The Nigerian economy has always been a topic of deep concern, often marred by inflation, unemployment, and fluctuating exchange rates. Yet, the current economic situation seems to have taken an unprecedented toll, stretching the limits of survival for both individuals and businesses alike. This became even more apparent when, recently, telecommunications operators in Nigeria raised an alarm over the deteriorating economic conditions under which they are forced to operate. The industry, which serves as the backbone of modern communication and commerce, is feeling the heat of an economic inferno that threatens to consume not just their profits but their very existence.

The Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Engr. Gbenga Adebayo, highlighted this during the 93rd Telecom Consumer Parliament organized by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in Abuja. According to him, telecom operators are struggling to stay afloat in a harsh economic environment, with increased operational costs and dwindling consumer purchasing power. The calls for an increase in tariffs to help sustain the industry reflect just how dire the situation has become. Yet, Adebayo was quick to stress that any increase in tariffs must be done with caution, ensuring that the already burdened consumers do not bear the brunt of this decision.

Telecommunications is not merely a service but a critical infrastructure that supports every facet of the economy. When an industry as vital as telecom starts to flounder, it sends shockwaves across other sectors. The fact that telecom operators are contemplating tariff increases as a last resort to remain operational should set off alarm bells for policymakers.

The plight of telecom operators, however, is only one piece of a much larger puzzle. Adebayo’s observation that Nigerians who once comfortably recharged their phones with ₦5,000 or ₦10,000 are now resorting to ₦200 or ₦300 speaks volumes. It is a stark reflection of the shrinking disposable income of average Nigerians. For many, phone calls, internet access, and data subscriptions are not just luxuries but necessities in today’s digital world. The reduction in spending on these essential services suggests a deeper economic malaise where even middle-class families are forced to tighten their belts.

The telecom sector, like many others, is grappling with rising operational costs due to inflation, a depreciating naira, and the high cost of diesel needed to power base stations amid erratic power supply. These challenges are not just affecting the profitability of telecom companies but also threatening the sustainability of services that millions of Nigerians rely on for their daily lives, businesses, and livelihoods. The government must take urgent steps to address the root causes of this economic downturn before these industries collapse under the weight of systemic neglect.

The economic distress is not limited to telecom operators alone. In a similar vein, a professional colleague narrated the story of a businessman who once had the luxury of filling his car’s tank with fuel every other day. Today, that same businessman is reduced to buying just a few liters at a time. This shift from abundance to scarcity is a testament to the harsh economic realities facing Nigerians.

The average Nigerian household is experiencing the ripple effects of rising fuel costs, which not only affect transportation but also impact food prices and other essential goods. The high cost of diesel has forced businesses to cut down on operations, with some even shutting down completely. Small business owners who depend on generators for electricity are particularly hard-hit, as they face skyrocketing expenses that eat into their already thin profit margins.

The reduction in fuel consumption by private citizens and businesses alike is a clear indication that purchasing power is dwindling. When people can no longer afford to fuel their cars or power their generators, it is a sign that the economy is nearing a breaking point. What is more alarming is that this trend is happening at a time when Nigeria, as one of Africa’s largest oil producers, should ideally be benefiting from its natural resources. Instead, ordinary citizens are suffering from the paradox of plenty, where the wealth of the nation’s resources fails to trickle down to the people.

The situation calls for urgent and decisive action from the government. It is clear that the country’s economic woes are not just cyclical but structural. The government must take proactive steps to address the factors that are driving businesses to the brink of collapse and pushing millions of Nigerians into poverty.

In fact, not a few economic experts have averred that the continuous depreciation of the naira is a major driver of inflation, and that import-dependent sectors like telecommunications are particularly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. They have also added that government should work with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stabilize the naira and ensure that businesses can access foreign exchange at reasonable rates.

In a similar vein, not a few experts have being heard saying that the cost of diesel has become a significant burden for businesses, especially in the absence of reliable electricity, and that investing in the power sector to ensure stable and affordable electricity supply will alleviate some of the operational costs that are crippling businesses.

Against the foregoing backdrop, it is expedient to opine that while the removal of fuel subsidies was intended to free up government revenue, it has had severe consequences for ordinary Nigerians. Therefore, suggestions have been rife that the government needs to explore targeted subsidies or alternatives that can cushion the impact on those who are most vulnerable.

Not only that, there has been calls on the need to boost local production. Therefore, reducing the country’s reliance on imports by supporting local industries will create jobs and reduce the pressure on foreign exchange reserves. This, they said, can be achieved through incentives for local manufacturers and investments in critical sectors like agriculture and technology.

In a similar vein, is the call for social welfare programs. Proponents of the foregoing variously averred that to directly address the suffering of the masses, the government should expand social welfare programs that provide relief to low-income households, saying that the distribution of palliatives, food subsidies, and cash transfers could go a long way in easing the economic burden on Nigerians.

In fact, the current state of the Nigerian economy is unsustainable. The warning signs are everywhere, from the dwindling airtime purchases to the inability of citizens to afford fuel. The narratives shared by telecom operators and everyday businessmen paint a bleak picture that cannot be ignored.

There is no doubt that Nigeria is at a crossroads. The government must choose to either take bold steps to reform the economy or risk a complete collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for generations to come. It is not enough to issue statements and make promises; Nigerians need to see concrete actions that will improve their lives.

The economic challenges are complex, but they are not insurmountable. With the right policies, political will, and a focus on the welfare of the people, Nigeria can chart a path to recovery. The government must remember that while they deliberate, the people are suffering. Every day that passes without meaningful intervention pushes more Nigerians into poverty and despair.

At the end of the day, these stories, from telecom operators struggling to stay in business to ordinary citizens rationing fuel, are not just statistics; they are the lived experiences of millions of Nigerians. The narratives shared by Engr. Gbenga Adebayo and others should serve as a wake-up call for the government to act swiftly and decisively.

There is a need for empathy-driven policies that prioritize the well-being of the populace. The government must understand that when people can no longer afford to recharge their phones or fuel their cars, it speaks volumes about the state of the economy. It is time to stop the rhetoric and start implementing policies that will bring about real change. The clock is ticking, and the people are waiting.

