By the Division of Labour arrangement in our Constitution, Nigeria stands on a tripod – the Legislature makes policies; the policies are executed by the Executive Branch; and any matter of interpretation is referred to the Judiciary.

These divisions are, however, not made into a watertight compartments – one branch occasionally performs roles that are otherwise reserved for another branch. For instance, to become Law, any Bill validly passed by the National Assembly must be assented to by the President. When Executive agencies make subsidiary regulations to facilitate the implementation of any Law, they engage in a Legislative function.

When the Courts strike down a Law validly passed by the Legislature and introduce amendments instead thereof, they carry out what is clearly a Legislative function.

And when the Legislature ousts the role of the Judiciary in carrying out the impeachment of its Members, the Legislature certainly takes on the role of the Judiciary.

Lately, we have come to hear of the nebulous Constituency Projects, under which the Legislators get money to provide projects in their respective Constituencies. This is clearly an executive function.

It is instructive to note that rather than produce a situation of total independence, the Doctrine of Separation of Powers enshrined in our Constitution introduces a situation of a healthy interdependence. The idea here is that no particular Branch of Government should be too strong to become a tyranny.

Representative Government implies that there must be periodic elections in which the citizenry determine the people to represent them in Government. This elective role is reserved specifically for the citizenry.

Party discipline died years ago and money took over. That was when we descended to the realm of what the Americans call MAKING YOU AN OFFER YOU CAN’T REGRET. When money talks, nobody walks!

Our first reflection goes to the days of our Founding Fathers – Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto and Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa of Northern Nigeria, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of Western Nigeria; and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe of Eastern Nigeria, as recently as the First and Second Republics. Those men were the leaders of their political parties. They instilled discipline and commanded loyalty. The men have since played their part and left the stage. The political parties died and party discipline died as well.

The natural consequences that followed the death of the political parties and the twin brother, discipline, are what we are experiencing today.

From the formation of the so-called political parties of today, to the nomination of party officials; and from the selection of candidates for election at all levels, to the determination of winners and losers at the elections, everything is now determined by the Courts!

Party primaries at all levels, both for party and government positions, have become chance games since the final determination can be made only by the Courts!

At the election proper, 80 million Nigerians would stand in the sun and under the rain to vote for their preferred candidates, only for them to be vetoed by 5 odd fellows at the Courts and the judges would install their preferred choice. This is an aberration!

At times, the Courts have had to award victory to somebody who did not contest the election in question. This is JUDICIOCRACY at best. We have not seen its type anywhere. The rate at which we are going, we shall soon arrive at the point where the Judiciary will work directly with INEC and leave the electorate alone. The sooner, the better!

As things stand today, of the hundreds of thousands of pre-election cases in our Courts, many of the actual candidates will not be known far beyond May 29, 2023 – even granting that all the Courts in the land will be devoted to only those cases! It is a rumble in the jungle. The Courts are simply overwhelmed with election cases at the detriment of the other criminal and civil cases for which they were originally setup.

The way it was: In the era of party discipline, only a few exceptional Intra-party cases of nomination went to the Courts. Intra-party cases of the nomination of candidates were settled in-house and not taken to any court. As the saying goes “who born you to say you are taking your fellow UPN member to court when Chief Obafemi Awolowo had initialed the nomination list?”.

Look at all the imbroglio playing out today in all the parties from Yobe to Akwa Ibom; and from Calabar to Maiduguri, of cases involving the nomination of dog catchers and Counsellors as well as presidential candidates and Others! Everything must now be decided at the Supreme Court! And yet, when the entire process becomes one of Cash and Carry, we wonder why.

Let’s look at a few instances of how discipline worked in those good old days: One fateful morning in 1982 or thereabout, the late Olaiya Fagbamigbe (UPN/Akure) rushed to my office at the Red Brick Building in the House of Representatives, looking dejected and frustrated. What happened? He took an idea to Chief Obafemi Awolowo at his Park Avenue residence, Apapa. After listening to him, he said Baba kept quiet for about 5 minutes and pronounced his verdict: “I’ll rather wait to attend your send-off party. Goodbye.” Fagbamigbe knew he had been fired from the UPN!

Second Case: We were working on the amendments to the ELECTORAL BILL, 1982. Prof. Opeyemi Ola, a profound Professor of Political Science came to my office with some amendments that he wanted me to put on the ORDER PAPER.

I looked at the amendments and advised against including them on the ORDER PAPER because similar amendments had been defeated in the House the previous day and if they were put before the House, they would collapse, Mutatis Mutandis.

In a rather pensive mood, Prof. replied, “I know but that’s how Baba wants them.” Chief Awolowo was one man who believed that it was better to say this was where a man died, rather than this was where he ran into the bush. He would rather see it defeated than it was not included. Very early every morning, Baba would send somebody to the Paper Office to collect the ORDER PAPER, THE DEBATES and the VOTES AND PROCEEDINGS; and if he found traces of disobedience of his instruction, you were in trouble.

We saw that in the beginning, Political Leaders had a grip on their members and such members were appropriately whipped into line.

From that giddy height, we are now down to the ground level where polititians at all levels, both inter-party and intra-party, drag themselves to the Courts at the least prompting and on every issue.

