone described it. Can this be true? The likes of Pa Ayo Adebanjo and his errant faction of Afenifere should watch it. The whip used to scourge the first wife lies in wait for the second! Bishop David Oyedepo of the Winners Chapel is, at the moment, paying his own price for allowing Obi to seemingly rope him in into an embarrassing telephone conversation controversy. Who is next?

Two analyses that clearly affirmed the widely accepted belief that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the said election and that Peter Obi did not, and could not have won it have been made by two other eminent personalities, one a foreigner and the other a Nigerian but both of them knowledgeable and illustrious. Hear them: “Professor of Law, Itse Sagay, SAN, has said that Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the presidential election due to three factors. Sagay on Sunday during a Channels Television interview monitored by DAILY POST said youths criticising the polls are ill-experienced in Nigeria’s elections. According to him, the February 25 presidential election is credible. Sagay also declared that those claiming electoral manipulations do not have evidence to show. ‘Most people who commented on the election are probably the youths who have not witnessed many elections in the history of Nigeria. This is the best election we have ever had, particularly those conducted by politicians. I believe this election was controlled by ethnicity, religion and capacity to organise. If you look at the results carefully, the man who performed credibly across board is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There is no evidence of manipulation as claimed. Can you imagine Tinubu losing in Lagos State? That shows you the extent of credibility of the polls’”, he said.

Sagay has been an active pro-democracy crusader who, even as chairman of the ruling APC’s Presidential Advisory Committee against Corruption, was vocal in his criticism of the Buhari administration. The next personality is an American; hear him as he was reported by Premium Times: “How Tinubu won presidential election – American Observer. Johnnie Carson says Bola Tinubu has three things that his opponents did not have going to the presidential election. An American diplomat, and a foreign observer in the 2023 general elections, Johnnie Carson, says three factors were responsible for the victory of the President-elect, Bola Tinubu. Mr. Carson, an Executive Officer of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), spoke in Washington DC when the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, paid an official visit to the institute to engage on the concluded elections. The diplomat said he co-led the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI), International Election Observation Mission to Nigeria during the elections. According to him, Mr. Tinubu, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, undoubtedly won the polls and will be sworn-in come May 29, except something happens dramatically with the court. ‘Do you know why he won? He got the money, he had the best national organisation that worked for him and the ground game’, he said.

Mr. Carson emphasised that for a candidate to win an election in Nigeria, like a lot of democracy in the globe, the three things, including substantial and significant financial resources, were needed. Others, according to him, are a national working organisation and a grassroots acceptance. He said while Mr. Tinubu had all the three criteria in his kitty during the polls, the other major contenders did not have all. Speaking specifically on the Labour Party presidential candidate, Mr. Carson said, ‘On the part of Mr. Peter Obi, he did not have the ground game and a national organisation. Obi is, however, very popular, particularly among the young, educated, urban and sophisticated’, he said. Mr. Carson said the presidential election was one of the most competitive polls in Nigeria and in Africa. He, however, observed that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) needed to up its game. ‘Nigeria deserves the very best electoral process. To me, the problem is not with Tinubu and the other candidates’”, he said.

I agree with the above assessments of the election; it was not perfect because there are no perfect elections anywhere but it was a fair reflection of the will of the electorate. It was also a marked improvement on previous elections here. I was particularly impressed with the emergence of what seemed like the long-awaited Third Force in Nigerian politics but from the starting line, I had my reservations about its leadership. And my worst fears eventually came to pass with the kind of selfish and I-alone leadership provided by Peter Obi. Like the Ghanaian novelist, Ayi Kwei Armah, lamented in “The Beautyful Ones are not yet born” the dream of a movement died a premature death in the hands of Peter Obi and his Obi-Idiots. The hopes of a rainbow coalition were dashed with an ethnic group appropriating what was meant to be a national effort. They acted selfish! They counted their chicks before they were hatched. And they lost everything! Was I surprised? Obi’s antecedents showed he could not give what he did not have but frustration with the status quo was what drove millions of Nigerians to cling to the straw that Obi offered as hope for the teeming millions of our youths to escape the rudderless leadership that has been the bane of this country. But to the discernible, Obi was not the answer. Yes, we have a problem but Obi, clearly, is not the solution. Nothing in his private and public life suggests that he is the Messiah that this country needs, to quote the very words of his backer, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, which he used during the June 12, 1993 saga to describe the winner of the presidential election of that year, Chief MKO Abiola.

Choosing Obi last February would have been tantamount to jumping from a frying pan right into the fire. Take, for example, the composition of his defence team to the tribunal where he is challenging the result of the presidential election. The first list he released was virtually all Igbo. With an outcry that this man’s nepotism will be worse than Buhari’s, he was forced to amend the list! Certainly, replacing Buhari with someone worse than Buhari will tip this country over the edge!

I listened to Senator Jarigbe Agom of Cross River North a couple of days ago on the Morning Show of ARISE TV Morning Show, where he opined that competence and capacity should dictate who becomes the Senate President, and not the region. He added that the Senate should go for the best candidate without much consideration for their religion. A day earlier, Senator Ndoma-Egba had opined that the Senate President should be zoned to the South-east in order to appease the zone and perhaps balance the power equation. Both of these persons who spoke are from the South-south zone and ordinarily are expected to understand the geopolitical ingredients that are desired, to balance the algorithms of power; unfortunately, they fall short.