Nigeria should be an economic powerhouse not only in Africa but globally because of its enormous human and natural resources but ironically it is fighting for economic survival. This contrast has been linked by many to inappropriate leadership over the years. However, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has demonstrated exemplary leadership marked by patriotism, boldness, action, foresight, and commitment. since he came into power on May 29, 2023.

Fuel subsidies and the constant defence of the naira have historically done more harm than good, consuming trillions of naira that could have been invested in nation-building resulting in infrastructure decay and mounting national debt. Over the years, the Federal Government has had little left for capital expenditure and investment in critical sectors of the economy after covering salaries and other recurrent costs which, has significantly contributed to the poor state of roads, hospitals, schools, power supply, and the inability to adequately fund security agencies etc. Therefore president Tinubu should be commended for removing fuel subsidy and floating the naira despite being unpopular decisions.

President Tinubu’s policies have started to positively impact the lives of Nigerians. For example, It is worth noting that when he came into power, some state governments struggled to pay minimum wage and pensions. Currently, no state is reported to be behind on salary payments. The Federal Government has begun implementing the new national minimum wage of N70,000, and state governments have also announced and started paying new minimum wages at varying rates, with none below N70,000, much to the relief of Nigerian workers. Insecurity is on the decline, with areas like the Abuja-Kaduna road no longer plagued by incidents that once made it a nightmare. Also, students have already started benefiting from the student loan scheme introduced by this administration; just to mention a few.

Despite mixed reactions to President Tinubu’s recent cabinet reshuffle, it signals his commitment to fixing the country. This reshuffle was timely and it strengthened the cabinet sending a clear message that Mr President will not tolerate mediocrity. Nigerians hope this will lead to a more responsive government and better policy implementation, fostering stronger synergy among ministries. The long time lag between policy announcement and implementation previously experienced should become a thing of the past.

With inflation slowing, debt service to revenue ratio reducing from 97% to under 70%, gross foreign reserves hitting $40 billion, and the outcome of GDP rebasing awaited, there is optimism about the country’s economic future. Additionally, the removal of the fuel subsidy has freed up funds that the government plans to invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure (power, transport, etc.), security agencies, and other key sectors. For these efforts to succeed, the government must also adopt zero tolerance for corruption and waste. The World Bank has commended President Tinubu’s bold policies and emphasized the need to sustain them to achieve the desired economic reforms. Nigeria has a hopeful path ahead, and in time, Nigerians will look back and appreciate President Tinubu’s leadership.

By Kenechukwu Aguolu  This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Six years ago, in my column in Daily Trust (https://dailytrust.com/the-gadfly-called-shehu-sani/), shortly after he broke the existing code of secrecy by revealing his humongous salary of N13.5 million as a senator, I said the following about the political activist, Shehu Sani:

“Shehu Sani has not disappointed those who swore that he was bound to shake things up in the national legislature. Having emerged from the trenches of social activism from where he was plucked and incarcerated by the Babangida, Shonekan and Abacha regimes, it was reasoned that Sani was well prepared for the battle of dredging the marshes of the Nigerian Senate even though he was but a first term legislator. (It seemed centuries ago when he was sentenced to life in jail by Abacha’s kangaroo tribunal!)”

Sani’s recent comments on the political manoeuvrings going on in the North are quite noteworthy. It is an open secret that many northern politicians have been meeting to persuade President Tinubu to grant them more favours, otherwise…

2027 Calculations

The 2027 elections are on the line even though we are still in 2024. You’d wish that the discussions were about advancing the cause of the poor. I know that political alliances are matters of give and take. But when a group gangs up with a demand supposedly on behalf of the North, and threatens that their continued support for the president in 2027 would depend on whether their demands are granted or not, the whole situation seems to reek of blackmail.

Thank God for patriots like Shehu Sani whose outlook makes it possible to discuss the most serious problems confronting the northern states without guile, suspicion or bad blood. I have always argued that every journalist in the public space ought to be able to comment on any subject under the sun without let or hindrance. But some self-appointed gatekeepers of regional interests always demonise “outsiders” who dare to comment on “Northern affairs”. I dare say there are soulmates of these xenophobic elements in the South as well. I have happily broken this rule over the years. People are people. Development is development. There is no Hausa poverty or Igbo hunger or Yoruba penury.

That is why Shehu Sani’s interventions are heart-warming. The socio-political activist has proved to be one of those unflappable Nigerians whose opinions are not coloured by religion, ethnicity or other provincial considerations.

Power Vendors

The North has been in power longer than any other part of the country but that fact has not led to the upliftment of the people. The North still lags behind the southern states in most indices of human development. So, it ought to be clear to power mongers in the North that being in power has only favoured the elite while the people are left to wallow in poverty. The power vendors who are presently crisscrossing various states in the quest for alternative 2027 alliances are wasting their time, says Shehu Sani. In his view, the focus should be on what the current government can do to help uplift the poor people of the North and what the North itself can do to help itself.

In his words, “For the fact that the North has been behind in a number of indices of development, there should have been a concerted effort in terms of bringing development to that part of the country. But look at what we are having now – in the last eight years before the coming of this administration, in 2015, there was so much hope. There was so much belief and faith that the leadership that took over at that time would address these fundamental issues, but it has not.

“Today, the states in the North West are facing serious problems of banditry, kidnappings, and killings by all sorts of violent groups. In the North East, Boko Haram, ISIS and other terrorist groups are still holding sway, despite the fact that not only has the North been in power from 2015-2023, but major organs of government were headed by people from that region, and they have not actually used it for development. So now, I think the fact that someone from the South has taken over, there appears to be an organised attempt for them to resurrect their power base and see how they can return to power.

“So, power should be of use to the masses… in the North, power should address their poverty, should address their insecurity, should address the issues of development, and not power should be used to enrich an insignificant few who simply are parasitic on the economy of the country.”

Almajiri

The almajiri system, which the Northern elite has refused to reform because it captures only the children of the poor, is one of the areas where Sani advocates urgent reform because it is a ready-made breeding ground for bandits and terrorists.

According to the senator, “Many parents in rural areas hand over their children to a religious teacher in the city, who depends on the children to beg or steal in order to feed himself and his family. For ethnic, religious, and sectional reasons, we have protected, defended, praised, and refused to hold accountable all our kinsmen who led the country at every wasted opportunity for five decades.