As a direct consequence, the Courts have totally displaced the electorate and have effectively taken over the role of periodically electing the people to represent them.

The cause and effect of this sorry state will be topic for another day.

While we glide down the slippery slope, the aphorisms are steadily on the rise – Why pay a Lawyer when you can buy a Judge? Why strive for good elections when you can buy a Judgement? Is ours not a JUDICIOCRACY? It is so sad that with our own hands, we have dethroned DEMOCRACY and enthroned JUDICIOCRACY! Nigeria is still the worse for it all.

Much as the jury is out on the underwhelming performance of Buhari’s presidency these past eight years, the octogenarian never misses any opportunity for vainglorious adulation. At the unveiling of a housing project in Zuba on the periphery of Abuja the other day, Buhari sustained his predilection towards self-celebration. According to him, his “administration has fulfilled its election promise of change to Nigerians.” Really? Maybe. Buhari may be deploying instruments of obtuse appraisal, though to arrive at his conclusions. He famously told us before he came into office in 2015, that he would drag Nigeria from “top to bottom.” He has done just that and we are effectively at that basement now. He will be correct therefore to have so positively rated his aggregate endeavours in office. In his revisionist narrative, Buhari wants us to believe he is the best thing that ever happened to Nigeria. 

The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria, (HURIWA), spontaneously shot down a recently released 91-page book of platitudes extolling Buhari’s achievements, as articulated by his communications office. The publication is consistent with the tendency towards the propagandist logorrhoea which has typified the night before Buhari fades from the nation’s socio-political scene. Famous and respected Kenyan professor of law, who is also a good governance advocate, Patrick Loch Otieno Lumumba, popularly known as “PLO Lumumba”, made a pertinent observation in one of his characteristically spellbinding public engagements. He theorised that “if a leader has to spend so much time and energy explaining what and what he has done while in office, then that leader has done absolutely nothing.” For Lumumba, “a leader’s achievements should speak for him.” Buhari’s trenchant loquaciousness on the eve of his departure from the presidency therefore is tailored to paper up his serial failings, foibles and fumbling. 

The flag bearer of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, (PDP) at the last presidential election, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is understandably hurt by the obvious and deliberate figure-tweaking and gross violations which characterised the last polls, has maintained enviable stoicism. His interventions in public discourse are few and measured, even as he pursues a legal course to unravel the jigsaw. Atiku is doing this not particularly because of himself, but on behalf of every prospective participant in the democratic process. Atiku’s triumphs in his litigations against the president and the state following his persecution by President Olusegun Obasanjo have profited several modern day political aspirants and candidates. Some of the judgments have mitigated rascality, impunity and lawlessness in the exercise of authority within the executive arm of government and various political platforms. To adapt the title of the civil war memoir written by Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, leader of the defunct Biafran secession attempt, Atiku’s pursuit is “not because he’s involved.” 

Atiku is neither downcast nor depressed by the magical turn of events proceeding after the February 25, 2023 presidential election. He runs his regular routine, ever hosting guests, solving problems within his capacity, honouring engagements and doing paperwork. He recently made the rounds checking up on his close associate, Raymond Aleogho Dokpesi, owner of Raypower Radio and AIT, arguably the pioneer of a privately-owned broadcasting outfit, who was beneath the weather. He proceeded to commiserate with his protege and former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, who lost his mother. He also empathised with Orji Uzor Kalu, Majority Whip of the Senate, whose wife sadly passed on in the US. Atiku took the trouble to travel to Kano, to personally visit the family of Musa Gwadabe, Minister of Labour and Productivity under the Obasanjo/Atiku government. Atiku did all these, in person. 

Beyond the symbolism of these efforts, Atiku is demonstrating the manner of humanity and fellow-feeling which has been totally absent from the Buhari regime. Atiku’s rounds as detailed above were not driven by partisanship or ethnic considerations. Dokpesi, Ihedioha and Kalu are all southerners and Christians. Gwadabe was a northerner and a Muslim. Even as the nation spiralled into wanton killing fields on several fronts, not once did Buhari excuse himself from the cosy royalty of Aso Villa to personally and practically assess any incident. Rather, for every calamity that befell his constituents, a mechanistic “Letter of Condolence” was stereotypically the maximum expression of concern by the president. Expected to detour into Zamfara on a visit to Sokoto State last year, the alibi of “bad weather” was propounded to excuse Buhari’s presidential jet from possible attack by bandits domiciled in Zamfara. 

Atiku, by the way, is a consummate fan of the very popular, high-flying English Premier League Club, Arsenal. This indeed is one of our mutual intersections. As “Gunners,” we persevere, we are focused, we are committed. We have style, we have flair, we are systematic, we are not given to quick-fixes. We are patient enough to experience trends and developments as they evolve. At a time like this, one is reminded of that timeless Yoruba adage which translates as: “The slowness of the cat is skill, not a lack of will.” It’s game on metaphorically as legal proceedings get underway Monday, May 8, 2023. Please get a vantage seat at the lips of the play field. 