The two issues they raised border on geopolitics and religion; two dominant issues that have become  recurring decimals in the politics of our country. For a plural country like Nigeria, having multiple and multi-dimensional interests competing for attention within the subnationals, it is of political benefit to ensure participation, inclusiveness and balance of power and sentiments to promote a culture of belongingness and trust, so as to minimise the frictions and tempers in the polity. Balancing those factors should not be anchored on the plank of a sense of entitlement, but on the preponderance and quality of the arguments of the various competing zones, with a view to deepening our democracy and national growth. 

The 10th Assembly Senate Presidency has expectedly become another thorny issue following interests from the respective geopolitical zones; and an understanding of the prevailing sentiments and emotions within the polity would help power players know how to bequeath and accord power across board. When the then APC presidential candidate, now President-elect emerged in 2022, he chose a fellow Muslim as his running mate. He altered the Muslim/Christian doctrine. He stated unequivocally that the rationale for his choice was based on his understanding of the prevailing issues and how he will garner votes at the elections, and not an Islamisation agenda as suspected. The protestations that attended his choice were from within and outside of the ruling party. Close associates of his, deserted him as his voice got drowned in the cacophony of voices especially from the Christian community, who saw the move as a deliberate affront to them. This reality also boosted the chances of a Southern Peter Obi, a Christian, who indubitably flourished his campaign on the theme of Christianity, even to saying at some point that,  “Christians and the church should take back their country”. This faith and or same faith issue is very sensitive and we must be careful in handling it. 

The complexities associated with balancing power in plural countries or societies are multifarious. In any plural society, both national and subnational entities must feel a sense of inclusion and regard for their concerns in the process, in any power distribution activity. In the case of Nigeria, there is always the tendency to view Nigeria from only a  tripod configuration, Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa, thus subsuming other interests as though their interests are secondary. It is a wrong-headed reading of the entire gamut of minority rights. In the context of the 10th Assembly Senate Presidency, the issue of geopolitical balancing is both auspicious and compelling. The issue of religion is also important. Having a president and vice of the country, of same faith, being first and second citizens, it is expected that a Christian Senate President and perhaps the Speaker of the House of Representatives will be of other faiths; except if we deliberately want to stir the hornet’s nest to provoke avoidable sentiments and emotions. I don’t think the President-elect and his deputy would want to travel that route, knowing full well that they both need a stable polity to stimulate good governance to deliver on their electoral promises. The geopolitical zone to be most considered and her merits is also important. I am advocating for the South-South zone to be accorded the position. 

The South-south zone contributed so much to the success of the ruling APC in the last election. This zone has always been the stronghold of the opposition PDP, but in this 2023 election, the ruling APC was able to make a foothold in the zone, topping Rivers State votes, and coming second in the other five states with over 45% of the votes. That was audacious! The South-east zone had a different ball game. The presidential election outcome was abysmal for the ruling APC in all the five states of the South-east. In the fullness of such ridiculous outcome, Senators from the ruling party emerged, scoring as much as 42,000 votes in some cases, and others even more; but at the presidential election, they abandoned their candidate, Asiwaju Tinubu, in what I considered  a conspiracy to humiliate him. The votes from all the five states of the South-east hover around 80,000. When one considers that both Senate and presidential elections held on the same day, hour, and minute and in a seamless process, the theme of conspiracy becomes obvious. Furthermore, the South-east zone senators have had the opportunity of being Senate President on five different occasions in the last 24 years; Enwerem, Okadigbo, Wabara, Anyim and Nnamani are all from the South-east. Some other senators from the South-east have served as Deputy Senate President for 12 years also. It means they have dominated the Senate for circa, 20 years. Bidding for the position at this time would amount to taking the handshake beyond the elbow; and ask yourselves, if the APC had lost the presidency, as the South-east rooted for, would they be asking to become Senate President?

I do understand that there is no morality in politics because of some bizarre realities which have become the second nature of politics. But, there has to be balance of power to minimise the seen and unseen mitigating factors that stand against building a cohesive and stable system. Our power play needs to stimulate constructive engagement, collective bargaining, conversational politics, thus, good governance and wholesome progress. The South-south zone is undoubtedly the resource base of this nation. It is of utmost importance to deliberately and consciously factor in the interest of this zone now to avoid protestations and vibrations that may hurt the zone and the nation at large. Also, the character, content and antecedents of the individual for this position must be scrutinised for performance and sound leadership. Merely asking for the Senate Presidency with a sense of entitlement, is to me, a depraved assessment of the issues that have so far dictated our collective engagement and led us to where we are. The South-south geopolitical zone has persons of capacity and sound leadership orientation who can fit the bill. An individual who would be perspicacious in leadership of lawmaking, not allowing the assembly be dubbed a rubber-stamp one. They must be someone who understands the political dynamics in the country and can connect to them. The individual must be generational in thoughts to fit into the expectations of a contemporary digital age in the country. The South-south, unlike Senator Jarigbe Agom opined, parades eminently qualified persons who can up the ante in the Senate and constructively partner the executive arm of government to deepen democracy through lawmaking and other relevant responsibilities. 

I have deliberately left out the North-west zone for obvious reasons: It is a predominantly Muslim dominated zone, and except the APC would want to sustain the narrative of Islamisation, nobody from the North-west zone should contemplate joining the race. Nigeria is very fragile at this time and the need to take selfless and patriotic decisions so as to stabilise the country is germane. The North-west zone has also enjoyed the privilege of producing our outgoing president for eight years; she should settle for the Deputy Senate President, while the South-east should settle for the Deputy Speaker. The North-central should have Speakership of the lower house while every other principal position should be shared altruistically to accommodate competing interests.