“The bandits and terrorists who kill and kidnap our people, deny our farmers access to their farms, and prevent our children from going to school, are not from any foreign country or from the South; they come from our homes and families up north. We worship with them in the same mosque…

“We concoct and spread all sorts of religiously inclined conspiracies to deny our children free health, immunisation against diseases, resulting in hundreds of thousands of blind, lame, crippled, and deaf children who grow up as victims of polio, glaucoma, or leprosy, begging in northern and southern cities.”

Northerners used to be very enterprising, as anyone who witnessed the First Republic would testify. The virus of dependency and lethargy became widespread over the decades when Northerners sat on federal power. This situation has to be reversed for the region to make progress.

On a rather doleful note, the senator notes that, “All the spare parts, building materials, and pharmaceutical stores in the North are private businesses owned by people from other regions who were not backed, funded, or supported by any government… The FCT is in the North. Can anyone explain why people from the region couldn’t dominate the private businesses in the FCT, Suleja, and Mararaba? Who should be blamed for this?”

Making a clarion call for the elite to change their ways and look inwards, he asserts: “God gave us the largest land mass, the largest number of people, most of the rivers, and resources and livestock, and gave us power for the most part of our history. Which of the favours of our Lord can we deny? In the North, 80 percent of our problems are ourselves and not anyone outside of ourselves.”

A problem identified is a problem half-solved. It’s time to reverse the culture of “one millionaire surrounded by one million beggars”. A massive, region-wide campaign for attitudinal change to encourage skill acquisition, entrepreneurship and give access to loans would be a good starting point.

When next the conclave of Northern power vendors gathers, let them concentrate on how to end banditry and other criminalities, and then map out dedicated programmes to make the populace productive. The ongoing conspiracies regarding realignments towards 2027 can only birth a few concessions for the political elite while the overwhelming majority of their people remain empty-handed.

Brighton came from behind to record a 2-1 victory over Manchester City in Saturday’s Premier League contest at the Amex Stadium.

The Citizens entered the clash off the back of three straight defeats and there was huge pressure on Pep Guardiola’s side to bounce back against the Seagulls.

Erling Haaland sent Man City ahead in the 23rd minute, but Joao Pedro levelled the scores before debutant Matt O’Riley won it for the hosts in the latter stages.

Guardiola has now lost four games in a row for the first time in his managerial career, with his team remaining second in the Premier League table, two points behind the leaders Liverpool.

Man City came close to making the breakthrough in the 15th minute of the match through Savinho, but Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on hand to make a brilliant save.

The Citizens did register in the 23rd minute, though, with Haaland managing to bundle the ball home from close range after the striker saw his first effort saved by Brighton’s Verbruggen.

Mateo Kovacic provided the pass which released Haaland, and the Norway international simply would not be denied, with Man City opening the scoring, but Brighton were a threat, with Danny Welbeck and Kaoru Mitoma carrying the fight to the Citizens.

Brighton had a big chance to level the scores early in the second period through Jack Hinshelwood, but his header was straight at the away side’s goalkeeper Ederson.

Welbeck had another half-chance in the 67th minute, but the ex-Manchester United forward failed to make the most of having the ball inside the box, before Ederson denied Mitoma and Pedro missed the target with a low effort in quick succession.

Brighton were pushing against a Man City side that were again far from their best, and the leveller came in the 78th minute, with Pedro firing into the back of the net from inside the box after the visitors had failed to clear their lines.

In the 83rd minute, O’Riley then completed the turnaround, with the 23-year-old, on his Premier League debut for the Seagulls, scoring following a brilliant Pedro pass.

 [DailyTrust]

The outgoing Governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki, has warned the incoming governor of the state, Monday Okpebholo, against prioritising politics over security, saying there will be problems if he does.

Obaseki gave the advice in Benin during the state’s security meeting with heads of security agencies in the state.

He said his administration was leaving the security of the state much better than he met it in 2016.

“My advice to the incoming administration is to take security seriously and never prioritise politics over security because there will be problems as citizens need to demand a secure environment.

“We have shown that it’s possible because we have men and women who have the capacity and training to offer security services to the state and the people of the state,” Obaseki said.

Attributing his success to the collaboration and support received from heads of security agencies, Obaseki said they had collectively changed the narrative and the perception about security in the state.

According to him, the development and growth in the domestic environment and the interest of investors in the state was due to the secure environment in the state.

Obaseki further pointed out that by adopting technology, his administration was able to cover the state and make it safe for the people, adding that it was able to document every incident in the state and work together to provide responses to the security situation.

He, however, called for the participation of all stakeholders in fixing the nation.

[DailyPost]

• Workers demand new deal for pensioners too Imo, Plateau, Osun still negotiating

With the battle for a new minimum wage settled in most of the 36 states,workers are now shifting attention to the payment of the arrears of their remuneration.

Many of the states commenced payment of the new wage last month while some have promised to do so at the end of this month.

But Imo,Osun and Plateau state governments are yet to commit themselves on how much they are willing to pay and when they plan to start paying.

The Minimum Wage Act  took effect from July following the signing of the bill by  President Bola Tinubu on July 29.

Negotiation between government (Federal and States),organised labour and the private sector on the matter  took some time and when it was all over,the state governors asked that they be given till the end of October to enable them put their finances in order. 

One of the states already preparing for negotiation of payment of arrears of the new wage is Katsina.

Chairman of the state  chapter of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Hussain Hamisu,told The Nation by phone that labour is scheduled to commence negotiations with the state government on the payment of arrears  and  on how retirees could benefit from the new salary structure.

The committee set up by the state government on the new minimum wage is about rounding off its assignment.

Hamisu said once the committee completes its assignment in another two weeks, negotiation on the arrears will begin.

‘’Retirees must equally be considered during negotiations, considering the fact that there was a circular on their benefits and entitlements at the time of their retirements,’’ he said.

The NLC boss said  Katsina has a history of timely wage payments and taking care of the interest of workers.

The 15- member committee on the minimum wage was charged with the responsibility of advising the state government  on strategy and modalities for the  implementation of the new salary structure.

No question of arrears, retirees in Delta – NLC

Civil servants in Delta State are not looking forward to receiving arrears of the new minimum wage, according to the local chairman of the NLC, Comrade Goodluck Ofobrukwu.

He said the NLC was satisfied with the implementation of the new wage structure by the state government .