* Concluded 

On Thursday May 18, General Aliyu Gusau(rtd), CFR, will be 80. If you call him General Aliyu Mohammed or General Aliyu Gusau, you are referring to the same man. The talk in many circles, in this country, is that if you have a problem that you cant solve, contact General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. He will give you  a solution. He is a brilliant man with very few words. He loves to operate in the background and rarely talks. You either fear him or you love him. He is someone, you cannot ignore his call.  Inspite of all said about him, General Gusau is a man who values friendship. He goes out of his way, even bend rules to help his friends. His circle of friends is beyond religious, tribal, military or even political groupings.

The Nigerian Defense Academy was established in 1964 to replace the Nigeria Military Training College (NMTC) for the purpose of producing junior leaders (officers) for the Nigerian Armed Forces. Hitherto, Nigeria Armed Forces Officer Cadets were trained in oversea countries, notably Royal Military Academy I (RMA), Sandhurst England, German Air Force Academy and Teshie Military Academy, Ghana. The First Regular Course (Regular Course 1), which consisted of Army and Navy Cadets only of the duration of 31/2 years. Air Force Cadets were later admitted and trained with the subsequent courses.

The outbreak of the Nigerian civil war in 1967 made it imperative for the Emergency Commission Course (ECC) to be introduced to produce officers for the prosecution of the war. The duration of this type of training ranged between 4-8weeks. The ECC was eventually phased out at the end of the war in 1970 when the need to produce officers of such cadre in the Nigerian Armed Forces was no longer as pressing. In its place the Short Service (Combatant) Commission (SSC) course was introduced with a duration ranging between 6-9months.

This type of training draws largely on the pool of graduates from the Nigerian Universities and other technical colleges to meet the manpower need of the Nigerian Armed Forces on a short-term basis.

This type of training was designed to give the cadets essential professional knowledge that will enable them to be competent platoon commander in their respective units on commissioning. Cadets from other sister African nations have also been trained all along in this august institution. In the mid 1990’s the three services of the Nigeria Armed Forces namely: The Army;Navy and Air Force transferred the training of their cadets under the direct short service commission (DSSC) course to the NDA. With this, uniformity in training standards for officers of the respective services of the Nigerian Armed Forces has been achieved.

One of the students of the Nigerian Defence Academy first Regular Course 1 was General Aliyu Muhammed. His other course mates included Lt-General Oladipo Diya, Lt-General Joshua Dongoyaro, Major General Ishola Williams, Major General Salihu Ibrahim and Admiral Allison Madueke.

Others were Major General O. Daramola, Brigadier General Ibrahim Bako, Brigadier General Rafuka, Major General Karawu, Major General Suleiman, Colonel Anifowose, Major General Abdulahi Mamman, Major General Idahosa, Major General Peter Adomokhai, Major General Haladu Hananiya, Major General Samuel Olajide and Colonel Awodeyi.

General Aliyu Gusau, since joining the Army in 1964, has been able to build national and global contacts. He speaks seven languages including Hebrew, French and German. He is also vast in  Arabic.  Before he retired from the Nigerian Army, he rose to the position of the Chief of Army Staff.

 In 1967, he fought during the Nigerian Civil War. He was Commander of 9 Infantry Brigade, Abeokuta (April 1976 – July 1978). He later became acting Governor of Ogun state. During that time he formed strong friendship among strong Ogun state elites and the friendship still last till today. General Aliyu Gusau became Adjutant General of 2 Mechanised Division (July 1978 – September 1979) and Director of Personnel Services, Army Headquarters (October 1979 – November 1979).

From November 1979 to December 1983, Aliyu was Director of Military Intelligence (DMI) along with Brigadier General Ibrahim Bako, Major General Ibrahim Babangida and Major General Muhammadu Buhari. He played an important role in the coup that ousted President Shehu Shagari and the Second Nigerian Republic on 31 December 1983 and brought General Muhammadu Buhari to power.

When Major General Babangida took over power in 1995, General Aliyu was appointed Director of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and Acting Director-General of the National Security Organisation (NSO) from September 1985 to August 1986, then Coordinator on National Security from August 1986 to December 1989. He reorganised the security and intelligence apparatuses, which had fallen in disarray under Rafindadi during the Buhari regime, breaking up the NSO into three organisations: State Security Services (SSS), National Intelligence Agency (NIA) and the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA).

General Gusau was appointed General Officer Commanding 2 Mechanised Division in Ibadan from December 1989 to August 1990; and Chief of Administration, Defence Headquarters, in Lagos from August 1990 to February 1992. He was Commandant of the Nigerian Defence Academy, Kaduna from February 1992 to January 1993.

Aliyu became National Security Advisor in January 1993, and was promoted to Chief of Army Staff when Babangida passed control to the short-lived civilian government of the Nigerian Third Republic in August 1993.

In November 1993, in a bid to consolidate his power General Sani Abacha removed Aliyu as Chief of Army Staff replacing him with General Chris Alli.

General Ibrahim Babangida GCFR once told me that the greatness of General Aliyu Gusau lies in personal contact with him. He said General Aliyu Gusau is “a wonderful man, a personal friend and a loyal officer. I am always proud of him”.

His son Mahdi Aliyu Gusau (born 1981) served as deputy governor of Zamfara State from 2019 till 2022. His daughter, Aisha,is married to Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, the Vice Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the last Presidential election.