Within the South-south geopolitical zone, we have a ranking Senator, Distinguished Senator Godswill Obot Akpabio, of quintessential and cerebral orientation, noted for quality service delivery and superlative performance; his antecedents are verifiable and he can deliver on the expectations of the 10th Assembly. It is not for nothing they call him “uncommon transformer”. Senator Akpabio, is not only a team player, he is also very astute, a reformer and transformational leader. He is reputed for several achievements both as the Governor of Akwa-Ibom state and Minister of the Niger-Delta Ministry. In the eight years he served as Governor of Akwa Ibom State, the state became a huge construction site, turning a typical agrarian community to an urban centre with several infrastructural projects ranging from Airport, Hospitals, schools, hospitality business, human capital development, empowerment programmes, and to several interventionist projects that were started and fully  completed under him, that have stimulated and anchored the economic growth of the state.

 As a Minister of the Niger-Delta Affairs, within three years, he completed the NDDC Headquarters that had been abandoned  since 1994, relocated the NDDC to its new office, built roads, built barracks and several other projects of economic value to the people of the oil rich region as well as starting and completing a forensic audit of the commission. Akpabio has the temperament and comportment to serve in the capacity of the senate president with equanimity and doggedness. Akpabio is a man of grit and courage, he has charisma and applies intelligence. He will deploy his huge political goodwill to balancing all the factors across the country.

Also from the South-south, is former Governor of Edo state, former labour leader, and former National Chairman of the ruling APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole. Though a first timer to the Senate, he’s going to be one of the huge assets of the Senate either even in the Senate President capacity, if the rules permit; and or in other capacities thrust upon him. Oshiomhole is a resource material any day, any time. He’s deep in knowledge of contemporary issues, and understands the place of leadership in any human endeavour. Comrade Oshiomhole is a leader to reckon with having moved the ante in Edo State from 2008 to 2016 which till date represents the only evidence of growth of that state. His sense of service delivery has remained nonpareil. As a governor, his performance in Edo state was exceptional causing his peoples love for him to be perennial. As a product of struggle, Oshiomhole is a good asset in any institution he belongs. As we look forward to an interesting 10th Assembly, it is expected that there will be a healthy interplay of forces that would help to deepen democracy and consolidate on our laws for national growth and prosperity. 

The 10th Assembly is expected to be forward-looking and utility-driven. It should robustly dissect and interrogate issues with a sense of patriotism and not parochialism. It must earn the support and respect of the populace to avoid the stigmatisation of a rubber-stamp assembly. Its relationship with other arms of government must be constructive and objective, and the overall interest of the country must be uppermost in its politics of lawmaking. There is currently, national apathy and broken tongues and tribes. There is also lack of national cohesion and conversation.

The 10th Assembly must create platforms to engage Nigerians, stimulate national discourse and promote a sense of ownership across board. They must come up with laws that are therapeutic to our national healing process. The buy-in of everyone to create a sense of collective engagement that will accommodate all is highly needed; be they minority and or majority groups. The 10th Assembly and the APC must get it right; and allowing the South-south to preside over the 10th National Assembly will be the first step in this right direction.

*Afegbua, a former Commissioner for Information in Edo State and political analyst

Following a viral video in which police escorts attached to a prominent Kano-based musician, Dauda Adamu Kahutu Rarara were shooting bullets into the air like village hunters, authorities in Abuja have waded in. “The NPF has condemned the unprofessionalism and act of indiscipline displayed by the policemen caught in the video that is trending where some policemen were seen firing shots to rob the ego and hype a musician in Kano city”, according to a statement by the Force spokesman, Olumuyiwa Adejobi. “The police officers have been identified and arrested. They will be brought to the force headquarters for an interview and necessary disciplinary action. Such an act is unpoliced and cannot be condoned.”

Whatever “unpoliced” may mean, it is unfortunate that this misuse of police officers persists. And that is because those who should protect the dignity of their rank and file have commercialised personnel deployment. Today, a Force that is constitutionally responsible for law and order has become one in which its rank and file are deployed to run errands for whoever can pay for their services. The two orderlies of Rarara may face disciplinary action but that amounts to treating symptoms rather than the disease. I don’t know of any other country where such high numbers of police personnel are deployed on guard duties.  

If we scratch the surface, we may discover that the mutual distrust and barely disguised animosity between the police and ordinary citizens they serve is traceable to low self-esteem and suspicion that their worth and work are not appreciated. Yet, those whose duty it is to enhance their dignity are the very people who turn their men and officers into servants of the high and mighty of our society.  

In a recent story, ‘Insecurity: Worries over growing number of police escorts attached to VIPs’, The Guardian newspaper raised serious issues about police personnel attached to private businessmen, political appointees, actresses and even their children, noting that this security protection is at the expense of citizens and has become a public nuisance. “In traffic situations, ‘the big man or woman’, or their children and nannies, could be seen seated in the vehicles behind. Trucks in quasi-military motorcade trail them. Inside are police officers, on secondment to these Very Important Persons (VIPs). At traffic bottlenecks, these officers, armed with AK-47 rifles slap bonnets of nearby cars, dishing orders to other road users: ‘Move. Clear. Give way’”, according to the report which detailed the ugly scenes many of us experience or witness daily on Nigerian roads.  