Ofobrukwu, in a telephone interview with The Nation, said the effective date for implementation date of the new minimum wage was October 1, and therefore will be no need for negotiations on payment of arrears.

Payment of the new minimum wage to retirees commenced also in October.

 His words: “The Federal Government circular is with effect from 29th July, 2024. In Delta State, we agreed that the effective date should be 1st October, 2024, so there is no question of arrears. And we have been paid

“Some states are taking 1st November, others 1st October, some have not started. If we are adopting the circular and taking 1st October, which has been implemented, then there is no question of Delta State government paying arrears.

 “The pensioners you talked about, the N32,000 that the Federal Government asked to be added to their salary has been added with effect from 1st October. That was the agreement we signed with the state government, so it has taken effect from 1st October.”

No agreement yet on arrears in Kwara

The   Kwara State government agreed to commence payment of N70,000 as minimum wage from last month but asked that discussion with organized labour on arrears be put on hold.

Government, according to the local  chairman of the Trade Union Congress (TUC) Olayinka Onikijipa,said  sustainability of payment of the new minimum wage was more important than arrears for now.

“For sustainability, they said we should put on hold any discussion on payment of arrears,” Onikijipa said.

He added:” That is not what the law says. But we will continue to push for its implementation.’

On the fate of pensioners, he said:”The issue of extending the payment to pensioners has not come up at all. Pensioners are not yet captured in the state.”

Enugu still sorting out  consequential adjustment of minimum wage

Payment of the new minimum wage took off in Enugu State last month but it was without consequential adjustment. 

Government is yet to finalise work on that aspect of the new salary structure.

Chairman of the NLC in the state, Comrade Fabian Nwigbo, confirmed to The Nation in Enugu that civil servants went home with the new salary at the end of October while they now await conclusion of work on the consequential adjustment.

He said:”Now, what the committee is working on is the consequential adjustment and chart on the announced minimum wage.

“I believe everything will be ok soon.”

He said the NLC had reached out to government on  the plight of pensioners and  “I hope at the appropriate time he will address the request.”

Imo Govt, Labour close to agreement

Organized labour in Imo State is optimistic of reaching an agreement soon with the state government on the consequential adjustment of the minimum wage.

Chairman of the TUC  in the  state, Comrade Uchenna Great, said the conclusion of negotiation with government was caused by the foreign trip of Governor Hope Uzodimma.

He said:” organized labour had its own committee before the governor left… We met and discussed, the discussion centered on consequential adjustment.

“If both sides agree on the adjustment that will follow, we will come to an agreement and then sign, but both sides are waiting for the return of the governor.”

Comrade Uche Chigemezu, Imo State NLC Chairman, corroborated Great’s position, saying: “The state government has agreed to pay but we have not finalised on the matter.”

Why we couldn’t start payment of minimum wage in October – Gov Otti

Abia State governor, Alex Otti,  said the planned commencement of payment of the minimum wage in October failed to materialise because of a “computation error”.

But he said both sides have now reached “an amicable agreement” and payment will start at the end of this month.

The chairman of NLC in the state, Comrade Ogbonnaya Okoro, could not be reached.

Bayelsa tasks LGAs on revenue generation

The Bayelsa State government has warned local governments in the state to intensify their internal revenue generation effort to be able to cope with their financial obligations to their employees.

Deputy Governor Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo said in Yenagoa, the state capital that the councils must devise independent sources of revenue and desist from depending solely  on the  monthly federal allocations.

Receiving a delegation of   the state chapter of  the Nigerian Union of Pensioners (NUP), in his office, Ewhrudjakpo said it would be difficult for the councils to pay and sustain the new minimum wage if they continued to  completely depend on statutory allocations from Abuja.

“I have asked experts in that area to work out the new minimum wage to see what the local governments will be able to pay. I know that council workers will insist that they should be paid like their state counterparts,” he said.

“But we should know that the state government and local governments do not have the same level or sources of funding. How many of our local governments are able to generate N100 million in a  whole year? Just only  a few of them.

“As I said earlier, the details of what is going to cost each local government area must be worked out first because if we are not careful, our councils will go bankrupt.

“That is why I have told them to be very innovative and serious about generating revenue for the councils. There is nothing that stops you from collecting little money from people selling in the market. Or, collect licenses from boat, motorbike, keke operators. That’s not a crime. It is legitimate.”

He assured the retirees that government was working hard to settle all  pensioners who were inadvertently omitted in the payment of gratuities across board last year.

He also promised to make some effort to ensure that local government retirees have a share of the N7 billion the state government recently announced for the  payment of outstanding gratuities.

On the issue of upward review of monthly pensions to the retirees, he said such review would be based on the capacity of the local governments.

Negotiations on N70,000 minimum wage ongoing – Plateau NLC

Civil servants in Plateau State expect to start enjoying the new minimum wage by the end of this month.

The state Chairman of the NLC, Comrade Eugene Manji, told The Nation that negotiations with the state were  ongoing.

 “We are still  negotiating  with the government committee on the minimum wage,” he said.

“Nothing is concluded yet but we have gone far with the negotiation. And I hope that negotiations will be  concluded in the next few days so that  payment of  the minimum wage will commence this November.”

Kano civil servants too

Kano State civil servants are also hopeful that they will go home with the new salary this month.

Governor  Abba Yusuf  has already approved N71,000 as minimum wage.

Chairman of NLC in the state, Comrade Kabiru Inuwa, said the union was in negotiations with government on the payment of arrears and extension to retired workers.

“They (civil servants) will be paid their N71,000 minimum wage  this November,” he said.

“We are in negotiations over payment of arrears. For retirees, we are also on their matter. We are holding talks,” Inuwa said.

The NLC state chairman said there are some workers in the state whose pay is  as low as N5,000 but the union is negotiating to improve their wages.

“We are on top of all this,” he said.

Osun workers in limbo

Employees of the Osun State government are not sure of anything regarding the minimum wage despite assurances by agents of government that it will abide by the law on the matter.

The committee set up by the state government on consequential adjustment is still working, The Nation gathered in Osogbo.

 Unlike other state governors, Governor Ademola Adeleke has not announced how much the state government is willing to pay.

Chairman of the NLC in the state, Comrade Chris Arapasopo  could not be reached for comments.