From 1983 till now, every Nigerian leader had one way or the other had contacts with General Aliyu Gusua. In his home state of Zamfara, he is regarded as the Godfather of politics in that state. I think the source of his greatness is his simplicity.

Those who know him love him, infact too much. Those who hate him do not know him at all.

It was a great privilege to be invited as one of the three keynote speakers on a security management symposium and book launch under the theme ‘Sustaining the Gains of War Against Banditry and Insurrection’ held at Ibeto Hotels, Abuja on 4 May 2023. The other two keynote speakers were General Lucky Irabor, Chief of Defence Staff and Solomon Arase, retired Inspector General of Police and Chairman of Police Services Commission who was ably represented by Ferdinand U Ekpe, Director of Police Recruitment.

The two books presented were ‘The Nigeria Police Force and the Dynamics of Election Security Management System: Essays in Honour of Habila Joshak – Deputy Inspector General of Police (Rtd)’ and ‘Countering Banditry in Nigeria’ edited by Al Chukwuma Okoli and Ikechukwu  Kingsley Uzoma. Professor Olayemi Akinwunmi, Vice Chancellor of Federal University, Lokoja reviewed both books which were published by Unilag Press & Bookshop Ltd.

I intend to properly report and interrogate the very robust presentations at the summit soon, especially the highly illuminating speech by General Irabor, which he delivered extemporaneously, on the general theme of the symposium and on the synergies between the Army and the Police in the fight against insurgency, terrorism and banditry.

Today the focus is on my own presentation entitled ‘Beyond the Rhetoric of Winning the War Against Insurgency, Terrorism and Banditry: The Task Ahead for  the incoming Government’. The reason for this is not because of any special intellectual merit of my presentation but more because, with the inauguration of the President-elect  less than three weeks away, the incoming government needs to be strongly reminded that the war against insurgency, terrorism and banditry remain unfinished.

What do we understand by Insurgency, Terrorism and Banditry? What are their drivers and manifestations?  And what is the relationship between the three concepts?

An insurgency is a violent political struggle for control of people and resources.  It is not a mode of warfare but primarily a political process. Insurgent groups aim to undermine the legitimacy of the government and bolster their own standing with the population. They seek to alienate the population from the government by creating alternative social, political and cultural institutions. They are essentially a struggle of the weak against a materially superior ruling power. IPOB and the  Yoruba nation agitations are typical examples of insurgencies.

Terrorism is an emotionally charged term with no consensus in the literature on its definition.  Broadly speaking, it is the use of intentional violence and fear as tools to achieve political or ideological aims. The term can also be used in a political sense to de-legitimize any group.  People also talk of state-sponsored terrorism. There have been several theoretical explanations of terrorism including David Rapoport’s waves of terrorism theory in which he argued that  terrorism moves in waves, with each wave lasting approximately 40 years before it mutates into another form. There are equally the poverty, state failure and crisis in our nation building arguments which supposedly force some groups and individuals to de-link from the state into other contraptions they feel offer them better alternatives to negotiate life.

Banditry is a form of organized crime which typically involves the threat or use of violence. In Nigeria bandits famously terrorise communities in the North West region and other parts of the country. Their activities include kidnapping, arson, shooting, rape, cattle rustling, killing, and looting. The prevalence of ungoverned and under-governed spaces where the government’s control is ineffective or absent is a major factor giving rise to banditry. Ungoverned and Under-governed spaces coupled with the country’s porous borders have increased the influx of small arms and light weapons from the Sahel region – thus increasing the opportunities for crime. This is facilitated by vast forests which allow the illegal arms trade to fester. Additionally, the challenging socioeconomic conditions in the country leave many of the youths vulnerable to recruitment for criminal activities

There is a nexus between terrorism, insurgency and banditry. While terrorism and insurgencies are driven by forms of ideology, banditry is pure criminality by armed gangs driven primarily by economic gains. The three groups are however increasingly converging on their strategies: just like bandits, terrorists and insurgents are known to have raided communities, looted property (foodstuff and livestock), and abducted civilians.  There are also suspicions that the three groups may have established forms of collaboration in some areas.  

How far has the Buhari government fared in the fight against Terrorism, Insurgency and Banditry? In his inaugural address in 2015, Buhari vowed to crush Boko Haram within three months and recover all the territories it had seized. While some gains were made in the recovery of lost territories held by Boko Haram, the emergence of a splinter group in 2016 known as Islamic State- West Africa (ISIS-WA), heralded a new dawn of terror.  At the same time there was an increase in banditry in the North-west and in insurgencies in the South-east and to a lesser extent the South-west primarily as a result of the government’s mismanagement of the herdsmen’s crisis which led to non-state actors moving in to promise the local populace protection from the rampaging herdsmen.

So what should one recommend to an incoming government?

One, if there is anything the elections of 25 February 2023 and 18 March 2023 showed, it is that the chasms in our traditional fault lines are deeper than previously thought. Since insurgencies and terrorism are rooted in groups feeling alienated from the state and consequently de-linking from it, it will naturally subsidize if faith is restored to the nation through deliberate use of state instruments to wield together the diverse nationalities that make up the country.