For years, despite security challenges that plague the nation, the status symbol in Nigeria is to go about with as many police orderlies as possible. And you don’t even need to hold public office to enjoy such indulgence. Foremost stand-up comedian, Atunyota Alleluya Akpobome, aka Ali Baba, once shared his experience:”I spent three hours today directing traffic on Alfred Rewane Road (Ikoyi, Lagos). The drivers obeyed until three gun trotting policemen jumped down from two escort vehicles… to do their priority traffic control. I told one of the officers to take it easy because if I had not been there helping with the traffic, they wouldn’t have made it this far. ‘Oga dey hurry’, one said. I walked up to the vehicle and asked oga to wind down. But another set of three armed policemen alighted from the escort Prado Jeep by which time the gun brandishing officers had made way for our very important personality…10 security details attached to one man! Anyway, what do I know? Shebi I am just a comedian.” 

In my August 2022 column, ‘Police Orderly, Not Maiguard’, I raised this same issue. A retired Assistant Inspector General of Police (AIG) sent me a note after reading it. “Segun, your column this morning is only for the record, it will not correct the ills. It is a self-inflicted malaise as you rightly pointed out. No IGP, I repeat, no IGP can stop it because none has the balls. We all saw on television the recent burial of the Queen (of England). How many dignitaries did you see with orderlies? And everything went perfectly. The weekend is almost here, go to any socials, you will see the nauseating abuse of police personnel. I have over the years confronted the high echelon of the Force on it. All I am always told is ‘Oga, don’t worry, we are working on it’. Notwithstanding my statutory entitlements regarding orderlies and aides as a retired AIG, I have refused to activate the entitlements. Let them serve the public instead. Segun, I feel both angry and frustrated by what is happening in the police…” 

Like the retired AIG, I too am angry and frustrated. I cannot count the number of columns I have written on this vexatious issue as well as on the need for improved welfare package for the police. But even if I am beginning to sound like a broken gramophone, I will continue to harp on the fact that unless we deal with it, we will never resolve our security challenges. Besides, police personnel are the ones paying the supreme price for serving these big men and women. In a recent piece, ‘Bulletproof Saviour’, I alluded to the five people, among them two policemen, who lost their lives when gunmen ambushed the convoy of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah. Two additional police officers were also injured. A month later, it was the convoy of a popular Christian cleric, Apostle Johnson Suleman, that was attacked by gunmen. Seven people, including three police officers, were killed. At about the same period, the lives of four policemen were gruesomely terminated when the convoy of a former Imo Governor, Ikedi Ohakim was attacked by gunmen in the state. In each of the three incidents, and many similar others that claimed police personnel, the target of the attacks and members of their families escaped because they were being driven in bulletproof vehicles. Meanwhile, their police escorts are condemned to some ramshackle Toyota Hilux vehicles. 

If there is anything that the Rarara video shows, it is that there is a crisis of mission in the police. We can only hope that the next administration will deal with it. And for emphasis, I am rerunning the August 2022 column to insist that our policemen must stay true to their role as law enforcers, not Maiguards! 

As the principal custodian of peace, order and security in a constitutional democracy, no institution is arguably more important than the police. But so abused is this law enforcement authority in Nigeria that most of their personnel have been reduced to playing guard duties for members of the business and political elite. It therefore came as no surprise when the Police Force Headquarters announced last week that one ‘Professor and human rights activist’ as well as her housemaid, brutally assaulted a policewoman “due to the refusal of the orderly to breach professional ethics by carrying out menial and domestic chores at her house.”   

While the said professor and accomplice have been charged to court, I am surprised that the police could publicly express outrage over a self-inflicted problem they have refused to deal with. We must recall that more than a decade ago on 5th April 2012 in Calabar, Cross River State, the then Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Abubakar, warned police orderlies to cease carrying handbags belonging to politicians and others for whom they provide security. In explaining that the duty of an orderly was to ensure the safety and wellbeing of their principal and not to run demeaning errands, Abubakar said, “So, VIPs should take note that when we give them orderlies, they are not supposed to be turned into house boys and house girls.”   

Pushing the responsibility to accord dignity to those being served presupposes a lack of professionalism on the part of their personnel, but police authorities can also not feign ignorance about the abuse to which those personnel are being subjected. And the reputational damage such inflicts on the Police Force. From holding plates of food at parties for fat cats who cannot dish their own meals, to carrying bags at airports, it is as if many of these law enforcement agents have been deployed to run errands for our big men and women. Some orderlies even shine shoes for their principals in the public. And by refusing to streamline the list of those entitled to police/security protection, all manner of people, including renowned ‘419’ fraudsters and kidnappers, go about with police personnel in a status-obsessed society.    

I am delighted that the Police Service Commission (PSC) understands where the problem lies by calling for a review of the operations of the Special Protection Unit (SPU). “The commission frowns at the abuse of police orderlies by Nigerians who now use them as status symbols or convert them to house helps who clean, cook or do menial jobs”, said the PSC in a statement by their spokesman, Ikechukwu Ani, who condemned the attack on the policewoman. “With the security problems ravaging the nation, there is an urgent need to free many police officers loitering in private houses and following big men around.”  

That precisely is the point. Statutorily, only the president, vice-president, governors, local council chairmen, legislative principal officers in the states and at federal level, magistrates and judges are entitled to police protection. But this privilege has over the years been extended to just about anybody who can pay, leaving ever fewer personnel for real police work. Such is the level of degeneration that many go about with contingents of policemen in Toyota Hilux vehicles that have become part of the convoy of every prominent person in Nigeria. To worsen matters, the number of policemen deployed to serve political office holders is mind boggling.   