[TheNation]

The Federal Government’s budget deficit has risen to 7.5 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product as of August 2024, reflecting a significant widening of the gap between government revenue and expenditure.

A member of the Central Bank of Nigeria Monetary Policy Committee, Muhammad Abdullahi, disclosed this in his personal statement at the 297th MPC meeting. The document was published on the website of the central bank.

This was as the CBN economic report revealed that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit surged to N4.53tn in the second quarter of 2024, up from N3.88tn in the previous quarter.

In simple terms, a fiscal deficit happens when a government’s spending exceeds its revenue from taxes and other sources. It means the government is spending more money than it’s bringing in.

Abdullahi said this development underscores the ongoing challenges the government faces in enhancing its revenue generation efforts.

It also signals a greater reliance on borrowing to finance the growing expenditure, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal sustainability and potential impacts on national debt levels.

Highlighting the challenges posed by the situation, the MPC member stated that the committee must remain proactive in dampening the likely consequences of the deficit, especially with the commencement of the new minimum wage payment.

He said, “The Federal Government’s fiscal operations resulted in a budget deficit of 7.6 per cent of GDP as of August 2024.

“Monetary policy must thus remain proactive in dampening the likely consequences of the deficit especially when the implementation of the new minimum wage gains traction.”

“The deficit could, however, narrow as ongoing efforts to enhance revenue generation and reduce government expenditure are expected to improve the fiscal outlook.

“The narrowing of the fiscal deficit will have positive implications for overall macroeconomic stability.”

Similarly, Senior Fellow and Director of the Africa Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution and member of the Central Bank of Nigeria Monetary Policy Committee, Aloysius Ordu, while expressing his views on fiscal policy, stated that challenges abound that are at odds with the CBN’s firm anti-inflationary stance.

“A review of the fiscal indicators for the first half of 2024 showed that FGN revenues under-performed, achieving only 37.9 per cent of the target, due largely to the deficit in FAAC receipts.

“Recurrent spending exceeded targets, largely due to debt service payments, while spending on the capital account continued to underperform. As of mid-2024, the overall fiscal deficit exceeded budget projections by over 85 per cent, emphasizing the need to re-prioritize spending in favour of much-needed capital projects. It also emphasizes the need for the CBN to avoid monetizing the deficit,” he stated.

Also, the Deputy Governor for Operations at the Central Bank of Nigeria, and member of the Central Bank of Nigeria Monetary Policy Committee, Emem Usoro, emphasised that “other pressure points 20 for price stability include, the widening fiscal deficit occasioned by fiscal stress from the revenue side, exchange rate fluctuations emanating from seasonal effects and supply constraints, and climatic factors which have exacerbated supply chain disruptions.”

Also speaking on the issue of revenue generation, the immediate past Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission and member of the Central Bank of Nigeria Monetary Policy Committee, Lamido Yuguda, stated that revenue generation remains a daunting challenge for the FGN.

“From January to June, the retained revenue showed a significant (33.31 per cent) improvement over the corresponding period in 2023, but fell 62.10 per cent short of the target for the period.”

“This low revenue base underscores the poor fiscal performance in the period, as provisional numbers show that the level of fiscal deficit at mid-year (January to June 2024) is already 91.94 per cent of the projected amount for 2024,’ he concluded.

In the economic report, the CBN said the deficit in the first six months saw a notable rise, and the federal government’s revenue remittance increased only marginally to N2.3tn.

This figure represents a 57.66 per cent increase from the first quarter but still falls 52.49 per cent short of the target for the period, prompting a heavy reliance on deficit financing.

The report also highlights that while the government gains from foreign exchange revenue due to naira devaluation, its overall expenditure expanded significantly to N6.83tn, driven largely by high-interest payments on loans and other financial obligations.

This marks a 27.79 per cent increase from the previous quarter, with recurrent expenditures dominating the spending.

The data shows that 89.7 per cent of the federal government’s expenditure was on recurrent costs, while capital and transfer payments accounted for just 3.66 per cent and 6.37 per cent, respectively.

[Punch]

The Independent National Electoral Commission INEC, says it is set to conduct a governorship election in Ondo state as scheduled for next Saturday November 16, 2024. The commission has also given firm assurances that all would be well. Whether or not people believe the electoral body is not easy to tell. In truth, whereas there are a few permanent optimists who would always look forward to the assurances ending in successful elections, there are at the same time sceptics who justifiably think otherwise. History teaches this latter group that the narratives currently coming out of INEC and the nation’s security agencies are exactly same as those of previous locations where the people ended up disappointed.

There is therefore no evidence that Nigeria’s subsisting electoral deficiencies will this time around vanish in Ondo state next Saturday. It is noteworthy that Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the ?INEC chair has personally visited the state in the last couple of days not just to ascertain the level of preparedness but also the status of the electoral tools as well as the processes and procedures lined up for the contest. But it was essentially a routine visit which he usually makes to every location just before voting day. In other words, the visit is incapable of ensuring that all will be well. In addition, all the promises made in the state last week at a stakeholders’ meeting concerning issues such as prompt deployment and early arrival of electoral personnel and materials were also made but not strictly kept in Edo state in September.

Perhaps, it is important to make the point that what INEC should prioritize now is how to deal with the devil in its electoral room which is the collation process. This is because if all electoral materials are fit for purpose and the process goes well, there is still the vexed issue of the general belief that votes no longer count in Nigeria? What this suggests, is that efforts ought to be made to have a transparent collation of votes. As this column suggested last week, it is time to put an end to the use of unauthorized collation venues and the forced recess during which time alleged manipulation of results takes place. Put differently, INEC has an obligation to ensure that results declared at polling centres are not different from those presented at local government areas and state level.

Part of what can make the collation process transparent is to allow all accredited observers and journalists to have access to the collation venues all through the process.  According to INEC, the coming Ondo governorship election would have “the largest number for any off-cycle governorship election in Nigeria.” Already accredited for the polls, are 3,554 observers from 111 domestic and international organisations consisting of “700 journalists from over 100 radio, television, newspaper, and online media organisations, with no less than 129 female journalists.” By accrediting such a large number of observers, journalists and indeed, party agents, INEC demonstrated its preparedness to follow international best practices. Unfortunately, during collation, some of the accredited observers and party agents are suddenly denied access.