Two, healing from the bitterly fought elections cannot work if those who played active roles in promoting ethnic and religious hatred during the elections – the likes of Bayo Onanuga, Fani Kayode, MC Oluomo - are given front row positions in an incoming government. Nasir el Rufai is a smart and courageous man. However, given his role in initiating the Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna State and in trying to institutionalize it by making sure his handpicked successor also opted for a Muslim-Muslim ticket, any front row position given to him in an incoming government will be viewed as an affront by the Christian community and a tacit endorsement of the anomaly he created and sustained in Kaduna state. In essence, an incoming government must be sensitive to the role of optics in nation-building.

Three, an incoming government must devise a better approach for fighting the herdsmen terrorism. Though the herdsmen crisis has its roots in the struggle for environmental resource, it has become politicized largely because of its total  mismanagement by the Buhari government who chose to treat the herdsmen with kid gloves thereby unwittingly creating insurgencies like IPOB and Yoruba Nation agitators who moved in to  promise  citizens protection from the excesses of the  herdsmen.

Four, is the need for not just an increase in the number of policemen but also an introduction of multi-level policing to address the issues of ungoverned and under-governed spaces. Improving the quality of governance and providing well-targeted socioeconomic interventions will reduce the role of poverty and unemployment in pushing people to criminality or alienating them from the state system.  

__________________
Jideofor Adibe is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Nasarawa State

University, Keffi and Extraordinary Professor of Government Studies at North Western

University, Mafikeng South Africa. He is also the founder of Adonis & Abbey Publishers and can be reached at 0705 807 8841(Text or WhatsApp only).

The losing side in the 2023 presidential election has been dutiful and purposive on its agenda to push Nigeria to the precipice. Time and time again, this group has made provocative pronouncements, and keeps kindling the furnace of its malicious intents.

What could be more provocative, desperate, and dangerous than the call for the suspension of the sacerdotal May 29 inauguration of President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu? What could be more heinous, psychedelic, atrocious and befuddling than this obtrusive contempt for Nigeria’s peace and stability?

It is clear that the pursuit of power by the foremen of the losing side was never out of compulsion to fix Nigeria, but for some deep, blinkered advantage. According to this group, governance should be suspended, and Nigeria can wait in limbo until by some wizardry conjuring, they ‘’reclaim their mandate’’. This is utterly ridiculous. What mandate?

The facts of the election have been emphasised again and again. President-elect Tinubu fairly, convincingly won the 2023 presidential election. He has an inexorable date with destiny. On May 29, 2023, he will be sworn in as Nigeria’s president. The Nigerian people freely, and enthusiastically gave him their mandate. They entered an accord, a social contract, with him on the strength of his leadership example.

What is staggering is that the call for this obvious sabotage of Nigeria is not only coming from some votaries of the losing side on the internet, but from some respected Nigerians soiled by partisanship and provoked by desperation for access to power. These Nigerians seem to be having difficulty adjusting to life after the taste of the allures of power. They are irascible, irrational, and seem primed for political suicide-bombing. They are ready to risk their careers and vaunted reputation for partisanship. How depressing?

May 29 inauguration is inviolable. There are judicial precedents, like President Buhari’s case against former President Obasanjo’s inauguration in 2003, which the court ruled in Obasanjo’s favour. There are also political precedents, since 1999 never has the inauguration of an incoming government been put in abeyance over electoral litigation.

What these devotees of dystopia are calling for is simply anarchy. So, because a politician lost an election, Nigeria should be made to pay for that? Our peace and stability should be threatened because a politician was rejected by Nigerians?

The same group, which hounded the Buhari administration in the past eight years, now want him to tarry awhile because of their pursuit of a self-absorbent goal. It is no longer about Nigeria, but about what is good for them and their candidate.

And for this genus, it is not about good governance either. To them, good governance is natively partial; it is selective of candidates based on kinship, religious orientation, or some manufactured puritanism. It must be their candidate as president, or doom and gloom befall the country. So, they constitute themselves into a bulwark of cynicism, scorching conversations and the polity with hate, prejudice, and fear.

But what happens when the election petition tribunal upholds the will of Nigerians by affirming the election of the president-elect? Will they persist in their enterprise of scorching the country? Will they accept the decision of the court? Or will they embark on a political trench war to perturb country?

I ask that we allow the court to do its duty without intimidation, threats, and fear. It is unpatriotic to harass judges on the ungoverned social media with tainted suggestions as to how they should do their job.

A SEASON OF GREAT EXPECTATIONS

A beautiful start. I believe good governance will silence doubters and scoffers. Every step the President-elect takes rings "united Nigeria, unity, peace, and progress". The zoning of national assembly positions by the APC seems fair. Each zone was incorporated into the leadership matrix of the parliament, except for the north-central which I understand will be equitably compensated.

The politics of representation has always been a knotty one here. Not that there are any tangible accruals to the zone represented, but I know it gives some sort of soothing effect, a feeling of inclusion, to those represented. There are often claims of marginalisation by different sections of Nigeria. But the reality is, we all face the same challenges as a people. We need food, good schools, functional hospitals, security, infrastructure, and jobs. We are more connected by our shared needs, and goals, than we know it.

No zone should feel entitled to any position. I believe the only entitlement one should have as a citizen is of good governance. Every Nigerian is deserving of good governance. Every Nigerian is entitled to good governance.