In April 2017, following a public altercation between the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike and then Inspector General of Police, (IGP), Ibrahim Idris, the Force Headquarters released a statement, apparently oblivious of its implication. Responding to the claim by the governor that the IGP had marked him out for execution, then police spokesman, CSP Jimoh Moshood gave the number of police personnel attached to Wike as 221. The same number serves each of the other 35 governors, according to Jimoh. Highlights he provided were beyond scandalous. “The breakdown is as follows: One ADC (SPO); one CSO (SPO); one Unit Commander (Special Protection Unit) SPO; one Escort Commander (SPO); one Camp Commander (Counter Terrorism Unit) SPO; one Admin officer (SPO) to administer the Police Personnel, 54 Inspectors of Police; 136 Police Sergeants and 24 police corporals,” said Jimoh who concluded the statement with this self-indicting line: “Obviously, the total number of 221 police personnel attached to His Excellency, Mr Nyesom Wike, the Governor of Rivers State, is more than the strength of some Police Area Command formations in some states of Nigeria.”   

I found it quite shocking at the time that the police would publicly admit allocating 221 of their personnel to protect one man in a nation so challenged by insecurity. When you multiply that number for 36 governors and add those allocated to other elected and appointed political office holders at federal and state levels, you get a picture of the number of policemen performing ‘mai guard’ duties. And we have not included those serving bankers, businessmen of all hues, the idle rich and even ‘professors’ in unidentified universities.  

The very idea of using our police personnel as a private army undermines their integrity and self-worth. We need to put an end to this abuse. No case has brought home the illegal use for which many of our policemen are deployed better than the 1st June 2018 shooting at a political rally in Ekiti State by a policeman “attached to 20 PMF, Ikeja Lagos State where he was posted on guard duties”. Although the politician who conspired and removed the said policeman from where he was posted by his squadron commander was said to have been arrested by the police, the fact that nobody has been brought to trial over the incident is telling. Till today, nobody knows the politician concerned and the case has ‘entered voicemail’ as they say.  

To refresh the memory of readers on that sordid episode, the Ekiti State Police Command revealed at the time that the mobile policeman who accidentally shot Senator Opeyemi Bamidele during the All Progressives Congress (APC) rally was on “illegal duty”. According to Caleb Chukwuemeka, a Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), the accused policeman was procured from Lagos to Ekiti State by an unnamed politician. “He is attached to 20 PMF, Ikeja, Lagos State, where he was posted on bank guard duties somewhere in Ikeja. The policeman came on illegal duty to Ekiti State. A politician, who conspired and removed the said policeman from where he was posted by his Squadron Commander and came to Ado-Ekiti with him for an unofficial reason has also been arrested.”  

Who is this politician? What has happened to the arrested policeman? These were questions left hanging while the case was quietly swept under the carpet. In fact, many believe that the response by police authorities to the current case was spurred not by any sense of outrage but rather due to social media interest. That is not good for the police. For the institution to regain public trust, they must begin to deal with the issue that concerns the dignity and welfare of their own personnel. When police personnel begin to perform domestic chores for husbands, wives and concubines of government officials, council chairmen, traditional rulers, celebrities, high net worth individuals etc, it impacts negatively on the image of this critical institution.   

Given the current period of national security emergency, the misuse of police officers and other security outfits should not be allowed to continue. With a police force of approximately 350,000 serving a projected population of about 218 million, Nigeria is far from the United Nations recommended ratio of one policeman to 400 citizens. So, this issue needs to be addressed. Maintaining public order and safety, enforcing the law, and preventing, detecting, and investigating criminal activities are the primary responsibilities of the Police. They cannot play such roles effectively if most of their personnel are running errands, including for those with no visible means of livelihood.  

ENDNOTE: I have nothing more to add! 

• You can follow me on my Twitter handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com 

Donald Trump consolidated his record in demagoguery when he became the first former US president ever to be criminally indicted and arraigned in a Manhattan court on April 4. 

He was the first US president to complain about an election he won and also the first to openly express support for the body-slamming of a reporter. He has the distinction of introducing “shithole countries” into the presidential lexicon. And on top of this improbable political career, Trump is also the first US president to be impeached twice.

With 34 counts of criminal conduct hanging around his neck, mostly charges of fraudulent bookkeeping, it appears that the days of Trump’s improbable political infamy are far from over.

Others have come close. According to a report by TIME, President Ulysses S. Grant was technically the first US president to be arrested for speeding on a horse and buggy in 1872. 

Richard Nixon came very close too. He was forced to resign after the outbreak of Watergate but before he could face potential criminal prosecution, his successor, Gerald Ford, pardoned him.

Bill Clinton also came quite close. He was impeached but was later acquitted, and escaped criminal charges by the seams of his pants, after negotiating for penance in civil damages. 

But Trump, the very epitome of improbability, trumps them all. He is on the verge of outdoing even his own record in demagoguery, yet it is only fair to presume him innocent as he gets his day in court.

As prosecutors negotiated details of Trump’s arraignment with his lawyers, whether or not he would be handcuffed, mug-shot, finger-printed and so on, I kept wondering what would have happened if this surreal drama was playing out in an African country – any African country.

Of course, the process in the US, so far, has been widely praised as the triumph of strong institutions, the model that developing democracies around the world should aspire to. That’s a fair point, even though the trial of former President Jacob Zuma in South Africa, though under different circumstances, was also a significant moment.