Yet all party agents are identifiable with “accreditation tags bearing their names, photographs, and location of deployment as well as added QR code to the tags that can be read even from mobile phone applications.” What this alone suggests, is that it is not rocket science for the commission to use the Ondo election to correct past mistakes. Part of INEC’s dilemma is that insider abuses during elections have become prevalent. Speaking in Akure last week, the INEC chair warned all the staff of the commission that “there will be consequences for dereliction of duty in any way or form.” The posture of the commission does not portray that of ‘charity beginning at home.’ With more than one month after the Edo election, we are yet to hear of the number of staff penalized for their conduct which embarrassed the commission.

INEC is either unwilling to penalize staff in line with the reluctance of the political class to allow for the emergence of an electoral offences tribunal or probably shy of washing her dirty linen in public – a strategy that is clearly ill advisable. Of course, publicising disciplinary measures against erring staff can to some extent boost public confidence in the electoral body. In fairness to INEC, many actors in an election process are hard to manage because they are not INEC staff.

For instance, it is obviously not easy for INEC to manage law enforcement operatives deployed to election duties. Consequently, vote buying which security agencies condone would be difficult to stop. There is also the fact that all the major political parties are involved in it, just as voters themselves look forward to it especially now that the nation’s economy is exceedingly tight. In which case, it is persuasive to imagine that vote buying would more likely persist in the coming election.

In many agencies, lobbying for deployment to election duties has reportedly become more intense than the struggle to be posted to checkpoints on the highways. Elections now provide opportunities to help favourite staff to attain huge commercial gains. In such an all-comers-game, what now plays out is the formation of cartels which share gains to members of each cartel. This is a worrisome development which INEC is poorly equipped to stop. Understandably, many stakeholders who attended the forum convened by INEC in Akure last week to reach some consensus on how to attain free and fair elections appealed more to the police than INEC not to compromise next Saturday’s governorship election in Ondo state.

The inability to have a level playing field during elections is another problem. The opposition political parties are more bothered about the growing phenomenon of ‘federal power’ during Nigerian elections. Those who think that INEC assurances of credible elections will neutralize federal power need to think again. To start with, nothing has been done about the presence of partisan commissioners in INEC. They got in because efforts to invalidate their nominations were blocked by members of the ruling party of the relevant committee in the National Assembly. Such commissioners having been brought in for an unpatriotic purpose are more likely to meet the purpose for which they were nominated. The greater pain here is that any ruling party would act like the current one if the roles are reversed.

The opposition parties that are deeply worried about the presence of commissioner Oluwatoyin Babalola in Ondo INEC certainly have more reasons than the argument that she is the equivalent of an indigene of the state. The electoral body has no business engaging in the debate for or against her. Instead, there is wisdom in recognising that if stakeholders are opposed to a particular electoral commissioner, it is better to redeploy the official to another state. It does not mean that the official has been found guilty of anything; all that needs to be appreciated is that apprehension by team players that a referee may not be impartial during a game is enough reason to redeploy the official and establish beyond reasonable doubt that like Caeser’s wife every electoral commissioner is above board.

INEC itself must be prepared to play the game by its rules. The nation is aware that the commission is in a position to stop its election results from being controversial. The results declared at the polling centre being the only one that represents the sacred choice of the people, should never be experimented upon. What is more, nothing should be done to give the impression that anything is shrouded in secrecy. If next Saturday’s election in Ondo state is truly one where the electoral body is determined to correct past mistakes, no room should be given for the alleged printing of result forms with same serial numbers just as there is no need to exclude duly accredited persons from certain segments of the process.

The healthy television debate between the APC and PDP candidates the other day underscored the fact that Ondo politicians have come of age. INEC can show similar maturity by playing down on the publicity of cosmetic ceremonies like the arrival of sensitive or non-sensitive materials, stakeholders’ meetings, peace accords and indeed LIVE transmission of the declaration of controversial results. Instead, it should enthrone a transparent collation of votes. Here is hoping that INEC would prove her critics wrong next Saturday.

At its recent meeting in Isanya Ogbo, the Afenifere was piqued by my article titled “Is Tinubu settling scores.”

Though the meeting’s communique showed the article was slightly misinterpreted, it was nonetheless heartwarming. At a time when taboos are falling into disuse, activists are becoming political mercenaries, and the common good has become nobody’s priority, Afenifere’s resilience is noteworthy. In standing against the Yoruba bias Tinubu has manifested, Afenifere has shown that its chronic allergy against Fulani hegemony was not a ruse.

In a country where elected officials and institutions trivialise accountability, the Afenifere deserves commendation. Perhaps, though divided and declining, the Afenifere hasn’t lost its soul. That’s a consolation to all of us who witnessed Afenifere in its prime. In a country where other cultural organizations are rabidly ethnocentric and susceptible to money politics, the Afenifere must be commended for abiding altruism.

That’s something, even though its influence has tragically waned. In a country where critical institutions have lost the stamina to aspire to glory and have degenerated into caricatures of their old selves , the Afenifere perhaps deserves our collective sympathy. Though its political decline might have been partly self inflicted, it still has principled leaders and hasn’t sold out. They have stuck to their principles, lost followership, relevance and authority, but refused to be cowed or bought. That’s something. The politics of the fourth republic has been too ruthlessly transactional for cultural organizations to play deciding roles, but the Afenifere has hung in there.

I have hesitated to treat Afenifere as splintered, ageing, disjointed and incapable of any consensus. Because of my abiding admiration for that institution, I still regard all the major leaders fondly, as authentic, particularly when they are standing social justice, peace and progress. I have therefore resisted the temptation to categorize the categorical rejection of Tinubu’s tribalism as political vendetta by the Pa Adebanjo group which didn’t support Tinubu’s presidential ambition and has never shown admiration for his politics.

Regardless of the rife insinuations of envy and the above mentioned caveats notwithstanding, in the words of Soyinka, the man must have died in any Afenifere leader or faction that stays silent in the face of the glaring repudiation of Afenifere core values of equity and inclusion by Tinubu or anyone else who claims Afenifere. So on this measure, the Pa Adebanjo faction must be regarded as the only ’living’ faction.

The other faction and the leaders must speak up or own up.