It is a season of great expectations, and a beautiful start.

God bless Nigeria.

At the heart of Nigeria’s troubled and enchanted existence is wild and minacious politics. Politics defiant of patriotism and national interest; politics vacant of soul and righteous purpose; politics of predation and degradation. Politics of gladiatorial contests and duels. Destructive, dangerous politics.

The losing side in the 2023 presidential election has been dutiful and purposive on its agenda to push Nigeria to the precipice. Time and time again, this group has made provocative pronouncements, and keeps kindling the furnace of its malicious intents.

What could be more provocative, desperate, and dangerous than the call for the suspension of the sacerdotal May 29 inauguration of President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu? What could be more heinous, psychedelic, atrocious and befuddling than this obtrusive contempt for Nigeria’s peace and stability?

It is clear that the pursuit of power by the foremen of the losing side was never out of compulsion to fix Nigeria, but for some deep, blinkered advantage. According to this group, governance should be suspended, and Nigeria can wait in limbo until by some wizardry conjuring, they ‘’reclaim their mandate’’. This is utterly ridiculous. What mandate?

The facts of the election have been emphasised again and again. President-elect Tinubu fairly, convincingly won the 2023 presidential election. He has an inexorable date with destiny. On May 29, 2023, he will be sworn in as Nigeria’s president. The Nigerian people freely, and enthusiastically gave him their mandate. They entered an accord, a social contract, with him on the strength of his leadership example.

What is staggering is that the call for this obvious sabotage of Nigeria is not only coming from some votaries of the losing side on the internet, but from some respected Nigerians soiled by partisanship and provoked by desperation for access to power. These Nigerians seem to be having difficulty adjusting to life after the taste of the allures of power. They are irascible, irrational, and seem primed for political suicide-bombing. They are ready to risk their careers and vaunted reputation for partisanship. How depressing?

May 29 inauguration is inviolable. There are judicial precedents, like President Buhari’s case against former President Obasanjo’s inauguration in 2003, which the court ruled in Obasanjo’s favour. There are also political precedents, since 1999 never has the inauguration of an incoming government been put in abeyance over electoral litigation.

What these devotees of dystopia are calling for is simply anarchy. So, because a politician lost an election, Nigeria should be made to pay for that? Our peace and stability should be threatened because a politician was rejected by Nigerians?

The same group, which hounded the Buhari administration in the past eight years, now want him to tarry awhile because of their pursuit of a self-absorbent goal. It is no longer about Nigeria, but about what is good for them and their candidate.

And for this genus, it is not about good governance either. To them, good governance is natively partial; it is selective of candidates based on kinship, religious orientation, or some manufactured puritanism. It must be their candidate as president, or doom and gloom befall the country. So, they constitute themselves into a bulwark of cynicism, scorching conversations and the polity with hate, prejudice, and fear.

But what happens when the election petition tribunal upholds the will of Nigerians by affirming the election of the president-elect? Will they persist in their enterprise of scorching the country? Will they accept the decision of the court? Or will they embark on a political trench war to perturb country?

I ask that we allow the court to do its duty without intimidation, threats, and fear. It is unpatriotic to harass judges on the ungoverned social media with tainted suggestions as to how they should do their job.

A SEASON OF GREAT EXPECTATIONS

A beautiful start. I believe good governance will silence doubters and scoffers. Every step the President-elect takes rings "united Nigeria, unity, peace, and progress". The zoning of national assembly positions by the APC seems fair. Each zone was incorporated into the leadership matrix of the parliament, except for the north-central which I understand will be equitably compensated.

The politics of representation has always been a knotty one here. Not that there are any tangible accruals to the zone represented, but I know it gives some sort of soothing effect, a feeling of inclusion, to those represented. There are often claims of marginalisation by different sections of Nigeria. But the reality is, we all face the same challenges as a people. We need food, good schools, functional hospitals, security, infrastructure, and jobs. We are more connected by our shared needs, and goals, than we know it.

No zone should feel entitled to any position. I believe the only entitlement one should have as a citizen is of good governance. Every Nigerian is deserving of good governance. Every Nigerian is entitled to good governance.

It is a season of great expectations, and a beautiful start.

God bless Nigeria.

By Fredrick Nwabufo, Nwabufo aka Mr OneNigeria is a media executive.

Without prejudice to what transpires at the Presidential Election Tribunal on the February 25 election, and the request by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and others that the proceedings should be televised live – no problem about that, as long as the parties involved can bear the cost in defence of the ideal of transparency - it seems certain nonetheless that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President-elect and Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party, would be sworn in as President of Nigeria on May 29, 2023. The Federal Government has set up a Transition Committee, the President-elect has also set up an Inauguration Committee with some Nollywood stars named unto that committee already behaving like party boosters on social media. While the Election Petition Tribunal continues to keep, hopefully to its promise that it would consider every application on its own merit, Tinubu and APC are already preparing for their own Coronation ceremony on May 29, complete with jollof rice and aso ebi parties and a scale of pomp and pageantry that could rival the Coronation of King Charles III of Great Britain on May 6. Nigerians are very good at imitating the colonial masters. No one should be surprised if Tinubu arrives at the Eagle Square on Inauguration Day on a horse-drawn golden carriage. The morning after, he would swing into action, real time.