Perhaps, it might be useful to inspect this playbook of American exceptionalism a little more. Let’s assume, for example, that on the eve of the 2019 general elections in Nigeria, the government of President Muhammadu Buhari pressed charges against the leader of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar.

The smouldering embers from the spectacular row in 2003 between Abubakar (then the vice president and his boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo) was a big deal then.

The details of that dispute, involving large amounts of public funds, were so messy that if Buhari wanted to embark on a fishing expedition, the government might have found grounds to bring charges. 

And indeed, as if in some form of rehearsal, close associates of Abubakar were questioned, briefly detained and released without charges. Also, whether or not Atiku could travel to the US on account of speculations that the FBI had a warrant of arrest against him in respect of a business transaction with US Congressman, Mr. Williams Jefferson, trended in the runup to the 2019 elections.

It would have taken extraordinary nerve for the government under Buhari to formally bring charges against Abubakar, his main rival and leading opposition candidate on the eve of the elections. And even if Buhari’s government succeeded in doing so, it would have been interesting to hear what the US and other Western countries would have said.

Would they have praised Nigeria as a good example in upholding the rule of law or would such a step have been deemed fraught and politically motivated, especially in light of the pending elections?

I have nothing but contempt for Trump’s politics and style and would be pleased to pave him a road of thorns as he attempts to return to the White House. His presidency was a disaster. 

But fair is fair. It is difficult to imagine that the prosecution would come up with this raft of charges against him – and press them in court now – if he was not interested in running again in the 2024 elections. 

Those who think Nigeria’s scenario cited is far-fetched may wish to consider what is shaping up in Senegal, Nigeria’s western neighbour. In that country, President Macky Sall who has been in power since 2012, has nearly perfected plans to run for a third term in next year’s presidential election in breach of the Constitution. To give the impression that the race against himself would still not be an easy one, however, he is also planning to create his own opposition candidate. 

He has slammed the main opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko, with charges of criminal libel and is determined to produce enough distractions to tie him up in court ahead of the polls.

It may be convenient to argue that Sall is neither Biden, nor Ousmane, Trump. In any case, French-speaking West Africa has been more susceptible to instability and unconstitutional changes in government often triggered by flawed elections.

Yet, it depends on who is making the argument. In the eyes of millions of Trump supporters, there’s hardly a difference between a Sall who fiddles with the Constitution to secure an illegal third term and a Biden on whose watch Trump is facing criminal charges even when President Biden’s private garage is littered with dozens of classified documents shipped off from the White House when he was vice president.

How is the rule of law served when the Department of Justice sleepwalks over dozens of classified documents found in Biden’s garage from the Obama era, while Trump, the leading opposition candidate, is hobbled by criminal charges on the eve of the next general elections?

Unlike obstructionist Trump, Biden has said he would cooperate fully with the Department of Justice. Still, it would be interesting to know how tons of classified documents got to his private think-tank at a time when he had no legal basis to move them out of the White House.

If this were happening in an African country, would the US and its Western allies accept that the incumbent has nothing to do with the trial of the leading opposition candidate; that it is simply the law taking its course?

When matters get to a head in Senegal as may well be the case before the 2024 presidential election, would the US or France have the courage to call out Sall – or perhaps the increasingly authoritarian Sierra Leonean President Julius Maada Bio – for mounting roadblocks in the way of opposition candidates?

It’s easy to yield to the seduction of American exceptionalism. Yet, apart from well-documented, but carefully preserved dark secrets of US waywardness, we have seen, especially in the last 10 years, that the US is not the undimming beacon that it often pretends to be. 

The elections that brought Biden to office were marred by allegations of programmatic flaws. The US must therefore be held to the same standards that it holds the rest of the world.

The trial of Trump on the eve of an election in which he would potentially be running against an incumbent who himself is not exactly smelling of roses, is interesting. It would give the world a good opportunity to see if America practises what it preaches.

Who knows? The improbable Trump may well take demagoguery into the Guinness Book of Records by becoming the first US president to overcome a criminal trial and defeat an incumbent. And even if he doesn’t, he would still have set the record as the first US president who went down trying.

Azu Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP  

In March 2014, at a time Boko Haram terrorism ravaged the country, 12 northern Nigeria governors travelled all the way to Washington D.C. to make a case against President Goodluck Jonathan before his American counterpart Barack Obama. These governors, who got a chance to meet Obama’s National Security Adviser Ms. Susan Rice, accused Jonathan of sponsoring the terrorist attacks. According to media reports—still archived online—Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State launched the attacks by reading a laundry list of the president’s sins to the high-ranking officials attending the meeting. Two governors specifically named as joining Nyako to attack Jonathan were Governors Rabiu Kwankaso of Kano and Kashim Shettima of Borno. It got to the point that the Nigerian Ambassador, Prof. Ade Adefuye, reportedly had to intervene and stop these men from “washing Nigeria’s dirty linen in public.”

If you wondered what the novelist Chimamanda Adichie’s name was doing in the same sentence as that of the vice president-elect, I am sure you made the connections now.

Adichie’s recent open letter to US President Joe Biden highlighting the ill-conduct of the February presidential election did the All Progressives Congress just as dirty as some of them once did Jonathan. While the US government is unlikely to publicly react to the letter, her account still delegitimises a government that characteristically looks to powerful western institutions for legitimacy. Before Adichie’s essay was published, Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, had gone to Washington to market the last election as “the freest and fairest in the history of Nigeria.” For him to feel the need to travel to justify their government to journalists and international observers who must have been following the whole drama online, they must have been quite anxious to be taken seriously. Then came the open letter.