In ‘Is Tinubu Settling Scores’, I had wondered why Tinubu who rode to power in 1999 on the back of the Afenifere could become so disdainful of the cherished Afenifere that paved his way to power. Despite Pa Adebanjo’s disavowal, Tinubu still claims Afenifere. But why hasn’t he gunned for the greater good for the greater number by enthroning probity and transparency in government business? This isn’t just about the filth of the Lagos-Calabar road project. It isn’t just about the relentless allocation of the choicest and most powerful jobs to the Yoruba, concentrating power in the Yoruba without bothering about the feelings of the others groups.

It’s beyond that. It’s the utter disregard for decency and common sense. It’s about the myopic prioritization of self or tribe above the collective that points to an abject absence of purposefulness. Why does Tinubu appear more interested in building a Yoruba dynasty rather than an equitable and just political society in Nigeria? What is his motivation?

How did an Afenifere man become an Emilokan or Yorubalokan champion?

That was the meat of the article. But in the eyes of the Afenifere, earcitel was mischeivous because they percevied an artbiuoitnovfciaroiusailbytili to them for Tinubu’s ethical waywardness.
Again, I understand the urgency of the group, particularly the Pa Adebsnjo faction, to wring
their hands. In their words, Tinubu in 1999, was a wolf in sheep’s clothing and he has done everything to cannibalize the organization since 2003. I’m paraphrasing the Afenifere. So they felt compelled to restate the values of the organization, label Tinubu as feral and invite me to join their struggle.

In the days of Ajasin, Adesanya and Ige, Afenifere was a compelling organization. I admired them from a distance. Whatever they said was truth and justice. Their wide moral appeal cut through the breadth of the country and infected their Yoruba people with pride and other peoples with hope. They stood boldly for fairness and justice. Their command and control lines were clear and decent. Those memories now fill with harrowing nostalgia.

When politics returned in the fourth republic all the rivalries that had been hidden by the presence of a common enemy came to the fore. Afenifere tried to metamorphose. Their political vehicle was the AD. Though Afenifere had an early chance to produce a president, it wasted time and the military developed other ideas. That was how northern consensus solidified around Obasanjo. Afenifere clinched almost all the seats in the Southwest. Obasanjo, their kinsman, but who wasn’t part of them took the presidency. One of those whom the Afenifere made governor in 1999 was Tinubu. Once political office holders took the keys to the treasuries, the old dynamics became outdated.

I never intended to make Afenifere carry Tinubu’s cross. Not even as Simon the Cyrene. My article didn’t foist any responsibility on them for Tinubu’s startling parochialism. Their political predicament is regrettable. Had I intended mischief, I could have portrayed Afenifere as being negligent in recommending a ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’ to the people in 1999. But I didn’t do that. I voted Tinubu in 2023. So am I also liable? Rather than use a broad brush and paint the impression that Afenifere perhaps didn’t do due diligence before imposing Tinubu on Lagos, the article only politely urged Tinubu to remember his roots.

Tinubu’s reversion to ethnic chauvinism is perplexing. The blame is Tinubu’s. Had I intended to be a little naughty, I could have insinuated that Afenifere despite its moral claims, perhaps offered a questionable political upbringing to its protege which is now manifesting in this delinquency of brazen Yoruba bias. But I love Afenifere. Its penchant for justice and fight against oppression helped mould my political ideas. If I had intended devilry as they claimed, I could have argued that perhaps Afenifere taught Tinubu political opportunism rather than virtue.

After all, didn’t we all witness envy and rivalry and backstabbing at the De Rovans? But I didn’t because despite all those internecine squabbles, Afenifere had moral appeal. My article was benign. I didn’t push the point that though Tinubu passed through the Yar’adua school, which many regard as the ultimate school of political expediency rather than moral ideals, of political smash and grab instead of values, the school was noted for inclusion.

That would have made this tribalism, if it was learnt, more likely an Afenifere than Yaradua trait. Yet Afenifere’s moral rectitude cannot support relentless tribalism. My point was that anyone who passed through the Afenifere crucible, whom the Afenifere found worthy to be governor, shouldn’t retain the capacity to relapse into wanton clannishness . He should retain some scruples.

In that communique Afenifere denied Tinubu more than three times. They said Tinubu doesn’t swim like the Afenifere. Perhaps if he did, he wouldn’t be building a private political dynasty that privileges his business partners and cronies. He would be self sacrificing like a true social democrat. They said Tinubu doesn’t walk like Afenifere. Perhaps if he did, he would have been more people-centred. His EFCC would be impotent against his indicted ministers. He wouldn’t opt for a bloated cabinet peopled with crooked politicians while preaching austerity and taxation to the masses. He wouldn’t spend his holidays in Europe, while promoting Made-in-Nigeria and bemoaning the predicament of the fallen naira.

The Afenifere said Tinubu doesn’t quack like Afenifere. If he did, he wouldn’t taunt and diminish political opponents, while preaching national unity. He would visit Atiku and Obi and share his vision with them. He would reform the courts and INEC and save the country from the scourge of rotten elections. He wouldn’t sell Sovereign National Conference for so long and forget True Federalism to pursue local government autonomy when in power.

The communique described Tinubu in roguish terms. I don’t agree with all the submissions. I don’t agree that Tinubu was a sheep in wolf’s clothing as they claimed. But it appears Tinubu didn’t imbibe some of the most important values of Afenifere. And perhaps he only railed against Hausa Fulani domination at the time because it left him and his Yoruba tribe in the fringes of the power equation.

The Afenifere concluded that Tinubu’s main agenda is one party dictatorship. That’s interesting. But Tinubu’s baffling concentration of power in the hands of the Yoruba supports that ridiculous conclusion.

“A society can be judged by the way it treats its children” – Nelson Mandela, 1913-2013.

Few Nigerians now harbour any hope that this country would produce a Mandela among its present crop of old politicians. And, if the young member of the House of Representatives, from Abia State, exhibiting delirium of power, as well as all the young Ministers, just sacked, represent the next generation of power seekers, then, we might have to wait until those in nursery school grow up.

UNPRECEDENTED DETENTION AND PROSECUTION OF CHILDREN

 “The over-zealous man, doing his duty, will, sooner or later, pay his dues to the Devil.” That observation made in the thirteenth century by a philosopher summarises why President Bola Tinubu found himself engaging in damage control. A lot of irreparable damage has already been done to the images of Nigeria, the Federal Government, Tinubu, the Nigeria Police and the judiciary the minute the pictures of those children slumping in Abuja hit the internet.