The sword of power would have been handed over to him. He would have such authority and access to resources that his challengers in court cannot hope to match. He would in fact have been placed in a position to exercise authority over those who are challenging him, their businesses and their needs. Even the courts would have taken notice of the fact that Nigeria is under a new dispensation. Tinubu has been in politics for a long time. He knows what power means. He has been a Senator. He has been Governor twice. He has been a Godfather in Nigerian politics for more than two decades. He has been a kingmaker. He is a veteran of the game. The real threat to our democracy is that we may have been presented with a fait accompli, while the lawyers shuffle papers and quote dead authorities and precedents in order to earn their pay. Even if the matter goes all the way to the Supreme Court let it be noted that the apex court is a court of law and also a court of public policy. This is why there is merit to the emerging argument that our electoral system needs further reform, and the Constitution must be amended accordingly to ensure that post-election, all election petitions are determined before anybody is sworn in. That is what they do in Kenya. Why not in Nigeria? For now, Bola Tinubu and the APC will benefit from this omission in the Nigerian Constitution. But the people’s consciousness has been awoken. Legal frameworks emerge on the basis of lessons learnt. Those who doubt the integrity and the legitimacy of the process that made the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to declare Tinubu as President-elect are bound to stay on this question until it is resolved, ahead of future elections. Such persons have the right to raise questions.

For now, therefore, let us reflect on the reality of a Tinubu Presidency that stares us in the face. He has not yet been sworn in, he is already acting as President. He has since moved into the Defence House, the traditional residence for Nigeria’s President in waiting. The other day, the Rivers State Government invited him to commission two projects and a two-day holiday was declared to host him. His supporters are now taking out family attires, the famous aso ebi. Materials have been submitted to tailors and fashion designers. No one should be surprised if Tinubu invites the opposition party leaders to his inauguration and quite a number would show up on D-Day. Has Action Alliance (AA) not withdrawn its petition at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal without giving any reason? For Bola Tinubu, May 29 would be a significant moment – the day that the kingmaker of many years takes the throne for which he had long prepared himself. His campaign slogan was “Emilokan” – “it is my turn”- May 29 would be a culmination of a life-long ambition, carefully executed over the years, from the days of NADECO struggle to Senatorial position, Governorship, and a crafty, deliberate, even if cynical construction of power, name recognition and influence. It would be history made on May 29, because Tinubu would have become the third South Westerner and the fifth Southerner – after Aguiyi Ironsi, Ernest Shonekan, Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan to lead Nigeria.

In 1966, July, in the heat of the counter-coup, Brigadier Babfemi Ogundipe who was next in line to Ironsi had to flee abroad when his Northern aides threatened to kill him. In the First and Second Republics, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who was most prepared for office and leadership never achieved the dream of becoming Nigeria’s President. In 1993, Chief MKO Abiola who emerged winner of what has been adjudged the freest and fairest election in Nigerian history was denied victory because the military led by General Ibrahim Babangida annulled the election. When Tinubu wears the Presidential sash on May 29, he would have succeeded where other clearly accomplished Yoruba sons “failed”. Such is the irony of life, but it is also the reason why Tinubu as a Nigerian President from the South and from the South West would be assuming a heavy burden of history. Being President alone, even for a week is probably enough for him – his name would have entered the annals of history. But that cannot be enough. The President-elect must not look forward to the fulfilment of naked ambition. He cannot go to Aso Villa in Abuja to drink tea, eat free food, and pick his teeth afterwards with toothpick. I dare say that toothpicks should be banned from Aso Villa forthwith. When a man sits on the stone of destiny, he sits atop a huge responsibility.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Presidential candidate engaged Nigerians with an 80-page manifesto which he titled “Renewed Hope”. I would be surprised if he has read his own manifesto. It took some time for that manifesto to be announced. His campaign managers disowned several versions before they finally decided on the 88-page document. Now here is the deal – in Nigeria, political manifestoes are written by a hired team who put out textbook ideas and tell the people what they want to hear which is why all the Presidential manifestoes in the 2023 Presidential election mouthed the same platitudes, an expression of the lack of clear ideological lines in contemporary Nigerian politics. This is the reason why under the Buhari administration, we had the interesting experience of a sitting President denying some of the contents of his own campaign manifesto. The ideas were not his, they were put there by the political jobbers aiming for the right sound bites. Nobody should be surprised if Tinubu also distances himself from some of the verbiage in his campaign document. But we expect him to reduce his priorities to clear, policy choices that can be monitored. No verbiage, just very clear actionable points. President Umaru Yar’Adua (2007 – 2010) had a seven point plus two special interest issues agenda for Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan (2010 – 2015) announced a Transformation Agenda with four special targets to seek profound changes in social, economic, political and the institutional structure of the country. President Muhammadu Buhari (2015 – 2023) eventually reduced his campaign manifesto to a specific three-point agenda. President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu is advised to follow the same pattern. I propose the following actionable, eight-point agenda, not necessarily in their order of importance.