For an incoming presidency already under all kinds of scrutiny, Adichie’s letter must be a body blow. From the frenzied responses and the accompanying hormonal howls from the usual attack hounds, that letter’s contents must have touched their rawest nerve.

Expectedly, they accused her of “colonial mentality,” “anti-patriotism, and of course, “tribalism.” Since we are here, they might as well clarify if Shettima and his jesters’ crew who sidestepped all the local institutions and headed for Washington were on an agenda of decolonisation. And why did they not return there when the government of Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) similarly failed to control banditry? Which patriotic virtues drove Shettima to de-market his president in 2014 but restrained him under Buhari’s debilitating regime? It was all self-serving politics.

The APC and their supporters thundering over Adichie’s letter and the irreverence of the Obidients must combine weak memories with moral inconsistency. From all the noise they have made about Obidients in the past week, one would be forgiven for imagining that an online mob of partisan political supporters is a historically unique phenomenon. They seem to forget that it was that Buhari was once outed for inaugurating a troll farm to battle online opponents and sow discord. Apart from the shadowy ones of the Buhari Media Centre who routinely creep out of the underbelly of the internet to muddy issues, he also appointed a retinue of media aides who probably outnumber his economic team. To justify their salaries and also establish some social relevance, those ones have spent the past eight years identifying and attacking supposed enemies. So how is it possible to have an atmosphere where trolling is accorded presidential gravitas, and you would not have formally created the same enemy you claim you want to destroy? If anything, the online ferocity we are presently seeing owes a lot to the Buhari regime’s formalisation of trolling.

It is amazing how people see Hitler and Mussolini in the Obidients when Buhari’s supporters are those whose election politics have serially inflicted physical violence. In 2011 when Buhari lost the election, they went on a rampage and killed an estimated 800 people. They were the ones who almost killed the man who named his dog “Buhari.” They once attacked Charley Boy in Abuja for protesting against Buhari. In April 2021, two anti-Buhari protesters were whipped in Kogi State by some Buhari supporters. Following that incident, Kogi State officials put an official statement justifying the violence saying, “We are placing it on record that the fanatical following of Mr President by Kogi people is borne out of our faith in his integrity and quality leadership.” How do you expect a society where the state legitimates violence not to face reprisals from those fed up but lacking commensurate political power?

The obvious lesson from all this is that the toxic politics that the APC sowed is overripe, and the rotten fruits are falling on their faces. The weapons of warfare that the APC used against the PDP while it was the “opposition” party are also widely available for those seeking to supplant the APC. Thanks to the internet, we have entered a historical phase where politicians seeking the highest office—and for whom the odds align—will get an online army of supporters to propagate their message and counterbalance those deemed the establishment. Every generation employs the tools at its behest to propagate the politics of its time, and this is no different. As it was in 2015 so is it in 2023 and will likely be in 2031. Unlike earlier eras where self-promoting politicians set up media houses to drown out opponents, social media now grants similar narrative power to people who would otherwise have been unheard. If they can form a mass, they can be heard. And jarring the ears of those inured to chaos entails not just shouting but lots of irreverence to boot.

The less evident part is that vengeful politics has been a good strategy for the APC. If it took Shettima from Borno to Aso Rock, it must have some viability. And if it works for them, what motivation do they have to give it up? And if those tactics work for one side, what stops the other from appropriating them?

To maintain their hold on power, they must keep holding up the specter of “the enemy” so that their supporters can concentrate their primal energies on trying to destroy it. But they must also be discovering how terribly exhausting such venomous politics can be. I am amused some aides of the incoming president have resolved to battle the Obidients to demonstrate that “nobody has a monopoly of madness.” I wish them good luck as they spend the next four years of their lives exchanging bitter words with the zestful users of the internet. Not only will they keep the rest of us entertained now that the present cohort of media aides appears battle weary, but they will also hopefully combust themselves in the monomaniac pursuit of the enemy they created in their own image.

In their bid to punch up and down at their enemies, both online and offline, they would have repudiated every allegation of righteousness and national interest once levelled against them. The good thing is that by the time they are done with their agenda of de-monopolisation of madness on Twitter, they would have disavowed every pretence of patriotism, every sliver of virtue, and every intellection they ever postured in their previous existence. I sincerely hope they do not get tired until they are entirely stripped of all pretences.

With the conclusion of the 2023 general election, it is time to review what has happened to our democracy. Since 2015 we seem to be on a climb towards consolidating democracy. This sentiment is supported by the fact that we have completed for the first time a ‘democratic’ transition from one party to another. In Africa, democracy’s major challenge is for incumbents to be defeated and they go home peacefully. Nigeria achieved that in 2015. This achievement is not a trifle. Joseph Schumpeter considers it the essence of democracy. In his view, democracy is the reality that incumbents can be defeated, and they willingly go home. In many Sub-Saharan African countries, the reality is that attempts to defeat incumbents in elections have easily led to civil conflicts and the loss of democracy itself.

But this singular achievement, significant as it is, does not mask the fundamental flaws of Nigerian democracy. The practice of democracy in Nigeria leads objective assessors to the conclusion that Nigeria is not yet a democracy. If democracy is measured by free and fair elections that are grounded in protection for fundamental human rights and impartial working of state institutions, then Nigeria is not yet a democracy, in spite of the fact of party-to-party transition. Nigerian elections always fall far short of democratic quotients. Robert Dahl lists six conditions of democracy: effective participation, equality in voting, gaining enlightened understanding of public issues, exercising final control over the agenda and inclusion of adults. For there to be equality of votes, you must guarantee to citizens opportunities to freely form opinions, freely express those opinions and organize themselves publicly in defense of such opinions. Where there are legal or illegal prohibitions of the right to organize or where state authorities repress opponents of incumbents and confer advantages to incumbents, there is no free and fair election and no equality of voting.