Messages and calls came to me from four continents; from lawyers, retired justices and human rights advocates asking, among other questions, if Nigeria has decent people running its government. The world has witnessed all sorts of trials by absolutely atrocious and murderous regimes; we have also had two Kangaroo military trials staged by the Abacha junta. In every case, as Mark Twain, 1835-1910, had remarked, it was always a matter of “Are you going to hang [them] anyhow, and try them afterwards?” The accused persons were never going to have a fair trial; because “power tends to corrupt; and absolute power corrupts absolutely” according to Lord Acton, 1834-1902.

But, the world has never seen so many children in an adult court; charged with, of all things, treason. Abuse of power against the most vulnerable and powerless human beings had never been more on display. All the kids have several things in common. They are all out of school, illiterate, malnourished and in rags. Most of them are probably homeless and would not know where to find their parents. They were on the streets when the protests started; they were not among the organisers. To them, what was going on was probably entertainment helping to break the drab monotony of their lives.

So, they joined the procession to have some fun – as kids in Lagos would spontaneously follow a masquerade passing by; without thinking about it. Interestingly enough, the very poor children were arrested in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Gombe, Jos and Katsina. None of them could possibly have a GSM set to call others in the same state; let alone, those in Gombe calling Katsina. So, there could be no collusion or conspiracy. Even those arrested in each state might never have met until that day and that hour.

That brings up a question: who were the security officers who decided that three or four children waving Russian flags, thrust into their hands by adults, constituted a threat to President Tinubu? None of those we saw on television could pronounce the word REVOLUTION even if asked to at gun point. What then is the basis for arrest and detention? Another question: why were they not tried in the states where the crimes were committed?

Why bring all of them to Abuja, far from home, if not to satisfy the sadistic instincts of those who took them there? There is more to be said later about the competence and character of all those responsible for the arrest and detention of the kids for 93 days in the first instance. Apparently, the Inspector General of Police, IGP, approved everything. But, the IGP would not have gone far without a complaisant justice.

MAKING HISTORY THE WRONG WAY

 “It takes years to make a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you will do things differently” – Warren Buffett, 2022.

For 93 days, the detention of so many children under horrible conditions (it has to be horrible because neither the IGP nor the justice would want to keep his children there) was a best kept secret from the public – until their tormentors decided to stage a judicial charade with the kids as the main actors. Not trained in Nollywood production techniques, the prosecutor and the justice messed up the script. Comedy turned to tragedy when four of the kids slumped; and would have died with cameras from global media recording everything. The whole world witnessed the horrors in living colour. In less than five minutes, the reputations of the police and judiciary were ruined forever.

Irrespective of how long Justice Egwuatu had been on the bench, and how long he remains there, justices from four continents think he had soiled the bench. The bail conditions imposed on the victims of this injustice betrayed the hidden agenda to deny them bail and hold them perpetually in detention. Who can take a look at any of those kids and conclude that they can raise N10, 000 bail; not to talk of N10 million? Additionally, can anybody seriously expect any Federal Civil Servant, regardless of grade or level, to risk his/her career by bailing kids who are probably homeless even in their states?

Bail refusal was disingenuously wrapped around bail conditions impossible to meet for all the defendants. Unfortunately for the battered reputation of the Nigerian judiciary, the only person deceived by that subterfuge was the justice. The whole world saw clearly the intention to keep the kids in horrible custody conditions indefinitely. The Nigeria Police, perennially held in contempt, went a notch downwards. Try as he may, the prosecutor could not convince the global court of public opinion, as well as jurists, that he was in the right court, at the right time and prosecuting the right case. How did he expect to interrogate kids who never went to school on treason? He might as well have been prepared to talk to walls. Whoever handed him that case to prosecute must have achieved the intended consequence of ridiculing him. They got more than they bargained for. He has attained notoriety globally. His name will never be erased from the internet for as long as people inhabit this planet.

PRESIDENT TINUBU TO THE RESCUE

“There are times when a leader must must move out ahead of the flock; go off in a new direction; confident that he is leading his people the right way” – Nelson Mandela, 1913-2013, VBQ p 124.

With all the relevant officials of government tied up in their self-imposed judicial problems, while Nigeria’s image was again being dented worldwide, it was left to President Tinubu to set us off in a new direction; to restore sanity to the judicial system and to engage in damage control. His intervention was effective and face-saving for all concerned. Only God knows what would have followed otherwise. I grant the political adversaries their right to play down the gesture.

One commentator pointed to the sudden appearance of the British Foreign Affairs Minister in Aso Rock on the day the announcement was made as proof that Tinubu was prodded by the European Community and the Commonwealth nations to act. I have no evidence of that. But, the EU and the rest of the world tried in vain to convince Abacha to release Obasanjo. So, we must give Tinubu the benefit of doubt; that he acted based on his own conviction. There’s reason for this assumption.

“Idealists in politics lack a sense of reality; and a politician must be a realist above all” – Henry Miller, VBQ p 192.

Tinubu is perhaps the first real politician we have had as President. All the other Presidents, from Shagari to Buhari, were imposed by others. Shagari was not a presidential aspirant in 1978. A deadlocked convention forced leaders of the NPN to turn to a non-aspirant. Obasanjo was the candidate of the four Generals – Babangida, Abdulsalami, Danjuma and Aliyu Gusau. He in turn imposed Yar’Adua; who was really not interested on account of ill-health. Jonathan inherited the Presidency without which he could not have won in 2011. Buhari, after three failed attempts, was invited by Tinubu to return to political war. Only Tinubu plotted his journey to Aso Rock on his own and confidently announced EMILOKAN. Everybody, including me, who thought he was joking, has become a believer eventually.

While the IGP, Justice Egwuatu and the Minister of Justice were in a quandary regarding how to proceed, the politician with his uncanny sense of danger moved to diffuse the tension. What the officials failed to observe was obvious to Tinubu. Another day in court with the kids would have triggered the ‘Mother of all Protests’ – which the security forces might find difficult to contain. One group was planning to get three lawyers to represent each of the children and turn the trial into a circus. Tinubu was right to stop it.