One: The first big elephant in the room that the Tinubu administration has to deal with when it assumes office on May 29, right after the inauguration banquet is the removal of fuel subsidy. It is first and foremost a matter of law. Both the Appropriation Act 2023, and the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 prescribes a window of exit from the petroleum subsidy regime that does not extend beyond June 1, 2023. There is no provision for the funding of subsidy in the budget beyond that point. The Buhari administration had cleverly avoided taking responsibility for removing fuel subsidy and shifted the goal post claiming there could be “consequences” in a Bloomberg interview. The same administration has further saved itself from public backlash by saying it has secured an $800 million facility from the World Bank for the provision of palliatives, but it is now up to an expanded committee including the in-coming administration’s team to take a decision. It looks like a set up to me. Buhari would walk away as the man who was wary of “consequences”. Tinubu will be required to use his head to break the coconut. If the subsidy remains beyond the provisions of the law, and no attempt is made to amend the law, Tinubu would be starting off his Presidency by breaking the laws of Nigeria.

The government would have set out on a note of illegality. It would be akin to the Buhari administration violating the Procurement Act and the CBN Act with regard to CBN Ways and Means, and here on the eve of Buhari’s Departure, the National Assembly says it has approved the violation of the law. When the legislature breaks its own laws, and does so with immunity, then a country is in trouble. If it may be any consolation to those who are opposed to INEC’s declaration of Tinubu as President-elect, the truth is that the man is going to inherit a troubled nation. The country is broke. After May 29, it may not be able to meet its financial obligations. The question of fuel subsidy is a kind of poetic justice for Tinubu. In 2012, he and his allies organized designer protests at Ojota, Lagos and elsewhere to oppose fuel subsidy removal. If we had removed subsidy then, Nigeria would have since adjusted. Tinubu is saddled with the evil day that he postponed. He must either show courage or act cowardly. Economists for more than two decades have not changed their position from Lagos to Washington DC, that a fuel subsidy regime is unsustainable. It is important to state this because there are some ruling party hangers-on who have been saying that once Dangote Refinery comes on stream on May 22, then government can remove fuel subsidy. The two must be separated. It would be the ultimate act of cowardice to use the Dangote Refinery and the expected 650, 000 barrels a day as the fall guy for years of government incompetence. It is either Tinubu has the courage to act, or he would take a cowardly option which would again postpone the evil day.

Two: Revenue is a problem. We have been told this again and again by Nigeria’s financial managers and that the main challenge is to widen Nigeria’s revenue base. The Bretton Woods institutions in their Economic Outlook Reports on Nigeria have said more or less the same thing. Nigeria’s next administration has to find ways of increasing revenue. The easiest recommendation is to say government has to collect more taxes or widen the tax base. Nigerians are already groaning under the weight of too many taxes and they can’t see what anybody does with the taxes, and so, whatever government proposes, the people are suspicious. Tinubu, given his reputation as the man behind Alpha Beta, the tax collection agency in Lagos would find it difficult to tell Nigerians to pay more taxes. They would think he just wants to hand over Nigeria to Alpha Beta and collect bigger shares of the cake. Tinubu cannot be a tax collector of Nigeria. He will be resisted by everybody! His advisers must therefore look at other options. He has to prune down the cost of governance, starting with his own example. He must start by implementing the Oronsaye Report on Governance. All forms of duplication must be eliminated. There must be legislation telling Governors and Local Government Chairmen that they cannot have more than two assistants, maximum five and that everybody must stop going about as if they have just inherited the world. The COVID-19 crisis has shown that if Nigerian leaders stay at home for medical care, they can survive. Everyone, including the President must be told clearly that whatever they cannot treat in Nigeria may as well kill them. We are in the age of technology. Jumping around at public expense to treat gout and arthritis is unacceptable. Whoever wants to do so must show proof that they are spending personal funds! Tinubu must address Nigeria’s health sector crisis.

Three: Tinubu has been a long-time apostle of federalism. He has written a book on it. Symposia have been held in his honour on the subject. As Governor of Lagos State, he took President Olusegun Obasanjo to court on the subject of the creation of Local councils and the true reading of Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution. He won. I am not very sure that President Obasanjo has forgiven him for that. He now steps into the same shoes that Obasanjo occupied. He cannot run an imperial Presidency! If that sounds like another curse of nemesis, Tinubu must be made to realize that given his own antecedents and causes that he championed, he has to show that he truly believes in Federalism. One of his first tasks must be to support the devolution of powers, give the states more responsibilities and make the Federal Government more compact and effective. Anything otherwise would be used against him. He could come across as a hypocrite on the question of federalism, and he would have allowed OBJ to have a very good, last laugh in this emerging game of thrones.

Four: Tinubu has been a champion of a special status for Lagos. He is now in a position to make that happen. But he must resist the temptation to be a Yoruba or Lagos President. It is not only Lagos that deserves a special status. He must add to that agenda, Kaduna and Enugu. He must be the President of all of Nigeria, a unifier, not a divisive village chief. The same Lagosians who did not vote for him on February 25 would expect that he should do more for Lagos. He must not repeat the error of ethnic irredentism in Nigerian politics. He must avoid a winner-takes-it-all approach.

Five: He must sanitize the budgeting and procurement processes. Six; he must take a quick look at the foreign exchange regime. Seven: empower the security agencies, particularly the police. Eight: respect media freedom and the demands of Nigerian youths. These are low-hanging fruits. We wait. We watch.