Dahl admits that there is no ideal democracy where there is complete political equality yet argues that there must be sufficient institutionalization of these features in a polity to qualify as a democracy. To be a democracy it is not enough to have laws that promise citizens fundamental rights, or laws that declare equal citizenship. Those laws must be faithfully implemented. The reality of these rights and not their mere articulation in sacred texts and constitutional documents is the measure of democracy in a society.

This brings democracy closer to the rule of law. It is not a happenstance that there has been no truly democratic society that is not a rule of law society. Of course, we will continue to argue about the reality of the enjoyment of these rights as many members of the society are excluded, whether women and children, as in Athens, or women children and blacks in Antebellum United States. But until there is significant rule of law, democracy can never take shape. The struggles of many post-colonial African countries with democracy may be explained by their weakness institutionalising  the rule of law. Although these countries, like Nigeria, may have incorporated bill of rights in their constitutions, their politics lacks the effective checks and balances that undergird and define democracy. Democracy would be thoroughly lacking in a society where there is no separation between public and private spheres, where state institutions are normatively oriented to serve the political interests of the ruling elites and where the coercive force of the society is neither professionally managed nor diffused.

Democratic elections require that there is competition and contestation. Where there is monopoly of power or total control of state institutions, especially those that punish or reward, then there can be no competitive election in the real sense. If incumbents are not constrained by either administrative rules or by balance of force, it means that there would be no real competition and contestation. Therefore, there will be little prospect for effective participation and equal voting. This is the case with the 2023 general elections.

In the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly Elections, the election management body helped to rig the election for the incumbent political party by mysteriously shutting down the technological safeguard of transparent and credible election- the electronic transmission of result in real time. This undermined the integrity of the election results. Why would a commission that issued a regulation on electronic transmission of results and officially communicated to Nigerians and diplomatic community its commitment to follow through on the regulation now refused to activate that guarantee of transparency and credibility of results? In March 18 Governorship and House of Assembly Election, voters of Igbo ethnic descent were forcefully prevented from voting because the presidential candidate, the incumbent Governor of Lagos and his political surrogates accused Igbos of interfering in Lagos politics and mobilized the people to resist that. The Police did not intervene to protect the citizenship rights of Igbos.

The story above illustrates the truth of the insights from Robert Dahl who argued in his book, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition, that democracy (polyarchy) is only possible where there is real contestation for power. There will be no contestation unless the institutions of coercion have internalized the norms of neutrality and professionalism or there is a diffusion of power such that no single person or group has overwhelming control of the economic or coercive power of the state. In the 2023 elections, we learnt a hard way that unless we can guarantee the professionalism of the security agencies and the election management body, that is ensure that they are operationally neutral of political and economic interests in the society, we cannot have any realistic prospect of having democratic election.

The rule of law approach to state building provides better perspectives to understand the failures we have suffered as a nation. Since the end of colonialism there has been a strong advocacy for democracy. The democratization movement has been largely a failure in some of the transitional and so-called emerging democracy. The problem is that democracy proponents have lost of the history democracy. Democracy is a struggle for equality. This struggle is practical but results in basic changes in law. The underlining institutions of democracy, the reason democracy works, are defined by transformations in law. Without the Magna Carta, with the Bill of Rights in the US Constitution and without the laws that expand the franchise to excluded persons, there would have been no democracy in the western democracy.

The law reform project failed in Nigeria and the rest of Africa as highlighted by Mamdani Mahmood and other African scholars. This failure, as Robert and Ann Seidman wisely noted, is the failure to use law to redefine the institutions of coercion and production and distribution in the post-colonial African states. Free and fair election requires that the security agencies are created and defined in a particular manner that guarantees that they are professional and neutral. Now professionalism and neutrality may sound like technical concepts. But they are first and foremost a matter of legal institutionalization. The manner the police, the election management body and other institutions that intervene in election matters deliver their mandates is the real determinant of free and fair election. The construction of these institutions in a manner that promote political equality is the essence of the rule of law.

After the shambolic 2007 presidential election, President Yar’Adua instituted a comprehensive review of the electoral system. This resulted in the radical propositions in the Justice Uwais report. The report was largely unimplemented. The proposals by Justice Uwais committee if fully and wisely implemented would have transformed the legal institution of elections in Nigeria. Those reforms that changed the legal relations in society are the heart of rule of law reform. As Professor Douglas North makes clear, institutions include all rules, procedures and humanly designed constraints and enablers of action. When we speak of the critical institutions of democracy, we mean those legal relationships in the society that prevent certain actions and mandate others. If such legal relations are wise, effective and make political equality a reality, then we are getting closers to democracy. If state governments can easily mobilize state institutions to work for them, then there is no rule of law. If rules and norms constrain them from so utilizing these institutions to terrorize their opponents, then that is a rule of law state that promotes electoral democracy. Rule of law has the dimension of substantial justice because it aims at the promoting civil and political as well as social economic rights of the people. If our laws do not actually protect these rights, then we cannot get to electoral democracy.

This invariably means that being truly a rule of law state precedes being a democratic state. If we don’t first ensure that our institutions work according to the principles of the rule of law, we cannot transition to democracy.